2024-05-29 James Dimon.Bernstein's 40th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference

2024-05-29 James Dimon.Bernstein's 40th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference

Unknown Analyst
Okay. Thanks, everyone. We're very happy to have JPMorgan Chase CEO, Jamie Dimon, joining us. Jamie, thanks so much for coming back. Great to have you here.
未知分析师
好的，谢谢大家。我们非常高兴邀请到摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙。杰米，非常感谢您再次到来，很高兴您能出席。

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
Thank you.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
谢谢。

Unknown Analyst
I was hoping to start off with a few follow-ups from Investor Day last week. A couple of things on folks' mind after...
未知分析师
我想先从上周投资者日的一些后续问题开始。有几件事情大家比较关注，关于……

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
Clear the air about stock buyback, yes.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
先澄清一下股票回购的问题，是的。

Unknown Analyst
Yes. So I mean, I think for context, last week, share buybacks are something investors are clearly very focused on. You're generating a lot of capital. If we fast forward a year or 2, you'll have quite a bit of excess capital. So yes, the comments about being valuation-sensitive caused some stir. Maybe you could give follow-up thoughts on how you think about that.
未知分析师
是的。我想给大家一点背景，上周股票回购显然是投资者非常关注的话题。你们正在产生大量资本。假如我们把时间快进一两年，你们将会拥有相当可观的多余资本。因此，关于“估值敏感”的评论引起了一些波动。也许您可以进一步谈谈对此的看法。

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
Let me just totally clarify. First of all, welcome everybody.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
让我先彻底澄清一下。首先，欢迎各位。

Totally clarify. We told the world we're buying back approximately \$2 billion a quarter. We continue to do that. Jeremy Barnum said we might do more. There's a logic to use the Visa after-tax money to buy back stock because it's market-neutral. So Visa goes up and down. And JPMorgan, I'm not going to tell you exactly the timetable of that, but thinking that's a very rational thing to do. We've been doing some of that, we'll continue to do that. And from there, we could do more or less as we see fit.
彻底澄清一下。我们向外界宣布每季度大约回购 20 亿美元，我们会继续这么做。杰里米·巴纳姆提到我们可能会做得更多。用出售 Visa 股份的税后收益来回购自家股票是有逻辑的，因为这在市场上是中性的。Visa 的股价会上下波动。至于摩根大通的回购时间表，我不会告诉你确切日期，但我认为这非常合理。我们已经做了一部分，也会继续做。以后我们可能会根据情况增减规模。

There are no promises on any which I -- we've always been sensitive about the stock price. I do not believe that buying back the stock at any price is the same thing, and that we should be thoughtful about that. So as the stock goes up, we buy less. If the stock goes down, we'd probably buy more. We are going to end up with a lot of excess capital and we're not going to just spend it because it happens to be sitting there.
我不会对任何具体金额作出承诺——我们一直对股价保持敏感。我不认为在任何价位回购股票都是一样的事，我们必须谨慎对待。因此股价上涨时我们会少买，股价下跌时我们可能会多买。我们最终会拥有大量多余资本，但不会因为它闲置就随意花掉。

I personally think the valuations in the market are high. There's -- not that we're saying JPMorgan isn't properly valued relative to the market, I'm saying that the market is high. And I think it's a mistake to be using all that capital at these market levels. And so we're going to be very patient. It's a good problem to have.
我个人认为当前市场整体估值偏高。我并不是说摩根大通相对市场估值不合理，而是市场总体偏高。我认为在这种市场水平上把所有资本都花掉是错误的，因此我们会非常耐心。这是一个“幸福的烦恼”。

I look at ownership of a company no different than if I own the company, I wouldn't have any problem having excess capital sitting there for a while. 0, none, nada. You haven't lost it. You haven't wasted it. It's earnings in store. We will find ways to deploy it. And if we don't, we can always make a big special dividend. We can do something like that, which is not my preference for a whole bunch of different reasons. But we're going to do what's in the interest of the long-term shareholder.
我把持有公司股份看作自己真正拥有这家公司。如果账上暂时有多余资本，我完全不介意——零问题，完全没有损失，也没有浪费，那是储存起来的收益。我们会找到合适的方式去配置它。如果最终找不到，我们还可以发放一次性特别股息。我们可以做类似的事情，虽然基于多种原因这并非我的首选。但我们会做符合长期股东利益的事情。

And so does that clarify it?
所以这样解释清楚了吗？

Unknown Analyst
Yes. Absolutely.
未知分析师
是的，非常清楚。

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
Okay. Can I clarify one other thing because I looked, coming down here, at analyst projections. Roughly. I'm not going to comment on every line item. We have told you that we're going to be adding reserves mostly for credit card, and you have not put it in your models. It's about \$2 billion this year. That's about \$500 million a quarter. Okay? So change your models.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
好的。我还想澄清另一件事，因为我刚才在路上看了一下分析师的预测，大致情况。我不会对每一项都评论。我们已经告诉过你们，我们主要会为信用卡业务提取拨备，但你们没有把它纳入模型。今年大约是 20 亿美元，相当于每季度 5 亿美元。明白吗？所以请调整你们的模型。

There'll be other ins and outs, but literally, as the credit card balances go up, you have to add those things. And obviously, CECL. We can change CECL, too. Some of you don't change that. All things be equal, it's a credit card add for a bunch of -- the growth of portfolio.
当然还会有其他增减项目，但随着信用卡余额上升，你们必须把这些因素计入，而且显然还有 CECL。我们也可以调整 CECL，一些人并没有做这个调整。其他条件不变的情况下，这就是信用卡组合增长所带来的拨备增加。

Unknown Analyst
\$2 billion's what you expect for the year on reserve build for card.
未知分析师
你们预计全年信用卡拨备增加 20 亿美元，对吗？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
For that, yes. There'll be other ins and outs, yes.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
是的，单指这项是 20 亿美元。还会有其他增减项目，是的。

Unknown Analyst
Okay. Another follow-up. Topic of CEO succession came up. You clarified that your time as the CEO seat is inside of the 5 years now. Probably. Yes. So...
未知分析师
好的，另一个跟进问题。话题转到首席执行官继任。您澄清过自己担任 CEO 的时间现在落在 5 年之内，对吧？大概是的。那么……

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
It's totally up to the Board. So you can ask me all you want, but the timetable is less than 5 years. That could be 4, it could be 3, it could be 3.5, it could be 4.5, it could be 2.5. It's up to the Board. The Board will decide. We've got some great succession. You all know them all, so you should evaluate that yourself. But -- and then there may be a term as Chairman for a while after that. That's, again, totally up to the Board.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
这完全由董事会决定。你们想怎么问都行，但时间表肯定不到 5 年，可能是 4 年，也可能是 3 年、3.5 年、4.5 年或 2.5 年。由董事会定夺。我们有出色的接班梯队，你们都认识他们，所以可以自行评估。另外，我在卸任后可能还会再担任一段时间董事长，这同样完全取决于董事会。

Unknown Analyst
So two things. One, we've all seen cases where the retirement of iconic CEO leads to subpar performance afterwards. Besides the good bench, what else is ingrained in JPMorgan that gives you confidence that the company will continue to be successful when you're not CEO.
未知分析师
有两点。第一，我们都见过传奇 CEO 退休后公司表现不佳的案例。除了优秀的接班团队之外，摩根大通还有哪些根深蒂固的东西让您有信心在您不再担任 CEO 时公司仍能成功？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
I mean, I think we have extraordinary management, again, which you know. I mean, you guys should evaluate yourself one day. But you know a lot of these people, how capable they are. And I think there's an extraordinary discipline. When you have -- and you've built the 82nd Airborne. If you want to build an army or an 82nd Airborne, 101st Airborne something like that, and you go to a foreign country and you try to build it, it takes you decades, okay? They just -- it's the equipment and the training and the culture and the character.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
我认为我们拥有杰出的管理层，这点你们也知道。你们某天应该自己评估一下，你们认识这些人，知道他们有多能干。我认为公司内部有一种非凡的纪律性。就好比你打造了美军第 82 空降师。如果你想在外国重新组建这样一支部队，需要几十年。那不仅是装备问题，还包括训练、文化和品格。
Warning
企业文化没有放在最前面。
We've got an 82nd Airborne. It's not going to go away overnight because you have a new CEO or something like that. There are all these disciplines that take place. Charlie is building those disciplines. Somebody just heard it at Wells Fargo, reviews, detail, analytics, observation, looking at competition, risk controls, all those various things.
我们已经拥有一支“第 82 空降师”。换了 CEO 之类的事不会让它一夜消失。这些纪律制度都在发挥作用。查理正在加强这些纪律。有人刚在富国银行听到过，审核、细节、分析、观察、关注竞争、风险控制等各方面都在落实。

So those things will be -- some of those things are machine. And obviously, hopefully, the depth of management goes way beyond just the top people. It goes into every trading desk, into every branch, into every business, it goes into innovation. The things we've been doing for 10 or 15 years have been -- they've been doing it for a long time. So hopefully, it's ingrained in people. And in the Board, by the way.
所以这些东西——有些已经像机器一样运转。当然，希望管理深度不仅限于高层，而是渗透到每个交易台、每家分行、每个业务，渗透到创新之中。我们过去 10 到 15 年一直在做的事，他们也做了很长时间。希望这已深植于员工之中，也深植于董事会。

Unknown Analyst
And just on that other topic. What is your view of the pros and cons remaining on as Chairman after you're no longer CEO?
未知分析师
再谈另一个话题。您不再担任 CEO 后继续担任董事长的利弊是什么？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
I read it, there was a newspaper article today. And I love it when these people make binary statements because clearly is -- how the hell do they know? That's why you have a Board. The Board should decide what's in the best interest of the company.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
我看到了，今天有篇报纸文章。我喜欢这些人下二元论的结论，可他们凭什么这么肯定？这就是为什么要有董事会。董事会应当决定对公司最有利的做法。

