【1. Charlie Munger – The Architect of Berkshire Hathaway】
For one thing, I was only interested in whether things worked. Charlie wanted to know how things worked. I would turn on a switch and if the tv or light bulb went on, I could not care less about what had caused that miracle. Charlie, however, would want to understand every aspect of how a generator worked, how electricity traveled to his home, the merits of AC vs DC, whatever.
Like his hero, Ben Franklin, Charlie wanted to understand everything, and he pretty well succeeded.
【批注】"对事物是否有效感兴趣"源自于想解决现实的问题，并且相信"正确答案是存在的"，最后指向的是专注；"理解一切"的出发点和目的地跟前者是不一样的，前者相信知识是收敛的，后者不相信知识是收敛的，即使被告之、被引导、被证明、甚至自己也同意是应该收敛的。
有些"鸟"来到世上是来解决问题的，乔布斯在一次采访中说苹果的成功是专注于"真正重要的事情"，另一些有不同的目的。那些专注于解决问题的会很快发现自己擅长的点，比如，乔布斯发现三星和其他手机的设计师不知道自己是有手指头的；巴菲特在Las Vegas看到很多人喜欢把辛苦赚来的"好钱"扔进"坏钱"堆里。
在发现自己的擅长点以后，他们又会发现自己的时间和精力是有限的，聚焦和专注才能实现来到这个世界的最初的目的。
【4. First quarter results and $182B in cash】
Sometimes sometimes, we've done things that were big mistakes. But never we never get close to fatal mistakes. And every now and then we do something that really works.
【批注】致命的错误包括：（1）系统性的、直接归零的风险；（2）到期会归零的期权；（3）过高的杠杆，也包括人，会在错误方向加倍努力的人。
【4. First quarter results and $182B in cash】
They've got a business that earns better returns on equity. But they don't plow it and they shouldn't they don't plow it back exactly like we have. And this does show what can be done really, without any miracles if you save money over time. And we have a group of shareholders we had a group of partners originally, Charlie and I did that wanted to save money. And left their money with like in that film you just saw. You saw Eddie and Dorothy Davis. And the Davis family and the children and the grandchildren periodically did some other things with the money. But they also basically left it with us, and we were a savings vehicle.
【批注】银行在资本的扩张中是有优势的，维持15%以上的ROE，又能够长期吸收新增的资本，只有少数生意能同时做到这两点。巴菲特在这里的意思是银行对于新增资本的需求有一些局限性，BRK可以把钱留起来等待机会，银行还做不到，银行在一个更窄的空间扩张业务，有更多的限制。
【5. Selling some Apple shares now with higher tax rates expected later】
Investments really require you to have your mind set properly. So, we will end up — unless something dramatically happens — with Apple as our largest investment. But I don't mind at all, under current conditions, building the cash position. When I look at the alternatives available in the equity markets, and I look at the composition of what's going on in the world, we find it quite attractive.
I would say with the present fiscal policies, I think that something has to give. And I think that higher taxes are quite likely.
【批注】
2、目前的财政赤字难以维持，苹果已经缺少增长的潜力，但是PE仍然维持在30倍以上，未来10年存在3个减值的风险：
（1）资本支出增加、现金流减少；
（2）PE倍数下降；
（3）税收增加。
假设估值的起点是1000亿，PE下降30%就失去300亿，税收从20%提到30%又失去50亿，苹果还可能大幅增加资本的支出，未来10年在剔除这些因素以后还能不能有所增长？
巴菲特认为还是有可能性的，因为这样的好企业不多，目前减仓的主要原因是第1点，持有现金可能有更好的收益。
【7. Our utilities won't throw good money after bad if states impose excessive climate change costs】
But the electric utility business — it's never going to be a — it's never going to be close to being — the wonderful type of business that — I mean — think about what the return on tangible equity of Coca-Cola, or American Express, or take it to the extreme, Apple — is.
