Early Life and the Development of Automated Option Pricing
早年生活与自动化期权定价的发展
Growing up in Hungary under communism, the importance of knowledge and reputation as non-seizable assets became a foundational philosophy. After arriving in the U.S. with limited resources, self-taught programming skills provided a pathway to Wall Street. By running simulations on early computers, a method was developed to determine the fair value of options based on probability distribution functions. This breakthrough allowed for the creation of a program that accurately priced options, leading to the accumulation of capital and the purchase of a seat on the American Stock Exchange in 1977.
在共产主义统治下的 Hungary 长大，使他形成了一种基础性理念：知识和声誉是不可被没收的资产。带着有限资源来到美国后，自学而来的编程技能为他打开了通往 Wall Street 的道路。通过在早期计算机上运行模拟，他发展出一种基于概率分布函数确定期权公允价值的方法。这一突破使他能够创建一个可以准确为期权定价的程序，并由此积累资本，最终在 1977 年购买了 American Stock Exchange 的席位。
Thomas Peterffy:
(00:00)
Anything that doesn't fly in the face of the laws of physics can be done. You can find a way to get it done unless it's physically impossible to get it done.
任何不违背物理定律的事情都可以做到。只要它在物理上不是不可能完成的，你就能找到办法把它做成。
Emanuel Balarie:
(00:35)
Hi, I'm Emanuel Balarie and welcome to the FundSeeder Rise podcast. Today, I'm thrilled to sit down with Thomas Peterffy, a true pioneer who changed the way we trade. Born in 1944 in Budapest during a Soviet bombing raid, he grew up under communism where his family lost everything, teaching him that the only assets no one can take for granted are knowledge and reputation. In 1965, he arrived in America with $100, no English, and no network. He started as a draftsman, taught himself programming, and walked onto the trading floor in the 1970s. While others shouted orders by hand...
你好，我是 Emanuel Balarie，欢迎收听 FundSeeder Rise 播客。今天，我很高兴能与 Thomas Peterffy 坐下来交谈，他是一位真正的先驱，改变了我们的交易方式。他 1944 年出生于 Budapest，当时正值 Soviet 轰炸期间；他在共产主义统治下长大，家里失去了一切，这让他明白，唯一不能被人理所当然拿走的资产，是知识和声誉。1965 年，他来到美国，身上只有 100 美元，不会英语，也没有人脉。他从制图员做起，自学编程，并在 1970 年代走进交易大厅。当其他人还在手工喊单时……
Thomas Peterffy:
(01:15)
1977.
1977 年。
Emanuel Balarie:
(01:17)
I'm sorry?
抱歉？
Thomas Peterffy:
(01:19)
1977. 1977. OK.
1977 年。1977 年。好的。
Emanuel Balarie:
(01:22)
So exactly 1977. And you imagine the machines and that he could trade human logic into algorithms. He later went on to found Interactive Brokers, one of the most technologically advanced brokerages in the world, pioneering electronic trading, systemizing what others thought required instinct, and really democratizing access to global markets. So Thomas, thank you so much for joining me today.
所以确切地说是 1977 年。你可以想象那些机器，以及他如何把人的交易逻辑转化为算法。后来，他创立了 Interactive Brokers，这是世界上技术最先进的券商之一，开创了电子交易，把别人认为需要凭直觉完成的事情系统化，并真正让更多人能够进入全球市场。所以 Thomas，非常感谢你今天参加我们的节目。
Thomas Peterffy:
(01:49)
It's a pleasure.
很高兴。
Emanuel Balarie:
(01:51)
So Thomas, we were talking earlier. I was born in Romania. You were obviously born in Hungary. But one of the stories and the things that I have brought on that your parents taught you really was that knowledge and your reputation are two things that cannot be taken away. So I'm curious how that philosophy actually shaped the way you approach risk, decision making and just building in general.
Thomas，我们刚才聊到，我出生在 Romania，而你显然出生在 Hungary。我提到过的一个故事，也是你父母真正教给你的东西，是知识和声誉这两样东西无法被夺走。所以我很好奇，这种理念实际上是如何塑造你看待风险、做决策，以及总体上建设事业的方式的。
Thomas Peterffy:
(02:19)
You know, my mother kept telling me that I don't think it had any impact on me. And I've been thinking, what does that really mean? I mean, it's very clear what it means, but so what? I mean, I always wanted to know whatever I could, but I wasn't very good at learning anything.
你知道，我母亲一直这样告诉我，但我不觉得它对我有什么影响。我一直在想，这到底是什么意思？我的意思是，它的字面意思很清楚，但那又怎样？我的意思是，我一直想尽可能多地了解一切，但我并不是很擅长学习任何东西。
Emanuel Balarie:
(02:40)
So that was your mother's philosophy, is what you're saying, about knowledge and reputation. But in many ways, your path to where you're at was unorthodox. You started as an engineer. You started as a draftsman. It was a continual pursuit of learning and not necessarily even just defaulting to what you had learned. You know, how did that pathway of innovation from a learning perspective take you to where you are at today?
所以你的意思是，关于知识和声誉，那是你母亲的理念。但从很多方面看，你走到今天这一步的路径并不正统。你一开始是工程师，是制图员。那是一种持续学习的追求，而且并不一定只是依赖你已经学到的东西。你知道，从学习的角度看，这条创新路径是如何把你带到今天这个位置的？
Thomas Peterffy:
(03:11)
So as I grew up in Hungary, there was censorship. And so, you know, we couldn't have access to any Contemporary books, but I was very lucky because my grandmother had a library of the classics, the English and French classics like Dickens and Balzac and Zola and Thackeray and Victor Hugo. So I read, you know, hundreds or thousands of those, of those novels. And that's where I, that's where I basically learned about anything, because otherwise there was very sparse material in Hungary available for reading anything.
我在 Hungary 长大的时候，那里有审查制度。所以，你知道，我们接触不到任何当代书籍，但我非常幸运，因为我祖母有一个经典文学书库，里面有 English 和 French 的经典作品，比如 Dickens、Balzac、Zola、Thackeray 和 Victor Hugo。所以我读了，怎么说，成百上千本那类小说。基本上，我就是在那里学到一切的，因为除此之外，在 Hungary 可以拿来阅读的材料非常稀少。
Emanuel Balarie:
(03:57)
So that maybe, from a knowledge perspective, did those early books help shape your worldview?
所以，从知识的角度看，那些早期读到的书是否帮助塑造了你的世界观？
Thomas Peterffy:
(04:05)
I guess, yes.
我想，是的。
Emanuel Balarie:
(04:06)
Yeah. So is there one book that you could think back now that over the years you could say that that book was almost like a definitive foundation for how I view the world?
是的。那么现在回想起来，有没有一本书，你可以说，多年来它几乎成为你看待世界方式的决定性基础？
Thomas Peterffy:
(04:21)
No, I'm nothing specific. No, no. Okay.
没有，没有哪一本特别具体的书。没有，没有。好的。
Emanuel Balarie:
(04:26)
Well, you came to the US and still your pathway was definitively unorthodox, you know, at Fun Cedar. As you know, our concept is it doesn't really matter where you're at in the world. You don't have to be on Wall Street. You don't have to graduate from Harvard. If you do apply yourself, you have an ability to grow as a trader and potentially manage capital. But when you came to the US, you only had $100. I think your dad gave you that from what I read based on your background. And you started this pathway of building a career for yourself. So I'm curious,
嗯，你来到美国后，你的道路仍然明显不是正统路径。你知道，在 FundSeeder，我们的理念是，你在世界上哪里其实并不重要。你不必在 Wall Street，也不必毕业于 Harvard。只要你真正投入，你就有能力成长为一名交易员，并且有可能管理资本。但你刚到美国时，身上只有 100 美元。根据我读到的关于你背景的资料，我想那是你父亲给你的。然后你开始走上一条为自己建立职业生涯的道路。所以我很好奇，
(05:06)
do you think that sort of lack of options and just having $100 and that created sort of perspective of risk tolerance that many traders today don't experience because they've grown up with a lot of money and they have that safety net?
你认为那种选择匮乏、身上只有 100 美元的处境，是否塑造了某种对风险承受能力的看法，而这种看法是今天很多交易员没有经历过的，因为他们从小拥有很多钱，也有安全网？
Thomas Peterffy:
(05:23)
So yeah, money at the beginning was a problem and I also wanted to get into business so I had to, whatever little money I could make, I had to save to use later as capital. So what really gave me my start was at one point I Well, so I learned to be a computer programmer early on because the job I had as a draftsman, the company bought a computer and they realized that nobody knew how to program it and they asked around if anybody could I would want to learn and since I didn't speak English, I figured computers would be easier to learn than a language. So, I learned computer programming and that gave me a route to eventually end up on Wall Street as a computer programmer.
