I.H.23.Warren Buffett.GDP

Refer To：《2003-05-03 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》。

22. “Desirable” GDP shows how economy affects households

“理想” GDP 显示经济如何影响家庭

WARREN BUFFETT: One of the things you have to think about — and people don’t — they don’t focus on this very much. But you read about GDP, and this is one reason I think — I really think we’ve been in a recession now — not a huge one, but — or not a violent one — but for over two years.

沃伦·巴菲特：你必须考虑的一件事——而人们没有——他们对此并不太关注。但是你读到关于 GDP 的内容，这就是我认为——我真的认为我们现在已经处于衰退中——不是一个巨大的衰退，但——或者不是一个剧烈的衰退——但已经超过两年了。

When the government talks about GDP, A, they talk about GDP, we’ll say, going up 2 percent. But of course, the population of the country, you know, goes up something over 1 percent per year. So it’s per capita GDP that counts. And that has gone very close to no place.

当政府谈论 GDP 时，他们会说 GDP 增长了 2%。但当然，你知道，国家的人口每年增长超过 1%。所以重要的是人均 GDP。而人均 GDP 几乎没有增长。

But the more important factor, to some extent, is that GDP counts the people that, you know, have you take off your shoes when you go to get on an airplane. You know, it counts extra police. It counts all of these things that don’t really translate into — they translate into goods and services that the country wants, but they are not goods and services — I mean, they’re goods and services we wish we didn’t want. And they — all of that counts the same way.

但更重要的因素是，GDP计算了那些在你上飞机时让你脱鞋子的人。这些额外的警察、各种安全措施等等，虽然它们确实转化为国家想要的商品和服务，但它们并不是我们希望拥有的商品和服务。这些所有的事情都以相同的方式计算。

If there’s a — 20 guards at the airport instead of three guards, that goes into GDP. But does it make you feel any better about how you’re spending your paycheck every month? Probably not.

如果机场有 20 名警卫而不是 3 名警卫，那就算入 GDP。但这会让你对每个月的薪水支出感觉更好吗？可能不会。

And when you get into a war, for example, if you drop planes into the ocean, you know, that’s part of GDP, the cost of manufacturing those planes. But it doesn’t do anything for you at your house.

再比如，打仗时，如果你把飞机扔进海里，那也是GDP的一部分，制造这些飞机的成本也算入GDP。但这对你家里并没有任何帮助。

So in terms of what I would call “desirable GDP,” I think my guess is that, on a per capita basis, that has gone no place in the last few years as we’ve diverted resources to other things that don’t really translate to what goes into your house or onto your table.

因此，就我所称的“理想 GDP”而言，我猜想，按人均计算，过去几年中这一指标并没有增长，因为我们将资源转移到了其他并不真正转化为你家中或餐桌上的东西上。

And the quality of GDP is something that is not really talked about very much when you pick up the economic reports every day.

GDP 的质量是一个在每天阅读经济报告时并没有被广泛讨论的话题。

Charlie? 查理？

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, and the type of figures you gave us about inequality tend to obscure a basic and important fact. If the same families were permanently at the top of the economic heap there would be huge resentments about current inequality.

查理·芒格：是的，你给我们的有关不平等的数字往往掩盖了一个基本而重要的事实。如果同一家族一直处于经济顶端，人们对目前的收入不平等会有巨大的怨恨。

But when the coupon clippers and the DuPont family go down, and somebody creates something like Pampered Chef and comes up, in a real sense, something wonderful is happening in terms of equality, even though at the end it looks like there’s been no progress.

但当旧的富裕家族（如古董票务者或杜邦家族）衰落时，新的企业（如Pampered Chef）崛起，从某种意义上说，这在平等方面发生了一些美好的事情，即使从表面上看似乎没有任何进展。

That much churn makes people think the whole system is fairer. (Applause)

这种变化让人们觉得整个系统更公平。（掌声）

WARREN BUFFETT: We prefer not to be part of the churn, though, actually, at this point, I think. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：不过，实际上，我认为在这一点上我们更愿意不参与这种变化。（笑声）

We were much more in favor of churn 30 or 40 years ago. (Laughter)

30 或 40 年前，我们更支持这种变化。（笑声）

I.H.23.Warren Buffett.GDP

I.H.23.Warren Buffett.GDP

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