2021-03-02 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q4 2020 Earnings Conference Call March 2, 2021 1:00 PM ET
Company Participants
Doug Constantine - Director, IR
Tricia Griffith - President & CEO
John Sauerland - VP & CFO
Conference Call Participants
Mike Zaremski - Credit Suisse
Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan
Michael Phillips - Morgan Stanley
Gary Ransom - Dowling & Partners
Tracy Benguigui - Barclays
Suneet Kamath - Citi
Adam Klauber - William Blair.
James Bach - KBW
Robert Cox - Goldman Sachs
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Operator
Welcome to The Progressive Corporation's Fourth Quarter Investor Event.
欢迎参加 Progressive 公司第四季度投资者会议。
The company will not make detailed comments related to quarterly results in addition to those provided in its Annual Reports on Form 10-K and the letter to shareholders, which has been posted to the company's website, and we'll use this event to respond to questions.
除了公司已在 10-K 年报和致股东信中提供的详细季度业绩评论之外，本次活动不再另行评论季度细节，这些资料均已发布在公司网站上，我们将利用本次活动回答问题。
Acting as moderator for the event will be Progressive's Director of Investor Relations, Doug Constantine. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Constantine.
担任本次活动主持人的是 Progressive 公司投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine。现在我将把电话交给 Constantine 先生。
Doug Constantine
Thank you, Chris, and good afternoon.
谢谢 Chris，大家下午好。
Although, our quarterly investor relations events typically includes a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes scheduled for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. Questions can only be asked by telephone dial-in participants. The dial-in instructions may be found at investors.progressive.com/events.
虽然我们的季度投资者关系活动通常包括针对公司业务某一特定领域的介绍，但今天，我们将用预定的 60 分钟时间，安排首席执行官的开场发言以及公司领导团队的问答环节。问题只能通过电话接入的方式提出。拨入电话的说明请参见 investors.progressive.com/events。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event.
和以往一样，本次活动中的讨论可能涉及前瞻性声明。这些声明基于管理层当前的预期，存在多种风险和不确定因素，可能导致实际事件和结果与今天讨论的内容有实质性的差异。
Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year-ended December 31, 2020, where you will find discussions of the Risk Factors affecting our businesses, Safe Harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face.
有关这些风险和不确定因素的更多信息，请参阅我们截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日的年度 10-K 报告，其中包括对影响公司业务的风险因素、涉及前瞻性声明的安全港声明以及我们面临的其他挑战的讨论。
Before going to our first question from the conference call line, our CEO, Tricia Griffith, will make some introductory comments. Tricia?
在进入电话问答环节之前，我们的首席执行官 Tricia Griffith 将做一些开场发言。Tricia，请开始。
Tricia Griffith
Good afternoon and welcome to The Progressive's fourth quarter conference call. We appreciate you joining us.
下午好，欢迎大家参加 Progressive 公司第四季度电话会议。感谢各位的参与。
As we stated during the past few quarters, 2020 was an extremely trying year for many reasons, from the global pandemic to the emotional toll caused by social unrest. As I reflect on the year we just closed, I couldn't be more proud of the way Progressive rose to these challenges by delivering fantastic results, while supporting its customers, employees, communities, and partners during these unprecedented times.
正如我们在过去几个季度所提到的，2020年因种种原因成为极具挑战的一年，从全球大流行到社会动荡所带来的情绪冲击。在回顾刚刚过去的一年时，我为 Progressive 公司应对挑战的方式深感自豪，我们不仅取得了出色的业绩，同时还在这一前所未有的时期为客户、员工、社区和合作伙伴提供了支持。
The Annual Report theme of resilience truly defines how we approached every obstacle during this past year. As of prior quarters, the fourth quarter profitability continued to benefit from reduction in frequency, which was partially offset by an increase in severity. Miles driven continued to be lower than the fourth quarter last year. We continue to react to the changes in driving behavior caused by the pandemic. In addition to the over \$1 billion given to customers in the form of credits early on in the pandemic, we also filed personal auto rate changes that averaged a decrease of approximately 3% between April and December in over 40 states that represented approximately 85% of our countrywide premium, thereby providing our customers an aggregate annualized savings estimated at about \$800 million.
我们的年度报告主题“韧性”恰如其分地定义了我们在过去一年应对每个困难时的态度。与前几个季度一样，第四季度的盈利持续受益于事故发生频率的减少，但部分被事故严重性的增加所抵消。车辆行驶里程继续低于去年第四季度。我们持续关注并应对疫情所导致的驾驶行为变化。除疫情初期以返还信用额度形式向客户提供超过10亿美元外，我们还在4月至12月期间在超过40个州申请了个人汽车保险费率的调整，平均降幅约为3%，覆盖了全国约85%的保费收入。这些举措为我们的客户每年预计节省了约8亿美元。
There's much uncertainty about reopenings, vaccine distribution, and if and when we'll return to pre-pandemic driving patterns. Our product teams are staying abreast of the situation and continue to adjust rates to related risks, which include risks such as weather.
对于经济重启、疫苗分发，以及何时以及是否能回归疫情前的驾驶模式，仍存在诸多不确定性。我们的产品团队正密切关注形势发展，并持续根据风险情况进行费率调整，包括天气等因素在内的各种风险。
We continue to recognize both policy and premium growth in the fourth quarter, which combined with the rest of the year resulted in 2020 having an increase of 2.4 million policies in force and \$3 billion more net premiums written over the prior year. This was our fourth consecutive year of double-digit PIF growth.
我们在第四季度继续实现了保单和保费的增长，连同全年数据，2020年我们有效保单数增加了240万份，净保费收入较上年增长了30亿美元。这是我们连续第四年实现有效保单数两位数的增长。
While all of our segments contributed to this growth, our agency auto business was more heavily impacted by the federal, state, and local social distancing, and shelter-in-place restrictions that were put in place to stop or slow the spread of COVID-19 which resulted in a decrease in new applications year-over-year.
尽管我们的各个业务板块都为这种增长做出了贡献，但我们的代理汽车保险业务受到联邦、州和地方政府为遏制新冠疫情传播而实施的社交隔离和居家限制措施的严重影响，导致新申请数量同比下降。
Our commercial lines business saw significant growth in the for-hire transportation business as the demand for shipping services grew as a result of the pandemic.
受疫情推动的货运服务需求增长，我们的商业险业务在租赁运输领域实现了显著增长。
On the other hand, our Uber and Lyft premiums took a hit during the year as the miles driven decreased with restrictions in place and our premiums are based on actual and estimated miles over the policy term.
另一方面，由于实施限制措施导致出行里程减少，我们基于实际和预计里程收取保费的 Uber 和 Lyft 相关业务的保费收入受到了冲击。
Our property business had a profitable fourth quarter, but with a 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season being the most active on record, it recognized an underwriting loss for the full year. Growth continued to be strong with our bundled Robinson business growing faster than any other segment. We're confident that we have the pricing and product enhancements in place to get closer to our target margins, and we will continue to make changes as we grow.
我们的财产险业务在第四季度实现了盈利，但由于2020年大西洋飓风季创下历史最活跃记录，全年财产险业务承保出现了亏损。不过，我们的捆绑式 Robinson 业务增长迅猛，超过了其他任何业务板块。我们有信心凭借现有的定价策略和产品改进逐步接近目标利润率，并将随着业务的增长继续做出必要调整。
Despite the challenges faced in light of the pandemic, our combination of strong growth and profitability in 2020 suggests we're managing the situation well.
尽管面临疫情带来的诸多挑战，我们在2020年实现的强劲增长和盈利能力表明，公司很好地应对了当前的局势。
Throughout the year, we continued to invest in our personal auto product. Our first sale was elevated to our newest product model in January. As part of our Apron Relief Program, we also launched a temporary change to Snapshot that allows existing non-snapshot customers to receive a Snapshot adjusted rate after just 30 days of monitoring as opposed to the normal six months. This, in addition to Snapshot road test, which we had available for several months, gives consumers the ability to see their Snapshot rate before purchasing a policy. While not available countrywide, where it’s available, we believe this is a perfect opportunity for some customers to lower their rates based on either their driving behavior or frequency of their driving habits that have changed as a result of the pandemic.
