2025-05-06 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call May 6, 2025 9:30 AM ET
Company Participants
Douglas Constantine - Director, IR
Tricia Griffith - President and CEO
Patrick Callahan - President, Personal Lines
John Murphy - President, Claims
Jon Bauer - Chief Investment Officer
Conference Call Participants
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
Rob Cox - Goldman Sachs
Mike Zaremski - BMO
Alex Scott - Barclays
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Michael Phillips - Oppenheimer
Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan
David Motemaden - Evercore
Josh Shanker - Bank of America
Meyer Shields - KBW
Andrew Andersen - Jefferies
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
Operator
接线员
Douglas Constantine
道格拉斯·康斯坦丁
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's First Quarter Investor Event. I'm Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations and I will be a moderator for today's event.
早上好，感谢大家今天参加 Progressive 的第一季度投资者活动。我是道格·康斯坦丁，投资者关系总监，我将担任今天活动的主持人。
The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, and a letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website. Although our quarterly Investor Relation events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we want to [indiscernible] the 60 minutes scheduled for today's call for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team.
除了公司网站上已发布的年度报告（10-K 表格）、季度报告（10-Q 表格）和致股东函中提供的信息外，公司不会对其业绩发表详细评论。尽管我们的季度投资者关系活动通常会包含对我们业务特定部分的演示，但我们希望 [听不清] 今天电话会议安排的 60 分钟用于我们首席执行官的开场白以及与我们领导团队成员的问答环节。
Introductory comments by our CEO were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions-and-answers with members of our leadership team.
我们首席执行官的开场白已提前录制。在预录评论结束后，我们将利用本次活动安排的剩余 60 分钟时间与我们的领导团队成员进行现场问答。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event.
与往常一样，本次活动中的讨论可能包含前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，并受到许多风险和不确定性的影响，这些风险和不确定性可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的内容存在重大差异。
Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2024, as supplemented by our Form 10-Q for the first quarter of 2025, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, Safe Harbor statements related to forward-looking statements, and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations' section of our website at investors.progressive.com.
有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的年度报告（10-K 表格）以及我们 2025 年第一季度的季度报告（10-Q 表格）作为补充，您可以在其中找到有关影响我们业务的风险因素的讨论、与前瞻性陈述相关的安全港声明以及我们面临的其他挑战的讨论。这些文件可以通过我们网站的投资者关系部分 investors.progressive.com 找到。
To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?
今天开始，我很高兴向大家介绍我们的首席执行官特里西娅·格里菲斯，她将为我们做开场白。特里西娅？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Good morning and thank you for joining us today. Since the pandemic started in March of 2020, we've hosted 20 Investor Relations calls. And the common theme of those calls has been how our business is weathering uncertain and unique macroeconomic environment.
早上好，感谢大家今天加入我们。自 2020 年 3 月疫情开始以来，我们已经举办了 20 次投资者关系电话会议。这些会议的共同主题是我们的业务如何应对不确定且独特的宏观经济环境。
The last five years has shown challenge after challenge. And through it all, Progressive has not merely survived, but thrived. Following a fantastic 2024, we just delivered one of our best quarters ever with near-record margins coupled with record growth. As more challenges arise, including in the form of the macroeconomic effects of tariffs, I feel very confident in Progressive's ability to face the issues head on.
过去的五年充满了接踵而至的挑战。尽管如此，Progressive 不仅生存了下来，而且蓬勃发展。在经历了辉煌的 2024 年之后，我们刚刚交付了有史以来最好的季度之一，利润率接近历史最高水平，同时实现了创纪录的增长。随着更多挑战的出现，包括关税带来的宏观经济影响，我对 Progressive 直面问题的能力充满信心。
The momentum we had in 2024 carried us into 2025. And during the first quarter, we added new policies below our target acquisition cost and continued moving full speed ahead on growth with a focus on realizing our vision of becoming consumers', agents', and business owners' number one destination for insurance and other financial needs.
我们在 2024 年的势头延续到了 2025 年。在第一季度，我们以低于目标获客成本的价格增加了新保单，并继续全速推进增长，专注于实现我们的愿景，即成为消费者、代理商和企业主在保险及其他金融需求方面的首选。
Even though our competitors have reported improved profitability over the last couple of quarters, the shopping environment in personal auto has remained very favorable to Progressive.
尽管我们的竞争对手在过去几个季度报告了盈利能力的改善，但个人汽车保险的购买环境对 Progressive 仍然非常有利。
You may recall that the first quarter 2023 set the record for the most new personal auto applications of any other first quarter in our history. Well, I'm proud to say that the first quarter 2025 personal auto new applications surpassed the previous record by over 20%.
您可能还记得，2023 年第一季度创下了我们历史上所有第一季度中新增个人汽车保险申请数量的最高纪录。嗯，我很自豪地说，2025 年第一季度个人汽车保险的新增申请数量比之前的记录高出 20% 以上。
Our results achieved because of both more quotes, and higher conversion of those quotes to a sale. More year-over-year quotes, mean our customer acquisition machine is running efficiently and strong conversion in both channels suggest a very good price competitiveness.
我们的业绩归功于更多的报价以及这些报价向销售的更高转化率。同比报价的增加意味着我们的客户获取机制正在高效运行，而两个渠道的强劲转化率则表明我们具有非常好的价格竞争力。
Growth is not just happening in personal auto. In property, we increased homeowners policies enforced in the less volatile states and reduced policies enforced in the more volatile state. We're also continuing to significantly grow our renters business.
增长不仅仅发生在个人汽车保险领域。在财产险方面，我们增加了在波动性较小州的有效房主保单数量，并减少了在波动性较大州的有效保单数量。我们还在继续大力发展我们的租房者保险业务。
In commercial lines, although the trucking space continues to be challenging, core commercial auto new applications are up 8% year-over-year and our business auto and contractor BMT has experienced significant growth in new applications.
在商业险方面，尽管卡车运输领域仍然充满挑战，但核心商业汽车保险的新增申请同比增长了 8%，我们的商业汽车和承包商 BMT（业务和医疗运输）的新增申请也经历了显著增长。
In addition to growth, our personal auto and property products as well as commercial lines have year-to-date combined ratios below 90, a significant achievement considering the industry's challenges in property and commercial auto.
除了增长之外，我们的个人汽车和财产险产品以及商业险业务的年初至今综合成本率均低于 90，考虑到行业在财产险和商业车险方面面临的挑战，这是一项重大成就。
Despite the significant turmoil in financial markets in recent weeks as investors react to tariffs and other news, I'm pleased to report that our balance sheet has remained strong.
尽管最近几周由于投资者对关税和其他消息做出反应，金融市场出现剧烈动荡，但我很高兴地报告，我们的资产负债表依然强劲。
At quarter end, common equities were only 4% of our total portfolio. And thus far, it has been largely insulated from stock market volatility. Additionally, we have been generating capital at a brisk pace, both from strong underwriting profitability and investment returns.
截至本季度末，普通股仅占我们总投资组合的 4%。到目前为止，它基本上没有受到股市波动的影响。此外，我们一直以很快的速度创造资本，这既得益于强劲的承保盈利能力，也得益于投资回报。
For the quarter, our investment portfolio generated investment income that was 32% greater than the first quarter last year and averaged over $270 million a month year-to-date.
本季度，我们的投资组合产生的投资收益比去年第一季度高出 32%，年初至今平均每月超过 2.7 亿美元。
We are still in the early days of the tariffs and the effects may not be known until sometime in the future. The interconnectedness of global trade makes it even more difficult to predict where and how quickly the impact of tariffs will work their way through supply chain and ultimately, our loss cost.
我们仍处于关税实施的初期，其影响可能要到未来某个时候才能显现。全球贸易的相互关联性使得预测关税影响将以何种方式、多快速度波及供应链并最终影响我们的赔付成本变得更加困难。
Determining our rate levels is a prospective exercise where we try to predict future loss trends and other costs to be able to set appropriate rates to achieve our underwriting profitability goal.
确定我们的费率水平是一项前瞻性的工作，我们试图预测未来的赔付趋势和其他成本，以便能够设定适当的费率来实现我们的承保盈利目标。
Since late 2024, our talented team of pricers, modelers, analysts, and actuaries have been modeling various scenarios to allow us to assess the impact of potential tariffs on our business to help us to be prepared to react as quickly as possible.
自 2024 年底以来，我们由定价员、建模师、分析师和精算师组成的优秀团队一直在对各种情景进行建模，以便我们评估潜在关税对我们业务的影响，帮助我们做好尽快反应的准备。
In our fourth quarter 2021 IR call, we talked about our ability to gather data quickly, process it effectively, and react to it decisively. I believe we're better at this than anyone else in the industry. And proof of this is that over the last 20 years, periods of macroeconomic turmoil have often directly coincided with Progressive's most successful periods.
在我们 2021 年第四季度的投资者关系电话会议上，我们谈到了我们快速收集数据、有效处理数据并果断做出反应的能力。我相信我们在这方面比业内任何其他公司都做得更好。证明这一点的是，在过去的 20 年里，宏观经济动荡时期往往与 Progressive 最成功的时期直接吻合。
More recently, the inflationary environment of 2021 through 2023 proved that we were able to manage through rapid unpredictable increases in loss costs and manage our calendar year combined ratio. I think that we have the tools, systems, and most importantly, the people to react quickly and effectively during times of market disruption.
最近，2021 年至 2023 年的通货膨胀环境证明，我们能够应对赔付成本的快速、不可预测的增长，并管理好我们的日历年综合成本率。我认为我们拥有工具、系统，最重要的是，我们拥有能够在市场动荡时期迅速有效做出反应的人员。
While I can't know what the future holds, I believe the odds are strongly in favor of Progressive to once again manage through whatever lies ahead, better than anyone else in the industry.
虽然我无法预知未来会发生什么，但我相信 Progressive 很有可能再次比业内任何其他公司更好地应对未来的一切。
Thank you again for joining us today, and I will now take your questions.
再次感谢您今天加入我们，现在我将回答大家的问题。
Okay, here is the English-Chinese parallel translation of the provided text, following your formatting instructions.
