I.H.33.Warren Buffett.The “aha” moment

1、《2001-04-28 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

57. How Buffett knows when he’s had a “big idea”

巴菲特如何判断自己有了一个“大想法”

WARREN BUFFETT: Now, moving onto the big ideas, you know when you’ve got a big idea. And I can’t tell you, you know, exactly what happens within your nervous system or brain at that time.

沃伦·巴菲特：现在来说说“大想法”，当你有一个大想法时，你会知道的。我无法确切告诉你，在那一刻你的神经系统或大脑里发生了什么。

But we’ve had relatively few big ideas, good ideas, over the years. I don’t know how many you think we’ve had in aggregate, probably, career, maybe 25 each or something?

但多年来，我们有的“大想法”或“好想法”相对较少。我不知道你认为我们一生中总共有多少，也许每人有 25 个左右？

CHARLIE MUNGER: If you took the top 15 out of Berkshire Hathaway, most of you people wouldn’t be here. (Laughter)

查理·芒格：如果你从伯克希尔·哈撒韦的历史中去掉前 15 个想法，你们大多数人今天就不会在这里了。（笑声）

So, roughly one every two years.

所以，差不多每两年一个。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, one every year or two. And sometimes there’ll be a bunch of them, like in 1973 and -4. But the problem is, for us is that big, now, really means big. I mean, it has to be billions of dollars to move the needle very much at Berkshire.

沃伦·巴菲特：是的，大概每一到两年一个。有时会有一系列的大想法，比如在 1973 和 1974 年。但对我们来说，问题是现在“大”真的意味着非常大。我的意思是，它必须达到数十亿美元才能显著影响伯克希尔的表现。

But I would say that when I would turn those pages, 50 years ago in the Moody’s Manuals, I would know when I hit a big idea. I’ve got half a dozen of them that I keep the Xeroxes from those reports around from 50 years ago just because it was so obvious that they just — they were incredible. And that happens every now and then.

但我想说的是，50 年前，当我翻阅《穆迪手册》的页面时，我知道自己遇到了一个“大想法”。有六七个这样的想法，我还保留着那些报告的复印件，就因为它们当时显而易见——它们太了不起了。而这种情况偶尔会发生。

When I met Lorimer Davidson, you know, in end of January, 1951, and he spent four hours or five hours with me explaining GEICO, I knew it was a big idea.

1951 年 1 月底，当我见到洛里默·戴维森时，他花了四五个小时向我解释 GEICO，我知道那是一个“大想法”。

Eight months later, no, probably 10 months later, I wrote an article for The Commercial and Financial Chronicle on “The Security I Like Best.” It was a big idea.

八个月后，不，可能是十个月后，我为《商业与金融年鉴》写了一篇题为《我最喜欢的证券》的文章。那是一个“大想法”。

When I found Western Insurance Securities, I knew it was a big idea.

当我发现 Western Insurance Securities 时，我知道那是一个“大想法”。

I couldn’t put billion — millions — of dollars into it, but I didn’t have millions so it didn’t make any difference.

我当时无法投入数百万或数十亿美元，但因为我也没有这么多钱，所以这并不重要。

And I — we’ve seen things subsequently. And we’ll see, you know. If we have a normal lifespan, we’ll see a few more before we get done, but I can’t tell you that —exactly how —

而且我们后来还看到了一些事情。我们会继续看到，如果我们有正常的寿命，在结束之前我们可能还会看到几个，但我无法确切告诉你——具体如何——

I can’t tell you exactly what transpires in my mind that says, you know, flashes a neon sign up that says, “This is a big idea.”

我无法确切告诉你，在我的脑海里发生了什么，会让我看到“这是一个大想法”的霓虹灯在闪烁。

What happens with you, Charlie?

查理，你会怎么判断？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Actually, one of my — I’ve have a real system. (Laughter)

事实上，我有一个真正的系统。（笑声）

My idea of a truly big idea is, one I get it and I call Charlie and he only says no, rather than, “That’s the worst idea I’ve ever heard of.” But if he just says no, it’s a hell of an idea.

