Operator

主持人

Good afternoon, everyone and welcome to Tesla's Fourth Quarter 2024 Q&A Webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, the Head of Investor Relations here at Tesla, and I am joined today by Elon Musk and Vaibhav Taneja and a number of other executives. Our Q4 results were announced at about 3.00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

大家下午好，欢迎参加特斯拉2024年第四季度问答网络直播。我是特斯拉投资者关系负责人Travis Axelrod，今天与我一同参加会议的还有Elon Musk、Vaibhav Taneja以及其他多位高管。我们的第四季度业绩在美国中部时间下午3点左右发布，并已在与本次网络直播相同链接上公布的更新报告中披露。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the question-and-answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue.

在本次会议中，我们将讨论我们的业务前景并发表前瞻性声明。这些评论基于我们截至今日的预测和预期。由于各种风险和不确定性（包括我们最近向SEC提交文件中提到的那些风险），实际事件或结果可能会有重大差异。在本次问答环节中，请每位参与者限制提问一个问题及一个跟进问题。请使用举手按钮加入提问队列。

Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

在我们进入问答环节之前，Elon将作开场致辞。Elon？

Elon Musk

Thank you. So, in summary, in Q4, we set a record and delivered vehicles at an annualized rate of nearly 2 million a year. So, congratulations to the Tesla team on excellent work, achieving record production and deliveries.

谢谢。简而言之，在第四季度，我们创下了纪录，年化交付量接近200万辆。因此，祝贺特斯拉团队出色完成创纪录的生产和交付任务。

Model Y was the best-selling vehicle of any kind for 2024. That's worth noting. Not just the best electric vehicle, the best vehicle of any kind on earth, number one was Model Y.

2024年，Model Y是所有车型中销量最好的，这一点值得注意。不仅是最好的电动车，而是全球所有车辆中销量第一的是Model Y。

We're staying focused on maximizing volumes and obviously doubling down for, I don't know what, it really, I was going to say doubling down on autonomy, but really it's like autonomy is like 10x-ing. Frankly, doubling is not even enough.

我们正专注于最大化产量，并且显然在加大投入，我本来打算说加大对自动驾驶的投入，但实际上自动驾驶的提升就像是10倍的增长，坦白说，仅仅翻倍都远远不够。

We made many critical investments in 2024 in manufacturing AI and robotics that will bear immense fruit in the future, immense. Like it's, in fact, to such a scale that it is difficult to comprehend.

我们在2024年在制造业、人工智能和机器人领域进行了许多关键投资，这些投资未来将结出巨大成果，确实是规模之大令人难以想象。

And I've said this before, and I'll stand by it. I see a path, I'm not saying it's an easy path, but I see a path for Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far, not even close.

Like, maybe several times more than, I mean, there is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined. There's a path to that.

也许，特斯拉的价值将是紧随其后的五家公司总和的好几倍，确实存在这样一条路。

I mean, I think it's like an incredibly, just like a difficult path, but it is an achievable path.

我的意思是，我认为这是一条极其艰难但可实现的道路。

So—and that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots.

这一切主要归功于自动驾驶车辆和自主类人机器人的发展。

So, our focus is actually building towards that. And that's where we're laying the ground. We laid the groundwork for that in 2024. We'll continue to lay the groundwork for that in 2025.

因此，我们的重点正是为此而建设。我们正为此打下基础，我们在2024年已经奠定了基础，并将在2025年继续夯实这一基础。

In fact, more than laid the groundwork actually, so it would be building the structure, it’d be we're building the manufacturing lines and like—like, setting up for what I think will be an epic 2026 and a ridiculous ‘27 and ‘28. Ridiculously good. That is my prediction.

实际上，不仅仅是打基础，而是在构建整个体系，我们正在建立生产线，为我认为将是史诗级的2026年以及惊人的2027和2028年做准备。好到令人难以置信，这就是我的预测。

As yet, very few people understand the value of Full Self Driving and our ability to monetize the fleet.

至今，极少人理解全自动驾驶的价值以及我们将车队变现的能力。

I've—some of these things I've said for quite a long time and I know people said, "Well, Elon is the boy who cried wolf" like several times, but I'm telling you there's a damn wolf this time and you can drive it.

In fact, it can drive you. It's a self-driving wolf.

事实上，它可以开车送你，它是一只自动驾驶的狼。

For a lot of people, like their experience of Tesla autonomy is like, if it's even a year old, if it's even two years old, it's like meeting someone when they're like a toddler and thinking that they're going to be a toddler forever.

对很多人来说，他们对特斯拉自动驾驶的体验就像是遇到一个只有一两岁的幼儿，并以为他会永远停留在幼儿阶段。

But obviously they're not going to be a toddler forever if they grow up.

但显然，长大后他们不会永远是幼儿。

But if their last experience was like, FSD was a toddler, it's like, well, it's grown up now. Have you seen it? It's like walks and talks.

但如果他们最后的体验是全自动驾驶还是个幼儿，那么现在它已经长大了。你见过吗？它已经能行走、能交流。

And that's really what we've got. And it's difficult for people to understand this because human intuition is linear as opposed to what we're seeing is exponential progress.

这正是我们拥有的技术。而人们很难理解这一点，因为人类的直觉是线性的，而我们看到的进展却是指数级的。

So, that's why my number one recommendation for anyone who doubts is simply try it. Have you tried it? When's the last time you tried it?

因此，我对所有怀疑者的首要建议就是试一试。你试过了吗？你上一次试是什么时候？

And the only people who are skeptical, the only people who are skeptical are those who have not tried it.

而唯一持怀疑态度的人，只是那些还没有试过的人。

So, a car goes—a passenger car typically has only about 10 hours of utility per week out of 168. A very small percentage.

一辆汽车——一辆乘用车通常每周在168小时中只能使用大约10小时，这只是极小的一部分。

Once that car is autonomous, my rough estimate is that it is in use for at least a third of the hours of the week.

So, call it 50, maybe 55 hours of the week.

And it can be useful both for cargo delivery and people delivery.

它既可用于货物配送，也可用于人员运输。

So, even let's say people are asleep, but you can deliver packages in the middle of the night or resupply restaurants or whatever the case may be, whatever people need at all hours of the day or night.

That same asset, the thing that these things that already exist with no incremental cost change, just a software update, now have five times or more the utility than they currently have.

这同一资产，这些原本无需额外成本（仅需软件更新）就存在的设施，现在的效用将是当前的五倍甚至更多。

I think this will be the largest asset value increase in human history.

我认为这将是人类历史上最大的资产价值提升。

Maybe there's something bigger, but I just don't know what it is.

也许还有更大的，但我实在不知道是什么。

And so people who look in the rearview mirror are looking for past precedent, except I don't think there is one.

因此，那些回顾过去的人在寻找先例，但我认为并不存在这样的先例。

So—but the reality of autonomy is upon us. And I repeat my advice, try driving the car or let it drive you.

但自动驾驶的现实已经来临。我再次建议，试着驾驶这辆车，或者让它开车送你。

So, now it works very well in the US, but of course it will over time work just as well everywhere else.

目前在美国运行得非常好，但随着时间推移，它在其他地方也会同样出色。

So, we're working hard to grow our annual volumes.

因此，我们正努力提高年度产量。

Our constraint this year—our current constraint is battery packs this year, but we're working on addressing that constraint.

今年我们的制约因素是电池组，但我们正致力于解决这一问题。

And I think we will make progress on addressing that constraint.

我认为我们将在解决这一问题上取得进展。

And then things are really going to go ballistic next year, and really ballistic in ‘27 and ‘28. So, yeah.

然后，明年情况将会迅速激增，2027年和2028年更将达到爆炸性增长。就是这样。

So, a bit more on Full Self Driving.

再谈一点全自动驾驶。

Our Q4 Vehicle Safety Report shows continued year-over-year improvement in safety for vehicles so that the safety numbers, if somebody has supervised Full Self Driving turned on or not, the safety differences are gigantic.

我们的第四季度车辆安全报告显示，无论是否启用监督型全自动驾驶，车辆安全性同比持续改善，安全数据差异巨大。

And people have seen the immense improvement with Version 13 and with incremental versions in Version 13 and then Version 14 is going to be yet another step beyond that that is very significant.

人们已经看到了版本13以及其增量改进带来的巨大提升，而版本14将进一步迈出非常重要的一步。

We launched the Cortex training cluster at Gigafactory Austin, which was a significant contributor to FSD advancement, and we continue to invest in training infrastructure out of Texas headquarters.

我们在奥斯汀超级工厂推出了Cortex训练集群，这对全自动驾驶的进步起到了重要推动作用，我们也继续在德州总部投资培训基础设施。

So, the training needs for Optimus or Optimus humanoid robot are probably at least ultimately 10x of what's needed for the car, at least to get to the full range of useful roles.

因此，Optimus或Optimus类人机器人的训练需求可能最终至少是汽车所需的10倍，至少足以涵盖所有有用的角色。

You can say, how many different roles are there for a humanoid robot versus a car?

你可以问，一个类人机器人与汽车相比，有多少种不同的角色？

Humanoid robot has probably, well, 1000 times more uses and more complex things than in a car.

类人机器人可能有大约1000倍于汽车的用途和更复杂的应用。

That doesn't mean the training scales by a 1000, but it's probably 10x.

这并不意味着训练成本会增长1000倍，但大概是10倍。

Now you can do this progressively.

现在你可以逐步实现这一点。

So it doesn't mean like, or Tesla is going to spend like $500 billion in training compute.

这并不意味着特斯拉会在训练计算上花费5000亿美元。

Because we obviously train Optimus to do enough tasks to match the output of Optimus robots.

因为我们显然会训练Optimus完成足够多的任务，以匹配Optimus机器人的产出。

And obviously, the cost of training is dropping dramatically with time.

而且显然，随着时间的推移，训练成本正在急剧下降。

So, it is one of those things where I think long-term, Optimus will be—Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue.

因此，我认为从长远来看，Optimus有潜力创造超过10万亿美元的收入。

Like, it's really bananas. So that you can obviously afford a lot of training compute in that situation.

真是疯狂，所以在那种情况下，你们显然可以负担得起大量的训练计算资源。

In fact, even $500 billion training compute in that situation would be quite a good deal.