是的，一开始钱确实是个问题，而且我也想进入商业领域，所以无论我能赚到多么少的钱，我都必须存下来，日后当作资本使用。真正让我起步的是，有一段时间——嗯，我很早就学会了做计算机程序员，因为我当时的工作是制图员，公司买了一台计算机，后来他们发现没有人知道怎么给它编程，于是四处询问有没有人愿意学。而因为我不会说英语，我觉得学习计算机会比学习一门语言更容易。所以，我学会了计算机编程，这最终给了我一条作为计算机程序员进入 Wall Street 的路径。
(06:27)
And so with the first money I saved, I bought a computer of my own. And then as I began to work on Wall Street in 69, somebody said to me, you know, there are all these options that people are trading over the counter and nobody knows how to price them. Maybe you could figure out how to price them. And I ran a large number of simulations on my computer and I eventually realized that it had all to do with the probability distribution function. And from that I derived my formula. It wasn't really a formula, it was a computer program that I generated that was able to very well figure out the fair value of an option. So,
于是，我用最早存下来的钱买了一台属于自己的计算机。后来，1969 年我开始在 Wall Street 工作时，有人对我说，你知道，现在有这些人们在场外交易的期权，但没人知道该怎么给它们定价。也许你能想出怎么定价。于是我在自己的计算机上运行了大量模拟，最后意识到这一切都与概率分布函数有关。基于这一点，我推导出了自己的公式。其实它并不是一个公式，而是我写出的一个计算机程序，能够非常好地计算出一个期权的公允价值。所以，
(07:21)
I ran through a lot of historical prices and my formula eventually got to the point where my errors were equally distributed on the two sides, so I had the right expected value for the options and that really Enticed me to really save even more money and more money and more money and finally by 77 I have accumulated $200,000. I bought a seat on the American Stock Exchange and I became a market maker for options on the floor, being the only one who had the right value for an option, so it wasn't very difficult for me to make money there.
我把大量历史价格跑了一遍，最后我的公式达到了这样一个程度：误差在两边均匀分布，所以我得到了期权正确的期望价值。这真的促使我不断存更多钱、更多钱、更多钱，最终到 1977 年，我已经积累了 20 万美元。我买下了 American Stock Exchange 的一个席位，成为交易大厅里的期权做市商。因为我是唯一一个知道期权正确价值的人，所以在那里赚钱对我来说并不太难。
⸻
Automating the Trading Floor and Navigating Regulatory Constraints
交易大厅自动化与监管约束下的应对
The transition to floor trading involved applying engineering principles to increase speed and efficiency. When faced with a regulatory mandate to enter orders manually via a keyboard, a mechanical solution was engineered using a box with pistons to automate the keystrokes. This innovation ensured compliance with existing rules while maintaining the speed of an automated system. The core belief driving this effort was that any task not violating the laws of physics can be accomplished through persistent problem-solving and determination.
转向场内交易的过程，本质上是把工程学原则应用到交易中，以提高速度和效率。当监管要求必须通过键盘手工输入订单时，他设计出一种机械解决方案：用一个装有活塞的盒子自动完成按键。这项创新既确保了对既有规则的遵守，又保持了自动化系统的速度。推动这一努力的核心信念是：任何不违背物理定律的任务，都可以通过持续解决问题和坚定执行来完成。
Emanuel Balarie:
(08:15)
So we'll talk about the floor experience and the market making, because I think that's obviously a pivotal time, not only in trading history, but in your history that launched you. But I'm curious, that moment of clarity that you had, I mean, you know, it was early, computers have been early at that time. You know, what made you, like, even think through that process and say, you know, this is, nobody's doing it. Everybody is, I mean, obviously, the status quo is everybody's calculating by the hand of their mind. Like, what was that moment of clarity on your side that said, I'm going to attempt to use this?
所以我们会谈到你在交易大厅的经历和做市业务，因为我认为那显然是一个关键时期，不仅在交易史上是如此，对你个人的发展来说也是如此，它真正推动了你的起步。但我很好奇，你当时那个清晰的时刻是怎样的。我的意思是，你知道，那是很早期，计算机在当时也还处于早期阶段。你知道，是什么让你开始这样思考，并且说，你知道，这件事没人做。所有人都——我的意思是，很明显，当时的现状是大家都靠自己的头脑手工计算。对你来说，那个让你说“我要尝试用这个东西”的清晰时刻，到底是什么？
Thomas Peterffy:
(08:52)
I just came to me naturally. I had no other way of thinking. That was the only way I thought about it.
这对我来说只是自然而然发生的。我没有其他思考方式。那就是我唯一的思考方式。
Emanuel Balarie:
(08:59)
And was it based on your previous experience using the computer for drafting?
这是否基于你此前用计算机做制图的经验？
Thomas Peterffy:
(09:04)
Yeah. I mean, you know, in surveying, there are many simple routines that That people use, where you do simple calculations that take, say, 15-20 minutes every time you have to make one. And when I was at that highway design firm, I wrote these simple programs on those computers, on that computer. And, you know, that cut the calculation time to, say, 30 seconds. I mean, it was fantastic. I felt terrific about it because people were lining up with their little calculation problems and I fed them in and I gave it back to them, if anything, gave it back to them. So, it was very useful. I felt really useful and that was great.
是的。我的意思是，你知道，在测量工作中，人们会用到很多简单的常规流程，需要做一些简单计算，而每次计算可能要花 15 到 20 分钟。当我在那家公路设计公司工作时，我就在那台计算机上写了这些简单程序。你知道，这把计算时间缩短到了大约 30 秒。我的意思是，这太棒了。我对此感觉非常好，因为人们会拿着他们的小计算问题排队来找我，我把它们输入进去，然后把结果交还给他们——无论如何，就是把结果交还给他们。所以，这非常有用。我觉得自己真的有用，这很好。
Emanuel Balarie:
(09:57)
Yeah, and so I would imagine then when he came to the trading, the same thing applied, except now in a market with speed is the difference of making money or not making money.
是的，所以我可以想象，当你来到交易领域时，同样的逻辑也适用，只不过现在是在一个速度决定能否赚钱的市场里。
Unknown Speaker:
(10:08)
It was a question of speed.
这是速度问题。
Thomas Peterffy:
(10:09)
Right.
对。
Emanuel Balarie:
(10:10)
Yeah. Okay, so take us then through, you left, you got a seat on the floor and you went into market making and And I know one of the stories, and of course, tell us a little bit more in detail, because I think it'd be fascinating for our users, is you're a board, you're executing trades on a daily basis, and you kind of, out of boredom, came up with this machine, this algorithm, and then eventually, obviously, the famous robot that helped you launch into.
是的。好的，那么请带我们回顾一下，你离开原来的工作，买下交易大厅席位，进入做市业务。我知道其中有一个故事，当然，也请你更详细地讲讲，因为我认为我们的用户会觉得非常有意思：你在场内每天执行交易，某种程度上因为无聊，你想出了这台机器、这个算法，后来显然又发展出了那个著名的机器人，帮助你进入下一阶段。
Thomas Peterffy:
(10:39)
Oh, that was much later. Yes. So, right. So, you know, the idea was to keep automating everything. And so, at one point, we had a completely automated market-making system that would take in all the prices and put out our own bids and offers. Everywhere, but since the exchanges were open outcry, we had to get those bids and offers to our own employees who worked on the floor and try to execute as many trades as possible on those bids and offers. And as soon as they executed one, they had to convey that back to the office, put it into the machine, and the machine adjusted the prices and gave out new bids and offers. And that went very well, but the NASDAQ had an automated system, a matching engine,
哦，那是很久以后了。是的。对。所以，你知道，当时的想法就是不断把一切自动化。后来在某个时候，我们已经有了一个完全自动化的做市系统，它会接收所有价格，然后给出我们自己的买价和卖价。到处都是这样，但因为交易所还是公开喊价制度，我们必须把这些买价和卖价传递给在交易大厅工作的我们自己的员工，让他们尽可能按照这些买价和卖价执行更多交易。只要他们完成一笔交易，就必须把信息传回办公室，输入机器，然后机器调整价格，再给出新的买价和卖价。这套系统运行得很好，但 NASDAQ 有一个自动化系统，一个撮合引擎，
(11:37)
where people could sit by their terminal and type in bids and offers and the NASDAQ, you know, just like today, the NASDAQ computer matched up the bids and offers and did the trades and sent back the confirmation. So one day we had a visit from a vice chairman of the Nasdaq who said, well, you guys are trading up a storm. I wonder how you're doing it. And he comes into the office and he says, but there's nobody here. What's going on here? I expected to have 20, 30 people sitting here screaming and yelling and there's nothing happening. But how do you do this? And so I pointed at the computer and I showed him That, you know,
人们可以坐在终端旁输入买价和卖价，然后 NASDAQ，你知道，就像今天一样，NASDAQ 的计算机会撮合买价和卖价，完成交易并发回确认。有一天，NASDAQ 的一位副主席来拜访我们，说，你们交易做得非常猛烈，我想知道你们是怎么做到的。他走进办公室后说，可这里没人啊。这是怎么回事？我原以为这里会有二三十个人坐着大喊大叫，但这里什么动静都没有。你们到底是怎么做到的？于是我指着计算机给他看，你知道，
(12:25)
it was just, we spliced into the wire and we issued all the orders electronically. And he thinks about it and he says, well, that's not acceptable because, look, here is in the rule book, you're supposed to enter each order via the keyboard. And he said, look, this is unacceptable. I'll be back here in a week. And if you're not utilizing the keyboard to enter. Each order, you will be shut down. So, you know, we didn't know what to do. And then eventually we came up with this idea of building a box over the keyboard that had pistons. And the pistons were driven by the computer and it typed, typed on the keyboard with pistons.
