I.H.39.Progressive.96 calendar year combined ratio

1、《The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript》

Joshua Shanker 约书亚-尚克

And I realize how valuable the 96 calendar year is to the company. Is there a risk that right now, there's an opportunity to acquire new customers at a cost far below the long-term average and by focusing on the 96, there's a lot of growth being forgone that ultimately will be more expensive to achieve in the future?

我明白96年的综合比率对公司有多重要。现在是否有一种风险，即目前有机会以远低于长期平均水平的成本获取新客户，而专注于96年，可能会错失很多增长机会，而这些机会最终在未来实现的成本会更高？

这个问题很好，这个人在跟踪PGR的人中属于比较认真的。

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Josh, that's a great question, one we obviously ask ourselves. And in fact, I was recently onboarding a new director on our Board. And I let her know that are, in my mind, as I lead the organization, there are 2 things that are sacrosanct here: our 5 core values at our 96 calendar year combined ratio.

乔希，这是一个很好的问题，我们显然也问过自己。事实上，我最近正在为董事会的一位新董事进行入职培训。我让她知道，在我的心目中，在我领导组织的过程中，有两件事情是神圣不可侵犯的：我们的五大核心价值和我们 96 个日历年的综合比率。

So I'm going to -- this is going to be a longer answer, but I think it's one that a lot of the -- a lot of your analysts -- the analysts have asked Doug. And so I think it's worth the time for -- just me to walk through a little bit how we think about this on the profit side, the growth side and the capital side.

所以我要 -- 这将是一个较长的回答，但我认为这是很多 -- 你们的很多分析师 -- 分析师都问过道格的问题。因此，我认为值得花点时间，让我从利润、增长和资本三个方面谈谈我们是如何考虑这个问题的。

So let me first begin by reiterating our core values and, of course, one is profit -- public in 1971. And ever since that date, it's been publicly talked about, probably prior to that, I just don't have the evidence in writing. But like all our other core values, profits, it's not a value of convenience, where we look to waver from it depending on the business. It's really how we guide our business.

因此，让我首先重申我们的核心价值观，当然，其中之一就是利润 -- 1971 年公开的。从那时起，它就一直被公开谈论，也许在此之前，我没有书面证据。但是，与我们所有其他的核心价值观一样，利润并不是一个方便的价值观，我们不会根据业务的发展而动摇它。这是我们指导业务的真正方式。

It's an all-in number. We don't manage to an underlying even though that's obviously something we look at, but it can't be exclusive of catastrophes or adverse development or reserve development of any kind because that's part of being the business of insurance. How it reads -- it's our profit core value states. We have a responsibility to ourselves, our customers, agents and investors to be a profitable and enduring company by offering products and services consumers value. It's part of what makes and has made Progressive so successful. We inject the discipline of putting profits before growth, and we've built a business that has delivered better than industry results consistently for a very long time.

这是一个综合数字。我们不对基础数据进行管理，尽管这显然是我们要关注的，但它不能排除巨灾、不利发展或任何形式的准备金发展，因为这是保险业务的一部分。这就是我们的利润核心价值。我们对自己、我们的客户、代理人和投资者负有责任，通过为消费者提供物有所值的产品和服务，成为一家盈利且经久不衰的公司。这也是 Progressive 取得成功的原因之一。我们注入了将利润置于增长之上的纪律，我们已经建立了一个长期持续提供优于行业业绩的企业。

保险公司自己不能赌未来的不确定，这样回答更简洁。

That consistency in which we've been able to deliver on our profit target is a significant part of the share price multiples we enjoy today. Like now when profits are under pressure, we take action quickly and aggressively. And by taking action quickly and aggressively, we not only meet our targets, we've also put business that reaches or exceeds our goals and deflect business that doesn't.

我们能够始终如一地实现利润目标，这也是我们今天享有股价倍数的重要原因。就像现在，当利润面临压力时，我们会迅速采取积极行动。通过快速、积极地采取行动，我们不仅实现了目标，还使业务达到或超过了我们的目标，并转移了未达到目标的业务。

You might remember, because you've been around for a while, over 7 years ago when I took over this role, I took the opportunity to publicly commit to some objectives that we've written about for years. And I just want to take a moment to reiterate one of those. It's outlined in our annual report in our policy section, but I think it's worth repeating.

你可能还记得，因为你已经在这里工作了一段时间，7 年多前，当我接手这个职位时，我曾借此机会公开承诺了一些我们多年来一直在讨论的目标。我只想花点时间重申其中的一个目标。在我们的年度报告中，我们的政策部分对其进行了概述，但我认为值得重复。

For us, a 96 combined ratio is not a solve for variable in our business model equation, but rather a constant that provides direction to each product and marketing decision and a cultural shipping point that ensures 0 ambiguity as to how to act in certain situations. Set at a level we believe create a fair balance between attractive profitability and consumer competitiveness, it's deeply ingrained and central to our culture.

