Ilya Sutskever:
Okay. Hi, everyone. It's really nice to be here. I want to thank everyone for setting this up, for organizing this, for giving me this honorary degree. It's actually extremely meaningful to receive this honorary degree.
好的。大家好。很高兴来到这里。我想感谢所有人安排、组织这次活动,并授予我这份荣誉学位。能够获得这份荣誉学位,对我来说意义非凡。
Almost to this day, 20 years ago, I received my bachelor's degree from the University of Toronto in this exact hall. And actually at this point now I have, this would be my fourth degree from the University of Toronto.
就在今天这个时候的前后,大约二十年前,我正是在这座大厅里,从多伦多大学获得了我的学士学位。而如今,这将是我在多伦多大学获得的第四个学位。
And I had a really extremely wonderful time here. I spent a total of 10 years. I did my undergrad degree and I learned a lot. And I'm also a graduate student here. And it was really wonderful.
我在这里度过了非常美好的时光,总共待了十年。我在这里完成了本科并学到了很多东西,我也在这里攻读研究生,一切都十分精彩。
I was able to go deep in my whatever I was interested in and to really become a researcher. It was really wonderful to study with Geoff Hinton.
我能够深入研究自己感兴趣的任何领域,并真正成为一名研究人员。能与 Geoff Hinton 一起学习,真是太棒了。
Actually, the fact that Geoff Hinton was in this university was one of my life's great strokes of luck. And and I feel a lot of gratitude to the university. I feel like I feel like I couldn't have asked for a better way to,
事实上,Geoff Hinton 在这所大学任教,是我人生中的巨大幸运之一。我对这所大学心怀感激。我觉得自己再也找不到比这更好的途径来——
you know, become educated, mature, become a scientist. And also the University of Toronto, when I was a student here, we were doing the best AI research out of anywhere. It was the most revolutionary ideas, the most exciting work.
你懂的,接受教育、成长、成为一名科学家。而且在我求学期间,多伦多大学正在进行全球最好的人工智能研究,涌现出最具革命性的思想和最令人兴奋的工作。
And I feel very lucky that I was able to contribute to it already in grad school as a student. But that was a long time ago. And the way I understand it, in a convocation speech, one is supposed to provide sagacious advice.
我很幸运能够在研究生阶段就为这些研究做出贡献。但那已经是很久以前的事了。依我所知,毕业典礼的演讲通常需要提供睿智的建议。
And I'll do a little bit of that, but only a bit, because this speech will be a little bit different. I will offer one bit of a useful state of mind which, if one adopts it, makes everything much easier,
我会稍微做一点,但只是一点点,因为这次演讲会有些不同。我想分享一种有用的心态,如果能采纳,它会让一切变得容易得多,
which is to accept reality as it is and to try not to regret the past and try to improve the situation. And the reason I say it is because it's so hard to adopt it.
那就是接受现实的本来面貌,尽量不要为过去后悔,而是努力改善现状。我之所以这样说,是因为要做到这一点实在太难了。
It's so easy to think, oh, like some bad past decision or bad stroke of luck. Something happened. Something's unfair. And you can just spend, it's so easy to spend so much time thinking like this.
我们很容易想到,哦,过去做错了决定,或者运气不好,发生了某些事,事情不公平。你可能会花大量时间陷入这种思维模式。
While it's just so much better and more productive to say, okay, things are the way they are. What's the next best step? And I find that whenever I do this myself, everything works out so much better. But it's hard. It's hard.
然而,如果我们能说:好吧,事情就是如此,下一步最佳行动是什么?这样会更好、更有效。我发现每当我自己这样做时,一切都会顺利得多。但确实很难,非常难。
It's a constant struggle with one's emotion. And that's why I mentioned it to you. Perhaps some of you will adopt it yourself. This is a reminder to adopt this mindset as best as one can. And also a reminder for myself. Constant struggle.
这是一场与情绪的持续斗争。这就是我向诸位提起它的原因。也许你们中的一些人会采纳这种心态。这既是提醒大家尽力保持这种心态,也是提醒我自己——持续的斗争。
But This aside, the reason it's not going to be the most conventional convocation speech is because there is something a little different going on. Right now, you all leave, we all leave in the most unusual time ever.
