2025-03-11 Visa Inc. (V) Wolfe Research FinTech Forum (Transcript)

Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) Wolfe Research FinTech Forum March 11, 2025 10:50 AM ET

Company Participants

Christopher Suh - Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Darrin Peller - Wolfe Research

Christopher Suh

[Starts Abruptly] [突然开始]

It was obviously also the first one with Ryan now as CEO, myself certainly new as CFO. And as you looked across the leadership -- all the presenters for the day, many of them are Visa veterans, but many of them are doing the new role. Leading a new business that they want to leading in 2020. So we thought, we would take the opportunity to give a pretty comprehensive update.

这显然也是 Ryan 担任首席执行官后的首次会议，我本人作为首席财务官也是新上任。当你纵观整个领导团队——当天所有的演讲者，其中许多都是 Visa 的资深人士，但他们中的不少人都在担任新的职务，领导着他们在 2020 年希望领导的新业务。因此，我们认为应该借此机会进行一次相当全面的更新。

Darrin Peller

Okay. 好的。

Christopher Suh

We feel good about how the day went. We shared a lot of information. This is actually my first time now out speaking, since that Investor Day so we have a lot a really good conversations with investors, but maybe I’ll give you a handful of sort of reflection I guess. We did do a lot. We gave a lot of information. I think we shared with you progress on a number of fronts.

我们对当天的情况感到满意，我们分享了大量信息。这实际上是我自投资者日以来首次公开发言，因此我们与投资者进行了许多非常好的交流。我想我可以分享一些感想。我们确实做了很多工作，提供了大量信息。我认为我们向大家展示了多个方面取得的进展。

Four things that I would point to. One is, we took the time to really articulate our view on the addressable opportunity still in front of us, which is significant across consumer payments, across value-added services, across what we had previously called new flows, now rebranded as commercial and money movement solutions. So across both -- all three growth pillars, very significant opportunity.

我想指出四点。第一，我们花时间清晰地阐明了我们对未来可把握机遇的看法，这些机遇在消费者支付、增值服务以及我们之前称为新流量、现已重新命名为商业和资金流动解决方案的领域中都非常显著。因此，在这三个增长支柱中，都存在非常重大的机遇。

Two, we gave an update on our strategy, our strategy around consumer payments, value-added services, new flows, card and non-card and gave very specific strategies by each of those pillars, but how we're going to go after that addressable opportunity.

第二，我们更新了我们的战略，包括围绕消费者支付、增值服务、新型支付流、卡类和非卡类支付的战略，并针对每个支柱提出了非常具体的策略，以及我们如何把握这些潜在的机会。

Three is we gave a lot of disclosure around the state of the business, the sizing of the various businesses, the yields across various businesses, how we're doing market by market, showing you sort of how we do on cash-rich markets or in more developed markets, and we were pretty transparent about that.

第三，我们对业务状况、各项业务规模、不同业务的收益率、各个市场的表现进行了大量披露，向大家展示了我们在现金充裕市场或较发达市场的表现，我们在这方面相当透明。

And then the fourth thing, of course, we sort of wrapped it all together into a growth framework that we thought made sense. Clicking into that a little bit, just to hit some of the high points. This is like Investor Day in a 30-second summary. In consumer payments, $23 trillion addressable opportunity still in front of us, cash, ACH, wire, other form of domestic schemes, other forms of less effective. That's more than twice the current PV that we have today with Visa, and we shared a number of strategies to go after that.

第四点当然是我们将所有内容整合到一个我们认为合理的增长框架中。稍微深入一点，简单强调几个重点，这就像是投资者日活动的 30 秒摘要。在消费者支付领域，我们面前仍有 23 万亿美元的潜在市场机会，包括现金、自动清算所（ACH）、电汇、其他国内支付方案以及其他效率较低的支付方式。这一市场规模是 Visa 目前支付量（PV）的两倍以上，我们也分享了一些针对这一市场的战略。

In CMS, $200 trillion. That's a number we shared before, but we got pretty specific about what we're doing around Visa Direct and B2B to go after that opportunity and VAS. We've probably shared the most new disclosures around VAS, shared with you four, the four portfolios, each over $1 billion, each growing at very healthy rates and the very significant addressable market that we have available there.

在 CMS 领域，有 200 万亿美元。这是我们之前分享过的数字，但我们非常具体地说明了我们围绕 Visa Direct 和 B2B 所做的工作，以抓住这一机会以及增值服务（VAS）。我们可能分享了最多的关于 VAS 的新信息，向你们介绍了四个业务组合，每个组合规模都超过 10 亿美元，且增长速度非常健康，我们在这一领域拥有非常庞大的潜在市场。

And then we wrapped it all up, foundational elements, our brand, the power of our network, the security, the reliability of the network, how we're executing from a sales and market standpoint. And so we put that all together, we showed off some products. We had a showcase demonstrating our product innovation as well. And so altogether, put that together. I think it was a good day. We've had good conversations.

然后我们进行了总结，包括基础要素、我们的品牌、网络的强大能力、网络的安全性和可靠性，以及我们在销售和市场方面的执行情况。我们将这些内容整合在一起，并展示了一些产品。我们还通过展示活动演示了我们的产品创新。总的来说，我认为这是很成功的一天，我们进行了很好的交流。

A lot of interest in the value-added services and CMS disclosures and the state of the business. You asked about sort of -- if I would call out one other thing in terms of the post Investor Day conversation that has been around the notion of Visa as a service. So Visa as a service is an evolution of our network and platform strategy. It's really where we've unbundled the Visa stack, and we've made many of our class-leading components available to a broader set of customers. I think that's an interesting evolution of our network, and there's been good conversations there as well.

人们对增值服务、CMS 披露以及业务状况表现出很大兴趣。你刚才问到——如果要我指出投资者日之后讨论中的另一件事，那就是围绕“Visa 即服务”的概念。“Visa 即服务”是我们网络和平台战略的一种演进。实际上，我们将 Visa 的技术栈进行了拆分，并将我们许多领先的组件提供给更广泛的客户群。我认为这是我们网络的一种有趣演进，这方面也有很多积极的讨论。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Q - Darrin Peller 问 - Darrin Peller

It was nice to come away from that day with a company of your size, five years later and still having that, call it, 10% or 9% to 12% algorithm from a top line standpoint in terms of what you can achieve from a growth rate standpoint, medium term, which just impressive, given the magnitude and the size of the business. But look, before we go further down the down the focus on the Investor Day and key takeaways in the strategy. Just a quick update on recent trends, given so much noise from a macro standpoint, both policy-driven and some just economic questions.

