Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

Good morning, everybody. We'll keep this going. Kicking off with the first fireside chat of this year's Annual Energy Conference. And we're lucky enough to have Eimear Bonner here with us, the CFO of Chevron. So thanks for being here, Eimear. This is great. I know this is -- I know the Vegas Conference has a fun place in your heart.  

大家早上好。我们就此继续进行。今年年度能源大会的第一场炉边对话就要开始了。我们非常幸运地邀请到了雪佛龙的首席财务官 Eimear Bonner。非常感谢你能来到这里，Eimear。这真是太好了。我知道这是——我知道拉斯维加斯的大会对你来说别有一番趣味。  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

It took place in my heart, yes.  

是的，确实在我心里占有一席之地。  

Question-and-Answer Session  

问答环节  

Q - Ryan Todd  

问 – 瑞安·托德  

I think we'll kick it off with the first question that changed for us over the last 24 hours, which is that this week at the start of the conference, you surprised the market a little bit with a relatively unusual announcement that you purchased about 5% of the shares of Hess in the open market. So can you maybe walk us through this decision?  

我想我们先从过去 24 小时里对我们来说有所变化的第一个问题开始。就在本周会议开始之际，你们做了一个相对不寻常的公告，稍微让市场有点惊讶：你们在公开市场上购入了大约 5% 的 Hess 股份。能跟我们讲讲你们做这个决定的原因吗？  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Yes. Sure. Well, I mean we saw this as an opportunity to create value for shareholders by purchasing the Hess shares at a significant discount to the implied price as per the exchange ratio and the merger agreement. So it was an opportunity to create value. And the timing in the first quarter, we wanted to build a position, 4.9% position. We wanted to do that over a course of a number of months and be able to disclose it and talk to our investors about it. So that was the thinking around the timing on the first quarter. The action also underscores our view, our confidence in the successful arbitration outcome. So those are the things that played into the decision.  

是的，当然。我们的想法是，通过按照并购协议和换股比例所隐含的价格，折价购买 Hess 的股票来为股东创造价值。这是一个创造价值的机会。至于第一季度的时机，我们想要建仓 4.9% 的持股，并且打算在数月内完成，这样就能进行披露并向投资者说明情况。因此，这就是我们对第一季度时机的考虑。这个举动也体现了我们的看法以及对仲裁顺利结果的信心。这些因素都促成了这个决定。  

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

Great. Thank you. So let's talk in my commentary at the start, I talked about free cash flow inflection, which I think the -- there's an interesting position for the Group right now where there is a pretty significant free cash flow inflection across many of the companies and you are one of the leaders in that with a very significant I think you've talked about roughly $9 billion to $10 billion depending on the commodity price inflection in free cash flow over the next couple of years. Can you walk us through maybe the primary drivers of that free cash flow inflection, maybe your confidence in realizing that significant jump?  

好的，谢谢。那么再来说说我在开场时的评论中提到的自由现金流激增。我认为，在很多公司中，目前都出现了相当可观的自由现金流增长，你们处于领先地位之一。我记得你们谈到过，未来几年可能会因商品价格变动而带来大约 90 亿到 100 亿美元的自由现金流增长。能否跟我们介绍一下这一自由现金流增长的主要驱动因素，以及你们对实现大幅增长的信心如何？  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Sure. So the incremental, $10 billion of incremental free cash flow is at $70 a barrel and $9 at $60. So that explains the range. So the key drivers, three major upstream catalysts, and then kind of a collection of things. Let me talk through the three upstream catalysts maybe to begin. At first, is TCO. We completed the project earlier this year finally. So we're really pleased with that. And so we expect an incremental $3 billion of free cash flow to come from TCO. So that's coming from increased production and less affiliate CapEx as the projects might complete. So that's the first driver. The second one comes from Permian. Permian has been growing at double-digit levels over the last five years. As we look forward, Permian will still grow, but we will moderate that growth and Permian will become more of a free cash flow generation machine for us in the company. And so we anticipate another $2 billion of incremental free cash flow from Permian. So that's the second upstream catalyst. And then third is Gulf of America. We have a number of projects that have completed recently. And we have Anchor online, we have Whale online. We have Ballymore starting up this year. And putting that together, we're going to grow production to 300,000 barrels a day by the end of 2026. So we anticipate another $2 billion of incremental free cash flow from Gulf of America plus or minus. There might be a little bit more upside there as well. So that $7 billion and then the balance of $2 billion to $3 billion really comes from a collection of improvements in our downstream and chemicals assets. So they've got some ongoing reliability and margin enhancement improvement work underway. We have a structural cost reduction effort underway as well. We announced that last year. And then we have some cash flow that obviously left the system when we divested assets. So the combination of those three is the final $3 billion. So that's how we walk to the $10 billion of incremental free cash flow by 2026. To your point on confidence, when we look at the catalysts, I mean, a lot of the projects have been derisked. They're now online, TCO is online, Anchor is online, Whale is online. And so our confidence is high given that a lot of the peak construction and complex work is behind us.  

