2025-05-02 Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Exxon Mobil Corporation. (NYSE:XOM) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call May 2, 2025 9:30 AM ET
Company Participants
Jim Chapman - Treasurer, and Vice President of Investor Relations
Darren Woods - Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer
Kathy Mikells - Senior Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Betty Jiang - Barclays
Devin McDermott - Morgan Stanley
Doug Leggett - Wolfe Research
Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs
Steve Richardson - Evercore ISI
John Royall - JPMorgan
Biraj Borkhataria - RBC
Jean Ann Salisbury - Bank of America
Alastair Syme - Citi
Roger Read - Wells Fargo
Bob Brackett - Bernstein Research
Josh Silverstein - UBS
Ryan Todd - Piper Sandler
Jim Chapman
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to ExxonMobil's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded.
我们早上好，欢迎参加埃克森美孚2025年第一季度财报电话会议。本次会议正在录音。
We appreciate your joining us today. I'm Jim Chapman, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations and I'm joined by Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Kathy Mikells, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
感谢各位今天的参与。我是吉姆·查普曼，公司副总裁、财务主管兼投资者关系负责人。与我一同出席的还有董事长兼首席执行官达伦·伍兹，以及高级副总裁兼首席财务官凯西·迈克尔斯。
This quarter's presentation and prerecorded remarks are available on the Investors section of our website. They're meant to accompany the first quarter earnings news release, which is posted in the same location. We also published a new Company Overview presentation, which is posted alongside our earnings materials. This document provides some new financial and other perspectives on ExxonMobil.
本季度的演示文稿和预先录制的发言内容已发布在公司网站的投资者页面，用以配合发布在同一页面的第一季度财报新闻稿。我们还发布了一份新的公司概览演示材料，与财报资料一起提供，该文件提供了有关埃克森美孚的一些新的财务和其他视角。
During today’s presentation, we’ll make forward-looking comments, including discussions of our long-term plans which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please read our cautionary statement on slide 2. You can find more information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to any forward-looking statements in our SEC filings on our website. Note that we also provided supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides, which are also posted on the website.
在今天的会议中，我们将发表前瞻性评论，包括对长期计划的讨论，这些都存在风险与不确定性。请参阅第2页幻灯片上的风险提示声明。关于任何前瞻性陈述所适用的风险与不确定性，您可以在我们网站上的SEC申报文件中找到更多信息。此外，我们还在财报幻灯片结尾提供了补充信息，同样可在网站上查阅。
And now I'll turn it over to Darren for opening remarks.
现在请达伦发表开场讲话。
Darren Woods
Good morning, and thanks for joining us. I’ll begin with some comments on the current market and policy environment, especially in light of the ongoing uncertainty in tariffs. It is clear that this uncertainty is weighing on economic forecast causing significant volatility in raising the prospects of slower growth. Coupled with the threats of increased OPEC supply, we are seeing significant downward pressure on prices and margins.
大家早上好，感谢大家的参与。我将首先谈谈当前的市场和政策环境，尤其是在关税不确定性持续存在的背景下。这种不确定性显然正在影响经济预测，导致显著的波动性，并提高了经济增长放缓的可能性。再加上欧佩克可能增产的威胁，我们正面临价格和利润率的重大下行压力。
In this environment, it's more important than ever to focus on what we can control and this company's track record of delivery. The work we've done over the past eight years should make one thing clear. We're ready for this. Our strategy has led to an advantaged portfolio with low cost of supply, a strong balance sheet with a 7% net debt to capital ratio that leads large cap industrials and all IOCs in a lean cost base. We've taken \$12.7 billion of structural cost out of the business since 2019. Think about that.
在这样的环境下，专注于我们能够控制的因素比以往任何时候都更加重要，而本公司的执行力也已得到验证。我们在过去八年中所做的工作已经充分说明：我们已做好准备。我们的战略造就了一个具备优势的资产组合，具备低供应成本、强劲的资产负债表——净债务与资本比率仅为7%，在大型工业企业和所有国际石油公司中处于领先地位，而且我们拥有精简的成本结构。自2019年以来，我们已从业务中削减了127亿美元的结构性成本。请仔细想想这个数字。
Almost \$2.5 billion a year for the past five years. No other IOC even comes close. Our organization has planned for this. We pressure test our plans and the financial outcomes with scenarios that are more severe than our COVID experience. For us, success isn't defined in the good times, but in the hard times. That's also when our competitive advantages in people scale, technology integration and execution excellence really stand out. Today we're prepared and better positioned than others to respond to market challenges and in fact take advantage of the opportunities present.
过去五年，平均每年削减约25亿美元。没有其他国际石油公司能接近这一成果。我们的组织早已为此做好准备。我们会用比新冠疫情更严峻的情境对我们的计划和财务结果进行压力测试。对我们而言，成功不是在顺境中定义的，而是在逆境中体现的。正是在这样的时刻，我们在人才规模、技术整合和卓越执行方面的竞争优势才能真正凸显。如今，我们已做好准备，比其他企业更有能力应对市场挑战，甚至能利用眼前的机遇。
Looking past this, the longer term fundamentals underpinning our businesses are robust. The world will continue to need reliable and affordable energy and our portfolio of products that support modern living. We'll continue to invest in advantage projects for both our existing and new businesses to profitably meet these needs. When we get to 2030, I'm confident we will have delivered on our plan \$20 billion more in earnings and \$30 billion more in cash, assuming constant prices and margins and significantly greater value for shareholders.
展望未来，我们业务背后的长期基本面依然稳固。全球仍将持续需要可靠且可负担的能源，我们的产品组合正是为了支持现代生活而设。我们将继续投资于现有和新业务中的优势项目，以盈利的方式满足这些需求。到2030年，我有信心我们将在既定价格和利润率假设下，实现比当前规划多200亿美元的收益和多300亿美元的现金流，为股东创造更大的价值。
5年翻一番的目标没变。
Turning to our current performance, we delivered another strong quarter thanks to the hard work of our people executing our strategy. Our earnings were \$7.7 billion up 4% sequentially excluding identified items. We generated \$13 billion of cash flow from operations, which led all IOCs. As I noted, to improve efficiency, we continue to take expense out of the business with an industry-leading program of structural cost savings. To further high grade our portfolio, we sold \$1.8 billion of assets in the quarter, driven by divestments in the upstream. We've also completed the \$5 billion of incremental divestments we laid out at the Corporate Plan update in December, and we'll continue to actively manage our portfolio and evaluate opportunities to further high grade where it makes sense.
回到当前业绩，感谢我们员工践行战略所付出的努力，我们再次交出强劲的一季报。本季度净利润为77亿美元，环比增长4%（不计特殊项目）。经营活动现金流为130亿美元，在所有国际石油公司中居首。如我前面提到的，为提升效率，我们正通过业内领先的结构性成本削减计划持续降低开支。为了进一步优化资产组合，本季度我们出售了18亿美元的资产，主要来自上游业务的剥离。同时，我们也完成了去年12月公司战略更新中提到的50亿美元额外资产出售目标。未来我们将继续积极管理投资组合，并在合适的时机寻求进一步的优化机会。
Since 2019, we've sold \$24 billion of non-core assets, strategically reshaping our portfolio and growing earnings power. Taken together, the strategic choices and investments we've made since 2019 have strengthened our quarterly earnings power by \$4 billion at current prices and margins. Our ongoing transformation to become a more efficient company with a lower cost of supply is driving lower break evens with firm plans to improve them to \$35 per barrel by 2027 and \$30 per barrel by 2030.
自2019年以来，我们已出售了240亿美元的非核心资产，从战略上重塑了我们的投资组合，并增强了盈利能力。总体而言，自2019年以来我们所做的战略决策和投资，使我们在当前价格和利润率下的季度盈利能力增强了40亿美元。我们正在持续转型，致力于成为一家更高效、供应成本更低的公司，这一进程正在推动盈亏平衡点降低，并已制定明确目标：到2027年将盈亏平衡降至每桶35美元，到2030年进一步降至30美元。
Importantly, we're lowering break evens the right way by growing earnings power and cash flow, not slashing capital investments which are the foundation for value growth in our business. Prudently investing in advantaged opportunities across price cycles was key to doubling earnings since 2019 and is critically important to growing cash flow \$30 billion by 2030. Our ability to successfully deliver large-scale attractive investments at or below cost and often ahead of schedule positions us well in difficult market conditions. We are seeing that in China where we recently commenced operations at our world scale chemical plant. This is one of the largest, most complex projects we've ever done and we delivered it ahead of schedule and under budget. We will competitively supply high value chemical products for the China market, protected from tariffs with attractive long-term growth.
关键在于我们是以正确方式来降低盈亏平衡点——通过提升盈利能力和现金流，而不是削减资本投资，后者是我们业务价值增长的基石。我们在不同价格周期中审慎投资于具备优势的机会，是自2019年以来盈利翻倍的关键所在，也是到2030年实现300亿美元现金流增长的核心。我们具备在预算之内甚至提前完成大规模优质投资项目的能力，使我们在艰难市场环境下依然具备优势。这在中国体现得尤为明显——我们在中国的世界级化工厂已正式投产，这是我们迄今为止最庞大、最复杂的项目之一，但我们提前竣工、成本低于预算。该工厂将为中国市场提供具有竞争力的高价值化工产品，受关税保护，并拥有良好的长期增长前景。
We're starting up our second advanced recycling unit at Baytown, using proprietary technology to recycle plastic waste at a much lower cost than alternative processes. Like our first advanced recycling unit, the new one will have capacity to process £80 million a year for a growing market of certified circular polymers. We are bringing on two new FPSOs at our deep-water projects offshore Guyana and Brazil; we expect to start up both later this year.
