1974-11-01 Warren Buffett.THE MONEY MEN

Refer To：《THE MONEY MEN》。

Under the 1974 headline, "Look At All Those Beautiful, Scantily Clad Girls Out There!," this profile in Forbes magazine captures Warren Buffett's personality and chronicles the singular path he cut through the investment world. Though the piece is 34 years old, it sheds light on the man behind Berkshire Hathaway as the company's shareholders meet this weekend in Omaha, Neb.

在 1974 年的标题“看看外面那些美丽、衣着暴露的女孩！”之下，这篇刊登在《福布斯》杂志的专访捕捉了沃伦·巴菲特的个性，并记录了他在投资界开辟出的独特道路。尽管这篇文章已过去 34 年，但随着伯克希尔·哈撒韦本周末在内布拉斯加州奥马哈召开股东大会，它仍为我们洞见这位掌门人提供了重要线索。

Robert Lenzner and Evelyn Rusli will be reporting from Omaha all weekend. You can find the latest on the shareholders' meeting here.

罗伯特·伦茨纳和伊芙琳·鲁斯利整个周末将从奥马哈发回报道。你可以在这里查看股东大会的最新消息。

How do you contemplate the current stock market, we asked Warren Buffett, the sage of Omaha, Neb.

我们问内布拉斯加州奥马哈的先知沃伦·巴菲特：您如何看待当前的股市？

"Like an oversexed guy in a harem," he shot back. "This is the time to start investing."

“就像一个性欲旺盛的男人置身后宫，”他脱口而出，“现在正是开始投资的时候。”

The Dow was below 600 when he said that. Before we could get Buffett's words in print, it was up almost 15% in one of the fastest rallies ever.

他说这话时，道琼斯指数还不到 600 点。还没等我们把巴菲特的话付梓，指数已在一次史上最快的反弹中上涨了近 15%。

We called him back and asked if he found the market as sexy at 660 as he did at 580. "I don't know what the averages are going to do next," he replied, "but there are still plenty of bargains around." He remarked that the situation reminded him of the early '50s.

我们又给他打电话，问他是否觉得 660 点的市场跟 580 点一样“性感”。他回答：“我不知道平均指数下一步会怎么走，但依然有大把便宜货。”他评论说这种情形让他想起了 20 世纪 50 年代初。

Warren Buffett doesn't talk much, but when he does it's well worth listening to. His sense of timing has been remarkable. Five years ago, late in 1969, when he was 39, he called it quits on the market. He liquidated his money management pool, Buffett Partnership, Ltd., and gave his clients their money back. Before that, in good years and bad, he had been beating the averages, making the partnership grow at a compounded annual rate of 30% before fees between 1957 and 1969. (That works out to a \$10,000 investment growing to \$300,000 and change.)

沃伦·巴菲特话不多，但只要开口，就值得倾听。他的时机感令人称奇。五年前，也就是 1969 年末，39 岁的他退出股市，清算了自己的资金管理池——巴菲特合伙有限公司，并将资金退还给客户。在那之前，无论牛熊，他都能击败大盘，使合伙企业在 1957 年至 1969 年间费用前的复合年化收益率达到 30%（相当于 1 万美元增值到 30 多万美元）。

He quit essentially because he found the game no longer worth playing. Multiples on good stocks were sky-high, the go-go boys were "performing" and the list was so picked over that the kind of solid bargains that Buffett likes were not to be had. He told his clients that they might do better in tax-exempt bonds than in playing the market. "When I got started," he says, "the bargains were flowing like the Johnstown flood; by 1969 it was like a leaky toilet in Altoona." Pretty cagey, this Buffett. When all the sharp MBAs were crowding into the investment business, Buffett was quietly walking away.

他之所以退出，本质上是因为他发现这场游戏不再值得玩。优质股票的市盈率高得离谱，“瞻前顾后”的投机者在“表演”，股票池被挑选得一干二净，巴菲特钟爱的扎实便宜货早已绝迹。他告诉客户，与其在股市打拼，不如去买免税债券。“刚开始的时候，”他说，“便宜货像约翰斯敦洪水一样泛滥；到 1969 年，就像阿尔图纳的一处漏水马桶。”这位巴菲特够狡猾，当所有精明的 MBA 拥入投资行业时，巴菲特却悄然抽身。

Buffett settled back to manage the business interests he had acquired, including Diversified Retailing, a chain of women's apparel stores; Blue Chip Stamps, a western states trading stamp operation; and Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified banking and insurance company that owned, among other things, a weekly newspaper, The Omaha Sun. The businesses did well. Under Buffett's management, the Sun won a Pulitzer prize for its exposé of how Boys Town, despite pleas of poverty, had been turned into a "moneymaking machine."