And the Chairman -- the separation of the Chairman and CEO or the Chairman, CEO, there are tons of examples where Chairman and CEO were separate and it was really bad for the company. Global Crossing, Enron, WorldCom. So when they write these articles, this obsession with that thing, does the company function? Does it function properly? Does it have good governance?
至于董事长——分设董事长和 CEO 或合并董事长兼 CEO——有大量例子显示两职分离对公司很糟，比如 Global Crossing、安然、世通。所以当他们写这些文章、执迷于此时，问题在于公司运转是否正常？治理是否完善？

I pointed out, with the most important governance of things, is that -- and I've been doing this since Bank One. Every single meeting we have, they get to meet all the senior people, they know them all well. But also in every meeting they have, I leave the meeting at one point and they meet separately without me. And it's run by the lead director, which basically has the same authority as our Chairman. And at one point, I wanted to get rid of the Chairman title, just have a Lead Director and a CEO. I mean, like who cares? I mean, we're overstating the importance issue at one point.
我指出，最重要的治理措施是——自从 Bank One 起我就这么做——每次会议他们都会见到所有高管，与他们非常熟悉。但每次会议中我都会有一刻离场，让他们单独讨论，由首席独立董事主持，他基本拥有与董事长相同的权力。我曾一度想取消董事长头衔，只保留首席独立董事和 CEO。谁在乎这个称号？我们有时把这个问题的重要性夸大了。

And then also afterwards, there are a lot of things where people stayed for a year or 2 and worked. There are some examples where a Chairman stayed there. They were a great partnership and they went on for years. So there's no magic to it, but the Board to do the right thing. If the Chairman is getting the wave of the new CEO, they should go. If the Chairman is helping the new CEO in a million different ways, they should stay.
此外，也有很多例子显示有人在卸任 CEO 后担任一年或两年董事长继续工作，也有董事长长期留任并与新 CEO 合作良好的案例。所以没有什么魔法公式，只要董事会做正确的决定即可。如果董事长妨碍新 CEO，就该离开；如果能在无数方面帮助新 CEO，就该留下。

And so I applaud what James Gorman did. I think they did a great job. My Board -- we gave the Board studies of multiple successful and failed successions. There is no magic formula. But the quality and character and content of the people is probably the one thing that matters the most.
因此我赞赏詹姆斯·戈尔曼的做法，我认为他们做得很好。我向董事会提供了多项成功与失败继任案例研究。没有万能公式，但人员的素质、品格和内涵可能是最关键的因素。

Will they -- will people do the right thing? I'll do the right thing when the time comes. I don't have to hang on to the CEO or the Chairman role forever. I got fired once, I was fine. And so I -- we'll do the right thing when the time comes.
他们——人们会不会做正确的事？到时候我会做正确的事。我没必要永远占着 CEO 或董事长的位子。我曾经被解雇过，也没事。所以到时候我们会做正确的事。

And so -- but I don't like cookie-cutter solutions. That's always wrong. Whenever I go to Europe, it's the endless subject, particularly the FT. Chairman-CEO conflicts. But they never actually analyze it. There's no evidence that, that's true. And of course, America does much better than European companies, so maybe they don't have it right.
所以——我不喜欢千篇一律的解决方案，那总是错的。我每次去欧洲，总会被问到这个无休止的话题，尤其是《金融时报》——董事长与 CEO 的冲突。但他们从未真正分析过，没有证据表明冲突必然存在。当然，美国公司的表现也好过欧洲，也许是他们的做法不对。

Unknown Analyst
Maybe just one more on the Investor Day for those that weren't there. You talked about areas where JPMorgan is doing great, where you're big, great market shares. But you said you also wanted your leaders to highlight where there's still opportunities, where you're undersized in. What are some of the key highlights there where you still see...
未知分析师
也许再就投资者日补充一个问题，给那些没到场的人。您谈到了摩根大通表现出色的领域，规模大、市场份额高。但您也表示希望让管理层指出仍有机会、规模不足的地方。在您看来，还有哪些关键亮点……

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
I love it when, as a part of the management team, if you were JPMorgan Chase, I don't like -- inside. And we celebrate lots of stuff. We do road trips. We congratulate people. But in a management meeting, we, in my view, it's emphasize the negatives. You're not here to toot the horn. A CFO was not there to put the best foot forward. There's none of that. It's like what's the truth, the real -- how are you doing relative to other people? Where are you weak? Where are you strong? Where does someone kick your b\*\*\*?
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
我喜欢这样，如果你是摩根大通的管理团队成员，我不想——在内部我们确实庆祝很多事情，也会外出考察，表彰员工。但在管理会议上，我认为应当强调不足之处。此时不是自我吹嘘，也不是让 CFO 把最好的一面展示出来，都不是。关键是找出真相，真正了解自己相对他人的表现：我们哪里薄弱，哪里强劲，谁在某些方面把我们打得落花流水？

Where's -- so I love it when they showed the -- Troy and Jen showed the CIB, where we're #1, 2 or 3 in 22 of the 23 products, stuff like that. But I love the second page more, where you just break it apart by product, by area. So think of FX, credit, macro, equities, cash, derivatives, prime, ECM, DCM, M\&A. And you break it apart by region and stuff like that. Now you have set where we're not #1, 2 or 3 in Africa.
因此，当特洛伊和詹展示投行部门时，我很高兴地看到我们在 23 个产品中有 22 个排名前 3。但我更喜欢第二张页，将业务按产品、区域拆分：外汇、信用、宏观、股票、现金、衍生品、主经纪、股本融资、债务融资、并购，再按地区细分。这样就能看到我们在非洲并非前 3 的领域。

And why not? Why shouldn't we be #1 or 2 or 3 FX trading in Asia or in a country or stuff like that. And that highlights, that kind of heat map highlights where you can do things. That you could do that by city, by state, by country, by business, by product, by service, and we do.
那为什么不行？为什么我们不能在亚洲或某些国家的外汇交易中排到前 3？这种热力图能凸显提升空间。你可以按城市、州、国家、业务、产品、服务维度来做，我们确实如此分析。

And they showed you charts in consumer where we're #1, 2 or 3 in market share in this place. Those will show you that market share matters in terms of profitability. And we did it. We could do it in payments. We can do it -- they show you charts in payments where we're really good with -- we were the bankers' bank. So we're really good with financial institutions, but we were short versus Citi in tons of corporate areas, and corporations, I mean, and stuff like that. And that's how we do it. We look at those things and look at opportunities.
他们还展示了消费业务的图表，说明我们在某些地区市场份额排前 3。这些图表表明市场份额与盈利能力密切相关。我们也能在支付领域做到这一点。图表显示我们擅长服务金融机构——我们曾是“银行家的银行”，但在众多企业客户领域与花旗相比仍有差距，诸如此类。这就是我们的做法：审视差距并寻找机会。

And then behind that, you have the investment in product, services, technology to help drive that. Huge -- I think we talked about Chase Offers and Chase Media. I just think that's going to be a great thing over time as we get good at it. And so -- and of course, building the infrastructure is going to be important. Any bankers in countries are important. They're all important. And we kind of lay it out for you, that's what we're going to do. I think some of that stuff won't change for a decade, by the way.
为了推动这些目标，我们需要在产品、服务、技术上投入巨资——比如 Chase Offers 和 Chase Media，我认为随着我们熟练运作，这将变得极具价值。当然，建设基础设施同样重要，各国的银行家都很重要，一切都重要。我们已经为你们列出规划，这就是我们要做的，而且其中一些工作十年都不会变。

Unknown Analyst
So it's been a year since we had significant turmoil of the banking sector. How do you size up the health of the industry in general? And in particular, the smaller regional banks?
未知分析师
距离银行业经历重大动荡已有一年。总体来看，您如何评估行业健康状况？尤其是较小的地区性银行？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
You have -- now you have the scenario-plan it, okay? If we have a soft landing and rates stay where they are, come down a little bit, which is what the world expects, everyone is fine. If you have a harder landing with stagflation, yes, you're going to see a lot of stress and strain in the system, from banks, to leverage companies, to real estate, to a whole bunch of stuff.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
你得做情景规划。如果经济软着陆、利率维持或小幅下降——世界普遍预期如此——那大家都没问题。如果出现滞胀式硬着陆，系统内将承受巨大压力，从银行到杠杆公司、房地产等各方面都会受影响。

That's what it is. If things get worse, it's going to filter right through all those things. And in my view, is the world's just not ready for that. I mean, a lot of you in this audience have never seen rates at 6% on a 10-year bond. And I don't know why you think it's not possible. It is possible. I for one think the odds are much higher than the people think. So you got to look at the scenarios for that.
情况就是这样。如果变得更糟，冲击会层层传导。我认为世界对此并未做好准备。现场很多人从未见过 10 年期国债收益率 6%。我不明白你们为何认为不可能，它完全可能。我个人认为概率远高于大家的想象，所以必须审视这些情景。

And so -- but I also think -- what I see a lot of banks doing in particular is thinking ahead in terms of capital, interest rate exposure, real estate exposure, reserves. Then you got to go bank by bank at that point. It doesn't help to make a generic statement about banks.
此外，我看到许多银行在资本、利率风险、房地产敞口、拨备方面开始超前思考。此时你必须逐家机构具体分析，泛泛而谈毫无意义。

