2020-05-06 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2020 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2020 Earnings Conference Call May 6, 2020 9:30 AM ET
Corporate Participants
Julia Hornack - Investor Relations
Tricia Griffith - Chief Executive Officer
John Sauerland - Chief Financial Officer
Jonathan Bauer - Chief Investment Officer
Pat Callahan - Personal Lines President
Conference Call participants
Michael Phillips - Morgan Stanley
Mike Zaremski - Credit Suisse
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Meyer Shields - KBW
Brian Meredith - UBS
Yaron Kinar - Goldman Sachs
Stephen Mead - Anchor Capital Advisors
Philip Stefano - Deutsche Bank
Operator
运营人员
Welcome to The Progressive Corporation's First Quarter Investor Event.
欢迎参加 Progressive 公司第一季度投资者活动。
The company will not make detailed comments related to quarterly results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's Web site. And we'll use this event to respond to questions.
公司除了已在官网发布的 Form 10-Q 年度报告和致股东信中所提供的内容外，不会对季度业绩做进一步详述。本次活动将用于回答投资者的问题。
Acting as moderator for the event will be Julia Hornack. At this time, I will turn the event over to Ms. Hornack. Please go head.
本次活动将由 Julia Hornack 主持。现在我将把活动交给 Hornack 女士，请继续。
Julia Hornack
Thank you, Jake, and good morning.
谢谢你，Jake，大家早上好。
Although our quarterly investor relations events typically include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use all of the 60 minutes scheduled for today's event for question-and-answer session with our CEO, Tricia Griffith, our CFO, John Sauerland; Personal Lines President, Pat Callahan; Commercial Lines President. John Barbagallo; Chief Investment Officer, Jonathan Bauer; and the General Manager of our Property Business, Dave Pratt.
虽然我们季度投资者活动通常会包含一段关于特定业务板块的介绍，但今天我们将用全部预定的 60 分钟时间，进行问答环节。参与问答的有我们的首席执行官 Tricia Griffith、首席财务官 John Sauerland、个人险总裁 Pat Callahan、商用险总裁 John Barbagallo、首席投资官 Jonathan Bauer，以及房产保险业务总经理 Dave Pratt。
Phone participants may ask questions via the telephone, dial-in instructions maybe found at investors.progressive.com/events.
电话会议参与者可通过电话提问，拨入说明可在 investors.progressive.com/events 页面找到。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during the event.
和往常一样，本次活动中的讨论可能包括前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，但也存在诸多风险与不确定性，可能导致实际事件和结果与本次讨论中的内容存在重大差异。
Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available on our 2019 annual report on Form 10-K, and our first quarter quarterly report on Form 10-Q, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, Safe Harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face.
有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，可参见我们 2019 年的 Form 10-K 年报和第一季度的 Form 10-Q 季报，其中包括影响我们业务的风险因素、有关前瞻性陈述的免责条款，以及我们面临的其他挑战的讨论。
In particular note that our quarterly report on Form 10-Q includes discussions of the risks and uncertainties arising directly and indirectly from the COVID-19 pandemic. These documents can be found on our Web site, investors.progressive.com.
请特别注意，我们在 Form 10-Q 季报中对新冠疫情直接或间接带来的风险与不确定性也做了讨论。这些文件可在我们的网站 investors.progressive.com 上查阅。
Before going to our first question from the conference call line, our CEO, Tricia Griffith will make some introductory comments, Tricia.
在我们接入电话会议的第一个提问前，请我们的首席执行官 Tricia Griffith 发表开场讲话。Tricia，请。
Tricia Griffith
Good morning.
大家早上好。
Before we open up for your Q\&A, I'd like to make just a few remarks of how Progressive has responded to COVID-19 because I'm extraordinarily proud of my team and the nearly 43,000 people that make Progressive incredible company and culture that we all enjoy.
在进入问答环节之前，我想先简要谈谈 Progressive 对 COVID-19 的应对措施，因为我为我的团队以及我们近 43,000 名员工感到无比自豪，正是他们共同造就了我们所珍视的这家卓越公司和企业文化。
As you know, with our incredible growth over the past several years, I've had the opportunity to welcome thousands of new people into progressive. I take an hour to meet with new hires and talk about our core values in our culture. I sometimes struggle describing our special culture because it is somewhat indescribable. So I usually say that it becomes crystal clear when something really great happens or when there is a crisis. This unprecedented situation has allowed all of our Progressive family to visibly live our core values and completely understand why this is such a unique place.
大家知道，过去几年里我们取得了惊人的增长，也因此我有机会迎接数千名新员工加入 Progressive。我通常会花一个小时与新员工见面，讲述我们的核心价值观和文化。有时我很难准确描述我们独特的企业文化，因为它确实很难用语言来界定。所以我常说，只有在真正美好的事情发生时，或是在危机面前，它才会变得清晰可感。而这场前所未有的疫情让我们 Progressive 的每一位成员都切身体会并践行了我们的核心价值观，也更加理解为什么这里如此与众不同。
The actions we've taken for both our employees and customers have absolutely created and reinforced their loyalty to Progressive. Let me walk you through a few specifics.
我们为员工和客户所采取的行动，无疑增强并巩固了他们对 Progressive 的忠诚。我来分享一些具体措施。
We immediately determined the needs of each of our constituents and started to develop plans forming teams to address each party. We've named the program, the Apron Relief Program, a nod to our brand icon it symbolizes protection and strength.
我们迅速识别各类利益相关者的需求，并开始制定应对方案，组建团队针对每一类对象展开工作。我们将这一计划命名为“Apron Relief Program”（围裙纾困计划），致敬我们的品牌标识——围裙象征着保护与力量。
Let me start with our employee base. We knew we needed to get the majority of our employees home to be able to work and take care of our customers. We immediately put into play our business continuity plan to protect our people. Currently, 95% of our workforce is working from home and for the employees that need to continue to come into the office, we've adjusted the workspaces to increase social distances, and we've intensified our cleaning measures. We also knew that even though every Progressive employee has a job and many of them have spouses and significant others that aren't as fortunate.
先说我们的员工。我们很清楚，需要让大部分员工回到家中远程办公，以保障他们的安全，同时继续服务客户。我们立即启动了业务连续性计划，以保护员工的健康。目前，我们约 95% 的员工已经在家办公，而对于那些仍需到办公室的员工，我们调整了工作空间以增加社交距离，并加强了清洁消毒措施。同时我们也意识到，虽然 Progressive 的每位员工都保住了岗位，但他们中很多人的配偶或伴侣可能没有这么幸运。
In order to help our employees to have financial confidence, we paid our non-equity employees a portion of their annual gain share bonus in April. We also have created and committed \$2 million to the Progressive employee relief fund to assist our employees experiencing hardships.
为了增强员工的经济信心，我们在四月份向非股权员工提前发放了部分年度利润分享奖金。同时，我们设立了 Progressive 员工救助基金，并承诺投入 200 万美元，用于帮助面临困难的员工。
Our employees have really appreciated the communication from every level of leaders at Progressive. I send a weekly video from my home and have literally received thousands of notes from our employees. I'll share one that will give you a sense of the sentiments.
我们的员工非常感激 Progressive 各级领导的沟通和传达。我每周都会从家中录制一段视频发给大家，而我也收到了数以千计的员工回信。下面我分享一封，能让大家体会到员工的情感：
In a time of uncertainty, I want to let you know your videos in Progressive had been so encouraging and uplifting. I've never been prouder to be part of our Progressive family. I bleed blue and orange, but all that we are doing during this most difficult time to help each other and others is inspiring. Thank you for taking the time to be so honest and for opening your home and family to all of us. It's refreshing seeing you and your family's experiences are similar to ours. I love your journey through the years at Progressive and how approachable and friendly, I've always been. I know we try to be not what you expect an insurance company for our customers. But I'm very grateful and proud that is also for our employees. And I received so many of those.
在这段充满不确定性的时期，我想让你知道，你的那些视频以及 Progressive 所做的一切都极大地鼓舞了我。我从未像现在这样为成为 Progressive 大家庭的一员而感到骄傲。我流的是蓝色和橙色的血（Progressive 的主色），我们在这段最艰难时刻彼此扶持、关爱他人，这一切都令人无比动容。感谢你抽出时间，真诚地与我们分享，并敞开家门与我们分享你的家庭生活。看到你和你家人经历的事情和我们如此相似，令人感到亲切。我很喜欢你在 Progressive 多年来的旅程，也很欣赏你一贯的亲和和友善。我知道我们始终致力于打造一家“打破人们对保险公司刻板印象”的企业，不只是对客户如此，对员工同样如此。对此我充满感激与自豪。而这样的来信，我收到了很多。
The customers that were privileged to serve need us now more than ever. We are providing premium credits of 20% to personal auto policies in force at the end of April and May, which amount to approximately $1 billion. In addition, we temporarily suspended cancellations and non-renewals on personal and commercial lines policy, paused collection activities and have deferred some deductibles.
我们有幸服务的客户现在比以往任何时候都更加需要我们。我们向截至4月底和5月底有效的个人车险保单提供20%的保费返还，金额约为10亿美元。此外，我们临时暂停了对个人险和商用险保单的取消和不续保操作，暂停了催收活动，并延迟收取部分免赔额。
We also provided delivering meals for our 400 trucking customers, first responders and health care providers. I'll share one of the many comments we received from the first responder.
我们还为400家卡车运输客户、急救人员和医护工作者提供了送餐服务。我来分享一条我们收到的急救人员留言：
I'm so impressed with Progressive and what they are doing about the COVID situation. You guys are really helping our customers and even providing food to our table. Thank you. These kinds of things make you want to stay with the company forever.
我对 Progressive 应对新冠疫情所做的事情印象非常深刻。你们真的在帮我们的客户，甚至还给我们送餐。谢谢你们。这样的举动让我想永远与这家公司合作。
For our communities we've given $8 million of donations to charities focused on hunger, health and homelessness. I recently received a call from Claire, the CEO of Feeding America, and she was so thankful that we were providing meals to so many who need them now more than ever.