好的。我们设想自由现金流的增量约为 100 亿美元，是基于 70 美元/桶的假设，而在 60 美元/桶时则是 90 亿。这也就解释了这个区间的原因。主要的驱动因素是三个主要的上游催化剂，再加上一些综合性因素。让我先说说那三个上游催化剂。首先是 TCO（Tengiz 油田项目）。我们终于在今年早些时候完成了该项目，我们对这一进展非常高兴。我们预计 TCO 能带来约 30 亿美元的额外自由现金流。其来源包括产量提升，以及随着项目完成而降低的附属资本支出。这是第一个驱动因素。第二个驱动因素来自二叠纪盆地（Permian）。过去五年间，二叠纪产量一直在两位数增长。展望未来，二叠纪依旧会增长，但我们会适度放缓增速，让二叠纪为公司贡献更多的自由现金流。因此，我们预计二叠纪将额外带来 20 亿美元的自由现金流。第三个催化剂来自墨西哥湾（Gulf of America）。我们近期完成了多项项目，比如 Anchor、Whale 已上线，Ballymore 也会在今年启动。将这些合在一起，我们预计到 2026 年底产量能提升到每日 30 万桶左右。因此，我们预估墨西哥湾将再贡献约 20 亿美元的额外自由现金流，也可能会有更多上涨空间。这样总共是 70 亿美元，再加上剩下的 20 到 30 亿美元，主要来自我们下游和化工资产的多项改进。这些改进包括提升可靠性和利润率的工作，我们也在进行结构性成本削减。我们去年宣布过这一点。还有一些与资产剥离相关的现金流曾经离开了系统。将这三部分合在一起就形成了最后的 30 亿美元。这样我们就能在 2026 年前把自由现金流增量推至 100 亿美元。关于你提到的信心，当我们看到这些催化剂时，许多项目的风险已经降低了。现在 TCO、Anchor、Whale 都已上线，所以很多高峰期建设及复杂作业已成过去，我们对这一前景自然相当有信心。  

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

All right. Perfect. And what is this inflection in free cash flow as that grows over the next couple of years? What does that mean for -- I think you've talked about your stated priorities are growing shareholder distributions and a strong balance sheet. So what does that inflection mean for those priorities?  

好的，太棒了。随着未来几年自由现金流的增长，你们提到过的首要任务是扩大股东分红并保持强劲的资产负债表。那么这一自由现金流的增量对这些优先事项来说意味着什么？  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Yes. The inflection just supports all of those priorities. So I mean we are confident that we can deliver on all of the four. We can grow the dividend. We can invest in the right projects in the business. We can maintain our strong balance sheet and we can return excess cash to shareholders through the cycle. So the inflection underpins the actions that we have today consistent with those financial priorities and what we intend to do going forward.  

是的，自由现金流的增长能支撑我们所有这些优先事项。我们有信心在四个方面都能交出答卷：我们能提高股息；我们能在合适的项目上投资；我们能维持强劲的资产负债表；同时还能在整个周期内向股东返还多余的现金。因此，这种自由现金流的增长为我们目前以及未来的财务优先事项奠定了基础。  

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

Great. Thanks. Let's focus in on one of the projects that you mentioned there, which was Tengiz. Obviously, it's been a number of years in the making, big startup, which I think has gone well over here at the early part of this year. Can you maybe give us an update and operational update, how is the asset performing? I know that it provided the opportunity to do more of a full-field optimization for the entire Tengiz project. So what have you seen so far to date and how is the ramp going?  

好的，谢谢。让我们聚焦你刚才提到的项目之一：Tengiz。显然，这是一个历时多年的大型投产项目，我看今年年初它的进展相当顺利。你能不能给我们做一些更新，介绍一下它现在的运营情况？我知道这也为整个 Tengiz 项目带来了更全面的油田优化机会。就你目前为止的观察来看，情况如何？增产节奏又怎么样？  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Yes. Well, the ramps going as expected. I mean, we guided two, three months of a ramp to give us adequate time to obviously monitor all of the new equipment, do all the performance testing, and get comfortable with this new and significantly large complex operations. So everything is going well with the ramp, no surprises there. And when we look at all the pieces and the performance of the reservoir, the performance of the Whales under a new pressure regime, the performance of all the systems at the surface. No surprises there. So everything is working together and as expected and the reliability of the WPMP system, which has almost been online for a year now. It's been very strong. So overall, we feel good about the operation. Your point on asset optimization, as part of the FGP project, we also constructed an integrated operations center that allowed us to integrate the control of all of the assets. We have the KTL assets that are Soviet legacy assets. We have the SGP second-generation that's about 15 years old, and now we have the new plants. This integrated operations center took the independent plants that were controlled separately into one operation center. And that's allowed us to optimize, keep the plant full, and look at how do we remove the constraints in the plant and ensure that we maximize production. It's also given us analytics around how the new system is working and that's going to be very informative as we look forward and optimize the asset for the long-term.  

