BECKY QUICK: We are sitting down right now with Warren Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who, for the first time in 60 years, has been watching all of this from the audience instead of being on stage. And you know, last year at this time, Warren, you surprised everyone with the announcement that you were stepping down as CEO. Fast forward a year, and here we are. What do you think?

BECKY QUICK：我们现在正和 Berkshire Hathaway 董事长 Warren Buffett 坐在一起。60 年来，这是他第一次不是站在台上，而是坐在观众席里看完整个过程。你知道，Warren，去年这个时候，你宣布将卸任首席执行官，让所有人都感到意外。一年过去了，现在我们在这里。你怎么看？

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think it’s all working. It’s all working. It isn’t our ideal surrounding area or environment, I should say, in terms of deploying cash for Berkshire, but in terms of how we got the right management, we got the right arrangement, and you know, we can pick our spots, and nobody can tell us what to do exactly. And so sometimes we’re doing nothing, but other times we get quite active. I mean,

WARREN BUFFETT：嗯，我认为一切都在正常运转。一切都在正常运转。就 Berkshire 配置现金而言，我应该说，周围的环境或外部环境并不是我们理想中的状态；但就我们拥有正确的管理层、正确的安排而言，你知道，我们可以选择自己的出手机会，没有人能准确地告诉我们该怎么做。所以有时候我们什么也不做，但有时候我们会非常积极。我的意思是，

QUICK: You know, Ajit spent some time on the stage today talking about how one of his keys is to do nothing when it –

QUICK：你知道，Ajit 今天在台上花了一些时间谈到，他的关键原则之一就是在某些时候什么也不做——

BUFFETT: Absolutely.

BUFFETT：完全正确。

QUICK: – comes to insurance, when it comes to writing insurance, which is the same thing that you have always talked about with whether to invest or not.

QUICK：——在保险业务上，在承保保险时，这和你一直谈到的“是否投资”其实是同一回事。

BUFFETT: Yeah, the world is full of people that are offering you things to do. And then the question, is to – find one that you know makes sense, and there may be 20 out there that make sense, that you don’t understand, and you just leave them alone.

BUFFETT：是的，这个世界到处都是向你推销“可以做点什么”的人。问题在于——你要找到那个你知道确实讲得通的机会；外面也许还有 20 个机会也讲得通，但你不理解，那就把它们放在一边。

QUICK: You said that the world or the surrounding environment is not ideal. And I guess that points to the idea that there’s almost $400 billion in cash on hand, although Greg took some pains to show it’s really more like $380 billion in cash on hand –

QUICK：你说这个世界，或者说外部环境并不理想。我想这指向一个事实：Berkshire 手上有将近 4,000 亿美元现金，尽管 Greg 今天特意说明，实际更接近 3,800 亿美元现金——

BUFFETT: Well, yeah –

BUFFETT：嗯，是的——

QUICK: – but that there’s a lot of cash on hand, and you’re still active in managing the portfolio too, and looking at stocks. You’re looking around and you don’t see a lot that you want to invest in.

QUICK：——但手上的现金确实很多，而且你仍然在积极管理投资组合，也仍然在看股票。你环顾四周，并没有看到很多你想投资的东西。

BUFFETT: Well, then we don’t do anything. I mean, we’ve been – up to 60 years I’ve been in the business. Probably five of them really juicy. And I think it was Tom Watson Sr. of IBM that said they asked him the reason why IBM had been so successful, or something like that, and he said, I’m smart of spots, and I stay around those spots, and that’s the whole thing. And IBM was in three different businesses, including time clocks and a couple – and two of the three turned out to be no good, but – so they just focused on the one.

BUFFETT：那我们就什么也不做。我的意思是，我在这个行业里已经——到现在 60 年了。真正特别肥美的年份，大概也就 5 年。我记得好像是 IBM 的 Tom Watson Sr.，有人问他 IBM 为什么能如此成功，或者类似的问题，他说，我只在少数地方聪明，而且我就待在那些地方，整件事就是这样。IBM 当时做三个不同的业务，包括考勤钟，还有另外几个——其中三个里面有两个后来证明并不好，所以他们就把注意力集中在那个好的业务上。

QUICK: What is it when you look around that – it’s just prices are too high at this point?

QUICK：那你现在环顾四周，问题到底是什么——只是现在价格太高了吗？

BUFFETT: Yeah.

BUFFETT：是的。

QUICK: I would imagine there are – Greg said this from the stage too, there are businesses that you liked –

QUICK：我想应该有一些——Greg 今天在台上也说过，有些企业你们是喜欢的——

BUFFETT: Yeah, well –

BUFFETT：是的，嗯——

QUICK: – just not these prices.