对于社区，我们捐赠了800万美元给专注于饥饿、健康和无家可归问题的慈善组织。我最近接到 Feeding America 首席执行官 Claire 的电话，她非常感谢我们为目前最需要帮助的人们提供餐食。
I also recently received a letter from Gail the CEO of the American Red Cross. I'll read a short excerpt. I wanted to reach out to you with a personal note to express my most sincere appreciation for the Progressive Insurance Foundation's recent and truly impactful gift to the Red Cross and powering the continued delivery of our life saving mission nationwide and then the Coronavirus outbreak. As our humanitarian organization continues to adapt to meet the new challenges presented by this pandemic, your generosity ensures that Red Cross is there to provide vital blood and disaster relief services to people around the U.S. who rely on us when they win help can't wait.
我也最近收到美国红十字会首席执行官 Gail 的来信。我读一段节选：我想亲自向你表达我最真挚的感谢，感谢 Progressive 保险基金会近期向红十字会捐赠的重要善款，这笔捐赠极大地支持了我们在新冠疫情期间持续开展救命使命。随着我们的慈善组织不断适应疫情带来的新挑战，你们的慷慨捐助确保了红十字会能够继续向那些需要我们及时救助的美国民众提供至关重要的输血和救灾服务。
We also care immensely about our partners and helping them get through this trying time. For our body shops and independent agent partners, it's about loyalty, but it's also about minimizing the disruption of our supply chain as we get on the other side of this crisis.
我们也非常关心我们的合作伙伴，努力帮助他们度过这一困难时期。对于我们的车身修理厂和独立代理人伙伴来说，这不仅关乎忠诚，也关乎在我们走出这场危机的过程中最大限度减少供应链的中断。
For more than 35,000 independent agents, we are partnering with agent associations to provide over $2.5 million in grants to help agents address new challenges presented by the virus, and we're also administering internal fund to provide additional targeted relief to our agents. Additionally, we've made over $40 million available to agents by advancing performance bonus payments to more than 4500 of our agents. While the opt-in period is still open on today, we've had over 1600 agents opt-in for a total of $20 million.
针对我们超过35,000名的独立代理人，我们正与代理人协会合作，提供超过250万美元的补助金，帮助他们应对疫情带来的新挑战。同时我们还设立了内部基金，为代理人提供更具针对性的额外援助。此外，我们提前向超过4500名代理人支付了绩效奖金，总额超过4000万美元。截至目前，在“自愿参与”期仍开放的情况下，已有1600多名代理人参与，总计领取了2000万美元。
In addition, we sent $1,000 to each of our network body shops to use as a soft pad. We saw this is another opportunity to help when they needed it most and show them how much we value them. One shop owner called in tears to tell us how much that was appreciated.
此外，我们向每一家网络修理厂发送了1000美元的应急金。在他们最需要帮助的时候，我们希望通过这一举措表达我们对他们的重视。一位修理厂老板打电话来，含着泪表示深深的感激。
Lastly, we aren't sitting still and have our eyes focused on the future. In fact, we formulated three distinct scopes of work outlined under constructs we call resolve, return and reimagine. Resolve, first and foremost, we are addressing the immediate challenges COVID-19 presents to our workforce, customers, agents, communities and other stakeholders. Return, next, we are creating detailed plans to return business back to scale quickly as the virus evolves, lasting impact are more understood and effects become clearer. Reimagine, lastly, we have formed several teams under this category and the goal is to understand how the environment may shift and reimagine the next normal and how we can position ourselves to flourish.
最后，我们并未止步不前，而是着眼于未来。实际上，我们制定了三项明确的工作方向，并以“应对（Resolve）、复归（Return）、再造（Reimagine）”为框架加以推进。首先是“应对”，我们正在解决新冠疫情对员工、客户、代理人、社区和其他利益相关者带来的紧迫挑战；第二是“复归”，我们制定了详尽的计划，以便在疫情演变、长期影响逐渐明确的过程中迅速恢复业务规模；最后是“再造”，我们成立了多个专项小组，目标是理解环境可能发生的变化，重新构想“新的常态”，并规划我们在其中的发展方向。
All of this to say our shareholders should feel very confident that we've got this covered for the short, medium and long-term. Our resilience is shining brighter than ever and we will come out of this stronger that I'm confident in.
综上所述，我们的股东应当对公司短期、中期和长期的发展充满信心。我们的韧性比以往任何时候都更加闪耀，我相信我们将从这场危机中变得更加强大。
Thank you and now we'll take the first question.
谢谢大家。接下来我们开始今天的第一个提问。
Julia Hornack
Jake, please go ahead with the remainder of the script.
Jake，请继续剩下的主持流程。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]
谢谢。[接下来是操作说明]
Tricia Griffith
I'm going to give Jake just a moment to allow additional callers into the question queue. But so I'll get started with the first question, which is can you talk about the current shifts in automotive automobile usage and potential shifts in automobile usage as the COVID-19 restrictions are lifted and the resulting impact to Progressive?
我先给 Jake 一点时间，让更多来电者进入问答队列。那么我先来回答第一个问题：你们能谈谈当前汽车使用的变化，以及随着新冠限制措施的解除，汽车使用可能发生的变化，以及这对 Progressive 的影响吗？
Well, absolutely, let me start with our usage based insurance data because it is continues to evolve as the shelter and place orders are lifted. So we saw abrupt declines in miles driven in mid-March. And by the end of the month and the daily driving for vehicle miles travelled was 40% lower than pre-COVID baselines. And then, in the first few days of May, we started to see some broad based increase in driving and I'll give you a little bit more on that.
当然可以。我先从我们的“基于使用的保险”（Usage-Based Insurance，UBI）数据说起。随着居家令的逐步解除，这些数据也在不断变化。我们在3月中旬看到行驶里程骤降，到月底时，日均车辆行驶里程比疫情前基准水平低了40%。但到了5月初几天，我们开始看到驾驶行为出现广泛反弹，我来补充一些细节。
So last week, and we actually saw driving only down 14% countrywide versus pre-COVID. Now that changes and even up to this Monday we saw around 20%, 25%. So we are definitely seeing in states where the shelter in place has lifted we're seeing driving continue to be to increase and we're really following it on a daily basis. So I would say the level of data I'd normally don't show this level of data, but we're really literally watching it state by state and day by day to understand driving behavior.
上周我们看到，全国范围内的行驶量比疫情前仅下降了14%。当然，这会有波动，比如到了这个周一，降幅在20%到25%之间。所以在那些已经解除居家令的州，我们确实看到驾驶行为持续增加。我们是按天在追踪这些数据的。我平时不大会分享这种细节层级的数据，但现在我们确实是在按州、按天去观察驾驶行为的变化。
The reductions we're seeing are almost entirely due to changes in number of trips and not the length of trips. And I think, overall, I can't tell you what will happen in the future because these times are so uncertain. But the fact that we have this knowledge of the driving behavior, I think has been really important for us, as we understand sort of long-term trends.
我们看到的减少几乎完全是由于出行频次的下降，而不是单次出行距离的变化。整体上来说，我无法预测未来会发生什么，因为当前环境极其不确定。但我认为，我们能够掌握这些驾驶行为数据，对于理解长期趋势非常重要。
John Sauerland
I will just add to that, obviously, everyone is wondering how fast this company is back? Does it come back to the same level of miles travelled as pre-COVID, and we're obviously trying to assess that as well. We believe there may be some trends around lower usage of public transportation over the longer term. They're also think there must be some substitution effect from air travel to vehicle travels for longer trips. And we'll be watching this carefully over time. And if we continue to see opportunities to give credits to our customers, we'll do that. But we are going to take it on a sort of a month by month and a geographically specific basis. Obviously, our product managers at Progressive are a huge competitive advantage for us, while we've taken a broad swath to date. We think the right path forward is likely a more surgical approach to any further credits.
我来补充几点，显然大家都在关心公司业务恢复的速度问题：是否会恢复到疫情前的行驶水平？我们也在密切评估这一点。我们认为，从长期来看，公共交通的使用率可能会下降；而长途出行方面，飞机出行部分可能会被汽车出行所替代。我们会持续密切关注这些趋势。如果我们继续发现有机会为客户提供保费返还，我们也会继续做。但这类决定我们将采取按月、按地域逐步分析的方式。Progressive 的产品经理团队一直是我们重要的竞争优势。虽然我们目前采取了较大范围的返还措施，但我们认为，未来如果继续返还，采取更精细、定制化的方式将是更合理的路径。
Tricia Griffith
Great. Thanks for that data. Jake, can we please go to the first question in the queue, please?
很好，谢谢你们分享这些数据。Jake，我们可以接入问答队列中的第一个问题了吗？
Operator
Our first question comes from Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley.
我们的第一个问题来自 Morgan Stanley 的 Michael Phillips。
Michael Phillips
Tricia, you guys have done a great job over the years, this is a non-COVID question. A great job over the years of kind of becoming more efficient and lowering this -- your non-acquisition expense ratio. And I guess just curious over the longer term, how much juice you think is left in that, so you can improve that?
Tricia，你们这些年来在提升效率和降低非获客相关费用率方面做得非常出色。这个问题和 COVID 无关。我想了解一下，从长期来看，你们认为在这方面还有多少“潜力”可以挖掘？还能进一步改善多少？
Tricia Griffith
Well, it's hard to give a certain percentage Michael, but we will care deeply to continue to care about costs because, this is a -- it's a competitive environment. That has always been one of our four pillars when we talk about our strategy of becoming consumers' number one choice, so we'll continue to care about cost. And from a media perspective, we will spend media when we think it's efficient. This has been sort of a strange time because a lot of our media spend has -- is normally in live sports, et cetera. So obviously, in March, it went down a little bit because of that.