过去一年，我们持续投资于个人汽车保险产品。我们于1月份开始了最新产品模型的首批销售。作为“Apron Relief 计划”的一部分，我们还临时调整了 Snapshot 服务，允许未使用 Snapshot 服务的现有客户在监测30天后即可享受根据 Snapshot 调整后的费率，而非以往通常的6个月。此外，我们还推出了持续数月的 Snapshot Road Test 功能，让消费者在购买保单前即可了解其 Snapshot 调整后的费率。虽然该服务并未在全国推广，但在已开通地区，我们相信这是部分客户降低保险费用的绝佳机会，尤其是那些因疫情影响而改变了驾驶行为或降低了驾驶频率的客户。
We're also investing in our commercial lines business. Our BOP product is now active in 18 states, Illinois went live last week, and during the fourth quarter was added to our BusinessQuote Explorer platform in the direct channel.
我们也在商业保险领域持续投入。我们的企业主保险（BOP）产品目前已在18个州上线，伊利诺伊州于上周刚刚开通，且该产品已在第四季度被加入了直销渠道的 BusinessQuote Explorer 平台。
Also Smart Haul, our UBI program for truckers, continues to see excellent adoption rates and is a great asset in the for-hire trucking market. And Snapshot ProView, which expands our UBI offerings beyond truck is now available in 45 states.
此外，针对卡车司机的 UBI（基于使用情况的保险）计划 Smart Haul 持续拥有出色的采用率，在租赁运输市场中表现突出。Snapshot ProView 则进一步将 UBI 产品扩展到了卡车以外的其他商用车辆，目前已在45个州上线。
Looking to 2021, I'm happy to report that we're well positioned for further growth as reflected in our January results. We continue to make investments in pricing segmentation, cost efficiency, accurate claims handling, and expense management. Most importantly, we’ve supported our people and retained our culture, which we know will pay huge dividends going forward.
展望2021年，我很高兴地告诉大家，我们已做好了进一步增长的准备，这一点在我们1月份的业绩中已有所体现。我们将持续投资于费率细分、成本效率、精确理赔处理及费用管理。最重要的是，我们始终支持员工并保持了公司的文化，我们相信这些努力未来会带来巨大回报。
Another exciting thing about 2021 is that in April, we'll celebrate our 50th anniversary of becoming a public company. A Fun fact, if you bought 100 shares at our IPO in 1971, it would have cost you \$1,800. At the end of 2020, that initial investment would have grown to be worth over \$19 million, a 20.5 compounded annual return. Not a bad investment especially if you compare it to the 9.9% return by the S\&P 500 over that same period.
2021年另一件令人兴奋的事情是，今年4月我们将庆祝公司上市50周年。有个有趣的数据：如果你在1971年公司首次公开发行时购买了100股股票，当时需花费1800美元。截至2020年底，这笔初始投资已增长至超过1900万美元，年复合增长率达到20.5%。这一投资表现相当出色，尤其是与同期标普500指数9.9%的年回报率相比。
I just want to take this opportunity to say thank you to all of our shareholders, both past and present for investing in us over the years.
在此，我想借机向所有过去及现在的股东表达感谢，感谢大家多年来对我们的投资与支持。
Before I open it up for questions, I'd like to express how pleased and excited I'm about the agreement with Protective Insurance Corporation. We've been very impressed with Protective's products, employees, and culture. As we said in the past, commercial lines is our greatest opportunity to grow and we're excited to expand our capabilities with the expertise Protective offers, a larger fleet and affinity programs and by providing additional breadth of product lines. As you know, the acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions, and I'm sure you can appreciate that we're not able to share additional information at this time. We will provide additional information thoughts after the transaction closes.
在进入问答环节前，我还想表达一下我们对于与 Protective Insurance Corporation 达成协议的喜悦与兴奋之情。Protective 公司的产品、员工和企业文化给我们留下了深刻的印象。正如我们过去所述，商业险领域是我们最大的增长机遇，我们非常期待通过 Protective 公司丰富的经验、更大规模的车队和联盟项目，以及更加广泛的产品线来拓展我们的能力。大家都知道，此次收购还需满足惯例交割条件，因此我们目前还不能透露更多信息，敬请各位谅解。在交易完成后，我们会进一步分享我们的看法。
Chris, I think we can open it up for questions now.
Chris，我们现在可以进入问答环节了。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
接线员
\[Operator Instructions].
\[接线员说明]。
Our first question is from Mike Zaremski with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
第一个问题来自瑞士信贷的 Mike Zaremski。请提问。
Mike Zaremski
Hey, great. Good afternoon. I guess I think first question maybe on Telematics, and Tricia I listened to some of your comments, you used the word kind of reacting to changing driving patterns. You talked about uncertainty, I think about future driving patterns, and I think we all know that people's workplaces settings will probably continue to adjust into the coming year or so. So just kind of curious, is there any ways or initiatives in the company to kind of scope more all in on kind of Telematics given it feels like it could be more important than ever in order to better understand how to price risk?
下午好，很高兴参与。我的第一个问题可能涉及远程信息处理（Telematics）。Tricia，我刚刚认真听了你的讲话，你提到公司正在应对驾驶模式的变化。你还提到了未来驾驶模式的不确定性。我想大家都知道，未来一年左右人们的工作场所可能会继续发生变化。所以我想问的是，公司是否有计划或者举措更加全面地投入到远程信息处理领域？因为我觉得现在比以往任何时候都更需要通过这种方式来更准确地掌握风险定价。
Tricia Griffith
It’s a great question, Mike, and actually what I just talked about when I did my opening remarks was something that came out of a discussion that John Sauerland and Pat Callahan and John Murphy and I had when we were talking about the desire to have people -- have the rate be really relevant to people that are driving less. And so, we really in record time created the Apron Relief Snapshot Program, and because time is of the essence, and maybe people are going back to work, maybe they're partially in work, partially not, we wanted to be able to provide our UBI program with a shortened monitoring period.
这是个很好的问题，Mike。实际上，我在开场发言中提到的内容就源自我与 John Sauerland、Pat Callahan 和 John Murphy 之间的讨论。当时我们在探讨如何让我们的费率更贴近那些减少驾驶的客户的实际需求。因此，我们以创纪录的速度推出了 Apron Relief Snapshot 项目。考虑到时间紧迫，客户可能即将回归职场，也可能处于半办公半居家状态，我们希望通过缩短监测期，提供我们的 UBI 项目。
So that 30-day period is really important. So we've sent out to our current customers, millions of emails, and for those where we don't have an email, we're sending out actual USPS mail to alert our customers of this offering and make sure that if they are driving less and they do want to receive a discount or their frequency and severity of driving those down, they can opt for this option. We think that's a fantastic addition to the credits that we gave early on, the rate reductions and our road test option for consumers.
30天的监测期非常关键。我们已向现有客户发送了数百万封电子邮件，对于没有电子邮箱的客户，我们也通过美国邮政发送实体邮件，提醒客户我们有这样的产品选项。我们希望确保驾驶频率或事故风险降低的客户能选择该服务并享受到相应的费率折扣。我们认为，这是继早期提供的客户信用返还、费率下调和 Snapshot Road Test 选项后的又一重要补充。
Mike Zaremski
Okay. I'm happy to flush that out. Okay, my final question is specifically on direct-to-consumer advertising. I think we get a lot more questions these days about kind of insurtech firms and even incumbents' kind of pushing into that sandbox, and Progressive is clearly a leader, you guys are growing fast. But curious if you're seeing any of these kind of new entrants’ marketing spend influence any of the economics in the marketplace and how to think about kind of influencing Progressive's ability to win in this space, at least incrementally?
好的，感谢详细的回答。我最后一个问题涉及直接面向消费者的广告。最近我们常被问及保险科技企业，以及传统保险公司也纷纷涉足该领域。毫无疑问，Progressive 是这个领域的领导者，你们的业务增长也很迅速。但我想了解一下，你们是否感受到这些新进入者的营销支出对市场经济产生了影响？它们是否在一定程度上影响了 Progressive 在这一领域的竞争优势？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I mean I think over the years, we've seen not just our competition that we've had for a long-term, but a lot of the insurtechs going into the space where we feel like we have an advantage, of course, as we buy a large portion of our media in-house, and we make sure that when we acquire a customer that it is under our allowable cost, at or under our allowable costs. And so, I can't go into a lot of proprietary ways with which we do that. But we believe that allows us to have very reasonable acquisition costs, which we believe are much lower than in insurtech.