Douglas Constantine
道格拉斯·康斯坦丁
This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions. [Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question.
今天活动的预录部分到此结束。现在我们的管理团队成员将在线回答问题。[操作员说明] 我们现在开始提第一个问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
接线员
The first question is from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.
第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。请提问。
Bob Huang
Hi, good morning everybody. My first question is on auto rates. So, obviously, auto profitability has been pretty incredible well ahead of your target at 96%. Now taking tariff uncertainties into consideration, do you plan to take rate decreases in order to accelerate growth? Or do you think that it's better just to keep rates static to maintain the current earnings profile? Curious on your thoughts on this.
大家早上好。我的第一个问题是关于汽车保险费率的。很明显，汽车保险的盈利能力非常惊人，远高于你们 96% 的目标。现在考虑到关税的不确定性，你们是计划降低费率以加速增长，还是认为最好保持费率不变以维持当前的盈利状况？想听听你们对此的看法。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Good morning Bob. Well, as you know, we look state-by-state, product-by-product when we look at rates. And in fact, the last quarter, we took about a dozen state rates up and a dozen state rates down, but mainly flat. So, we're going to do all we can to continue the growth engine, and so we monitor that at a very granular level.
早上好，Bob。嗯，如你所知，我们在研究费率时会逐个州、逐个产品地进行分析。事实上，上个季度，我们上调了大约十几个州的费率，下调了大约十几个州的费率，但总体上保持平稳。因此，我们将尽一切努力继续推动增长引擎，并在非常精细的层面上对此进行监控。
Obviously, we're sitting on some nice margin with an 86% combined ratio in the first quarter. And with the unknowns around tariffs, we obviously have to think about that for future. But we are business as usual, trying to make sure we grow as fast as we can, and that means in some states, taking rates up a little bit and some rates taking them down a little bit.
显然，我们第一季度的综合成本率为 86%，利润空间相当可观。考虑到关税方面的不确定性，我们显然需要为未来考虑这一点。但我们一切照常，努力确保尽可能快地增长，这意味着在某些州，费率会略有上调，而在另一些州则会略有下调。
I think the good thing is that we are back to where we wanted to be in terms of what we call small bites at the apple. We know that our insured like stable rates, we're going to do our best to keep it that way, but to also continue with our growth engine.
我认为好的一点是，我们又回到了我们所说的“小口吃苹果”的状态。我们知道我们的受保人喜欢稳定的费率，我们将尽最大努力保持这种状态，但同时也会继续推动我们的增长引擎。
Bob Huang
Okay, thank you for that. My second question is on advertising, right? You significantly ramped up your ad spending for the quarter. If we think about the three major advertising channels: TV, digital, radio -- I can't believe I'm saying radio. But like where is the most ad spending growth should come from going forward? Is there any specific ad channel that you think might be overly saturated and spending there might not be worth the dollars? Just curious your view on advertising spending as well as the competitive environment there?
好的，谢谢。我的第二个问题是关于广告的，对吧？你们本季度大幅增加了广告支出。如果我们考虑三个主要的广告渠道：电视、数字媒体、广播——我简直不敢相信我提到了广播。但是，未来广告支出增长主要会来自哪里？有没有哪个特定的广告渠道你们认为可能已经过度饱和，在那里投入资金可能不值得？只是好奇你们对广告支出以及相关竞争环境的看法？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, we always look at that. We have several business reviews a year, but one big one where we talk about all the different ways with which we want to spend. Clearly, digital has been up in the last several years because that makes sense for people -- you said that about radio, but it works. So, we look at everything.
是的，我们一直在关注这个问题。我们每年都会进行几次业务评估，其中一次重要的评估会讨论我们希望采用的各种支出方式。显然，过去几年数字媒体的投入一直在增加，因为这对人们来说是有意义的——你刚才提到了广播，但它确实有效。所以，我们会全面考虑。
In fact, the funny thing you say is, every time we have a business review, I talk about direct mail but if it works, and it's efficient, we use it. So, we look at all of that, and we are not going to spend $1 more than we think we should to acquire new business.
事实上，你说得很有趣，每次我们进行业务评估时，我都会谈到直接邮寄广告，但如果它有效，而且效率高，我们就会使用它。所以，我们会全面考虑所有这些，我们不会在获取新业务上多花一分钱，除非我们认为有必要。
Bob Huang
Got it. I'll be looking for that. Progressive is mainly in my mail box.
明白了。我会留意的。我的邮箱里主要都是 Progressive 的邮件。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
You got it.
没错。
Bob Huang
Take care.
保重。
Operator
接线员
The next question is from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自高盛的 Rob Cox。请提问。
Rob Cox
Hey thanks. First question I had for you was on new business penalty. I was just hoping you guys could talk about the impact of the new business penalty today in personal auto and the magnitude of -- if the magnitude of that penalty has kind of changed over time? And I'm curious because it seems almost indistinguishable in the results of current combined ratios or maybe it's being masked by mix shift or something else?
嘿，谢谢。我给你们的第一个问题是关于新业务惩罚的。我只是希望你们能谈谈今天新业务惩罚在个人汽车保险中的影响，以及——如果这个惩罚的幅度随着时间的推移有所改变的话？我很好奇，因为它在当前综合成本率的结果中似乎几乎无法区分，或者它可能被组合转变或其他因素掩盖了？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, I mean I think we definitely -- when we reopen for business, or I should say we sort of tightened up for business, we did see an increase in the preferred market. But -- and I'll let Pat talk about this a little bit if he wants to. But I feel like we're always going to have the new business sort of, "penalty" on the direct side because of the way we expense our business and our advertising upfront so that first term is going to look much differently than the terms after that. I feel like we're in a different position here and a lot of that, I think, is based on the size we are. Do you want to add anything, Pat?
是的，我的意思是，我认为我们肯定——当我们重新开展业务时，或者我应该说我们某种程度上收紧了业务，我们确实看到优先市场的增长。但是——如果帕特愿意，我会让他稍微谈谈这个。但我觉得，由于我们预先支出业务和广告费用的方式，我们在直销方面总是会遇到新业务的某种“惩罚”，所以第一个保单年度看起来会与之后的保单年度大不相同。我觉得我们现在处于不同的位置，我认为这在很大程度上取决于我们的规模。帕特，你有什么要补充的吗？
Patrick Callahan
帕特里克·卡拉汉
Yes. The only thing I'd add is first quarter is typically a strong growth quarter for us. And baked into our acquisition costs is the lifetime expense to bring a policy on board. So, we are continuing to price to our lifetime cost.
是的。我唯一要补充的是，第一季度通常是我们的强劲增长季度。我们的购置成本中包含了引入一份保单的终身费用。因此，我们将继续根据我们的终身成本进行定价。
And yes, when you grow quickly, there's a slightly higher combined ratio due to the expensing of ad expense. But on a quarter-over-quarter basis, it's not materially different, I don't think, than sort of what we've seen in the past when we've grown new apps 30% in a quarter.
是的，当你快速增长时，由于广告费用的支出，综合成本率会略高一些。但我认为，与我们过去在季度新增应用程序增长 30% 时所看到的情况相比，季度环比并没有实质性的不同。
Rob Cox
Okay, got it. Appreciate the color. And the second one I had for you was on policy life expectancy. You mentioned the strong growth in the quarter. And that was despite policy life expectancy, a little bit lighter versus last time you reported it. Is that just more reflective of the increase shopping environment, and that's more of an industry dynamic? Or is that being driven by something else?
好的，明白了。感谢您的说明。我给您的第二个问题是关于保单生命周期的。您提到了本季度的强劲增长。尽管保单生命周期与您上次报告时相比略有缩短。这仅仅是更多地反映了购物环境的增加，并且更多的是一种行业动态吗？还是由其他因素驱动的？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, that's definitely part of it, Rob. What I would say is that PLE is pretty complex, and there's a lot of things that can affect it. What I would say, there's a couple of inputs as we've sort of de-comped it. When we were closing -- when we needed to get rated and we kind of tightened up, especially our underwriting appetite, that affected PLE from a positive perspective.
是的，Rob，这绝对是其中一部分原因。我想说的是，保单生命周期（PLE）相当复杂，有很多因素会影响它。我想说，在我们对其进行分解时，有几个输入因素。当我们收紧业务——当我们为了获得评级而收紧业务，尤其是我们的承保偏好时，这对 PLE 产生了积极影响。
Now we've opened up for business, which means our mix has shifted back to sort of what our normal mix would be. So, think of bands that are inconsistently insured. Now, I will tell you, we know Sams, so we know how to make money on Sams. So, we want all the Sams we can get as long as they meet our target profit margins. This is our roots of growing up a non-standard company. So, that mix shift is part of it.
现在我们已经放开业务，这意味着我们的业务组合已经回到了正常的水平。所以，可以想象那些投保不稳定的群体。现在，我要告诉你，我们了解“Sams”（指特定客户群体），所以我们知道如何在“Sams”身上赚钱。因此，只要他们符合我们的目标利润率，我们希望获得尽可能多的“Sams”。这是我们作为一家非标准公司发展壮大的根基。所以，这种业务组合的转变是其中一部分原因。
改不掉的基因。
I think with the shopping environment, there's a lot of pressure on renewals and that means people are shopping, which makes sense. And I think it's important for people to find the right rate and prices are very competitive which also means our insurers could contemplate shopping.
我认为在当前的购物环境下，续保面临很大压力，这意味着人们会货比三家，这是合乎情理的。而且我认为人们找到合适的费率很重要，价格竞争非常激烈，这也意味着我们的投保人可能会考虑货比三家。
So, if our insureds shop and we are talking to them and doing a policy, review. We have a team called our customer preservation team. We can walk through changes that might make sense for them, maybe build plans, maybe deductibles and as long as it's economically -- makes sense for both us and the insured, then we'll rewrite that, which kind of starts the clock ticking over. But I think that's an important piece.
