2021-11-03 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q3 Earnings Conference Call November 3, 2021 9:30 AM ET
Company Participants
Doug Constantine – Director of Investor Relations
Tricia Griffith – CEO
John Sauerland – Chief Financial Officer
Pat Callahan – President, Personal Lines
Jochen Schunter – Commercial Lines Controller
Conference Call Participants
Mike Zaremski – Wolfe Research
Michael Phillips – Morgan Stanley
Jimmy Bhullar – JP Morgan
David Motemaden – Evercore ISI
Greg Peters – Raymond James
Paul Newsome – Piper Sandler
Ryan Tunis – Autonomous
Tracy Benguigui – Barclays
Josh Shanker – Bank of America
Meyer Shields – KBW
Elyse Greenspan – Wells Fargo
Brian Meredith – UBS
Operator
Welcome to The Progressive Corporation's Third Quarter investor event. The Company will not make detailed comments related to the quarterly results. In addition to those provided in its quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the latter to shareholders, which have been posted to the Company's website, although CEO - will make a brief statement. The Company will then use the remainder of the event to respond to questions. Acting as moderator for the event will be progressive Director of Investor Relations, Doug Constantine. At this time, I will turn the event over to Mr. Constantine.
欢迎参加The Progressive Corporation的第三季度投资者活动。公司不会对季度业绩进行详细评论。除季度报告Form 10-Q和已发布到公司网站的股东信函外，CEO将发表简短声明。公司将利用活动剩余时间回答问题。活动的主持人将是Progressive的投资者关系总监Doug Constantine。现在，我将活动交给Constantine先生。
Doug Constantine
Thank you [indiscernible] and good morning. Although our Quarterly Investor Relations event typically include the presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes schedule for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. Questions can only be asked by telephone dial-in participants. Dialing instructions may be found at investors.progressive.com/events. As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements.
这些声明基于管理层当前的预期，并且受许多风险和不确定性的影响，这些风险和不确定性可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的内容有重大差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅截至2020年12月31日的年度报告Form 10-K以及2021年第一、第二和第三季度的10-Q报告，其中您将找到影响我们业务的风险因素、与前瞻性声明相关的安全港声明以及我们面临挑战的其他讨论。在进入电话会议线路的第一个问题之前，我们的CEO Tricia Griffith将发表一些介绍性评论。Tricia。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Doug. Good morning and welcome to Progressive Third Quarter conference call. We appreciate you joining us. During our second quarter call, we discussed the challenges we were facing as our customers returned to normal driving habits, as the country open from the pandemic and as supply constraints contributed to an unprecedented increase in vehicle valuation. In the third quarter, those challenges continued with the added effect of the most expensive storm in progressive history, hurricane Ida. The result of these challenges is our first quarter with an above 100 CR in 20 years. And through Progressive fashion, we're facing these challenges head on to do what's needed to meet our publicly stated goal of a 96 combined ratio on an annual basis.
作为我们确保达到96目标的努力的一部分，我们正在提高各产品线的费率。虽然反对意见和监管审查是修订过程的一部分，但保险定价的压力是真实存在的。整个行业都受到更高严重性、后疫情时代增加的频率以及天气相关灾难的冲击。监管机构认真对待其足够费率的任务。因此，我们能够与监管机构合作，提高费率以应对不断上升的成本。
Year-to-date through the third quarter, we've placed in-market increases in aggregate of 5 points in Personal Auto, 3 points in Commercial Lines, and 8 points in Property. In Personal Auto during the third quarter, rate increases were effective in 20 states, which had an average increase of about 6%. So we're taking the changes in the environment seriously and reacting decisively. We have more revisions and process across our suite of products, as we work to ensure the rest of 2021 and 2022 meet our calendar year objective. Underwriting is another lever that we're using to address profitability.
截至第三季度，今年以来我们在个人汽车、商业线和财产领域分别增加了5点、3点和8点。在第三季度，个人汽车的费率在20个州生效，平均增加约6%。因此，我们认真对待环境变化并果断应对。我们在整个产品套件中有更多修订和流程，以确保2021年和2022年的日历年度目标。承保是我们用来解决盈利能力的另一个杠杆。
We continue to use this level in Commercial and Personal Lines to ensure we write exposures accurately and they meet our underwriting targets. In Personal Auto, our 8 dot 7 model, which is now in states representing about 40% of our premium, further advances the science of underwriting. And Homeowners, where profitability has been under pressure for several quarters, we are taking additional steps to hasten our progress to meet our profit objective. In the state with high CAT exposure, we've changed our underwriting rules to reduce our exposure, including targeted non-renewals. While non-renewals are not our preferred path, there are times where we need to use nontraditional methods to meet our targets.
我们继续在商业和个人线中使用这个水平，以确保我们准确地书写风险并达到我们的承保目标。在个人汽车领域，我们的8.7模型现在在代表约40%保费的州中进一步推进了承保科学。在盈利能力受到压力的几个季度中，我们采取额外措施加快进度以达到利润目标。在高灾害暴露的州，我们改变了承保规则以减少暴露，包括目标非续保。虽然非续保不是我们的首选路径，但有时我们需要使用非传统方法来达到目标。
While we take steps on the profitability side of the business, we continue to see strong growth. Personal Lines written premiums grew 7%, while Commercial Lines and Homeowners both saw double-digit year-over-year written premium growth in the 3rd quarter. Personal Lines and Homeowners recorded PIF growth of 8% and 13% in the quarter respectively. Commercial auto continues to capitalize on the macroeconomic environment with its third straight quarter of double-digit PIF growth, largely due to growth in the for-hire trucking segment. Though our underwriting actions often have the unfortunate side effect of reducing growth, our product managers continue to scour the competitive landscape to find profitable growth opportunities.
虽然我们在业务盈利能力方面采取措施，但我们继续看到强劲增长。个人线书面保费增长7%，而商业线和房主在第三季度均实现了两位数的同比书面保费增长。个人线和房主在季度中分别记录了8%和13%的PIF增长。商业汽车继续利用宏观经济环境实现其连续第三个季度的两位数PIF增长，主要由于租赁卡车部门的增长。尽管我们的承保行动常常带来减少增长的不幸副作用，但我们的产品经理继续在竞争环境中寻找盈利增长机会。
Finally, I'd like to take this opportunity to once again, thank Mike Seeger, our Claims President, and Jeff Cherny, our Chief Marketing Officer for their contributions to Progressive and to offer my congratulations on their planned retirement. While I'm confident that their replacements are up to the task, Mike and Jeff presence will be greatly missed. Thank you and I'm ready to take the first question.
最后，我想借此机会再次感谢我们的索赔总裁Mike Seeger和首席营销官Jeff Cherny对Progressive的贡献，并祝贺他们计划退休。虽然我相信他们的继任者能够胜任任务，但Mike和Jeff的存在将被深深怀念。谢谢，我准备好回答第一个问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
主持人
[ Operator instructions] one follow-up. Your first question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski of Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
[主持人说明] 一个跟进问题。您的第一个问题来自Wolfe Research的Mike Zaremski。您的连线已接通。
Mike Zaremski
Hi. Good morning. I guess as an insurance geek, I kind of missed the deep dives you guys do. But -- So first question, I guess a lot of -- I know there'll be a lot of focus on and you gave a lot of color in the past about Personal Auto, the severity side of the equation. I was hoping to maybe get some of your insights on the frequency side. Maybe any color on the rate increases and actions Progressive is taking. Does it -- Is it some of the predicated on the potential for accident frequencies to continue increasing? You think they are kind of plateauing? I know they're nearing pre -pandemic levels, I guess I feel like that's kind of, an odd -- one of the bigger uncertainties out there.
你好，早上好。我想作为一个保险迷，我有点想念你们做的那些深入分析。不过——所以第一个问题，我想很多人——我知道大家会很关注，你们过去也详细讲解过个人车险中损失严重度的问题。我希望能听听你们对事故发生频率方面的见解。也许能谈谈Progressive采取的费率提升和其他措施。这些措施是否部分基于事故频率可能继续上升的预期？你们觉得事故频率是在趋于平稳吗？我知道它们正接近疫情前的水平，我觉得这有点奇怪——这是目前比较大的不确定性之一。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Mike. Yes, that is a big uncertainty and we watch it closely, especially because we have so much data from our usage-based insurance on Snapshot. And there's a couple of interesting trends that I'd like to share, we're going to watch this closely again. There's been so many dynamic shifts since the pandemic that we really do have to watch, and then react swiftly to the data. So if you look at vehicle miles traveled, they haven't really changed since the last call.
谢谢你，Mike。是的，这确实是一个很大的不确定因素，我们非常密切地关注，特别是因为我们有大量基于使用情况的Snapshot保险数据。我想分享一些有趣的趋势，我们会持续密切关注。自疫情以来，发生了很多动态变化，我们必须紧盯数据，并迅速做出反应。如果你看车辆行驶里程，自上次电话会议以来其实没有什么变化。
There is still down about 6% to 8% from our 2017 and 2019 baseline. The bigger news that we've watched is frequency has picked up. And we've noticed that in each quarter, specifically in PD and collision. So let me give you a little bit of color of the things we watch for. So, during quarter 1, collision frequency was down about 10 points more than vehicle miles traveled. In quarter 2, that narrowed to 7 points, and in quarter 3, that narrowed further to 3 points. So we look at day parts. During quarter 3, that narrowing was across the whole day. During quarter 3, we saw that frequency narrow more during the morning rush hour, so think of 6 AM to 9 AM.
与我们2017年和2019年的基线相比，车辆行驶里程仍然下降了大约6%到8%。更重要的是，我们观察到事故频率有所上升。我们注意到每个季度，特别是在财产损失和碰撞险方面都有所增加。让我详细说明一下我们关注的内容。第一季度，碰撞事故频率比车辆行驶里程下降多10个百分点。第二季度，这一差距缩小到7个百分点，第三季度进一步缩小到3个百分点。我们还会关注一天中的不同时段。第三季度，这一差距在全天都在缩小。第三季度，我们发现早高峰时段（早上6点到9点）频率缩小得更多。
While we see some evidence that there's congestion as well, it's a little bit surprising to us because people haven't fully returned to the office. We read the headlines in most companies because the Delta variant have pushed off a full return to the office till January. So could it be that kids are going back to school so we're taking our children at school. So there's other variables that we're watching really closely. I think what will be interesting is to see what happens first quarter 2022, when many companies have stated they're going to return to work. And of course, what would that mean? It certainly won't mean full return for every single person, since I think there's going to be a lot of flexibility built in based on the pandemics. We think that'll be an interesting data point.