不过除此之外,这次演讲之所以不会是最传统的毕业演讲,是因为我们正处在一些不同寻常的境况之中。现在你们将离开校园,我们都生活在一个前所未有的非常时期。
And this is something that people might say often, but I think it's actually true this time. And the reason it's true this time is because of AI. Right, obviously.
这句话人们常常挂在嘴边,但我认为这一次它是真的,而这次之所以真的,是因为人工智能——显而易见的原因。
I mean, from what I hear, The AI of today has already changed what it means to be a student by a pretty considerable degree. That's what I sense and I think it's true. But of course, the impact of AI goes beyond that.
据我所闻,如今的人工智能已经在相当大程度上改变了“学生”这一角色的意义。我感觉确实如此。但当然,人工智能的影响远不止于此。
What happens to the kind of work we do? Well, it's starting to change a little bit in some unknown and unpredictable ways. Some work may feel it sooner, some work might feel it later.
我们从事的工作将会怎样?它已经开始以一些未知且不可预测的方式发生变化。有些行业可能更早感受到这种变化,有些则更晚。
With today's AI, you can go on Twitter and you can look at what AI can do and what people say. And you might feel a little bit of that. You wonder, hey, which skills are useful, which ones will be less useful.
使用当今的人工智能,你可以上 Twitter,看看 AI 的表现以及人们的讨论,从中感受这种变化。你会开始思考:嘿,哪些技能还会有用,哪些技能会变得不那么重要?
So you got these questions going on. And so you can say that the current level of challenge is How will it affect work and our careers? But the thing, the real challenge with AI is that it's really unprecedented and really extreme.
于是,这些问题层出不穷。当下的挑战在于:它将如何影响工作和职业?然而,人工智能真正的挑战在于它前所未有且极端。
And it's going to be very different in the future compared to the way it is today. Like, you know, we've all seen AI, we've all spoken to a computer and a computer has spoken back to us, which is a new thing.
未来的 AI 将与今天截然不同。我们都见识过 AI,都与计算机对话,计算机也回应我们——这在过去是全新的体验。
Computers would not do this in the past, but now they do. So you speak to a computer and it understands you and it speaks back to you. And it also does it in voice and it writes some code. It's it's pretty crazy.
过去计算机做不到这些,但现在可以了。你与计算机对话,它理解你的话并作出回应,还能用语音,也能编写代码,这真是太疯狂了。
But there are so many things it cannot do as well. And it's so deficient. So you can say it still needs to catch up on a lot of things. But It's evocative. It's good enough that you can ask yourself, you could imagine, OK, fine.
但与此同时,它还有很多做不到的事情,仍然欠缺许多功能。也就是说,它还有很大的追赶空间。但它已足够令人遐想,让你不禁设想:好吧,
In some number of years, some people say it's in three, some people say it's in five, ten. Numbers are being thrown around. It's a bit hard to predict the future. But slowly, but surely, or maybe not so slowly, AI will keep getting better.
再过几年——有人说三年,有人说五年或十年,各种数字满天飞——未来难以预测。但无论快慢,人工智能会不断进步,这是可以确定的。
And the day will come when AI will do all of our, all the things that we can do. Not just some of them, but all of them. Anything which I can learn, anything which any one of you can learn, the AI could do as well.
终有一天,人工智能将能够完成我们能做的一切,不仅是部分,而是全部。任何我能学会的事情,任何你们能学会的事情,人工智能也都能做到。
How do we know this, by the way? How can I be so sure? How can I be so sure of that? The reason is that all of us have a brain and the brain is a biological computer. That's why. We have a brain. The brain is a biological computer.
顺便说一句,我们怎么知道这一点?我怎么敢如此确定?原因在于我们每个人都有大脑,而大脑就是一台生物计算机。正因如此——我们拥有大脑,大脑是一台生物计算机。
So why can't a digital computer, a digital brain do the same things? This is the one sentence summary for why AI will be able to do all those things. Because we have a brain and the brain is a biological computer.