我们正在贝敦投产第二套先进回收装置，采用自有技术以远低于传统方法的成本回收塑料废料。和第一套装置一样，这套新设备每年可处理8000万磅废塑料，面向日益增长的认证循环聚合物市场。同时，我们还将在圭亚那和巴西近海的深水项目中投产两艘新的FPSO浮式生产储油船，预计将在今年晚些时候开始运营。
And in our new technology enabled businesses, market interest continues to grow. With our Proxxima business, we've showcased a new high strength EV battery case at the world's leading composite trade show in March. Our solution improves the efficiency of the vehicle manufacturing process, reduces the overall weight and can't be replicated by other composites. We also announced a collaboration with Nordics Group, a leading wind turbine manufacturer, to use Proxxima resin as a more durable solution for the company's blades. We'll hit multiple Proxxima milestones this year, including more than doubling our production capacity.
在我们的新技术赋能型业务中，市场兴趣持续增长。在Proxxima业务方面，我们于3月在全球领先的复合材料展会上展示了新型高强度电动车电池外壳。这一解决方案提升了整车制造效率，减轻了整体重量，而且其他复合材料难以复制。我们还宣布与领先风力涡轮制造商Nordics Group合作，使用Proxxima树脂为其叶片提供更耐用的解决方案。今年我们将在Proxxima业务上实现多个重要里程碑，包括产能提升一倍以上。
Altogether the 10 advantage projects we're starting up this year are expected to generate more than \$3 billion of earnings in 2026 and at constant prices and margins, our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. Invest in profitable growth, maintain financial strength and share our success with shareholders to generate strong cash flows years into the future, we must invest today. It's hard to consistently grow free cash flow in a capital intensive business over the long-term, but we are doing it.
我们今年投产的10个优势项目合计预计将在2026年带来超过30亿美元的收益。在当前价格和利润率不变的假设下，我们的资本配置优先级保持不变：投资于可盈利增长、保持财务稳健、并与股东分享我们的成功。为了在未来多年持续产生强劲现金流，我们必须在当下进行投资。要在一个资本密集型行业中实现自由现金流的长期持续增长并不容易，但我们正在做到这一点。
Reducing attractive investments to increase near term free cash flow weakens the business over the long-term. Compromising the future is a high price to pay for pleasing a few short term investors. Our cash flow grows consistently throughout our planned horizon of 2030. And while our total cash CapEx grows to between \$28 billion and \$33 billion per year through 2030, our reinvestment rate declines from 50% to 40% of cash flow over the planned period. We're putting capital to its highest and best use to further strengthen the earnings power of the company.
为了提升短期自由现金流而削减具吸引力的投资，将在长期削弱企业实力。为了取悦少数短期投资者而牺牲未来，其代价是巨大的。在我们至2030年的规划期内，现金流将持续增长。尽管总现金资本支出将增长至每年280亿至330亿美元，但同期的再投资率将从现金流的50%降至40%。我们正在将资本投入到最高效、最有价值的领域，从而进一步增强公司的盈利能力。
In the upstream, we're focused on growing volumes of our most profitable barrels. We're on track for more than 60% of our production to come from advantaged assets by 2030, with an increase in per barrel profit from \$10 a barrel last year to \$13 a barrel in 2030.
在上游业务方面，我们专注于提高最具盈利能力油桶的产量。到2030年，我们计划实现超过60%的产量来自于具优势资产，每桶利润将从去年的10美元提升至2030年的13美元。
In product solutions, advantage projects are accelerating our shift to a more profitable mix of products. We're on track for 80% growth of high value products by 2030, which will bring them to more than 40% of total product solutions earnings. In low carbon solutions, we expect to generate \$1 billion of earnings by 2030 in businesses that are insulated from commodity price cycles. We know that shorter-term investors will want lower CapEx and higher cash distributions. I suspect with today's level of market uncertainty, the call for this will be even stronger. That's shortsighted. We play the long game. We are rewarding shareholders today with investments made in the past when we face similar circumstances and a lot of criticism for staying the course. The passage of time demonstrated the value in this approach. We know that the advantaged investments we're making today are critical in growing shareholder returns and distributions in the future.
在产品解决方案方面，优势项目正加快我们向更高利润产品结构的转型。到2030年，高价值产品预计将增长80%，其在产品解决方案总收益中的占比将超过40%。在低碳解决方案业务方面，我们预计到2030年可实现10亿美元收益，该业务不受大宗商品价格周期影响。我们知道，短期投资者希望降低资本支出并提高现金分红；我预期，在当前市场不确定性水平下，这种呼声会更强。但这是一种短视行为。我们是长期主义者。今天我们对股东的回报，源自过去在类似环境下坚持投资的成果，尽管当时也面临不少批评。时间已经证明了这种战略的价值。我们清楚，今天所进行的优势投资对未来提升股东回报和分红至关重要。
Having said this, we are focused on value. If changes in market conditions present opportunities to improve the NPV of our investments by pivoting or inventorying opportunities, we'll take them. The flexibility of our investment portfolio gives us this option. Today, more than a third of our upstream production comes from short cycle assets where activity and spend can be quickly adjusted in response to market conditions.
话虽如此，我们的重点仍然是价值。如果市场环境的变化为我们带来提升投资净现值（NPV）的机会，无论是通过战略调整还是暂时搁置项目，我们都会果断行动。我们投资组合的灵活性让我们具备这种选择权。目前，我们超过三分之一的上游产量来自短周期资产，这些资产的运营活动和支出可迅速根据市场情况进行调整。
As we discussed in detail at the corporate plan update and our newer businesses and for projects that have not yet reached FID. If the necessary policy support or market developments are not sustained or do not materialize, we'll defer investments. Our focus on the fundamentals, our strategy and the resulting investments and the strength of our advantages, our growing earnings and generating cash allowing us to create leading value for shareholders.
正如我们在公司战略更新中所详细说明的那样，对于新兴业务以及尚未达到最终投资决策（FID）阶段的项目，如果必要的政策支持或市场发展未能持续或未能实现，我们将推迟投资。我们专注于基本面、战略方向及由此带来的投资机会，并凭借我们持续增长的盈利能力与现金创造能力，以及多项核心优势，为股东创造领先价值。
In the quarter, we distributed \$9.1 billion of cash, more than any other IOC. This included \$4.8 billion of share buybacks. We've now repurchased roughly a third of the shares we issued to complete our transformational Pioneer acquisition, which closed a year ago tomorrow. As of the quarter end, we delivered a three-year total shareholder return of 60% for a compound annual growth rate of 17%, that's well above any other IOC. It's also well above the broader set of large cap industrial companies with average TSR compound annual growth rate of 14%. We also outpaced the large cap industrials as a cash engine.
本季度，我们向股东派发了91亿美元的现金，超过所有其他国际石油公司（IOC）。其中包括48亿美元的股票回购。目前我们已回购了大约三分之一为完成具有转型意义的先锋公司（Pioneer）收购而发行的股份，该笔交易将于明天迎来完成一周年。截止本季度末，我们三年的股东总回报达到60%，年复合增长率为17%，远超任何其他IOC，也高于大型工业企业平均14%的年复合股东回报率。在现金流方面，我们同样跑赢了这些大型工业企业。
15倍的PE，3.83%的股息，EPS是负增长，不够便宜，并且完全取决于油价。
Over the past three years, our total free cash flow equaled over 25% of our current market cap. Theirs averaged less than 10%. The strong value we've created for shareholders has not gone unnoticed. We're receiving positive feedback in our engagements with investors, which we've ramped up significantly over the past five years.
在过去三年中，我们的自由现金流总额已超过当前市值的25%，而其他大型工业企业的平均水平不到10%。我们为股东创造的强劲价值也获得了市场的积极认可。在过去五年里，我们大幅加强了与投资者的交流，并收获了许多正面的反馈。
Later this month is our annual meeting. Since our last one a year ago, leaders from the company, including members of our board of directors, have met with roughly 75% of our institutional investors. This year, for the first time since 1958, we have zero shareholder proposals in our proxy. We believe this is a result of two things, our financial and operating results, which exceed all integrated oil companies on almost any measure, and our willingness to challenge actions that undermine the value of our company and abuse legitimate processes.
本月晚些时候我们将召开年度股东大会。自去年上次股东大会以来，公司高层和董事会成员已与大约75%的机构投资者进行了会面。今年，自1958年以来首次，我们的股东委托书中没有收到任何股东提案。我们认为这归因于两方面：一是我们在几乎所有衡量维度上均优于其他综合性石油公司所取得的财务和运营成果；二是我们敢于挑战那些破坏公司价值、滥用正常程序的行为。
Last year, we took legal action against activists seeking to shrink our business by repeatedly submitting shareholder proposals that, in their own words, were Trojan horses for their activist agenda. This is in direct contrast to our efforts to expand engagements with investors who want to hear more about how we're growing the value of our company. Our lawsuit against the European Union, when it implemented an unjustified profits tax in the California Attorney General, when he falsely accused us of misrepresenting the benefits of advanced plastic recycling, are two other examples of fighting to retain the value we're generating for our shareholders. That's our focus and our commitment to grow and protect shareholder value.
