I.H.37.Warren Buffett.Autonomous driving

1、《2024-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

Becky Quick: This question’s for Warren and Ajit. It’s from Jeff Oyster. As a Berkshire and Tesla shareholder, I would like to hear your thoughts on the potential financial effects to GEICO, assuming Elon Musk delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. On Tesla’s most recent earnings call, Elon said, if you’ve got, at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has, let’s say, half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% versus human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting GEICO’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?

贝基-奎克：这个问题是问沃伦和阿吉特的。来自杰夫-奥斯特（Jeff Oyster）。作为伯克希尔公司和特斯拉公司的股东，我想听听你们对假设埃隆-马斯克实现完全自动驾驶目标可能对 GEICO 造成的财务影响的看法。在特斯拉最近的财报电话会议上，埃隆说，如果你有统计意义上的大量数据，确凿地表明自动驾驶汽车的事故率，比方说，只有人类驾驶汽车的一半，我认为这是难以忽视的。假设伊隆成功地将事故率降低了 50%，那么汽车保险费率不就会下降，以反映承保风险的降低，从而对 GEICO 的收入和浮存金产生不利影响吗？

Warren Buffett: Well, yeah. Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be three accidents in the United States next year for some crazy reason that anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs. But that’s been harder to do than people have done before. But obviously. But if it really happens, the figures will show it, and our data will show it, and the prices will come down. There have been a lot of people talk about doing that in the past.

沃伦-巴菲特嗯，是的。那我们就举一个极端的例子。假设明年美国只发生三起交通事故，出于某种疯狂的原因，只要能减少事故，就能降低成本。但这比人们以前做的要难得多。但很明显但如果真的发生了，数据就会显示出来，我们的数据也会显示出来，价格就会下降。过去有很多人说要这样做。

I mean, General Motors used to be very big in the insurance business, and when Uber first started, they used some firm, which now is, I think Ajit will confirm they’re close to bankruptcy now, aren’t they? Because of taking things on at the wrong prices. Is that true?

我的意思是，通用汽车公司曾经在保险业务方面做得很大，Uber 刚起步的时候，他们也使用了一些公司，现在，我想 Ajit 会证实，他们已经接近破产了，不是吗？因为以错误的价格承接了一些业务。是真的吗？

Ajit: Yep. Yeah. Yeah. 阿吉特Yep.Yeah.Yeah.

Warren Buffett: Insurance always looks easier than it is, and it’s so much fun because you get the money at the start, you know, and then you find out whether you’ve done something stupid later on. But it’s a very tempting business when somebody hands you money and you hand them a little piece of paper. But really knowing whether you’re - I mean, if accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume. But, you know, but for society is what we’re looking for so far.

沃伦-巴菲特：保险看起来总是比实际容易，而且非常有趣，因为你一开始就能拿到钱，你知道，后来你就会发现自己是否做了蠢事。但是，当有人把钱交给你，你把一张小纸片交给他们时，这是一个非常诱人的生意。但真正要知道你是否--我的意思是，如果事故减少 50%，对社会是好事，对保险公司的业务量也是坏事。但是，你知道，对社会有利才是我们目前所追求的。

You might find it kind of interesting. I mean, the number of people killed per 100 million passenger miles driven. I think it actually, when I was young, it was like 15, but even post world war two, it only fell like seven or thereabouts and Ralph Nader probably has done more for the american consumer than just about anybody in history because that seven or six has now come down to under two. And I don’t think it would have come down that way without him. There have been some kind of fluke figures of what people did during the pandemic, which are quite interesting because they, they didn’t drive immediately, they didn’t drive as many miles, but they drove more dangerously, didn’t they? Is that right, Ajit?

您可能会觉得这很有趣。我是说，每10亿乘客行驶里程的死亡人数。我认为实际上，当我年轻的时候，这个数字是15，但即使在二战后，这个数字也只下降到了大约7。拉尔夫·纳德可能为美国消费者做得比历史上任何人都多，因为那个7或6现在已经降到了不到2。如果没有他，我认为这个数字不会这样下降。在疫情期间，人们的行为有一些偶然的数据，这非常有趣，因为他们没有立即开车，他们没有行驶那么多里程，但他们开车更加危险，对吗，Ajit？

Ajit Jain: Yeah. Yeah. So the point I want to make in terms of Tesla and the fact that they feel that because of their technology, the number of accidents do come down, and that is certainly provable. But I think what needs to be factored in as well is the repair cost of each one of these accidents has skyrocketed. So if you multiply the number of accidents times the cost of each accident, I’m not sure that total number has come down as much as Tesla would like us to believe. Tesla has been toying with the idea of writing insurance directly or indirectly. And so far it hasn’t really sort of been much of a success. Time will tell. But I think, you know, automation just shifts a lot of the expense from the operator to the equipment provider.

Ajit Jain: 是的。是的。我想表达的关于特斯拉的观点是，他们认为由于他们的技术，事故数量确实减少了，这当然是可以证明的。但我认为也需要考虑的是，每一起事故的修理成本已经飙升。所以如果你将事故数量乘以每起事故的成本，我不确定那个总数是否像特斯拉希望我们相信的那样下降了很多。特斯拉一直在尝试直接或间接地撰写保险。到目前为止，这并没有真正取得太大成功。时间会告诉我们答案。但我认为，自动化只是将很多费用从操作者转移到了设备提供商那里。

一直是这个看法，值得怀疑的看法。

I.H.37.Warren Buffett.Autonomous driving

I.H.37.Warren Buffett.Autonomous driving

1、《2024-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

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