And so -- but I think real estate, too. I remind people in real estate, because I heard Charlie talking about it a little bit, rates went up 300 basis points. That makes any cash flow worth 30% less. So it's got nothing to do with real estate. If an asset was worth \$100, it's now worth \$70. If people were lending \$60 against \$100, they're now lending \$50 against a \$70. That's all it is. That's got -- that's not even real estate. That could be almost any asset out there.
关于房地产，我也提醒大家，因为我听查理提到：利率上升 300 个基点意味着任何现金流的现值减少 30%。这与房地产本身无关。如果资产价值原本 100 美元，现在只有 70 美元。如果原先借款人能贷 60，现在只能贷 50。这就是全部，仅仅是利率作用，几乎适用于任何资产。

So -- and of course, people have personal guarantees. They put in equity. And a bank will rollover not at 50%, but maybe 90% to keep the thing alive. But that is the kind of math. That's -- I call it, that's the gravity of interest rates. That's a cosmological constant. And so people need to be prepared for that.
当然，人们提供个人担保，投入自有资金。银行可能不会只续贷 50%，而是 90%，以维持项目运转。但这就是数学，我称之为利率引力，是宇宙常数，人们必须为此做好准备。
Idea
非常好的描述。
The surprise will be stagflation. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I just give the odds much higher than other people. I look at the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that's taken place over the last 5 years has been so extraordinary. How can you tell me it won't lead to stagflation? Now it might not, but I for one, we're quite prepared for it.
真正的意外将是滞胀。我并不是说一定会发生，只是认为概率比别人估计的高得多。过去五年实施的财政和货币刺激极其庞大，你怎样能肯定不会导致滞胀？当然也可能不会发生，但至少我们已经做好充分准备。

Unknown Analyst
And you mentioned that from a regulatory angle, we still really haven't addressed the things that caused problems last year on the funding, liquidity side. What are the...
未知分析师
您提到，从监管角度看，我们至今仍未真正解决去年在融资和流动性方面引发问题的那些根源。具体有哪些……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes. Well, they're talking about it now because I saw some speeches that some of them gave. I never liked HTM. Like — and so the amazing thing, this goes on to like regulations, I mean, in capital and Basel incented you to put them in HTM. I don't know why held-to-maturity, something you cannot sell, you've tied your own hands, is better from a capital standpoint.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
是的，现在他们确实开始谈这个话题，我看到几位官员发表了演讲。我从来不喜欢 HTM（持有至到期）。奇怪的是，资本规则和巴塞尔协议反而鼓励你把证券放到 HTM 里。我不明白，把资产锁死、无法出售、给自己上手铐，为什么从资本视角反而更好。

And when people walk in your office and say, well, it's a 25% return on HTM, and it's 12.5% return, but it's the same security. I just don't get it sometimes, and people actually believe some of these numbers. And so I think there should be restrictions in HTM, and based on something. I'm not going to — could be based on your long-term debt or something like that. But to me — and there should have been more analysis on interest-rate exposure. It was well known what these people are doing and stuff like that.
当有人走进你办公室说，HTM 的回报率是 25%，而 AFS 只有 12.5%，可实际上买的是同一只债券。我有时真无法理解，但人们居然相信这些数字。因此 HTM 应该受到某种限制，也许按长期债务比例来限。更重要的是，原本就该对利率风险暴露做更多分析，大家都知道那些银行在干什么。

So — and then liquidity, I think they should take a deep breath in liquidity because liquidity is a big mumbo jumbo of stuff at this point. And what you want to do — and I agree with the term of the discount window. Absolutely, that should be a real source of liquidity. But if you're going to use a discount window, you should change LCR to mimic the discount window. That creates real flexible liquidity in the system where you can lend and you're backed up by the Fed. As opposed to today, LCR is HQLA and treasuries and stuff like that. So you — it's very rigid. It will cause a problem one day. So I think they should look at the whole liquidity regime.
再说流动性。我认为监管部门在流动性问题上应该深呼吸一下，因为现在流动性规定乱成一团。我赞成把贴现窗口当作真正的流动性来源。但若要用贴现窗口，就该把 LCR 改成与贴现窗口一致的机制，让系统获得由美联储托底的灵活流动性；而不是像现在这样，LCR 只认高流动性资产和国债，非常僵化，迟早会出事。所以我认为应当全面审视流动性框架。

And liquidity is the big point. It was never capital. So when you look at capital and CCAR, you got to be a little careful to think that those things — it does lull people into a false sense of security. I always looked at CCAR. We always do stress testing. Now it's like 80,000 pages on one test, and we do 100 a week. So the way you protect yourself is the 100 a week, that you can handle various types of stress tests, which are things you've seen, the '87 crash, the '94 bond ramp, the '97 market crash, the 2000 Internet, the '04. I mean, we should be able to handle all those things roughly, and we can. Without barely — it will never then capital. But it can cause a crisis if people lose a lot of money or if they have a liquidity problem, something like that.
真正关键的是流动性，而不是资本。看资本和 CCAR 时要小心，它们会让人产生虚假的安全感。我们一直做压力测试，现在一次 CCAR 报告就有 8 万页，我们每周做 100 个内部测试。真正的保护措施是这每周 100 个测试，要能应对 1987 年股灾、1994 年债券暴跌、1997 年市场崩盘、2000 年互联网泡沫、2004 年等各种情景——我们基本都能扛过去，不必动用资本。但若亏损巨大或出现流动性问题，仍可能引发危机。

So — and I do believe in that. I just think my own view is it's just time to revamp the whole regulatory regime. It's literally — it's all barnacles and added on top of each other. I mean, people should take a step back and say, "What is it we're trying to accomplish?"
因此，我确实相信这些原则。但我个人认为，现在是时候全面重构监管体系了。现行规则就像层层附着的藤壶，一层叠一层。人们应该退一步思考：“我们真正想达成什么目标？”

And international standards. Do you — what is the international standards? What makes — I think you can make banks completely run-proof if you want to. And just get rid of this idea that deposits will lose money if something goes wrong. Just get rid of it. Because I'm tired, every time there's a kerfuffle in a bank, the whole system gets rattled and stuff like that. And maybe we should end that.
再谈所谓国际标准——到底什么才算国际标准？若愿意，你完全可以让银行免于挤兑风险，取消“存款可能亏损”这一概念。每次银行出事，整个系统都跟着震动，我已经厌倦了，也许我们该终结这种状况。

And there are ways to do that, which if people want to have a serious conversation about how to do it. And when you look at with the uninsured deposits, you should look at runnable deposits. They're not one class of things. But you can make all runnable deposits fully backed and have that very healthy banking system with lower capital requirements, not higher capital requirements.
要实现这一点有方法，如果人们愿意认真讨论。谈到“非保本存款”，应关注可流动性（runnable）的存款，而不是简单二分。可通过对所有易流动存款提供全额担保，在较低而非更高的资本要求下，也能保持健康的银行体系。

And look, I think they should do that at one point, really take a step back. I mean, if I were them, I'd take a deep breath and look at everything.
我认为监管终将需要这么做，真正退一步全面审视。如果我是他们，我会先深呼吸，然后把一切都重新评估一遍。

Unknown Analyst
Using insured and uninsured is overly crude, right, because you're missing some of the nuance there...
未知分析师
仅用“受保”与“未受保”来划分过于粗糙，对吧？其中有很多细微差别被忽略了……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO
It's overly crude because if you were a big corporation, you're going to have billions of dollars in your checking account, you need it there. Not runnable in the same way, but that might be backed up a different way than you back up uninsured, or small businesses or middle market or — and then you could do an analysis, if you just changed the guarantee to $1 million, what would that do? Change it dramatically.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
确实太粗糙。大型企业在活期账户里可能放置数十亿美元流动资金，这些存款的可流动性与普通个人存款不同，担保方式也应有所区别。你也可以做个分析，比如把存款保险上限调到 100 万美元，会带来怎样的变化？影响将非常大。

I guess they all relate to each other. So — but if you want these medium-sized and regional banks to survive, you better be careful what you do at this point. You need them to allow to merge. They need the economies of scale. Too much capital will drive them out of certain products, loans and deposits.
我想这些因素彼此关联。不过，如果希望中型和地区性银行存续下去，现在的举措必须谨慎。应允许它们合并，以获取规模经济；过高的资本要求会迫使它们退出某些产品、贷款和存款业务。

With these capital numbers and liquidity numbers, loans and deposits become very hard for a bank to do. And so now you have this huge growth in private credit. If that's what they intended, so be it. They should tell you that with the forethought. The mortgage business inside a bank. I mean, you could sit there and say, why would a bank have a mortgage business? Well, if that's what you want.
现行资本与流动性指标下，银行要做贷款和吸收存款都变得极难。于是私人信贷迅猛增长。如果监管本就想要这种结果，那也可以，但他们应该事先说明。至于银行经营按揭业务，你可以问，干嘛让银行做房贷？如果这就是监管意图，那也行。

Then they're talking about — Janet Yellen came out and said, well, there are all these mortgage brokers now, mortgage originators and brokers and servicers, they want people to finance their business in a downturn so we should have a backup facility from the government for them.
接着他们又说——耶伦表示，现在有那么多抵押贷款经纪人、发起人和服务商，在经济下行时希望有人为其业务融资，因此政府应提供后备信贷工具。

Really? Is that what you really want to do? Just another one of these ridiculous backup facilities for an industry that doesn't deserve it. I mean, why should they put up liquidity for their servicing requirements? And then it gets embedded in the cost of the product, which the cost of mortgages will go up. But banks have flexible liquidity and capital, some of these other folks don't.
真的吗？这真是你们想干的？又要为一个不该获得支持的行业设置荒唐的后备工具？他们为什么不自备服务所需流动性？最后这会计入产品成本，抬高按揭利率。银行具备灵活流动性和资本，而那些机构没有。

