Operator

接线员

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Capital One Q1 2025 Earnings Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions]

日安，感谢您的等候。欢迎参加 Capital One 2025 年第一季度财报电话会议。请注意，今天的会议正在录音。在发言人演示之后，将进行问答环节。[接线员指示]

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Norris, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

我现在想将会议交给今天的发言人，财务高级副总裁 Jeff Norris。请开始。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Thanks very much, Josh, and welcome to everyone. To access our live webcast of this call, please go to the Investors section of Capital One's website at capitalone.com and follow the links from there. A copy of the earnings presentation, press release and financial supplement can be found in the investors section of Capital One's website at capitalone.com by selecting financials and then quarterly earnings releases. With me this evening are Mr. Richard Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Andrew Young, Capital One's Chief Financial Officer. Richard and Andrew are going to walk you through our presentation, summarizing our first quarter results for 2025.

非常感谢，乔希，也欢迎大家。要访问本次电话会议的网络直播，请访问 Capital One 网站 capitalone.com 的投资者关系部分，并点击相应链接。盈利演示文稿、新闻稿和财务补充材料的副本可以在 Capital One 网站 capitalone.com 的投资者关系部分找到，选择“财务”然后选择“季度盈利发布”。今晚与我在一起的有 Capital One 董事长兼首席执行官 Richard Fairbank 先生，以及 Capital One 首席财务官 Andrew Young 先生。Richard 和 Andrew 将引导大家浏览我们的演示文稿，总结我们 2025 年第一季度的业绩。

Please note that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Information regarding Capital One's financial performance and any forward-looking statements contained in today's discussion and the materials speak only as of the particular date or dates indicated in the materials. Capital One does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of this information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

请注意，本演示文稿可能包含前瞻性陈述。有关 Capital One 财务表现的信息以及今天讨论和材料中包含的任何前瞻性陈述仅代表材料中指明的特定日期或日期的情况。Capital One 不承担任何因新信息、未来事件或其他原因而更新或修订任何此类信息的义务。

Numerous factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements. And for more information on these factors, please see the section titled forward-looking information in the earnings release presentation and the risk factor section of our annual and quarterly reports accessible at Capital One's website and filed with the SEC.

多种因素可能导致我们的实际结果与前瞻性陈述中描述的结果存在重大差异。有关这些因素的更多信息，请参阅盈利发布演示文稿中标题为“前瞻性信息”的部分以及我们年度和季度报告中的“风险因素”部分，这些报告可在 Capital One 网站上查阅并已提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。

And now I'll turn the call over to Mr. Young. Andrew?

现在我将电话转交给 Young 先生。Andrew？

Andrew Young

安德鲁·杨

Thanks, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start on Slide 3 of tonight's presentation. In the first quarter, Capital One earned $1.4 billion, or $3.45 per diluted common share. Included in the results for the quarter were adjusting items for legal reserve activities and discover integration expenses. Net of these adjusting items, first quarter earnings per share were $4.06.

谢谢，Jeff，大家下午好。我将从今晚演示文稿的幻灯片第 3 页开始。在第一季度，Capital One 实现盈利 14 亿美元，即稀释后普通股每股收益 3.45 美元。本季度业绩中包含了法律准备金活动和 Discover 整合费用的调整项目。扣除这些调整项目后，第一季度每股收益为 4.06 美元。

Pre-provision earnings in the first quarter were largely flat to the fourth quarter at $4.1 billion. On an adjusted basis, pre-provision earnings increased 2% from the fourth quarter. Revenue in the linked quarter declined 2% driven by 2 fewer days in the quarter. Noninterest expense decreased 5% on an adjusted basis, driven by declines in both marketing and operating expenses. Our provision for credit losses was $2.4 billion in the quarter, a decrease of $273 million compared to the prior quarter. The decrease was driven by $148 million lower net charge-offs and $123 million larger reserve release.

第一季度的拨备前利润为 41 亿美元，与第四季度基本持平。在调整后基础上，拨备前利润较第四季度增长 2%。由于本季度天数减少 2 天，环比收入下降 2%。在调整后基础上，非利息支出下降 5%，主要受营销和运营支出下降的推动。本季度的信贷损失准备金为 24 亿美元，较上一季度减少 2.73 亿美元。减少的原因是净核销额减少 1.48 亿美元以及准备金释放额增加 1.23 亿美元。

Turning to Slide 4. I will cover the allowance in greater detail. We released $368 million in allowance this quarter, bringing the allowance balance to $15.9 billion. Our total portfolio coverage ratio decreased 5 basis points to 4.91%.

转向幻灯片第 4 页。我将更详细地介绍准备金情况。本季度我们释放了 3.68 亿美元的准备金，使准备金余额达到 159 亿美元。我们的总投资组合覆盖率下降了 5 个基点至 4.91%。

I'll cover the drivers of the changes in allowance and coverage ratio by segment on Slide 5. In our Domestic Card business, we released $458 million in allowance. The allowance release was driven by continued favorable credit performance in the quarter, partially offset by higher consideration to our downside economic scenario and increased qualitative factors to account for heightened uncertainty. The coverage ratio remained largely flat as the impact of the allowance release was offset by the denominator effect from the paydown of seasonal balances.

我将在幻灯片第 5 页按业务板块介绍准备金和覆盖率变化的驱动因素。在我们的国内信用卡业务中，我们释放了 4.58 亿美元的准备金。准备金的释放是由于本季度持续良好的信贷表现，部分被我们对下行经济情景的更高考虑以及为应对加剧的不确定性而增加的定性因素所抵消。覆盖率基本保持平稳，因为准备金释放的影响被季节性余额偿还带来的分母效应所抵消。

As a reminder, our Domestic Card coverage ratio is about 100 basis points above CECL day 1 after taking into account the impact of the termination of the Walmart agreement. The allowance balance in our Consumer Banking segment was largely flat at $1.9 billion. Observed credit favorability and the impact of stable auction prices was largely offset by growth in the auto business. The coverage ratio decreased by 4 basis points. And finally, our commercial banking allowance increased by $117 million.

提醒一下，在考虑了沃尔玛协议终止的影响后，我们的国内信用卡覆盖率比 CECL 生效日高出约 100 个基点。我们消费者银行业务板块的准备金余额基本持平，为 19 亿美元。观察到的信贷利好和稳定的拍卖价格的影响，在很大程度上被汽车业务的增长所抵消。覆盖率下降了 4 个基点。最后，我们的商业银行业务准备金增加了 1.17 亿美元。

The build in allowance was driven by increased qualitative factors to account for heightened uncertainty as well as specific reserves for a small number of individual credits. Coverage ratio increased by 12 basis points to 1.73%.

准备金的增加是由于为应对加剧的不确定性而增加的定性因素，以及为少数个别信贷计提的专项准备金。覆盖率增加了 12 个基点至 1.73%。

Turning to Page 6. I'll now discuss liquidity. Total liquidity reserves in the quarter increased to $131 billion, about $7 billion higher than last quarter. Our cash position ended in the quarter at approximately $49 billion, up $5 billion from the prior quarter. The increase was driven by continued strong deposit growth in our retail banking business and the paydown of seasonal card balances. Our preliminary average liquidity coverage ratio during the first quarter was 152%.

转向第 6 页。我现在将讨论流动性。本季度的总流动性储备增加至 1310 亿美元，比上一季度高出约 70 亿美元。我们的现金头寸在本季度末约为 490 亿美元，比上一季度增加 50 亿美元。增长的原因是我们零售银行业务持续强劲的存款增长以及季节性信用卡余额的偿还。我们在第一季度的初步平均流动性覆盖率为 152%。

Turning to Page 7, I'll cover our net interest margin. Our first quarter net interest margin was 6.93%. 10 basis points lower than last quarter. The quarter-over-quarter decrease was driven by the 15 basis point impact of having 2 fewer days in the quarter. Beyond day count, NIM increased 5 basis points as the beneficial impact of the reduction in the repay in our deposits was only partially offset by the seasonal impact of lower average card loans and higher cash.

转向第 7 页，我将介绍我们的净息差。我们第一季度的净息差为 6.93%。比上一季度低 10 个基点。环比下降的原因是本季度天数减少 2 天带来的 15 个基点的影响。除天数影响外，净息差增加了 5 个基点，因为我们存款支付利率下降的有益影响仅部分被平均信用卡贷款减少和现金增加的季节性影响所抵消。

On a year-over-year basis, NIM increased 24 basis points, driven by a favorable mix towards card loan and the termination of the revenue sharing agreement with Walmart, partially offset by 1 fewer day relative to last year's leap year.

与去年同期相比，净息差增加了 24 个基点，主要受有利于信用卡贷款的结构组合以及与沃尔玛收入分成协议终止的推动，部分被相对于去年闰年减少 1 天所抵消。

Turning to Slide 8. I will end by discussing our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio ended quarter at 13.6%, approximately 10 basis points higher than the prior quarter. Net income in the quarter and the impact of seasonal loan declines were largely offset by the impact of the final CECL phase-in dividends and $150 million of share repurchases. Looking ahead, we expect the record date for the second quarter dividend for both Discover and Capital One to be after the May 18 closing date.

转向幻灯片第 8 页。我将以讨论我们的资本状况结束。我们的普通股一级资本充足率在本季度末为 13.6%，比上一季度高出约 10 个基点。本季度的净收入和季节性贷款下降的影响，在很大程度上被最终 CECL 分阶段实施、股息以及 1.5 亿美元股票回购的影响所抵消。展望未来，我们预计 Discover 和 Capital One 的第二季度股息股权登记日将在 5 月 18 日交割日之后。

As a result, we expect current Discover shareholders will be shareholders of Capital One's common stock as of the expected record date and will therefore receive Capital One's $0.60 second quarter dividend, subject to Board approval.

因此，我们预计当前的 Discover 股东将在预期的股权登记日成为 Capital One 普通股的股东，并将因此获得 Capital One 第二季度每股 0.60 美元的股息，但这需经董事会批准。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich. Rich?

就此，我将电话转交给 Rich。Rich？

Richard Fairbank

Thanks, Andrew, and good evening, everyone. Slide 10 shows first quarter results in our Credit Card business. Credit Card segment results are largely a function of our domestic card results and trends, which are shown on Slide 11.

谢谢，安德鲁，大家晚上好。幻灯片10显示了我们信用卡业务的第一季度业绩。信用卡部门的业绩主要取决于我们的国内卡结果和趋势，这些在幻灯片11中显示。

In the first quarter, our Domestic Card business delivered another quarter of top-line growth, strong margins and improving credit. Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 5%. The first quarter of 2024 had an extra day since it was a leap year. Adjusting for this leap year effect, year-over-year purchase volume growth was about 6%. Ending loan balances increased $6.4 billion or about 4% year-over-year. Average loans increased about 5% and revenue was up 7% from the first quarter of 2024, driven by the growth in purchase volume and loans.

在第一季度，我们的国内卡业务实现了又一个季度的收入增长、强劲的利润率和信用改善。季度的年度购买量增长为5%。由于2024年是闰年，第一季度多了一天。调整此闰年效应后，年度购买量增长约为6%。期末贷款余额增加了64亿美元，同比增长约4%。平均贷款增加约5%，收入比2024年第一季度增长7%，这得益于购买量和贷款的增长。

Revenue margin for the quarter increased 37 basis points from the prior year quarter to 18.2%, primarily driven by the impact of the end of the Walmart revenue sharing agreement. The charge-off rate for the quarter was 6.19%, up 25 basis points year-over-year. The impact of the end of the Walmart loss sharing agreement increased the first quarter charge-off rate by 42 basis points. Excluding this impact, the charge-off rate for the quarter would have been [5.77%] (ph) a year-over-year improvement of 17 basis points.

季度的收入利润率从去年同期增加了37个基点，达到18.2%，主要受到沃尔玛收入分成协议结束的影响。季度的核销率为6.19%，同比上升25个基点。沃尔玛损失分担协议结束的影响使第一季度的核销率增加了42个基点。若不考虑这一影响，季度的核销率将为[5.77%] (ph)，同比改善17个基点。

Our delinquencies have been improving steadily for several quarters on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 30-plus delinquency rate at the end of the first quarter was down 4.25%, down 23 basis points from the prior year. Domestic Card noninterest expense was up 13% compared to the first quarter of 2024. Operating expense and marketing both increased year-over-year. Total company marketing expense in the quarter was $1.2 billion, up 19% year-over-year. Our choices in domestic card are the biggest driver of total company marketing.

