The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call May 5, 2026 9:30 AM EDT
Company Participants
Douglas Constantine - Director of Investor Relations
Patrick Callahan - President of Personal Lines
Susan Griffith - President, CEO & Director
Andrew Quigg - Chief Strategy Officer
Jonathan Bauer - Chief Investment Officer
John Sauerland - VP & CFO
Conference Call Participants
Jian Huang - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Tracy Benguigui - Wolfe Research, LLC
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Michael Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Robert Cox - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Joshua Shanker - BofA Securities, Research Division
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Charles Peters - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division
Presentation
Douglas Constantine
Director of Investor Relations
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's First Quarter Investor Event. I'm Doug Constantine, Treasury Controller, and I will be moderator for today's event.
早上好，感谢各位今天参加 Progressive 第一季度投资者活动。我是 Doug Constantine，财务控制主管，我将担任今天活动的主持人。
The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and a letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website. Although our quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes scheduled for today's event for introductory comments by our Personal Lines President and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team.
除已在 Form 10-K 年度报告、Form 10-Q 季度报告以及致股东信中提供的信息外，公司不会就业绩作出进一步详细评论；这些文件均已发布在公司网站上。虽然我们的季度投资者关系活动通常会包含针对某一具体业务部分的演示，但今天我们将把预定的 60 分钟用于个人险业务总裁的开场评论，以及与领导团队成员的问答环节。
Introductory comments by our Personal Lines President were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with members of our leadership team.
个人险业务总裁的开场评论此前已录制完成。预先录制的发言结束后，我们将用本次活动预定 60 分钟中的剩余时间，与领导团队成员进行现场问答。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as supplemented by Form 10-Q for the first quarter of 2026, where you'll find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.
和往常一样，本次活动中的讨论可能包含前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，并受到许多风险和不确定性的影响，这些风险和不确定性可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的内容存在重大差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，可参见我们截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日财年的 Form 10-K 年度报告，并由 2026 年第一季度 Form 10-Q 作补充；其中包含影响我们业务的风险因素讨论、与前瞻性陈述相关的安全港声明，以及我们所面临挑战的其他讨论。这些文件可通过我们网站 investors.progressive.com 的投资者关系栏目获取。
To begin today, I am pleased to introduce our Personal Lines President, Pat Callahan, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Pat?
今天首先，我很高兴介绍我们的个人险业务总裁 Pat Callahan，由他为我们作开场评论。Pat？
Patrick Callahan
President of Personal Lines
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. First quarter results were consistent with the last several quarters, extraordinary profitability and growth well above the industry average. When performance is this strong for this long, it can be easy to take it for granted. So I wanted to take a few minutes to reflect on what the Progressive team has delivered.
早上好，感谢各位今天参加。第一季度业绩与过去几个季度保持一致：盈利能力极为出色，增长速度远高于行业平均水平。当业绩在这么长时间里保持如此强劲时，人们很容易把它视为理所当然。因此，我想花几分钟回顾一下 Progressive 团队所交出的成绩。
First, market share. In Personal Auto, we gained 1.9 points of market share in 2025, moving us up to 18.6% share, our second straight year of gaining more than 1.5 points, which no other top 20 company has done going back to at least 1996.
首先是市场份额。在个人汽车保险方面，2025 年我们的市场份额提升了 1.9 个百分点，达到 18.6%；这是我们连续第二年获得超过 1.5 个百分点的份额提升。至少回溯到 1996 年，没有其他前 20 大公司做到过这一点。
To put the last few years in perspective, it took us 84 years to get to 15.2 points of U.S. auto market share and only 2 years to add another 23% more on top of that. It's a remarkable achievement and testament to the value that our offerings bring to consumers seeking high-quality and affordable protection products.
为了更好理解过去几年的表现，我们用了 84 年才取得美国汽车保险市场 15.2 个百分点的份额，却只用了 2 年就在此基础上又增加了 23%。这是一项非凡成就，也证明了我们的产品组合为寻求高质量、价格合理保障产品的消费者带来了价值。
Growth is great to see, but profitable growth is our objective, and it's important to note that we gained that share while delivering Personal Auto combined ratios below 90 in 9 of the last 10 quarters. And that's just Personal Auto.
增长固然令人欣喜，但盈利性增长才是我们的目标。值得注意的是，我们是在过去 10 个季度中有 9 个季度实现个人汽车保险综合成本率低于 90 的同时，取得了上述市场份额增长。而这还只是个人汽车保险。
Preliminary industry results for Commercial Auto suggest the industry combined ratio improved, but once again posted an underwriting loss as it continues to face nuclear verdicts and social inflation. Despite these headwinds, our Commercial Auto results continue to be excellent as we continued our streak of underwriting profitability well in excess of the industry.
商业汽车保险的初步行业结果显示，行业综合成本率有所改善，但由于继续面临巨额判决和社会通胀压力，行业再次出现承保亏损。尽管存在这些逆风，我们的商业汽车保险业绩仍然非常出色，承保盈利能力继续显著高于行业水平。
And in Property, we're building on last year's exceptional profitability while we continue to invest to ensure we have the risk selection and segmentation, geographic distribution and distribution footprint necessary to start increasing availability. As we mentioned on the last couple of calls, we're slowly starting to increase our appetite for property growth on our own paper, which is helping us find more growth in the important Robinsons segment. These results are only possible because of the competitive advantages we built across the organization and because we employ people who are truly among the best in the industry.
在财产保险方面，我们正在延续去年异常出色的盈利能力，同时继续投入，以确保我们具备开始提高可提供性的必要条件，包括风险选择与细分、地域分布以及分销覆盖能力。正如我们在过去几次电话会议中提到的，我们正逐步提高在自有承保主体上实现财产保险增长的意愿，这正在帮助我们在重要的 Robinsons 客户群中获得更多增长。这些结果之所以可能实现，是因为我们在整个组织内建立了竞争优势，也因为我们雇用了真正处于行业最优秀行列的人才。
While we're certainly pleased with these results, we got here because we're always looking ahead. World events continue to create uncertainty in the global macroeconomic environment, and we remain vigilant about how those changes could affect our business. Given our concentration in vehicle lines, higher fuel prices are top of mind. The direct impact of higher fuel prices on Personal Auto frequency is difficult to predict because the timing, duration and magnitude of the price changes matter as does the broader state of the economy when those price changes happen.
虽然我们当然对这些结果感到满意，但我们能够走到这里，是因为我们始终向前看。世界事件继续给全球宏观经济环境带来不确定性，我们仍然警惕这些变化可能如何影响我们的业务。鉴于我们的业务集中在车辆保险条线，燃油价格上升是我们最关注的问题之一。燃油价格上升对个人汽车保险出险频率的直接影响很难预测，因为价格变化发生的时间、持续时间和幅度都很重要，价格变化发生时更广泛的经济状态同样重要。
Historically, we've seen that when fuel is more expensive, people take fewer discretionary trips such as cross-country road trips. And while foregoing those trips can reduce total vehicle miles traveled, those miles do tend to be lower frequency miles, so the effect on loss cost is typically smaller than the overall decline in VMTs.
从历史上看，我们看到，当燃油变得更贵时，人们会减少非必要出行，例如横跨全国的公路旅行。虽然放弃这些出行会减少总车辆行驶里程，但这些里程往往是出险频率较低的里程，因此对损失成本的影响通常小于车辆行驶里程总体下降的幅度。
To date, fuel prices haven't been elevated long enough to conclude how much, if at all, elevated fuel prices may affect our loss costs. On the severity side, higher energy costs generally contribute to broader inflationary pressures. However, it takes time for higher costs to make their way through the supply chain and can be partially offset by lower severity resulting from a lesser mix of higher speed, higher severity highway accidents.
到目前为止，燃油价格处于高位的时间还不够长，尚不足以判断较高燃油价格是否会影响我们的损失成本，以及影响幅度有多大。在损失严重程度方面，较高能源成本通常会推动更广泛的通胀压力。不过，更高成本传导到供应链需要时间，而且可能会被较低的损失严重程度部分抵消，因为高速、严重程度较高的高速公路事故占比会有所下降。
In Commercial Auto, higher fuel prices can immediately pressure trucking margins, adding strain to an industry that has already seen significant change in the post-pandemic environment. As we did in 2021 with higher used vehicle prices and in 2025 with tariffs, we are monitoring the effects of fuel prices closely and incorporating what we observe into pricing as appropriate. While the macro environment could put upward pressure on pricing in the future, today, we're still delivering near-record Personal Auto margins and focused on growing as quickly as possible. The environment remains competitive as it has been for the last 5-plus quarters, so we continue to execute state and product level plans to maximize PIF growth at target profit margins.
在商业汽车保险方面，较高燃油价格可能立即压缩卡车运输行业的利润率，进一步加重这个在后疫情环境下已经经历重大变化的行业的压力。就像我们在 2021 年应对二手车价格上涨、在 2025 年应对关税时所做的那样，我们正在密切监测燃油价格的影响，并在适当情况下把我们观察到的情况纳入定价。虽然宏观环境未来可能对定价形成上行压力，但目前我们仍在实现接近历史纪录的个人汽车保险利润率，并专注于尽可能快速增长。市场环境仍然具有竞争性，过去五个多季度以来一直如此，因此我们继续执行州层面和产品层面的计划，在目标利润率下最大化有效保单数量增长。
On the new business side, in Q1, we increased media spend by 20% versus Q1 2025, making Q1 of '26 the most we've ever spent on media in a quarter. Top of funnel metrics remain robust with marketplace demand still strong. Our price competitiveness is also strong as reflected in higher Personal Auto conversion year-to-date.
