2020-11-04 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q3 2020 Earnings Conference Call November 4, 2020 9:30 AM ET

Company Participants

Doug Constantine - Director of Investor Relations

Tricia Griffith - Chief Executive Officer

John Sauerland - Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Mike Zaremski - Credit Suisse

Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo

Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan

Greg Peters - Raymond James

Michael Phillips - Morgan Stanley

Gary Ransom - Dowling & Partners

Yaron Kinar - Goldman Sachs

David Motemaden - Evercore ISI

Meyer Shields - KBW

Brian Meredith - UBS

Josh Shanker - Bank of America

Suneet Kamath - Citi Research

Operator

主持人

Welcome to The Progressive Corporation’s Third Quarter Investor Event. The company will not make detailed comments related to quarterly results in addition to those provided in its quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website, and we’ll use this event to respond to questions.

欢迎参加 Progressive Corporation 第三季度投资者活动。除已发布于公司网站的 10-Q 季报和致股东信中所载信息外，公司不会就季度业绩作出更多详细评论，本次活动将用于回答提问。

Acting as moderator for the event will be Progressive's Director of Investor Relations, Doug Constantine. At this time, I’ll turn the event over to Mr. Constantine.

本次活动由 Progressive 投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine 主持。下面把会议交给 Constantine 先生。

Doug Constantine

Thank you, James, and good morning. Although, our quarterly investor relations events typically includes a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes scheduled for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of leadership team. Questions can only be asked by telephone dial-in participants. The dial-in instructions may be found at investors.progressive.com/events.

谢谢你，James，大家早上好。虽然我们的季度投资者活动通常会就业务某一部分进行专题介绍，但今天的 60 分钟将由首席执行官作开场发言，并与管理团队成员进行问答环节。只有通过电话接入的与会者才能提问。拨入说明见 investors.progressive.com/events。

As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event.

与往常一样，本次讨论可能包含前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，受多种风险和不确定性影响，实际事件和结果可能与今日讨论内容存在重大差异。

Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K and our first, second and third quarter's quarterly report on Form 10-Q, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, Safe Harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of challenges we face.

关于这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们的 2019 年 10-K 年报及第一、二、三季度的 10-Q 季报，其中讨论了影响业务的风险因素、前瞻性声明的安全港说明以及我们面临的其他挑战。

In particular, note that our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the first quarter includes discussions of the risks and uncertainties that we face, including specific risk factors arising directly and indirectly from the COVID-19 pandemic and these risks are further referenced in our third quarter 10-Q.

尤其需要注意的是，我们第一季度 10-Q 季报讨论了直接或间接因 COVID-19 疫情产生的具体风险因素，这些风险也在第三季度 10-Q 中再次提及。

Before going to our first question from the conference call line, our CEO, Tricia Griffith, will make some introductory comments. Tricia?

在接听电话会议第一位提问者之前，请首席执行官 Tricia Griffith 先发表开场讲话。Tricia？

Tricia Griffith

Thanks, Doug, and good morning, everyone. It was an extremely close and not yet decided election. I thought I'd open with a few words before we get to your questions. I know that the elections are on everyone's mind, including those at Progressive.

谢谢 Doug，大家早上好。这次选举异常胶着，胜负未决。我想在回答问题前先说几句话。我知道选举牵动着每个人的心，包括 Progressive 的同事。

I think it's important that our shareholders know that we live our core values, specifically the golden rule, regardless of the candidate we support. I'm very proud that in the end, we're all united in our commitment to caring for our customers, our communities, our shareholders, and most importantly for each other.

我认为让股东了解我们始终践行核心价值观——尤其是“黄金法则”——非常重要，无论支持哪位候选人。我为大家最终能够团结一致、致力于关爱客户、社区、股东，更重要的是彼此关怀而感到自豪。

As you know, we feel strongly that our people and our culture are a significant competitive advantage for us. They're one of our four strategic pillars, and we rely on our incredible culture to get us through challenging times, and come out more focused and united than ever. This year has been no different as we move forward together.

众所周知，我们深信员工和文化是我们的重大竞争优势，这是公司四大战略支柱之一。凭借卓越文化，我们在艰难时期依旧前行，变得更加专注、团结。今年也不例外。

I thought I'd share a note that I received on Monday from an IT Group manager Scott, regarding a video I did on Unity last week. This really exemplifies who we are as a company and why we win in the marketplace. He said Tricia, I have so much to be thankful for in this year and month and there is a literal pile of things for which I'm deeply appreciative for you and your team, truly, and I know I speak for so many others I am grateful. Then he went on to share the communication that he sent to his team and these are words that are echoed by so many leaders at progressive.

我想分享周一收到的一封来自 IT 部门经理 Scott 的邮件，关于我上周制作的“团结”主题视频。这封信充分体现了我们的企业特质和市场制胜之道。他写道：Tricia，今年这个月我有太多值得感恩的事，对你和你的团队心存由衷感谢，我相信我代表了很多同事的心声。接着他分享了自己发给团队的消息，这些话也被许多 Progressive 领导者所呼应。

His note said, it's the last Tuesday in October, which means that next week marks the national election and another end to political yard sign season. Here's the sign we placed in our own yard. And the sign started with love your neighborhood it talked about loving your neighbor regardless of race, who you love, et cetera.

他写道：今天是十月最后一个星期二，下周就是全国大选，院子里的竞选标语季也将结束。这是我们自己院子里的标语，上面写着“爱你的邻里”，强调无论种族、性取向等如何，都要爱护邻居。

Conveying what we've hoped for our neighborhood, that regardless of next week's outcome, we hope that our common bond as neighbors can prevail over the differences, really an extension of the golden rule. That's not to say that it's not easy or that we’re not strong in our political convictions, but it's also to say that we strive to respect, care for and even love our neighbors regardless of their vote or other differences.

这表达了我们对社区的期望：无论下周结果如何，希望作为邻居的共同纽带能超越分歧，这正是黄金法则的延伸。并非说这很容易，或我们没有坚定的政治立场，而是说我们努力去尊重、关心，甚至爱护邻居，无论他们投给谁、彼此有何不同。

The same applies here at work with Progressive culture rooted in our core values. My DRG is committed -- direct reporting group is committed to support the diversity of our people. Please work to grow and sustain that spirit of collegiality and friendship with each other through and beyond the election.

同样的道理也适用于工作场所，Progressive 的文化扎根于核心价值观。我的直管团队致力于支持员工多样性。请大家在选举期间及之后继续培育并保持这种同僚情谊与友爱精神。

And these words really truly reflect who we are as a company and you know, being up late and in the middle of the night and this morning, I will end up after this call shooting another video today to ensure The Progressive people who may feel stressed, remain calm and focused, even though there'll be delayed results.

这些话切实反映了我们的公司文化。昨晚到今晨一直守候消息，电话会后我还会再录制一段视频，帮助感到焦虑的 Progressive 员工保持冷静专注，即便选举结果会延迟公布。

Also, tomorrow marks our Eighth Annual Keys to Progress, where we give away cars to deserving veterans. Due to restrictions on business operations for the program participants and social distancing requirements, our giveaway events will be small, but still very meaningful. All-in-all, this is another great example of giving back to our communities where we've donated over 750 vehicles in the past eight years.

此外，明天是我们第八届“Keys to Progress”公益活动，将向应得的退伍军人赠送车辆。受运营限制和社交距离要求影响，赠车规模虽小但意义重大。总体而言，这再次体现了回馈社区的精神——过去八年我们已捐赠 750 多辆车。

Being a successful business starts with our people and this quarter continues to exemplify what you can do with the right team and the right culture. As I stated in my letter, we're extremely pleased with our Q3 results. We're also acutely aware that these times are tumultuous and that we have to remain nimble as events unfold. That's really always been our strong suits.

成功企业始于员工，本季度再次证明拥有合适团队和文化能成就非凡。如我在信中所述，我们对第三季度业绩非常满意。同时我们深知当下局势动荡，必须在事件发展中保持敏捷，这一直是我们的强项。

Thank you. And with that James will take the first question

谢谢大家。下面请 James 接听第一位提问者的问题。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator

主持人

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from Credit Suisse. Go ahead, please, your line is open.

【操作说明略】第一位提问者是瑞信的 Mike Zaremski。请发言，您的线路已打开。

Mike Zaremski

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I guess, first question, I'd love to learn more about the automobile severity trends. They seem to kind of -- be kind of staying higher for longer by -- I know there is a lot of -- there's been some noise and distortions during COVID, you called some out in the Q and in the quarter, you've called some out to about subrogation. I'm trying to -- kind of just learn more. So we can kind of understand whether the underlying trend might be a little bit lower or if this is kind of the new normal, especially in the bodily injury and pip sides?

早上好，谢谢。我第一个问题是关于汽车赔付严重度（severity）趋势的。我注意到这个指标似乎一直处于较高水平。尽管新冠期间确实出现了一些波动和异常，贵司在季报中也提到了关于代位求偿（subrogation）等方面的影响。我想进一步了解，是否这些高水平是暂时性的，还是说像人身伤害（bodily injury）和 PIP（个人伤害保护）领域，这已经成为新的常态？

Tricia Griffith

Thanks Mike. Yes, let me give you some insight and it’s a little bit difficult to compare with PCI because they haven't reported Q2 yet. They're not as volatile as Q2, but let me go through a couple.

谢谢 Mike。是的，我来解释一下。这方面和 PCI 比较有些困难，因为他们还没公布第二季度数据。虽然波动性不像 Q2 那么大，但我可以说明几点。

So, when you think of PD -- it's sort of the opposite of what happened in Q2 in terms of inbound subrogation. Our supplement payments, which is inbounds sub are coming from a period of lower volume applied to a period of an increase in current volume. So, we report 3.9%, PD incurred. It's a little bit higher, if you remove that inbound sub, about four points higher. So, right around 8.5 points. So, it's a little bit higher, but clearly less than Q2 when we were at 12.7.

说到 PD（财产损失），这与 Q2 的情况几乎相反。我们的补充赔付，也就是“流入”的代位求偿，来自一个赔案量较低的时期，但现在的赔案量又回升了。所以我们报告的 PD 赔付率是 3.9%。如果不考虑这部分代位求偿影响，会高出大约 4 个百分点，接近 8.5%。虽略高，但明显低于 Q2 的 12.7%。

On collision, again the outbound sub mix is no longer driving trends. And that's of course, the money we receive in. And if you remove that sub percentage, this 6.2 goes up a little bit, that was negative in Q2. So that was very different. And it's all really about the numerator and denominator when you're having frequency changes quarter-to-quarter.