我们的拖欠情况在季节性调整基础上已连续几个季度稳定改善。第一季度末的30天以上拖欠率下降了4.25%，比去年同期下降了23个基点。与2024年第一季度相比，国内卡的非利息费用增长了13%。运营费用和营销费用均同比增长。季度的公司总营销费用为12亿美元，同比增长19%。我们在国内卡方面的选择是公司总营销的最大推动力。

We continue to see compelling growth opportunities in our Domestic Card business. Our marketing continues to deliver strong new account growth across the domestic card business and build an enduring franchise with heavy spenders at the top of the marketplace. Compared to the first quarter of 2024, domestic card marketing in the quarter included higher direct response marketing, higher media spend and increased investment in premium benefits and differentiated customer experiences like our travel portal, airline lounges and Capital One shopping.

我们在国内卡业务中继续看到有吸引力的增长机会。我们的营销继续在国内卡业务中带来强劲的新账户增长，并在市场顶端建立了一个持久的特许经营。与2024年第一季度相比，季度的国内卡营销包括更高的直接响应营销、更高的媒体支出以及对高级福利和差异化客户体验的增加投资，例如我们的旅游门户、航空公司休息室和Capital One购物。

As always, all of our marketing and origination choices are informed by our continuous monitoring of portfolio trends market conditions and consumer and competitor behaviors. Slide 12 shows first quarter results in our Consumer Banking business. Auto originations were up 22% from the prior year quarter, driven by overall market growth and our strong position to pursue resilient growth in the current marketplace. Consumer Banking ending loan balances increased $3.8 billion or about 5% year-over-year.

一如既往，我们的所有营销和发起选择都受到我们对投资组合趋势、市场条件以及消费者和竞争者行为的持续监控的指导。幻灯片12显示了我们消费者银行业务的第一季度业绩。汽车发起量比去年同期增长22%，这得益于整体市场增长和我们在当前市场中追求弹性增长的强劲地位。消费者银行的期末贷款余额增加了38亿美元，同比增长约5%。

Average loans were also up 5%. Compared to the year ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew about 8% and average consumer deposits were up about 9%. Our digital-first national consumer banking business continues to grow and gain traction, powered by our technology transformation and our compelling no fees, no minimums and no overdraft fees customer value proposition. Consumer Banking revenue for the quarter was down about 2% year-over-year, driven by margin compression in Retail Banking, partially offset by growth in auto loans and retail deposits. Noninterest expense was up about 27% compared to the first quarter of 2024 driven largely by the first quarter adjusting item Andrew discussed, as well as increased auto originations, higher marketing to drive growth in our National Consumer Banking business and continued technology investments.

平均贷款也增长了5%。与去年同期相比，期末消费者存款增长约8%，平均消费者存款增长约9%。我们的数字优先全国消费者银行业务继续增长并获得牵引力，这得益于我们的技术转型和我们引人注目的无费用、无最低限额和无透支费用的客户价值主张。季度的消费者银行收入同比下降约2%，这主要是由于零售银行的利润压缩，部分被汽车贷款和零售存款的增长所抵消。与2024年第一季度相比，非利息费用增长了约27%，这主要是由安德鲁讨论的第一季度调整项目以及增加的汽车发起量、更高的营销以推动我们全国消费者银行业务的增长和持续的技术投资推动的。

The auto charge-off rate for the quarter was 1.55%, down 44 basis points year-over-year, largely as a result of our choice to tighten credit and pull back in 2022, auto charge-offs have been a strong and stable contributor on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 30-plus delinquency rate was 4.93% down 35 basis points year-over-year.

季度的汽车核销率为1.55%，同比下降44个基点，这主要是由于我们在2022年选择收紧信贷和回撤的结果，在季节性调整基础上，汽车核销一直是一个强劲和稳定的贡献者。30天以上的拖欠率为4.93%，同比下降35个基点。

Slide 13 shows the first quarter results for our Commercial Banking business. Compared to the linked-quarter, both ending and average loan balances were essentially flat. Ending deposits were down about 5% from the linked quarter. Average deposits were roughly flat. We continue to manage down select less attractive commercial deposit balances. First quarter revenue was down 7% from the linked quarter and non-interest expense was down by about 6%. The commercial banking annualized net charge-off rate for the first quarter declined 15 basis points from the sequential quarter to 0.11%. The commercial criticized performing loan rate was 6.41%, up 6 basis points compared to the linked quarter. The criticized nonperforming loan rate was essentially flat at 1.40%.

幻灯片13显示了我们商业银行业务的第一季度业绩。与关联季度相比，期末和平均贷款余额基本持平。期末存款比关联季度下降约5%。平均存款大致持平。我们继续管理选择不太吸引人的商业存款余额。第一季度收入比关联季度下降7%，非利息费用下降约6%。第一季度的商业银行年度化净核销率从连续季度下降15个基点至0.11%。商业批评表现贷款率为6.41%，比关联季度上升6个基点。批评的不良贷款率基本持平，为1.40%。

In closing, we continued to post strong and steady results in the first quarter. We delivered another quarter of top-line growth in domestic card loans, purchase volume and revenue. In the auto business, we posted growth in originations and loan balances. Our national Consumer Banking business continued to deliver strong year-over-year growth and consumer credit continued to improve. Looking forward, we're very excited to move forward with our acquisition of Discover.

最后，我们在第一季度继续取得强劲和稳定的业绩。我们在国内卡贷款、购买量和收入方面实现了又一个季度的收入增长。在汽车业务中，我们在发起量和贷款余额方面实现了增长。我们的全国消费者银行业务继续实现强劲的年度增长，消费者信用继续改善。展望未来，我们非常高兴地推进对Discover的收购。

Last week, we received regulatory approval for our acquisition of Discover, and we're fully mobilized to complete the transaction on May 18. Until we close, we are still separate public companies, so we have limited access to Discovery's information. Based on our due diligence and integration planning, we continue to expect that we will achieve the synergies we estimated when we announced the deal, enabled by the integration costs we estimated at the announcement. And we continue to believe that we'll achieve the synergies run rate in about 24 months following the May 18 closing date.

上周，我们获得了监管部门对我们收购Discover的批准，我们已全面动员在5月18日完成交易。在交易完成之前，我们仍然是独立的上市公司，因此我们对Discovery的信息访问有限。基于我们的尽职调查和整合计划，我们继续预计将实现我们在宣布交易时估计的协同效应，这得益于我们在宣布时估计的整合成本。我们继续相信将在5月18日完成日期后的大约24个月内实现协同效应运行率。

And also, just a reminder, our network synergy estimate assumed the implementation of lower debit interchange rates proposed by the Fed under Reg II in October 2023. Those proposed rates are still pending because of various lawsuits. If there is ultimately no reduction to the current debit interchange fee levels it would lower our debit network synergy because it would increase the baseline to which we are comparing by about $170 million. But it would have no impact on our company's future revenue because, of course, the debit business will be on the Discover Network.

另外，提醒一下，我们的网络协同效应估计假设了美联储在2023年10月根据Reg II提出的较低借记卡互换费率的实施。由于各种诉讼，这些提议的费率仍在等待中。如果最终没有减少当前的借记卡互换费水平，它将降低我们的借记网络协同效应，因为它将增加我们比较的基线约1.7亿美元。但这对我们公司的未来收入没有影响，因为借记业务当然将在Discover网络上进行。

Pulling way up, the acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity. The combination of Capital One and Discover will create a leading consumer banking and payments platform with unique capabilities, modern technology, powerful brands and a customer franchise of over 100 million customers that spans the marketplace. It combines proven and complementary banking and credit card businesses with a global payments network. It leverages Capital One's technology transformation and digital capabilities across a significantly larger customer franchise. It delivers compelling financial results and offers the potential to enhance competition and create significant value for merchants and customers, and it enables and drives significant strategic and economic upside over the long-term.

从高处看，收购Discover是一个独特的机会。Capital One和Discover的结合将创建一个拥有独特能力、现代技术、强大品牌和跨越市场的超过1亿客户特许经营的领先消费者银行和支付平台。它结合了经过验证和互补的银行和信用卡业务以及全球支付网络。它利用Capital One的技术转型和数字能力，跨越更大规模的客户特许经营。它提供了引人注目的财务业绩，并为增强竞争和为商家和客户创造显著价值提供了潜力，并在长期内实现和推动显著的战略和经济上行空间。

And now we'll be happy to answer your questions. Jeff?

现在我们很高兴回答您的问题。杰夫？

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Thank you, Rich. We'll now start the Q&A session. Remember, as a courtesy to other investors and analysts who may wish to ask a question, please limit yourself to 1 question plus a single follow-up. If you have follow-up questions after the session is over, Investor Relations team will be available to answer them. Josh, please start the Q&A.

谢谢，Rich。我们现在开始问答环节。请记住，为了尊重其他可能希望提问的投资者和分析师，请将您的问题限制在一个问题外加一个后续问题。如果在会议结束后您还有后续问题，投资者关系团队将随时为您解答。Josh，请开始问答环节。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator

接线员

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.

[接线员指示] 我们的第一个问题来自高盛的 Ryan Nash。您可以开始了。

Ryan Nash

瑞安·纳什

Good evening Rich, good evening Andrew.

晚上好，Rich，晚上好，Andrew。

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Hi, Ryan.

你好，Ryan。

Ryan Nash

瑞安·纳什

So Rich, obviously, a lot of concerns in the market regarding tariffs and the state of the consumer. It's hard to see those concerns in the results, given better-than-expected credit in the reserve release. So maybe just talk a little bit about what you are seeing in the data within Capital One, what gave you the confidence to release reserves. And then for Andrew, you mentioned some of the drivers, favorable credit, higher allocation to the downside. Maybe just remind us what's included for the -- within the allowance for both unemployment and the overall economy? Thank you.

Rich，显然，市场上对关税和消费者状况有很多担忧。但鉴于信贷表现好于预期以及准备金的释放，这些担忧很难在业绩中体现出来。所以，也许可以谈谈您在 Capital One 内部的数据中看到了什么，是什么让您有信心释放准备金。然后对于 Andrew，您提到了几个驱动因素，有利的信贷状况，对下行风险的更高配置。能否提醒我们，准备金中包含了哪些关于失业率和整体经济的考量？谢谢。

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Great. Thanks, Ryan. So let me take your question about what we're seeing in the data. Let me start with a more macro discussion of the health of the consumer and how our major metrics, credit metrics are performing. And then let me just kind of double-click into the data that we're seeing on the spending side over the last couple of weeks because of course, everybody is watching that so closely. But first, pulling kind of way up on the consumer. The U.S. consumer remains a source of strength in the economy. That's true for almost any metric that we look at. the unemployment rate is low and stable. Job creation remains healthy, real wages are growing.

好的。谢谢，Ryan。让我来回答你关于我们在数据中看到的情况的问题。让我先从更宏观的角度讨论一下消费者的健康状况以及我们的主要指标、信贷指标的表现如何。然后让我深入分析一下过去几周我们在支出方面看到的数据，因为当然，大家都在密切关注这一点。但首先，从宏观层面来看消费者。美国消费者仍然是经济的强劲支撑点。这几乎适用于我们观察的任何指标。失业率低且稳定。就业创造保持健康，实际工资正在增长。

Consumer debt servicing burdens remain stable near pre-pandemic levels. In our card portfolio, we're seeing improving delinquency rates and lower delinquency entries, and payment rates are improving on a year-over-year basis. Now of course, the circumstances of individual consumers and households will vary as they always do. And what we look at often with national metrics is averages. And as we've discussed before, some pockets of consumers are feeling pressure from the cumulative effects of inflation and higher interest rates. And we're still seeing delayed charge-off effects from the pandemic, although our improving delinquency suggests that this effect may be moderating.

消费者债务偿还负担保持稳定，接近疫情前水平。在我们的信用卡投资组合中，我们看到逾期率正在改善，新增逾期减少，并且还款率同比正在提高。当然，个体消费者和家庭的情况总会有所不同。我们通常通过国家指标看到的是平均值。正如我们之前讨论过的，部分消费者群体正感受到通货膨胀累积效应和更高利率带来的压力。我们仍然看到疫情带来的延迟核销效应，尽管我们不断改善的逾期率表明这种效应可能正在减弱。

But on the whole, I'd say the U.S. consumer is in good shape. And we watch -- we always watch all the sort of leading indicator credit metrics to have a view of where credit is headed. So let me just take a look at those. And then I'll come back to the sort of last couple of weeks of spend data. So when we look inside our portfolio, of course, delinquencies are the best leading indicator. And we -- our delinquencies were stable on a seasonally adjusted basis throughout most of 2024.