是的。我认为过去几年，我们不仅看到了传统竞争对手的加入，还有很多保险科技公司进入到这个我们认为具有优势的领域。当然，我们的大部分媒体购买都是公司内部完成的，我们确保客户的获取成本始终在我们允许的成本范围之内。因此，我无法具体说明我们的专有方式。但我们认为，这让我们的获客成本一直处于非常合理的水平，显著低于保险科技公司的成本。
John Sauerland
Mike, to that I would add, you’ve noted our advertising costs are going up, meaning our spend is going up, and we only spend what we believe it is sufficient. So we have an allowable acquisition cost by segment, and we spend up to that. So generally speaking, if you're seeing our advertising spend go up, you should assume that it's continuing to be very efficient in getting us to the customer set we're after very effectively across all the mediums. So I would say in aggregate at our spend level, we really haven't seen much impact from those newer entrants in the advertising space.
Mike，我再补充一点。你可能注意到我们的广告成本在增加，这意味着我们的投入在增加，但我们只会投入足以达到预期效果的金额。我们对不同业务板块有明确的获客成本限制，并只会支出至该限额。因此，如果你们看到我们的广告支出增加，一般而言，这意味着我们的广告投入依旧高效，能够有效地吸引我们所需要的客户群体，覆盖各种媒介。总体而言，从我们的投入和效果来看，这些新进入者的广告活动并未对我们产生太大影响。
Operator
接线员
Our next question is from Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar，请提问。
Jimmy Bhullar
I had a question first just on personal auto pricing and frequency trends. And it seems like many of your competitors, especially the larger ones, are much more focused on sort of reviving growth and market share because margins have been good for everybody. So what are you seeing in terms of pricing? And are you concerned that maybe pricing continues to soften as frequency begins to pick up as we go through the rest of the year?
我的第一个问题是关于个人汽车保险的定价和事故频率趋势。看起来你们的很多竞争对手，尤其是一些较大的公司，由于最近整体利润率较好，更专注于重振增长和市场份额。你们怎么看待当前的市场定价趋势？随着今年剩余时间事故频率的逐步回升，你们是否担心定价可能会持续走软？
Tricia Griffith
Well, I think all of us try to do the right thing by consumers initially, and so whether it's credits or giveback, et cetera, I think that was an important part. And now for Progressive for sure, we went in surgically to give the discounts I talked about on average 3%, realize that is on average. So we’re looking very surgically at each state, channel, and products to give the right discount to make sure we manage that tradeoff between growth and profitability.
我想一开始我们所有公司都希望为客户做正确的事，无论是提供信用返还或现金返还等措施，这都是非常重要的。对于Progressive公司而言，我们采取了非常精准的方式来提供折扣，正如我刚才提到的，平均折扣约为3%，但请注意这是平均水平。我们正非常细致地分析每个州、每个渠道和每个产品，确保提供适当的折扣，以有效地平衡增长与盈利。
So, I think that, I'm assuming our competitors are doing similar things. For us, it really is about that balance of growth and profitability, and so we're pretty proud of the fact that in 2020, even with the reduced rates and shopping down substantially during the first part of the pandemic, we were able to grow both in prospects and sales on a full year. So, that's really our concentration. We obviously look across our competitor set to see if prices are down. John, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this last February, we look at a few big competitors price rates -- prices are still down, premium is down about 1.7%. And so, yes, I think it will continue to be a challenge to grow, but we are up against that challenge as you can see by our January results.
我想其他公司应该也在做类似的事情。对我们来说，增长与盈利之间的平衡至关重要，因此我们对2020年的表现感到自豪。尽管疫情初期费率有所下降，客户询价显著减少，我们全年仍在潜在客户和销售方面实现了增长。这正是我们关注的焦点。我们当然也观察竞争对手的情况，看费率是否持续下降。John，如果我说错了请指正，但据我所知，今年2月份，我们查看了一些主要竞争对手的费率情况，他们的费率仍在下降，整体保费下降约1.7%。因此，我认为增长仍将是一项持续的挑战，但正如我们1月份的表现所示，我们已做好应对这些挑战的准备。
Jimmy Bhullar
Okay. And then you highlighted Protective in your comments, but where should we see more of an immediate impact on your business from the deal? And sort of what are your longer-term aspirations on what you can do with the business?
好的。你在讲话中提到了Protective公司，能否分享一下该收购交易完成后，你们的业务在哪些方面可能更快看到明显的影响？从长远看，你们对该业务有什么期望或目标？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, I'm sure you can appreciate that. I can't go into a lot of details until the transaction closes. But suffice it to say, it gives us access to a larger addressable market and affinity programs, and we were impressed with the culture and the people of Protective.
我想你应该理解，在交易正式完成之前，我无法透露太多具体细节。不过可以透露的是，这笔交易将使我们能够进入更大的目标市场和更多的联盟项目。此外，Protective公司的企业文化及员工团队也给我们留下了非常深刻的印象。
Jimmy Bhullar
Okay. And then maybe just one more, on Texas have you disclosed anything or are you able to disclose anything in terms of your exposure?
好的，我还有最后一个问题。关于德克萨斯州，你们是否已经披露了任何有关损失敞口的信息？或者现在是否可以分享一些这方面的情况？
Tricia Griffith
Well, the losses are coming in, and obviously, it was a big storm. And what I can say is that, Gary Traicoff’s team is working to kind of understand our ultimate reserves, but I'm confident at this juncture with the data I have that it will pierce our \$80 million retention threshold on our reinsurance.
目前损失的数据正在陆续进来，很明显，这次风暴的规模相当大。我可以告诉你的是，Gary Traicoff的团队正在努力评估我们最终需要的准备金。但根据我目前掌握的信息，我确信此次事件的损失将超过我们再保险8000万美元的自留额。
Operator
接线员
Our next question is from Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Michael Phillips，请提问。
Michael Phillips
Thanks. Good morning or good afternoon. I guess it's just non-commercial lines. Can you talk about your either given what you currently have either your need, or maybe your willingness to do more acquisitions to continue to expand in the commercial line space?
谢谢，早上好或下午好。我想问一个关于非商业险的延伸问题。就你们目前的业务布局而言，你们是否有进一步的需求或意愿，通过更多收购来继续扩展你们在商业险领域的业务？
Tricia Griffith
We always look where we have not been a big acquirer of companies; we always look at both in terms of do we buy, build or partner. And for the most part, whether it's in private passenger auto, or commercial lines, we've tried to build or buy; depending on if you got to something faster, we prefer to grow organically. Obviously, the ARX acquisition had a lot to do with access to customers; we wanted to be able to have those Robinsons in the agency side. When we looked at acquisitions across the commercial landscape, we thought the Protective 1 got us to a larger addressable market that that we may or may not have gotten to at a certain point.
我们一直在评估扩张机会，虽然我们历来不是频繁收购公司的企业，但我们始终在权衡“收购、自建还是合作”的最佳路径。不论是在个人汽车保险还是商业险领域，我们一般都尝试通过自建或收购来发展。如果某项业务需要更快实现，我们会考虑收购，但整体上我们更偏好有机增长。当然，我们当初收购 ARX 是为了获得更广泛的客户覆盖，尤其是希望在代理渠道能够拥有更多“Robinson”客户群体。在我们评估商业险领域的潜在收购时，我们认为 Protective 的加入能让我们进入一个更广阔的目标市场，而这个市场我们未必在短期内能够自然进入。
We have a lot of irons in the fire right now, though, on commercial as well in terms of growth. And in fact, over the years, I think we've talked about the horizons. And Horizon Two is our biggest growth opportunity. And so right now our focus is really to continue to grow with our bought product, which I talked about, we just rolled out in 18 states, we went from fleet of less than 10 vehicles to 40 and that continues to grow, small business.
目前我们在商业险领域也有很多并行推进的增长项目。事实上，我们一直在谈“增长视野”，而“第二视野”（Horizon Two）是我们最大的增长机会所在。当前我们重点是扩大我们的 BOP 产品业务，这款产品已在18个州上线，我们的车队规模也从10辆以下扩展到了40辆，目标客户是小型企业，这一块还在继续增长中。
And then of course, our relationship with a few different companies and transportation network companies. So that's really our focus. We have so many exciting things going on in Horizon Two to grow. If we see something that makes sense, we'll obviously look at it obviously, I can't talk about that if we would but we really do prefer to grow organically and have done so for the past 80 plus years.
