Again my favorite security is the equity stock of a young, rapidly growing and ably managed insurance company. Although Government Employees Insurance Co., my selection of 15 months ago, has had a price rise of more than 100%, it still appears very attractive as a vehicle for long-term capital growth.
再次，我最钟爱的投资标的是一家年轻、快速增长且管理卓越的保险公司的普通股。尽管我在十五个月前选中的政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）股价已上涨逾100%，但它依旧极具长期资本增值的吸引力。
Rarely is an investor offered the opportunity to participate in the growth of two excellently managed and expanding insurance companies on the grossly undervalued basis which appears possible in the case of the Western Insurance Securities Company. The two operating subsidiaries, Western Casualty & Surety and Western Fire, wrote a premium volume of \$26,009,929 in 1952 on consolidated admitted assets of \$29,590,142. Now licensed in 38 states, their impressive growth record, both absolutely and relative to the industry, is summarized in Table I below. \[Net Net Hunter Note: no table. Sorry.]
投资者极少能以严重低估的价格同时参与到两家管理出色且正在扩张的保险公司的成长，但在Western Insurance Securities Company（西部保险证券公司，简称“Western”）身上似乎做得到。其两家运营子公司——Western Casualty & Surety 及 Western Fire——在1952年以合并认可资产29,590,142美元实现了26,009,929美元的保费收入。目前公司已在38个州获得牌照，其绝对与相对行业的亮眼增长记录见下表一（原文无表）。
Western Insurance Securities owns 92% of Western Casualty and Surety, which in turn owns 99.95% of Western Fire Insurance. Other assets of Western Insurance Securities are minor, consisting of approximately \$180,000 in net quick assets. The capitalization consists of 7,000 shares of \$100 par 6% preferred, callable at \$125; 35,000 shares of Class A preferred, callable at \$60, which is entitled to a \$2.50 regular dividend and participates further up to a maximum total of \$4 per share; and 50,000 shares of common stock. The arrears on the Class A presently amount to \$36.75.
Western持有Western Casualty & Surety 92%的股权，而后者又持有Western Fire Insurance 99.95%的股权。Western其余资产较小，仅约18万美元的速动净资产。其资本结构包括：面值100美元、6%股息、可按125美元赎回的优先股7,000股；可按60美元赎回、享有每股2.50美元定期股息并可最高分配至4美元的A类优先股35,000股；以及普通股50,000股。A类优先股目前累计欠息36.75美元。
The management headed by Ray DuBoc is of the highest grade. Mr. DuBoc has ably steered the company since its inception in 1924 and has a reputation in the insurance industry of being a man of outstanding integrity and ability. The second tier of executives is also of top caliber. During the formative years of the company, senior charges were out of line with the earning power of the enterprise. The reader can clearly perceive why the same senior charges that caused such great difficulty when premium volume ranged about the \$3,000,000 mark would cause little trouble upon the attainment of premium volume in excess of \$26,000,000.
以Ray DuBoc为首的管理层堪称一流。自1924年创立以来，DuBoc先生一直将公司掌舵得当，并以杰出的诚信与能力在保险业享有盛誉。二线高管同样出类拔萃。公司早期，高额的优先股费用与盈利能力并不匹配。读者可以明白，那些在保费规模仅约300万美元时造成巨大压力的优先股费用，在保费超过2,600万美元时几乎不成问题。
Adjusting for only 25% of the increase in the unearned premium reserve, earnings of \$1,367,063 in 1952, a very depressed year for auto insurers, were sufficient to cover total senior charges of \$129,500 more than 10 times over, leaving earnings of \$24.74 on each share of common stock.
仅按未到期保费准备金增加额的25%进行调整，1952年（对汽车保险公司而言极为低迷的一年）公司实现盈利1,367,063美元，可覆盖129,500美元的全部优先股费用逾10倍，折合普通股每股盈利24.74美元。
It is quite evident that the common stock has finally arrived, although investors do not appear to realize it since the stock is quoted at less than twice earnings and at a discount of approximately 55% from the December 31, 1952 book value of \$86.26 per share. Table II indicates the postwar record of earnings and dramatically illustrates the benefits being realized by the common stock because of the expanded earnings base. The book value is calculated with allowance for a 25% equity in the unearned premium reserve and is after allowance for call price plus arrears on the preferred.
显而易见，普通股已迎来高光时刻，然而投资者似乎尚未察觉，因为其市价不足当年盈利的两倍，且较1952年12月31日每股86.26美元的账面价值折价约55%。表二展示了战后盈利记录，并生动说明了因盈利基础扩大而惠及普通股的益处。账面价值的计算已计入未到期保费准备金25%的权益，并扣除了优先股赎回价及欠息。
Since Western has achieved such an excellent record in increasing its industry share of premium volume, the reader may well wonder whether standards have been compromised. This is definitely not the case. During the past ten years Western’s operating ratios have proved quite superior to the average multiple line company. The combined loss and expense ratios for the two Western companies as reported by the Alfred M. Best Co. on a case basis are compared in Table III with similar ratios for all stock fire and casualty companies.
