I.H.21.Warren Buffett.Easier to find bargains among stocks than IPOs

1、《2004-05-01 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

53. Easier to find bargains among stocks than IPOs

在股票中比在首次公开募股中更容易找到便宜货

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 7.

沃伦·巴菲特：第七位。

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good day. My name is Martin Krawitz. I’m a shareholder from Sydney, Australia. (Applause)

观众成员：你好。我的名字是马丁·克拉维茨。我是来自澳大利亚悉尼的股东。（掌声）

And thank you so much for some of your wonderful hospitality here. We’ve had a chance to get on some of Omaha’s 65 golf courses, and it’s just great being in the second-best country in the world. (Laughter)

非常感谢你们的热情款待。我们有机会去体验了奥马哈的 65 个高尔夫球场中的一些，能在世界上第二好的国家真是太棒了。（笑声）

My question to you, sir, is regarding two IPOs. We had one of the authors about a book on yourself visit us in Sydney last year, and apparently you dislike IPOs.

我对您的问题是关于两个 IPO 的。去年，我们有一本关于您的书的作者之一来悉尼拜访我们，显然您不喜欢 IPO。

My question is, there are some really poor businesses that try and get passed off, but there are some good ones. There’s some government privatizations, or decentralizations, the demographics of baby boomers, and we have some friends wanted to exit some really good businesses.

我的问题是，虽然有一些确实很糟糕的企业试图通过IPO，但也有一些好的公司，比如一些政府的私有化或去中心化，以及一些朋友希望退出的一些很好的企业。

Could we as investors, and Berkshire Hathaway, not apply some of your disciplines to look at investing in some of these?

作为投资者，我们和伯克希尔哈撒韦，能否运用您的一些原则来考虑投资其中的一些？

And finally, would your answer be different in its applicability to Berkshire Hathaway as a company, as opposed to us as investors? Thank you, sir.

最后，您对伯克希尔哈撒韦作为公司和我们作为投资者的回答是否会有所不同？谢谢您，先生。

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie?

沃伦·巴菲特：查理？

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, the first question, is it entirely possible that you could use our mental models to find good things to buy among IPOs, the answer is sure.

查理·芒格：嗯，第一个问题是，是否完全有可能使用我们的思维模型在首次公开募股中找到值得购买的好东西，答案是肯定的。

There are a zillion IPOs every year. And buried in those IPOs, I’m sure there are a few cinches that a really intelligent person could find and pounce on. So, welcome. On the —

每年都有无数的 IPO。在这些 IPO 中，我相信一定有一些很容易被真正聪明的人发现并抓住的机会。所以，欢迎。在——

But the average person buying IPOs is going to get creamed.

但是，购买 IPO 的普通人将会遭受重创。

So if you’re talented enough, why sure, that will work. The second question, I forget.

所以如果你足够有才华，当然，那会奏效。第二个问题，我忘了。

WARREN BUFFETT: About the government offering (inaudible).

沃伦·巴菲特：关于政府提供的（听不清）。

CHARLIE MUNGER: About government spin-offs?

查理·芒格：关于政府剥离？

WARREN BUFFETT: Give him the spotlight again. There he is.

沃伦·巴菲特：再给他聚光灯。他在那儿。

CHARLIE MUNGER: What was the second question?

查理·芒格：第二个问题是什么？

AUDIENCE MEMBER: It was just would the attitude of Berkshire Hathaway be different if it was opposed to investors?

听众成员：只是伯克希尔哈撒韦的态度是否会与投资者不同。

WARREN BUFFETT: Oh. 沃伦·巴菲特：哦。

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you.

