Doug Constantine

道格·康斯坦丁

Good morning and thank you for joining us today for Progressive’s Second Quarter Investor Event. I am Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations and I will be your moderator for today's event. The company will not make detailed comments related to quarterly results in addition to those provided and its quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders which have been posted to the company's website. This quarter marks the return to our typical format, which is a presentation on a specific portion of our business, followed by a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team.

早上好，感谢大家今天参加 Progressive 的第二季度投资者活动。我是投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine，我将担任今天活动的主持人。除了公司网站上已发布的季度报告（Form 10-Q）和致股东信中提供的信息外，公司不会就季度业绩发表额外的详细评论。本季度标志着我们回归典型的活动形式，即首先对我们业务的特定部分进行演示，然后与我们的领导团队成员进行问答环节。

The introductory comments by our CEO and the presentation were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 90 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions-and-answers with leaders featured in our recorded remarks as well as other members of our management team.

我们首席执行官的开场白和演示文稿是事先录制的。在事先录制的发言结束后，我们将利用本次活动预定 90 分钟的剩余时间，与录制发言中介绍的领导以及我们管理团队的其他成员进行现场问答。

As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available on our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020, as supplemented by our 10-Q report for the first and second quarters of 2021. We will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, Safe Harbor statements related to forward-looking statements, and other discussions of challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website @investors.progressive.com.

与往常一样，本次活动中的讨论可能包含前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，并受到许多风险和不确定性的影响，这些风险和不确定性可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的情况存在重大差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日的年度报告（Form 10-K），以及 2021 年第一和第二季度 10-Q 报告的补充信息。在这些文件中，您将找到关于影响我们业务的风险因素的讨论、与前瞻性陈述相关的安全港声明以及我们面临的其他挑战的讨论。这些文件可以通过我们网站的投资者关系部分找到，网址是 investors.progressive.com。

To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CEO Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments, Trisha.

今天首先，我很高兴介绍我们的首席执行官 Tricia Griffith，她将为我们做开场白。Tricia。

Tricia Griffith

特里西娅·格里菲斯

Let me set the stage for this session. As a reminder, these are construct we call the four cornerstones. This construct allows us to focus and make investments that drive value to the organization and all of our constituents; who we are, which are our five core values. Peter Lewis wrote these back in 1987 and they have served us well over the decades. Specifically during this past year and a half as we've navigated completely foreign waters and have made decisions on behalf of all of our constituents, we have used our core values as a guide.

让我为本次会议定下基调。提醒一下，这是我们称之为“四大基石”的理念框架。这个框架使我们能够集中精力进行投资，为组织及所有利益相关者创造价值；“我们是谁”，即我们的五个核心价值观。Peter Lewis 在 1987 年写下了这些价值观，几十年来它们一直很好地指导着我们。特别是在过去一年半中，当我们应对完全陌生的环境并代表所有利益相关者做出决策时，我们一直以核心价值观为指导。

I won't go into all that we did because I've publicly written about much of it but suffice it to say we believe all along the way, we did the right thing. Why we're here? Our purpose statement, which is true to our name, Progressive. We believe this statement is about forward progress, innovation and never resting on our past performance, where we're headed, our vision, which is to become consumers and agents number one choice and [Technical Difficulty] assurance needs with us now and as those needs evolve.

我不会详述我们所做的一切，因为我已经公开发表了很多相关内容，但可以说，我们始终相信，我们做了正确的事情。“我们为何在此？” 我们的宗旨宣言，这与我们的名字 Progressive（进取）一脉相承。我们相信这个宣言关乎不断进步、创新以及永不满足于过去的表现。“我们的方向”，即我们的愿景，是成为消费者和代理商满足现有及不断变化的 [技术故障] 保险需求的第一选择。

We know that we must earn their trust every day in order to achieve this vision. How we'll get there? Our strategy, and more specifically our four strategic pillars, which is how we think explicitly about investing to ultimately achieve our vision. I'll briefly give you a high-level overview of how we think about each pillar.

我们知道，为了实现这一愿景，我们必须每天赢得他们的信任。“我们将如何实现？” 我们的战略，更具体地说，是我们的四大战略支柱，这是我们为最终实现愿景而进行投资的明确思路。我将简要概述我们对每个支柱的看法。

People and culture, our goal is to ensure our people and culture collectively remain our most powerful source of competitive advantage, including attracting and hiring new talent, retain the people we have and developing everyone. So that we can all have long and prosperous careers. We will support our people and culture by ensuring our people can bring their whole selves to work through our diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. Broad needs, we will meet the broader needs of our customers throughout their lifetimes by being available where, when and how our customers want to interact with us, helping our customers select the best insurance for their current needs, as well as their evolving insurable needs throughout their lifetime.

人才与文化：我们的目标是确保我们的人才和文化共同保持我们最强大的竞争优势来源，包括吸引和招聘新人才、留住现有员工并发展每一位员工，以便我们都能拥有长期而成功的职业生涯。我们将通过多元化、公平和包容的努力，确保员工能够全身心地投入工作，从而支持我们的人才和文化。广泛需求：我们将通过在客户希望与我们互动的时间、地点和方式提供服务，满足客户在其整个生命周期中更广泛的需求，帮助客户选择最适合其当前需求的保险，以及在其一生中不断变化的可保需求。

Leading brand, we will maintain the leading brand recognized for innovative offerings and supported by experiences that instill confidence with messages that resonate. Competitive pricing, we will offer competitive prices by pricing rate to risk through our industry leading segmentation, balancing efficiency and accuracy and claims and finding ways to continually drive costs down through process changes in technology advances.

领先品牌：我们将保持领先品牌地位，以创新产品而闻名，并通过能建立信心、传递引起共鸣信息的体验来支持。有竞争力的定价：我们将通过行业领先的细分，根据风险定价，提供有竞争力的价格；在理赔中平衡效率和准确性；并通过流程变革和技术进步不断寻求降低成本的方法。

Our agenda will be in three sections and we'll cover the commercial auto market and trends in the industry, including our performance relative to the market. We'll do a market overview that will outline our long-term growth plans, and finally an update on market capabilities and expanding our product offering.

我们的议程将分为三个部分：我们将涵盖商用汽车市场和行业趋势，包括我们相对于市场的表现；我们将进行市场概述，阐述我们的长期增长计划；最后，我们将更新市场能力和扩展产品供应的情况。

Before we begin our deep dive commercialize agenda, I do want to acknowledge that we're highly cognizant of the fact that we reported a 100.5 combined ratio for June and are and have been taking steps to ensure profitability as we come out of the pandemic. Commercial lines is a huge opportunity for Progressive. So I don't want to draw attention away from the very important agenda Karen and Jochen Schunter have for you upcoming by offering prepared comments on results. I expect we'll have the opportunity in Q&A to share steps we've taken and are in the process of undertaking to ensure we achieve our calendar year 96 or better underwriting margin objective.

在我们开始深入探讨商业化议程之前，我确实想承认，我们非常清楚我们在 6 月份报告了 100.5 的综合成本率，并且我们正在并已经采取措施，以确保在走出疫情影响时实现盈利。商业险对 Progressive 来说是一个巨大的机遇。因此，我不想通过对业绩发表预先准备好的评论，而分散大家对 Karen 和 Jochen Schunter 即将为您呈现的非常重要议程的注意力。我预计我们将在问答环节有机会分享我们已经采取和正在采取的措施，以确保我们实现日历年度 96 或更优的承保利润率目标。

Let's kick off the first section by talking about the addressable market. When we began these webcasts many years back, we started with showing the property and casualty addressable market and we discussed our plans for both personal lines and commercial lines. Our commercial lines offerings have evolved over time and of course, we recently acquired Protective Insurance. So we thought this was a good time to give you a more detailed update.

让我们从讨论可触达市场开始第一部分。多年前我们开始这些网络直播时，我们首先展示了财产和意外险的可触达市场，并讨论了我们在个人险和商业险方面的计划。我们的商业险产品随着时间的推移不断发展，当然，我们最近收购了 Protective Insurance。因此，我们认为现在是提供更详细更新的好时机。

To summarize the entire market, you'll see in the center of the slide that the total property and casualty market is 730 billion. The Progressive share 5.7% is reflected in both the blue section of the doughnut and the blue percentages. The gray reflects the industry. On the personal line side, we have a 9.6% of the 366 billion market split between personal auto at 12.9% share and homeowners at 1.7% share. We've had massive growth here but still plenty of room to grow.

总结整个市场，您会在幻灯片中央看到，财产和意外险总市场规模为 7300 亿美元。Progressive 的 5.7% 份额在圆环图的蓝色部分和蓝色百分比中都有体现。灰色部分代表整个行业。在个人险方面，我们在 3660 亿美元的市场中占有 9.6% 的份额，其中个人车险占 12.9%，房屋保险占 1.7%。我们在这方面取得了巨大的增长，但仍有很大的增长空间。

The commercial lines addressable market is 364 billion and includes a wide array of opportunities. The commercial auto opportunity alone is a $46 billion market, where we hold the number one position with plenty of room to grow at 12.1% share with a large other commercial addressable market of 318 billion. At this point in time, the market that we believe we can both play and win in is approximately 78 billion. If you start near the top of the circle and go clockwise, that entails monoline commercial auto, small fleet, transportation network companies, commercial auto bundled with GL and BOP, small business with GL and BOP, medium and large fleet with Protective and workers comp with Protective.

商业险的可触达市场规模为 3640 亿美元，包含广泛的机遇。仅商用汽车保险就是一个 460 亿美元的市场，我们以 12.1% 的份额位居第一，仍有很大的增长空间，此外还有一个 3180 亿美元的其他大型商业险可触达市场。目前，我们认为我们能够参与并取胜的市场约为 780 亿美元。如果您从圆圈顶部附近顺时针看，这包括单一险种的商用汽车保险、小型车队、运输网络公司、与普通责任险 (GL) 和企业主保险 (BOP) 捆绑的商用汽车保险、拥有 GL 和 BOP 的小型企业、通过 Protective 提供的中大型车队保险以及通过 Protective 提供的工伤赔偿保险。

The addressable markets that we aren't currently in include public transportation, larger commercial multi-peril businesses with over 20 employees and products like mortgage guarantee and marine just to name a few. We are very excited about the opportunities that lie ahead and that we started investing in many years ago to set us up for future growth.

我们目前尚未涉足的可触达市场包括公共交通、拥有超过 20 名员工的较大型商业多险种业务，以及像抵押担保和水险等产品，仅举几例。我们对未来的机遇感到非常兴奋，并且多年前就开始投资，为未来的增长奠定基础。

We've shared these two-by-two charts a few times. As a reminder, the X axis is the combined ratio on an inverted scale, so you want to be to the right of 100. The Y axis is net written premium growth, so you want to be above the black line showing positive growth. Together, you want to be in the top right hand shaded area where we're growing market share at or below a 96 combined ratio. The blue dot is Progressive, the black dot is the industry and the gray dots are the others in the top 10 each year since 2015 through 2020.

我们已经分享过几次这种二乘二图表。提醒一下，X 轴是反向标度的综合成本率，所以您希望位于 100 的右侧。Y 轴是净承保保费增长率，所以您希望位于显示正增长的黑线上方。总的来说，您希望位于右上角的阴影区域，即我们在综合成本率等于或低于 96 的情况下实现市场份额增长。蓝点是 Progressive，黑点是行业平均水平，灰点是自 2015 年至 2020 年每年排名前 10 的其他公司。

As we reflect in the past six years, we've consistently been in that area, growing market share and achieving at least a 96 combined ratio. In fact, on both profitability and growth, we frequently beat the industry in any individual competitor by wide margins.

回顾过去六年，我们一直稳定地处于那个区域，既实现了市场份额的增长，又达到了至少 96 的综合成本率。事实上，在盈利能力和增长两方面，我们经常以显著优势超越行业平均水平和任何单个竞争对手。

I'd like to get into the meat of their program. But before I do that, I'll give some background on our speakers. I think many of you have met Karen before. Karen Bailo is our Commercial Lines President. She's been with Progressive for over 30 years with her most recent role as General Manager of Acquisition and Small Business Insurance. Karen has held several other significant leadership positions including personal lines GM, commercial lines controller, and most notably, she spent nine years building our agency distribution, organization, and positioned Progressive as a preferred supplier in that channel.

我想进入他们计划的核心内容。但在那之前，我先介绍一下我们的发言人。我想你们中许多人以前见过 Karen。Karen Bailo 是我们的商业险总裁。她在 Progressive 工作了 30 多年，最近担任的职务是收购与小型企业保险总经理。Karen 还担任过其他几个重要的领导职务，包括个人险总经理、商业险财务总监，最值得注意的是，她花了九年时间建立了我们的代理分销组织，并将 Progressive 定位为该渠道的首选供应商。

Karen started her career in customer service as a management trainee and like others on our executive team, she was a claims rep early in her Progressive career. A graduate of the University of South Carolina, Karen earned a bachelor's degree in psychology with a minor in Statistics, and she went on to earn an MBA from Case Western Reserve University.

Karen 的职业生涯始于客户服务部门的管理培训生，和我们执行团队的其他成员一样，她在 Progressive 的早期职业生涯中曾担任理赔代表。Karen 毕业于南卡罗来纳大学，获得了心理学学士学位，辅修统计学，之后又在凯斯西储大学获得了 MBA 学位。

Jochen Schunter began his career in Progressive in 2006, after moving to Cleveland, Ohio from Southern Germany. He's an alumnus of both the University of Dayton where he earned an MBA and of the Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, where he earned bachelor's and master's degree in the arts. After doing rounds in both the accounting and Alice rotational programs at Progressive, Jochen joined commercial lines in 2008. He started out in various pricing and control functions and then moved into product management.

Jochen Schunter 于 2006 年从德国南部搬到俄亥俄州克利夫兰后，开始了他在 Progressive 的职业生涯。他是代顿大学（获得 MBA 学位）和埃尔朗根-纽伦堡大学（获得文学学士和硕士学位）的校友。在 Progressive 完成了会计和 Alice 轮岗项目后，Jochen 于 2008 年加入商业险部门。他最初担任各种定价和控制职能，然后转向产品管理。

First, he managed several states including California and our market entry into Hawaii and then took on big responsibilities as the leader of our truck product. During his tenure, he significantly contributed to increasing our market share by rolling out numerous product enhancements and also improving segmentation. Now as Commercial Line Controller, Jochen leads the organization responsible for ensuring we run a profitable business. This includes strategy and performance monitoring, risk analysis, data and analytics, rate setting compliance and recovery as well as finance and accounting.

首先，他管理了包括加利福尼亚州在内的几个州以及我们进入夏威夷市场的工作，然后作为我们卡车产品线的负责人承担了重大责任。在他任职期间，通过推出众多产品改进和改善细分，他为提高我们的市场份额做出了重大贡献。现在作为商业险财务总监，Jochen 领导着负责确保我们业务盈利的组织。这包括战略和绩效监控、风险分析、数据和分析、费率设定合规性和追偿，以及财务和会计。

I'll now hand it over to Karen to outline our commercial lines trends.

我现在把时间交给 Karen，让她来概述我们的商业险趋势。

Karen Bailo

凯伦·贝洛

We'll be sharing a number of charts and graphs to highlight our business performance during this presentation. While our June results include Protective based on our closing date of June 1. For the purposes of this presentation unless otherwise stated, the numbers exclude Protective.

在本次演示中，我们将分享一些图表和图形来重点展示我们的业务表现。虽然我们 6 月份的业绩包含了 Protective（基于 6 月 1 日的交割日期），但除非另有说明，本次演示中的数字不包括 Protective。

I'd like to begin with a look at our performance relative to the industry. This is a 20-year time series of Progressive commercial auto net written premium growth rate versus the rest of the industry. During this time period, our results have really diverged from the industry. There are a couple of observations around growth that I'd like to highlight. First, commercial auto has some cyclicality to it and tends to move with the larger economy. And second, when the market grows Progressive has historically grown at a faster pace.