在新业务方面，第一季度我们的媒体投放支出较 2025 年第一季度增加了 20%，使 2026 年第一季度成为我们有史以来单季度媒体投放支出最高的季度。漏斗顶部指标依然稳健，市场需求仍然强劲。我们的价格竞争力也很强，这体现在今年以来个人汽车保险转化率更高。
Our product teams continue to execute their business plans with some states taking modest rate decreases when appropriate to capture in-market shoppers. On renewals, we're actively retaining customers through policy reviews as we've noted over the last couple of quarters. While possibly temporary, we were also pleased to see a lift in the Florida trailing 3 policy life expectancy during the quarter as customers received their premium credits.
我们的产品团队继续执行其业务计划，在适当情况下，一些州会采取小幅降费，以争取正在市场中比价购买的消费者。在续保方面，正如我们在过去几个季度所指出的，我们正通过保单审查积极留住客户。虽然这可能是暂时性的，但我们也很高兴看到，随着客户收到保费抵免，佛罗里达州过去三期保单预期寿命在本季度有所提升。
At the countrywide level, mix shifts that arose because of a more aggressive new business posture continue to put downward pressure on PLE, although the year-over-year influence of those changes is abating.
在全国层面，由于更积极的新业务姿态所带来的业务组合变化，仍在对保单预期寿命形成下行压力，不过这些变化的同比影响正在减弱。
In Commercial Lines, we're also seeing a competitive environment, and we are looking to all avenues to stimulate growth. We are increasing media spend and are looking to reduce rates in some states and business segments where we can bring in business at or below our profit targets. With targeted rate decreases and continued advancements in rolling out our next-generation product models across our core Commercial Auto, medium fleet and small business lines, we are well positioned for growth.
在商业险条线，我们同样看到竞争性环境，并且正在寻找所有途径来刺激增长。我们正在增加媒体投放支出，并考虑在一些州和业务细分市场降低费率，前提是我们能够以达到或优于利润目标的水平引入业务。随着有针对性的降费，以及我们在核心商业汽车保险、中型车队和小企业条线持续推进下一代产品模型的部署，我们已经为增长做好了充分准备。
In closing, our business is in a very strong position. The macroeconomic environment will continue to evolve, but we've proven we thrive during periods of disruption as we're among the best at identifying and quickly adapting to uncertainty and changing business conditions.
最后，我们的业务处于非常强劲的位置。宏观经济环境将继续演变，但我们已经证明，我们能够在扰动时期表现出色，因为我们是最擅长识别不确定性并快速适应不确定性和商业条件变化的公司之一。
As we close in on the important milestone of becoming the #1 writer of U.S. Personal Auto, we're not taking our foot off the gas. We'll continue investing in the business and leveraging our scale, advanced analytics and segmentation leadership as we make progress towards our vision of becoming consumers, agents and business owners #1 destination for insurance and other financial needs.
随着我们接近成为美国个人汽车保险第一大承保商这一重要里程碑，我们不会放慢脚步。我们将继续投资业务，并利用我们的规模、先进分析能力和细分定价领导地位，朝着我们的愿景继续前进：成为消费者、代理人和企业主在保险及其他金融需求方面的首选目的地。
Thank you again for joining us this morning. We'll now take your questions.
再次感谢各位今天上午参加。现在我们开始回答各位的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
Douglas Constantine
Director of Investor Relations
This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available to answer questions. [Operator Instructions] And I'll take our first question.
今天活动中预先录制的部分到此结束。现在，我们的管理团队成员将回答问题。[接线员说明] 我来接第一个问题。
Operator
Your first question comes from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley.
第一个问题来自 Morgan Stanley 的 Bob Huang。
Jian Huang
Morgan Stanley, Research Division
I want to maybe just unpack some of the prepared remarks commentary a little bit. So regarding the Personal Auto industry, right, the industry seems to be excessively profitable. And in your shareholder letter, you kind of mentioned about the competitive environment being intense. And just can you maybe help us think about just where do you see all this end for the Personal Line or Personal Auto rather going forward as well as for Progressive, both for the industry and for Progressive? Are we in a prolonged soft market just given the profitability environment? Are we -- should we think about the industry being more competitive and/or maybe even profitability declining in 2027? Can you maybe just help us think about the broader environment where Progressive is situated in, so to speak?
我想稍微展开一下预先准备发言中的一些评论。关于个人汽车保险行业，行业看起来盈利过高。你们在致股东信中也提到竞争环境很激烈。能否帮助我们思考一下，从个人险条线，或者更准确地说个人汽车保险未来的发展来看，以及从 Progressive 自身来看，无论是行业还是 Progressive，这一切最终会走向哪里？考虑到当前盈利环境，我们是否处于一个持续较长时间的软市场？我们是否应该认为行业会变得更具竞争性，甚至盈利能力可能在 2027 年下降？能否帮助我们理解 Progressive 所处的更广泛环境？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I'll try to unpack your question with a bunch of different answers. We don't know how long the soft market will prevail, but we have definitely seen a lot more competition because everyone has great margins. And we haven't seen the margins in the industry like we have in '25 and into '26. So that's going to be competitive for all of us, which is great for consumers. So we'll continue to make sure that we reach our target profit margins. Other companies have different targets and run their businesses differently. But we think this is a really great opportunity to continue on our growth trajectory and continue to get more and more policyholders to achieve what Pat has said and not just to be #1 in private passenger auto, but to be the #1 destination. And that's where we'll get and focus on more bundles.
是的。我会尝试用几个不同角度来拆解你的问题。我们不知道软市场会持续多久，但我们确实已经看到竞争明显增加，因为每家公司都有很好的利润率。行业在 2025 年以及进入 2026 年以来的利润率，是我们此前没有看到过的。因此，对我们所有公司来说，这都会是一个竞争性环境，而这对消费者来说是好事。所以我们会继续确保达到我们的目标利润率。其他公司有不同的目标，也以不同方式经营业务。但我们认为，这是一个非常好的机会，可以继续推进我们的增长轨迹，继续获得越来越多的保单持有人，实现 Pat 所说的目标：不仅要成为私人乘用车保险第一，还要成为第一目的地。而我们会朝这个方向前进，并且更专注于更多组合销售。
But it's probably worth saying that after our best year, which we would say it was 2024. In 2025, the private passenger auto market grew written premium about $11.8 billion. $8.9 billion of that was us. If you take just the top 10 carriers, that combined growth in 2025 was $10.4 billion. So we were 86% of that growth.
但也许值得一提的是，在我们认为最好的年份，也就是 2024 年之后，2025 年私人乘用车保险市场的签单保费增长约 118 亿美元。其中 89 亿美元来自我们。如果只看前十大保险公司，它们在 2025 年的合计增长为 104 亿美元。因此，我们贡献了其中 86% 的增长。
And in quarter 1, '26, we grew PIFs nearly $1 billion -- $1 million, sorry, Auto PIFs that were 11% of that. So my point is that our focus -- it's hard to say what the industry is going to do, but our focus will be to continue to grow as fast as we can at or below 96%.
在 2026 年第一季度，我们的有效保单数量增长了近 10 亿——抱歉，是 100 万份汽车保险有效保单，其中 11% 来自……所以我的重点是，我们的关注点——行业会怎么走很难说，但我们的关注点会是继续在 96% 或以下的综合成本率水平上尽可能快地增长。
Will margins compress? Possibly. Because we do look at growth in terms of policies. And we want to make sure we continue to have more and more policies when we get more customers, we gather more data. When we gather more data, we understand segmentation and risk to rate better, and then we can put that into our next product model. So it's a very nice flywheel that we've used for a long time. What the industry does, I can't foreshadow. But right now, it's competitive. That's good for consumers, and we're excited about what we believe can be our future.
利润率会压缩吗？有可能。因为我们确实是从保单数量的角度看增长。我们希望确保继续拥有越来越多的保单；当我们获得更多客户时，就能收集更多数据。当我们收集更多数据时，就能更好理解细分和风险定价之间的关系，然后把这些内容纳入我们的下一代产品模型。因此，这是一个非常好的飞轮，我们已经使用了很长时间。行业会怎么做，我无法预判。但现在环境确实有竞争性。这对消费者有利，而我们对自己认为可能实现的未来感到兴奋。
Jian Huang
Morgan Stanley, Research Division
It sounds like from a growth perspective, somebody is hogging all the fun, maybe other people would ask you to share. But maybe that aside, if we look at Personal Auto severity, it is more of a follow-up, right? You gave some commentary around severity and frequency. While higher medical cost, attorney representation still were the callouts in the 10-Q, it does feel like severity improved notably. In fact, if we look at it, aside from 2024, severity on collision hasn't been this good in 5 years. Can you maybe help us get a better handle on severity trends, specifically collision? Why is it so good, for lack of a better word? Is this durable as you're growing further and then talking about the 96, so to speak?
听起来从增长角度看，有人把所有乐趣都占了，也许其他人会要求你们分享一下。不过暂且不谈这一点，如果看个人汽车保险的损失严重程度，这更像是一个追问。你们对损失严重程度和出险频率都作了一些评论。虽然更高的医疗成本、律师代理仍然是 Form 10-Q 中指出的重点问题，但感觉损失严重程度明显改善。事实上，如果我们看碰撞险，除了 2024 年以外，碰撞险的损失严重程度已经 5 年没有这么好了。能否帮助我们更好理解损失严重程度趋势，尤其是碰撞险？说得直白一点，为什么表现这么好？随着你们进一步增长，并谈到 96% 综合成本率，这种情况是否可持续？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I'm going to let Andrew Quigg answer that. But you're correct. Severity is about 3% overall. Frequency was flat. And so we feel good about those trends. A lot of things can change, like you said, with bodily injury, specials in general. So I'll have Andrew give a little bit more color to that.