其实就是，我们接入线路，然后以电子方式发送所有订单。他想了想，说，这不可以，因为你看，规则手册里写着，你们应该通过键盘输入每一笔订单。他说，你看，这不能接受。我一周后再来。如果你们不是通过键盘输入每一笔订单，你们就会被关闭。所以，你知道，我们不知道该怎么办。后来我们终于想出了一个办法：在键盘上方做一个盒子，里面装上活塞。活塞由计算机驱动，然后用活塞在键盘上打字、敲击键盘。
(13:22)
So he comes back a week later, he looks around and he says, nothing changed here. At that moment, the box went... because it was typing extremely fast and very loud.
一周后他回来了，四处看了看，说，这里什么都没变。就在那一刻，那个盒子开始“哒哒哒”地响起来，因为它打字速度极快，而且声音非常大。
Emanuel Balarie:
(13:35)
Wow.
哇。
Thomas Peterffy:
(13:36)
And he says, what the heck is going on here? And I said, look, we're entering each order via the keyboard. That's just as you suggested.
他说，这到底是怎么回事？我说，你看，我们正在通过键盘输入每一笔订单。正如你建议的那样。
Emanuel Balarie:
(13:46)
And that was then allowed and he allowed it. He could not say anything.
然后这就被允许了，他也只能允许。他没法说什么。
Thomas Peterffy:
(13:50)
But there was nothing he could do about it. I mean, they could have changed the rules. You know, as far as the rules were concerned, we were in compliance. We entered each order via the keyboard.
但他对此无能为力。我的意思是，他们本可以修改规则。你知道，就规则本身而言，我们是合规的。我们确实通过键盘输入了每一笔订单。
Emanuel Balarie:
(14:04)
Now, did you come up with that solution yourself? Because I would imagine if you put a hundred people in the room, 99 of them are going to probably say, well, you know, it worked for a while, but obviously we can't, we need, we only one person can enter it. I mean, how many people would come up with like, Those Pistons, was that you? Was that the people you were working with?
那么，这个解决方案是你自己想出来的吗？因为我可以想象，如果你把一百个人放在一个房间里，九十九个人可能都会说，嗯，你知道，这套系统运行了一段时间，但显然我们不能这样了，我们需要——只能由一个人输入。我的意思是，会有多少人能想到用那些活塞？那是你想出来的吗？还是和你一起工作的人想出来的？
Thomas Peterffy:
(14:26)
Well, it's unclear to me as to... You know, we were, you know, maybe two or three of us together. Unclear to me who, I don't remember who came up with that specific idea. But, you know, my determination always was that there must be a way. There always must be a way. So as long as you know that there is a way, you can eventually, if you're sure that there is a way, then you will find it.
嗯，这一点我也不太清楚……你知道，当时可能是我们两三个人一起想的。我不清楚到底是谁，我不记得是谁提出了那个具体想法。但你知道，我一直有一种决心：一定有办法。一定总会有办法。所以，只要你知道存在某种办法，最终你就能找到；只要你确信有办法，你就会找到它。
Emanuel Balarie:
(14:57)
Yeah, and that's really good. You know, I have a 14-year-old son and a 12-year-old daughter and I think many people who are starting into trading, you know, that might have this almost just ideas or they're passionate about or they have a conviction, right? Let's say you had a conviction there had to be a way. And I think if I look back at your career, that's been almost like a hallmark of who you are, where you're not going to give up. There has to be a way. And if just because you don't want to see it now, it doesn't mean there's another pathway. How can you tell someone who has a conviction that even though there's everybody who tells them that it's not possible to keep going,
是的，这一点非常好。你知道，我有一个 14 岁的儿子和一个 12 岁的女儿。我想，很多刚开始进入交易领域的人，可能也会有一些想法，或者他们对某件事充满热情，或者他们有某种信念，对吧？比如说，你当时有一种信念：一定有办法。而我回顾你的职业生涯时，我觉得这几乎就是你的一个标志：你不会放弃。一定有办法。不能因为你现在看不到它，就说明不存在另一条路径。你会如何告诉一个有信念的人，即便所有人都告诉他这是不可能的，他仍然应该继续下去，
(15:36)
what advice would you tell You know, the younger generation.
你会给年轻一代什么建议？
⸻
Scaling Timber Hill and the Transition to Interactive Brokers
Timber Hill 的扩张与向 Interactive Brokers 的转型
Timber Hill evolved from a computerized market-making operation into a global electronic trading powerhouse. By replacing manual processes with radio-driven handheld computers, the firm enabled traders worldwide to interact directly with exchange crowds. The business model prioritized volume over high profit margins per trade, consistently lowering execution costs to encourage market participation. Eventually, the market-making operation was phased out to avoid conflicts of interest, allowing the firm to focus entirely on the customer-centric brokerage business of Interactive Brokers.
Timber Hill 从一家计算机化的做市机构，发展成为全球性的电子交易强者。通过用无线电驱动的手持计算机取代人工流程，公司让世界各地的交易员能够直接与交易所场内人群互动。其商业模式优先追求交易量，而不是每笔交易的高利润率，并持续降低执行成本，以鼓励市场参与。最终，为避免利益冲突，做市业务被逐步退出，使公司能够完全专注于以客户为中心的 Interactive Brokers 经纪业务。
Thomas Peterffy:
(15:40)
Well, anything that doesn't fly in the face of the laws of physics can be done. You can find a way to get it done unless it's physically impossible to get it done.
嗯，任何不违背物理定律的事情都可以做到。只要它在物理上不是不可能完成的，你就能找到办法把它做成。
Emanuel Balarie:
(15:53)
Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. So, from a perspective of just because somebody has not uncovered it doesn't mean it's not possible.
是的。是的，这说得通。所以，从这个角度看，不能因为某个人还没有发现办法，就说明它不可能。
Thomas Peterffy:
(16:02)
That's absolutely right.
完全正确。
Emanuel Balarie:
(16:03)
And that's the idea of knowledge. You continued on and if you could tell our audience so obviously very successful now you have these quote robots and you created a market making firm and most people today know you for Interactive Brokers but before Interactive Brokers, Timber Hill was just a fantastic success story. Can you take us through that journey?
这也是知识的意义。你继续往前走，如果你能给我们的听众讲一讲——显然你后来非常成功，你有了这些所谓的“机器人”，并创立了一家做市公司。今天大多数人知道你，是因为 Interactive Brokers，但在 Interactive Brokers 之前，Timber Hill 本身就是一个非常精彩的成功故事。你能带我们回顾一下这段历程吗？
Thomas Peterffy:
(16:33)
Yeah, so, so, well, you know, in the early 80s, we, as I mentioned before, the Nasdaq example, we created this This computerized system that was driven by interconnected many, many IBM PCs, they were interconnected and each one had the responsibility of calculating the prices very, very quickly for an option and constantly refreshing itself. So we had a system where we drove bid and offer markets for Basically all the options that were traded in the United States and eventually also in Europe and Asia, where by the way the markets were already electronic by the 1990s. So in the US that was still open outcry and we had to have people.