去年，我们对一些激进主义者提起诉讼，这些人试图通过不断提交所谓的股东提案来削弱我们的业务，这些提案正如他们自己所说，是为推动其激进议程而设的“特洛伊木马”。这与我们持续加强与真正关心公司价值增长的投资者的互动形成鲜明对比。我们还曾对欧盟征收无正当理由的暴利税提起诉讼，也对加州总检察长提起诉讼，原因是他错误指控我们误导了公众关于先进塑料回收的效益。这些都是我们为捍卫公司为股东创造的价值而采取行动的实例。这就是我们的关注所在，也是我们致力于提升和保护股东价值的承诺。
With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.
接下来，我们很乐意回答大家的问题。
Jim Chapman
Thank you, Darren. Before we move to Q\&A, I want to highlight that we published our 2025 Advancing Climate Solutions report this week detailing all of our progress on solving the and equation, meeting demand and reducing emissions, as well as our latest sustainability report. And just as a reminder, we mentioned in our prepared remarks that we published a new company overview presentation. All these documents are linked on this page and can be found on the investor relations portion of our website. We encourage you to take a look. With that, let's move to Q\&A. Operator, we'll ask you to please open the line for our first question.
谢谢你，达伦。在我们进入问答环节之前，我想强调，我们本周发布了《2025年气候解决方案进展报告》，详尽介绍了我们在解决能源需求与减排“两难问题”方面的最新成果，以及最新的可持续发展报告。提醒一下，我们在准备讲话中也提到，我们还发布了一份新的公司概览演示文稿。所有这些文件均已链接在本页上，并可在我们公司网站的投资者关系板块找到。我们鼓励大家阅读。下面进入问答环节。请运营商开放第一位提问者的电话线路。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
Thank you. \[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Betty Jiang of Barclays.
谢谢。\[操作员提示] 第一位提问者是来自巴克莱的贝蒂·姜。
Betty Jiang
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have to say we're hearing this loud and clear about the resilience of the portfolio. We're fully cognizant that or Exxon any response is a function of choice and you are playing the long game. But earlier you also talked about the flexibility in the portfolio and that you will reconsider plans if you can improve NPV of investment.
早上好，感谢你们回答我的提问。我们已经非常清楚地感受到你们投资组合的韧性。我们充分理解，对于埃克森美孚而言，如何应对市场是出于战略选择的结果，你们在打的是一场长期战。但你们也提到，如果能提升投资的净现值（NPV），你们会利用投资组合的灵活性重新考虑计划。
So I just want to better understand under what market condition, what weren't exercising that flexibility and then how would you balance that decision versus the operational momentum you're seeing across the businesses.
我想更深入了解的是，在什么样的市场条件下你们不会动用这种灵活性？此外，面对各项业务当前展现出的强劲运营动能，你们又是如何在调整计划与维持动能之间做出权衡的？
Darren Woods
Yes. Good morning, Betty, and thank you for the question. I think you've touched on really critical elements of where we stand and how we're thinking about the business. The first point is we don't have to do anything in this environment. It's all an option of choice and then making decisions with the flexibility we have to maximize NPV is a function of where does the market go today, how does that compare with where we think the market will be in the future and fundamentally what's the long-term marginal cost of supply and where do current prices sit with respect to that. We've also got to factor in your point, which is the momentum that we've got, making sure we continue to drive a lot of the technology advances. We don't want to compromise the good progress that we're making there and frankly a very strong portfolio of opportunities that we're prosecuting.
早上好，贝蒂，谢谢你的问题。我认为你提到了我们当前立场和业务思维方式中的关键点。首先要明确，在当前环境下我们并不被迫要采取任何行动，一切都是战略上的选择。我们之所以评估是否调整计划，是为了最大化NPV，这主要取决于几个变量：一是市场当前的走向；二是我们对未来市场走势的判断；三是长期边际供应成本的水平以及当前价格与之的关系。此外，正如你提到的，我们还必须考虑当前所拥有的动能，我们必须确保技术进步不断推进。我们不想损害目前取得的良好进展，毕竟我们当前手中拥有的是一个极具吸引力的强大项目组合。
We've also got to factor in where costs go, where the cost of supply is, what contractors are doing. So there's a number of variables that go into this. Our unconventional business in particular is paying attention to all those things. We've got a very rigorous process for evaluating the tradeoffs and coming up with what we think is an optimum investment rate and approach going forward, which fundamentally is going to be driven by where the, how low the market goes. And I think there are opportunities in a low price environment that we want to make sure we're prepared to take advantage of.
我们还需要考虑成本的走向、供应成本的结构、以及承包商方面的动向。因此，这是一个涉及多变量的决策过程。特别是在我们的非常规业务方面，我们非常关注上述所有因素。我们有一套非常严谨的评估流程，来权衡各种取舍，最终确定我们认为最优的投资节奏和策略。本质上，这一切都取决于市场的下行幅度。而我认为，在低价格环境中往往也蕴含着机会，我们必须做好准备，抓住这些机会。
So it's, it's not a black and white answer, unfortunately for you, but I would just tell you, you should have a lot of confidence that we understand the variables are paying very close attention to them and assessing what's the best way to maximize the value of the company.
因此，可能无法给你一个非黑即白的明确答案，但我要告诉你的是，我们非常清楚影响决策的各项变量，并在密切关注它们，以评估如何才能最大程度地提升公司价值。
Betty Jiang
That makes sense. Full confidence ahead. Thank you.
这很有道理，我完全有信心。谢谢你。
Darren Woods
Thank you, Betty.
谢谢你，贝蒂。
Operator
The next question is from Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.
下一位提问者是摩根士丹利的德文·麦克德莫特。
Devin McDermott
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.
早上好，谢谢你们回答我的问题。
Darren Woods
Morning.
早上好。
Devin McDermott
So, Darren, I wanted to spend a little bit of time on chemicals. So the China Chemicals project, as you highlighted, gives you a large domestic supply source at a time when we're seeing rising trade barriers. We're watching one of the key strategic benefits of this project, I think, play out in real time. So I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about how recent market developments like slowing global growth, U.S. China tariffs are impacting performance at that facility and also your chemicals business more broadly.
达伦，我想花点时间聊一下化工业务。正如你刚才强调的，中国的化工项目在当前全球贸易壁垒上升的背景下，为你们提供了一个巨大的本地供应来源。我们现在看到该项目的一个关键战略价值正在实时发挥作用。我想请你进一步谈谈，像全球增长放缓、美中关税等近期市场变化对该设施的影响，以及它对你们整个化工业务的更广泛影响。
Darren Woods
Sure. So I think maybe to start with the big picture and then zoom into the specifics of our China complex. I think, we've been, the industry has been in essentially a long position from a supply standpoint for quite some time and the margins that we're seeing, industry margins that we're seeing across the world are well below what our past experience in history has been and that's really a function of really good demand, strong demand, but even more supply and stronger growth in supply which is creating this market glut.
当然。我想我们可以先从大局说起，再聚焦到中国化工园区的具体情况。整体来看，整个行业从供给角度讲，已经处于供应过剩的局面有一段时间了。我们目前在全球看到的行业利润率远低于历史平均水平，这其实是由于一个现象——需求确实不错，也很强劲，但供应更强，供应增长得更快，从而造成了市场过剩。
And so that's been the challenge I think we've been facing in many in the industry. All, everyone in the industry has been facing for quite some time. We, with the work that we've been doing and the focus on one advantage projects cutting the cost out of our business and growing high value products are continuing to deliver very sound results in this very challenging market. And so our expectation that's going to be with us for quite some time, the world will continue to grow, will eventually with time grow out of the excess supply condition. I'm sure there'll be some plants that, that don't, some facilities that don't survive the market and drop out and those balances will shift as we go forward. We're very focused on what we can control, which is making products that have a high value in use and therefore justify a premium in the marketplace, running very reliably, running at a low cost and being competitive in what's the challenging market.
这也是我们和行业其他参与者一直以来面临的挑战。在这种艰难的市场环境下，我们始终专注于优势项目，降低成本，并提升高价值产品产出，因此依然能够取得稳健的业绩表现。我们预计这种市场状态还将持续一段时间，全球仍会继续增长，随着时间推移市场最终会摆脱供过于求的状况。当然，有些工厂或设施可能无法撑过这段时期，会被淘汰，行业供需平衡也会逐渐重塑。我们始终聚焦于我们可以控制的方面：生产具有较高使用价值、因而能够获得市场溢价的产品；确保高可靠性运转、低成本运营，并在这个具有挑战性的市场中保持竞争力。
As we've said and Betty just alluded to, we've been building our business for the and so we feel very comfortable with where we're at. On China, I think you touched on it. We had a very long-term view. It's an important market. We recognize we're going to go through geopolitical cycles and different external perturbations and being having a strong presence in an important market underpinned a lot of the thinking behind that investment. It is a very large investment, a complex one. I'm very pleased to say that we built, built that facility well below the incremental cost of supply coming on that you'd see anywhere else in the world. We even beat what I would say are the Chinese markers for low cost capital investment. We did it at a very fast, on a very fast schedule and that team has started that facility up very, very smoothly and got onto on spec production fast, faster than any other startup we've had.