因此，如果我们的受保人货比三家，我们会与他们沟通并进行保单审核。我们有一个叫做客户维系团队的团队。我们可以与他们一起探讨可能对他们有意义的变更，也许是制定计划，也许是调整免赔额，只要在经济上对我们和受保人都有意义，那么我们就会重新签单，这在某种程度上意味着重新开始计时。但我认为这是重要的一环。
There's a lot of noise in the policy life expectancy, not that it's not important. We want it to turn, and we think it's very important. But we look at our sort of internal measure of our household life expectancy that is showing a lot of improvement. And so we feel good about that. I think in the end, what I would draw you to is our growth. The fact that we grew 5.5 million PIFs compared to this time last year at an 18% growth rate.
保单生命周期中有很多干扰因素，但这并非不重要。我们希望它能好转，并且我们认为这非常重要。但是我们关注的是我们内部衡量家庭保单生命周期的指标，该指标显示出很大的改善。因此我们对此感觉良好。我认为最终，我希望大家关注的是我们的增长。与去年同期相比，我们的有效保单数量 (PIF) 增加了 550 万，增长率为 18%。
非常高的增长速度。
So, I feel really good about our growth. We're going to continue to concentrate on policy life expectancy, continue to concentrate on making sure that we are obsessive with our customer service, both on the CRM side and the claims side and have competitive prices, and that's the most important thing we can do. But yes, you're right, a lot of it is based on the shopping environment that we're in right now.
所以，我对我们的增长感到非常满意。我们将继续关注保单生命周期，继续专注于确保我们在客户关系管理 (CRM) 和理赔方面都提供极致的客户服务，并提供有竞争力的价格，这是我们能做的最重要的事情。但是，是的，你说得对，其中很大一部分原因在于我们目前所处的购物环境。
Rob Cox
That’s very helpful. Thank you.
非常感谢，这很有帮助。
Operator
接线员
The next question is from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自蒙特利尔银行的 Mike Zaremski。请提问。
Mike Zaremski
Hey good morning. My questions are on auto loss costs. In the letter, you point out that part of the frequency decreases are due to mix towards the more preferred customer base. I'm curious you don't call out severity being higher due to that mix shift as well. Do more preferred customers not have higher kind of, I thought, just more expensive cars and higher limits with more severity? Or am I not thinking about that correctly?
嘿，早上好。我的问题是关于汽车保险的赔付成本。在信中，你们指出索赔频率下降的部分原因是客户群向更优质的客户倾斜。我很好奇你们为什么没有提到这种客户群的转变也导致了索赔额度的上升。难道更优质的客户没有更高类型的，我原以为是更昂贵的汽车和更高的保额，从而导致更高的索赔额度吗？还是我的理解有误？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
No, I think you're seeing about that right in terms of severity and more coverage. I don't know necessarily expensive cars, but you have more coverage. What I would say, let's go back to frequency. What I would say with frequency is as we sort of decomp that, there's a little bit of noise and of course, it's a quarterly data.
不，我认为你对于索赔额度和更高覆盖范围的看法是正确的。我不确定是否一定是昂贵的汽车，但他们确实有更高的覆盖范围。我想说的是，让我们回到索赔频率。关于索赔频率，我想说的是，在我们对其进行分解时，会存在一些干扰因素，当然，这是季度数据。
But when we look at frequency, we would look at a couple of different things like those that would affect it. And that would be both what you talked about from a preferred mix, which would decrease frequency, but also a couple of things that increase frequency from our perspective, some growth, weather and our calendar year, we went to a Gregorian calendar, we equated to about 1 point of frequency. So, that would be more in line with our trailing 12 frequency decline of about 3.5% to 4%. So, we do see that a little bit differently.
但是当我们审视索赔频率时，我们会考虑几个不同的影响因素。这既包括你提到的优质客户组合（这会降低索赔频率），也包括一些从我们的角度来看会增加索赔频率的因素，例如一些增长、天气以及我们的日历年——我们改用了公历，这相当于大约 1 个百分点的索赔频率。所以，这与我们过去 12 个月约 3.5% 至 4% 的索赔频率下降趋势更为一致。因此，我们对此的看法略有不同。
Interesting, and this would be something to watch, our OBD data from our usage-based insurance, the dongle in the car showed for the first time since 2019. So, take away 2020 because a lot of people were driving. So in 2019, that vehicle miles traveled decreased, especially in strips that were over 100 miles. So, I think that's an interesting 1 data point for one quarter economically to look at.
有趣的是，这一点值得关注，我们基于使用行为的保险（UBI）中的车载诊断系统（OBD）数据显示，自 2019 年以来首次出现（剔除 2020 年，因为很多人都在开车）。所以在 2019 年，车辆行驶里程有所下降，尤其是在超过 100 英里的行程中。因此，我认为这是一个值得从经济角度关注的季度数据点。
From severity, I feel like we're right in line with competitors on severity. If you look at our collision, it looks higher based on some sub and salvage recoveries that were very high in Q1 of 2024. So if you take that out, it's about 2% gross recovery. So, I would say the collision is in line with our PD on the severity piece.
从索赔额度来看，我觉得我们与竞争对手的水平相当。如果你看我们的碰撞险，由于 2024 年第一季度一些代位追偿和残值回收的金额非常高，所以看起来会比较高。因此，如果剔除这些因素，毛回收率约为 2%。所以，我想说在索赔额度方面，碰撞险与我们的财产损害险 (PD) 是一致的。
Mike Zaremski
Okay, that’s helpful color. I guess just a follow-up on severity. You may have kind of answered it now. But if we think about the very long-term severity trend, I think it's low to mid-singles. And do you -- does Progressive kind of have a view of kind of new normal glide path is about the same over time? Or do you think it's a bit higher due to, I don't know, lawsuit inflation or just mix shift? Or just curious if you have any kind of long-term views on severity.
好的，这个解释很有帮助。我想再追问一下关于索赔额度的问题。您可能刚才已经回答了。但是如果我们考虑非常长期的索赔额度趋势，我认为是低到中个位数。那么，Progressive 是否认为未来的“新常态”下的发展路径会与此类似？还是你们认为由于，比如说，诉讼膨胀或者仅仅是客户群体的转变，这个数字会略高一些？只是好奇你们对索赔额度的长期看法。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
We talk about it a lot. And obviously, we react to the data as it comes. And there's been so much volatility over the last five years that we've really had to react to it, especially with inflation. I would have never predicted that would have happened. But again, we reacted to that.
我们经常讨论这个问题。显然，我们会根据出现的数据做出反应。过去五年中波动性很大，我们确实不得不对此做出反应，尤其是在通货膨胀方面。我从未预料到会发生这种情况。但是，我们还是做出了反应。
Tariffs will be another sort of unknown, but we'll react to that and react to that quickly should we need to. I think the one place where we've seen severity increase across the industry is more on the bodily injury side with just inflation, more attorney reps, higher medical bills, sort of the social inflation that we talk about a lot. And so we try to build that into our models as we think about the future as well.
关税将是另一个未知数，但如果需要，我们会对此做出反应，并迅速做出反应。我认为，整个行业索赔额度上升的一个领域更多的是在人身伤害方面，原因包括通货膨胀、更多的律师介入、更高的医疗费用，以及我们经常谈论的那种社会性通货膨胀。因此，我们在思考未来时，也会努力将这些因素纳入我们的模型中。
Mike Zaremski
Thank you.
谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
接线员
The next question comes from the line of Alex Scott with Barclays. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Alex Scott。请提问。
Alex Scott
Hi, good morning. I wanted to see if you could dig a little bit more into the potential impact from tariffs. Just to kind of frame for us how much that may or may not ultimately increase loss cost trend? And if you could particularly touch on how you're viewing auto parts and just repair costs in general?
嗨，早上好。我想了解一下你们是否能更深入地探讨一下关税的潜在影响。主要是想请你们为我们大致说明一下，这最终可能会或可能不会在多大程度上增加赔付成本趋势？以及你们能否特别谈谈对汽车零部件和总体维修成本的看法？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, absolutely. This will probably be a longer answer to the question, but I wanted to give you an insight of kind of how we're looking at the complexity of tariffs at such a granular level. And so stick with me.
是的，当然。这个问题的答案可能会比较长，但我想让你们了解一下我们是如何在如此精细的层面上看待关税的复杂性的。所以请耐心听我说。
So, I talked in February about tariffs are inflationary, and they're one-sided to loss costs. And we care deeply about trying to understand the impact on our book of business.
我在二月份谈到过，关税具有通胀效应，并且单方面影响赔付成本。我们非常重视理解其对我们业务组合的影响。
Oddly, last Monday, I spent an hour with our national auto pricing manager, we went over the inputs and the outputs to the tariffs and had a great conversation. The work is extremely well done and then Tuesday, the White House, that it would soften some of the tariffs.
说来也巧，上周一，我花了一个小时与我们的全国汽车定价经理讨论，我们仔细研究了关税的输入和输出因素，并进行了深入的交流。这项工作做得非常出色，然后到了周二，白宫方面表示将放宽部分关税。
So, it changed things in terms of stacking the steel and aluminum with the imported vehicles as well as some rebates on foreign parts that are assembled in the U.S. So, that immediately changed some of the dynamics with what we were working on.
因此，在将钢铁和铝材与进口汽车叠加征税方面，以及对在美国组装的外国零部件给予一些退税方面，情况发生了变化。所以，这立即改变了我们正在处理的一些动态因素。
So, we take a bunch of raw data. So think of probability of occurrence, which is very high at this juncture, start date, market lag, time to full effect in the tariff rate. And then we take some components.
所以，我们采用大量原始数据。比如发生的概率（目前这个概率非常高）、起始日期、市场滞后性、关税税率完全生效的时间。然后我们再考虑一些组成部分。
So, clearly, USMCA compliance is a big one, price umbrella, part sourcing, per coverage cost e-com. So, that is just a handful of some of them of the inputs that we put into our model.
所以，很明显，USMCA（美墨加协定）合规性是一个重要因素，还有价格保护伞、零部件采购、单位保额成本电子商务等等。这些只是我们模型中输入因素的一小部分。
Then we ran our entire fleet through the USMCA compliance to understand each vehicle and what we think the cost could come to. So, let me walk you through a couple of examples. I won't give you the exact car, but Car A basically assembled outside the U.S., 1% U.S. Canada content. The rest is German and from Poland and a couple of other countries. So it's not USMCA compliant. So quick math on that is that 99% of that value should be tariffed. So we know that for that car.