此外，我们还与多家公司以及出行平台公司有合作关系，这些都是我们的战略重点。在 Horizon Two 领域我们有很多令人兴奋的增长项目正在进行中。如果我们发现确实合适的收购机会，我们当然会考虑，但在当前阶段无法透露太多。总的来说，我们的首选仍然是有机增长，过去80多年来一直如此。
Michael Phillips
Okay, thanks, Tricia. Second one for me is on homeowners and property business, you mentioned in the introductory comments, I guess can you talk about how I guess how satisfied you're with results there in terms of profitability, and then related, somewhat related can you give us an update on the reception in the market for your HomeQuote product?
好的，谢谢你，Tricia。我第二个问题是关于房主险和财产险业务的。你在开场发言中提到了一些相关内容，能否谈谈你对该业务盈利表现的满意程度？以及相关地，你能否介绍一下 HomeQuote 产品在市场上的反响和接受度如何？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. Let me, look, well, I was very satisfied with the property results in January and the fourth quarter. That, of course, does not take up the whole year. And if you take out weather-related, including cash and other weather, we feel like we're in a good position. So we've taken rates up substantially, we've changed our product model; we continue to have deeper segmentation. February is not going to be a great -- February is not going to be a great month for the industry because of the winter storm and we try to obviously put a load in for those events. And last year was another unprecedented year of hurricanes. So I'm happy with the product. I'm happy with our continued ability to segment, I'm happy with the fact that we're growing Robinsons across the board in both direct and agency channel, we've increased our Platinum agents.
是的。首先，我对我们在1月份和第四季度的财产险业务结果非常满意。当然，这并不能代表全年的表现。如果剔除天气相关因素，包括灾害事件，我们认为整体处于良好状态。我们已经大幅提高了保费费率，调整了产品模型，并持续加深市场细分。2月份可能对整个行业来说都不是一个理想的月份，因为冬季风暴影响严重，我们也预留了相应损失准备。去年飓风季同样也是历史性的。因此，我对我们的产品感到满意，对我们持续优化细分策略感到满意，也对我们在直销和代理渠道中 Robinson 客户的增长感到高兴，我们的白金级代理商数量也有所增加。
And I think you're referring to the HomeQuote Explorer, very happy there. So we sell Progressive Home along with many other unaffiliated partners. And that's been higher growth than even the agency channel; we're very excited about that. It's our highest growing segment.
你提到的应该是 HomeQuote Explorer，我们对它非常满意。我们通过这个平台销售 Progressive 自家的房主险产品，同时也销售许多第三方合作伙伴的产品。该渠道的增长速度甚至高于我们的代理渠道，是我们增长最快的板块之一，我们对此感到非常振奋。
And when you think about having customers for life that was really our basis for acquiring ARX is to make sure that we have those auto home bundled one to allow us to extend our auto policy life expectancy. So our retention, of course, is the Holy Grail, but also have those customers for life, so as their needs change, we have them. We didn't want to be the train wheels when people want home. So those customers we see out on toys and life and other products that we're able to offer either on our paper or not. And I'll tell you, although we don't talk about this externally, the policy life expectancy on Robinson versus some of the other segments are extraordinarily higher. And so we're very happy with that growth. And we'll continue to invest in that area.
我们当初收购 ARX 的核心原因，就是为了打造“终身客户”体系。我们希望通过将汽车险与房主险打包销售，延长汽车险的保单生命周期。客户留存是我们的“圣杯”，但我们也希望能伴随客户一生，随着客户需求的变化，始终为他们提供服务。我们不希望仅仅成为客户第一次买房险时的“辅助轮”。我们看到这些客户也会在娱乐类产品、人寿保险和其他保险产品上产生需求，有些产品是我们自营，有些则通过合作伙伴提供。我可以透露，虽然我们对外很少谈这一点，但 Robinson 客户的保单生命周期远远高于其他细分群体，因此我们对这一增长方向感到非常满意，并将继续在这方面投资。
John Sauerland
And we're taking action, Progressive Home team on profitability. So last year, we took rates up for our property products a 11.5% basically those are annual policies that all hasn't earned in. We've also taken steps to better balance where we're writing homes to ensure our storm risk is diversified. We've taken actions in terms of policy coverage, as well to ensure that our interests are more aligned with our insurers when it comes to storm losses. So I think we've taken a lot of actions that should show benefits coming into this year. I expect we'll continue to take upgrades this year.
此外，Progressive Home 团队已经采取多项措施来改善盈利能力。去年我们对财产险产品的费率上调了11.5%，这些都是年度保单，尚未完全计入当期收入。我们也在重新平衡房险业务的地区布局，以分散暴风天气的风险。同时我们也对保单责任条款进行了调整，以确保在遇到灾害损失时我们的利益与客户更为一致。我认为这些措施在今年将开始带来积极成效，我们预计今年还会继续进行必要的费率调整。
But as Tricia noted, it's not surprising to know that February would be a tougher start for the year. But again, I think the Progressive Home team has taken the right actions to get profitability where we wanted for home. And as Tricia noted, we're writing a lot more auto because we have home in the agency channel. You know, think of over a billion of very profitable auto insurance that we believe we would not have had through agents we're now for the opportunity to bundle with risk.
不过，正如 Tricia 提到的，2月份是一个较为艰难的开局并不令人意外。但我认为 Progressive Home 团队确实采取了正确措施，正在推动房险业务实现我们预期的盈利水平。正如 Tricia 所说，我们的代理渠道房险业务也帮助我们大幅增加了汽车险的保单量。据估算，我们新增的超过10亿美元高利润汽车险业务，很大程度上得益于能够通过房险进行打包销售，这在以前是通过代理渠道难以实现的。
Operator
接线员
Our next question is from Gary Ransom with Dowling & Partners. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自 Dowling & Partners 的 Gary Ransom，请提问。
Gary Ransom
Yes. I wanted to follow-up on Robinsons and I saw that you increased Platinum agents. And I saw that the -- well it's actually the 12-month policies are up to 12% of the independent agent channel, which I assume as a proxy for the bundles there. But I guess I was trying to get a sense of what's going on in the direct side, because you're apparently growing bundles there also how is that? Can you give us a sense of that?
我想跟进一下关于 Robinson 客户群的问题。我注意到你们的 Platinum（白金）代理商数量有所增加，而且我看到你们的 12 个月保单在独立代理渠道的占比已经达到了 12%，我猜这可以看作是捆绑销售（bundle）的一个代表指标。但我也想了解一下直销渠道的情况，因为看起来你们那边的 bundle 业务也在增长，能否介绍一下那部分的发展情况？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. Well in fact, we're growing bundles even more rapidly on the direct side. And remember those bundles, some of them are with Progressive Home and some are with unaffiliated partners. So we continue to grow both Robinsons and rates in the direct channel. We continue to invest and having the right partnerships to make sure that like John said that we expand our ability to have Robinsons throughout the country and not be so concentrated in the states that -- where there when we first started the acquisition. But we're happy with the growth in the direct side, very happy.
是的，事实上，我们在直销渠道的 bundle 业务增长速度甚至更快。需要说明的是，这些 bundle 中一部分是和 Progressive Home 搭配销售的，另一部分则是与非关联合作伙伴的产品进行组合。因此，我们在直销渠道中，不仅在 Robinson 客户数量上增长，在费率方面也在持续提升。我们也在持续投资、建立合适的合作关系，正如 John 所说，我们的目标是将 Robinson 模式推广到全国各地，而不只是集中在我们最初开展业务的几个州。我们对直销渠道的增长非常满意，确实非常满意。
John Sauerland
Gary, just to clarify, you're right to think of the annual policies, just being written by Platinum agents, those are not exclusively Robinsons. They are by far enough away predominately Robinsons, but patients who are Platinum can write annual policies with non-Robinson customers, but it's certainly not part of the majority there. And in direct channel, we do not offer the annual policy for auto.
Gary，为了澄清一下，你说得没错，12 个月期的保单确实是由 Platinum 代理商负责承保的，但这些保单并不全是 Robinson 客户。虽然绝大多数是 Robinson，但 Platinum 代理也可以为非 Robinson 客户开具年度保单，只不过这部分并不占多数。另外，在直销渠道，我们并没有提供 12 个月期的汽车险保单。
Tricia Griffith
We called out that segment. If you recall, we had the Sam, Diane, Wrights and Robinsons. The Wrights are where it's our auto policy and another home on affiliate partners.