我对“大想法”的定义是，当我想到一个想法并打电话给查理时，他只说“不”，而不是说“这是我听过最糟糕的主意”。但如果他只是说“不”，那就说明这是一个了不起的想法。

CHARLIE MUNGER: You know, the game in our kind of life is being able to recognize a good idea when you rarely get it, and — or when it rarely is presented to you. And I think that’s something you have to prepare for over a long period.

查理·芒格：你知道，我们这种人生的关键在于，当一个好想法难得出现时，能够认出它，或者当它难得被展示给你时能够把握住。我认为，这是需要长期准备的事情。

What is the old saying? That opportunity comes to the prepared mind? And I don’t think you can teach people in two minutes how to have a prepared mind. But that’s the game.

有句老话怎么说的来着？机会青睐有准备的人？我不认为你能在两分钟内教会人们如何拥有一颗准备好的头脑。但这就是游戏规则。

WARREN BUFFETT: Things we learned 40 years ago, though, will help and recognize the next big idea.

沃伦·巴菲特：然而，我们40年前学到的东西会帮助我们识别下一个“大想法”。

CHARLIE MUNGER: And on opportunity costs, going back to that, the current freshman economics text, which is sweeping the country, has right in practically the first page. And it says, “All intelligent people should think primarily in terms of opportunity cost.” And that’s obviously correct.

查理·芒格：说到机会成本，回到这个问题，目前席卷全国的经济学新生教材几乎在第一页就写着，“所有聪明人都应该主要以机会成本的角度思考问题。” 这显然是正确的。

But it’s very hard to teach business based on opportunity cost. It’s much easier to teach the capital assets pricing model where you could just punch in numbers and out come numbers. And therefore, people teach what is easy to teach, instead of what is correct to teach.

但基于机会成本来教授商业非常困难。教授资本资产定价模型要容易得多，因为你只需输入数字，就能得出结果。因此，人们倾向于教授那些容易教授的内容，而不是那些正确的内容。

It reminds me of Einstein’s famous saying. He says, “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no more simple.”

这让我想起爱因斯坦的名言。他说：“一切应该尽可能简单，但不要过于简单。”

WARREN BUFFETT: Write that down. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：把这记下来吧。（笑声）

2、《2022-05-02 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

WARREN BUFFETT: And you can say, why would it take guys that long to learn?

WARREN BUFFETT：你可以说，为什么要花那么长时间才能学会？

And — well, we’ve got a few minutes before lunch. We should — let’s address that problem. Because I did bring something along on that.

我们还有几分钟才吃午饭。我们应该--让我们来解决这个问题。因为我确实带了一些关于这个问题的东西。

I started buying stocks when I was 11. I’d been reading every book in the library on it. I loved it. My dad loved — you know, it was his business and I’d get to go down to his office and I’d read the books down there.

我从 11 岁开始买股票。我阅读了图书馆里所有关于股票的书。我很喜欢。我爸爸喜欢--你知道，这是他的生意，我可以去他的办公室，在那里看书。

And I saved the money, and finally, by the time I was 11, I could buy a stock. And I could tell you, at that time — I went to New York Stock Exchange when I was nine. My dad took us to New York — each kid to New York once — and he took me, and I went to the New York Stock Exchange, and I was in awe of it.

我把钱存起来，终于，在我 11 岁的时候，我可以买股票了。我可以告诉你，那时候--我九岁的时候去了纽约证券交易所。我爸爸带我们去纽约--每个孩子都去纽约一次--他带着我，我去了纽约证券交易所，我对它充满了敬畏。

I could tell you how the specialist system worked, and the odd lot arrangements, and I could tell you the history of finance, and all of these things.

我可以告诉你专家系统是如何运作的，以及零散股票安排，我还可以告诉你金融的历史，以及所有这些事情。

And then I got very interested in technical analysis, and charted stocks, and did all kinds of crazy things. Hours and hours and hours. And saved money to buy other stocks. And tried shorting. And I just did everything.