是的。我会让 Andrew Quigg 来回答这个问题。但你说得对。整体损失严重程度大约为 3%。出险频率持平。因此，我们对这些趋势感觉良好。很多事情都可能发生变化，正如你所说，人身伤害，以及总体上的特殊项目，都可能变化。所以我请 Andrew 再多补充一些细节。
Andrew Quigg
Chief Strategy Officer
Yes. I'll start on the frequency side. I know you're asking about severity, but of course, they're linked. We see frequency moderating a little bit. The trailing 12 months has been more negative. And in this quarter, we are more flat for frequency. We had a shift to preferred over the past year. And as we open up underwriting, we're seeing frequency go back to kind of normal. On the severity side, you mentioned BI, yes. As we mentioned in the Q, large losses and attorney rep mix have impacted BI severity.
是的。我先从出险频率说起。我知道你问的是损失严重程度，但两者当然是相关的。我们看到出险频率有所缓和。过去 12 个月的趋势更偏负面，而本季度出险频率基本持平。过去一年，我们的业务组合向优选客户转移。随着我们放开承保，我们看到出险频率正在回到比较正常的水平。在损失严重程度方面，你提到了人身伤害，是的。正如我们在 Form 10-Q 中提到的，大额损失以及律师代理案件占比影响了人身伤害的损失严重程度。
For PD and collision, we do see higher parts prices. And so that is impacting. Now we have some offsetting cost of labor and things like that are not accelerating as fast as parts prices. Going forward for collision severity, it's hard to know. Our crystal ball is cloudy. Certainly, we stay vigilant on what's happening with tariffs, what might happen with the conflict in Iran. All those might impact severity going forward. But we've been able to find ways to offset severity increases that we see through parts prices by how we manage the claims process. And so it's hard to say on collision going forward, but we feel good about the trends we're seeing today.
在财产损害责任险和碰撞险方面，我们确实看到零部件价格上涨，因此这正在产生影响。不过，我们也有一些抵消因素，比如人工成本等项目的上涨速度没有零部件价格那么快。展望未来的碰撞险损失严重程度，很难判断。我们的水晶球并不清晰。当然，我们会继续警惕关税的变化、Iran 冲突可能带来的影响。所有这些都可能影响未来的损失严重程度。但通过管理理赔流程，我们已经能够找到一些方法，抵消零部件价格上涨所带来的损失严重程度上升。因此，未来碰撞险会怎样很难说，但我们对今天看到的趋势感觉良好。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Wolfe Research.
下一个问题来自 Wolfe Research 的 Tracy Benguigui。
Tracy Benguigui
Wolfe Research, LLC
On the topic of AI disintermediation on brokers, I always felt like if any carrier can bypass brokers on the Commercial Line side. But given that you guys made so much traction on direct Personal Lines over the years, I see that your Commercial Line business, 90% of that is distributed through independent agents. I'm wondering why not more on the direct side? Could that piece grow?
关于人工智能对经纪人的去中介化这个话题，我一直觉得，如果有任何保险公司能够在商业险条线绕过经纪人，那可能就是你们。但考虑到你们多年来在个人险直销方面取得了这么多进展，我看到你们的商业险业务中 90% 是通过独立代理人分销的。我想知道，为什么直销占比没有更高？这一部分能否增长？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes, we definitely think it can grow, Tracy, and that's why we've been investing a lot in that area. I think just like when we went to Auto on the Internet, it takes a while, especially in the Commercial Lines product because they're much more complicated. So think if I'm a small business owner, I want to make sure I'm covered with all the right things and sometimes I want to sit knee-to-knee with an agent. We do think that more and more consumers, whether they're Personal Auto or Commercial, will want to do business directly with companies. And that's really what we've been building over the last few years. And so we do feel that we will continue to grow in both channels in our Commercial Lines business. Pat talked about it a little bit in the opening comments that we're really well positioned for growth based on our margins and our segmentation.
是的，Tracy，我们确实认为它可以增长，这也是我们在这个领域大量投资的原因。我认为这就像当初我们把汽车保险搬到互联网上一样，需要时间，尤其是在商业险产品上，因为它们复杂得多。可以想象，如果我是一个小企业主，我想确保自己在所有正确的方面都获得保障，有时我会希望和代理人面对面坐下来谈。我们确实认为，越来越多消费者，无论是个人汽车保险客户还是商业险客户，都会希望直接与保险公司做生意。而这正是我们过去几年一直在建设的能力。因此，我们确实认为，在商业险业务中，我们会继续在两个渠道都实现增长。Pat 在开场评论中也稍微谈到了这一点，基于我们的利润率和细分能力，我们已经为增长处于非常有利的位置。
Tracy Benguigui
Wolfe Research, LLC
Okay. Great. And one of your larger competitors is getting into the independent agency channel for Personal Auto. And I noticed that AI is becoming a larger piece of the overall distribution pie. Any update on the competitive landscape on the AI side of personal insurance?
好的。很好。你们的一家较大竞争对手正在进入个人汽车保险的独立代理渠道。我也注意到，人工智能正在成为整体分销版图中更大的一部分。关于个人保险中人工智能方面的竞争格局，有没有什么更新？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
It's hard to say how -- with AI, how things are competitive because all of us, I think, are investing and investing differently. And what I would say to have any competition getting into really any channel, we think that's great because I think it puts more pressure on all of us to be better for consumers and to continue to make sure, like I talked about, having more data, segmenting better, making sure our brand is out there. So while we just think competition is good.
很难说在人工智能方面，竞争具体会如何展开，因为我认为我们所有公司都在投资，而且投资方式各不相同。至于任何竞争对手进入任何渠道，我想说的是，我们认为这很好，因为这会给我们所有公司带来更大压力，促使我们为消费者做得更好，并继续确保，就像我刚才谈到的，拥有更多数据、更好地进行细分，并确保我们的品牌被消费者看到。所以我们认为竞争是好事。
AI, I think, will come in different forms. I think initially, whether it's AI that we -- was predictive in the past or generative now, I think we'll start with helping to make sure that all of us are more efficient and can get tasks out of the work that will ultimately lead to more competitive prices. And so that really has been our focus now. But we've -- like I said in the last call, from an innovation perspective, we've been working on some form, whether it's a chatbot or predictive AI and now Gen AI for a long, long time. And I think others are starting to invest as well.
我认为，人工智能会以不同形式出现。我认为在初期，无论是过去那种预测式人工智能，还是现在的生成式人工智能，都会先从帮助我们所有公司提高效率、把一些任务从工作流程中剥离出来开始，而这最终会带来更有竞争力的价格。因此，这确实是我们目前的重点。不过，正如我在上次电话会议中所说，从创新角度看，我们已经在某种形式的人工智能上工作了很长很长时间，无论是聊天机器人、预测式人工智能，还是现在的生成式人工智能。我认为其他公司也正在开始投资。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.
下一个问题来自 Wells Fargo 的 Elyse Greenspan。
Elyse Greenspan
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
My first question, I wanted to ask on written premium per policy. It continued, right, to go down in agency, kind of flat in direct. I was just hoping to get a little bit more color on just like the drivers there and how you would expect, especially, right, as there is less rate through the system, how you would expect the written premium per policy to trend from here?
我的第一个问题想问每张保单签单保费。它在代理渠道继续下降，在直销渠道大致持平。我只是希望能更多了解背后的驱动因素，以及你们如何预期这一指标未来的走势，尤其是在整个系统中费率提升越来越少的情况下，你们预计每张保单签单保费接下来会如何变化？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I mean, I think it will be dependent on the pricing actions that we take in order to grow. Right now, it's been down about 1 in private passenger Auto, 1%. We'll continue to watch that. And like we've said in the past, our real measure of growth for long term is policies in force. And so we want to make sure we can do that. And with that, we're going to make sure that we do a couple of things, have the right rates in the system, but also in the last year or so, we've opened up our aperture. So you're going to look at different premium per type of customer. So we were pretty close when we were trying to get rate in the system. Our mix has changed. And so with that mix change, I think that you might see some changes. I don't think there's going to be anything dramatic, but we're going to -- like we do, we're going to go state-by-state, channel-by-channel to make sure that we're priced adequately in order to achieve our goal of growing as fast as we can.
是的。我的意思是，我认为这将取决于我们为了实现增长而采取的定价行动。目前，私人乘用车保险大约下降了 1，也就是 1%。我们会继续观察。正如我们过去所说，从长期来看，我们真正衡量增长的指标是有效保单数量。因此，我们要确保能够做到这一点。与此同时，我们会确保做好几件事：系统中要有正确的费率；另外，在过去一年左右，我们也扩大了承保视野。所以你会看到不同类型客户的每张保单保费不同。当我们此前努力把费率提入系统时，业务组合比较集中。现在我们的业务组合发生了变化。因此，随着这种组合变化，我认为你可能会看到一些变化。我不认为会有什么剧烈变化，但我们会像一直以来那样，逐州、逐渠道检查，确保定价充足，以实现我们尽可能快速增长的目标。
Elyse Greenspan
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
And then my second question is on policies in force, right? Historically, right, PIF and just shopping has been more focused, right, during earlier months in a year. Obviously, over the last 2 years, right, there's just been rate taking in the market and there's been differing trends. How do you think just policies in force relative to seasonal factors and just overall growth views will trend over the balance of the year with kind of the seasonality factor in mind?
我的第二个问题是关于有效保单数量。从历史上看，有效保单数量以及消费者比价购物更多集中在一年中较早的月份。显然，过去两年市场一直在提价，趋势也有所不同。在考虑季节性因素的情况下，你们如何看待今年剩余时间有效保单数量相对于季节性因素以及整体增长预期的走势？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I might have Pat add in on that. But what I would say is, I think, with just so much competition because it's been a long time where the industry has been, has had the profit margins that we've had. And so things have shifted a little bit, and there's a lot of shopping. We've talked a lot about whether it's our customers even shopping, reshopping with us or us doing policy reviews. I think that's happening sort of across the industry. So I can foresee that it could continue to happen. We really can't tell. But that's one of the reasons why we wanted to leverage our ability with our brand and our marketing engine to increase our media spend to continue that growth. Do you want to add anything, Pat?