虽然我们看到了一些交通拥堵的迹象，但这让我们有些意外，因为人们还没有完全回到办公室。我们看到大多数公司因为德尔塔变异毒株的影响，将全面返岗推迟到了明年一月。也有可能是孩子们返校上课，家长们在送孩子上学。所以还有其他变量我们正在密切关注。我觉得有趣的是，2022年第一季度会发生什么，因为很多公司已经表示将让员工返岗。当然，这意味着什么？这肯定不代表每个人都要完全返岗，因为我认为疫情后会有很多灵活性。我们认为这会是一个有趣的数据点。
We also have observed frequency up sharply in the overnight hours. So think of like 1 to 6AM, both weekends and weekday is not correlated with the March reopening and that frequency is above pre - Covid levels by about 10% to 20%. Again, a smaller amount of people driving. So we're watching BMTs closely by day-part, each state, etc., and will be very interesting to see how frequency continues to close the gap on vehicle miles traveled or not. But we're going to watch that closely. So we were able to get a lot of interesting information from our telematics data and we're going to continue to watch that. Does that help Mike?
我们还观察到夜间时段（比如凌晨1点到6点），事故频率大幅上升，无论是工作日还是周末，这与三月的重新开放没有相关性，而且这一频率比疫情前高出约10%到20%。同样，驾驶人数其实更少。因此我们会按时段、按各州紧密关注车辆行驶里程（BMTs），看看事故频率是否会继续缩小与车辆行驶里程之间的差距。这是我们会持续关注的。我们从车联网数据中获得了很多有趣的信息，也会继续关注这些数据。Mike，这些信息有帮助吗？
Mike Zaremski
Yes, thank you for that. My last follow-up question, if I may, if from -- if you look at Progressive's overall paid to incurred boss ratios, I know this is Company-wide. And if we exclude catastrophes, they seem to be down and a lot of the -- for a lot of the commercial cash tensures, we're seeing paid loss levels be down too and some of -- I'm excited that the codes being clogged are running slower. And I guess any color on what's -- anything that's going on there that points to maybe some conservatism in Progressive 's picks?
是的，谢谢你的解答。最后一个跟进问题，如果可以的话，就是——如果你看Progressive公司整体的已赔付与应赔付比率，我知道这是全公司的数据。如果排除灾难性事件，这个比率似乎在下降，而且很多商业险种的已赔付损失水平也在下降，我很高兴看到理赔流程变慢了。我想问下，这里面有没有什么进展，是否说明Progressive在理赔选择上有些保守？
Tricia Griffith
Well, we think of our reserving, in any time frame, we want to be adequate with minimal variation, and that has been consistent for as long as I can remember. I think it's really hard to rely on historical metrics when we're looking at the data. So when you look at case IBNR or paid-to-incurred, whether you compare it to companies or even our own historical data, it's really hard without having the underlying data. So we have changers to our closure rate drop, and then rebound in frequency, increase in severity. All those ratios change when you look at that. What I would say about Progressive is that we feel very good about where we're at, again, with adequate -- with minimal variation. We're about a half point unfavorable for the year, and the majority of that can be attributed to Florida bit. So we don't believe there's conservative and we have not changed our model.
我们对自己的准备金管理有一贯的标准，无论在任何时期，我们都要求充足且波动最小，这一直很一致。我认为在分析数据时，单靠历史指标其实很难得出结论。所以无论是看案子IBNR还是已赔付与应赔付比率，不管是和其他公司对比还是和我们自己的历史数据对比，没有底层数据都很难得出结论。我们经历了结案率下降、事故频率反弹、损失严重度上升等变化，这些都会影响相关比率。关于Progressive，我想说我们对目前的状况非常满意，依然是充足且波动很小。今年大约有半个百分点的不利影响，主要归因于佛罗里达地区。所以我们认为并没有保守，也没有改变我们的模型。
Mike Zaremski
Thank you.
谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Mike.
谢谢，Mike。
Operator
主持人
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips of Morgan Stanley.
您的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的Michael Phillips。
Michael Phillips
Thanks. Good morning. Tricia, I preached in the comments in your letter about how you see two forms of risk from the regulatory environment. The first was the kind of risks around mandatory of rebates or just regulatory rebates or mandates around the profitability from 2020. I guess, on that one, are you referring to the possibility of more refunds that might happen and I guess that's -- and if so, how real is that risk?
谢谢，早上好。Tricia，我在你的信中注意到你提到了你认为监管环境下存在两种风险。第一种是关于强制返还或者监管要求返还，或者针对2020年盈利情况的强制返还。我想问，这方面你是指有可能还会有更多退款发生吗？如果是这样，这个风险有多大？
Tricia Griffith
I was referring more to the asymmetry and the fact that we had this unprecedented event that hopefully none of us will have to live here in our lifetime where we had excess margins. And as an industry and certainly Progressive we swiftly gave that back to our customers and our 20% decrease over the 2 months. And then of course, when a decreased rates by another 3%, which equated to another $800 million on top of the $1 billion we gave back. So what I was referring to was now we're in a much different place. Severity trends are up 10 points, and we need rate. And we want to make sure in the end.
我更多是指这种不对称性，以及我们经历过的这种前所未有的事件——希望我们有生之年都不会再遇到——当时我们有了超额利润。作为一个行业，当然包括Progressive，我们很快就把这些返还给了客户，两个月内降价20%。然后我们又降价了3%，这相当于在返还的10亿美元基础上又返还了8亿美元。所以我想说的是，现在我们处于完全不同的阶段。损失严重度趋势上升了10个百分点，我们需要提价。我们希望最终能够做到这一点。
And we believe that regulators are rational. They want to make sure that we're open and available and have competitive rates, because that's good for all of our consumers. And so, what I was referring to there is when things change swiftly, it's got to go both sides. And in many of the states that we work with, and again, the majority of the regulators we're working with are really rational and get that they want to see the data which makes sense. They want to make sure the rates are adequate for their constituents. But we definitely need rate that is real.
我们相信监管机构是理性的。他们希望我们保持开放、可用，并且拥有有竞争力的价格，因为这对所有消费者都有好处。所以我想说的是，当情况快速变化时，应该是双向的。在我们合作的许多州，大多数监管机构都非常理性，他们希望看到合理的数据。他们希望确保费率对他们的民众来说是合适的。但我们确实需要真正的费率调整。
Michael Phillips
Okay. Stepping feels real. I guess the second risk was just in line with that prospective rate increases. If -- are there concerns there from when you talk to regulators that maybe what you're seeing on the severity side isn't long lasting and therefore, we don't want to give rate increases if that's the case?
好的。我明白了。第二个风险其实也和未来的费率上调有关。当你和监管机构沟通时，他们会不会担心你们现在看到的损失严重度上升不是长期现象，因此不愿意批准费率上调？
Tricia Griffith
Well, it is either because we're state regulated, and there are different ways with which rates get improved. And so different states look at it differently. So as you look at a state like California, their Department of Insurance requires us to look backwards to fill up the templates. So, while California was a little bit behind in frequency, it has picked up and is actually outpacing countrywide at this point. And so, when you fill up those templates, those rate indications are going to be distorted based on the data from last year. What we believe will happen is -- it's not reflective of the claims activity we're seeing.
是的，因为我们是州监管的，不同州对于费率调整有不同的审批方式。所以不同州的情况不一样。比如加利福尼亚州，他们的保险部门要求我们回溯历史数据来填写模板。虽然加州的事故频率一度落后，但现在已经回升，甚至超过了全国平均水平。因此，当你填写那些模板时，基于去年的数据，费率指示会被扭曲。我们认为，这些数据并不能反映我们现在看到的理赔实际情况。
So as frequency and severity trends earn in, we'll be able to put that in the templates and show that we will -- we're rate and adequate and then we'll be able to increase rates in California. For now, we're going to reduce our marketing spending in California to slow our growth, and continues to be able to update that department. So we work with every department, and every department is a little bit different. You can have file and use. You can file prior approval. We work with each department to make sure we give them the data they need to feel good about putting our rates on the street.
所以随着事故频率和损失严重度趋势逐步反映到数据中，我们就可以把这些数据填进模板，证明我们的费率是合理且充足的，然后就能在加州实现费率上调。目前，我们会减少在加州的市场营销投入，以放缓增长，同时持续向监管部门更新信息。我们与每个部门合作，每个部门的情况都不一样。有的可以“报备即用”，有的需要“事先审批”。我们会确保为每个部门提供他们需要的数据，让他们放心地批准我们的费率。
Michael Phillips
Okay. Good colors. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
好的，信息很详细。非常感谢，我很感激。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Mike.
谢谢，Mike。
Operator
主持人
Your next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar of JP Morgan.
您的下一个问题来自摩根大通的Jimmy Bhullar。
Jimmy Bhullar
Hi. Good morning. So, first I had a question just along the line that have been asked on the Auto business. Where are you and you mentioned California already, but where are you overall through the country in terms of your prices, catching up to what's happening with frequency and severity, and your margin sort of getting to what your long-term goals have been. Is this something that you think happens in the next three to six months or could it be even longer as you go through the whole process with states like California?
你好，早上好。首先我想问一个关于汽车保险的问题。你刚才已经提到加州了，但就全国范围来说，你们的定价跟上了事故频率和损失严重度的变化吗？利润率距离你们的长期目标还有多远？你认为这是三到六个月内能实现的，还是说像加州这样的审批流程会让周期更长？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah, I think it could be a little bit longer than that depending on states. We think we'll continue to need a little bit more rate, and we're watching the trends carefully. We've talked often in the last -- actually probably 10 years about wanting to take smaller bites of the apple. So we're watching the trends closely, especially because they changed so dramatically since March of last year. And so we're going to watch those trends, and we'll react swiftly. What I would say is that there's a lot that goes into a premium, including average written premium, and that can change.