我们曾经对客户群体做过分类，你可能记得，我们划分了 Sam、Diane、Wright 和 Robinson 几个细分。其中 Wright 客户就是那种购买了我们的汽车险，同时房屋险则来自我们的合作伙伴的客户。
Gary Ransom
Right. Okay. And can you talk a little bit about the Platinum agents too? And I think you've disclosed that for the last three years now. And it's been kind of a steady increase, is there a continued interest among the agencies, agents that you deal with, I'm just trying to get a sense of the underlying trends that are going on there for you?
明白了。那你能再多谈谈 Platinum 代理商的情况吗？我记得你们过去三年都有披露这部分数据，并且一直是在稳定增长。你们合作的这些代理机构是否仍对该计划保持浓厚兴趣？我想了解一下这背后趋势的动态。
Tricia Griffith
When we first rolled it out, we really sort of went in it with a scarcity model. And as we've grown and developed, we realized that and we want to make sure that when we make the effort to give you the ability to write annual policies and more commission et cetera, that you're able to have Progressive Home and Progressive Auto be like the number one or two choice in your agency.
我们最初推出 Platinum 计划时，其实是按照“稀缺模式”来设计的，也就是说我们限制了参与的代理数量。随着业务的发展，我们意识到：如果我们希望代理商愿意销售年度保单、获得更高佣金等回报，我们必须确保 Progressive 的 Home 和 Auto 产品在他们心中是优先选择之一。
What we realize though, is around the country, there are some places that and some agencies that are really willing and wanting to write Robinsons, but we didn't necessarily make them Platinum agents, because they might be a smaller agency. But what comes in the door, they want to write often with Progressive. And so that's really been the reason and desire, why we've expanded the number of Platinum agents.
后来我们也发现，全国各地有些较小型的代理机构虽然规模不大，但他们非常愿意销售 Robinson 客户群的组合保单，且经常首选 Progressive 的产品。虽然他们未被最初纳入 Platinum 计划，但他们的意愿和配合度很高。因此，我们扩大了 Platinum 代理商的覆盖面，这就是我们近期增加代理商数量的主要原因。
John Sauerland
And Gary, we are as you saw close to 4,000 Platinum agents, added a couple 100 this year, probably a bit lower than we would have otherwise, had we not had COVID going on. But if you're wondering if Platinum agents are growing faster than the rest of the agent population, the answer is definitely yes. We won't be able to share that number regularly. But I believe we shared that in a previous Investor Presentation. And I would tell you the trend on terms of relative growth has continued for Platinum agent -- agents excuse me.
Gary，你应该已经看到，我们目前的 Platinum 代理商数量接近 4000 家，今年新增了几百家。如果不是受到疫情影响，这个数字原本还会更高。如果你想知道 Platinum 代理商的增长速度是否快于整个代理商群体的平均水平，答案是肯定的。我们不会定期披露具体数字，但我记得我们在先前的投资者简报中曾经分享过这一点。而且可以明确告诉你，Platinum 代理商的相对增长趋势仍在持续，发展势头非常强劲。
Operator
接线员
Our next question is from Tracy Benguigui with Barclays. Your line is open.
下一位提问的是来自巴克莱的 Tracy Benguigui，请发言。
Tracy Benguigui
Thank you. Could we talk a bit about your targeted 96% combined ratio, which is thinking about risk adjusted returns on capital? I would assume that's not static across business lines, and you just provided some color on homeowners and commercial lines. So how would you characterize your targeted combined ratios for businesses that are of higher severity?
谢谢。我们能否谈一谈你们所设定的96%综合赔付率目标？这显然是基于风险调整后的资本回报在制定的。我想这并不是对所有业务板块都统一适用的标准。你们刚才提到了一些关于房主险和商业险的内容。那么，对于那些具有更高赔付严重性的业务，你们是如何设定目标综合赔付率的？
Tricia Griffith
We lead obviously our 96%, we've talked about this, a fair amount is in aggregate. So we look at the 96% across products, across new and renewal business, across different channels, because the acquisition costs being different. And then we also look at the ROE on every one of our products as well and try to understand how those two interact together. And so although we don't share anything other than the 96%, we keep -- we think about their risk adjusted rate of return as we develop our targets for each of those combined ratios.
我们确实是以96%的综合赔付率为总体目标，这一点我们在很多场合都谈过。但需要说明的是，这个目标是整体维度的。我们在设定时，会综合考虑各类产品、新旧保单、不同渠道之间的差异，因为客户获取成本是不同的。同时我们也会分别查看各产品线的股东权益回报率（ROE），并分析 ROE 与综合赔付率之间的互动关系。因此，虽然我们对外只披露96%的整体目标，但在制定各业务的赔付率目标时，我们确实是以风险调整后的回报为基础来进行内部规划的。
John Sauerland
Yes, just to elaborate a little, we have shared previously in Investor Call relative ranges and combined ratios that we're targeting by each product line and your correct it's not only the severity of claims, but it's generally the volatility and results that drives what relatively speaking the amount of capital, we need to hold against that product line. And we also take into account that there's longer tails in some of those lines. So there are different investing returns across lines of business and bring all that together and generally speaking, target a common ROE. It's not perfect. But those combined ratios that we target by product are definitely driven by our perception of ROE by product line.
是的，我来稍作补充。我们过去在投资者电话会上确实分享过各条产品线对应的目标赔付率范围。你说得对，设定赔付率不仅要考虑赔付的严重程度，还要看整体结果的波动性，这些都会决定我们对每条业务线需要预留多少资本。此外，一些业务线的责任尾部更长，投资收益率也不同。因此我们会综合所有因素，目标是实现一个相对一致的股东回报率。虽然这不是一个完全精确的机制，但可以肯定地说，我们针对每个产品制定的赔付率目标都是根据该产品线的 ROE 预期来决定的。
Tracy Benguigui
Okay, thank you. Yes, I'm familiar with that slide. I guess, looking for some, I guess, underlying guidance, but you said you don't disclose that. So I'll move on. I know that you don't really want to talk about Protective. I'll dance around it a bit and recognize that that does bring in workers comp business. I'm just curious more broadly, what your risk appetite is when looking at workers comp?
好的，谢谢你。是的，我了解你提到的那个幻灯片。我原本是希望你们能提供一些更具体的内部指导，但你们刚刚说不公开细分数据，那我就换个问题。我知道你们目前还不愿谈 Protective 的具体内容，我换种方式提问——我知道这次交易涉及的是带有工伤险业务的公司。我想更广泛地了解一下，你们对工伤保险这类业务的风险容忍度是怎样的？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, again I'm excited to talk about that once we close this transaction and what'll commit to all of you is I'll have in a subsequent quarterly call Karen Bailo, our President of Commercial Lines coming and talk about it. But, we talked about Progressive strengths are in complementary lines of business and coverages for the transportation industry, where we have been successful in the past. And that was a big selling point for us as well as their affinity programs. And that's really all I can say until the transaction closes.
是的，我也非常期待能在交易完成后与你们详细讨论这个问题。我可以承诺，交易完成后，我们会在接下来的季度电话会议中请我们商业险总裁 Karen Bailo 出面讲解细节。此前我们也讲过，Progressive 的强项在于为运输行业提供补充性业务线和保障方案，这些业务过去我们已经做得很成功。这是我们看中这笔交易的重要原因之一，同时他们的联盟项目也是关键卖点。至于其他细节，交易正式完成前我暂时无法进一步说明。
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. Looking --
好的，那我—
John Sauerland
Go ahead.
请继续。
Tracy Benguigui
Oh, no, go ahead.
哦，没事，请你先说。
John Sauerland
I was just going to offer generically, we are in complementary lines, in order to write more vehicle business is the way to think about it, right? So for a long time, we said, we weren't going to go into home, we recognized the opportunity through independent agents, where we found that we had to have our own product in order to penetrate the Robinson market and independent agents. So that probably wouldn't have been our preferred route. And we didn't take it until we absolutely saw the necessity to do so to continue to grow rapidly in that vehicle line. So I think you should think about other lines of business to some degree, being complementary in order to continue to grow the business as fast as we can.
我想简单补充一下总体思路：我们之所以进入一些补充性业务，是为了支持我们主业——车险业务的进一步扩展。打个比方，过去我们一直说不会进入房屋保险市场，直到我们通过独立代理渠道发现，如果想在 Robinson 客户群和代理网络中真正取得突破，就必须拥有自己的房险产品。这并不是我们一开始的首选路径，但为了推动车险主业的快速发展，我们最终选择了这条路。因此你可以将其他产品线看作是我们在持续扩张车险业务过程中，为实现最大增长而设立的配套业务。
这个目标暂时是清晰的，只是对捆绑有些怀疑。
Operator
接线员
Our next question is from Suneet Kamath with Citi. Your line is open.