Michael，很难给出一个明确的百分比，但我们确实会持续关注成本控制，因为这是一个高度竞争的市场。控制成本一直是我们“成为消费者首选保险公司”战略的四大支柱之一，所以我们会持续关注。就媒体投放而言，我们只会在认为有效的时候投放。最近这段时间比较特殊，因为我们很多广告预算原本用于体育直播等内容，3 月份时这些内容减少了，支出自然也下降了一些。
But from an efficiency perspective, we are constantly thinking of ways to take unnecessary costs out of the system, to be able to have competitive prices for our customers. Can't tell you the exact amount but we talked about it all the time on my team.
但从效率角度出发，我们一直在想办法将系统中不必要的成本剔除，以便为客户提供更具竞争力的价格。虽然我无法给出具体的数字，但这个话题在我们的团队内部是经常被讨论的。
Michael Phillips
Follow up is just, I guess curious to hear your thoughts on how you think just the overall market, personal auto market pricing arm would be once we get out of COVID and kind of back to normal, maybe 2021 or whatever that is, but what you think the impact of this would be on a normal state back into the auto pricing market?
我还有一个后续问题。我想听听你对整体个人车险市场定价前景的看法——等我们走出 COVID 回归正常之后，也许是 2021 年或更晚。你觉得这次疫情会对未来“常态化”的车险定价市场带来怎样的影响？
Tricia Griffith
I wish I had that crystal ball. I think all the good companies are thinking about right now, getting consumers back, some of the money from the premiums because of the reduction in driving. Again, we're seeing that reduction go to less levels and we saw initially in March so we will price it. And one of the reasons that we did credits was because the fact that, we care a lot about segmentation and making sure that a lot of variables that we use, were price try and so we didn't want to kind of mess up that and I think all the good companies will do that and we will be competitive.
要是我有水晶球就好了（笑）。我想所有优秀的公司现在都在思考如何在出行减少的背景下，将部分保费退还给客户。现在我们观察到，出行的下降幅度已经没有3月份时那么剧烈了，所以我们会相应地进行定价调整。我们之所以采用保费返还机制，其中一个原因是我们非常重视风险细分（segmentation），我们希望确保我们所使用的多个变量仍然保持定价敏感性，不想扰乱原有模型。我认为所有优秀的公司都会这样做，而我们在这方面具备竞争力。
And we will think about all the things that are important in terms of continued segmentation. So even during this time, whether it's on the personal line side or the commercial line side, we have been focused on continuing with our product models understanding right to risk, understanding our cost structure, making sure our brand has evolved and all those things together, I believe I can only speak on behalf of Progressive. I think we will come out of this stronger and be able to continue to capture share as we've had in the last 3, 4 years.
我们也会继续关注细分策略中所有关键要素。所以即便在这段特殊时期，无论是在个人险业务还是商用险业务，我们都始终专注于优化产品模型、理解风险精准定价、把握成本结构，并确保我们的品牌持续进化。所有这些要素综合起来——当然我只能代表 Progressive 发言——我相信我们会变得更强，并能像过去三四年一样持续扩大市场份额。
Operator
We have a question from Mike Zaremski with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
我们收到一位来自瑞信（Credit Suisse）的提问者 Mike Zaremski 的问题。请开始提问。
Mike Zaremski
In the last earnings release and I believe in the Q2 you talked about a 200,000 policyholders electing the billing leniency option. As of March 31, do you expect that number to increase a lot? And I assume that number was correlated with the kind of uncertain, I can't believe -- I can't recall you called it but a kind of maybe the potential bad debt expense you also charged you took in your March results.
在上一季度财报中，我记得你们提到有大约 20 万名保单持有人选择了账单宽限选项。截止 3 月 31 日，你们预计这个数字还会大幅上升吗？我也猜测这个数字和你们 3 月份确认的那个我记不清你们怎么称呼的“潜在坏账费用”有关？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. So a lot of that is from the leniency and then we through March 15, we didn't cancel for non-pay. So, that we will expect that to increase, we're not going to share the exact amount. But here's what we're really trying to do. I think this is an important piece, Mike. In John Murphy's CRM organization, they're really working closely to personalize it with each customer. And we're trying to make sure that if they couldn't pay for a certain period of time, how do we get them back on track, we want people to be legal, we want people to have insurance, we want to be really flexible with each and every customer that happens to. So we have those 200,000 customers, that -- the payments will start to come due, we'll work with them to try to design coverage that they're able to stay, insurance insured with Progressive. And John Murphy's team is working literally many, many hours in many days, it's just to think about this in his team.
是的，很多都是和宽限政策有关。而且在 3 月 15 日之前，我们没有因客户未付款而取消保单。所以这个数字是会继续上升的，只是我们现在不打算披露具体的数字。但我想强调一件重要的事，Mike。我们的 CRM 部门由 John Murphy 领导，他们正和每位客户紧密合作，进行个性化处理。我们的目标是，如果客户在一段时间内确实无力支付，我们该如何帮助他们恢复正常状态——我们希望客户合法上路、拥有保险，并且我们会对每一位遇到困难的客户尽可能灵活处理。对于这 20 万名客户来说，账单很快会到期，我们会与他们合作，尝试设计适合的保单，让他们能继续留在 Progressive 的保障之下。John 的团队这段时间投入了大量时间精力来处理这件事。
And in fact, the CRM organization has been quite busy because we're doing a lot of personalization, a lot of consultation with our customers at this time, when they really need to understand how they can stay legal. And we actually have a couple hundred people from our claims organization who had worked in CRM at one point moving over to be able to counsel those customers. So retention is going to be as important as ever, we don't know how many people we will lose or that won't have insurance for a while. There's so many different variables in terms of what is happening in our customers lives, but our goal is to keep as many as we can and we are going to do that as much we can. And put so much work into that to make sure that our retention stays the same.
事实上，我们的 CRM 团队现在非常繁忙，因为我们正在对客户进行大量的个性化支持和咨询服务，帮助他们了解如何继续合法持保。同时，我们还从理赔部门调来了几百位曾在 CRM 工作过的员工，以便为客户提供更多辅导。客户留存将比以往任何时候都重要。我们无法确定会有多少人流失或短期内没有保险，因为客户的生活状态存在太多变数。但我们的目标是尽可能留住更多客户，并且我们已经投入了大量精力来确保我们的留存率保持稳定。
John Sauerland
Mike, I will just add. Clearly the 200,000 is through the end of March and leniency goes through May 15. So we won't cancel anyone for non-payment or renew them through May 15. Starting May 15, customers will be getting bills that will be for the balance outstanding for the period in which we planned our leniency as well as the upcoming months. So, we will be working very hard as Tricia mentioned, our customer relationship management organization to make sure we keep those customers.
Mike，我来补充一点。明确地说，这 20 万是截至 3 月底的数字，而我们的宽限政策延续至 5 月 15 日。在此之前，我们不会因未付款而取消或不续保。从 5 月 15 日开始，客户会收到账单，涵盖此前宽限期内的应付款项以及未来几个月的保费。所以我们会像 Tricia 说的那样，CRM 团队会非常努力地工作，确保尽可能留住这些客户。
If you're trying to estimate what bad debt write-offs were being through April through May that's a fair thing to do for sure. We're not providing numbers in terms of additional people that we are providing leniency to at this point, but it's safe to assume that it is more than 200,000 as of end of March. And it will be -- a difficult challenge, frankly, to estimate what portion of that we won't collect. This is unprecedented. Of course, we normally have bad debt expense routines, unexposed premium, those really don't apply in this case, it's very different situation. So we will be making some estimates.
如果你正在尝试评估我们在 4 月到 5 月间的坏账冲销水平，这是非常合理的。我们目前不提供新增享受宽限政策的客户人数，但可以合理假设这个数字已经超过 3 月底的 20 万。坦白说，要估算其中有多少我们最终无法收回将非常困难。这是史无前例的情况。我们通常会有坏账费用的经验模型，像“未暴露的保费”等概念，但在这种情境下这些都不适用，所以我们会做一些特别的估算。
And the good news is, due to our monthly releases, you will have clarity around that for April and just a couple --
好消息是，由于我们每月都有财务更新报告，大家很快就能在 4 月的数据中看到这些影响……【音频中断】。
Tricia Griffith
May 20. Yes, I mean, we watched the hardships kind of unfold. And so, I mean, we care a lot about that. I have to tell you a story that just came to me yesterday. And this is back to my culture comment. Mike, so woman from CRM was talking to one of our customers that couldn't pay for May and we're talking -- she was talking through leniency and our CRM rep and I don't always want this to happen, but I think this is a beautiful story. Our CRM rep paid a premium for May out of her own pocket, which to me is like, that's an incredible tribute to our culture and having somebody listening to a customer and doing the right thing.
5月20日。是的，我们一直在关注困难如何发展，我们对此非常关心。我昨天刚听到一个故事，想和你分享，这又让我回想起我们之前关于企业文化的讨论。Mike，有一位 CRM 团队的女性员工在与一位无力支付5月份保费的客户通话，她在讲解宽限政策。结果我们的这位 CRM 员工，虽然我并不希望这变成常态，但她主动用自己的钱帮客户支付了5月份的保费。对我来说，这正是我们文化的真实写照：有人真正倾听客户的困难，然后去做正确的事。
Now, of course, I don't want that to happen all the time. It's an extraordinary example. I think is a good example of our culture. And we're going to do whatever we can to make sure that we understand the hardships going forward. And the most important thing is to make sure that people stay legal and have insurance and we hope it's a Progressive.
当然，我并不希望这种情况频繁发生。这是一个极其特别的例子，但确实是我们企业文化的一个美好体现。未来我们会尽全力去理解客户所经历的困难。最重要的事情是，确保人们能够合法持保，我们也希望他们选择 Progressive。
Mike Zaremski
Tricia that's helpful. It's amazing that your colleague did that. Lastly, Tricia, I think you mentioned the gain share factor earlier. It's clearly a very important metric for your colleagues, when they think about their potential bonuses. It's also been an important metric for investors to gauge Progressive success, and I don't think it's disclosed anymore kind of curious why is that the case?