然后，我们将整个车队的数据都进行了 USMCA 合规性分析，以了解每辆车的情况以及我们认为成本可能会达到多少。让我给你们举几个例子。我不会说出具体的车型，但假设 A 车基本在美国境外组装，美国和加拿大的零部件含量为 1%。其余零部件来自德国、波兰和其他几个国家。所以它不符合 USMCA 的规定。简单计算一下，这意味着该车 99% 的价值都应该被征收关税。所以我们了解了这辆车的情况。
Vehicle B, a little bit different, assembled in the United States, 50% U.S.-Canadian content, 25% Mexican content. So it is USMCA compliant. So as of last Monday, it would have been 25% eligible to be tariffed. As of Tuesday, that first 15% was eligible for the rebate. So, the effective tariff rate is 10%. So that's how surgical we're getting with our models.
B 车则略有不同，它在美国组装，美国和加拿大的零部件含量为 50%，墨西哥的零部件含量为 25%。所以它符合 USMCA 的规定。因此，截至上周一，其价值的 25% 符合征收关税的条件。而到了周二，最初的 15% 有资格获得退税。所以，实际的关税税率是 10%。这就是我们模型分析的精细程度。
And it's a moving target, but we have to be nimble. And I think that the big thing here is that the key is we've got to recognize as soon as possible when we see the data and take action accordingly. I do have to take a moment to shout out a couple of people. We have many, many people working on this, but couple of people from our pricing team that have done an incredible job, Brad and Bruce and [indiscernible] and Nick from our Economics team, they've been working feverishly as things evolve.
这是一个不断变化的目标，但我们必须保持敏捷。我认为这里的关键在于，一旦我们看到数据，就必须尽快识别并采取相应的行动。我确实需要花点时间表扬几位同事。我们有很多人在做这项工作，但我们定价团队的几位同事，Brad、Bruce、[听不清的人名] 以及我们经济团队的 Nick，他们做得非常出色，随着情况的变化而夜以继日地工作。
And so we will be ready for whatever comes our way, but we have put a lot of thought and a lot of modeling into this and a lot of scenario planning. So, I believe we are as prepared as anyone.
因此，无论未来发生什么，我们都做好了准备，我们对此进行了大量的思考和建模，以及大量的情景规划。所以我相信我们和任何人一样准备充分。
Alex Scott
That’s really helpful. Thank you. Next one I had is on disruption in certain states around homeowners markets and how it may benefit or detract from PIP growth? And I was hoping maybe you could talk about Florida and just sort of the healing process in homeowners and the impact of that happening on PIP there and sort of the opposite in California where it looks like things may get more difficult?
这真的很有帮助。谢谢你。我的下一个问题是关于某些州的房屋保险市场的混乱情况，以及这可能如何促进或阻碍个人伤害防护保险 (PIP) 的增长？我希望你能谈谈佛罗里达州的情况，以及房屋保险市场正在经历的“疗伤”过程，以及这对当地 PIP 的影响；另外，加利福尼亚州的情况似乎正好相反，那里的情况可能会变得更加困难？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes. So, I gave you a little bit of the sort of five-point plan for the blueprint for the future. We feel really good about where we're at, especially on the combined ratio side, we were sub-90 in Q1 in property, growing a lot in renters. And obviously, we're taking the time to grow because we want to do this in the right way.
是的。所以我给你简单介绍了一下未来蓝图的五点计划。我们对目前的状况感觉非常好，尤其是在综合成本率方面，第一季度我们在财产险方面的综合成本率低于 90%，租房者保险业务增长迅速。显然，我们正在花时间来实现增长，因为我们希望以正确的方式来做这件事。
And John and his team have done a fabulous job with that. Florida, we're still in the midst of non-renewing the 115,000 policies that we talked about a few years ago. It's been a little bit more time-consuming just because of moratoriums.
John 和他的团队在这方面做得非常出色。在佛罗里达州，我们仍在处理几年前提到的 11.5 万份保单的不续保事宜。由于一些暂停措施，这花费了更多的时间。
But we will send out our last notifications by this May. So, we're feeling we're in a much better position in Florida. We have very little market share in California, and so that will be a place where we'll tip toe in.
但是我们会在今年五月之前发出最后一批通知。所以，我们觉得我们在佛罗里达州的处境要好得多。我们在加利福尼亚州的市场份额很小，所以我们会非常谨慎地进入那个市场。
But I would say that where we stand today with more bundling with cost sharing, with exiting our DP3 program with our agent incentives, we feel like we are in a much different position and we're going to be able to open up the growth machine in areas where we think it's beneficial and where we get those bundled.
但我想说，鉴于我们目前通过更多的捆绑销售、成本分摊、退出我们的 DP3 项目以及我们的代理商激励措施所处的位置，我们觉得我们处于一个截然不同的境地，我们将能够在我们认为有利可图并且能够实现捆绑销售的领域开启增长引擎。
Alex Scott
Got it. Thank you.
明白了。谢谢你。
Operator
接线员
The next question is from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan。请提问。
Elyse Greenspan
Thanks. Good morning. My first question, I guess, is just a hypothetical based on tariffs. If there's a state that's operating in a mid- to high 80s combined ratio -- and like we're assuming right tariffs have a mid-single-digit impact on severity. All else equal, how would you guys look to respond in that state, would you -- or could you get rate approval given, right, that's a pretty high level of profitability?
谢谢。早上好。我的第一个问题，我想，只是一个基于关税的假设性问题。如果某个州的综合成本率在 85% 到 89% 之间——而且我们假设关税对赔付强度的影响是中个位数。在其他条件相同的情况下，你们会如何应对这个州的情况，你们会——或者你们能否获得费率批准，考虑到，对吧，这是一个相当高的盈利水平？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
It's a great question, Elyse. Here, I think one of the things that I did mention is we also have reached out to a couple of insurers departments because I think because our models are so granular and so refined. We want to make sure that they understand and can contemplate that for each state. Here's what I would say is we make a lot of decisions based on combined ratio, but is that state growing? Is it not growing? How could you know?
这是个好问题，Elyse。我想我之前提到的一点是，我们也已经联系了几家保险部门，因为我认为我们的模型非常精细和完善。我们希望确保他们能够理解并为每个州考虑到这一点。我想说的是，我们很多决策是基于综合成本率做出的，但是那个州在增长吗？它没有增长吗？你怎么知道呢？
So to me, if there's a state in the mid-80s and there's not growth, I would say that we could pressure test that to grow a little bit. But obviously, we have tariffs in the back of our mind, and we know that is something we'll have to react to. And we'll have to react to it differently in different states depending on where that combined ratio falls.
所以对我来说，如果一个州的综合成本率在 85% 左右并且没有增长，我会说我们可以对其进行压力测试以实现少量增长。但显然，我们心里装着关税的问题，我们知道这是我们必须做出反应的事情。而且我们将不得不根据不同州综合成本率的具体情况做出不同的反应。
汽车保险的属性决定了不能快速抢占市场份额，快不起来。
Elyse Greenspan
Thanks. And then my second question, I was just interested if you could just provide kind of just some color on just the monthly cadence of your retention as you guys have been putting on new business and the industry has obviously been getting more competitive with the [indiscernible] to grow as well. Any color just as you think about monthly retention levels that you can provide?
谢谢。然后我的第二个问题，我只是想知道你们能否提供一些关于你们每月客户保留率节奏方面的信息，因为你们一直在拓展新业务，而且随着[听不清]的增长，行业竞争也明显加剧。在你们考虑每月客户保留率水平时，能否提供一些相关信息？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, I mean I talked a little bit about that before. We publicly talk about trailing three and trailing 12. I never like to see retention decline but I think with some of the things we're doing, it's going to decline.
是的，我之前稍微谈到过这个问题。我们公开讨论的是过去三个月和过去十二个月的客户保留率。我从不喜欢看到客户保留率下降，但我认为随着我们正在做的一些事情，它将会下降。
So, just opening it up to our Sams and making sure that some of our customers where we do policy reviews, we write -- those things are going to have negative implication for the PLE actual number itself but not negative implications for our PIF growth. And I think that's what we have to kind of balance out.
所以，仅仅是向我们的战略客户经理 (Sams) 开放，并确保我们为一些客户进行保单审查，我们承保——这些事情会对保单有效期限 (PLE) 的实际数字本身产生负面影响，但不会对我们的有效保单 (PIF) 增长产生负面影响。我认为这就是我们需要平衡的地方。
很好的回答。
And like I said, we do have some data at the household level and that continues to improve. Again, I want to see that trailing three, for sure, move the other direction. So we'll continue to do what we can. But it's a really big shopping environment right now. I think that's good for customers and having those competitive prices are great for competition, and it's a fun place to be in.
就像我说的，我们确实有一些家庭层面的数据，而且这些数据在持续改善。再说一次，我当然希望看到过去三个月的客户保留率向另一个方向发展。所以我们会继续尽我们所能。但现在确实是一个非常大的比价购物环境。我认为这对客户来说是好事，拥有那些有竞争力的价格对竞争来说也很棒，这是一个令人兴奋的领域。
Elyse Greenspan
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator
接线员
The next question is from the line of Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自奥本海默的 Michael Phillips。请提问。
Michael Phillips
Thanks. Good morning. I guess at the risk of the tariff topic being too much, one more on the phone. I guess, Tricia, I might kind of hear how you think about the balancing of maintaining stability in rates for customers versus reacting fast to tariffs.
谢谢。早上好。我想，冒着关税这个话题谈得太多的风险，再问一个关于这个的问题。我想，Tricia，我想听听您是如何考虑在为客户维持费率稳定与快速应对关税之间取得平衡的。
And when I hear you say earlier today and throughout this conversation continue in the growth engine and grow as fast as we can, it makes it seem like maybe you're more inclined to keep the rates stable and let there be a margin impact versus reacting and taking rate increases?