我想首先看看我们相对于行业的表现。这是一张展示过去 20 年 Progressive 商用汽车净承保保费增长率与行业其他公司对比的时间序列图。在此期间，我们的业绩确实与行业有所不同。关于增长，我想强调几点观察。首先，商用汽车保险具有一定的周期性，并且往往与宏观经济同步波动。其次，当市场增长时，Progressive 历史上的增长速度通常更快。

In fact, since 2016, we've doubled the business and gained almost four points of market share. And that equates to more than 20% compounded growth rate and achieving more than 12% market share. The more significant divergence from the market has been an underwriting profit. We've outperformed the industry by 8 to 10 and as much as 20 points over those 20 years.

Our objective is to grow as fast as we can at target combined ratios. And we've had a track record of success and outperformed the industry on both growth and profit over those 20 years. There's a number of contributing factors. But perhaps most important has been the intense focus on commercial auto as a core line of business for the company. We've shared this information in the past and wanted to provide a brief refresher on how we approach our auto business. We segment our business into what we refer to as business market targets and we introduced these business market targets for commercial auto in 2014.

我们的目标是在目标综合成本率下尽可能快地增长。在这 20 年里，我们拥有成功的记录，并在增长和利润两方面都超越了行业。这其中有许多促成因素。但也许最重要的是公司将商用汽车保险作为核心业务线的重点关注。我们过去分享过这些信息，现在想简单回顾一下我们如何处理汽车保险业务。我们将业务细分为我们所说的“业务市场目标”(Business Market Targets, BMT)，并在 2014 年为商用汽车保险引入了这些业务市场目标。

Since introduced by BMTs are now operationalized across virtually every aspect of our business. That's important because we see meaningful and actionable differences between these BMTs. For example, the demand function is different by BMT and how that demand function responds to changes in different economic conditions is different.

自引入以来，BMT 现已在我们业务的几乎所有方面实现了操作化。这很重要，因为我们看到这些 BMT 之间存在有意义且可操作的差异。例如，不同 BMT 的需求函数不同，并且该需求函数对不同经济状况变化的反应也不同。

We also see that losses present differently and how they develop, attorney representation rates and litigation outcomes differ by BMT. Certainly frequency and severity trends and other factors change at different rates and at different times by BMT, all of which are critical inputs to determining rate level. This granular focus allows us to develop insights faster, be more responsive with strategies and tactics to profitably grab market share.

我们还看到，不同 BMT 的损失呈现方式及其发展过程、律师代理率和诉讼结果都不同。当然，不同 BMT 的出险频率和损失程度趋势以及其他因素会以不同的速度和在不同的时间发生变化，所有这些都是确定费率水平的关键输入。这种精细化的关注使我们能够更快地获得洞察，更迅速地制定战略和策略，以盈利的方式抢占市场份额。

I want to talk about what we're observing in shopping, loss trends and how we're positioned for continued success. We have the benefit of over 10 billion miles of driving data with our telematics data. This chart shows patterns in driving miles highway congestion and highway speeding pre- and post-pandemic. You can see that as stay at home orders were issued, there was a significant decrease in miles driven and congestion on the highway.

我想谈谈我们在投保比价、损失趋势方面观察到的情况，以及我们如何为持续成功做好准备。我们拥有超过 100 亿英里的远程信息处理驾驶数据，这使我们受益匪浅。这张图表显示了疫情前后驾驶里程、高速公路拥堵和高速公路超速的模式。您可以看到，随着居家令的发布，驾驶里程和高速公路拥堵显著减少。

At the same time, there was an increase in highway speeding. Now while the impact from COVID on small businesses was severe, when we look at our business class level data, it's also clear that different businesses were affected differently. For example, in the truck space, fully a third of our smart haul customers saw their mileage increase, while about 8% were shut down completely. Landscapers and most construction trades were still working and other service businesses were not.

与此同时，高速公路超速现象有所增加。现在，虽然新冠疫情对小型企业的影响是严重的，但当我们查看我们的业务类别层级数据时，很明显不同的业务受到的影响是不同的。例如，在卡车领域，我们 Smart Haul 客户中整整有三分之一的里程增加了，而约有 8% 则完全停业。园艺工和大多数建筑行业仍在工作，而其他服务性企业则没有。

Looking at more recent trends, while we see mileage and congestion back to pre-COVID levels, speeding events haven't dropped back to where they were. This raises the question around whether COVID brought a permanent change to truckers driving habits and it's something we'll keep a close eye on in the months to come.

看看最近的趋势，虽然我们看到里程和拥堵已恢复到疫情前的水平，但超速事件并未回落到原来的水平。这就提出了一个问题：新冠疫情是否给卡车司机的驾驶习惯带来了永久性的改变？这是我们未来几个月将密切关注的事情。

In addition to our own data, we look to other macro economic trends to develop a deeper understanding of shopping and small business trends, especially during challenging economic conditions. This chart shows our insurance shopping trends in this case, agency quote growth, for businesses that tie to goods and services sectors index to 2019. Progressive quote data is in the solid line and consumer spend data is in the dotted line. Our experience tracks closely to the rate of consumer spending on goods and services. So this is data we have and we'll continue to monitor.

除了我们自己的数据，我们还关注其他宏观经济趋势，以更深入地了解投保比价和小企业趋势，尤其是在充满挑战的经济条件下。这张图表显示了我们的保险投保比价趋势（在此案例中是代理报价增长），针对的是与商品和服务行业相关的企业，以 2019 年为基准指数。Progressive 的报价数据用实线表示，消费者支出数据用虚线表示。我们的经验与消费者在商品和服务上的支出率密切相关。所以这是我们拥有的数据，并将继续监测。

The macroeconomic data shows spending on goods recovered more quickly, while the services sector has lagged and has been more depressed relative to good sectors. Some of that is because services sectors were more affected by stay at home orders and good spending has been supported by federal government stimulus. That intuitively makes sense and we see that in our underlying data.

宏观经济数据显示，商品支出恢复得更快，而服务业则相对滞后，并且相对于商品行业更为低迷。部分原因是服务业受居家令的影响更大，而商品支出得到了联邦政府刺激措施的支持。这在直觉上是合理的，我们在我们的基础数据中也看到了这一点。

Businesses that were considered more essential, plumbing or sanitation services are those that tied to the transportation of goods, like agriculture, hauling or livestock hauling responded differently versus those that are tied to services industries, like airport shuttles, food trucks and entertainers. The positive news is that as the service businesses reopen, we're seeing a recovery in spending toward 2019 levels. This increase in spending on services should drive a rebound in insurance shopping for businesses related to that sector. Again, food trucks, restaurant delivery airport shuttles just to name a few.

那些被认为更必要的业务，如管道或卫生服务，或者与货物运输相关的业务，如农业运输、货物运输或牲畜运输，其反应与那些与服务业相关的业务（如机场班车、食品卡车和演艺人员）不同。好消息是，随着服务业重新开放，我们看到支出正在向 2019 年的水平恢复。服务支出的增加应该会推动与该行业相关的企业（再次提及，如食品卡车、餐厅送餐、机场班车等，仅举几例）的保险投保比价反弹。

In summary, different businesses have been affected differently. And this is important in terms of how we think about trends, the implications for frequency and severity and ultimately rate level going forward.

总而言之，不同的业务受到了不同的影响。这对于我们如何看待趋势、对出险频率和损失程度的影响以及最终未来的费率水平都很重要。

In our last update in 2019, we shared a historical perspective that provides a good illustration of how we will approach today's environment. Back in 2016, we saw a marked increase in frequency between May and November, at the same time, some prior year reserve development was contributing to an already positive severity trend. We responded quickly to address those trends raising rates by more than 10% and made a series of underwriting changes in about three months. And we've continued with a series of changes and adjustments since. Fast forward to recent trends, you can clearly see the impact of COVID on frequency. We saw a sharp decline in frequency as stay at home orders went into effect. And as I shared earlier, driving miles from our usage-based insurance data shows driving miles and congestion levels are back to pre-pandemic levels. And the services sectors are also rebounding.

在我们 2019 年的上次更新中，我们分享了一个历史视角，它很好地说明了我们将如何应对当前的环境。回到 2016 年，我们看到 5 月至 11 月期间出险频率显著增加，与此同时，一些往年准备金的发展也加剧了本已存在的正向损失程度趋势。我们迅速做出反应以应对这些趋势，将费率提高了 10% 以上，并在大约三个月内进行了一系列承保变更。此后我们持续进行了一系列变更和调整。快进到最近的趋势，您可以清楚地看到新冠疫情对出险频率的影响。随着居家令生效，我们看到出险频率急剧下降。正如我之前分享的，我们基于使用情况的保险数据显示，驾驶里程和拥堵水平已恢复到疫情前的水平。服务业也在反弹。

Given all of those conditions, we're seeing loss frequency rising relative to COVID lows when frequency fell dramatically. And at the same time, we continue to see a steady increase in severity trends that we've been accounting for in our rate level indications.

鉴于所有这些情况，相对于出险频率急剧下降的新冠疫情低点，我们看到损失频率正在上升。与此同时，我们继续看到损失程度趋势稳步上升，我们已经在费率水平指标中考虑了这一点。

Given the variation and how businesses were affected by the pandemic, some slowing down and other seeing an increase in business. We have been and plan to continue to be cautious in our actions. We haven't lowered rates and we've been conservative in our pricing and underwriting decisions. The trends we're observing now are lining up with what's forecasted in our rate level indications. We've planned for frequency recovery and a continued steep severity trend and have kept pace with net trends with a combined rate increase of 29% from the beginning of 2016 through the first half of this year.

考虑到疫情对不同业务影响的差异，一些业务放缓，另一些业务则出现增长。我们一直并将继续在行动中保持谨慎。我们没有降低费率，并且在定价和承保决策方面一直保持保守。我们现在观察到的趋势与我们费率水平指标中的预测相符。我们已经为出险频率的恢复和持续陡峭的损失程度趋势做好了计划，并通过从 2016 年初到今年上半年的合计 29% 的费率增长，跟上了净趋势的步伐。

The additional segmentation we've built into the product over the last five years has proven effective and driven better than industry underwriting results and growth. And I would suggest having a granular approach to the business and reacting decisively to what we see while much of the market is slower to react has been an important part of maintaining strong underwriting margins and growing the business over the years. So we continue to advance our product segmentation and underwriting capabilities and we plan to continue to respond appropriately to loss trends going forward.

我们在过去五年中为产品构建的额外细分已被证明是有效的，并带来了优于行业的承保业绩和增长。而且我认为，对业务采取精细化的方法，并在市场反应迟缓时对我们观察到的情况做出果断反应，这一直是多年来保持强劲承保利润率和业务增长的重要组成部分。因此，我们将继续推进我们的产品细分和承保能力，并计划继续对未来的损失趋势做出适当的反应。

I'd like to shift to a discussion on expenses and efficiency.

我想转而讨论费用和效率。

Now we know from experience that companies that can achieve a lower cost structure gained share at a greater rate than the overall industry. We've seen that in the personal lines market and believe it matters in the commercial lines market as well. The correlation of efficiency aiding and growth isn't lost on us and we're well positioned on this chart. Now 2020 results show that we're nearly 11 points lower than the industry average in LAE and expense ratio. In a very price sensitive industry that 11 point advantage is significant. But there's a balance. We don't necessarily want to be the lowest because we believe in also investing in what matters, quality outcomes for customers that earn loyalty and investments that foster great work environments for our employees.

现在我们从经验中得知，能够实现更低成本结构的公司比整个行业能以更快的速度获得市场份额。我们在个人险市场看到了这一点，并相信这在商业险市场同样重要。效率促进增长的相关性我们并未忽视，我们在这张图表上处于有利位置。现在，2020 年的结果显示，我们在赔付调整费用 (LAE) 和费用率方面比行业平均水平低近 11 个百分点。在一个价格非常敏感的行业，这 11 个百分点的优势是显著的。但这需要平衡。我们不一定想成为最低的，因为我们相信也要投资于重要的事情：为客户提供赢得忠诚度的优质结果，以及为员工营造良好工作环境的投资。

To that end, I'd like to highlight where we're making investments to improve on both those fronts. This is a view of our expense ratio track record over a 10-year time period. And over that time period, we've seen a 7 to 8-point expense advantage compared to the industry. That advantage was 6 points in 2020 due in part because COVID credits flowed through expenses rather than premium, resulting in a slight elevated expense ratio.

为此，我想重点介绍我们在哪些方面进行投资以改善这两个方面。这是我们过去 10 年费用率记录的视图。在此期间，我们看到与行业相比，我们有 7 到 8 个百分点的费用优势。2020 年这一优势为 6 个百分点，部分原因是新冠疫情相关的返还额度通过费用而非保费体现，导致费用率略有上升。

While we've had an expense advantage over this time period, we're prioritizing initiatives to extend our leadership position. There are a number of levers that drive expense ratio advantages and while we don't have enough time for a comprehensive review of all the efforts underway, I wanted to share with you two examples that demonstrate active cost management efforts to drive expense reductions and improve experiences at the same time. These both highlight our focus in managing expenses related to our growth and improving our operational efficiency.

虽然我们在这段时间内一直保持费用优势，但我们正在优先考虑采取措施来扩大我们的领先地位。有许多杠杆可以驱动费用率优势，虽然我们没有足够的时间全面回顾所有正在进行的努力，但我想与大家分享两个例子，它们展示了我们积极的成本管理努力，旨在同时降低费用和改善体验。这两个例子都突显了我们在管理与增长相关的费用和提高运营效率方面的重点。

We maintain a disciplined focus on managing overhead and growth in headcount as we grow the business. This chart is designed to represent a few things. The solid blue line represents overall net earned premium growth. The solid orange line represents employee costs and real estate costs are represented in the solid black line. You can see that while employee costs and real estate costs have gone up, they've grown at a lower rate relative to net earned premium. And there are a couple of reasons for that.

随着业务的增长，我们始终保持着对管理管理费用和员工人数增长的严格关注。这张图表旨在说明几件事。蓝色实线代表整体净已赚保费增长。橙色实线代表员工成本，黑色实线代表房地产成本。您可以看到，虽然员工成本和房地产成本有所上升，但相对于净已赚保费，它们的增长速度较低。这有几个原因。

One is being disciplined and judicious in decisions to increase staff. We've added the dotted lines here to represent volume driven and non-volume driven employee growth. And while we've grown, our volume driven counts in line with our net earned premium pace, we've been very targeted in adding non-volume driven resources and our non-volume driven employee count has grown at a much lower rate. This discipline has resulted in growing our total employee costs, the orange line less than net earned premium growth.

一是在增加员工的决策上保持纪律性和审慎性。我们在这里添加了虚线来代表业务量驱动和非业务量驱动的员工增长。虽然我们的业务量驱动员工数量随着净已赚保费的步伐增长，但我们在增加非业务量驱动资源方面非常有针对性，我们的非业务量驱动员工数量的增长速度要慢得多。这种纪律性使得我们的总员工成本（橙色线）的增长低于净已赚保费的增长。

The second is related to real estate, like personal lines prior to the pandemic, our customer and agent services organization enabled real estate expense savings by implementing a home-based consultant model. This model has a number of benefits. It provides broader access to talent and improved our ability to increase staff to support our growing business, especially last year and it's also provided flexibility that employees value.

