To kick off the launch of PYMNTS.com, the “Oracle from Omaha” weighs in on what’s next in the payment industry and the economy at large. Business Wire CEO Cathy Baron Tamraz sits down with Mr. Buffett in an exclusive interview. The following is a transcript of the video.

为了启动 PYMNTS.com 的上线，“奥马哈先知”就支付行业的未来以及整体经济形势发表了看法。Business Wire 首席执行官 Cathy Baron Tamraz 与巴菲特先生进行了一次独家对话。以下为视频文字实录。

CATHY BARON TAMRAZ: Greetings from San Diego, where we have just completed the Fortune Most Powerful Women’s Summit. I am Cathy Baron Tamraz, CEO of Business Wire, and I am here with the only male that is allowed into this conference and that is Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, which is also the parent company of Business Wire. Warren has graciously agreed to answer some questions today, and kick off a conference that Business Wire and Market Platform Dynamics are holding in New York City, to launch a new Web site about the payment industry callexd PYMNTS.com. We are really excited about this new portal, which will be a primary source of news for the payments industry. It will havebreaking news and regulatory news in the payment industry, new technology and new products.

CATHY BARON TAMRAZ：来自圣地亚哥的问候，我们刚刚结束了《财富》最具影响力女性峰会。我是 Business Wire 首席执行官 Cathy Baron Tamraz，坐在我身旁的是本次会议唯一获准出席的男士——沃伦·巴菲特，他是伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长，伯克希尔亦是 Business Wire 的母公司。沃伦今天慷慨同意回答一些问题，并为 Business Wire 与 Market Platform Dynamics 在纽约举办的会议揭开序幕，该会议旨在推出一个关于支付行业的新网站，名为 PYMNTS.com。我们对这一新门户感到无比兴奋，它将成为支付行业的主要新闻来源，提供最新动态及监管资讯、前沿技术和新产品。

Because the payment industry is so vital to the economy, we thought it would be relevant to talk to Warren and hear his views on the state of the economy and what we can do to revitalize it. So thank you, Warren, for speaking with us today and agreeing to be interviewed by me.

由于支付行业对经济极其重要，我们认为与沃伦探讨经济现状以及振兴之道十分有意义。沃伦，感谢你今天接受采访并同意由我提问。

WARREN BUFFETT: You are my favorite interviewer!

WARREN BUFFETT：你是我最喜欢的采访者！

CBT: Thank you very much. That’s on tape, by the way. So, the first question I have for you is about the near-term future of our economy. The last 12 months feels like a really bad dream. This year has been the year that shook the world. It’s been a year since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and it almost sent the economy over a cliff. We had the Bear Stearns fallout, Merrill Lynch sold to Bank of America, the AIG crisis, Fannie and Freddie falling under government control. It’s been a really difficult year. So, what do you think is going to happen now in the fourth quarter of 2009 and also in 2010?

CBT：非常感谢。这可是录下来的哦。那么，我的第一个问题与你对我国经济短期前景的看法有关。过去 12 个月仿佛一场噩梦。今年堪称震撼世界的一年。自雷曼兄弟破产至今已满一年，那场危机几乎将经济推向悬崖。我们经历了贝尔斯登倒闭、美林出售给美国银行、AIG 危机，以及房利美和房地美被政府接管。这一年异常艰难。那么，你认为 2009 年第四季度及 2010 年会发生什么？

WB: I am not sure about exact quarters or anything of the sort. Who knows about next week or next month? We made enormous progress since a year ago. We had a real panic. And if you didn’t panic, you didn’t understand what was going on. What happened in September and October of 2008 will particularly be remembered for a long, long time. And while the governmental authorities malign things sometimes, they fortunately did some very right things, very important things. They did them properly, and they kept us from going over the cliff. The fallout from that financial panic hit the regular economy in the fourth quarter like a ton of bricks. We are coming back from that. The patient really went into the emergency room and it won’t come out of the hospital entirely for a while.

