I have good news. First, most American children are going to live far better than their parents did. Second, large gains in the living standards of Americans will continue for many generations to come.
我有个好消息。首先，大多数美国孩子的生活将远比他们的父母更好。其次，美国人的生活水准将在许多代人中持续大幅提升。
Some years back, people generally agreed with my optimism. Today, however, pollsters find that most Americans are pessimistic about their children’s future. Politicians, business leaders and the press constantly tell us that our economic machine is sputtering. Their evidence: GDP growth of only 2% or so in recent years.
几年前，人们普遍认同我的乐观态度。然而今天，民调显示大多数美国人对自己孩子的未来感到悲观。政客、商界领袖以及媒体不断告诉我们经济引擎在打嗝。他们的证据是：近年来GDP增长只有大约2%。
Before we shed tears over that figure, let’s do a little math, recognizing that GDP per capita is what counts. If, for example, the U.S. population were to grow 3% annually while GDP grew 2%, prospects would indeed be bleak for our children.
在为这个数字落泪之前，让我们先做点算术，并认识到关键在于人均GDP。比如，如果美国人口每年增长3%，而GDP只增长2%，那我们的孩子前景确实会相当黯淡。
But that’s not the case. We can be confident that births minus deaths will add no more than 0.5% yearly to America’s population. Immigration is more difficult to predict. I believe 1 million people annually is a reasonable estimate, an influx that will add 0.3% annually to population growth.
但事实并非如此。我们有理由确信，自然增长（出生减去死亡）每年为美国人口增加不会超过0.5%。移民更难预测。我认为每年100万人是一个合理估计，这样的流入将为人口增长每年再增加约0.3%。
In total, therefore, you can expect America’s population to increase about 0.8% a year. Under that assumption, gains of 2% in real GDP–that is, without nominal gains produced by inflation–will annually deliver 1.2% growth in per capita GDP.
因此，总体上你可以预期美国人口每年增长大约0.8%。在这一假设下，若实际GDP（即剔除通胀后的名义增长）增长2%，那么人均GDP每年将增长1.2%。
This pace no doubt sounds paltry. But over time, it works wonders. In 25 years–a single generation–1.2% annual growth boosts our current $59,000 of GDP per capita to $79,000. This $20,000 increase guarantees a far better life for our children.
这个速度听起来无疑有点微薄。但随着时间推移，它会产生奇迹。25年——也就是一代人——每年1.2%的增长会把我们目前每人59,000美元的人均GDP提升到79,000美元。增加的20,000美元足以确保我们的孩子过上更好的生活。
In America, it should be noted, there’s nothing unusual about that sort of gain, magnificent though it will be. Just look at what has happened in my lifetime.
需要指出的是，在美国，这样的增长虽然可观，但并不罕见。看看我这一生中发生的事情就明白了。
I was born in 1930, when the symbol of American wealth was John D. Rockefeller Sr. Today my upper-middle-class neighbors enjoy options in travel, entertainment, medicine and education that were simply not available to Rockefeller and his family. With all of his riches, John D. couldn’t buy the pleasures and conveniences we now take for granted.
我出生于1930年，当时美国财富的象征是John D. Rockefeller Sr.。如今，我那些上中产阶层的邻居在旅行、娱乐、医疗和教育方面拥有的选择，Rockefeller及其家人当年根本无法企及。即便拥有所有财富，John D.也买不到我们如今视为理所当然的种种便利与乐趣。
Two words explain this miracle: innovation and productivity. Conversely, were today’s Americans doing the same things in the same ways as they did in 1776, we would be leading the same sort of lives as our forebears.
两个词解释了这一奇迹：创新与生产率。反过来说，如果今天的美国人仍在用1776年的方式做同样的事，我们的生活也会和祖辈一样。
Replicating those early days would require that 80% or so of today’s workers be employed on farms simply to provide the food and cotton we need. So why does it take only 2% of today’s workers to do this job? Give the credit to those who brought us tractors, planters, cotton gins, combines, fertilizer, irrigation and a host of other productivity improvements.