当我听到您今天早些时候以及在整个谈话中都说要继续保持增长引擎并尽可能快地增长时，这似乎表明您可能更倾向于保持费率稳定，并允许利润率受到影响，而不是做出反应并提高费率？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, it's a good question because all those things comes into play so when I think what I think about stability of rates, I think about just those small bites of the apple. Like I said, we took rates down in about a dozen states, rates up in about a dozen states, but kind of flat from the perspective of points. So, it depends on each state and if we think we can grow.
是的，这是个好问题，因为所有这些因素都会发挥作用，所以当我想我如何看待费率的稳定性时，我想到的是那些小幅度的调整。就像我说的，我们在大约十二个州降低了费率，在另外大约十二个州提高了费率，但从百分点的角度来看，基本持平。所以，这取决于每个州的情况以及我们是否认为我们能够实现增长。
And we look at that across the country and each one of our product managers has the mandate to grow as fast as we can at or below 96%. We obviously -- that tariffs are always going to be front and center because I don't want to have to increase rates like we had to a few years ago based on the inflationary factors that came into play with used car prices and parts. So, it's a balance.
我们在全国范围内审视这个问题，我们的每一位产品经理都有任务，要在综合成本率达到或低于 96% 的情况下尽可能快地增长。我们显然——关税问题将永远是重中之重，因为我不想像几年前那样，由于二手车价格和零部件相关的通胀因素而不得不提高费率。所以，这是一种平衡。
We work on this literally every day to try to figure out the right way to grow and to capture the market share while there's this competitive rate. We obviously -- we'd like to be able to have those margins and still grow. So, it's not balancing and sort of with stability, tariffs, growth, and combined ratio, it's just a math equation that we constantly work on a state level, product level.
我们几乎每天都在努力解决这个问题，试图找到在存在这种竞争性费率的情况下实现增长并占据市场份额的正确方法。我们显然——我们希望能够既保持这些利润率又能实现增长。所以，这不是在稳定性、关税、增长和综合成本率之间进行权衡和取舍，这只是一个我们不断在州一级、产品一级进行的数学方程式计算。
Michael Phillips
Okay. Thank you. Second question. In the agency channel, you've talked about maybe for a little bit, kind of a shift in 12 months to six-month policies. And I wonder, is that just a result of the increased shopping and different customer base, maybe Sams versus the Robinsons? Or is that something intentional you're trying to push through?
好的。谢谢你。第二个问题。在代理渠道，您之前提到过，可能会有一段时间，从 12 个月的保单转向 6 个月的保单。我想知道，这仅仅是由于购物行为增加和客户群不同（也许是 Sams 相对于 Robinsons）的结果吗？还是这是你们有意推动的事情？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
We do that for our preferred agents that -- our platinum agents that have our property book. because most people have -- the property is a 12-month policy. So, we have that. It's more for convenience for the agents that we work with, the platinum agents that we work with in order to bundle auto and home.
我们为我们的首选代理商——即拥有我们财产险业务的白金代理商——提供这种服务。因为大多数人的财产险都是 12 个月的保单。所以，我们有这种做法。这更多是为了方便与我们合作的代理商，即与我们合作的白金代理商，以便他们捆绑销售汽车和房屋保险。
Michael Phillips
Okay. Thank you.
好的。谢谢你。
Operator
接线员
The next question is from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。请提问。
Jimmy Bhullar
Hey good morning. So, Tricia, just -- it seems like your comments -- prepared remarks and answers to questions have been fairly optimistic on PIF growth but if we think about the fact that most of your competitors had been raising prices a lot and a lot more than you were raising prices, they were limiting marketing. And now at least all the public guys are back in sort of growth mode. Why is it not reasonable to assume that you would see a slowdown in PIF growth, even if it remains strong, maybe not as strong as it has been?
嘿，早上好。所以，Tricia，只是——似乎您的评论——准备好的发言稿和对问题的回答对有效保单 (PIF) 增长都相当乐观，但如果我们考虑到这样一个事实，即您的大多数竞争对手一直在大幅提高价格，而且提价幅度比您大得多，他们同时还在限制营销。而现在，至少所有上市公司都回到了某种增长模式。为什么我们没有理由假设您会看到 PIF 增长放缓，即使它仍然强劲，但可能不如以前那么强劲？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Well, I think what you will see is a much more difficult comparison because if you look at the last three quarters of 2024, we grew a massive amount. That said, we are in a really good position. And like we talked about with our acquisition machine, we're going to continue that. You saw what we spent in the first quarter.
嗯，我认为您将会看到的是一个更加困难的比较，因为如果您看看 2024 年的后三个季度，我们的增长量非常大。话虽如此，我们处于非常有利的位置。就像我们谈到的我们的客户获取机制一样，我们将继续下去。您看到了我们在第一季度的支出。
We're going to continue to spend as long as its efficiency in our cost for sales under our target acquisition cost. We have a machine that works really well in both channels. And so we're going to push the envelope as much as we can to grow. So I am bullish, and I'm very optimistic. And if I had to put a buck down on a horse, it'd be Progressive.
只要我们的销售成本效率低于我们的目标客户获取成本，我们就会继续投入。我们有一个在两个渠道都运作良好的机制。因此，我们将尽最大努力推动增长。所以我持乐观态度，而且非常乐观。如果我必须在一匹马上押注，那一定是 Progressive。
Jimmy Bhullar
And then just -- obviously, there's a lot of focus with your firm on auto, both personal and commercial. Can you talk about your long-term aspirations and in the homeowners business and then in commercial lines outside of auto, just the trends in those businesses and where you see the best growth opportunity?
然后——显然，贵公司非常关注汽车保险，包括个人和商业车险。您能谈谈您在房屋所有者保险业务以及汽车保险以外的商业险种方面的长期愿景吗？以及这些业务的趋势和您认为最佳的增长机会在哪里？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes. So, I mean I think homeowners, we've talked about a lot in terms of our blueprint, and we feel like we're in a much better position. And we know people are stickier when they bundle their auto and home. So, we're going to continue with that.
是的。我的意思是，关于房屋所有者保险，我们已经根据我们的蓝图谈了很多，我们觉得我们现在处于更有利的位置。我们知道，当人们捆绑购买汽车和房屋保险时，他们的客户粘性会更高。所以，我们将继续这样做。
The great thing about homeowners is that about half our business is on progressive paper on AFI paper, and half of our business, we work on the direct side with unaffiliated partners. And so I think that is a nice balance to be able to have some on our paper and some not.
房屋所有者保险的一大优点是，我们大约一半的业务是通过 Progressive 保单（AFI 保单）承保的，另一半业务则是我们通过直销渠道与非附属合作伙伴合作。因此，我认为这是一种很好的平衡，一部分业务由我们自己承保，一部分则不是。
Our auto and renters, bundle percentage is very high, over 75%. And those, we call -- future Robinsons will hopefully be in our book of business. They're much more likely get Progressive Home. And we continue to add partners in what we call our Progressive Advantage agencies.
我们的汽车和租房者保险的捆绑销售比例非常高，超过 75%。而那些我们称之为——未来的“鲁滨逊”客户有望成为我们业务的一部分。他们更有可能购买 Progressive 的房屋保险。我们将继续在我们所谓的 Progressive Advantage 代理机构中增加合作伙伴。
So, our long-term is that we want to clearly make money in property, make sure we have more stability and continue to understand and deepen our level of segmentation like we do on the private passenger auto side. So, I feel like we're turning a corner there, for sure.
所以，我们的长期目标是，我们希望在财产险领域明确盈利，确保我们有更高的稳定性，并继续理解和深化我们的细分水平，就像我们在个人乘用车保险方面所做的那样。所以，我确实觉得我们在这方面正在迎来转机。
On the commercial auto side, what I love about our whole Commercial Lines organization is that it's very diverse in terms of our business marketing tier targets. And so I think we have a lot of opportunities. So, we see, economically, things change in, as an example, for higher trucking for higher specialty, so we can then grow in our business auto Contractor segment. We have a robust transportation network business and we now have our BoP, our business owner's policy in 46 states.
在商业车险方面，我喜欢我们整个商业险种组织的一点是，它在我们的业务营销层级目标方面非常多样化。因此，我认为我们有很多机会。所以，我们看到，从经济角度来看，情况在发生变化，例如，对于更高端的货运和更专业的领域，这样我们就可以在我们的商业车险承包商细分市场中实现增长。我们拥有强大的交通运输网络业务，现在我们的商业综合保险 (BoP)，即企业主保单，已在 46 个州推出。
So, we have a lot of different levers to grow in Commercial Lines, and that's really actually a very exciting part of the whole Progressive portfolio. In fact, years ago, when my team and I sat down and thought about our growth prospects and our strategy, a lot of the focus, one, to focus was grow the heck out of private passenger auto, let's gain market share, let's grow the heck out of commercial auto, even though we've been number one for a while and let's figure out homeowners. But then -- and that was kind of Horizon 1.
所以，我们在商业险种领域有很多不同的增长杠杆，这实际上是整个 Progressive 产品组合中一个非常令人兴奋的部分。事实上，几年前，当我和我的团队坐下来思考我们的增长前景和战略时，很多重点之一就是，要大力发展个人乘用车保险，让我们获得市场份额，让我们大力发展商业车险，即使我们已经有一段时间是市场第一了，然后让我们搞定房屋所有者保险。但后来——那算是第一阶段。
最后一步有基因上的限制。
In Horizon 2, we said what are some businesses that we can evolve with and most of them sell on the commercial line side. So, think of our fleet business as an example. We used to ensure 10 or fewer power units, we went up to 40. We bought Protective to kind of fill out that portfolio. We created BoP. We have what we call BusinessQuote Explorer, which is similar to our HomeQuote Explorer, where we sell our products and the products of others to kind of have that small business owner feel really covered.