至于碰撞险方面，外部代位求偿（即我们收到的钱）已不再主导趋势。如果把这部分代位求偿剔除，报告的 6.2% 会略高。而在 Q2 是负数，差别很大。这其实和分子分母的季度频率变动密切相关。

You talked about BI, our incurred severity is similar to Q2. So, we have some aging, which we believe accounts for about two points. And then we have another one point to two points that relates to facts of loss -- loss shift. So, what we did was we took a look at quarter two of 2019 facts of loss, and then we compared that to quarter two of 2020 facts of loss.

至于你提到的人身伤害（BI），我们报告的严重度和 Q2 相似。其中有部分是赔案老化，估计占了约两个百分点；还有一到两个百分点是由于“事实损失”（即事故类型）发生了转移。我们对比了 2019 年第二季度与 2020 年第二季度的数据。

And what we're seeing, we think this is likely because of less morning congestion commute, that there are less rear end accidents. So, think I'm kind of a fender bender, that wouldn't cause much damage from a severity perspective or an injury perspective.

我们看到的趋势是，可能因为早高峰通勤减少，追尾事故数量下降。而这类轻微事故一般赔付额度低，无论是车辆损失还是人员受伤。

There are more intersection accidents, which are always more severe. So our estimates take into account the aging inflation and the facts of loss, mix shift, we believe is around 7% to 8%. So while we are reporting the 11.6%, we believe it's a little bit lower based on those two issues.

但十字路口事故变多了，而这类事故通常严重程度较高。因此我们将赔案老化、通胀和事故类型结构变化都考虑进去，估计实际影响约在 7% 至 8% 左右。所以尽管我们报告是 11.6%，但实际核心水平可能略低。

So PIP so difficult because there's so many different state mix changes. And in the severity – the higher severity space account for about two points of with those mix shifts.

PIP 的情况更复杂，因为各州政策不同，结构差异大。高严重度部分的结构变动大概影响两个百分点。

So we think that aside from New York most of the PIP states are around 6% to 7% severity. So it's not as volatile. It's still different just because of the situation with COVID and vehicle miles traveled and different loss patterns. But hopefully that will give you some insight into our severity trends.

除了纽约州外，大多数 PIP 州的严重度大致在 6% 至 7% 之间，波动不大。但因为疫情、车辆行驶里程和事故模式的变化，情况还是不同的。希望这些解释能帮助你理解我们的严重度趋势。

Mike Zaremski

Okay. Yes. That's very helpful. I guess, lastly, I'll move just more broadly to the direct-to-consumer segment of auto. It feels like there's been an acceleration of PIP. And I think the only question we get whether is – whether this is kind of the new normal or if there's kind of been a temporary bump during COVID.

好的，十分有帮助。最后我想更宏观地了解下直销（DTC）汽车险业务。我们观察到 PIF（保单在保数量）增长加快。我们经常被问，这到底是新常态，还是说疫情下的一次性跳升？

I'm trying to – I know it's a high-level question. Just trying to better understand is do you feel that there's something helping you guys that's kind of one-off that could kind of taper off a little bit or is there third-party marketing technologies you guys are using and just will continue to help you? Anything to kind of get us better? I think we understand from your letter Tricia you guys feel great about growth. Just trying to get a sense of whether the double-digit growth in direct-to-consumers is sustainable?

我知道这个问题很宏观，但想弄清楚是否现在的一些利好是一次性的，未来会回落？还是说你们使用的某些第三方营销技术等因素，会持续带来增长？我们从信中理解到你们对增长很乐观，但想知道 DTC 保单双位数增长是否可持续？

Tricia Griffith

Yes. I mean on the auto side in the private passenger auto side when we market, we're marketing for the direct side but we believe that our agents are reciting to that. So when the stay-at-home orders happened, a lot of our agents weren't able to actually work or open their branches, some of them obviously were able to do it from their home but we saw applications go down. And now we're seeing them increase a little bit as things start to open. So that could be volatile for a while depending on what happens with rates of infection.

是的。在私人乘用车业务上，我们做广告主要是针对直销渠道的。但我们也相信，这间接惠及了我们的代理人。在居家令实施时，很多代理无法开门营业，虽然有些可以在家办公，但整体申请量下降。现在随着解封，申请开始回升，短期内可能仍有波动，取决于疫情进展。

What I will say is that the direct-to-consumer side really has increased on the commercial side. So our commercial business has always been the majority from the agents. It's a more complicated product and we are seeing more direct-to-consumer on the commercial side.

我还想说的是，DTC 在商用险业务中增长更为明显。过去我们的商用险大多来自代理渠道，因为产品较复杂。但现在我们看到更多客户通过直销购买商用险。

That trend likely would have been happening over time as people felt comfortable with the products they're buying it really depends on complexity. But I will say that in our for-hire transportation, it's the strongest our direct channel where those new ventures are coming in directly to Progressive.

这一趋势本就可能逐步发生，取决于消费者对产品复杂度的接受程度。在“雇佣运输”业务方面，我们的直销渠道表现尤为强劲，很多新创企业直接选择 Progressive。

So it's hard to say if it will continue. It could be what's happening with pandemic, it could be what's happening with younger truckers for example, starting new ventures and they're more comfortable going direct. But what I would say is we're glad that we've invested in the direct side of the business. We continue to feel like we want to have broad coverage for where when and how customers want to buy and just be available for everyone depending on that need.

所以是否可持续还不好说，可能是疫情的影响，也可能是年轻卡车司机创办新业务，更倾向于直购。我们很高兴之前在直销渠道的投入，现在看收获明显。我们始终希望在客户“何时、何地、如何购买”方面都能提供多样选择，满足不同需求。

Mike Zaremski

Thank you.

谢谢。

John Sauerland

I just might add Mike, you use the new normal in both the severity and the direct questions. And we aren't thinking there's any new normal to point out right now. It's a very dynamic environment obviously, but we think we're playing a well. So in the direct space, as you noted in the Q advertising is up a 29% for the quarter. So when you see us spending more in advertising you should know that we are seeing opportunities to spend efficiently to bring in business.

我想补充一下，Mike，你刚才在严重度和直销问题中都提到了“新常态”这个说法。我们目前并不认为已经出现了某种“新常态”，整个环境仍非常动态，但我们应对得不错。比如在直销方面，如你在季报中看到的，本季度广告支出同比增长了 29%。这说明我们发现了可有效带来新业务的投放机会。

That is what we call the prospects side of the equation and prospects are up as we noted in the Q about 8% for the quarter, but conversion is up as well.

也就是说，我们的潜在客户群增长了——季报中提到本季度同比增长 8%。而更关键的是转化率也在上升。

And that was a quarter where some of our competitors had lower pricing in effect because of their approach to COVID rebates or credits and some of those have come off now. So from a competitiveness standpoint all else equal, we think we're in a pretty good place. Conversion is up 5% for the quarter. We may even be getting more competitive. So again all else equal, our advertising especially being even more effective.

而且本季度，一些竞争对手因疫情发放返利、补贴等原因定价偏低，这些政策如今大多已结束。从竞争力角度看，其他条件相同的情况下，我们的位置不错。转化率本季度提升了 5%，竞争力可能甚至在增强。因此，在其他条件不变下，我们的广告投入正变得更具效率。

Mike Zaremski

Thank you.

谢谢。

Operator

主持人

Our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Go ahead please. Your line is open.

下一位提问者是来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan。请发言，您的线路已打开。

Elyse Greenspan

Hi, thank you. Good morning. My first question was just in the Q, you guys did pointed out that miles driven went up in the first half of the third quarter, but then back down in the second half. So I was just wondering if we could get some color on what you think might have driven that? I'm not sure if it was pickup in COVID cases or partial lockdowns in certain states? Or anything -- any other color that you think would apply to that dynamics within the third quarter?

你好，谢谢。早上好。第一个问题是，季报中提到第三季度上半段车辆行驶里程上升，但在下半段又下降。想请问你们认为是什么驱动了这种变化？是新冠病例回升？某些州出现了局部封锁？还是其他什么你们认为相关的因素导致了这一季度内的这种波动？

Tricia Griffith

Yeah. Good morning, Elyse. We do think that's what happened. We think that is reflected pretty when something changes in a given state. We look at this from state-to-state. There's really a variety of vehicle miles traveled and ranges. It’s still now much obviously higher than the trough of 40% right around 10%-ish 10% to 15% across the country. We're really digging in to kind of understand it. We do see the congestion is still a very different in the morning to me where there's less congestion. We're starting to dig into how we look at the types of job you have, and so we can try to understand people that might work-from-home for a longer period of time versus people that have jobs where you need to be on about.

早上好，Elyse。是的，我们认为确实发生了这种变化，而且这通常在各州发生政策变化时反映得很明显。我们是按州来观察的，各地车辆行驶里程和波动范围差异都很大。虽然当前水平显然比最初疫情爆发时的低谷——下降 40%——高很多，但全美目前大概还比正常水平低 10% 到 15%。我们正深入研究背后的原因。比如我们看到早高峰的拥堵状况仍然很不一样，很多地方早上没那么堵了。我们正在分析职业类型的差异，以了解哪些人可能会长期居家办公，哪些人则必须外出工作。

And in fact we're really looking through our UBI data that are Robinsons or people that are 65 and older their features fell in line with their vehicle miles traveled and we just think they're driving less during rush hour or they're working from how more they have roles that can work from home they might be retired. And the younger demographics what we would call the spends and dines and wrights their features fell more than the VMC, although the gap is narrowing. And they had a small drop in mileage. We believe that these are jobs that can't be done from home.

实际上我们正在利用 UBI（使用行为保险）数据进行分析，比如“Robinsons”（退休族）或 65 岁以上群体的特征与他们的车辆行驶里程是一致的——他们在高峰时段的行驶减少了，很多人要么退休了，要么是可以在家工作的岗位。而年轻群体，也就是我们称为“spends、dines 和 wrights”（活跃消费型人群）——他们的特征下降幅度超过了 VMC（车辆移动度），虽然差距正在缩小。这部分人的行驶里程也略有下降。我们认为他们的职业无法远程办公。

So we're watching that closely. I think a lot depends on what happens in the next several weeks with infection rates and what specific states do. So again what we'll do is we continue through our product group watching those states and those areas very closely to understand those frequency trends and using data both on the Snapshot side and the smart haul side in commercial where we're not seeing that change.