Tricia，谢谢你的回答。你那位同事的行为真是令人敬佩。最后一个问题：你刚才提到了 gain share（利润分享）指标。它显然对员工来说是一个非常关键的奖金考量因素，对投资者来说也是评估 Progressive 成功与否的重要参考。但我注意到你们似乎不再披露这个数据了，可以解释一下为什么吗？
Tricia Griffith
Well, we disclosed it publicly because it was correlated with our dividend policies. So we've had it internally forever when we change the dividend policy to have that reflected in our gains share score is a piece of the formula. We shared publicly. So we started not doing that when we changed the dividend policy last year. So what we did this year was we looked at the gain share for the quarter, we took in conservative estimates. So we didn't go to the full number that we thought it would be on basically to make sure that we gave the employees that needed most some of their bonus that we believe, is not at risk.
我们过去之所以公开披露 gain share，是因为它与我们的分红政策挂钩。我们内部一直在使用这一指标，而当我们将其纳入分红政策计算公式时，也就对外公开了。但自从去年我们调整了分红政策后，我们就不再披露这个指标。今年我们所做的，是对季度 gain share 进行了保守估算，我们没有用上我们认为的全部金额，而是确保把那一部分我们认为“风险较低”的奖金预先发放给最需要的员工。
Of course, again, we don't know what'll happen at the end of the year, lots of things can happen, but we won't share the gains share publicly going forward, especially since we have monthly earnings release. And we've also even gotten more disclosures on that in terms of caps and in our approach to how we look at caps on a monthly basis.
当然，我们仍然无法预测年底的结果，任何事情都有可能发生。但未来我们将不再公开 gain share 数据，特别是考虑到我们每月都会发布财务业绩。此外，我们还进一步披露了相关上限（cap）数据，以及我们每月如何设定这些上限的方法。
Operator
We have a question from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.
我们收到来自富国银行（Wells Fargo）的 Elyse Greenspan 的问题。
Elyse Greenspan
My first question is on new business. When you guys reported your March results, you had pointed to a good slowdown, kind of in the back half of the month as individuals weren't shopping on, even, during kind of the COVID situation. Have you seen any change in April? And then I guess, maybe combined with that question, because it's also on new business, we've seen others in the space kind of elect to give their refunds related to COVID in different ways, right, some just, sending money in the mail and some waiting till business comes up for renewal. Do you think that that kind of difference of, kind of refund, when it's given will also have an impact on new business, not just for Progressive, maybe that's more just industry comments as well.
我第一个问题是关于新业务的。你们在公布 3 月业绩时提到，在当月下半段，客户的保单购买行为明显放缓，可能是因为疫情期间大家不太“逛市场”。那么到了 4 月，你们有没有看到这种情况发生变化？另外一个相关的问题——我们看到行业中其他公司处理 COVID 相关退款的方式各不相同，有些是直接寄支票，有些是等到保单续期时再返还。你觉得退款方式的不同会不会对新业务产生影响？不一定只针对 Progressive，也欢迎你从行业角度来谈谈。
Tricia Griffith
Those are good questions, Elyse. So we have seen — I’ll have Pat Callahan add in a little bit on this and John Barbagallo, if he wants to as well, because it’s a little bit different depending on the business marketing tier in commercial — but we have seen some uptick in shopping. Usually during disruptive times, you’ll start to see that. Again, there's so many variables going on. So we know that a cohort of people in America have gotten some portion of their tax refund or their tax benefits from COVID. We've always seen shopping in times like this and we're watching it closely on the private passenger auto side. And in commercial, it's very different, if you're talking about business auto versus trucking, and I will have John Barbagallo talk a little bit about that. But the uptick hasn't been extraordinary, but we are seeing it, so we're taking every day to point to understand how during this disruptive time, we can have competitive prices.
这些问题都很好，Elyse。我们确实看到了一些保单购物（shopping）的回升。我会请 Pat Callahan 补充一下，如果 John Barbagallo 也愿意，他也可以讲几句，因为在商用险这边，不同业务层级的情况略有不同。通常在这种剧烈变动的时期，人们的购买行为会有所变化。现在变量很多，但我们知道，美国有一部分人已经收到了退税或疫情救助金。在这种时期我们通常会看到投保需求上升，我们也正密切关注个人车险方面的动向。而在商用险这块，比如业务车险和卡车运输之间，情况又不一样，这部分我会请 John 来谈。但总体而言，目前增长还算不上强劲，但确实有所回暖，所以我们每天都在分析，力求在这个动荡期仍能维持价格竞争力。
Pat Callahan
Sure. We definitely seen a rebound from the immediate lows during the shutdown or the shelter in place. We have seen a different recovery by channel as well, where we've seen a faster recovery on the direct side of the business than we have in agency, because we expected agents' offices are still somewhat disrupted. And we do see just a lower recovery from our agency channel.
当然。从之前封锁或居家令期间的低点来看，我们确实看到了回升。不同渠道的复苏速度也不一样，我们发现直销业务恢复得比代理渠道更快，这是我们预期之中的，因为很多代理机构的办公场所仍受影响。总体而言，我们在代理渠道的恢复情况仍然偏弱。
Tricia Griffith
John, you want to?
John，你要补充一下吗？
John Barbagallo
Yes, sure. Elyse, on the small business side, the demand function is pretty well correlated with what's going on in the economy. So we saw very definite demand shocks. And similar to personal auto, we are starting to see that come back nicely. We're still on a year-over-year basis below where we'd expect to be, especially given what is normally a peak season — this is somewhat seasonal business — but we are seeing recovery.
当然可以，Elyse。在小企业险这边，投保需求跟整体经济情况高度相关。所以我们确实经历了明显的需求冲击。不过，就像个人车险一样，我们现在也开始看到需求在逐渐恢复。虽然同比来看，我们的水平还低于预期，尤其现在本应是旺季（这个业务带有一定季节性），但确实有在回暖。
The other thing is, and Tricia alluded to this, different businesses were affected very differently by COVID. So, I'll give one example in our truck where we have good telematics data through our Smart Haul program. About a third of our truckers actually saw an increase in miles driven. And then they tend to be kind of drive freight — agriculture, livestock hauling — but about 7%, 8% of them completely shut down. So, if you're an auto hauler, you're not real busy right now.
还有一点是，正如 Tricia 提到的，不同行业受到疫情的影响差异很大。举个例子，在我们卡车保险业务中，我们通过 Smart Haul 计划收集了很好的车联网数据。大约有三分之一的卡车司机在疫情期间行驶里程反而增加了，主要是农产品、牲畜运输这类。而大约有 7% 到 8% 的司机完全停运了。如果你是运输汽车的卡车司机，那你现在的业务就很少。
And, so we monitored kind of not only kind of on a state level, on a BMT level, but we even go down to kind of industry class codes. And we see things very differently. And they will respond to that, the data continue to emerge.
因此我们不只是从州级、市场级（BMT）维度去监控数据，还细化到了行业分类代码的层面。不同类别之间的表现差异很大，而我们会根据这些不断浮现的数据做出相应调整。
Tricia Griffith
And for your question on sort of policy credits in our customer accounts, obviously, we have those April and May and we're always assessing, I went through the UBI data, we're assessing that more now on a state-by-state basis because of the different shelter in place orders and what will happen. And so going forward, I think that'll -- it'll be key for us to do what we do best in terms of by state, by channel, by product to understand the differences that have happened from COVID-19 and then react to those.
关于你问到的客户账户中的保单抵免问题，显然我们在四月和五月提供了这些抵免，而且我们一直在评估。我查阅了UBI（使用行为保险）数据，我们现在正根据不同州的居家令等情况，按州逐一评估未来可能发生的变化。因此，在未来，关键是我们要在州别、渠道、产品这几个维度上发挥我们最擅长的能力，以理解COVID-19所带来的差异，并据此做出应对。
It's hard to say what will happen from an industry perspective, because I think different companies handle it differently. But we'll go back to -- I'm really trying to understand it on a more granular level, depending on the state, the channel the product.
从整个行业角度来看未来会发生什么很难说，因为我认为不同公司处理方式不同。但我们会回到细节层面——我确实在努力从更细致的角度理解这一情况，具体取决于所在的州、渠道和产品。
Elyse Greenspan
Okay. That's helpful. And then my second question, you guys gave some good data in terms of seeing, miles driven by down around 14%. Last weekend, I think you said relative to kind of pre-COVID levels and then Monday 20 to 25, right? So still varying but not down as much as I guess like the tail end of March.
好的，这很有帮助。那我第二个问题是，你们提供了一些不错的数据，比如行驶里程下降了大约14%。上个周末你们说是相对于COVID之前的水平，然后周一下降是20%到25%，对吧？所以仍然有波动，但不像三月底那样大幅下降。
You did see April kind of in line with the end of March, or did you start to see, I guess some of this not like returned to pre-COVID levels but a little bit of a bounce back and driving levels. Did you see that towards the end of April, or is this something that you just started to see in May?
你们看到四月份的情况是否和三月底差不多？或者你们开始看到一些反弹，虽然还没有恢复到疫情前的水平，但行驶量有所回升。这种趋势是在四月底开始出现的，还是到了五月才看到的？
Tricia Griffith
That bounced back started about mid-April, mid to late April started the bounce back to about 25%. And right now, we think we're between 20 and 25. That 14% was specifically just to kind of show you like the detail that we look at for a weekend. So take Monday's data of this past Monday that was 21%. So we're right around that point. And again, it varies wildly depending on the states in terms of their restrictions. So if you look at a New York, it's very different than a Georgia. And so that's really how we're looking at it.