观众成员：谢谢。

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, because the IPOs are normally small enough, so that they won’t work for us, or they’re high tech, where we couldn’t understand them. And so, by and large, if Warren is looking at them, why, I don’t know about it. (Laughter)

查理·芒格：是的，因为IPO通常规模较小，所以不适合我们，或者是高科技的，我们可能无法理解。因此，总体而言，如果沃伦正在关注这些，我就不知道了。（笑声）

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, I mentioned earlier how you — an auction market, prevailing in the stock market, will offer up extraordinary bargains sometimes, because somebody will sell a half a percent, or one percent of a company at a price that may be a quarter of what it’s worth, whereas in negotiated deals, you don’t get that.

沃伦·巴菲特：是的，我之前提到过，拍卖市场在股市中有时会提供极好的交易机会，因为有人会以可能是其价值四分之一的价格出售公司百分之零点五或百分之一的股份，而在协商交易中，你不会得到这样的机会。

An IPO situation more closely approximates a negotiated deal. I mean, the seller decides when to come to market in most cases. And they don’t pick a time necessarily that’s good for you. So, it has —

IPO 情况更接近于协商交易。我的意思是，在大多数情况下，卖方决定何时进入市场。而且他们不一定会选择对你有利的时机。所以，它有——

I think it’s way less likely that, in scanning a list of a hundred securities that are trading in the auction market, well, in the — a hundred IPOs, if you scan a hundred IPOs, you’re going to come up with something cheaper than scanning a hundred companies that are already trading in the auction market.

我认为，在扫描拍卖市场中交易的一百种证券的列表时，嗯，在——一百个 IPO 中，如果你扫描一百个 IPO，你找到比扫描已经在拍卖市场中交易的一百家公司更便宜的东西的可能性要小得多。

It is more of a negotiated sale. And negotiated transactions are very hard to get bargains. If you take the houses in Omaha, you know, somebody that lives next door to somebody who sold their house for 80,000 or — dollars, and their house is more or less comparable, they’re not going to sell it for 50.

这更像是一种协商销售。而协商交易很难获得便宜货。如果你看看奥马哈的房子，你知道，有人住在隔壁，刚卖掉他们的房子，价格是 80,000 美元或——美元，而他们的房子差不多是可比的，他们不会以 50,000 美元的价格出售。

It just doesn’t happen. People are — it’s too important an asset, and they’re cognizant of what it brings — what is being brought for similar properties. That’s what happens in negotiated sales.

这根本不会发生。人们——这是一个太重要的资产，他们意识到它带来的价值——类似物业带来的价值。这就是在协商销售中发生的情况。

Now if, on the other hand, there were some — a whole bunch of entities that owned one percent of each house in Omaha, and you had an auction market on those one percentage points, they might sell at damn near anything. And occasionally, they sell at crazy prices.

现在，另一方面，如果有一些——一大堆实体各自拥有奥马哈每栋房子百分之一的股份，并且你在这些百分之一的股份上有一个拍卖市场，它们可能会以几乎任何价格出售。有时，它们会以疯狂的价格出售。

So you’re way — in my view — you’re way more likely to get incredible bargains in the — in an auction market. It’s just the nature of things.

所以在我看来，你在拍卖市场中更有可能获得难以置信的便宜货。这就是事情的本质。

And the IPO is closer — sometimes there will be IPOs in terrible markets, and they may come very cheap. But by and large, that is not when IPOs come. They come when the seller thinks that the market is ready for them.

IPO情况更接近——有时在糟糕的市场中也会有 IPO 出现，而且它们可能会非常便宜。但总的来说，这并不是 IPO 出现的时机。它们出现的时机是当卖方认为市场已经为它们做好准备时。

And they come with an informed seller thinking it’s a pretty good time to go public. And, you know, you’ll make better buys, in my view, in an auction market.

他们带着一个消息灵通的卖家来，认为现在是上市的好时机。而且，你知道，在我看来，你会在拍卖市场上做出更好的购买。

I.H.21.Warren Buffett.Easier to find bargains among stocks than IPOs

I.H.21.Warren Buffett.Easier to find bargains among stocks than IPOs

1、《2004-05-01 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

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