So all these things are going to have ramifications down the road. I also think they have — and this is important to me. I think they have ramifications in the public markets that our public market is getting smaller and smaller and smaller. Is that what you want? And that's a function of capital, regulations, requirements, litigation, SEC rules, frivolous shareholder meetings.
所有这些措施未来都会产生连锁效应。我还认为，它们影响到公共市场——我们的公开市场正变得越来越小。这真是大家想要的吗？这与资本、监管、合规、诉讼、SEC 规则以及无休止的股东议案都有关系。

I think our 10-K is now — even smart people tell me, you guys don't disclose this, and you don't. I say, yes, we do. It's in the 10-K, Page 410. And even that, just endless requirements. And we just — we should — we have the best market the world's ever seen. Let's not destroy them.
我们的 10-K 报告如今篇幅巨大——连聪明人都对我说，你们没有披露某些信息。我回答说，“披露了，在第 410 页。”监管要求无穷无尽。我们拥有世界上最好的市场，别把它们给毁了。

Unknown Analyst
You mentioned it's helpful to have a mix of small, medium, large bank. But with tech costs, regulatory costs, it's hard...
未知分析师
您提到拥有大小银行混合体是有益的，但在技术成本和监管成本面前，这很困难……

Totally. It's different for different banks. So if you look at small community banks, there are some who are very profitable. So I'm not saying here that economies of scale is important to everyone. You can run a single branch or 4 branches and run a very profitable because you are very good. And you're relying on other people providing technology to you as FIS, Fiserv or something like that, they -- remember, they're going to be providing, over time, AI and other products and services.
完全正确。情况因银行而异。如果你观察小型社区银行，其中一些非常盈利。因此，我并不是说规模经济对所有人都重要。你可以只经营一家或四家分行也能赚得盆满钵满，只要你足够优秀。你依赖诸如 FIS、Fiserv 等第三方向你提供技术——请记住，随着时间推移，他们还会向你提供 AI 及其他产品和服务。

But other banks are in a position where they need economies of scale. So if you're trying to compete with some of us in certain products, you need economies of scale. And so they should decide in their own circumstance what their strategy is, what the service is. There are some banks who are very specialty banks, they've done great. And so you got to be careful to predetermine it. That's what you have Boards for and shareholders. And so -- but some need the economies of scale, and they want it, and they're going to feel disadvantaged if they're doing a deal, it takes them 2 years to close it.
但也有些银行需要规模经济。如果你想在某些产品上与我们这些大型机构竞争，就必须具备规模优势。因此，它们应根据自身情况确定战略和服务定位。有些银行专注于特定领域，也做得很出色。所以不要武断地下结论——这正是董事会和股东应当发挥作用的地方。不过，的确有银行渴望获得规模效益，若一次并购要花两年才能完成，它们就会处于劣势。

So if you're a Board and you're sitting there facing a 2-year time period, that's -- the regulator should be predetermining that. That's a political decision. Let them decide. If you are owning these banks and putting together, they think they can manage it. And it's hard to merge banks. I agree with that. And some don't succeed, that's called capitalism. But some succeed. You should allow them to decide on their own about what the strategy is going to be.
因此，如果你是董事会成员，却要面对长达两年的审批期——监管机构其实是在事先作出政治决定。应当让当事方自己决定。如果你收购并整合这些银行，他们认为自己能搞定。合并银行确实困难，我同意这一点；有些并购不会成功，那叫资本主义，但也有并购能成功。应当允许他们自主决定自己的战略。

Unknown Analyst
So you've had massive growth in net interest income over the past few years, aided in large part by the ability to keep consumer deposit prices contained. What's surprised you about Chase's ability to stay disciplined on pricing and also grow core relationships?
未知分析师
过去几年，你们的净利息收入大幅增长，其中很大一部分归功于保持零售存款成本受控的能力。对于大通在维持定价纪律的同时还能扩大核心客户关系，这一点让您最感到意外的是什么？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO
They are two totally different things. First of all, remember, the first part of the growth had nothing to do with betas or stuff like that, going from 0 to 2%. When we went from 2% to 0, we didn't -- we bore the full cost of that. So the first piece, it was just taking back what hadn't been there before. Average deposit -- I mean, you got to look at multiple betas, it's not that different than the past.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
那是两件完全不同的事情。首先要记住，增长的最初阶段与存款贝塔之类因素无关，只是利率从 0 升到 2%。当利率从 2% 回到 0 时，我们承担了全部成本。所以第一段增长只是把之前没有的收益拿回来而已。平均存款贝塔——你得看多重贝塔，其实与过去并无太大差异。

And so the spread, when you get to 2.5%, some banks at 3%, that's all you're going to get. Once you get there, the beta becomes 80% or something like that. So the uncertainty here is the amount of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus is extraordinary. The amount of QE was extraordinary. We don't know the full effect of QT. Obviously, the markets are different. You've got a lot of fintech companies out there and different people holding money and moving money. So you don't really fully know the full effect on beta, but it hasn't been that different.
当利差达到 2.5%，有些银行到 3% 时，能获得的就只有这些了。到了这个阶段，存款贝塔会上升到约 80%。不确定性在于财政和货币刺激的规模空前，量化宽松力度巨大，而量化紧缩的全部影响尚未可知。显然市场环境已改变，涌现了大量金融科技公司，各类资金持有者和流动方式更多，所以无法完全预测贝塔的最终效果，但到目前为止差异并不大。

I've been on the more conservative side, and I've been wrong. So Marianne Lake or Jen Piepszak would tell you Jamie was wrong. And I'd say, yes, I was. I'm still on the conservative side because I do think this -- you see -- and the competition is very local, by the way. It's going to be very different in Nashville than it is in Austin. And so we're conservative.
我本人一直比较保守，而且也确实有误判。玛丽安·莱克或珍·皮普扎克会告诉你，杰米判断错了，我也承认。即便如此，我仍保持谨慎，因为竞争非常本地化，纳什维尔的情况与奥斯汀截然不同，因此我们维持保守姿态。

But it's playing out kind of what we thought. And the question is when will it might get more competitive for us? And certainly, some banks are competing more for dollars and others aren't. So you have to think that through, too. It isn't just -- it's not the system. But at one point, the spreads will stabilize, and that will be fine.
事情大致按照我们的预期演进。问题只是竞争何时会更加激烈？确实，有的银行更积极地争夺存款，有的则否，你也得把这些因素考虑进去。这不单是系统性问题。终有一刻利差会稳定，那就没事了。

But when we look at the business, you got to manage the business through that. And you can't like build branches and run your business like you're thinking that your spread is 1% or 5% when it's not going to be. So actually, when we think about the investment horizon, we actually look at more normalized spreads. For a lot of different things, by the way, not just consumer NII.
经营业务时必须贯穿整个周期管理，不能在利差可能只有 1% 时却按 5% 的假设去开设网点、运营企业。所以我们评估投资周期时，会以更正常化的利差为基础，这不仅适用于零售净息收入，很多领域都是如此。

Unknown Analyst
Yes. And on that question, I mean, a lot of banks have been shrinking their branch counts. But last week at Investor Day, Marianne laid out the case for why you've gone the other way. You doubled down on branch banking. You've become the only bank with branches in 48 states. Why -- what still makes branches so important even in the face of all this digital...
未知分析师
好的，针对这个问题——很多银行都在削减网点数量。但在上周的投资者日上，玛丽安解释了你们为何反其道而行之，加码网点布局，成为唯一在 48 个州都设有分支机构的银行。在数字化大潮下，为什么网点仍然如此重要？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO
So we didn't double down. What we did is, if you look at it, we are also consolidating certain branches. Where there's logic, we should consolidate. And I'm a real skeptic about that, okay? When I got the bank when they were consolidating, clicks not bricks. They were closing branches to make a $1 million a year profit. They would have made $1 million a year profit for the last 20 years. I mean, what in the hell they were thinking? And Chase was doing the same thing.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
其实我们并没有“加码”，而是同时在整合部分网点。合理的地方就该合并。我对盲目关店持怀疑态度。当年我接手银行时，业内流行“点击取代砖瓦”，为了每年省 100 万美元就关店。可过去 20 年他们原本可以年年赚这 100 万！真不知道当初怎么想的，连大通也干过同样的事。

So it might -- you be very analytical about what you close, why you close it, where you can keep. I give you some very specific examples that I stopped closing the branch and they act like I'm interfering. I'd say, "No, I'm not interfering. Don't close that branch." I'm not going to give you all examples. I don't want to tell my competition why. And also, I'd say, "If you close that branch, you know who's going to open there. Wintrust, Cap One. Like tomorrow, take the lease, move in."
所以必须用数据说话：为什么关、关哪家、哪家该保留？我举过具体例子：我叫停关店，他们觉得我插手。我说，“不，我不是干预，别关这家。”具体例子就不便细说，免得让竞争对手知道原因。我还告诉他们：“你若关掉这家，明天 Wintrust 或 Capital One 就会签下租约搬进去。”

Actually, I was -- I think it was at a Bernstein conference once. And I was in the back, listening to, who's the guy who built Commerce Bank?
实际上，有一次我在伯恩斯坦的会议后排听演讲——是谁创建了 Commerce Bank 来着？

Unknown Analyst
未知分析师

Vernon Hill?