WB：我无法精确预测具体季度的情况。谁又能知晓下周或下个月呢？与一年前相比，我们已经取得了巨大进展。当时的确发生了一场真正的恐慌；如果你当时没有恐慌，那说明你并未了解事态。2008 年 9 月和 10 月发生的事情将在很长时间内被铭记。虽然政府当局有时会受到批评，但幸运的是，他们采取了一些非常正确且极为重要的举措，并恰到好处地阻止了我们跌落悬崖。那场金融恐慌的余波在第四季度像巨石般砸向实体经济。我们正从中复苏。那位“病人”的确被送进了急诊室，要完全出院尚需时日。

There are things that have to be cured in the system, but this system works. If you look at this country, we have gone through the Great Depression, we have gone through world wars, we have gone through civil war, and we have progressed like no country in the world. We have the right system. It doesn’t avoid all the problems, but it overcomes all the problems.

体系中确实还有需要修复之处，但这一体系行之有效。看看这个国家：我们经历过大萧条、世界大战、内战，却取得了世界无可匹敌的进步。我们拥有正确的制度。它并不能避免所有问题，但能够克服所有问题。

CBT: Do you see consumer-spending increasing in the near term?

CBT：你认为近期消费者支出会增加吗？

WB: No, and not for a while. I think people had an experience a year ago that they are not going to get over quickly. But the factories are there, the human potential is there, the system is there. It works over time. Your kids will live better than you and I live, and our grandchildren will live better than they do. This country moves forward.

WB：不会，至少短期内不会。我认为人们一年前经历的事件短时间内难以释怀。但工厂仍在，人力潜力仍在，制度仍在。随着时间推移，这一体系会发挥作用。你的孩子将过上比你我更好的生活，我们的孙辈也将比他们过得更好。这个国家会继续前行。

If you take the 20th century, we had a Great Depression, world wars, a nuclear bomb, a flu epidemic. We had all these things, and at the end of the 20th century, the average American was living seven times better than at the start of the century. It’s amazing. The Dow Jones Average had gone from 66 to 11,400. So the country works, you don’t have to worry about that.

如果回顾 20 世纪，我们经历了大萧条、世界大战、核武器、流感大流行。然而到了世纪末，普通美国人的生活水平已是世纪初的七倍，令人惊叹。道琼斯指数从 66 点升至 11,400 点。所以，这个国家的体制行之有效，你无需担心。

CBT: This latest debacle has also been called a “crisis of confidence.” Five trillion dollars of American wealth has vanished. If confidence is what’s needed to stimulate the economy, how do we put trust back into the financial system? Does the government need to retain a stronger hand?

CBT：这场最新的惨剧也被称作“信心危机”。已有五万亿美元的美国财富蒸发。如果振兴经济需要重建信心，我们该如何让公众重新信任金融体系？政府是否需要继续保持更强势的干预？

WB: Well, people became afraid a year ago, and confidence is not going to exist when fear exists. Fear is very contagious. It spreads very quickly, and that’s what happened in the start of the fourth quarter last year. The confidence doesn’t come back as fast as it’s lost, but it does come back. It’s come back a long way already, but it has a ways to go. As people see and really get re-affirmed about the fact that this system works. We are still tossing out 14 trillion worth of product a year. It will return. It’s already returned with most people in most ways, but it’s not back 100%. It’ll get there.

WB：一年前人们陷入恐慌，而有恐惧就不可能有信心。恐惧极具传染性，蔓延速度很快，这正是去年第四季度初的情形。信心失去得快，恢复得慢，但终究会恢复。至今已经恢复了不少，但仍有一段路要走。随着人们看到并真正重新确认这个体系行之有效，信心会回来。我们仍然每年生产价值十四万亿美元的产品。信心会回来的。对大多数人而言，在大多数方面已经回来了，但尚未百分之百恢复；最终会达到的。

CBT: Do you have any comment on the unemployment rate?

CBT：你对失业率有什么看法？

WB: Well, the unemployment rate will turn around late. It always lags. People who have gone through a period like this are slow to rehire until they really have to. On the other hand, the time will come when they have to. There will be more people working in housing a year or two from now. We have a brick company. We have companies in the carpet business. We have had to let people go in those businesses in the last year, year and a half. We will be adding people at some point, but we won’t do it until we see the demand come back. It’ll be a little slow because we don’t want to go through what we did before. Although, I will guarantee you that three years from now, our brick companies, our carpet company, and our insulation company will all be employing far more people than now.