是的，目前的提产节奏符合预期。我们最初给出的指引是两到三个月，这样我们就有充分时间对所有新设备进行监控和性能测试，让我们能够适应这个全新且规模庞大的复杂运行系统。所以目前的提产进展一切顺利，没有意外。从地层、井在新压力环境下的表现，再到地面各系统的运转情况，都没有什么意外。所有环节都协同运作，表现符合预期，WPMP 系统（井口压力管理项目）也已经上线近一年，可靠性非常不错。总体来说，我们对运营状况感到满意。你提到的资产优化方面，在 FGP 项目中，我们还建设了一个综合运营中心，使我们能够对所有资产进行统一控制。我们拥有前苏联时期遗留的 KTL 设施，拥有大约 15 年历史的 SGP 第二代设施，现在又有新的生产设施。这个综合运营中心把原先分别独立控制的装置统一到一个地方进行操控。这样一来，我们就能进一步优化生产，让装置尽可能满负荷运转，并分析如何消除瓶颈，确保产量最大化。同时，这也为我们提供了对新系统运行数据的分析，对于我们今后优化资产、实现长期效益非常有价值。  

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

Great. Thanks. Maybe further, I would say one concern that investors have, you've had some headlines in the news is on the ability to, I guess, the risk to Tengiz's production or Kazakhstani production in some sort of the headlines you've seen out there. So can you maybe walk through how you view risk either from CPC pipeline capacity or specifically from OPEC+ sanctions and where you think there might be a risk to the production volume ramp there.  

好的，谢谢。或许进一步说一下，投资者有些担忧，你们在新闻上出现了一些关于 Tengiz 产量或哈萨克斯坦产量的风险报道，可能涉及你们看到的一些头条。那么能否跟我们谈谈你们怎么看待来自 CPC 管线输送能力或 OPEC+ 制裁的风险？你觉得在产量提升上，可能存在哪些方面的风险？  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

So we haven't observed any interruptions in light of the damage at the pump station and that's been in the news over the last month. So we are continuing with our ramp and our production is exported by the CPC line and there's been no interruptions there. So that's CPC. In terms of OPEC+, I mean, historically, we've never experienced cuts. As a reminder, we have a tax and royalty contract in the country. And so we are a significant -- a contributor to revenue for the country. So high-margin, high-value barrels. And so we have not seen any interruptions in light of OPEC+ as well.  

关于泵站受损的新闻，其实我们并没有观察到任何实际的停顿。过去一个月媒体有所报道，但我们目前仍在继续增产，产量通过 CPC 管线出口，并未受到中断。因此在 CPC 方面没什么问题。至于 OPEC+，从历史上看，我们从未遇到过减产。需要提醒的是，我们在该国签署的是税费加特许权合同，因此我们是国家财政收入的重要贡献者之一，这些产量的利润率和价值都很高。所以到目前为止，我们也没有在 OPEC+ 方面看到任何产量受阻的情况。  

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德

Okay. So in the risk of curtailments, do you think Tengiz is the last man standing? Is that kind of the?  

好的。那么，如果真的出现减产风险，你认为 Tengiz 会是最后一个坚持下去的吗？是这个意思吗？  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳

Well, historically, we've never seen this cut.  

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德

Okay. So maybe taking a step back at a high level. As we think about your sources and uses of cash over the -- over recent years you've highlighted really impressive capital efficiency across your portfolio. And you spend, I would say, well below average, a little over 40% of your cash flow is allocated to capital spend with the remainder going to shareholder distribution students and balance sheet over the last five years. So a number which potentially would move even lower over the next couple of years as the free cash flow generation increases. So at a high level, how do you think about what is the right amount of capital to invest in the business? Chevron has lowered the capital budget over the next couple of years in terms of the capital budget guidance. What's the right number? And on the downside, is there a risk that, that number falls too low and how do you think about balancing that?  

好的，也许我们从更宏观的角度回顾一下。近年来，你们在投资组合中展现出了非常令人印象深刻的资本效率。你们的支出，我认为显著低于行业平均水平，过去五年里仅有略高于 40% 的现金流用于资本支出，其余则用于股东分配和资产负债表管理。随着自由现金流的增加，这个数字今后几年可能会进一步降低。从更高层面来看，你们觉得应该向业务投入多少资本才是合适的？雪佛龙在未来几年降低了资本预算指引，那么合适的数字是多少？从另一面看，这个数字会不会过低？你们又如何权衡呢？  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳

Yes. Well, maybe first of all, we have a very deliberate and balanced approach to capital allocation. And as I mentioned previously, it's guided by our financial priorities. So your points on and capital efficiency are fair. When we look at our ability to sustain and grow the enterprise. We're doing that with less capital. An example would be 10 years ago. I mean our capital was $40 billion and last year it was $16 billion, so less than half of that, we're still able to grow the company and by 7%. So there is a capital efficiency story there. We intend to bring capital down further in 2025. Projects are completing. And we're also seeing a lot of efficiency in our big operations. Permian would be one of those examples and we'll still grow by 6%. And over the long-term, depending on where we are with our short-cycle, long-cycle projects, I mean, we anticipate guidance to stay somewhere between $14 billion and $16 billion. So that's how we look at it over the long-term. We don't really have a target for reinvestment. We have to balance what projects we have, but we think that range is sufficient because it will move around a little bit. And we'll continue to expect capital-efficient investments to deliver value and we'll do that consistent with our financial priorities. So where we don't believe that we're under-investing, we're able to meet all of the financial priorities and do that in a competitive way with the capital that we're spending today.  