【批注】同样是受监管的资本密集型业务，BHE相比于BNSF的风险要大，这个业务会因为火灾赔光所有的资本。
【8. Artificial intelligence (AI) could make fraud "the growth industry of all time"】
If you think of the potential for scamming people — scamming has always been part of the American scene. But this would make it — if I was interested in investing in scamming — it's going to be the growth industry of all time.
It has enormous potential for good and enormous potential for harm, and I just don't know how that plays out.
【批注】一种思考问题的框架，段永平说马斯克既有好的想法、也有坏的想法，但不知道哪个先来，巴菲特也用这个方式评价过华尔街的投资经理。
【9. GEICO is catching up with competitors on using data technology to set rates】
But our fundamental advantage at GEICO, of course, is that we have lower costs than virtually anybody. And that cost advantage has been dramatic. We've driven our underwriting expense ratio below 10 percent, and there's just very, very, very few companies that can compete with that.
But our low costs have masked the fact that, for a while, that we could do without progressing as much as we should've in the matching of rate to risk.
【批注】巴菲特认为GEICO的成本优势还非常明显，我自己有一些不同的观点。
1、损失率（Loss Ratio，费率与风险匹配的程度），因为技术落后在很长时间里输给Progressive，会不会成为结构性的劣势，可能会、也可能不会，前面认为不是关键变量不够重视，现在已经承认错误；
2、直销是不是结构性的优势？有一种可能性是人工智能帮助Progressive去掉中间的保险代理人，Progressive和其他的汽车保险公司都进入以直销为主的模式；
3、GEICO的浮存金可以投资股票，其他的保险在很长时间还是做不到这一点，这是更有确定性的结构性优势；
巴菲特最后指出的点很重要：优势可以掩盖事实，能在大量信息中提炼出关键信息和问题边界的人太少，他想到了浮存金的投资收益要跟GEICO的经营分离，但还是在很长时间里让直销掩盖了损失率的劣势。
【10. Surround yourself with people you trust, like Charlie Munger】
Charlie, in all the years we worked together, not only never once lied to me ever but he didn't even shape things so that he told half-lies or quarter-lies to sort of stack the deck in the direction he wanted to go. He was absolutely — he considered it of utmost importance that he never lied.
【批注】想一想为什么会有不信任的人？为什么会发生？为什么会妥协？
【15. Cyber insurance is hot but too risky for now】
So it is projected to be a huge business. My guess is, at some point, it might become a huge business, but it might be associated with huge losses. And our approach is to sort of stay away from it right now, until we can have access to some meaningful data and hang our hat on data.
And I would say that human nature is such that most insurance companies will get very excited. And their agents will get very excited. And it's very fashionable. And, as Charlie would say, it may be rat poison.
【批注】保险能承担的是离散的风险，聚合违背了保险的本质。
【18. Life advice: set goals and take the paths that achieve them】
I would try to figure out how you'd want to look back on your life and think about yourself and start today to go on the path that leads to that goal. Find the job that you would like to have if you didn't need a job. But don't forget what you're actually trying to do.
【批注】"但别忘了，你真正想做的到底是什么"，能在寻找的路途上保持不变形。
【19. Greg Abel is now working directly with Berkshire's managers】
Greg accomplishes — he sees more of them, understands more about their problems, can give them suggestions. He's got incredible amounts of energy. We didn't do it because we were doing so well ourselves. Not because we didn't know it should be done, but because we were doing so well ourselves.