WB：失业率的好转总是滞后。经历过这种时期的企业在重新招聘时会非常谨慎，直到确实需要才会行动。不过，总有一天他们得招聘。一两年后，住房建筑领域的就业人数会增加。我们有一家砖厂，也有地毯业务。过去一年到一年半里，我们不得不在这些业务中裁员。未来某个时点我们会再招聘，但只有在看到需求回升后才会这样做。过程会有些缓慢，因为我们不想再经历一次过去的情景。不过我可以保证，三年后，我们的砖厂、地毯公司和保温材料公司雇用的人数都会远超现在。

CBT: That’s good to hear. The next question is about the government. Congress and the administration have been working on reforming financial regulation. Do you think they are on the right track? And will reforms and new rules to protect consumers help restore confidence?

CBT：听到这个消息很振奋。接下来想谈谈政府。国会和政府一直在致力于金融监管改革。你认为他们走在正确的道路上吗？为了保护消费者而实施的改革和新规能否帮助重建信心？

WB: Well, the new rules won out, so the things they have done during the last year fell pretty short of confidence. Not everything is done perfectly, but nobody can do them perfectly. The important thing is that they got things done and people do believe in them, and they’ll believe in them more and more as it goes along. Government has a real role to play and it will not prevent bubbles forever. Human beings do crazy things from time to time, and the real question is how they recover from it. You and I have done things in our life, and the truth is that we came back from them. That’s the important thing.

WB：新的规章最终确立，因此他们过去一年所做的工作在信心方面尚不尽如人意。并非所有事情都能做到尽善尽美，也没人能做到尽善尽美。关键是他们采取了行动，人们确实开始相信这些措施，并且随着时间推移会越信越深。政府确实有角色要扮演，但它无法永远杜绝泡沫。人类偶尔会做出疯狂之举，真正的问题在于他们如何从中恢复。你我一生中也做过一些事情，事实是我们走了回来，这才重要。

You can’t rule out human emotions. When people get greedy as a pack, strange things happen. When they get fearful as a pack, strange things happen. That isn’t the way they exist most of the time, but they do give into that. So rules will help us avoid some of the problems. They’ll help us modify some of the problems, but they won’t eliminate all future problems.

人类情绪无法被彻底排除。当人们成群结队地贪婪时，会出现怪事；当他们集体恐惧时，也会出现怪事。这并不是他们的常态，但确实会发生。因此，规则能帮助我们避免部分问题，能缓解一些问题，却不能消除未来所有问题。

CBT: I was watching a little TV this week and I was listening to William Cohen, who is the author of “The House of Cards.” He said that if you don’t change compensation and how Wall Street is incented, the same thing is going happen all over again. And yet, I recently heard that Wall Street is hiring, and they are also guaranteeing big bonuses and compensation packages, which is a little bit alarming if you ask me. What’s your view is on that?

CBT：本周我看电视时听到《House of Cards》一书的作者威廉·科恩说，如果不改变薪酬制度和华尔街的激励方式，同样的事情还会重演。可是我最近听说华尔街正在招聘，还确保高额奖金和补偿方案，这让我有些担忧。你对此有何看法？

WB: Well, Wall Street is about trying to make a lot of money. It’s the nature of the system. You get a huge capitalist system, and it raises lots of money and it makes lots of big deals and people – some people get paid very well for it. What you have to change in Wall Street is you have to make sure that in addition to carrots, there are sticks. And it can’t be a one-way street where they are making ungodly amounts of money when things are good and then they move on to someplace else for a while when things are bad. You have to create a downside. I hope there are some practices put into place – and I’ll have a few thoughts on them myself – but Congress undoubtedly will have a few thoughts too. You have to put in something where there is downside to people who really mess up large institutions and we need some new help in that. Too many people have walked away from the troubles they have created for society, not just for their own institution, and they have walked away rich. They may not be as rich as they were before, but they have walked away better than they should have. There have to be incentives – not only to get rich, but to behave well.