是的，首先我们对资本配置有非常深思熟虑且平衡的方法。正如我之前提到的，这基于我们的财务优先事项。你提到的资本效率问题非常合理。我们用更少的资本就能维持并扩大业务规模。举个例子，10 年前我们的资本支出是 400 亿美元，而去年是 160 亿美元，减少了一半还多，但我们仍然实现了 7% 的增长。这就体现了资本效率。我们打算在 2025 年进一步降低资本支出，随着项目逐步完成，我们也在大型业务中看到了很多效率提升。二叠纪就是一个例子，我们仍预计有 6% 的产量增长。从长期来看，根据短周期和长周期项目的情况，我们预计整体指引会在 140 亿到 160 亿美元之间波动。我们并没有一个明确的再投资目标，主要取决于项目组合，但我们认为这个区间足以满足需求，也会有一些波动。我们会继续进行高效的资本投资来创造价值，并与我们的财务优先事项保持一致。因此我们并不认为自己投入不足，可以在完成所有财务优先事项的同时，以今天的资本开支方式来保持竞争力。  

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德

Great. Thanks. Let's talk about one area of deployment of capital, which is a little bit new for you, which is this power deal that you announced recently. You announced a pretty interesting, obviously, everybody loves to talk about AI and data centers and hyperscalers and stuff like that. You announced an interesting deal to support the build-out of data centers, entering into partnership with GE and Engine No. 1. Can you maybe talk about what attracted you to this type of deal? What gives you confidence that you can generate an attractive rate of return and something like this and what makes this strategy unique or advantage for you?  

好的，谢谢。让我们来说说你们在资本部署方面的一个相对新领域，即你们最近宣布的电力项目。现在人人都在谈 AI、数据中心和大型云服务商。你们最近宣布的这个项目是与 GE 及 Engine No. 1 合作，帮助建设数据中心。能否谈谈这类交易对你们的吸引力在哪里？为什么你们有信心在这样的项目上获得可观的回报率？这个策略对你们而言有哪些独特之处或优势？  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳

Yes. Well, I think in this one, we think of this as aligned with what we said that we would do when we stood up our Chevron New Energy business and we had a number of focus areas, and one of the focus areas was emerging technologies, emerging businesses. And so this opportunity came about through our work on that. And when you think about the partnership, we're all bringing the strength to the partnership. It is unique. We are bringing technical expertise around designing, operating reliably on power plants or power facilities because we have to provide power in our remote locations around the world and we've got 4 gigawatts of power operating every day. So we bring that. Obviously, Engine No. 1 brought the turbines. They had reserved turbines. They were early in the queue and then GE, their expertise on fabricating the equipment. So when you bring that together, we're able in a unique way to provide this behind the meter 24/7 reliable power for data centers and there's great demand for that from customers. So it was a business that demands what we do and that's what attracted us to it. And in terms of the returns, look, we have a few things to work through before we take a final investment decision on this project or a set of projects will be expecting long-term contracts with customers. So PPAs to underpin the economics and our investment. And so we look to see that. We'll secure those. We're working with urgency today on securing those. And we would expect the project to generate double-digit returns and compete within our portfolio with everything else, all the other choices that we have. So this has to fit. It doesn't get a free path. So that's what the team is working on now and moving forward with location choices and customers so that we can advance an FID decision. So stay tuned.  

是的，在这件事上，我们认为它与我们在成立 Chevron New Energy 业务时所承诺的方向相一致。我们设定了若干重点领域，其中之一就是新兴技术与新兴业务。这个机会就是通过这些工作得来的。在谈到这个合作伙伴关系时，其独特之处在于我们各自都能发挥所长。我们能提供的专长是关于如何设计和可靠运营电厂或电力设施，因为我们在全球偏远地区都需要自行发电，目前每天运营的电力规模达 4 吉瓦。因此我们能够贡献这些经验。另外，Engine No. 1 提供了涡轮机，他们拥有已预留的涡轮机资源，排队比较靠前，而 GE 则在设备制造方面拥有丰富经验。结合在一起，我们就能以独特的方式为数据中心提供“表后”供电，24 小时不间断、可靠的电力，而客户对此的需求相当大。这种业务正好契合我们的能力所在，这就是我们对此感兴趣的原因。至于回报方面，我们确实还有一些事项需要在最终投资决策（FID）前解决，比如为项目或多个项目获取长期的客户合同，也就是通过购电协议 (PPA) 来支撑经济模型和投资。我们现在正努力推进签约事宜，速度很紧迫。我们希望这个项目能带来两位数的回报率，并在我们的投资组合中与其他选择相互竞争，不会得到任何特殊待遇。团队目前正专注于选址和客户谈判，以便推动最终投资决策。所以请大家保持关注。  

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德

That's great. And is this something where there is a potential opportunity for additional developments down the line or is this more of a one-off that was kind of a unique situation?  