下一位提问的是花旗银行的 Suneet Kamath，请发言。
Suneet Kamath
Thanks. Did you say in your prepared remarks, what the take up rate has been in terms of the 30-day snapshot and relatedly, how far through the book, are you in terms of offering that that feature?
谢谢。你们在之前的发言中是否有提到关于“30天 Snapshot”计划的采纳率？以及，你们现在在整体保单客户中推广这一功能的进度到了哪一步？
Tricia Griffith
It’s pretty new. We started offering it in February. I think it's been sent out to maybe 5 million customers, I want to say, so far we've had 9,000 that have gone through and gotten just kind of might be off on a little bit of a number. So it's relatively new. Again, we had to file that. So we're through every state regulators to get that approved. And in some states, you can't do that, we don't have UBI. But we're pretty excited about that because I think really did put, in the hands of our customers, the ability to lower their rates, if they're driving less. We'll have more on that next quarter once it kind of flows through the system.
这个项目还是非常新的。我们是从2月份开始推出的。我记得大概向500万名客户发送了相关邀请，目前大约有9,000名客户已经完成了使用流程（这个数字可能有点偏差）。所以现在还处在初期阶段。这个项目需要逐州向监管机构申报并获批，因此不是每个州都可以实施的，特别是没有使用 UBI 的州。但我们对此项目感到非常兴奋，因为它真正把控制费率的能力交到了客户手中——如果他们开车更少，就能享受更低的费率。等到这一项目逐步在系统中运行稳定后，我们会在下个季度提供更多数据更新。
Suneet Kamath
Got it. And then my second question is, I believe on one of these calls last year, you guys spent a lot of time talking about some updates to your homeowners, sort of predictive models. I know 2020 was kind of an odd year. But just any sense in terms of how the new models held up. If you can say anything given how odd last year was?
了解了。第二个问题是，我记得你们在去年的一次电话会议中曾花了很多时间讨论房主险的预测模型更新。虽然2020年确实是一个特殊年份，但你们是否能谈一谈这些新模型的表现如何？考虑到去年的异常情况，如果可以的话，能否分享一些观察？
Tricia Griffith
And when you're saying models, are you talking about like the models we look at for weather or overall like our segmentation models internally?
你说的模型，是指我们用于天气预测的模型，还是我们内部用来做市场细分的那些模型？
Suneet Kamath
Yes, the former, related to weather. I think that was what you guys were highlighting?
是的，是前者，跟天气相关的。我记得当时你们强调的是这部分。
Tricia Griffith
Yes. In a sense that actually, we have hired a new risk and reinsurance leader, who was really going to be focusing on, looking at our risk appetite and being more holistic across the enterprise. And then he, what is his big opportunity is to look at is assessing our reliance on models and our usage so a little bit more to come on that. And I think being more planful and coordinated with our placements of reinsurance. So I know it's a little bit off of that, but I know we rely on the Karen Clark model these storms have been pretty unprecedented.
是的，实际上我们新聘请了一位风险与再保险的负责人，他将专注于评估我们的整体风险容忍度，并在整个公司层面推动更系统性的管理。他的一个重要任务就是评估我们对模型的依赖程度及其使用情况——这方面后续会有更多内容发布。我认为未来我们在再保险配置方面也会更加有计划、更具协同。
I hate using that word again. But the Hurricane season last year was immense in terms of numbers and the numbers that made landfall. And then of course, rarely do you get a winter storm like we had a few weeks ago. So the models generally take those into account. Having somebody with Brandon's depth, I think will really help us to understand and fine tune our reliance on those models. Do you want to add anything, John?
虽然这个回答稍微偏离了你的提问方向，但我想补充一点：我们目前确实依赖于 Karen Clark & Company 的模型，而去年经历的风暴确实是“史无前例”的（我不太愿意再用这个词，但确实如此）。去年登陆的飓风数量非常庞大，然后几周前我们还遭遇了一场极为罕见的冬季风暴。虽然这些模型通常是能覆盖这类极端情况的，但我们有像 Brandon 这样经验丰富的人加入，会真正帮助我们更好地理解并调整对模型的依赖程度。你还有补充吗，John？
不了解房主保险的本质，是跳出能力圈的业务。
John Sauerland
No, thanks.
没有了，谢谢。
Operator
接线员
Our next question is from Adam Klauber with William Blair. Your line is open.
下一位提问的是 William Blair 的 Adam Klauber，请发言。
Adam Klauber
Thanks. How's the BOP rollout coming? Are you at a point where you can get more aggressive with it? And at what point will that actually start moving the needle?
谢谢。你们的 BOP（企业主保单）推广目前进展如何？现在是否已经到了可以更积极推进的阶段？另外，这个产品大概什么时候会开始对整体业务产生显著影响？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. So we just rolled out our 18th stay. And I would say yes, we're at the point where it's our thought process. I'm working with Karen and her team to get more aggressive with because it's an exciting new product. We've obviously invested in it over the last couple of years. So while I can't give you the exact state rollout, I think the word you use is accurate. Would you want to get aggressive with our rollout of BOP as the year progresses. Last year there's so much going on, so much noise in the system we have a lot going on our commercial side, but I know Karen's really excited to move on now.
是的，我们刚刚在第18个州上线了 BOP 产品。我会说，现在确实到了我们可以更积极推进的时候了。我正与 Karen 及她的团队密切合作，加快步伐，因为这是一个非常令人振奋的新产品。过去几年我们已经投入了大量资源。虽然我无法透露接下来具体在哪些州上线，但你用的“更积极”这个词非常贴切。我们确实计划在今年逐步加速 BOP 的推广。去年由于整体系统中有太多事务在同时进行，特别是商业险领域事务繁杂，所以进展稍慢。但我知道 Karen 现在非常期待能够大步推进这项工作。
Adam Klauber
Great. And then TNC was obviously down last year for various reasons, have miles driven started picking-up in that more recently?
很好。再问一下关于 TNC（交通网络公司，比如 Uber、Lyft）方面的业务。去年这块业务明显下滑，原因大家也都知道。那最近这部分的行驶里程是否开始回升了？
Tricia Griffith
Somewhat not to where it was pre-pandemic and we're watching that really closely. And of course, we have great relationship with both Uber and Lyft. And we work with them on the rate and watching that driving behavior. And of course, it differs by state as well, but it's not up to pre-pandemic level.
是的，确实有所回升，但还远没有恢复到疫情前的水平。我们一直在密切关注这方面的变化。当然，我们与 Uber 和 Lyft 都保持着非常良好的合作关系，我们会根据驾驶行为共同商讨费率调整。而且，各州之间的恢复情况也不同。不过总体来说，还没有回到疫情前的水平。
Adam Klauber
Okay and then sorry last question. You do a lot of digital, digital marketing, you get a lot of customers that way, is the amount of customers whether it's auto or through home, actually doing the full from quote to buying is that increasing or is it still mainly more of a shopping vehicle?
好的，最后一个问题。你们一直非常重视数字营销，也通过这种方式吸引了大量客户。那么无论是车险还是房险，愿意从线上获取报价一直到完成购买整个流程的客户比例是否在上升？还是说现在线上更多还是作为一个比价平台？
Tricia Griffith
No, that's been increasing over the years, I don't have the exact percentage, I don’t know if you do John, but that's been increasing over the years because I think a lot of people shop that way and want buying that way. In fact, we've invested a lot on that with our quoting on HQX and we have more ability than ever to be able to bind and buy online, both auto and home and also on the agency channel. We've had portfolio of quoting, which allows them to do that as well. So one of our strategic pillars is broad coverage be where, when and how customers want to shop. So if I'm on my phone, I want to be able to bind or with an agent or online, so that continues to increase as well.