是的，我认为根据不同州的情况，可能会比三到六个月更长。我们认为还需要进一步提价，我们正在密切关注趋势。其实在过去十年里，我们经常强调要“小步快走”。尤其是自去年三月以来，趋势变化非常快，所以我们会持续观察，并及时反应。我想说，影响保费的因素很多，比如平均签单保费，这些也会变化。
And it reflects differently depending on states. So you might have a high average written premium in a state like Florida, and if you don't have the right rates and you don't grow there, that would affect countrywide. So there's so many different inputs, including our consumers. So if you -- if you shrink in Sam's versus Robinson's, that will also affect average written premium because they have a higher average written premiums. So we're getting there, we believe we'll need more and then we'll continue to watch the trend again as they unfold. And I shared the opening question about how we're seeing the trends changed with our usage-based information. And then we'll react swiftly to those.
而且各州的表现也不同，比如佛罗里达的平均签单保费很高，如果费率不合适、增长放缓，会影响全国表现。还有客户结构的变化，比如Sam’s型客户和Robinson’s型客户的占比变化，也会影响平均保费。总之我们正在逐步推进，但还需要更多提价，并持续关注趋势。正如我在开场时提到的，我们会利用基于使用的数据来观察趋势变化，然后快速做出反应。
Jimmy Bhullar
Okay. And then just on the Property -- the Homeowners business, I think margins --obviously, you saw gaps recently, but margins have been weak as far back as I could remember. I realize that you're trying to build the business, but is this a business that you think can be profitable on underwriting margins on it's its own or is it subsidizing auto or providing you other benefits that you're willing to continue to underwrite at a 100% plus combined ratio?
好的。再问一下房产险——也就是房主险业务。我记得你们的利润率一直偏低，最近也有波动。我知道你们在扩展这块业务，但你们认为这块业务本身可以实现承保利润吗？还是说它主要是为了带动车险或者其他协同效益，所以你们愿意接受100%以上的综合赔付率？
Tricia Griffith
So, we're not happy with writing it at a 100% combined ratio. We want to make an aggregate 96% in all of our products there. We have different but none of them are over 100, I assure you that. We don't want to subsidize. We do think it's great for our customers at Robinson's that want our brand, our home and auto bundles, so we'll continue to do that. But we know what we've done has started to work, but has not fully worked. Again, if you look at what has happened this year, a lot of it was based on catastrophes.
我们对100%的综合赔付率并不满意。我们希望所有产品的整体目标是96%。我们有不同的目标，但没有哪一项超过100%，我可以保证。我们不希望去补贴。我们确实认为对于喜欢我们品牌、需要房车捆绑产品的Robinson’s型客户来说，这很有价值，所以我们会继续做。但我们也知道，虽然措施已经开始见效，但还没完全达标。今年的亏损很大程度上是因为灾害。
If you look at and compare it to the industry in more of the non-volatile states, we're actually very competitive. So we knew we need to do something different. So last year, we took up rates, a nearly 12 points this year, 8 points, and then we've talked about cost sharing with our customers. And more importantly, a couple of bigger things that we're doing to get us closer to our profitability is we're going to shift our portfolio of property over the next year or two. We have legacy states where ASI was really strong, and think of Texas, and Florida, Louisiana up through some of the hail alley.
如果你看行业里那些非高波动州，我们其实很有竞争力。所以我们知道需要做出改变。去年我们涨价了近12个点，今年又涨了8个点，还在和客户分摊部分成本。更重要的是，我们未来一两年会调整房产险组合。我们有一些遗留的高风险州，比如ASI当年很强的德州、佛罗里达、路易斯安那和冰雹带。
We've had a lot of catastrophes. We have more exposure there because more of our book of business is there. So think of the rest of the state non-volatile. I mean, the rest of the country, non-volatile state, is a little bit over 50% of our portfolio. We're going to shift that over time to be more in the 60% to 70% of our portfolio, so shifting away from the volatile catastrophic coastal states. We are going to appoint more agents in those non-volatile states, reduce our agent footprint in the volatile states and make that movement to have a more balanced portfolio. And I talked in my opening remarks about some targeted non-renewals.
这些地方灾害多，我们的风险敞口大。而全国其他非高波动州，现在占我们房产险组合刚过50%。我们计划逐步把这个比例提升到60%到70%，也就是减少沿海高灾害州的业务。我们会在低波动州增加代理人，在高波动州减少代理人，实现组合平衡。我在开场时也提到过针对性不续保措施。
We will start to commence that, specifically in Florida. And we're going to work really around that focus on making sure we have more of a balanced portfolio. We both -- we are -- we still are very happy that we purchased ASI now Progressive home, we believe that's in our future, but our goal now is to get to profitability. We believe in the things that we're doing besides the rate increases, and I should mention continued segmentation. So that is a big piece of it. We're going to continue to enhance our segmentation like we have an auto product. And we believe those levers will certainly help us get to where we want to go.
我们会从佛罗里达开始实施这些措施，确保我们的组合更加平衡。我们依然很高兴当年收购了ASI（现在的Progressive Home），我们相信这块业务有未来，但当前的目标是实现盈利。除了提价，我们还会继续做细分管理，这和我们在车险上的做法类似。我们相信这些举措会帮助我们实现目标。
Jimmy Bhullar
Okay. Thank you.
好的，谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks.
谢谢。
Operator
主持人
Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden of Evercore ISI.
您的下一个问题来自Evercore ISI的David Motemaden。
David Motemaden
Hi, good morning. I had a question just around PIF and conversion rates. Wondering if you could just talk a little bit about what's going on in the direct segment. I saw the conversion rates were down only 2% in the quarter, which is a little bit less than I would've expected given some of the rate actions that you're taking. Maybe could you just talk about why this is down? Did that surprise you that it was down that much and not more? And I guess, why -- is that more of reflection of some of the price changes that you're putting through just haven't hit yet? Or does that really just speak to the competitive environment and peers increasing rates like you are?
你好，早上好。我想问一下关于保单在册量（PIF）和转化率的问题。你们能不能讲讲直销渠道的情况？我看到本季度转化率只下降了2%，考虑到你们采取的提价措施，这比我预期的降幅要小。你们觉得为什么会这样？这个结果让你们意外吗？是因为你们的价格调整还没完全反映出来，还是说其实是行业竞争环境变化，同行也在涨价？
Tricia Griffith
It's a great question, David. There's a bunch of different things including some timing of what was happening in quarter 3 of 2020. So when I think about conversion, I would go back to our decline in new app. So on the agency side, they are down about 14%. We think that prospect denominator was elevated in 2020. So, in 2020, there was virtually no shopping in quarter two. That move to quarter three, and then this year in addition, we pulled back on advertising. So we think conversion was stable, so we do think we still have a fairly competitive product on the direct side. On the agency side, In ups and down about 20% prospects were down slightly, but conversion was down a lot.
这是个好问题，David。这里面有很多因素，包括2020年第三季度的一些时点问题。说到转化率，我会回溯到新保单申请数量的变化。代理渠道的新单下滑了大约14%。我们认为2020年潜在客户基数被抬高了。当年第二季度几乎没人比价，需求都挤到第三季度。今年我们又减少了广告投放。所以我们认为转化率是稳定的，直销渠道的产品竞争力依然不错。而代理渠道新申请下滑约20%，潜在客户略降，但转化率降幅很大。
That was really due to material tightly underwriting restrictions we put into place, rate increases, and there's like 3 big States where we have material drops in conversion. Again, the timing-wise that may be overstated, even a bit based on the fact that there is a lot of stimulus going on at this time last year. And we also had high conversion in Michigan based on some coverage reform. But you talked specifically about the direct side. I think a lot of that has to do -- the reduction has been -- has to do with advertising from the new apps. So we feel good about our conversion, that could change as more rate come in, and as we reduced more advertising. Do you guys want to add anything?
主要原因是我们收紧了承保标准、提价，而且有三个大州的转化率降幅非常明显。时间节点上，去年同期还有很多刺激政策，这对比可能也放大了降幅。密歇根因为保障改革，转化率去年很高。回到直销渠道，我认为转化率下降主要和新单广告投入减少有关。我们对目前的转化率还算满意，未来如果进一步提价或继续减少广告，转化率可能会变。你们有要补充的吗？
John Sauerland
I would add briefly that the other thing that could influence countrywide conversion is the mix of quotes we're getting across geographies. So with direct advertising, you have the ability to generate quotes at a very local level. And if we have concerns on profitability in an area where we previously had higher conversion, we will shut off or reduce the ad spend in that area, and that would then show the decrease in conversion just by that mix change. When we're adjusting ads spend at the local level, you can see changes in conversion in total simply by that mix. So rate is one thing for sure but interestingly on the direct side, you can also influence conversion based on your marketing spend.
我补充一下，影响全国整体转化率的另一个因素是不同地区报价的结构。直销广告可以非常本地化地获取报价。如果某个地区过去转化率高、但盈利有压力，我们会减少或关闭那里的广告投放，这种结构变化本身就会拉低整体转化率。所以不仅仅是费率，直销渠道的转化率还会受到营销投入的影响。
Doug Constantine
I would add just one further thing, that when our prospects fall because we spend less, then your conversion naturally goes up simply because you've got more engaged consumers when you're spending less; because they're motivated to come shop. So that will have a counteracting effect on conversion that will offset some of what rate increases would be doing.
我再补充一点：当我们减少广告投放、潜在客户减少时，剩下的客户往往更有购买意愿，所以转化率反而会上升，这会抵消一部分因提价导致的转化率下滑。
David Motemaden
Got it. That makes sense. So it sounds like we need to think about just quote volume as well in combination with just the conversion rate as well when thinking about that. That's helpful. That makes sense. And then I guess just for my follow-up, I guess I just had a question on the 5 points of rate that you've taken so far this year. My understanding is some of that is on new business, some of that's on the renewal book. I guess, when I look at the policyholder life expectancies, those were also a bit more resilient than I would've expected. I guess, maybe, could you just talk about how much of the 5 points that you've gotten this year has been -- I guess, how policyholders, existing policyholders seeing a lot of that 5 points yet? Or is that still on the come?