QUICK：——只是不能接受现在这些价格。

BUFFETT: And I would say, I understand fewer of the businesses as a percentage of the whole than I did 10 years ago. I have not learned new industries for some years. And so I don’t kid myself on that. I’m not going to learn them. I’m not going to have an edge on a whole bunch of younger people that have actually grown up with them, used the product, seen things, but – well, as I mentioned, you know, you don’t have to understand too many if they’re like Apple.

BUFFETT：而且我会说，以整个商业世界为基数，我现在能理解的企业比例，比 10 年前更少。这些年我没有再去学习新的行业。所以在这一点上，我不会自欺欺人。我不会去学它们。我也不可能在一大批年轻人面前拥有优势——他们是真正伴随这些行业长大、使用过这些产品、亲眼看过很多变化的人。不过——就像我提到的，你知道，如果它们像 Apple 这样的企业，你也不需要理解太多家。

QUICK: But looking around, let’s just get some macro thoughts on this, because I don’t know that this is something that that Greg is going to comment on, per se, just looking at the macro stock market environment, what does this feel like to you? Is – does it feel expensive? Does it feel like there are opportunities in some places?

QUICK：但环顾四周，我们谈谈更宏观的看法吧，因为我不确定 Greg 本人会不会评论这个问题。单看宏观股票市场环境，你现在的感觉是什么？是不是——感觉很贵？还是觉得有些地方仍然存在机会？

BUFFETT: Well, it feels like, you know, I’ve compared the markets to a church with a casino attached. And people can move between the church and casino. And I would say there are more people in the church and more people in the casino, but the casino has gotten very attractive to people. If you’re buying one day options, or selling them, I mean that is – that’s not investing, it’s not speculating, it’s gambling. Just totally. There’s nobody that can explain why they’re buying an option for one day, unless they maybe the fellow that made the 400 and some thousand dollars from knowing when we were going into Venezuela can do it. But I mean, that’s for – and the quantity of those things is just incredible. So we’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now. But that doesn’t mean that investing is terrible. It does mean that prices for an awful lot of things will look very silly. I mean, they have a squeeze, and then Avis of all things. Well, Avis has been around for 50 years, but just this past week – and we have lots more regulation and everything now, but people spend their time figuring out how to get around the rules rather than follow the rules. That’s just a challenge.

BUFFETT：嗯，感觉就像是，你知道，我曾经把市场比作一座旁边连着赌场的教堂。人们可以在教堂和赌场之间来回走动。我会说，现在教堂里的人更多了，赌场里的人也更多了，但赌场对人们的吸引力变得非常强。如果你在买一天到期的期权，或者卖一天到期的期权，我的意思是，那不是投资，也不是投机，那就是赌博。完全是赌博。没有人能够解释为什么他们要买一张一天到期的期权，除非也许那个因为知道我们什么时候要进入委内瑞拉而赚了 40 多万美元的人能解释。但我的意思是，那是为了——而这些东西的交易数量简直难以置信。所以人们从来没有像现在这样处在更强的赌博情绪中。但这并不意味着投资本身很糟糕。它确实意味着，很多东西的价格看起来会非常荒唐。我的意思是，先是出现逼空，然后居然轮到 Avis。嗯，Avis 已经存在 50 年了，但就在过去这一周——而且我们现在有更多监管，等等，但人们把时间花在研究如何绕开规则上，而不是遵守规则。这本身就是一个问题。

QUICK: The type of investor you though, is, you laid it out yourself. In the 60 years you’ve been doing this in the business, you’ve had maybe five juicy years. I guess that means you’re always looking for the next juicy year. What do you think it would take to make a juicy year or a juicy opportunity for you?

QUICK：但像你这样的投资者——你自己刚才也说了，在你从事这个行业的 60 年里，真正肥美的年份大概只有 5 年。我想这意味着你一直在寻找下一个肥美年份。你认为，对你来说，什么条件会构成一个肥美年份，或者一个肥美机会？

BUFFETT: It’s a phone call. In many – in some cases, but the board of business last year wasn’t big enough to be meaningful but we got a letter.

BUFFETT：可能就是一个电话。在很多——在某些情况下是这样，不过去年那笔业务的规模还不够大，不能产生实质意义，但我们收到了一封信。

QUICK: At Bell Labs?