不是的，这个比例这些年确实在持续增长。我没有确切的数字，不知道 John 有没有，但可以肯定的是，越来越多的人确实倾向于在线完成整个购买流程。实际上，我们在 HQX 系统上投入了大量资源，使我们现在比以往任何时候都更有能力在网上完成绑定与购买，无论是车险还是房险。此外，在代理渠道方面，我们也推出了组合报价功能，客户可以直接完成在线交易。我们的战略重点之一就是“广泛覆盖”，也就是说要在客户希望的时间、地点、方式为其提供服务。如果客户在手机上浏览，他应该能直接完成绑定；如果想通过代理或网站，也都能实现。这方面的转化率确实在不断提升。
Operator
接线员
\[Operator Instructions].
\[操作指示]
Our next question is from James Bach with KBW. Your line is open.
下一位提问的是 KBW 的 James Bach，请发言。
James Bach
So just looking beyond the obvious growth drivers like the favorable rate environment, can you explain more specifics for Progressive, how important the product launches and the sustained investment in those launches is to growth and possibly enhancing that moving forward? And also how immediate is the payoff for those kinds of investments and those product rollouts?
除了利率环境等显而易见的增长驱动因素之外，能否更具体地说明在 Progressive 的增长中，产品推出以及对这些产品持续投入的重要性？这些投入对于推动公司未来增长的作用有多大？以及，这类产品投放和投资回报的实现周期通常有多快？
Tricia Griffith
Well, I think, as we talk about our rollouts, whether it's been in Horizon One or Two, I think the product launches are really important. And when we look at what we believe is a strength of ours in industry-leading segmentation, we believe that we'll continue to be a strength of ours. And so we just -- we're finishing our 86 product are in the midst of that, I should say, we rolled out on the auto side 87 in January. And that gives us greater segmentation which is again the right rate for the right risk. And so I think the product models have always been our strengths.
我认为无论是在 Horizon One 还是 Horizon Two 阶段，我们一直强调产品的推出非常关键。我们在行业领先的风险细分能力上有明显优势，并认为这将继续是我们的重要竞争力。目前我们正在完成第86号产品模型的工作——确切地说，我们在1月份已经在车险方面推出了第87号模型。这让我们能够实现更精细的细分，确保“为每一类风险匹配合适的费率”。所以产品模型始终是我们的核心优势之一。
We feel the same way on the product side; we're rolling out our NextGen 4.0 product model. And it's always in flux. So we never -- we never say here is a product model, we'll roll it out and not try to make it better, we try to make it better. So there's little we can have, things along the way that will add into the product models once we see if it adds value to get more consumers that are profitable consumers. So that product model period is really important. And it's one of our -- when we think about competitive prices, which of course, this is such a price sensitive industry. Cost and segmentation are a big advantage for us and very important.
在产品方面我们始终持这种态度：我们正在推广的 NextGen 4.0 产品模型本身就是不断迭代的过程。我们从不会说“这是一个成型的产品模型，推出后就结束了”，而是不断优化它。我们会持续加入新的变量和机制，只要它们能够带来更多高质量、具备盈利能力的客户。整个产品模型的生命周期非常重要。尤其在这样一个价格极度敏感的行业中，成本控制和风险细分是我们在价格竞争力方面最关键的优势。
John Sauerland
And just to add to that, we see the change in customer mix as an example, immediately. So we've been predominantly enhancing our segmentation towards the preferred end of the marketplace. And every time we introduce a new product model, we're seeing a furthering shift towards that more Preferred Customer set. So it is a huge part of our business. It's a huge competitive advantage. We believe we've invested a lot to ensure that we're very fast to market when we find new rating variables or underwriting approaches. And again, we see the benefit very quickly in terms of who we're writing and who we're converting at a higher rate.
补充一点，我们几乎能立即观察到客户结构的变化。我们的细分策略主要是向高质量客户（Preferred Segment）倾斜。每次推出新的产品模型，我们都会看到客户群逐渐向这一类别转移。这是我们业务中非常核心的一环，也是极大的竞争优势。我们已经投入大量资源，确保在发现新的定价变量或承保策略时能迅速推向市场。而且在客户承保和转化效率上，我们能非常快地看到这些新产品模型带来的正面效益。
放弃低端客户和向高质量客户倾斜的差别非常大。
Tricia Griffith
Yes, I'll add into that with the Robinson a few years ago, we had an internal goal to at some point get a million Robinsons on the book and we're well in excess of that and it just continues to gain momentum.
我还想补充一点，几年前我们内部设定的目标是某一时点实现百万 Robinson 客户在册。现在我们已经远远超过这个目标，并且这个群体还在持续快速增长。
Operator
接线员
Our next question is from Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
下一位提问的是高盛的 Robert Cox，请发言。
Robert Cox
Hey, thanks for taking my question. So I noticed that the percentage of commercial lines premium into the agency channel increased a bit in 2020. And I was wondering how you would characterize the demand you're seeing from small business owners purchasing on a direct basis?
你好，谢谢你回答我的问题。我注意到，2020 年通过代理渠道产生的商业险保费比例有所上升。我想了解一下，你们观察到小企业主通过直销渠道购买保险的需求目前是什么样的？
Tricia Griffith
The direct basis is pretty new. So it's on a lower base. And the history would tell you that the majority of our commercial lines have been through the agency channel. We did see a shift in 2020, based on the fact that a lot of agencies were closed. And with our investment in BQX BusinessQuote is for on the direct side, so we have seen a little bit of a shift, the majority of it is still through agents, some of the products can be complex, and people want to be able to have that guidance and that counseling.
通过直销渠道的业务目前还比较新，基数相对较小。从历史数据来看，我们的大部分商业险业务一直是通过代理渠道完成的。2020年确实出现了一些转变，主要是因为很多代理机构因疫情关闭。同时，我们在 BQX（BusinessQuote Explorer）平台上的投入也支持了直销业务的增长，因此虽然大部分业务仍来自代理渠道，但确实看到了一些向直销渠道转移的迹象。商业险中有些产品比较复杂，很多客户仍然希望得到专业代理的引导和建议。
But we're also innovating and investing for the future to again fulfill our strategic pillar of broad coverage, where, when and how consumers want to shop, including commercial consumer. So while it's still the majority in the agency channel we've invested in and we’ll continue, we believe to see increase in small business BOP GL on the direct side.
不过，我们也在不断创新并投资于未来，目的是实现我们的战略支柱之一——广泛覆盖，也就是无论客户在何时何地、通过何种方式购物，我们都能满足，包括商业客户。因此，虽然目前商业险仍主要通过代理渠道，但我们也在直销渠道加大投入，尤其是在小企业的 BOP（企业主保单）和 GL（普通责任险）方面，并预计这部分的直销业务将持续增长。
Robert Cox
Okay, great. Thank you.
好的，非常感谢。
Tricia Griffith
In my opening remarks, I said we had added BOP in the direct side and that happened in fourth quarter last year.
我在开场发言中提到，我们在直销渠道上线了 BOP 产品，这是在去年第四季度完成的。
Operator
接线员
\[Operator Instructions].
\[操作提示]
Our next question is from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
下一位提问的是来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan，请发言。
Elyse Greenspan
Hi, thanks. My first question, you obviously you guys report monthly results, even look at the policy trends that I know you often say right not to put too much of a focus on one month, but if I look at your policies in-force in December trends were kind of flat and then we saw I'm talking about sequential December versus November, we saw good pickup in January. So I'm just trying to get a sense of like, the underlying trends within both new business and renewals as you think about the impact of the pandemic and not as much thinking in the market, and how we could think about potential policy growth from here? Sorry, I know, that's a kind of a couple part question. Thank you.
你好，谢谢。第一个问题是，你们每月都会披露业绩数据。我知道你们经常强调不要过度解读单月数据，但我注意到你们在保单数量上，12月相较于11月是持平的，而1月则出现了明显增长。我想请教一下，你们怎么看待新单和续保业务的底层趋势？特别是在疫情影响逐渐消退、市场活跃度也有所恢复的背景下，保单增长的前景应该怎么理解？不好意思，问题稍微有点长。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Elyse. I'll talk a little bit about the calendar effects and then go into how we think about growth. And then John, you can add anything you want.
谢谢 Elyse。我先讲讲日历效应，然后再谈我们对增长的看法。John，等下你也可以补充。
So remember, we have a different calendar, we don't go by the Gregorian calendar. In 2019, if you're looking at new apps in particular, it was a 53-week year and quarter four was a 14-week quarter. So when you look at new app growth, year-to-date or I should say in agency, the fourth quarter was down maybe 1% but it was up on the direct side about 3%. If you look at last year, for the quarter, for quarter three, it was down in agency about 4% and up in direct about 8%. These are new apps in particular.