明白了，很有道理。所以我们分析时要结合报价量和转化率一起看，这很有帮助。再追问一下：你们今年已经执行了5个百分点的提价，我理解有的是针对新单，有的是续保。看保单持有期的数据，似乎比我预期的还要坚挺。你们能不能说说，这5个百分点的提价，现有客户已经感受到多少了？还是说大部分还没落地？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. I would say, and Pat, you could add anything. I think that it's still yet to come because think of -- think if we had a rate change on the streets that's starting today, and I renewed yesterday. I had the old rate, so I've got that for 6 months. So I have -- we have some inflationary measures that work into their monthly rating factors. But then, I won't get that new one until that 6th month, and then, it earns in over that 6th month. So it really depends on timing and each state. And remember, it's 5% in aggregate, so it's different in different states depending on our needs, so that rate will continue to earn it. And that's one of the reasons why we continue to have the majority of our auto policies -- our private passenger auto policies on at 6 months position so we can be nimbler when we need to get rate. Thanks, David.
是的，我想说，Pat你可以补充。我认为大部分提价效果还没完全体现。比如今天刚提价，但昨天刚续保的客户，还是用的老价格，还要等6个月才会用新价格。虽然我们有些月度调价机制，但大部分客户要等下一个6个月周期才会用到新费率。而且5%是全国加权平均，不同州的幅度不一样，落地的节奏也不同。所以提价效果还在逐步兑现。这也是我们坚持大部分车险保单采用6个月周期的原因——这样需要调价时我们能更灵活。谢谢，David。
David Motemaden
Got it. Thank you.
明白了，谢谢。
Operator
操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Peters of Raymond James.
您的下一个问题来自Raymond James的Greg Peters。
Greg Peters
Good morning. I know you've commented in the past on this, but given the changing moving parts within new business versus renewal, maybe you could just revisit your comments around the loss ratio, or combined ratio performance between the different cohorts. Because I suppose if new business is a little softer, theoretically you should get a corresponding lift if there is an impact in new business penalty.
早上好。我知道你们过去曾经谈过这个问题，但考虑到新业务和续保之间的动态变化，也许你们可以重新谈谈不同客户群体之间在赔付率或综合成本率方面的表现。因为我认为，如果新业务略有下滑，理论上如果存在新业务惩罚，你们应该会相应地看到改善。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. I mean, I see -- I think I get your question. You guys could add on anything. Your new business has historically had a penalty when it's put on the books and it's different in agency and direct. That's why it's so important. We talk a lot about our holy grail being renewal business because we start to understand our customers better. On the direct side, we're loading all of our marketing costs on that first 6-months policy in the direct side. So I think when we look -- when I look at that, we look at -- attest differently, new PIFs versus renewal PIFs. Our renewal PIFs are still up. That could change.
是的，我明白——我想我理解你的问题。你们可以补充任何内容。新业务在刚录入时通常会有一定的惩罚效应，而且在代理渠道和直销渠道表现不同。这也是为什么我们一直强调续保业务的重要性，因为我们会逐渐更了解客户。在直销渠道，我们把所有营销成本都摊在首个6个月的保单上。所以当我们看这个问题时，我们会区分新保单在册量和续保在册量。目前我们的续保在册量仍然在增长，这种情况可能会变化。
I think David asked the question about PLE. We're still up 4% across both channels on trailing for PLE. So we hope that continues. That could fluctuate depending on how much rate we need. And then again, with new paths, we're down slightly maybe 10%. But again, that is very dependent on different commercial or tiers -- marking tier though we're down much more on some, so that affects that as well. So there's a lot of different factors that go into both the new and renewal. And -- did that answer your question or do you need more information?
我记得David问过关于保单持有期（PLE）的问题。我们在两个渠道的PLE同比仍然增长了4%，我们希望这种趋势能持续下去，但会根据提价幅度有所波动。至于新业务，可能略微下降了大约10%，但这也和不同的业务类型或分层有关，有些分层降幅更大，也会影响整体表现。所以新单和续保的影响因素很多。——这样的回答能解决你的疑问吗，还是需要更多信息？
Greg Peters
And while it does answer the question, but I'm always -- I always welcome more information if you want to provide it.
这个回答已经解决了我的疑问，不过如果你们还想补充更多信息，我也很欢迎。
John Sauerland
The one thing I would add to that is that, you talked about the new business penalty. Of course, as Tricia mentioned, on direct business, there's a huge expense load difference. So as we're writing fewer new customers that flows through an advertising spend as well. So there's certainly a benefit on spending less and getting fewer new customers in the direct set, in terms of costs. In terms of loss ratio, we see a bigger differential between new and renewal on the Sam end of the spectrum than on the Robinson end of the spectrum. So to the extent we are reducing Sam's coming through the door relative to Robinson's, it would have a bigger benefit on the loss ratio side.
我补充一点，你提到新业务惩罚效应。正如Tricia提到的，直销业务的费用负担非常不一样。当我们新客户获取减少时，广告支出也会减少，从成本角度看是有好处的。从赔付率来看，Sam类客户的新单和续保之间的差距比Robinson类客户大得多。如果我们减少了Sam类新客户的进入，相对于Robinson类客户，这对赔付率的改善作用会更明显。
So there's some of that coming through, but you also have to recognize that our book is heavily, heavily weighted to renewal customers, so it can have some benefit. But in aggregate, we need the benefit of the rate flowing through the book, the new and renewal customers. It's going to flow through renewals sooner, and there's far less elasticity in the renewal book. So you will see average premiums rising sooner and more likely on the renewal side. On the new side, customers are shopping, and it's a highly elastic market. We'll see some of that rate. We'll see a little slower, or we'll probably see a little less of it simply because there are other options in the marketplace. And we move faster than others when it comes to taking rate when we need it.
所以这方面确实有一些积极影响，但你也要注意，我们的业务结构中续保客户占比很高，这部分会带来一定好处。不过总体来说，我们还是需要费率调整的红利在新单和续保客户中逐步兑现。续保客户的调整会更快显现，因为这部分客户对价格的敏感度较低，所以你会更早看到平均保费的提升。新客户由于正在比价，市场弹性很大，所以提价的效果会慢一些，或者说体现在新业务上的幅度会小一些，因为市场上还有其他选择。而我们在需要提价时，动作比同行更快。
So we think, and we've seen historically at least, that competitors are seeing the same trends we are. They will need the same price changes. It may take them longer. So we might see a bit imbalance on the new business front for a while. But again, our experience is, competitors see the same thing, they catch up, and by the time they do, we're in a very good position and very confident in growing more and turning advertising back up and the other growth levers we have.
所以我们认为，至少从历史经验来看，同行也在经历和我们类似的趋势，他们也需要提价，只是动作可能慢一些。因此短期内新业务市场可能会有些失衡，但通常同行很快会跟进，到那时我们就会处于非常有利的位置，也有信心重启广告投放和其他增长手段。
客户的忠诚度越高，提价的灵活性越高，竞争对手如果跟着提价弄不好被抢了市场份额。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah, I think that's great. And as long as, Greg, you want more information? If you go back to the last time we needed rate like this, it would be right around 2012, and we did the same thing. We have a great pricing organization, they're able to get the rates on the street relatively quickly usually before our competition. So when the market turns hard, we believe we're more competitive and that's really what we're positioning ourselves for right now.
是的，我觉得这个补充很好。如果Greg你还想了解更多信息，可以回顾上一次我们大幅提价，大约是在2012年，我们当时也是采取了类似做法。我们有一支非常优秀的定价团队，通常能比同行更快地把新费率推向市场。所以当市场变得艰难时，我们相信自己会更具竞争力，这也是我们当前的战略定位。
Greg Peters
I appreciate the color. I guess, the second question is more detail-oriented because you've mentioned that -- I'm talking about Florida PIP. You've mentioned that we heard it from others. Maybe you could just take a minute and provide us your perspective of what's going on with that. When we see charges for a specific issue, it's my perspective that it's never 1 bite at the apple fixes that. It takes us a couple of bites before it's -- you finally got it resolved. And so I'm left wondering with Florida PIP if we're not in third or fourth inning and we're going to have a couple more adverse hits from that specific issue before it resolves itself. So just some history on what's going on there and what you think about going forward.
谢谢你们的解读。我还有一个更细节的问题，就是关于佛罗里达PIP（个人伤害保护险）。你们也提到过这个问题，我们也从其他公司那里听说过。能不能花点时间讲讲你们对佛罗里达PIP的看法？因为我觉得针对某些具体问题，通常不是“一次性解决”，往往要经历几轮冲击才能真正解决。所以我在想，佛罗里达PIP是不是还处于第三、第四局，未来还可能有几次不利影响才能最终平息？能不能谈谈相关历史和你们对未来的看法？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah, I mean Florida PIP is such an anomaly in terms of what can happen with plaintiffs’ bar there. So you can -- if something can go through the system, it can seem really good, and then it's challenged. And if it's lost in one part of the state, and then appealed and lost or won in another part of the state. Different things are always happening. With what we have currently, we feel very good about our reserving for PIP and where we're going. That can change any time because plaintiff attorneys in Florida, specifically, can challenge anything, and then you have to make sure you are thinking about the future.
是的，佛罗里达PIP确实是个很特殊的现象，主要是当地原告律师团体的影响非常大。有时候某个案件在流程中看起来很顺利，但随时可能被挑战。如果某地判我们败诉，可能会上诉，在另一个地区又可能胜诉或再次败诉，各种情况都可能发生。就目前而言，我们对PIP的准备金和未来走势还是很有信心的。但这种情况随时可能变化，因为佛罗里达的原告律师真的可以挑战任何事情，所以我们必须时刻考虑未来的风险。
Do you have to reopen? We try to do in anything like this happens where a case is lost by a competitor and usually when a case is lost by us or any competitor it affects the majority of the competitors. And then we determine, is it worth fighting? How long? What does that mean exactly? And we work towards getting it wrapped up and that's really what we're doing right now. We are trying to wrap these up, we're trying to do some bigger global settlement of maybe a law firm that has many of our insureds with its litigation to get it wrapped up quickly and as inexpensively as possible. I can't tell you that something won't be challenged next year.
你要不要重新开案？我们通常会这样做：如果某个案件我们或同行败诉了，往往会影响到整个行业。我们会评估是否值得继续抗争，要花多长时间，具体意味着什么，然后努力尽快解决。目前我们就在做这件事，尝试通过与涉及我们大量被保险人的律所达成更大范围的整体和解，尽快、尽量低成本地解决问题。但我无法保证明年不会再有新挑战。
It will tell you that we've talked about it more internally because Florida PIP goes with these ebbs and flows of what happens depending on what happens with PIP reform or not. And so, we're starting to think more with Florida PIP almost like you do a cat load in some of those other states. And because this does -- this does come more often so I can tell you is we're looking at it more like that which is differently than we've done in the past.