所以我们在密切关注这些趋势。我认为接下来几周的感染率和各州的具体措施将起关键作用。我们产品团队会继续密切关注各州和各地区的趋势，结合我们 Snapshot 和商用险中的 Smart Haul 数据进行分析。值得注意的是，在商用险部分我们没有看到太大的变化。

So the truck drivers are on the road more because of moving goods back and forth. So we see a little bit different on the commercial side. And even though the congestion has decreased, we know that they're on the road more. So hopefully that gives you a little bit of color. It's changing always and we're thankful that we have a lot of data in our usage-based insurance across many of our products and we'll keep watching that and react as necessary.

卡车司机因为货运需求在路上更活跃，因此商用险那边的情况不太一样。即使整体拥堵减少，他们的行驶量反而在上升。希望这些解释对你有帮助。这一切都在持续变化，但我们很庆幸在多个产品上有丰富的使用行为数据，未来也会继续密切跟踪并适时调整策略。

Elyse Greenspan

That's helpful. And then my second question is on Snapshot. So I was hoping that you could give us an update on kind of the take-up rates within both the agency and the direct side where we sit today. And then have you guys noticed a greater take-up rate for your Snapshot devices during this kind of COVID slowdown, I guess is folks are potentially driving less right, with potentially want to use a device that could potentially lead to some savings to them?

很有帮助，谢谢。我的第二个问题是关于 Snapshot 的。能否更新一下目前在代理渠道和直销渠道的客户使用率（take-up rate）？另外在这段疫情放缓期间，你们是否观察到更多客户愿意使用 Snapshot 设备？毕竟大家可能开车少了，更希望借此省点保费。

Tricia Griffith

Yes. So immediately, we've always had a pretty good high take rate on the direct side. So immediately, when we had the shutdown, we saw an uptick in that. And that sort of leveled off. On the agency side where we haven't had historically a great of a take rate, we saw that go up, and it's continues.

是的。我们在直销渠道的使用率一直不错。疫情初期封锁一开始，Snapshot 的使用率立刻上升，之后有所趋稳。在代理渠道，过去使用率不算高，但这段时间上升明显，目前也还在持续上升。

So I think, agents and I've been -- I probably talked in one of the great things about COVID is that, I've been able to get out and talk to literally thousands of agents in the last couple of months, virtually, of course, and they understand that they need to be competitive, and they've been talking and selling Snapshot to their clients, to our mutual clients. And so that has increased and that has continued to kind of maybe level out, but it's increased much more than before COVID.

我认为代理人现在意识到了竞争的重要性。我也借着疫情这段时间，通过线上方式与成千上万的代理人进行了交流，这是疫情期间难得的好处之一。他们明白，要保持竞争力，就必须向客户推荐 Snapshot。因此代理渠道的使用率已显著高于疫情前，虽然近期有所趋稳，但整体趋势仍是增长。

On the commercial side, September was the biggest Smart Haul enrollment ever and the monthly take rate climbed to about 24%. So we're seeing that definitely on the commercial side. John, do you want to add anything?

在商用险方面，9 月份是 Smart Haul 历史上录入量最多的一个月，月度使用率攀升至约 24%。这一趋势在商用险领域尤为明显。John，你有补充吗？

John Sauerland

Yeah. So that's definitely seeing that take rates go higher, especially in the for-hire transportation segment that Tricia was noting earlier. So that is, you can think of sort of delivery trucks, as well as interstate trucking. And we're very excited to see especially the take rate on what we call new ventures. So a lot of truckers are going out on their own these days.

是的，确实如此。特别是在 Tricia 前面提到的“雇佣运输”领域（例如快递车或洲际卡车）使用率增长更快。我们尤其高兴地看到所谓“新创运输企业”——许多卡车司机现在自己创业——在这类客户中 Smart Haul 的使用率更高。

And truck insurance premiums are pretty high. So they're very open to offers that might lower that premium. And it's great that the take rate there is even higher than the overall. And we feel that segment is very well priced, especially when we have the Smart Haul insights that we have really from day one.

而且卡车险的保费很高，这类客户非常乐于接受任何能降低保费的方案。目前在这部分客户中的使用率甚至高于整体平均水平。凭借我们对 Smart Haul 的深度数据洞察，我们对这一市场定价非常有信心。

So the other thing, I would mention on Snapshot more generally is that we are -- well, we haven't marketed a lot, we have something called Snapshot Road Test in market now. And the take rate there is encouraging. And this is via mobile devices whereby you can do what we used to call test drives.

另外补充一下，关于 Snapshot，我们现在还有一个叫 Snapshot Road Test 的新功能，虽然目前还未做大量市场推广，但初期使用率非常不错。这个功能可以通过移动设备实现，相当于我们以前所说的“试驾监控”。

So if you drive for a while, we get your driving behavior, we deploy that at your initial quote. Today in Snapshot, we give you a discount for participating and then give you the fully developed discount at renewal with Road Test. You get that up front. So we're excited by the early take rates there again, we have a marketed it, but we think we're ready to do consumers will be very interested.

你只要试驾一段时间，我们就能获取你的驾驶行为数据，并应用于初次报价。目前的 Snapshot 是参与即享初步折扣，续保时再获得完整折扣。而 Road Test 是在初次报价时就根据你的驾驶行为直接给出完整折扣。我们对早期的使用率表现很满意，虽然尚未推广，但我们认为市场已经准备好了，消费者会很感兴趣。

Elyse Greenspan

That's helpful. And will Road Test, thank you to proceed follow-up, will Road Test be available in all states where you have the traditional Snapshot product?

这非常有帮助。追问一下，Road Test 是否会在你们已有传统 Snapshot 产品的所有州推出？

John Sauerland

Yeah. So it's available today. We just haven't marketed it.

是的，已经可以用了。只是我们还没有正式推广。

Elyse Greenspan

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you for the color.

明白了。很有帮助，谢谢你们的解释。

Operator

主持人

Our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar, with JPMorgan. Go ahead, please. Your line is open.

下一位提问者是来自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。请发言，您的线路已打开。

Jimmy Bhullar

Hi. Good morning. I just had a question on the competitive environment and you just discussed sort of pricing conditions in the personal auto business and your outlook for margin, because it does seem like the more and more companies are trying to be more proactive and trying to either gain share or recover the share that they've lost over the last few years?

你好，早上好。我想请教一下你们对当前竞争环境的看法。你们刚刚也提到个人车险的定价情况以及利润率展望。现在似乎越来越多的公司变得更积极，要么争取增加市场份额，要么试图收复过去几年流失的份额。

Tricia Griffith

Yes. I mean, we feel really great. We've added 2.4 million policies compared to last September. So we feel like we were well positioned coming into the pandemic. And then we reacted very quickly. So we knew that vehicle miles travel has been down. We immediately gave to 20% credits for two months to our auto customers. We feel that that -- it could change, so that helped us with retention, because those customers were able to say, obviously, there were some moratoriums as well and they'll have to play out depending on what happens, if there's stimulus, et cetera.

是的，我们感觉非常好。与去年 9 月相比，我们新增了 240 万份保单。可以说我们在疫情爆发初期就处于有利位置，而且反应也非常迅速。当我们意识到车辆行驶里程下降后，立即为我们的汽车客户提供了为期两个月、20% 的保费返还。这项措施可能随着情况变化而调整，但它确实有助于客户留存——当然当时还有一些暂停取消保单的禁令，这一切最终要看政府是否有新的刺激措施等情况。

And then we started to do what we do best and surgically look at state by state, channel by channel, product by product, because we want to balance that growth and profitability. And we've really enjoyed gaining share across the board and we want to continue that.

随后我们回归本业，逐一分析各州、各渠道、各产品线的数据，因为我们始终在追求增长与盈利的平衡。我们在各方面都取得了市场份额增长，并希望保持这种势头。

So what we're doing now is, what we call, taking small bites of the apple in terms of rate decreases. If we see conversions going down or we're less competitive and we get a lot of intel from other companies and our agents, we will take rates down slightly.

因此我们现在的策略是“小口吃苹果”，也就是微调保费。如果我们观察到转化率下降，或竞争力减弱，并从同行或代理人那里获取相应信息，我们就会略微下调费率。

So we talked about taking it down about 1 percentage for the quarter and 3% April through September. We did that in about 37 states and when I say 37 states, there might have been two rate decreases, maybe 0.5% maybe 1%. We really watch this and we're able to react so quickly, which keeps us really competitive when people are shopping.

我们提到本季度总体降幅约为 1%，而 4 月至 9 月期间累计约为 3%。我们在大约 37 个州进行了降价，有的州我们调价两次，每次大约是 0.5% 或 1%。我们密切监控这些变化，并且反应迅速，这让我们在客户比价时始终保持竞争力。

And then, April through December, we will have taken some form of rate decrease in about 42 states and that is about 84% of our country-wide net written premiums. So, again, surgically being able to react to rate, be competitive. And we do that going both ways, depending on the product.

从 4 月到 12 月，我们将在约 42 个州实施某种形式的降价，这些州占我们全美承保净保费的 84%。所以我们可以说在定价方面反应非常灵活且精细，能及时调整以保持竞争力。我们也会根据产品不同，有时候上调，有时候下调。

But we feel like we're positioned well, like John said, and everybody had whether they took credits or discount, everyone's trying to make sure that we are competitive. This is a very competitive industry and we feel like we're in a really good position, which is why I started the letter off the way I did. I'm very pleased with our results and our reaction to COVID and what we've been able to do for our customers when they need us the most.

但正如 John 所说，我们目前的市场定位非常稳固。无论是返还保费还是打折，各家公司都在确保自身具有竞争力。这是一个高度竞争的行业，而我们目前处于一个很好的位置。这也是我在致股东信开头就强调这一点的原因。我对我们的业绩、对疫情期间的快速应对，以及我们在客户最需要时所做的一切都非常满意。

Jimmy Bhullar

And when you think about this balancing growth and profitability, is there a level on either the loss ratio or the combined ratio to where you're comfortable taking it up and continuing to push for growth? Like, I think, in the past you've talked about mid-90s would be a level where you've sort of slow down your growth and focus more on margins instead?

