I.H.137.Right Business.Warren Buffett.High Inflation

1、《2015-05-02 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

43. Businesses that do best in high inflation

在高通胀中表现最好的企业

BECKY QUICK: OK. This is a question — oops, that’s not the question. Hold on.

贝基·奎克：好的。这是一个问题——哦，那不是问题。等一下。

Here it is. This is a question from John Wells, right here in Omaha, and he says, “You’ve described inflation as a gigantic corporate tapeworm. Which of Berkshire’s businesses are best suited to thrive during a period of high inflation and why? Which will suffer the most and why?”

在这里。这是来自约翰·威尔斯的问题，他就在奥马哈，他说：“你把通货膨胀形容为一个巨大的企业寄生虫。伯克希尔的哪些业务最适合在高通货膨胀时期蓬勃发展，为什么？哪些业务将遭受最大的损失，为什么？”

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, the best businesses during inflation are usually the best — they’re the businesses that you buy once and then you don’t have to keep making capital investments subsequently.

沃伦·巴菲特：是的。在通货膨胀期间，最好的企业通常是最好的——它们是你一次购买后就不需要再进行后续资本投资的企业。

So you get — you do not face the problem of continuous reinvestment involving greater and greater dollars because of inflation.

所以你就不会面临由于通货膨胀而导致的持续再投资问题，这涉及到越来越多的资金。

That’s one reason real estate, in general, is good during inflation. If you built your own house 55 years ago like Charlie did, or bought one 55 years ago like I did, it’s a one-time outlay, whereas if you’re — and you get the — you get an inflationary expansion in replacement capital without having to replace yourself.

这也是为什么房地产在通货膨胀期间通常表现良好的原因之一。如果你像Charlie一样在55年前建造了自己的房子，或者像我一样在55年前购买了一套房子，这就是一次性支出，而如果你——你会看到——你会在不需要自己替换的情况下获得通货膨胀带来的资本扩张。

And if you’ve got something that’s useful to someone else, it tends to be priced in terms of replacement value over time, so you really get the inflationary kick.

如果你拥有对别人有用的东西，它的价格往往会随着时间的推移而以替代价值来定价，因此你确实会感受到通货膨胀的影响。

Now, if you’re in a business such as the utility business or the railroad business, it just keeps eating up more and more money, and your depreciation charges are inadequate and you’re kidding yourself as to your real economic profits.

现在，如果你从事的是公用事业或铁路行业，这些行业只会不断消耗更多的钱，而你的折旧费用不足，你对自己真实的经济利润自欺欺人。

这是很严重的缺陷。

So, any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in in inflation and often it’s a poor business to be in generally.

因此，任何需要大量资本投资的企业在通货膨胀时期往往是一个不好的行业，通常来说，这也是一个不好的行业。

And the business where you buy something once — a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation.

而那些一次性购买的业务——品牌在通货膨胀期间是非常有价值的。

You know, See’s Candy built their brand many years ago. Now, we’ve had to nourish it as we’ve gone along, but the value of that brand increases during inflation, just as the value of, really, any strongly branded goods.

你知道，See’s Candy 多年前就建立了他们的品牌。现在，我们在发展过程中不得不不断滋养它，但在通货膨胀期间，那个品牌的价值会增加，就像任何强势品牌商品的价值一样。

Gillette bought the entire radio rights to the World Series in 1939. And as I remember, it cost them $100,000, and for that they got to broadcast the Yankees, I think, versus the Reds in 1939.

Gillette在1939年购买了整个世界大赛的无线电广播权。根据我记得的情况，它花费了他们10万美元，他们获得了广播1939年洋基队对红人队的比赛。

And think of the number of impressions they made on minds in 1939 dollars for $100,000, and they were getting in the minds of young guys like myself. I was eight or nine. And millions of people — and they did it in those dollars then.

想想他们在 1939 年用 10 万美元对人们心灵产生的影响，以及他们在像我这样的年轻人心中留下的印象。我那时八九岁。还有数百万人——他们当时就是这样做到的。

And, of course, if you were going to go out and try out and do — have similar impressions on millions of minds now, it’d cost a fortune. And part of that is due to inflation. Part of it’s due to other things.

当然，如果你打算出去尝试并在数百万人的心中产生类似的印象，这将花费一大笔钱。这部分是由于通货膨胀，另一部分则是由于其他因素。

But it was a great investment, which could be made in 1939 dollars that paid off, in terms of selling razors and blades in 1960 and 1970 and 1980 dollars.

但这是一个很好的投资，使用 1939 年的美元进行投资，最终在 1960 年、1970 年和 1980 年的美元中获得了回报，体现在剃须刀和刀片的销售上。

软件企业的工资费用没有真的消失，钱付了，软件更好了。

So that’s the kind of business you want to own.

所以这就是你想拥有的那种生意。

Charlie? 查理？

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, yeah, but if the inflation ever goes completely out of control, you have no idea how it’s going to end up.

查理·芒格：嗯，是的，但如果通货膨胀完全失控，你根本不知道结果会怎样。

If it weren’t for the Weimar inflation, we might never have had Adolf Hitler. It was the twosome of the great German inflation followed by the Great Depression that brought us Hitler. And think of the price that the world paid for that one.

如果不是魏玛通货膨胀，我们可能永远不会有阿道夫·希特勒。正是伟大的德国通货膨胀和随之而来的大萧条的双重影响带来了希特勒。想想世界为此付出的代价。

We don’t want inflation because it’s good for See’s Candy. (Laughter)

我们不想要通货膨胀，因为这对See’s糖果有好处。（笑声）

WARREN BUFFETT: I didn’t quite realize I was —

沃伦·巴菲特：我并没有完全意识到我正在——

CHARLIE MUNGER: No, I wasn’t criticizing you.

查理·芒格：不，我并不是在批评你。

WARREN BUFFETT: What’s good for See’s Candy is good for the United States. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：对 See's Candy 有利的事情对美国也是有利的。（笑声）

I.H.137.Right Business.Warren Buffett.High Inflation

I.H.137.Right Business.Warren Buffett.High Inflation

1、《2015-05-02 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

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