正如我们之前所说的，贝蒂也提到过，我们是在着眼长期进行业务建设，所以我们对目前的处境感到非常安心。关于中国，你也提到了关键点。我们当初是以非常长远的眼光看待这一市场的。中国是一个非常重要的市场，我们很清楚，地缘政治将经历周期波动，也会有各种外部扰动，而在关键市场中建立强大布局，正是我们进行这项投资背后的重要考量。这是一个非常大型且复杂的项目，我非常高兴地说，我们以远低于全球任何其他新增供应成本的水平建成了这座工厂，甚至低于我所说的中国本地的低成本投资基准。我们以非常快的节奏推进建设，该团队实现了非常平稳的启动，并迅速实现了合格产品的产出，比我们以往任何一次投产速度都更快。
So it's just been, I think a testament to the capability of our people. Our entire organization have come together, brought the whole weight of ExxonMobil to making that project successful and getting up and running. It's an advantage project, so we expect to be well positioned within this difficult market. We're going to ramp that facility up through the year and so for the most of this year it'll be in startup and going through grade wheels and making sure that we're really breaking that facility in, then our expectation is 2026 we'll be up and running and blowing and going with the facility. So feel good about where we're at and the potential that we've got there.
我认为这充分体现了我们团队的执行能力。整个组织凝聚在一起，动用了埃克森美孚的全部资源，确保该项目成功落地并顺利投产。这是一个具备优势的项目，因此即使在当前困难的市场中我们也能处于有利地位。今年我们将逐步提升该设施的产能，大部分时间将处于启动调试阶段，进行产品分级、产线磨合，确保设施完全运行稳定。我们预计到2026年，该工厂将实现全面运营、产能全开。我们对目前的状态和该项目未来的潜力都感到非常乐观。
Devin McDermott
Great. Great to see the strong results. Thanks, Darren.
太好了，很高兴看到你们取得强劲成绩。谢谢你，达伦。
Darren Woods
Thank you, Devin.
谢谢你，德文。
Operator
The next question is from Doug Leggett of Wolfe Research.
下一位提问者是来自沃尔夫研究公司的道格·莱格特。
Doug Leggett
Thank you. Good morning. Morning, Darren. It's interesting to watch everyone talk about share buybacks and you guys, in terms of what the flexibility might be and so on. You guys have reiterated your $20 billion pace one day before the anniversary of when you closed Pioneers.
感谢你们。早上好，达伦。现在市场上很多人都在讨论股票回购，而你们方面也在谈论灵活性等等。你们在先锋收购案完成一周年的前一天重申了200亿美元的回购节奏，这很有意思。
My question is this. There's a lot of benefits to ExxonMobil for buying in the stock beyond just the cash return aspect, specifically reducing the dividend burden on the equity you issued on Pioneers. My question is simply, given the volatility in the market, would you continue this pace regardless of the commodity within reason. And lean in your balance sheet to ensure that those Pioneer shares are essentially bought back in?
我想问的是，埃克森美孚回购股票的好处远不止是现金回报，还包括降低你们为收购先锋所发行股票带来的股息负担。请问在市场波动的情况下，你们是否仍会在合理的商品价格范围内坚持这个回购节奏？并适度动用资产负债表来确保先锋收购所发行的股份能够被回购？
Darren Woods
Yes. Good morning, Doug. I think, you've touched on certainly one of the objectives that we had when we acquired Pioneer. We recognized that the valuation, the differential valuation in our stocks presented an opportunity to do a stock transaction, but at the same time recognized that issuing more stock put an additional burden on us, an additional obligation. And we were very focused on making sure that we managed that obligation and brought that obligation back down again. And that's part of the thing that's underpinned the increase in the buybacks and the pace that we're keeping. And so that's very much in mind. We're very focused on continuing to do that and feel like this is a good time to continue doing it.
是的，道格，早上好。你提到了我们在收购先锋公司时确实考虑到的一个目标。我们当时意识到，两家公司之间的估值差异为我们提供了一个通过换股方式完成交易的机会，但同时也意识到发行更多股份会给我们带来额外的股息负担和义务。因此，我们非常重视如何管理这项义务，并通过回购来逐步降低它。这也是我们增加回购额度并保持当前节奏背后的一个关键动因。我们对此始终高度关注，并认为目前继续回购正当其时。
Frankly, our stock price is heavily correlated with crude and crude price, I don't believe that truly reflects the value of the company. And so as it moves down with crude prices, in my mind, that's a great buying opportunity, opportunity for the stock. And so we're committed to continuing to do that. And I think the market conditions we're in today are reasonable. We'll obviously keep an eye on that going forward. Our priority continues to remain making sure that we can invest in the advantaged projects that, frankly, are going to lay the foundation for all the growth that we see coming through 2030 and beyond. Maintaining a strong balance sheet to give us the foundation we need to take advantage of any opportunities that might come in a challenged market is really important, but then obviously, addressing the obligation of dividend and sharing our success with our shareholders is pretty critical. Anything you want to add to that, Kathy?
坦率说，我们的股价与原油价格高度相关，但我认为这并不能真正反映公司的内在价值。所以当油价下跌、股价随之走低时，在我看来，这反而是非常好的买入机会。因此我们将继续坚持回购。就当前市场状况来看，我认为还是合理的，我们当然也会持续密切关注。我们的首要任务仍然是确保对优势项目的持续投资——说实话，这些项目正是我们实现2030年及以后增长目标的基础。同时，维持强劲的资产负债表至关重要，它能为我们在困难市场中把握机遇提供基础。当然，履行分红义务并与股东分享我们的成果也是非常关键的。凯西，你有补充吗？
Kathy Mikells
Yes, I think the only thing I would add is we tried to make a point in our December corporate plan disclosure to show some sensitivities, including a sensitivity activity at $55 oil, where we showed over the next six year kind of period, 2025 through 2030, we'd still throw off surplus cash flow of $110 billion that included a little bit of excess cash, but we ran those numbers and the sensitivity to just demonstrate how resilient we are even in a lower commodity price environment. So we really focused on making sure we built up a strong balance sheet to hold us in good stead in times like this.
是的，我补充一点，我们在去年12月的公司战略发布中，特别展示了一些敏感性分析，包括在55美元油价情境下的表现。我们展示了，在2025到2030年这六年期间，我们仍可产生约1100亿美元的剩余自由现金流，其中包含一部分超额现金。我们进行这些分析，正是为了向市场展示，即使在较低商品价格环境中，我们依然具备强劲的韧性。因此，我们的重点就是建立起一个强大的资产负债表，以便在类似当前这样的时期保持稳健。
Doug Leggett
Thank you. I wonder if I could squeeze a quick follow up. Darren, just very quickly on the 10 projects you have this year. One specifically, what is the current status or expected timing of the startup of Golden Pass? And I'll leave it there, thank you.
谢谢。我能不能再问一个简短的后续问题？达伦，就今年的10个项目而言，有一个我特别关注：Golden Pass项目目前的状态如何？预计何时启动？我就问这么多，谢谢。
Darren Woods
Yes, there are that project along with the others that I think I gave some pretty specific perspective on the last call continues to be progressing at the pace that we had anticipated. Look to have a first LNJ by the end of this year, potentially slipping into early next year but right now we think we're going to deliver at the back end of this year.
是的，这个项目和我在上一次电话会议中提到的其他项目一样，进展都符合我们的预期。我们预计Golden Pass将在今年年底实现首批液化天然气（LNJ）出货，当然也有可能略微推迟到明年初，但目前我们判断依然有望在今年年末交付。
Doug Leggett
Great. Thank you so much.
太好了，非常感谢。
Darren Woods
You bet. Thank you.
不客气，谢谢你。
Operator
The next question is from Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs.
下一位提问者是来自高盛的尼尔·梅塔。
Neil Mehta
Yes, good morning, Darren and team. Darren, you mentioned in your comments you want to make sure that you take advantage of opportunities that a low cost environment can present. And certainly you talked about how you're doing that from a cost perspective. How does M&A potentially fit into that framework? And just give us your latest thoughts on whether there are any gaps in the portfolio or how you're thinking about continuing to consolidate given the strength of the balance sheet.
是的，达伦和团队，早上好。达伦，你在发言中提到，你们希望抓住低成本环境中出现的机会，也谈到你们在成本控制方面的应对举措。那请问并购在这个框架中可能会扮演什么角色？你们目前怎么看投资组合中是否存在空白，或者如何借助强健的资产负债表进一步进行整合？
Darren Woods
Sure. Thank you and good morning, Neil. I would just say maybe stepping back fundamentally how we think about acquisitions is the equation that we've talked about in the past of one plus one has to equal three. And that three comes from taking all the advantages that we've been very focused on strengthening over the last eight years and I think are certainly demonstrating through the Pioneer acquisition the real value of those advantages along with the other projects that we're delivering, that we take those advantages and look for opportunities where we can apply those to other companies, other assets, so that we can grow the value of that beyond what either of us could do independent of one another.