实际上，即使是5000亿美元的训练计算成本，在那种情况下也绝对划算。

Yeah. The future's going to be incredibly different from the past, that's for sure.

是的，未来肯定会与过去截然不同。

We live at this unbelievable inflection point in human history. So, yeah.

我们正处于人类历史上一个难以置信的转折点。所以，没错。

So, the proof is in the pudding.

事实胜于雄辩。

So, we're going to be launching unsupervised Full Self Driving as a paid service in Austin in June.

因此，我们将在六月于奥斯汀推出无人监管全自动驾驶作为一项付费服务。

So—and I've talked with the team.

我已经和团队讨论过。

We feel confident in being able to do an initial launch of unsupervised, no one in the car, Full Self Driving in Austin in June.

我们对在六月在奥斯汀初步推出无人监管、车内无人驾驶的全自动驾驶充满信心。

We already have Tesla's operating autonomously unsupervised Full Self Driving at our factory in Fremont and we’ll soon be doing that at our factory in Texas.

我们已经在加利福尼亚Fremont工厂实现了特斯拉的无人监管全自动驾驶，且很快将在德州的工厂实现这一点。

So, thousands of cars every day are driving with no one in them at our Fremont factory in California.

每天有成千上万辆车在我们加州Fremont工厂无人驾驶。

They will soon be doing that in Austin and then elsewhere in the world for the rest of our factories which is pretty cool.

不久后，这一模式将在奥斯汀及全球其他工厂推广，真是酷毙了。

And the cars aren't just driving to exactly the same spot because obviously it all, [went and collide] (ph) at the same spot.

而且这些车并非只是驶向同一个固定地点，因为显然所有车辆如果都集中在同一地点会发生碰撞。

The cars are actually programmed with what lane they need to park in to be picked up for delivery.

这些车实际上被编程设定在指定的车道上停车，以便被取走送货。

So, they drive from the factory end of line to their specific— to their destination parking spot and then could be picked up for delivery to customers and then doing this reliably every day, thousands of times a day.

因此，它们从工厂生产线的终点驶向特定的目的停车位，然后被取走送到客户手中，每天数以千计次地可靠运行。

It's pretty cool.

非常酷。

Like I said, the Teslas will be in the wild with no one in them, in June in Austin.

正如我所说，到六月，在奥斯汀，特斯拉将在野外无人驾驶。

So, what I'm saying is this is not some far-off mythical situation.

所以，我的意思是，这并不是一个遥不可及的神话情境。

It's literally, five, six months away, five months away kind of thing.

实际上，仅仅五到六个月之遥，就是这么近。

And while we're stepping into—putting our toe in the water gently at first, just to make sure everything's cool, our solution is a generalized AI solution.

在我们初步试探、谨慎进入这一领域时，我们的解决方案是一种通用AI解决方案。

It does not require high precision maps of a locality.

它不需要对某个区域有高精度地图。

So we just want to be cautious.

因此，我们只想保持谨慎。

It's not that it doesn't work beyond Austin. In fact, it does.

这并不意味着它在奥斯汀以外无法运行，实际上它能运行。

We just want to be, put a toe in the water, make sure everything is okay, then put a few more toes in the water, then put a foot in the water with safety of the general public and those in the car as our top priority.

我们只是想先试探一下，确保一切正常，然后逐步扩大，最终确保公众和车内人员的安全作为首要任务。

With regard to Optimus, obviously I'm making these revenue predictions that sound absolutely insane. I realize that.

关于Optimus，显然我所作的这些收入预测听起来简直疯狂，我知道这一点。

But they are, I think, they will prove to be accurate.

但我认为它们最终会被证明是准确的。

Now, with Optimus, there's a lot of uncertainty on the exact timing, because it's not like a train arriving at the station for Optimus.

对于Optimus，确切的时间存在很大不确定性，因为这不像火车准时到站那样。

We are designing the train and the station in real time while also building the tracks.

我们正在实时设计火车、车站，同时建设轨道。

And so they're like, people shouldn’t say, “Why didn't the train arrive exactly at 12:05?”

所以人们不应当说，“为什么火车没有在12:05准时到达？”

We're literally designing the train, the track, and the station in real time while you're asking how we can predict this thing with absolute precision. It's impossible.

我们正是在实时设计火车、轨道和车站，而你问如何能以绝对精确预测这一切，这是不可能的。

The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year.

公司内部计划通常要求今年大约生产10,000台Optimus机器人。

Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will.

我们能否精确在今年12月底前生产10,000台？可能做不到，但我们肯定能生产出数千台，我认为我们会做到。

Will those several thousand Optimus robots be doing useful things by the end of the year? Yes, I'm confident they will do useful things.

这些数千台Optimus机器人到年底能发挥作用吗？我有信心它们会发挥作用。

The Optimus in use at the Tesla factories, production design one, will inform what we change for production design two, which we expect to launch next year.

在特斯拉工厂使用的Optimus机器人（第一代生产设计）将为我们改进第二代生产设计提供依据，我们预计将在明年推出。

And our goal is to ramp Optimus production faster than maybe anything's ever been ramped.

我们的目标是让Optimus的生产速度超过以往任何产品的增长速度。

Meaning, like aspirationally an order of magnitude ramp per year.

也就是说，理想状态下每年实现十倍级别的增长。

Now, if we aspire to an order of magnitude ramp per year, perhaps we only end up with a half order of magnitude per year.

如果我们期望每年十倍增长，可能最终只能达到每年五倍增长。

But that's the kind of growth that we're talking about.

但这就是我们所讨论的那种增长。

It doesn't take very many years before we're making 100 million of these things a year.

不需要很多年，我们每年就能生产出1亿台这样的机器人。

If you go up by, let's say, a factor of 5x per year, insane. Not 50%, 500%.

如果每年增长5倍，那真是疯狂，不是50%，而是500%。

So, these are big growth numbers. Yeah.

所以，这些都是巨大的增长数字。是的。

But we do need to be—this is an entirely new supply chain, entirely new technology.

但我们确实需要注意——这是一条全新的供应链，全新的技术。

There's nothing off the shelf to use.

没有现成的产品可供使用。

We try desperately with Optimus to use any existing motors, any actuators, sensors—nothing worked for our humanoid robot at any price.

我们在Optimus项目中拼尽全力试图利用任何现有的电机、执行器、传感器——但对于我们的类人机器人来说，无论价格多高，都没有一种可行。

We had to design everything from physics first principles to work for a humanoid robot and with the most sophisticated hand that has ever been made before, by far.

我们不得不从物理基本原理出发，设计一切，使之适用于类人机器人，并打造出迄今为止最复杂的手。

And Optimus will be able to, like, play the piano and be able to thread a needle.

Optimus将能够演奏钢琴，并能穿针引线。

I mean, this is the level of precision no one has been able to achieve.

这种精度是前所未有的。

And so it's really something special. So, yeah, so—and my prediction long term is that Optimus will be overwhelmingly the value of the company.

因此，这真的是非常特别的东西。所以，是的，我长期预测Optimus将成为公司价值的主要来源。

Regarding energy, back to Earth. Mr. Elon, can you come back here for a minute?

说到能源，回到现实问题。Elon先生，请回到这里一下好吗？

Okay, back to Earth. Energy storage is a big deal and will become—it's already super important—will become incredibly important in the future.

好的，回到现实。能源存储是一件大事，已经非常重要，将来只会变得更加重要。

And it is something that enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible.

它使得向电网输出的能量远超过目前的可能性。

Because the grid—the vast majority of the grid—has no energy storage capability.

因为电网——绝大部分电网——没有能源存储能力。

So, they have to design the power plants for very high peaks and assume that there's no energy storage.

因此，电厂必须为非常高的负荷峰值而设计，并假设没有能源存储。

Once you have grid energy storage and home-based energy storage, the actual total energy output per year of the grid is dramatically greater than people think. Maybe it's at least double.

一旦拥有了电网和家庭能源存储，电网每年的总能量输出将远远超过人们的预期，可能至少是现在的两倍。

This will drive the demand for stationary battery packs, and especially the grid-scale ones, to insane levels—basically as much demand as we could possibly make.

这将推动对固定式电池组，尤其是电网级电池组的需求达到疯狂的水平——基本上就是我们能创造出的所有需求。

So, we have our second factory, which is in Shanghai, that's starting operation and we're building a third factory.

因此，我们在上海的第二家工厂已经开始运营，我们正在建设第三家工厂。

So, we're trying to ramp output of the stationary battery storage as quickly as possible.

因此，我们正努力尽快提高固定式电池存储的产能。

Now, there is a challenge here where we have to be careful that we're not robbing one pocket to fund another because for a given gigawatt-hour per year of the cell output, we have to decide: does it go into stationary applications or mobile applications? It can't go both.

现在，这里有一个挑战，我们必须小心，不能用一个领域的钱来补贴另一个领域，因为对于每年每吉瓦时的电池输出，我们必须决定：这些能量是用于固定应用还是移动应用？它不能同时用于两者。

So, we have to make that trade-off. Yeah.

因此，我们必须做出这样的权衡。是的。

But overall, the demand for total gigawatt-hours of batteries, whether mobile or stationary, will grow in a very, very big way over time.

但总体来说，无论是移动还是固定应用，电池总吉瓦时的需求随着时间推移都将大幅增长。

So, in conclusion, 2025 really is a pivotal year for Tesla.

总之，2025年确实是特斯拉的一个关键年份。

And when we look back on 2025 and the launch of unsupervised Full Self Driving—true, real-world AI that actually works—I think they may regard it as the biggest year in Tesla history, maybe even bigger than our first car, the Roadster, or the Model S, Model 3, or Model Y.

当我们回顾2025年以及无人监管全自动驾驶的推出——真正能运作的现实世界AI——我认为那可能会被视为特斯拉历史上最大的一年，甚至可能超过我们的第一辆车Roadster，或Model S、Model 3、Model Y。

In fact, I think it probably will be viewed as maybe the most important year in Tesla's history.

实际上，我认为它可能会被视为特斯拉历史上最重要的一年。

There is no company in the world that is as good at real-world AI as Tesla.

世界上没有哪家公司像特斯拉那样擅长现实世界的AI。

I don't even know who's in second place. Like, who is in second place for real-world AI? I would need a very big telescope to see them.