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官

Yes, Vernon Hill. Vernon Hill was up here. And he's doing a flip chart, a slide presentation for you all, and he was making fun of Chase. And he said, "They closed this branch, I moved in. They closed that branch, I moved right in." And when he was walking down, I said to him, "Vernon, that will never ever happen again."
是的，弗农·希尔。刚才弗农在台上，用翻页板做幻灯演示，拿大通开玩笑。他说：“他们关了这家网点，我就搬进去；他们再关那家，我也立刻进驻。”他下台时我对他说：“弗农，这种事绝不会再发生。”

And I put in place a rule at the time that you couldn't close a branch without my permission. Because they would say, "Well, you can move to the second floor." He took 100% of our consumer business. 100%. Even if there's a Chase branch a block away. "Well, they will just go to the other branch." No they didn't. They wanted that branch.
那时我立下一条规矩：未经我许可不得关店。有人说：“你可以把业务搬到二楼。”结果他把我们零售业务全抢走了，100%！即便街区另一头还有一家大通分行，他们也不去——客户就是要那一家。

And of course, he did other things that got the good service. So -- and then we opened branches, too, because there's always places you should be opening branches, always a place you should want to gain some share. And the 48 states is -- allows us to do other things in the states and is kind of a foothold. And we have a strategy around that, which I think she alluded to a little bit of covering more people within driving distance. A little bit more rural. Certain -- and there are certain different types of branches.
当然，他在服务上也做得很好。随后我们也开新网点，因为总有该开店、该抢份额的地方。遍布 48 个州给了我们更多操作空间，也算落脚点。我们有相应战略，她提到过，要让更多人开车可达，稍微覆盖更偏远地区，还会有不同类型的网点。

So we like our branch strategy. I think she said that 900,000 people visit a day. So remember, you don't have branches because you have a strategy department, where you have a CEO, where you have marketing people or salespeople making statements. You have branches, you have customers who like them. People like to visit their money. That's what it is. And the branches, of course, have changed their nature over time, more advisory than operational, et cetera.
因此我们很看好自家的网点战略。我记得她说每天有 90 万人到店。记住，你之所以有网点，不是因为有战略部或 CEO、市场人员在那里发话，而是因为客户喜欢网点——人们喜欢“探望”自己的钱。网点的职能也在变化，更多是顾问性质，而非纯操作。

And we can always adjust the fleet. So if you said to me, well, what if you're wrong? We can adjust the fleet very quickly, okay? It's not -- it literally wouldn't be that big a deal between leases and selling stuff and modernizing some of the branches.
而且我们随时能调节网点“车队”。要是你问万一判断错了怎么办？我们可以非常快地调整：租约、出售资产、升级改造，实际影响并不大。

Unknown Analyst
未知分析师

Things worked out well for you better than Vernon Hill, it seems like, because the other side of the balance sheet really...
看起来你们的结果比弗农·希尔要好，因为资产负债表另一端确实……

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官

I used to -- again, I would look at people. Like I know Vernon, I still see his stuff. But you always look at every competitor and say, "What are they doing that's better?" And they -- remember they have those little machines that would put your coins together and gum for kids and biscuits for the dogs and more hours. And customer service works. So he did do a lot of things right, and you should always learn from that.
我过去——我会观察别人。我认识弗农，也关注他的做法。你要时刻看竞争对手哪些做得更好：他们有把硬币分类的小机器、给孩子的口香糖、给狗的饼干、延长营业时间——客户服务确实有效。他有许多做对的地方，我们都应当学习。

When I got to Bank One, they were saying, Jamie, it's going to be cost efficiency and stuff like that. And that they would get rid of the coffee, the lollipops and the dog biscuits in the branches. Well, if you go visit a branch, I mean, you could see dogs pulling their masters into the branch to get that biscuit. I mean -- and they even would come into the drive-through, and their tails will be wagging and they send a biscuit through the pneumatic tube thing. They're like -- and you don't get rid of stuff like that. And some people like to visit the branch because they just are lonely.
我刚到 Bank One 时，他们说“杰米，要节约成本”，结果把网点里的咖啡、棒棒糖、狗饼干都砍掉。可你去网点看看，狗会拖着主人进门就为了那块饼干，甚至开车道里也摇尾巴等着气动管送饼干。这样的东西不能砍！而且有些人去网点只是因为孤独。

And just you got to be really thoughtful how you run a business. I don't think it's all about math sometimes. It's not. And there's some wonderful stories. We had a kid killed in a branch yesterday with a gas explosion in Youngtown. So there's a terrible thing. But when the branches are human, they deal with customers.
所以经营业务必须用心，不是什么都用数学公式衡量。有些故事很动人——昨天扬斯敦一家网点因煤气爆炸导致一名孩子身亡，这是极其悲痛的。但正因网点有人情味，它们才能真正服务客户。

I go to these community branches. If you haven't been to one, there's one in Harlem, there's one in Fordham Road in Bronx. Go to the community branch, sit there for 1.5 hours, watch the people walking in and out and tell me it doesn't work.
我常去那些社区网点。若你没去过，哈莱姆有一家，布朗克斯福德汉姆路也有一家。去坐 90 分钟，看人们进进出出，然后告诉我这模式行不通？

And some of you guys used to do those branch visits. So what analysts does them? Someone does...
以前你们一些人也会到网点调研。现在还有哪位分析师在做？有人在……

Unknown Analyst

Today, not as much anymore. But...
如今不怎么做了，不过……

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官

\[ They've shown rights ] every year about their branch visits. Anyway. And I read that analyst report in detail because they're learning about what the people do this well and not well. I read John, too, but he's very good at what he does.
他们每年都会展示自己的网点走访报告。无论如何，我都把那份分析报告细读一遍，因为里面总结了哪些做得好、哪些不足。我也看约翰的报告，他在这方面也很出色。

Unknown Analyst
Not that report. But you've got the goal to go from 11% consumer retail share to 15%. Some of that seems baked in the cake from some of the investments you've made and all of that is a multiyear.
未知分析师
不是那份报告。不过，你们的目标是将零售消费者份额从 11% 提升到 15%。其中一部分似乎已经因为之前的投资而“板上钉钉”，而且这是一个多年期的过程。

James Dimon  Chairman & CEO
Yes. They're all -- you actually showed the branch growth that we've been around for 15 years. The branch growth is only 5 years old, so you can build in what you think is going to happen down the road. But obviously, we want to cover more people, cover more accounts, more product, more deepening.
詹姆斯·戴蒙  董事长兼首席执行官
是的——正如你们展示的那样，我们的网点网络已存在 15 年，而真正的网点扩张只是在过去 5 年。我认为你们可以据此推算未来会发生什么。显然，我们想覆盖更多人群、更多账户、更多产品，并加深客户关系。

We announced today that -- I think it's been announced. If it hasn't been announced, I'm announcing it now. That our self-directed investing, we've added fractional shares. We've added a better kind of research. We've got 5 or 6 different things. One day, that self-directed investing will be really good. And then you're going to see us really push it. And then you're going to see us really push it. And then you're going to see -- because we have competitive advantage on it. And so I get very excited about that. When you can do certain things in Chase that you can maybe -- Chase can do it.
今天我们宣布——我想已经发布了，如果还没，那我现在宣布——我们的自主投资平台新增了零股交易功能，也上线了更好的研究工具，总共有五六项新功能。有一天，这个平台会非常出色，届时你们将看到我们大力推广，因为这是我们的竞争优势所在，这让我十分振奋。某些事情，只有大通能做到。

I also think our order match system will better than payment for order flow. I'm going to try to prove that to Mikael Grubb over here. I can probably prove it, that you're going through our order-match systems, and we give our consumers the same order-match effectiveness that we give our big wholesale clients, okay? So payment for order flow has a deceptive characteristics to it. And so I think of those advantages that you're going to see us try to take advantage of soon in self-directed.
我还认为，我们的撮合系统会比“订单流支付”模式更好。我准备向这边的 Mikael Grubb 证明这一点——通过我们的撮合系统，散户可以享受与大型批发客户同等的成交效率。而“订单流支付”本身带有误导性。因此，在自主投资业务中，你们很快就会看到我们利用这些优势。

Chase Offers, Chase Media. I think if you have a Chase account -- how many of you have Chase accounts? How many of you have Sapphire Card? Okay. But you're going to get -- you get offers at the bottom of your account, the bottom your Sapphire card, you go online, you're going to get more and more highly relevant stuff. It will take us a while, but we're building the systems to give you some really neat stuff.
再说 Chase Offers 和 Chase Media。如果你们有 Chase 账户——有多少人持有 Chase 账户？有多少人拥有 Sapphire 卡？好。从账户页面、Sapphire 卡账单到底部到线上渠道，你们会陆续收到越来越精准的优惠。虽然需要时间，但我们正在搭建系统，为你们提供非常酷的内容。

And also, Chase Media allows other people to come in. And if you like golf or you -- and we make it consumer-friendly. So we're not just bombarding you with -- which we do a little bit today with stuff that is irrelevant.
此外，Chase Media 也能让第三方加入。如果你喜欢高尔夫之类的，我们会让服务更贴近消费者需求，而不是像现在那样偶尔向你推送一些无关紧要的信息。

I tell the people, when you give me offers to have my nails done downtown, really, you think I'm going to like drive downtown? I don't get my nails done. I'm not -- I don't even go downtown for a meal anymore. It takes too long.
我常对团队说，你们给我推送市中心做指甲的优惠，真觉得我会开车去？我从不做美甲，甚至连吃饭都懒得去市中心，那太费时间了。

Unknown Analyst
So on that topic, AI came up quite a bit at the Investor Day. And you talked -- you said it's already interwoven into many of the businesses, having an impact at JPMorgan today. Again, for kind of the broader audience, what are some of the examples of biggest opportunities banks have to leverage AI?
未知分析师
关于这个话题，AI 在投资者日被频繁提及。您说过它已经深度融入多条业务线，并在今日的摩根大通产生影响。为更广泛的听众考虑，银行利用 AI 的最大机遇有哪些典型例子？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO
I think the best way is to stop talking about what it's going to do. It's already here. We've been using it since 2012. We started our own department in 2013. And to me, as a management thing, every time we have a management -- I didn't go yesterday, Daniel Pinto did it. But every time there's any kind of review, it's also what you're doing on analytics? Think of AI. It was true, by the way, before AI. It was analytics. We're always doing deep analytics and deep math on credit, market and underwriting. And now it's just a whole another level of that where you can find correlations and things you couldn't -- the human eye couldn't do.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
我认为别再谈 AI 将来能做什么——它已经在这里了。自 2012 年起我们就在使用 AI，2013 年成立了专门部门。对我而言，作为管理层，每次经营评审——昨天我没去，由 Daniel Pinto 主持——都会问：你们在分析领域做了什么？想想 AI。在 AI 出现之前，我们就在信用、市场、承销等领域做深度分析和复杂数学。如今这更上一层楼，能发现人眼看不到的关联。