若回到早年情形，仅为满足食物和棉花的需求，今天大约80%的劳动者就得在农场工作。那为何如今只需2%的劳动者就能完成？答案在于那些将拖拉机、播种机、轧棉机、联合收割机、化肥、灌溉系统以及一系列提高生产率的创新带给我们的人。
To all this good news there is, of course, an important offset: in our 241 years, the progress that I’ve described has disrupted and displaced almost all of our country’s labor force. If that level of upheaval had been foreseen–which it clearly wasn’t–strong worker opposition would surely have formed and possibly doomed innovation. How, Americans would have asked, could all these unemployed farmers find work?
当然，所有这些好消息也有一个重要的对冲面：在这241年间，我所描述的进步几乎打乱并替代了全国几乎所有的劳动力。如果当初预见到这样的剧变——显然并没有——强烈的工人反对很可能会形成，甚至扼杀创新。美国人会问：这么多失业的农民如何找到工作？
We know today that the staggering productivity gains in farming were a blessing. They freed nearly 80% of the nation’s workforce to redeploy their efforts into new industries that have changed our way of life.
今天我们知道，农业生产率的巨大提升是一种福祉。它释放了全国近80%的劳动力，使他们能够转向那些改变我们生活方式的新产业。
You can describe these develop-ments as productivity gains or disruptions. Whatever the label, they explain why we now have our amazing $59,000 of GDP per capita.
你可以把这些变化称为生产率的提升，也可以说是颠覆。无论贴上什么标签，它们都解释了我们如今为何拥有令人惊叹的每人59,000美元的人均GDP。
This game of economic miracles is in its early innings. Americans will benefit from far more and better “stuff” in the future. The challenge will be to have this bounty deliver a better life to the disrupted as well as to the disrupters. And on this matter, many Americans are justifiably worried.
这场经济奇迹的比赛才刚到前几局。未来美国人将获得更多、更好的“东西”。挑战在于，如何让这份丰裕同时改善颠覆者和被颠覆者的生活。对此，许多美国人的担忧并非没有道理。
Let’s think again about 1930. Imagine someone then predicting that real per capita GDP would increase sixfold during my lifetime. My parents would have immediately dismissed such a gain as impossible. If somehow, though, they could have imagined it actually transpiring, they would concurrently have predicted something close to universal prosperity.
再回到1930年。设想当时有人预测，在我有生之年，人均实际GDP将增长六倍。我的父母会立刻认为这不可能。如果他们能想象这真的会发生，他们也会同时预测接近全民繁荣的景象。
Instead, another invention of the ensuing decades, the Forbes 400, paints a far different picture. Between the first computation in 1982 and today, the wealth of the 400 increased 29-fold–from $93 billion to $2.7 trillion–while many millions of hardworking citizens remained stuck on an economic treadmill. During this period, the tsunami of wealth didn’t trickle down. It surged upward.
然而，随后的几十年里，另一项“发明”——Forbes 400——勾勒出截然不同的图景。从1982年首次统计至今，榜单上400人的财富增长了29倍——从930亿美元增至2.7万亿美元——与此同时，数以百万计勤劳的公民仍困于经济“跑步机”。在这一时期，财富的海啸并未“涓滴而下”，而是向上奔涌。
In 1776, America set off to unleash human potential by combining market economics, the rule of law and equality of opportunity. This foundation was an act of genius that in only 241 years converted our original villages and prairies into $96 trillion of wealth.
1776年，美国通过结合市场经济、法治与机会平等，开启了释放人类潜能的征程。这一奠基之举极富智慧，仅用241年，便将原本的村庄与草原转化为96万亿美元的财富。
The market system, however, has also left many people hopelessly behind, particularly as it has become ever more specialized. These devastating side effects can be ameliorated: a rich family takes care of all its children, not just those with talents valued by the marketplace.
然而，市场体系也让许多人被远远甩在身后，尤其是在分工日益专业化的过程中。这些严重的副作用是可以缓解的：富裕的家庭会照顾所有的孩子，而不会只顾那些被市场看重才华的孩子。
In the years of growth that certainly lie ahead, I have no doubt that America can both deliver riches to many and a decent life to all. We must not settle for less.
在可以肯定的未来增长岁月里，我毫不怀疑美国既能为许多人带来财富，也能让所有人过上体面的生活。我们决不能满足于低于这一目标的结果。