这波反弹大约是在四月中旬开始的，从四月中到下旬，行驶量回升到了大约25%左右。现在我们认为大致在20%到25%之间。那个14%的数据只是为了向你展示我们对周末的细致观察。以刚过去的这个周一的数据为例，当天是下降了21%。所以我们大致就在这个水平。而且，各州的限制不同，这一数字波动很大。比如说纽约的情况就和乔治亚州截然不同。这也是我们评估方式的重点。
The New York Times puts out sort of what's happening with restrictions being lifted. And we look at that and it seems to mirror some of the things we've seen. Of course, we don't have all the data that's in there, but we believe that's a correlation. So we think this next, two weeks, three weeks will be really interesting because so many states are starting to live, starting to open up and of course, depending on what happens with cases and testing that may change but I mean, just anecdotally, I was talking to Dan Mascaro, our Chief Legal Officer on Monday, and he went to hike in the metro parks in Cleveland. And he said it was so crowded.
《纽约时报》会发布有关解除限制措施的相关信息，我们会参考这些内容，而且这似乎与我们观察到的情况相吻合。当然，我们没有掌握其中的全部数据，但我们相信两者之间存在相关性。所以我们认为接下来的两三周会非常值得关注，因为很多州正在重新开放。当然，这一切还要看病例数和检测情况的变化。不过就我听来的例子来说，我周一跟我们首席法务官Dan Mascaro聊了聊，他当时去克利夫兰的市政公园徒步，结果说人多得不得了。
So you start to see this rare sunshine in Cleveland and people get out and they start to drive. And like Mike Johnson, we have a lot of theories that we play around with on my team to think about, okay, this summer, will people -- will you drive to grandma's house or to wherever versus fly? Could there be an increase in those longer trips? And of course, that has different frequency as well. So yes, I would say anywhere between right now we're seeing 20 to 25, but we started to see that mid-April.
所以一旦克利夫兰出现难得的阳光，人们就开始外出驾车了。就像Mike Johnson那样，我们团队内部也有很多假设在探讨，比如这个夏天人们会不会选择开车去看奶奶或者去别的地方，而不是坐飞机？这是否会导致长途出行的增加？当然，这也会带来不同的出险频率。所以是的，我会说我们目前看到的范围大致在20%到25%之间，而且这一趋势是从四月中旬开始的。
Operator
Our next question comes from Meyer Shields with KBW.
接下来是来自KBW的Meyer Shields的提问。
Meyer Shields
I had a question about the premium median fees because I remember, in the past tracking non-payment of premium was itself an underwriting tool and I'm wondering whether that visibility is being dampened by obviously, I think necessary grace period extension?
我想问一个关于保费中位数费用的问题。我记得过去追踪未缴保费本身就是一个核保工具。我在想，这种可见性是否因为（我认为是必要的）宽限期延长而被削弱了？
Tricia Griffith
Not sure if I understand your question. John, you want to take that?
我不太确定是否理解了你的问题。John，你要来回答一下吗？
John Sauerland
I think that I can try. If I'm off-base what are you trying to get to please redirect. So we do perhaps look at payment patterns on current and incoming customers as a portion of a set of data that we look at when we are underwriting both new business as well as renewals. Is that the direction you're taking the question?
我可以尝试回答一下。如果我理解错了你的意图，请纠正。那么我们确实会将当前和新客户的付款模式视为我们在核保新业务和续保时参考的数据集的一部分。这是你问题的方向吗？
Meyer Shields
Yes. In other words, is it less predictive now?
是的。换句话说，它现在的预测能力是否下降了？
John Sauerland
Yes. So that's a great question. And similarly with our snapshot data patterns have changed dramatically relative to fairly normal and very predictable datasets over time. So, yes, that will be a challenge for us. We are making exceptions in our underwriting today around new businesses, especially where we can pull data sets from common sources that the industry contributes to look at previous insurance ownership patterns. And, yes, that's been disrupted. And in the near term, I think it's fair to say, there will be a period where we probably have to exclude over the longer term run. I think the snapshot or vehicle usage based data will fall into the same camp. So it's really difficult to read right now. But you're right that is a underwriting variable that we have used and I would say in the interim, we are redirecting a bit. But in the long-term, we think we will continue to use that -- the underwriting we've done we think, has been a huge benefit to us in terms of avoiding new business that we probably are going to price accurately.
是的，这是个好问题。同样的情况也出现在我们的Snapshot驾驶行为数据上——与过去正常且高度可预测的数据集相比，模式发生了巨大变化。所以这对我们来说确实是一个挑战。我们目前在新业务核保上正在做一些例外处理，特别是当我们可以从行业共享的数据源中提取到过去的投保记录时。但是现在这方面的数据确实受到了干扰。我认为，在短期内我们可能不得不将这些变量暂时排除，而从长期来看，我认为Snapshot或基于车辆使用的数据也属于同一类变量。目前很难解读这些数据。但你说得对，这确实是我们过去使用的核保变量，而在目前阶段我们在做一些调整。但从长期看，我们还是会继续使用它。我们认为我们的核保策略让我们在定价准确的新业务筛选方面受益良多。
Tricia Griffith
Yes. Sorry about that Meyer. I wasn't sure about it. But, yes, I think we'll continue to use that. And I think it's also only one variable that we use when we look at the sort of holistic rates to risk. But again, during these times, there's going to be a lot of data that will skew things that we'll have to kind of understand as we think about pricing and risks going forward.
是的，抱歉Meyer，我刚才没太确定你问的是哪部分。但没错，我认为我们还是会继续使用这一变量的。同时这只是我们在评估整体费率与风险关系时用到的众多变量之一。不过在目前这种特殊时期，会有很多数据偏离正常水平，我们需要理解这些偏差，以便为未来的定价和风险判断做好准备。
Meyer Shields
Thanks. That was clear. So that's very helpful. The second question, as we seen the claim frequency decline, is there any offset in terms of maybe the gap between pre-virus average speeds and how people are driving now?
谢谢，这次解释很清楚，非常有帮助。第二个问题是，鉴于我们看到理赔率在下降，那么是否存在一些对冲因素，比如疫情前的平均车速和当前驾驶行为之间的差异？
Tricia Griffith
I've seen a lot of data around speeds and anecdotally driving here today, there was a lot of people that were going really fast because there weren't very many on the highway. So I kind of made a note of that. What we've observed is, so we looked at hard brakes for 100 miles driven and the percentage of trips with time with their phone in their hand, we've seen that increase about 10% to 15% after the post-COVID-19. So it could suggest that the miles are riskier. We are not seeing that in the claims data yet. So we're going to be watching that closely.
我确实看到很多关于车速的数据，也有一些亲身的观察，比如我今天开车过来时注意到很多人开得特别快，因为高速公路上车很少。我特意记下了这一点。我们观察到的是——我们看了每100英里中“急刹车”的次数，以及驾驶过程中“手持手机”的比例，发现COVID-19之后这些行为上升了大约10%到15%。这可能表明行驶里程的风险在上升。不过我们目前还没有在理赔数据中看到明显体现。所以我们会密切关注这一趋势。
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Brian Meredith with UBS.
[接下来的提问来自UBS的Brian Meredith。]
Brian Meredith
Couple of questions here for you. First, I'm curious, I know it's a real new product here for you. But the Atlas product, does it have business interruption coverage in it? And if so, do you have virus exclusions in there as well, and this situation at all, make you think about the design of your product and potentially changing it?
我有几个问题。首先，我很好奇，虽然这对你们来说是个全新的产品，但你们的Atlas产品中是否包含营业中断险？如果有，那是否也包含病毒相关的除外条款？此外，这次的情况是否让你们重新考虑产品设计并可能做出调整？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I think you'd refer to as our Bob product Atlas service, yes, behind it. Yes. Well, so for Bob products, we have less than 200 of those policies that have business interruption insurance, and we have an exclusion for damages caused by virus or bacteria in those. We use ISO verbiage. So we feel like our risk is very, very low, less than 200 policies and we have an exclusion.
是的，我想你指的是我们名为Bob的产品，即Atlas服务背后的那一款。对于Bob产品，我们目前只有不到200份保单包含营业中断保险，而且这类保单中明确有病毒或细菌引起损害的除外条款。我们使用的是ISO标准措辞。因此我们认为我们的风险非常非常低——不到200份保单，并且明确包含除外条款。
I do want to say as long as we're talking about this, as a leader in the U.S., P&C marketplace, we're very actively involved in ensuring the COVID pandemic doesn't result in legislative or regulatory actions that permanently damage the voluntary insurance market and slow our nation's economic recovery. The U.S. markets heavily regulated and we want to ensure carriers provide essential products that comply with the applicable regulations. So when they're developing and filing these program, the voluntary insurance market relies heavily, we rely heavily on contracts sanctity, and that's a really important piece that we believe in.
既然说到这个，我还想补充一点，作为美国财产险市场的领导者之一，我们非常积极地参与相关事务，以确保COVID疫情不会引发可能永久损害自愿保险市场的立法或监管行动，进而拖慢国家经济复苏的步伐。美国市场受到高度监管，我们希望确保保险公司所提供的核心产品都符合相关法规要求。在产品设计和申报过程中，自愿保险市场高度依赖合同的神圣性，而这正是我们非常坚信的一个重要原则。
And we have to ensure that so that we have adequate prices for all included exposures. So when you think about the economic damage that is, is tragic for small business, we don't believe that fabricating coverage that doesn't exist on insurance policies is the right solution for this problem. That said, we have little exposure if any but as an industry, we feel very passionate about the fact of contract sanctity.
我们必须维护这一原则，才能确保所有涉及的风险都有合理的价格支撑。虽然这次疫情对小企业造成的经济损失确实是悲剧性的，但我们不认为“虚构保单中本不存在的保障责任”是解决这个问题的正确方式。话虽如此，我们自身几乎没有这方面的风险敞口，但作为一个行业，我们对维护合同神圣性这一点非常坚定。
Brian Meredith
And then another quick question here, with respect to your homeowners product and just curious, how do you deal with a situation where the insurance payment is tied with a mortgage and with respect to mortgage forbearance, so it may not be your decision with respect to -- when ultimately the insurance payment comes in. Could be that just the bank extending mortgage prevents?