然后，我对技术分析产生了浓厚的兴趣，绘制股票图表，做各种疯狂的事情。一做就是几个小时，攒钱买其他股票，还尝试做空，我什么都做。

And then, when I was either 19 or 20, and I can’t remember exactly where I did it or something, I picked up a book someplace.

然后，在我 19 岁或 20 岁的时候，我记不清是在哪里还是什么地方，我在某个地方捡到了一本书。

It wasn’t a textbook at school, but it was in Lincoln, Nebraska. And I — you know, I looked at this book, and I saw one paragraph, and it told me I’d been doing everything wrong. (Laughs)

这不是学校的教科书，但它在内布拉斯加州的林肯市，我--你知道，我看着这本书，看到一段话，它告诉我，我做的一切都是错的。（笑）

I just had the whole approach wrong.

我只是整个方法都错了。

I thought I was in the business of trying to pick stocks that would go up.

我以为我的工作就是挑选会上涨的股票。

And, in one paragraph, I saw that that was totally foolish.

而且，在一个段落中，我发现这完全是愚蠢的。

And I’ve brought something that is really interesting. Let’s put up — what did we call this chart?

我带来了一些非常有趣的东西。我们把这个图表叫做什么？

Oh, here we are, yeah.

我们到了

Let’s put up [slide] illusion one. Done. There we have it.

让我们放上 [幻灯片] 幻象一。好了好了

You know, now if you look at that, some people will see two faces, some people will see a vase, and some people will look a long time and only see two faces. But the mind flips from one side to another, and there’s some name for it that — they call it “ambiguous illusions” or something of the sort.

你知道，现在如果你看这个，有些人会看到两张脸，有些人会看到一个花瓶，有些人会看很久却只看到两张脸。但大脑会从一边翻到另一边，有一种叫法--他们称之为 "模糊幻觉 "或诸如此类的东西。

There’s other things that talk about aha moments — or, in the old comic strips with Popeye, Wimpy would have a little balloon over his head, and the lightbulb would go on.

还有其他关于 "啊哈时刻 "的内容--或者，在《大力水手》（Popeye）的老连环画中，Wimpy 头顶上会有一个小气球，然后灯泡就会亮起来。

There’s this point where all of a sudden you see something you haven’t seen. Well, it took me — I had an illusion that I was looking at, we’ll say in that one, two faces.

突然间，你会看到你从未见过的东西。我有一种错觉，我看到了两张脸。

Go to the — let’s go to the one labeled two.

转到--让我们转到标号为 2 的那个。

And if you’re looking at it from one side, it looks like a rabbit, and if you look the other way, it looks like you’re looking at a duck.

如果你从一边看，它就像一只兔子，如果你从另一边看，它就像一只鸭子。

And, you know, the mind is a very funny place.

而且，你知道，思想是一个非常有趣的地方。

And I think people call it an apperceptive mass, when you have all kinds of things going on in your mind. And they go on for years, and they sit there and get lost (laughs).

我想人们把它叫做 "apperceptive mass"，当你的脑海中有各种各样的事情发生的时候。它们会持续数年，坐在那里，迷失方向（笑）。

原来认为是看不懂，apperceptive masses的理论认为看不到，正确的意识被错误意识全面压制，放在眼面前也是看不到的。

统觉团是心理学家Theodor Lipps提出的概念，赫尔巴特认为人类大脑中存在大量思想意识，思想意识之间相互争夺主导地位，类似的思想意识汇聚到一起形成思想意识的统觉团，处于主导地位的统觉团排斥与其不相容的思想意识，将其抑制于潜意识，处于潜意识中的思想意识等待与其类似的思想意识进入大脑形成自己的统觉团，伺机争夺主导地位。

And then, all of a sudden, you see something different than what you were seeing before.