但总的来说，我认为美国消费者状况良好。我们关注——我们总是关注所有领先的信贷指标，以判断信贷的走向。所以让我先看看这些指标。然后我再回过头来谈谈过去几周的支出数据。当我们审视我们的投资组合时，当然，逾期率是最好的领先指标。我们——我们的逾期率在 2024 年大部分时间里经季节性调整后保持稳定。

And as I mentioned, they improved relative to our seasonal expectation over the last six months. So that's obviously very good news there. Looking at other metrics. Payment rates we've seen – card payment rates increase year-over-year for the last 2 quarters. And this improvement is coincident with the improvements that we're seeing in our delinquency rate. Now of course, increasing payment rates, sort of slow down loan growth rate, but it's a trade we're always happy to make because of the flip side of the coin of the better credit performance.

正如我提到的，在过去六个月中，相对于我们的季节性预期，逾期率有所改善。所以这显然是非常好的消息。再看其他指标。还款率——我们看到过去两个季度信用卡还款率同比上升。这种改善与我们在逾期率方面看到的改善是一致的。当然，还款率的提高会减缓贷款增长率，但这是一种我们总是乐于接受的权衡，因为硬币的另一面是更好的信贷表现。

Now underneath the surface of this average improvement in paints, we are also seeing the portion of customers making just the minimum payment running somewhat above free pandemic levels. So while the average customer is doing well, some customers at the margin are likely feeling stress from inflation and elevated interest rates. Revolve rates. Let me turn to look at that. Revolve rates have stabilized over the past year but remain below pre-pandemic levels for our major products and segments. So that, again, is another healthy indicator -- a healthy indicator. Now none of these observations are conclusive on their own, but I think they are collectively helpful at giving us insight into credit and economic trends.

现在，在这种平均还款改善的表面之下，我们也看到仅支付最低还款额的客户比例略高于疫情前水平。因此，虽然平均客户表现良好，但一些边缘客户可能正感受到通胀和高利率带来的压力。循环利率。让我来看看这个。循环利率在过去一年中已经稳定下来，但对于我们的主要产品和细分市场来说，仍低于疫情前水平。所以，这又是另一个健康的指标——一个健康的指标。现在，这些观察本身都不是结论性的，但我认为它们共同有助于我们深入了解信贷和经济趋势。

Now there's another thing, Ryan, that we look at of course, is new account originations. And we look at our new originations. We see early performance that is consistent with our expectations. It's stable and even improving a bit vintage over vintage and consistent with pre-pandemic levels. Now this might be less of that observation may be more of a Capital One effect specifically because much of the stability from decisions we made starting back in 2020 to account for inflated bureau scores and competitive dynamics and the flood of fintech supply. And so I think our interpretation is our active management has probably offset some underlying worsening that has happened in the marketplace.

现在还有另一件事，Ryan，我们当然也会关注，那就是新账户的发放。我们观察我们的新发放账户。我们看到早期表现符合我们的预期。它很稳定，甚至在不同批次之间略有改善，并且与疫情前水平一致。现在，这种观察结果可能更多地是 Capital One 特有的效应，因为这种稳定性很大程度上源于我们从 2020 年开始做出的决策，以应对虚高的征信评分、竞争动态以及金融科技供应的泛滥。所以我认为我们的解读是，我们的积极管理可能抵消了市场上发生的一些潜在恶化。

The other metric we look at is recoveries and our recoveries inventory continues to rebuild, of course, from the prior normalization of charge-offs that should be a gradual tailwind to our losses over time all else being equal. So that's the strong credit situation that we see. And of course, especially in the current – uncertain environment, we're monitoring that very, very carefully.

我们关注的另一个指标是回收率，我们的回收库存当然在持续重建，这是先前核销正常化的结果，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会随着时间的推移逐渐成为我们损失的顺风。所以这就是我们看到的强劲的信贷状况。当然，尤其是在当前不确定的环境中，我们正在非常、非常仔细地监控这一点。

Let me turn and just talk about the latest in terms of spend trends in our card business and in auto. So let me start with card. The spend trends were largely stable through the end of the first quarter. In recent weeks, we've started to see an uptick in spend growth per customer relative to this time last year across our consumer segments. I would note we haven't observed this more recent trend in our small business card portfolio.

让我转而谈谈我们信用卡业务和汽车业务最新的支出趋势。先从信用卡开始。到第一季度末，支出趋势基本稳定。最近几周，我们开始看到，与去年同期相比，我们各个消费者细分市场的每客户支出增长有所上升。需要指出的是，我们在小企业信用卡组合中没有观察到这种最近的趋势。

Now some of this uptick is likely driven by the timing of the Easter holiday, which fell in April this year versus March last year. So we maybe should discount that a little bit. We've also seen a recent increase in retail spending, particularly electronics in the past few weeks. Maybe that's a pulling forward of purchases in light of the tariffs, we'll have to see over time. At the same time, we've seen some easing in the T&E growth and airfare in particular.

现在，这种上升的部分原因可能是复活节假期的时点影响，今年复活节在四月，而去年在三月。所以我们或许应该对此打点折扣。过去几周，我们还看到零售支出有所增加，尤其是电子产品。也许这是考虑到关税而提前购买，我们需要随着时间的推移来观察。与此同时，我们看到商旅支出（T&E）增长有所放缓，尤其是机票方面。

And the final thing I want to do is just talk about the auto patterns that we're seeing. While it's early, when we look at industry data, there appears to be a bit of a pull forward in auto purchases likely as consumers are trying to get ahead of tariff impacts. And we continue to monitor our application and origination volumes. I think also there is some early indication that auction prices are increasing more than seasonal norms. All of this is very early, but that would be what we see right at the margin.

最后我想谈谈我们在汽车领域看到的模式。虽然现在还为时过早，但当我们观察行业数据时，似乎汽车购买有一定程度的提前，可能是因为消费者试图赶在关税影响之前购买。我们将继续监控我们的申请和放款量。我认为还有一些早期迹象表明，拍卖价格的上涨幅度超过了季节性正常水平。所有这些都还处于非常早期的阶段，但这就是我们在边缘观察到的情况。

So with that, I'll turn it over to Andrew for your question.

就此，我把问题交给 Andrew 来回答。

Andrew Young

安德鲁·杨

Yes, Ryan, a few factors at play with respect to the allowance. Why don't I just start with our baseline forecast, and then I'll touch on water considerations. So for the baseline forecast, as Rich just talked about, our seasonally adjusted delinquency rates have been improving on a year-over-year basis since about October of last year and charge-offs have been improving for the last few months after you account for Walmart. And so when we take those observed credit results and then we take our baseline forecast, our baseline forecast at the end of March, we use consensus estimates. And so consensus estimates at that point looks quite similar to consensus estimates at the end of December. Unemployment was in the -- I think, peaking in the [4%, 3%] (ph) range and GDP growth around 2 and inflation in the high 2s coming down from there. And so if we take our observed credit results with that baseline forecast, what's baking in the oven resulted in an allowance release that would have been quite a bit larger than what we actually released this quarter.

是的，Ryan，关于准备金有几个因素在起作用。我先从我们的基准预测开始，然后再谈谈其他考虑因素。对于基准预测，正如 Rich 刚才提到的，自去年 10 月左右以来，我们经季节性调整的逾期率同比一直在改善，而在考虑了沃尔玛的影响后，过去几个月核销率也一直在改善。因此，当我们结合这些观察到的信贷结果和我们的基准预测时——我们在 3 月底的基准预测使用了市场普遍预期。当时的市场普遍预期与 12 月底的市场普遍预期非常相似。失业率当时——我认为，峰值在 [4%, 3%]（听不清）的范围内，GDP 增长率约为 2%，通货膨胀率在 2% 的高位并从此开始下降。因此，如果我们将观察到的信贷结果与该基准预测相结合，那么酝酿的结果本应导致准备金释放的规模比我们本季度实际释放的要大得多。

And so the effect of tamping down the magnitude of that allowance release was really our consideration to downside economic risks and greater uncertainty, that really manifested itself in the final days of the quarter. And so we more heavily considered our downside scenario, which includes more severe rising unemployment and renewed inflation relative to the downside scenario we had a quarter ago. And the favorable trends that I described then were partially offset by that greater consideration of the downside, as well as the uncertainties around the forecast. And all of that ultimately led to the roughly $450 million release you saw in the quarter.

因此，抑制准备金释放幅度的影响，实际上是我们对下行经济风险和更大不确定性的考量，这在本季度最后几天真正显现出来。因此，我们更着重地考虑了我们的下行情景，与一个季度前的下行情景相比，该情景包含了更严重的失业率上升和通胀重燃。我之前描述的有利趋势，部分被对下行风险的更大考量以及围绕预测的不确定性所抵消。所有这些最终导致了你在本季度看到的约 4.5 亿美元的准备金释放。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next question please.

请提下一个问题。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。您可以开始了。

Sanjay Sakhrani

桑杰·萨克拉尼

Thank you. Rich, Andrew. Rich, you mentioned you're fully mobilized to integrate. I'm just curious how we should think about the timing in terms of some of the milestones to achieve the synergies. For example, how long would it take for the debit conversion to happen and maybe a similar point on expenses?

谢谢。Rich，Andrew。Rich，您提到你们已经全面动员进行整合。我只是好奇我们应该如何看待实现协同效应的一些里程碑的时间安排。例如，借记卡转换需要多长时间，以及在费用方面可能需要多长时间？

Andrew Young

安德鲁·杨

Yes. Sanjay, as you said, we are still in the midst of doing our planning. But what I would highlight for you is based on what we know today, our assumption is that we are essentially just picking up all of the assumptions that we provided 14 months ago at deal announcement and pushing it back by a little less than 6 months because you'll recall, we assumed the transaction would close when we did the announcement in late Q4, early Q1, so a center date there of January 1. Now we're closing on May 18. I would point you back to the timing that we included in the announcement and just shift all of that back to correspond to the later closing date.

是的。Sanjay，正如你所说，我们仍在进行规划。但我想向你强调的是，根据我们目前所知，我们的假设是，我们基本上只是沿用了我们在 14 个月前宣布交易时提供的所有假设，并将其推迟了不到 6 个月，因为你会记得，我们在宣布交易时假设交易将在第四季度末或第一季度初完成，所以中心日期是 1 月 1 日。现在我们将在 5 月 18 日完成交易。我会建议你回顾我们在公告中包含的时间安排，并将其整体向后推移以对应较晚的交割日期。

Sanjay Sakhrani

桑杰·萨克拉尼

Okay. Great. And then maybe a follow-up on capital return. Obviously, you guys are well above the CET1 target, I think, Discover as well you've talked about sort of a phased migration back towards your target. Could you just discuss how we should think about it going forward in terms of when you might be able to start sort of elevating the amount of capital return? Thanks.

好的。太好了。然后也许是关于资本回报的后续问题。显然，你们远高于 CET1 目标，我想 Discover 也是如此，你们也谈到过要分阶段地回归目标。您能否谈谈我们未来应该如何考虑，即何时可能开始提高资本回报的数额？谢谢。

Andrew Young

安德鲁·杨

Yes. We're still operating as two independent companies, Sanjay. So at this point, our access to a lot of the more proprietary and confidential data has been limited. And after we close the transaction, we'll have access to the data, we need to do the analysis to determine what we believe is the capital need of the combined company. And in addition, we're in the midst of this year's CCAR, and we'll get our new SEB in June. And so as a result of that, I'd say, at least for the second quarter, it's reasonable to assume we'll likely maintain the pace we've been on, until we get to the other side of close and do that analysis. But once we've completed that work, we understand the importance of returning excess capital to shareholders, and we intend to do so.

是的。我们仍然是两家独立的公司在运营，Sanjay。因此，目前我们对许多更具专有性和机密性的数据的访问权限是有限的。在交易完成后，我们将能够访问数据，我们需要进行分析以确定我们认为合并后公司的资本需求是多少。此外，我们正处于今年的 CCAR（综合资本分析和审查）过程中，我们将在 6 月份获得新的 SEB（压力资本缓冲）。因此，我认为，至少在第二季度，可以合理地假设我们将可能维持我们一直以来的步伐，直到我们完成交易并进行该分析。但是一旦我们完成了这项工作，我们理解将多余资本返还给股东的重要性，并且我们打算这样做。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please.

请提下一个问题。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from Terry Ma with Barclays. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Terry Ma。您可以开始了。

Terry Ma

马特里 (Terry Ma)

Hi, thank you. Good evening. So you called out marketing was up 19% year-over-year. It seems like you're still seeing some compelling opportunities and are leaning in. So maybe talk about where you're seeing the best opportunities right now? And then also, how are you thinking about balancing that investment for growth versus risk management, particularly in subprime? Thank you.