在你们追求增长和盈利之间的平衡时，是否有一个你们可以接受的损失率或综合赔付率的临界点？比如我记得你们过去提过，当综合赔付率达到 90% 中段时，你们会放缓增长，更注重利润？

Tricia Griffith

Yes. So we've had the same objective in the company since we went public in 1971, that to grow as fast as we can and make at least $0.04 of underwriting profit. And so, we always try to balance that. That said, we have five core values and one of them is profit. So if we don't believe we can be profitable then we'll start growing, profit comes first.

是的。自 1971 年上市以来，我们的目标就没变过：尽可能快地增长，同时实现每1美元至少 4 美分的承保利润。所以我们始终在追求这个平衡。同时，我们有五项核心价值观，其中之一就是“利润”。如果我们认为不能盈利，那就不会盲目追求增长——利润优先。

So, here's the deal. We don't want to give away margin. So if we believe that we can grow and still grow at that 96 or less than a combined ratio, we'll do so. If we don't, we'll keep the margin and understand that again, that is as such, we do it at such a surgical level, that the 96, grow as fast as you can, is our job objective for the overall company but we look at it very different across our portfolio. So, yes, we're going to continue to try to aggressively grow, gain market share all while making sure that we achieve our profitability goal.

所以原则是：我们不会牺牲利润率。如果我们相信在综合赔付率为 96 或更低的水平下仍能增长，那我们就会继续扩张；否则我们就选择守住利润。我们是在非常精细化的层面操作的——以“96 以下的综合赔付率、尽可能快地增长”为整体目标，但在不同的业务线会有不同策略。所以，简言之，我们会继续积极拓展市场份额，同时确保实现利润目标。

Jimmy Bhullar

Thank you.

谢谢。

Tricia Griffith

Thank you.

谢谢。

Operator

主持人

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James. Go ahead please. Your line is open.

下一位提问者是来自雷蒙德詹姆斯的 Greg Peters。请发言，您的线路已打开。

Greg Peters

Good morning. So the first question will be around retention. As you know, there was another insurtech company that went public groups. It's also an Ohio-based company. They disclose their retention rates, Allstate discloses their retention rates. And I'm just curious if you could give us some color about how your retention has been this year, relative to last year?

早上好。我的第一个问题是关于客户保留率。你们也知道，最近有另一家总部在俄亥俄的保险科技公司上市了，他们公布了保留率数据，Allstate 也公开了他们的保留率。我很好奇，能否请你们分享一下你们今年相较于去年的客户保留表现？

Tricia Griffith

Yes, so retention for us is really the Holy Grail, you want -- you spend the money to acquire customers, they come in, you want to make sure we give great service and they reward us with the retention. So, we look at retention for what we call policy life expectancy. On the trailing 12 months, it's up to 9%, up 10% of agency, 7% indirect.

对我们来说，客户留存就是“圣杯”。我们花钱吸引客户，客户来了，我们就要提供优质服务，让他们愿意留下来。因此我们通过“保单预期寿命”（Policy Life Expectancy, PLE）来衡量留存率。从过去 12 个月来看，总体上升了约 9%，其中代理渠道增长 10%，直销渠道增长 7%。

Now, the caveat is we're getting a benefit of the billing leniencies and moratoriums and so we would say -- we would say that those are the numbers, but they may be conservative, depending on what happens with people and jobs and unemployment, etcetera. Our trailing three is a little bit lower and a little bit more volatile. Trailing three is 7% up, up in 6% in agency 8% indirect.

但这里需要指出一点，这个数据在一定程度上受益于账单延期政策和禁停保单的规定。所以虽然数据是这样的，但可能是偏保守估计，最终还要看就业、失业等因素的影响。以过去 3 个月为衡量周期的话，增长会略低且波动性更大，PLE 上升 7%，其中代理渠道为 6%，直销渠道为 8%。

And on the commercial line side, of course, we look at a 12 month basis because those are annual policies; PLE is up about 4%. So, we're very pleased with that, but we also know that there's a lot of volatility going on right now. And we'll do our best to keep our customers and to work with them, our CRM, our customer relationship management group on both the direct side auto and commercial lines auto, work very close to the customers if they need to make changes to their policy in order to keep their coverage available.

至于商用险，我们采用年度周期来计算，因为这些保单通常按年计费。商用险的 PLE 增长了大约 4%。我们对这一表现非常满意，但也清楚当前环境波动性很大。我们会尽力留住客户，与他们紧密沟通。无论是个人车险还是商用车险，我们的客户关系管理团队都会协助客户在必要时调整保单，从而确保保障不间断。

So, I would say the PLE numbers that we state that we stayed in the queue are very positive. But we also know a part of that is because of the lenient scene moratorium on based on COVID.

所以总体而言，我们报告的 PLE 数据是非常正面的，但我们也清楚其中一部分得益于新冠疫情下的一些宽限措施。

Greg Peters

Got it. The second question is around the expense ratio, a number of your competitors are laser-focused on reducing their expense ratios to bring them down closer to your level. And I'm curious about the initiatives that you have ongoing within your company to keep your expense ratios low and possibly to get them lower.

明白了。第二个问题是关于费用率。你们的很多竞争对手现在都在积极压缩费用率，想要向你们看齐。我想知道你们目前公司内部有哪些持续进行的措施，既能保持费用率低，也可能进一步降低？

Tricia Griffith

Yeah, we talk about expense ratios all the time. And we're pretty proud of our results. It's a balance, of course, making sure that we're investing in things like digital that our customers need. I think the one of the silver linings of the pandemic is that we learned that we can write really good estimates from photos and videos and we were working on that prior to the pandemic. But obviously, it was exacerbated based on the fact that we all you know kind of went into our homes to do the work.

是的，我们一直非常重视费用率，也对目前的成绩感到自豪。关键在于要平衡好——我们需要在客户需要的领域（比如数字化）持续投资。我觉得疫情期间的一大“意外收获”是我们意识到可以通过照片和视频来完成理赔估损，而且我们在疫情前就开始做这方面的探索。疫情加速了这方面的发展，因为我们都“在家办公”了。

So, we continue to experiment and see what type of vehicles that we can look at and not be side of car and understand, is that is a quality estimate. Because you don't want to have such a as an example such a low loss expense ratio or loss expense adjustment ratio, if your accuracy is not good, because that indemnity is the biggest part of what we pay out.

所以我们还在继续尝试，研究哪些车型可以不亲临现场也能估损准确。因为如果你的估损不准确，再低的理赔费用率（LAE）也无济于事——最终赔偿金额才是最大支出。

And we continue to work in our CRM organization, understand how customers can get things they need without human intervention. John Sauerland’s Group is working on, some RPA process. And so there's, we have a lot of things going around the company, we're actually we had, we had completed a five year plan for a Board of Directors last year. And obviously we're redoing it this year, because a lot of the changes and that's actually been a topic of what we're what we try to achieve.

我们在客户关系管理（CRM）团队持续推动自动化，比如让客户在不需要人工协助的情况下就能完成操作。John Sauerland 的团队也在推进一些 RPA（机器人流程自动化）流程。公司内部现在有很多项目在进行中。我们去年给董事会提交过一个五年计划，今年也在根据环境变化重新调整——降本增效是重点议题之一。

We have internal goals that we work on together. And we balance that with investments of like John said, advertising, digital, but we constantly try to look good. How can we absolutely do more with less than not affect our customers? And we know that this is a competitive industry, and that competitive prices are really important. So that expense ratio is a big part of it whether it's on the overall side or decline side. John you're the first string holder you want to add any color?

我们设有内部目标，并与广告投放、数字化投资等内容做好平衡。我们的理念始终是“少花钱多办事”，前提是不影响客户体验。我们很清楚这是个竞争非常激烈的行业，而价格竞争力尤为关键，费用率在整体和渠道层面上都是重要组成。John 你是“控盘大将”，要不要补充一下？

John Sauerland

Yes. Certain many competitors are aspiring to our level of cost structure but there are some competitors who have better cost structures than progressive. So we've been focused on continuing to get more competitive in terms of cost structure for years. As Tricia noted, we think of it in two buckets. So we think of what we call non-acquisition expense ratio and acquisition expense ratio.

当然。很多竞争对手希望能达到我们这样的成本结构，但也确实有个别竞争者的成本控制比我们还强。因此多年来我们也始终致力于进一步提升自身成本结构的竞争力。正如 Tricia 所说，我们将费用率分为两个部分：获客费用率（acquisition）和非获客费用率（non-acquisition）。

In the acquisition, we put advertising, as well as agents commission, so I just mentioned earlier, advertising for the quarter was up 25%. It was up 20% year-to-date. We think that's good growth in expenses because we're acquiring customers we're going to have for a long time.

获客部分主要包括广告投放和代理佣金。比如本季度广告支出同比增长了 25%，年初至今增长了 20%。我们认为这种增长是“良性支出”，因为这些费用是在换来长期客户。

Similarly on the agent side, we have to pay competitive commission in order to continue to grow there. So we think growth in expenses in that portion of the expense ratio is good. We focus on the non-acquisition expense ratio, where we are trying to drive what we think of as our infrastructure costs lower.

同样地，在代理渠道我们也需要支付具有竞争力的佣金，以支持业务增长。所以获客费用部分的支出增长是合理的。我们更关注的是非获客部分的费用率，目标是持续压低基础设施类开支。

And if you go back around five years, as Tricia noted, I think we've taken out maybe close to three or four points on our non-acquisition expense ratio and we – our site set on reducing that further is as Tricia noted, price competitiveness is not the only thing that matters in the marketplace but it is a very big part of the consideration set for auto and home insurance as well as commercialize especially.

回顾过去五年，我们在非获客费用率上已经压缩了约 3 到 4 个百分点。接下来我们也将继续努力降低。正如 Tricia 所说，价格竞争力不是市场竞争的唯一因素，但在车险、房险，尤其是商用险领域，它始终是客户考虑的核心因素之一。

Greg Peters

Thank you for the answer.

感谢你们的回答。

Operator

主持人

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips from Morgan Stanley. Go ahead please. Your line is open.

下一位提问者是来自摩根士丹利的 Michael Phillips。请发言，您的线路已打开。

Michael Phillips

Hey, good morning. So we've all heard Elon at Tesla talk about being aggressive with hiring actuaries and starting on insurance company to use his proprietary real-time data and – well maybe that's only for his captive fleet. I guess just your thoughts on how you view the competition from connected car companies like that that do have really access to rich data from their own fleet to offer insurance to complete fleets?