还有一个简短的问题，关于你们的房主保险产品。我想了解一下，在保险付款是通过房贷渠道支付的情况下，如果遇到房贷延期（forbearance）问题，保险付款的时间点可能就不取决于你们了。是否存在银行因为延期房贷付款，从而影响保险费支付的情况？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I don't know if I have a specific answer to that. Normally, when it's part of the mortgage, it's less likely to not be paid because it has to be part of that and so it's just a pass-through.
是的，我不确定是否有一个特别具体的答案。通常来说，如果保险费用是房贷的一部分，那它就比较不容易被拖欠，因为它必须包含在里面，所以本质上是个“转付”过程。
John Sauerland
Yes. It's generally paid up front, in the mortgage. So while, the forbearance might postpone payments to the bank, generally speaking, the insurance hasn't paid upfront in that situation.
是的，通常这类费用在房贷中是预先支付的。所以尽管房贷延期可能会推迟客户向银行付款的时间，但在这种情况下保险费一般早就已经付清了。
Brian Meredith
Now I get that but I mean, if it's part of you would get -- you wouldn't necessarily get the mortgage forbearance and you may not necessarily get your premium?
我明白这个，但我的意思是：如果房贷延期影响到了相关流程，你们也不一定能收到保费，对吧？
John Sauerland
While the premium again is generally speaking, paid upfront, so then the payment from the customer to the bank, the bank would be in that case, short on the money because the bank is generally recorded the entire insurance premium to us at the inception of that policy.
不过再次强调，保费通常是预付的。所以如果客户后续没还钱，那是银行的资金缺口——因为银行在保单生效初期就已经把整年的保险费支付给了我们。
John Sauerland
Yes. They would have collected via escrow and put a year of homeowners insurance aside exactly for these types of either late payments or forbearance, to escrow directly.
是的，银行会通过托管账户（escrow）事先收取，并预留出一整年的房主保险费用，正是为了应对这类延期付款或暂缓付款的情况。这笔费用已经由托管账户提前安排好了。
Brian Meredith
Perfect, perfect. And just one quick one. How do you think about [indiscernible] in these types of situations?
太好了，清楚了。还有一个简短的问题，在这类特殊情况中你们是如何看待[indiscernible]的？
Tricia Griffith
Well, I'd have to watch it. I know we have a lot of history. But no history is like this. And so we look back and times like -- during the financial crisis, et cetera. And so we'll just have to follow the trends and then we're after them.
嗯，这得持续观察。我知道我们有很多过往经验，但没有哪次历史能和这次相比。所以我们会回顾以往，比如金融危机时的情况等。然后我们会根据趋势，跟进应对。
Julia Hornack
Yes. If you let Yaron Kinar into the question please.
好的，请允许Yaron Kinar提出接下来的问题。
Operator
Thank you. Mr. Yaron, your line open.
谢谢。Yaron先生，您的线路已接通。
Yaron Kinar
A couple of questions. One, you mentioned that frequency has started to pick up from its mid-March to mid-April trough. Have you seen any change in severity corresponding to that change?
我有几个问题。首先，你们提到事故频率自3月中旬到4月中旬的低谷之后开始回升。那么，与此相应，你们是否也观察到事故严重程度（severity）方面的变化？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. The severity has been a little bit different for us. First of all, we report incurred trends instead of paid trends. So for frequency, the incurred is more responsive and for severity both incurred and paid are more impacted by sudden changes in data. And so that may not be a true reflection of our trends. So, my opinion on severity right now, I can't necessarily tell, partly because the incurred counts distort the severity trends.
是的，我们在事故严重程度上确实看到了一些变化。首先，我们报告的是“已发生”（incurred）趋势，而不是“已支付”（paid）趋势。对于事故频率来说，incurred趋势反应更灵敏；而对于严重程度，incurred和paid都会受到数据突变的影响，所以这可能并不能准确反映出实际趋势。因此，我现在很难明确判断severity的真实情况，部分原因是incurred数量会扭曲严重程度的趋势判断。
Let me give you an example. So our property damage for the quarter was about 14% on severity trends. We think about 9 points to that, how to deal with trends that we've been seeing in the past, total loss repairables. What we think of the other 5% is really applied to supplement dollars that came in March from prior months, subrogation dollars from other companies from prior months. And when you apply those to March, they increase the encouraged severity. So we think that trend is a little bit different during the times where we have less incoming volume because the mix changed. So we do think that distorts that a little bit.
我举个例子：本季度我们的车损险（property damage）在severity趋势上约为14%。我们认为其中大约9个百分点是源自过去我们就已经观察到的趋势，比如全损与可修复车辆的比例变化。而另外5%的上升主要来自于三月份入账的补充费用——这些补充费用来自于前几个月，比如补充理赔款、其他保险公司支付的代位追偿款（subrogation）。当这些金额被归入三月份时，会推高那个月的incurred severity。因此我们认为在进件量减少的时候（incoming volume下降），组合结构会发生变化，从而让这种趋势有所偏离。所以我们确实认为这会带来一定的扭曲。
John Sauerland
At the bodily injury severity even more generally speaking, as our inventory ages are reserving factors are such that we increase the expected cost of an injury claim, the older it gets. And we put those dollars into the current loss dollars each month, we're dividing by the incurred accounts for that month. So, to the extent new volume coming in is lower and we continue that inventory ageing on bodily injury and current severity trend is going to look higher.
在伤害险（bodily injury）的严重程度方面，情况更明显。一般来说，随着我们的案件存量逐渐“变老”（即赔案未结时间延长），我们在准备金评估中会调高对伤害类赔案的预期赔付金额。我们每月都会将这些金额计入当月的损失（loss）中，然后除以该月的incurred案件数量。因此，如果新进案件数量减少，而旧案仍在继续“老化”，那么当前的severity趋势看起来就会偏高。
Tricia Griffith
Right. If you look at the quarter for bodily injury, it was about 9% and through February was 5%. We know that in March fewer incoming which increased the age like Jon said, there were more attorney but less lawsuits. So we think with our average age increasing the encouraged severity would be better than February.
是的，如果你看本季度的伤害险（bodily injury）严重程度，大约是9%，而截至2月时是5%。我们知道3月的新进案件变少，这就像Jon刚才说的，会导致整体案件“变老”。同时，律师介入的比例增加了，但诉讼数量减少了。因此我们认为，随着案件平均年龄的增长，incurred severity 的上升幅度也会高于2月的水平。
Yaron Kinar
Okay. So maybe I'll try else for a different angle, as miles driven or increase your number of trips is increasing again from the mid-March trough. Are you seeing speeding decreasing and maybe distracted driving decreasing?
好的，那我换个角度问一下。从3月中旬的低谷以来，行驶里程和出行次数都在增加。那么你们是否看到超速或分心驾驶的情况有所减少？
Tricia Griffith
Well, we talked about the hard braking and the phone in hand. So we have seen that increase, about 10% to 15%. But we have not seen that result in greater claims costs.
我们前面提到过“急刹车”和“手持手机”的数据。这些行为大约上升了10%到15%。但我们还没有看到这导致了理赔成本的上升。
Yaron Kinar
Okay. And then my follow up is on new business that you mentioned in the Q that you saw a significant drop off in new business in, even the direct channel and in the COVID environment. Does that surprise you? And would you expect that to maybe pick up as people -- maybe as the environment stabilizes?
好的，我还有一个跟进问题。你们在财报中提到，在COVID环境下，新业务量显著下降，甚至在直销渠道也是如此。这对你们来说是否意外？你们是否预期，随着外部环境逐渐稳定，这些业务会有所回升？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I didn't surprise us. We didn't really know how deep the initial decrease would be. But we've already seen it pick up from pre-COVID and specifically in the direct channel.
是的，但这并不让我们感到意外。我们当时只是无法预判初期下降幅度会有多大。不过目前我们已经看到业务量回升到了COVID前的水平，尤其是在直销渠道上。
Operator
Our next question comes from Stephen Mead with Anchor Capital Advisors.
下一位提问的是来自Anchor Capital Advisors的Stephen Mead。
Stephen Mead
What do you see in terms of post-COVID from the standpoint of distribution, either direct or through the agency channel? And do you see that this period is going to in a sense, hurt the agency in spite of distribution and what kinds of adjustments are you looking at?
从分销的角度来看，无论是直销渠道还是代理渠道，你们对COVID之后的情况怎么看？你们是否认为这一时期会在某种程度上伤害代理渠道？你们正在考虑采取哪些调整措施？
Tricia Griffith
And so we are a big advocate of the agency challenge since half our business on the auto side more so on the commercial side, you're part of it, part of the decrease and then a little bit slower the increase in agency channel, just has to do with a lot of times people want to go in, sit knee to knee talk with their agents. On the small business, it's -- a lot of the society what's going on with COVID-19. But we're very supportive. And that's why we've been trying to find grants for the industry and then grants for individual agents that, that call us. So because we obviously have social distancing, our sales reps are making calls daily to our agents making sure they have what they need, we've responded to get some of them computers and printers and things they need to work out of their home. So I think, that they will try to get back to business as soon as the shelter in place are lifted in their areas. I can't tell you, if there'll be people that don't actually last through this. We certainly hope they do. And we're going to do everything we can to support that channel and all of our 35,000 independent agents.