嗨，谢谢。晚上好。您提到市场营销同比增长了 19%。看起来你们仍然看到一些具吸引力的机会并且正在加大投入。那么，能否谈谈你们目前在哪里看到了最好的机会？另外，你们是如何考虑平衡增长投资与风险管理，特别是在次级客群方面？谢谢。

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Yes. Terry, thank you and good evening. Our marketing investment continues to power the future growth of the company as we capitalize on opportunities that have become available from many of the choices we've made over the past years, but especially on the shoulders of our technology transformation. So our marketing investments generally fall into 3 categories.

是的。Terry，谢谢你，晚上好。我们的市场营销投资持续驱动公司的未来增长，因为我们正在利用过去多年我们所做出的许多选择所带来的机会，特别是依托于我们的技术转型。因此，我们的市场营销投资通常分为三类。

First is our investments to fuel customer growth, and we remain really excited about the opportunities that marketing is providing especially in our card business. The tech transformation has allowed us to leverage much more data and also more advanced modeling techniques, leveraging machine learning and AI. And the insights that we get from all of these advancements allow us to create more and more tailored solutions for customers, providing them with the right products and services when they need them.

首先是我们为促进客户增长所做的投资，我们对市场营销带来的机会仍然感到非常兴奋，尤其是在我们的信用卡业务中。技术转型使我们能够利用更多的数据以及更先进的建模技术， leveraging 机器学习和人工智能。我们从所有这些进步中获得的洞察力使我们能够为客户创造越来越量身定制的解决方案，在他们需要时为他们提供合适的产品和服务。

Another thing that's been going on is we've continued to expand the channels and the sources for generating new accounts. So that's kind of the basic right down the fairway marketing, very stimulus response kind of driven side of the business. Second is our continued investment to win at the top of the market with heavy spenders. And this has been a quest that we have been on for years, of course, and spent a lot of time talking about this. But our growth in heavy spenders provides long-term benefits to our business not only in generating a lot of spend growth but also because of what comes with franchise very low losses, low attrition and the lifting of the brand and really the lifting of, I think, all of our franchises across the company.

另一项正在进行的工作是我们持续扩展获取新账户的渠道和来源。所以这算是核心的市场营销，非常刺激-反应驱动型的一面。第二是我们持续投资以赢得高消费群体的顶级市场。当然，这是我们多年来一直在追求的目标，并且花了很多时间讨论这个问题。但我们在高消费群体中的增长为我们的业务带来了长期利益，不仅在于产生大量的消费增长，还在于随之而来的极低的损失、低流失率以及品牌提升，我认为这对我们公司所有的业务部门都有提升作用。

So, of course, acquiring these customers is expensive and requires a number of sustained investments in order to attract and retain them. So significant marketing investment significant upfront early spend bonuses also, of course, we continue to invest in the experiences that we're offering our high-end customers, including exclusive access and experiences that aren't available in the general marketplace like lounge access, our full-service travel portal and access to unique properties and events. And of course, we have the continued investment in brand. So we believe this opportunity is very big. This is a long-term quest we've been on for over a decade, so far. And while all the players in the card business do some effort to win at the top of the market, I think it's a much smaller number of players that are really leaning in and focused and doing the investments to put themselves in a position to win there.

因此，当然，获取这些客户成本高昂，需要持续进行多项投资才能吸引和留住他们。所以需要大量的市场营销投入，显著的前期早期消费奖励金，当然，我们还继续投资于我们为高端客户提供的体验，包括独家访问权和在一般市场上无法获得的体验，例如贵宾室使用权、我们的全方位服务旅游门户网站以及接触独特的资源和活动。当然，我们还有对品牌的持续投资。所以我们相信这个机会非常巨大。这是我们迄今为止已经进行了十多年的长期追求。虽然信用卡业务中的所有参与者都在努力赢得顶级市场，但我认为只有少数参与者真正在加大投入、专注并进行投资，使自己处于能够获胜的位置。

By the way, it's not lost on us that, that small list of most aggressive competitors at the top of the market is really leaning in to their marketing investments and their experiences. So the bar of competition is high, but I think the payoff is very large over the long run. The third area of marketing investment for Capital One is building our national bank. And we declared really over a decade ago that we were going to build a digital first full-service national bank. And this, of course, involves thin physical distribution across the nation in terms of branches in some markets and cafes in leading metropolitan areas. We've had a big investment in the digital capabilities for full service banking on a remote basis. And for most banks that are building most full-service banks, virtually all full-service banks, their marketing statement is their branches themselves.

顺便说一句，我们注意到，在顶级市场上那一小部分最具侵略性的竞争对手确实在加大他们的市场营销投资和体验投入。所以竞争门槛很高，但我认为从长远来看回报非常巨大。Capital One 的第三个市场营销投资领域是建设我们的全国性银行。我们在十多年前就宣布，我们将建立一个数字优先的全方位服务全国性银行。当然，这涉及到在全国范围内精简的实体分销网络，包括在一些市场设立分行和在主要大都市区设立咖啡馆式网点。我们对远程提供全方位服务的银行数字能力进行了大量投资。对于大多数正在建设全方位服务银行的银行，几乎所有全方位服务银行，他们的营销宣传就是他们的分行本身。

Capital One, by organically building a digital first full service bank, the role that marketing plays relative to physical distribution is just a different ratio there. And so we're leaning very heavily into that. But we are really pleased with the momentum we have there. And we're excited by the combination with Discover will give us more scale and more momentum in that space.

Capital One 通过有机地建立一个数字优先的全方位服务银行，市场营销相对于实体分销所扮演的角色比例就不同了。因此我们在这方面投入巨大。但我们对我们在这方面取得的势头感到非常满意。我们对与 Discover 的合并感到兴奋，这将为我们在这个领域带来更大的规模和更多的动力。

So those are the three sort of big areas that we're leaning into in marketing and the investments are significant. We're putting a lot of energy, of course, leveraging all of our -- we spent so many years building the measurement infrastructure to be able to measure before during and after how various investments are doing but pulling way up, this is really the engine that is driving a lot of the future growth of our company. And as you can see from some of the numbers that we're posting and some of the investment dollars we're putting into this, we are feeling very optimistic about our prospects.

所以这就是我们在市场营销方面加大投入的三个主要领域，而且投资是巨大的。我们投入了大量精力，当然，利用了我们所有的——我们花费了多年时间建立了评估体系，以便能够在投资前后和期间衡量各种投资的表现，但从宏观来看，这确实是驱动我们公司未来大量增长的引擎。从我们公布的一些数据和我们投入的投资金额中可以看出，我们对我们的前景感到非常乐观。

He also asked just what about the growth versus risk management and with the eye towards subprime. I think the consumer is in a good place. We are leaning into our marketing across the spectrum the subprime consumer actually has had a little bit of a faster rate of sort of curing post normalization of even relative to the rest of the spectrum as we've seen. So we continue to feel very good there. We're leaning into that.

Now of course, we know that the uncertainty out there, the tariff prospects and everything has us very, very vigilant because if there's a shock to the system, we would expect that could hit harder at that part of the market. But I would leave you with the following impression. We're still leaning in, but we're very, very vigilant watching every day for early indicators of problems.

当然，我们知道外部存在不确定性，关税前景等等都让我们非常、非常警惕，因为如果系统受到冲击，我们预计这可能会对那部分市场造成更严重的打击。但我想给你留下这样的印象：我们仍在加大投入，但我们非常、非常警惕，每天都在关注问题的早期迹象。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next question.

下一个问题。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Moshe Orenbuch。您可以开始了。

Moshe Orenbuch

摩西·奥伦布赫

Great. You just in the last answer mentioned that the Discovery transaction is going to kind of help advance kind of the national banking franchise. Hoping maybe you could kind of drill into that is when you think about the elements that either Discover brings or things you'd like to add to your national banking products? I mean, is rewards checking among them? Like what are the things that you think Capital One needs to do better to enhance that as you think about it going forward?

太好了。您在刚才的回答中提到，Discover 交易将有助于推进全国性银行业务。希望您能深入探讨一下，当您考虑 Discover 带来的要素或者您想添加到您的全国性银行产品中的东西时？我的意思是，奖励性支票账户是否在其中？比如，您认为 Capital One 需要在哪些方面做得更好来提升这项业务，展望未来？

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

So Moshe, if we pull way up on our national banking strategy, it's very, very differentiated from most banks. Obviously, most banks have -- to overstate it a little bit, a branch on every corner kind of thing, not really every corner these days. But it's physical distribution 1, 2 and 3, all about physical distribution and then creating the customer experiences to go along with that. And of course, also their strategies of most regional banks are out there trying to build national banks. And the way they're going to get there is through acquisitions. Now it's ironic, I'm going to make the comment. I'm going to -- in the wake of a few days ago announcing the regulators approved a major acquisition. But it's not the regular buying of a full-service branch bank-based bank.

Moshe，如果我们从宏观角度审视我们的全国性银行战略，它与大多数银行非常、非常不同。显然，大多数银行——稍微夸张一点说——在每个街角都有分行，虽然现在并非真的每个街角都有。但实体分销是第一、第二和第三位的，一切都围绕着实体分销，然后创造与之相匹配的客户体验。当然，大多数区域性银行的战略也是试图建立全国性银行。而他们实现这一目标的方式是通过收购。现在这有点讽刺，我要发表评论了。就在几天前监管机构批准了一项重大收购之后。但这并非通常意义上收购一家提供全方位服务、以分行为基础的银行。

So our national bank doesn't have, as it's in its growth agenda, buying other sort of regional and local banks. Our business model is in building a national bank is one that doesn't -- we haven't really seen an example in nature here in America of doing that. But the key there is we have -- we're trying to build a bank with leaner economics that comes from not having branches all over the place and then to take -- and also to be very modern in its technology and its digital experiences. And in terms of the customer base that we attract to self-select to a more digitally first kind of experience. And with that business model comes less expensive economics. And then what we've done is to pass the better economics on to the consumer in the form of very aggressive pricing with no fees no minimums and no overdraft fees.

所以我们的全国性银行在其增长议程中，并没有收购其他区域性或地方性银行的计划。我们建立全国性银行的商业模式是——我们在美国还没真正见过这样做的先例。但关键在于我们——我们试图建立一家经济模式更精简的银行，这种精简来自于没有遍地开花的分行，并且在技术和数字体验方面非常现代化。我们吸引的客户群体会自我选择更倾向于数字优先的体验。这种商业模式带来了成本更低的经济效益。然后我们所做的就是通过极具竞争力的定价将更好的经济效益传递给消费者，即无费用、无最低存款要求、无透支费。

So it is a streamlined economics, then margin aggressively priced business model. The benefit of the Discover acquisition relative to that, even though paradoxically, it's a bit of a paradox there because, of course, we are buying especially a credit card business is that the benefit of vertical integration with the network allows our thin margin business to strengthen its margins and allows us to lean in harder and invest even more in building organically this national bank, which has never really been done before. But that's the key way that the Discover acquisition is going to help turbocharge our national bank.

所以这是一个精简的经济模式，然后是利润率极具竞争力的定价商业模式。Discover 收购对此的好处在于，尽管有点矛盾，因为我们主要收购的是信用卡业务，但与网络垂直整合的好处在于，它能让我们的薄利业务加强其利润率，并使我们能够更积极地投入，甚至更多地投资于有机地建立这个以前从未真正实现过的全国性银行。但这就是 Discover 收购将帮助我们加速发展全国性银行的关键方式。

Moshe Orenbuch

摩西·奥伦布赫

Got it. Thanks. Maybe just keeping on the theme with Discover, recognizing that obviously, you don't run the company yet and haven't been inside. But just from what you know about the card business and its focus and what it's done and the fact that it's probably been less aggressively managed over the last somewhere between a year and two years, depending on when you start that. What do you think are the things that need to be done? And does that portfolio shrink before it grows? Any thoughts as to the Discover market and how to think about what you'd like to do with it?

明白了。谢谢。也许继续围绕 Discover 这个主题，认识到显然你们还没有运营这家公司，也没有深入了解内部情况。但仅就您对该信用卡业务及其重点、过往业绩以及可能在过去一到两年（取决于从何时算起）管理不够积极这一事实的了解。您认为需要做些什么？该投资组合在增长之前是否会萎缩？对于 Discover 的市场以及您打算如何处理它，有什么想法吗？

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Well, Moshe, we are very struck at how complementary their business model is relative to ours. So we have stretched across the credit spectrum to the tippy top down to -- into subprime. They, of course, have much more stuck to their knitting right in the sort of prime part of the marketplace. They have spent years and years optimizing that business in a way that I have great respect for relative to how to target the customers they want and the marketing and the message and the experience. We've also really come to appreciate just how exceptional some of their customer experiences are.