我甚至不知道谁能排在第二位。比如，谁在现实世界的AI方面排第二？我可能需要一个非常大的望远镜才能看见他们。

That's how far behind they are.

这就是他们落后的程度。

All right.

好了。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much, Elon. And, Vaibhav has some opening remarks as well.

特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德：

很好。非常感谢你，埃隆。另外，瓦伊巴夫也有一些开场白。

Vaibhav Taneja

Yeah, I'll talk about things on Earth. As Elon mentioned, in Q4, we set records in vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments in an uncertain macro environment. We were able to grow auto and energy storage volumes both sequentially and on a year-on-year basis. For this, I would like to thank the efforts of everyone at Tesla to make this a reality and our customers who helped us achieve this feat.

瓦伊巴夫·塔内加：

好的，我来谈谈地球上的事情。正如埃隆提到的，在第四季度，我们在不确定的宏观环境下创下了汽车交付和能源存储部署的记录。我们的汽车和能源存储业务量都实现了环比和同比增长。为此，我要感谢特斯拉所有员工的努力使这一切成为现实，也感谢帮助我们实现这一壮举的客户。

Coming into the fourth quarter, our focus was to reduce inventory levels in the automotive business and we accomplished that by ending the quarter with the lowest finished good inventory in the last two years. This was a result of offering not only attractive financing options but also other discounts and programs which impacted ASPs. While we saw volume growth in almost all regions that we operate in, we hit a new record for deliveries in the Greater China market. This is an encouraging trend since we grew volume in a highly competitive BEV market.

进入第四季度，我们的重点是降低汽车业务的库存水平，我们通过使季度末的成品库存达到两年来的最低水平实现了这一目标。这是由于我们不仅提供了具有吸引力的融资选择，还提供了其他折扣和计划，这些都影响了平均售价。虽然我们在几乎所有运营地区都看到了销量增长，但我们在大中华市场的交付量创下了新纪录。这是一个令人鼓舞的趋势，因为我们在竞争激烈的电动汽车市场中实现了销量增长。

On the automotive margin front, we saw a quarter-over-quarter decline primarily due to lower ASPs and due to the recognition of FSD related revenue in Q3 from feature releases. Our journey on cost reduction continues, and we were able to get our overall cost per car down below $35,000, primarily by material costs. This was despite increased depreciation and other costs as we prepare for the transition to the new Model Y for which we recently started taking orders in all markets.

在汽车利润率方面，我们看到环比下降，主要是由于平均售价下降以及第三季度确认了全自动驾驶功能发布相关的收入。我们继续推进成本降低，成功将每辆车的总成本降至35,000美元以下，主要是通过降低材料成本实现的。尽管为了准备过渡到新款Model Y而增加了折旧和其他成本，我们最近已经在所有市场开始接受订单。

All our factories will start producing the new Model Y next month while we feel confident in our team's abilities to ramp production quickly, know that it is an unprecedented change and we are not aware of anybody else taking the best-selling car on the planet and updating all factories at the same time. This changeover will result in several weeks of lost production in the quarter. As a result, margins will be impacted due to idle capacity and other ramp related costs, as is common in any launch, but will be overcome as production is ramped.

我们所有的工厂将在下个月开始生产新款Model Y，虽然我们对团队快速提升产能的能力有信心，但要知道这是一个前所未有的变化，我们不知道还有谁会对全球销量最好的汽车同时在所有工厂进行更新。这次转换将导致本季度损失几周的产量。因此，利润率将受到闲置产能和其他提升相关成本的影响，这在任何产品发布时都是常见的，但随着产量的提升这些影响将会被克服。

We will be introducing several new products throughout 2025. We are still on track to launch a more affordable model in the first half of 2025 and will continue to expand our lineup from there. From a dollar-for-dollar basis, we believe we have the most compelling lineup today compared to the industry, and it will continue to get better from here. As always, all our products come with the best software in the industry, autonomy features and capable of full autonomy in the future. And despite the premium experience, the total cost of ownership is close to mass market, less premium competitors.

我们将在2025年全年推出几款新产品。我们仍然按计划在2025年上半年推出一款更实惠的车型，并将从那里开始继续扩大我们的产品线。从性价比的角度来看，我们相信我们今天拥有业内最具吸引力的产品线，而且会继续变得更好。一如既往，我们所有的产品都配备了业内最好的软件、自动驾驶功能，并且未来能够实现完全自动驾驶。尽管提供高端体验，但总拥有成本接近大众市场，低于高端竞争对手。

Energy storage deployments reached an all-time high in Q4, and this -- and resulted in -- but declined sequentially. This was a result of higher -- sorry, growth came from Megapack and Powerwall. Both businesses continue to be supply constrained, and like Elon mentioned, we're trying to ramp up production with Megafactory Shanghai coming online this quarter onwards. While quarterly deployments will likely continue to fluctuate sequentially, we expect at least 50% growth in deployments year-over-year in 2025.

能源存储部署在第四季度达到历史新高，但环比下降。这是因为 -- 抱歉，增长来自Megapack和Powerwall。这两项业务继续受到供应限制，正如埃隆提到的，我们正试图通过本季度开始投产的上海超级工厂来提升产能。虽然季度部署量可能会继续出现波动，但我们预计2025年的部署量同比增长至少50%。

Gross profit and margins in the service and other business was up year-over-year but declined sequentially. This was the result of higher service center costs and lower profit from used car business. The businesses within service and other primarily support our new car business, especially through their impact on total cost of ownership. Therefore, while we manage them to be positive on a GAAP basis, we do not expect similar margins as the rest of the business.

服务和其他业务的毛利润和利润率同比上升但环比下降。这是由于服务中心成本上升和二手车业务利润下降造成的。服务和其他业务内的业务主要支持我们的新车业务，特别是通过它们对总拥有成本的影响。因此，虽然我们在GAAP基础上管理它们使其保持盈利，但我们不期望它们能达到与其他业务相似的利润率。

There's a lot of uncertainty around tariffs. Over the years, we've tried to localize our supply chain in every market, but we are still very reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses. Therefore, the imposition of tariffs, which is very likely, and any [Indiscernible] will have an impact on our business and profitability.

关税方面存在很多不确定性。多年来，我们一直努力在每个市场实现供应链本地化，但我们所有业务仍然非常依赖来自世界各地的零部件。因此，很可能会实施的关税和任何[听不清]都将对我们的业务和盈利能力产生影响。

Our operating expenses grew both year-over-year and sequentially. The biggest driver of the increase was R&D as we continue to invest in AI-related initiatives. The remaining increase came from growth in our sales capabilities and marketing efforts from referral program. For 2025, we expect operating expenses to increase to support our growth initiatives.

我们的运营费用同比和环比都有增长。增长的最大驱动因素是研发，因为我们继续投资于人工智能相关的计划。其余的增长来自销售能力的提升和推荐计划的营销努力。对于2025年，我们预计运营费用将增加以支持我们的增长计划。

It is important to point out that the net income in Q4 was impacted by a $600 million mark-to-market benefit from Bitcoin due to the adoption of a new accounting standard for digital assets, whereby we will change -- we will take mark-to-market adjustments through other income every reporting period going forward.

需要指出的是，第四季度的净收入受到了比特币6亿美元市值收益的影响，这是由于采用了新的数字资产会计准则，我们将改变 -- 我们将在未来的每个报告期间通过其他收入进行市值调整。

Our free cash flow for the quarter was $2 billion, and despite CapEx increase of over $2.4 billion in 2024, we were able to generate free cash flow of $3.6 billion for the year. CapEx efficiency is something we are extremely focused on. While we have invested in AI-related initiatives, we have done so in a very targeted manner to utilize the spend to get immediate benefits. The build-out of Cortex was accelerated because of the role -- actually to accelerate the rollout of FSD Version 13. Accumulative AI-related CapEx, including infrastructure, so far has been approximately $5 billion. And for 2025, we expect our CapEx to be flat on a year-over-year basis.

我们本季度的自由现金流为20亿美元，尽管2024年资本支出增加了超过24亿美元，我们仍然能够在全年产生36亿美元的自由现金流。资本支出效率是我们极其关注的事项。虽然我们投资了人工智能相关的计划，但我们是以非常有针对性的方式进行的，以便利用支出获得即时效益。Cortex的建设因为其作用而加速 -- 实际上是为了加速推出FSD第13版。到目前为止，包括基础设施在内的累计人工智能相关资本支出约为50亿美元。对于2025年，我们预计资本支出将同比持平。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Travis Axelrod

特拉维斯·阿克斯尔罗德

Great. Thank you very much, Vaibhav. Now, we will move over to investor questions and we'll start with say.com. The first question is, is unsupervised FSD still planned to be released in Texas and California this year? What hurdles still exist to make that happen? You addressed the Texas piece, I think, already, so...

太好了，非常感谢，Vaibhav。现在我们将转向投资者提问，并先从say.com开始。第一个问题是：无监督FSD是否仍计划在今年于德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州发布？实现这一目标还存在哪些障碍？我想你已经谈到了德州方面，所以……

Elon Musk

埃隆·马斯克

Yeah, I'm confident that we'll release unsupervised FSD in California this year as well. Yeah, in fact, I think we will most likely release unsupervised FSD in many regions of the country of the US by the end of this year. Like I said, we're just putting our toe in the water, then a few toes, then a foot, then leg, then make sure everything is cool. And we're looking for a safety level that is significantly above the average human driver. So, it's not anywhere like much safer, not like a little bit safer than human, way safer than human. So the standard has to be very high because the moment there's any kind of accident with an autonomous car, this immediately gets worldwide headlines, even though about 40,000 people die every year in car accidents in the US, and most of them don't even get a mention anywhere. But if somebody scrapes a shin with an autonomous car, it's headline news.

是的，我相信我们也会在今年于加利福尼亚州发布无监督FSD。事实上，我认为我们很有可能在今年年底之前于美国多个地区发布无监督FSD。就像我说的，我们先是试探性地把脚趾放进水里，然后再伸进几根脚趾，再到脚、腿，确保一切都没问题。我们正在寻求一个显著高于普通人类司机的安全水平。所以，不是稍微比人类更安全一点，而是比人类安全得多。因为只要一辆自动驾驶汽车出了任何事故，立刻就会成为全球头条新闻，即使在美国每年有大约四万人死于交通事故，而大部分都得不到任何报道。但是如果有人仅仅被自动驾驶汽车擦破一点皮，那就是头条新闻。

Vaibhav Taneja

We want to avoid that.