可以说，我们公司内部已经越来越重视这个问题，因为佛罗里达PIP的波动很大，取决于相关改革是否推进。所以我们现在对佛罗里达PIP的态度，越来越像对待某些州的巨灾风险一样去考虑。因为这种情况发生得更频繁，我们现在的处理方式和以往已经不一样了。
保险业面临政府监管的力度可能是加强的。
Greg Peters
Got it. Thanks for the answer.
明白了，谢谢你的解答。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler.
您的下一个问题来自Piper Sandler的Paul Newsome。
Paul Newsome
Good morning. Thanks for your help. I have a couple of questions on the home business in particular. And first 1, how impactful is the home non-renewal on growth of the new product? I think it's been a long time since you've actually done non-renewals, but bundled product. You've -- obviously, auto piece is really important to you guys. Is that something we should see in the numbers or is it pretty small?
早上好。感谢你们的帮助。我有几个关于房屋保险业务的问题。第一个问题是，房屋保险的非续保对新产品增长的影响有多大？我记得你们已经很久没有做非续保了，尤其是在捆绑产品方面。显然，车险对你们来说非常重要。这种影响会在数据中体现出来，还是说影响其实很小？
Tricia Griffith
Well if -- we have a number of what we believe will be non-renewals. And then we take it down to each customer to say, are there customers that have maybe something has changed with their home, that they've updated their roofs that we can continue to have on the books? We look to see if some of our unaffiliated partners could help if they wanted to take the customers. And it's going to take a while because there's actually a time frame with which we need to work with the Florida Department to make sure that we give a lot of notice. So you're not going to see those first non-renewals happening till May of next year. But we think it will be significant because this cohort of customers are really, really, really unprofitable.
其实我们预计会有一批客户将被非续保。我们会逐一分析每位客户，比如他们的房屋是否有变化，比如换了新屋顶，这样我们可以继续承保。我们也会看是否有一些非关联合作伙伴愿意接收这些客户。整个过程会需要一些时间，因为我们必须与佛罗里达监管部门配合，确保提前充分通知客户。所以你们要到明年五月才会看到第一批非续保开始发生。但我们认为这会产生重大影响，因为这部分客户确实非常非常不盈利。
And so we need to get there in addition to moving our footprint more towards non-volatile states. So there's a lot of work to be done before we know the exact number. We obviously have a number of where we think we start with and then we're going to try to work with our customers. We also -- we'll give the customers an opportunity to stay with Progressive if they opt into the new roof payment schedule, which is where there will be some -- a coverage options to share the cost of the replacement with us. So a lot going on there.
此外，我们还需要将业务重心逐步转向风险较低的州。在确定具体数量之前还有很多工作要做。我们当然有一个初步的预计数字，之后会努力与客户沟通。我们也会给客户机会，如果他们愿意选择新的屋顶付款计划，就可以继续留在Progressive，这种计划会让客户和我们共同分担更换屋顶的费用。所以这里面还有很多事情在推进。
And no we don't do non-renewals very often it's -- and usually, you try to get the rate for it, but these customers are very unprofitable. We couldn't get enough rate to have them ever be close to profitable, and that's why we need to do that. It's never something we want to do, but as we looked at our whole portfolio and our strategy going forward, we realize this is an important piece to start as -- to start to set as ship straight.
而且我们其实很少做非续保，通常会优先考虑提价，但这一批客户实在太不盈利了，无论怎么提价都无法让他们变得接近盈利，所以才必须采取非续保措施。这并不是我们想做的事，但当我们审视整个产品组合和未来战略时，发现这是必须迈出的关键一步，有助于公司航向更加稳健。
John Sauerland
And while we -- we don't know exactly how many customers we'll have to, now, renew, and as Tricia said, we're trying to work with customers for options to stay with us. You should think of a very low single-digit percentage of our policies enforced countrywide. But this is not a huge shift, but it's a shift, as Tricia was saying, geographically. So while we want to reduce our footprint in the volatile space, we want to grow in the less volatile space. So in aggregate, our objective is still to grow. It's simply to grow in different areas.
虽然我们还无法准确预计最终要非续保的客户数量，正如Tricia所说，我们也在努力为客户提供留在Progressive的选项。整体来看，这部分非续保客户只占我们全国保单的极低个位数比例。这不是一次大规模调整，而是一次区域性调整。我们希望减少高风险地区的业务，同时在低风险地区实现增长。总体目标依然是增长，只不过增长的区域有所不同。
Paul Newsome
Great. And I actually want to follow up on just that comment on the move into the non-coastal states, the result of states. I would've thought that mainly I just -- that you would have had a lot of these agents already signed up in the -- you have a pretty growing broad national Carrier Agency Distribution to begin with. Was there something in the process that kept you in earlier years from expanding earlier from an agent perspective or -- because I would've thought that today you pretty much have all those agents you'd want Outside of the coastal areas signed up?
很好。我还想追问一下关于向内陆低风险州扩展的问题。我原本以为你们全国的代理人网络已经很广了，很多代理人早就签约了。是不是以前在代理人拓展方面有什么障碍，导致你们没能更早进入这些州？因为我本以为现在你们在非沿海地区的代理人基本都已经到位了。
Tricia Griffith
It's our original and final purchase. ASI was more of a scarcity model. And so we had platinum agents that or appointed to sell auto and home. So we have a lot of opportunity to appoint more platinum agents in the non-volatile states. So that's what we're working on right now.
这是我们最初和最终的收购战略。ASI当时采取的是一种稀缺代理模式，我们有白金代理人可以同时销售车险和房屋险。所以在低风险州，我们还有很多机会去任命更多的白金代理人，这正是我们目前正在努力推进的方向。
Paul Newsome
Great. Appreciate it. Thank you.
很好，明白了，谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks.
谢谢。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis of Autonomous.
您的下一个问题来自Autonomous的Ryan Tunis。
Ryan Tunis
Hey. Thanks. Good morning. I just want -- I think, about ASI. It's been clearly, a successful deal from a growth standpoint, but the value proposition to agents has always seemingly been that. You guys would write good insurance in [Indiscernible] states like Florida and Texas.
你好，谢谢。早上好。我想问一下关于ASI的情况。从增长角度看，这笔收购显然很成功，但对代理人来说，ASI的价值主张一直是你们能在佛罗里达和德克萨斯这样的大州承保优质保险。
I guess what I'm trying to think about is -- we've seen good growth of the Robinson's. But most of the ASI book is in those two states. How are we going to continue to grow the Robinson's and kind of given there's geographic move and how our agents reacting to it in Florida and Texas?
我的疑问是，虽然Robinson客户群增长不错，但ASI的大部分业务还是集中在这两个州。考虑到你们正在调整地域布局，未来Robinson客户怎么继续增长？你们在佛罗里达和德州的代理人对此有何反应？
Tricia Griffith
Well, right now on our non-volatile states it's actually -- we have about 54%. So we have been expanding over the last several years to have less density in those states. We are purposely doing this to make sure that we can take care of the majority of that consumers. There's some like we said with the non-renewals than we can. And I think Insurance gets out. I think agents get bad because they also see the data. So for us to make sure we can protect those states, we need to make sure that we only have so much density in those states. So, for us, Florida and Texas are a big part, but still the non-volatile states are our majority of 54%. We're going to get those to 60% to 70% over the last couple -- the next couple of years. And when we look at that compared to the industry, we outperformed based on that state mix. Again, we got to change that state mix to make sure that flows through with everything.
目前我们的非高波动州业务占比大约54%。过去几年我们一直在降低佛罗里达和德州的业务密度，有意扩展到更多低风险州，以便服务更广泛的客户群。正如之前提到的，通过非续保等措施，我们也在调整结构。我觉得代理人也很清楚这些数据，所以对我们来说，控制某些州的业务密度是必须的。佛罗里达和德州仍然很重要，但非高波动州的占比已经是54%，未来几年我们希望提升到60%-70%。从行业对比看，这样的地域结构我们的表现更好。我们必须持续优化地域结构，确保整体业务表现。
Ryan Tunis
And then, I guess another foll -- sorry go ahead.
我还有一个后续问题……哦请继续。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah, I was going to say something.
好的，我想补充一点。
Ryan Tunis
I was going to say you referenced the majority of the book being in those two states sets. That's a little heavier than reality. And since we became owners of ARX/ASI, we have been diversifying the book. Now, it hasn't always been to the less volatile states, unfortunately, so we have grown in some other volatile states, think Hail Alley, but we have done a lot to diversify the book. We've just come to the more recent realization that we need to diversify more and faster.
其实你刚才说“大部分业务在那两州”有点夸张。自从我们收购ARX/ASI后，一直在努力实现业务多元化。虽然不是所有扩展都在低风险州，比如“冰雹带”等高风险州也有增长，但我们确实做了大量多元化工作。只是最近我们意识到需要更快、更大力度地推进多元化。
And I guess one other thing is -- I'm wondering if maybe you guys are overreacting just a little bit to the elevated costs Even this quarter, you guys have done a great job with reinsurance. Accounts are still not a significant part of your loss costs roll into the most insurers. I'm just wondering why this is really that big of a deal, especially because you have the reinsurance. I always thought that home was more -- not a loss leader per se, but the purpose of selling home was to sell well's business and that's been successful. So why abandon that, or why kind of move away from that simply because you have an extra couple of points of costs
还有一点，我想知道你们是不是对成本上升反应有点过度了？即使本季度你们的再保险做得很好，实际损失成本占比也并不高。我一直以为房屋险的目的不是亏本引流，而是带动车险等主业增长，这一战略也很成功。那为什么仅仅因为多了几个点的成本就要调整方向？
Tricia Griffith
Our purposes to have -- to having a home, specifically in the agency channel, was to grow more Robinson, but it was never going to be a loss leader. It was to make money on the home and make money on the auto bundle, have great claims service. So, that hasn't changed. So, I might say we're overreacting if we did this a year ago or 2 years ago, we continue to see quarter-over-quarter, where we're struggling to make money and cats is a big part of it. Reinsurance is great, but it doesn't come without a pretty heavy cause. So we want to make sure that we use our shareholders capital the right way. And we believe this is the best way to do it.