嗯，Moshe，我们对他们的商业模式与我们的互补性感到非常惊讶。我们已经将业务扩展到整个信用范围，从最高端一直到次级客群。而他们，当然，更多地专注于他们擅长的领域，即市场中的优质客群部分。他们花费了多年时间优化这项业务，我对他们如何定位目标客户、进行市场营销、传递信息以及提供体验的方式深表敬意。我们也真正开始欣赏到他们一些客户体验是多么出色。

You've seen, I don't know of any other card issuer that goes on national [DV] (ph) and does a lot of advertising about their servicing experience. I mean, not that we don't have great stories to tell, too. But I've always been struck, wow, they're on TV, talk about this thing. Well, when we look at just data that we've collected over time and we've collected a lot of it lately, data as an outsider looking at what people think about their customer experience, their servicing experience, some of their product experiences, they get very high marks. So what we feel that one of the most striking things about Discover is there focus on the customer, they are sticking to the knitting in their kind of one or a couple of sort of big segments and then having everything work backwards from winning in that space. So what we're going to do, even as we integrate and generate of course, efficiencies and the benefits of leveraging Capital One's technology, Capital One's risk management capabilities and a lot of things is very much have a great reference and respect for the business model they've created and making sure to preserve some of those really, really key success factors there. And so we're excited to jump in and do that, still 2 separate companies. So we're going to learn a lot more in the next few weeks. But this is going to be -- and a lot of acquisitions are just -- the goal of the acquisitions is just to take 2 companies squash them together and rip out the costs.

你看，我不知道还有哪家信用卡发行机构会在全国性的 [听不清] 上投放大量关于其服务体验的广告。我的意思是，并不是说我们也没有很棒的故事可以讲。但我总是感到惊讶，哇，他们在电视上谈论这个。嗯，当我们审视我们长期以来收集的数据，特别是最近收集的大量数据，作为局外人观察人们对其客户体验、服务体验以及一些产品体验的看法时，他们获得了非常高的评价。所以我们觉得 Discover 最引人注目的事情之一是他们对客户的关注，他们专注于自己擅长的一两个大细分市场，然后围绕在这些领域取胜来反向开展所有工作。因此，即使我们在整合并产生效率，利用 Capital One 的技术、风险管理能力等诸多优势的同时，我们要做的是非常尊重他们所创建的商业模式，并确保保留其中一些真正、真正关键的成功因素。所以我们很兴奋能参与进来并这样做，目前还是两家独立的公司。所以在接下来的几周里我们会学到更多。但这将会是——很多收购的目标仅仅是将两家公司合并在一起并削减成本。

I think that Discover brings us a growth platform. Both on the network side and with respect to their card franchise that allows us to preserve the best of what they do, leverage a lot of Capital One's capabilities that we bring and build something really special.

我认为 Discover 为我们带来了一个增长平台。无论是在网络方面，还是在其信用卡业务方面，这使我们能够保留他们做得最好的部分，利用我们带来的许多 Capital One 的能力，并打造出真正特别的东西。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next question please.

请提下一个问题。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from Rick Shane with JPMorgan. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。您可以开始了。

Rick Shane

里克·谢恩

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question this afternoon. Look, I think one thing that is pretty clear over the last few years, there's been a significant divergence in technology investment between Capital One and Discover. Obviously, you are very interested in the synergies. I'm curious, as you've gone through your due diligence process, how the technology stacks compare for each company? Is this going to be an easy transition to get the Discover systems onto the Capital One system? Or is it going to be sort of the equivalent of you're looking for folks who can code cobalt or something antiquated because of the more limited investment?

嘿，各位。感谢今天下午回答我的问题。看，我认为过去几年有一点非常清楚，那就是 Capital One 和 Discover 之间的技术投资存在显著差异。显然，你们对协同效应非常感兴趣。我很好奇，在你们进行尽职调查的过程中，两家公司的技术堆栈相比如何？将 Discover 的系统迁移到 Capital One 的系统上会是一个轻松的过渡吗？还是说，由于投资较为有限，这会有点像你们在寻找能编写 COBOL 或其他过时语言的人员？

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

So we are very benefited by the now a 12-year technology transformation that we have had at Capital One. And that includes a tremendous investment starting at the bottom of the tech stack up in building core infrastructure. And we're talking about going to the cloud, of course, applications that modernizing all of the 1,300 applications on which Capital One is built, doing a transformation of our data ecosystem and so on. The bottom of the tech stack investments that we have made are just ideally suited for doing an acquisition, of course, especially in a -- of a credit card company because Discover will be able to step right in on the shoulders of our own technology transformation, and we can generate a lot of both cost savings but even more importantly, move them, help them leverage a more modern tech stack along the way.

我们受益于 Capital One 至今已进行了 12 年的技术转型。这包括从技术堆栈底层开始构建核心基础设施的巨大投资。我们谈论的是上云，当然，还有现代化 Capital One 赖以建立的所有 1300 个应用程序，以及对我们的数据生态系统进行转型等等。我们在技术堆栈底层所做的投资非常适合进行收购，当然，特别是收购一家信用卡公司，因为 Discover 将能够直接站在我们自身技术转型的肩膀上，我们可以产生大量的成本节约，但更重要的是，帮助他们迁移并利用更现代化的技术堆栈。

Now they are a mainframe. They have data centers and mainframes even as they've also taken some of their business to the cloud. So we will be going back into the world of data centers. We've been there, done that. And we have a lot of experience with respect to managing those environments, but also over time, moving those environments to the cloud.

现在他们使用大型机。他们拥有数据中心和大型机，尽管他们也已将部分业务迁移到云端。所以我们将重返数据中心的世界。我们对此有过经验。我们在管理这些环境方面经验丰富，并且随着时间的推移，也擅长将这些环境迁移到云端。

The new thing for Capital One from a technology point of view, of course, is going to be the network. And running a global network is a really very complex and very high stakes activity. And we think Discover has done that very well the Capital One way is to lean into technology, and I'm sure that we will together go on a great journey with their network to help over time take a strong network that they built and modernize it over time. But we should note that this will be a return for a number of years for Capital One into the world of data centers. But we don't think this is a step into the past. What we do think is an ability to leverage the scale and stand on the shoulders of what we have built and to take a really extraordinary company and bring it on to more modern technology and generate even better experiences and economics.

当然，从技术的角度来看，对 Capital One 来说的新事物将是网络。运营一个全球网络是一项非常复杂且风险极高的活动。我们认为 Discover 在这方面做得非常好，而 Capital One 的方式是拥抱技术，我相信我们将与他们的网络一起踏上伟大的征程，随着时间的推移，帮助他们将已经建立的强大网络进行现代化改造。但我们应该注意到，这将意味着 Capital One 在未来几年内将重返数据中心的世界。但我们不认为这是倒退。我们认为这是利用规模、站在我们已建成成果的肩膀上，将一家真正卓越的公司引入更现代化的技术，并创造更好体验和经济效益的能力。

Rick Shane

里克·谢恩

Got it. But it sounds like you will be on their tech stack for a couple of years and in their data center still?

明白了。但听起来你们在未来几年仍将使用他们的技术堆栈并留在他们的数据中心？

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Well, on the network side, so we have -- on the credit card side, we have a whole road map of how we're going to take their credit card business and move it on to our tech stack. On the network side, given that we don't have the equivalent on our side, we don't have a road map of a different destination. What we want to do is go in there and see what they've got. And we would like to take that on the same journey that we've taken all the rest of Capital One. But I think this is going to be measured in a whole bunch of years because they have built a global network and that's not going to be a quick kind of transformation to put that thing in the cloud.

嗯，在网络方面是这样。在信用卡方面，我们有一整套路线图，规划如何将他们的信用卡业务迁移到我们的技术堆栈上。在网络方面，鉴于我们这边没有对应的部分，我们没有一个不同目的地的路线图。我们想做的是进去看看他们有什么。我们希望让它经历与 Capital One 其他所有部分相同的旅程。但我认为这将需要很多年的时间，因为他们已经建立了一个全球网络，将其迁移到云端不会是一个快速的转型过程。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next question please.

请提下一个问题。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore ISI. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。您可以开始了。

John Pancari

约翰·潘卡里

Good evening. I appreciate that you cited no change to the Discover synergies or integration. I also know you indicated you don't own the company yet. So it's tough to completely look under the hood. Is there anything about the backdrop today, the regulatory developments, the competitive backdrop or anything that you see today that you think could lead to a revision to those synergies once you close the deal in May? And then separately, you didn't mention 15% EPS accretion of [27%] (ph) or to 14% CET1 on close. Just wondering if there's any change there. Thanks.

晚上好。我注意到您提到 Discover 的协同效应或整合计划没有变化。我也知道您表示尚未拥有该公司，所以很难完全了解内部情况。考虑到当前的背景、监管发展、竞争格局或您今天看到的任何情况，是否有任何因素可能导致在 5 月份完成交易后对这些协同效应进行修订？另外，您没有提到 [27%] (ph) 的 15% 每股收益增长或交易完成时达到 14% 的 CET1。只是想知道这方面是否有任何变化。谢谢。

Andrew Young

安德鲁·杨

John, to the last point, in terms of the assumptions of metric. First of all, with CET1 again, that was just what we assumed at the time of the announcement where both companies would be combined for CET1. And so you can look haven't yet seen Discover's results for Q1, but you'll be able to do that math quite easily of where the combined CET1 will be. And then I'd refer you back to the earlier question in terms of our capital plans from there. With respect to metrics like EPS accretion or ROIC, a number of things have changed over the course of the last year, not the least of which is the denominator there. And so as we just take a step back and look at the overall numbers and the moving parts. So I would just say the strategic and financial benefits that we assumed 14 months ago remain fully intact. And we're just excited today as we were at the time of the announcement. And then with respect to the regulatory environment and backdrop, I would sort of lump that in with a number of things have changed over the course of the last 14 months, but nothing that we are specifically pointing to in terms of the strategic implications at all to the deal.

John，关于最后一点，关于指标的假设。首先，关于 CET1，这只是我们在宣布交易时假设两家公司合并后的 CET1 水平。你可以查看——我们还没看到 Discover 第一季度的业绩，但你很快就能轻松计算出合并后的 CET1 水平。然后，关于我们之后的资本计划，我会请你参考之前关于这个问题的回答。至于像每股收益增长或 ROIC 这样的指标，过去一年中有很多因素发生了变化，其中分母的变化尤为重要。因此，当我们退一步审视整体数据和变动因素时，我只想说，我们 14 个月前假设的战略和财务效益仍然完全有效。我们今天和宣布交易时一样兴奋。至于监管环境和背景，我会将其归结为过去 14 个月里发生变化的众多因素之一，但我们没有特别指出任何对交易具有战略意义的影响。

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

John, let me just also just say a few things. And of course, we're still separate public companies, so we won't have full access to Discovery's information until after we close the acquisition. But so we continue to expect that we'll achieve the synergies that we estimated when we announced the deal based on the integration budget that we estimated at the announcement. And on the risk management side to Andrew's point, we've always said look, we believe that's going to be a big investment. We continue to believe it's going to be a big investment. They're well down that path. We haven't -- from a far, haven't seen anything to change our estimate for what that will take. But of course, we of course, will do whatever it takes to get there, but we have a similar view of the magnitude of what the undertaking is as we had before.

John，让我也说几句。当然，我们仍然是独立的上市公司，所以在完成收购之前，我们无法完全获取 Discover 的信息。但我们仍然预计，基于我们在宣布交易时估算的整合预算，我们将实现当时估算的协同效应。关于风险管理方面，正如 Andrew 所指出的，我们一直说，我们相信这将是一项重大投资。我们仍然相信这将是一项重大投资。他们在这方面已经取得了很大进展。我们从远处观察，没有看到任何迹象表明需要改变我们对此所需投入的估计。当然，我们肯定会不遗余力地实现目标，但我们对这项任务规模的看法与之前相似。

I want to also just make a comment about sort of long-term opportunity. When we announced the deal, we also said that we saw potentially significant long-term strategic and economic opportunities that we did not include in our synergy estimates or the deal model. This would involve moving even more of our business onto the Discover network than what we put into the deal model. The path to get there is to build international acceptance of the Discover Network and to enhance and elevate the Discover global network brand. And the more we thought about that, we believe that brand investment is better made as the international acceptance gets to, I'd say, the good place. But as it gets to an even better place, that's probably more when we would lean into really building the sort of global network brand.