是的，所以，嗯，你知道，在 1980 年代初，正如我之前提到 NASDAQ 的例子时说的，我们创建了这个计算机化系统，它由许多互相连接的 IBM PC 驱动。这些计算机彼此连接，每一台都负责非常非常快速地计算某个期权的价格，并不断自我刷新。所以我们有了一个系统，可以为基本上所有在美国交易的期权生成买价和卖价市场，后来也扩展到 Europe 和 Asia。顺便说一句，到 1990 年代，那些市场已经是电子化的了。但在美国，当时仍然是公开喊价制度，所以我们必须有人在场内。
(17:33)
Who we would send these trades, the orders to, and that was always the biggest challenge, how to convey our bids and offers to our employees on the floors. And so at the beginning we put it on screens that we were driving by telephonic wires and they were And then the problem was that they couldn't read the screens from far away because we were not allowed to put the screens in the middle of the floor. We had to add them on the edge of the floor by the wall so they couldn't run back and forth and look at the number and run back to where the trading took place. So then we replaced the numbers with color strips. And so you could, being maybe 20, 30, 40 feet away,
我们会把这些交易、这些订单发送给他们，而最大的挑战始终是：如何把我们的买价和卖价传递给交易大厅里的员工。一开始，我们把价格显示在屏幕上，这些屏幕由电话线驱动。后来问题是，他们离得远时看不清屏幕，因为我们不被允许把屏幕放在交易大厅中央。我们只能把屏幕放在大厅边缘、靠墙的位置，所以他们不可能来回跑，先看数字，再跑回实际交易发生的地方。于是我们用彩色条带替代数字。因此，即使你站在大约 20、30、40 英尺之外，
(18:28)
you could look at the screen and see the color strips, and each color stood for a digit. So people were able to read our bids and offers, and that's how we were doing the trading. And that was extremely successful. So basically, you know, when I went down on the floor in 77, I had $200,000 of savings. And by 2007, when we went public, we had $4 billion of retained income. All taxes were all paid. So it was $4,000 after taxes. And that gave us then the capital to go public, basically. So at one point, we were able to replace these colorful screens with radio-driven handheld computers.
你也可以看着屏幕识别那些彩色条带，每一种颜色代表一个数字。所以人们就能读出我们的买价和卖价，我们就是这样进行交易的。这套方式极其成功。基本上，你知道，1977 年我进入交易大厅时，手里有 20 万美元储蓄。到 2007 年我们上市时，我们已经有了 40 亿美元留存收益。所有税都已经缴清。所以这是税后的 40 亿美元。基本上，这给了我们上市所需的资本。后来在某个时候，我们能够用无线电驱动的手持计算机取代这些彩色屏幕。
(19:29)
So our employees then start to carry small handheld computers that were driven by radio waves and we could communicate directly by radio waves. So the first exchange where we were able to bring in these handheld computers were the Chicago Merck. Where in the S&P 500 pit, we put in two people, one representing all our buy orders, one representing our sale orders. And then we had this idea that we could connect Via the internet, people around the world took these handheld devices. So we, that's something, and thereby they could interact with the other people in the pit. Namely, they could put in their bids and offers, look at the order book,
于是，我们的员工开始携带由无线电波驱动的小型手持计算机，我们也可以通过无线电波直接通信。我们第一个能够带入这些手持计算机的交易所是 Chicago Merc。在 S&P 500 交易池里，我们安排了两个人，一个代表我们所有买入订单，一个代表我们所有卖出订单。后来我们有了一个想法：可以通过互联网连接，让世界各地的人使用这些手持设备。这样，他们就可以与交易池里的其他人互动。也就是说，他们可以输入自己的买价和卖价，查看订单簿，
(20:27)
which they would see the same way as the two people standing on the floor would see, and they could Trade with the crowd. And that's how everybody, wherever they were, even in Asia, they could basically interact with the crowd. So that's why we call it Interactive Brokers.
他们看到的内容，和站在交易大厅里的那两个人看到的是一样的，并且他们可以和场内人群交易。这样，无论人们在哪里，甚至在 Asia，基本上都可以和场内人群互动。这就是为什么我们把它叫作 Interactive Brokers。
Emanuel Balarie:
(20:47)
So that was the natural progression from Timberhill is eventually you saw like a much bigger opportunity of then democratizing and offering that same type of system and process to people. You know, it's interesting, Thomas, Like just talking to you in your journey, I mean even from the draftsman and the first time you had a computer, it's really all about if something can be automated or you could place a system around it and you could do it much faster. Then that becomes your edge. I mean, is that kind of...
所以，这是从 Timber Hill 自然发展出来的路径：最终你看到了一个大得多的机会，也就是把同样类型的系统和流程民主化，提供给更多人。你知道，Thomas，和你聊你的经历很有意思。我的意思是，即使从你做制图员、第一次接触计算机开始，核心似乎都是：如果某件事可以被自动化，或者你可以围绕它建立一个系统，并且更快地完成它，那么这就会成为你的优势。我的意思是，是不是有点像……
Thomas Peterffy:
(21:23)
Precision is probably more important than speed.
精确性可能比速度更重要。
Emanuel Balarie:
(21:28)
Yeah. I'm sorry, what's more important?
是的。抱歉，什么更重要？
Thomas Peterffy:
(21:31)
Precision. Precision. Because, you see, the idea was that the tighter we could make the market, the more often we were able to trade. So we were always sacrificing Profits for volume. I always believed that it's better to make a smaller amount of money on many, many, many more trades. So, the profit times the trade, the sum adds up to an ever greater amount. So, because, you know, when we started in the options business, the bids and offer differentials were sometimes half a dollar. It was just Since it was so wide, the market was so wide, it was very difficult for people to make money in the markets because they had to overcome that The execution expense before they could make a profit.
精确性。精确性。因为，你看，核心想法是：我们能把市场价差做得越窄，就越经常能够成交。所以我们一直是在用利润换交易量。我一直相信，在大量、大量、非常大量的交易中，每笔赚更少的钱，是更好的方式。这样，单笔利润乘以交易次数，总和会累积成越来越大的金额。因为，你知道，我们刚进入期权业务时，买价和卖价之间的差额有时是半美元。价差太宽了，市场太宽了，人们很难在市场里赚钱，因为他们必须先克服那部分执行成本，之后才可能盈利。
(22:33)
I always believed that the smaller we can make the execution expense, the more people would trade. And that is actually what happened.
我一直相信，我们能把执行成本降得越低，就会有越多人交易。而实际情况也确实如此。
Emanuel Balarie:
(22:44)
Yeah. You layered on top sort of the market-making strategy on the brokerage industry, whereas other brokerage firms probably did not look at it from that perspective. And that's really what made you successful. One of the questions that I do have in terms of transitioning from Timber Hill, you decided to shut it down at a certain point. And so kind of a point that might be relevant to our listeners, how do you make a decision to shut down something that is doing well, but perhaps is You know, it's time to move on.
是的。你某种程度上把做市策略叠加到了经纪行业之上，而其他券商可能并没有从这个角度看问题。这也正是你成功的关键。关于从 Timber Hill 转型，我有一个问题：你在某个时候决定把它关闭。所以这也许对我们的听众有参考意义：当某项业务表现不错，但也许已经到了该进入下一阶段的时候，你是如何做出关闭它的决定的？
Thomas Peterffy:
(23:21)
Well, the fact is that it wasn't doing that well when we shut it down. So what happened was that after the 2000 crash, other people started to realize that you could automate trading and they decided to buy more order flow from the retail brokerage firms. And by that time I had interactive brokers and I said, well, I cannot My market making operation cannot trade against my customers because that would be a conflict of interest. So, I was, and I was regulatory also, was obliged to keep the market making operation completely separate from the customer business. Other people went and they just bought order flow and they executed it against themselves.
嗯，事实是，当我们关闭它时，它表现并没有那么好。发生的情况是，2000 年崩盘之后，其他人开始意识到交易可以自动化，于是他们决定从零售券商那里购买更多订单流。而到那时，我已经有了 Interactive Brokers，我就说，嗯，我的做市业务不能和我的客户对手交易，因为那会构成利益冲突。所以，我在监管上也有义务把做市业务和客户业务完全分开。其他人则去购买订单流，然后自己作为对手方执行这些订单。
(24:16)
So, as a result, the retail order flow basically disappeared. From the exchanges. And as a result, our market making operation was doing less and less well. And at one point I said, well, you know, we cannot continue both of these businesses. We have to go with one. Which one should we go with? And I said, OK, let's go with the customer business. And so that's why we quit the market making business.
所以，结果是，零售订单流基本上从交易所消失了。于是，我们的做市业务表现越来越差。到某个时候我说，嗯，你知道，我们不能继续同时经营这两项业务。我们必须选择其中一个。该选择哪一个？我说，好吧，那就选择客户业务。所以，这就是我们退出做市业务的原因。
⸻
通过技术与纪律优化投资者表现
Interactive Brokers clients consistently outperform the S&P 500, with hedge fund clients beating the index by over 11% in 2025. This success is attributed to extremely low transaction costs, the avoidance of trading against customers, and a focus on serious, well-researched investment strategies. Successful traders prioritize the use of limit orders over market orders and utilize options for both risk management and profit generation. Long-term success is further supported by maintaining a clear purpose, writing down specific goals, and reviewing progress regularly.