太好了。那这是否意味着未来会有更多后续开发机会，还是说这只是一次独特的单次项目？  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳

Yes, I think we're optimistic about what it could potentially go to, but we'll take each one at a time.  

是的，我们对它的未来潜力持乐观态度，但还是会一个项目一个项目地按部就班推进。  

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德

Great. Let's talk a little bit about the Permian. Your Permian operations have been performing very well late. Can you maybe talk about what you see as some of the drivers of capital efficiency going forward, either in terms of well productivity or drilling and fracking efficiencies? And then maybe with that in mind, Permian CapEx is a little bit lower in 2025 versus 2024. How do you think about the potential for that CapEx to fall further over the next couple of years?  

好的。让我们聊一下二叠纪。你们的二叠纪业务最近表现非常不错。能否谈谈你们认为未来资本效率提升的主要驱动力，比如井生产率或者钻井、压裂效率方面？另外考虑到这一点，二叠纪在 2025 年的资本支出相对于 2024 年会略有下降。你们怎么看未来几年里资本支出可能会不会进一步降低？  

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳

Yes. The story in the Permian is kind of an incredible story of innovation and efficiency and across the entire factory. So if we break it down into drilling, completion, and production, we've seen efficiencies over the last few years in all of those areas. For example, when we look back at our plan five years ago and the rig count that we had in our plan then to support million barrels a day business. We're delivering that today with 40% less rigs than we thought five years ago. So the drilling efficiency has been significant. And then we move to completion of the wells. From a completion perspective, we've been able to use different technology to frac wells simultaneously. We can't apply these solutions across all the development areas, but where we can apply simul-frac and triple-frac, we've applied those. So fracking in parallel has also enabled us to deliver significant efficiencies on the completion side. And then from production, we've been working on moving more oil out of the rock in the subsurface through proprietary technology and pilots and innovation over the last couple of years and we're seeing early good results there. But we've also been using secondary recovery technology, enhanced gas-lift will be an example to get the most production out of the wells too. So when you put all of that together in a factory, we're able to grow Permian with less capital and get more and more efficient. And that's why we feel confident that with the growth plans that we have with Permian going forward, which has moderated relative to the last few years that we can do that with reduced capital and that's why you see our capital is going down this year and we intend to reduce that further into 2026.  

是的，二叠纪的发展是一个关于创新与效率的精彩故事，贯穿了整个运作体系。如果按钻井、完井、生产来分别看，我们在过去几年里都取得了效率提升。例如，回顾五年前的规划，当时我们为支撑每日百万桶产量而设想的钻机数量，如今我们比五年前规划中的钻机数少了 40%，却仍然达成了目标，可见钻井效率非常显著。再说到完井，我们能通过不同技术同时对井进行压裂。并不是所有开发区块都能应用，但在可以的地方，我们采用了双井同时压裂（simul-frac）和三井同时压裂（triple-frac）技术，这种并行压裂也为完井带来了显著的效率提升。而在生产方面，过去几年里我们一直在通过专有技术、试点项目和创新来提高井下岩层中石油的采收率，目前已有初步的良好成果。同时，我们也在利用二次采油技术，例如增强型气举技术，以便最大化产量。把这些全部组合在一个“工厂”式运作中，我们就能用更少的资本让二叠纪继续增长，同时效率越来越高。这也是为什么我们对未来二叠纪的发展计划有信心。与过去几年相比，我们会适度放缓增速，但仍能在资本减少的情况下实现增长。因此你也看到我们今年的资本开支正在下降，并计划在 2026 年之前进一步削减。  

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

All right. Thanks. And I guess as you -- we often get questions about I know you're kind of at or quickly approaching this million barrel a day production plateau. Why is that the right number? Can you, I mean, how long do you think you can hold that plateau? And how do you think about kind of shale and type production within the entire portfolio as you think across your businesses now?  

好的，谢谢。我想我们经常会被问到这个问题：我知道你们的产量已经达到或即将接近每天一百万桶的生产平台。为什么这一数字是合适的？你的意思是，你们认为这个平台可以维持多久？在考虑整个业务组合时，你们又是如何看待页岩油及类似资产的产量的？

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Yes. Sure. Well, our plan was always to get to a million barrels a day and hold for a long period of time and position Permian to be a core asset within the portfolio that generated cash. And so we're there and we guided to that several years ago. In fact, we had higher guidance. We had guided to 1.2 plus. But since the earlier guidance, we also have the DJ that produces another 400,000 barrels a day. So two pretty significant US and Shale assets. And so we feel that that level of production is sufficient given maybe other assets that we have in the portfolio and we've got a significant amount of our production coming from Shale and Tight assets. So that gives us the opportunity to use that cash to invest in other asset classes. So that's why we feel comfortable with the total production coming from our Shale and Tight assets in the US.  