我们想要避免这种情况。

Elon Musk

埃隆·马斯克

Yeah. So it's really from an -- the only thing holding us back is an excess of caution. But people can certainly get a feel for how well the car would perform as unsupervised FSD by simply having a car, allowing the car to drive you around your city and see how many times did you have to intervene. Not where you wanted to intervene or were a little concerned. But how many times did you have to intervene for, for definite safety reasons. And you will find that that is currently very rare, and over time, almost never.

是的。所以这完全是因为——唯一阻碍我们的是过度谨慎。不过人们完全可以亲身体验一下无监督FSD的表现方式，只需拥有一辆车，让它在你的城市里带你四处行驶，看看你需要干预多少次。不是说你想要干预或有点担心的时候，而是因为明确的安全原因而必须干预的次数。你会发现，目前这种情况非常少见，随着时间的推移几乎不会发生。

Travis Axelrod

特拉维斯·阿克斯尔罗德

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, are there any discussions with other auto companies about licensing FSD?

好的，非常感谢。下一个问题是，你们是否正在与其他汽车公司讨论FSD授权事宜？

Elon Musk

埃隆·马斯克

Yes. What we're seeing is, at this point, significant interest from a number of major car companies about licensing for Tesla Full Soft Driving technology. What we've generally said is the best way to know what to do is take one of our cars apart, and then you can see where the placement of the cameras are, what the thermal needs are of the Tesla AI inference computer. That's better than us sending some CAD drawings. And then we're only going to entertain situations where the volume would be very high, otherwise it's not worth the complexity. And we will not burden our engineering team with laborious discussions with other engineering teams until we obviously have unsupervised Full Self Driving working throughout the United States. I think the interest level from other manufacturers to license an FSD will be extremely high once it is obvious that unless you have FSD, you're dead.

是的。目前，我们看到很多大型汽车厂商对特斯拉的全自动驾驶技术授权表现出了浓厚兴趣。我们通常的建议是，最好的方式是把我们的车拆开，然后你就能看到摄像头如何布置、特斯拉AI推理计算机在热管理方面的需求，这比我们直接给一些CAD图纸要好得多。接着，我们只会考虑那些出货量非常高的合作伙伴，否则增加复杂性就不值得。在我们可以在全美范围内明确实现无监督全自动驾驶之前，我们不会让我们的工程团队耗费精力与其他工程团队进行繁琐的讨论。我认为，一旦大家发现如果没有FSD就落后了，其他厂商对FSD授权的兴趣度将会非常高。

Travis Axelrod  

特拉维斯·阿克斯尔罗德  

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, is Optimus now mostly design locked for 2025 production?  

太好了，非常感谢。下一个问题是：Optimus目前是否基本锁定了2025年的设计方案？

Elon Musk  

埃隆·马斯克  

Optimus is not design locked. So, when I say like we're designing the train as it's going to -- we're redesigning the train as it’s going down the tracks while redesigning the tracks and the train stations.  

Optimus还没有锁定设计。打个比方，我们在火车行驶的同时重新设计火车本身，同时也在重新设计轨道和车站。

Vaibhav Taneja  

Every [indiscernible].  

每个[听不清]。

Elon Musk  

埃隆·马斯克  

Yeah, it's rapidly evolving. It's rapidly evolving in a good direction. It's pretty damn amazing actually. Team’s doing a fantastic job. We really have, by far, I think by far the best team of humanoid robotics engineers in the world. And we also have all the other ingredients necessary, because you need a great battery pack, you need great power electronics, you need great charging capability, you need great communications, great Wi-Fi and cellular connectivity. And of course, you need real-world AI. And then the ability to scale that production to huge levels. So you have to design for manufacturing. The things that, really what other companies are missing is they're missing the real-world AI and they're missing the ability to scale manufacturing to millions of units a year.  

是的，它在快速演变，而且是在往好的方向上迅速发展。它真的非常令人惊艳。团队干得非常棒。我认为，我们拥有全世界最优秀的人形机器人工程师团队，而且远远领先。此外，我们还具备所有其他必要要素，因为你需要一个出色的电池组，需要出色的电力电子技术，需要出色的充电能力，需要出色的通信功能、优秀的Wi-Fi和蜂窝网络连接。当然，你还需要真实世界的AI。然后要能够将生产规模扩大到一个非常大的量级。所以你必须为制造而设计。其他公司真正缺少的，是他们没有真实世界的AI，也缺乏将产量扩大到每年数百万台的能力。

Vaibhav Taneja  

I think that is an underappreciated thing that industrialization of design is a whole different thing than making a design.  

我认为这是一个不被充分重视的方面：把设计工业化和做出一个设计本身是完全不同的事情。

Elon Musk  

埃隆·马斯克  

Yeah, prototypes are trivial basically. Prototypes are easy, production is hard. I've said that for many years. The problem is that there's like, those who have never been involved in production or manufacturing somehow think that once you come up with some eureka design that you magically can make a million units a year. And this is totally false. There needs to be some Hollywood story where they show actually the problem is manufacturing. I've never even heard of one. It just doesn't fit the narrative. The Hollywood thing is like it's like some lone inventor in a garage goes Eureka and suddenly it files a patent and suddenly there's millions of units. I, like, I'm listening to guys who were missing most really 99% of the story. 1% is another old saying of one person -- like a product is 1% inspiration 99% perspiration. The Hollywood shows you 1% inspiration and minus, but forgets about the 99% perspiration of actually figuring out how to make that initial prototype manufacturable and then manufactured at high volume such that the product is reliable, low cost, consistent, doesn't break down all the time, and that is 100 times harder, at least, than the prototype.  

是的，原型基本上是最简单的。做原型很容易，量产才是难点。我多年来一直这么说。问题在于，有些从未参与过生产或制造的人，以为只要灵光一现搞出了个设计，就能神奇地实现年产一百万台。这完全是错误的。其实应该有好莱坞的故事来展示真正的问题出在制造上，但我从没听说过这样的故事。这不符合他们的叙事方式。好莱坞的套路是，一个人在车库里灵机一动，然后申请专利，结果突然就有了数百万台产品。我在听那些人讲述时发现他们其实漏掉了整件事99%的内容。还有那句老话：产品是1%的灵感加99%的汗水。好莱坞给你看的只有1%的灵感，甚至连这个都减了，却完全忽略了那99%的汗水，也就是如何让最初的原型变得可制造，然后实现大规模量产，让产品可靠、成本低、稳定，不会频繁出问题。而这个过程至少比做原型难上100倍。

Vaibhav Taneja  

Then you have to get it there, deliver it, I think, yeah.  

然后你还得把它送到那里去进行交付，我觉得是这样。

Elon Musk  

埃隆·马斯克  

Yeah, you have to meet all these regulations, and there's a million regulators around the world, it's pretty difficult.  

是的，而且你还要满足各种法规要求，全世界到处都有监管机构，这真的很难。

Travis Axelrod  

特拉维斯·阿克斯尔罗德  

Great, thank you. The next question is also Optimus related. When will Tesla start selling Optimus, and what will the price be?  

好的，谢谢。下一个问题也与Optimus有关：特斯拉什么时候开始销售Optimus，价格会是多少？

Elon Musk  

埃隆·马斯克  

Well, the -- it may -- for this year we expect to just close the loop with Optimus being used internally at Tesla, because we obviously can easily use several thousand humanoid robots at Tesla for the most boring, annoying tasks in the factory, like the tasks nobody wants to do, where we have to like beg people to do this task. And then they -- then it's like the robot's totally happy to do the boring, dangerous, repetitive task that no humans want to do. And that's also actually some of the easiest use cases for us to have Optimus do things like load the hopper, like, say you're loading the body line if you're transporting pieces of sheet metal to the robot, which is already robot, the robot welding line for the body, and you just have to nonstop take things out of a, from one fixture to another fixture. And it's a very boring job That's the kind of thing what the Optimus could do.  

嗯，今年我们的计划是先在特斯拉内部使用Optimus，把这个流程打通。因为显然我们可以在特斯拉使用几千台人形机器人来完成工厂里最枯燥、最让人烦的任务，比如那些没有人想做、我们还得去求着别人去做的工作。对机器人来说，这种枯燥、危险且重复的工作是没有问题的。其实这也是Optimus最简单的一些应用场景，例如装料斗，或者说当你给车身生产线输送金属板时，实际上你是在和已有的机器人——也就是车身焊接机器人——协作，需要不停地把东西从一个工装夹具转移到另一个工装夹具。那是一项非常无聊的工作，而这正是Optimus可以做的事情。

Vaibhav Taneja  

瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾  

The guy who runs around all the wall studs and the pins.  

那个到处跑，负责墙体支柱和销钉的人。  

Elon Musk  

埃隆·马斯克  

Yeah, there's a ton of boring jobs, tedious jobs, dangerous, slightly dangerous jobs that are perfect for Optimus. So we expect to use Optimus for those tasks at our factories and that'll help us close loop for improvement this year. It really was the production Version 2 which I think launches sometime next year. I'd like it to be the beginning of next year but maybe it's more like the middle of next year. And then we have to -- with a production line that is designed for -- on the order of 10,000 units a month versus 1,000 units a month. So, when you're designing a production line for 1,000 units a month, it takes you a while to actually reach anywhere close to 1,000 units a month. For any given production output, it takes a while to actually reach its potential. The current line that we're designing is for roughly 1,000 units a month of Optimus robots. The next line would be for 10,000 units a month. The line after that would be for 100,000 units a month. And I think probably with Version 2, it is a very rough guess because there's so much uncertainty here, very rough guess that we start delivering Optimus robots to companies that are outside of Tesla in maybe the second half of next year, something like that. But like I said, this is such an exponential ramp that it will go from no one's receiving humanoid robots to these things like coming out like crazy.  