QUICK：是在 Bell Labs？

BUFFETT: Yeah, Bell Labs. And sometimes there’s more zeros attached to them than others, and we’re big enough to handle anything, and we can make decisions faster than anybody, and our word is good. There’s an awful lot of people that when they –  they’re in the business of reselling something, or you know, it’s – and it’s a lot better if you’re a good salesperson. There’s no reason to be selling vacuum cleaners or, you know, might as well sell stock. You’ll make way more money. It’s where the money is, and there’s more money around than ever.

BUFFETT：是的，Bell Labs。有时候这些机会后面跟着的零会比其他时候更多，而我们的规模足以处理任何事情，我们做决策的速度可以比任何人都快，而且我们说话算数。很多人当他们——他们本质上是在做转售某种东西的生意，或者你知道，就是——如果你是一个好的销售员，这会有利得多。没理由去卖吸尘器，或者你知道，不如去卖股票。你能赚多得多的钱。钱就在那个地方，而且现在的钱比以往任何时候都多。

QUICK: But the best opportunities have probably come when the macro environment leads to panic –

QUICK：但最好的机会，可能通常出现在宏观环境引发恐慌的时候——

BUFFETT: That’s the most likely, yeah. Well, the most likely time to buy things is when nobody else will answer their phones. You know, everybody else talks about their wonderful trading departments and everything. Just try them out. Sometimes, when markets are collapsing, they don’t answer the phones. And if they do, the bids are subject and the offers are subject and the spread is wide, and they’ll use the information they get from you about what you want to do to go out and kill you some other way. I mean, it’s really like going to a slaughterhouse. I mean, you know, you don’t feel like eating hot dogs for a while.

BUFFETT：是的，这是最可能的时候。嗯，最可能买到东西的时候，是别人都不接电话的时候。你知道，其他人总是在谈论他们那些出色的交易部门等等。你真的去试试看。有时候，当市场正在崩溃时，他们根本不接电话。就算接了，买价也是有条件的，卖价也是有条件的，买卖价差很宽，而且他们会利用从你那里得到的信息——关于你想做什么——再用其他方式出去宰你。我的意思是，这真的像是走进屠宰场。我的意思是，你知道，之后有一阵子你都不会想吃热狗。

QUICK: I guess what I’m trying to get at is, do you see the circumstances building up anywhere that could lead to a time like that again, any sort of panic in the market?

QUICK：我想我真正想问的是，你是否看到某些地方正在积累条件，可能再次导致那样的时刻，导致市场出现某种恐慌？

BUFFETT: Sure.

BUFFETT：当然。

QUICK: Where do you see them?

QUICK：你在哪里看到这些迹象？

BUFFETT: Well, if you saw them, then they wouldn’t happen.

BUFFETT：嗯，如果你能看见它们，那它们就不会发生了。

QUICK: Okay.

QUICK：好吧。

BUFFETT: I mean, you’ve got all kinds –  you don’t worry about what people are talking about can happen. It’s something that comes out of the blue, but something will come out of the blue. I mean, a nuclear bomb could come out of the blue.

BUFFETT：我的意思是，你会遇到各种各样的——你不必担心那些人们正在谈论“可能会发生”的事情。真正的问题往往是突然冒出来的事情，但某些事情一定会突然冒出来。我的意思是，一枚核弹也可能突然从天而降。

QUICK: Well, let’s knock on wood on that.

QUICK：嗯，那我们还是敲敲木头，祈求别发生吧。

BUFFETT: Well, it doesn’t do any good. It’s not going to – that’s the point. It was the Arch Duke getting shot, you know, and then 1914 or something like that, for World War One. It just takes everything in life. And if it’s something people are talking about and thinking about, it’s not going to happen. But there are things that can happen out of the blue, and actually, that’s particularly true to use that phraseology now, because the things that can come out of the sky, we don’t know what can happen tomorrow. I don’t like to talk that way to people, whether it’s you or anybody else, I mean, because whether it does you a lot of good to worry about that. I don’t think it does do any good to worry about it. I think it’s good to be cognizant of it, but the worrying about it is terrible. And I don’t like to – I don’t like to even cause that belief with people, I don’t like to go and tell them the end is coming. The end is coming or something like that.