是的，当然。我们的计划一直是达到每天一百万桶的产量，并长期保持这一水平，同时将二叠纪打造成整个资产组合中能创造现金流的核心资产。所以我们已经做到了，并且几年前就给出了这一指引。实际上，我们曾给出过更高的指引，指向每天超过 120万桶，但在此前的指引之后，我们还有 DJ 资产，每天额外产出 40 万桶。也就是说，我们拥有两项非常重要的美国页岩油资产。因此，考虑到我们组合中的其他资产，以及我们有大量产量来自页岩和致密油资产，这一产量水平是足够的。这也使我们有机会用这些现金去投资其他资产类别。因此，我们对美国页岩及致密油资产所带来的总产量感到放心。

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

And how long do you think you can hold the Permian at around 10 million barrels a day?  

那么，你认为二叠纪的产量能维持在大约每天 1000 万桶多久？

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Yes. We guided and shared our inventory outlook. And so we intend to hold that flat right through to 2040.  

是的，我们已经给出了相关指引并分享了库存展望。所以我们打算将这一水平保持到 2040 年。

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

Great. And as maybe if we shift gears a little bit to M&A remains highly topical within the sector. You've been an active participant in both directions, both the acquisitions and divestitures in recent years. In the past, you've experienced, you've expressed interest in consolidating your position in CPChem as I think your partners probably said the same thing. There's obviously increased pressure on your partner to potentially do something there. Can you talk about maybe how you think about the potential to increase your stake there? Is it attractive? And then maybe even more broadly about how do you think about your role as a potential consolidator in the industry?  

很好。再换个话题，谈谈行业内一直热门的并购问题。近年来，你们在收购和剥离方面都非常活跃。过去你们曾表达过希望巩固在 CPChem 的地位，我想你的合作伙伴们也有类似看法。显然，对你们的合作伙伴来说，可能需要采取一些行动。你能谈谈你们如何看待增加在那边持股的潜力吗？是否具有吸引力？再更广泛地说，你们又如何看待自己作为行业潜在整合者的角色？

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Okay. There's a lot there. Maybe first of all, from an M&A perspective, look, we're always looking to add good resources or assets at good value at an ever-green activity that we have in the company. To your point on chemicals and we have two big projects in execution currently, one in Qatar and one in the Gulf Coast, CPChem cracker projects are about 50% constructed. And so we would be interested at the right price in more chemicals, but at the right price is always the question there. We do have a constructive view of chemicals and we do believe margins will improve the backend of the decade and there's growth in the business underpinned by GDP growth in Asia, in particular. And so it is something that we've been -- we would be interested in, but it has to be at the right price. The assets have to then complete for capital within our portfolio. So that's how we're thinking about chemicals these days. I mean, we have a history of disciplined M&A. And so we're picky and we've brought things into the portfolio that have made sense that were assets where we could deliver synergies, create value for shareholders, but we've also walked away when things haven't been at the right price. So we'll continue to be very disciplined with the M&A. And right now we're focused on obviously our big transaction and closing Hess and bringing both of those companies together.  

这个问题涉及很多方面。首先，从并购角度看，我们始终在寻找能以合理价格获得优质资源或资产，这是我们公司长期坚持的活动。关于化工领域，你提到的，我们目前在执行两个大型项目，一个在卡塔尔，一个在墨西哥湾岸，CPChem 炼裂装置项目目前约完成 50%。因此，如果价格合适，我们会有兴趣增加化工资产，但关键始终在于价格。我们对化工业务持建设性看法，相信在本十年后期利润率会改善，并且受亚洲 GDP 增长支撑，业务也将增长。所以这是我们一直关注的领域，但必须是价格合适，资产也要符合我们资本配置的要求。这就是我们目前对化工领域的思考方式。我们在并购方面有着严格的纪律，所以我们很挑剔，只将那些能够产生协同效应、为股东创造价值的资产纳入组合，而对于价格不合理的项目，我们也会果断放弃。因此，我们会继续在并购上保持高度纪律性。目前，我们的重点显然在于完成大交易，整合 Hess，将这两家公司合并在一起。

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

Great. Maybe let's talk about structural cost reductions. You mentioned earlier in kind of your free cash flow waterfall bridge that you were talking about. You've guided $2 billion to $3 billion of structural cost reductions. You've announced some pretty significant headcount reductions that have been out there in the news. Can you maybe talk about what are the primary buckets or drivers of that $2 billion to $3 billion? And what's the timeline and how we can think about how the market can think about relative confidence in achieving those cost reductions?  