Interactive Brokers 的客户持续跑赢 S&P 500，其中对冲基金客户在 2025 年跑赢该指数超过 11%。这种成功归因于极低的交易成本、避免与客户对手交易，以及专注于严肃、经过充分研究的投资策略。成功的交易员会优先使用限价订单，而不是市价订单，并利用期权进行风险管理和利润创造。长期成功还需要清晰的目标、写下具体目标，并定期回顾进展。
Emanuel Balarie:
(24:48)
Yeah. Was competitors were also coming in?
是的。当时竞争对手也开始进入了吗？
Thomas Peterffy:
(24:52)
I mean, it was no, I mean, you know, the competitors at that time were basically Citadel, Susquehanna, the same guys. Well, J Street is a new one, but.
我的意思是，不是……我的意思是，你知道，当时的竞争对手基本上是 Citadel、Susquehanna，还是那些人。嗯，Jane Street 是新的一个，但……
Emanuel Balarie:
(25:02)
Yeah. So you transition. So right now for interactive brokers, I know it's you have traders from A lot of countries. I don't know what the exact number is. You've expanded where, I mean, we have people that I've spoken to that are from the U.S. to Hungary to Romania to, you know...
是的。所以你完成了转型。现在对 Interactive Brokers 来说，我知道你们有来自很多国家的交易员。我不知道确切数字。你们已经扩展到很多地方。我的意思是，我聊过的人里，有来自美国的，也有来自 Hungary、Romania 的，还有，你知道……
Thomas Peterffy:
(25:26)
Everywhere.
到处都有。
Emanuel Balarie:
(25:27)
Everywhere. When you built that, and even now in terms of how you're viewing of the future, is it... Look, I just want to optimize how much money I make because that's like from an engineering perspective.
到处都有。当你建立这家公司时，甚至现在你看未来时，是不是……你看，我只是想优化自己能赚多少钱，因为从工程角度看，似乎就是这样。
Thomas Peterffy:
(25:40)
No, it's not. No. I want to optimize how well my customers do. And this is what I'm really, really very, very proud of. So for 2025, the Interactive Brokers customers, the individual customers have beat the S&P by 1.3%. All of them together. And that's over a million customers. So we took all the customers who had, who started 2025 with $50,000 or more, and we looked at where they finished the year. And they were all, the S&P was up something like 16%, and our customers were up 17.3%. So the average customer beat the S&P by 1.3%. Now, the average RIA customer, registered investment advisor customer, beat the S&P by 2.67% and the big one is the average hedge fund,
不，不是这样。不。我要优化的是我的客户表现得有多好。这才是我真正、真正、非常非常自豪的事情。比如 2025 年，Interactive Brokers 的客户，也就是个人客户，跑赢 S&P 1.3%。这是所有个人客户合在一起的结果。而这超过 100 万名客户。我们选取了所有在 2025 年初账户里有 5 万美元或以上资金的客户，然后看他们年底时的结果。S&P 大约上涨了 16%，而我们的客户上涨了 17.3%。所以，平均客户跑赢 S&P 1.3%。再看平均的 RIA 客户，也就是注册投资顾问客户，他们跑赢 S&P 2.67%。而最重要的是平均对冲基金客户，
(26:46)
so we have about, what was it, I think, 2,000, 2,350 hedge funds, something like that. They together beat the S&P by 11.01%. That's a staggering number, right? So I am extremely, I mean, that's the ultimate that I couldn't have.
我们大约有，是多少来着，我想是 2,000 家、2,350 家对冲基金，差不多这个数量。他们合计跑赢 S&P 11.01%。这是一个惊人的数字，对吧？所以我极其——我的意思是，这就是我能拥有的最终成就。
Emanuel Balarie:
(27:16)
Yeah, those are actually unbelievable data that you just reported because Most people, when they think about retail trading, you know, they lose money and they churn and there's...
是的，你刚才提到的数据确实令人难以置信，因为大多数人一想到散户交易，就会想到他们亏钱、频繁换手，还有……
Thomas Peterffy:
(27:30)
Yeah, and this is, of course, after all costs. This is after all costs.
是的，而且这当然是在扣除所有成本之后。这是在扣除所有成本之后。
Emanuel Balarie:
(27:35)
Yeah.
是的。
Thomas Peterffy:
(27:36)
It's all the commissions and exchange fees are all taken out of these performance figures.
所有佣金和交易所费用都已经从这些业绩数字里扣除了。
Emanuel Balarie:
(27:41)
So, I'm curious, and we're going to spend the bulk of kind of conversations. I do want to get your thoughts on traders and trading talent and what you're able to see from your seat. But do you think at the core of why that's the case, is it the lower cost? Is it the technology that's brought transparency in an education element? Why would you sum up versus other brokerage firms or retail traders why that performance has been there?
所以我很好奇，我们接下来会把大部分谈话放在这类问题上。我确实想听听你对交易员和交易天赋的看法，以及从你的位置上能看到什么。但你认为造成这种结果的核心原因是什么？是更低的成本吗？是技术带来的透明度和教育因素吗？如果和其他券商或散户交易员相比，你会如何总结为什么这种业绩能够出现？
Thomas Peterffy:
(28:09)
So it's all those things. Obviously, the smaller the transaction cost, the better you will do because You know, you often, especially on larger orders for hedge funds who use prime brokers, their orders are front-run by them. By the prime brokerage desk, you understand why they are not performing as well as they should. So that's the number one thing. Very low transaction costs and obviously no trading with your customers or as a matter of fact trying to. So we have an ATS. And in our ATS, we encourage people to trade with market orders, so we have resting orders in our ATS. And when we have many of the smaller retail orders come in,
这些因素都有。显然，交易成本越低，你的表现就会越好，因为，你知道，尤其是对那些使用主经纪商的对冲基金来说，较大的订单经常会被他们抢先交易。是被主经纪业务部门抢先交易，你就能理解为什么他们的表现没有达到应有水平。所以这是第一点。非常低的交易成本，而且显然不与自己的客户对手交易，事实上也不会试图这样做。所以我们有一个替代交易系统。在我们的替代交易系统里，我们鼓励人们用市价订单交易，因此我们的替代交易系统里有挂单。当许多较小的零售订单进来时，
(29:07)
we execute them in the ATS as long as the bids and offers in the ATS are better than what we can see in the marketplace, right? But that way, both sides benefit, right? And that is extremely important. But maybe even more important is that our customers tend to be serious, serious investors. So they do their homework. We try to provide as much research capability as possible. But today with AI, there is all the research available for you.
只要替代交易系统里的买价和卖价优于我们在市场上能看到的价格，我们就会在替代交易系统里执行这些订单，对吧？这样一来，双方都会受益，对吧？这一点极其重要。但也许更重要的是，我们的客户往往是非常严肃、非常认真的投资者。所以他们会做功课。我们尽可能提供更多研究能力。但今天有了人工智能，所有研究资料都可以为你所用。
Emanuel Balarie:
(29:47)
Yeah.
是的。
Thomas Peterffy:
(29:48)
So we very much encourage our clients to To do their own research, we have a lot of research facilities on our platform, but so it's very important that they be well informed. So we want our customers to be the best informed on the street, and they are.
所以我们非常鼓励客户自己做研究。我们的平台上有大量研究工具，因此，让他们充分了解信息非常重要。我们希望自己的客户成为市场上信息最充分的人，而他们也确实如此。
Emanuel Balarie:
(30:13)
Yeah, that's good insight. So Thomas, you know, the FundSeeder thesis is that we believe and have always believed that elite trading talent often goes unseen and it's possibly some of the best ones are, and we've seen them actually, are trading at interactive brokers, but yet they don't have access to it. Everybody has access to interactive brokers.
是的，这是很好的洞察。Thomas，你知道，FundSeeder 的核心观点是，我们相信，而且一直相信，顶尖交易人才常常不被看见；其中一些最优秀的人，实际上我们也见过，正在 Interactive Brokers 上交易，但他们并没有获得相应的机会。每个人都可以使用 Interactive Brokers。
Thomas Peterffy:
(30:44)
I mean, you can open an account with a dollar.
我的意思是，你用一美元就可以开户。
Emanuel Balarie:
(30:46)
Yeah, yeah, you can. Absolutely. But from the point of your seed and now transition, because I know a lot of our viewers are these, you know, active traders that in many ways follow your playbook. Like, you know, they've honed their craft, they're using Interactive Brokers, and now they want to maybe launch their own firm, or they want to transition and to grow, but there's still obviously tremendous barriers of entry. One of the things that's helpful is, from your seat, when you've observed the best traders, however you want to define best, discipline, etc., what are some early behaviors or habits that you typically say, hey, this signals long-term success?