很高兴看到像你们这样规模的公司，在五年后依然能够保持从收入角度来看约 10%或 9%到 12%的增长算法，从中期增长率的角度来看，这确实令人印象深刻，尤其考虑到业务的规模和体量。不过，在我们进一步深入探讨投资者日的重点内容和战略要点之前，先快速更新一下近期趋势，毕竟宏观层面存在很多干扰因素，包括政策驱动因素以及一些经济方面的问题。

And so your recent quarter and your -- even January 28 data obviously showed some decent trends accelerating. I think you accelerated actually about 1 point even into January across the U.S., cross-border international was still strong. So maybe just help us understand what you're seeing in the state of the consumer now, the health of the consumer. Any comment you can give us on recent trends even since then would be helpful.

因此，你们最近一个季度以及截至 1 月 28 日的数据明显显示出一些良好的趋势正在加速。我认为你们在美国的增长甚至在 1 月份又加快了大约 1 个百分点，跨境国际业务依然强劲。因此，请帮助我们了解一下你们目前所观察到的消费者状况和消费者的健康状况。如果你们能对自那之后的最新趋势做一些评论，将会很有帮助。

Christopher Suh

Great. Yes. It is a little noisy out there admittedly. But maybe then the best place to then start is to just like sort of try to be as clear as possible. Let's go back to what I said in the January earnings call, which is a little over a month ago, maybe 1.5 months ago. As you pointed out, we were coming off of a strong first quarter, where we saw our drivers performed very well. And through the first four weeks of January, through January 28, we commented on our earnings call that in the U.S. payment volumes in the month of January were pretty consistent with the month of December, although we did point out that January was benefiting from severe weather, a little easier comp from a year ago.

很好。是的，外部环境确实有些嘈杂。但或许最好的方式是尽可能清晰地说明。让我们回到我在一月份财报电话会议上所说的内容，那是一个多月前，大概一个半月前。正如你所指出的，我们刚刚经历了强劲的第一季度，我们的驱动因素表现非常出色。在截至 1 月 28 日的 1 月前四周，我们在财报电话会议上提到，美国 1 月份的支付交易量与 12 月份基本持平，尽管我们也指出，1 月份受益于恶劣天气，以及与去年同期相比基数略低的因素。

Since then, through the month of February, now we have seen U.S. payment volumes moderate a bit. That was as expected, as we talked about as well in our earnings call, because of the impact -- primarily the biggest single driver being the impact of the leap year, the extra day that we got in February of last year for leap year. And so quarter-to-date, if you put that together through February, U.S. payment volumes down slightly from Q1 largest driver being the day benefit from leap year, a quarter ago. Those trends have, if I think that outside the U.S., whether it's transactions, cross-border or other key markets, those dynamics have largely kind of been consistent as well.

自那以来，截至二月份，我们看到美国支付交易量有所放缓。这在我们的财报电话会议中也提到过，属于预期之内，主要原因是去年二月闰年多出一天所带来的影响。因此，截至二月的本季度迄今，美国支付交易量较第一季度略有下降，主要原因是上一季度闰年额外一天的影响。从美国以外的情况来看，无论是交易量、跨境交易还是其他关键市场，这些趋势基本也保持了一致。

It's also worth pointing out that in the month of March, the timing of Easter could have an impact. Easter was in March a year ago. It's late April this year. And so the timing -- relative timing between March and April could have an impact as well.

还值得指出的是，在三月份，复活节的时间可能会产生影响。去年复活节在三月，今年则在四月下旬。因此，三月和四月之间的相对时间也可能产生影响。

And then maybe the final thing, just reflecting again, back to what I said in January, from a revenue perspective, given the strong underlying drivers, we said Q2 revenue growth -- net revenue growth is expected to be pretty similar to Q1 with two notable exceptions. One, leap year, which I just talked about; and two, with the stronger U.S. dollar, the FX headwind would be about 1.5 points greater than in Q1. And so those are the sort of the two big differences. Otherwise, the two quarters we indicated at that time should look relatively similar.

最后一点，再次回顾一下我一月份所说的，从收入角度来看，鉴于强劲的基本驱动因素，我们表示第二季度的收入增长（净收入增长）预计将与第一季度非常相似，但有两个明显的例外：一是我刚才提到的闰年因素；二是由于美元走强，外汇带来的不利影响将比第一季度高出约 1.5 个百分点。因此，这两个因素是主要差异所在。除此之外，我们当时指出的这两个季度应该看起来相对类似。

Obviously, there's still a few weeks left to go. There's -- as you started in your question, there's a little bit of uncertainty whether it's macro or inflation concerns or whatever the case might be, we'll continue to focus on the things we can execute and control, and we'll see how the rest of the quarter plays out.

显然，还有几周的时间。正如你在问题中提到的，目前存在一些不确定性，无论是宏观经济还是通胀担忧或其他情况，我们将继续专注于我们能够执行和控制的事情，看看本季度剩余时间的发展情况。

Darrin Peller

Okay. So it sounds like -- I mean, you're calling out obviously the February impact from leap year, you're calling out what could be, obviously, the timing on Easter being an impact. I mean, outside of that, the consumer sounds, is it similar to what you'd expect?

好的。那么听起来——我的意思是，你明确提到了闰年对二月份的影响，也明确提到了复活节时间可能带来的影响。除此之外，消费者的情况听起来是否与你的预期相似？

Christopher Suh

Well, as I just shared in terms of -- as it's reflected in our volume it's kind of played out so far, as through the month of February, as we had anticipated, leap year being the biggest single driver of the differential from, I'd say, Q4 -- or Q1 to Q2.

正如我刚才所提到的，这一点已反映在我们的交易量中，到目前为止，直到二月份的情况与我们预期的一致，其中闰年是造成第一季度到第二季度差异的最大单一因素。

Darrin Peller

Okay. Chris, we're getting a lot of questions on inflation potential and what it could be for the mean for the business. So maybe just remind us a bit, if you can on how sensitive you've seen consumers to the inflation expectations. And more importantly than that, I mean, just how inflation impacts your business? Obviously, there's the volume-based aspect of it and then there's the demand aspect of it.

好的。Chris，我们收到了很多关于通胀潜力及其对业务可能意味着什么的问题。也许你可以稍微提醒我们一下，你观察到消费者对通胀预期的敏感程度如何。更重要的是，通胀究竟如何影响你们的业务？显然，这其中既有基于交易量的因素，也有需求方面的因素。

Christopher Suh

Yes. Inflation, it's hard to tell. The real answer is it's sort of hard to tell what's happening today as we've seen higher inflation over the last several quarters as well. You've seen in the reported volumes, volumes have been -- there's been variability in quarters. It's impacted our average ticket sizes as you've seen in the U.S., the average ticket sizes have trended -- had been through the course of FY '24, below year-over-year, down year-over-year, but that had been improving throughout the course of the year, and some of that may have been related to inflationary aspects.