第二个与房地产有关，就像疫情前的个人险一样，我们的客户和代理服务组织通过实施居家顾问模式节省了房地产费用。这种模式有许多好处。它提供了更广泛的人才渠道，提高了我们增加员工以支持不断增长的业务的能力，尤其是在去年，并且它还提供了员工所看重的灵活性。

In addition, this model allows us to grow our business without a commensurate growth in space. In 2019, almost 40% of our commercial lines agents and customer services consultants were working from home. Now we're still working through our plans as we transition back to the office post-pandemic. We expect the portion of our customer and agent services consultants that work from home to grow materially as people make the decision to remain working from home going forward. This will support our ability to grow without significantly growing our real estate footprint.

此外，这种模式使我们能够在不相应增加办公空间的情况下发展业务。2019 年，我们近 40% 的商业险代理和客户服务顾问在家工作。现在，随着我们疫情后过渡回办公室，我们仍在制定计划。我们预计，随着人们决定未来继续在家工作，我们的客户和代理服务顾问中在家工作的比例将大幅增长。这将支持我们在不显著增加房地产占用的情况下实现增长的能力。

The second example of our cost management efforts highlights investments in systems and technology to deliver the products and services our agents and customers value, while focusing on increasing operational efficiency. We've been investing significantly in systems to support our core auto business and in expanding our business with our BOP product and direct small business capabilities. Despite significant investments in technology and systems, we've been able to maintain our expense advantage.

我们成本管理努力的第二个例子是重点投资于系统和技术，以提供我们的代理和客户所看重的产品和服务，同时专注于提高运营效率。我们一直在大力投资于系统，以支持我们的核心汽车业务，并通过我们的企业主保险 (BOP) 产品和直接面向小企业的能力来扩展我们的业务。尽管在技术和系统方面进行了大量投资，我们仍能够保持我们的费用优势。

Now we acknowledge and expected this relatively short-term increase in technology costs to lower our costs in the long run with gains and efficiency and new lines of business.

现在，我们承认并预期这种相对短期的技术成本增加，从长远来看，将通过效率提升和新业务线的收益来降低我们的成本。

Now improving efficiency to push our expense advantage is a key objective. Two examples of progress are shown here. We've shared in previous annual report commentary that we're transitioning to a new policy administration system. And this new system is a significant driver of our technology expenses and rolling out the new system is a big part of our ability to drive more efficiency. The new system introduces more modern functionality that enables faster delivery of our products and enhancements and the ability to improve customer experiences and self-service capabilities. The initial launch of this new system in a state brings consumer online buy capabilities. The chart on the left shows the total lift in direct online sales yield with our new system.

现在，提高效率以扩大我们的费用优势是一个关键目标。这里展示了两个进展的例子。我们在之前的年度报告评论中分享过，我们正在过渡到一个新的保单管理系统。这个新系统是我们技术费用的一个重要驱动因素，而推广这个新系统是我们提高效率能力的重要组成部分。新系统引入了更现代化的功能，能够更快地交付我们的产品和增强功能，并有能力改善客户体验和自助服务能力。这个新系统在一个州的首次推出带来了消费者在线购买能力。左边的图表显示了我们新系统带来的直接在线销售收益率的总体提升。

Now completely isolating the effects of the online buy capabilities is difficult but we're seeing an 80% improvement in online sales yield after introducing this new system. And that would translate to more than a 20% increase in direct auto sales.

现在，完全分离在线购买能力的影响是困难的，但我们看到在引入这个新系统后，在线销售收益率提高了 80%。这将转化为超过 20% 的直接汽车销售增长。

Now, while direct is still a relatively small portion of our business, we expect this added functionality to bring long-term economic benefit to us in terms of improved sales yield and lower acquisition costs for that part of our business and that's very important as this business grows.

现在，虽然直接业务仍然是我们业务中相对较小的一部分，但我们预计这项新增功能将在改善销售收益率和降低该部分业务的获客成本方面为我们带来长期的经济利益，随着这项业务的增长，这一点非常重要。

A second way we're gaining efficiency is via process automations. On the right is a representation of improvements that we've already made reducing the manual work associated with millions of documents we receive every year via fax, email or paper mail. Until recently, each document had to be manually reviewed and categorized for action either to be attached to a policy and sent directly to storage or put in queue for additional processing.

我们提高效率的第二种方式是通过流程自动化。右边展示了我们已经取得的改进，减少了每年通过传真、电子邮件或纸质邮件收到的数百万份文件相关的人工工作量。直到最近，每份文件都必须经过人工审核和分类以采取行动，要么附加到保单上直接发送到存储库，要么放入队列等待进一步处理。

Over half of these documents are in that first group. They don't require any action beyond archival. We have a project underway to automate that workflow by the end of the year using optical character recognition technology to review those documents automatically and attach them to a policy and send them to storage without human intervention and this reset resources to focus on other more value-added work.

这些文件中超过一半属于第一类。它们除了存档之外不需要任何操作。我们有一个项目正在进行中，计划在年底前利用光学字符识别 (OCR) 技术自动化该工作流程，自动审核这些文件，将它们附加到保单并发送到存储库，无需人工干预，这将重新分配资源以专注于其他更具附加值的工作。

These are just two examples to illustrate how we will focus future investments. Now while we're pleased with our early progress, we're just getting started. And we have a robust roadmap ahead of us that will target more efficiency improvements and self-service capabilities designed to meet customer and agents expectations. Investments in product, experiences and more efficient workflows combined should enable us to reduce the drivers of costs to service our customers. We anticipate that by lowering our costs, we will be able to further extend our expense advantage and position as well for any market conditions.

这只是两个例子，用来说明我们将如何聚焦未来的投资。现在，虽然我们对早期进展感到满意，但我们才刚刚开始。我们面前有一个稳健的路线图，将致力于实现更多效率改进和自助服务能力，旨在满足客户和代理的期望。对产品、体验和更高效工作流程的综合投资应该能够使我们减少服务客户的成本驱动因素。我们预计，通过降低成本，我们将能够进一步扩大我们的费用优势，并为任何市场状况做好准备。

Now moving on to the other part of our expense advantage. We believe our claims organization provides us with a significant competitive advantage on commercial auto vis-à-vis our competition. We've doubled the core auto business while maintaining very competitive loss adjustment expense ratios and good quality.

现在转向我们费用优势的另一部分。我们相信，与竞争对手相比，我们的理赔组织在商用汽车保险方面为我们提供了显著的竞争优势。我们的核心汽车业务翻了一番，同时保持了非常有竞争力的赔付调整费用率和良好的质量。

Our claims advantage comes from a surgical focus on claims accuracy and efficiency. And back in 2019, we shared how our claims organization leverages the scale of our broader personal lines claims organization with a focus on specialization for high impact and complex claims. We continue to push commercialized specialization as we grow our business. And we also see significant potential in leveraging technology and analytics to increase productivity and claims handling segmentation along with improving accuracy.

我们的理赔优势来自于对理赔准确性和效率的精准关注。早在 2019 年，我们就分享了我们的理赔组织如何利用我们更广泛的个人险理赔组织的规模，并专注于高影响和复杂理赔的专业化处理。随着我们业务的增长，我们继续推动商业化的专业分工。我们还看到在利用技术和分析来提高生产力、理赔处理细分以及提高准确性方面存在巨大潜力。

I wanted to share a brief example to illustrate how we're leveraging data, data science and advanced analytics to monitor and react to claims activity and exposure changes.

我想分享一个简短的例子，说明我们如何利用数据、数据科学和高级分析来监控和应对理赔活动和风险敞口的变化。

The image on this slide represents a homegrown tool developed to inform leaders of claims that need review. The tool is powered by a file intervention program that uses analysis and data science to populate the tool and is designed to improve leaders focus on at risk files. This helps improve claims accuracy through better coaching and supports timely claim handling efforts. We know handling delays can result in unfavorable outcomes and the alerts are prioritized and trigger on the best date for the leader to intervene for the most favorable results.

这张幻灯片上的图片展示了一个内部开发的工具，用于告知领导哪些理赔案件需要审核。该工具由一个文件干预程序驱动，该程序使用分析和数据科学来填充工具内容，旨在提高领导对有风险案件的关注度。这有助于通过更好的指导来提高理赔准确性，并支持及时的理赔处理工作。我们知道处理延迟可能导致不利结果，这些警报会按优先级排序，并在领导介入以获得最有利结果的最佳日期触发。

In this example, you see a code FS13 with a description potential for delayed total loss resolution. In this example, an alert triggered on March 19, with a message indicating a potential delay in resolving a total loss settlement. The leader intervenes by providing guidance to the claim rep on the open activity on the file. And since the leader intervened, the trigger is programmed to return two days later to make sure the claim rep is following up on the guidance provided. The next alert triggers on March 21. The leader reviews the file and sees that the claim rep followed up on the direction provided so no additional intervention is needed at this point in time.

在这个例子中，您看到一个代码 FS13，描述为“可能延迟全损理赔解决”。在这个例子中，3 月 19 日触发了一个警报，消息指示在解决全损赔付方面可能存在延迟。领导通过就案件中的未决活动向理赔代表提供指导来进行干预。由于领导进行了干预，触发器被编程为两天后再次返回，以确保理赔代表正在跟进所提供的指导。下一个警报在 3 月 21 日触发。领导审核了案件，看到理赔代表已按照指示跟进，因此此时不需要额外干预。

The leader indicates no to the intervention question in the lower left and once no intervention is selected and alert is programmed to return eight days later if the total loss is still not resolved. In this case, the total loss resolved on March 25. And so the alert didn't return for the third time. This is a powerful tool that helps our claims teams efficiently run the business of claims and contributes to more timely and accurate claims handling.

领导在左下角的干预问题上选择“否”，一旦选择了“否”，如果全损问题仍未解决，警报将被编程为八天后再次返回。在这种情况下，全损问题于 3 月 25 日解决。因此警报没有第三次返回。这是一个强大的工具，可以帮助我们的理赔团队高效地运营理赔业务，并有助于更及时、更准确的理赔处理。

A final point on our performance relative to the industry is related to reserving where our philosophy is to be as accurate as possible with minimal variation. This chart shows our commercial auto reserved development versus the industry. We have a much tighter variance and we see two primary reasons for this.

关于我们相对于行业的表现的最后一点与准备金计提有关，我们的理念是尽可能准确，并将差异降至最低。这张图表显示了我们的商用汽车保险准备金发展与行业的对比。我们的差异要小得多，我们认为这主要有两个原因。

One contributing factor is the claims organization we just talked about. Leveraging technology and advanced analytics to increase productivity and get the right claims to the right resource more quickly leads to more timely and accurate claims handling and better outcomes. The other contributing factor is the highly segmented approach we take to loss reserving for commercial auto as we do with our other products. We've operationalized that BMT structure, in addition to the usual loss cost cuts and it allows us to see pattern changes sooner and react appropriately. Having more consistent and predictable loss cost estimates through accurate reserving, lets us understand our true ultimate cost faster and be more responsive with pricing and product refinements.

一个促成因素是我们刚才讨论的理赔组织。利用技术和高级分析来提高生产力，并将合适的理赔案件更快地分配给合适的资源，从而实现更及时、更准确的理赔处理和更好的结果。另一个促成因素是我们对商用汽车保险损失准备金采用的高度细分方法，就像我们对其他产品所做的那样。除了通常的损失成本削减之外，我们已经将 BMT 结构投入运营，这使我们能够更快地发现模式变化并做出适当反应。通过准确的准备金计提获得更一致和可预测的损失成本估算，使我们能够更快地了解我们的真实最终成本，并在定价和产品改进方面做出更快的响应。

So that's a little background on what we've been seeing in our commercial auto results recently and why we've been able to produce some different outcomes relative to the industry. I'd now like to turn it over to Jochen Schunter who will share a little about our plans for extending our leadership in commercial auto, including how and where protective insurance fits into those plans.

这就是我们最近在商用汽车保险业绩中看到的一些情况的背景，以及为什么我们能够取得一些相对于行业不同的结果。现在我想把时间交给 Jochen Schunter，他将分享一些关于我们扩大商用汽车保险领域领导地位的计划，包括 Protective Insurance 如何以及在何处融入这些计划。

Jochen Schunter

约亨·舒特

Thank you, Karen.

谢谢你，凯伦。

I'd like to spend some time talking about our track record of extending our commercial auto leadership position and investments that we continue to make.

我想花一些时间谈谈我们在扩大商用汽车保险领导地位方面的过往记录以及我们持续进行的投资。

Let me start by talking a little bit about our two telematics programs that we have in market today. Smart Haul and Snapshot ProView. We're proud to say that we have recently surpassed $500 million of commercial auto premium in force from these telematics based programs and that we've analyzed over 10 billion miles of data. Smart Haul is our truck focused telematics program that leverages the data from federally mandated electronic logging devices or ELD for short, through the federal mandate most over the road truckers need an ELD to managed hours of service. Smart Haul uses driving data from a trucker's existing ELD in exchange for a discount on the insurance of up to 18%.

让我先谈谈我们目前市场上的两个车载信息系统项目：Smart Haul 和 Snapshot ProView。我们很自豪地说，我们基于这些车载信息系统项目的有效商用汽车保费最近已超过 5 亿美元，并且我们已经分析了超过 100 亿英里的数据。Smart Haul 是我们专注于卡车的车载信息系统项目，它利用联邦强制规定的电子记录设备（简称 ELD）的数据。根据联邦强制规定，大多数长途卡车司机需要使用 ELD 来管理服务时间。Smart Haul 使用卡车司机现有 ELD 的驾驶数据，以换取高达 18% 的保险折扣。

And while conversion is nearly double our normal truck conversion, we continue to see a sizable loss ratio advantage for this book even after applying those steep discounts, which average about $1500 per policy. It's clear this is good business and it's all incremental and verifiable segmentation that we're able to apply at point-of-sale. To demonstrate how powerful the segmentation has proven to be, I'd like to draw your attention to the chart on the left.

虽然转化率几乎是我们正常卡车业务转化率的两倍，但即使在应用了这些平均每份保单约 1500 美元的大幅折扣后，我们仍然看到这部分业务存在可观的赔付率优势。很明显，这是一项好业务，而且这完全是我们在销售点能够应用的增量且可验证的细分。为了展示这种细分已被证明是多么强大，我想请大家注意左边的图表。

Telematics is the most predictive variable in our for-hire transportation segment. The depicted bar includes the power of new variables enabled by telematics in addition to variables that can be derived from telematics, such as territory ozone. As you can see, telematics is by far our most predictive rating variable, and we have plans to further evolve the model by adding even more predictiveness to it. Our continued research of driving data is allowing us to constantly evolve and improve the model.

车载信息系统是我们商业运输细分市场中最具预测性的变量。图中所示的条形图包含了车载信息系统所带来的新变量的力量，以及可以从车载信息系统中衍生的变量（例如区域臭氧）。正如您所见，车载信息系统是迄今为止我们最具预测性的评级变量，我们计划通过增加更多预测性来进一步发展该模型。我们对驾驶数据的持续研究使我们能够不断发展和改进模型。

Switching over to our other telematics program, Snapshot ProView. We have a program that provides discounts and complimentary fleet management features to our non ELD customers. While this program is much younger, we already see the segmentation power of telematics, especially in segments where driving patterns vary significantly from risk-to-risk.

转向我们的另一个车载信息系统项目，Snapshot ProView。我们有一个项目，为我们的非 ELD 客户提供折扣和免费的车队管理功能。虽然这个项目还很年轻，但我们已经看到了车载信息系统的细分能力，特别是在不同风险之间驾驶模式差异显著的细分市场中。

The chart on the slide shows an average drive time for select business classes and a variance around that average. Let's pick the restaurant business class as an example, we have insureds that used a vehicle close to five hours a day, likely to deliver food. At the same time, we have restaurants that used our vehicle less than one hour a day, you can imagine lost cost may look very different for those two used cases. That's just one example how telematics data can help us create new segmentation as we create new insights from the 10 billion miles of collected data.