鉴于Western在扩大行业保费份额方面表现出色，读者或许会怀疑其是否牺牲了承保标准。绝非如此。过去十年，Western的各项经营比率均明显优于平均的多险种公司。Alfred M. Best 公司以案基准披露的两家Western公司的综合赔付及费用率，与所有股份制火灾及意外险公司的同类比率对比见表三。
The careful reader will not overlook the possibility that Western’s superior performance has been due to a concentration of writings in unusually profitable lines. Actually the reverse is true. Although represented in all major lines, Western is still primarily an automobile insurer with 60% of its volume derived from auto lines. Since automobile underwriting has proven generally unsatisfactory in the postwar period, and particularly so in the last three years, Western’s experience was even more favorable relative to the industry than the tabular comparison would indicate.
细心的读者也许会考虑，Western的卓越表现是否源于其业务集中在异常盈利的险种。事实上恰恰相反。尽管覆盖所有主要险种，Western仍是一家以汽车保险为主的公司，60%的保费来自汽车险。由于战后时期（尤其最近三年）汽车承保普遍欠佳，Western的表现相对于行业比表面数据所示更为突出。
Western has always maintained ample loss reserves on unsettled claims. Underwriting results in the postwar period have shown Western to be over-reserved at the end of each year. Triennial examinations conducted by the insurance commissioners have confirmed these findings.
Western始终对未决赔案保持充足的损失准备。战后期间的承保结果显示，每年末Western都存在备用金偏高的情况。保险监管部门每三年一次的检查亦证实了这一点。
Turning to their investment picture, we of course find a growth in invested assets and investment income paralleling the growth in premium volume. Consolidated net assets have risen from \$5,154,367 in 1940 to their present level of \$29,590,142. Western follows an extremely conservative investment policy, relying upon growth in premium volume for expansion in investment income. Of the year-end portfolio of \$21,889,243, governments plus a list of well diversified high quality municipals total \$20,141,246 or 92% and stocks only \$1,747,997 or 8%. Net investment income of \$474,472 in 1952 was equal to \$6.14 per share of Western Insurance common after minority interest and assuming senior charges were covered entirely from investment income.
再来看投资状况，投资资产与投资收益与保费增长同步扩大。合并净资产由1940年的5,154,367美元增至目前的29,590,142美元。Western实行极为保守的投资政策，主要依赖保费增长提升投资收益。在年末21,889,243美元的投资组合中，政府债券与多元化高品质市政债共计20,141,246美元，占92%；股票仅1,747,997美元，占8%。1952年净投资收益474,472美元，相当于在扣除少数股东权益并假设全部优先股费用由投资收益覆盖后，Western普通股每股收益6.14美元。
The casualty insurance industry during the past several years has suffered staggering losses on automobile insurance lines. This trend was sharply reversed during late 1952. Substantial rate increases in 1951 and 1952 are being brought to bear on underwriting results with increasing force as policies are renewed at much higher premiums.
过去数年，意外保险行业在汽车险方面遭受巨大亏损。这一趋势在1952年底出现急剧逆转。1951及1952年的大幅提价随着保单以更高保费续保，对承保结果的积极影响正日益显现。
Earnings within the casualty industry are expected to be on a very satisfactory basis in 1953 and 1954.
预计1953年至1954年，意外险行业的盈利将处于令人满意的水平。
Western, while operating very profitably during the entire trying period, may be expected to report increased earnings as a result of expanding premium volume, increased assets, and the higher rate structure. An earned premium volume of \$30,000,000 may be conservatively expected by 1954. Normal earning power on this volume should average about \$30.00 per share, with investment income contributing approximately \$8.40 per share after deducting all senior charges from investment income.
Western在整个艰难时期均维持了可观盈利，随着保费规模扩大、资产增加及费率上调，预期其盈利将进一步增长。保守估计，截至1954年其已赚保费可达3,000万美元。按此规模，正常盈利能力平均应为每股约30美元，投资收益在扣除全部优先股费用后约贡献每股8.40美元。
The patient investor in Western Insurance common can be reasonably assured of a tangible acknowledgement of his enormously strengthened equity position. It is well to bear in mind that the operating companies have expanded premium volume some 550% in the last 12 years. This has required an increase in surplus of 350% and consequently restricted the payment of dividends. Recent dividend increases by Western Casualty should pave the way for more prompt payment on arrearages. Any leveling off of premium volume will permit more liberal dividends while a continuation of the past rate of increase, which in my opinion is very unlikely, would of course make for much greater earnings.
耐心持有Western普通股的投资者，可以合理期待其大幅增强的权益地位将得到实质体现。须牢记，过去12年运营公司保费规模增长约550%，这要求盈余增加350%，从而限制了股息支付。Western Casualty 最近提高股息，料将加快拖欠款的清偿。若保费规模趋于平稳，将允许更宽裕的分红；而若以往高增速持续（我认为可能性很小），则盈利自然增长更大。
Operating in a stable industry with an excellent record of growth and profitability, I believe Western Insurance common to be an outstanding vehicle for substantial capital appreciation at its present price of about 40. The stock is traded over-the-counter.
Western所处行业稳定，且拥有优异的增长与盈利记录。我认为，以目前约40美元的价格，Western普通股是实现显著资本增值的出色载体。该股在场外交易市场买卖。