我还想就长期机遇发表一些评论。当我们宣布交易时，我们也说过，我们看到了潜在的重大长期战略和经济机遇，这些机遇并未包含在我们的协同效应估算或交易模型中。这将涉及将我们更多的业务转移到 Discover 网络上，超出我们放入交易模型的范围。实现这一目标的途径是建立 Discover 网络的国际受理度，并提升 Discover 全球网络品牌。我们越深入思考，就越相信，当国际受理度达到一个良好水平时，进行品牌投资是更合适的。但当它达到一个更好的水平时，那可能更是我们真正投入建立全球网络品牌的时候。

Like many investments we've made over the years, we believe that these investments are longer term in nature and will generate significant benefits that will grow and accumulate over time. So what we're saying here is we had a deal model for very kind of close in benefits that we saw and the associated costs, and that's very much what we see. And then additionally, we are excited about longer-term possibilities that will take some -- that's a longer-term quest, that's investments over and a more extended period of time with benefits that would transcend things that we put into the deal model.

就像我们多年来所做的许多投资一样，我们相信这些投资本质上是长期的，并将产生随着时间推移而增长和累积的显著效益。所以我们想说的是，我们有一个交易模型，针对我们看到的非常近期的效益和相关成本，这与我们现在看到的情况非常吻合。此外，我们对长期的可能性感到兴奋，但这需要一些时间——这是一个更长期的探索，是更长时期的投资，其带来的效益将超越我们放入交易模型的那些。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next question please.

请提下一个问题。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自美国银行的 Mihir Bhatia。您可以开始了。

Mihir Bhatia

米希尔·巴蒂亚

Hi congrats and thank you for taking my question. Just wanted to talk a little bit about just the uncertain macro. Maybe, Rich, it's been a while since we've had what you would call maybe a normal recession. Obviously, we had COVID a few years back. But I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about just the recession resiliency at Capital One, maybe some of the factors or some of the levers that you can pull if you start seeing the macro deteriorate? And just how is it different now than the last time between 10, 15 years since we had one. So just how is Capital One different between the mix changing as you leaned into higher spending improvements in technology. Just how is Capital One different from a recession resilience point of view?

嗨，恭喜并感谢您回答我的问题。只是想谈谈当前不确定的宏观环境。也许，Rich，距离我们经历您可能称之为“正常衰退”的情况已经有一段时间了。显然，几年前我们经历了 COVID。但我只是想知道您是否可以谈谈 Capital One 的衰退韧性，也许谈谈如果宏观经济开始恶化，你们可以利用的一些因素或杠杆？与上次（大约 10 到 15 年前）相比，现在情况有何不同？考虑到你们业务组合的变化、对更高支出和技术改进的倾斜，Capital One 现在有何不同？从衰退韧性的角度来看，Capital One 有何不同？

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Thank you, Mihir. So it's interesting you use the word normal recession. And of course, I smile as I say that because you're right, certainly COVID, it's hard to learn much if anything in COVID. Well, given that, by the way credit exploded to the best place it's ever been. We'll start with that anomaly. But, of course, our whole business model works backwards from resilience. That's what it's all about. And every underwriting decision, we underwrite to something quite a bit more stressed than the current environment. So we look in the rearview mirror to see results, and then we stress it in every underwriting decision that we make.

谢谢你，Mihir。你用“正常衰退”这个词很有趣。当然，我说这话时笑了，因为你是对的，当然是 COVID，在 COVID 期间很难学到什么（如果有的话）。嗯，顺便说一句，考虑到这一点，信贷状况爆发式地达到了有史以来的最佳水平。我们就从这个反常现象说起吧。但是，当然，我们整个商业模式都是从韧性出发反向构建的。这就是核心所在。在每一个承保决策中，我们都是基于比当前环境压力大得多的情景进行承保的。所以我们回顾过去看结果，然后在我们做出的每一个承保决策中都进行压力测试。

We, of course, I think the whole stress testing exercise that the Fed has led has really, I think, to help push all institutions to get more rigorous in their modeling in that. And we put a lot of energy into that, but I tip my hat to the -- I think some of the resilience modeling that all banks are encouraged to do. And so one needs significant buffers on the capital side buffers in terms of margins and then buffers in terms of flexibility as well.

当然，我认为美联储主导的整个压力测试活动确实推动了所有机构在其建模方面更加严谨。我们在这方面投入了大量精力，但我对所有银行都被鼓励进行的韧性建模表示敬意。因此，需要在资本方面有显著的缓冲，在利润率方面有缓冲，在灵活性方面也需要缓冲。

So one of the real benefits of having a credit card business well, one of the sort of striking things about a credit card business in a, let's call it, a normal recession, Mihir, is that spending tends to -- and consumers tend to pull back. And so you actually get some relief on the balance sheet side. The Fed does not model it that way because they insist that companies continue to lean in and crank up the growth even though empirically, we have never done that in recessions and so on. So you've got the flexibility with respect to the -- there's balance sheet flexibility. The marketing, of course, we have a very big marketing budget. There's recession flexibility there.

所以，拥有信用卡业务的一个真正好处是，嗯，在所谓的“正常衰退”中，Mihir，信用卡业务一个显著的特点是支出往往会减少，消费者倾向于缩减开支。所以你实际上在资产负债表方面得到了一些缓解。美联储的模型并非如此，因为他们坚持要求公司即使在衰退中也要继续投入并推动增长，尽管根据经验，我们从未在衰退中这样做过等等。所以你在资产负债表方面具有灵活性。市场营销方面，当然，我们有非常大的营销预算。这方面也存在衰退期的灵活性。

I would note that some of our marketing investments, things like lounges, some of the investments at the top of the market are a little more fixed in nature than one might just think about because you can -- when you're sending out solicitations, you can just stop doing that or do a lot less of it. So there is flexibility on the marketing side. As a percent of the entire marketing budget is probably a little less sort of instantly flexible than it once was, but you have that as well. There are levers within the business on product structures and so on that are additional flexibility.

我想指出，我们的一些营销投资，比如贵宾休息室，一些针对高端市场的投资，其性质比人们想象的要固定一些，因为当你发送营销邮件时，你可以直接停止发送或减少发送量。所以在营销方面存在灵活性。占整个营销预算的百分比可能不像以前那样具有即时灵活性，但你仍然拥有这种灵活性。在业务内部，产品结构等方面也存在提供额外灵活性的杠杆。

One thing I would point out in the last “normal recession”, which Capital One, I think, had a pretty great performance during, I would point out for all of us card players we had a majority of our balance sheet of our card balance sheet with -- our card assets were off balance sheet. And so next time around, we won't have some of the benefits that we had in terms the balance sheet pressures there. We're under CECL, of course, as well. But if I pull way up on this, your question goes near and dear to what we talk about every day to take our business model, distress it as we underwrite it, to stress it as we manage it, every choice that we make. And I think that paradoxically, the unsecured credit card business. I think, has really great resilience to it. And I say paradoxically, because people love to have assets that are collateral. But if you look at most of the bad things that have happened in the world of banking, they happened that the collateral has a collapse in value. And so the business becomes a lot more unsecured than one thing. The reality of the card business, it is unsecured to start with. And we underwrite it in full knowledge of that and build in the buffers and flexibility to be resilient when really bad times come.

我想指出一点，在上次“正常衰退”期间，我认为 Capital One 的表现相当不错，但对于我们所有信用卡从业者来说，当时我们大部分的信用卡资产负债表——我们的信用卡资产是表外资产。所以下一次，我们在资产负债表压力方面就不会有当时的一些好处了。当然，我们现在也遵循 CECL（当前预期信用损失模型）。但如果我从更高层面来看，你的问题触及了我们每天都在讨论的核心：采用我们的商业模式，在承保时进行压力测试，在管理时进行压力测试，在我们做出的每一个选择中都这样做。而且我认为，看似矛盾的是，无担保信用卡业务实际上具有非常好的韧性。我说看似矛盾，是因为人们喜欢拥有有抵押品的资产。但如果你看看银行业发生的大多数坏事，它们发生时抵押品的价值都崩溃了。因此，业务变得比想象中更无担保。信用卡业务的现实是，它从一开始就是无担保的。我们在充分了解这一点的情况下进行承保，并建立缓冲和灵活性，以便在真正困难时期保持韧性。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Rich, just in the spirit of what's different this time than the last time maybe a word about we're in a really different place in the technology world and the capabilities that, that gives us to sort of look at way more data and way more algorithms in our underwriting and fine-tune things around the edges. That's also a big change.

Rich，就这次与上次有何不同的精神而言，也许可以说说我们在技术领域处于一个完全不同的位置，以及这赋予我们的能力，使我们能够在承保中查看更多的数据和算法，并在细微之处进行调整。这也是一个巨大的变化。

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Well, the ability we can certainly move quite a bit faster than ever before. It's one thing to decide on credit policy changes. It's another thing for any company to be able to implement it right away. So with the ability to move quickly the ability to gather data at an incredibly granular level across so many different slices of the business is very valuable. The ability to leverage machine learning and AI to diagnostically help us see variances and aberrations that might take humans some precious months to sort of identify. So I think that one of the big benefits of our tech transformation is the ability to have way better granularity and monitoring. And the monitoring has the opportunity to be full file real-time and diagnostic in its nature, and these things can really help when the economy turns.

嗯，我们的行动能力肯定比以往任何时候都要快得多。决定信贷政策变更是​​一回事，任何公司能够立即实施又是另一回事。因此，快速行动的能力，以及在业务的许多不同层面以极其精细的粒度收集数据的能力，都非常有价值。利用机器学习和人工智能来诊断性地帮助我们发现差异和异常情况的能力，而人类可能需要宝贵的几个月才能识别出来。所以我认为我们技术转型的一大好处是能够实现更好的粒度和监控。而且这种监控有机会是全文件、实时和诊断性的，这些在经济转向时真的很有帮助。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Thanks. Next question please.

谢谢。请提下一个问题。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自富国银行的 Don Fandetti。您可以开始了。

Don Fandetti

唐·范德蒂

Rich, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the auto lending business. in terms of how you're thinking about loan growth. You've got a lot of different dynamics like tariffs going on. Are you still leaning in? And do you think that there will be the demand to support that growth?

Rich，我想知道您是否可以谈谈汽车贷款业务。关于您对贷款增长的看法。现在有很多不同的动态，比如关税问题。您是否仍在积极投入？您认为会有足够的需求来支持这种增长吗？

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

So well, we feel certainly great about the auto business. You've seen the delinquency and loss performance in the auto business, and it's really quite striking how strong it is. Our auto credit performance consistently strong, as a result of the proactive choices we made over the past years where we trimmed around the edges, in card, we trimmed around the edges. But in auto, we did even more -- we pulled back sharply in '22 and 2023 in response to the combination of margin pressure, normalizing credit and inflated vehicle values. But that's put us in a really strong position now with respect to the auto credit performance that you see.

嗯，我们对汽车业务当然感觉很好。您已经看到了汽车业务的拖欠率和损失表现，其强劲程度确实相当惊人。我们的汽车信贷表现持续强劲，这是由于我们过去几年做出的积极主动的选择，我们在信用卡业务边缘进行了削减，在汽车业务中，我们做得更多——我们在 22 年和 2023 年大幅收缩，以应对利润压力、信贷正常化和车辆价值虚高的综合影响。但这使我们现在在您看到的汽车信贷表现方面处于非常有利的位置。

Now from a growth point of view, over the past year, we've leaned into the growth to take advantage of the opportunities that we see in the market. You've seen our origination volumes. I think they were like 22% higher on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter, and outstandings have now finally moved and were up, I think, 5% year-over-year. We have invested very heavily in technology in the auto business, both in terms of credit underwriting, but also in terms of building our Navigator platform to allow customers and dealers to use the platform to help for a customer to be able to see what the financing on any vehicle on -- in any lots in America and a fraction of a second, what the financing for that individual would be. And so from a customer point of view and then a dealer point of view in terms of helping the customer get to the right place with their financing. This platform has also been beneficial with respect to generating good volumes and helping customers both consumers and the dealers.

现在从增长的角度来看，过去一年，我们积极推动增长，以利用我们在市场上看到的机会。您已经看到了我们的发放量。我认为第一季度同比增长了约 22%，未偿还余额现在终于有所变动，我认为同比增长了 5%。我们在汽车业务的技术方面投入了大量资金，无论是在信贷承保方面，还是在构建我们的 Navigator 平台方面，该平台允许客户和经销商使用该平台，帮助客户在瞬间就能看到美国任何停车场上任何车辆的融资方案，以及针对该个人的具体融资方案。因此，从客户的角度，以及从经销商帮助客户获得合适融资的角度来看，这个平台在产生良好业务量和帮助消费者及经销商方面都非常有益。

So we have a lot of momentum in the business. So now you ask about tariffs. Certainly, I think if tariffs are -- if the tariff wars sort of really continue on, the auto business is I think might be really quite impacted because the immediate effect would be an almost certain increase in vehicle prices. And that would have sort of mixed effects on auto credit. But with production costs rising, supply chain costs rising, you could just really end up with vehicle value disruption in the business. And then we kind of say, well, how would higher vehicle prices, what would be the impact on our auto business, it would actually support the credit performance of our back book by improving equity positions for borrowers and increasing the recovery rates, but for new originations, higher vehicle prices would be a headwind both in terms of consumer demand and in terms of credit.