巴菲特退居幕后，经营自己收购的商业资产，包括女装连锁店 Diversified Retailing；西部地区的积分票据公司 Blue Chip Stamps；以及多元化银行与保险公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦，该公司旗下还拥有《奥马哈太阳报》等资产。业务表现良好。在巴菲特的管理下，《太阳报》因揭露“男孩城”在声称贫困的同时却被打造为“赚钱机器”而赢得普利策奖。

Swing, You Bum!

挥棒啊，你这家伙！

Buffett is like the legendary guy who sold his stocks in 1928 and went fishing until 1933. That guy probably didn't exist. The stock market is habit-forming: You can always persuade yourself that there are bargains around. Even in 1929. Or in 1970. But Buffett did kick the habit. He did "go fishing" from 1969 to 1974. If he had stuck around, he concedes, he would have had mediocre results.

巴菲特就像传说中在 1928 年卖掉股票后去钓鱼直到 1933 年的人。那个人大概并不存在。股市会上瘾：你总能说服自己有便宜可捡，即便在 1929 年或 1970 年。但巴菲特确实戒掉了瘾。他在 1969 年至 1974 年间“去钓鱼”。他承认如果当时留在市场里，结果也只会平平。

"I call investing the greatest business in the world," he says, "because you never have to swing." You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it."

“我称投资是世界上最好的生意，”他说，“因为你永远不必挥棒。”你站在本垒，投手给你投来通用汽车 47 美元！美国钢铁 39 美元！而且没人判你好球。唯一的惩罚只是错失机会。你整天等待自己喜欢的球；然后等到守备队员打盹，你上前一击中的。

But pity the pros at the investment institutions. They're the victims of impossible "performance" measurements. Says Buffett, continuing his baseball imagery, "It's like Babe Ruth at bat with 50,000 fans and the club owner yelling, 'Swing, you bum!' and some guy is trying to pitch him an intentional walk. They know if they don't take a swing at the next pitch, the guy will say, 'Turn in your uniform.'" Buffett claims he set up his partnership to avoid these pressures.

但要可怜那些投资机构里的专业人士。他们成了不可能完成的“业绩”衡量的受害者。巴菲特延续棒球比喻说：“这就像贝比·鲁斯站上打击区，五万名球迷和俱乐部老板喊着‘挥棒，你这家伙！’而有人却想对他故意四坏球保送。他们知道如果不挥下一球，那个家伙就会说‘把你的球衣交出来’。”巴菲特声称他设立合伙制就是为避免这种压力。

Stay dispassionate and be patient is Buffett's message. "You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with Pepsi, you should be OK." First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression.

巴菲特的讯息是：保持冷静并耐心。“你面对的是市场上许多愚蠢的人；那就像一个巨大的赌场，其他人都醉醺醺的。如果你能坚持喝百事可乐，你就会没事。”先是人群醉心乐观，买下眼前的所有新股；下一刻他们又醉心悲观，买入金条并预测另一场大萧条。

Fine, we said, if you're so bullish, what are you buying? His answer: "I don't want to tout my own stocks."

好吧，我们说，既然你这么看多，那你在买什么？他的回答：“我不想推荐我自己的股票。”

Any general suggestions, we asked?

我们问：有没有一些一般性的建议？

Just common sense ones. Buy stocks that sell at ridiculously low prices. Low by what standards? By the conventional ones of net worth, book value, the value of the business as a going concern. Above all, stick with what you know; don't get too fancy. "Draw a circle around the businesses you understand and then eliminate those that fail to qualify on the basis of value, good management and limited exposure to hard times." No high technology. No multicompanies. "I don't understand them," says Buffett. "Buy into a company because you want to own it, not because you want the stock to go up."

只有常识性的。买那些价格荒唐地低的股票。什么标准算低？按传统指标，如净资产、账面价值、企业持续经营价值。最重要的是只买你了解的公司，不要玩得太花哨。“划出你理解的业务的圈子，然后剔除那些在价值、良好管理和抗逆周期方面不合格的公司。”不要高科技，不要多元化集团。“我不懂它们，”巴菲特说。“买入一家公司是因为你想拥有它，而不是因为你想让股价上涨。”

"A water company is pretty simple," he says, adding that Blue Chip Stamps has a 5% interest in the San Jose Water Works. "So is a newspaper. Or a major retailer." He'll even buy a Street favorite if he isn't paying a big premium for things that haven't happened yet. He mentions Polaroid. "At some price, you don't pay anything for the future, and you even discount the present. Then, if Dr. Land has some surprises up his sleeve, you get them for nothing."