是的。通货膨胀，这很难判断。真实情况是，目前很难明确判断，因为过去几个季度我们也看到了较高的通胀水平。你们也从报告的交易量中看到，交易量在各个季度存在波动。这影响了我们的平均交易金额，正如你们在美国所看到的，2024 财年期间平均交易金额同比有所下降，但全年呈现逐步改善趋势，其中部分可能与通胀因素有关。

But it also -- it's a basket of goods, as you know, in our payment volume. And so it really has to -- it really depends on sort of the mix of the different categories of spend. It's -- there's no direct correlation. I wish I could give you sort of an algorithm that says, X equals Y, but it really just depends on which categories we're seeing. And overall, what we saw through the last cycle of inflation is that the consumer remained relatively resilient through all of that. And so we're not macroeconomists, but we continue to be data-driven from that standpoint. And we'll just share with you as we see it, when we see it in the data.

但正如你所知，我们的支付量中包含的是一篮子商品。因此，这实际上取决于不同消费类别的组合情况，并不存在直接的相关性。我希望能给你一个明确的算法，比如 X 等于 Y，但实际上这取决于我们观察到的具体消费类别。总体而言，在上一轮通胀周期中，我们看到消费者在整个过程中表现出相对的韧性。因此，我们并非宏观经济学家，但我们会继续以数据为导向。当我们在数据中看到相关情况时，我们会及时与你分享。

Darrin Peller

Okay. Okay. Another key driver obviously is cross-border, right? It's one of the most important variables for your business model. And so if you could just revisit what you're seeing. I mean, obviously, it's been holding up extremely well. So is e-com actually for that matter. So cross-border e-com, regular travel cross-border, what are you embedding in your outlook from a cross-border standpoint? And maybe just help us understand what's driving that strength?

好的。好的。另外一个关键驱动力显然是跨境业务，对吧？这是你们商业模式中最重要的变量之一。因此，能否再谈谈你们目前观察到的情况？显然，这方面表现一直非常强劲，电子商务也是如此。那么，从跨境电子商务、常规旅行跨境业务的角度来看，你们在展望中纳入了哪些因素？或许可以帮助我们理解一下推动这种强劲表现的原因是什么？

Christopher Suh

Yes, cross-border has been sort of a strength. It was a strength pre-pandemic. It was -- after going through the valley, it was in a sort of a major strength post-pandemic, and it's continued to normalize a bit with travel as we've all seen in the data. As you pointed out, in this last quarter, 16% cross -- in Q1, 16% total volume growth cross-border -- total cross-border volume. And it was actually the same growth in travel, cross-border travel and cross-border e-commerce, both at 16%. That wasn't always the case.

是的，跨境业务一直是我们的优势之一。在疫情前就是优势，经历了低谷后，在疫情后更成为一个主要优势，随着旅行的恢复，正如我们在数据中所看到的，这一优势也在持续回归正常化。正如你所指出的，上个季度，即第一季度，跨境总交易量增长了 16%。实际上，跨境旅行和跨境电子商务的增长率都是 16%。但情况并非一直如此。

And in fact, if you go, again, pre-pandemic e-commerce with a smaller share of the business and growing a little bit faster than travel. In Q4, in fact, even before this last Q1, e-commerce had grown at 15%. So that's been more of the steady grower and travel had dipped down to 12% before we saw the acceleration into the first quarter.

事实上，如果回顾疫情前，电子商务在业务中的占比较小，但增长速度略快于旅游业。在第四季度，实际上甚至在最近的第一季度之前，电子商务的增长率已达到 15%。因此电子商务的增长更为稳定，而旅游业在我们看到第一季度加速之前曾一度下降至 12%。

So that's -- it continues to be a strength in terms of sustainability and what we have embedded into our expectations. I don't guide on cross-border travel numbers specifically. Travel, in particular, is kind of inherently hard to predict, especially in different geos and different corridors. But at the start of the year, I did indicate what was embedded in our planned guidance for the year.

因此，这在可持续性方面仍然是我们的优势，并已纳入我们的预期。我不会具体指导跨境旅行的数据。尤其是旅行，本质上就很难预测，特别是在不同的地区和不同的通道。但在年初时，我确实说明了我们年度计划指引中所包含的内容。

We said, hey, the Q4 trends are basically what we've assumed throughout FY '25. That's the planning assumption that we used. Q1 came in a little better than that, and then we've kind of extrapolated that into the Q2, what was embedded into the Q2 guide. We'll have to see how the second-half of the year plays out.

我们表示，第四季度的趋势基本上就是我们在 2025 财年全年所假设的情况。这是我们采用的规划假设。一季度表现略好于预期，我们在第二季度的指引中也大致延续了这一趋势。至于下半年的情况如何，我们还需拭目以待。

Maybe the final comment then is then sustainability of that. Two things I'd point to. One is the mix, we talked about e-commerce and travel, well pre-pandemic, e-commerce, again, the higher growing portion of it was about one-third of total cross-border volumes. Today, it's about 40%. And so just the mix of the faster-growing piece of the component of cross-border is a net benefit if things continue the way they are.

最后一点评论可能是关于这种趋势的可持续性。我想指出两点：第一是结构，我们谈到了电子商务和旅游，在疫情前，电子商务作为增长较快的部分约占跨境交易总量的三分之一。如今，这一比例约为 40%。因此，如果情况继续保持现状，跨境交易中增长更快的部分所占比例的变化本身就是一个净利好。

可能跟各个国家越来越封闭有关，原来可以本地经营的品牌不能本地经营了。

And then the second thing is, it is broad-based, which is cross corridors. So put it Asia aside for a second. LAC, EMEA, Europe and the U.S. in and out, travel has continued to be strong, growing faster than domestic. That's -- all things equal, broad-based strength is better than narrow in terms of durability.

其次，它的增长基础广泛，跨越多个地区。暂且不谈亚洲，拉丁美洲、欧洲中东非洲地区、欧洲和美国之间的出入境旅行持续强劲，增长速度超过国内旅行。在其他条件相同的情况下，广泛的增长基础在持久性方面优于狭窄的增长基础。

And in Asia, it continues to recover, continues to improve. There's two markets we're watching in particular. I would say, inbound to China, outbound out of Japan. They both continue to be below 2019 levels. Presumably at some point, they will sort of revert to the mean at some level. And when that happens, that could be a tailwind to growth, but we'll continue to watch those markets very carefully.

在亚洲，市场仍在持续复苏并不断改善。我们尤其关注两个市场，即进入中国的入境旅游和从日本出境的旅游。这两个市场目前仍低于 2019 年的水平。预计在某个时点，它们会在一定程度上回归均值。一旦发生这种情况，可能会成为增长的推动力，但我们会继续密切关注这些市场。

So all in all, continue to see strong cross-border. It's important for our business. It's important for our economics. And like I said, we'll continue to be data-driven and share with you what we see.