WB：华尔街的本质就是尽力赚钱。在庞大的资本主义体系下，巨额资金被筹集、大型交易层出不穷，有些人因此获得丰厚报酬。华尔街必须改变的一点是，在“胡萝卜”之外必须有“大棒”。不能只在形势好时赚取天文数字的收入，而在形势不佳时拍拍屁股走人。必须设置下行风险。我希望能实施一些做法——我自己也会提出一些想法——而国会显然也会有意见。要建立机制，让那些把大型机构搞得一团糟的人承担后果，在这方面我们需要新的方式。太多人给社会、给机构制造了麻烦，却满载而归。也许他们不如从前那么富有，但仍比应得的多。激励机制必须兼具“致富”与“守德”。

CBT: President Obama said this week that the financial firms “owe a debt to the American people.” And I wasn’t exactly sure how, how they could pay that back to the American people.

CBT：奥巴马总统本周表示，金融机构“欠美国人民一笔债”。但我并不确定他们该如何、又能如何偿还这笔债。

WB: It’s interesting. Exactly a year ago when I was at this conference, I had a proposal for the so-called “toxic assets.” I called three people in the financial world who were going to write Secretary Paulson about it. I wrote them on October 6th. I called three people to help out on this, and it would have required a lot of effort on their part and some commitment of money and time and energy. I asked all three of them if this went forward to do it absolutely pro-bono. I asked them not to make one dime out of it. And they all said yes to me. So, they are good people. Many are motivated by greed. None of us are perfect, you know? I always say that, “Every saint has a past, every sinner has a future.” We have got some sinners back there, but they are not all bad. They went along with a bubble that they helped create – but the whole American public did. You still have to have the right rewards and penalties for behavior. That’s how you get decent behavior. So, I don’t look at Wall Street as “evil.” I look at Wall Street as given to huge excess sometimes. I don’t want to get rid of it. We need something to allocate capital and distribute securities and all of that throughout the system. We have got a big capitalist system and we have to have a big capital market – but there is plenty of room for improvement.

WB：很有意思。就在一年前的这场会议上，我针对所谓“有毒资产”提出了一个方案。我在 10 月 6 日写信给三位金融界人士，准备共同致函保尔森部长。我请他们帮忙，这需要他们投入大量精力、资金和时间。我要求他们如果方案推进，完全以公益形式参与，不赚一分钱。他们都答应了。所以，他们是好人。的确，许多人受贪婪驱使，我们谁都不完美。我常说，“每位圣人都有过去，每个罪人都有未来。”确实有一些“罪人”，但并非全然邪恶。他们卷入并助推了泡沫——其实全体美国公众也一样。关键仍在于建立恰当的奖惩机制，这才能规范行为。因此，我并不把华尔街视作“邪恶”，我认为它有时会出现巨大的过度行为。我不想废除华尔街，我们需要一个渠道来配置资本、分销证券等等。我们有庞大的资本主义体系，就必须配套庞大的资本市场——但改进空间依旧很大。

CBT: Looking into your crystal ball, what will the stock market look like a year from now?

CBT：如果让你通过水晶球预测，一年后的股市会是什么模样？

WB: Well, I don’t know about a year from now. Five years from now, it’ll be higher, yeah. Ten years from now, it’ll be higher. One year from now, I don’t know.

WB：嗯，我不知道一年后会怎样。五年后股市会更高，是的；十年后也会更高；至于一年后，我就说不准了。

CBT: Fair enough. Moving a little bit more closely to the payment and card system. On September 3rd, the The Wall Street Journal had an articled titled “Wal-Mart to Pay via Check Cards.” Wal-Mart isn’t going to issue paychecks anymore. So it’s all going to be through a card system, which is actually good for the payment industry and the card industry. And it seems to be a growing movement to use cards to dispense payments. I noticed that on some airlines, if you don’t have a card – a credit card of some kind – you can’t eat or drink anything if you are sitting in economy because they don’t take cash anymore. So that, that’s kind of interesting…

CBT：好吧。让我们把话题拉回支付和卡片系统。9 月 3 日，《华尔街日报》刊登了一篇题为“沃尔玛将通过借记卡发薪”的文章。沃尔玛以后不再发纸质薪资支票，一切都改用卡片系统，这对支付业和卡片业都是利好。而且，使用卡片发放薪酬似乎正成为一种增长中的趋势。我注意到在某些航空公司，如果你没有一张信用卡之类的卡，在经济舱就买不到吃的喝的，因为他们不再收现金。这挺有意思……

WB: Some restaurant just announced that in New York too, that they weren’t going to take cash.