是的，有非常多无聊、枯燥、危险或者略带危险的工作，非常适合Optimus来做。所以我们希望先在工厂里使用Optimus完成这些任务，这也能帮助我们在今年完成改善的闭环。实际上那是我所说的生产版本2，我认为会在明年某个时候发布。我希望是明年年初，但也可能是明年年中。然后我们必须——对于月产能1万台而不是1千台的生产线进行设计。因为如果你设计的是一条月产1千台的生产线，那么达到1千台的实际产能也需要一段时间。对于任何给定的产量目标，都需要一段时间才能发挥潜力。目前我们正在设计的产线月产能大约是1千台Optimus机器人。下一条产线将会是月产1万台，再之后就是月产10万台。对于版本2，出于目前仍然存在很多不确定性，大致的猜测是我们会在明年下半年左右开始向特斯拉之外的公司交付Optimus机器人。但正如我所说，这个规模增长会非常迅猛，会从没有人收到人形机器人一下子变得大量涌现。  

Vaibhav Taneja  

瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾  

We can't build enough.  

我们造都造不够。  

Elon Musk  

埃隆·马斯克  

We're always going to be in a we can't build enough situation. Demand will not be a problem even at a high price. And then as I said, like, once we start -- once we're at a steady state of above 1 million units a year, I think the production -- I'm confident at 1 million units a year, that the production cost of Optimus will be less than $20,000. If you compare the complexity of Optimus to the complexity of a car, so just the total mass and complexity of Optimus is much less than a car. So, I would expect that at similar volumes to say the Model Y, which is over 1 million units a year, that you'd see Optimus be, I don't know, half the cost or something like that. What the price of Optimus is a different matter. The price of Optimus will be set by the market demand.  

我们永远都会面临“我们造都造不够”的局面。即使价格很高，需求也不会成为问题。正如我所说，一旦我们开始——一旦我们能维持年产量超过一百万台，我相信在年产一百万台的规模下，Optimus的生产成本将低于两万美元。若把Optimus的复杂度与汽车的复杂度作比较，Optimus的整体质量和复杂度都远低于汽车。所以，我预计，当产量规模与Model Y相仿（即年产超百万台）时，Optimus的成本可能只有汽车的一半左右或者类似的水平。至于Optimus的售价，则是另一个问题，最终将由市场需求决定。  

Travis Axelrod  

特拉维斯·阿克斯尔罗德  

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, what is the status on mass production of the Tesla Semi? And how will it impact revenue and scale?  

太好了，非常感谢。下一个问题是：特斯拉Semi的量产目前进展如何？这将对收入和规模产生怎样的影响？  

Lars Moravy  

拉尔斯·莫拉维  

I can take that one. So, we just closed out the Semi factory roof of walls last week in Reno, a schedule, which is great with the weather. In Reno, you never know what's going to happen. But we're prepping for mechanical installation of all the equipment in the coming months. The first builds of the high volume Semi design come late this year in 2025 and begin ramping early in 2026. But as we've said before, the Semi is a TCO, no-brainer. I think it's really similar to Optimus, set by how much people pay and it has the total cost of ownership, it's much, much cheaper than any other transportation you can have. So at that point, when we're at scale, it will meaningfully contribute to Tesla's revenue. I think it’s difficult to say how much. Anything you want to add Elon?  

我来回答这个问题。上周我们刚刚在里诺完成Semi工厂的屋顶和墙体施工，这个进度能赶上好天气非常不错。在里诺，天气的变化你永远也说不准。接下来几个月，我们会为所有设备的机械安装做好准备。首批高产量Semi车型将在2025年年底左右面世，并于2026年初开始爬坡量产。但正如我们之前所说，Semi在总拥有成本（TCO）方面具有绝对优势。我认为，它和Optimus的情况很相似，最终由人们的支付能力决定，它的总拥有成本要比你能使用的任何其他运输方式低得多。因此，一旦我们实现大规模量产，它会对特斯拉的收入产生实质性的贡献。我认为目前还很难说具体数额是多少。埃隆，你有什么想补充的吗？  

Elon Musk  

埃隆·马斯克  

No. I mean, I do think that Tesla Semi, again with autonomy, is going to be incredibly valuable. That we actually have a shortage of truck drivers in America, that's one of the limiting factors on transport. And people are human so they get tired and sometimes there's -- it's -- I have a lot of respect for truck drivers because it's a tough job. But because it's a tough job, there's not that many people that want to do it. And there's actually fewer -- I believe, if my saying is correct, there are a few people entering truck driving as a profession than are not leaving it.  

没有。我是说，我确实认为搭配自动驾驶的特斯拉Semi将非常有价值。我们在美国实际面临卡车司机短缺，这是运输业的限制因素之一。毕竟人是会疲惫的——我非常尊重卡车司机，因为这是份艰苦的工作。但正因为它很辛苦，愿意做的人并不多。而且据我所知，如果我说得没错的话，进入卡车司机行业的人数还少于离开这个行业的人数。  

Vaibhav Taneja  

瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾  

Yes.  

是的。  

Elon Musk  

So when you think, yeah, exactly. So when you consider, okay, there's more people leaving truck driving as a profession than entering it, well, we're going to have a real logistics problem as time goes by. So autonomy will be very important to meet that need. So like, yeah, it will -- I don't know. It's a several billion a year opportunity, which I don't know in this context. Is that -- these days, does several billion a year matter? I think it does. It's not nothing. It's probably -- it might -- it’s probably like a $10 billion a year thing. That's $1 billion a month at some point probably. But it's -- all this is going to pale in comparison to Optimus. So yeah, $1 billion a month is a lot but it's not -- it's going to be like 1% of Optimus.  

所以，当你考虑到这一点，没错。也就是说，如果退出卡车驾驶行业的人比加入这个行业的人还要多，那么随着时间的推移，我们就会遇到真正的物流问题。因此，实现自动驾驶对于满足这一需求非常重要。所以，是的，我不知道，这一年可能有数十亿美元的机会——具体是多少我也不确定。在当下，这几年收入数十亿美元究竟算不算大？我认为还是算的。并非微不足道。它可能是——可能会达到大约每年100亿美元，那也许就是每月10亿美元的规模。但与Optimus相比，这一切都显得微不足道。所以是的，每月10亿美元确实很多，但也许只相当于Optimus的1%。

Travis Axelrod  

Great. Thank you very much. We already covered the next question in opening remarks, so moving on. Is it expected that Tesla that will need to upgrade Hardware 3 vehicles? And if so, what is the timeline and expected impact to Tesla's CapEx? I think they are referring to cost there.  

好的，非常感谢。我们在开场发言中已经涵盖了下一个问题，所以继续。是否预计特斯拉将需要升级配备Hardware 3的车辆？如果是的话，时间线和对特斯拉资本支出的影响会是什么？我认为他们在这里指的是成本方面。

Elon Musk  

They're really asking the tough questions, aren't they?  

他们问的真是尖锐的问题，不是吗？

Vaibhav Taneja  

I guess we reached -- we haven't started working on Hardware 3 yet. We are still making software releases. We released the 12.6 release recently, which was like a -- is like a baby V13, but it's a significant improvement compared to what they had previously. And people are still finding ways, there are still larger motors in the smaller models. So we don't give up on Hardware 3, we're still working on it. Just the releases will trail the Hardware 4 releases.  

我猜我们才刚触及——我们还没有开始对Hardware 3进行大规模改进。我们依旧在不断进行软件发布。我们最近发布了12.6版本，就像是一个“V13的早期版本”，但相对于之前已经是一个巨大的进步。人们依然在进行各种探索，一些较小款的车型依旧搭载了更大功率的电机。所以我们不会放弃Hardware 3，我们还在继续优化。只不过在发布节奏上会比Hardware 4略微滞后一些。

Travis Axelrod  

Great. Thanks.  

好的，谢谢。

Elon Musk  

Yeah. I mean, I think the honest answer is that we're going to have to upgrade people's Hardware 3 computer for those that have bought Full Self Driving, and that is the honest answer and that's going to be painful and difficult but we'll get it done. Now, I'm kind of glad that not that many people bought the FSD package.  

是的。我的意思是，坦白地说，对于那些已经购买了全自动驾驶（FSD）的用户，我们会需要为他们升级Hardware 3计算机。这是实话，而这肯定会是一个艰难而痛苦的过程，但我们会完成。现在我倒是有点庆幸，因为并没有太多人购买FSD套件。

Travis Axelrod  

Thanks, Elon. The next question. Has Tesla given up on ramping their solar roof product?  

谢谢你，Elon。下一个问题：特斯拉是否已经放弃了扩大太阳能屋顶产品的产能？

Elon Musk  

No, we -- sorry, Mike, go ahead, yeah.  

没有，我们——不好意思，Mike，你先说。

Unidentified Company Representative  

Yes, I can take it. Yeah, solar roof is a core part of the residential product portfolio and it still remains. It draws a lot of customer interest despite it being premium products. We've worked on multiple iterations of engineering to make the product easier to install and distribute by reducing SKU count. And more recently, rather than direct installation, we are focused on growth through our nationwide network of certified installers. And many of those, they've been installing solar roof for many years.  

好的，我来回答。是的，太阳能屋顶依旧是我们住宅产品组合中的核心产品。尽管它是一款高端产品，但仍然能吸引大量的客户兴趣。我们已经对其进行了多次工程迭代，通过减少SKU数量来降低安装和分销的难度。最近，我们不再只专注于直接安装，而是通过在全美范围内的认证安装商网络来实现增长。其中有很多安装商已经有好几年的太阳能屋顶安装经验了。

Elon Musk  

That's actually turned out to be a much better way for the -- like it's just let the roof -- just supply products to the roofing industry. And especially when somebody's is getting a new roof anyway or building a house from scratch, obviously, this is by far the most efficient time to put in a solar roof as opposed to putting a solar roof on a house that -- where the roof still has 20 years of life. That's not economically senseful. But if it's a new house or the roof needs to be replaced anyway, then solar roof can make a lot of sense. And it is a premium product. It's like the Model S, Model X or something, like it's a premium product. I think it looks really cool. And you -- I mean, your house generates electricity. And if you combine it with the Tesla Powerwall battery, then you can be self-sufficient. So, even if the grid turns off, even if the grid turns off for several days, your house still works, and your roof looks awesome. So, it's like, I recommend anyone who had -- who can afford it, get the Tesla solar roof and the Powerwall. Your family’s life might depend on it. And just in terms of convenience, your kids are not going to yell at you because their computers don't work because power went out and you can't charge your phone. Actually happens. Yeah. You literally can't even call anyone because your phones out of juice.  