幻灯片上的图表显示了选定业务类别的平均驾驶时间以及围绕该平均值的方差。让我们以餐饮业务类别为例，我们有被保险人每天使用车辆接近五个小时，很可能是为了送餐。同时，我们也有餐厅每天使用我们的车辆不到一小时，您可以想象这两种使用情况的损失成本可能看起来非常不同。这只是一个例子，说明当我们从收集到的 100 亿英里数据中获得新见解时，车载信息系统数据如何帮助我们创建新的细分。

Next, I'd like to highlight some of the most significant milestones we've been able to achieve in commercial auto over the years that we're especially proud of. First, in 2008, we became the largest writer of truck insurance in the United States. In 2015, we became the number one writer of commercial auto overall. In 2019, we became the number one writer of preferred truck in the non-fleet space, I'll talk more about that in a minute. And lastly, this year we passed $6 billion in net written premium making us more than two times the size of our next closest competitor based on trailing 12-month statutory data.

As mentioned on the prior slide, we've made big strides in growing our preferred truck book enabling us to become the number one writer of non-fleet preferred truck in 2019. We define preferred truck as motor carriers that have a track record of being financially responsible with three or more years in business and a strong safety record.

正如在上一张幻灯片中提到的，我们在增长优选卡车业务方面取得了巨大进展，使我们能够在 2019 年成为非车队优选卡车的第一大承保商。我们将优选卡车定义为具有财务负责记录、经营三年或以上且安全记录良好的汽车运输公司。

Based on our analysis, we grew our estimated share of non-fleet preferred truck from 5.9% in January of 2016 to 15.4% in May of 2021. On a direct written premium basis that reflects an annual growth rate of 29.5% over that same five-year time period.

根据我们的分析，我们将非车队优选卡车的估计市场份额从 2016 年 1 月的 5.9% 增长到 2021 年 5 月的 15.4%。以直接承保保费计算，这反映了在同一五年时间段内 29.5% 的年增长率。

We did so by launching product enhancements that improved our competitiveness, while hitting our annual calendar year profit targets each of those yields. Those investments have helped us improve consideration amongst the most preferred trackers shopping for insurance. In fact, of all the non-fleet preferred motor carriers that require our federal filing that switched insurance carriers in 2021 without a lapse in coverage, we got quoted on 48.2% of them. That number is up from 35.3% in Q1 of 2016. With this success, we continue to pursue a robust roadmap to enhance our product and coverage offerings, along with improved segmentation, allowing us to offer even lower rates for the best service.

我们通过推出提高竞争力的产品增强功能来实现这一目标，同时在每个收益年度都达到了我们的年度日历年利润目标。这些投资帮助我们提高了在寻求保险的最优选卡车司机中的青睐度。事实上，在所有需要我们进行联邦备案、在 2021 年更换保险公司且没有保险中断的非车队优选汽车运输公司中，我们为其中 48.2% 提供了报价。这个数字高于 2016 年第一季度的 35.3%。凭借这一成功，我们继续推行稳健的路线图，以增强我们的产品和保险范围，同时改进细分，使我们能够为最好的服务提供更低的费率。

Another exciting opportunity to grow our business across all BMTs is targeted at businesses with 10 to 40 vehicles. The small fleet market is about a $7 billion market, where we have low penetration and only began increasing our focus on and investing in over the last couple of years.

在所有 BMT（业务市场目标）中发展我们业务的另一个令人兴奋的机会是针对拥有 10 到 40 辆车的企业。小型车队市场是一个约 70 亿美元的市场，我们在其中的渗透率较低，并且在过去几年才开始加大关注和投资。

As we increased our focus, we saw opportunities to improve our pricing and add fleet specific segmentation to provide more competitive rates to the best fleet risks. In addition, we expanded our underwriting team to support new underwriting capabilities, ensure appropriate pricing and accelerate the underwriting process. Today, we have the segmentation, assets and capabilities to compete effectively in this attractive market.

随着我们加大关注力度，我们看到了改进定价和增加车队特定细分的机会，以便为最佳车队风险提供更具竞争力的费率。此外，我们扩大了核保团队，以支持新的核保能力，确保适当的定价并加速核保流程。如今，我们拥有在这个有吸引力的市场中有效竞争所需的细分、资产和能力。

As you can see, on the left chart, we've been able to more than triple our fleet book over the last five years with a meaningful acceleration in the last year. The right funnel chart shows the impact of improvements we've been able to elevate just in the last year driving that growth. While we've been able to increase quotes by 19% in the trailing 12 months, we've been able to increase find the book quotes by 85% and ultimately sales by 92%.

正如您在左图中所看到的，在过去五年中，我们的车队业务规模增长了两倍多，并且在去年出现了显著的加速增长。右侧的漏斗图显示了我们仅在去年就能够提升的改进所带来的影响，从而推动了这一增长。虽然在过去 12 个月中，我们的报价量增加了 19%，但我们能够将可成交报价量增加 85%，最终销售额增加了 92%。

Let me cover some of the specific improvements that have allowed us to achieve those results. First, we brought and continued to bring automation and technology to the quoting process helping us to increase efficiency. Specifically, we've automated the review of the supplemental application intake of this data into our database, underwriting review processes and related agent follow-up. We've also been able to improve the quote turnaround time by simplifying the quote process and leveraging our distribution organization to educate agents which in turn is driving agent engagement, more completed quotes and increased conversion.

让我介绍一些使我们能够取得这些成果的具体改进。首先，我们将自动化和技术引入并持续应用于报价流程，帮助我们提高效率。具体来说，我们已经自动化了补充申请的审核、将这些数据录入我们的数据库、核保审核流程以及相关的代理人跟进工作。我们还通过简化报价流程和利用我们的分销组织来培训代理人，从而缩短了报价周转时间，这反过来又提高了代理人的参与度、完成了更多报价并提高了转化率。

With our continued investments, we believe we're well positioned to continue our growth into small fleet space. Talking about investments in small fleet that's a great transition to highlight our plans to move even further upstream in the fleet markets. That's where our recent acquisition of Protective insurance fits in.

凭借我们持续的投资，我们相信我们已做好充分准备，继续在小型车队领域实现增长。谈到对小型车队的投资，这是一个很好的过渡，可以突出我们计划在车队市场进一步向上游发展的计划。这就是我们最近收购 Protective Insurance 的契合点。

Before we get to talking about how Protective will help us grow fleets, let's spend a few minutes and talk about Protective, the products Protective offers and customers they serve.

在我们开始讨论 Protective 将如何帮助我们发展车队业务之前，让我们花几分钟时间谈谈 Protective 公司、它提供的产品以及它服务的客户。

Let's start with some background, Protective insurance is located in Carmel, Indiana, employing about 500 people. The company has nearly 100 years of experience of providing innovative insurance solutions primarily for the fleet trucking operations. Protective operates several statutory insurance companies which are collectively licensed in all 50 states. While Protective will benefit from Progressive strong balance sheet and financial strength. Progressive will benefit from many of Protective's unique capabilities, allowing it to successfully serve the fleet market.

让我们从一些背景信息开始。Protective Insurance 位于印第安纳州的卡梅尔市，拥有约 500 名员工。该公司在为车队货运业务提供创新保险解决方案方面拥有近 100 年的经验。Protective 运营着多家法定保险公司，这些公司共同在美国所有 50 个州获得许可。Protective 将受益于 Progressive 强大的资产负债表和财务实力，而 Progressive 也将受益于 Protective 的许多独特能力，使其能够成功服务于车队市场。

Let's talk about some of those capabilities and the Protective product suite.

让我们谈谈其中的一些能力以及 Protective 的产品组合。

Protective sales many of the lines we're very familiar with, including commercial auto physical damage, commercial auto liability, non-trucking liability, cargo and general liability. In addition and very critical to fleets coverage needs, Protective office workers comp and occupational accident to coverages that are very additive to Progressive suffering. In fact, workers comp reflects the largest statutory commercial coverage in terms of premium, even bigger than commercial auto. As mentioned on the prior slide, this is done through a variety of statutory entities and distribution channels.

Protective 销售许多我们非常熟悉的险种，包括商用汽车物理损坏险、商用汽车责任险、非货运责任险、货物险和一般责任险。此外，对于车队保障需求至关重要的一点是，Protective 提供工人赔偿保险（workers comp）和职业意外险，这些险种对 Progressive 的产品组合是非常有益的补充。事实上，就保费而言，工人赔偿保险是最大的法定商业险种，甚至超过了商用汽车保险。如前一张幻灯片所述，这是通过各种法定实体和分销渠道实现的。

Next, let's cover what customers protect themselves. While we just talked about Progressive's number one position in truck overhaul, it's important to note that we've achieved that position primarily by dominating the less than 10 vehicle space. Only recently have we begun investing into our fleet product, becoming competitive for fleets of up to 40 total vehicles inclusive of trails. We're early in that journey and while we've hit some major milestones and seen some encouraging growth, we realize that they are needed capabilities we would have to build to effectively compete for medium and large fleets. Protective delivers those capabilities allowing us to move upstream. Those include sophisticated risk retention mechanisms, allowing fleets to participate in the risk and indemnity, safety and loss control programs along with underwriting expertise, and lastly rating by mileage and revenue.

接下来，让我们谈谈 Protective 的客户。虽然我们刚才谈到 Progressive 在整体卡车保险领域的领先地位，但需要指出的是，我们主要是通过主导少于 10 辆车的细分市场来实现这一地位的。直到最近，我们才开始投资于我们的车队产品，使其在最多 40 辆车（包括挂车）的车队中具有竞争力。我们仍处于这一征程的早期阶段，虽然我们已经取得了一些重要的里程碑并看到了令人鼓舞的增长，但我们认识到，要有效竞争中型和大型车队市场，我们还需要建立一些必要的能力。Protective 提供了这些能力，使我们能够向上游发展。这些能力包括复杂的风险自留机制，允许车队参与风险和赔偿；安全和损失控制计划以及核保专业知识；最后是按里程和收入进行评级。

Independent contractors in the FedEx affinity program are amongst many of Protective's other customers engaged in the rapidly growing last mile delivery space, a sector we expect to continue to expand over the coming years.

参与 FedEx 亲和力计划的独立承包商是 Protective 众多客户中的一部分，他们活跃在快速增长的“最后一英里”配送领域，我们预计该领域在未来几年将继续扩张。

Switching to profitability, Protective has had a long track record of generating excellent results meeting their respective profit targets over decades. Similarly to Progressive in doing so they were able to outperform the commercial auto industry consistently. While the last few years have been challenged from a profitability perspective, we strongly believe that the right actions have been taken to return to those industry leading combined ratios. Specifically Protective has refocused on its core business which is transportation insurance.

转向盈利能力方面，Protective 拥有数十年来实现卓越业绩、达到各自利润目标的悠久记录。与 Progressive 类似，他们也一直能够持续跑赢商用汽车保险行业。虽然过去几年在盈利能力方面面临挑战，但我们坚信已经采取了正确的行动来恢复到行业领先的综合成本率。具体而言，Protective 已重新聚焦于其核心业务，即运输保险。

In addition, significant rate was taken to account for the industry steep severity trends. We believe this focus on core products and retake already proving to be successful with the last few quarters showing constant improvement of underwriting results.

此外，为了应对行业严峻的赔付额度上升趋势，公司采取了大幅度的费率调整。我们相信，这种对核心产品的关注和费率调整已经被证明是成功的，最近几个季度的核保结果持续改善。

In addition, Protective has reinsurance in place to protect from significant adverse development from prior accident years. Those reinsurance treaties ensure that retains severities and tails are consistent with Progressive's established risk appetite.

此外，Protective 拥有再保险安排，以防范过往事故年度的重大不利发展。这些再保险合同确保其自留的赔付额度和风险尾部与 Progressive 既定的风险偏好保持一致。

Finally, I'd like to talk about how Protective is additive to Progressive's product offering and allows us to expand our addressable market. Clearly, while we're both heavily focused on the commercial auto line, we do so with minimal overlap. Progressive is the market leader in the small transportation space. While Protective is a leader in the medium and large transportation fleet space. Together, we're able to serve that market in its entirety and with Protective's workers comp capabilities, we're able to establish a foothold into that critical coverage. The coverage that is considered an anchor product in the small, medium and large fleet space. We look forward to further complementing each other's product offering enabling both entities to grow market share collectively.

最后，我想谈谈 Protective 如何补充 Progressive 的产品供应，并使我们能够扩大我们的目标市场。显然，虽然我们都高度关注商用汽车保险业务线，但我们的业务重叠极小。Progressive 是小型运输领域的市场领导者，而 Protective 是中型和大型运输车队领域的领导者。携手合作，我们能够全面服务于该市场，并且凭借 Protective 的工人赔偿保险能力，我们能够在这个关键的保险领域站稳脚跟。该险种被认为是小型、中型和大型车队领域的支柱产品。我们期待进一步互补彼此的产品供应，使双方能够共同增长市场份额。

Lastly, while we're still early in this acquisition, we look forward to what we call preserve and learn for the remainder of the year. Before focusing on further integrating all commercial offerings under the Progressive commercial lines umbrella. I'd like to take this opportunity to highlight that we intend to maintain the Carmel, Indiana operation. This acquisition has always been about growing addressable markets, and therefore revenue collectively beyond what each of us would be able to achieve individually.

最后，虽然我们仍处于此次收购的早期阶段，但我们期待在今年余下的时间里进行我们称之为“保留和学习”的阶段，之后再专注于将所有商业产品进一步整合到 Progressive 商险业务旗下。我想借此机会强调，我们打算保留印第安纳州卡梅尔市的运营。此次收购始终旨在扩大目标市场，从而共同增加收入，超越我们各自单独所能达到的水平。

With that, I'd like to go back to a slide Tricia shared earlier. This slide shows our addressable market, which has grown to $78 billion with this acquisition, which reflects an increase of more than 25%. And with that, I will turn it back over to Karen who will cover our investments in the Small Business Insurance space.

说到这里，我想回到 Tricia 早些时候分享的一张幻灯片。这张幻灯片显示了我们的目标市场，通过这次收购，该市场已增长到 780 亿美元，增幅超过 25%。接下来，我将把时间交还给凯伦，她将介绍我们在小企业保险领域的投资。

Karen Bailo

凯伦·贝洛

Efforts to meet the broader needs of small business owners are focused on building products and capabilities to support our agency business and to meet the growing demand in the direct channel. We believe customer choice is important and our goal is to continue to work toward customers having options for how they shop for insurance with us. Our plans include both adding products we develop ourselves, as well as offering other carrier products in our in-house agency.

旨在满足小企业主更广泛需求的努力，重点在于构建产品和能力，以支持我们的代理业务，并满足直销渠道日益增长的需求。我们相信客户选择非常重要，我们的目标是继续努力，让客户在向我们购买保险时拥有多种选择。我们的计划包括增加我们自己开发的产品，以及在我们内部代理机构中提供其他保险公司的产品。

In our experience, developing products ourselves works best in our agency business and we will continue to focus on investments that enable us to continue to grow and succeed with our agents. We're pursuing a different strategy for consumers that come to us directly.

根据我们的经验，自主开发产品在我们的代理业务中效果最佳，我们将继续专注于投资，使我们能够与代理人一起持续增长和成功。对于直接找到我们的消费者，我们正在采取不同的策略。

In addition to developing our own products, we're offering other carrier products through our in-house agency. That approach is working well for us and it will remain a part of our strategy for that part of our business. In the end, expanding our product offering is all about having a broad enough product portfolio that agents and customers never have to look elsewhere for their insurance needs.