然后，突然间，你看到了与之前不同的东西。

Now, it took me, in stocks, which I was intensely interested in, and I had a decent IQ, and I was reading and thinking, you know. And it was important to me to make some money on it. I had every motivation in the world. And then I read a chapter — I read a paragraph, actually — in chapter 8, I think it was, of the Intelligent Investor, and it told me that I wasn’t looking at the duck, I was looking, you know — now it was the rabbit — whatever it may be.

现在，我对股票产生了浓厚的兴趣，我的智商还不错，我在阅读和思考，你知道的。赚点钱对我来说很重要，我有世界上所有的动力。然后我读了一章--实际上是读了一段--在《聪明的投资者》的第 8 章，我想是第 8 章，它告诉我，我看的不是鸭子，我看的是，你知道--现在是兔子--不管它是什么。

And whether you call it a lightbulb” — whether you call it, you know, a moment of truth — whatever it may be — and that happened to me in Lincoln. I mean, it changed my life.

不管你把它称作 "电灯泡"--还是你把它称作，你知道，真理的时刻--不管它是什么--在林肯，它发生在我身上。我的意思是，它改变了我的生活。

If I hadn’t read that book, I don’t know how long I would have gone on looking for head-and-shoulders formations, and 200-day moving averages, and the odd lot ratios, and a zillion things. And I love that kind of stuff. Except it was the wrong stuff I was looking at.

如果我没有读过那本书，我不知道自己还要寻找头肩底形态、200 日移动平均线、奇数手比率等数不清的东西多久。我喜欢这些东西。只是我看错了东西。

And I’ve had that happen — and Charlie’s had it happen, I’m sure. It happens a few times in your life. And all of a sudden, you see something important that, why in the hell didn’t I see this in the first place? Maybe it’s a week ago, maybe it’s a year ago, maybe it’s five years ago.

我遇到过这种情况--我相信查理也遇到过。在你的一生中，这种情况会发生几次。突然间，你看到了一些重要的东西，为什么我一开始没有看到呢？也许是一周前，也许是一年前，也许是五年前。

《富爸爸穷爸爸》有完全相同的描述，如果能看到就有机会反复看到。

你们会看到别人看不见的东西。机会就摆在人们面前，但大多数人从来看不到这些机会，因为他们忙着追求金钱和安定，所以只能得到这些。如果你们能看到一个机会，就注定你们会在一生中不断地发现机会。

Maybe it’s learning how to get along with people, you know. I mean, whether, actually, it’s better to be, you know, kind, or not, you know.

也许是学习如何与人相处，你知道的。我的意思是，实际上，是仁慈好，还是不仁慈好，你知道的。

Or whether —I mean, they’re just — learning how — if you want the world to love you, what you have to do, or whatever.

或者，他们只是在学习如何--如果你想让世界爱上你，你必须做什么，或者其他什么。

You know it when you see it, but you didn’t see it for ten years before.

当你看到它时，你就知道它的存在，但你十年前都没有看到它。

And I don’t know whether Charlie’s got some thoughts on that or not, but that’s happened in a few situations in business, where I’ve looked at a company for a decade. And then there’s something that just all gets rearranged in your mind, and, you know, you can say, well, why didn’t I see this five years ago?

我不知道查理是否有这方面的想法，但在生意场上，这种情况时有发生，我看一家公司看了十年。然后，有些东西就会在你的脑海中重新排列，你知道，你可以说，好吧，为什么我五年前没有看到这一点？

But I’ve had it happen a few times, obviously — and everybody here has — just in different areas of their lives.

但我也遇到过几次这样的情况，很明显，这里的每个人都遇到过，只是在他们生活的不同领域。

And you think, how could I have been so stupid?

你会想，我怎么会这么蠢？

Well, that’s what Charlie’s — when he was in the law practice, he had a partner, Roy Tolles. And every smart guy that would get in trouble — usually it was guys, and usually it was with women — and, you know, they’d come into the office, and they’d look, you know, down-faced and everything. And they’d say, it seemed like a good idea at the time, you know. I mean — (Laughter)

查理在做律师的时候他有个合伙人叫罗伊-托尔斯，每个惹上麻烦的聪明人，通常都是男人，通常都是因为女人，他们走进办公室他们会说，这在当时看来是个好主意，你知道的。我是说

华尔街日报万字长文报道特朗普和艳星的故事细节，参考：《How a Mysterious Tip Led to Trump Conviction》，大多数人都是有缺陷的，承认和不承认是两套不一样的系统。

And their lives unraveled, you know, in many cases.