我们一直非常支持代理渠道，毕竟我们在汽车保险方面有一半的业务来自这个渠道，商业保险部分更多。所以，代理渠道的业务下降，以及复苏速度相对较慢，很大程度上是因为很多人还是喜欢面对面地坐下来和代理人交流。而对于小企业来说，COVID-19对整个社会带来了很大影响。我们非常支持代理渠道，这也是为什么我们一直在努力为整个行业争取拨款，也为那些联系我们的个别代理人提供资助。由于社交距离限制，我们的销售代表每天都在与代理人联系，确保他们有需要的资源，比如我们已经为一些代理提供了在家办公所需的电脑和打印机等设备。我认为，一旦各地解除居家令，他们会努力尽快恢复业务。当然，我无法确定是否会有部分代理坚持不过这段时期，但我们真心希望他们都能挺过来，我们也会尽我们所能支持这一渠道以及我们所有的3.5万名独立代理人。
巴菲特的假设保险是个同质化的产品，价格上竞争激烈，全行业的ROE低于全美企业的平均水平，定位上保持不亏就行，盈利的重点是浮存金的投资收益。
John Sauerland
On the direct side as we pointed out in the Q, advertising was up a lot for January, February, I believe 28%, down a bit in March. And Pat can maybe comment a bit more. We are a large advertiser on live sports. And obviously spend there dropped to virtually nil, overnight. And so that is part of the reason our advertising spend for March is recorded less than 2% relative to previous March.
至于直销渠道，正如我们在财报中提到的，一月和二月的广告支出增长非常大，我记得是增长了28%，但到了三月略有下降。Pat可能可以补充一下。我们是体育赛事直播广告上的大投放者，而这些赛事基本在一夜之间全面停摆，所以那部分广告支出几乎归零。这也是为什么我们三月的广告支出同比去年三月下降到不到2%的一个原因。
That said, the desire to grow and the direct channel and we'll spend, what we call allowables and I think are continuing to find opportunities.
话虽如此，我们对直销渠道的增长仍然抱有强烈意愿，并会继续花费“可控预算”（allowables），并持续寻找合适的增长机会。
Pat Callahan
Yes. I would build on that and just say that in the direct side, specifically, we are constantly evolving our media mix and testing and measuring into what's efficient and effective driving demand. So while we did see that that [trough] [ph] appropriately so focused on other things in car insurance, We are shifting to some more over the top in streaming services that people spend more time at home, some more digital than necessarily the mass media and finding select programming that we see significant spikes in viewership that we want to have Progressive brand position well.
是的，我再补充一下。在直销渠道方面，我们不断在调整媒体组合，不断测试和评估哪些方式更有效、更具效率地驱动需求。虽然我们确实看到在需求低谷时，人们的关注点不再是车险是完全可以理解的，但我们也在将投放转向更多流媒体平台（over-the-top），因为人们现在宅在家里的时间更多；我们也加大了数字渠道投入，相对于传统大众媒体，并且我们会选择一些观众量明显飙升的节目，以确保Progressive品牌能够有良好曝光。
Now, on the agency channel, I think everything that Tricia said is absolutely spot on. The other thing to recognize is that that agents for the most part are small businesses. And the disruption to small businesses can't be overestimated and we do expect that the agency channel will come back just as strong as it was previously. And I think some of the digital capabilities that Progressive has invested in to help agents, both service customers and in the case of our snapshot usage based insurance program control their costs or match their costs to their driving will potentially position us well, to benefit from that rebound in the agency channel over time.
至于代理渠道，我认为Tricia说得非常准确。还有一点要指出的是，大多数代理人本身就是小企业主。而这次疫情对小企业造成的冲击是无法低估的。我们确实预期，代理渠道最终会强势回归。而Progressive之前在数字化能力方面的投资，比如帮助代理人更好地为客户服务，在我们Snapshot驾驶行为保险项目中帮助他们控制成本、根据客户驾驶行为匹配保险费用等，这些都会在代理渠道复苏过程中为我们提供有力的支持。
Tricia Griffith
And a great part of our CRM organization is that they take service calls on behalf of the agents. So even if they're at home, we're able to talk those agent customers through the same sort of situations as our direct customers.
我们CRM团队的一大优势在于，他们可以代表代理人接听客户服务电话。所以即使代理人目前在家办公，我们也能像对待直销客户一样，协助他们的客户处理各类问题。
Stephen Mead
And just shifting gears. Any change or what's your sort of view of the investment side of your portfolio in terms of asset allocation or your approach to the fixed income side of investment? I'd be curious what you're doing, if anything?
换个话题，你们在投资组合方面，特别是在资产配置或固定收益投资的策略上，有没有什么变化？我很好奇你们目前是否在做出什么调整？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, I'll let Jonathan Bauer, who is our PCM President talk a little bit more about this. So, we talked a lot about their ability to protect the balance sheet and to get a total return that is compared to our index group. So that has not changed. Our philosophy on investing hasn't changed. Jonathan's been able to take advantage of sort of what's been happening in the economy and I'll let him give you a little bit of detail. And I will say risk, it's slight any risks that we've added during this situation. Jon?
是的，这部分我会请我们的投资管理公司（PCM）总裁Jonathan Bauer来进一步说明。我们一直强调他们保护资产负债表的能力，并追求与基准相比有竞争力的总回报。这一点没有改变，我们的投资理念也没有改变。Jonathan也很好地把握了经济变化所带来的机会，他会具体介绍一些细节。我只想说，我们在当前环境中增加的风险非常有限。Jon？
Jonathan Bauer
Yes. Thanks very much for the question. So, as Tricia mentioned, for us, the focus is always number one to protect the balance sheet, so that the operating business can grow as fast as it wants to grow. And then after that, to earn the best total return that we can, we were fortunate to come into the year with a very conservative portfolio. The group one measure that we use for our riskiest assets, which is things like stocks and high yield bonds was at its post crisis lows. So when this started to happen, in late February into March, we began to invest in things as you saw in 10-Q, high quality corporate bonds, the municipal bond market, which we do to tax changes in the corporate tax rate, have not very attractive over the last two or three years, as that market faced some outflows we're able to buy some very high quality municipal bonds and then sprinkled in some securitized products as well.
谢谢你的提问。正如Tricia提到的，我们的首要目标始终是保护资产负债表的稳健性，以支持业务按自己的节奏快速增长。在此基础上，我们再追求尽可能好的总回报。我们很幸运，在今年年初时我们的投资组合非常保守。我们用于衡量风险资产（比如股票和高收益债）的“Group One”比例处于金融危机后的最低水平。所以当2月底至3月初市场开始剧烈波动时，我们开始逐步加仓——正如你在10-Q中看到的那样，我们配置了高质量的公司债。同时，由于过去两三年里企业所得税变化导致市政债市场吸引力下降，在该市场出现资金流出的时候，我们得以买入一些非常优质的市政债券。此外我们也适度配置了一些证券化产品。
都是一些愚蠢的策略。
So we decided to add within what we would label as high quality and the fixed income throughout the month of March, starting in late February. We think our position is still incredibly conservative in our portfolio, but we think that we got some great total return opportunities. And I think we stand in a really strong place as we head in through the second quarter.
因此我们在2月底至3月期间，选择在高质量的固定收益领域内适度加仓。我们认为目前的投资组合依然非常保守，但我们也抓住了一些极具吸引力的总回报机会。我认为，随着我们进入第二季度，我们的投资组合处于一个非常稳健有力的位置。
Operator
Our next question comes from Philip Stefano with Deutsche Bank.
下一位提问的是来自德意志银行的Philip Stefano。
Philip Stefano
Why don't you talk a little more about the operating expenses maybe we can put aside the advertising expenses, it feels like a pretty well covered. But are there just discretionary expenses in the business or levers that you can pull down at a time like this to maybe help support the expense ratio improvements that may come back next year or at least to offset some of the increases in allowance for doubtful expenses or other things like that to maybe neutralize the upside expense pressures, you might be seeing.
你能多讲讲运营费用方面的情况吗？广告支出部分我们已经讨论得很充分了，可以先放一边。那么在当前这种情况下，公司是否有一些可控的支出或可以动用的“杠杆”，帮助支持未来费用率的改善，或者至少抵消坏账准备等上升所带来的成本压力？
Tricia Griffith
I think we always have different levers. And I think you've seen in the past when things have happened, where we've gotten closer to our 96, we've done that we're really not in that position now because of the margins. And like we talked about, we have the expense for 28 points for the doubtful accounts. And we'll watch and see how that continues to impact us through April. We are always looking at expenses and how to do more with less, et cetera. This is an odd-time, but I think once we get through this and things are back to normal and claims frequencies back to normal we will continue with our expense management. A lot of this, we learned about how many people work from home.
我认为我们始终有很多可调节的“杠杆”。你也看到过去一旦我们接近96的综合成本率时，我们确实采取了行动。但目前我们还没有处于那个状态，因为利润空间还在。正如之前提到的，我们因为坏账准备多了28个基点的费用。我们会持续关注这种影响在四月份的演变。我们一直在优化成本结构，努力用更少的资源做更多的事情。虽然这是一个非常特殊的时期，但我相信一旦我们度过这段时间，随着理赔频率恢复正常，我们会继续推进成本管理。其中一个关键收获就是关于远程办公的经验。
And so initially, before the COVID happened, we probably had maybe about 10,000 of our employees or 43,000 employees working from home now we have 95%. As we think about returning, there could be an advantage for real estate, because many of those people will be very efficient and effective working from home, it would be better for them. So those all the things like that we will look at. And when I talked about that, sort of that third tranche of how we think about the future, we have five different teams working out what we call reimagine. And one of those is based -- it really talks about expenses and people and the workforce.
在疫情之前，我们大约有43,000名员工中只有1万人在家办公，现在则有95%的员工在远程工作。当我们考虑未来复工计划时，会发现这对我们的房地产配置可能是个利好——因为很多员工在家办公的效率甚至更高，也更适合他们自己。这类因素我们都会纳入考量。我曾提到过我们对未来的“第三阶段”规划，目前我们有五个工作组在推进一项叫“Reimagine”的战略计划，其中一个组专注的就是成本结构、人员安排和整体劳动力体系。
And so we will look at all these things that happen and then figure out how to come out on the better end. As an example, when I was -- when during the financial crisis, I was the President of Claims and we have same situation were the frequency had diminished during that timeframe. And that's when we started learning about being able to do things virtually that you didn't have to be sitting necessarily in every office and we really started to consolidate and have right file, right rep right time. I believe we will learn a lot from these to continue to be more efficient. We care about that immensely.