【批注】巴菲特有些话是非常坦诚的，不去费心Greg Abel的那些事是因为"自己做得太好了"，同样一份时间，做自己的事可以创造更多的价值，Greg Abel显然不具备这个能力，没有能力一大块、一大块捡金子，一粒粒的捡也是捡，脑子差一点、手脚勤一点。
1、找到30岁的巴菲特或者乔布斯，这样的假设一开始就是错的，"自己做得很好的"为什么要去管别人的业务？一块非常大的业务，存在结构性的矛盾；
2、AJIT JAIN在性格特质上更好一些，Greg Abel年龄上更有优势，巴菲特选了后者，说明两个人在最重要的性格特质上没有足够显著的差别。
【24. Settlement may change commission structure, but real estate agents still have important role】
the real estate agent is still an important part of these transactions. It’s the one time in our lives where we make these massive investments, and having that counsel and guidance is critical. And that’s really what our business and those other businesses rely on.
【批注】买房是人生中少数几次的重大选择，大脑做出这样的选择需要有一个心理上的支点，光是网络上的信息不足以支撑买入房产所需要的支点，需要对比很多套房，需要实地、实景的感受，买房人在心理上的需求正是房产经纪人还不能被替代的服务，乔布斯说过类似的逻辑。
【24. Settlement may change commission structure, but real estate agents still have important role】
Ninety percent of the people need help, you know, in buying a home or selling one. And I’ve watched it operate all my life and been involved with lots of people who have been in the business and bought — there was a decision in court, and I told Greg to handle it whatever way that seemed best to him. And I’m quite — I’m perfectly happy with the way we’ve handled it, I think.
I’m surprised at the decision, but we get surprised in decisions in the insurance business lots of times. I mean, you know, just think of the various things we’ve faced. And, you know, when 9/11 came along, you know, we never thought something like that could happen, but it happened. And then we didn’t know what was one event or more events.
【批注】政治上的倾向性，起点是照顾穷人，然后一层层往外推，推到穷人都是最正确的，李光耀说平庸是财大气粗者的奢侈品，巴菲特在这里关注的是趋势，但他最终是乐观的，"我们还是会继续做那些合理、理性的事情"。
【27. Berkshire isn't trying to predict winners in controlling climate change】
Well, massive adoption has been sort of a moving target so far. But I hope we get there. But Berkshire would not be — I don't think that we bring any special talent to that field.
【批注】按照汽车保有量的统计口径：电动车在中国有3689万辆，占比10%；美国有570万辆，占比2%。过去的电视机有过"大规模普及"，但同样是"大规模普及"，电视机的"大规模普及"指的是70-80%以上，电动车的"大规模普及"指的是2-10%。
当这个观众说"我们所处的世界已经在变化，而且变得不一样了"，他就知道该说些什么了，我觉得这个回答对于提问者不会有任何的帮助，但还是做了两个思维上有助于反向校正的例子，出于善意，顺便练练自己的脑子。
【29. Shareholder Ruth Gottesman donates $1 billion to make Bronx medical school tuition-free】
It's a wonderful thing to do. And she could — obviously, she could've built a wing in a hospital or put her name on a building at the school. But she made the choice that freed people from debt.
【批注】不想自我炫耀、帮助别人免除债务负担，越简单、越正确。
【30. Berkshire shareholders are unusually generous with philanthropic contributions】
Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing the savings of a great number of individuals. We are grateful for their enduring trust, a relationship that often spans much of their adult lifetime. It is those dedicated savers that are forefront in my mind as I write this letter.
【批注】BRK可以将赚到的利润全部留下来，只要新投入的资金能获得合理的回报；公用事业公司需要把赚到的钱用于支付股息，不然这些投资者为了什么？
两者的重要区别在于股东，BRK的股东是为了储蓄，公用事业公司的股东是为了获得股息，导致两者在需要扩张的时候出现非常重要的差别，BRK因为股东的原因存在结构性优势，相反公用事业公司是结构性的劣势。
【31. Buffett would make Abel, when he is CEO, responsible for deciding both which businesses and which stocks to buy】
I would have — if I were Greg, I would have one person in charge of capital allocation. I don't believe in having 200 people each managing a billion dollars. You want a person who understands business, understands capital allocation, has the right values, and can make the overall decisions.