那为什么数字计算机、数字大脑就不能做同样的事情呢?这句话便概括了人工智能终将胜任一切的理由:因为我们有大脑,而大脑是一台生物计算机。
And so you can start asking yourselves, what's going to happen? What's going to happen when computers can do all of our jobs, right? Those are really big questions. Those are dramatic questions.
因此,你们可以开始问自己:当计算机能完成我们所有工作时,会发生什么?这些都是非常重大的、戏剧性的问题。
And right now, like, you start thinking about it a little bit. You go, gosh, that's a little intense. But it's actually only part of the intensity. Because what's going to happen? What will we, the collective we, want to use these AIs for?
现在,当你稍微思考这些问题时,你会觉得,天哪,这有点过于激烈。但这还只是激烈的一部分。因为还有另一个问题:我们,人类整体,将想要用这些 AI 来做什么?
Do more work? Grow the economy? Do R\&D? Do AI research? So then the rate of progress will become really extremely fast, for some time at least? These are such extreme things. These are such unimaginable things.
是做更多工作?推动经济增长?开展研发?进行 AI 研究?如果是这样,那么至少在一段时间内,进步的速度将变得极其迅猛。这些事情都极端得难以想象。
So right now I'm trying to pull you into that a little bit, into this headspace of this really extreme and radical future that AI creates. It's also very difficult to imagine. It's very, very difficult to imagine.
因此,现在我试图引导大家稍微进入这样一个思维空间——AI 所创造的极端而激进的未来。要想象这一点非常困难,极其困难。
It's very difficult to internalize and to really believe on an emotional level. Even I struggle with it. And yet the logic seems to dictate that this very likely should happen. What does one do in such a world?
要在情感层面真正内化并相信这种未来,非常艰难,连我自己也在挣扎。然而逻辑似乎预示着这一切极有可能发生。那么,在这样的世界里,我们该做什么?
You know, there is a quote which is like this, which goes like this. It says, you may not take interest in politics, but politics will take interest in you. So the same applies to AI many times over.
有一句话是这样说的:你可能对政治不感兴趣,但政治会对你感兴趣。对于人工智能,这句话同样且更为适用。
And in particular, I think that by simply using AI and looking at what the best AI of today can do, you get an intuition. You get an intuition.
尤其是,我认为只要实际使用 AI 并观察当今最先进的 AI 能做到什么,你就会获得一种直觉。你会有这种直觉。
And as AI continues to improve in one year, in two years, in three years, the intuition will become stronger. And a lot of the things that you're talking about now They will become much more real. They'll become less imaginary.
随着 AI 在一两三年内的继续提升,这种直觉会愈发强烈。许多你们现在讨论的事情将变得更加现实,而不再只是想象。
In the end of the day, no amount of essays and explanations can compete with what we see with our own senses, with our own two eyes. And especially with AI, the very smart, super intelligent AI of the future,
归根结底,再多的论文和解释也无法与我们亲眼所见相提并论。尤其是在面对未来那些异常聪明的、超级智能的 AI 时,
there will be very profound issues about Making sure that they say what they say and not pretend to be something else. And I'm really condensing a lot into a small amount of information here, in time here.
我们将面临极其深刻的问题:必须确保它们说的就是它们的本意,而不是伪装成其他东西。我在这里将大量信息压缩在有限的时间里。
But overall, by simply looking at what AI can do, not ignoring it, when the time comes, that will generate the energy that's required to overcome the huge challenge that AI will pose.
但总的来说,只要我们关注并观察 AI 的能力,而不是忽视它,届时便能产生克服 AI 所带来的巨大挑战所需的动力。
And the challenge that AI poses in some sense is the greatest challenge of humanity ever. And overcoming it will also bring the greatest reward. And in some sense, whether you like it or not, your life is going to be affected by AI to a great extent. And so looking at it, paying attention, and then generating the energy to solve the problems that will come up. That's going to be the main thing. And I'll stop here.
从某种意义上说,AI 带来的挑战是人类史上最伟大的挑战,而克服它也将带来最大的回报。在某种意义上,无论你是否喜欢,你的生活都将深受 AI 的影响。因此,关注它、重视它,并由此激发解决未来问题的动力,这才是最重要的。我就讲到这里。
Thank you so much.
非常感谢。
Unknown Speaker:
Thank you.
谢谢。