很好。那么我们谈谈结构性成本削减。你之前在自由现金流瀑布图中提到过，你们预计将实现 20 亿到 30 亿美元的结构性成本削减，并且新闻中也报道了你们大幅裁员的消息。你能谈谈这 20 亿到 30 亿美元削减的主要方面或驱动因素是什么吗？时间安排如何？市场应该如何看待你们实现这些成本削减的信心？

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Sure. Well, the $2 billion to $3 billion cost reductions that we announced in the third quarter call is the next program aligned with our focus on always being disciplined when it comes to capital and costs. So the $2 billion to $3 billion these are structural cost reductions and over the next few years, why we significantly grow. And there's three main focus areas that we're targeting. The first relates to divestments or assets that we sell to ensure that those costs leave the system quickly. And so the first $1 billion of the $2 billion to $3 billion is associated with that and those costs will lead the system this year. So in terms of our confidence, we believe we'll be able to deliver at least that this year. The second focus area is really around technology, where we can deploy technology solutions and to do work faster, to do work safer, and less with lower cost. We've got a number of examples across the company where we scale technology solutions to do things that typically would have involved large teams. An example, there would be the use of digital twins to plan turnarounds and the upfront work for an event versus having to deploy a lot of teams on the ground to do that. So second focus area, there's about $1 billion of opportunity in technology-related applications. And then the third, the third billion is associated with the restructuring of the organization. And this looks to the work that we do to support the business and where the work gets done and whether we can do the work differently. And so the reorganization and rewiring of the company brings like assets together and then to support those assets, we will put in place more standardized and more centralized teams that work on standardized workflows to support that business. And that will give us efficiency. And so some of the reductions that we shared are associated with the consequences of making those structural changes and changes to the high support is provided to the business.  

当然。我们在第三季度电话会议中宣布的 20 亿到 30 亿美元成本削减计划，是我们在资本与成本管理上始终保持严格纪律的一部分。这 20 亿到 30 亿美元的结构性成本削减将在未来几年内逐步显现，我们主要瞄准三个方向。第一是资产剥离，即通过出售资产让相关成本迅速退出系统。因此，在这 20 亿到 30 亿美元中，第一部分 10 亿美元与此有关，并将在今年最先实现。就我们的信心而言，我们相信今年至少能实现这部分。第二个方向是技术，通过部署技术解决方案，使工作更快、更安全、成本更低。公司内有许多实例，通过规模化技术解决方案，我们能够替代以往需要大量人员完成的工作。例如，利用数字孪生技术规划检修和前期工作，替代传统上需要大量现场团队的方式。所以在技术相关的应用方面大约有 10 亿美元的机会。第三部分 10 亿美元则与组织重组有关，这涉及到我们如何支持业务、工作在哪里完成以及能否以不同方式完成工作。公司的重组和内部重构将类似的资产整合在一起，为支持这些资产，我们将建立更标准化、更集中的团队，通过标准化流程来支持业务，从而提升效率。我们所分享的部分成本削减正是由于这些结构性变革以及对业务高支持模式的改变所带来的后果。

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

Great. Thanks. Maybe a couple more. The first couple months of the Trump administration has certainly generated a lot of headlines, decent amount of volatility other than adopting the Gulf of America, which I noticed that you've done. Can you maybe talk about what you think are some of the potential impacts to your business, positive or negative, whether it's tariffs, credits as part of the IRA, improved permitting, et cetera. What any thoughts on where we're going from here and what the impact could be?  

好的，谢谢。再问几个问题。特朗普政府上任的前几个月确实制造了不少头条新闻，也带来了一些波动，除了你们在墨西哥湾地区的动作之外。我想问一下，你认为有哪些可能对你们业务产生正面或负面影响的因素？无论是关税、作为《通胀削减法案》（IRA）一部分的信贷、许可审批的改善等等，你怎么看未来的发展以及可能产生的影响？

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Yes. Let me start with the last point on permits. I mean we're quite encouraged by the conversations and actions that are being taken to understand where the permitting bottlenecks are. And so we're encouraged there by the efforts on permitting and we expect some change will follow. On tariffs, we don't see material impacts from tariffs. So if we look at our feedstock for refineries, there's less than 10% that comes from Canada or Mexico. And so and we have alternatives. So we don't think that we're particularly exposed there. On the supply chain side, when we look at our US assets, our two big operations, a lot of the tubulars that we use for our drilling, on completion operations are sourced in the US. So we're not materially impacted there. So from kind of the base business, traditional business, we're not very, very exposed. The IRA is maybe kind of a different scenario. We are waiting to understand the implications of that. I mean your colleague talked about that just in his opening comments. So we're just looking to see what that means for renewable fuels. We've got an expansion underway for hydrogen. We've got a green hydrogen project that's starting up this year. So fortunately, we haven't deployed a lot of capital in these projects. We haven't invested in projects that rely a lot on the credits. And so for that one, it's more wait and see. We'll continue to be disciplined in light of the uncertainty there.  

好的。先说许可问题，我们对目前正在进行的关于识别许可瓶颈的对话和行动感到非常鼓舞，因此预期许可方面将会有一些改变。关于关税，我们认为关税不会产生实质性影响。比如说，作为炼油厂原料的供应中，来自加拿大或墨西哥的不到 10%，而且我们有其他替代来源，所以并不特别依赖于此。在供应链方面，我们在美国的两个大型运营基地中，许多用于钻井和完井作业的管材都是在美国采购的，因此不会受到实质影响。就基础业务和传统业务而言，我们的暴露风险并不高。至于 IRA（《通胀削减法案》），情况可能有所不同，我们正在等待了解其具体影响。正如你的同事在开场发言中提到的，我们正观察它对可再生燃料的影响。我们正在扩大氢能业务，今年也有一个绿色氢气项目启动。幸运的是，我们在这些项目上投入的资本并不多，也没有投资过多依赖信贷支持的项目。所以对于这一部分，我们更多的是观望，我们会在不确定性中继续保持纪律性。

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

Has the dialogue changed? I know, under the last administration, sometimes there was less dialogue between companies such as yourselves? And have you noticed any change in the dialogue out of Washington over the last few months?  