BUFFETT：嗯，那没有什么用。它不会——这正是关键。就像 Arch Duke 被刺杀，你知道，然后到了 1914 年，或者类似那样，第一次世界大战就爆发了。生活中的很多事情都是这样。如果某件事是人们正在谈论、正在思考的，它通常就不会发生。但有些事情会突然冒出来，而且实际上，现在用这种说法尤其贴切，因为有些东西确实可能从天上掉下来，我们不知道明天会发生什么。我不喜欢对别人这样说，不管是对你，还是对其他任何人，我的意思是，因为担心这些事到底能给你带来多少好处？我不认为担心它有什么好处。我认为意识到它是好的，但为它忧虑是很糟糕的。而且我不喜欢——我甚至不喜欢在人们心里制造这种信念，我不喜欢走出去告诉大家末日要来了。末日要来了，或者诸如此类的话。

QUICK: A friend told me yesterday, he’s recently started using the phrase I don’t fret, I don’t worry. And that’s probably a good way to go about life. But let’s talk about some of the issues that are out there right now. Inflation is up. That’s an issue. So how does Berkshire – how does Berkshire handle that with its businesses?

QUICK：昨天一位朋友告诉我，他最近开始用一句话：我不烦躁，我不忧虑。这大概是一种不错的人生态度。但我们来谈谈目前摆在眼前的一些问题。通胀上升了，这是一个问题。那么 Berkshire——Berkshire 如何通过旗下业务来应对这个问题？

BUFFETT: Well, we can’t handle runaway inflation, except not to be there in the way of it. And if you look at the number of countries that had runaway inflation since World War Two, you know, in my lifetime, it’s very large. And once you create that, it becomes a different world. Germany obviously experienced it after World War One, but there are dozens and dozens of countries that have experienced it. And of course, you have countries going bankrupt like six or seven times. I mean, it’s just amazing what people do in financial markets.

BUFFETT：嗯，面对失控通胀，我们无法真正应对，除了不要站在它前进的路径上。如果你看看第二次世界大战以来出现过失控通胀的国家数量，你知道，在我的一生中，这个数字非常大。一旦你制造出那种局面，世界就变成了另一个样子。德国显然在第一次世界大战后经历过这种情况，但还有几十个国家也经历过。当然，也有一些国家破产过六七次。我的意思是，人们在金融市场里做出的事情，真是令人惊讶。

QUICK: What about the inflation that we’re dealing with right now, which is, you know, not excessive. It’s north of 3% at this point. But we’re not even back at the levels we were during covid, where we got to eight to 9% –

QUICK：那我们现在正在面对的通胀呢？你知道，它并不过分。目前略高于 3%。但我们甚至还没有回到新冠期间的水平，当时通胀达到 8% 到 9%——

BUFFETT: Oh no –

BUFFETT：哦，没有——

QUICK: – so what about just higher energy prices? How that works through the line and how you handle it?

QUICK：——那么，如果只是能源价格更高呢？它如何沿着业务链条传导，你们又如何处理？

BUFFETT: Well, it came close before Volcker. I mean, it was just, it was cash is trash. People were losing faith in the currency, and they felt they could borrow 12%, earn 6% on farming or something like that, and they had huge farmers in this state – Nebraska – collapse because they bought beyond the earning power, they’re paying interest rates beyond the earning power just because they felt that the dollar was going to disappear and the land wouldn’t disappear. And it’s tragic for many people, and if you’re the best doctor in town or the best lawyer in town, you’ll always make money under any – the best TV personality, I mean it’s, but – what not having faith in the money does to a country, it turns it into something else.

BUFFETT：嗯，在 Volcker 之前，情况曾经很接近那种状态。我的意思是，当时就是一种“现金是垃圾”的状态。人们正在失去对货币的信心，他们觉得自己可以以 12% 的利率借钱，然后在农业或者类似事情上赚 6%，结果这个州——Nebraska——有很多大农场主崩溃了，因为他们买入的资产超出了其盈利能力，他们支付的利率也超出了盈利能力，只因为他们觉得美元会消失，而土地不会消失。这对很多人来说都是悲剧。如果你是镇上最好的医生，或者最好的律师，在任何情况下你总是能赚钱——如果你是最好的电视名人，我的意思是，也是这样。但一个国家一旦失去对货币的信心，它就会变成另一种东西。

QUICK: Yeah.

QUICK：是的。

BUFFETT: I’ve always hoped the U.S. never does it, but we are not immune from it happening. We have a lot of control over whether rates may go up a half a point or down a half a point, but what we may have less control over is whether they go up 50 points.

BUFFETT：我一直希望美国永远不会走到那一步，但我们并不是天然免疫。对于利率是上升半个百分点还是下降半个百分点，我们有很大的控制力；但对于利率是否会上升 50 个百分点，我们可能没有那么大的控制力。

QUICK: You’ve long been a supporter of Jay Powell’s.

QUICK：你长期以来一直支持 Jay Powell。

BUFFETT: Exactly.

BUFFETT：没错。

QUICK: He had his last FOMC meeting as chairman just this last week. He did say that he’s going to be sticking around staying on the Fed, staying in that position for the foreseeable future, in part because of the threats that he’s faced.