所以我们在业务上势头很猛。现在你问到关税问题。当然，我认为如果关税——如果关税战真的持续下去，汽车业务我认为可能会受到相当大的影响，因为直接影响几乎肯定是车辆价格上涨。这会对汽车信贷产生复杂的影响。但随着生产成本上升、供应链成本上升，你最终可能会面临业务中的车辆价值混乱。然后我们会说，好吧，更高的车辆价格会对我们的汽车业务产生什么影响？它实际上会通过改善借款人的权益状况和提高回收率来支持我们现有贷款组合的信贷表现，但对于新的贷款发放来说，更高的车辆价格在消费者需求和信贷方面都将是不利因素。

And just one other thing to just keep in mind, keep in mind whenever there is tariffs that might gyrate quite a bit. even in the case where tariffs are abruptly removed at some point, you can see vehicle values drop abruptly, which can sort of adversely affect credit in a business like this one. So basically pulling way up, we feel great about our auto business, great about the position we're in and the traction that we're getting. We feel good about the consumer right now. And so we are still leaning in, but it's with a very watchful eye with respect to this uncertain economy.

还有一件事要记住，要记住，只要有关税，情况就可能会大幅波动。即使在某个时候关税突然取消的情况下，你也可能会看到车辆价值突然下跌，这可能会对像这样的业务的信贷产生不利影响。所以总的来说，我们对我们的汽车业务感觉很好，对我们所处的地位和获得的牵引力感觉很好。我们现在对消费者感觉良好。因此，我们仍在积极投入，但对这个不确定的经济保持着非常警惕的目光。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next, question. Please.

下一个问题。请。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research Securities. You may procced.

我们的下一个问题来自 Wolfe Research Securities 的 Bill Carcache。您可以开始了。

Bill Carcache

比尔·卡卡奇

Rich and Andrew. Following up on your expense commentary and the choices you're making. Do you think, Rich, may be necessary to adjust your investment priorities as you continue to build out your various businesses while now also allocating capital to the build-out of the network business. And if you could speak more broadly to how focused you are on managing expenses for the revenue environment and generating positive operating leverage along the way as you make these investments?

Rich 和 Andrew。接着你们关于费用和所做选择的评论。Rich，您认为在继续发展各项业务的同时，现在还需要将资本分配给网络业务的建设，是否有必要调整您的投资重点？您能否更广泛地谈谈，在进行这些投资的过程中，您如何专注于根据收入环境管理费用并产生正的经营杠杆？

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Thanks so much, Bill. We've been focused on operating efficiency improvement for years, as you know. And we'd like to go back to 2013 because that's when we began our technology transformation and started really leaning into investments in technology from that point all the way to today. Over that time, we've driven about 700 basis points of improvement even as we've continued to make significant investments in technology and this improvement was driven by significant revenue growth powered by marketing and credit breakthroughs enabled by the technology transformation as well as expense efficiency from process automation, analog cost savings and reduction in legacy tech vendor costs. So it is not an accident that operating efficiency ratio improvements and significant tech investments have been traveling companions. And that's because technology investments and efficiency improvement are on a shared path as modern technology is the engine of sustained revenue growth and digital productivity gains.

非常感谢，Bill。如您所知，多年来我们一直专注于提高运营效率。我们想追溯到 2013 年，因为那时我们开始了技术转型，并从那时起一直到今天，真正开始加大对技术的投资。在此期间，即使我们持续进行重大的技术投资，我们也实现了约 700 个基点的改善。这一改善是由技术转型带来的营销和信贷突破所驱动的显著收入增长，以及流程自动化、模拟成本节约和遗留技术供应商成本降低所带来的费用效率共同推动的。因此，运营效率比率的改善和重大的技术投资相伴而行并非偶然。这是因为技术投资和效率提升是同一条道路上的，因为现代技术是持续收入增长和数字生产力提升的引擎。

Now 2023 and 2024 witnessed quite a big improvement in the efficiency ratio. I do want to point out that with the late fee risk hanging over the last couple of years. There was some deferral of investments. So with that risk effectively off the table, there is a little catch up there that you see in our numbers now. But our story on efficiency continues to be the same. And we continue to have our eyes very focused on the longer-term where operating efficiency continues to be an important way that we generate returns.

现在，2023 年和 2024 年见证了效率比率的相当大的改善。我确实想指出，由于过去几年滞纳金风险的存在，有一些投资被推迟了。因此，随着该风险基本消除，您现在可以在我们的数据中看到一些追赶性的投入。但我们关于效率的故事仍然是一样的。我们继续非常关注长期目标，其中运营效率仍然是我们创造回报的重要途径。

To your point about priorities, it is not lost on us that we have a lot of opportunities that we are blessed with. We have all the opportunities that come from moving up the tech stack and the more we move up the tech stack, the more there are sort of direct benefits to the business in the form of better customer experiences, more opportunities, better leveraging of data to create marketing and credit opportunities and things like that. And we have the Discover deal. And I've talked many times about there is the sort of immediate opportunity that we capture in our deal model. But then there is the longer-term opportunity that comes from really investing in the network, especially internationally, investing in the brand. And then really being able to put more business on the network.

关于您提到的优先事项，我们很清楚我们拥有很多幸运的机会。我们拥有所有来自提升技术堆栈的机会，我们越往技术堆栈上层移动，业务就能获得更多直接的好处，例如更好的客户体验、更多的机会、更好地利用数据来创造营销和信贷机会等等。我们还有 Discover 的交易。我多次谈到，我们的交易模型中捕捉到了一些直接的机会。但还有更长期的机会，来自于真正投资于网络，特别是在国际上，投资于品牌。然后真正能够将更多业务放到这个网络上。

So in that environment, we spend a lot of time on prioritization and it's a good problem to have as many opportunities as we do. But to the point of your question, we very much keep our big picture in mind and the measuring stick associated with our journey and a very important one of those is our efficiency journey. Thank you.

因此，在这种环境下，我们花费大量时间进行优先排序，拥有如此多的机会是一个好问题。但回到您的问题点，我们非常注重全局，并关注与我们发展历程相关的衡量标准，其中一个非常重要的就是我们的效率提升之旅。谢谢。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next question please.

下一个问题，请。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from John Hecht with Jefferies. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 John Hecht。您可以开始了。

John Hecht

约翰·赫克特

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I guess my question is around marketing synergies. On one hand, it seems that the amount of media advertising maybe the physical mailings to the commerce, I mean 1 plus 1 is not going to equal 2, I think, with those endeavors. On the other hand, Rich, I think you're interested in really focusing on continued brand development, particularly on the global network. So how do we think about the kind of puts and takes of the opportunities for synergies versus the desire to spend and invest in the brand.

下午好。谢谢您回答我的问题。我想我的问题是关于营销协同效应的。一方面，媒体广告的数量，也许是给商业客户的实体邮件，我的意思是，我认为在这些努力下，1 加 1 不会等于 2。另一方面，Rich，我认为您真正感兴趣的是持续的品牌发展，特别是在全球网络方面。那么，我们应该如何看待协同效应的机会与在品牌上支出和投资的意愿之间的利弊权衡呢？

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

So Discover. And are you referring to the Discover brand, the Capital One brand, are you referring to both there as your particularly a Discover Point and the synergies associated with Discover?

John Hecht

约翰·赫克特

Correct.

是的。

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Yes. So it's a real blessing to have the opportunity in this acquisition to bring on board with a rare, well-recognized very strong brand. And so we now have two companies with very strong brands. So what we plan to do is we plan to continue, of course, I shouldn't say, of course, because all of this, we've done a lot of thinking about, but we are very, in our views that the Discover Branded is absolutely the right brand for the network and we will continue to invest in that brand and especially build the credibility and the capabilities globally with respect to the brand.

是的。所以，这次收购能引入一个罕见的、广为人知且非常强大的品牌，确实是一个幸事。因此，我们现在拥有两家拥有非常强大品牌力的公司。我们的计划是继续——当然，我不应该说当然，因为所有这些我们都经过了深思熟虑——但我们非常认同，Discover 品牌绝对是网络的正确品牌，我们将继续投资该品牌，特别是在全球范围内建立该品牌的信誉和能力。

We will also continue the Discover brand on the credit card side. It will be more of a really powerful product brand. Obviously, it's not going to be a corporation brand anymore, but we intend to have it as a strong product brand, and it goes back to what I think is the collective -- the combination of the business model they've created that has generated such amazing results over the year, which the brand plays an important role there. So we will continue to invest in that.

我们还将在信用卡方面继续使用 Discover 品牌。它将更多地成为一个真正强大的产品品牌。显然，它不再是一个公司品牌，但我们打算让它成为一个强大的产品品牌，这要归功于我认为是他们创造的商业模式的集合——这种组合多年来产生了如此惊人的成果，而品牌在其中扮演了重要角色。所以我们将继续在这方面进行投资。

Now there are some savings around the edges that we can do in our collective marketing campaigns, I am sure. So there's some benefit there. And I want to make one other comment about investing in the network brand. That is something that we don't plan to come roaring out of this acquisition on national TV. We’re really leaning into the network brand. What we much more plan to do is -- we believe that the synergies and the whole moves that we have talked about at the time we announced our deal of moving our entire debit business and a portion of our credit card business onto the network. We believe that can be done within the context of the current brand and the acceptance and the capabilities that Discover has built so skillfully.

现在，我相信在我们共同的营销活动中，可以在一些边缘领域实现一些节省。所以这方面会有一些好处。关于投资网络品牌，我还想补充一点。我们不打算在收购完成后立刻就在全国电视上大张旗鼓地宣传。我们真正要加大投入的是网络品牌。我们更倾向于做的计划是——我们相信，在我们宣布交易时谈到的将我们整个借记卡业务和一部分信用卡业务转移到该网络的协同效应和整体举措，可以在 Discover 已经如此巧妙地建立起来的现有品牌、受理度和能力的背景下完成。

What we need to do in order to generate longer-term opportunity is to build the acceptance internationally up to a sort of you know it when you see it point when it's the right time to lean into brand development of a global brand, a global acceptance and so that -- in terms of the brand spend there, that's more of a delayed thing. It is something that we certainly plan to lean into overtime, but that would come as we see it today, that would come sort of after we have gotten the international acceptance to sort of when you see a point that it's ready to really take this story on TV.

为了创造长期机会，我们需要做的是将国际受理度提升到一个显而易见的程度，那时才是加大投入发展全球品牌、全球受理度的合适时机。因此，就品牌支出而言，这更像是一个延迟的事情。这当然是我们计划随着时间推移而加大投入的事情，但根据我们目前的看法，这将在我们将国际受理度提升到可以真正在电视上宣传这个故事的程度之后才会发生。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please.

下一个问题，请。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from Erika Najarian with UBS. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自瑞银集团 (UBS) 的 Erika Najarian。您可以开始了。

Erika Najarian

埃里卡·纳贾里安

Good evening. Just two quick follow-up questions. First is for you, Andrew. I'm just going all the way back to Ryan's question on ACL. Is there any way to have a neat answer on what the weighted average unemployment rate would be if we took into account the heavier weighting on the downside scenario. And as we look forward for Capital One stand-alone. How should we think about the ACL ratio given improved credit performance relative to the heightened macro uncertainty? And I did have a follow-up.

晚上好。只有两个简短的后续问题。第一个是问您的，Andrew。我想回到 Ryan 关于信贷损失准备金 (ACL) 的问题。如果考虑到下行情景的更大权重，有没有办法给出一个关于加权平均失业率的明确答案？展望 Capital One 的独立运营，考虑到信贷表现改善与宏观不确定性加剧的对比，我们应该如何看待 ACL 比率？我还有一个后续问题。

Andrew Young

安德鲁·杨

Yes. In terms of the weighted edge, Erica, our process is one where we take the baseline and then apply various considerations to the downside scenario and uncertainties. So it's not a formulaic multiple scenarios with multiple probabilities that allow us to give you a weighted average a leverage number, which is why we kind of give the qualitative description there. And then in terms of how we think about things looking ahead with the allowance, look, if we continue to see near-term favorability in our credit performance, that's going to bring down coverage all else equal over time, if we see a meaningful worsening in economic outlooks or changes in consumer credit behavior from what we see today that could put upward pressure on our coverage and just given the heightened uncertainty in which we're living at this point, I don't want to try to project where that's going to land a quarter from now until we'll go through our full process at the end of -- in the second quarter, and we'll see where the allowance ultimately lands.