对我们来说，96 的综合比率并不是我们商业模式等式中的一个解变量，而是一个常数，它为每一个产品和营销决策提供了方向，也是一个文化航点，确保在某些情况下如何行动不会模糊不清。我们认为，将综合比率设定在一个水平上，可以在有吸引力的盈利能力和消费者竞争力之间实现公平的平衡，它已深深扎根于我们的企业文化之中。

跟数字化经营是一致的，有利于执行，但也有负面影响，赚的不够，不利于提供更有价值的产品，苹果、微软、Google一直提升毛利率，这个产品一直就赚4分钱，那么它有没有变得更好？

I can't really stress that enough. It's part of the fabric of our culture and really embedded in everything we do along with the other 4 core values. It's true our published accident year ratios are lower than the calendar year ratios and closer to our targets. However, that's the moment in time. And I really have said several times in prior calls that uncertainty is a new normal since the onset of the pandemic, and that remains true today.

这一点我怎么强调都不为过。它是我们文化结构的一部分，与其他 4 项核心价值观一起真正融入了我们所做的一切。诚然，我们公布的事故年比率低于日历年比率，更接近我们的目标。然而，这只是时间问题。在之前的电话会议中，我曾多次说过，自大流行病爆发以来，不确定性是一种新常态，如今依然如此。

So for us, growing fast in an uncertain future, before profit is addressed it's a recipe for sustained profit pain. Many insurance companies make this misstep, and we don't intend to repeat those mistakes. But let me go to growth because I think that's the story that we're not hearing enough as well.

因此，对于我们来说，在不确定的未来快速发展，在利润问题得到解决之前，就会造成持续的利润损失。许多保险公司都犯了这个错误，我们不打算重蹈覆辙。但让我谈谈增长，因为我认为这也是我们听得不够多的故事。

保险公司自己不能参与赌博。

I wanted to remind everyone of the significant growth we've had in the first half of 2023. In 6 months, we've added 2.2 million policies in force. And we've increased written premiums by over $5 billion, and that's the equivalent of adding a top 10 Personal Auto carrier. So I would say growth this year could be defined as spectacular.

我想提醒大家我们在2023年上半年的显著增长。在6个月内，我们增加了220万份有效保单。我们的书面保费增加了超过50亿美元，这相当于增加了一个排名前十的个人汽车保险承运商。所以我想说，今年的成长可以被定义为壮观的。

Ambient shopping, and you brought that up, does remain elevated. Our agency channel is actually the best barometer for industry shopping levels because it's less affected by media expenditures. And that channel quotes were up about 16% in the quarter. If we had perfect knowledge about the future and knew that we, for sure, had adequate rates, undoubtedly, there's opportunity for significant growth today.

你提到的 "环境购物 "确实保持了较高的水平。我们的代理渠道实际上是行业购物水平的最佳晴雨表，因为它受媒体支出的影响较小。本季度，该渠道的报价上涨了约 16%。如果我们对未来有充分的了解，知道我们肯定有足够的费率，那么毫无疑问，现在就有机会实现大幅增长。

But that said, growth opportunities today do not preclude the possibility of growth opportunities tomorrow. You've probably watched in the past, and we've taken rates and other underwriting actions to focus on achieving our profitability goal. We've proven to be better positioned for strong growth in the following periods: 2022 was among the worst years for industry Personal Auto profitability and so far, 2023 has been worse.

但是话说回来，今天的增长机会并不妨碍明天的增长机会。你们可能在过去看到过，我们采取了费率和其他承保行动，专注于实现我们的利润目标。我们已经证明，我们为接下来的时期做好了强劲增长的准备：2022年是个人汽车保险行业盈利能力最差的年份之一，到目前为止，2023年的情况更糟。

While we can't know the future, current market conditions suggest there'll be opportunity to increase market share in the future. And then just let me wrap up by saying growth can't happen without growing surplus. Our capital position today is strong, and we believe we have plenty of capital to support the premium growth we expect.

虽然我们无法预知未来，但目前的市场状况表明，未来将有机会扩大市场份额。最后，我想说，没有盈余的增长，就不可能有增长。我们现在的资本状况很好，我们相信我们有充足的资本支持我们预期的保费增长。

We have a structured growth business that is largely self-funding internally through underwriting profits and investment returns. So to bring us back full circle, our profit core value is the key to sustained growth. I know that was a long answer, but I think it's really important to be super clear and unambiguous about how we think about the business. I hope that answered your question, and hopefully, others.

我们的增长业务结构合理，主要通过承保利润和投资收益实现内部自筹资金。因此，回过头来看，我们的利润核心价值是持续增长的关键。我知道这是一个很长的答案，但我认为非常重要的一点是，我们要非常清楚、明确地了解我们是如何看待业务的。我希望这回答了你的问题，也希望回答了其他人的问题。

这是保险公司值得投资的地方，投入的资金不会浪费，另一方面，大型科技公司已经走出另外一种模式，大型科技公司的能力没有反映在资产负债表上。

I.H.39.Progressive.96 calendar year combined ratio

I.H.39.Progressive.96 calendar year combined ratio

1、《The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript》

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