我们做房屋险，尤其是通过代理渠道，确实是为了带动Robinson客户增长，但我们从来没打算让房屋险变成亏本引流。我们的目标是房屋险和车险捆绑都要赚钱，还要有优质理赔服务。这一点没有变。如果我们是在一两年前就采取现在的措施，你可以说我们反应过度，但实际上我们已经连续好几个季度发现盈利困难，尤其是巨灾影响很大。再保险固然重要，但成本也很高。我们要确保用股东资金的方式最合理，我们相信当前的调整是最佳选择。
这个态度是正确的，协同效应往往是不真实的，即使有也说明决策的安全边际不够。
John Sauerland
We're just -- we're not only reacting to the results. We've been digging harder into the modeling and looking at our exposure for what they could best look like even after reinsurance. So while we are heavily reinsured and we're pretty [indiscernible] relative to our total insured value, especially those cut states, there are still potential scenarios. And that's what we're trying to manage. The tail risk is still there. We haven't seen it. But we want to be proactive in managing that, so that we don't see that down the road.
我们不仅仅是对结果做出反应。我们在建模和风险暴露分析上投入了更多精力，即使有再保险，也要评估极端情况下的风险。虽然我们在高风险州有很高的再保险覆盖，但仍然存在尾部风险，这正是我们想要主动管理的。我们不希望将来才遇到极端损失。
Pat Callahan
And one thing that I would add on top, John, and I think you mentioned it, but it's not about shrinking our book in the volatile states. It's about accelerating growth in the less volatile states while we have a period of time where we're investing in product segmentation, and as Tricia mentioned, product features that risk share with our customers. So don't think of it as abandoning the property business in any way, shape, or form. It's a temporary acceleration of growth in less volatile states until we get to a more comfortable balance between volatile and less volatile.
我还想补充一点，正如John提到的，这并不是要缩小高风险州的业务规模，而是要加速低风险州的增长。我们正在投入产品分层和风险共担等新特性。所以千万不要认为我们要放弃房屋险业务，这只是一个临时性的策略调整，等到高风险和低风险区域的平衡更合理后就会恢复。
Ryan Tunis
Got it. And then just one quick technical one. Of the disclosed auto rate increases that you give us, how much of that is coming from the monthly rating factors?
明白了。还有一个技术性小问题，你们公开披露的车险提价中，有多少是来自月度费率因子的调整？
Tricia Griffith
A small part of that.
只有很小一部分。
Ryan Tunis
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui of Barclays.
您的下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的Tracy Benguigui。
Tracy Benguigui
Good morning. Could you help me understand how it works in practice, the process you go through to request a rate increase in a filing in a new state because it doesn't seem to be that simple, as filing new. We've been seeing back-and-forth objections and iteration. So maybe just to walk through an example in Texas, it's our understanding that the public hearing on your previous set of filing has been postponed due to ongoing settlement discussions. In the meantime, it looks like you've submitted two new rate filings for your independent agent and direct business. So I guess where I'm getting at is how long should a filing be in a state of limbo way past the requested effective dates?
早上好。能否帮我实际解释一下你们在新州申请提价时的流程？因为看起来并不像“新申请”那么简单。我们看到监管方反复提出异议、来回沟通。比如以德州为例，我们了解到你们之前一轮申请的听证会因和解讨论被推迟，同时你们又提交了两份新的独立代理和直销渠道的提价申请。我的问题是，这种情况下，申请在超过预计生效日后还停滞多久是正常的？
Tricia Griffith
Great question. So we use Texas as a file-and-use state. So we put the files out there. We were able to put them on the street. They don't need to approve the filings. However, they can disapprove. They have not disapproved our filings and rather filed objections for that. Objections don't mean rejections of our rates. What that means is they want more information. So we've been working with the TDI on making sure supplement, all the information we can have to support our rate level. In fact, since April, we have done a 3-rate increases, one that's just a couple weeks ago. So, hitting into the fourth quarter, that totaled around 13%. So, we don't have our rate hearing.
实际上，德州是“申报即用”州，我们提交后可以直接执行，不需要等批准。但监管方有权否决，目前他们没有否决，只是提出异议。异议并不等于拒绝，只是要求我们补充更多数据。我们一直在和德州保险局（TDI）合作，补充所有能支持提价的数据。事实上，自四月以来，我们已做了三次提价，最近一次就在几周前，合计涨幅约13%。目前还没有正式听证会。
In fact, they issued a notice for our July filing, but we're sending because we're trying to work back-and-forth on making sure we do the right thing. Again, we had a good long-term relationship with the TDI and we believe they're rational and they want the data to make sure they do the right thing. And if you look at the filings, there are -- we're in good Company with many of our competitors where they're asking for more information. We want to be competitive, and open and available for the people of Texas. So every state is that it could have a little nuance to it, but that, hopefully, gives you a little bit of light of Texas. Objection is just the back-and-forth of data.
实际上他们对我们7月的申请发出了通知，但我们还在反复沟通，确保所有流程合规。我们和TDI长期合作关系良好，他们也很理性，只是需要足够的数据来支持决策。其实不仅我们，很多同行也面临类似的数据补充要求。我们希望对德州消费者保持竞争力和开放性。每个州的流程细节都略有不同，但希望这个德州的例子能让你了解，所谓“异议”其实就是数据来回沟通。
Tracy Benguigui
Is there an expiration of those back-and-forth discussions?
这些反复沟通有截止期限吗？
Pat Callahan
No. Typically, it will reset a clock. So some states will have a dimmer provision where there's not an objection filed, then it will be deemed approved after a certain date. But the ongoing especially in preserving great relationships with our regulators, if there's open questions we want to be transparent and provide them the data they need to do their jobs.
没有。一般来说，每次沟通都会“重置时钟”。有些州规定如果在一定时间内没有异议就视为批准，但如果有问题我们会持续配合，保持与监管方良好关系，确保他们有足够数据做决策。
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. And also, it looks like you're not the only one, and the insurers are making filing rate increases, but it's not uniform like the largest auto writer is lagging on those efforts. So, how can that uneven in like impact the progress of rate increased discussions with your regulators? And how do you think about increased shopping behavior?
我也注意到不仅你们，其他保险公司也在提价申请，但步调并不一致，比如最大的车险公司提价明显慢。你觉得这种不均衡会不会影响监管方的态度？以及你们怎么看待由此带来的客户比价行为？
Pat Callahan
Well the competitive environment that we operate in has some pretty different business models. So whether you have a mutual structure or a stock Company as two good examples, and as a result, there's different motivating factors, different profit objectives, different targets. So while we can't comment on specific area or action, we operate our business to deliver, as Tricia said, the $0.04, and grow as fast as we can. And that may mean that our growth is a little lumpier, but our profitability is generally pretty consistent.
我们所处的竞争环境里，不同公司有不同的商业模式，比如互助制和股份制，目标和利润诉求也不同。我们无法对别家具体做法评论，但我们始终以盈利和增长为目标，这可能导致我们的增长节奏有波动，但整体盈利能力很稳定。
Tracy Benguigui
Yeah. I guess, if I look at the last time the market tried to push rate increases, let's call 2015. It's just seemed like a while for the mutual to catch up. And many mutuals now are taking notice and maybe asking questions, but different Company by Company. But I think that may just present opportunities for shopping in general. I'm not trying to pick on one insurer. So how do you think about that in general?
我记得上一次全行业集体提价大概是2015年，当时互助公司反应慢一些。现在很多互助公司也注意到了，也在行动，但各家节奏不同。这可能会带来更多客户比价机会，你们怎么看？
Pat Callahan
We fully expect as rates go up that will create shopping and we enjoy. We believe a larger share of the shoppers than we do of that overall market. So generally, that's been good for us when there is a hardening market that create shopping. We benefit because we're broadly distributed and try to be available where, when and how consumers want to shop for and buy insurance.
我们完全预期到提价会带来更多客户比价，这对我们来说反而是好事。我们在“比价人群”中的市占率高于整体市场。当市场变得更“硬”，客户更频繁比较时，我们的广泛渠道和灵活服务就能吸引更多新客户。
有自信的说法。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah, but we're not going to change our model because this is in the model with some of the mutual for many years and the money they make is more on the investment side. We're still going to, with many of our competitors, we want to make a profit on the underwriting side. We want to grow as fast as we can, but we're not going to knowingly put a bunch of unprofitable business on our book. And that's why we're pulling back on advertising and during the rate increases. But again, like I said in a prior question, we believe this really positions us well for what we believe might happen as the market turns, and we'll be positioned where the shopping happens. We're going to get a lot of that business. And when that happens, we don't exactly know, but that's why we are positioning ourselves where we're at now based on the data that we see.
是的，但我们不会因为别家模式不同而改变自己的模式。互助公司很多利润来自投资，我们还是以承保盈利为主。我们会努力增长，但不会为了规模而承保亏损业务。这也是我们在提价期间减少广告投放的原因。正如我之前说的，我们相信当前的布局能让我们在市场转折时抓住更多新客户。虽然具体时点难以预测，但我们已根据数据提前做好准备。
坚持自己擅长的方式。
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. Thank you.
好的，谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Tracy.
谢谢，Tracy。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker of Bank of America.
您的下一个问题来自美国银行的Josh Shanker。
Josh Shanker
Yeah. Thank you for taking my question. Can we talk a little about in the transition when the business is underpriced and your competitors are raising price. Customers still are likely, they come to you maybe at a margin that's not entirely attractive. We can have a business that's going to come in the doors the next 3 to 6 to 9 months. Even without advertising, I think people will come to Progressive because of your funnel. How -- what's the stickiness of that business at the current price? How do you think about the margins on that business and what is the long-term value of the customers who are coming in the hair pin transition?