在第二阶段，我们思考了哪些业务可以与我们共同发展，其中大部分是在商业险种方面销售的。所以，以我们的车队业务为例。我们过去只承保 10 个或更少的动力单元，后来增加到 40 个。我们收购了 Protective 来充实这个产品组合。我们创建了商业综合保险 (BoP)。我们有一个叫做 BusinessQuote Explorer 的东西，类似于我们的 HomeQuote Explorer，我们通过它销售我们自己的产品和其他公司的产品，从而让小企业主感到真正获得了保障。
So, I think the runway in Commercial Lines is extraordinary, and Karen and her team are doing a great job figuring out exactly what levers to pull to make sure that we grow.
所以，我认为商业险种的增长空间非常巨大，Karen 和她的团队在准确判断应该拉动哪些杠杆以确保我们实现增长方面做得非常出色。
And I wrote in my letter, if you look at the combined ratio and in the year ending the year 2024 in the commercial auto business, it's over 111% combined ratio where ours is sub-90s. So, people are going to have to stay great, and it may take longer because those are 12-month policies and people are going to shop and they're going to find a good rate and great coverage and great service in our commercial lines organization.
我在我的信中写道，如果你看一下商业车险业务在截至 2024 年的年度综合成本率，它超过了 111%，而我们的则低于 90%。所以，其他公司将不得不保持出色，而且这可能需要更长的时间，因为那些是 12 个月的保单，人们会货比三家，他们会在我们的商业险种组织中找到优惠的费率、优质的保障和卓越的服务。
Patrick Callahan
帕特里克·卡拉汉
I could add a bit to that answer and saying, you asked about our homeowner appetite. We think of it as our personal lines appetite. Over -- around half of the personalized marketplace bundle home and auto, and our entry into home was to continue to grow in auto.
我可以补充一点，您问到我们对房屋所有者保险的兴趣。我们认为这是我们对个人险种的兴趣。超过——大约一半的个性化市场将房屋和汽车保险捆绑销售，我们进入房屋保险领域是为了继续在汽车保险领域实现增长。
So, today, we have low single-digit market share of the Robinsons segment, and that is around half of the entire marketplace. So our appetite in home is focused on personalized households, which gives us a lot more runway in the personalized space.
所以，今天，我们在“鲁滨逊”细分市场的市场份额只有个位数，而这大约占整个市场的一半。因此，我们在房屋保险领域的兴趣集中在个性化家庭，这为我们在个性化领域提供了更大的发展空间。
To Tricia's point, on the commercial side, BoP is a marketplace that is several times the size of our commercial auto marketplace. We are number one in commercial auto by a large factor. And in BoP, we could have a runway that is very significant beyond commercial auto. So both of those entries, we think, create a runway for us for growth for decades.
关于 Tricia 的观点，在商业方面，商业综合保险 (BoP) 的市场规模是我们商业车险市场的好几倍。我们在商业车险领域以巨大的优势位居第一。而在商业综合保险领域，我们可能拥有远超商业车险的巨大发展空间。因此，我们认为这两个领域的进入为我们未来几十年的增长创造了跑道。
这个回答比CEO的更好，更清晰。
Jimmy Bhullar
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator
接线员
The next question is from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。请提问。
David Motemaden
Thanks. Good morning. I had a question -- just if you could help me think through the improvement in renewal applications growth that's come at the same time that we've seen a decline and the policy life expect to see on a trailing three and trailing 12-month basis.
谢谢。早上好。我有一个问题——您能否帮我理解一下续保申请增长的改善，与此同时，我们看到过去三个月和过去十二个月的保单预期寿命有所下降。
Is that just the mix impact that you were talking about earlier, Tricia? Where like we're seeing the PLEs come down, but then overall, the retention is still okay given that, call it, roughly 20% growth in renewal apps?
这仅仅是您之前提到的混合因素影响吗，Tricia？比如我们看到保单预期寿命 (PLE) 下降，但考虑到续保申请大约 20% 的增长，总体留存率仍然可以接受？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, I think that's part of it, and I think just the stability of the rates kind of leveling out. I think like I did say before we had the pressure on renewals just because of shopping, but the renewals from not having to take big increases, I think, has been helpful as well, do you want to add anything, Pat, to that?
是的，我认为这是一部分原因，而且我认为费率的稳定性正在趋于平稳。我想就像我之前说过的，仅仅因为客户货比三家，我们就面临续保压力，但我认为，不必大幅提高费率带来的续保也很有帮助，Pat，你有什么要补充的吗？
Patrick Callahan
帕特里克·卡拉汉
Yes. One thing I'd add is the renewals are driven by what happened six months ago, and we opened up pretty aggressively six months ago or nine months ago. So, renewal app growth rate will be driven by new apps that show up in that period. And PLE is a forward-looking projection. So, we look at that to predict how long policies on the books today will retain. So, that moves differently than the units that you see within our rental--.
是的。我想补充一点，续保是由六个月前发生的情况驱动的，而我们在六个月或九个月前相当积极地开放了业务。因此，续保申请的增长率将由该时期出现的新申请驱动。而保单预期寿命 (PLE) 是一个前瞻性的预测。所以，我们用它来预测现有保单的留存时间。因此，它的变动与您在我们租赁业务中看到的单位不同——。
David Motemaden
Got it. Okay. That’s helpful. And then maybe just a question on the competitive environment. So, Tricia, I think you mentioned that competitors are in a good spot as well, increasing advertising spend.
明白了。好的。这很有帮助。然后可能还有一个关于竞争环境的问题。所以，Tricia，我想您提到竞争对手也处于有利地位，正在增加广告支出。
I guess my question is are we close to a point where the market gets more competitive like we saw back in 2018 when I think that was the last time you guys and some of your peers started putting through price cuts?
我想我的问题是，我们是否接近市场竞争变得更加激烈的地步，就像我们在 2018 年看到的那样，我记得那是你们和你们的一些同行上一次开始降价的时候？
Or is there enough uncertainty out there where you think that, that won't be the case? I'm just sort of interested in terms of how you're thinking about the competitive environment right now?
还是说市场存在足够的不确定性，您认为情况不会如此？我只是想知道您目前是如何看待竞争环境的？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, there's still a lot of ambient shopping. So, a lot of shopping is taking place, which is why we want to take advantage of our ability to spend on advertising and have that acquisition machine work. It is more competitive. We took rate well in advance of the competition and now the majority of the competitors, I think, are in a good position.
是的，仍然有很多潜在的购物行为。所以，大量的购物正在发生，这就是为什么我们想利用我们在广告上投入的能力，并让那个客户获取机制发挥作用。竞争确实更加激烈了。我们远早于竞争对手就调整了费率，现在我认为大多数竞争对手都处于有利地位。
So, I think that we're going to continue to push on advertising. We're going to continue to push our expenses down. And that's a really big part of competitive prices, and that's another place that can help us fuel growth. In fact, we have taken 0.5 point off of our non-acquisition expense ratio in LAE every year for the past 17 years.
所以，我认为我们将继续加大广告投入。我们将继续降低我们的费用。这是有竞争力的价格的一个非常重要的组成部分，也是另一个可以帮助我们推动增长的地方。事实上，在过去的 17 年里，我们每年都将理赔费用 (LAE) 中的非客户获取费用率降低了 0.5 个百分点。
So, as we think about future growth, David, we are going to -- and in fact, we're in the midst of figuring out our next -- or designing our next three-year strategy. Expense management expense discipline is going to be a big part of it because I think that will help continue to fuel our growth as well as some of the investments we've made in technology to become a more efficient organization.
所以，当我们考虑未来的增长时，David，我们将——事实上，我们正在制定我们的下一个——或者说设计我们未来三年的战略。费用管理和费用纪律将是其中的重要组成部分，因为我认为这将有助于继续推动我们的增长，我们为提高组织效率而在技术方面进行的一些投资也将如此。
So, I feel like it is really competitive. Like I said, that's kind of where the fun begins. And we're going to do our best to continue to push on this growth.
所以，我觉得竞争确实非常激烈。就像我说的，这才是乐趣开始的地方。我们将尽最大努力继续推动这种增长。
David Motemaden
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Thanks.
谢谢。
Operator
接线员
The next question is from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。请提问。
Josh Shanker
乔希·尚克
Yes, thank you for taking my question. I noticed your comment that you spent more on advertising in 1Q 2025 than you did in 4Q 2024. Always there's a nice surge in 1Q seasonally, it seems for a procurement of customers. But we only see the net numbers and retention is getting worse. Is the efficacy of the spend the same as it was in 2024 or are you seeing diminishing returns even if they're above your targets right now for what you need to acquire new customers?
是的，谢谢你回答我的问题。我注意到您提到贵公司在 2025 年第一季度的广告支出高于 2024 年第四季度。季节性来看，第一季度似乎总是客户获取的高峰期。但我们只看到了净数据，而客户保留率正在恶化。当前的广告支出效果与 2024 年相同，还是即使目前高于获取新客户的目标，您也看到了回报递减的现象？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes. Typically, the first quarter of any year is a high shopping season. So, we want to make sure we leverage that. We don't share our target acquisition cost or our cost per sale, but it continues to be efficient. Clearly, with competitors coming in, it will get a little bit tougher, but we still feel like we're an efficient machine.
是的。通常，任何年份的第一季度都是购物旺季。所以，我们希望确保充分利用这一点。我们不透露我们的目标客户获取成本或每次销售成本，但它仍然是高效的。显然，随着竞争对手的加入，情况会变得更艰难一些，但我们仍然认为我们是一个高效的机器。
Josh Shanker
乔希·尚克
Do you expect to spend about as much in the remainder of the year on media and advertising as you did in the last 12 months of 2024?
您预计今年剩余时间在媒体和广告上的支出会与 2024 年最后 12 个月大致相当吗？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
We will spend as long as we believe we can grow and do it at efficient cost. And as you've seen over the years, that's a lever that we can ebb and flow depending on where we're at from a profitability perspective. But as you can see, sitting at 86% combined ratio for the first quarter, we're sitting in a really great position to be able to continue to spend to acquire more customers.