事实证明，这样对我们来说反而更好——就像让屋顶行业去使用我们的产品，尤其是在有些人本来就要换新屋顶或者从零开始建房子时，显然这是安装太阳能屋顶最有效率的时机，而不是在一个还可以用20年的屋顶上安装太阳能屋顶。这在经济上并不合算。但如果是新房或者屋顶反正也要换，那么太阳能屋顶就非常有意义。这本来就是一款高端产品，就像Model S、Model X一样，是款高端产品。我觉得它看起来非常酷，而且房子还能自己发电。如果再配备一块特斯拉的Powerwall电池，你就可以实现自给自足。即使电网断电了，哪怕断好几天，你的房子依然可以运转，而且屋顶看起来还很棒。所以我会推荐任何能负担得起的人去安装特斯拉太阳能屋顶和Powerwall。你的家人的生命安全可能都仰赖于此。从便利性角度看，你的孩子也不会因为断电、电脑用不了或手机没电而冲你大喊大叫——这确实会发生。对啊，手机没电了，甚至连电话都打不了呢。

Travis Axelrod  

Thank you very much. The next question was covered in opening remarks, so we will skip that. And the last question from say.com. What technical breakthroughs will define V14 of FSD, given that V13 already covered photon to control?  

非常感谢。下一个问题在开场致辞中已经谈到了，所以我们跳过。来自say.com的最后一个问题：在V13已经实现了从光子到控制（photon to control）的情况下，V14的FSD会有哪些技术突破？

Elon Musk  

Well, we're going to help a lot -- help a lot further than [indiscernible] We've been in sort of the nothing but nets situation, nothing but neural nets from photons to controls for a while now for just improving the neural nets. I guess we could get into some of the technical details to some degree. I have to say I continue to be amazed by just how effective order aggressive transformers are at solving a wide range of problems. I mean, Ashok, is there anything you'd like to add there without giving away the sort of family secrets?  

嗯，我们会更加深入地改进，目前我们已经基本做到了“只用神经网络”——从光子到控制都是神经网络，这方面已经有一段时间了，只是在不断改进神经网络。我想我们可以在某种程度上谈一些技术细节。我不得不说，我仍然对自回归Transformer在解决各种问题时所展现的高效性能感到惊叹。Ashok，你有什么想补充的吗？尽量别泄露“家族机密”。

Ashok Elluswamy  

I mean, except for things we put on X already. Yeah, it's continuing to scale the model size a lot. We scale a bunch in V13, but then there's still room to grow. So we're going to continue to scale the model size. We're going to increase the context length even more. The memory is sort of limited right now. We want to increase the amount of memory, also give to even minutes of context for driving. We're going to add audio and emergency vehicles better, add data of the tricky common cases that we get from the entire fleet, any interventions or any kind of user intervention. We just add that to the data, the dataset. So the scaling in basically every axis, training compute, data set size, model size, model context, and also all the reinforcement learning objectives.  

我指的是，除了我们已经在X上公布的一些信息之外。是的，我们会继续大幅扩展模型规模。在V13上我们已经做过一定的扩容，但仍有继续扩展的空间。因此我们将继续扩大模型规模，还会进一步提升上下文长度。目前内存还是有些限制。我们希望增加可用的内存，为驾驶提供几分钟的上下文信息。我们还会更好地整合音频和紧急车辆处理，整合来自整个车队在常见棘手场景下的数据，以及所有人为干预或任何用户干预数据，并将其加入数据集。也就是说，我们会在各个维度上进行扩容，包括训练计算量、数据集规模、模型规模、模型上下文，以及所有强化学习目标等。

Travis Axelrod  

Great. Alrighty. With that, we will move over to analyst questions. So just as a reminder, you will need to unmute yourself to ask your question and the first question will be coming from Daniel Roeska from Bernstein. Daniel, please go ahead and unmute yourself.  

好的。那我们现在进入分析师问答环节。提醒一下大家，需要先取消静音才能提问。第一个问题来自Bernstein的Daniel Roeska。Daniel，请取消静音，然后开始提问。

Daniel Roeska  

Hey, good evening, everybody. It's Daniel from Bernstein. Elon, Tesla's share price clearly already includes quite few of the anticipated benefits you talked about today, yet realizing what you call kind of difficult but achievable will take some time. What are you pushing the Tesla executive team to do differently now to accelerate the innovation in order to realize the value you described for the company.  

大家晚上好，我是Bernstein的Daniel。Elon，特斯拉的股价显然已经反映了不少你今天提到的预期收益，但要实现你所说的那些“困难但可行”的目标还需要一些时间。你现在是如何推动特斯拉高管团队加速创新，从而达成你所说的这些公司价值的？

Elon Musk  

Well, I mean, we're, I think, working on perfecting real-world AI and making rapid progress week over week, if not month, certainly month over month, but often week over week. I spent a lot of time with the Tesla AI team and the Tesla Optimus team. I mean, I go where the problem is essentially. Like, not -- if something's, this is, unfortunately sometimes, like, don't talk to Tesla executives, and like, hey, we don't see you very often. I'm like, that's because your stuff is working awesome. If you start working really great, unfortunately, I didn't see them very often because I go where the problem is. So, [indiscernible] what's the greatest challenge that lies ahead? So obviously there are many challenges with Optimus. It's a hard problem to solve. Many challenges with vehicle autonomy. But we're making rapid progress in both. Yeah.  

嗯，我的意思是，我们正在完善真实世界的人工智能，每周都能看到显著进展，如果不是每周，也肯定是每月，而且往往每周都有新进步。我花了大量时间与特斯拉的AI团队以及Optimus团队一起工作。基本上，我都会到问题最突出、最需要我的地方去。不幸的是，有时候就会出现这种情况：特斯拉的一些高管说，哎，你怎么很少来找我们？我就会说，因为你们的工作没什么问题呀。如果你们的工作一切都很棒，那我就不用经常出现了，因为我一般只会跑去有问题的地方。所以，目前摆在我们面前的最大挑战是什么呢？显然，Optimus有许多需要攻克的问题，这是一个非常困难的任务；在车辆自动驾驶方面我们也面临很多挑战。不过我们在这两个领域都取得了快速的进展。是的。

Daniel Roeska  

Okay. I mean, it sounds like you've got a conviction that the pieces you need, right, are in place. If we kind of go 12 months down the line and we look back, and you had some of those, but maybe what are the kind of two or three KPIs that would tell you that you're on track and it's going the right way and the pieces you've put in place are the right pieces, right? That's kind of what I'm looking for or other way around, where would it be off most likely in your mind that you say, hey, I need to go back there and I need to change something to enable the team better?  

好的。听起来你对自己需要的各个部分都已经就位颇有信心。如果我们再往后推12个月回过头来看，你已经拥有了一些相应的要素，但是也许会出现哪些两三个关键指标，让你确认自己正在沿着正确的方向前进，并且所做的一切都是正确的？这就是我想要了解的内容。或者说，在哪些地方最有可能出现偏差，让你觉得必须回头重新调整某些东西，以便更好地支持团队？

Elon Musk  

Well, I mean, I think my predictions that I'm making here are going to be pretty accurate. And it's worth the next -- sometimes people say, Elon's always late. Well, actually, no, the problem is that the media reports on when I'm late, but never reports when I'm early. So sure, I'm optimistic, but I'm not that optimistic. There are many cases in the past where I actually, we've been early, such as completion of the Shanghai factory or factory completion has generally have been ahead of schedule, not behind. So, yeah, so the -- but I like to say I'm very confident we'll have released unsupervised Full Self Driving fully autonomous Teslas in Austin and several other cities in America by the end of this year. That's probably everywhere in America next year, and everywhere in North America at least. I think in terms of next year our constraints, I think it's likely to be just regulatory. Like Europe really has, for example, Europe is a layer cake of regulations and bureaucracy, which really needs to be addressed. There's this joke like America innovates, Europe regulates. It's like, guys, there's too many refs on the field. I mean, for example, for us to just to release supervised Full Self Driving in Europe, even though it works really well, we have to go through a mountain of paperwork with the Netherlands, which is our primary regulatory authority. Then the Netherlands presents this to the EU and I think May. And there's like this big EU country committee. We expect it to be approved at that time, but there's nothing we can do to make that may happen sooner. In fact, nobody seems to do it. But I guess all the countries would have to somehow vote in some way to have it happen sooner than May. Otherwise, it won't happen sooner than May. So then when is unsupervised FSD allowed in Europe? I’m like, May next year maybe? I don't know. I have to find out when the EU is meeting again. Sometimes it's a 12-month cadence, sometimes a six-month cadence. Then in China, which is a gigantic market, we do have some challenges because they weren't, currently allow us to transfer training video outside of China. And then the US government wouldn't let us do training in China. So we're in a bit of a bind there. So like, bit of a quandary. So we are already solving then is by literally looking at videos of streets in China that are available on the Internet to understand and then feeding that into our video training so that publicly available video of street signs and traffic rules in China can be used for training and then also putting it in a very accurate simulator. And so it will train using SIM for bus lanes in China. Like bus lanes in China, by the way, were about the biggest challenges in making FSD work in China is the bus lanes are very complicated. And there's like literally like hours of the day that you're allowed to be there and not be there. And then if you accidentally go in that bus lane at the wrong time, you get an automatic ticket instantly. So, it's kind of a big deal, bus lanes in China. So we're going to put that into our simulator, train on that. The car has to know what time of day it is, read the sign. Anyway, we'll get this solved. But I think we'll have unsupervised FSD in almost every market this year limited simply by regulatory issues, not technical capability. And then unsupervised FSD in the US this year, in many cities, but nationwide next year. And hopefully we have unsupervised FSD in most countries by the end of next year. That's my prediction with the best data that I have right now.  