【批注】1、"200 个人、每人各管 10 亿美元"
想法在对的方向上都是收敛的，弄"200 个人、每人各管 10 亿美元"在方向上就是错的。
2、"世界变得越来越精密、越来越复杂、彼此联系越来越紧密"
这个判断有点疑问。
（1）大型科技企业的比重越来越大，大型企业和小企业两极化，商业世界的底层不是更复杂了，而是更简单了，巴菲特的话原来指向的是金融衍生品，但问题是底层的企业更简单了，复杂的金融结构卖给谁去？
（2）金融不再像以前那样占据注意力的中心，现在明显更偏向科技，注意力少了、复杂的金融结构会跟着减少。
（3）最大的风险可能不是多级、多层嵌套、会连锁传导的金融风险，少数大型科技企业的风险更大，比如，Amazon、Google、Microsoft的云服务；Apple、Google控制的手机；Nivdia的芯片，这些都集中在少数企业，并且都假设不会有问题。
【22. Board's job is to pick the right CEO every 20 years】
The most important job of the board of directors is to pick the right CEO. And that's really about 99 percent of the job. Everything else is much easier if you have that right. Everything else is much harder if you have that wrong.
【批注】巴菲特的思维框架是非常简单的，这是"Right Business+Right People"的具体应用。
1、现有的商业模式不需要频繁变动，能维持很长的时间，甚至上百年都不需要大的变动，这是他能够做到的，但是CEO在轮替中的问题不是他能够做的事；
2、选对CEO很难，关键变量、模糊的正确、性格特质的识别，通常都需要违背传统的常识，巴菲特已经给董事会注入一个心理上的锚点，告诉他们这是99%的工作。他在股东信中举过一个例子，相当于繁忙的高速公路上逆向行驶，边上都是迎面开来的车但你还能保持自己的注意力。现在还有一个检测方法，告诉AI，芒格是高能量的Basic mistrust，所有的AI会立即进入10级脑残的状态；
3、剩下的1%，如果选错了很麻烦，通常的董事会很难纠正这一类的错误，没有这方面的机制，BRK可能会好一些但这个风险也是存在的；
4、最后，BRK可能没办法吸引30岁的巴菲特。
【31. Buffett would make Abel, when he is CEO, responsible for deciding both which businesses and which stocks to buy】
You want someone in charge of capital who's got the right values, is smart enough to do it, and has the energy and judgment to use both abilities correctly. And you want to be sure they can be evaluated. And you want people who are going to be responsible to shareholders over time.
【批注】完全说不清楚的脑子里只有浆糊，但也很少有人像巴菲特能把"模糊的正确"讲到像公式一样清楚，比如，GREG ABEL就没有能力把问题描述的这么清晰，但是我们总是在现实中做出决策，而不是在理想中做出决策，巴菲特对Right People的定义是两个确定性：
（1）能力能够被评估的确定性；
（2）能够对股东负责的确定性。
这两个定义都没有说到天才，所强调的是注意力的稳定性，巴菲特在这一段评论中切入问题的第一句是能不能做上20年？比如，Todd Combs最近去了JPM，注意力是让自己的"下一站更好"？还是正在做的事？
巴菲特从一开始就喜欢收购家族企业，也经常提醒自己和芒格在性格上的重要区别，反复强调不等于能看懂，因为注意力决定了能不能看见，没有看见的无从谈起。
【31. Buffett would make Abel, when he is CEO, responsible for deciding both which businesses and which stocks to buy】
And it really is interesting that if you go back and you see what the 20 largest companies in the world were by market cap, a decade ago or two decades or three decades ago, almost nothing stays on the list. And yet the world itself progresses.