除了开发我们自己的产品外，我们还通过内部代理机构提供其他保险公司的产品。这种方法对我们来说效果很好，它将继续是我们这部分业务战略的一部分。最终，扩展我们的产品供应就是为了拥有足够广泛的产品组合，使代理人和客户永远不必去别处寻找他们的保险需求。

In 2019, we expanded our product offering with our own business owners policy and general liability product. This line of business opens up our addressable market with a product that fits with our customer set and creates an opportunity to extend relationships with our customers. Similar to commercial auto, our goal is to have a streamlined intuitive quote flow and competitive pricing derived from expense discipline and price segmentation.

2019 年，我们通过推出自己的企业主综合保险（BOP）和一般责任险产品，扩展了我们的产品供应。这条业务线通过一款适合我们客户群的产品，打开了我们的目标市场，并创造了扩展客户关系的机会。与商用汽车保险类似，我们的目标是拥有简化直观的报价流程和源于费用控制及价格细分的有竞争力的定价。

We initially limited our appetite to the first five categories in this table, they are big enough to matter, allow us to develop pricing and segmentation skills and allow for a straightforward streamlined quoting and binding process. We've since added a sixth BMT lessors risk. We've limited our appetite in this category to those commercial rental properties that meet our underwriting criteria in the other five. The six categories depicted on this screen account for about half of the 31 million small businesses in the U.S. with fewer than 20 employees.

我们最初将承保范围限定在此表中的前五个类别，它们规模足够大，能让我们发展定价和细分技能，并允许采用直接简化的报价和承保流程。此后，我们增加了第六个 BMT（业务市场目标）——出租人风险。我们将此类别中的承保范围限定为那些符合我们其他五个类别承保标准的商业租赁物业。此屏幕上显示的六个类别约占美国 3100 万家员工少于 20 人的小企业的一半。

As we did last year with lessors risk, we will continue to expand the categories over time as we gain experience and identify additional opportunities to automate the quoting and underwriting flow. Today, this business is in the agency channel and agents continue to add real value in small business insurance. We chose to deploy our BOP product in the agency channel first and have designed the products systems and experience to succeed with agents. At the same time, we kept an eye on requirements for the digital channel. And last year introduced our product in our in-house agency and our online quoting platform for small business owners.

正如我们去年在出租人风险方面所做的那样，随着我们积累经验并发现更多自动化报价和核保流程的机会，我们将继续逐步扩展这些类别。目前，这项业务通过代理渠道进行，代理人在小企业保险领域持续增加真正的价值。我们选择首先在代理渠道部署我们的 BOP 产品，并设计了产品、系统和体验，以便与代理人共同成功。同时，我们也关注了数字渠道的要求。去年，我们在内部代理机构和面向小企业主的在线报价平台上推出了我们的产品。

We officially launched our product in May of 2019 and finished the year with four states. Last year, all things considered, we finished strong launching 13 new states and introduced an updated product model. And building on the momentum from 2020, we launched four additional states through the end of the second quarter and four more in July. So we're now in states representing just over 50% of the commercial multi-peril market. And we expect to roll out another nine to 10 states this year and that would result in a state footprint that represents about 67% of the commercial multi-peril market. Feedback we've received from our agents supports our assessment that we have an easy to use quoting and underwriting experience and competitive products. We're happy with our momentum and we'll continue to look for opportunities to accelerate our progress where we can continue to grow profitably.

我们于 2019 年 5 月正式推出产品，并在年底覆盖了四个州。去年，综合考虑各种因素，我们表现强劲，新推出了 13 个州，并引入了更新的产品模型。并且，在 2020 年势头的基础上，我们在第二季度末之前又推出了四个州，并在 7 月份再推出了四个州。因此，我们现在覆盖的州代表了超过 50% 的商业多险种市场。我们预计今年将再推出 9 到 10 个州，这将使我们的州覆盖范围达到商业多险种市场的约 67%。我们从代理人那里收到的反馈支持了我们的评估，即我们拥有易于使用的报价和核保体验以及具有竞争力的产品。我们对目前的势头感到满意，并将继续寻找机会，在能够持续盈利增长的领域加快我们的进展。

I mentioned earlier that we're pursuing a different strategy for consumers that come to us directly. We built an in-house agency to sell other carrier products and we're having terrific success and growing our direct to small commercial business. In September of 2018, we introduced Business Quote Explorer, which is our online quoting platform for small business owners. With that edition, consumers have a full range of options for how to shop for their small business insurance with us.

我之前提到，对于直接找到我们的消费者，我们正在采取不同的策略。我们建立了一个内部代理机构来销售其他保险公司的产品，并且在发展直接面向小型商业客户的业务方面取得了巨大成功。2018 年 9 月，我们推出了 Business Quote Explorer，这是我们为小企业主提供的在线报价平台。有了这个版本，消费者在向我们购买小企业保险时拥有了全面的选择。

Going forward we will work to optimize the experience in both of these paths. There will be times when the self-directed online path is the best option for a customer and others when calling in for phone support will be the best option. We're happy with this approach as a strategy to meet the demand from consumers who are coming to us directly for their small business insurance needs.

未来，我们将努力优化这两种途径的体验。有时，自主在线途径是客户的最佳选择，而另一些时候，致电寻求电话支持将是最佳选择。我们对这种策略感到满意，它能满足直接向我们寻求小企业保险需求的消费者的需求。

Our small business direct efforts are going well. We've been selling direct to commercial insurance for more than a decade and have made investments in assets and capabilities to meet the growing demand from commercial prospects as well as our own customers. Now pandemic-related shopping patterns do appear to be accelerating the move to online shopping in commercial insurance and we're well positioned for that move.

我们的小企业直销业务进展顺利。我们从事商业保险直销已有十多年，并已投资于资产和能力，以满足商业潜在客户以及我们现有客户日益增长的需求。目前，与疫情相关的购物模式似乎正在加速商业保险向在线购物的转变，我们已为这一转变做好了充分准备。

Our marketing efforts are maturing and generating demand and we have a good stable of carriers including our own manufactured BOP and GL product and we've got an easy-to-use quoting platform. As a result of our investments and an increase in online shopping growth has accelerated considerably. And with the investments we're making to drive demand and then meet that demand with ample supply and great experiences, we have every confidence in our ability to continue to accelerate growth within the small business direct channel.

我们的营销工作日趋成熟并正在产生需求，我们拥有一批稳定的合作保险公司，包括我们自己开发的 BOP 和 GL 产品，并且我们拥有一个易于使用的报价平台。由于我们的投资以及在线购物的增加，增长已显著加速。凭借我们为推动需求、并通过充足的供应和卓越的体验来满足该需求所做的投资，我们对在小企业直销渠道内继续加速增长的能力充满信心。

Now the ultimate goal is to extend relationships with our customers and provide more reasons to stay. We know customers who have more products with us retain longer. When looking at our business auto and contractor commercial auto customers with multiple products, we see that those with another personal lines product stay with us 5% to 7% longer and those with a BOP product stay about 11% longer.

现在的最终目标是扩展与客户的关系，并提供更多让他们留下来的理由。我们知道，拥有我们更多产品的客户留存时间更长。在考察拥有多种产品的商业汽车和承包商商业汽车客户时，我们发现，那些同时拥有另一项个人险产品的客户与我们合作的时间要长 5% 到 7%，而那些拥有 BOP 产品的客户则要长约 11%。

Now we expect policy life expectancy to further extend with more targeted efforts to grow our multi-product customers. Beyond launching new products like our BOP and GL product, we're also working to make it easier to bundle more with us. Our aspirations include making it easier to purchase multiple products across commercial lines and personal lines that new business and to add products as insurance needs grow.

现在，我们预计通过更有针对性地努力发展我们的多产品客户，保单的生命周期将进一步延长。除了推出像我们的 BOP 和 GL 产品这样的新产品外，我们还在努力让客户更容易地与我们捆绑更多产品。我们的愿景包括让新业务更容易地跨商业险和个人险购买多种产品，并在保险需求增长时增加产品。

You've heard us describe our aspirations of relationships with our customers lasting for decades or longer. We're making significant progress and expect over time our commercial relationships will contribute to increasing the number of customers that have chosen to stay with Progressive for a decade or longer. This is all part of our broader vision to become consumers and agents, number one choice and destination for auto, home and other insurance. And we're excited to have considerable under penetrated addressable market in front of us, where we have the people, skills and assets to succeed.

您已经听我们描述过我们与客户建立持续数十年甚至更长时间关系的愿景。我们正在取得重大进展，并预计随着时间的推移，我们的商业关系将有助于增加选择与 Progressive 合作十年或更长时间的客户数量。这都是我们更宏伟愿景的一部分，即成为消费者和代理人在汽车、家庭和其他保险方面的首选和目的地。我们很高兴面前有一个渗透率尚低但潜力巨大的目标市场，我们拥有成功所需的人才、技能和资产。

Thanks for your time today. And now we'll move on to the Q&A portion of our session.

感谢您今天的时间。现在我们将进入会议的问答环节。

Doug Constantine

This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions including Karen Bailo and Jochen Schunter who can answer questions about our commercial lines presentation. The Q&A session will be audio only. To submit a question or online audience can use the Ask a Question tab located at the top right of the webcast, phone participants can press star one on your keypad. In order to get as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. We will now take our first question from the phone.

道格·康斯坦丁 (Doug Constantine)

今天活动的预录部分到此结束。现在，我们的管理团队成员将现场回答问题，包括可以回答有关我们商业险演示文稿问题的 Karen Bailo 和 Jochen Schunter。问答环节将只有音频。提交问题，在线观众可以使用网络直播右上角的“提问”(Ask a Question) 选项卡，电话参与者可以按键盘上的星号键加 1。为了尽可能多地回答问题，请将您的问题限制在一个问题和一个后续问题。我们现在接听来自电话的第一个问题。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator

接线员

Our first question coming from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我们的第一个问题来自富国银行 (Wells Fargo) 的 Elyse Greenspan。

Elyse Greenspan

艾莉丝·格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)

My first question. I believe there's been some regulatory pushback, in some states including Nevada, Texas and Ohio to some rates that you guys have filed for. So how does Progressive respond to the situations where you're not getting the rates that you need?

我的第一个问题。我相信在一些州，包括内华达州、德克萨斯州和俄亥俄州，对你们申请的某些费率存在一些监管阻力。那么，当 Progressive 无法获得所需费率时，你们如何应对这种情况？

Tricia Griffith

Thanks, Elyse. This is Tricia. We respond with data. So we have data that is showing on steep trends and severity and our need to get rates on the street. And we provide that and try to work with our regulators to get those push through. In the long run, we want to make sure we're available for consumers. And we can only be available if we're able to reach our objective of growing as fast as we can. But more importantly, at a 96 combined ratio or less. So we continue to work with regulators, we've had some good success in Texas, as you mentioned, every state has little nuances. But we're going to continue to work side-by-side to do the right things for our collective consumers and customers.

谢谢，Elyse。我是 Tricia。我们用数据来回应。我们有数据显示赔付严重性的急剧上升趋势，以及我们需要将费率推向市场的必要性。我们提供这些数据，并努力与监管机构合作，以推动这些费率获得批准。从长远来看，我们希望确保我们能为消费者提供服务。只有当我们能够实现尽可能快增长的目标时，我们才能提供服务。但更重要的是，要达到 96% 或更低的综合成本率。因此，我们继续与监管机构合作，正如你提到的，我们在德克萨斯州取得了一些不错的进展，每个州都有细微的差别。但我们将继续并肩努力，为我们共同的消费者和客户做正确的事情。

Elyse Greenspan

And then, in the presentation that we just heard, I believe you guys were talking about, seeing speeding at higher levels and not going back to like pre-pandemic levels. I don't know is specific to commercial auto. But it sounds like that's perhaps something we're seeing within commercial and personal auto. So do you think that this is a new normal? Because if there's higher levels of speeding, right, and there could be much more severe accidents? And do you think some of the higher severity trends within both commercial and personal auto are perhaps here to stay even after we fully come out of the pandemic?

另外，在我们刚才听到的演示文稿中，我相信你们谈到，看到超速现象处于较高水平，并且没有回到疫情前的水平。我不知道这是否特定于商用汽车保险。但听起来这似乎是我们在商用和个人汽车保险中都看到的现象。那么，您认为这是一种新常态吗？因为如果超速水平更高，对吧，就可能发生更严重的事故？您是否认为，即使在我们完全走出疫情之后，商用和个人汽车保险中一些较高的赔付严重性趋势也可能会持续存在？

Tricia Griffith

That's a great question. On the commercial side, we're seeing both congestion and speeding up, on the personal line side, we still haven't seen commuting congestion back to pre-pandemic. I think we're just going to have to watch that. I think we thought we were sort of coming out of the pandemic and now of course, with some of the new local ordinances, will that change, will people stay home and work from home longer? We imagine that might happen. So that could continue to have speeding at a higher rate. I think miles traveled as well. When you think about, we opened up, people were excited to get on the road, go on vacations with their family, go see grandma and grandpa, but you're right on the severity of accidents. And we're just going to have to watch that trend and see what happens when we get to some normalcy post-pandemic on commuting and congestion as well as speeding.

这是个好问题。在商用险方面，我们看到拥堵和超速都在增加；在个人险方面，我们仍然没有看到通勤拥堵恢复到疫情前的水平。我想我们只能继续观察。我想我们曾以为我们正在走出疫情，但现在当然，随着一些新的地方法规出台，情况会改变吗？人们会更长时间地待在家里工作吗？我们设想这可能会发生。所以这可能导致超速现象继续保持在较高水平。我认为行驶里程也是如此。当你想到，我们解封了，人们很兴奋能上路，和家人一起去度假，去看望祖父母，但你关于事故严重性的看法是对的。我们只需要观察这一趋势，看看当我们在通勤、拥堵以及超速方面恢复到疫情后的某种常态时会发生什么。

Elyse Greenspan

And then one last one, in terms of like you mentioned, you haven't seen, drive to work miles fully go back. If you were going to look at your book between the non-standard and the standard on the personal auto side. Have you seen on the drive to work miles perhaps pick up more of the non-standard side with maybe there's less work from home flexibility?

最后一个问题，关于您提到的，通勤里程尚未完全恢复。如果您看一下个人车险业务中的非标准和标准业务。您是否看到通勤里程在非标准业务方面回升更多，也许是因为这部分人群居家办公的灵活性较低？

Tricia Griffith

Yes. When we look at our UBI miles, we sort of compare it to some occupations that would be more available to work from home. And that wouldn't and so we do see differences in those as well as even age groups in terms of, if I'm retired and I'm able to stay home. So we watch those closely as well. But remember, we price all of our customers to a lifetime 96 and that's what we work towards.

是的。当我们查看我们的 UBI（基于使用的保险）里程时，我们会将其与一些更容易居家办公的职业进行比较。以及那些不那么容易居家办公的职业，所以我们确实在这些方面看到了差异，甚至在年龄组方面也是如此，比如，如果我退休了，我能够待在家里。所以我们也在密切关注这些。但请记住，我们为所有客户定价的目标是终身 96% 的综合成本率，这也是我们努力的方向。

Operator

接线员

And our second question coming from the line of Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley.

我们的第二个问题来自摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的 Michael Phillips。

Michael Phillips

Follow up question to the first question that you just answered. Tricia, you said that you respond with data, higher level question that. I guess the regulatory question is, what's the question is, is it tougher to push for rates today than a normal environment? And what I mean by that is, I think there's a pretty clear contrast today, unlike in other periods where the experience period you use to do your rate filings is pretty profitable, unlike the projection period where there's clearly some deterioration and not only deterioration, but questions on how long that deterioration might last is the severity, short lived, is frequency short lived as well. So some questions around that against the backdrop of a pretty profitable experience period that you're using for your rate. So does that backdrop make it harder to push for rate volumes than normally would?