因此，总体而言，跨境业务依然强劲。这对我们的业务至关重要，对我们的经济效益也至关重要。如我所说，我们将继续以数据为导向，并与大家分享我们的观察。

Darrin Peller

Right. And on that note, I mean, it's maybe related to cross-border, but FX volatility, obviously, has been getting -- it's getting higher, right? It's been higher now for some time, although albeit it was a headwind quite a bit of the year last year and even into this year. Where are we now on it? And what's embedded on the FX vol side relative to your guidance? Any maybe conservatism in your outlook for that?

好的。说到这里，这可能与跨境业务有关，但显然外汇波动性一直在增加，对吧？这种波动性已经持续较长一段时间了，尽管去年大部分时间甚至今年都带来了不利影响。目前我们处于怎样的状况？你们的指引中对外汇波动性有什么样的假设？你们的展望中是否包含了一些保守的考虑？

Christopher Suh

So you're exactly right. Last year, it was pretty much a headwind. We had the highest point of volatility last year it was in Q1, and then it sort of meaningfully declined throughout the course of the year. And so that was a drag on year-over-year growth throughout most of FY '24. Going into this year, Q1 was better than Q4 but still down a little bit year-over-year. And our expectation that we shared was that should volatility remain at those levels, it no longer becomes a drag starting in the current quarter that we're in. We'll let you know how we did in a few weeks.

所以你的理解完全正确。去年，这基本上是一个不利因素。去年波动性最高的时期是在第一季度，随后全年逐步显著下降。因此，在 2024 财年的大部分时间里，这对同比增长造成了拖累。今年第一季度的情况比第四季度有所改善，但同比仍略有下降。我们之前分享的预期是，如果波动性保持在这些水平，从我们当前所在的季度开始，它将不再成为拖累因素。几周后我们会告诉你具体表现如何。

Darrin Peller

Okay. Let's shift to a little bit of a bigger picture question. Now in terms of your outlook and your medium-term targets. And starting off with the fact that we just did exit a quarter where your growth rate on U.S. volume was 7% to 8% on U.S. You had 10% to 11% international volume. But you're guiding medium term to consumer payments volume growth of 5% to 7%. So just help us understand and reconcile the trajectory we're in right now versus the 5% to 7% embedded in your outlook.

好的，让我们转向一个更宏观一点的问题。现在谈谈你们的前景和中期目标。从刚刚结束的季度来看，你们美国市场的交易量增长率为 7%到 8%，国际市场则为 10%到 11%。但你们对中期消费者支付交易量增长的指引是 5%到 7%。请帮助我们理解并协调一下当前的增长趋势与你们展望中所设定的 5%到 7%的目标之间的差异。

Christopher Suh

I mean the first place I'll start is that the growth framework that we shared at Investor Day, which you're referring to the 5% to 7%, and for your information, it's not guidance. I just want to be clear. What we shared with you is a framework for growth and a long-term framework for growth where we said, we've given you the opportunity and the strategies by which we're going after this growth, as you can see how it all sort of plays out, it will impact the total growth of Visa. So let's focus a little bit on the consumer payments, but I kind of want to bring it back to that growth framework a little bit because I think that's instructive as well.

我的意思是，我首先要说明的是，我们在投资者日分享的增长框架，也就是你提到的 5%到 7%，仅供参考，并非业绩指引。我想明确一下，我们向你们展示的是一个增长框架，一个长期的增长框架，我们已经告诉你们我们追求这种增长的机会和战略，你们可以看到这一切如何展开，它将影响 Visa 的整体增长。因此，让我们稍微关注一下消费者支付领域，但我也想稍微回到那个增长框架，因为我认为这也很有指导意义。

So on the consumer payment side of it, I think the most important takeaway from Investor Day is, a, number one, we have great confidence that we'll continue to outgrow. We have outgrown. We'll continue to outgrow the addressable underlying PCE. We have great confidence in our ability to do that. And why do we have the ability? I know this has been a topic of conversation, obviously, in the U.S. and in other places. A few things I'll point out. Jack Forestell, our Chief Product Officer -- our Chief Product and Strategy Officer, did, I think, a really good job. If you haven't had a chance to go back and watch his sort of the -- his Investor Day presentation, I think it's worthwhile.

因此，在消费者支付方面，我认为投资者日最重要的要点是：第一，我们非常有信心能够继续实现超越增长。我们过去已经实现了超越增长，未来也将继续超过潜在的可寻址个人消费支出（PCE）增长。我们对实现这一目标的能力充满信心。为什么我们具备这种能力？我知道这显然在美国和其他地区一直是讨论的话题。我想指出几点。我们的首席产品与战略官 Jack Forestell 做得非常出色。如果你还没有机会回顾一下他在投资者日上的演讲，我认为值得一看。

He pointed to six things. Number one, that we've talked about the opportunity that we have in the $23 trillion. Two, he talked about these six ways, among many other ways that we're going to go after it. That's along focused strategy around cross-border, across affluent from sort of an innovation standpoint with tokenization, with credit solutions and with A2A. And so we're going after it in sort of a multipronged approach. And he also showed you that we've continued to execute really, really well. Seven markets that he showed, all with cash remaining under 10% of its total PCE. And in all those markets, we've continued to grow really strongly.

他指出了六个方面。第一，我们曾谈到我们在 23 万亿美元市场中的机会。第二，他提到了我们将采取的六种方式，以及其他许多方式，以实现这一目标。这包括围绕跨境业务、面向富裕客户的业务、从创新角度的代币化、信用解决方案以及账户对账户（A2A）支付的明确战略。因此，我们正以多管齐下的方式推进。他还向你们展示了我们持续出色的执行力。他展示的七个市场中，现金占个人消费支出（PCE）的比例均低于 10%。在所有这些市场中，我们都持续实现了强劲增长。

So the consumer payment story, again, we continue to expect that we'll outgrow even though that gap between PV and addressable PCE has narrowed and likely to continue to narrow. We'll continue to outgrow it. We have great confidence in our ability to do so. And then zooming out to the overall growth framework where a big part of Visa's strategy has been to diversify outside of consumer payments. And so with the strong growth in value-added services and new flows, when you add that all together over the last few years, as that PV, PCE gap has narrowed. We've continued to deliver double-digit revenue growth, and I think that's an important point as well.

因此，在消费者支付方面，我们仍然预计我们的增长速度将继续超过整体市场，尽管支付量（PV）与可寻址个人消费支出（PCE）之间的差距已经缩小，并可能继续缩小，但我们仍将保持更快的增长速度。我们对实现这一目标充满信心。从更广泛的增长框架来看，Visa 战略的重要组成部分之一是实现消费者支付以外的多元化发展。随着增值服务和新支付流的强劲增长，在过去几年中，即使支付量与个人消费支出之间的差距不断缩小，我们仍持续实现了两位数的收入增长，我认为这一点同样非常重要。

Darrin Peller

All right. So it's almost like you're putting it in as a placeholder that you're going to outperform the market. And even with whatever that number is outperforming the market, you're going to show us that double-digit given value-added services and new flows, and the other pieces of the pie are really that strong.

