James Dimon Chairman & CEO
You have -- now you have the scenario-plan it, okay? If we have a soft landing and rates stay where they are, come down a little bit, which is what the world expects, everyone is fine. If you have a harder landing with stagflation, yes, you're going to see a lot of stress and strain in the system, from banks, to leverage companies, to real estate, to a whole bunch of stuff.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
你得做情景规划。如果经济软着陆、利率维持或小幅下降——世界普遍预期如此——那大家都没问题。如果出现滞胀式硬着陆，系统内将承受巨大压力，从银行到杠杆公司、房地产等各方面都会受影响。
That's what it is. If things get worse, it's going to filter right through all those things. And in my view, is the world's just not ready for that. I mean, a lot of you in this audience have never seen rates at 6% on a 10-year bond. And I don't know why you think it's not possible. It is possible. I for one think the odds are much higher than the people think. So you got to look at the scenarios for that.
情况就是这样。如果变得更糟，冲击会层层传导。我认为世界对此并未做好准备。现场很多人从未见过 10 年期国债收益率 6%。我不明白你们为何认为不可能，它完全可能。我个人认为概率远高于大家的想象，所以必须审视这些情景。
And so -- but I also think -- what I see a lot of banks doing in particular is thinking ahead in terms of capital, interest rate exposure, real estate exposure, reserves. Then you got to go bank by bank at that point. It doesn't help to make a generic statement about banks.
此外，我看到许多银行在资本、利率风险、房地产敞口、拨备方面开始超前思考。此时你必须逐家机构具体分析，泛泛而谈毫无意义。
And so -- but I think real estate, too. I remind people in real estate, because I heard Charlie talking about it a little bit, rates went up 300 basis points. That makes any cash flow worth 30% less. So it's got nothing to do with real estate. If an asset was worth \$100, it's now worth \$70. If people were lending \$60 against \$100, they're now lending \$50 against a \$70. That's all it is. That's got -- that's not even real estate. That could be almost any asset out there.
关于房地产，我也提醒大家，因为我听查理提到：利率上升 300 个基点意味着任何现金流的现值减少 30%。这与房地产本身无关。如果资产价值原本 100 美元，现在只有 70 美元。如果原先借款人能贷 60，现在只能贷 50。这就是全部，仅仅是利率作用，几乎适用于任何资产。
So -- and of course, people have personal guarantees. They put in equity. And a bank will rollover not at 50%, but maybe 90% to keep the thing alive. But that is the kind of math. That's -- I call it, that's the gravity of interest rates. That's a cosmological constant. And so people need to be prepared for that.
当然，人们提供个人担保，投入自有资金。银行可能不会只续贷 50%，而是 90%，以维持项目运转。但这就是数学，我称之为利率引力，是宇宙常数，人们必须为此做好准备。
The surprise will be stagflation. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I just give the odds much higher than other people. I look at the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that's taken place over the last 5 years has been so extraordinary. How can you tell me it won't lead to stagflation? Now it might not, but I for one, we're quite prepared for it.
真正的意外将是滞胀。我并不是说一定会发生，只是认为概率比别人估计的高得多。过去五年实施的财政和货币刺激极其庞大，你怎样能肯定不会导致滞胀？当然也可能不会发生，但至少我们已经做好充分准备。