WB：纽约也有一家餐馆刚刚宣布不再接受现金。

CBT: That brings us to the next question: Do you think cash is ever going to disappear as a form of payment?

CBT：这就引出下一个问题：你认为现金是否会彻底消失，作为一种支付方式？

WB: It won’t disappear, but in the end – and that’s the genius of the American system – we do give the consumer what they want. If people want to use the convenience of cards, they will do it. Now there will be enough people that want to use cash, so consumers won’t turn their back on it entirely. They haven’t given up landline phones entirely for cell phones. The American consumer – in the end – is king. You can push them around for a week or a month maybe, but you either figure out what’s in your customers’ mind and decide you are going to serve them; or you are not going to be in business. They are right, and you are wrong. It’s what made this country, to some extent, what it is. Our market system where the customer – 300 million Americans – tell people what to make, where to serve them, and how to do business. Compare that to some totalitarian system, where somebody decides what people are going eat for lunch and we win.

WB：现金不会消失，但归根到底——这正是美国制度的妙处——我们会满足消费者的需求。如果人们想享受刷卡的便利，他们就会使用卡片。当然，也会有足够的人想用现金，所以消费者不会彻底抛弃现金。就像他们还没有因为手机而完全放弃固话一样。美国消费者——最终——是上帝。你也许能左右他们一周或一个月，但要么你搞清楚顾客想什么并决定去服务他们，要么你就别做生意。他们是对的，你是错的。这在某种程度上造就了今天的美国。我们的市场体系让顾客——三亿美国人——告诉企业该生产什么、在哪里为他们服务、如何做生意。把这同某些极权体制相比，那些体制由某个人来决定老百姓午饭吃什么，而我们赢了。

CBT: Well, we are certainly not used to that…

CBT：嗯，我们的确不习惯那种做法……

WB: Oh yeah. Mm-hmm.

WB：哦，是的。嗯哼。

CBT: The credit card industry is about 50 years old, and it’s pretty safe to say that it’s going to transform in the next 10 or 15 years. Sometimes I think we’ll have chips in our hands to scan and pay for things. All kinds of things will be transacted electronically.

CBT：信用卡行业大约有 50 年历史，可以肯定地说未来 10 到 15 年它将发生变革。有时我想，也许我们手里会植入芯片，用来扫码付款。各种交易都会电子化。

WB: Cathy, I met Ralph Schneider who was the founder of the Diners Club back in the 1950s. He had just designed an IRA, and they are just using it around New York. They used to charge the merchants 10 percent and the card was very low priced then. American Express went into the business originally defensively. They had the Travelers Check and they were worried about what the credit card would do to it. In 1964, when American Express had what they called the great Salad Oil Scandal, we became this little outfit in Omaha and became the largest shareholders of the American Express Company. I went around to restaurants and service stations, and asked people about whether the Card was losing its appeal because of the scandal that was going around. They said the Card wasn’t losing it but that it was growing in appeal. So, I watched the credit card industry almost from the beginning in that respect. We got in early. I could see it was a powerful tool. First Data was in Omaha, and I have watched them all. Carte Blanche, the Hilton Card – some of those have disappeared over the years. Of course, Visa and MasterCard have been successful. There have been all kinds of developments, but the truth is, the American public likes to be able to go into their pocket and pull out a card.

WB：Cathy，我在 1950 年代见过 Diner’s Club 的创始人 Ralph Schneider。他刚设计了一种 IRA，当时只在纽约使用。那时他们向商户收取 10% 的手续费，而持卡成本很低。美国运通最初是出于防御才进入这项业务的，他们原有旅行支票，担心信用卡会冲击这块业务。1964 年，美国运通爆发所谓“沙拉油丑闻”时，我们这家位于奥马哈的小公司成了美国运通的最大股东。我到餐馆和加油站走访，询问人们是否因为丑闻而觉得这张卡失去吸引力。大家说卡不仅没跌份儿，反而越来越受欢迎。因此，某种意义上，从信用卡行业的早期起我就一直在观察。我们很早就入局，看得出它是一件强大的工具。First Data 公司也在奥马哈，我一直关注他们。Carte Blanche、希尔顿卡——这些卡片有些后来已经消失。当然，Visa 和 MasterCard 取得了成功。出现了各种演变，但事实是，美国公众喜欢能从口袋里掏出一张卡的感觉。

CBT: Well, that was a really great lead into a question I had about American Express. Everyone knows here that Berkshire Hathaway has an investment in American Express, as you just said. So, you obviously know a lot about the payment industry and that company in particular. Can you tell us what attracted you to that company?