“自来水公司相当简单，”他说，并补充 Blue Chip Stamps 持有圣何塞水务公司 5% 的股份。“报纸也是。大型零售商也是。”如果他不用为尚未发生的事支付高额溢价，他甚至会买华尔街热门股。他提到宝丽来：“在某个价格上，你不会为未来支付任何费用，甚至会对现状打折。那么，如果兰德博士还有什么惊喜，你就能免费得到。”

安全边际。

Have faith in your own judgment or your adviser's, Buffett advises. Don't be swayed by every opinion you hear and every suggestion you read. Buffett recalls a favorite saying of Professor Benjamin Graham, the father of modern security analysis and Buffett's teacher at Columbia Business School: "You are neither right nor wrong because people agree with you." Another way of saying that wisdom, truth, lies elsewhere than in the moment's moods.

巴菲特建议，对自己的判断或你的顾问要有信心。不要被你听到的每个意见和读到的每个建议左右。巴菲特回忆起现代证券分析之父、他在哥伦比亚商学院的导师本杰明·格雷厄姆常说的一句名言：“因为别人同意你，你并非正确；因为别人反对你，你也并非错误。”换句话说，智慧和真理不在于当下情绪。

这句话只说了一半，什么是正确的决定：Intelligent hypotheses、Correct facts、Sound reasoning，这是方法论贯穿巴菲特的一生。

All Alone?

孤身一人？

What good, though, is a bargain if the market never recognizes it as a bargain? What if the stock market never comes back? Buffett replies: "When I worked for Graham-Newman, I asked Ben Graham, who then was my boss, about that. He just shrugged and replied that the market always eventually does. He was right--in the short run, it's a voting machine; in the long run, it's a weighing machine. Today on Wall Street they say, 'Yes, it's cheap, but it's not going to go up.' That's silly. People have been successful investors because they've stuck with successful companies. Sooner or later the market mirrors the business." Such classic advice is likely to remain sound in the future when they write musical comedies about the go-go boys.

然而，如果市场从未把便宜视作便宜，那便宜又有什么用？如果股市永远不再回升怎么办？巴菲特回答：“当我在格雷厄姆-纽曼工作时，我问过那时的老板本·格雷厄姆这个问题。他只是耸耸肩回答说市场终究会回来的。他说对了——短期内，市场是投票机；长期内，它是称重机。今天华尔街的人说，‘是的，便宜，但它不会涨。’那很愚蠢。投资成功的人之所以成功，是因为他们持有成功的公司。迟早市场会反映企业本身。”这种经典建议未来仍将奏效，哪怕他们将来要为“冲锋队”写音乐喜剧。

We reminded Buffett of the old play on the Kipling lines: "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs … maybe they know something you don't."

我们提醒巴菲特那句改编自吉卜林的老戏词：“如果当周围的人都失去理智时你还能保持冷静……也许他们知道你不知道的事。”

Buffett responded that, yes, he was well aware that the world is in a mess. "What the DeBeers did with diamonds, the Arabs are doing with oil; the trouble is we need oil more than diamonds." And there is the population explosion, resource scarcity, nuclear proliferation. But, he went on, you can't invest in the anticipation of calamity; gold coins and art collections can't protect you against Doomsday. If the world really is burning up, "you might as well be like Nero and say, 'It's only burning on the south side.'"

巴菲特回答说，是的，他很清楚世界正处于混乱中。“德比尔斯对钻石做的，阿拉伯人正对石油做；问题是我们比钻石更需要石油。”还有人口爆炸、资源稀缺、核扩散。但他接着说，你不能为了灾难预期去投资；金币和艺术品无法在世界末日保护你。如果世界真的烧起来，“你不妨像尼禄那样说：‘只是在南边烧而已。’”

"Look, I can't construct a disaster-proof portfolio. But if you're only worried about corporate profits, panic or depression, these things don't bother me at these prices."

“听着，我无法构建一只防灾投资组合。但如果你只担心企业利润、恐慌或萧条，在这个价位这些事都不会困扰我。”

Buffett's final word: "Now is the time to invest and get rich."

巴菲特的最后一句话：“现在正是投资并致富的时候。”

1974-11-01 Warren Buffett.THE MONEY MEN

1974-11-01 Warren Buffett.THE MONEY MEN

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