谢谢回答我的问题。我想讨论一下在行业提价过渡期，业务定价偏低、竞争对手纷纷涨价的情况下。客户还是可能涌向你们，但利润率未必理想。即使不打广告，凭你们的渠道和品牌，未来3-9个月还会有不少新客户进来。请问这些客户在当前价格下的留存性如何？你们怎么看这些客户的利润率和长期价值，尤其是在行业价格快速切换的这个阶段？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah, besides advertising, we really do try to have some tighter underwriting restrictions to not have as much of that business come on the books. Clearly, they are going to come on the books because timing is everything, and so we would get some of that business. Some of it will be underpriced, and I'll get it in renewal. And some of it, if it's overpriced and they shop, they will leave, and that will be okay, especially with what we believe is our industry-leading segmentation, especially if we have data from our snapshot. So it's hard to stay in an environment like this because there's so many variables happening. But clearly we'll get some business on the books based on our brand, and people want to come, and the pricing doesn't hit all at once in the industry.
除了广告之外，我们确实通过更严格的承保限制，尽量减少低利润客户进入。但不可避免还是会有一些业务进来，因为时机很关键。有些客户定价偏低，后续续保时会调整；有些客户如果定价高了，他们会流失，这没关系，特别是我们有行业领先的分层定价和数据能力（如Snapshot）。当前环境变量太多，很难精准预测，但凭借品牌和渠道，肯定会有新客户进来，毕竟行业提价并非同步发生。
Pat Callahan
Yeah. No, I think that's exactly it. Over the lifetime of these customers, we do expect to hit our targets, and we do price to a lifetime model. Additionally, there's value in selling other products to these customers and establishing a relationship with them now. Even if they may not be priced completely to target, it's not a bad thing for the long-term health and growth of the business.
没错。我们对这些客户的长期价值有信心，定价也是基于全生命周期模型。即使部分客户短期利润率不理想，但未来可以交叉销售更多产品，建立长期关系。长期来看，这对业务健康和增长是有益的。
Josh Shanker
And without emphasizing it too much, the Sams, I guess, are going to be looking for the best prices. It feels like you guys are about 6 months ahead of the industry in adjusting your price Can the Sams find a provider with a smaller funnel than Progressive who hasn't raised their price yet, or are you still going to pick up a fairly good share of Sams regardless even while you're raising prices because your customer acquisition capabilities are so strong?
我想再追问一下，像“Sams”这类极度看重价格的客户，你们似乎比行业提前6个月提价。这些客户会不会去找那些还没涨价的小公司？还是说即使你们涨价，也能凭强大的获客能力继续吸引不少Sams？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah, I think Sams will be able to find a price out there. In fact, I talked a little bit about new business tests being down and they're down mostly in Sams because they're one, inconsistently insured and they frequently shop because it is really about price. So yeah, I think they'll find it and then when the --the Sams is very much about price. So as those companies raise their rates, they'll come back to us. At that point, we'll be competitively priced to make a lifetime 96 on those Sams.
是的，Sams这类客户确实会去市场上找最低价。我们新业务量下降主要也是因为Sams减少了投保，他们不稳定、频繁比价，非常注重价格。他们现在可能会去其他还没提价的小公司，但等那些公司也涨价后，他们还会回到我们这里。届时我们会有有竞争力的定价，确保长期利润率目标。
这个回答够简单够直白。
Josh Shanker
Ma'am, thank you very much.
谢谢您！
Tricia Griffith
Thanks.
谢谢。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields of KBW.
您的下一个问题来自KBW的Meyer Shields。
Meyer Shields
Thanks. Tricia, I can't disagree with your viewpoint of the regulators as being rational, but sometimes it takes a lot longer than we would hope for that to manifest itself. So I was hoping you could clarify the difference between the indicated rate increases that we would infer from frequency and severity trends and the 5% that you've gotten so far. How much of that is regulatory friction and how much of that is Progressive slowing the increases to maintain retention?
谢谢。Tricia，我同意你说监管机构总体理性，但有时他们的反应比我们预期慢得多。能否澄清一下，从理赔频率和严重程度趋势推算的“应提价幅度”与目前实际已获得的5%涨幅之间的差异，究竟有多大是因为监管摩擦，又有多少是你们主动放缓提价以维持客户留存？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah, we're not trying to slow the increases for retention. If we slow increases, it's because, like I talked about in California, the mechanism is more backward-looking than what we're seeing in the claims. So we will try to get the amount of rate we think we needed that time against small bites of the apple. And as we've seen more data, we'll either won't raise rates, or like last year, or reduced rates, or raise them a little bit more. But the regulator timing is really an individual conversation we're having across the country. I gave a couple of examples in Texas and California. California going to take a little bit longer, so we are going to try to reduce our growth there. But I think it's really where we priced our indications and we look at that prospectively.
我们并不是为了留存而主动放慢提价。如果我们提价节奏慢，通常是因为像加州那样，监管机制更偏向回溯历史，而不是反映当前赔付趋势。所以我们会“少量多次”地申请提价，拿到我们认为当下需要的幅度。数据变化后，有时甚至会降价或只小幅再涨。监管审批的进度因州而异，比如德州和加州的例子。加州审批慢，我们也会相应放缓增长节奏。总体还是以我们对未来趋势的判断来定价。
Pat Callahan
Yeah. The one thing I would add is there's just acceleration in our rate takes. So the 5% of the year-to-date number and as Tricia mentioned in Q3, in half the country, we increased rates about 6% cut 3 in that period. So there's 6 months of the year before we saw the real frequency recovery that we were still lowering rates, frankly. And that's factored in there.
补充一点，其实我们的提价动作正在加速。年初到现在的平均涨幅是5%，但三季度在全国一半地区，我们单季就涨了6%。而且今年上半年，理赔频率恢复之前，我们实际上还在降价，这也影响了整体数字。
Meyer Shields
Okay. And that's pricing compared to, I guess, end of year 2020?
所以你们的定价基准是2020年底吗？
Pat Callahan
Correct.
没错。
Meyer Shields
Okay. Second question. Can you talk about what the catastrophe loss exposure in homeowners means for small commercial property?
第二个问题，住宅险的灾害损失风险对小型商业财产险有何启示？
Jochen Schunter
Yeah. The -- so our small commercial property book is very, very small at this juncture. While we are trying to grow our business owner's policy program. And I think we're now in 29 states --
我们的商业财产险业务目前规模非常小，虽然我们正在扩展BOP（业主险）项目，现在应该覆盖了29个州——
Tricia Griffith
31 now.
现在是31个州。
Jochen Schunter
31 now. Thank you.
31个州，谢谢补充。
Tricia Griffith
29, we've been [Indiscernible] at the cue, it's 31 by the time we have this meeting.
刚才还说29，现在已经是31了。
Jochen Schunter
Yeah. Our property exposure at this juncture, Commercial Lines is very minimal. We aspire to have far bigger share of that business. And at that point, you're right, it will be something we need to manage proactively. At this juncture, it's really not material.
目前我们的商业财产险风险敞口极小。未来我们希望大幅扩展，到那时确实需要积极管理灾害风险。但现阶段影响不大。
Meyer Shields
Okay, perfect. Thanks so much.
好的，明白了，谢谢！
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan of Wells Fargo.
您的下一个问题来自富国银行的Elyse Greenspan。
Elyse Greenspan
Hi, thanks. Good morning. My question is going back to the Personal Auto rating discussion. You just said you talked around 6 points of rate in the third quarter. That still does put you below where frequency and severity are on a combined basis. Tricia, I think earlier in the call, you said that it would probably take more than 3 to 6 months for all these rate increases to pull through the system. So, when you make that comment, are you thinking that you will at some point get the approvals and get rates in excess of trends or are you also assuming maybe that severity, which is a bit elevated and impacted by the supply chain issues over that time period, might improve, or maybe it's a combination of both?
您好，谢谢。我的问题回到个人车险定价。你们三季度加价约6个百分点，但这和理赔频率、严重程度叠加后的涨幅相比还是低一些。Tricia，你之前说全部提价效果完全反映到系统可能需要3-6个月以上。你这话的意思是你们预计未来能获批更高的提价，最终超越赔付趋势，还是说你们也假设未来理赔严重程度（现在受供应链影响偏高）会有所改善，或者两者兼有？
Tricia Griffith
Well, I would say I'll let Pat add what he has. And we will look at prospective need for rate increase, and that's why we're following the trend so closely. And again, it's so volatile based on what's been happening and it could change back and forth. So we'll continue to get that. And we will likely, at this point, if trends continue, we'll see that we'll need even more rate in the fourth quarter and probably into Q1.
我先说一下，然后让Pat补充。我们会持续关注未来提价的需求，这也是我们密切跟踪趋势的原因。现在的趋势很波动，随时可能变化。所以我们会持续动态调整。如果目前的趋势延续下去，四季度甚至明年一季度我们还需要进一步提价。
Pat Callahan
Yeah. We price to our expected cost. And as far out as we can see, the effective date of our revision or the average date of that revision, we're setting our prices based on where we expect trend to be. If trend continues to accelerate, we'll continue to take rate. If trend ameliorates, we'll slow our rate take and not file for additional increases.
我们定价是基于预期成本。每次提价生效日，我们都会根据对未来趋势的判断来设定价格。如果赔付趋势继续加速，我们会继续提价；如果趋势改善，就会放缓提价甚至不再申请加价。
Tricia Griffith
That's why it's important to be really nimble. And that's why I often talk about our pricing group and what we're able to get to really quickly and decisively. And if you couldn't do that, you might have to take way more rate because it's going to be a big issue to do that. But we're able to be so nimble that we can do that. Watch trends and if we need a little bit more or not, we can act accordingly.
这也是我们为什么强调灵活性。我们的定价团队可以非常迅速、果断地调整。如果做不到这一点，可能就得一次性大幅提价，这对业务会有很大冲击。我们现在能做到小步快跑，随时根据趋势微调。
Pat Callahan
And that's the key for individual consumers, right? That they get a small increase at renewal which doesn't prompt them to shop as opposed to somebody that waits. And if they wait 6 months or 12 months. And at that point if 8 points or rate or something higher, it creates shopping in your book that's just not healthy, frankly, for the health of the overall book.
对客户来说，小幅多次提价比一次性大幅提价要好。这样客户续保时只会感受到小幅上涨，不容易流失。如果等半年或一年再一次性大幅提价，客户流失和比价行为会大增，这对整体业务健康不利。
Elyse Greenspan
And then my second question, sorry, in terms of capital management, you guys shifted to quarterly dividend and going back a few years ago. And then you have still been paying a special dividend at the end of most years. This year, obviously, growth is a little lighter given the rate you're taking. And also, we've seen profitability be impacted by loss trends in auto and cats in home. Is a prospect for a special dividend still on the table, or how should we think about capital return for this year?