当然可以。谢谢你，尼尔，早上好。我们看待并购的基本思维一直是“1+1必须大于3”。这个“3”来自于我们过去八年来持续强化的各项优势，通过收购先锋公司以及其他在建项目，我们已经证明这些优势确实能够释放巨大的价值。我们寻求的是可以将这些优势应用到其他公司或资产上的机会，从而创造出单独一方所无法实现的更大价值。
巴菲特买了OXY和CVX，就是没有买入XOM。
And so that fundamental approach to thinking about acquisitions and leveraging our advantages and core capabilities keeps us on the lookout constantly for where we can find those opportunities. When we get into a low price environment where potentially some companies don't have the same foundations that we do, the same strengths, the same capability to write out some of the low points of the cycle that could present opportunities, we want to be responsive to those opportunities.
所以，这种以我们核心优势和能力为基础的并购思维，促使我们始终保持对潜在机会的关注。在低价格环境中，一些公司可能没有我们这样的基础和韧性，也无法像我们一样应对周期底部，这种时候市场就可能会出现更多并购机会，我们希望能及时响应。
So I wouldn't tell you that the emphasis or the focus changes in a low price environment, but we're cognizant that there may be more opportunities that materialize. We don't, we're not counting on them, we certainly don't need them and the base portfolio that we've got and the growth profile that we've laid out, but we want to make sure that we're taking advantage of any of the opportunities that we see out there.
因此，我不会说我们在低价环境下的重点会发生改变，但我们确实意识到那种环境中可能会涌现出更多机会。我们不会依赖这些机会，也完全不需要它们——我们现有的资产组合和明确的增长路径已经足够稳健，但我们希望确保，一旦市场出现好的并购机会，我们能够敏捷把握。
Neil Mehta
Very clear. Thanks, Darren.
非常清楚了，谢谢你，达伦。
Darren Woods
Thank you, Neil.
谢谢你，尼尔。
Operator
The next question is from Steven Richardson of Evercore ISI.
下一位提问者是来自Evercore ISI的史蒂文·理查森。
Steve Richardson
Hey, good morning, Darren. I was wondering, you've been really consistent on policy frameworks and incentives and what you all need to see to make some investments, certainly in some of the low carbon areas. I was wondering if you could give us an update on your current thoughts on Baytown and are you likely to move ahead based on what you see today and if not, what else needs to happen for you to get to FID.
早上好，达伦。你们在政策框架和激励措施方面一直非常一致，特别是在低碳投资领域，你们也反复讲过需要看到哪些条件才能启动相关投资。我想请问一下，关于贝敦（Baytown）项目，你们目前怎么看？就现在的情况来看，你们是否可能推进项目？如果还不行，那还需要哪些条件才能达到最终投资决策（FID）？
Darren Woods
Sure. Thank you, Steve, and good morning. So you're right. We've been—we entered into that business with the recognition that frankly, the world needs to find ways to reduce emissions. We think that objective is an important one and a long-term one that society needs to find a constructive, thoughtful, rational path in achieving. Our view was that we as a company have capabilities that we can bring to that challenge and meet that demand. But markets need to form, policy needs to be in place to support that in the early stages of the development of this new industry, frankly.
当然可以。谢谢你，史蒂文，早上好。你说得对，我们之所以进入这个业务，是因为我们清楚地意识到，世界必须找到减排的路径。我们认为这是一个非常重要的、具有长期意义的目标，整个社会需要一个建设性、理性且可持续的方式来实现它。我们的观点是，作为一家公司，我们具备应对这一挑战、满足这一需求的能力。但说到底，市场必须成形，政策也必须到位，尤其是在这个新兴产业发展的早期阶段，确实需要政策支持。
We're pushing very hard though, to make sure that society finds a way, governments find a way to introduce market mechanisms to engage the forces of market, to engage competition, drive technology innovations. And so while we're looking to invest and take advantage of some of the government support and policy that's out there, we're also working very hard to try to drive more robust holistic policy, establish a true framework for carbon accounting so that we can begin to really understand where the sources of emissions are and can then start to calculate true carbon intensities and the cost of carbon reduction.
我们也在努力推动社会和各国政府找到一种方式，引入市场机制，调动市场力量，促进竞争和技术创新。所以虽然我们在寻找投资机会，并希望利用现有的政策支持，我们同时也非常努力地推动更完善、更全面的政策体系，特别是建立一个真正有效的碳核算框架，让大家可以真正理解排放源头在哪里，并能够准确计算碳强度和减排的真实成本。
And so longer term, we need a better system to manage emissions across the globe. The Baytown Blue hydrogen was an attempt to take advantage of the desire to drive into reductions fast in areas that we believe are fundamental to long-term emissions reductions, low carbon hydrogen is certainly one of those building blocks that we think at some point in time is going to play an important role. We needed to find an economic way to build a project so that we generated returns that were competitive in our portfolio. We had to work with the administration to make sure there was a solid policy in place that supported that investment, and we needed to develop a customer base that we're signing offtake agreements and committing to buy the products that we produce.
从长期来看，我们需要一个更优的全球减排管理体系。贝敦蓝氢项目就是希望在一些我们认为对长期减排至关重要的领域里尽快推进。低碳氢绝对是其中一个关键支柱，我们认为它迟早会发挥重要作用。我们需要找到一个经济上可行的方式来建设该项目，确保它能在我们投资组合中产生有竞争力的回报。我们还必须与政府合作，确保有稳固的政策支持这一投资，同时还要建立起客户基础，签订购电或购买协议，确保我们生产的产品有稳定的需求。
I think we've got a good project in hand that we think is very competitive and that will drive very competitive returns and certainly has a good place in our portfolio. I think the policy that's in place is—this is certainly—there's some debate today with the Trump administration. Our expectation is, while some of that policy may change, it will be done in a very thoughtful way and our expectation is the things that we need to drive low carbon hydrogen will probably stay in place, but we have to see that manifested.
我认为我们现在手上的这个项目很不错，具备良好的竞争力，有望带来可观回报，并在我们的整体组合中占有一席之地。至于政策，目前确实存在一些不确定性，特别是如果特朗普政府回归会带来哪些变化还不确定。我们预期，即使政策有所调整，也会是比较理性、经过深思熟虑的调整。我们认为，支持低碳氢发展的关键政策可能会被保留，但这还需要我们继续观察政策最终如何落地。
And the third piece that we're working on is the sales commitments and having the offtake agreements, I'd say right now, that's probably the long pole in the tent with respect to driving this. And so when that—when those 2 things come together, and we're confident that we have what we need to generate the returns that it's going to be required to justify the investments we'll move forward. Hopefully, that's later this year. But as we've been saying all along, it's very much a function of locking those things down, so we're confident that we'll generate the returns on those investments.
第三个关键点是销售承诺，也就是签订购买协议（offtake agreement）。我可以说，这可能是目前推动项目最具挑战的一环。所以当上述两个方面都能就位，并且我们有信心项目能够带来预期回报，达到投资门槛时，我们就会推进最终投资决策。希望可以在今年晚些时候实现。但我们始终强调，能否推进项目，关键就在于是否能把这些关键条件落实下来，确保我们的投资能获得合理回报。
Operator
The next question is from John Royall of JPMorgan.
下一位提问者是摩根大通的约翰·罗伊尔。
John Royall
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my question is on Pioneer. You're hitting the 1-year anniversary of closing the transaction. I was just hoping for an update on how you're tracking in the various buckets of synergies today. And particularly on the production side, the improved recoveries you've talked about, I know it was a little longer dated, but just any commentary on how those efforts are tracking.
你好，早上好。感谢你们回答我的问题。我想问一下关于先锋（Pioneer）公司的情况。你们即将迎来完成该收购交易的一周年。我希望能听听目前你们在各类协同效益方面的进展情况。尤其是在产量方面，你们曾提到通过技术提升可采储量——我知道这部分时间跨度较长，但是否可以分享一下这些工作的推进情况？
Darren Woods
Yes, sure. Thank you John. Appreciate the question and good morning. I would tell you across all the areas where we saw opportunities to add value by combining what were two great organizations, independent organizations are frankly, finding more value opportunities than we anticipated. So at the corporate plan update, I know that we upped annual average synergies we expect to see over the first 10 years from $2 billion to $3 billion. Our view today is that numbers are even bigger, and so we're making really good progress. I think everybody who's working in that resource, that business that we have—whether you're heritage ExxonMobil or whether you are Pioneer—are really excited by the opportunity. It has been truly a best-of-both approach, and the value that the people Pioneer brought to this effort and the enthusiasm ExxonMobil folks brought to this is just really paying off in spades.
当然可以，谢谢你约翰，早上好。我们在两家原本就非常优秀的公司整合中识别到的所有增值机会，实际上比我们最初预计的还要多。在最新的公司战略更新中，我们已将未来十年每年协同效益的预期从20亿美元上调至30亿美元。而现在我们看到的数字甚至还要更大，所以我们目前进展非常顺利。我想，无论是来自埃克森美孚本身的员工，还是来自先锋的同仁，都对这次整合带来的机遇感到非常兴奋。这是真正意义上的“优势结合”，先锋团队所带来的价值，加上埃克森美孚团队的热情投入，正在产生显著成效。
这样的兼并就是冲着垄断去的，苹果和Google之间的默契很可能大于竞争，非常自然的选择。
So I don't think we have finished mining the value that we see in this combination. So I'm very optimistic. I think as we head to the back of the year, you'll continue to see the improvements in the value manifest themselves and the data that comes out, and my expectation is we'll continue to grow the synergy values going forward and would expect to update with you -- with you when we share our corporate plan update at the end of this year, but basically full steam ahead, everything is looking very, very good, and we're exceeding our own expectations.