好的。所以这几乎就像你设定了一个占位符，表明你将跑赢市场。而且无论这个数字是多少，你都会通过增值服务、新的资金流以及其他业务板块的强劲表现，向我们展示两位数的增长。

Christopher Suh

Yes. I think we gave you all the pieces by which you could -- I think you could sort of pretty intelligently predict where you think we'll fall in that growth curve. I mean the way the growth framework showed 9% to 12%, as you know and that had different sort of levels of growth around consumer payments, value-added services and new flows.

是的。我认为我们已经向你们提供了所有必要的信息——我想你们可以相当准确地预测我们在该增长曲线中的位置。正如你们所知，我们的增长框架显示为 9%到 12%，其中包括消费者支付、增值服务和新流量等不同领域的增长水平。

Darrin Peller

Very quickly, just short term for a minute again. There is some business that you had -- that had shifted over the last year, a couple of contracts that I know went to a competitor. And so your -- it was impacting U.S. volume growth rate this year. That's lapping, I think, in your calendar second quarter, that should obviously have a slight tailwind to U.S. volume. I just want to make sure we're right about that.

快速地，再次短期看一下。过去一年中，你们有一些业务发生了转移，我知道有几个合同转给了竞争对手，因此影响了你们今年美国业务量的增长率。我认为这些影响将在你们日历年的第二季度结束，这显然会对美国业务量产生轻微的推动作用。我只是想确认一下我们的理解是否正确。

Christopher Suh

Yes, correct. We haven't spoken too much about it in detail, but I will acknowledge that there was some client portfolio losses transitions, and we will lap those specific ones you're referring to in the second half.

是的，没错。我们之前没有详细讨论过这个问题，但我承认确实存在一些客户组合流失的情况，你提到的这些具体情况将在下半年迎来同比基数的影响。

Darrin Peller

Second half. Right, in second -- of really calendar second half, right?

下半年。对吧，实际上是日历年的下半年，对吗？

Christopher Suh

Yes. 是的。

Darrin Peller

Yes. Okay. All right. And then just shifting gears a little more. I mean you completed, I think, 60% of your full year planned renewals in fiscal first quarter. And so maybe just touch on how you view the current landscape for portfolio renewals between large and small deals right now and really what you're seeing in the market.

好的。那么稍微换个话题。我记得你们在第一财季就完成了全年计划续约的 60%。那么请谈谈你们如何看待当前大额和小额交易组合续约的市场环境，以及你们目前在市场上观察到的情况。

Christopher Suh

Every year, just to, again, maybe structurally just to describe it a little bit, in any given year, you have -- so our typical sort of contract term is about five to seven years. And so any given year, you have roughly 15% to 20% of payment volumes impacted by renewal activity that come up for renewal.

每年，也许再从结构上稍微描述一下，我们典型的合同期限大约是五到七年。因此，在任何一年中，大约有 15%到 20%的支付交易量会受到续约活动的影响。

In FY '25, we shared that we expect that to be on the higher end around 20%. It was about 15% in FY '24. So it's a little bit of a bigger volume year. And to your point, the sort of unusual timing of such that the majority of it or 60% of it anyway, happens in Q1. That's largely played out. We saw a very successful and active renewal activity in the first quarter. And so that's all sort of playing out the way that we anticipate.

在 2025 财年，我们曾表示预计这一比例将达到较高水平，约为 20%。2024 财年约为 15%。因此，今年的交易量会稍大一些。而且正如你所指出的，这种不寻常的时间安排使得大部分（约 60%）发生在第一季度。这基本已经实现了。我们在第一季度看到了非常成功且活跃的续约活动，因此一切基本都在按我们的预期进行。

Zooming out to your broader question, though, it remains -- we operate in a very competitive industry. We continue to compete effectively and successfully and we're able to renew our existing client relationships and expand on them in many ways. It just goes to show we have a very localized strategy. We have great client engagement in all of our regions around the world. Each quarter, we go through a whole list of many of our positive outcomes with clients. I can't obviously rattle all of them off.

不过，从更广泛的角度来看，我们所处的行业竞争依然非常激烈。我们持续有效且成功地竞争，能够续签现有客户关系，并在许多方面进一步拓展。这恰恰表明我们拥有非常本地化的战略。我们在全球各个地区都与客户保持着良好的互动。每个季度，我们都会回顾与客户合作取得的众多积极成果。当然，我无法一一列举。

But I'll point to a couple just illustratively that we've talked about maybe in the last quarter or two. In Europe, we announced our -- well, sorry, with BNP Paribas, sorry, in Europe, we announced a renewal and expansion, expansion into France and Belgium in AP and in CEMEA, we announced a renewal and expansion of Standard Chartered Bank. We're going to renew our credit portfolio in certain markets in Asia, renew our debit portfolio in certain markets in Africa, and we're going to expand credit into the Middle East.

但我会举几个我们过去一两个季度提到过的例子来说明一下。在欧洲，我们宣布了与法国巴黎银行的续约和扩展合作，扩展至法国和比利时；在亚太地区和中东欧、中东及非洲地区，我们宣布了与渣打银行的续约和扩展合作。我们将在亚洲某些市场续签信用卡业务，在非洲某些市场续签借记卡业务，并将在中东地区扩大信用卡业务。

And so there's a number of wins in LAC. We talked about our deal with RBC, expanding in commercial and consumer across 10 markets in the Caribbean. And so again, we continue to be really successful on this front, but it remains a very competitive environment. And I think we do a good job of partnering with our clients to really grow the ecosystem in total.

因此，我们在拉丁美洲和加勒比地区取得了一些成功。我们提到了与加拿大皇家银行（RBC）的合作，在加勒比地区的 10 个市场拓展商业和消费者业务。因此，我们在这方面持续取得成功，但竞争环境依然非常激烈。我认为我们与客户的合作做得很好，真正推动了整个生态系统的增长。

Darrin Peller

Can I ask -- I mean, from a competitive standpoint, there was a perception among investors at least that with higher rebates, and incentives that things were kind of tougher from a competitive standpoint. And it looks like we've maybe gotten a little more rational, again, at least from a pricing standpoint. Can you just give us a sense of what you're seeing? I mean, do you think competition is any different today than it was over the past couple of years, whether it's versus other large payments companies that you compete with or other local networks or anything else?