我们会把当前发生的所有变化都纳入评估，并思考如何以更好的方式走出这段时期。举个例子，在金融危机时我还是理赔部门的总裁，那时我们也经历过理赔频率下降的阶段。正是从那时起，我们开始学习如何通过虚拟方式处理业务，不再需要所有人都坐在办公室里；我们开始整合资源，实现“对的案件、对的理赔人员、在对的时间处理”。我相信我们从这次疫情中也会学到很多，进一步提升效率，这是我们非常重视的。
Philip Stefano
Interesting here is a bit of picking up the ride sharing business, have there been any interesting lessons that have come out of the decline of frequency broader, had the economics of the ride sharing business changed at all?
关于网约车业务，我想顺便问一下。在这波理赔频率下降中，你们有没有得到一些启发？网约车业务的经济性是否发生了变化？
Tricia Griffith
I have to let the people that run the ride sharing companies talk about that. We continue to be very happy with our relationships. And as you saw -- we had decrease in net premium written over about over 110 million on the commercial side. That wasn't surprising because we look at miles driven during a given policy period, and then we kind of trued that up with extra miles.
这个问题我觉得要由网约车公司自己来回答。但我们目前对我们与他们的合作关系还是非常满意的。正如你看到的，在商业保险这一块，我们的承保保费下降了大约1.1亿美元左右。这并不令人意外，因为我们会根据保单期内的行驶里程来调整保费，并且对额外里程进行“调整结算”。
And it's just clear right now, in fact those companies are saying you shouldn't necessarily drive. So I think, we'll watch and see if that comes back. And it really all depends, I think on how quickly once the shelter in place orders are lifted and people feel comfortable and more importantly vaccine. So I can't predict the future. But I'm not surprised that the decreases based on the restrictions in the States.
现在情况很明确，实际上那些网约车公司自己都在告诉司机——你现在不一定非要出车。因此我们还要继续观察这一业务是否会反弹。我认为这完全取决于各州居家令解除的速度、人们的信心恢复情况，更重要的是疫苗的进展。我无法预测未来，但就目前各州的限制而言，业务下滑并不令人意外。
Julia Hornack
Great. So Jake, we'll go ahead and take our next question from Mike Zaremski.
很好。那我们现在请Jake接入下一位提问者，来自Mike Zaremski。
Operator
Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.
谢谢，请开始提问。
Mike Zaremski
My question and if I missed this, just please tell me, was on telematics, are you seeing any changes in adoption rates. And also does your telematics data give you any kind of potential competitive advantages with filings as we kind of come out of this, in certain states that might allow you to take in telematics data to kind of be more precise or agile in your filings in the future? Thanks.
我想问的是关于远程信息处理技术（telematics）的问题，如果你们已经讲过了请直接告诉我。你们是否看到采用率出现变化？另外，在我们逐渐走出疫情的过程中，你们的telematics数据是否能在某些州为你们在报备费率时带来竞争优势？比如让你们更精准、更灵活地进行费率调整？谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Pat, you can weigh in on this and John B even on your with your smart haul. We've seen the adoption, I think people are more willing to adopt UBI because they realize they may be driving less and that would be a good program for them. So we're hoping that continues, because we believe this is a really very powerful variable. There are some states that we are not able to use it, but those it's only a few. So we'll continue to have usage based insurance and we will continue to learn from it. So we're not sitting still and saying, we're going to stop at, UBI 2.0. We're going to continue to evolve that as we do everything.
Pat，你可以补充一下，还有John B，你也可以谈谈Smart Haul那边的情况。我们确实看到采用率上升，我认为人们现在更愿意接受基于使用情况的保险（UBI），因为他们意识到自己可能开车变少了，而这正是适合他们的保险计划。所以我们希望这种趋势会持续下去，因为我们相信UBI是一个非常有力的定价变量。有些州目前我们还不能使用这种数据，但这样的州只是少数。我们会继续推行UBI，并不断从中学习。我们不会就此止步于UBI 2.0，我们会像对待其他所有技术一样，持续改进它。
On the commercial side, it has been great like John Barbagallo said, we're able to understand that a third of our truckers are driving more summer driving number able to work with them to kind of get through this. And we're able to help support those truckers, and give them the discounts they deserve with that program or continue to evolve that program as well with something we call PROVIEW. That will be rolling out in this quarter. So we were very bullish on telematics across our entire company on both the private passenger auto and commercial side. So do you have anything to add, Pat?
在商用车方面，情况也非常好，就像John Barbagallo说的那样，我们能够了解到三分之一的卡车司机在夏季行驶里程有所上升，我们可以据此与他们协作，共同应对当前挑战。我们通过该计划为这些司机提供了他们应得的折扣，我们还会继续通过一款名为PROVIEW的新产品来推进这个计划，这将在本季度推出。所以我们对telematics在公司层面上的整体前景非常看好，无论是在私家车还是商用车领域。Pat，你还有补充吗？
Pat Callahan
Sure. On the personal line side, exactly, as you mentioned that we have a lot of monitoring that's in place and we've seen some survey data that indicates that people are now more open to usage based insurance, so that potentially will drive adoption and help primarily in the agency channel where we still lag behind our direct channel adoption.
当然。从个人车险这边来看，正如你说的，我们已经部署了大量的监控系统，而且我们看到的一些调研数据显示，人们现在对UBI的接受度更高了。这可能会进一步推动采用率的上升，尤其是在目前我们在代理渠道的UBI采用率仍落后于直销渠道的情况下，这将有很大帮助。
But beyond that, we've also seen a higher take rate within our quoting funnel. So not surprising that people are looking to think a little more about getting a benefit from driving less and if they are thinking and looking forward to working from home for an extended period of time, they may think of Progressive as a leader and usage-based insurance as a good choice for them as they think about their future insurance needs.
除此之外，我们还观察到在报价流程中的UBI选择率也有所提升。这并不令人意外，因为很多人现在会认真考虑减少出行是否能带来保费上的节省。如果他们预计未来长期在家办公，那么他们可能会认为Progressive是UBI方面的领先者，UBI将是他们未来保险需求中一个不错的选择。
Now, from the state level filing perspective, one of the toughest decisions we have to make is with the uncertainty how we're pricing policies on a going forward basis. And I think Tricia highlighted some of the detail level data that we have. Our snapshot program gives us hundreds of thousands of daily monitored drivers across the country. And what that gives us at the state and DMA level is visibility into not only how is the recovery actually taking place, but then correlating those miles travelled with our actual claims data.
从州级报备的角度来说，当前最困难的决策之一是：面对不确定性，我们如何为未来的保单定价。Tricia刚才提到，我们拥有的细致数据提供了帮助。我们的Snapshot项目每天可追踪全国成千上万名驾驶员。这使得我们能够在州以及DMA（指定市场区域）级别上，不仅观察到复苏的进展，还能将行驶里程数据与我们的真实理赔数据进行关联分析。
And that's a really important thing to understand because the ramp down of miles was so quick that we saw them highly correlated when they ramped down, what we need to watch is on the recovery side, does the time a day and day a week of those vehicle miles travelled correlate with higher frequency events, so that we can price policies accurately going forward.
这点非常关键，因为当行驶里程迅速下降时，我们观察到事故频率与之高度相关。接下来我们要重点关注的是，在复苏过程中，不同时间段和不同星期天数的行驶里程是否与事故频率高度相关，这将帮助我们在未来实现更精准的定价。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Pat. And Jon will you talk a little bit about smart haul and?
谢谢你，Pat。Jon，你能简单谈一下Smart Haul吗？
John Barbagallo
So Mike, I would say on the commercial side, we're still fairly early in the adoption phase of both of our telematics products, Smart Haul’s been out there longer. It has been very well received and had been doing very well. I can't at this point say has the adoption rate increase due to COVID. But I think one of the things we're learning with this pandemic is, truckers are affected very differently by what's happening. And this actually gives us the ability to kind of proactively have a conversation with them about making use of space adjustments their rate. We think that's something that has the marketing power beyond just what we're going through right now. So excited about that.
Mike，在商用车领域，我们的两个telematics产品目前仍处于相对早期的采用阶段，Smart Haul推出时间较早，市场反响一直很好，运行情况也很不错。现在还不能明确说COVID是否提升了它的采用率。但我们从这次疫情中学到的一点是，卡车司机受到的影响与其他群体非常不同。而Smart Haul使我们能够主动与他们沟通，根据实际情况动态调整费率。我们认为，这种灵活性不仅仅在当前环境下有优势，在未来也具备很强的市场推广潜力，因此我们对此非常乐观。
Snapshot PROVIEW very early in the adoption phase that's more than just telematics base pricing and brings with it a host of additional services. We're pleased with how that's going as well. Of course, overall demand has dropped, as I mentioned earlier, but again, nothing there to suggest it would interfere with the adoption on that program. But, again, I couldn't tell you it's going to accelerate at this point in time, but we'll be curious to see how that plays out.
至于Snapshot PROVIEW，它仍处于非常早期的推广阶段，它不仅是一个基于telematics的定价方案，还包含一系列附加服务。我们对目前的推进情况也很满意。当然，如我之前提到的，总体市场需求有所下降，但没有迹象表明这会影响该项目的采纳。目前还无法确定它是否会加速普及，但我们非常期待接下来的发展。
Julia Hornack
That would appear to have been our final question, actually. So that concludes our event. Jake, I will hand the call back over to you for the closing script.
看起来这已经是今天的最后一个问题了。所以我们今天的会议就此结束。Jake，我把电话交还给你进行会议结语。
Operator
Thank you, ma'am. That concludes the Progressive Corporation's first quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's Web site for the next year. You may now disconnect.
谢谢女士。Progressive公司第一季度投资者会议到此结束。会议重播将在公司官网的投资者关系页面上提供，保存时间为一年。您现在可以断开连接了。
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