是的。这个问题我可能会请 Pat 补充。但我想说的是，我认为，由于竞争非常激烈，而行业已经很久没有像现在这样拥有我们所看到的利润率，所以情况发生了一些变化，也出现了大量比价购物。我们已经多次谈到，无论是我们的客户自己比价、重新和我们比价，还是我们进行保单审查。我认为这在整个行业中都在发生。因此，我可以预见这种情况可能会继续发生。我们确实无法确定。但这也是我们希望利用自身品牌和营销引擎能力、增加媒体投放支出以继续推动增长的原因之一。Pat，你想补充什么吗？
Patrick Callahan
President of Personal Lines
Yes, sure. You're right. We've seen kind of unprecedented shopping, and we don't expect to see it slow down. So historically, there has been a seasonal pop in Q1 and then the echo in Q3 as policies renew. And we're seeing kind of continued strong shopping as inflation and affordability for consumers remains tough and insurance is a higher percentage of their disposable or household income. So we intend to continue to invest while it remains efficient. And we're seeing signs like older shoppers, longer tenured shoppers coming into market in ways that we previously had not seen.
是的，当然。你说得对。我们看到某种前所未有的比价购物，而且我们并不预期它会放缓。因此，从历史上看，第一季度会出现季节性增长，然后在第三季度随着保单续保出现回声效应。现在我们看到，由于通胀和消费者负担能力仍然承压，而且保险在其可支配收入或家庭收入中的占比更高，比价购物持续强劲。因此，只要投资仍然有效率，我们就打算继续投资。我们也看到一些迹象，比如年龄更大的比价者、持有保单时间更长的比价者正在进入市场，而这是我们此前没有看到过的方式。
And when some of these long-tenured shoppers shop, they may not have shopped for 10 years previously. Once they do, they realize that the world has changed, and it's relatively easy with high information transparency and low switching costs to change auto insurance, in particular, providers.
当这些长期客户中的一些人开始比价时，他们此前可能已经 10 年没有比过价。一旦他们开始比价，就会意识到世界已经变了。在信息透明度较高、转换成本较低的环境下，更换汽车保险，尤其是更换保险公司，相对容易。
And we think that's a good thing. If people can leverage the competitive nature of the voluntary market and save themselves, money on quality coverage, that's good for them. And as Tricia mentioned, being a value provider who uses lots of data to ensure we have the best matching of rate to risk, we think we win when more people shop and find that Progressive offers a competitive price for the value or coverage they're seeking.
我们认为这是一件好事。如果人们能够利用自愿市场的竞争性，在获得高质量保障的同时为自己省钱，这对他们是好事。正如 Tricia 提到的，作为一家价值提供者，我们使用大量数据来确保费率与风险之间实现最佳匹配；当更多人进行比价，并发现 Progressive 能够为他们所寻求的价值或保障提供有竞争力的价格时，我们认为自己会赢。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.
下一个问题来自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Mike Zaremski。
Michael Zaremski
BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
First question is on productivity. This past winter, Tricia, you spoke to productivity gains that I think I estimate would allow Progressive to do maybe up to 10% more with the same level of employees. Maybe you can elaborate on what specific technologies are driving those efficiency gains because I'd love to try to better decipher whether some of those benefits will endure more so to Progressive versus peers as well?
第一个问题是关于生产率。今年冬天，Tricia，你谈到过生产率提升，我估计这可能让 Progressive 在员工人数不变的情况下多做最多约 10% 的工作。能否详细说明一下，具体是哪些技术在推动这些效率提升？因为我想更好地判断，相比同行，其中一些收益是否会更多地持续留在 Progressive 身上。
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I won't go into all the specifics that we're using, but we do have several generative AI solutions in production, and we believe they're delivering meaningful benefits that we think will be long term, and that's across personalized experiences for consumers, agents, business owners. And we're really, I think, just at the tip of that. And it's really a continuation of how we've invested in technology over the years, whether it's from digital ability in claims or actually in CRM as well. And we're just trying to kind of be where consumers need us to be. And that's one of our strategic pillars to have broad coverage and be where our customers want to shop, want to be serviced. So we believe -- and we just finished our 3-year strategic plan and presented it to our Board of Directors.
是的。我不会逐一说明我们正在使用的所有具体技术，但我们确实已经有几个生成式人工智能解决方案投入生产环境，并且我们相信它们正在带来有意义的收益，而且我们认为这些收益将是长期的，覆盖消费者、代理人和企业主的个性化体验。我认为，我们实际上才刚刚触及这一领域的表层。这也确实是我们多年来投资技术的延续，无论是在理赔中的数字化能力，还是在客户关系管理方面。我们只是努力出现在消费者需要我们的地方。这也是我们的战略支柱之一：拥有广泛覆盖，并出现在客户希望购买、希望获得服务的地方。因此我们相信——而且我们刚刚完成了三年战略规划，并向董事会作了汇报。
We believe that we can continue to reduce non-acquisition expense ratio over the foreseeable future. We do a 3-year plan because we think it's really important to -- even with the margins we have to continue to have pressure on us to have the most competitive price, but also the right rate to risk. So we believe that we can continue to push -- put pressure on expenses through technology plus changes, yes.
我们相信，在可预见的未来，我们可以继续降低非获客费用率。我们制定三年规划，是因为我们认为这非常重要——即使在当前利润率下，我们也必须继续给自己施压，以提供最具竞争力的价格，同时确保费率与风险相匹配。所以，是的，我们相信可以继续通过技术以及其他改变来推动、压低费用。
Michael Zaremski
BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Okay. That's helpful. And just switching gears lastly to a question on capital management. Are you willing to kind of maybe elaborate more on why Progressive chose a very large special dividend earlier this year versus directing more of those excess funds towards a buyback? I don't know if you'll be willing to kind of share some of the math equation or thoughts that drove that allocation decision.
好的，这很有帮助。最后换个话题，问一个关于资本管理的问题。你们是否愿意进一步说明，为什么 Progressive 今年早些时候选择发放一笔非常大的特别股息，而不是将更多超额资金用于股票回购？我不知道你们是否愿意分享一些推动这一资本配置决策的计算逻辑或思考。
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I'll have Jon Bauer from Progressive Capital Management talk about that. But as you know, we've got lots of uses for capital. We had a lot of capital last year because of our growth. I'll just start with that. And we need a lot when there's high growth in terms of our regulatory needs and our contingency capital. And then we have to make choices, and we work very closely with our investment and capital team with the Board of Directors to determine how much we buy back, which we did buy back a fair amount in the first quarter this year and what we do with dividends. Ultimately, they make the decision. But maybe I'll just have Jon Bauer go over a little bit more about our process around how we think about overall capital management. And Jon, maybe even just talk about the debt raise we just did.
是的。我会请 Progressive Capital Management 的 Jon Bauer 来谈这个问题。但正如你所知道的，我们有很多资本用途。去年由于我们的增长，我们拥有大量资本。我先从这一点说起。在高速增长时，考虑到监管要求和应急资本，我们需要大量资本。然后我们必须作出选择，我们会和投资及资本团队、董事会密切合作，决定回购多少股份——今年第一季度我们确实回购了相当数量的股票——以及如何处理股息。最终，是他们作出决定。但也许我会请 Jon Bauer 更多介绍一下我们思考整体资本管理的流程。Jon，也许你甚至可以谈谈我们刚刚完成的债务融资。
Jonathan Bauer
Chief Investment Officer
Yes. Thanks so much for the question. I would start by pointing everybody back to our first quarter presentation where we talk through how we think about capital. And at a high level, we start with, can we reinvest that capital that we have back into the business for much of the last few years, what Pat was talking about and others. Our company was growing so fast, we needed much of the capital we were generating to reinvest in our business to fund that growth.
是的。非常感谢这个问题。我首先想请大家回到我们第一季度的演示材料，其中我们讨论了如何看待资本。从高层次看，我们首先考虑的是，能否把我们拥有的资本重新投入业务。在过去几年中的大部分时间里，正如 Pat 和其他人谈到的，我们公司增长非常快，因此我们需要把所产生资本中的很大一部分重新投入业务，以支持这种增长。
As we've seen over the last 18 to 24 months, the business has been producing prodigious amounts of capital even as we've continued that growth. And so as we think about that, what to do with that excess capital after we get through the initial reinvest in the business, we think about a few different things. So one is share repurchases. Another is potential corporate development opportunities and the other is investment risk. And so we look across those 3 lenses and say, do we see valuable opportunities there?
正如过去 18 到 24 个月我们看到的那样，即使我们继续保持增长，业务也一直在产生巨额资本。因此，当我们思考在完成初步业务再投资之后如何处理这些超额资本时，我们会考虑几个不同方面。一个是股票回购。另一个是潜在的公司发展机会。还有一个是投资风险。因此，我们会从这三个视角审视，并判断其中是否存在有价值的机会。
When we think about our share repurchase, we specifically look at a few different measures, the same that we see in many of your reports, things such as price to earnings, price to book, and then we have our own internal model. And we look to see do we believe our shares are trading cheap to our view of fair value. And then we look to scale the share repurchase plan that we have through 10b5-1s on a going-forward basis based on how much of a discount we see that the shares are trading to versus what our view of fair value is.
当我们思考股票回购时，我们会具体看几个不同指标，也就是我们在你们许多报告中看到的那些指标，比如市盈率、市净率，然后我们也有自己的内部模型。我们会判断，相对于我们对公允价值的看法，我们的股票交易价格是否便宜。之后，我们会基于股票交易价格相对于我们所认定公允价值的折价幅度，通过 10b5-1 计划，在未来相应调整股票回购计划的规模。
And so you should expect that we will continue to scale that repurchase based on how much excess capital we have, what are the other opportunities we see for that capital and where we see the valuation of our shares trading in the market versus our view of fair value. And if after the share repurchase, the corporate development and the investment risk decisions, we still have what we deem to be excess capital versus what we need for our business, then we will look to return that as we did with our variable dividend at the end of last year.