【批注】这一句像是提醒GREG ABEL的，弄个平均数是简单的，买个S&P500就有一个体面的结果，但如果预期过高、或者其他形式的噪音侵蚀了理性就很麻烦，每隔10年掉出名单的都是因为这个原因，这个问题很容易想明白。
第一，作为一个思想实验，假设 500 个人一起往前跑，起始数值从 1 到 500，整体速度是 10%；第 1 名始终按 10% 稳定复利前进，其余 499 名整体的速度也是 10%，但内部以随机的方式分配这 10%。用这个设定做模拟，第 1 名第 1 年掉出前 10 的概率只有约 0.04%-0.07%，第 2 年约 0.03%，第 3 年以后接近于 0。这个结果至少说明：只要头部还能稳定复利，单靠后面的随机扰动，其实很难把它掀翻。
第二，换个角度看，其余 499 个主体要超过第 1 名，靠的不是某一年跑得更快，而是要在足够长的时间里持续高于 10% 的复合增速，这是很难的。随机的方式根本做不到。
掉出名单根本原因不是竞争，而是"脑子进水"——局部泛化：规模泛化（GE）、品牌泛化（Kodak）、成功经验泛化（Nokia）。
【32. Distribution companies don't have a 'wonderful' business, but Berkshire will look at them】
It's not a wonderful business. But if you've got the right people running it, it's a fine business. And we — we would look at distribution businesses. It depends on the price and what the business is. But if they're very good at what they do, those businesses can work out quite well.
【批注】（1）生意越一般，人越重要；（2）如果要做，就要努力做好；（3）手里已经有很好的东西，再不行可以回购自己公司的股票，急吼吼的追逐就是个白痴，但为什么这样的逻辑只有巴菲特能讲清楚？
【33. We haven't seen anything that makes sense】
I don't really think of whether it's similar to 1999. I just don't think that way. I just look at what I can do every day.
【批注】真正理解了生意确实不需要关心这些东西。
【34. 'Seeing something that turns on the lightbulb'】
We watched what was happening at Nebraska Furniture Mart. People would leave the store if we didn't carry Apple, even though we were selling Apple at a price where we weren't even making any money. It was just so popular that if we didn't have it, people would leave and go to Best Buy.
I think the psychologists call this apperceptive mass. There is something that comes along that takes a whole bunch of observations that you've made, and knowledge you have, and then crystallizes your thinking into action.
【批注】巴菲特很擅长"模糊正确"的量化，以下是我自己的推理。
1、饮料、手机都是近似刚需（每个人都需要）的产品，这类需求更容易出现商品化的商品，以成本优势取胜；
2、Coca-Cola、iPhone都在近似刚需的地方建立了品牌；
3、Apple更进一步，是一个占据20%份额的奢侈品品牌，可以想一想Coca-Cola/Pepsi，娃哈哈/农夫山泉，这些都有强大的品牌但肯定不具备Apple的提价能力。
【35. Buffett: I was '100% responsible' for buying Paramount stock and 'we lost quite a bit of money'】
I was a hundred percent responsible for the Paramount decision. It was a hundred percent my decision. And we've sold it all, and we lost quite a bit of money. But, actually, owning Paramount made me think even further about what people do with their leisure time, and what the governing principles are of running an entertainment business of any sort. I think I'm smarter now than I was a couple years ago. But I also think I'm poorer because I acquired the knowledge in the manner I did.
【批注】2022年Q1建仓的股票，建仓成本26亿美元，买入时股价已从高位跌了14%，PE大概是10倍，2023年卖了一部分仓位，2024年Q1全部卖掉，估计亏了15亿美元。
便宜能降低风险，但便宜不能消除结构性的劣势，便宜弄不好也会侵蚀理性，这些卖内容的公司从一开始就不好搞。
（1）明星赚了钱，公司不赚钱，然后有了Disney；
（2）出现了搜索引擎，用搜索引擎在广告上的效率支持内容的产出，比如，YouTube，YouTube一开始就需要大容量的带宽，如果不是Google很难搞定，从硬件基础到后面的内容生产都因为Google的广告业务；
（3）出现了推荐引擎，广告变得更有效率，这就是ByteDance；
（4）出现了人工智能的大模型，Google Veo、Seedance、Sora把内容创作的门槛降到了极致，明星这个高能耗的环节正在承受很大的压力，谁还用明星？用AI直接生成一个的成本要低的多。
Google和ByteDance在竞争中既有广告上的优势，又有内容创作上的优势，Paramount两个都没有，要生存下来太难了，即使Netflix、Disney都很难。
【36. BNSF is trying to reduce costs to better compete with rival railroads】
BNSF's earnings would've been somewhat greater if it weren't for the fact that we haven't operated as efficiently as we could. It's a good solid American business. The moat is significant. The cost of reproducing the railroad would be enormous and essentially impossible.