这是对您刚才回答的第一个问题的后续提问。Tricia，您说你们用数据回应，这是一个更高层面的问题。我想监管方面的问题是，现在推动费率上涨是否比正常环境下更困难？我的意思是，我认为今天存在一个非常明显的对比，不像其他时期，你们用来进行费率备案的经验期是相当盈利的，而预测期则明显出现了一些恶化，不仅是恶化，还有关于这种恶化可能持续多久的问题，赔付严重性的上升是短暂的吗？赔付频率的上升也是短暂的吗？因此，在你们用于定价的经验期相当盈利的背景下，存在一些这样的问题。那么，这种背景是否使得推动费率上涨比通常情况下更困难？

Tricia Griffith

I think it is more of a challenge, but remember, we aren't looking in the rearview mirror, we're looking ahead and looking at the severity of trends, because we price for those, in the future. So while it's been a challenge, in some venues, we continue to work towards that, and again, we'll watch it closely. And just like we did during the pandemic, after we gave the over billion dollars back on the private passenger auto side, for the credits, we looked across, because we knew that, consumers were struggling, there was layoffs et cetera. We looked across states and channels and products and took rates down a little bit. And so that's really the conversation we're having with regulators. We're going to always try to do the right thing to grow as fast as we can but we have to make our target profit margins. And what we're seeing now is some pretty steep severity trends. And again, we'll watch for that we'll watch for any macroeconomic inflationary trends and the like to understand what our future rate should be.

我认为这确实更具挑战性，但请记住，我们不是向后看，而是向前看，关注赔付严重性的趋势，因为我们是为未来定价。因此，尽管在某些地方遇到了挑战，我们仍在继续努力，并且，我们会密切关注。就像我们在疫情期间所做的那样，在我们在私家车保险方面返还了超过十亿美元的信用额度之后，我们进行了全面审视，因为我们知道消费者正在挣扎，出现了裁员等等。我们审视了各个州、渠道和产品，并稍微降低了费率。所以这正是我们与监管机构进行的对话。我们将始终努力做正确的事情，以尽可能快地增长，但我们必须达到我们的目标利润率。我们现在看到的是一些相当严峻的赔付严重性趋势。再次强调，我们将关注这一点，我们将关注任何宏观经济通胀趋势等，以了解我们未来的费率应该是多少。

Michael Phillips

Okay, thank you. Second question kind of goes towards whether the personal auto margin deterioration is -- are there certain pockets where it's worse than others. And what I mean, there is you mentioned in the Q a couple things that might make one think so, reduce marketing spend in certain areas. Number one, number two, tightening the underwriting criteria for certain consumer segments, those two things combined, make you think that maybe there's certain pockets that it's worse. And I guess, is that true? Or is it more just certainly across the board because of what's happening with driving levels going back to normal levels?

好的，谢谢。第二个问题是关于个人车险利润率恶化是否在某些领域比其他领域更严重。我的意思是，您在问答中提到了几点可能让人这么想，一是在某些领域减少营销支出。二是收紧某些消费者群体的承保标准，这两点结合起来，让人觉得可能在某些领域情况更糟。我想问，这是真的吗？还是说，这更普遍地是由于驾驶水平恢复到正常水平而导致的全面现象？

Tricia Griffith

Yes. It's really the margin erosion is really across the board in terms of frequency trends, getting closer to pre-pandemic, severity trends up whether it's injury or used parts. And then, of course, our average written premium was down. When we look at media, when we talk about that we look at our less efficient media. So it's not necessarily based on a certain customer, we look across the board and say, okay, this is our, our cost per sale, et cetera. And here's, what we believe we can get for that.

是的。利润率的侵蚀确实是全面性的，体现在赔付频率趋势接近疫情前水平，赔付严重性趋势上升，无论是人伤还是二手零件。然后，当然，我们的平均承保保费下降了。当我们审视媒体支出时，我们谈论的是我们效率较低的媒体。所以这不一定是基于某个特定的客户群体，我们是全面审视并说，好的，这是我们的销售成本等等。以及我们认为可以从中获得的回报。

On the other side, we really tried to avoid what we believe could be under priced risks. And so we developed an underwriting program many, many years ago, just to ask a few more questions to understand how to appropriately rate each of our customers to the appropriate risks. So a little bit different viewpoint from when we look at media and we look at bringing on risks that we believe are underpriced.

另一方面，我们确实试图避免我们认为可能定价过低的风险。因此，我们在很多年前就制定了一个承保计划，只是多问几个问题，以了解如何根据适当的风险为每位客户进行恰当的定价。所以这与我们审视媒体支出和承接我们认为定价过低的风险时的观点略有不同。

Doug Constantine

I just tag on that to say, in markets where we're struggling to get right back to the previous question, we're more likely to push harder on the underwriting levers. So in markets where profitability has struggled recently, and we've yet to be able to raise price, you'll see the underwriting levers tighter than in a market where we're more confident about profitability.

我只想补充一点，回到之前的问题，在那些我们难以获得批准费率的市场，我们更倾向于加大承保控制的力度。因此，在那些近期盈利能力挣扎且我们尚未能提高价格的市场，你会看到承保控制比那些我们对盈利能力更有信心的市场更严格。

Operator

接线员

And our next question coming from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore.

我们的下一个问题来自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。

David Motemaden

Just another question just on the rate filings and just wondering if you could share, what you're contemplating for future frequency and severity from second quarter levels? You assume that those continue to get much worse or at the same levels? Or, is it going to take some time before you get more actual experience and more results that you can include in the filings before you get data to justify the rate changes?

只是关于费率备案的另一个问题，想知道您是否可以分享一下，您对第二季度水平之后的未来赔付频率和严重性有何预期？您是假设这些会继续变得更糟，还是保持在相同水平？或者，是否需要一些时间，在您获得更多实际经验和更多结果，可以纳入备案文件以证明费率变更的合理性之前？

Tricia Griffith

Well, I mean, I think the fact that we're going to continue to take rates up means that we expect some future positive trend. It will be tough to say so we'll watch it and our belief is that long-term trends from a frequency perspective, we believe that there's a chance that could go up to pre-pandemic levels, but if you look at over the last 50 or 60 years, frequency trends have gone down based on safer cars and more strict laws, et cetera. Severity has more than offset that, whether it's injury, attorney reps or components of vehicles and we believe that can continue. We hope that it abates a little bit. But, if you look forward a couple of years, we would hope that they would have be more normalized, so we could have that sense of normalcy. Now, it's been -- there's the comparisons are often also difficult but we watch those closely. And we believe that, as of now, obviously, we talked about the rate filings that we have done in quarter two that will continue to be fairly aggressive with rates.

嗯，我的意思是，我认为我们将继续提高费率这一事实意味着我们预计未来成本会出现一些上升趋势。这很难说，所以我们会观察，我们的信念是，从赔付频率的角度来看，长期趋势有可能回到疫情前的水平，但如果你看过去 50 或 60 年，由于汽车更安全、法律更严格等原因，赔付频率趋势一直在下降。但赔付严重性的上升已经超过了频率下降的影响，无论是人伤、律师代理还是车辆部件，我们相信这种情况可能会持续下去。我们希望它能有所缓和。但是，如果展望未来几年，我们希望它们能更加正常化，这样我们就能有那种正常的感觉。现在，情况一直如此——比较通常也很困难，但我们会密切关注。我们相信，就目前而言，很明显，我们谈到了我们在第二季度所做的费率备案，我们将继续在费率方面采取相当积极的态度。

David Motemaden

Got it. Thanks. And just thinking about, I think you said you were looking at 5% rate increases location specific in the second quarter. Is that of the amount you think you need to take across the entire book. If I look at it, I think last costs versus '19, were up a couple percent in the second quarter, versus 2Q '19. And it looks like you took maybe three or four points of rate. So is the intention to get back to sort of the '19 loss ratio level with the 5% rate increase.

明白了。谢谢。只是想一下，我想您说过你们在第二季度考虑了针对特定地区的 5% 费率增长。这是否是您认为需要在整个业务组合中采取的增长幅度？如果我看一下，我认为第二季度的最终成本与 19 年相比，相对于 19 年第二季度上升了几个百分点。而且看起来你们可能采取了三到四个百分点的费率增长。那么，意图是通过 5% 的费率增长回到 19 年的赔付率水平吗？

Tricia Griffith

So the 5% is the average increase and it was an aggregate of 2%. But we do look very specifically across states, across channels, across products. So there won't be a flat rate across any one of those venues, we will look at where we needed the most to get to our target lifetime profit margin. So we'll give you the averages because we're not going to go into specifics. But I will tell you that it's very different depending on the states and what we're seeing both frequency and severity.

所以 5% 是平均增长率，而总计增长是 2%。但我们确实非常具体地审视各个州、各个渠道、各个产品。因此，在任何一个领域都不会有统一的费率，我们会着眼于最需要调整的地方，以达到我们的目标终身利润率。所以我们会给你平均数，因为我们不会深入细节。但我可以告诉你，这根据不同的州以及我们看到的赔付频率和严重性情况而有很大差异。

Operator

接线员

And our next question coming from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

我们的下一个问题来自美国银行 (Bank of America) 的 Josh Shanker。

Josh Shanker

I want to talk about a year ago, or 18 months ago when the pandemic came on, and you made decisions to refund money to customers to cut price to increase advertising spend, in order to getting a new pool of customers and certainly the growth was very strong during the pandemic, to what extent are those customers that you put on and brought on the book, achieving the lifetime value of 96% or better? And to what extent is this period of compressed margin following with what you expected to happen as you put these customers on your books and frequency came back to normal levels?

我想谈谈大约一年或 18 个月前，疫情爆发时，你们决定向客户退款、降价、增加广告支出，以吸引新的客户群体，而且在疫情期间增长确实非常强劲。你们引入的这些客户在多大程度上实现了 96% 或更高的终身价值目标（即综合成本率低于 96%）？以及当前这个利润率压缩的时期，在多大程度上符合你们在引入这些客户并预期赔付频率恢复正常水平时的预期？

Tricia Griffith

Yes. I mean, I think we did the right thing during the pandemic and things have been very volatile and very fluid. And so in terms of -- our sort of Holy Grail is retention. So we're going to do what we can to keep those customers at the target profit margin -- the increases will flow into renewal business. And we expect that could cause people to shop and we get that. But what we want is, in our choice of growth is policies enforced, we want to continue that growth, we know that we need to have the right rates on the street and then we've talked about that a lot. Our objective for many, many years, many decades has been to grow as fast as we can, out to below 96. And profit comes first in that order. It's one of our core values. So we'll continue to look at that. How we treat these circumstances are things that we've done before and so, not to this extent, because we don't -- this is we've never been involved in a pandemic, but we've been in these circumstances before.

是的。我的意思是，我认为我们在疫情期间做了正确的事情，情况一直非常不稳定且变化莫测。所以就——我们的“圣杯”是客户留存。因此，我们将尽力将这些客户保持在目标利润率水平——费率增长将影响续保业务。我们预计这可能会导致人们货比三家，我们理解这一点。但我们想要的是，在我们选择的增长中，是有效保单数量，我们希望继续这种增长，我们知道我们需要在市场上设定正确的费率，我们已经多次讨论过这一点。我们多年来，几十年的目标一直是尽可能快地增长，同时将综合成本率控制在 96% 以下。而利润优先是其中的顺序。这是我们的核心价值观之一。所以我们会继续关注这一点。我们处理这些情况的方式是我们以前做过的事情，只是程度不同，因为我们——这是我们从未经历过的大流行病，但我们以前遇到过类似的情况。

In fact, if you go back in time, 2012 we had similar circumstances where we found that we needed rates at the time, actually, John Sauerland, our CFO was the Personal line President and I was the President of Claims. And we set forth to get the right rate, keep it as many customers as we could, that's really important. And that worked and we were able to grow. But probably the most important example would be in 2016, when we found ourselves over our 96 goal and we reduced expenses and a little bit of marketing and really positioned ourselves well for huge growth. And in fact, in the last five years, we have grown policies in force on the private passenger auto side, greater than 70%.

事实上，如果你回顾过去，2012 年我们遇到过类似的情况，当时我们发现需要提高费率，实际上，我们的首席财务官 John Sauerland 当时是个人险业务总裁，而我是理赔总裁。我们着手设定正确的费率，尽可能多地留住客户，这非常重要。这奏效了，我们得以实现增长。但可能最重要的例子是 2016 年，当时我们发现综合成本率超过了 96% 的目标，我们削减了开支和一些营销费用，并真正为巨大的增长做好了准备。事实上，在过去五年中，我们在私家车保险方面的有效保单数量增长了 70% 以上。

So how we're looking at today is, we believe we did the right thing for customers during the pandemic, we have seen trends steepen at a pretty quick rate, we're going to get the rate we need to get back and be well positioned for that growth that we believe we will calm should we head into a hard market.

所以我们今天看待的方式是，我们相信我们在疫情期间为客户做了正确的事情，我们看到（成本）趋势以相当快的速度恶化，我们将争取获得我们需要的费率以恢复（盈利能力），并为我们认为在进入硬市场时会趋于平稳的增长做好准备。

Josh Shanker

And then, I think you said that March 17, was either the best, or the second best shopping day in the company's history. I think you've probably put on a lot of Sam's or inconsistently in the short customers, to what extent is a huge growth over the past 18 months and really, even just a few months ago by having a new customer penalty on top of your overall book.

然后，我想您说过 3 月 17 日是公司历史上最好或第二好的购物日。我想你们可能引入了很多 Sam's（指代某类客户群体）或者短期内不稳定的客户，过去 18 个月，甚至就在几个月前的巨大增长，在多大程度上是因为在你们整体业务之上增加了新客户的（初期较低的）盈利性影响？

Tricia Griffith

Well, we have had a lot of Sam's, we've had a lot of growth overall. And I talked in my most recent letter about our growth in Robinson's. And again, comparisons are tough as well, because of the large growth we've had in Robinson's and some of our preferred, but yet we've brought on a fair amount of Sam's in again. We are fine with Sam's coming on the book as long as we are priced to our target profit margin.

嗯，我们确实有很多 Sam's，我们整体增长了很多。我在最近的信中谈到了我们在 Robinson's（另一客户群体）方面的增长。再次强调，比较也很困难，因为我们在 Robinson's 和一些我们偏好的客户群体中实现了大幅增长，但我们又引入了相当数量的 Sam's。只要我们定价能达到目标利润率，我们对 Sam's 加入我们的业务组合没有意见。

John Sauerland

I will answer that part Josh, so we have what we call cohort targets, by segment by segment. We call them our consumer marketing tiers. But we also think by channel direct versus agency, new versus renewal and obviously, geographically. And our product managers are constantly looking at their performance relative to those cohort targets. So for example, the new Sam direct customer has a target, obviously new business, we're going to spend a lot to acquire Sam, we're going to want to recoup that quickly on renewal to make sure we were in that lifetime 96. So regardless of the climate we're in, those product managers are monitoring their performance versus those targets. And where we're not meeting them, they're going to take action to make sure they meet him. So we do manage to the calendar combined ratio as a company for sure. And that's what we say our goal is, beneath that product managers are managing to those segments to those cohort targets. Does that help a little?