因此，你们应该预期，我们会继续根据几个因素来调整回购规模：我们拥有多少超额资本、我们看到这些资本还有哪些其他机会，以及我们股票在市场上的估值相对于我们所认定公允价值的位置。如果在股票回购、公司发展和投资风险决策之后，相对于业务所需资本，我们仍然拥有被我们认定为超额资本的部分，那么我们就会考虑把它返还给股东，就像去年年底通过可变股息所做的那样。
I will point out with last year, we had something besides just our internal cash flow generation, which was the switch to several of our subsidiaries, 3.5:1 premiums to surplus. So that afforded us to have an even greater amount of excess capital that we were able to move up to our non-insurance subsidiary that allowed for both the increase that we saw in our share repurchases in 2025 as well as the large variable dividend that you talked about.
我要指出，去年除了内部现金流生成之外，我们还有另一个因素，即几家子公司的保费与盈余比率切换到 3.5:1。因此，这让我们拥有了更大规模的超额资本，可以上移到我们的非保险子公司，也使我们既能够在 2025 年增加股票回购，也能够发放你提到的大额可变股息。
I'll briefly just also mention we raised some money in the corporate debt markets this year. We thought that it was a good time to issue. We obviously have $1 billion of debt maturities coming in 2027. We thought that valuations were attractive in the market. And we saw, as many of you have seen that our financial leverage, which normally has ranged between 20% and 30%. We have our 30% limit, has fallen pretty significantly below 20%. And so with the issuance that we did in the capital markets, our financial leverage at the end of the quarter moved up over 20% to a more efficient level.
我也简要提一下，我们今年在公司债市场筹集了一些资金。我们认为这是一个不错的发行时机。显然，我们在 2027 年有 10 亿美元债务到期。我们认为市场估值具有吸引力。而且我们看到，正如你们很多人也看到的，我们的财务杠杆通常在 20% 到 30% 之间。我们的上限是 30%，但此前已经显著降到 20% 以下。因此，通过我们在资本市场完成的发行，截至季度末，我们的财务杠杆回升到 20% 以上，达到一个更有效率的水平。
But I would, again, just circling back to where I started, point everyone to that first quarter presentation and our focus on driving strong returns for our shareholders. And the way we think about doing that is with that strong return on equity that Progressive has driven over its history, and that means being incredibly efficient with our capital, both the total amount of capital that we are holding as well as the split of that capital between debt and equity.
但我还是想再次回到开头，提醒大家看第一季度演示材料，以及我们对为股东创造强劲回报的专注。我们思考如何做到这一点的方式，是依靠 Progressive 历史上一直实现的强劲股本回报率；这意味着我们必须极其高效地使用资本，包括我们持有的资本总量，以及资本在债务和股权之间的分配。
Let me know if that answers your question.
请告诉我这是否回答了你的问题。
Michael Zaremski
BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Yes, that's helpful. So just on need to check, should we be earmarking some of that debt capital towards buybacks potentially? Or am I misinterpreting?
是的，这很有帮助。所以我只是想确认一下，我们是否应该把部分债务资本潜在地指定用于回购？还是我理解错了？
Jonathan Bauer
Chief Investment Officer
Yes. We don't separate out that debt raise is for share repurchases or for something else. How I would think about it is, Progressive is in an incredibly strong capital position even after the dividend, the share repurchases that we've done and even pre that debt raise. Even after that debt raise, we feel like we're even in a stronger capital position. We have the opportunity to invest that capital in all of the elements that I talked about, share repurchase being one of them. And we will continue to look at what the split is between our view of fair value and where our shares are trading. And if we think that we should be repurchasing a greater amount of shares, we will. But for us, it's very important to determine how big of a discount to fair value our shares are trading at.
是的。我们不会把这次债务融资单独划分为用于股票回购或用于其他事项。我会这样理解：即使在支付股息、完成我们已经进行的股票回购之后，甚至在这次债务融资之前，Progressive 的资本状况也极其强劲。在完成这次债务融资之后，我们觉得资本状况甚至更加强劲。我们有机会把这些资本投入我刚才提到的所有方面，股票回购是其中之一。我们会继续观察我们对公允价值的看法与股票交易价格之间的差距。如果我们认为应该回购更多股票，我们会这样做。但对我们来说，非常重要的是判断我们的股票相对于公允价值到底有多大的折价。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.
下一个问题来自 Goldman Sachs 的 Rob Cox。
Robert Cox
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Maybe I'll just follow up on the capital management discussion. Progressive has disclosed that the firm can get to a maximum 3.5x premium to surplus on a statutory basis. From the outside, it seems like maybe you're not comfortable going that high. How should we think about your criteria for premium to surplus on a GAAP basis? And should we expect that to trend upwards towards like the 3x range?
也许我就资本管理讨论追问一下。Progressive 已经披露，公司在法定会计口径下可以达到最高 3.5 倍的保费对盈余比率。从外部看，你们似乎可能并不愿意达到那么高。我们应该如何理解你们在 GAAP 口径下对保费对盈余比率的标准？我们是否应该预期该比率向上接近 3 倍左右？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Jon, do you want to take that? And if John Sauerland, either one of you, because you were both involved in those conversations?
Jon，你想回答这个问题吗？或者 John Sauerland，你们两位都可以回答，因为你们都参与了这些讨论。
Jonathan Bauer
Chief Investment Officer
Sure. I will start, and then, John, I'm happy for you to add on to anything there. So we got the approval at several of our subsidiaries to move to 3.5:1 from the 3:1. It was not across all of our insurance subsidiaries, but a significant amount of them. So we -- this approval only came in 2025. So we moved the capital up that we could within the course of 2025 to move up that premiums to surplus to as efficient as we could be in 2025.
当然。我先回答，然后 John，如果你愿意，可以补充。我们在几家子公司获得了批准，可以把保费对盈余比率从 3:1 提高到 3.5:1。这并不是覆盖我们所有保险子公司，但涉及相当大一部分。因此，这项批准是在 2025 年才获得的。所以我们在 2025 年期间尽可能上移资本，使保费对盈余比率在 2025 年达到我们能够实现的最高效率水平。
We will continue to look in 2026 and 2027 to optimize that premiums to surplus at our operating subsidiaries because we feel a huge amount of confidence in the underwriting business that Pat talked about that we are holding more capital there than we need for the risk that we have. So we will continue to optimize that over time.
我们会在 2026 年和 2027 年继续寻找机会，优化运营子公司的保费对盈余比率，因为我们对 Pat 所谈到的承保业务非常有信心，认为在这些业务中，我们持有的资本超过了所承担风险所需的资本。因此，我们会随着时间继续优化这一点。
Our overall premiums to surplus, including our non-insurance subsidiaries will include the capital that we're holding for other things that we just talked about, share repurchases, corporate development, investment risk, contingent capital and things like that. That capital will continue to be optimized, but we will also look to hold some of that capital for future opportunities. So the goal is to optimize the capital at those insurance subsidiaries as much as we can over time. And then the capital that we hold at our non-insurance subsidiary will go up and down based on opportunities we see to use that capital and if we are looking to hold back certain capital for future opportunities.
我们的整体保费对盈余比率，如果包括非保险子公司，就会包含我们为刚才谈到的其他事项所持有的资本，例如股票回购、公司发展、投资风险、应急资本等。这部分资本会继续被优化，但我们也会考虑保留其中一部分，以应对未来机会。因此，目标是随着时间尽可能优化这些保险子公司的资本。然后，我们在非保险子公司持有的资本会根据我们看到的资本使用机会，以及是否希望为未来机会保留某些资本而上下波动。
John, I don't know if you want to add anything to that.
John，不知道你是否想补充什么。
John Sauerland
VP & CFO
Yes. I would, as Jon Bauer did, refer folks back to our first quarter presentation where we detailed our financial policies, our capital structure as well as the change in premium to surplus targets. So we got approval to go to 3.5:1 and by far, the majority of our operating entities. That said, we were not able to move as far as we desired in 2025 to those ratios.
是的。正如 Jon Bauer 所说，我也建议大家回看我们第一季度的演示材料，其中我们详细说明了财务政策、资本结构以及保费对盈余目标的变化。因此，我们在绝大多数运营实体获得了提高到 3.5:1 的批准。话虽如此，2025 年我们并没有能够按照期望把这些比率提高到那么远。
Our aspiration is to continue to move premium to surplus ratios up in those entities in which we have received approval. I would also highlight that we received approval largely because our risk-based capital ratios are exceptional in those operating entities. So we have a great track record, especially in Personal Auto in underwriting margin. We have a conservative investment portfolio. We have, relatively speaking, little loss reserve development. All those factors go into the risk-based capital ratios, which is what, at the end of the day, I believe regulators look at to exceed their comfort level in the solvency of insurance companies.
我们的目标是在已经获得批准的实体中继续提高保费对盈余比率。我还想强调，我们之所以获得批准，很大程度上是因为这些运营实体的风险资本比率非常出色。因此，我们拥有非常好的历史记录，尤其是在个人汽车保险的承保利润率方面。我们拥有保守的投资组合。相对而言，我们的损失准备金发展幅度较小。所有这些因素都会进入风险资本比率，而归根结底，我认为监管机构看的正是这一点，以判断保险公司的偿付能力是否超过其舒适水平。
So we fared extremely well on RBCs in those companies even at the higher premium to surplus ratios and our aspiration working with regulators is to continue to move those ratios up, which obviously allows us to decrease the total equity we require on a GAAP basis, which obviously then can lead to higher ROEs. So that is the game plan we laid out in our first quarter call.
因此，即使在更高的保费对盈余比率下，我们这些公司的风险资本表现也极为良好。我们与监管机构合作的目标，是继续提高这些比率，这显然会让我们降低 GAAP 口径下所需的总权益资本，并且显然可能带来更高的股本回报率。因此，这就是我们在第一季度电话会议中提出的计划。
And as Jon Bauer did, I would refer folks back to that call for more detail.