QUICK：就在上周，他以主席身份主持了最后一次 FOMC 会议。他确实表示，自己会继续留在美联储，在可预见的未来继续留在那个职位上，部分原因是他曾经面临过一些威胁。

BUFFETT: I’ll feel better when he’s there better than when he’s not. I mean, you know, I just felt better when Volcker was there. But you, economists aren’t the best this sort of thing, you know, read it in the old economics book from 1950, 1970 that, Paul Samuelson was a terrific guy and smart as hell. He had the standard textbook for 25 years. And if you looked up, you know, zero interest rates, and year after year after year, it was a 900 page book, and there wasn’t an entry for it, you know, I mean, it was the most important economic development, I mean, in terms of the impact it would have and everything during the lifetime of the students reading it. But it’s what you don’t think of that does all the damage.

BUFFETT：他在那个位置上，我会比他不在那个位置上感觉更好。我的意思是，你知道，当 Volcker 在那里的时候，我就是感觉更好。但你知道，经济学家并不是最擅长处理这类事情的人。你去读 1950 年、1970 年那些老的经济学教材，Paul Samuelson 是个了不起的人，也聪明得很。他的标准教材用了 25 年。如果你去查“零利率”，你知道，一年又一年，那是一本 900 页的书，却没有这个条目。你知道，我的意思是，从它会产生的影响，以及对那些正在读这本书的学生一生中的影响来看，这可能是最重要的经济发展。但真正造成所有伤害的，往往是你没有想到的东西。

QUICK: Let’s talk a little bit about CEOs in some of the Berkshire holdings. You mentioned Apple’s Tim Cook and just the phenomenal job you think he’s done.

QUICK：我们来谈谈 Berkshire 一些持股公司的首席执行官吧。你提到了 Apple 的 Tim Cook，以及你认为他所做的工作非常出色。

BUFFETT: Incredible.

BUFFETT：不可思议。

QUICK: He’s not the only one of your major holding CEOs who’s stepped down. James Quincey recently stepped down from Coca-Cola too. And we just spoke with Vicki Hollub who announced that she is retiring and stepping down from that position at Occidental. Part of what Greg’s talked about is how stable that portfolio is and and these holdings or companies that he knows, and managers that he did, that he knows. There’s going to be some new managers in some of those major holdings coming in. Is that a problem?

QUICK：他并不是你们主要持股公司中唯一一位已经卸任的首席执行官。James Quincey 最近也从 Coca-Cola 卸任了。我们刚刚还和 Vicki Hollub 谈过，她宣布自己将退休，并从 Occidental 的职位上退下来。Greg 谈到的一个重点，是这个投资组合有多稳定，这些持股或公司是他了解的，管理者也是他认识的。但其中一些主要持股公司将会迎来新的管理者。这会成为问题吗？

BUFFETT: Well, it was certainly a problem in Coca-Cola there for a good many years when I was around the company. I mean, sure, it’s and you have the most problems with a really good company, because it’ll, it’ll, it’ll, it’ll continue. I mean, if you’re selling some product that people are buying every day, they make the wrong decision for a long time. But that’s one of the problems with investing that, Tim Cook, I felt was very, very good from the start and are, most of our managers are very good at the smaller problems, like they can’t anticipate the overwhelming problems. That’s my job, or now Greg’s job.

BUFFETT：嗯，在我接触 Coca-Cola 的那些年里，这确实曾经是一个问题，而且持续了相当多年。我的意思是，当然，这——而且你在一家真正优秀的公司上反而会遇到最多问题，因为它会，它会，它会，它会继续存在。我的意思是，如果你卖的是人们每天都会购买的某种产品，那么即使他们做出错误决策，也可以持续很长时间。但这正是投资中的一个问题。至于 Tim Cook，我从一开始就觉得他非常、非常优秀。我们大多数经理人在处理较小的问题上都很出色，但他们无法预见那些压倒性的重大问题。那是我的工作，或者现在是 Greg 的工作。

QUICK: Do you feel good about those holdings still? Have you met any of the new managers of those businesses?

QUICK：你现在对这些持股仍然感觉好吗？你见过这些公司的新管理者吗？

BUFFETT: I haven’t met the old managers—

BUFFETT：我连那些老管理者都没见过——

QUICK: Of the new businesses of the new CEOs that are coming in? Tim Cook’s replacement?

QUICK：那些即将上任的新首席执行官呢？比如 Tim Cook 的接任者？

BUFFETT: Oh yeah, you know—

BUFFETT：哦，是的，你知道——

QUICK: Henrique at Coca-Cola.