我认为，我们在这次整合中挖掘的价值远未结束，所以我非常乐观。我预计进入今年下半年后，大家会在公开的数据中看到协同效应带来的进一步价值提升。我们预计未来协同效益还将持续扩大，并将在今年年底的公司战略更新中与大家分享最新的进展。总的来说，目前一切进展顺利，远超我们自己的预期。
John Royall
Thank you.
谢谢。
Darren Woods
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator
The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.
下一位提问者是来自加拿大皇家银行（RBC）的比拉吉·博卡塔里亚。
Biraj Borkhataria
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to go back to your CapEx plans. When you presented your plan in December, there was a sort of a wedge of CapEx that was policy dependent, things you would like to do provided the right environment was there. And would it be fair to assume in the near term, at least, given the amount of uncertainty we see that CapEx gets pushed to the right. And I'm thinking of things like the Dayton project, given the uncertainty on the policy and the tariffs?
你好，谢谢你们回答我的问题。我想回到你们的资本支出（CapEx）计划。在你们去年12月发布的战略中，有一部分CapEx是依赖政策支持的，也就是说，这部分投资只有在外部环境合适时才会推进。那么，在当前不确定性较大的背景下，是否可以理解为这些CapEx在近期会推迟？比如说像戴顿（Dayton）项目，政策和关税上的不确定性是否会影响它的进度？
And then the second question is just a specific one on Mozambique. Is my understanding that you sold out of the floating development, [Indiscernible] North in exchange for higher interest in the onshore development in a swap. Just wanted to confirm that and understand your rationale of that deal and how you expect that project to progress going forward? Thank you.
第二个问题是关于莫桑比克。我理解是你们退出了海上浮式开发项目，转而通过置换增加了在陆上项目的权益。想确认这个理解是否正确，以及你们为何这样安排？你们怎么看待该项目未来的推进？
Darren Woods
Yes. On the CapEx, you're right that we did break it out to be clear on what was base spend that was needed to kind of continue to drive and manage the growth in our base business. We had a bucket that was early stage projects where we had in that forecast going forward, put in some capital spend based on successfully FID in those projects. Those had not been decisions made yet, but we made room for them in our base plan.
是的，说到资本支出，你说得没错，我们在战略中确实对不同类别的支出做了划分。我们明确区分了基本支出——这部分是为了维持和推动基础业务的增长；还有一部分是早期项目，这些项目虽然还未做出最终投资决策（FID），但我们在规划中预留了资本空间，假设它们能最终落地。
And then obviously, things that were dependent upon policy and—you remember—we had Proxxima and Carbon Material Ventures, which we continue to feel very good about with respect to the value and use and the applications, and those are growing. But as you build—introduce new products into new markets, you can't be completely sure of those and so we wanted to make sure there was a clear line of sight to those buckets that had—that were dependent upon achieving success.
还有一些项目是依赖于政策支持的。你可能记得我们有Proxxima和碳材料创新项目，这些项目我们依然看好，无论是其应用价值还是增长潜力。但在将新产品引入新市场的过程中，结果往往并不确定，所以我们当时特意明确指出哪些支出类别需要满足一定条件才能推进。
So—and I would say at this stage, all those buckets are basically on track. The policy question, I think, early stages. We'll have that answer here as we go through the third quarter, I suspect. And so I don't anticipate at this stage tariffs or uncertainty delaying anything that we're doing with respect to that. As I mentioned earlier, probably the biggest challenge on our Baytown Blue Hydrogen Project is signing up to customers and getting the offtake, which we had a good line of sight to, we've got some very solid discussions that we're having in there. So I hope to see that come through. But—so right now, I wouldn't suggest that we're going to see a lot of capital slipping out of the plan horizon. But year-to-year, you may see some movement, but frankly, right now, from what we can tell. We're on track with the longer-term plans that we've laid out.
总的来说，我认为目前各部分CapEx都在按照原计划推进。政策方面的影响还处于早期阶段，预计第三季度我们会有更清晰的答案。目前我不认为关税或政策不确定性会导致我们的项目延期。正如我之前提到的，贝敦蓝氢项目的最大挑战反而是客户签约和产能锁定，这方面我们正在进行深入洽谈。就目前而言，我不认为会有大量资本从中长期规划中滑出。当然，单年之间可能会有些变动，但整体上，我们的长期规划是按部就班在执行的。
Kathy Mikells
I would just add to that. If you look at our low-carbon investments. Probably the biggest thing we're investing in this year is CCS and we'll be bringing on our first customer in that CCS business and so that's progressing really well. We have the permanent storage. We've drilled the wells. We've got the monitoring put in place, and so we're feeling very good about how that business is progressing. So we did carve out. It was $30 billion of our total CapEx from 2024 through 2030, it's about 10% of our total CapEx. But if you look at all the different projects we have in the low carbon space, they're progressing pretty well right now.
我来补充一下。从低碳投资的角度来看，今年我们最大的单项投资是碳捕集与封存（CCS）。我们将在该业务中迎来首个客户，目前项目进展非常顺利。我们已经完成了永久封存地点的建设，钻井工作已经完成，监测系统也已部署完毕，我们对项目的发展非常有信心。在2024至2030年期间，我们在低碳领域的CapEx规划总额约为300亿美元，占整体CapEx的10%左右。从各个低碳项目来看，目前整体进展都不错。
Darren Woods
Yes. And then with respect to Mozambique, I won't get into any of the specifics on what we've been doing there other than to say, as a philosophy, we're absolutely convinced that with respect to developing large projects, large complicated projects that we bring a huge advantage to those efforts the strength that we have in our global projects organization. I think, frankly, is hard for any other company to replicate. And we want to make sure that as we deploy that advantage that we've got the right-sized stake in our developments to adjust the effort. And I would say that's just the general philosophy that we're taking across our entire portfolio.
关于莫桑比克项目，我就不谈具体细节了，只谈谈我们的原则。我们坚信，在开发大型、复杂项目方面，埃克森美孚具备独特优势。我们的全球项目组织架构所带来的能力，是其他公司很难复制的。我们在部署这些能力的时候，必须确保我们在各个开发项目中拥有合适的权益比例，从而匹配我们的投入强度。这其实是我们在整个投资组合中始终坚持的一种总体战略思维。
Biraj Borkhataria
Okay, thank you.
好的，谢谢你们。
Operator
The next question is from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.
下一位提问者是来自美国银行的简·安·索尔兹伯里。
Jean Ann Salisbury
Good morning. A bit of a follow-up to an earlier question. But at your Investor Day in December, you cased the new Coke province that you believe could be a big contributor to raising AURs by 15%. Now with four more months of well data, is that province still performing to that expectation, even exceeding the expectation?
早上好。这其实是对之前某个问题的一个跟进。在你们去年12月的投资者日上，你们介绍了新开辟的Coke区域，认为它有望显著提升每口井的平均可采资源（AUR），最高可达15%。现在又过去了四个月，你们获得了更多井的数据，请问这个区域的表现是否仍符合你们当初的预期，甚至是否已经超出预期？
Darren Woods
Yes. Yes, good morning. I would say I've been progressing the deployment of the low weight proppant, setting up the supply chain and logistics systems to support that. I would tell you that today, we're as enthusiastic, if not more, associated with the value opportunity that we're seeing there with the ongoing results of the wells that we've already deployed that technology to. So that's, I think, going forward, going to continue to be a critical part of the portfolio. And frankly, like a lot of the technical advances that we make in the company, we generally surprised ourselves with the improvements that we make over time as we gain experience through deployment and my expectation is we'd see something similar there, but the 15% that we talked about is still a very good number, a good solid base.
是的，是的，早上好。我们一直在推进低密度支撑剂（low weight proppant）的应用，同时也在建设相应的供应链和物流体系来支持这一技术。我可以告诉你，到目前为止，我们对Coke区域看到的价值机会仍然感到非常兴奋，甚至比之前更有信心——特别是我们已在部分井上部署了该项技术，并从中获得了持续的正面结果。我认为这个区域未来仍将是我们资产组合中的一个关键部分。说实话，就像我们在公司内部推动的许多技术进步一样，随着实际部署经验的积累，我们常常能取得比预期更大的改善。我预计在这个项目上也会有类似的情况。但我们先前提到的15%的AUR提升，依然是一个可靠、扎实的基准数字。
Jean Ann Salisbury
Great. Thank you.
太好了，谢谢你。
Darren Woods
You bet.
不客气。
Operator
The next question is from Alastair Syme of Citi.
下一位提问者是花旗银行的阿拉斯泰尔·赛姆。
Alastair Syme
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. Darren, just because you mentioned it in your prepared remarks that the litigation against the European Union on windfall tax, I think that originally filed back in 2022. Where does this process currently sit? And what do you think the time line is on resolution?