早上好。我们都听说过特斯拉的 Elon Musk 积极招聘精算师并创办保险公司，利用他们自己的实时车辆数据——也许目前主要用于特斯拉自有车队。请问你们怎么看待来自这种“车联网”公司的竞争？这些公司能利用车队数据提供保险服务，尤其是面向完整车队的产品。

Tricia Griffith

Yes. I mean I think that we – from a talent perspective, we feel really positive where we're at. We have been investing in understanding how to have functionality to gather data from third parties, whether it be OEMs—we call it Express Data Quote. That’s something we’re working on now.

是的。从人才储备的角度来说，我们对目前的情况很有信心。我们一直在投资开发功能，能够从第三方（例如原厂车企）采集数据，我们称之为“快速数据报价”（Express Data Quote），目前正持续推进这项工作。

I mean I think the question is—or the answer is that yes, the talent is important. We believe that at some point we'll have to answer who owns the data, but we've been working on this with a lot of partners over time to understand how to get quotes our way and understand that data to better understand trends. Does that answer your question?

我认为，关键的问题是——是的，人才很重要。未来我们终究要面对“数据归属权”的问题。但我们早已与多个合作方展开合作，研究如何使用这些数据为我们提供更好的报价能力，以及洞察趋势。这样回答是否满足你的问题？

Michael Phillips

So I guess, I was looking more towards your view of just the competitive landscape from companies like that that have access to their own data from fleet and are trying to offer insurance and even aggressively offer their insurance. I know how he speaks but that was really what I was trying to get at.

我更想问的是你们如何看待那些掌握自己车队数据、并积极提供保险服务的公司所构成的竞争环境。比如特斯拉那样的公司，我知道他说话风格比较张扬，但我关注的是这类竞争态势。

Tricia Griffith

Got it. Yes, I wasn't sure if I answered that. Yes, it's great competition. They’ve had shot-in data for a long, long time. And so we feel very comfortable.

明白了。我之前可能没有完全回答清楚。是的，这是一种强有力的竞争。他们很早就有丰富的数据输入（shot-in data），但我们对此非常有信心。

The fact that I can tell you today—for example, as Elisa earlier answered—our Robinson cohort’s feature aligns with their vehicle miles traveled, etc. We’re able to watch that in real time.

比如我们现在就能实时监控我们的 “Robinson 群体”（65 岁以上驾驶者）数据，其行为特征和实际行驶里程高度一致，这说明我们的监控能力是实时且精准的。

And I’m especially excited about what we’re doing now on the commercial side. I talked earlier about for-hire transportation—we’re now offering meaningful discounts to those drivers and companies, and our ability to identify the best-performing drivers is really important. That helps with retention and loss cost.

我特别兴奋的是我们在商用险方面的新进展。我之前提到“雇佣运输”业务——我们正在为这些司机和公司提供有意义的保费折扣，我们识别优秀驾驶者的能力也变得非常关键，这不仅有助于客户留存，也有助于控制赔付成本。

So the competition is great, because it allows us to never stop evolving. So years ago we only had the dongle and you had to plug it in and then you could do a wireless. Now we have the mobile device. John talked about our road test. We have Snapshot Proview. So it forces us in a really good way to continue to invest data and collecting data on our 24 plus million policyholders. So we feel like we're in a really great position and competition only makes us better.

所以这种竞争是好事，它推动我们持续进化。以前我们还在用那种插车上的小盒子（dongle），后来是无线，现在是手机端的 Snapshot Road Test，还有 Snapshot ProView。这些都迫使我们不断在数据采集和分析上持续投入。我们目前服务的保单数量超过 2400 万份，有丰富的数据基础。我们认为我们的市场地位非常强，这种竞争只会让我们变得更好。

Michael Phillips

Okay, thanks. I guess part two then is, you alluded to it here and we talked a lot about UBI and Telematics now. I guess, what's the lifeline of credit score specifically as a rating variable on personal auto? Are we looking at a couple of years? Do you think that thing dries up or decades? Or how long does that think have left in runway as a pricing variable?

好的，谢谢。第二个问题，既然我们前面谈了那么多关于 UBI（使用行为保险）和车联网的内容，我想问的是——信用评分在个人车险定价中的“生命周期”还有多长？它是否会在几年内被淘汰，还是能再持续十几年？你们怎么看信用分作为定价因子的“剩余价值”？

Tricia Griffith

You know what? I’m glad you brought that up. We've been thinking a lot about that. And I know there will be challenges—especially on the regulatory front—because of the pandemic.

你提这个问题太好了。我们最近一直在深思这个问题。疫情之后的监管环境确实会带来一些挑战。

Michael, this may be a longer answer than you were expecting, but I think it’s important. First, about risk-based pricing, and second, about what’s happening more broadly.

Michael，我的回答可能会比你预期的长一点，但我觉得这个话题很重要。我会先谈谈风险定价，然后谈谈更大的背景。

We’ve had many questions about whether credit scoring affects race. The truth is, race is never used in pricing insurance. In fact, it’s illegal. If two people have the same risk profile—same credit, same driving—but are different races, they get the same rate. We’re risk-based, not race-based.

很多人问我们信用评分是否会影响种族公平。事实上，保险定价从不使用种族因素——这是违法的。如果两位客户的信用和驾驶记录一样，但种族不同，他们拿到的价格是一样的。我们坚持“基于风险而不是基于种族”。

We strongly support legislation and regulation that lets insurers use all relevant data and technology to price based on actual cost of insurance risk. This promotes pricing accuracy, which helps individuals and businesses access affordable coverage and economic opportunities.

我们坚定支持立法和监管，允许保险公司使用所有相关数据和技术，以实际风险成本为基础进行定价。准确定价有助于客户，尤其是中小企业，获取负担得起的保障和发展机会。

We’ve long talked about the “virtuous cycle”: better pricing accuracy → more accessibility and affordability → more growth → more jobs → more segmentation and innovation → back to better pricing. This cycle works for consumers, shareholders, and society.

我们长期倡导“良性循环”：更精准的定价 → 更广泛可及、价格更合理 → 更快增长 → 更多就业 → 更多创新与精细化 → 又回到定价优化。这一循环对消费者、股东和社会都是利好的。

We do recognize that for some individuals, mandatory insurance is a significant financial burden. So we’re open to working with regulators and industry leaders to explore targeted solutions—rather than sweeping changes that may disrupt markets and harm access.

我们也承认，对一些人来说，强制保险是一项不小的负担。所以我们愿意与监管机构和行业同仁合作，寻找针对性的解决方案，而不是仓促采取可能扰乱市场、影响可得性的“激烈改革”。

Credit score is one of many variables in pricing—an effective one. It’s not race-based. We stand firmly by it. We also believe the right use of data and technology will expand access to insurance, not restrict it.

信用评分是众多定价因子之一，而且是一个有效的变量。它与种族无关，我们会坚定支持它。我们也相信，数据与科技的合理应用将扩大保险可得性，而不是限制它。

Progressive started in 1937 as a nonstandard insurer—helping people in Cleveland who couldn’t get coverage. We’ve always stood for access and affordability. And we will continue to play a role in using innovation, segmentation, and data to broaden access for all.

Progressive 创立于 1937 年，当时就是为了帮助那些在克利夫兰买不到保险的人。我们一直支持可负担性与普惠性。未来我们仍将通过创新、细分和数据力量让更多人获得保障。

So don’t confuse today’s pandemic-induced affordability challenges with the long-standing, sound model of risk-based pricing. The social inequities that we’re grappling with go far beyond insurance—they require broader systemic solutions.

所以，我们不能因为疫情导致的暂时困难就否定基于风险的长期稳定定价体系。社会不公问题远大于保险范畴，需要系统性、长期性的社会改革去解决。

In the short term, I believe we need new stimulus targeting the most vulnerable. We should also raise the minimum wage—Progressive already pays all employees over $15 an hour—and invest in education and broadband access, so all Americans can participate in the digital economy.

短期内，我认为我们需要一项新的、更精准的经济刺激方案，聚焦于最需要帮助的人群。我们还应提高最低工资（Progressive 所有员工已达每小时 $15 以上），并投资于教育和网络基础设施，让每一位美国人都能参与数字经济。

To wrap up: credit remains a powerful and fair variable. It helps us ensure pricing accuracy and broad market participation. And we’ll continue to champion rational, risk-based approaches that empower consumers and promote equity.

总结来说：信用评分依然是一个强大而公平的定价因素，它帮助我们实现精准定价和广泛市场覆盖。我们会继续倡导合理、基于风险的保险体系，让消费者受益，也推动公平。

Michael Phillips

Okay. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

好的，非常感谢你的详尽回答。

Operator

主持人

Our next question comes from the line of Gary Ransom with Dowling & Partners. Go ahead please. Your line is open.

下一位提问者是来自 Dowling & Partners 的 Gary Ransom。请发言，您的线路已打开。

Gary Ransom

Yes, good morning. Tricia, you mentioned in your letter the creative ways of treating customers and we also saw how ad spend is up and direct quotes were up. And I just wondered, in looking at the success of all that's going in and getting customers into the funnel and successfully getting a new customer, what are the actual key elements of success in attracting those customers either today in this COVID environment or what you're seeing over the longer term?

早上好，Tricia。你在致股东信中提到了对客户采取的一些创新做法，我们也注意到你们的广告支出和直销报价都在增长。我想问的是，综合你们目前的成果，不论是在疫情当下，还是从长期来看，你们成功吸引新客户的关键因素具体有哪些？

Tricia Griffith

Well I think ultimate success, Gary, is to be able to acquire customers at or below our targeted acquisition cost. But more importantly, as we look at and expand our product line, we're able to do so with our creatives. So for years we had Flo inside the superstore — the whole message is savings, savings, savings. And now we have, obviously, an entire network of characters that talk not just about savings, but also about protecting your home. And we’re seeing that work.

Gary，我认为真正的成功，是能够以目标获客成本或更低的成本获取客户。但更重要的是，当我们拓展产品线时，我们的创意内容也在同步进化。多年来，我们在广告中用 Flo 这个角色在超市中传递“省钱、省钱、省钱”的信息。而现在，我们构建了一个完整的角色网络，不只是谈省钱，还谈到房屋保障等内容。我们发现这很有效。

An example is—I'm not sure if you’ve seen it—we’ve had a campaign for a few years now centered around “Dr. Rick” and “parentamorphosis” — that is, when you become your parents after buying your first home. A lot of people relate to that. The results from that campaign have been really strong.