我想问一下，从竞争的角度来看，至少投资者曾有一种看法，即随着更高的回扣和激励措施，竞争环境似乎变得更加艰难。而现在看来，我们可能又回归了一些理性，至少在定价方面是如此。您能否谈谈您的观察？您认为今天的竞争环境与过去几年相比有什么不同吗？无论是与您竞争的其他大型支付公司，还是与其他本地网络或其他任何方面？

Christopher Suh

I'll answer this in maybe a couple of ways. As I indicated in the last question, it remains a competitive environment. And thankfully, we've done a really good job of competing. And so that's all good.

我可能会从几个方面来回答这个问题。正如我在上一个问题中指出的，这仍然是一个竞争激烈的环境。幸运的是，我们在竞争方面做得非常出色。所以一切都很好。

From a pricing standpoint, we've consistently said we price to value. And what does that really mean? That means as long as we're continuing to be successful adding value to the health of the ecosystem, whether that's higher auth rates, better fraud management, whether we're able to deliver new services and products that help our clients be successful. We're helping the overall ecosystem be successful. Our clients grow. At the end of the day, it's a balancing act, and we want our clients to grow. We want the whole ecosystem to grow and all participants to benefit from that. And if we do a good job of sort of managing the delicate balance of that ecosystem, I think that, a, we feel really good about our ability to do so. And b, it's good for all participants in that ecosystem.

从定价的角度来看，我们一直强调我们的定价基于价值。这究竟意味着什么？这意味着只要我们持续成功地为生态系统的健康增加价值，无论是提高授权率、更好的欺诈管理，还是提供新的服务和产品帮助客户取得成功，我们都在帮助整个生态系统取得成功，帮助客户成长。归根结底，这是一个平衡的过程，我们希望客户成长，希望整个生态系统成长，让所有参与者都从中受益。如果我们能够很好地管理生态系统中的这种微妙平衡，我认为，一方面，我们对自身的能力充满信心；另一方面，这对生态系统中的所有参与者都有益。

And so a, it remains competitive; b, we price to value, and we think we continue to deliver increasing levels of value. We feel good about that. And then maybe the last thing I'll say is because you started with sort of an incentive question, which is, again, something that we've consistently said. We really managed the net revenue growth and incentives at the end of the day are a tool for us to continue to align interest with our partners to grow volumes, grow revenue. And really, we played the long game from that standpoint because that's really the goal to continue long-term health and growth of the ecosystem.

因此，首先，它仍然具有竞争力；其次，我们根据价值定价，并且我们认为我们持续提供越来越高的价值水平，对此我们感到满意。最后一点，我想说的是，因为你最初提到了激励措施的问题，这也是我们一直强调的内容。我们真正关注的是净收入增长，而激励措施归根结底是我们用来持续与合作伙伴保持利益一致、推动交易量和收入增长的工具。从这个角度来看，我们确实是在进行长期布局，因为我们的目标是保持生态系统的长期健康和增长。

Darrin Peller

Right. If I'm not mistaken, I mean you did a lot of your incentives and rebates, as you said, in Q1, and Q2 has a tough comp, but then it really should be an easier growth from a year-over-year standpoint in the second half, right, just given how much you've already done, obviously, on rebates.

对。如果我没理解错的话，正如你所说，你们在第一季度做了大量的激励措施和回扣，第二季度的同比基数较高，但考虑到你们在回扣方面已经做了很多，下半年的同比增长应该会更容易一些，对吧？

Christopher Suh

Yes. I mean -- listen, I haven't given sort of quarterly cadence for that, but we've tried to give a little bit of the shape of the year with our commentary about it being from...

是的，我的意思是——听着，我并没有给出具体的季度节奏，但我们试图通过我们的评论大致描述一下今年的情况，从……

Darrin Peller

Yes. Yes, that makes sense. And then quickly on local networks. This came up with a call -- actually, I was in a meeting with Oliver Jenkyn at your Investor Day, having lunch actually. And at the end of the day, I mean, he was really excited about local networks still being an opportunity and a source of share gains for you guys. Is that -- where does that -- what do you see there, I guess, in terms of European or other local network opportunities versus perhaps do you see any of the opposite extreme where governments are trying to do more on their own? Is that shaping up anywhere like Russia did years ago, anywhere else?

是的，是的，这很有道理。然后快速谈一下本地网络。这个问题之前在一次电话会议上提到过——实际上，我在你们投资者日活动时与 Oliver Jenkyn 开会，实际上是在共进午餐。总的来说，他对本地网络仍然感到非常兴奋，认为这是你们获得市场份额的机会和来源。我想问的是，你们怎么看待欧洲或其他地区本地网络的机会？或者你们是否看到相反的极端情况，比如政府试图更多地自行运作？有没有像几年前俄罗斯那样的情况在其他地方出现？

Christopher Suh

Yes. So -- yes, when we talked about -- let me try to address that. When we talked about the big opportunity that we saw in consumer payments. The $23 trillion, that includes a certain amount of volume that's run on domestic schemes. We -- our broad sort of positioning on consumer payments is that we're very committed to work to ensure that Visa remains the best way to be paid, pay and be paid on all consumer payments, whether it's carded, non-card, et cetera, et cetera. And so that's where our focus has been. We've had good success, and I share Oliver's enthusiasm. We've had good success. And we've talked about a number of wins against domestic schemes.

是的，所以——是的，当我们谈到——让我试着解释一下。当我们谈到我们在消费者支付领域看到的巨大机遇时，提到的 23 万亿美元中包含了一定数量通过本地支付网络处理的交易量。我们在消费者支付领域的整体定位是，我们致力于确保 Visa 继续成为所有消费者支付中最佳的收付款方式，无论是卡支付还是非卡支付等等。这就是我们关注的重点所在。我们已经取得了不错的成功，我也和 Oliver 一样充满热情。我们取得了不错的成功，并且提到了多次在与本地支付网络竞争中的胜利。

I think we'll -- I think it's sort of fair to acknowledge that our -- the robustness of our network and our capabilities and features are outshine many of those in these domestic schemes. Our approach has been sort of consistent, I'd say, because they are evolving to your point, governments are getting involved and sort of the dynamics maybe are slightly different with the type of offerings. And hence, the expansion of our strategy around consumer payments to be both card and non-card.

我认为，我们应该承认，我们网络的稳健性以及我们的能力和功能在很大程度上超过了许多国内支付系统。我想说，我们的做法一直相当一致，因为正如你所指出的，这些系统正在不断发展，政府也开始参与进来，可能在产品类型方面的动态略有不同。因此，我们在消费者支付领域的战略扩展涵盖了卡类和非卡类支付方式。

But we approach it in many ways in a consistent way. One, on the carded side of the business, this is what we know how to do. We know how to win issuance. We know how to win acceptance, we know how to make -- deliver innovation that makes the consumer engagement experience really great, like the flex credential as an example of that. We're going to continue now that we're sort of venturing against -- or with sort of alternative payments and things like this in these markets as well.