你好，感谢你们提供提问机会。达伦，你在准备发言中提到过对欧盟征收暴利税的诉讼，我记得这起案件最初是在2022年提起的。请问目前这个案件的进展如何？你们认为大致会在什么时候得到解决？
Darren Woods
Good morning, Alastair. Thanks for the question. I would just maybe put that in the category of a number of the lawsuits that we've been involved in over the years. The wheels of justice turn slow. So my expectation, and I don't have a good timeline for that, but my expectation is that it will be—like a lot of these legal cases—something that winds its way through the procedural legal process, and we'll see where we get to on that, but I don't have an update on that today.
早上好，阿拉斯泰尔。谢谢你的问题。我想这起诉讼可以归入我们这些年参与的众多法律案件之一。法律的程序进展通常都比较缓慢。我目前确实没有一个明确的时间表，但预计这起案子会像很多其他法律诉讼一样，经历一系列法律程序，最终走到一个结果。就目前来说，我没有关于这起案件的进一步更新可以分享。
Alastair Syme
Okay, thank you.
好的，谢谢。
Darren Woods
You bet.
不客气。
Operator
The next question is from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.
下一位提问者是来自富国银行的罗杰·里德。
Roger Read
Yes, good morning.
早上好。
Darren Woods
Good morning, Roger.
早上好，罗杰。
Roger Read
I'd like to come back on some of the end of your opening comments about—I believe it's $12 billion of cost savings achieved so far, $18 billion target by the end of the decade. When you previously kind of talked about the next stage of cost savings, it seems to have been logistics-focused. Nothing really said this time. So I'm just curious, as we think about the incremental $6 billion, is that logistics and procurement, or has that grown as well or expanded in terms of the type of things you're looking to cut costs on?
我想回到你开场发言的最后部分，你们已经实现了约120亿美元的成本削减，并计划在本十年末达到180亿美元的目标。在之前的沟通中，你们曾提到下一阶段的节约主要集中在物流方面。但这次似乎没有再详细提及。我想请问，接下来要实现的额外60亿美元节约，是否仍主要来自物流和采购，或者是否有扩展到其他更多类型的成本优化？
Darren Woods
Sure. I'll hand it over to Kathy in a minute for some more specifics. But I would just say, first of all, it's close to $13 billion through the first quarter. Those dollars are hard to come by, so I don't want to shortchange the organization. I think $12.7 billion is where we're at at the end of this quarter, which I just think putting that in context—if you go back through since 2019—the organization is delivering, on average, almost $2.5 billion of structural cost savings per year.
当然可以。我稍后会请凯西来补充一些具体内容。但首先我想说，其实我们到今年第一季度已经接近130亿美元的成本削减。这个成果来之不易，我不想让大家低估组织的努力。我们在本季度末的累计节省是127亿美元——从2019年至今，平均每年大约削减了25亿美元的结构性成本。
And we've got a good clip in momentum going, where I would tell you the organization that we have in place today is as excited about finding opportunities to get more efficient as they are about finding ways to get more effective and deliver more value. And so I think we're in a really good place as an organization that recognizes the critical importance of being on the low side of the cost of supply curve—of being a very efficient producer—and that there's a lot of energy and momentum to finding that.
目前我们的节奏非常好，整个组织对提升效率的热情不亚于提升效能和创造价值的热情。我们的团队已经深刻意识到保持在供应成本曲线的低端是多么重要——我们需要成为最有效率的生产商。这种意识也推动了大家不断寻找降本增效的机会。
When you couple that with the opportunity set that we're finding by bringing together centralized organizations and—really for the first time in the company's history—being able to take organizations that are very focused on a specific piece of value creation and have them look across the entire portfolio, all of our businesses, all of our assets, all around the globe and find opportunities to leverage their expertise in a particular area of the value chain...
再加上我们首次真正整合了集中化的职能团队，让本来专注于某一特定价值环节的团队，得以横向查看我们全球范围内所有业务与资产，在整条价值链上发现优化机会——你可以想象，在埃克森美孚这样体量的公司中，这种能力带来的机会空间有多大。
When you then couple that with the work that we're doing with the new enterprise system to get all the data that has historically been distributed across our organization, centralized, organized in a consistent way—frankly, I think the opportunity set is enormous, and we're making good progress on that, and in a lot of different areas—and I'll let Kathy touch on some of the specifics.
同时我们也在推进企业数字系统的整合，把原本分散在不同部门的数据集中起来、结构化、标准化。从这一点上看，我认为我们的机会空间非常大，我们也在多个方向上取得了实质性进展。接下来我请凯西来谈一些具体内容。
Kathy Mikells
Yes. And so if you think about the go-forward plan, a large amount of the cost savings that we expect to achieve is going to come from these newer centralized organizations. So you mentioned logistics and then you kind of tied that with procurement. I would say procurement is alive and well at ExxonMobil. And they're constantly looking to make sure that they're really leaning into the full scale and integrated approach at ExxonMobil in terms of how we drive our costs down.
是的。如果你看我们后续的计划，很大一部分节省将来自这些新设立的集中化职能组织。你提到了物流和采购，这两个确实是重点领域。我可以说，采购在埃克森美孚依然非常活跃且关键——我们的采购团队一直在推动公司用整合化、大规模的方式来持续降低成本。
But if you think about logistics, it's as much about reducing the number of movements and making sure we have full containers—both outbound and return—not just the cost of a container. A great example would be something like Guyana, where the number of ships moving daily to supply the drilling campaign and FPSOs is huge. So just using better data to reduce unnecessary trips saves us big, not just in direct logistics cost but in overall efficiency.
至于物流，我们现在不仅仅看运输单价，而是关注能否减少运输次数，确保出港和回程的集装箱都是满载的。一个很好的例子是圭亚那项目，那里的钻井和FPSO支持每天都有大量船只往返。如果我们能借助更精准的数据来减少航次，那不仅能节约运输成本，还能大幅提升整体效率。
Another key driver is automation. We’re using technology to reduce manual workload—for example, we recently rolled out a platform called BlackLine in accounting. It helped us automate what was previously tens of thousands of hours of manual processes.
另一个关键推动力是自动化。我们正在利用技术减少人工工作量，比如最近在财务系统中上线了BlackLine平台，它让我们能够自动处理过去需要成千上万小时手工完成的流程。
降本的措施看着不够具体化。
The real power comes from having clean, corporate-wide data. With that, we can make better decisions, automate further, and apply best practices across global maintenance, turnarounds, and day-to-day operations. That’s where we see the next wave of structural savings—truly sustainable improvements, not just doing more with less, but changing the way we work.
真正的潜力来自于全公司范围内的数据整合。有了高质量的数据，我们可以做出更好的决策、进一步推动自动化，并将最佳实践推广到全球各地的检修、大修和日常运维中。这正是我们下一阶段结构性节约的来源——是真正可持续的改进，不是简单地用更少的人做更多的事，而是彻底改变工作的方式。
So to summarize, these $12.7 billion of savings already achieved surpass what all our competitors have done combined—and we believe we’re just getting started.
总结一下，我们目前实现的127亿美元节省，已经超过了所有同行公司加起来的成果——而且我们相信，这才刚刚开始。
Roger Read
I appreciate that. And I had no intention, Darren or Kathy, of sort of using the $700 million as just a rounding number in my own mind. Thank you.
我很感激这个解答。达伦、凯西，我绝无将7亿美元当作“可忽略的小数点”对待的意思，谢谢你们。
Darren Woods
Yes. No problem, Roger. We like to round up when it's $12.7 billion.
没问题，罗杰。当总数是127亿美元时，我们也愿意“往上取整”。
Roger Read
Fair enough.
说得对。
Operator
The next question is from Bob Brackett of Bernstein Research.
下一位提问者是来自伯恩斯坦研究的鲍勃·布拉克特。
Bob Brackett
Good morning. A question around tariffs and how they relate to your project organization. So how should we think about moving modules, equipment into maybe U.S. projects? And what did tariffs do to that? And what does the project organization do to make sure you hit your CapEx numbers and deliver on time?
早上好。我想问一下关于关税的问题，以及它们对你们项目执行组织的影响。比如在将模块、设备运入美国项目时，我们应该如何看待关税带来的影响？关税会对这些产生什么样的作用？你们的项目组织又是如何确保仍能按资本支出预算执行，并按时交付项目？
Darren Woods
Sure. Thank you, Bob, good morning. I'd say it's a project organization activity as well as procurement and our supply chain. So it is a whole core effort in terms of managing the specifics of the tariffs, how they manifest themselves. I would say, generally speaking, for the things that are in flight where we've got work going on, contracted, things we've FID-ed—I think the way we've structured those contracts and the position where we're at with each of those—we're pretty well shielded from the impacts of tariffs.
当然，谢谢你，鲍勃，早上好。这其实不仅仅是项目执行组织的事，还涉及到采购团队和供应链管理，是一项跨职能的核心工作。在应对关税方面，我们整体都有很系统的措施来管理其可能带来的具体影响。总体而言，对于那些已经在实施的项目，比如已经签约、已经完成最终投资决策（FID）的项目，我们在合同结构设计和采购安排上都做了充分准备，目前基本可以说是对关税影响实现了较好的隔离。
What's really, I think, has more exposure is the new things that are coming down the pipe. And how the tariffs play out will drive the impact it potentially has on those projects. But I would very quickly say that to date, what we've seen and the work that we've done and the effort of the organization to minimize the impact—we don't today see a material impact on what we're doing in our project organization that would change the decisions that we're making, change the project portfolio that we're trying to advance, or frankly, change the economics and the returns associated with those projects.