华盛顿方面的对话是否有所改变？我知道在上一届政府时期，你们这样的公司之间的交流有时较少。那么过去几个月你们有没有注意到华盛顿方面的对话有何变化？

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Well, I think we've had a lot of opportunities. Sarah Weeks last week was one of them to engage with some of the new members of the administration that work on our business and enabling our business. So the dialogue there has been really positive so far.  

我认为我们有过很多交流机会。比如上周与 Sarah Weeks 的会谈，就是与一些新任政府官员接触，他们负责与我们的业务相关的工作。总体来说，沟通一直非常积极。

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

Great. Thanks. Maybe one last one. If we do if we touch quickly on a few of your global assets, I mean, the assets maybe we may not talk quite as much about in your portfolio. If we look around Eastern Med, Gulf of America, Argentina, and Venezuela, any updates on what's interesting or exciting as we think about the next year or two.  

太好了，谢谢。最后再问一个问题。我们快速谈谈你们全球资产中那些可能在你们的投资组合中讨论得不多的资产。比如说，在东地中海、墨西哥湾、阿根廷和委内瑞拉地区，有什么有趣或令人兴奋的更新吗？展望未来一两年，有哪些值得关注的点？

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Yes. Well, I mentioned in previous comments about our chemical projects. So I think those are exciting and those will complete in 2026-'27. And our power project, that's also exciting. But on the upstream side, we've really got three areas that I would point to and first is Eastern Med. We have some ongoing brownfield projects ongoing in both Tamar and Leviathan right now. That will increase production by about 20%. But we also have an expansion opportunity with the Leviathan platform and we're looking at different concepts. We anticipate an FID decision later this year there. So there's growth in Eastern Med. And then on top of that, we've recently announced the agreement that we've aligned with the Cypriot and Egyptian governments around how to develop Aphrodite, which is also in that region, and we've got ongoing exploration in Egypt. So I think the growth in that area is interesting and something that we've been positive about. The second one is Argentina. We've got pace developments there, both NOJV and operated developments and Vaca Muerta. And we are encouraged by the recent reduction in inflation, the reduction and relaxation of some of the capital controls, and how is that participated in an export pipeline as well in the country. So I think Argentina is an area that we're encouraged by the recent developments and there's a lot of potential in the subsurface there. So that could feature more in our future. And then on the exploration side, we have significant efforts underway to reload the portfolio to build acreage and to drill not only exploration wells within tieback distance to existing facilities. Those opportunities would be low-cost tieback developments, but we also have 20% of our portfolio looking at frontier exploration prospects too. So those would be the three things in upstream as we look to growth beyond 2026 that we're excited about.  

是的。正如我之前提到的，我们的化工项目非常令人振奋，预计将在 2026-2027 年完成。我们的电力项目也同样令人兴奋。但在上游方面，我主要想指出三个区域：首先是东地中海地区。我们在 Tamar 和 Leviathan 都有正在进行的棕地开发项目，这将使产量增加约 20%。此外，我们对 Leviathan 平台还有扩展机会，正在探索不同的概念，预计今年晚些时候会有最终投资决策（FID）。因此东地中海地区存在增长潜力。另外，我们最近还宣布与塞浦路斯和埃及政府达成协议，共同开发 Aphrodite 项目，该项目也位于该区域，同时我们在埃及的勘探工作也在持续进行。所以我认为该区域的增长非常有吸引力，我们对此持乐观态度。第二个区域是阿根廷。那里的发展节奏较快，既有合资项目（NOJV）也有自营项目，以及 Vaca Muerta 页岩油项目。最近，阿根廷的通胀下降、部分资本管制放松以及出口管道的参与情况都让我们感到鼓舞。因此，我们看好阿根廷地下蕴藏的巨大潜力，这未来可能会在我们的资产组合中占据更大比重。第三，在勘探方面，我们正大力投入，重新充实资产组合，扩展勘探区块，并钻探不仅在与现有设施连结距离内的勘探井，这些机会属于低成本的连结开发，同时我们还有大约 20% 的资产组合用于前沿区域的勘探前景。所以这就是我们在上游方面对 2026 年以后增长充满期待的三个重点领域。

Ryan Todd  

瑞安·托德  

Great. Perfect. I think that's all the time we have. We really appreciate you being here today, Eimear. Thanks.  

很好，完美。我想这就是我们所有的时间了。非常感谢你今天能在这里，艾梅尔。谢谢你。

Eimear Bonner  

艾梅尔·邦纳  

Okay.  

好的。