So I think we say there are 400 use cases. Probably by the end of this year, maybe 800 as management teams are getting better. It's not understanding AI, it's understanding how it works. But you say, my God, you mean you can do this for me? And so we use it for prospect marketing; offers; travel; note taking; idea generation; hedging; equity -- hedging and the equity trading floors; anticipating, when people call, what they're calling in for. Answering customer -- this is on the wholesale side, but answering customer requests.
目前我们有大约 400 个用例，到了年底也许会增至 800，因为管理团队愈发成熟。关键不是理解 AI 这个概念，而是理解其运作方式。你会惊叹：“天哪，它还能替我做这些？”于是我们把 AI 用于潜客营销、优惠推送、差旅安排、会议记录、创意生成、对冲、股票及交易对冲、预测来电原因并在批发端回应客户需求等场景。

And then we have -- and we're going to be building agents who are not just answers the question, it actually takes action sometimes. And this is just going to blow people's minds. It will affect every job, every application, every database. And it will make people highly more efficient. Like a lot of you clicking away, taking notes, you won't have to do that because it'll -- you can just summarize what Jamie said. You push a button and you don't have to wait all that time. And it's just powerful stuff.
接下来我们将构建的代理不仅能回答问题，甚至能直接执行操作，这将颠覆人们的认知。它会影响每一份工作、每一个应用、每一个数据库，并显著提升效率。比如你们现在拼命敲键盘做笔记，未来无需如此——系统能即时总结 Jamie 的发言，按一下按钮就完成，非常强大。

And we use it for risk and fraud recognition. And bad guys are going to use it, so we have to use it to counter the bad guys. We have to use it to get better and better in cyber.
我们还将 AI 用于风险和欺诈识别。既然坏人也会利用 AI，我们就必须用它来对抗犯罪，并不断提升网络安全能力。

So it's going to be everywhere. And I think for smaller banks, too, it will be offered through AWS or through Fiserv or FIS. So it isn't like they won't have any access to that.
AI 将无处不在。我认为，小型银行也可通过 AWS、Fiserv、FIS 等渠道获取，因此它们同样能接触到 AI。

And so I think we're in good shape. But it also creates some disruption maybe in payment or something, where people use it to build something better, faster that we just didn't do or something.
因此我认为我们处于良好位置。但 AI 也可能在支付等领域带来颠覆，其他人用它构建更好更快的方案，而我们此前尚未涉足。

So -- and to me, it's just part of the management team now. We have someone on the management team, very experienced. Some of you may know Teresa Heitsenrether, who is now responsible for data and analytics because they're directly related. Getting to the cloud, private or public, is directly related to access the compute power you need and to go across all the database in the way you never used to do it before. And then there's a mirror inside credit card, consumer, payments, trading, banking, to do the same kind of work. And we're just getting smarter and better at it.
在我看来， AI 已成为管理团队的一部分。我们的高管团队中新加入了经验丰富的 Teresa Heitsenrether 负责数据与分析，因为两者直接相关。迁移至公有或私有云与获取所需算力、跨数据库处理数据息息相关。信用卡、零售、支付、交易、银行各业务线内部也有对应团队做同类工作，我们正变得越来越聪明、越来越强。

But in the meantime, what I don't know is the pace by which all these things will happen because we're probably adding headcount at AI for quite a while. So you'll see our cost going up, not down. We think there are benefits. We do try to measure ROI and NPV. In some cases, we do. In some cases, we don't. I think it's like a waste of time. But it is super real. And it's a continuation of the deep analytics we were doing years ago.
与此同时，我无法确定这些变革的推进速度，因为在相当长时间里我们可能会继续扩充 AI 团队，所以成本会上升而非下降。我们相信这带来收益，并尝试衡量 ROI 和 NPV；有时能测算，有时无法精算——我认为过度计算意义不大。但 AI 绝对真实存在，它只是我们多年前深度分析工作的延续。

Unknown Analyst
Maybe you could talk a little bit about the importance of some of the...
未知分析师
也许您可以稍微谈一下其中某些事项的重要性……

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
I think we gave -- some of them gave some very specific examples at Investor Day. The KYC cost down 50%, 80% faster. And that was like literally taking one person who is an AI expert saying attack this problem. And they just attacked it once. Wait till they attack it four times. And so think of when you ever deal with a bank, and like why is this happening that way? We should get -- OSAT should be going way up with this.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
我想我们已经——其中一些人在投资者日给出了非常具体的例子。KYC 成本下降了 50%，速度提高了 80%。那就像让一位 AI 专家单枪匹马地解决这个问题，他们只解决了一次。等他们解决四次的时候看看会怎样。再想想当你与银行打交道时，为什么事情会这样发生？我们的客户满意度（OSAT）应该因此大幅提升。

Unknown Analyst
So you've been doing it...
未知分析师
所以你们一直在这样做……

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
And it will eliminate jobs, too, by the way. So in my view, don't be afraid of that, get ahead of that. I mean, a management team shouldn't be putting its head in the sand. They should be observing and thinking about what it might mean because if you're ahead of it, you can save your people a lot of aggravation. You're not going to wake up one day and you have to lay off 50,000 people. You can build it into your plans. And that's where I always say attrition becomes your friend. You do have 20% attrition at a lot of jobs. And therefore, that's 40% over 2 years. So you can plan, retrain, et cetera, if you think ahead a little bit.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
顺便说一句，这也会消除一些工作岗位。因此，在我看来，不要害怕这一点，要走在前面。我的意思是，管理团队不应该把头埋在沙子里。他们应该观察并思考这意味着什么，因为如果你走在前面，就能为员工省去很多麻烦。你不会某天醒来就不得不裁员 5 万人。你可以把它纳入计划。这也是为什么我总说员工流失会成为你的朋友。很多岗位的流失率为 20%，因此 2 年就是 40%。如果你稍微提前思考一下，就可以进行规划、再培训等等。

Unknown Analyst
未知分析师

So can you talk a little bit more about these adjacent businesses and how important they could be to the future for you? You've got a travel booking portal. You mentioned Chase Media Solutions. What's driving the opportunities there? Is it technology?
那么，您能否再多谈谈这些相关业务，以及它们对你们未来的重要性？你们拥有一个旅行预订门户，还提到了 Chase Media Solutions。是什么在推动这些机会？是技术吗？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官

In every business -- and I don't know if adjacency is the right word. In every business, the goal is do a better job for your customer. See it from the point of view of your customer. So in a lot of cases, just making it better, faster, quicker, cheaper. We add a lot of services for nothing. So think of today, when you go online, over the years, you have Zelle, you've got free trading, you've got more data, you got more analytics, you got free wealth planning, you've got free -- so some of it's just doing a better job for the client.
在每一项业务中——我不确定“相关性”这个词是否合适——目标都是为客户做得更好。从客户的视角看问题。在很多情况下，就是让服务更好、更快、更便捷、更便宜。我们免费增加了很多服务。想想现在你线上银行，多年来，你能用 Zelle、免佣金交易、更多数据、更多分析、免费的财富规划，等等——所以其中一部分只是为了给客户提供更好的服务。

Some of it may create revenue opportunities. So Chase offers, Chase travel where if you book through us, and we can offer you better deals, we also can earn the travel commission effectively. So we're both doing a better job for you and we create another revenue stream. And that's true in every business.
其中有些还能带来收入机会。比如 Chase 推出的 Chase Travel，如果你通过我们预订，我们可以给你更好的优惠，同时也能赚取旅行佣金。这样既为你提供了更好的服务，也为我们创造了新的收入来源。这在所有业务中都成立。

I always tell people, in a lot of wholesale businesses, we actually price by the drink. You charge a little bit for everything. A lot of consumer businesses, they're bundled. I just gave you an example about your account so -- but some aren't. And so -- but anywhere you have data that you can use to make a client happier or offer them something they want, you can maybe charge for or not charge for it. But think of even in -- I may not even want to tell you some of these things. There's certain areas where we can anticipate something and offer the clients something better, quicker, cheaper, faster, and it's better for us too.
我常告诉别人，许多批发业务是“按杯定价”的，每项服务都收一点费。很多消费金融业务则是捆绑式的——我刚刚用你的账户举例，但也有不是捆绑的。凡是你拥有数据、能利用它让客户更满意或提供他们想要的东西时，你都可以选择收费或免费。但想想看，甚至在某些我都不想透露的领域，我们能够提前预判并给客户提供更好、更快、更便宜的服务，这对我们也更有利。

And so we -- obviously, we have the new compliance and regulatory stuff like that, but it's endless. And with our data, like I tell people, we know-- we might know where you eat at night on a Friday night, that you like Chinese food. So maybe the small new Chinese restaurant one block from you. Every Friday night, we'll offer you \$30 off or even a free meal to get you to try it.
当然，我们还有新的合规和监管要求，但机会是无穷无尽的。凭借我们的数据，就像我说的，我们可能知道你周五晚上在哪儿用餐，知道你喜欢中餐。那也许在你家一个街区外有家新的中餐馆。每个周五晚上，我们给你 30 美元折扣，甚至一顿免费餐来吸引你去尝试。