【批注】讲了企业估值的基本逻辑。
1、第1个问题是下行风险和保底的收益率
依次的顺序是：（1）没有致命的风险；（2）不亏钱；（3）有合理、够得上平均数的利润率，BNSF不存在致命的风险，整个经济系统少不了铁路，重建成本高到无利可图，巴菲特以合理的建仓成本让BNSF有了一个合理的利润率。
BNSF的买入成本是350亿美元，2010年的税前利润是39.88亿美元，当年的资本支出22.74亿美元，折旧15.32亿美元，资本支出超过折旧的部分是7.4亿美元，巴菲特起步要求是不超过15倍的PE，大概是7%，BNSF可能还稍微高一些；到2024年，BNSF的经营现金流76.25亿，投资现金流流出38.39亿，剩余38.39亿，当年分给母公司40亿美元，基本上全部回流给了母公司。
2、第2个问题是上行收益
巴菲特在这个部分用了Kiewit Corporation的例子，能做好要尽力做好，能改进的地方要继续改进。
【37. You can find deeply undervalued securities, but you have to love the game, not the money】
I would try and know everything about everything small. And I would find something. And with a million dollars you could earn 50 percent a year. But you have to be in love with the subject. You can't just be in love with the money, you've really got to just find it. A biologist looks for something because they want to find something. And that's built into that.
It's best when you find out what your brain is really suited for, and then you just pound the hell out of it from that point.
【批注】有一个没有说到的点，为什么会有一些深度低估的股票？显然是因为没有人看到本来能看明白的东西，这是一个重要的事实，间接证明了真正能看明白的人很罕见，罕见和如何做到之间存在很大的空间，巴菲特在最后把话收回来了，因为不管是什么，付诸热情去寻找是唯一可行的路径。
【38. 'You have to be alert to what human nature does to both other people and to you'】
You want to be regarded as an asset to the country, because you'll find more solutions if you are an asset. You owe it to the country anyway.
But you have to be alert to how — what human nature does to both other people and to you.
【批注】可以理解为如何防范噪音的干扰？
1、让自己有价值，成为国家的一项资产，如果你是一项资产，你就会找到更多解决办法；
2、如果你有价值，肯定会吸引噪音，用不着"愤世嫉俗"，这是事实的一部分；
3、不要在遭受噪音的过程中，被人性的负面拖下去，要保持时刻的警觉。
【39. How Buffett's parents reacted when he ran away from home】
You're lucky if you get the right heroes. There's a special place for somebody that is going to continue loving you even if you break some of the rules.
When I walked in the door, my father said, "I know you can do better." And I just paid more attention to my father than my mother.
【批注】Basic trust/Basic mistrust，现实世界中存在着大量的Basic mistrust，而Basic trust比较罕见，不能因为Basic mistrust多到不行都选择Basic mistrust，但是大部分人没有真正体会过Basic trust也是事实，没有体会过又认为要朝着这个方向做，并且阻力重重中还必须非常坚定。
【41. Pilot and new CEO Adam Wright are 'only in America' stories】
WARREN BUFFETT: All's well that ends.