是的，是的，确实可以。完全可以。但从你的视角来看，以及现在转到这个问题，因为我知道我们的很多观众都是这些活跃交易员，他们在很多方面遵循你的路径。比如，他们已经打磨了自己的技艺，正在使用 Interactive Brokers，现在他们也许想创立自己的公司，或者想完成转型并成长起来，但显然仍然存在巨大的进入壁垒。有一点会很有帮助：从你的位置上看，当你观察最优秀的交易员时，不管你如何定义“最优秀”——纪律等等——有哪些早期行为或习惯，通常会让你说，嘿，这预示着长期成功？
(31:34)
Like if somebody's starting to trade in this way or like, I think this guy has something.
比如，如果某个人开始以这种方式交易，或者你会觉得，我认为这个人有点东西。
Thomas Peterffy:
(31:40)
So, what I think is most common among the best traders is that they always use limit orders. They very, very seldom go and take an offer. It almost never happens or hit a bid. They always negotiate in the marketplace with limit orders. And I think that's probably lesson number one that anybody in trading should understand.
所以，我认为最优秀交易员最普遍的特点是，他们总是使用限价订单。他们非常、非常少直接接受卖价。那几乎不会发生，也很少直接打到买价。他们总是在市场中用限价订单进行谈判。我认为这大概是任何从事交易的人都应该理解的第一课。
Emanuel Balarie:
(32:10)
Any other couple other points?
还有其他几点吗？
Thomas Peterffy:
(32:13)
Other than that, it's again, I keep emphasizing, research, research, research. Know the stocks. Know the stocks that you are trading. Don't just get into anything that moves only because it's moving. You have to understand what you're doing. You have to understand the underlying businesses.
除此之外，还是我一直强调的：研究、研究、研究。了解股票。了解你正在交易的股票。不要仅仅因为某个东西在动，就冲进去交易。你必须理解自己在做什么。你必须理解背后的企业。
Emanuel Balarie:
(32:36)
Yeah, so I would imagine from a data perspective, I'm just curious, it could be wrong. If you're able to see, if you have a funnel of all the interactive broker traders, the ones that use limit orders funnel down through and then the ones that you see maybe are using your research portals or they're like analyzing or listening to stuff even more. It's almost like a disproportionate I'm guessing, but you probably know better, that those are much more likely to succeed than the ones that are not doing those two points that you talked about.
是的，所以从数据角度看，我会想象，我只是好奇，也可能是错的。如果你能够看到，如果你把所有 Interactive Brokers 的交易员放进一个漏斗里，那些使用限价订单的人筛下来，然后再筛出那些你看到可能正在使用你们研究入口，或者更深入分析、听取资料的人。我猜，这些人成功的概率应该不成比例地更高——当然你可能更清楚——比那些没有做到你刚才提到这两点的人更可能成功。
Thomas Peterffy:
(33:09)
Absolutely. And, you know, what's very important is using options. I mean, you know, almost all our successful clients are heavy users of options.
绝对如此。而且，你知道，非常重要的一点是使用期权。我的意思是，你知道，我们几乎所有成功客户都是期权的重度使用者。
Emanuel Balarie:
(33:23)
From a risk management perspective, from just a company...
是从风险管理角度，还是仅仅从公司……
Thomas Peterffy:
(33:26)
Both, for risk and for profit, right. I mean, you know, especially in these markets where everybody is sitting on substantial gains, right, what happens is that, you know, most people try to sell out of their money, calls, For against their portfolio that they are holding. As a matter of fact, many people are just buying in the money calls and selling out of the money calls and that they generate their profits that way and they don't even use stocks. Many of them. And of course, many, you know, the people who have a lot of money can afford to sell puts. So they sell puts, they sell calls. That's how the money comes in.
两者都有，既为了风险，也为了利润，对吧。我的意思是，你知道，尤其是在这些市场中，每个人都坐拥可观收益，对吧，实际发生的情况是，你知道，大多数人会针对自己持有的投资组合卖出价外看涨期权。事实上，很多人只是买入价内看涨期权，同时卖出价外看涨期权，并通过这种方式创造利润，他们甚至不用股票。很多人都是这样。当然，很多有大量资金的人有能力卖出看跌期权。所以他们卖出看跌期权，卖出看涨期权。钱就是这样进来的。
Emanuel Balarie:
(34:20)
Yeah. So your viewpoint, and this is extremely helpful in terms of some of the behavior traits and sort of habits, if you will, that that these traders are doing, are you, and I wouldn't say anti, that's not the right word, but what do you think about discretionary traders, right? Because.
是的。所以你的观点——这对于理解这些交易员的一些行为特征和习惯非常有帮助——你是否，我不会说你反对，这个词不准确，但你怎么看主观交易员，对吧？因为……
Thomas Peterffy:
(34:42)
Discretionary trading.
主观交易。
Emanuel Balarie:
(34:43)
Discretionary versus systematic. So from a, for people who don't have necessarily an algorithm in place.
主观交易和系统化交易。也就是说，对于那些不一定有算法系统的人来说。
Thomas Peterffy:
(34:51)
Oh no, I don't, I don't believe in discretionary trading at all.
哦，不，我完全不相信主观交易。
Emanuel Balarie:
(34:55)
Yeah.
是的。
Thomas Peterffy:
(34:56)
I never used that word, but I mean, you have to have a system or a purpose or a, yeah, you have to have a way of, a regular way of doing the business. It's not, I mean, if you don't have a system, You can do that for fun, but this is not supposed to be fun. It is fun when you're doing well. It's a lot of fun, I tell you that, but it's not just on a lark you buy or sell something.
我从来不用那个词，但我的意思是，你必须有一个系统，或者一个目标，或者——是的，你必须有一种做事方式，一种有规律的业务方式。它不是——我的意思是，如果你没有系统，你可以把它当作娱乐来做，但这件事本来不应该只是娱乐。当你做得好的时候，它确实很有趣。我告诉你，那会非常有趣，但你不能只是心血来潮就买入或卖出某个东西。
Emanuel Balarie:
(35:34)
One of the other interviews I've had have been with these trading coaches or trading psychologists, if you will, that focus on mindset. This is different than creating a system or trying to figure out the quickest way to optimize. But some of the best traders in the world, some of the people, you know, have had psychological traits where it's been an aspect of mindset. And I see you as such, right? One who has been disciplined in their mind control. Is there something from Mindset, going back to the early days when he came to America from Hungary, that you think predicts long-term success, whether it's in trading or in life?
我做过的其他一些访谈，是和一些交易教练，或者说交易心理学家进行的，他们专注于心态。这不同于建立系统，也不同于试图找到最快的优化方式。但世界上一些最优秀的交易员，一些人，你知道，确实具备某些心理特征，其中有一部分就是心态。我认为你也是这样，对吧？你是一个在心智控制上非常有纪律的人。回到你早年从 Hungary 来到美国的时候，从心态角度看，有没有什么东西是你认为能够预测长期成功的，无论是在交易中，还是在人生中？
Thomas Peterffy:
(36:19)
Yeah. I would think that it's very important to have a purpose, always have a purpose, and to Write down where you want to end up and to write down the steps how you're going to get there and to review those steps very, very often and as you go along try to modify them and never let a day go by without taking a step.
是的。我认为非常重要的是要有一个目标，始终要有一个目标，并且写下你最终想要到达哪里，再写下你准备如何到达那里的步骤，然后非常、非常频繁地回顾这些步骤，并在推进过程中尝试修改它们，同时不要让任何一天在没有迈出一步的情况下过去。
Emanuel Balarie:
(36:51)
And do you still do that?
你现在还这样做吗？
Thomas Peterffy:
(36:53)
I don't do it anymore, but I did it for something like 30 or 40 years. I mean, now it's so ingrained that it's all in my head. I don't have to write it down.
我现在不再这样做了，但我曾经这样做了大约 30 或 40 年。我的意思是，现在它已经太根深蒂固了，都在我脑子里。我不需要再写下来。
Emanuel Balarie:
(37:05)
Yeah.
是的。
Thomas Peterffy:
(37:06)
Yeah.
是的。
Emanuel Balarie:
(37:06)
It is very similar to self-reflection or to journaling and realize what you can improve and what you can do. And again, that's applicable, obviously, for trading and building businesses, but in life, right? I think that's...
这和自我反思，或者写日志非常相似，意识到自己可以改进什么、可以做什么。而且，这显然适用于交易和创业，但也适用于人生，对吧？我认为这是……
Thomas Peterffy:
(37:22)
Yeah, absolutely.