That has to come through our data and a small business will be very happy and the client may be very happy. Well, that's kind of a win-win, right? And so that could be for big companies. It could be for small company. We have deals with some big companies already, and we could partner with people. And so it's anywhere.
这一切都基于我们的数据。小商家会很高兴，客户也会很高兴——这就是双赢，对吧？这种模式既适用于大公司，也适用于小公司。我们已经与一些大企业达成合作，也可以与其他伙伴合作，它几乎无处不在。

Small business, I think there's -- I've always looked at small business as an area that we will be -- we should be able to do more to make their lives easier. A lot more. And you see it with things like Toast. But the things that we can do to or working with the Toast, embedding payments or something like that.
小企业——我一直认为这是一个我们能够、也应该做更多事情来简化其运营的领域，远远不止现在这样。你可以从像 Toast 这样的例子看到端倪。我们可以直接为其提供、或与 Toast 等合作伙伴一起提供嵌入式支付等功能。

Medical, let's say, it's going to be a huge area, medical payments. So each year, we go through each one, and we expect the teams to be thinking adjacencies, data, customer service, OSAT scores that are faster, quicker, cheaper.
再比如医疗支付，这将是一个庞大的领域。每一年，我们都会逐项审视，并要求团队持续思考相关业务、数据、客户服务，以及如何让 OSAT（客户满意度）变得更高、更快、更便宜。

Unknown Analyst
So in your Chairman's letter, you talked about the role of private credit. And maybe just give us a little bit of thoughts on how much of that is a threat to banks, is an opportunity for banks, a little bit of both?
未知分析师
在您的董事长信中，您谈到了私募信贷的作用。能否谈谈这对银行来说在多大程度上是威胁、在多大程度上是机会，抑或两者兼而有之？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
It's a little bit of both. So first of all, I'm trying to be neutral -- not neutral, but like really assess it as opposed to just have a knee-jerk reaction to private credit. I already mentioned there is this issue about stuff going private. So private companies, private equity, private credit. And that's -- there's a policy issue that's good for the country in the long run. We're the most transparent market the world has ever seen. By that transparency is rule of law, research disclosures, ratings, it's not just one thing. And it's also access to investments.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
可以说两者兼具。首先，我希望以评估的态度而非膝跳反应来看待私募信贷。我已提到“资产私有化”的现象：私营公司、私募股权、私募信贷。从长远看，这里存在对国家有利的政策议题。我们拥有全球最透明的市场，这种透明性体现在法治、研究披露、评级等方方面面，也体现在投资的可达性上，而不仅仅是某一方面。

So as they go private, there's less and less access. And then you have to ask the question about do you want to give access to retail clients of some of these less liquid products? Well, the answer is probably. But don't act like there's no risk with that. So I will make a prediction on that one.
随着企业走向私有化，普通投资者的参与度越来越低。接着就要问：是否要让散户接触这些流动性较差的产品？答案大概是“要”。但别假装其中没有风险。我在这方面做个预测。

So now private credit, yes, it's in some way, there's a lot of good stuff. These folks came forward, direct lending, private credit. Like they'll sign a unitranche deal. They will do the covenants differently. They'll moderate it, modify it for the owner or stuff like that. They know the business. They might be a long-term investor. They're not going to be asking the business to do stupid short-term things to meet covenants.
至于私募信贷，确实有很多优势。这些机构提供直接放贷、私募信贷，例如签署单一担保贷款（unitranche）协议；它们会用不同的方式设置契约条款，为所有者进行调整或修改；它们了解业务，可能是长期投资者，不会要求企业为了满足契约而做出愚蠢的短期行为。

It could be good owners. It could be a good thing. And the fact they could stay private for longer is probably a good thing. The fact you could raise private capital when you're a private company is probably a good thing. The fact that you can get -- so that's all good.
它们可能成为好的所有者，也可能带来好处。企业能更长时间保持私有化或许是好事；私营公司能够筹集私募资本也是好事；能够获得资金——这些都是好事。

But not all the people doing it are good. And so I think some of these people are brilliant. I mean, I know them all, we bank a lot of them, they're clients of ours, but they're not all good. And the problem in financial markets are often caused by the not-good one, the people who make the mistakes in that you have illiquid products, maybe they're not properly marked, they have not been stress tested.
但并非所有从业者都很好。我认为其中一些人非常聪明——我都认识，我们为很多人提供银行服务，他们也是我们的客户——但并非人人如此。金融市场的问题往往是那些“不好”的参与者造成的：他们持有流动性不佳的产品，可能估值不当，也没有经过压力测试。

Do people really fully understand what I said about interest rates affecting what these things are worth? Do they? And if a little old lady finds out that she can't get her money back. And there may have been disclosures there saying this money is locked up for 5 years. But you know what? Retail clients tend to circle the block and call their senators and congressmen and could be hell to pay.
人们真的完全理解利率变化如何影响这些资产价值吗？如果一位老太太发现自己拿不回钱怎么办？文件里也许披露了“资金锁定 5 年”，但散户往往会到处投诉、给参议员和议员打电话，后果可能相当严重。

And the transparency around the marks and the lack of research, the lack of rating sometimes. Even -- I've seen a couple of these deals that were rated by a rating agency, and I have to confess, it shocked me what they got rated. So it reminds me a little bit of mortgages, okay? And then they're going to blame the banks on the mortgages. And so the rating agency rating them. They said they're AA or AAA, but they effectively weren't because the analysis about their sub-prime component.
估值缺乏透明度、缺少研究、缺少评级。有几笔交易得到了评级机构的评级，我必须承认，评级结果让我震惊。这让我想起了抵押贷款危机。届时大家又会把抵押贷款问题归咎于银行；评级机构给出的 AA 或 AAA 实际上并不名副其实，因为评级分析忽视了次贷成分。

So there may be problems here. I don't think it's systemic, but I do expect there to be problems. I also expect there will be problems when you mark these things, like they have not been really tested. During COVID, if you -- during those really bad months, they wrote down, if you remember correctly, some of these things are written down 10%. I would tell you the number should have been 20%, okay? So -- but that only lasted for a month. What if that lasts for a year? And what are the discrepancies? You had this with private equity, discrepancy that one person marks a loan and another.
因此这里可能会出现问题。我不认为这是系统性风险，但确实预期会有麻烦。我还预计在给这些资产估值时会出问题，因为它们从未真正被检验过。疫情期间最糟糕的几个月里，如果你还记得，有些资产被下调了 10%。我认为应该下调 20%。但那只持续了一个月。如果持续一年呢？差异又会如何？私募股权也有类似情况：不同人对同一笔贷款的估值出现偏差。

And now they're coming closer. We've seen a whole bunch of dealers go from the private market to the syndicated market. You know why? It's 200 basis points cheaper. And when rates went up, it matters. Maybe it mattered less at low rates. So we're going to compete. We can do direct lending off our balance sheet. We can do direct lending and syndicate it. So we -- and we also want to be agnostic, which is you're the client. We'll do A, we'll do B, we'll do C. We'll tell you the pros and cons of each.
现在两边的差距正在缩小。很多做市商从私募市场转向银团市场——为什么？便宜 200 个基点。当利率上升时，这就很重要，在低利率环境下可能影响较小。所以我们会参与竞争。我们可以用自有资产负债表进行直接放贷，也可以直接放贷后再发起银团。我们希望保持中立：你是客户，我们可以做 A、做 B、做 C，并向你说明各自的优缺点。

So we're in the mix. And we haven't yet -- a lot of these people raise these big funds and stuff like that. We haven't done that yet. And what asset management does is completely separate. This is all about what our Investment Bank is going to do, and middle market, to compete. So we're comfortable we can compete.
因此我们身处竞争之中。迄今为止，很多机构已经募了大基金，我们还没这么做。资产管理的业务完全分开。这里讨论的是我们的投资银行以及中端市场业务如何竞争。我们有信心能够竞争。

Unknown Analyst
So two updates on your business lines...
未知分析师
关于你们业务线的两个最新进展……

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
By the way, with our balance sheet and capital, we can put \$100 billion into it, \$200 billion. But I'm not afraid about that if you think it's good credit.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
顺便说一句，凭借我们的资产负债表和资本，我们可以投入 1 000 亿、2 000 亿美元。如果你认为资质良好，我对此并不担心。

The other thing that always is surprises me. It's two -- right -- I don't know what the price is today because it literally changes every day. It's 200 basis points more expensive. And for JPMorgan, I kind of like the 200 basis points, and we get other revenues.
还有一件总让我惊讶的事：它——嗯——我不知道今天的价格，因为每天都在变；贵了 200 个基点。对摩根大通来说，我倒喜欢这 200 个基点，我们还能获得其他收入。

And one last problem. When the s\*\*\* hits the fan, and it will one day, we don't know when, there will be a lot of stranded borrowers because some of these people simply cannot roll over loans like we would because they have a fiduciary responsibility to book the new loan at par on their balance sheet. To do that when things are bad, they're going to have to book -- then it's got to be a 13% yield, and the company won't be able afford it.
最后还有一个问题。当糟糕情况袭来——迟早会来，只是不知何时——会有大量借款人陷入困境，因为这些机构无法像我们那样展期贷款；它们有受托责任必须以面值入账新贷款。要在不景气时做到这一点，就得把收益率做成 13%，而企业根本负担不起。

So there'll be people saying I can't help you. And that may be a little bit of a problem, too, particularly if it starts to affect smaller businesses, who call their congressmen also.
于是就会有人说“我帮不了你”。这也可能成为麻烦，尤其当它开始影响到小企业时——他们也会给国会议员打电话。

Unknown Analyst
Can we a quick update on the build-out of the consumer bank in the U.K. and Europe?
未知分析师
能否请您快速更新一下在英国和欧洲扩展零售银行业务的进展？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
Yes, it's generally going -- I think we have -- I think we said we have \$16 billion of deposits. It's generally going to plan. It's a good product. People like it. If you actually go there, they're good at it. They do like it.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
是的，总体进展顺利——我记得我们说过，目前大约有 160 亿美元存款。整体按计划推进。产品本身很好，人们喜欢它；你若亲自去看看，他们做得很不错，客户确实喜欢。