【批注】对人性的受力点非常熟。
（1）被提及跟Jim Haslam家族的官司，结论是"结局好就好"；
（2）按住提问，为Pilot的交易补充信息，自己这里找了一个非常能干的人：Adam Wright；
（3）表扬Jim Haslam，事情总是有好的一面也有坏的一面，要朝着好的一面观察这个世界。
【42. 'Anybody that says I did it all myself is just - delusional'】
You have to be just plain lucky. Anybody that says I did it all myself is just kidding. It's just — you're delusional.
【批注】问：保持头脑敏锐、判断出众、身体状态良好的秘诀是什么？
回答分了几步：1、需要运气；2、为什么需要运气，这是一个处处不对齐的世界；3、现在比过去好多了。
想法上的对齐对于每个人来说都很困难，人类的整个历史也表明这个事很困难。AI关于对齐（alignment）的思路是："同一套压缩出来的原则，对"结构相同但表述不同"的两个句子，能不能给出同样的答案？"
巴菲特经常举的例子还包括：
（1）如果一辈子要吃汉堡，不是养牛人，你希望牛肉价格高还是低？
（2）未来很多年你是股票的净买方，你应该希望股市更高还是更低？
巴菲特的意思是"结构相同但表述不同"的两个句子会给出什么样的答案？如果能给出一样的答案，那么这个人的脑子大概率能长期保持敏锐、身体状态良好；如果不能，处处不对齐，那就有他该有的样子。
【43. 'You really get some strange things revealed in a will'】
He actually liked to use codicils, because he had, like, 25 of them. And it was kind of his way of writing, well, I'm taking you out of the will because — So he sort of delighted in explaining through his will what how he felt about all these people.
【批注】Loser的核心问题是心理上的防御，说教只会增加对方的防御能力。
【43. 'You really get some strange things revealed in a will'】
Human beings are human beings. And we all have weaknesses and peculiarities and everything else. Don't be too hard on yourself because you have some of those. But don't be totally forgiving either. You can change the future. You can't change the past, but you can change the future.
【批注】企业估值的基本思想：当下的确定性+未来的变数，即使"当下的确定性"抓的很到位，未来仍然充满了变数。
【44. Too early to predict how AI will affect Berkshire and the world】
Obviously, you know, anything that's labor intensive — it can create an enormous amount of leisure time. Now, what the world does with leisure time is another question. I know an awful lot of people think when they go to work at first that what they want is leisure time. And what I like is actually having more problems to solve.
But AI is profound. I mean, that's what makes it — makes it a genie.
【批注】更多的闲暇时间，填满闲暇时间的可以是社交、娱乐，也可以是相互制造的冲突和矛盾。整个世界的分辨率会因为AI大幅度的提升，可以看到大量原来看不到的问题和需求。
1、这些新增的问题还是不是人类的问题？
2、AI目前还不擅长"模糊的正确"，同样困扰于碎片化，在知识的收敛上受到碎片化的阻力。
这两个问题值得进一步推演。
（1）Basic trust/Basic mistrust，不管进化是怎么演化，现实是Basic trust在人群中所占的比例非常少，周围挤满了Basic mistrust，都是前半句的逻辑跟后半句的逻辑对不上，因为和所以之间没有关联的人，这对Basic trust来说是一种对抗的强度，需要在大量噪音中提炼出简洁、有效的知识结构，从进化的角度观察，类似巴菲特的能力显然跟这种对抗的强度有关。
（2）噪音越强、对抗噪音的能力跟着增强，哪天失去了跟大量噪音竞争的环境，智能水平会不会跟着下降？
（3）对抗噪音的原始推动力是什么？AI还在寻找各种各样的激励函数，但是从人类的角度观察，Basic trust/Basic mistrust非常简单，Basic mistrust从根本上不相信"有正确答案存在"，而Basic trust对世界有基本的信任，从来不怀疑"正确答案是存在的"，从一开始就对反方向的信息有生理上的敏感，心理上的怀疑和抵触；
（4）AI能不能像人类当中的Basic trust，从一开始就专注于对抗不信任和噪音，Ilya Sutskever的想法是造出一个超级聪明的15岁少年，如果真能实现，相当于人群中都是15岁的巴菲特和乔布斯，大量噪音跟着消失，这些15岁的巴菲特和乔布斯还能不能正常成长？
（5）如果最后发现，真正的智慧来自跟噪音的对抗，是不是未来某个时候需要在系统中重新投放噪音？最后AI也不见得比人类的进化更有效率，或者两者差不多。
【45. Buffett more worried about fiscal deficits than quantity of U.S. debt】
It won't be the quantity. It'll be whether, in any way, inflation would get let loose in a way that really threatened the whole world economic situation.