第二个问题，关于资本管理。你们几年前改成季度分红，但大多数年份年底还会发特别股息。今年因为提价和增长放缓，车险赔付和住宅灾害损失也影响了利润，请问今年还有可能发特别股息吗？我们应该如何看待今年的资本回报？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. So we're meeting with the Board in December and they will ultimately make the decision on the variable dividend and what we would intend to give throughout the year. We look at all the inputs like you suggest to determine what makes sense. And that's one of the reasons why we changed the dividend policy several years ago because it can from a timing perspective be different from what we're seeing internally, from the gain share program that we aligned it with several years ago. So we're working with the board, and ultimately, it will be their decision in December on how much they believe the variable dividend will be up for this year.
我们会在12月与董事会讨论，最终由董事会决定今年是否发放可变股息以及全年分红水平。我们会综合你提到的所有因素来判断。几年前我们改政策，也是考虑到分红时点和公司内部盈利情况（比如gain share计划）可能不一致。最终还是要董事会12月拍板决定今年的特别分红额度。
Elyse Greenspan
Okay. Thanks for the color.
好的，谢谢解答。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Elyse.
谢谢，Elyse。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith of UBS.
您的下一个问题来自瑞银的Brian Meredith。
Brian Meredith
Thanks, Trish. Back to personal auto. Just quickly here. So what is your expectation for claim severity going forward? Do you expect this inflationary environment to persist for a while? So when you're thinking about filing rates, are you assuming these elevated severity levels will continue?
谢谢，Trish。回到个人车险。请问你们对未来理赔严重程度（severity）的预期如何？你们认为这种通胀环境还会持续吗？你们在申请提价时，是不是假设高企的理赔严重程度会持续？
Tricia Griffith
Well, we're watching closely because there's so much in play. So obviously if you look at the severity on collision, it's up 14%. And you've been watching what has happened. And as an example was the Manheim Used Car Index. I mean, even the first few weeks of October, it was up 8% over September. And then if you look at October 2020 to October 2021, it was up 37%. And then pre-pandemic to now, up over 50%. Some of those huge increases we've never seen, so we'll have to watch and see what happens with the supply of chips. Does that open up the supply/demand of new cars and used parts? We do have -- we're off a little bit with frequency on salvage returns.
我们非常密切关注，因为影响因素很多。比如碰撞险的理赔严重程度同比涨了14%。以Manheim二手车指数为例，10月头几周环比9月又涨了8%；2020年10月至2021年10月涨了37%；疫情前至今涨了50%以上。这种涨幅前所未见。我们要继续观察芯片供应是否改善，如果新车和零件供应缓解，可能会影响价格。我们在残值回收上频率略有下降。
So we're going to watch that closely. What we haven't seen yet in body shops are labor rates increasing. They've been relatively flat. We'll watch that, especially when you think about talent in that area. And we have seen the labor -- I mean, parts prices up right around 5%. Some of that's inflation, and some of that is just inherently expensive parts and more expensive vehicles. So those are the things we're watching, and we have trend meetings all the time, really closely to see if this sort of inflation is transitory or baked into our system.
车身维修工时费目前还没见涨，还是比较平稳，但我们也会关注相关人才市场。零件价格大概涨了5%，一部分是通胀，一部分是车辆和零件本身越来越贵。我们会持续开趋势会议，密切跟踪这些变化，判断这种通胀是暂时性的还是已经固化在成本结构里。
Brian Meredith
Okay. It has to be determined I guess.
明白，还需要继续观察。
Tricia Griffith
Yes.
是的。
Brian Meredith
And then I guess my next question, maybe just to simplify this a little bit. If I look back historically, it's generally taken you all about 6 to 9 months to get enough rate for margins to return to, call it, more normalized levels. Look at '12, it happened that way, '16 happened that way. Is there anything different this time around that we should expect that you'll be able to get enough rate to the system to become rate adequate in the next 6 to 9 months?
下一个问题，简单一点。历史上你们通常花6到9个月就能把提价反映到利润率恢复正常，比如2012年、2016年都是这样。这一次你们预计6到9个月内能达到足够的提价水平，实现费率充足吗？有没有什么不同的地方？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah, I think '16 was a little bit different because most of the rate we needed was on the commercial side and those are 12-month policies. I think what we've been talking about a lot in this call was regulatory, just some of the objections. It might take a little longer with those dates as we provide more data. But we expect to, as we have in the past, be in that position in that 6-month timeframe, hopefully sooner.
2016年其实有点不同，因为那次主要是商险需要提价，而且商险保单周期是12个月。这次主要是监管审批，一些州有异议，我们要补充数据，所以可能会比以前慢一点。但我们还是希望像过去一样，大约6个月内能达到目标，甚至可能更快。
Brian Meredith
Great. Thank you.
很好，谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui of Barclays.
接下来您的问题来自巴克莱的特雷西·本吉吉的连线。
Tracy Benguigui
Thank you. Thank you for taking another question. Very helpful context to hear that you want to take multiple bites of the apple and be agile as you're thinking about future rate increases, but I'm just wondering, as you're thinking about it, is that 6% that you took in the third quarter? Is that in your view, more of maintaining where you are on loss trend or that be getting more into your long-term combined ratio target similar on improvement of margin?
谢谢。感谢您再次回答提问。听到您希望分多次调整费率，并在考虑未来加价时保持敏捷，这为我们提供了非常有用的背景信息。不过我想知道，当您这么考虑时，您在第三季度采取的那6%的加价，您认为更多是为了保持当前的亏损趋势，还是更倾向于朝着您长期合并比率目标以及提升利润率的方向前进？
Tricia Griffith
It's on improvement of margins and where we're at with the data we have now that we do look at those prospectively but if we believe we need more and I think the question that Brian just asked makes a lot of sense if we're watching some of the inflationary trends and will launch those closely as we believe we will need those and we'll get more.
这是为了提升利润率，并基于我们目前掌握的数据，对这些加价进行前瞻性地评估；如果我们认为还需要更多加价的话，我们会启动相应的举措。我认为刚才布莱恩提的那个问题非常有道理，因为如果我们关注某些通胀趋势，就会密切推出更多加价，一旦认为有必要，我们会继续加价并获得更多。
John Sauerland
I want to offer -- one point of clarification and a little more color. One is that we've heard twice people say we took 6 points of rate in the third quarter. We actually took 3 in our Personal Auto. We took 6 points in about half the country, which gets you to 3 -- 5 year-to-date. And we're going to continue to take rates. So whenever you're taking rate, you are either or both, catching up from what you didn't see when you first priced or you’re pricing for the future. So in a perfect world you're just always pricing for the future, and your previous pricing was perfect. That's normally not the case.
我想做一个澄清并补充一些细节。我们听到两次有人说我们在第三季度加价了6个百分点。事实上，我们在个人车险业务中只加了3个百分点；在全国大约一半地区加了6个百分点，这样年初至今的总加价就是3到5个百分点。我们会继续加价。因此，无论何时加价，都是在弥补最初定价时未考虑到的因素，或是为了未来的定价。在理想情况下，您始终只为未来定价，而之前的定价也是完美的。但实际情况通常不是这样。
You're either a little higher or a little low on your previous pricing. So some of that adjustment is catching up in this environment. It's catching up, frankly. But it is also looking forward as to what we believe frequency and severity trends will be for the coming life of that rate revision be at 6, 12 months. So I just wanted to clarify on what we've taken year-to-date and we say it is -- to some degree catching up, but to a large degree, ensuring we have a very adequate rates on the street going into 2022, so that we're very confident to turn on more advertising and other growth levers.
您之前的定价要么略高，要么略低。因此，在当前环境下，其中一些加价是在进行补偿，坦率地说，这是在“补课”。但同时，我们也在展望未来，评估频次和严重程度趋势在该加价生效后的6至12个月内会如何变化。所以我只是想澄清我们年初至今采取的加价——在某种程度上是补偿，但在很大程度上是为了确保在进入2022年时市场上的费率非常充足，从而让我们有信心启动更多广告和其他增长杠杆。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah, I would add that -- so do I. I gave the percentages of what happened with used cars and, obviously, the things that would happen with supply chain. I think the industry overall, missed that because who would have ever thought used parts will go up to that extent. So that -- those are just some of the things we're catching up, and Gary, that 6% was in 20 states? Yes.
是的，我也想补充一点。我提供了二手车相关的加价百分比，显然还有供应链方面会出现的一些情况。我认为整个行业都忽视了这一点——毕竟谁能想到二手零件的价格会涨到那种程度。所以这些只是我们在补偿中的一部分内容。加里，那6%的加价是在20个州进行的吗？是的。
Tracy Benguigui
Yes. Thank you. I recognize 20 states. Appreciate it. Thank you.
是的。谢谢。我知道是在20个州。感谢。谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you.
谢谢。
Doug Constantine
We've exhausted our scheduled time, and so that concludes our event. Deshundra (ph), I will hand the call back over to you for closing scripts.
我们的预定时间已用完，本次活动到此结束。德尚德拉（音），我将把电话交回给您进行结束发言。
Operator
That concludes the Progressive Corporation's third-quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.
至此，本公司第三季度投资者活动圆满结束。活动重播信息将在接下来一年内发布于本公司投资者关系网站。您现在可以挂断电话。
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The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call August 6, 2024 9:30 AM ET 进步公司（纽约证券交易所代码：PGR）2024 年第二季度财报电话会议 2024 年 8 月 6 日 上午 9:30（东部时间） Company Participants 公司参与者 Doug Constantine - Director, Investor Relations 道格·康斯坦丁 - ...2025-03-04 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call March 4, 2025 9:30 AM ET Company Participants Douglas Constantine - Director of Investor Relations Tricia Griffith - President and Chief Executive Officer John Murphy - President ...2022-05-03 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call May 3, 2022 9:30 AM ET Progressive Corporation（纽约证券交易所：PGR）2022 年第一季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2022 年 5 月 3 日上午 9:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Tricia Griffith – President and Chief ...2025-05-06 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call May 6, 2025 9:30 AM ET Company Participants Douglas Constantine - Director, IR Tricia Griffith - President and CEO Patrick Callahan - President, Personal Lines John Murphy - ...