QUICK：Coca-Cola 的 Henrique。

BUFFETT: I certainly met the people at Bell Labs that we did. You know, obviously I met Becky, we made the deal and so I enjoy meeting the people, but you can make mistakes with people. I mean look at the divorce rate. You know, that’s more important than whether you got the right CEO or anything else, and now you’ve got years of trial. I mean, back when I was young, you had to make the decision, or you didn’t have to make the decision but a good many people made the decision when they were 20 or 21—

BUFFETT：我当然见过我们在 Bell Labs 打交道的那些人。你知道，显然我见过 Becky，我们达成了交易，所以我喜欢见人，但你也可能在人身上犯错。我的意思是，看看离婚率。你知道，那比你是否选对首席执行官，或者任何其他事情都更重要，而现在人们有好几年的试用期。我的意思是，在我年轻的时候，你必须做决定，或者说你也不是必须做决定，但很多人在 20 或 21 岁时就做了决定——

QUICK: To get married.

QUICK：决定结婚。

BUFFETT: Yeah, they got married and now they spend five years, they still make the same mistakes.

BUFFETT：是的，他们结婚了。而现在的人花五年时间，最后还是犯同样的错误。

QUICK: So you think we’re getting worse at our judgment?

QUICK：所以你认为我们的判断力正在变差吗？

BUFFETT: Well, I don’t know. Maybe that people behave differently before the marriage than after, who knows exactly, I would say that almost everybody feels either their marriage is better or worse than they anticipated a month after they were married. But I don’t know which.

BUFFETT：嗯，我不知道。也许人们在婚前和婚后的表现不同，谁知道究竟是怎么回事。我会说，几乎每个人在结婚一个月后，都会觉得自己的婚姻要么比预期更好，要么比预期更差。但我不知道是哪一种。

QUICK: Warren, let’s talk a little bit about deepfakes because the deepfake Warren that popped up early in this session was pretty good. They had somebody standing up, you know, Greg was joking about it, but, you know, the first, the first question went to a guy from Warren up in the rafters, who lives in Omaha. You’ve been concerned about some of these AI deepfakes, and what that means for the world.

QUICK：Warren，我们来谈谈深度伪造吧，因为今天这场会议早些时候出现的那个深度伪造 Warren 做得相当不错。他们安排了一个人站起来，你知道，Greg 还拿这事开玩笑，但你知道，第一个，第一个问题是提给一个坐在高处看台上的“Warren”，他住在 Omaha。你一直担心这些 AI 深度伪造，以及它们对世界意味着什么。

BUFFETT: Yeah, I would be concerned if everybody was, well, actually, the worst thing would be to have a really good imitator of any president that came along. I mean, just imagine, well yet we had that famous thing before, way back in New Jersey, where they the Martians coming and everything like—

BUFFETT：是的，我会担心，如果每个人都——嗯，实际上，最糟糕的情况是出现一个对任何一位总统都模仿得非常像的人。我的意思是，想象一下，嗯，我们以前就有过那件著名的事情，很久以前在 New Jersey，说火星人来了，诸如此类——

QUICK: Oh, “War of the Worlds” with Orson Welles.

QUICK：哦，Orson Welles 的《War of the Worlds》。

BUFFET: But what you can do, well, if you convince people to lend you money, you shouldn’t be borrowing it, I mean, it’s it’s scary, and it’s particularly scary when you have nine countries or so with nuclear weapons and people working on it, something even more, we haven’t dealt with this. We don’t know what’s going to happen.

BUFFETT：但你能做的，嗯，如果你能说服别人借钱给你，而你本不该借这些钱，我的意思是，这很可怕。而且当大约有九个国家拥有核武器，还有人在研究更进一步的东西时，这尤其可怕。我们还没有真正处理过这种局面。我们不知道会发生什么。

QUICK: Let’s circle back to Berkshire and the Berkshire of today. I think I was speaking with you yesterday or the day before, and we were talking a little bit about Greg Abel, and what a nice guy he is.

QUICK：我们回到 Berkshire，谈谈今天的 Berkshire。我想我昨天或者前天和你聊过，我们谈了一点 Greg Abel，以及他是一个多么好的人。

BUFFETT: He is a terrific guy.

BUFFETT：他是一个非常出色的人。

QUICK: You said something interesting to me though about how you picked him, and it wasn’t because he was a nice guy. Why did you pick him?

