I.H.55.Steve Jobs.Technology Windows

I.H.55.Steve Jobs.Technology Windows

1、《1992 Steve Jobs.MIT Distinguished Speaker Series》

What technological advances do you see coming over the next five to 10 years? and how is NeXTSTEP structured to take advantage of those?
未来五到十年内你认为会有哪些技术进步?NeXTSTEP 是如何构建以利用这些进步的?

I'll give you a global answer. Then we can descend into some details. I believe that you can use the concept of technology windows opening, and then eventually closing. And what I mean by that is, enough technology, usually from fairly diverse places, comes together, and makes something that's a quantum leap forward possible.
我会给你一个总体的回答。然后我们可以深入一些细节。我相信你可以使用技术窗口开启然后最终关闭的概念。我的意思是,足够的技术,通常来自相当多样化的地方,汇聚在一起,使得某种飞跃成为可能。

And it doesn't come out of nowhere. If you poke around the labs, and you hang around the Media Lab here at MIT and other places, you can, kind of, get a feel for some of those things. And usually, they're not quite possible. But, all of a sudden, you start to sense things coming together, and the planets lining up, to where this is now possible, or barely possible. And a window opens up.
这并不是凭空而来的。如果你在实验室里四处探查,或者在麻省理工学院的媒体实验室和其他地方逗留,你可以大致感受到其中的一些东西。通常来说,这些东西并不是完全可行的。但突然间,你开始感觉到事情在逐渐成形,行星开始对齐,这一切变得可能,或者勉强可能。然后,一个窗口打开了。

And it usually takes around— my experience anyway, my life has been, it takes around five years to create a commercial product that takes advantage of that technical window opening up.
通常需要大约——根据我的经验,我的生活是,创造一个利用那个技术窗口开放的商业产品大约需要五年。

Sometimes you start before the window is quite open. And you can't get through it. And you push it up. And you push it up. Sometimes it just takes a lot of work, took that long with the Apple II, took that long with the Mac. You know, it took a Lisa along the way, $100 million. It takes a while. It's a expensive to push those windows open.
有时候你在窗口还没完全打开的时候就开始了。你无法通过它。你不断地推它。你不断地推它。有时候这确实需要很多努力,Apple II 花了那么长时间,Mac 也花了那么长时间。你知道,Lisa 也花了 1 亿美元。需要一段时间。推开这些窗口是很昂贵的。

And in our case, you know, our first product failed. We came out with this cube. And we sold 10,000 of them. Why? Because we weren't quite there yet. And we made some mistakes along the way. And we had to course correct.
在我们的案例中,你知道,我们的第一个产品失败了。我们推出了这个立方体。我们卖出了 10,000 个。为什么?因为我们还没有完全准备好。在这个过程中我们犯了一些错误。我们不得不进行调整。

You know, Macintosh was a course correction off the Lisa. So with Apple II and III, we did it in reverse. It takes around five years, or some number of years like that, to realize that window opening. And then it seems to take about another five years to really exploit it in the marketplace.
你知道,Macintosh 是对 Lisa 的一个修正。因此,在 Apple II 和 III 上,我们是反向操作。大约需要五年,或者类似的几年,才能意识到那个窗口的开启。然后似乎又需要大约五年才能在市场上真正利用它。

And let me give you some examples. from my life. Apple II lasted 15 years, 15 years. The hardware churned. But basically, it was the same for 15 years. DOS—you know, DOS, just passed 10 years. I don't think anyone would disagree that it's going to easily last another five, right—unfortunately.
让我给你一些例子,来自我的经历。苹果 II 持续了 15 年,15 年。硬件更换了。但基本上,它在 15 年里都是一样的。DOS——你知道,DOS,刚过了 10 年。我想没有人会不同意它很容易再持续五年,对吧——不幸的是。

And Mac, you know, Mac is eight years old, right? No question it's going to last another four or five years, right? These things are hard. They don't last because it's convenient, or even because it's economic. They last because they're really—this is hard stuff to do.
而 Mac,你知道,Mac 已经八岁了,对吧?毫无疑问,它还会再用四五年,对吧?这些东西很坚固。它们之所以耐用,不是因为方便,甚至也不是因为经济实惠。它们之所以耐用,是因为这真的是很难做到的。

And so when we are pushing that window open, I think with our current generation of products, we finally got the window open. After six years, it's open. We've got an extremely elegant implementation. And we've got five years of work to do to exploit it in the marketplace.
所以当我们推开那个窗口时,我认为凭借我们当前一代的产品,我们终于把窗口打开了。经过六年,它终于打开了。我们有一个极其优雅的实现。我们还有五年的工作要在市场上利用它。

You know, we'll peak in five years. Five years, we'll all sit around, and say, OK, it's time to get started on the next thing. It's time to get going on the next thing—maybe four years from now. But we've got a lot of work ahead of us just to move this thing out, and educate the market, and continue to refine it based on market feedback.
你知道,我们将在五年内达到巅峰。五年后,我们都会坐在一起,说,好吧,是时候开始下一个事情了。是时候开始下一个事情了——也许是四年后。但我们还有很多工作要做,才能推动这个项目,教育市场,并根据市场反馈继续完善它。

So everything I know about technology windows that are open, or just about open, is in NeXTSTEP, or we're working on it in the labs. And these things generally don't come along independently. They, kind of— clumps of them come together, has been my experience.
所以我所知道的关于技术的所有信息,关于开放或即将开放的窗口,都在 NeXTSTEP 中,或者我们正在实验室中进行研究。这些东西通常不会独立出现。根据我的经验,它们往往是成群结队地出现的。

So the things that aren't in there right now that I can talk about, there's some video stuff that's really interesting, that's going to be integrated in. There some security stuff that's really fascinating that's integrating in. But most of the core technologies in there—products are getting smaller and portable. Products are getting much, much faster. But these things are well known.
所以现在没有提到的一些事情,我可以谈谈,有一些非常有趣的视频内容将会被整合进来。有一些非常吸引人的安全技术也在整合中。但大多数核心技术已经在里面——产品变得更小、更便携。产品变得快得多。但这些事情都是众所周知的。

You know, the products that we can put on—that we can give to you in the next year or two are going to be running at speeds that I find hard to believe. And I've been doing this for a while. So I think the windows open.
你知道,我们可以在接下来一两年内提供给你的产品将以我难以置信的速度运行。我已经做这个有一段时间了。所以我认为机会来了。

And I think object-oriented technology is the biggest technical breakthrough I have seen since the early '80s, with the graphical user interfaces. And I think it's bigger, actually. It will prove to be bigger over time. Yes?
我认为面向对象技术是自 80 年代初图形用户界面以来我所见过的最大的技术突破。而且我认为它实际上更大。随着时间的推移,它将被证明更大。是吗?

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