只要我们相信能够实现增长并且成本可控，我们就会继续投入。正如您多年来所看到的，这是一个我们可以根据盈利能力状况进行调整的杠杆。但是正如您所看到的，第一季度的综合成本率为 86%，我们处于一个非常有利的位置，能够继续投入以获取更多客户。
Josh Shanker
乔希·尚克
And if I can sneak one more in. We do talk about how retention has changed, and we don't really know what absolute retention is. I feel like 2025 feels a lot like 2019, in many ways, how does the retention right now compared to past periods when industry had adequate pricing and there was a great deal of competitiveness in the market and willingness to accept new business from competitors. Are we at the same level we were at that time? Or are you better now than you were five years ago?
如果我能再问一个问题。我们确实讨论了客户保留率的变化，但我们并不真正知道绝对的客户保留率是多少。我觉得 2025 年在很多方面感觉很像 2019 年，与过去行业定价充足、市场竞争激烈且愿意接受来自竞争对手的新业务的时期相比，现在的客户保留率如何？我们是否处于与当时相同的水平？或者说，你们现在比五年前做得更好吗？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Well, some of our mix has changed with more of a preferred mix. And so when we look at retention, we look at it very granularly in terms of our mix of business. I would say we're probably -- I don't have the data in front of me, probably about even.
嗯，我们的一些业务组合发生了变化，优质客户的比例更高了。因此，当我们审视客户保留率时，我们会根据我们的业务组合进行非常细致的分析。我想说我们可能——我手头没有数据，可能差不多持平。
Josh Shanker
乔希·尚克
Okay. Thanks very much for the answers.
好的。非常感谢您的回答。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Thanks Josh.
谢谢，乔希。
Operator
接线员
The next question is from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。请提问。
Meyer Shields
迈耶·希尔兹
Great. Thank you so much and good morning. Tricia, you talked about spending more on advertising. And clearly, it's paying off. When you have more competitors looking to grow, does the cost per unit of advertising go up? Or is it just a matter of more advertising overall?
太好了。非常感谢，早上好。Tricia，您谈到要增加广告支出。而且很明显，这正在奏效。当有更多竞争对手寻求增长时，单位广告成本会上升吗？还是仅仅是整体广告量增加的问题？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Well, there's more people in the system say, on digital auctions, you're going to have more competitiveness. So, we just have to be where we think we should be to get new customers and not overpay for those. And so from that bidding perspective, yes, it gets -- there's a little bit more pressure on it when competitors are in. But we know that data very well, and we are able to bid on and efficiently spend to get new customers.
嗯，比如说，在数字拍卖中，系统中有更多的人，竞争就会更激烈。所以，我们必须在我们认为应该在的地方获取新客户，并且不为他们支付过高的费用。因此，从竞价的角度来看，是的，当竞争对手加入时，压力会更大一些。但我们非常了解这些数据，并且能够有效地出价和支出以获取新客户。
Meyer Shields
迈耶·希尔兹
Okay, that’s helpful. Second question, I think I'm just missing a step like you've talked about this still being a lot of shopping. Clearly, competitive rate increases are slowing down. Why do you think there is? I don't know if it's as much shopping as last year? Or in the absence of significant rate increases, what's promoting more shopping behavior?
好的，这很有帮助。第二个问题，我想我可能漏掉了一个环节，比如您谈到仍然有很多购物行为。显然，有竞争力的费率上涨正在放缓。您认为原因是什么？我不确定购物量是否和去年一样多？或者在没有大幅度费率上涨的情况下，是什么在促进更多的购物行为？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
I think it's just easier to shop. And I think with all the other inflationary items out there, people are looking to figure out a way to save money. So, whether it's at eggs in the grocery store or insurance. And so people -- because it is easy and you can easily shop and if the price is right switch, I think customers are just trying to figure out how to balance their own budgets.
我认为只是购物变得更容易了。而且我认为，在所有其他通胀项目的影响下，人们都在想办法省钱。所以，无论是在杂货店买鸡蛋还是买保险。因此，人们——因为这很容易，你可以轻松购物，如果价格合适就转换，我认为客户只是在努力平衡自己的预算。
Meyer Shields
迈耶·希尔兹
Great. Thank you so much.
太好了。非常感谢。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator
接线员
The next question is from the line of Andrew Andersen with Jefferies. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Andrew Andersen。请提问。
Andrew Andersen
安德鲁·安徒生
Hey, good morning. Looking within the Property segment, I think you've made a note that like 30% of that business is going direct now. Can you maybe just talk about the customer appetite to go through that direct channel? I'm not sure if that was driven by a change in business mix, but it seems that that's up about 5 points year-over-year.
嘿，早上好。看一下财产险部门，我注意到您提到现在大约 30% 的业务是直接销售的。您能谈谈客户对通过直接渠道购买的意愿吗？我不确定这是否是由业务组合的变化驱动的，但这个比例似乎同比增长了大约 5 个百分点。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
We made that decision a long time ago. So, we purchased American Strategic insurance now Progressive Home, really get access to those bundled Robinsons in the independent agent channel. And that has worked really well, and we have our platinum agents and other agents that are able to sell those bundles. And that's worked well. But we knew even at that time, way back when that we wanted our customers to have a choice.
我们很久以前就做了这个决定。所以，我们收购了 American Strategic Insurance（现在是 Progressive Home），真正接触到独立代理渠道中的那些捆绑式“鲁滨逊”客户。这非常有效，我们有白金代理和其他能够销售这些捆绑产品的代理。效果很好。但我们当时就知道，很久以前就知道，我们希望我们的客户有选择。
So, if our appetite wasn't open in a certain geography, could we get our customers to still have the auto with us and another person's home. So, we have had what we call our Progressive Advantage Agency through HomeQuote Explorer, to have our product plus the product of unaffiliated partners.
所以，如果我们对某个地区的业务不开放，我们能否让我们的客户仍然选择我们的汽车保险，而选择其他公司的房屋保险。因此，我们通过 HomeQuote Explorer 设立了所谓的 Progressive Advantage Agency，提供我们自己的产品以及非附属合作伙伴的产品。
So, we feel great about growth there because, again, we get a commission on those policies and those customers retain longer. So we have about half of our Robinsons are with Progressive and half are with our partner carriers, and we feel really good about that. And we have great partners is a win for them and a win for us.
所以，我们对那里的增长感到非常满意，因为，我们能从这些保单中获得佣金，而且这些客户的保留时间更长。所以我们大约一半的“鲁滨逊”客户选择了 Progressive，一半选择了我们的合作承运商，我们对此感觉非常好。而且我们拥有优秀的合作伙伴，这对他们和我们来说都是双赢的。
保险经纪的空间在长期趋势中是被挤压的。
So, we'll continue that growth on both our paper and within our Progressive Advantage Agency. We continue to add new partners to make sure that we give our customers the ability to bundle the auto home.
所以，我们将继续在我们自己的业务和 Progressive Advantage Agency 内部实现增长。我们将继续增加新的合作伙伴，以确保我们的客户能够捆绑购买汽车和房屋保险。
John Murphy
约翰·墨菲
Just a clarity on that 30% direct. So that is of the property business, the progressive rights, as Tricia was mentioning, we have unaffiliated third-party carriers that we work with through our direct channel and that is a very significant business and growing rapidly as well.
澄清一下那 30% 的直接业务。那是财产险业务中，Progressive 承保的部分，正如 Tricia 提到的，我们通过直接渠道与非附属的第三方承运商合作，这是一项非常重要的业务，并且也在快速增长。
So, when we talk about the policies in force of Robinsons, we skew direct, that is where we started bundling with those third-party carriers and increasingly, we have offered the progressive product there as well. But by far and away, the majority of what we're selling direct is actually the third-party business. So, the 30% is what is underwritten by Progressive go indirect.
所以，当我们谈论“鲁滨逊”客户的有效保单时，我们倾向于直接渠道，那是我们开始与那些第三方承运商捆绑销售的地方，并且我们也越来越多地在那里提供 Progressive 的产品。但到目前为止，我们直接销售的大部分实际上是第三方业务。所以，30% 是由 Progressive 承保的间接业务。
Patrick Callahan
帕特里克·卡拉汉
If I could jump in just quickly on that with the industry trend. So, your observation about direct-to-consumer home and I think the question is there growth in direct-to-consumer home. Our answer is absolutely. And to John's point, that's where we're investing. So, today, roughly 30% of auto insurance is sold direct to consumer and less than 15% of property insurance is sold direct to consumer.
如果我可以就行业趋势快速补充一点。所以，您观察到直接面向消费者的房屋保险，我想问题在于直接面向消费者的房屋保险是否存在增长。我们的答案是肯定的。而且正如约翰所说，这正是我们投资的方向。所以，今天，大约 30% 的汽车保险是直接销售给消费者的，而只有不到 15% 的财产保险是直接销售给消费者的。
So that gap exists in part due to distribution channel but also complexity of the product, meaning homes don't have wins. They're harder to quote in an easy direct-to-consumer experience, and we're investing to change that and to close that gap.
所以这个差距部分是由于分销渠道造成的，但也与产品的复杂性有关，也就是说房屋不像汽车那样有 VIN 码。在便捷的直接面向消费者的体验中，它们更难报价，我们正在投资改变这一点并缩小差距。
And we think as consumers find and easy-to-use direct-to-consumer home option that affords the depth of coverage and breadth of carriers, we think we will capture an outsized portion of that growth going forward. So, we're investing there, and we do expect it to continue to drive growth.
而且我们认为，随着消费者找到易于使用的直接面向消费者的房屋保险选项，提供有深度的保障和广泛的承运商选择，我们将能够抓住未来增长中超乎寻常的一部分。所以，我们正在那里投资，并且我们确实预计它将继续推动增长。
Andrew Andersen
安德鲁·安徒生
Thanks for that. And then as we kind of go into the second half year and into 2026 and an increasingly competitive auto market, does it change kind of where a better -- where a dollar of capital is better deployed whether that be the agency channel or direct? Because I suppose direct has been outgrowing agency for a couple of years now.
谢谢。然后，随着我们进入下半年和 2026 年，汽车市场竞争日益激烈，这是否会改变资本的最佳配置方向——是代理渠道还是直接渠道？因为我想直接渠道的增长已经连续几年超过代理渠道了。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, I think direct is influenced largely by our media spend. We want to grow across the board. And so that will -- the timing could be different based on the competitive nature out there. And so clearly, if you go into an agent's office, you have a lot more choices, which we think is really great for consumers. We're going to continue to drive growth. We are the largest independent agent company out there. And so that's been a big part of our growth in our history.