CBT：很好，这正好引出了我关于美国运通的问题。正如你刚才所说，大家都知道伯克希尔·哈撒韦持有美国运通的股份。显然你对支付行业，尤其是这家公司非常了解。能告诉我们，当初是什么吸引你投资这家公司的？

WB: Well, what originally attracted me back in 1964 was that Diners Club got the jump. They were way ahead of American Express. American Express came in with a very interesting market and concept. People already were carrying Diners Club, and American Express wanted to enter the field. They charged more than Diners Club did for their product. Diners Club had this card that had a bunch of flashy little symbols and everything on it. American Express brought out that centurion, and originally it was the green card with the guy that looked like Mr. Integrity. If you went into a restaurant, and you were buying dinner for somebody, and you had a choice of pulling out this Diners Club card that looked like you were giving a check from your mother or pulling out this centurion that made it look you were J.P. Morgan or something – you went with Mr. Integrity. They actually took over the field by establishing themselves not as the low-priced competitor but, but as the class competitor. It was a great marketing arrangement. Then it swept the country. The card I carry in my pocket says, “Member Since 1964.”

WB：最早吸引我的是 1964 年的情况。当时 Diners Club 率先发力，远远领先于美国运通。美国运通以非常有趣的市场定位和理念进入这一领域。当时人们已经持有 Diners Club 卡，而美国运通想进入市场，他们为自己的产品定价比 Diners Club 更高。Diners Club 的卡面上有许多花哨的符号，而美国运通推出了那张罗马百夫长卡，最初是绿色的，看上去像“诚信先生”。如果你在餐厅请人吃饭，手里有两种选择：一种是掏出看上去像妈妈给的支票的 Diners Club 卡，另一种是掏出让你看起来像 J.P. 摩根的百夫长卡——你自然会选择“诚信先生”。他们通过把自己定位为高端而非低价竞争者占领了市场。这是极佳的营销策略，随后席卷全国。我钱包里的卡写着“自 1964 年起成为会员”。

CBT: Mine says “Member Since 1983.”

CBT：我的卡写着“自 1983 年起成为会员”。

WB: Well, that was the year you were born, I was 40 years old or something when I did this.

WB：那正是你出生的年份，而我当时大概 40 岁左右办的卡。

CBT: Last question. We would like you to impart a little bit of advice and tell us what is the one lesson that we should take away from this economic Pearl Harbor?

CBT：最后一个问题。请给我们一些建议：从这场经济“珍珠港”事件中，我们应该汲取的最重要教训是什么？

WB: Well, I think that it goes back what I have told my manager to do: Just keep taking care of the customer. We have got a lot of customers in this country. Since 1886, Coca-Cola has been selling a product that people like, and they just keep taking care of them. It’s what you have done at Business Wire. In the end, nobody that’s ever taken good care of the customer has ever lost; I mean, that, that is the name of the game.

WB：我认为仍然要回到我对旗下经理人常说的话：始终把客户放在首位。这个国家有大量的消费者。自 1886 年以来，可口可乐一直在销售人们喜爱的产品，并持续悉心服务顾客。Business Wire 也是如此。最终，凡是真正善待客户的人从未失败过；这就是商业的真谛。

CBT: That is great advice. I want to thank you for your time, Warren, it’s been a pleasure talking to you, and allowing me to interview you.

CBT：这是非常宝贵的建议。沃伦，非常感谢你的时间。与你交谈、得到你的采访机会，我感到十分荣幸。

WB: It’s been fun. Thanks, Cathy.

WB：非常愉快，谢谢你，Cathy。