和 Jon Bauer 一样，我建议大家回看那次电话会议，以获得更多细节。
Robert Cox
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
That's helpful. Maybe just a follow-up on advertising and the competitive environment. We noticed Progressive is accelerating advertising spend and obviously generating significant PIF growth. But it does look like to us that peer ad spend has somewhat flattened out at levels well below Progressive. What types of advertising is Progressive finding incrementally attractive today to deploy the additional advertising dollars? And why do you think Progressive is uniquely able to effectively deploy so much ad spend?
这很有帮助。也许再追问一下广告和竞争环境。我们注意到 Progressive 正在加快广告支出，并且显然正在产生显著的有效保单数量增长。但在我们看来，同行广告支出似乎已经在远低于 Progressive 的水平上趋于平稳。Progressive 现在认为哪些类型的广告在增量上具有吸引力，可以用于投放额外广告资金？为什么你们认为 Progressive 能够独特地有效部署如此大规模的广告支出？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
I'll start, and then I'll have Pat Callahan added. Like we talk about often, we are not going to advertise unless we think that we will get customers for that. We want to make sure it's efficient. So we'll advertise if our cost per sale is under our target acquisition cost. We target differently depending on the cost. And we -- and in each year, of course, we have to -- we'll pay some upfront costs for media -- mass media on TV have to do that well in advance. And then we look a lot more -- most of our incoming is in the digital area.
我先回答，然后请 Pat Callahan 补充。正如我们经常谈到的，如果我们不认为广告能够带来客户，我们就不会投放广告。我们要确保它是有效率的。因此，如果每笔销售成本低于我们的目标获客成本，我们就会投放广告。我们会根据成本不同设定不同目标。而且每一年，当然，我们都必须为媒体支付一些前期成本——电视上的大众媒体投放必须提前很久安排。然后我们会更多关注——我们大部分进来的流量是在数字领域。
So we sort of look across the spectrum of all ways with which to get eyes on our brand. And of course, that's a specific part of you can market, but if you don't have a well thought out and well-defined brand, it may not work. We obviously do for over a decade. We have -- whether it's our characters or our message ultimately resulting in people wanting to shop and wanting to convert with us when we have competitive prices, that's the key. So I'll have Pat add some color to that.
所以我们会审视所有能够让人看到我们品牌的方式。当然，这是营销中的一个具体部分，但如果你没有一个经过充分思考且定义清晰的品牌，它可能不会奏效。显然，我们已经这样做了十多年。无论是我们的角色形象，还是我们的信息传达，最终都要让人们在我们具备有竞争力价格时愿意比价、愿意转化为我们的客户，这才是关键。所以我请 Pat 再补充一些细节。
Patrick Callahan
President of Personal Lines
Yes, sure. So one of the differentiators, I think, within our customer acquisition, marketing media is a really strong in-house media team where we buy virtually all of our media in-house. And what that does is closely couples our media team with our product teams to understand at a more granular level, the ultimate cost of a piece of media as it translates through the performance of the media funnel being what the cost per impression is, how well it converts, what the average premium is and then ultimately, what the lifetime profitability on that risk may be. So we've talked for years that segmentation is in our blood and segmentation when it comes to media and operating our media buys highly efficiently is what we continue to do. So we continue to add to that team, and that team continues to work with media partners to find new ways to efficiently reach customers and ultimately get them to come try what we think is a phenomenal value in insurance protection products.
是的，当然。我认为，在我们的客户获取、营销和媒体能力中，一个差异化因素是我们拥有非常强大的内部媒体团队，几乎所有媒体购买都由内部完成。这使我们的媒体团队与产品团队紧密结合，能够以更细颗粒度理解一项媒体投放的最终成本，也就是它如何通过媒体漏斗的表现转化出来：每次曝光成本是多少，转化效果如何，平均保费是多少，最终该风险的生命周期盈利能力可能是多少。所以我们多年来一直说，细分能力已经融入我们的血液；在媒体方面进行细分，并以高效率运营我们的媒体购买，这正是我们持续在做的事情。因此，我们继续扩充这个团队，而这个团队也继续与媒体合作伙伴合作，寻找新的方式，以高效率触达客户，并最终让他们来尝试我们认为具有出色价值的保险保障产品。
So as Tricia started out with, we will continue to spend as long as it's efficient, and we monitor the efficiency of not only what we do from a run-the-business perspective, but we're constantly testing and learning and scaling winners and shutting off losers. And similar to the flywheel, there's adverse selection in media purchasing, meaning when we bid to a certain extent and back away and someone else outbids us, we're pretty confident the efficiency of that spend isn't going to return what they expected it would. And we do that in product, and we do that in media, and we do that in other parts of our business.
所以正如 Tricia 开头所说，只要投放仍然有效率，我们就会继续支出。我们不仅会从经营业务的角度监测所做事情的效率，也会持续测试、学习、扩大赢家、关闭输家。类似于飞轮，在媒体购买中也存在逆向选择，这意味着当我们出价到某个程度后退出来，而其他人出价超过我们时，我们相当有信心，那笔支出的效率不会达到他们原本期待的回报。我们在产品中这样做，在媒体中这样做，也在业务的其他部分这样做。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America.
下一个问题来自 Bank of America 的 Josh Shanker。
Joshua Shanker
BofA Securities, Research Division
If we look at the declining premium per policy in the agency segment, a lot of that seems to be, at least some of it, the growth rate of Sams and Dianes relative to Wrights and Robinsons, and you're just growing it faster in a lower premium bucket of consumers. If you're a big believer of Progressive as the signature destination for insurance shoppers, part of that promise is you have to grow the Robinsons and the Wrights, maybe you have to grow them faster than the Sams and Dianes. What are you doing right now to address that imbalance in the growth rates?
如果我们看代理渠道中每张保单保费的下降，其中很大一部分，至少一部分，似乎来自 Sams 和 Dianes 相对于 Wrights 和 Robinsons 的增长速度，也就是说，你们在保费较低的消费者群体中增长得更快。如果你们非常相信 Progressive 会成为保险消费者的标志性目的地，那么这一承诺的一部分就是必须增长 Robinsons 和 Wrights，也许还必须让它们比 Sams 和 Dianes 增长得更快。你们现在正在做什么来解决这种增长率不平衡？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I think we are definitely growing Sams again. And like I've said many times, that is okay because Sams were our bread and butter for a lot of years. And as long as we can price them accurately to make sure we have our profit margins that we target, it's important.
是的。我认为我们确实又在增长 Sams。正如我多次说过的，这没问题，因为 Sams 多年来一直是我们的核心基本盘。只要我们能够准确地为他们定价，确保达到我们设定的目标利润率，这就是重要的。
Now yes, you've hit on something important. I've talked about in the last couple of quarters. We definitely -- in order to achieve that new goalpost that Pat talked about in the opening comments, we want to be the #1 destination, which means private passenger auto is a piece of that, but property has to be another piece of that. So we definitely want to grow more on both the Robinsons and the Wrights.
是的，你确实点到了一个重要问题。我在过去几个季度也谈到过。为了实现 Pat 在开场评论中提到的那个新目标，我们希望成为第一目的地，这意味着私人乘用车保险只是其中一部分，财产保险也必须是其中另一部分。因此，我们确实希望在 Robinsons 和 Wrights 两类客户中实现更多增长。
So if you think about our agency channel, that is going to be the Progressive home product and the direct channel will be a stable of care of companies in -- that are non-affiliated. So we've been doing a lot of things. I talked about the blueprint. I've talked about kind of where we're going. I'll reiterate that and then talk about a couple more things we're doing and then give you some kind of a highlight or foreshadowing into our Q2 call, our deep dive.
所以如果你考虑我们的代理渠道，那将是 Progressive 的家居保险产品；而直销渠道则会是一组非关联公司的产品组合。我们一直在做很多事情。我谈过蓝图，也谈过我们大致要走向哪里。我会重申一下，然后再谈几件我们正在做的事情，最后给你们一点关于第二季度电话会议深度解析内容的提示或预告。
So we talked about new business readiness. So that is, do we have the right rate level? Do we have the right segmentation or the product model in play? Do we have cost sharing in the contract, interstate diversification and what are the regulatory and marketing conditions? So we have about 38 of our 47 states we've identified where we're in growth mode. We'll add a couple more states in quarter 2. So we want to increase availability, expand distribution and expand our underwriting appetite.
我们谈过新业务准备度。也就是说，我们是否有正确的费率水平？是否有正确的细分能力或产品模型投入使用？合同中是否有成本分担机制？是否有州际分散？监管和营销条件如何？在我们 47 个州中，大约有 38 个州已经被我们确定为处于增长模式。第二季度我们还会再增加几个州。因此，我们希望提高可提供性，扩大分销，并扩大承保意愿。
A couple of the new things that we are doing in the first quarter, in the second quarter is we're really trying to -- in the agency channel, like you had said, understand and address the barriers to growth and conversion and what are some agent pain points. So our property team and our agency distribution team have been doing sort of roundtables with our platinum agents. We've done 29 roundtables in quarter 1 in 13 states, and we'll do another 19 in 10 states in Q2.
我们在第一季度和第二季度正在做的几件新事情是，我们确实在努力——正如你所说，在代理渠道理解并解决增长和转化的障碍，以及代理人的一些痛点。因此，我们的财产保险团队和代理分销团队一直在与我们的白金代理人举行类似圆桌会议的交流。第一季度，我们在 13 个州举行了 29 场圆桌会议；第二季度，我们将在 10 个州再举行 19 场。
And we're learning, incorporating feedback, and I'm certain that will ensure changes or revisions to our products going forward. So we want to make sure that we do make sure that we have more Robinsons. That will be how we understand, how we get to our ultimate destination. And so we're trying to understand that. We don't want to swing the pendulum all the way. Obviously, we've had some volatile years. But yes, we agree with you. That is a big part of our growth strategy. We have a great team on that.