但我们在许多方面都以一致的方式来处理它。首先，在卡业务方面，这是我们所擅长的。我们知道如何赢得发卡业务，知道如何赢得受理业务，也知道如何提供创新，使消费者的参与体验变得非常出色，比如灵活凭证就是一个例子。现在，我们也将继续在这些市场中探索替代支付方式及类似的业务。

You've heard us talk a lot more about non-card or A2A networks. We've launched our own Visa-branded A2A. Tink helps us go do that. And in end markets where A2A, networks have flourished a little bit, we're seeing progress. So Tink, for example, is now processing 6 million transactions a month in the Nordics, where the Nordics were A2A and RTP transactions are doing well. And the Nordics is next on the list of the expansion of our Visa A2A service, which we announced in the U.K. last year.

你们已经听到我们更多地谈论非卡类或账户对账户（A2A）网络。我们推出了自己的 Visa 品牌 A2A 服务，Tink 帮助我们实现这一目标。在 A2A 网络稍有发展的终端市场，我们正看到进展。例如，Tink 目前在北欧地区每月处理 600 万笔交易，该地区的 A2A 和实时支付（RTP）交易表现良好。继去年在英国宣布推出 Visa A2A 服务后，北欧地区将成为我们下一步扩展该服务的目标市场。

And so again, we're having some local strategies specific to that. And then maybe the third thing I'll say is that with Visa as a service, as we continue to think about the opportunity to unbundle the Visa stack, offer things like Visa A2A Protect for other players and participants in these networks, that also is a differentiator and a value -- a valuable way that we can differentiate ourselves and Visa and also grow our opportunity as well.

因此，我们再次针对这一点制定了一些本地化战略。第三点是，随着 Visa 即服务的发展，我们持续考虑将 Visa 的技术栈进行拆分，为其他网络中的参与者提供诸如 Visa A2A Protect 等服务，这也是我们区别于其他公司的一个重要因素，同时也是我们扩大自身和 Visa 业务机会的有效途径。

Darrin Peller

But are you seeing any other governments try to pivot to that direction of doing more on their own or trying to move away from multinational companies.

但你是否看到其他政府试图转向更多地自主行动，或试图摆脱对跨国公司的依赖？

Christopher Suh

Yes. I mean you're seeing it in -- like if I think about sort of the real-time payments clearing, that's where we see it most actively. It's -- let's say, by last count, I think there are 70 countries that have some form of a real-time clearing network now. I think, though, the way that we've seen it evolve, it's relatively small. They haven't gained a lot of traction, except in certain markets.

是的。我的意思是，你可以在实时支付清算领域看到这一点，这是我们观察到最活跃的地方。据最新统计，目前大约有 70 个国家拥有某种形式的实时清算网络。不过，根据我们的观察，这些网络的规模相对较小，除了某些特定市场外，并未获得太多的关注。

And really, for us, it's come down to, a, what's the level of investment that the governments have made behind these networks, these sort of new networks, these alternative payment networks. And are they serious about it? And b, is there really a glaring need or a problem to get solved. And in cases where there is, then you've seen sort of these payment networks flourish.

对我们而言，关键在于：一，政府对这些新型网络、替代支付网络的投资力度如何，他们是否认真对待；二，是否存在亟待解决的明显需求或问题。在确实存在这种情况的地方，你会看到这些支付网络蓬勃发展。

And in other cases, they haven't. And like I said, we continue to think about how we work with coexist, partner with, in some cases, and compete and adapt in these markets. They are small, but they are growing. And so you've heard us adapt our strategy...

而在其他情况下，他们并未这样做。正如我所说，我们持续思考如何与这些市场共存、合作，在某些情况下竞争并适应。这些市场规模虽小，但正在增长。因此你们已经听到我们调整了战略……

Darrin Peller

Yes. I mean I think the Visa as a service strategy kind of addresses that, right? You now can offer even those companies if I don't know, take Pix in Brazil or other markets you could offer them value-added services, right? That may wrap around what they're doing and make it more secure. So maybe we just shift for a moment to VAS, in general. I mean you have issuing, acceptance, risk and ID, advisory and open banking or kind of the main categories, all of them growing double digits. And so -- and you guided to a strong growth rate.

是的。我认为 Visa 即服务的战略在某种程度上解决了这个问题，对吧？现在，即使是那些公司，比如巴西的 Pix 或其他市场的公司，你也可以向它们提供增值服务，对吧？这些服务可能围绕它们现有的业务，使其更加安全。那么，我们暂时转向增值服务（VAS）整体来看一下。我的意思是，你们有发卡、受理、风险与身份识别、咨询和开放银行等主要类别，这些类别都实现了两位数的增长。因此，你们也给出了强劲的增长预期。

I think you said, what, mid- to high teens or high teens. When we think about the potential for that, where are you investing most of your incremental dollars now? And how much of it is organic versus M&A-driven going forward.

我想你提到的是中高到高的十几百分点。当我们考虑实现这一潜力时，你们目前将大部分新增资金投向哪些领域？未来这些投资中，有多少是内生增长，有多少是通过并购驱动的？

Christopher Suh

Right. Value-added services is doing great. The business itself has been one of the highlights for Visa, led by the very capable Anthony Cahill, who is the Global President of value-added services, who you heard from on Investor Day. There's a lot going on in this business, and we tried to be, like I said, pretty transparent about the success we're seeing. You pointed to the four solutions, but -- four portfolios, as we call them. But maybe I'll just click into that for a second.

是的，增值服务表现出色。这项业务本身一直是 Visa 的亮点之一，由非常能干的 Anthony Cahill 领导，他是增值服务的全球总裁，你们在投资者日上也听过他的发言。这项业务有很多进展，正如我所说，我们一直努力透明地展示我们所取得的成功。你提到了四个解决方案，但——或者我们称之为四个产品组合。但也许我可以稍微深入讲一下。

So issuing solutions, acceptance, risk and security and advisory and other. All four over $1 billion each with issuing solutions at north of $3 billion. And all of them growing at mid-teens or even higher with advisory and other growing the fastest over the last three years.

因此，发卡解决方案、受理业务、风险与安全、咨询及其他业务，这四个领域每个收入均超过 10 亿美元，其中发卡解决方案超过 30 亿美元。这些业务均以中双位数甚至更高的速度增长，其中咨询及其他业务在过去三年增长最快。

And so breadth, scale and opportunity and execution has been strong. I'll also point out what's most encouraging to me or one of the more encouraging things is also the fact that even at this scale, almost $9 billion in FY '24, growing 20%, we're only penetrated about sort of, let's say, 1% to 3% in each of the portfolios that we operate in. And so the revenue -- that's a revenue statement. The revenue opportunity remains quite significant in front of us.