是的，完全如此。
⸻
The Future of Prediction Markets and Societal Concerns
预测市场的未来与社会层面的担忧
Prediction markets represent the next major evolution in finance, offering a way to model the future through consensus on economic, environmental, and social questions. Unlike sports-focused betting, these markets provide valuable data on future trends that can inform investment decisions. While the future of trading is being built through these platforms, broader concerns persist regarding the global rise of socialist ideologies. The experience of living under a system where individuals cannot benefit from their own work product highlights the risks of such policies, which remain a significant concern for the future of global prosperity.
预测市场代表着金融领域的下一次重大演进，它提供了一种通过人们对经济、环境和社会问题的共识来模拟未来的方式。不同于以体育为中心的博彩，这些市场能够提供关于未来趋势的有价值数据，从而为投资决策提供参考。尽管交易的未来正在通过这些平台被构建起来，但关于社会主义意识形态在全球范围内上升的更广泛担忧依然存在。曾经生活在一个个人无法从自己劳动成果中受益的制度下，这种经历凸显了此类政策的风险，而这仍然是全球繁荣未来面临的一个重大担忧。
Emanuel Balarie:
(37:24)
That's a valid point. So going back to, you know, curious your thought, obviously, you've given access to anybody from all anywhere around the world can have access to technology, get excellent pricing, you know, research to trade their accounts. But one dilemma, a dilemma, but one of the things that we've been trying to solve at FundSeeder, and I think when we first met, when I first met you at your office, I don't know, maybe 10 years ago, is how do you How do you allow successful traders now to compete against other big fund managers that have the relationships, the connection, the infrastructure? You've seen talented traders on your platform and so have I.
这是一个有效的观点。所以回到这个问题，你知道，我很好奇你的看法。显然，你已经让世界各地的任何人都可以接触到技术，获得优秀的定价，你知道，还可以获得研究工具来交易自己的账户。但有一个困境，或者说我们在 FundSeeder 一直试图解决的一个问题——我想我们第一次见面时，我第一次在你办公室见到你，大概是 10 年前——就是如何让那些成功的交易员现在能够与那些拥有关系、人脉和基础设施的大型基金经理竞争？你在你的平台上见过有天赋的交易员，我也见过。
(38:05)
Why do you think the industry from an asset management perspective is still not very much automated and still relationship-driven, who you know, the gatekeepers? And the second part of that question is, From your wisdom, what is a way to, and is there a way to potentially automate and give access to talented traders who then actually manage money, better price for investors, and apply really the same model you've applied for market making to trading, but to the asset management side?
你为什么认为，从资产管理的角度看，这个行业仍然没有高度自动化，仍然由关系驱动，由你认识谁、由那些守门人决定？这个问题的第二部分是，凭你的智慧，有没有一种方式，或者是否可能通过自动化，让有天赋的交易员获得机会，使他们真正能够管理资金，为投资者提供更好的价格，并把你在做市和交易中应用的同一种模式，真正应用到资产管理端？
Thomas Peterffy:
(38:41)
I think the issue is that there are many pools of capital where the owners of that capital are not directly responsible for the investing of that money. And then the people who are entrusted with it institutionally Sometimes maybe don't really care as much as if it were their own money. So, you know, they are maybe not so involved. They entrust the money to somebody else to manage and there are ...situations where, you know, a pension fund holder sits on one end and there are two, three, four people in between that pension fund holder and the ultimate decision-maker in the investment. And that, of course, is a problem. I mean, you know, but that's how it ends up.
我认为问题在于，有许多资金池，其资本所有者并不直接负责这些资金的投资。于是，那些在制度上被托付管理这些资金的人，有时可能并不会像管理自己的钱那样在意。所以，你知道，他们也许没有那么投入。他们把钱托付给别人管理，而且存在这样的情况：你知道，一个养老基金持有人坐在一端，而在这个养老基金持有人和最终投资决策者之间，隔着两个人、三个人、四个人。当然，这就是问题。我的意思是，你知道，但事情最后就是这样发展出来的。
Emanuel Balarie:
(39:43)
Yeah. So it's more of the infrastructure on that. Unless somebody has direct control over their assets to control it, then you have those classic gatekeepers or barriers that are in place right now.
是的。所以这更多是基础设施层面的问题。除非某个人能够直接控制自己的资产，否则你就会面对现在存在的那些典型守门人或障碍。
Thomas Peterffy:
(39:58)
I mean, the fact is that any simple person who doesn't know anything about anything can open a brokerage account and buy an ETF, right? Buy, say, the S&P. 500 ETF and just sit on it, that person will do a heck of a lot better than having various managers. We're investing their money.
我的意思是，事实是，任何一个对任何事情都一无所知的普通人，都可以开一个券商账户，然后买入一只 ETF，对吧？比如买入 S&P 500 ETF，然后就持有不动。这个人的表现会比把钱交给各种管理人去投资好得多。
Emanuel Balarie:
(40:25)
Yeah. OK, Thomas, transitioning to a few more questions and I really appreciate your time. You're still working right now.
是的。好的，Thomas，我们转到另外几个问题，也非常感谢你的时间。你现在还在工作。
Thomas Peterffy:
(40:34)
Absolutely. I'm working every day. I'm sitting right here at my desk.
当然。我每天都在工作。我现在就坐在自己的办公桌前。
Emanuel Balarie:
(40:41)
Can I throw you a retirement party? I mean, when are you going to retire?
我能给你办一个退休派对吗？我的意思是，你准备什么时候退休？
Thomas Peterffy:
(40:46)
There is no retirement party. Not on the horizon. No, no. People who retire die within a year or two.
没有退休派对。可见的未来没有。不，不。退休的人一两年内就会死。
Emanuel Balarie:
(40:54)
So yeah, I was obviously kidding about that, but you strike me as a person who's always looking and trying to...
是的，关于这个我显然是在开玩笑，但你给我的印象是，你是一个总是在观察、总是在尝试……
Thomas Peterffy:
(41:05)
There is a heck of a lot more things to do, yes. I mean, I'm currently extremely excited about prediction markets. I think that is going to be the next big thing. I expect that to become bigger than the securities markets. Because it all has to do with, of course, with the future, right? I mean, investing has to do with the future. Prediction markets is more delineated in front of us as to how to go about these things. At Interactive Brokers, we have our prediction markets and we ask questions. We ask questions from people, you know, questions may have to do with whether the Fed will cut rates or not or when or... Especially, you know,
是的，还有非常非常多事情可以做。我的意思是，我现在对预测市场极其兴奋。我认为那会成为下一个大趋势。我预计它会变得比证券市场还大。因为这一切当然都与未来有关，对吧？我的意思是，投资本来就与未来有关。预测市场把我们应该如何处理这些事情，更清晰地摆在了我们面前。在 Interactive Brokers，我们有自己的预测市场，我们会提出问题。我们向人们提出问题，你知道，这些问题可能涉及 Fed 是否会降息，或者什么时候降息，或者……尤其是，你知道，
(42:00)
big crucial questions like global warming as to at what rate it is going to happen and what are the steps that we can as the human race can do about it and on how and when. And so there are large multiple of questions and we are getting the consensus of people buy the answers, right? And so each question, you can buy a yes or no answer for each question, and the correct answer pays a dollar, and we pay you interest on the current market value of your answers. In other words, you can maybe buy a yes on some question for 20 cents. And the thing moves in your favor at night, it costs 70 cents. You get interest overnight on 70 cents.
像全球变暖这样重大的关键问题，比如它会以什么速度发生，作为人类我们可以采取哪些步骤来应对，以及如何应对、何时应对。因此会有大量问题，而我们通过人们购买答案来获得共识，对吧？所以，对每一个问题，你都可以买入“是”或“否”的答案，正确答案会支付一美元，而且我们会按照你所持答案的当前市场价值向你支付利息。换句话说，你也许可以用 20 美分买入某个问题的“是”。如果这个价格在夜间朝着有利于你的方向移动，变成 70 美分，你就会按 70 美分获得隔夜利息。
(43:04)
So, and if you have, say, if you have bought a million of the questions, of course that's $700,000 and that's a lot of money, right? And often the interest income far exceeds the The ultimate payment on the on the answer. So this is slowly coming together now. And we as we have more and more questions, we are the consensus answers basically are building blocks from which we can construct a model of the future. which is available for anybody to see on the platform, right? And the investments will be Within that, you know, it's much easier to recognize the potential of a company if you can see the future for that company's products or services, right? How that will evolve, right?