嗯，我觉得我在这里做出的预测会相当准确。有人说，Elon总是迟到。其实并不是，问题在于媒体只报道我迟到的时候，却从来不报道我提早完成的时候。当然，我是乐观，但并没有那么乐观。过去有很多例子表明，我们实际上提早完成了任务，比如上海工厂的建造，或者工厂的建设进度通常都比计划更早完成，而不是更晚。  

所以，我非常有信心会在今年年底前于奥斯汀以及美国的其他几个城市推出无监督的完全自动驾驶特斯拉汽车。到明年这很可能会遍及美国各地，至少会覆盖整个北美地区。对于明年来说，我认为真正的限制因素可能只是法规方面。比如欧洲那边的监管就非常复杂，好比分层蛋糕一样，需要面对大量的官僚程序。关于美国创新，欧洲监管的那个笑话就说明了问题：就像是场上裁判太多了。  

举个例子，仅仅是为了在欧洲推出有监督的FSD功能（即便它效果很好），我们也需要与主要的监管机构——荷兰方面做一大堆文件工作，然后荷兰再把这些材料提交到欧盟，时间点好像是明年5月。那里还有一个庞大的欧盟国家委员会。我们预计到那时会通过，但我们无法让它更早到来。事实上，似乎没人能让它更早到来。除非所有国家都能想办法提前投票，否则事情就不会提前到来。所以无监督FSD在欧洲什么时候会被允许？或许要到明年5月吧？这我也不太确定。我需要看看欧盟什么时候再开会。有时是12个月一次，有时是6个月一次。  

然后在中国这个巨大市场，我们也遇到了一些挑战，因为目前还不允许我们将训练用的视频传到中国境外，而美国政府也不允许我们在中国进行训练。在这方面，我们有点左右为难。我们正在做的一个应对办法是，去网上收集中国街道的视频素材，通过这些公开视频了解中国的路况、交通标识和规则，然后将其纳入训练数据，并在一个非常精准的模拟器里进行模拟训练。所以我们会在模拟环境下针对中国的公交车道进行训练。顺便说一下，在中国要让FSD运行良好，公交车道是最大的挑战之一，因为公交车道的规定很复杂，每天有特定的时间段才能或者不能驶入。如果不小心在错误的时间段进入公交车道，会立即收到自动开具的罚单。所以在中国公交车道是个大问题。我们会把这些情况输入模拟器，通过模拟来训练。车必须知道此刻是几点，能看清标志牌上的信息等等。不管怎样，我们会解决这些问题。  

我认为，今年我们就能在几乎所有市场实现无监督FSD，只会受限于监管因素，而不是技术能力。接着在美国，我们今年会在许多城市实现无监督FSD，明年将会覆盖全国。希望到明年底，我们能在大部分国家实现无监督FSD。这是我基于目前掌握的信息做出的预测。

Travis Axelrod  

Great. Thank you very much. The next question will come from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley. Adam, please feel free to unmute yourself.  

好的，非常感谢。下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的Adam Jonas。Adam，你可以解除静音后开始发问。

Adam Jonas  

Thanks everybody. So, Elon, you've said in the past about LiDAR, for AVs at least, that LiDAR is a crutch, a fool's errand. I think you even told me once, even if it was free, you'd say you wouldn't use it. Do you still feel that way?  

谢谢大家。Elon，你过去谈到自动驾驶时曾说过LiDAR是一根拐杖，是徒劳无益的。我记得你还告诉过我，就算LiDAR免费，你也不会使用它。你现在依然是这么认为吗？

Elon Musk  

Yes.  

是的。

Adam Jonas  

Care to elaborate or just, I have another question.  

可以详细谈谈吗？或者我也可以问另一个问题。

Elon Musk  

Look, we even have a radar in the car and we turned it off.  

你看，我们的车里甚至配备了雷达，但最终还是把它关闭了。

Adam Jonas  

I got it. All right. So you're still -- people think you're crazy for not looking to LiDAR.  

明白了。好吧，所以你依然……有些人觉得你不考虑LiDAR是很疯狂的事。

Elon Musk  

Obviously humans drive without shooting lasers out of their eyes. Unless you're Superman. But like humans drive just with passive visual, humans drive with eyes and a neural net and a brain neural net. So the digital equivalent of eyes and a brain are cameras and digital neural nets or AI. So that's the entire road system was designed for passive optical neural nets. That's how the whole road system was not designed and what everyone's expecting, that's how we expect other cars to behave. So therefore that is very obviously the solution for Full Self Driving in it as a generalized, but the generalized solution for Full Self Driving as opposed to the very specific, neighborhood by neighborhood solution, which is very difficult to maintain, which is what our competitors are doing.  

很显然，人类驾车时并不会从眼睛里发射激光，除非你是超人。人类依靠被动的视觉——眼睛和大脑神经网络——来开车。因此在数字世界里，对应眼睛和大脑神经网络的就是摄像头和数字神经网络或AI。整个道路系统本身就是为被动式光学神经网络设计的。这也是所有人对其他车辆行为方式的默认预期。因此，从全局的角度来看，使用摄像头和神经网络显然就是让车辆实现完全自动驾驶的解决方案，而不是局限在某几个街区、某几个区域的特定方案，那种模式非常难以维持，而我们的竞争对手们就是在做这种事。

Adam Jonas  

I got it.  

我明白了。

Elon Musk  

Yeah. I mean, LiDAR doesn't work in the fall, guys. LiDAR has a lot of issues. I don't have to like, the SpaceX Dragon docks with the space station using LiDAR that a program that I've personally spearheaded. I don't have some fundamental bizarre dislike of LiDAR. It's simply the wrong solution for driving cars on roads.  

是的。LiDAR在一些环境里不好用，比如下落叶的季节，问题很多。我也不必说什么，SpaceX的Dragon飞船对接空间站就用到了LiDAR，我是那个项目的主要负责人之一。我并不是天生就厌恶LiDAR。只是在道路驾驶这种场景中，LiDAR并不是正确的解决方案。

Adam Jonas  

Right. You understand how LiDAR works. I get it.  

明白。你当然知道LiDAR的工作原理，我懂了。

Elon Musk  

Literally designed and built our own red LiDAR. I oversaw the project, the engineering thing. It was my decision to use LiDAR on Dragon and I oversaw the engineering project directly. So I'm like we literally designed and made a radar, a LiDAR to dock with the space station. But if I thought it was the right solution for cars, I would do that, but it isn't.  

我们真的是自己设计并制造了红光LiDAR。我亲自负责这个项目及其工程工作。在龙飞船（Dragon）上使用LiDAR是我的决定，我也直接监督了这个工程项目。所以说，我们真的为对接空间站而设计并制造过雷达和LiDAR。但如果我觉得它是汽车的正确解决方案，我就会这么做，但它并不是。

Adam Jonas  

Yeah. All right. Just as a follow up. At CES, you said, I'm paraphrasing, that any AI will be able to do any cognitive task not involving atoms within the next three or four years. And that would imply, Elon, that before the end of President Trump's term in office, that AI would be moving pretty damn quickly into the physical world, into the world of photons and atoms. And I'm thinking, given your work with the administration, how confident are you that the US will have the manufacturing and the supply base to make good on your excitement about physical AI by the end of -- by latter this decade. We seem pretty vulnerable right now. I've seen you tweeting about, or sorry, X-ing, excuse me, Elon, about China, Freudian slip, about China having like making more drones in a day than the US makes in a year and all the entanglement of the supply. So, what has to happen in the US to make that possible? What's your message and what can you do about it and what's relevant for Tesla shareholders? Thanks, Elon.  

好的。那我继续追问一下。在CES上，你曾说过——我稍微概括一下——在未来三四年内，任何AI都可以完成不涉及原子层面的所有认知任务。那这就意味着，在特朗普总统任期结束之前，AI会非常迅速地渗透进物理世界，也就是光子和原子的世界。我在想，考虑到你与政府方面的合作，你对美国是否能在这十年后期具备所需的制造能力和供应链基础，来实现你对“物理AI”的期待有多大信心？目前看起来我们还相当脆弱。我看到你发推文（哦，抱歉，是在X上发消息了，口误），你提到中国可能一天制造的无人机比美国一年制造的都多，以及双方供应链纠缠不清。那么，要让这件事在美国成为可能，需要做什么？你有什么想对外界传达的信息，你能做什么？对特斯拉股东来说又有什么意义？谢谢你，Elon。

Elon Musk  

Well, at Tesla, obviously, we think manufacturing is cool. SpaceX, we think manufacturing is cool. But in general, for talented Americans, they need to be beyond, beyond my companies, beyond me and my teams here, in general, we need to make manufacturing cool again in America. And, like, I honestly think people should move from like law and finance into manufacturing. That's my honest opinion. We have too much, this is both a compliment and a criticism. We have too much talent in law and finance in America. And there should be more of that talent in manufacturing. So, yeah. The potential for the future. I mean, it tells that we're making sure that we can continue to manufacture our stuff. Even in the event of geopolitical tensions rising to very high levels.  

在特斯拉，我们显然觉得制造业很酷。SpaceX也是如此。但总的来说，我们需要让美国那些有才华的人才——不仅仅是我的公司或我的团队——普遍地回到制造业，让制造业在美国再次“酷”起来。说实话，我觉得人们应该从法律和金融转向制造业。这是我的真心话。我们美国在法律和金融领域拥有过多的人才，这既是个优点也是个缺点。我认为应该有更多人才投身制造业。关于未来的潜力，我的意思是，我们会确保自己能继续生产自己的产品，即使在地缘政治紧张程度极高的情况下也能做到。

Adam Jonas  

Great. Thank you very much. The next question will come from Pierre Ferragu at New Street. Pierre, please feel free to unmute yourself.  

好的，非常感谢。下一个问题来自New Street的Pierre Ferragu。Pierre，请解除静音后开始提问。

Pierre Ferragu  

Hey, thanks guys for taking the question. So, I have a question on deploying like robotaxis in June in Austin. So that's great news. And I was wondering if it means I can drive down to Austin in June and try unsupervised by myself with my car, or it's going to be more like your fleet testing it?  

嗨，谢谢你们给我这个提问的机会。关于你们在6月份在奥斯汀部署robotaxi的计划，这真是个好消息。我想知道这是否意味着我可以在6月开车去奥斯汀，然后用自己的车尝试无监督模式，还是说会更像是由你们的车队来测试？

Elon Musk  

It'll be our fleet testing it. That's our sort of toe in the water. We'll be scrutinizing it very carefully, make sure it's not something we missed. But it will be, autonomous ride-hailing for money in Austin in June. And then as shortly as possible other cities in America. And I expect us to be operating, doing unsupervised activity with our internal fleet in several cities by the end of the year. Then it's probably next year when people are able to add or subtract their car from the fleet. So, kind of like Airbnb where you can sort of add or subtract your house or your guest room, you can say like add it to the Airbnb inventory or don't add it to the Airbnb inventory. If you're traveling for a month, or whatever, in case maybe you can, that other people use your house. Anyway, that's probably next year because we want to just make sure we've ironed out any kinks. And a lot of it is, it's not like we're not splitting the atom here. It's just a bunch of work that needs to be done to make sure the whole thing works efficiently, that people can order the car. It comes, it's the right spot, does exactly the right thing. All the payment systems work. The billing works.  