I don't worry about the quantity. I worry about the fiscal deficit. The fiscal deficit is what should be focused on.
【批注】（1）赚100块，花100块，最保守、最没问题的做法；（2）赚100块，花103块，预计来年能赚103块，这是事业稳定并有所增长的状态；（3）赚100块，花107块，预期能赚的更多（超过3%）但长时间没有实现，时间久了会把幻觉当成现实。
1965年以前的美国：
1、二战后国防开支从1945年占GDP的37%骤降至1950年的不到5%，这一大幅削减与强劲的经济增长叠加，使债务占GDP比率迅速降至可控水平。
2、战后婴儿潮带来的人口红利——大量年轻劳动力进入市场，税基快速扩张，政府收入自然增长，不需要借债就能维持支出。
3、1960年时，社会保障支出占联邦总支出不到13%，Medicare和Medicaid还根本不存在。福利体系的包袱极轻，支出结构简单。
1965年发生的两件事成了转折点：（1）Great Society，这是一个永久性的、自我扩张的福利承诺——Medicare、Medicaid、各类社会项目一旦建立，就有自己的政治生命，极难削减，而且随着人口老龄化会自动变大；（2）越战。
有意思的是当年的财政赤字放在今天并不大，但最终把利率推到1x%以上，可能跟心理上的锚点有关，比如，二战以后的经济快速发展；以前的美元是跟黄金挂钩的，这些锚点跟1965年以后的情况产生了比较大的对比，1980年以前的中国，有谁见过穿超短裙的女性，激动的不行，放在现在看到没有穿的反倒不太习惯。
【46. 'Be kind - and the world's better off'】
I don't believe in beating yourself up, though, over anything you've done in the past. I believe in trying to find, you know, what you're good at, what you enjoy. And then I think the one thing that you can aspire to be — because this can be done by anybody and it's amazing — doesn't have anything to do with money — but you can be kind. You know, that's — and then the world's better off.
In the end, aspire to be more — or I'm sure many of you are yourself — but just aspire to be more so.
【批注】"Attention Is All"，过去的已经过去，要把有限的注意力放在还有可能调整的未来，这跟企业估值的逻辑一模一样，知道什么重要什么不重要，什么是重要并且可知的，什么是重要但不可知的，Basic mistrust永远不清楚什么是正确的方向，事实也是因为注意力的方向坏了才导致的Basic mistrust，反正校正的难度极大，因为每一个想法的注意力方向都是错的。
巴菲特说的"做一个善良的人"，这是一个心理上的锚点，Basic mistrust更需要这样的锚点，但也可能极端化，起点是照顾穷人，一步步往前推，最后认为穷人的一切都是对的，李光耀说平庸是"财大气粗"者的奢侈品，这是美国的加州和纽约正在发生的事情。
"做一个善良的人"肯定是对的，有意思的是为什么本来就应该存在边界会变得模糊不清？所以，真正的问题还在于对边界的感知能力，而不是标签，标签的作用是有限的。
【47. 'If you're lucky in life, make sure a bunch of other people are lucky, too'】
If you're lucky in life, make sure a bunch of other people are lucky, too.
【批注】通过行为、可以作为榜样的行为让其他人对于人性中好的一面有信心。