比如说——不知你是否看过——我们已经推出“Dr. Rick”和“变成你父母”（parentamorphosis）这个系列广告好几年了，讲的是人们在买第一套房后变得越来越像父母。很多人对此感同身受，这个系列的效果非常好。

We’ve also had good campaigns with the Cleveland Browns quarterback and other characters like the “10-yard chain guys” that we aired during live sports — which is what everyone’s watching now until we fully return to regular TV.

我们还推出了与克利夫兰布朗队四分卫合作的广告，和“10码链条员”这样的角色，在体育赛事直播中投放——毕竟目前人们还主要看体育直播，尚未全面回归常规电视。

So we look at what we call “new prospects” — people who haven’t shopped us in the past six months. We track whether they convert, and at what cost. That helps us understand which creative campaigns are working. When something works, we double down. When it doesn’t, we pivot and try something new.

我们重点关注所谓的“新潜客”，也就是过去六个月没有向我们询价的人群。我们会追踪他们是否转化，以及转化的成本，从而评估广告创意是否奏效。有效的内容我们会加码投放，无效的我们就换创意。

During COVID, I’m really proud of our marketing team. Even when everything shut down, they stayed nimble. Initially, we aired softer, empathetic messages because people were anxious. Then we gradually moved forward.

在疫情期间，我对我们的营销团队感到非常自豪。即使当时一切都暂停了，他们依然保持灵活。最初我们推出了一些更温和、更具同理心的广告，因为那时人们普遍焦虑；之后我们逐步恢复常规节奏。

We even had Flo and her crew appear in Zoom calls. We got creative so we wouldn’t miss a beat. This is a competitive space, and we want to stay top of mind when customers go shopping for insurance.

我们甚至设计了让 Flo 和她的“团队”出现在 Zoom 视频会议中的创意广告。我们尽可能地保持创意，不掉队。在这个竞争激烈的市场中，我们必须让 Progressive 始终留在消费者心中。

Gary Ransom

Maybe extending that into the agency channels also, where I think your conversion rates were up as well. Usually that just means your price is lowest on the comparative raters there. But is there more to it than that as well? Are you seeing more coming into the agents? Are there agents’ incentives or other things going on there?

延伸到代理渠道，我注意到你们的转化率也在上升。通常这意味着你们在比价平台上价格最低。但是否还有其他因素？你们是否看到更多客户通过代理加入？是否有提供代理激励或其他机制？

Tricia Griffith

Yes. We occasionally do agent incentives — for example, if we want to drive more use of UBI (usage-based insurance). Over the years, we’ve also changed our agency commission structure. If you’re selling preferred customers — like Robinsons, auto-home bundles — those agents are designated “Platinum” and receive higher commissions.

是的。我们会不定期对代理人推出激励措施，比如希望他们推动更多客户使用 UBI（使用行为保险）。多年来我们也调整了代理佣金结构。如果代理人能销售优质客户，比如 Robinsons 群体、车房打包产品等，他们会被列为“白金代理”，佣金更高。

They also get perks like being able to sell 12-month auto policies. We’ve built incentives into the Platinum program based on things like loss ratio and more. These weren’t things we always did in the past. Our relationship with agents has really evolved positively.

他们还能获得特权，比如销售 12 个月期的车险保单。我们在白金代理体系中设置了更多激励，比如基于出险率等指标。这些在过去并不常见。我们与代理人的关系近几年发展得非常好。

Like I said at the beginning, I've been able to talk to a lot of agency agents. Just not long ago I had our top 25 platinum agents. Usually we do something with them. We obviously couldn't this year. So while we'll keep our overall commission level about the same rate, we have bifurcated and we'll give you a different commission based on the incoming type of customer, which we believe is the long-term value of that customer.

就像我之前说的，我今年亲自与很多代理人进行过线上会谈，包括我们排名前 25 的白金代理。往年我们通常会线下聚会，今年只能线上见。我们会保持整体佣金水平相对稳定，但会根据客户类型调整佣金结构，因为不同类型的客户具有不同的长期价值。

So, obviously, cost matters a lot, brand matters a lot, commission matters a lot. And probably the last thing I would say and coming from the claims organization, agents are always so happy to not have to deal with any complaints, because our claims organization is so stellar. So there's a lot that goes into it. Clearly, cost is one of them. They benefit from our brand. But, yes, we have -- we do incentives and we have different commissions based on the type of customer that we get in namely preferred.

所以没错——价格重要、品牌重要、佣金也重要。最后补充一点：我来自理赔部门，我很清楚代理人很在意客户投诉的问题。而我们的理赔团队表现非常优秀，这也让代理人更愿意与我们合作。

John Sauerland

I’ll just elaborate on Tricia’s last point, Gary. Ease of use is almost as important as price competitiveness. So beyond not dealing with back-end claims hassles, we’ve invested heavily in technology to make quoting and policy bundling easier for agents. That’s helping us win more business.

Gary，我补充一下 Tricia 最后提到的重点：易用性几乎和价格竞争力一样重要。除了理赔环节的省心，我们也在技术上大幅投资，简化代理人报价和捆绑销售流程。这也极大推动了我们在代理渠道的增长。

Tricia Griffith

Yes, in fact, we just completed the full rollout of portfolio quoting last month. The feedback from agents has been fantastic. Bottom line: make it easy. Thanks, Gary.

是的，我们上个月刚刚完成了“组合报价系统”（portfolio quoting）的全面上线。代理人的反馈非常积极。归根结底就是：让一切变得简单。谢谢你，Gary。

Gary Ransom

Thank you.

谢谢你们。

Operator

Our next question comes from Yaron Kinar with Goldman Sachs. Go ahead please, your line is open.

接下来提问的是高盛的Yaron Kinar先生。请讲，您的线路已经打开。

Yaron Kinar

Hi, good morning. I actually want to continue on this last line of questions. With regards to the kind of creative ways to reach out of consumers beyond the ease of use and quotes and the innovative ad spend in the traditional channels are there any new ways to get to market? Any ways that you're exploring maybe Internet social media and then relate to get our customers?

早上好。我想延续刚才的问题。除了提高用户使用便捷性、报价体验，以及在传统渠道上的创新广告投入之外，请问是否还有其他更有创意的方式来触达消费者？你们是否在探索通过互联网或社交媒体等新途径来获得客户？

Tricia Griffith

Yes. When I usually speak about marketing I go to sort of the mass media and that's one portion of how we market media. We're on streaming. So, we advertise on Hulu. We advertise on most of the social network, channels, and affiliates on Internet. So we -- and we have generic search.

是的。我通常在谈到营销时会提到大众媒体，那是我们市场宣传的一部分。我们现在也在流媒体平台上做广告，比如Hulu。我们也在大多数社交网络、频道和网络联盟上投放广告，同时也做通用搜索广告。

So there -- we have a variety of ways to make sure we get our message to you and do everything we can to get our message to you the right number of times not too much not too little because we don't want to bog you down. So, yes, there's -- besides the creative also many different ways. And there's sometimes on a digital platform that will have characters that we don't even have on mass media. And it's usually the specific demographic that we're looking for in that channel.

所以我们有多种方式确保将我们的信息传递给你，而且是适当的频率，不多也不少，因为我们不想让你感到厌烦。因此除了创意内容以外，我们还有许多不同的传播渠道。有时在某些数字平台上会出现一些角色，是在大众媒体上看不到的，那通常是为了吸引我们在该平台上所瞄准的特定受众群体。

So, yes, we a variety of ways. And as things change with how people watch TV or watch streaming, we'll continue to play a part of that. And the great part is we have access to so much data to understand pretty quickly if it's working so we can remove it or double down.

总之，我们拥有多种方式。随着人们观看电视或流媒体内容方式的改变，我们也会持续参与其中。而且最棒的是，我们拥有大量数据，可以非常迅速地了解某个投放是否有效，从而决定撤掉还是加码。

Yaron Kinar

And are there any metrics you can share on that in terms of are you increasing your spend in those kind of non-mass media channels? Is the take-up greater or improving there?

你们是否可以分享一些这方面的指标？比如你们是否在非大众媒体渠道上增加了投入？这些渠道的转化效果是否有所提升？

Tricia Griffith

I think John wanted to say something to be yes. We're increasing the spend in those channels for sure because many people have cut the cord and don't watch any TV so we need to have access to them through those different channels. John do you want to add to on?

我想John有话要说。是的，我们确实在这些渠道上增加了支出，因为很多人已经“断开有线电视”，他们根本不看电视了，因此我们必须通过其他渠道触达他们。John，你想补充一下吗？

John Sauerland

Yes, the growth in spend in nontraditional media has outpaced traditional for years now and we're constantly testing into new media where we can. We have a group that entirely focuses on new ways to reach people. And the overarching philosophy is where when and how consumers want to buy. So, we are definitely investing.

是的，近年来我们在非传统媒体上的支出增长一直超过传统媒体，我们也不断在测试新的传播方式。我们有一个专门的团队致力于探索触达消费者的新途径。我们的核心理念是：在消费者想要的时间、地点和方式完成购买。因此我们在这方面确实在持续投入。

And normally I think relatively speaking on the forefront of trying new channels and ensuring that we can actually measure the success of those new channels. So, we are very disciplined that we're out spending new money that we find ways to measure its effectiveness and I think that differentiates us relative to a lot of other marketers.

通常来说，我们在尝试新渠道方面处于行业前沿，同时确保我们能衡量这些渠道的成效。我们在花每一笔新钱的时候都非常有纪律性，确保我们能评估其效果，这一点也让我们在众多营销人员中脱颖而出。

Yaron Kinar

Okay. And then my second question it goes to one of the arguments that we hear from insurtech, which is that traditional insurers even innovative and successful ones like Progressive ultimately face an innovator's dilemma in the form of how much you push telematics based scoring and pricing because of the legacy blocks.

好的，我的第二个问题是关于我们从一些保险科技公司那里听到的一种观点：即便像Progressive这样具有创新性和成功经验的传统保险公司，最终仍会面临“创新者困境”，尤其是在推动基于车载远程信息技术的定价和评分时，会受到传统业务系统的制约。

And that these insurtech as a result could have an advantage over the incumbents over time because they're not encumbered by legacy blocks. So I'd love to maybe hear a little more about how Progressive looks at the innovators dilemma and how it handles the right balance between pushing these creative and innovative ways to price in and score versus maintaining the legacy block?

