2016-02-27 Warren Buffett.Auto insurance

2016-02-27 Warren Buffett.Auto insurance


‹ A bit more than a century ago, the auto was invented, and around it formed an industry that insures cars and their drivers. Initially, this business was written through traditional insurance agencies – the kind dealing in fire insurance. This agency-centric approach included high commissions and other underwriting expenses that consumed about 40¢ of the premium dollar. Strong local agencies were then in the driver’s seat because they represented multiple insurers and could play one company off against another when commissions were being negotiated. Cartel-like pricing prevailed, and all involved were doing fine – except for the consumer.
‹ 一百多年前,汽车发明问世,并催生了为汽车及其驾驶员提供保障的保险行业。最初,这一业务通过传统保险代理机构承保——与办理火险业务的机构相同。这种以代理为核心的模式手续费和其他承保费用高昂,大约占到保费收入的 40 美分。当地实力雄厚的代理掌握主导权,因为它们代表多家保险公司,可以在佣金谈判时让保险公司相互竞争。当时呈现类似卡特尔的定价局面,相关各方都过得不错——除了消费者。

And then some American ingenuity came into play: G. J. Mecherle, a farmer from Merna, Illinois, came up with the idea of a captive sales force that would sell the insurance products of only a single company. His baby was christened State Farm Mutual. The company cut commissions and expenses – moves that permitted lower prices – and soon became a powerhouse. For many decades, State Farm has been the runaway volume leader in both auto and homeowner’s insurance. Allstate, which also operated with a direct distribution model, was long the runner-up. Both State Farm and Allstate have had underwriting expenses of about 25%.
随后,美国人的创造力开始发挥作用:伊利诺伊州 Merna 的农民 G. J. Mecherle 想出了建立专属销售队伍的主意,只销售同一家公司的保险产品。他的“孩子”被命名为 State Farm Mutual。该公司削减佣金和费用——从而得以降低价格——很快便成为行业巨头。数十年来,State Farm 一直稳坐汽车险和住宅险的销量冠军宝座。同样采用直接销售模式的 Allstate 长期位居第二。State Farm 和 Allstate 的承保费用率均约为 25%。

In the early 1930s, another contender, United Services Auto Association (“USAA”), a mutual-like company, was writing auto insurance for military officers on a direct-to-the-customer basis. This marketing innovation rose from a need that military personnel had to buy insurance that would stay with them as they moved from base to base. That was business of little interest to local insurance agencies, which wanted the steady renewals that came from permanent residents.
20 世纪 30 年代初,另一个竞争者——类似互助公司的美国军人汽车协会(USAA)——开始直接面向客户为军官承保汽车保险。这一营销创新源于军人群体的需求,他们需要一种保险,无论调往何处都能随行生效。而这类业务对当地保险代理机构兴趣不大,因为他们更青睐长期定居者带来的稳定续保。

The direct distribution method of USAA, as it happened, incurred lower costs than those enjoyed by State Farm and Allstate and therefore delivered an even greater bargain to customers. That made Leo and Lillian Goodwin, employees of USAA, dream of broadening the target market for its direct distribution model beyond military officers. In 1936, starting with \$100,000 of capital, they incorporated Government Employees Insurance Co. (later compressing this mouthful to GEICO).
事实证明,USAA 的直接销售模式成本低于 State Farm 和 Allstate,由此为客户提供了更大的价格优惠。这促使 USAA 员工 Leo 与 Lillian Goodwin 萌生念头,想把这种直销模式的目标市场扩展至军官之外。1936 年,他们以 10 万美元资本创立了 Government Employees Insurance Co.(后来简化为 GEICO)。

Their fledgling did \$238,000 of auto insurance business in 1937, its first full year. Last year GEICO did \$22.6 billion, more than double the volume of USAA. (Though the early bird gets the worm, the second mouse gets the cheese.) GEICO’s underwriting expenses in 2015 were 14.7% of premiums, with USAA being the only large company to achieve a lower percentage. (GEICO is fully as efficient as USAA but spends considerably more on advertising aimed at promoting growth.)
这家新公司在 1937 年第一个完整经营年度实现了 23.8 万美元的汽车保险业务。去年,GEICO 的业务量达到 226 亿美元,超过 USAA 的两倍。(早起的鸟儿有虫吃,第二只老鼠却能吃到奶酪。)2015 年,GEICO 的承保费用率为保费的 14.7%,仅有 USAA 的比例更低。(GEICO 的运营效率与 USAA 不相上下,但为了促进增长在广告上花费更多。)

With the price advantage GEICO’s low costs allow, it’s not surprising that several years ago the company seized the number two spot in auto insurance from Allstate. GEICO is also gaining ground on State Farm, though it is still far ahead of us in volume. On August 30, 2030 – my 100th birthday – I plan to announce that GEICO has taken over the top spot. Mark your calendar.
凭借低成本带来的价格优势,GEICO 几年前从 Allstate 手中夺得了汽车保险业的第二名也就不足为奇了。GEICO 也正在缩小与 State Farm 的差距,尽管后者的业务规模仍遥遥领先。我计划在 2030 年 8 月 30 日——我 100 岁生日那天——宣布 GEICO 登顶第一。请把这一天记在日历上。

GEICO employs about 34,000 people to serve its 14 million policyholders. I can only guess at the workforce it would require to serve a similar number of policyholders under the agency system. I believe, however, that the number would be at least 60,000, a combination of what the insurer would need in direct employment and the personnel required at supporting agencies.
GEICO 现有约 34,000 名员工,为 1,400 万名保单持有人提供服务。我只能猜想,若采用代理系统,要服务相同数量的保单持有人需多少人手。我认为至少需要 60,000 名员工,既包括保险公司直接雇用的人员,也包括代理机构的人手。

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