我们正在学习、吸收反馈，我确信这会推动我们未来对产品作出改变或修订。因此，我们要确保确实拥有更多 Robinsons。这将帮助我们理解如何到达最终目的地。所以我们正在努力理解这一点。我们不希望把钟摆一下子摆到另一端。显然，我们经历过一些波动较大的年份。但，是的，我们同意你的看法。这是我们增长战略中的重要部分。我们有一支很优秀的团队在推进这件事。
I'm going to let Pat talk if he wants any more of that. But I did want to say that our next deep dive will be on both overall property growth and Robinsons growth. And so if you could so that we are able to answer your questions adequately or accurately if we -- if there's information that we want to share, get those questions you have on both Robinsons growth and property growth overall to Juliana, our new Head of Investor Relations because she can start to gather those. And as John Curtiss, our Head of National Property and Jim Curtis, our relationship, our Head of Auto, they're going to be doing the deep dive next quarter. They can get those questions and try to really like be able to answer them in depth. So that's my one ask of you between now and our call will be in August, get those as soon as you can so we can get information sort of gathered to be adequately addressed any of those questions. Do you want to add anything else, Pat?
如果 Pat 想补充，我会请他说。但我确实想说，我们下一次深度解析将同时聚焦整体财产保险增长和 Robinsons 增长。因此，如果你们能够把关于 Robinsons 增长以及整体财产保险增长的问题发给我们的新任投资者关系负责人 Juliana，这样如果有我们想分享的信息，我们就能够充分而准确地回答你们的问题。她可以开始汇总这些问题。我们的全国财产保险负责人 John Curtiss，以及我们的汽车保险负责人 Jim Curtis，将在下个季度进行这次深度解析。他们可以拿到这些问题，并努力真正深入地回答。所以从现在到我们 8 月份电话会议之间，我对你们唯一的请求就是，请尽快把这些问题发过来，这样我们就能汇总信息，充分回应其中任何问题。Pat，你还想补充什么吗？
Patrick Callahan
President of Personal Lines
Just a couple of quick things, Josh. You mentioned the decline in average premiums in the agency channel, and that's driven by a lot of different things, not just the mix shift potentially to some Sams and Dianes, part of it is we're writing fewer annual policies than we were previously. And not all premium declines are compressing margin. So we see mix shift to better risks and different states that bring with them potentially a different average premium.
Josh，我只快速补充几点。你提到代理渠道平均保费下降，这是由很多不同因素驱动的，不只是业务组合可能向部分 Sams 和 Dianes 转移，其中一部分原因是我们签发的年度保单比以前少。而且，并不是所有保费下降都会压缩利润率。我们看到业务组合向更优质风险以及不同州转移，而这些组合本身可能带来不同的平均保费。
So I wouldn't want you to think that it's just a mix shift to Sams and Dianes, which there's a little bit of that as we're growing those rapidly. Now we're growing fast across segments, but we're growing those faster than we are the more preferred segments, and Tricia talked a little bit about that. But I guess I'd close with the focus on unlocking the Robinsons access, we'll spend some time on in August. And for us, it represents a $40 billion to $50 billion top line opportunity.
所以我不希望你认为这只是业务组合向 Sams 和 Dianes 转移。当然，确实有一点这个因素，因为我们在这些客户群中增长很快。现在我们在各个细分客户群中都增长很快，但这些客户群的增长速度快于更优选的细分客户群，Tricia 刚才也稍微谈到了这一点。不过我想最后强调，解锁 Robinsons 客户获取机会是我们关注的重点，8 月份我们会花一些时间谈这个问题。对我们而言，这代表着 400 亿到 500 亿美元的收入端机会。
So we have roughly 20% share of Sams, Dianes, and Wrights and penetrating 40% of the $240 billion U.S. Personal Lines, Robinsons opportunity is just massive top line growth, and that's why we're focusing on it, but doing it in a smart way to ensure it's deliberate, it's consistent and most importantly, profitable growth that we generate from that segment.
因此，我们在 Sams、Dianes 和 Wrights 中大约拥有 20% 的份额，而在美国个人险 2400 亿美元 Robinsons 机会中，即使渗透 40%，也意味着巨大的收入端增长。这就是我们聚焦于此的原因，但我们会以聪明的方式推进，确保来自这个细分客户群的增长是审慎的、一致的，最重要的是，是盈利性增长。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.
下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。
David Motemaden
Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Just wanted to just get an update on where cost per sale compares to your targeted acquisition costs now versus 3 months ago or maybe 6 months ago and how you're thinking about potentially increasing it by more over the next several months or quarters?
我只是想了解一下最新情况：现在每笔销售成本相对于你们目标获客成本的位置，与 3 个月前或 6 个月前相比如何？以及你们如何考虑在未来几个月或几个季度可能进一步提高这一支出？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. It's still under our targeted acquisition cost, probably a little bit tighter. But again, we look at that differently depending on the customer that we are acquiring. And so sometimes that target could move depending on type of media, type of customer. But so far, we see no reason to stop our current trend of advertising. If we see some decline or some reason, we'll pull back a little bit, but we are pretty excited about continuing our growth and part of that is our increased media spend.
是的。它仍然低于我们的目标获客成本，可能只是稍微更接近一些。不过，同样地，我们会根据所获取客户的不同而以不同方式看待这一点。因此，有时这个目标会根据媒体类型、客户类型而变化。但到目前为止，我们没有看到任何理由停止当前的广告投放趋势。如果我们看到某种下降或其他原因，我们会稍微收缩一些，但我们对继续增长感到相当兴奋，而其中一部分就是增加媒体投放支出。
David Motemaden
Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Got it. And then just following up to an answer to a previous question. I think it was Pat who spoke about some shoppers who maybe not have shopped for the past 10 years, now shopping. I'm assuming those are potentially Robinsons' customers. So I guess -- maybe just a high level, is that true? And then just maybe high level, how are you guys thinking about where the book of Robinsons stands today as a percentage of the total mix? And as you guys ease some of those property restrictions in certain markets, what's the expected time line for that to show up in Auto PIF and maybe actually a bit on the premium per policy side as there's more bundled Auto business?
明白。然后我想追问前面一个问题的回答。我记得是 Pat 提到，有些过去可能 10 年都没有比过价的消费者现在开始比价。我假设这些可能是 Robinsons 客户。所以我想问，从高层次看，这种理解是否正确？然后同样从高层次看，你们如何看待当前 Robinsons 业务在总业务组合中的占比？随着你们在某些市场放松部分财产保险限制，预计这需要多长时间才会体现在汽车保险有效保单数量中，也许也会体现在每张保单保费上，因为组合销售的汽车保险业务会更多？
Patrick Callahan
President of Personal Lines
Yes. So the comment that I made about longer tenured and older shoppers shopping is coming from LexisNexis demand meter. And it's interesting data, and it doesn't have necessarily our segment breakdown to know whether they are Robinsons, but I follow your intuition that if they're long tenured, they are likely a more stable insurance risk, whether they choose to place both their auto and home with the same carrier or not. So long tenured and stable risks do overlap well with where we want to go with the Robinsons segment. So we're underpenetrated. We think there's a massive upside potential in that segment, continue to invest against it.
是的。我关于持保时间更长、年龄更大的消费者开始比价的评论，来自 LexisNexis 需求指标。这些数据很有意思，但它不一定包含我们的细分客户划分，因此无法判断他们是否就是 Robinsons。不过，我理解你的直觉：如果他们持保时间较长，很可能是更稳定的保险风险，无论他们是否选择把汽车保险和房屋保险放在同一家保险公司。因此，持保时间较长且风险稳定的客户，与我们希望在 Robinsons 细分客户群中前进的方向高度重合。所以我们在这一领域渗透率不足。我们认为这个细分客户群存在巨大的上行潜力，并会继续对其进行投资。
But it's also a pretty competitive segment. It's an area that the captive or exclusive agent companies own a large portion of that market share. And as we know, those companies that are mutuals or in some cases, reciprocal have different objective functions and a different time horizon for how they think about pricing their products.
但这也是一个竞争相当激烈的细分市场。在这个领域，专属代理或独家代理公司占据了很大一部分市场份额。而且正如我们所知道的，那些互助制公司，或者在某些情况下的互惠制公司，在为产品定价时拥有不同的目标函数和不同的时间视角。
So we know that competition for those customers is high, will be high, but it's encouraging to see that once those customers seem to get a taste of the competitive market or the ease and savings that comes from the choice model of the independent agency distribution channel that we see them coming back and realizing that having choice, having breadth and depth of coverages potentially better meets their needs as an insurance consumer over their buying lifetime. So those are encouraging signs that we see, and that's why we continue to invest heavily in the independent agency channel where ease and savings come from the choice model.
因此，我们知道，对这些客户的竞争很激烈，而且还会继续很激烈。但令人鼓舞的是，一旦这些客户似乎体验到了竞争性市场，或者体验到了独立代理分销渠道的选择模式所带来的便利和节省，我们就会看到他们回来，并意识到拥有选择、拥有保障范围的广度和深度，可能更好地满足他们作为保险消费者在整个购买生命周期中的需求。这些都是我们看到的令人鼓舞的迹象，也正因如此，我们继续大力投资独立代理渠道；在这个渠道中，便利和节省来自选择模式。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James.
下一个问题来自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。
Charles Peters
Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division
In the limit -- just because I know you're running out of time, I'll just ask one question. Tricia, you talked about presenting the 3-year plan to the Board. And I know almost every quarter, you guys give us an updated view on autonomous vehicles. I just want to pull out the growth in your TNC business, which seems to be positive in Commercial Auto. There's the oncoming wave of Waymo's Teslas that are self-driving, et cetera. So I'm just curious when you map out your 3-year plan, how you're thinking your TNC business might evolve over the course of the next couple of years?