因此保险科技公司因为没有历史包袱，长期来看可能会比传统公司更具优势。我想听听你们如何看待“创新者困境”，以及如何在推进这些创新定价技术与维持传统业务之间取得平衡？

Tricia Griffith

And I talked a little bit about that, when I talked about the virtuous cycle in terms of when you have a segment, you innovate, et cetera and you do that. I think that insurtech are serving a great purpose in terms of ease of use and it would be I think, easy to be able to or nice to be able to I should say start without having legacy systems. That's said we have them, we work around them but we don't say okay, we're just going to be here in time and try to work around. We're constantly innovating from a technology perspective, ease of use perspective.

我在之前提到“良性循环”时谈到过这个问题：当我们面对一个细分市场时，我们会进行创新等等。我认为保险科技公司确实在提升用户体验方面发挥了重要作用，毫无包袱地起步当然是很吸引人的。但我们虽然有传统系统，但不会因此停滞不前或被束缚。我们一直在从技术层面和用户便捷性方面不断创新。

And we believe that part of our DNA is really innovation. We've been first in a lot. I won't go into naming that and we don't intend to change that. And the great benefit that we have that the insurtechs don't is the cost of acquisition. And for us we're going to continue to hone on in – hone in on that. And that's why we were able to increase our policies $2.5 million in one year. That's the reason we're able to do so and make our target profit margins, which are also very important.

我们坚信创新是我们基因的一部分。我们在很多领域都是第一家做出创新的公司（我就不一一列举了），我们也不会停止创新。而我们相比保险科技公司所拥有的巨大优势就是客户获取成本。我们会继续专注优化这一点。正是因为如此，我们才能在一年内新增250万份保单，同时还能达到我们的目标利润率，这也是非常关键的。

We have shareholders that are – that own us because they know we're committed to our 96th growth fast you can. We don't have the – the availability to say we're going to test things, regardless if we make money or not. So we're very innovative. We're always going to do everything we can to make a profit one of our core values and we're able to leverage our size to have lower acquisition costs.

我们的股东投资我们，是因为他们知道我们致力于“96组合”——即快速增长并保持盈利。我们没有办法像某些初创公司那样去测试一些不确定是否盈利的想法。所以我们会持续创新，但始终坚持一个核心价值——盈利。同时借助我们的规模优势，获取客户的成本也更低。

Yaron Kinar

Got it. Thanks, and congrats on a good quarter.

明白了，谢谢你们，也祝贺你们本季度的出色表现。

Tricia Griffith

Thank you.

谢谢你。

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Go ahead please. Your line is open.

接下来提问的是Evercore ISI的David Motemaden先生。请讲，您的线路已打开。

David Motemaden

Hi, good morning. Just sort of following on along the lines of this – the unique ways of – or new ways to acquire customers. I was hoping maybe you could expand a bit on any distribution partnerships for the personal auto business that you may have with the OEMs or online car sites like vroom.com that you have or that you might be exploring. I know that Ford has just entered an agreement with Veris Data Exchange to help offer insurance. I'm wondering do you have any of these relationships? Is this something that you're exploring as a new way to acquire customers? And just sort of how you view that I guess subchannel of the DTC market?

早上好。延续刚才关于获取客户的新方式的问题，我想请您进一步谈谈贵公司是否在个人车险业务方面与汽车原厂（OEM）或像vroom.com这样的线上购车平台有分销合作，或者是否正在探索这类合作渠道。我注意到福特最近和Veris Data Exchange达成了一项保险合作协议。不知道你们是否也有类似的合作关系？你们是否把这作为直销市场中的一个子渠道来看待？

Tricia Griffith

Thanks, David. Yes we've worked with many different OEs over the years and I talked a little bit about that Express a quote that will give us the functionality to work with OEs and other aggregators. We do – we have many relationships and we have some in the works that I'm not liberty to talk about right now. John?

谢谢你，David。是的，我们这些年来与许多OEM（原始设备制造商）合作过，我之前也简单提到过“Express Quote”系统，它赋予我们与OEM及其他聚合平台合作的能力。我们确实建立了许多合作关系，目前也有一些正在洽谈的合作，但现在不方便透露。John，你来补充一下？

John Sauerland

Yes. So we've worked directly with OEs over the years. We started a relationship with GM. I can't remember how many years ago now, probably four years ago.

是的，这些年来我们一直与OEM进行直接合作。我们大约在四年前就开始与通用汽车建立合作关系了。

As you know to get the data directly from vehicles and offer rates that are reflective of driving behavior at the point of quote and the point of sale. We have also worked with aggregators of that data or third-party gatherers of that data. So there are apps on your phone that are tracking where you're going and how you're driving and we've worked with those entities as well.

我们从车辆直接获取数据，在报价和成交时提供与驾驶行为挂钩的费率。同时我们也与数据聚合方或第三方数据收集者合作——比如手机App，它们会追踪用户的行驶路线和驾驶行为，我们也与这些机构有合作。

It is a funnel as we think of it. When we talk about funnel economics, the number of people that come in the top there versus the number that come out of the bottom meaning actually buy a policy has been challenging. That is not to say we won't continue and are continuing to test in that space. And in new media, we normally see funnel challenges at the outset and we work through the experience to continue to refine it, and continue to make it better and to get to the point where the funnel economics work for us.

我们把这一切看作一个“转化漏斗”。在我们谈论“漏斗经济学”时，指的是进入漏斗顶端的人数与最终实际购买保单的人数之间的关系，这方面一直存在挑战。但这并不意味着我们会停止尝试，实际上我们还在不断测试。在接触新媒体时，我们一开始通常都会经历一些“转化率挑战”，但我们会根据用户体验不断调整和优化，直到实现对我们而言可行的转化漏斗结构。

So we've been testing into the data direct from OEs in numerous manners for a number of years now and have shown some success but not to the point that it will be a considerable portion of our media spend anytime soon frankly.

我们已经通过各种方式测试了与OEM直接对接的数据合作，有了一些成功的案例，但坦率地说，目前这些还不足以成为我们主要媒体支出的一部分。

David Motemaden

Got it. And so it sounds like those are interesting, but the conversion rates are still below your other direct channels. Is that correct characterization?

明白了。所以听起来这确实很有前景，但目前转化率还低于你们其他的直销渠道，是这样理解吗？

John Sauerland

That's a fair way to think about it. And think of conversion not only as you got to quote and you then bought the policy, but getting folks from interested in the whole process even to get to the core process. So it's a longer funnel than just got the quote, bought the policy. Then when we talk about in conversion percentage that's what we're talking about there. This is we think of the entire funnel efficiency.

你的理解是正确的。但我们说的“转化率”不仅是指用户拿到报价后是否购买保单，还包括从他们开始感兴趣、进入整个流程，到最终下单的全过程。所以这个“转化漏斗”比“报价—购买”的流程更长。当我们提到转化率时，说的是整个漏斗的效率。

David Motemaden

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. That makes sense. And then just switching gears just more broadly it's obviously been a profitable year for you guys, notwithstanding, the credit and other actions that you've taken. Just wondering, how we should think about the variable dividend? And I guess how you guys are thinking about that as we approach the end of the year?

明白了，这很有帮助。换个话题，总体而言，今年对你们来说显然是非常盈利的一年，尽管采取了一些信贷方面的措施。那么我们该如何看待可变股息（variable dividend）？随着年底临近，你们在这方面是如何考虑的？

Tricia Griffith

Yeah. So we meet with the investment committee John and I and Jon Bauer, our Head of Progressive Capital Management throughout the year understanding our capital strength, which is very strong and always thinking about some dry powder for anything that might come up. We've had a couple of sessions that we have a range that we're thinking about. Obviously the Board will be the one that decides that. We meet with them at the beginning of December and we'll talk through something and get more in line with what we believe the dividend will be payable next year. So obviously that's an unknown because it will be a Board's decision. We feel really great about our capital position. We feel great about our growth and our profit.

是的。John、我和我们投资部门负责人Jon Bauer全年都会与投资委员会会面，评估我们的资本实力——目前是非常强劲的，并始终预留一些“干火药”（应急资金）以备不时之需。我们已经开了几次会，讨论了一些可能的股息范围。当然，最终决定权在董事会手里。我们将在12月初与董事会会面，届时会进一步沟通，并明确我们预计来年将支付的股息水平。现在还不能确定，因为这是董事会的决定。总体来说，我们对自身的资本状况、增长和利润都感到非常满意。

And we -- in the past, we've been able to share that with our shareholders. Again, we don't have any specific amount I can share with you, but we feel really great about our year. Anything can happen. There's still a few months left but we feel good.

过去我们也曾与股东分享可观的收益。目前我还不能给你具体数字，但我们对今年的表现确实感到非常满意。尽管未来几个月可能仍有变数，但总体感觉非常好。

John Sauerland

We have approximately five minutes left in the call and still have a handful of people in the queue. We will go through the last handful here and go a little bit long. However, we will limit everybody to a single question. if you have additional question, you may contact the Investor Relations group at the contact information on the website.

我们这场电话会议还剩大约五分钟，还有一些人排队提问。我们会尽量把这些问题处理完，通话可能会稍微延长。不过，请每位提问者只问一个问题。如果你还有其他问题，可以通过公司网站上的联系方式与投资者关系团队联系。

With that, I'll hand it back over to James.

接下来交回给James。

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Go ahead, please. Your line is open.

接下来是KBW的Meyer Shields先生，请提问，您的线路已接通。

Meyer Shields

Great. And thanks so much for accommodating us. I was hoping that either Tricia or John, could talk us through sort of the monthly volatility in the commercial lines expense ratio and what's been going on there?

太好了，非常感谢您接听我们的提问。我想请Tricia或John谈谈商险业务中费用率的月度波动，以及近期的具体情况。

A – John Sauerland

So whenever we're looking at results, you should expect volatility. Let me start there in terms of loss ratio, as well as the expense ratio. In our commercialized business, we talked about non-acquisition expense ratio previously. We have actually been growing our expense ratio in our commercial business and that's been intentional and plan-ful because we're investing for future growth.

所以在我们评估经营结果时，波动性是预期中的一部分，无论是赔付率还是费用率。在我们的商险业务中，之前我们提到过非获客相关的费用率。事实上，我们的商险费用率一直在上升，这是出于有意且有计划的考虑，因为我们正在为未来增长进行投资。

Specifically, business owners program, we're now in 13 states and are feeling great about our progress there so far. We would like to get basically to the entire country with that program because we think it effectively triples our addressable marketing like commercialize business.