QUICK：不过你当时跟我说了一件很有意思的事，关于你为什么选择他，而且并不是因为他人好。你为什么选择他？

BUFFETT: Well, he’s very, very, very smart about businesses. Incidentally, he’s getting his Canadian I mean, he’s getting his American citizenship here very soon, and he was going over with me all the things he had to learn about. And I’ve actually spent a little time in the past with groups of individuals. Of course, my wife, too became an American citizenship, American citizen, and the things they have to learn about, the Constitution and all this. And they’re usually so proud when they become American citizens. And I think I detected in Greg even, I mean, you know, as successful he’s been in everything else, I mean, he is, it means something to him to become an American citizen, and he sits there with his young son, you know, and the son knows more about some of the answers of the questions, you know, that he may get asked, or something about becoming a citizen. It’s really interesting. Where else does that happen in the world? I mean, what people, you know, America’s special, and it’s a miracle what America’s accomplished. I mean, it’s just an absolute miracle. And yet, the miracle, the division of the output and everything is about as inequitable as you can come up with, while at the same time, it’s got these great attractions. There is some secret sauce. Never been able to define it precisely, but when you run a country for 200 and some years, and people want to come here every year, I mean, there’s something about it. And what Greg Abel is very, you know, is looking forward to becoming an American citizen. That means something to him. And he can’t buy that at any place, they’re packaging it or it won’t work for Madison Avenue approach, approach, be an American or something like that. But that feeling just goes in my 95 years, I’ve seen it, you know, time after time, so I felt, I felt good when Greg just volunteered that day or two to me that he was is up there for his final exams on becoming a citizen.

BUFFETT：嗯，他对企业非常、非常、非常聪明。顺便说一句，他很快就要取得他的加拿大——我是说，他很快就要取得美国公民身份了。他一直在和我一起复习那些他必须学习的内容。过去我也确实花过一些时间，和一些准备入籍的人待在一起。当然，我妻子也成为了美国公民，他们必须学习宪法等等这些东西。而他们在成为美国公民时，通常都非常自豪。我想我在 Greg 身上也感受到了这一点。我的意思是，你知道，尽管他在其他所有方面都已经如此成功，但成为美国公民这件事，对他来说是有意义的。他和年幼的儿子坐在一起，你知道，儿子对某些问题的答案，反而比他知道得更多，那些可能在入籍考试中被问到的问题，或者关于成为公民的事情。这真的很有意思。世界上还有哪里会发生这种事？我的意思是，人们，你知道，美国是特殊的，美国所取得的成就是一个奇迹。我的意思是，这绝对是一个奇迹。然而，这个奇迹，其产出的分配以及其他一切，又几乎可以说是不公平到极致；但与此同时，它又具有这些巨大的吸引力。这里面有某种秘密配方。我从来没能精确定义它，但当你经营一个国家 200 多年，而且每年都有人想来这里，我的意思是，这其中一定有某种东西。而 Greg Abel 非常，你知道，他很期待成为美国公民。这对他来说有意义。而这件事他在任何地方都买不到，也不是把它包装一下，或者用 Madison Avenue 那套宣传方式，说什么“成为美国人”之类就能奏效的。但这种感受，在我 95 年的人生中，我一次又一次见过。所以当 Greg 一两天前主动告诉我，他正在进行成为公民的最后考试时，我感觉很好。

QUICK: I didn’t realize he wasn’t a dual citizen already. I knew he was Canadian, but I thought he had dual citizenship.

QUICK：我之前没有意识到他还不是双重国籍。我知道他是加拿大人，但我以为他已经拥有双重国籍了。

BUFFETT: He doesn’t have a full, whatever the complete citizenship requirement is and and you can say, why does he care, I mean, he’s gotten along fine without it here and everything. He still wants to be a citizen.

BUFFETT：他还没有完整的，不管完整公民身份要求具体是什么。你可能会说，他为什么在乎呢？我的意思是，没有这个身份，他在这里也一直过得很好，各方面都没问题。但他仍然想成为公民。

QUICK: Yeah. 250 years, we’re celebrating our 250th anniversary. You pointed out that you’ve been around for 95 of them. You think we have the special sauce that that will continue in this country, or what do we need to do to preserve that and make sure that it does continue.