我们采用的是不同于格里高利历的运营日历。比如2019年是一个53周的年份，第4季度实际上是14周。因此如果你看的是“新投保申请数”（new apps），特别是在代理渠道，第4季度同比下降了大约1%；但在直销渠道则增长了约3%。而2020年第3季度，代理渠道下降了约4%，直销渠道则上升了约8%。这些数据是针对新保单而言的。
You've seen our retention statistics, we're very proud of the fact that our retention continues to increase. We also know part of that is because of the moratoriums are non-canceled. So we know a portion of that has to do with the pandemic. But we also believe that both what we're doing on the nature and nurture side will continue to reap benefits on the retention side.
我们的客户留存率持续提升，这是我们非常自豪的事情。当然，我们也知道这部分提升有一部分是由于疫情期间实行的“暂停取消”（moratoriums）政策所致。但我们同时认为，通过“自然增长与主动培育”双轮驱动的战略，也正在为留存率带来长期正面影响。
When I think of growth, we look at obviously PIF growth as our preferred measure because trends are going to change up and down depending on things obviously, the pandemic was dramatic. And we can't, we have to react to our trends. And like I said at the beginning, even though no one took rates up last year, we continued to be able to grow new sales and prospects.
谈到增长，我们最看重的是“在保保单数量”（PIF）的增长。因为市场趋势本身会受很多因素影响，比如疫情就是剧烈变量。尽管去年大家都没有涨价，我们还是能够持续扩大新保单和潜在客户的增长。
How we think about it on the auto side and of course, on both the commercial lines, that I've talked about is we're really going to focus on our four strategic pillars. The first one, our people, our culture, we're going to make sure we have the best work environment ever. People that want to serve our customers, and in turn, they reward us with their loyalty. We're going to focus on our brand. So whether it's mass media, digital, making sure that we send out a message of savings and protection and we continue that this year. I've talked a little bit about competitive prices; we care deeply about costs and taking costs out of the system. So that when people do shop us because they love our brand, we converge. And of course the industry-leading segmentation and I talked about the broad coverage. So we're going to continue to focus on that.
对于车险和商业险业务，我们都坚持围绕四大战略支柱展开工作：第一是员工与文化，确保我们有最好的工作环境，让服务客户的人愿意留下来，客户也因此愿意忠诚于我们；第二是品牌建设，包括传统媒体和数字渠道，持续传递“省钱+保障”的价值主张；第三是价格竞争力，我们非常重视成本控制，致力于优化整个流程，让客户在喜欢我们品牌的基础上也能享受好价格；最后是领先的风险细分能力与广泛覆盖。我们会持续发力这四个方面。
And -- we -- this year is going to be again another year where it's going to be really hard to compare because the odds are the denominator in March and April because there was relatively no shopping is pretty low. With that, might come and I don't know exactly when the timing will hit income tax returns more stimulus payments, and we're ready and able to write those consumers. So there's going to be a lot of change.
今年又将是一个很难同比比较的年份。比如2020年3月和4月，因为疫情基本没人出门购物，导致基数很低。而随着退税季或刺激支票的发放（我们不确定具体时间），也会带来一些新的需求，我们已经做好准备接住这部分客户。因此，变化会很多。
I think what we have to be is well positioned, and nimble as things change. And naturally, what my team and I talked about at time, are we ready for this? And so we'll constantly adjust our rate levels to make sure we're competitive, but also profitable, which is one of our core values. We talked about the different product models that we rollout and some of the other items that we've done, like our Snapshot, Apron and other things to do to make sure our customers are taken care of. I know our CRM organization has something in place right now called more time to pay, where you're really trying to personalize that experience if someone just needs a little bit more time or needs some adjustments on their pay plan, because we know retention is important and we know it's important for our customers.
在各种变化之中，我们要做的是保持敏捷、有备无患。我和团队经常讨论的问题是：我们准备好了吗？所以我们会持续动态地调整价格策略，确保既具竞争力又能实现盈利，这是我们的核心价值之一。比如我们推出了各种产品模型，还包括 Snapshot 和 Apron 项目，目的是确保客户被妥善照顾。我们的 CRM 团队目前也推出了“延长付款期”功能，为客户提供个性化选择，如果有人临时需要更多时间或想调整付款计划，我们可以灵活处理，因为我们知道保留客户对我们和客户本身都非常重要。
Elyse Greenspan
How much on -- of the book has moratoriums are non-canceled on it?
那你们目前在保单中，还有多少比例是受“暂停取消政策”影响的？
Tricia Griffith
How much of the book has moratoriums that are non-canceled?
你是问目前还有多少保单是因为“暂停取消政策”而没有被终止的吗？
John Sauerland
Well most states have lifted the requirement to have moratoriums, I think all states have lifted that, there may be a couple less. But by and large to the extent we're accommodating people who might be behind in payment plans that is our own choice. And it is a fairly small portion of our book at this time.
大多数州已经取消了暂停取消政策，我想可能是全部都取消了，最多也只剩下极个别州还在执行。就目前而言，如果我们还在为某些付款稍有滞后的客户提供宽限，基本上是出于我们自愿的客户服务考虑。这部分保单占比已经相当小。
Elyse Greenspan
Okay, that's helpful. And then my follow-up you guys are looking to make any changes to your reinsurance coverage this year?
好的，这很有帮助。还有一个跟进问题：你们今年打算对再保险覆盖进行哪些调整吗？
Tricia Griffith
I talked about having a new leader in risk and reinsurance. And, partly our property cap program in particular, we were considerate of the minority shareholders in ARX and because upcoming renewal, that's no longer a consideration. So we'll take that in consideration. And as you've noticed, over the years, we've been moving up our retention, we expect our retention in this year's renewal to be at least \$100 million. So I know that's a change that is on the books. Other than that, I know Brandon's working with our reinsurers as we come on our renewals. Do you want to add anything?
我们目前有一位新的风险与再保险负责人，重点关注再保险策略的统一与优化。以前在设计我们的财产险再保计划时，我们会考虑 ARX 的少数股东利益。但由于接下来将进行保单续签，这一限制将不复存在，所以我们可以更自由地做调整。正如你注意到的，我们这几年一直在提高自留额度，今年的目标是将续约时的自留额至少提升至1亿美元，这是一个已经确定的变化。其他方面，Brandon 正在与再保险方磋商后续条款。你要补充吗？
John Sauerland
Yes, if you look in the K, you'll see a deeper description of our reinsurance and we did raise our retention this year on the aggregate as well. So Tricia was referring to our retention on named storm coverage. And we also increased our aggregate retention to \$475 million, up from \$375 million last year, they're also adding to the top of our tower. Some of this is simply because we're growing our total insured value.
可以的，如果你看我们的10-K报告，会看到关于再保险更详细的描述。我们今年也提升了整体再保自留额，Tricia 刚刚说的是针对命名风暴的覆盖。整体来看，我们的总自留额从去年的3.75亿美元提高到了4.75亿美元，同时我们还增加了塔式再保的顶部覆盖。这一方面是因为我们的总保险价值在持续增长。
But we're also as Tricia said, with our new risk and reinsurance leader, getting a little more holistic in terms of our risk appetite, and making some changes upcoming to recognize a little more holistic perspective there. As you might recall, we retained much of the reinsurance program in our property business for years because we had a minority interest there remaining. And their buyout was a function of book value. So there were some interest there in not raising that retention. And obviously at our size and balance sheet, we could raise that and not incur any material risk to our balance sheet.
另外正如 Tricia 所说，随着我们新的风险与再保险负责人的加入，我们也正在从更整体的角度重新评估风险承受能力，并计划进行相应调整。你可能还记得，过去我们在房险业务中之所以保留较多再保覆盖，是因为我们当时还没有完全收购 ARX，而 ARX 的买断基于账面价值，因此我们有动机不去提高自留额。现在，我们的规模和资产负债表已经足够强健，可以在不显著增加风险的前提下提高自留水平。
Doug Constantine
That appears to have been our final question. So that concludes our event. Chris, I'll hand the call back over to you for closing scripts.
看来这就是今天的最后一个问题。我们本次活动到此结束。Chris，请您来做结束发言。
Operator
That concludes The Progressive Corporation's fourth quarter investor event. Information about replay of the events will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for next year. You may now disconnect.
本次 Progressive 公司第四季度投资者电话会议到此结束。相关重播信息将于未来一年内在公司投资者关系网站页面提供。您现在可以断开连接。
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