具体来说，在业主责任险（business owners program）方面，我们目前已经进入了13个州，对于目前的进展感到非常满意。我们希望将该项目扩展到全国范围，因为我们认为这将在实际上使我们的可覆盖商险市场扩大到三倍。

We've also invested heavily in what we call our small business insurance initiative, which is essentially the direct platform for commercialized business. And our BusinessQuote Explorer, which -- HomeQuote Explorer makes it very easy to get quotes from a variety of carriers through our direct platform there.

我们还在“中小企业保险计划”（small business insurance initiative）上投入了大量资源，这基本上是我们商险业务的直销平台。还有我们的BusinessQuote Explorer工具——类似HomeQuote Explorer——可以让客户非常方便地通过我们直销平台从多个保险公司获取报价。

So we have long-term plans to bring that expense ratio on a commercial lines business back down. But in the near-term, it's going to be slightly elevated from where we've been. That said, on a relative basis relative to our competitors, meaning we're very competitive cost structure in a commercialized business.

所以从长期来看，我们计划将商险的费用率降下来。但短期内，它会比过去略高。话虽如此，与同行相比，我们的商险费用结构仍具有很强的竞争力。

But if you're looking for commentary, specifically on the expense ratio, loss ratio for the month, we encourage you to look a little longer term, at least for the quarter.

不过，如果你是在寻求对某一特定月份的费用率或赔付率的说明，我们建议你将观察周期拉长一些，至少要看一个季度的时间。

A – Tricia Griffith

And what I would say Meyer is that this was very specifically planned several years ago when we set forth the three Horizon concept. We saw some opportunities in Horizon to mostly around commercial Auto and BOP and TNC and small business and fleet. And so, we knew that in order to invest there we had to have some money -- put some money into it. And now we're seeing the fruition of that investment.

我想补充一下，Meyer，我们几年前在制定“三阶段战略（Three Horizon Concept）”时就已经做出了明确规划。我们当时在商用车险（commercial auto）、业主保险（BOP）、交通网络公司（TNC）、中小企业以及车队险上看到了机会。因此我们知道要在这些领域投资就必须花钱——我们也确实这么做了，而现在正是这些投资开始取得成效的阶段。

So we believe it will come down over time as we have more broad coverage with these products, but we feel very good about that spend because we felt like there was an opportunity in that addressable market for us to do many new and different things to solidify. Again our commercial auto with even more products. And the pandemics been a little bit odd for small businesses, but we feel positive about that going forward in our ability to win and with that bought product on both the agency and direct side.

我们相信，随着这些产品覆盖范围的扩大，费用率会逐步下降。但我们对当前的投入感到非常满意，因为我们认为这是在可服务市场中开展新业务、拓展产品线、稳固商用车险业务的良好机会。尽管疫情对中小企业造成了一定冲击，但我们对未来仍然持乐观态度，无论是代理端还是直销端，我们都相信这些产品会帮助我们赢得市场。

Meyer Shields

Excellent. Thanks so much.

非常好，谢谢你们的回答。

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Go ahead please. Your line is open.

接下来是来自瑞银的Brian Meredith先生，请提问，您的线路已接通。

Q – Brian Meredith

My question. Chris if I look at average written premium per policy for your personal auto business it went from plus 1, 2Q to minus 2 in 3Q. Just curious is that, all due to the rate actions you've been taking or are you seeing any changes in customer buying habits i.e. higher deductibles, lower limits those types of things that may be having an impact on that as well?

我的问题是，Chris，如果我们看个人车险的平均保费，从第二季度的同比增长1%变成了第三季度的同比下降2%。请问这是完全由于你们采取的保费调降措施所致，还是也观察到客户的购买习惯发生了变化，比如选择更高免赔额、更低保障限额之类的行为也产生了影响？

Tricia Griffith

I would say the majority of that is our reduction in premiums. I haven't seen too much of a change in our business mix profile.

我认为主要原因是我们主动降低了保费。在业务组合结构上，并没有看到太大的变化。

Q – Brian Meredith

Great. Thank you.

好的，谢谢。

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Go ahead please. Your line is open.

下一位提问者是来自美国银行的Josh Shanker先生，请提问，您的线路已接通。

Josh Shanker

Thank you for taking my questions, so late in the call. I'm just wondering if we can compare shopping and JV right now when compared to where it was three years ago. I've tended to believe that when prices are going up, Progressive's seasonal shop, ever, because people are unsatisfied.

感谢你们在电话会接近尾声时仍然接听我的问题。我想问的是，当前的客户比价和联营业务（JV）情况和三年前相比有何不同？我一直认为，当价格上涨时，人们会因不满而频繁更换保险，Progressive在那时会迎来季节性的购物潮。

But now that prices are going down, maybe people widely know that there's progress to be had in auto insurance and so it might stimulate a decent amount of buying. And if you can add, is there a difference between the shopping behavior, people seeking just an auto policy and people seeking an auto and home policy?

但现在价格下降了，也许很多人知道车险市场中存在价格下调的机会，这或许会刺激一波不错的购买需求。你们是否看到只购买车险的客户与购买车险和房屋保险打包服务的客户在比价行为上存在差异？

Tricia Griffith

Yes. That's so hard, Josh, to look at and compare it three years ago. I do think that, even when prices are going down in this environment, it might be different. And this is -- I hate to use the word, it's still unprecedented. It really depends on the situation with the consumer and what they're looking for in terms of, did somebody get furloughed or waived off, et cetera.

是的，Josh，这个问题很难回答，要把现在的情况和三年前做比较并不容易。我确实认为，即便是在如今价格下降的环境下，客户行为也可能会有不同。我不太想用这个词，但这确实仍然是一个“前所未有”的环境。这很大程度上取决于消费者的具体处境，比如是否被裁员、临时休假等等。

So I think it's hard to know. And what we really focus on is making sure that have the message out there that we have that broad coverage that we have. The ability to measure our acquisition costs and now that they're under our targeted amount to get the customer in there. So it's really hard for me to say. I think what we've tried to do is just, when they are shopping regardless of the reason, we're available, we're easy and we're competitively priced. Do you want to add anything?

所以我认为这很难预测。我们更关注的是确保信息传递到位，让潜在客户知道我们拥有广泛的保障范围，以及我们对获客成本的把控——目前成本已经降到目标水平之下。因此很难给出一个具体判断。我们能做的是，不论客户出于什么原因比价，只要他们在寻找保险，我们就在那儿，我们的购买流程简单，我们的价格有竞争力。你还想补充什么吗？

John Sauerland

Yes. So I agree with Tricia. There are many different metrics around shopping behavior and they don't always agree. As Tricia noted, we're most concerned with is that we are spending efficiently to get the prospects we are getting as we know prospects are up.

是的，我同意Tricia的说法。衡量客户比价行为的方法有很多，这些指标之间并不总是统一的。正如Tricia提到的，我们最关心的是，我们是否以高效的方式获取潜在客户，我们也确实看到潜在客户数量在上升。

In terms of prospects we are getting in the behavior in terms of auto or auto home, we are increasingly being positioned as the bundle provider for certain. And we do measure consumers' perception on that. And certainly, our quotes for bundles both in the direct channel as well as the agency channel have been growing faster than in the mono line.

从我们吸引的客户来看，关于他们是只买车险还是购买车险和房屋险打包服务，我们越来越被视为打包产品的供应商。我们也在跟踪消费者对这方面的认知。毫无疑问，无论是直销渠道还是代理渠道，我们的打包产品报价增长速度都超过了单一险种。

保险也可能慢慢走向垄断，用户总是喜欢简单、便捷的服务。

Josh Shanker

Thank you very much

非常感谢。

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Suneet Kamath with Citi Research. Go ahead please. Your line is open.

接下来是花旗研究部的Suneet Kamath先生，请提问，您的线路已接通。

Suneet Kamath

Great. Thank you. I wanted to circle back to Road Test. It sounds like you have had the technology for a while, but maybe haven't focused on it or marketed it. So just curious why the decision to make a push now? And are you planning on rolling that out to existing policyholders, as well as new customers, or just new customers? Thanks.

太好了，谢谢。我想回到关于Road Test的问题。听起来你们其实早就拥有这项技术，但以前可能并没有太多推广或聚焦它。我想了解，现在为什么选择大力推进这个项目？你们打算向现有保单持有者推广这个产品，还是只面向新客户？谢谢。

Tricia Griffith

Yes. We had something called test drive years ago. I want to say five or six years ago maybe. And at the time there were some complications, because the way it was up, they need to put in some data. So we think that that was probably one of the reasons we did a little bit of advertising not a lot.

是的，我们几年前其实推出过一个叫做“test drive”的产品，大概是五六年前吧。但当时存在一些复杂问题，比如客户需要输入一些数据，因此推广起来不太顺利，也没有做太多广告宣传。

So we've been working on-road tests, just to give people the ability to still have their own coverage and test what it would be with Progressive. And again, we've been working on this for a while. We want to make it very worthy of our customers.

所以我们现在重新研发了Road Test，是为了让客户在保持自己现有保险的同时，也能测试如果使用Progressive保险会是怎样的体验。这个项目我们其实已经酝酿一段时间了，我们希望它对客户来说是非常值得尝试的。

So I'd say we've been working on this for over a year, rolled it out a couple of months ago. Data is really early, because we want to continue to learn as we spread -- as we broaden that coverage. But, yes, so you wouldn't do it if you're for a customer for -- so you'd probably have snapshot already. These are for customers that have other coverage. Again, we're going to work through the funnel economics on that and then likely roll it out more broadly in the very near future.

可以说我们已经准备了超过一年，并在几个月前上线。目前数据还很初步，因为我们希望随着覆盖范围的扩大持续优化这个项目。不过是的，如果你是我们现有客户，可能已经参与了Snapshot计划，就不会使用Road Test。这项服务主要面向尚未投保我们产品、使用其他保险公司的客户。我们会继续评估整个客户转化漏斗的经济性，并计划在不久的将来更广泛地推广。

John Sauerland

That appears to have been our final questions. So that concludes our event. James I'll hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.

看起来这已经是我们今天的最后一个问题了。此次会议就此结束。James，我将把时间交还给你来进行会议总结。

Operator

That concludes The Progressive Corporation's third quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive website for the next year. You may now disconnect.

以上是Progressive公司第三季度投资者活动的全部内容。相关重播信息将在公司官网投资者关系栏目中保留一年。现在您可以断开连接了。

2020-11-04 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

2020-11-04 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

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