QUICK：是的。250 年，我们正在庆祝建国 250 周年。你指出过，其中 95 年你都亲身经历了。你认为这个国家仍然拥有那种特殊配方，并且它会延续下去吗？或者说，我们需要做什么来保存它，确保它继续存在？

BUFFETT: We’ve got a special sauce, a secret sauce. It’s such a good secret that I don’t know what exactly it is, but I do know this, that anybody that has a choice would choose to be born in America. I mean, you know, you can pick some very small country they’re very happy that they’re there but this is there any other country that everybody’s, couple 100 years wanted to emigrate to? I mean, and it attracted some terrible people, you know, too, but, but it worked. And they had the mafias from the different groups, not not just the Italian mafia, but, I mean, it wasn’t that they were all, we had some system for picking out the wonderful people from some other countries, but it has, it has worked, but it’s worth the extremes to which it works. Don’t seem to belong to that kind of a society. I mean, if you were drawing up dreams for the ideal society, and you would have this kind of GDP per capita and everything, it wouldn’t design, it wouldn’t design the, it wouldn’t design the inheritance laws. You wouldn’t, I mean, you just do all kinds of things differently, but somehow it’s worked. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t do better at all.

BUFFETT：我们确实有一种特殊配方，一种秘密配方。这个秘密好到连我也不知道它到底是什么。但我确实知道一点：任何有选择权的人，都会选择出生在美国。我的意思是，你知道，你可以挑一些很小的国家，那里的人也很高兴自己在那里。但还有哪个国家，是几百年来一直让所有人都想移民过去的？我的意思是，它当然也吸引了一些很糟糕的人，你知道，但它还是运转起来了。不同群体里也有自己的黑帮，不只是意大利黑手党。我的意思是，并不是说我们有什么系统，能从其他国家筛选出那些最优秀的人，但这个系统，它确实运转起来了。不过，它运转到的那些极端状态，似乎又不该属于这样一个社会。我的意思是，如果你要设计一个理想社会的蓝图，而你拥有这样的人均 GDP 等等条件，你不会这样设计，你不会这样设计——你不会这样设计继承法。你不会，我的意思是，你会在很多事情上采取完全不同的做法。但不知怎么，它就是运转起来了。不过，这并不意味着我们完全不能做得更好。

QUICK: You know, Warren, there are thousands of people, shareholders and partners of yours for decades, in some cases, who are sitting out in this arena right now. And I just wonder if there’s a message you’d like to give to them, who’s been following you for years and been partners of yours for years.

QUICK：你知道，Warren，现在这个会场里坐着成千上万的人，其中有些是几十年来一直与你同行的股东和合伙人。我只是想问，对于这些多年来一直追随你、与你做了多年合伙人的人，你有没有什么话想对他们说？

BUFFETT: The number one rule I give them is just not give them the golden rule. Do unto others, I’m not a religious guy, but, I mean, nobody said it any better in a couple thousand years than that, which may be why it’s lasted to a certain degree too. I mean, more people are reading a 2000-year-old book about how to behave than anything that anybody’s coming up with lately. Now it’s got a lot of, particularly the Old Testament, it’s got different kinds of stories, to some extent, but if the whole world lived by the golden rule, it would be such a more wonderful society.

BUFFETT：我给他们的第一条规则，就是黄金法则。己所欲，施于人。我不是一个宗教人士，但我的意思是，几千年来，没有人把这件事说得比这更好，这也许正是它能在某种程度上延续至今的原因。我的意思是，相比最近任何人想出来的关于如何行事的东西，更多人仍然在读一本 2000 年前关于如何为人的书。当然，特别是《Old Testament》，里面有很多不同类型的故事，在某种程度上是这样。但如果全世界都按黄金法则生活，这个社会会美好得多。

QUICK: Do unto others as you’d have them do unto you.

QUICK：你希望别人怎样对待你，你就怎样对待别人。

BUFFETT: Yeah, and that’s true for everything from parenthood to being a boss to being, I mean, just everything in life, and it doesn’t cost you anything. In fact, it’s reflected in better behavior toward you. So I mean, it’s a very selfish sort of thing in one sense, but I’ve never seen anybody that’s unhappy that behave that way. They, and I’ve seen a lot of people in a lot of different kinds of situations.

BUFFETT：是的，而且这适用于一切，从为人父母，到做老板，到——我的意思是，生活中的一切都是如此。而且它不需要你付出任何成本。事实上，它会反映在别人对你更好的行为上。所以从某种意义上说，这也是一种非常自利的事情。但我从没见过真正按这种方式行事的人会因此不快乐。我见过很多人，也见过很多不同类型的处境。

QUICK: Warren, I want to thank you for taking this time to sit down with us today. Warren Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Greg Abel, is going to be taking the stage in just a moment, and you will see more from him in just a moment.

QUICK：Warren，非常感谢你今天抽出时间和我们坐下来交流。刚才是 Berkshire Hathaway 董事长 Warren Buffett。Greg Abel 马上就会上台，稍后你们会看到更多来自他的内容。