Josh，我来回答这部分，我们有按细分市场划分的所谓“群组目标”（cohort targets）。我们称之为我们的消费者营销层级。但我们也按渠道（直销与代理）、新业务与续保业务以及显然的地理区域来考虑。我们的产品经理不断地根据这些群组目标来审视他们的表现。例如，新的 Sam 直销客户有一个目标，显然是新业务，我们会花费很多来获取 Sam，我们希望在续保时迅速收回成本，以确保我们达到终身 96 的目标。因此，无论我们处于何种环境，那些产品经理都在监控他们相对于那些目标的表现。在没有达到目标的地方，他们会采取行动以确保达到目标。所以，作为公司，我们确实是按日历年度综合成本率来管理的。这就是我们所说的目标，在此之下，产品经理是按照那些细分市场和群组目标来管理的。这有帮助吗？

Josh Shanker

Certainly. Thank you very much for the answers.

当然。非常感谢您的回答。

Operator

接线员

Now our next question coming from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

我们的下一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。

Ryan Tunis

I had couple on severity and one on growth. The first one is, I mean, just thinking about this. So frequencies, almost back to pre-pandemic levels. That make sense was bound to happen originally, in any event, we're going to get back there. Severity was plus seven in 2019, plus 10 in 2020. And this quarter was plus eight. So it's not exactly clear to me why this severity numbers all that surprising. I'm just trying to square all this and understand why we only started taking rate in this past quarter.

我有关赔付严重性的几个问题，还有一个关于增长的问题。第一个问题是，我的意思是，只是考虑一下这个情况。所以赔付频率，几乎回到了疫情前的水平。这说得通，本来迟早会发生的，无论如何，我们都会回到那个水平。赔付严重性在 2019 年增长了 7%，2020 年增长了 10%。而本季度增长了 8%。所以我不完全清楚为什么这个赔付严重性的数字如此令人惊讶。我只是想把这些信息整合起来，理解为什么我们直到上个季度才开始提高费率。

Tricia Griffith

Well, so we've seen severity trends go up in injuries, what we probably under predicted on severity was the used car valuations and not just the magnitude, but the length of time, the duration. And we did look at that for future trends, not to the extent that of what we're seeing. And again, that's something that's been very different during the pandemic in terms of supply and demand and what is happening with new cars and the lack of available chips, et cetera. So I would say that was probably a miss on our part slightly just because we hadn't seen that we did we did see it going up but not to the extent or the duration of time.

嗯，我们看到人伤方面的赔付严重性趋势有所上升，我们可能低估了严重性方面二手车估值的影响，不仅是幅度，还有持续的时间长度。我们确实考虑了未来的趋势，但没有预料到我们现在看到的这种程度。再次强调，在疫情期间，由于供需关系、新车状况以及芯片短缺等原因，这方面的情况非常不同。所以我想说，这可能是我们方面的一个小失误，只是因为我们没有预见到——我们确实看到它在上升，但没有预见到上升的程度或持续的时间。

And then, the injuries we continue to look at, attorney rep rate continues to go up. And we're seeing attorneys earlier in the claim sort of across regions and across limit profiles and there could be a lot of theories on that. It could be that there's more advertising on the attorney parts, it could be that if you're working from home or that you're not working, you're seeing more advertising in order to call that attorney but we are seeing attorney reps earlier in the claims than we have in the past.

然后，人伤方面我们继续关注，律师介入率持续上升。我们看到律师在索赔早期介入的情况，这在各个地区和各种保额限制范围内都存在，对此可能有很多理论解释。可能是律师方面的广告增多了，也可能是如果你在家工作或没有工作，你会看到更多广告从而去联系律师，但我们确实看到律师比过去更早地介入索赔。

Ryan Tunis

Got it. Yes, it's not like what you guys were reporting numbers last quarter, people are talking more about the property inflection but I mean, clearly we're seeing some social inflation on the BI side. Is that one that you'd say you're more concerned about, kind of a casualty type lost trend versus property lost driven auto.

明白了。是的，不像你们上季度报告数据时，人们更多地谈论财产险的拐点，但我的意思是，很明显我们在人身伤害 (BI) 方面看到了一些社会通胀。与财产损失驱动的车险相比，您是否会说您更担心这种责任险类型的损失趋势？

Tricia Griffith

I mean for the casualty trends, obviously you want to get your arms around attorney reps because those claims are more expensive take longer, not necessarily great experience. We've seen on the private passenger auto because we've seen speeding up there's been more severe accidents. We've seen, labor hours increase and number of parts increase. So that's a little bit different.

我的意思是，对于责任险趋势，显然你想控制住律师介入的情况，因为那些索赔更昂贵、耗时更长，体验也不一定好。在私家车保险方面，我们看到由于超速驾驶增多，发生了更严重的事故。我们看到工时增加，零部件数量增加。所以这有点不同。

On the property side, we had 25 points of cat exposure and so I think, we are looking at a little bit different geographic expansion to make sure that we -- in a sense, derisk a little bit of that book. And then, in addition, on the property side, we want to be able to continue to get rate as we've since last year, and have a more segmented product. So it's a little bit different way we're looking at it, ultimately to get to the same endpoint of a 96 combined ratio.

在财产险方面，我们有 25 个百分点的巨灾风险敞口，所以我认为，我们正在考虑进行一些不同的地域扩张，以确保我们——在某种意义上，稍微降低该业务组合的风险。此外，在财产险方面，我们希望能够像去年以来那样继续获得费率增长，并拥有更细分的产品。所以我们看待它的方式有点不同，最终目标都是达到 96% 的综合成本率。

Ryan Tunis

Got it. And then, just lastly, will you describe these trends is broad based across all states and customer segments? Or is it more localized, is it more Sam's, is more Robinson's that type of thing.

明白了。最后一个问题，您认为这些趋势是普遍存在于所有州和客户细分市场吗？还是说更具地域性，更多地出现在 Sam's 或 Robinson's 这类客户群体中？

Tricia Griffith

The trends of the attorney rep have been across all regions and they've gone up in different rates upon -- with limit profiles. So that's been across the board. Property really is much more specific in states where there's more weather volatility.

律师介入的趋势遍及所有地区，并且根据保额限制的不同，上升率也有所不同。所以这是普遍现象。财产险（的趋势）确实更具体地体现在天气波动性更大的州。

Operator

接线员

And our next question coming from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Barclays.

我们的下一个问题来自巴克莱银行 (Barclays) 的 Tracy Benguigui。

Tracy Benguigui

I don't mean to beat a dead horse here. But is it your impression that regulators are discounting the 2020 year as an anomaly, but relying on 2019 data for indicated rate needs, which may be problematic given their higher premiums at the time and less elevated severity? At least that's what I saw in Texas, explicitly mentioning 2019 data.

我不是想揪着这个问题不放。但您的印象是，监管机构是否将 2020 年视为异常年份而不予考虑，而是依赖 2019 年的数据来确定所需的费率，考虑到当时保费较高且赔付严重性较低，这可能会有问题？至少我在德克萨斯州看到了这种情况，他们明确提到了 2019 年的数据。

Tricia Griffith

Yes. It was hard for me to be in the seat of a regulator. I think they're trying to do the best thing they are trying to do for their constituents as we are. And so that's why we share data, we talk it through and we try to do the right thing, which again, is availability for the consumers, whether it be Texas or any other state. So it's hard for me to say what a regulator is looking at, I think they always want to make sure that there's affordability for the consumers that they represent.

是的。我很难站在监管者的角度思考。我认为他们和我们一样，都在努力为他们的选民做最好的事情。所以这就是我们分享数据、进行沟通并努力做正确事情的原因，这同样是为了消费者的（保险）可获得性，无论是在德克萨斯州还是其他任何州。所以我很难说监管机构在关注什么，我认为他们总是希望确保他们所代表的消费者能够负担得起（保险）。

Tracy Benguigui

Okay. Yes. I just want to know, if there's any way that you could make headway or there may just be a difference of opinion, just given you're looking at different parameters?

好的。是的。我只是想知道，是否有任何方法可以取得进展，或者仅仅是因为你们关注的参数不同而存在意见分歧？

Tricia Griffith

Probably a little of both.

可能两者都有一些。

Tracy Benguigui

Okay. I've been just thinking of rate increases. I mean, also you took a 6.1% rate increase in Florida. And I'm just wondering how much that has to do with PIP. Understand there's a debate going on right now, if insurance could pay 80% of the claims regardless where it lies on the fee schedule. Can you just remind us your conservatism on that spectrum?

好的。我一直在考虑费率上涨的问题。我的意思是，你们在佛罗里达州也将费率提高了 6.1%。我只是想知道这在多大程度上与个人伤害防护（PIP）有关。据了解，目前正在进行一场辩论，即无论索赔在收费标准中的位置如何，保险公司是否都应支付 80% 的索赔额。您能提醒我们一下你们在这方面的保守程度吗？

Tricia Griffith

Yes, I had a lot to do with PIP a lot to do with injury increases as well, that we've talked about in terms of severity. But, Florida has always been volatile with PIP and interpretations of PIP and plaintiff attorneys. And so we are we're pricing to that. And we've seen a lot as you -- as we've told you have -- reopens based on recent decisions.

是的，这与 PIP 关系很大，也与我们之前谈到的严重性方面的人伤赔付增加有很大关系。但是，佛罗里达州在 PIP、PIP 的解释以及原告律师方面一直很不稳定。所以我们正在为此定价。而且正如我们告诉过你的，我们看到很多基于近期判决而重新开启的案件。

Tracy Benguigui

So any concerns over prior period that could result in adverse reserve development?

那么，是否担心前期可能导致不利的准备金发展？

Tricia Griffith

For Florida PIP, I think we've seen less late reports, and we've anticipated in 2020, which is on the PIP side. I don't know that there's any prior, I think it's been the last couple of years. I think prior to that, I would say '19 and 20, not as much '18.

对于佛罗里达州的 PIP，我认为我们看到的延迟报告比我们在 2020 年预期的要少，这是在 PIP 方面。我不确定是否有更早的，我认为是过去几年的情况。我认为在此之前，我会说 19 年和 20 年，18 年没那么多。

John Sauerland

That's a great characterization. And frankly, Florida PIP even going back further than that has been a challenge to price accurately because courts decide what they decide and that changes a lot of the past claims decisions that were made, and a lot of files get reopened. So as we pointed out, we have had adverse development in Florida PIP past couple few years. And if you go back a decade, we had similar. The good news is over the longer term, we've been very successful in the Florida market. We have great share there and we want to continue to grow in Florida as long as we're in that 96 right now, as you pointed out, we are taking actions to address the combined in Florida. But again, over the long-term, we're very confident and happy to grow in Florida.

这个描述很到位。坦率地说，即使追溯到更早的时候，佛罗里达州的 PIP 也一直难以准确定价，因为法院的判决会改变很多过去的索赔决定，导致很多案件被重新审理。因此，正如我们指出的，过去几年我们在佛罗里达州的 PIP 方面出现了不利的准备金发展。如果你追溯到十年前，我们也有类似情况。好消息是，从长远来看，我们在佛罗里达市场非常成功。我们在那里拥有很大的市场份额，只要我们能达到 96%（综合成本率）的目标，我们就希望继续在佛罗里达州发展。正如你指出的，我们目前正在采取行动来解决佛罗里达州的综合成本率问题。但同样，从长远来看，我们非常有信心并乐于在佛罗里达州发展。

Tricia Griffith

And the last thing I'll say on that is, we were very happy that the governor vetoed the latest PIP reform because we thought that would not be good for consumers of Florida. And so, we always work with regulators to make sure we have the right rates there and it is a complicated state but one with which the long-term we've done well.

关于这一点，最后我要说的是，我们非常高兴州长否决了最新的 PIP 改革方案，因为我们认为那对佛罗里达州的消费者不利。因此，我们始终与监管机构合作，以确保我们在那里设定正确的费率，这是一个复杂的州，但从长远来看我们做得很好。

Doug Constantine

We do have a question on the web, asking about Texas and commercial and personalized loss trends and what actions we are taking to improve profitability in Texas.

我们在网上收到一个问题，询问德克萨斯州以及商业和个人险的损失趋势，以及我们正在采取哪些行动来提高德克萨斯州的盈利能力。

Tricia Griffith

We are taking rate.

我们正在提高费率。

Doug Constantine

Very good. Livia, next question.

很好。Livia，下一个问题。

Operator

接线员

Our next question coming from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James.

我们的下一个问题来自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

Greg Peters

Good morning, thank you for fitting me in to your schedule. My first question will be on your comments around the targeted 96 combined ratio. You're talking about growing into other lines of commercial and the capital requirements for some of these other lines embedded in commercial are going to be different than the capital requirements, you have with other parts of your personal auto business. And it also, frankly, is applicable to your property business as well. I'm just curious, if your 96 targeted combined ratio changes depending on the capital requirements on the type of business that you're in.

早上好，谢谢您安排时间让我提问。我的第一个问题是关于您提到的 96% 综合成本率目标。您谈到要拓展到其他商业险种，而这些商业险种中的一些业务线的资本要求将不同于您个人车险业务其他部分的资本要求。坦率地说，这也适用于您的财产险业务。我只是好奇，您的 96% 目标综合成本率是否会根据您所从事业务类型的资本要求而变化。

Tricia Griffith

Yes. And remember, our 96 is the aggregate. So 96 is slightly different. And it's not for public consumption, but slightly different in different areas, depending on that. What we look at, also is what we want that ROE to be in any part of the business and we work towards that. Anytime you have a new business, obviously, you have a big learning experience when we went into the direct private passenger auto, we didn't make money for many years as we learned and grew. And so we expect those, that to happen as well as we learn new businesses and have our arms around trends. And as we grow, that's one of the reasons why, except for the Protective acquisition, which is very different, because they know what they're doing on larger fleets. We sort of try to grow into that. So a great example is fleets for many, many years, we did zero to nine power units, we felt we had our arms around that we were a leader in that, and now we've gone 10 to 40. So we try to learn along the way. Same thing with small business, we're starting with micro businesses, less than 20 employees to make sure that we learn as we grow and expand that addressable market.

是的。请记住，我们的 96% 是总和。所以 96% 会略有不同。这并非公开信息，但在不同领域会根据情况略有不同。我们同时关注的是，我们希望业务的任何部分的股本回报率（ROE）达到多少，并朝着这个目标努力。任何时候开展新业务，显然都会有一个重要的学习过程。当我们进入直销私家车保险领域时，我们在学习和成长的过程中很多年都没有盈利。因此，我们预计在学习新业务并掌握趋势的过程中，也会发生类似的情况。随着我们的成长，这也是为什么，除了 Protective 的收购（这非常不同，因为他们知道如何处理大型车队）之外，我们尝试逐步发展。一个很好的例子是车队业务，很多很多年里，我们只做 0 到 9 个动力单元的业务，我们觉得我们已经掌握了这块业务并且是领导者，现在我们扩展到了 10 到 40 个。所以我们尝试在过程中学习。小企业业务也是如此，我们从微型企业（少于 20 名员工）开始，以确保我们在成长和扩展目标市场的过程中不断学习。

Greg Peters

Just like to clarify your answer on that, on the property business, you've been running about 100 combined ratio for five years now. How much longer will it be above 100, before you get -- before it stops being a drag on your consolidated results.

只是想澄清一下您对此的回答，关于财产险业务，你们的综合成本率已经连续五年在 100% 左右了。在它不再拖累你们的综合业绩之前，还需要多久会高于 100%？

Tricia Griffith

Hopefully not long, because we're not happy with that either. I talked a little bit about the geographic footprint and how we are taking actions to be not have such a high percentage in states that have much more weather volatility, because as we said, that's those 25 points on the property CR. It takes time. It doesn't happen overnight. And we've had just a lot of headwinds from that perspective. So I can't tell you the length of time, but we're working aggressively towards derisking geographically, even if we need to slow down on getting the right rates on the street and making sure that we continue to segment our property models as deeply as we segmented our private passenger auto and commercial auto.