因此，我们的广度、规模、机遇和执行力一直都很强劲。我还想指出，最令我感到鼓舞的一点，或者说更令人鼓舞的事情之一是，即使在目前这种规模下，2024 财年收入接近 90 亿美元，增长 20%，但我们在所涉足的每个业务组合中的渗透率仅约为 1%到 3%。因此，从收入角度来看，我们面前的收入机会仍然非常巨大。

In terms of prioritization, we've invested in this business all along. We're really fortunate that we have the ability -- the balance sheet and the ability to really invest organically, inorganically, think about how we grow all these markets like we do across Visa, for value-added services, it start with, a, the -- is there a client need? Is there a market need? Is there a client need? And if the answer is yes, then we look at is -- we ask ourselves a few questions.

在优先级方面，我们一直在投资这项业务。我们非常幸运，拥有这样的能力——资产负债表和真正进行有机和无机投资的能力，思考如何像我们在 Visa 各个领域所做的那样发展所有这些市场。对于增值服务而言，首先要考虑的是：客户是否有需求？市场是否有需求？客户是否有需求？如果答案是肯定的，那么我们会进一步问自己几个问题。

One is, is Visa uniquely suited to help address that? If the answer is yes, then how do we go about doing that? Can we enhance an existing product or service? Or alternatively, do you have to build a new one? Or do you have to acquire it for that matter. And if you look across what we've done in VAS in issuing solutions, we acquired Pismo. But we've also been investing in our own solutions. We talked about Smarter Stand-In Processing, for example.

首先，Visa 是否具备独特优势来帮助解决这个问题？如果答案是肯定的，那么我们该如何去做？我们能否改进现有的产品或服务？或者，我们是否需要开发一个新的产品？又或者，我们是否需要通过收购来实现？如果你回顾一下我们在增值服务（VAS）发行解决方案方面所做的工作，我们收购了 Pismo，但我们也一直在投资我们自己的解决方案。例如，我们提到了更智能的备用处理（Smarter Stand-In Processing）。

In Acceptance Solutions, previously acquired CyberSource, Verifi. We talked about the fact that we're investing in Authorize.net, whole new reimagined refreshed service coming out later this year, advanced tools, sophisticated tools using the AI agent and that, as we've cleverly dubbed it coming out later this year. Risk and advisory, we've acquired Featurespace. We've closed that acquisition.

在接受解决方案方面，我们之前收购了 CyberSource 和 Verifi。我们提到正在投资 Authorize.net，今年晚些时候将推出全新重新设计的服务，配备先进工具，使用人工智能代理的复杂工具，我们为此巧妙地命名，今年晚些时候推出。在风险与咨询领域，我们已收购了 Featurespace，并已完成该收购。

And we've always -- this has been a strength of ours. We've had industry-leading fraud detection, risk management services there. Advisory and other. We've grown an advisory business and marketing services business at very healthy rates, but we've also got Tink as part of that, part of the other advisory and other where we're seeing early days in growth. And so it's really a combined hybrid approach, acquisitions, homegrown investment in product and services. We've done, I think, a pretty good job, and we'll continue to focus on these areas...

而且我们一直以来——这都是我们的优势所在。我们拥有业内领先的欺诈检测和风险管理服务，以及咨询和其他服务。我们的咨询业务和营销服务业务增长非常稳健，同时我们还有 Tink 作为咨询和其他业务的一部分，目前正处于增长的初期阶段。因此，这实际上是一种混合的综合方法，包括收购以及自主开发的产品和服务投资。我认为我们做得相当不错，并将继续专注于这些领域……

Darrin Peller

Okay. Maybe just one last question for me, and then maybe we'll have time for just one quick one. But just from a policy standpoint, a lot of noise in the market, obviously, right now. And so what policy changes are you most focused on within this current administration? Maybe just comment on how tariffs have impacted the consumer in the past? And then any outlook or anything that's changed post-election in terms of expectations from the DOJ suit or regulated debit changes or anything else worth mentioning at the moment?

好的。我再问最后一个问题，然后可能还有时间快速再问一个。从政策角度来看，目前市场上显然有很多杂音。那么在当前政府下，你们最关注哪些政策变化？能否谈谈过去关税对消费者的影响？另外，在选举之后，对于司法部诉讼、借记卡监管变化或其他值得一提的事项，你们的预期是否有所改变？

Christopher Suh

Yes. There's a lot going on there as you called out. I'll try to unpack it maybe into a couple of distinct buckets. From a macro standpoint, at the beginning of the conversation, we noted that there's a level of uncertainty that we're all watching. But we've also consistently said, we're not macroeconomists. And in the past, we've continued to see resilience even in the -- when tariffs -- in the last administration, we saw some tariffs, inflation has been a thing over the last few years. And through all of that, the consumer has remained relatively resilient, and our volumes have remained relatively stable. And so that's sort of the best pattern recognition that we have.

是的，正如你所指出的，这里有很多情况。我尝试将其分成几个不同的方面。从宏观角度来看，在对话开始时，我们提到存在一定程度的不确定性，我们都在关注。但我们也一直强调，我们并非宏观经济学家。过去，即使在上一届政府实施关税期间，以及过去几年通胀持续存在的情况下，我们仍然看到消费者表现出相对的韧性，我们的交易量也保持了相对稳定。这大概是我们所能识别到的最佳模式。

Obviously, again, I'll sort of disclaim all that saying we're not macroeconomists, and we don't know how all that will play out in terms of recession or not recession, all these questions that are sort of popping up. But we'll continue to control what we can control.

显然，我还是要声明一下，我们并非宏观经济学家，也不知道经济衰退是否会发生，以及所有这些不断出现的问题会如何发展。但我们会继续控制我们能控制的事情。

On the second part of your question, from a policy regulation standpoint, it's early days. We continue to be constructively engaged. We continue to stand by our business practices. We continue to feel good that we've been pro competition, pro-growth, pro the benefit of all players in the ecosystem, and we'll continue to defend our right to do so.

关于你问题的第二部分，从政策监管的角度来看，目前还处于初期阶段。我们会继续积极参与，继续坚持我们的业务实践。我们依然相信，我们一直支持竞争、促进增长，并有利于生态系统中的所有参与方，我们也将继续捍卫我们这样做的权利。

Darrin Peller

Any quick ones? We have about 30 seconds, I guess. Okay. Why don't we leave it there, guys. Thank you so much, Chris...

还有快速提问的吗？我们大概还有 30 秒吧。好的，那我们就到这里吧，各位。非常感谢你，Chris……

Christopher Suh

Great. I appreciate it. Thanks for the time.

很好。我很感激。谢谢您的时间。

2025-03-11 Visa Inc. (V) Wolfe Research FinTech Forum (Transcript)

2025-03-11 Visa Inc. (V) Wolfe Research FinTech Forum (Transcript)

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