考虑到时间有限——我知道你们时间快到了，我只问一个问题。Tricia，你谈到向董事会提交三年规划。我也知道，几乎每个季度，你们都会给我们更新对自动驾驶汽车的看法。我想单独拎出你们 TNC 业务的增长来看，它在商业汽车保险中似乎是正面的。现在 Waymo、Tesla 等自动驾驶车辆的浪潮正在到来。所以我只是好奇，当你们制定三年规划时，是如何思考未来几年 TNC 业务可能演变的？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Gregory. I'll have Andrew talk a little bit more about that, but that was a big part of what we updated the Board on. I think we've talked about this since probably maybe right around 2013 or so, we have what we call a runway model, and we look at the addressable market. So we look at all trends. But obviously, we want to look at AVs and each level of AV, what that means from a market perspective, a safety perspective. We have relationships with TNC providers. Some of that increase could come from mileage. So there's some different ways that we -- that things increase in the TNC space.
谢谢，Gregory。我会请 Andrew 多谈一点，但这确实是我们向董事会更新内容中的重要部分。我想我们大概从 2013 年左右就开始谈这个问题。我们有一个所谓的“跑道模型”，用来观察可服务市场。因此，我们会观察所有趋势。但显然，我们也要观察自动驾驶汽车，以及自动驾驶每个级别从市场角度、安全角度意味着什么。我们与 TNC 服务提供商有合作关系。其中一部分增长可能来自行驶里程。因此，TNC 领域的增长有几种不同来源。
But we are very close to that data, and we have models that we work in terms of, hey, if this happens conservatively because I think you can read the articles just like you would read about self-driving cars 10 or 15 years ago and get piped up about it. It doesn't mean we're putting our head in the sand. What it means is, we're watching it closely and understanding very clearly that there's a lot of opportunity to continue to grow and work with a lot of these providers because I think it's going to be great for consumers and it's very different also depending on state, weather, driving, geo-fencing, all of that.
但我们非常贴近这些数据，并且有相关模型来分析，例如，如果这种情况以保守方式发生会怎样。因为我认为，你可以像 10 年或 15 年前阅读自动驾驶汽车相关文章那样，读到很多令人兴奋的内容。这并不意味着我们把头埋进沙子里。它意味着我们正在密切观察，并且非常清楚地理解，仍然有很多继续增长并与这些服务提供商合作的机会，因为我认为这对消费者会很好，而且情况也会因州、天气、驾驶环境、地理围栏等因素而大不相同。
But Andrew, do you want to give a little bit more insight?
Andrew，你想再多补充一点吗？
Andrew Quigg
Chief Strategy Officer
Yes. It's definitely a topic of conversation with our Board. We have an ongoing dialogue about autonomous vehicles and specifically in the TNC space. The only, I'd say, material commercialization right now is from Waymo, and they have a ridesharing service, right, that competes directly with our TNC customers. And so it's something we pay attention to.
是的。这绝对是我们与董事会讨论的话题。我们围绕自动驾驶汽车，尤其是 TNC 领域中的自动驾驶汽车，持续进行对话。我会说，目前唯一具有实质性商业化规模的是 Waymo，他们有一个网约车服务，对吧，这直接与我们的 TNC 客户竞争。因此，这是我们关注的事情。
Right now, Waymo's are in fewer -- many fewer urban areas than our TNC partners, and they are limited in the amount of vehicles that they have there. And so right now, at least from an insurance side, we don't see a cannibalization of the opportunity, but we're cognizant of it. And as we plan for the future, of course, we want to be careful on how we do that. We think there's robust demand. There's seasonality that's present in the TNC market.
目前，Waymo 所在的城市地区比我们的 TNC 合作伙伴少得多，而且他们在那里拥有的车辆数量有限。因此，至少从保险角度看，目前我们没有看到这一机会被蚕食，但我们意识到这种可能性。随着我们规划未来，当然，我们希望谨慎处理。我们认为需求仍然强劲。TNC 市场也存在季节性。
Certainly, in winter, people choose TNCs over -- more than they do during nice weather in the summer. When it's raining, there's more choice, when in the mornings in the evenings. And so there's this variability and seasonality of demand that's present in the TNC space that's hard to solve with a fixed set of vehicles that we might see from Waymo or other AV providers. And so for the long term, we think that there will be a combination of both AVs and TNC companies with human operators even in the far future. So something we pay attention to, something we think about, who knows, but we try to be cognizant of the risks that are there and the opportunities.
当然，在冬天，人们选择 TNC 的频率会高于夏天天气好的时候。下雨时，选择会更多；早晨和晚上也是如此。因此，TNC 领域存在这种需求波动性和季节性，而这很难用 Waymo 或其他自动驾驶汽车服务提供商可能拥有的一组固定车辆来解决。因此，从长期看，我们认为，即使在很远的未来，也会同时存在自动驾驶汽车，以及由人类驾驶员运营的 TNC 公司。这是我们关注的事情，也是我们思考的事情。谁知道未来会怎样，但我们会努力意识到其中的风险和机会。
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
And I would also add, Gregory, that that's one of the reasons why several years ago, regardless of what happens, we decided to really diversify more in our Commercial Lines organization. So we've had our 5 BMQs for a long time. But as we've gone into more fleet, especially medium fleet, our BOP program going direct. So that's one of the reasons why we have been investing and we'll continue to invest.
Gregory，我还想补充一点，这也是为什么几年前，无论未来发生什么，我们决定在商业险组织中进行更多元化。我们已经拥有 5 个业务市场问题很多年。但随着我们进入更多车队业务，尤其是中型车队，以及我们的企业主保单项目走向直销，这正是我们过去一直投资并将继续投资的原因之一。
Pat talked about it in his opening comments. We feel like we're in a really pivotal position right now with Commercial Lines industry, lack of profit has been around for a long time, even though it's getting a little bit better. I think the -- we think the 2025 CR is right, ex-Progressive is right about 105, but we have profit as one of our core values. So we want to make money in all lines. And so we think we have a really good point of growth right now in our Commercial Lines business. So regardless of what happens, and we can -- we'll continue to do modeling and be on top of AVs, that's one of the big reasons why we've diversified our product line in our Commercial Lines organization.
Pat 在开场评论中谈到过这一点。我们觉得，在商业险行业中，我们现在处于一个非常关键的位置。这个行业长期以来缺乏利润，尽管情况正在略微好转。我认为——我们认为不包括 Progressive 在内，2025 年行业综合成本率大约是 105，这是正确的。但盈利是我们的核心价值观之一。因此，我们希望在所有条线都赚钱。所以我们认为，现在我们的商业险业务拥有非常好的增长节点。因此，无论未来发生什么，我们都会继续建模，并持续跟进自动驾驶汽车；这也是我们在商业险组织中实现产品线多元化的重要原因之一。
Douglas Constantine
Director of Investor Relations
There is approximately 5 minutes left in the event. We'd like to preserve those 5 minutes with some closing remarks from Tricia. Those left in the queue with questions can direct them to myself or Juliana directly. Tricia?
本次活动大约还剩 5 分钟。我们希望把这 5 分钟留给 Tricia 作总结发言。队列中尚未提问的人，可以直接把问题发给我或 Juliana。Tricia？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Thank you. I just want to take a few moments. One, I want to welcome Juliana Patera as our new Director of Investor Relations. Many of you have met her. We're super excited to have her on the team. As I said, please give her any questions you have on Robinsons, on property, just so we can really adequately try to address your needs when we do our Q2 call in August.
谢谢。我想花一点时间说几件事。第一，我想欢迎 Juliana Patera 担任我们的新任投资者关系总监。你们很多人已经见过她。我们非常高兴她加入团队。正如我刚才所说，请把你们关于 Robinsons、关于财产保险的任何问题发给她，这样我们在 8 月份举行第二季度电话会议时，就能真正充分地尝试回应你们的需求。
And then hot off the press, I want to congratulate Doug Constantine on his new role in Progressive as IT Controller. We just announced it to the organization yesterday. Typical with Progressive, we love moving people around. So Doug has been in PL, has been in CL and now he's in our right-hand guy prepping us for these calls for many, many years, and his work has been really appreciated. So thank you so much, and congratulations, Doug.
然后是刚刚发布的消息，我想祝贺 Doug Constantine 在 Progressive 担任新的职务——信息技术控制主管。我们昨天刚向组织内部宣布这一消息。Progressive 的典型做法就是，我们喜欢让人才在不同岗位之间流动。所以 Doug 曾经在个人险条线工作，也曾在商业险条线工作，而多年来，他一直是我们准备这些电话会议的得力助手，他的工作非常受认可。因此，非常感谢你，也祝贺你，Doug。
And then lastly, John Sauerland, and this is his last IR call. He announced that he'd be retiring in July, and he has been instrumental in making these successful and sort of being everyone's right-hand guy. There's -- the weekend before when we start to get competitor news and different things, I always turn to John to get any answers. And of course, he's been mentoring Andrew as we pass the baton. So I would like to give -- for those of you in the room, give John Sauerland a round of applause.
最后是 John Sauerland，这是他最后一次参加投资者关系电话会议。他已经宣布将在 7 月退休。他对这些会议的成功发挥了关键作用，也可以说一直是大家的得力助手。每当会前那个周末，我们开始收到竞争对手新闻以及各种信息时，我总是会找 John 寻求答案。当然，在交接过程中，他也一直在指导 Andrew。因此，我想请——在场的各位，请为 John Sauerland 鼓掌致意。
Douglas Constantine
Director of Investor Relations
Thanks, Tricia. Rebecca, I'll hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.
谢谢，Tricia。Rebecca，我把电话会议交还给你，由你宣读结束语。
Operator
That concludes the Progressive Corporation's First Quarter Investor Event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.
Progressive Corporation 第一季度投资者活动到此结束。本次活动的回放信息将在未来一年内发布于 Progressive 网站的投资者关系栏目。现在各位可以断线。