所以，如果你比如说买入了一百万份这样的问题，当然那就是 70 万美元，这是一大笔钱，对吧？而且通常情况下，利息收入会远远超过最终答案本身的支付金额。所以这件事现在正在慢慢成形。随着我们提出越来越多的问题，这些共识答案基本上会成为构建模块，我们可以用它们搭建一个关于未来的模型。这个模型可以在平台上让任何人看到，对吧？而投资也会处在这个框架之中。你知道，如果你能够看到某家公司产品或服务的未来，就更容易识别这家公司的潜力，对吧？看到它将如何演变，对吧？
(44:08)
So, this is going to be a very, very big deal and this is going to happen within the next We've been doing this for several decades and this is going to replace basically how we trade today.
所以，这将会是一件非常、非常重大的事情，而且这将在接下来——我们已经做这件事好几十年了，而它基本上会取代我们今天的交易方式。
Emanuel Balarie:
(44:25)
Wow. And what makes it, as you were thinking that, I was actually, again, thinking about my son who's 14, 15. He wants to learn to trade and there's different aspects of it. My takeaway is to tell him, son, look at the prediction markets. Forget about like trading NVIDIA or anything else and try to learn and optimize it.
哇。你刚才这样说的时候，我其实又想到了我 14、15 岁的儿子。他想学习交易，而交易有不同方面。我的理解是，我应该告诉他：儿子，去看预测市场。先别想着交易 NVIDIA 或其他任何东西，而是去学习它、优化它。
Thomas Peterffy:
(44:47)
Yeah, but so the problem is that, you know, there are, so the most popular prediction markets are on Cauchy and unfortunately they are focusing on sports and that is not, I mean, it's not, that's not what we should be thinking about. Sports are a lot of fun but it doesn't tell you anything about the future as to who is going to win a specific game, right? Let's focus on Economic questions and environmental questions and social questions and those are the questions where we can put together the consensus.
是的，但问题在于，你知道，目前最受欢迎的预测市场在 Kalshi 上，而不幸的是，它们专注于体育，这不是——我的意思是，这不是我们应该思考的方向。体育很有趣，但某一场具体比赛谁会赢，并不会告诉你关于未来的任何东西，对吧？我们应该关注经济问题、环境问题和社会问题，这些才是我们能够汇集共识的问题。
Emanuel Balarie:
(45:29)
I think you bring up a good point because that's been my, I mean, my parental concern with prediction markets is there's a huge sector that's going to be focused on almost like this gambling mindset, right? Like, just like who's going to win the basketball game or who's like you mentioned in terms of...
我认为你提出了一个很好的观点，因为这一直是我的——我的意思是，作为父母，我对预测市场的担忧在于，会有一个巨大的板块几乎专注于这种赌博心态，对吧？比如谁会赢篮球比赛，或者就像你刚才提到的那种……
Thomas Peterffy:
(45:47)
Right. No, that's silliness.
对。不，那是愚蠢的东西。
Emanuel Balarie:
(45:50)
And so, but your focus and where you think it's eventually going to go is The fabric of prediction markets that actually help society and actually give real intel of the future of trends in the capital markets or anything else like that.
所以，你关注的方向，以及你认为它最终会走向的方向，是一种真正有助于社会的预测市场结构，并且真正提供关于资本市场趋势未来，或其他类似事情的真实情报。
Thomas Peterffy:
(46:07)
Absolutely, yes.
完全正确，是的。
Emanuel Balarie:
(46:08)
So how is Interactive Brokers, in the same way you've used, how are you differentiating yourself?
那么 Interactive Brokers 是如何做到的？就像你过去一直使用的方式一样，你们如何实现差异化？
Thomas Peterffy:
(46:18)
Well, what differentiates us is the questions.
嗯，让我们区别于其他人的，是问题本身。
Emanuel Balarie:
(46:21)
Yeah.
是的。
Thomas Peterffy:
(46:22)
Right? Because we have... It's not to say that the others do not have some of the questions we have, but that's not their major focus.
对吧？因为我们有……这并不是说其他人没有我们提出的一些问题，但那不是他们的主要重点。
Emanuel Balarie:
(46:34)
Got it.
明白了。
Thomas Peterffy:
(46:35)
So there is a lot of volume now on sports and that, you know, of course, leads everybody to misunderstand what prediction markets are all about.
所以，现在体育相关的交易量很大，而这当然会导致所有人误解预测市场到底是什么。
Emanuel Balarie:
(46:46)
Yeah. Okay, last question, Thomas, and really appreciate it. I know you like to automate things, you know, you have process, that's what keeps you, but is there anything that keeps you up at night? I mean, I use that as a phrase. I'm sure you probably sleep well, but the things that you worry about that you can't control or you're just like, man, I'm really, really worried about this one thing. I don't have answers to it, but it really keeps me up at night.
是的。好的，Thomas，最后一个问题，也真的非常感谢你。我知道你喜欢把事情自动化，你知道，你有流程，那是支撑你的东西。但有没有什么事情会让你夜不能寐？我的意思是，我只是用这个说法。我相信你可能睡得很好，但有没有一些你担心却无法控制的事情，或者你会想，天哪，我真的、真的很担心这一件事。我没有答案，但它确实让我夜不能寐。
Thomas Peterffy:
(47:16)
Well, you know, as I was born and the country I grew up in was a socialist country and I experienced a system in which I grew up where Nobody had their own incentive to do anything because you were not allowed to enjoy the benefit of your own work product. Right? That's basically socialism, where everything that we create Socialism gets thrown into a bucket and then it gets redistributed and eventually fewer and fewer things end up in the bucket and everybody suffers. So I'm worried that the idea of socialism is taking hold all over the world again and It's going to be a very, very bitter lesson. So that's what keeps me up at night.
嗯，你知道，我出生并长大的那个国家是一个社会主义国家，我亲身经历过那样一种制度。在我成长的环境里，没有人有自己的动力去做任何事情，因为你不被允许享受自己劳动成果带来的收益。对吧？这基本上就是社会主义：我们创造出来的一切，在社会主义下都会被扔进一个桶里，然后再重新分配；最终，进入这个桶里的东西会越来越少，所有人都会受苦。所以我担心，社会主义的理念正在全世界再次占据人心，而这将会是一堂非常、非常痛苦的课。这就是让我夜不能寐的事情。
Emanuel Balarie:
(48:20)
Yeah. Yeah. You've experienced it and you've seen kind of the way it starts. And yeah, there is truth to that, I think.
是的。是的。你亲身经历过，也见过它开始时的样子。是的，我认为这里面确实有道理。
Thomas Peterffy:
(48:45)
Right. So I'm sorry you're cutting out. I can't hear your words.
对。抱歉，你的声音断断续续。我听不清你说的话。
Emanuel Balarie:
(48:51)
Yeah. No, I just said I understand and share your concern.
是的。不，我只是说我理解并且也有同样的担忧。
Thomas Peterffy:
(48:54)
Right.
对。
Emanuel Balarie:
(48:55)
As my family grew up in a communist country and you kind of see certain Things pop up that are concerning. But Thomas, thank you so much for joining us. Your wisdom was, I think, going to be very helpful for traders. And I know me personally and even my son, who's starting off. So we're going to have him focus on prediction markets and making sure...
因为我的家人也是在一个共产主义国家长大的，而你会看到某些令人担忧的东西开始出现。但 Thomas，非常感谢你参加我们的节目。我认为你的智慧会对交易员非常有帮助。我个人也是这样认为，甚至对我刚开始接触这些东西的儿子也是如此。所以我们会让他专注于预测市场，并确保……
Thomas Peterffy:
(49:20)
Fantastic. Yeah. That's great, Emanuel. Great to see you. Bye bye.
太好了。是的。很好，Emanuel。很高兴见到你。再见。
Emanuel Balarie:
(49:26)
Bye bye. Thank you for joining us on the FundSeeder Rice podcast where we spotlight exceptional independent traders from around the world and explore the future of active money management. To learn more about FundSeeder, our mission and how we support emerging managers globally, please visit us at fundseeder.com. The information shared in this episode is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer or solicitation to invest in any fund or trading program. Trading futures and other derivatives involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
再见。感谢你收听 FundSeeder Rise 播客。在这里，我们聚焦来自世界各地的杰出独立交易员，并探索主动资金管理的未来。若想了解更多关于 FundSeeder、我们的使命以及我们如何在全球范围内支持新兴管理人的信息，请访问 fundseeder.com。本期节目分享的信息仅用于教育和信息目的，不应被视为投资建议，也不应被视为投资任何基金或交易项目的要约或招揽。交易期货和其他衍生品涉及重大亏损风险，并不适合所有投资者。
(50:04)
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Until next time, stay curious, stay disciplined and keep rising.
过往表现并不必然代表未来结果。下次再见，保持好奇，保持纪律，继续向上。