目前来看，更可能受到影响的是那些还处于早期阶段、尚未定型的新项目。关税最终如何实施，将决定这些项目是否会受到实质性影响。但我可以很明确地说，截止目前，我们看到的情况，加上我们所做的准备和整个组织的应对努力，整体上并没有出现任何足以改变我们项目决策、调整项目组合、或者削弱项目经济性和预期回报的重大影响。
So it's still early days, but I've got a lot of confidence that the organization has got a lot of levers to pull to manage that. I would also tell you that I think there is a sensitivity by the Trump administration and other governments around the world to not severely impact the energy sector and the products that we produce. I think there's a very broad recognition of the critical role of the products that we produce in each of their economies—that recognize that what we do actually fuels the engines of their economy—and so there's a lot of sensitivity around that. And what we found in discussions around the world is governments want to understand the potential implications and are taking those things into consideration.
当然，现在还处于早期阶段，但我对我们组织有信心，因为我们有很多可以应对的策略。此外，我也认为，不论是特朗普政府还是其他国家的政府，在对能源行业施加关税时都非常谨慎。他们普遍意识到我们所生产的能源和产品对各自经济运转至关重要，正是我们在为这些经济“加油”。因此，在全球的政策对话中，我们发现各国政府其实都希望深入理解关税带来的影响，并会将这些因素纳入考虑。
So I would tell you today, we're certainly not immune to it, but I do believe we're well positioned to manage it and today, we haven't seen any significant issues or impact or not forecasting any.
所以我可以说，我们当然不能说完全不受影响，但我们完全有能力应对。截至目前，我们没有看到任何重大问题或实质性冲击，也不预计会出现。
Bob Brackett
Very clear. Thank you.
非常清楚，谢谢你。
Darren Woods
You bet.
不客气。
Operator
The next question is from Josh Silverstein of UBS.
下一位提问者是来自瑞银的乔什·西尔弗斯坦。
Joshua Silverstein
Good morning guys. At back of the Upstream spotlight, you highlighted how Exxon was kind of downshifting away from dry gas production. It's probably more related to the Lower 48. But just given the improving demand outlook, do you see any potential shift in the strategy here? Or is there just a lot of growth coming from the associated bucket that you can capture enough of the rising demand environment? Thank you.
大家早上好。在上游业务的重点介绍中，你们提到埃克森正在逐步降低干气产量，可能主要涉及美国本土48州地区。但考虑到当前天然气需求前景正在改善，请问你们是否会在战略上进行调整？还是说你们认为伴生气的产量增长已经足以抓住这个需求上升的趋势？谢谢。
Darren Woods
Yes, thank you for the question. No, I don't see a shift in strategy based on what we're seeing today. I mean, obviously, we've got a lot of associated gas, which—given the liquids that come along with that—have a fairly high value proposition. We have dry gas assets that we think would be competitive in the broader portfolio, but it's not the priority today. I mean we're obviously paying attention to how the markets develop.
是的，谢谢你的问题。根据我们目前的观察，并没有理由去调整战略。我们确实拥有大量伴生气资源——这些天然气与液态产品共同产出，因此其价值潜力很高。我们也有一些干气资产，它们在整个资产组合中具有竞争力，但当前并不是我们的重点。我们当然会密切关注市场的发展。
But frankly, our investment decisions, the strategies that we've put in place, are more anchored to what we think are long-term fundamentals. And we're going to respond and take advantage of short-term dynamics if we believe they're going to stick around long enough to deliver some additional value. But no shift in strategy, no shift in the kind of long term how we're thinking about the market development and where our emphasis should be.
坦率来说，我们的投资决策和整体战略更多是基于长期基本面的考量。如果我们认为某些短期市场变化会持续足够久、能带来额外价值，我们当然会灵活应对。但从长期来看，我们在市场发展上的思路和战略重点并没有改变。
Operator
The next question is from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler.
下一位提问者是来自派杰公司的瑞安·托德。
Ryan Todd
Hey thanks. Refining performance—your energy products performance was very strong in the first quarter. I wonder if you could comment on any particular drivers of that? And how do you see the market evolving from here over the course of the year as you think about supply/demand margins, etcetera?
谢谢你们。你们在第一季度的炼油和能源产品业务表现非常强劲，能否请你们谈谈背后的具体驱动因素？另外，从供需、利润率等方面来看，你们如何判断今年剩余时间里市场的走向？
Darren Woods
Sure. So I would say what we're delivering out of our energy products segment—and the refining business more specifically—is really a reflection of a lot of hard work that's been going on for many years now. First, we've been very focused on making sure we understand the competitive positioning of all of our assets, and where we see a deficiency or an opportunity to improve their competitive positioning and it justifies an investment that's advantaged, we’ll make those. We've really reconfigured a number of our facilities to bring in higher-value feedstocks, to produce higher-value products, and to improve the yield profile on those units.
当然可以。我认为我们在能源产品板块，尤其是炼油业务中展现出的强劲表现，反映的是我们过去多年所做的努力。首先，我们一直高度关注自身各项资产的竞争力定位，对于那些存在不足或可以提升竞争力的设施，只要有利可图、具备优势，我们就会投资优化。我们已经对多个炼油厂进行了重新配置，引入更高价值的原料、生产更高价值的产品，并优化了整体产品产出结构。
We’ve got a couple of examples—Rotterdam’s advanced hydrocracker, we brought in Blade on the Gulf Coast, we’re working on CRISP, and earlier we put a coker in Antwerp. So I think we’ve done a lot to improve the earnings power of the refineries that we feel are strategic and form a foundation within our organization.
举几个例子：我们在鹿特丹投产了先进的加氢裂化装置，在墨西哥湾沿岸投用了Blade项目，我们还在推进CRISP项目，早些时候在安特卫普也上了延迟焦化装置。这些都在强化我们认为具备战略地位、构成公司核心基础的炼厂的盈利能力。
And then—for the ones that we didn’t feel had the competitive positioning that we wanted and didn’t fit with our strategy—we’ve been doing a lot of work to high-grade our facilities and to sell those assets to companies with a better fit. So we've done a really good job of high-grading the portfolio and concentrating on the important refineries.
而对于那些不符合我们战略方向、竞争力也不够强的炼厂，我们就进行了组合优化，将相关资产出售给更匹配的公司。我们在整个炼油资产组合的高质量重构方面，已经做得非常出色，现在更专注于真正重要的核心炼厂。
And then with our global operations organization—really stepping back and taking the best thinking across the corporation, and from outside our industry as well—we’re focused on improving refinery performance: reducing maintenance costs, improving reliability, driving safety, and enhancing environmental performance. Across the board, we've seen tremendous value. Reliability is up and costs are down.
同时，我们的全球运营团队也在不断引入全公司范围内，甚至行业外的最佳思维与方法来提升炼厂运营表现，包括降低维修成本、提升可靠性、强化安全、改进环保表现等等。全线来看，这些举措创造了巨大价值——可靠性提升了，成本下降了。
So it's a great combination. Those things, I think, all come together to give us a very high-performing refining business that can weather the ups and downs.
所以这是一个很好的组合——这些因素共同造就了我们高绩效的炼油业务，使其具备穿越周期的能力。
I think going forward, it’s really tough to say exactly how the year is going to play out. There is certainly sufficient refining capacity out there. The demand—I think—remains uncertain, with a lot of debate about where world economies are going. So the supply-demand balance is unclear. That said, margins in Q2 are looking better than Q1, and I think some of that will hold due to seasonality.
展望未来，要准确预测今年的走势并不容易。全球炼油产能总体上是充足的，需求方面也存在诸多不确定性，尤其是在全球经济前景争议较大的情况下。所以供需平衡并不明朗。不过，目前第二季度的利润率看起来要比第一季度好，我认为部分改善应该会因为季节性因素而持续。
But frankly, we're not basing our business on being forecast heroes. We're basing it on sound operations. That strategy has paid off—certainly in Q4 and Q1—and we expect it will continue to do so going forward.
但说实话，我们不是靠预测市场当“预言家”来运营业务的，我们的核心是在于稳定高效的运营。这一战略已经在去年第四季度和今年第一季度得到了很好的回报，我们也预计它将在未来持续奏效。
Jim Chapman
All right. Thanks, Ryan. Thanks, everybody, for joining the call and for your questions. We're going to post the transcript of this call to the Investors section of our website by early next week. I hope everyone has a good weekend. And we look forward to connecting again later this month during our Annual Shareholders Meeting, which is on May 28. And that concludes today's call.
好的，谢谢你，瑞安。也感谢各位参与今天的电话会议并提出问题。我们将在下周初把本次电话会议的文字记录上传到公司官网的投资者关系板块。祝大家周末愉快，我们期待在本月晚些时候的年度股东大会（5月28日）再次与大家交流。今天的电话会议到此结束。
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