It was always -- it's always been a skunkworks things for us because digital banking may make us able to do consumer in Europe. And it was never just Chase U.K. So we wanted the Chase U.K. right before we attack another country or something like that.
这一直是我们的“地下实验室”项目，因为数字银行让我们有机会在欧洲开展零售业务。它从来不只是 Chase U.K.；我们想先把 Chase U.K. 打磨好，然后再进军其他国家或类似市场。

And there are other things that we have to deal with. We have ring fencing, what products we add or don't add, how we look at the profitability a little bit. But it's generally going according to plan. I think companies should always be -- we have other skunkworks that are there which you don't know about. I think we should always be doing stuff like that. So I'm optimistic about it.
我们还得处理其他事项，比如防火墙（ring-fencing）、新增或不新增哪些产品、如何评估盈利性等。但总体仍按计划进行。我认为公司应始终保持这种状态——我们还有其他你们不知道的“地下实验室”项目。我觉得我们应该一直做类似的事，所以我对它很乐观。

And at the point it gets to breakeven, which I think we told you it's going to be 4 years from now -- rather 3 years from now. Once it gets effectively to breakeven, then we have something we can toy around with for a decade. And I don't know why we couldn't compete with any digital bank out there if they're making money. And some of them aren't now, you have a bunch of them actually making money. Some of it because they're putting risky assets in the balance sheet, but some are making money not doing that.
一旦达到盈亏平衡——我记得我们说过，大约再过 4 年，准确说 3 年——我们就拥有一个可以折腾十年的平台。我不明白如果他们能赚钱，为什么我们不能与任何数字银行竞争。现在有些数字银行挣不到钱，也有一批确实在赚钱的；其中一些是因为把高风险资产放上资产负债表，但也有人没这样做仍能赚钱。

Unknown Analyst
And can we get an update, too, in terms of the efforts to integrate a wealth offering into the consumer business at Chase? What you're doing there and how you feel that's going?
未知分析师
那么，您能否也更新一下将理财服务整合进 Chase 零售业务的进展？目前在做哪些工作，感觉如何？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
It's going great. I mean, God, we started only a couple of years -- I forgot how many years ago, but it's \$200 billion. It's almost -- I think it is probably close to \$1 trillion with the First Republic deal. We're adding Chase Wealth Management in the branches. We're getting better at it. We're enhancing the products, their services.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
进展非常好。天哪，我们才启动几年——具体多少我都记不清了，但规模已达 2 000 亿美元。加上收购 First Republic，我想总额接近 1 万亿美元。我们正把 Chase Wealth Management 引入各分行，能力不断提升，产品和服务也在持续增强。

Our market share is small in that segment, and we have very big aspirations. And like Charlie was talking about, it's different distribution. We have Chase Wealth Management, self-directed investing, private banking. We do not do with a third-party, with a co-independent stuff. But -- and we have JPMorgan advisors now, which is kind of the creme of the creme of how we handle the top financial advisers there, who are great. And we're getting better at doing that.
该领域我们的市场份额仍然很小，但雄心很大。正如 Charlie 所言，分销渠道各异——我们拥有 Chase Wealth Management、自主投资平台、私人银行业务；不与第三方做所谓“共同独立”模式。同时我们设立了 JPMorgan Advisors，聚集顶尖理财顾问，运营水平日益提升。

And I tell them that we want the best people, best products, best services, best comp, best research, access to JPMorgan for their clients who need certain private banking services or investment banking services and there's overlap. So -- and we're trying to -- JPMorgan private client branches, which will be 20. And if something like that works, it can be 100 or 200 down the road. I think they will work, by the way. It's just a different way of running the business. So we have to make sure it works with the customer, not for us.
我要求他们做到最好：最优秀的人才、产品、服务、薪酬、研究，并为需要私人银行或投行业务的客户接入 JPMorgan。我们计划设立 20 家 JPMorgan 私人客户网点，若模式成功，未来可扩至 100 或 200 家。我相信这一方式可行——但必须真正满足客户需求，而非单纯对我们有利。

Unknown Analyst
Okay. We've got a couple of more minutes. Maybe just the ROTCE target of 17%. You've been doing 20% ROTCE for a few years, talking about overearning a bit on deposit margin. Just how do you contextualize the through the cycle 17%? And where you might be over and underearning today in different areas?
未知分析师
好的，我们还有几分钟。关于 17% 的 ROTCE 目标：过去几年你们做到 20%，并表示存款利差带来一些超额收益。你如何看待“全周期” 17% 这一水平？目前在哪些领域可能赚得过多或过少？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
Well, I mean, I do think we're overearning. We want to be honest about that, on NII a little bit, on credit a little bit. Credit, shall I use the word benign? I'm going to use another word. It's the best it's ever been. Everwhere, any time, ever. Middle market losses have been 0 for years.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
确实有些超额收益。净息差略高、信贷成本略低。信贷表现——用“温和”都不够，它是有史以来最好；中端市场贷款多年零损失。

Credit card, if we sat here with credit card, which obviously is a big number, we would have told you, I think that through the cycle is 3.5 or 3.75. And if you ask, what's the lowest it can get in the best quarter ever? I would have said 2.5, 2.25. It hit 1.5, and because the government gave \$6 billion to people.
若看信用卡——规模很大——长期损失率应在 3.5%–3.75%。最佳季度理论最低 2.5%–2.25%，结果跌到 1.5%，因为政府向公众发放了 60 亿美元。

And so large corporate has been very good. It's that -- you can see it in credit spreads, but middle market has been very good. Mortgage has been 0. Auto has normalized a little bit. So it has to normalize. And NII, we're not quite sure and stuff like that.
大型企业贷款表现也很好——信用利差能看出——中端市场同样优秀。按揭损失为 0；汽车贷款略有正常化，这终究会回归正常。净息收入未来如何还有不确定性。

So -- and then there's competition. JPMorgan did benefit a little bit from COVID and other things, but the competition is fully back. And you -- and I spoke about Wells Fargo has got good bones. They're getting their act together. Goldman Sachs has been kicking our b\*\*\* in certain areas. I mean, you got to like -- you can't just act like the world is a static place.
竞争也在加剧。疫情期间 JPMorgan 获益有限，但对手已全面回归。富国银行底子扎实，正在整顿；高盛在某些领域狠狠“教育”了我们。世界不是静止的。

So -- and then Basel's going to add more capital. So roughly 17%, still there. The best chart I like is the one that Jeremy Barnum showed you that shows potential outcomes under various adverse scenarios, which is what I always worried about. I want to earn good money. Our best year ever, our finest year ever, '09, our ROTCE was 6%. That was the best year we ever had. I mean if we could earn 7%, 8% in really terrible times, God, I'd love to -- then the business has become a really good business. Remember, a lot of companies went bankrupt.
再加上巴塞尔新规要求更多资本，因此 17% 仍是合理目标。我最喜欢 Jeremy Barnum 展示的那张图，列出多种逆境情景下的潜在结果——这是我最担心的。我们要在艰难时期仍赚钱。2009 年是我们“最好”的一年，ROTCE 仅 6%。如果在极端环境仍能赚 7%–8%，那就很棒了——别忘了，当时很多公司破产。

So I did this -- I made Mikael Grubb do this when we have our -- look at, if you take who the 12 competitors are in our proxy, how many earned more than 17% in a year in the last 10 years? That's 120 company years. How many earned 17% or more? I think it was 7 times. JPMorgan was 3 of them. Goldman was 1 or 2, Morgan Stanley is 1 or 2, and Cap One was 1 or 2 or something like that. 7 times. How many earned less than 6% in a year? I think the number is 30 or 40, okay?
我让 Mikael Grubb 统计：年报披露的 12 家同业，在过去 10 年（共 120 个“公司-年份”）里，ROTCE > 17% 的只有 7 次——JPMorgan 占 3 次，高盛 1–2 次，摩根士丹利 1–2 次，Capital One 1–2 次。ROTCE < 6% 的年份约 30–40 次。

So let's not act like we're going to up that target, okay? We're in a competitive environment, okay? And so -- and then I also went back to 10 years before that, how many earned over 17% in the 10 years before that? It was like 30 or 40 out of 120 years. And how many earned under 6%? It was like 30 or 40. But of the 30 -- of the people who earned over 17%, most of them went bankrupt.
所以别指望我们调高目标。竞争激烈。我又往前追溯 10 年，在之前的 120 个公司-年份里，ROTCE > 17% 约 30–40 次，< 6% 也 30–40 次。但 > 17% 的公司大多数后来破产了。

So you got to be really careful when you analyze a business and you start changing forecasts, stuff like that. If we can earn 17% for the rest of my life, I'd push that button right now. I wouldn't even think about it. I would have no debate. I mean, can you -- and if you can compound the 17%, if you can reinvest half your money and compound it 17%, you'll own the world in about 50 years.
因此分析业务、调整预测时必须谨慎。如果我余生都能赚 17%，我现在就按下按钮，毫不犹豫。想想看，若把一半利润再投资，并以 17% 复合增长，约 50 年后就能“统治世界”。
Warning
James Dimon是个很能干的人，但巴菲特不喜欢多元化的企业，专业化，在某个细分领域更容易做好。
Unknown Analyst
All right, Jamie, we're out of time. We're going to leave it there. Thanks so much.
未知分析师
好的，Jamie，时间到了。就到这里，非常感谢。

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO
Thank you. We'll see you all soon.
詹姆斯·戴蒙   董事长兼首席执行官
谢谢各位，很快再见。

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