在很多情况下，他们的生活都被打乱了。

So, there is that apperceptive mass that’s sitting in there inside somehow, and every now and then it produces some insight.

因此，有一个感知器不知何故就在里面，时不时地会产生一些洞察力。

It’s better, actually, if it produces insight into your behavior than whether it produces insight to make money.

实际上，如果能对你的行为产生洞察力，比是否能产生赚钱的洞察力更好。

And some people never get it. And they wonder why — you know, whether their kids hate them, or whether there’s nobody in the world that would give a damn whether they live or die.

而有些人却永远无法理解。他们不知道为什么--你知道，他们的孩子会不会恨他们，或者这个世界上有没有人会在乎他们的死活。

In fact, they prefer they die because they’ve been courting them for their art collection, or whatever it may be. It’s just —

事实上，他们宁愿死，因为他们一直在追求他们的艺术收藏，或者其他什么东西。只是--

这句话明显有具体的指向，为什么没有投资PGR？

Charlie would say, you know, just write your obituary and reverse engineer it.

查理会说，你知道，只要写下你的讣告，然后逆向工程就可以了。

And not a crazy idea, but, Charlie, I don’t know. What do you know about apperceptive masses? Which are (laughs) you know, optical illusions.

也不是什么疯狂的想法，但是，查理，我不知道你对apperceptive masses了解多少？就是（笑）你知道的，视错觉。

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I know that that’s the way the brain works. And that it’s easy to get it wrong. And part of the trick is to get so you correct your own mistakes. And we’ve done a lot of that.

CHARLIE MUNGER:我知道大脑就是这样工作的。而且很容易出错诀，窍门之一就是纠正自己的错误，我们已经做了很多了。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Frequently way too late.

经常为时已晚。

3、《2024-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

But there is something that comes along that takes a whole bunch of observations that you’ve made and knowledge you have and then crystallizes your thinking into action.

但是，有一种东西会把你的观察结果和你所掌握的知识汇集在一起，然后把你的想法具体化为行动。

Big action in the case of Apple. And there actually is something, which I don’t mean to be mysterious, but I really can’t talk about, but it was perfectly legal, I’m sure, you know, that. It just happened to be something that entered the picture that took all the other observations. And I guess my mind reached what they call apperceptive mass, which I really don’t know anything about, but I know the phenomenon when I experience it. And that is, we saw something that I felt was, well, enormously enterprise.

在苹果案件中有大动作。实际上有些事，我并不是故意神秘，但我真的不能谈论，但我确定那是完全合理的，你知道的。这只是恰好出现在画面中的某件事，它占据了所有其他的注意力。我想我的思绪达到了他们所说的apperceptive mass，我对此并不了解，但当我经历它时，我知道这种现象。那就是，我们看到了我觉得，嗯，非常巨大的企业。

。。。

Charlie and me, and there is an aspect of knowing a whole lot and having a whole lot of experiences and then seeing something that turns on the light bulb.

查理和我想出了一个生意，其中有一个方面是，我们知道了很多事情，有了很多经历，然后看到了一些事情，点亮了灯泡。

And that will continue to happen. And I hope it happens a few times to you, but you can’t make it happen tomorrow, but you can prepare yourself for it happening tomorrow, and it will happen sometimes.

这种情况还会继续发生，我希望你能遇到几次这样的事，但你无法让它明天就发生，但你可以为明天发生的事做好准备，它有时会发生。

I.H.33.Warren Buffett.The “aha” moment

I.H.33.Warren Buffett.The “aha” moment

1、《2001-04-28 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

2、《2022-05-02 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

3、《2024-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

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