希望不会太久，因为我们对此也不满意。我之前谈到了一些关于地域分布的问题，以及我们正在采取行动，以避免在天气波动性更大的州拥有过高的业务比例，因为正如我们所说，这占了财产险综合成本率的 25 个百分点。这需要时间，不可能一蹴而就。从这个角度来看，我们遇到了很多阻力。所以我无法告诉您具体的时间长度，但我们正在积极努力进行地域性风险分散，即使我们需要放慢在市场上推出合适费率的速度，并确保我们继续像细分私家车和商业车险那样深入地细分我们的财产险模型。

John Sauerland

I might elaborate briefly there. We are not intending to run property above 100. And in fact, as Tricia was noting, we look at ROE across our business lines and as you note required capital we also look at expected investment returns because the duration of claims is different across lines as well. But we target ROEs across the businesses that are equal to or better than private passenger auto and we back into target combined ratios. So for home as you would expect, given the higher capital requirements, the combined ratio target is going to be richer.

我可能在这里简要阐述一下。我们不打算让财产险（综合成本率）超过 100。事实上，正如 Tricia 指出的，我们关注所有业务线的股本回报率（ROE），并且正如您提到的所需资本，我们也关注预期的投资回报，因为不同业务线的索赔持续时间也不同。但我们在所有业务中设定的 ROE 目标都等于或优于私家车保险，并由此倒推出目标综合成本率。因此，对于房屋保险，正如您所预期的，鉴于更高的资本要求，综合成本率目标会更高（即更低）。

We took 12 points rates in home last year. We're on track to do similarly this year. And as Tricia noted, we're taking a lot of actions to get a better geographic footprint that we think reduces the impact of storm losses going forward. If you look back at our recent history, the primary driver of being over 100 has been weather losses. And here it's been difficult to model difficult to price. We're into newer markets. We're learning and we are taking -- we think aggressive actions to get that combined ratio where we want it which is well below 100.

去年我们在房屋保险上提高了 12 个百分点的费率。今年我们有望做到类似水平。正如 Tricia 指出的，我们正在采取大量行动来改善地域分布，我们认为这将减少未来风暴损失的影响。如果你回顾我们近期的历史，（综合成本率）超过 100 的主要驱动因素是天气损失。在这方面，建模和定价一直很困难。我们正在进入新的市场，我们正在学习，并且我们正在采取——我们认为是积极的行动——来使综合成本率达到我们想要的水平，也就是远低于 100。

Greg Peters

Thank you for clarifying that. My second question, and I know it's really small relative to your overall book, but you did spend a portion of your presentation talking about it and that's Protective. And how you plan to use that as part of your commercial lines expansion strategy. And, if I look at Protective's results, over the last three years really hasn't been able to grow at all, they saddled with one large customer and their combined ratio results have certainly been well above what Progressive likes to target. So I'm just curious, if you could just give us a sense of what you see within Protective that helps you gain confidence that it's going to fit well within your overall strategy.

谢谢您的澄清。我的第二个问题，我知道相对于你们的整体业务来说这部分很小，但您确实在演示文稿中花了一部分时间谈论它，那就是 Protective。以及您计划如何将其用作商业险扩张战略的一部分。而且，如果我看 Protective 过去三年的业绩，它几乎没有任何增长，他们受困于一个大客户，而且他们的综合成本率结果肯定远高于 Progressive 的目标。所以我只是好奇，您能否让我们了解一下您在 Protective 身上看到了什么，让您有信心它能很好地融入你们的整体战略。

Tricia Griffith

Yes. I think first of all, if you look at Protective and the rates they've taken, as they've seen their steep severity trend since 2019, they saw that and they've been working towards that. And we're seeing the fruits of that. But more importantly, that addressable market that we saw, so there, they put us upstream into larger fleet, workers comp, which is a really important piece for small and medium fleets. So although we didn't talk a lot about what we believe we can do together long-term and we're going to spend this next six months since we literally just closed in June. We're going to spend this next six months, understanding synergies, learning from each other and then getting a very firm game plan together on what we think we can achieve in the next five years.

是的。我认为首先，如果你看看 Protective 以及他们采取的费率调整，自从 2019 年以来他们看到了急剧上升的赔付严重性趋势，他们注意到了这一点并一直在努力应对。我们正在看到这些努力的成果。但更重要的是，我们看到了那个目标市场，所以，他们将我们带入了上游的更大型车队、工伤赔偿保险（这对中小型车队来说是非常重要的一部分）。因此，尽管我们没有详细讨论我们认为长期可以共同实现的目标，而且由于我们实际上是在 6 月份才刚刚完成（收购），我们将花费接下来的六个月时间。我们将用这六个月来理解协同效应，相互学习，然后制定一个非常明确的行动计划，明确我们认为在未来五年内可以实现的目标。

Operator

接线员

And the next question coming from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

Meyer Shields

Going back to the -- I guess, capital requirement and combined ratio constraints by line of business, if we're still at 96, overall, and other lines of business probably has to come in lower, should we understand that auto on its own to go above 96 and still be within the company constraint?

回到——我想是——按业务线划分的资本要求和综合成本率限制，如果我们总体目标仍然是 96%，而其他业务线的（综合成本率）可能需要更低，我们是否应该理解为汽车（保险）本身可以超过 96%，但仍在公司限制范围内？

Tricia Griffith

You could understand that what we look at is very different, how we expense it as well. So on the direct side is front loaded versus more variable on the agency side. It's different depending on the venue, et cetera. But again, the aggregate is 96. And now we look at each of those different areas, whether it's product or channel to get there.

你可以这样理解，我们关注的东西非常不同，我们如何计算费用也不同。因此，直销渠道的费用是前期加载的，而代理渠道的费用则更具可变性。这取决于销售场所等等因素而有所不同。但重申一下，总和是 96%。现在我们会审视每一个不同的领域，无论是产品还是渠道，以实现这个目标。

Meyer Shields

Okay. I think it's like the related question. And again, it's on Florida, with the rate filings actually requested an increase that was below the indication. And I was wondering if you could talk to the considerations of when that would come into play?

好的。我想这是一个相关的问题。还是关于佛罗里达州，费率备案实际上请求的涨幅低于指示性涨幅。我想知道您能否谈谈在什么情况下会采取这种做法的考虑因素？

Tricia Griffith

Would you repeat the question?

您能重复一下问题吗？

Meyer Shields

Looking at a recent Florida rate filing, there was a requested increase, that was about half of the indicated rate increase. And I was wondering if you could talk through the considerations of when you make that sort of filing?

查看最近佛罗里达州的一份费率备案，其中请求的涨幅大约是指示性费率涨幅的一半。我想知道您能否详细说明一下在什么情况下会提交这样的备案？

Pat Callahan

Sure. This is Pat Callahan, I’m the personalized president. So typically, in some states, there will be a templated indication, and then there's our indication. And when there's a lot of uncertainty, as we look at our future trends, we'll fill out the template as required to from a filing compliance perspective. But then we apply a lot of judgment to kind of how much we actually want to take to balance growth and profitability for the business. So we recognize that in states that are relatively open to file, and then use rates like Florida, we want to take smaller bites at the apple over time to ensure that we're not bouncing our customers or increasing rates faster than necessary. So in the Florida specific case, I expect we're in there frequently, and we will be in there at least once or twice more throughout the remainder of the year.

当然。我是帕特·卡拉汉，个人险总裁。通常，在某些州，会有一个模板化的指示性（费率），然后还有我们自己的指示性（费率）。当存在很多不确定性时，比如我们展望未来趋势时，我们会从备案合规的角度按要求填写模板。但随后我们会运用大量的判断来决定我们实际想要采取多大的（涨幅），以平衡业务的增长和盈利能力。因此，我们认识到，在像佛罗里达这样相对开放、允许备案并使用（file and use）费率的州，我们希望随着时间的推移采取“小口慢吃”的方式，以确保我们不会让客户流失，或者以不必要的速度提高费率。所以在佛罗里达的具体案例中，我预计我们会经常在那里（进行费率调整），并且在今年余下的时间里至少还会进行一到两次。

Operator

接线员

Our next question coming from the line of Gary Ransom with Dowling & Company.

我们的下一个问题来自 Dowling & Company 的 Gary Ransom。

Gary Ransom

I wanted to ask about small commercial and specifically, you were talking about more activity in the direct side for the BOP product. Is there anything you can talk about on the propensity to buy online? I've thought about it is somewhat of a slower moving demographic trend, but are there customers that have been through an agent for 25 years and now suddenly that they like online and starting to buy it that way?

我想问一下关于小型商业险的问题，具体来说，您提到了 BOP（企业主保险）产品在直销渠道的活动增多。关于在线购买的倾向性，您有什么可以谈谈的吗？我一直认为这是一种发展相对缓慢的人口趋势，但是否有客户已经通过代理人购买了 25 年，而现在突然喜欢上了在线购买并开始采用这种方式？

Tricia Griffith

Yes. I think what you're seeing is one of our strategic pillars in place and that's a broad coverage. We want to be where, when and how customers want to shop. And so there are customers because it's a little bit more complicated and especially if this is your dream, your first business venture, you want to make sure you're protected, you have a lot of questions. And so typically and it continue to be the majority of the business have gone through agents in that coverage. We've opened up Business Quote Explorer for those customers not unlike we did years ago on the auto side, when we opened up direct, that feel comfortable with what they need to get there. And as you see the that's gone up a couple percentages, increasing on the direct side, which we are not surprised that and I think especially with the pandemic, where there was less availability, even though a lot of people weren't necessarily opening small businesses, but there was a less availability of agents versus direct just based on shelter in place opportunities that we saw that change. I would expect that more and more customers that have not ever worked with an agent will continue to go online, and that that percentage would increase, we're going to have to continue to get savvy with our investments on the business, quote, explorer side. But that's, we believe a really great opportunity. We love the fact that we have a big agent presence, but there will be customers that want to go through direct and will be there for them as part of our strategic pillar of broad coverage.

是的。我认为您看到的是我们战略支柱之一的体现，那就是广泛覆盖。我们希望在客户想要购物的时间、地点和方式上满足他们。确实有这样的客户，因为（商业险）稍微复杂一些，特别是如果这是你的梦想，你的第一次创业，你想要确保自己受到保护，你会有很多问题。因此，通常情况下，并且仍然是，大部分这类业务是通过代理人购买的。我们为那些客户推出了 Business Quote Explorer（商业报价浏览器），这与我们多年前在汽车保险方面开通直销渠道时所做的类似，让那些对所需保障感到放心的客户可以使用。正如您所见，直销渠道的（业务）比例上升了几个百分点，这并不让我们感到惊讶。我认为尤其是在疫情期间，尽管不一定有很多人开办小企业，但由于居家隔离的机会，代理人的可及性相对于直销渠道有所降低，我们看到了这种变化。我预计，越来越多从未与代理人合作过的客户将继续选择在线渠道，这个比例将会增加。我们将需要继续在 Business Quote Explorer 方面的投资上变得更加精明。但我们相信这是一个非常好的机会。我们很高兴我们拥有强大的代理人网络，但也会有客户希望通过直销渠道购买，作为我们广泛覆盖战略支柱的一部分，我们将为他们提供服务。

John Sauerland

Gary, I would add to that. One part of it is demand, the other part is fulfillment. And across auto overtime property and now commercial, we've gotten a lot better online, meaning a far better experience. And we're starting to roll out the ability to buy online. And we see as we continue to improve the experience, make sure customers can get smoothly through quotes and actually buy online, the fulfillment piece of that equation is improving a lot. And in a direct business, to the extent you are making that side of the funnel, if you will more efficient, it's really powerful in your ability to continue to grow that business because the more efficient you are in fulfilling, the more you can spend upfront to acquire customers.

加里，我想补充一点。一部分是需求，另一部分是（购买）履行。在汽车、财产险以及现在的商业险领域，我们的在线（服务）已经进步了很多，意味着体验好得多。我们正在开始推出在线购买的功能。我们看到，随着我们不断改善体验，确保客户能够顺利完成报价并实际在线购买，这个等式中的履行环节正在大幅改善。在直销业务中，如果你能让销售漏斗的那一端（即购买转化）变得更高效，那么这对你持续发展该业务的能力是非常强大的，因为你在履行方面越高效，你就可以在前期投入更多来获取客户。

Gary Ransom

Is there any specific item you would identify as important to that fulfillment piece? Is there your questions or things along those lines?

对于那个履行环节，您认为有什么具体的项目是重要的吗？是关于您的问题还是类似的东西？

John Sauerland

Well, the ability to buy online is very, very important. So if people go through an online quote, their expectation generally we think is and some people want to call for clarification, assurance, et cetera. But many people expect to be able to click a button and buy. And we find when we elevate that in a state and this goes back to when we were doing this long time ago and auto we're now doing a property. And now in commercial, when we elevate that ability, the conversion rate goes up.

嗯，在线购买的能力非常非常重要。所以，如果人们通过在线报价流程，我们通常认为他们的期望是——有些人可能想打电话来澄清、确认等等——但许多人期望能够点击一个按钮就完成购买。我们发现在某个州提升这种能力时——这可以追溯到很久以前我们在汽车保险上这样做，现在我们在财产险上这样做，以及现在在商业险上——当我们提升这种能力时，转化率就会上升。

Operator

接线员

Our next question coming from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

我们的下一个问题来自 UBS 的 Brian Meredith。

Brian Meredith

Just one quick question here. And I think kind of a follow up to previous question. Tricia, I know the personal auto care recently did take a reserve charge and related to participating versus limited, rate scheduled in the court decision in Florida. How did you interpret that decision? And does that factor in at all how you think about your reserve position in Florida PIP?

这里只有一个简短的问题。我想算是对之前问题的一个跟进。Tricia，我知道个人车险（某公司）最近确实计提了一笔准备金费用，与佛罗里达州法院判决中关于参与性（participating）与有限性（limited）费率表有关。您如何解读那个判决？这是否会影响您对佛罗里达州 PIP（个人伤害保护）准备金状况的看法？

Tricia Griffith

Yes, Brian. Thanks. So I think you're referring to the limited charge and that we have. We accrue for that, as well as a couple of other that has happened over the last couple of years. And so we you know, we look at that we work with the claims organization to understand even though we don't necessarily disagree with the decision that the DCA agreed with that and, we are still challenging that. That said we want to extinguish those exposures and move on because by the time it gets to the core system, possibly to the Supreme Court, it takes many years and so we have our reserves, and our unfavorable reserves have taken that case into account.

是的，布莱恩。谢谢。所以我想你指的是我们有的那个有限费用（limited charge）。我们为此计提了准备金，也为过去几年发生的其他几件事计提了准备金。所以，你知道，我们关注这个问题，我们与理赔部门合作以理解，即使我们不一定不同意地区上诉法院（DCA）同意的那个判决，我们仍在对此提出质疑。话虽如此，我们希望消除这些风险敞口并继续前进，因为等到它进入核心系统，甚至可能上诉到最高法院，需要很多年。所以我们有我们的准备金，我们不利的准备金变动已经考虑了那个案件。

Doug Constantine

We've exhausted our scheduled time and so that concludes our event. Livia, I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.

我们的预定时间已用完，因此我们的活动到此结束。Livia，我将把电话转回给您，宣读结束语。

Operator

接线员

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude Progressive Corporations [first] (sic) second quarter investment event. Information about replay of the event will be available on Investor Relations section of Progressive website for the next year. You may now disconnect.

女士们先生们，Progressive 公司（第一季度？应为第二季度）投资者活动到此结束。有关活动重播的信息将在接下来的一年内发布在 Progressive 网站的投资者关系部分。您现在可以挂断电话了。