将会是我们自己的车队进行测试。这相当于是试水阶段。我们会非常仔细地审查，以确保不会有遗漏。但在今年6月份，奥斯汀就会有自动驾驶叫车服务进行收费运营了。然后我们会尽快在美国其他城市推出。我预计，到今年年底，我们会在内部车队里于多个城市实现无监督的运营。等到明年，人们也许就能将自己的车辆加入或移出车队。这跟Airbnb有点类似，你可以把房子或客房加入或移出Airbnb的清单。如果你要出门一个月什么的，或在其他情况下也许可行，你可以让别人来用你的房子。总之，那大概会在明年，因为我们想先确保把所有问题都解决。说到底，我们也不是在做什么分子裂变，只是有一堆工作要做，确保整个流程都能高效运转，让人们可以正常召车，车辆能到正确的地方，执行正确的动作，支付系统能正常工作，账务能够顺利进行。

Pierre Ferragu  

Yeah. Okay. But then, like, so my follow-up question would be, I have a Tesla, I have a FSD, and I have to keep my eyes on the road all the time. It's super boring because I don't really need to intervene anymore. And the really annoying thing is that I can't just check my emails. And so are you working also on introducing, like a kind of like free and supervised where I could be eyes off and I would be able to check my email and we just need to, with a five second notice, have to go back and keep an eye on what's happening or is that something you're working on as well? Because it feels so close with this certain that I wonder if it's something you'd expect for this year. It's a very sensitive question. I asked for myself to be honest.  

明白了。那么，我接着问：我现在拥有一台特斯拉，也付费了FSD，现在得一直盯着路面开车。虽然基本不需要干预，但依旧很乏味。而最烦人的是，我不能随便看邮件。所以，你们是否也在研究那种“自由无监督模式”，就是在我无需集中注意力时能不用看路，可能只在5秒钟前得到提示，告诉我需要重新投入注意力？你们在这方面也有努力吗？因为现在似乎已经很接近实现了，我好奇是不是你们打算在今年实现？我问这个问题说实话也是为了我自己。

Elon Musk  

Yes, we just need -- we need to be very confident that the probability of injury is low before we allow people to check with their email and text messages. In fact, right now we're in this perverse situation, which you may have encountered yourself where people will actually go to manual driving to check their text messages so the computer doesn't yell at them and then go then put it back on autonomous mode once they have checked the text messages, which is obviously less safe, significantly less safe, significantly less safe than just letting people check their text once in a while without the computer yelling at them. But we just want to be cautious about the advent that we're in this sort of, neither here nor there, but just for, I mean, I think it's not for many months longer. But yeah, we're in this perverse situation where people will turn the car off autopilot so the computer doesn't yell at them, check the text messages while steering the car with their knee and not looking out the window.  

是的，不过在允许人们查看电子邮件和短信之前，我们必须非常确定这样的操作不会显著增加安全风险。事实上，目前的情况有点怪异，想必你也体会到：有些人会切换回手动驾驶去看短信，好让系统别吵他们，然后看完短信后再切回自动驾驶。显然，这比偶尔让人们看短信而不被电脑提醒要更不安全，而且是不安全很多很多倍。但我们现在只能谨慎处理，毕竟现在属于一个不上不下的过渡期。我认为这个过渡期不会再持续很多个月。但目前确实存在这种不正常状况：有人会先关闭自动驾驶来查看短信，一边用膝盖控制方向盘，一边不看前方。  

Ashok Elluswamy  

And like Elon said, if you have any problems with the system and when people are not looking, that is a dangerous thing. And that's what we're trying to avoid. The capability is getting there, but it's not fully there. That's why he was using the term of tipping a toe in the water, then getting comfortable, then keeping going.  

正如Elon所说，如果系统出现问题而人们又没在看，那就会非常危险。我们正努力避免这种情况。功能已经非常接近，但还没完全成熟。这就是他所说的先试探性地把脚趾放进水里，然后适应后再继续向前的意思。

Elon Musk  

Yeah. Anyway, it's not far off. But we would not want to prove to ourselves and also prove to regulators that the car is unequivocally safer in autonomous mode than not. And that's, we're not far off. So, this is like low single-digit months.  

是的。不管怎样，已经非常接近了。但我们不仅要向自己，而且还要向监管部门证明，这款车在自动驾驶模式下比人工驾驶毫无疑问更安全。我们离这一目标并不遥远，也就是几个月的时间。

Ashok Elluswamy  

To the safety aspect, we did publish our Vehicle Safety Report today. And then Q4 is one crash for every 5.9 million miles driven compared to a crash every 700,000 miles without…  

关于安全方面，我们今天发布了车辆安全报告。去年第四季度，我们每590万英里发生一起事故，而没有使用该系统则是每70万英里发生一起事故……

Elon Musk  

We're getting to the point where it's an order of magnitude.  

我们已经快到达一个数量级上的差异了。

Ashok Elluswamy  

Yeah, it's like 8.5 times safer. So it's just about there. It's amazing.  

是的，大约是安全了8.5倍。已经非常接近了。这太令人惊叹了。

Travis Axelrod  

Great. Alrighty. And our last question will be coming from Dan Levy at Barclays. Dan, feel free to unmute yourself.  

好的。好的。接下来我们最后一个问题来自巴克莱银行的Dan Levy。Dan，请解除静音后开始提问。

Dan Levy  

Great. Good evening. Thank you for taking other questions. Elon, you've talked about the need for proliferation of sustainable transport in the past as part of sort of broader push to sustainable energy. Look, I know we've heard a lot about President Trump's plans to reverse the EV Mandate and I think there's a view that given regulation is a driver of EV uptake, this could slow EV uptake in the US. So, what would be your view on the right policy in the US, given your comments in the past of the need to push for sustainable transport?  

好的，晚上好。谢谢你们继续回答问题。Elon，你过去谈到过要大力发展可持续交通，这是推进可持续能源的大方向之一。我们知道外界有很多关于特朗普总统计划逆转电动汽车规定的消息，有人认为监管是推动电动汽车普及的因素，这可能会放慢美国的电动汽车普及速度。基于你过去对可持续交通的呼吁，你认为美国应该采取什么样的政策？

Elon Musk  

At this point, I think that sustainable transport is inevitable. I'm highly confident that all transport will be autonomous electric, including aircraft, and that it simply, it can't be stopped any more than one could have stopped the advent of the external combustion engine, steam engine, or one could have stopped the advent of the internal combustion engine. Like, even if you've been the biggest [indiscerinble] advocate on earth, like courses of the way, not these newfangled car automobiles, you can't stop the advent of automobile. It's going to happen. And you can't stop the advent of electric cars. It's going to happen. The only thing holding back electric cars was range, and that is the sole problem.  

在我看来，可持续交通已经是不可避免。我非常肯定，所有交通方式都会转向自动化、电动化，包括飞机。这股趋势根本无法阻挡，就像没人能阻挡外燃机或蒸汽机的出现，也没人能阻挡内燃机的到来一样。即使你是这个世界上最顽固的传统支持者，认为只该用马车，不要这种新奇的汽车，你也没法阻止汽车的普及。它一定会发生。你也没法阻止电动汽车的兴起。它也一定会发生。唯一限制电动汽车的过去是续航问题，而那正是唯一的问题。

Dan Levy  

Great. And then as a follow up, in the past, Elon, you had made a comment that, you'd be willing to sell cars at effectively no margin to get the cars out there. And there's a comment in the release today of the rate of acceleration of autonomy efforts does impact volume growth. So perhaps you could just talk about, with your efforts on FSD, how we should think about your desire to put more vehicles out in the market to take advantage of your tech advances.  

好的。再跟进问一个问题。Elon，你过去曾说过，你愿意以几乎零利润来售车，只为把更多车辆推向市场。今天的发布中也提到，自动驾驶进展的加速节奏会影响产量增长。那么，你能否谈谈，随着你们在FSD方面的努力，我们应该如何理解你想让更多车进入市场、利用你们技术优势的这一意愿？

Elon Musk  

So, I'm not sure I understand the question. We have a lot of cars. I mean, we've got millions of cars out there.  

我不确定我是否理解了你的问题。我们已经有非常多的车辆在路上了。说真的，我们已经有数百万辆车在外面行驶了。

Vaibhav Taneja  

So, is your question, Dan, that how do we marry our future growth aspects with FSD?  

Dan，你的问题是，我们如何将未来的增长与FSD结合起来吗？

Travis Axelrod  

Go ahead and unmute yourself, Dan.  

Dan，请先解除静音。

Dan Levy  

Yeah. More so just how much more aggressively you would be willing to sell your cars versus in light of your improvements on FSD.  

是的。我的意思是，随着FSD的改进，你们会不会更加积极地销售车辆？

Elon Musk  

Well, right now, the constraint we're trying to solve is battery production as opposed to demand. So, there are -- now Q1, we've got this massive factory retooling for the new Model Y, for example. That obviously has a short-term impact on output. But the problem we are seeing with, in fact, we're talking that the executive team and I were talking about just before this call was we've got to figure out how to increase total gigawatt hours of battery production this year one way or another. That's the constraint on our output.  

目前我们需要解决的限制在于电池产能，而不是需求。比如，第一季度我们要对工厂进行大规模改造，为了生产新款Model Y。这显然会对短期产量产生影响。但我们面临的真正问题——事实上我和公司高管团队在这通电话前也讨论了——就是必须想办法在今年将电池的千兆瓦时总产量提升上去。那才是我们产量受限的关键。

Travis Axelrod  

Great. Alrighty. And with that, I think we are all done for today. So, thanks, everyone, so much for all your questions. We look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much, and goodbye.  

好的。好的。我认为今天的会议就到这里。感谢各位提出这么多问题。期待与大家下个季度继续交流。非常感谢，再见。