是的，我认为直接渠道在很大程度上受到我们媒体支出的影响。我们希望全面增长。因此，这——时机可能会因外部竞争环境而有所不同。很明显，如果你去代理商的办公室，你会有更多的选择，我们认为这对消费者来说非常好。我们将继续推动增长。我们是最大的独立代理公司。因此，这一直是我们历史上增长的重要组成部分。
And in the second half, we'll push the envelope on both trying to grow in the agency channel and having incentives to grow. And in some event have the incentive to grow in the bundled business where we want to grow in our less volatile states and direct will be heavily influenced by not just price, but our ability to advertise.
在下半年，我们将努力推动代理渠道的增长，并提供增长激励。在某些情况下，我们会激励捆绑业务的增长，我们希望在波动性较小的州实现增长，而直接渠道不仅会受到价格的严重影响，还会受到我们广告能力的影响。
Andrew Andersen
安德鲁·安徒生
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator
接线员
The next question is from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。请提问。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里·彼得斯
Good morning. So, one of the areas that's been tremendously impactful for you guys the last couple of years is just the investment income growth. And we really didn't spend any time in the Q&A section talking about it. So, maybe you can give us some perspective on where you are with new money yields and book yields and how you're thinking about asset allocation as we look forward, considering your comments about the choppy market conditions?
早上好。在过去几年中，对你们公司影响巨大的一个领域就是投资收益的增长。但在问答环节我们并没有花时间讨论这个问题。所以，考虑到您之前提到市场状况动荡，您能否就目前的新增资金收益率和账面收益率，以及对未来资产配置的考虑，给我们一些看法？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, I'm going to let Jon Bauer, who runs our Progressive Capital Management answer that. But the short answer is we definitely had new money come in that we can invest in greater yielding securities, and that's been part of it. I talked a little bit about it in my letter in my opening comments. But Jon, do you want to give Gregory a little bit more color on that?
是的，这个问题我请我们 Progressive 资本管理公司的负责人 Jon Bauer 来回答。但简单来说，我们确实有新的资金流入，可以投资于收益率更高的证券，这也是原因之一。我在开场白的信中也稍微提到了一点。但是 Jon，你愿意给 Gregory 更详细地说明一下吗？
CEO没有资本配置的能力是个重大的缺陷，超过30年，资本的收益将大于投入的本金。
Jon Bauer
乔恩·鲍尔
Sure. Yes. Thanks so much for the question. I would just start with -- it's really important to understand what Progressive's model what we're aiming for from a management and Board perspective, which is to drive our return on equity over time. And so we think about that by starting with our operating business grow as fast as we can at a 96 -- with our operating leverage.
当然。是的。非常感谢您提出的问题。我想从这一点开始——理解 Progressive 的模式以及我们管理层和董事会的目标至关重要，那就是随着时间的推移提高我们的股本回报率。因此，我们的出发点是让我们的运营业务在 96 的综合成本率下，利用我们的经营杠杆，尽可能快地增长。
On top of that, we have a really efficient capital structure. So, think about our financial leverage, which has generally been in the 20% to 30% range, a little bit lower at the moment, just due to our really strong comprehensive income growth.
在此之上，我们拥有非常高效的资本结构。所以，想想我们的财务杠杆，通常在 20% 到 30% 的范围内，目前略低一些，这仅仅是因为我们非常强劲的综合收益增长。
And then we think about, assuming we have the strong capital we need, we're in a good efficient capital structure position. What type of investment risk do we want to be taking to drive performance over the long-term.
然后我们会考虑，假设我们拥有所需的雄厚资本，并且处于良好高效的资本结构位置，我们希望承担何种类型的投资风险以推动长期业绩。
And for us, over the last year or so, valuations were not particularly attractive. And therefore, you saw as we came into this year, we had one of our more conservative allocations that we have with a significant amount of cash and treasuries.
对我们来说，在过去一年左右的时间里，估值并不是特别有吸引力。因此，你可以看到，进入今年时，我们的配置是比较保守的，持有大量现金和国债。
And as Tricia mentioned earlier, a very low amount of equities. As we've moved through last year and to this year, we did raise our interest rate risk up a little bit, which you could see through our duration up from three years to 3.4 years. So, as we sit now as a company, we feel like we're in an incredibly strong capital position with a portfolio that if opportunities strike will have the ability to take advantage of those.
正如 Tricia 早些时候提到的，我们的股票配置非常低。从去年到今年，我们确实略微提高了利率风险，你可以从我们的久期从三年增加到 3.4 年看出来。所以，作为一家公司，我们目前感觉资本状况非常强劲，拥有一个在机会出现时能够抓住机会的投资组合。
But at the moment, we're incredibly patient. But what's been great with all of that is through the strong growth of the operating business as well as the increase in yields in the market through risk-free yields moving higher and credit spreads moving wider, that's given us an opportunity to generate more and more investment income, and you've seen our book yields rise but I do want to point out different from many of our competitors, we don't really target a book yield.
但目前，我们非常有耐心。但最棒的是，伴随着运营业务的强劲增长以及市场上无风险收益率上升和信贷息差扩大的推动，我们获得了创造越来越多投资收益的机会，你也看到了我们的账面收益率在上升，但我确实想指出，与我们的许多竞争对手不同，我们并不真正以账面收益率为目标。
We're looking to drive a stronger total return as we can over time. And having that long-term focus really allows us to go through a period like 2024 where we can have a very conservative allocation to risk and wait for opportunities to come our way. Does that answer your question?
我们着眼于在长期内尽可能地提高总回报。这种长远眼光确实使我们能够度过像 2024 年这样的时期，我们可以采取非常保守的风险配置，等待机会的到来。这回答了你的问题吗？
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里·彼得斯
Yes, it does. There's obviously more detail in there, but -- and not appropriate for this conference call. I want to go back is just the last question for me. Tricia in your comments, you mentioned the dongle and Snapshot is prominently featured. And I guess this is like a technology-related issue. How many people are still using the dongle?
是的，回答了。显然还有更多细节，但——不适合在这次电话会议上讨论。我想回到我的最后一个问题。Tricia，在您的评论中，您提到了加密狗，并且 Snapshot 被重点介绍。我猜这像是一个技术相关的问题。还有多少人在使用加密狗？
I feel like a number of your competitors have switched from the dongle to like apps on the phone, the track movement data as well, if not better. But I don't -- I just -- I'm surprised that the dongle is still there. Maybe you can give us a how much of the dongle is being used, the Snapshot product is being used? I know you're rolling out your new 8.9 model. So, some additional color there would be helpful.
我觉得你们的一些竞争对手已经从加密狗转向了手机应用程序，这些应用程序也能跟踪运动数据，甚至可能更好。但我——我只是——我很惊讶加密狗仍然存在。您能告诉我们加密狗的使用情况，Snapshot 产品的使用情况吗？我知道你们正在推出新的 8.9 模型。所以，提供一些额外的信息会很有帮助。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
The majority -- I'm not sure the exact percentage, Pat might now, the majority of our new business is at our mobile device, but we still do have some on a dongle, which is helpful for -- because it's getting data directly from the cars, so it really helps us to tune and refine our models a little bit differently than the mobile device, but most of the new stuff is coming through mobile. Pat, do you know what?
大部分——我不确定确切的百分比，Pat 可能知道，我们大部分的新业务都来自我们的移动设备，但我们仍然有一些业务通过加密狗进行，这很有帮助——因为它直接从汽车获取数据，所以它确实能帮助我们以与移动设备略有不同的方式调整和完善我们的模型，但大部分新业务都通过移动设备进行。Pat，你知道吗？
Patrick Callahan
帕特里克·卡拉汉
Yes, I don't have the exact percentage or mix on it. But you're right, when given the choice, consumers opt for the mobile app, and that does give us additional information beyond the hardware device and lowers the cost and that we're not shipping out devices and paying for a cell chip in all those monitored vehicles.
是的，我没有确切的百分比或混合比例。但你说得对，如果让消费者选择，他们会选择移动应用程序，这确实为我们提供了硬件设备之外的额外信息，并降低了成本，因为我们不需要运送设备并为所有那些受监控的车辆支付蜂窝芯片费用。
两个人对技术的兴趣都不大。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里·彼得斯
Are you just seeing an uptake in the use of the mobile device versus your historical experience? Or is it just staying consistent, the level staying consistent?
与你们的历史经验相比，你们是看到移动设备的使用量在增加吗？还是说它只是保持一致，水平保持一致？
Patrick Callahan
帕特里克·卡拉汉
Well, we are seeing a higher take rate, particularly in the direct channel, where we optimize the experience and where consumers are interested in saving money and getting rewarded for safer driving.
嗯，我们确实看到了更高的使用率，尤其是在直接渠道，我们在那里优化了体验，消费者有兴趣省钱并因更安全的驾驶而获得奖励。
So, we think UBI as our most powerful and predictive variable continues to be a differentiator for us in market and we continue to invest, leverage our scale and leverage the technology to drive adoption and help that price more accurately.
因此，我们认为基于使用行为的保险（UBI）作为我们最强大和最具预测性的变量，将继续成为我们在市场上的差异化优势，我们将继续投资，利用我们的规模和技术来推动其采用，并帮助更准确地定价。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里·彼得斯
Got it. Thanks for the answers.
明白了。感谢您的回答。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Douglas Constantine
道格拉斯·康斯坦丁
Those in the queue appear to be those who have already asked questions. So that concludes our event. Michela, I'll hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.
排队等待提问的似乎都是已经问过问题的人。因此，我们的活动到此结束。Michela，我把电话转回给你，由你来做结束语。
Operator
接线员
Thank you. That concludes the Progressive Corporation's first quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations' section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.
谢谢。Progressive 公司第一季度投资者活动到此结束。有关活动重播的信息将在未来一年内发布在 Progressive 网站的投资者关系部分。您现在可以挂断电话了。
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