是的。关于加权边缘，Erica，我们的流程是采用基准线，然后对下行情景和不确定性应用各种考虑因素。所以它不是一个包含多个概率的公式化多情景模型，无法让我们给出一个加权平均杠杆数字，这就是为什么我们给出定性描述的原因。然后，关于我们如何看待准备金的未来，看，如果我们继续看到近期信贷表现的有利趋势，在其他条件相同的情况下，随着时间的推移，这将降低覆盖率；如果我们看到经济前景出现显著恶化，或者消费者信贷行为与我们今天看到的情况发生变化，这可能会给我们的覆盖率带来上行压力。鉴于我们目前所处的加剧的不确定性，我不想预测一个季度后会是什么情况，直到我们在第二季度末完成整个流程，届时我们将看到准备金最终的水平。

Erika Najarian

埃里卡·纳贾里安

Got it. And just my follow-up question. implicit in your response to John Pancari's question, are you also affirming the purchase accounting assumptions from February of 2024? And just confirming that there any adjustments to be made given the heightened uncertainty to the Discover portfolio in terms of credit going forward, it would be on the day 2 provision, of course, not the purchase credit impaired mark.

明白了。我的后续问题是，在您对 John Pancari 问题的回答中，是否也隐含地确认了 2024 年 2 月的购买法会计假设？并且只是确认，考虑到未来信贷方面对 Discover 投资组合的更高不确定性，任何需要进行的调整都将体现在第二天的拨备中，当然不是购买信贷减值 (PCI) 标记。

Andrew Young

安德鲁·杨

Right. Well, we're going to segment their portfolio for PCD and non-PCD and part of that, obviously, it would run through the balance sheet and part of that would run through the P&L on day 2. With respect to affirming balance sheet marks, I'll explicitly not affirm the balance sheet marks given that rates and credit and the stock price and a number of other variables have moved. And so we need to get to day 1 and do all of our analysis on those marks, and we'll provide the relevant updates at the appropriate time after we get to a close.

对。嗯，我们将把他们的投资组合划分为 PCD（购买信贷恶化）和非 PCD，其中一部分显然会通过资产负债表体现，另一部分会在第二天通过损益表体现。关于确认资产负债表标记，我明确表示不会确认这些标记，因为利率、信贷、股价以及许多其他变量都已经发生了变化。因此，我们需要等到第一天（交易完成日）并对这些标记进行全面分析，我们将在交易完成后在适当的时候提供相关更新。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next question please.

下一个问题，请。

Operator

接线员

Our next question comes from Brian Foran with Truist. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自 Truist 的 Brian Foran。您可以开始了。

Brian Foran

布莱恩·福兰

Hi, I had one on spend and one on the network. On spend, in prior quarters, you've given us the high end versus low end kind of updating commentary. I just wonder if you could give us that and maybe specifically on the tariff reaction, any differences you are observing in high end versus low end? Or is it about the same?

嗨，我有一个关于支出和一个关于网络的问题。关于支出，在之前的季度，您给了我们高端对比低端的那种更新评论。我只是想知道您是否可以给我们提供这个信息，也许特别是关于关税反应，您在高端和低端之间观察到任何差异吗？还是大致相同？

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

So Brian, the relative to the tariffs and any early impact that we have seen. We have not seen that a big difference between high end versus low end there. Again, these are very early observations. Spend has generally has picked up a little bit in the last week or two, whether that is a pull forward or whether that's some other effect remains to be seen, but we haven't seen a striking difference on where on the spectrum that falls.

那么 Brian，关于关税以及我们看到的任何早期影响。我们没有看到高端和低端之间有很大的差异。再次强调，这些是非常早期的观察。支出在过去一两周内普遍有所回升，这是否是提前消费还是其他一些影响还有待观察，但我们没有看到在哪个消费层级上存在显著差异。

Brian Foran

布莱恩·福兰

And then on the network, and I apologize, I feel like I'm going to oversimplify this and ask this in a dumb way, but when I talk to people, I mean, I think everyone sees the value of a globally competitive network. We can just look at the multiples Visa Mastercard at. It also seems like a very long and expensive journey. I'm just trying to unpack what you're signaling. Is it incrementally each year investing in the network? Or is it like, and again, I know I'm simplifying this, I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, but like is there some signaling that like, hey, guys, we might reset the expense outlook to take on Visa Mastercard full stop?

然后关于网络，我很抱歉，我觉得我可能会过度简化这个问题，并以一种愚蠢的方式提问，但是当我和人们交谈时，我的意思是，我认为每个人都看到了一个具有全球竞争力的网络的价值。我们只需看看 Visa 和 Mastercard 的市盈率倍数就知道了。这似乎也是一个非常漫长且昂贵的旅程。我只是想弄清楚您在暗示什么。是每年逐步增加对网络的投资吗？还是说，再次强调，我知道我在简化，我不是想替您说话，但是否有某种信号表明，比如，嘿，各位，我们可能会重新设定费用前景，以便全面挑战 Visa 和 Mastercard？

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Yes. So Well, I'm glad you asked that question. We aren't on a quest to replicate Visa and MasterCard's model. It's an extraordinary model they have and on behalf of all the banks in the United States almost all of them. They are the intermediary between all the banks and the merchants, and of course, they get paid on a few basis points here and there, times the trillions of dollars of transactions. It's an amazing business model.

是的。嗯，我很高兴你问这个问题。我们并非寻求复制 Visa 和 MasterCard 的模式。他们拥有非凡的模式，代表着美国几乎所有的银行。他们是所有银行和商户之间的中介，当然，他们通过这里那里几个基点的费率，乘以数万亿美元的交易额来获得报酬。这是一个了不起的商业模式。

By the way, just with respect to that, it is the case that Discover does have on the debit side, they are a network provider for several thousand banks. So I don't want to diminish that particular business model, it's a great thing. It came from their acquisition in 2005 of the Pulse network. And it's a very nice business model, and we would love to grow that. So I do think that being a network for other financial institutions will be part of the business model over the years. That like most other things, the road to significantly change the game there, probably, again, goes through that same path of building greater global network acceptance and the brand credibility sort of for the network that goes along with that.

顺便说一下，就此而言，Discover 在借记卡方面确实是如此，他们是数千家银行的网络提供商。所以我不想贬低那个特定的商业模式，这是一件很棒的事情。它源于他们在 2005 年收购 Pulse 网络。这是一个非常好的商业模式，我们很乐意发展它。所以我确实认为，在未来的几年里，成为其他金融机构的网络将是商业模式的一部分。就像大多数其他事情一样，要显著改变那里的游戏规则，可能再次需要通过同样的路径，即建立更广泛的全球网络受理度和与之相伴的网络品牌信誉。

But anyway -- but the biggest opportunity for Capital One beyond the sort of the direct opportunity that we identified with the amount of volume that we moved is to be able to put more of our volume on the network. And it is our view that as we look to do more of that, we, -- again those roads lead to because lots of people -- so many of our customers our international travelers. And again, it did discover for a company of their size, I marvel at what they've built globally.

但无论如何——对于 Capital One 来说，除了我们确定的转移交易量所带来的直接机会之外，最大的机会是能够将我们更多的交易量放到这个网络上。我们的观点是，当我们寻求这样做时，我们——再次强调，这些路径之所以可行，是因为很多人——我们如此多的客户是国际旅行者。再次强调，对于 Discover 这样规模的公司，我对他们在全球范围内建立的成就感到惊叹。

Now in the United States, it's virtually -- it's basically accepted everywhere in the United States. Internationally, no one is accepted everywhere, but they've gotten a great head start on that, but we believe that in order to really capitalize on the network and to give the network the scale that in this profoundly scale-driven business, the scale that would really help it and sort of getting the flywheel of scale in this network effect business, all roads lead through building more international acceptance and then really leaning into the global brand associated with that network. But as we look at it, the primary payoff of that would be just putting more volume on the business in a very scale-driven business. And then over time, we could also look at other opportunities such as being a network for other financial institutions.

现在在美国，它几乎——基本上在美国各地都被接受。在国际上，没有哪个网络被所有地方接受，但他们在这方面已经取得了巨大的领先优势，但我们相信，为了真正利用好这个网络，并赋予网络在这个极其依赖规模的业务中所需要的规模，那种真正能帮助它并在这个网络效应业务中启动规模飞轮的规模，所有的道路都通向建立更多的国际受理度，然后真正加大投入与该网络相关的全球品牌。但就我们看来，这样做的主要回报将是在一个非常依赖规模的业务中，仅仅是将更多的交易量放到这个业务上。然后随着时间的推移，我们也可以考虑其他机会，例如成为其他金融机构的网络。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please.

下一个问题，请。

Operator

接线员

And our final question comes from the line of Robert Wildhack with Autonomous Research. You may proceed.

我们的最后一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 的 Robert Wildhack。您可以开始了。

Robert Wildhack

罗伯特·威尔德哈克

Hi guys. Rich, you've hit on the international acceptance them quite a bit this evening and there internationally, it seems like that's more of a chicken and egg problem where you have to kind of build and catalyze acceptance. I'm wondering if you could share your thoughts on the specific investments strategies or levers you might have to solve that chicken and egg problem internationally and ultimately close the acceptance gap. Thanks.

嗨，各位。Rich，您今晚多次提到国际受理度的问题，在国际上，这似乎更像是一个先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题，您需要某种程度上建立并促进受理度。我想知道您是否可以分享一下您对于解决国际上这个鸡和蛋问题并最终弥合受理度差距的具体投资策略或手段的想法。谢谢。

Richard Fairbank

理查德·费尔班克

Yes. So if you look at how any of the big networks have built their business, including how Discover has built international acceptance. It's really cobbling together a variety of solutions internationally really through partnerships. In Discovery's case, certainly, and this would be where the leverage is to partner with networks to partner with -- to go through merchant acquirers who can weigh more than one retail time, more at scale, create acceptance to partner with financial institutions, basically card issuing banks in different countries and finally, to go directly to merchants. They have gotten to their pretty striking levels of acceptance through a combination of those 4 and it's a boots on the ground, roll up your sleeves, do something, but what I'm comfortable is this is something they've already done. And it's just something that we will lean into and probably lean into it more than they were able to because of the opportunity and the price that we see on the other end of this with the combined scale that we have, to your point, it is a chicken and egg problem.

是的。所以如果你看看任何大型网络是如何建立业务的，包括 Discover 是如何建立国际受理度的。这实际上是通过合作关系在国际上拼凑各种解决方案。在 Discover 的案例中，当然，这就是杠杆作用所在——与网络合作，与——通过商户收单机构合作，这些机构可以一次性覆盖多个零售点，更具规模地创造受理度；与金融机构合作，基本上是不同国家的发卡银行；最后，直接与商户合作。他们通过这四种方式的结合达到了相当惊人的受理水平，这是一个需要脚踏实地、撸起袖子干活的事情，但我感到欣慰的是，这是他们已经做过的事情。这只是我们将要投入的事情，而且可能比他们能够投入的更多，因为我们看到了另一端的机会和价值，以及我们合并后的规模。正如你所说，这是一个鸡和蛋的问题。

And when you show up, they want to know how much volume you're bringing and as we get people. And as we sign up customers, they want to know how much acceptance we have. So it's a classic chicken and anything, but it's not starting at 0. It's starting at a pretty striking level of acceptance. They've sloped the work that they work backwards from where Americans travel. And so the playbook is there. We would lean into this playbook and then I think the opportunities also are outside of what we've sort of modeled in terms of the benefits in our deal model.

当你出现时，他们想知道你能带来多少交易量；而当我们吸引人们、签下客户时，他们想知道我们有多少受理度。所以这是一个典型的鸡和蛋问题，但它不是从零开始。它是从一个相当惊人的受理水平开始的。他们根据美国人的旅行地点反向规划了工作。所以策略是现成的。我们会深入研究这个策略，然后我认为机会也存在于我们在交易模型中模拟的利益之外。

Jeff Norris

杰夫·诺里斯

Well, that concludes our Q&A session. Thank you all for joining us on the conference call today, and thank you for your continued interest in Capital One. Have a great evening, everybody.

好的，我们的问答环节到此结束。感谢大家今天参加我们的电话会议，也感谢大家对 Capital One 的持续关注。祝大家晚上愉快。

Operator

接线员

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

谢谢。今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。您现在可以挂断电话了。