2022-02-25 Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) Q4 2021 Earnings Conference Call February 25, 2022 1:00 PM ET
西方石油公司 (纽约证券交易所：OXY) 2021 年第四季度财报电话会议 2022 年 2 月 25 日下午 1:00（东部时间）
Company Participants 公司参与者
Jeff Alvarez - Vice President of Investor Relations
杰夫·阿尔瓦雷斯 - 投资者关系副总裁
Vicki Hollub - President & Chief Executive Officer
维基·霍卢布 - 总裁兼首席执行官
Rob Peterson - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
罗伯·彼得森 - 高级副总裁兼首席财务官
Ken Dillon - President, International Oil and Gas Operations
肯·迪伦 - 国际石油和天然气业务总裁
Richard Jackson - President, Operations, U.S. Onshore Resources and Carbon Management
理查德·杰克逊 - 总裁，美国陆上资源与碳管理部
Conference Call Participants
会议电话参与者
Jeanine Wai - Barclays 珍妮娜·韦 - 巴克莱
Phil Gresh - JPMorgan 菲尔·格雷什 - 摩根大通
Doug Leggate - Bank of America
道格·莱格特 - 美国银行
Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs
尼尔·梅塔 - 高盛
Matt Portillo - TPH 马特·波蒂略 - TPH
Neal Dingmann - Truist Securities
尼尔·丁曼 - Truist 证券
David Deckelbaum - Cowen 大卫·德克尔鲍姆 - 考恩
Raphaël DuBois - Societe Generale
拉斐尔·杜布瓦 - 法国巴黎银行
Operator 操作员
Good afternoon, and welcome to Occidental's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask question. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.
下午好，欢迎参加西方石油公司 2021 年第四季度财报电话会议。所有参与者将处于仅听模式。[操作员说明] 在今天的演讲结束后，将有机会提问。[操作员说明] 请注意，此活动正在录音。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Alvarez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
我现在想把会议交给投资者关系副总裁杰夫·阿尔瓦雷斯。请继续。
Jeff Alvarez 杰夫·阿尔瓦雷斯
Thank you, Rocco. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in Occidental's Fourth quarter 2021 Conference Call. On the call with us today are Vicki Hollub, President and Chief Executive Officer; Rob Peterson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Ken Dillon, President, International Oil and Gas Operations; and Richard Jackson, President, Operations, U.S. Onshore Resources and Carbon Management.
谢谢你，罗科。大家下午好，感谢大家参加西方石油公司 2021 年第四季度的电话会议。今天与我们通话的有：总裁兼首席执行官维基·霍拉布，资深副总裁兼首席财务官罗布·彼得森，国际石油和天然气业务总裁肯·迪伦，以及美国陆上资源和碳管理业务总裁理查德·杰克逊。
This afternoon, we will refer to slides available on the Investors section of our website. The presentation includes a cautionary statement on Slide 2 regarding forward-looking statements that will be made on the call this afternoon.
今天下午，我们将参考我们网站投资者部分提供的幻灯片。演示文稿在第二张幻灯片中包含了一项关于今天下午电话会议中将作出的前瞻性声明的警示性声明。
I'll now turn the call over to Vicki. Vicki, please go ahead.
我现在把电话交给维基。维基，请继续。
Vicki Hollub
Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. The fourth quarter of 2021 was a fitting year -- a fitting way to end the year where Oxy's operational and financial performance advanced from strong to stronger. Our focus on consistently delivering outstanding operational results, combined with our steadfast dedication and patience in improving our balance sheet, has positioned us to begin increasing the amount of capital returned to shareholders. Our new shareholder return framework, which we will detail today, includes a dividend that is sustainable in a low price environment. We are pleased to implement this new framework, beginning with an increase in the quarterly common dividend to $0.13 per share.
谢谢 Jeff，大家下午好。2021 年第四季度是为这一年画上完美句号的方式——OXY 的运营与财务表现从强劲迈向更强劲。我们持续专注于交付卓越的运营成果，同时坚定不移、耐心推进资产负债表的改善，这使我们已具备条件，开始提高向股东返还的资本规模。我们今天将详细介绍的新股东回报框架，包含一项在低油价环境下仍可持续的股息安排。我们很高兴推出这一新框架，并以将季度普通股股息提高至每股 0.13 美元作为开端。
The position of strength that we are in today stems from our team's hard work and accomplishments last year. Throughout 2021, we strived tirelessly to improve our already exceptional operational performance. We capitalized on efficiency improvements by embedding innovative techniques across our operations. Our focus on learning, implementing change, where needed, and maximizing opportunities for improvement enabled us to accelerate time to market for our products while generating notable capital saving. We will continue to maximize operational efficiencies in 2022 by executing on the capital plan that invest in our highest-return assets to generate long-term sustainable free cash flow.
我们今天所处的强势地位，源于团队去年的辛勤付出与卓越成果。2021 年全年，我们不懈努力，持续提升本已出色的运营表现。我们通过将创新技术深度嵌入各项业务，将效率改善切实转化为成果。专注于学习、在必要时推动变革、最大化改进机会，使我们得以加快产品上市速度，同时实现显著的资本节约。2022 年，我们将继续通过执行聚焦于最高回报资产的资本计划，最大化运营效率，以创造长期可持续的自由现金流。
This afternoon, I will begin by covering our fourth quarter and full year 2021 highlights and achievements, before detailing our 2022 capital budget. Rob and I will then discuss our shareholder return framework, and Rob will provide guidance for the first quarter and year ahead.
今天下午，我将首先介绍第四季度及 2021 年全年的亮点与成就，随后详述我们的 2022 年资本预算。之后，Rob 和我将共同阐述股东回报框架，Rob 也将就第一季度及全年前景提供指引。
Before turning to Q&A at the end, I will provide a preview of the Low Carbon Ventures investor update that we have planned for next month.
在最后的问答环节之前，我还将就我们计划于下月举行的低碳业务投资者更新会议作一预告。
Now to talk about delivering cash flow priorities. Those who have followed us at Oxy's journey over the past several quarters know that our cash flow priorities have centered around derisking our balance sheet and reducing debt. We diligently delivered on these cash flow priorities throughout 2021, including the repayment of approximately $6.7 billion of debt. We now expect that our net debt will be below $25 billion by the end of the first quarter of 2022, which will mark a change in how excess cash flow will be allocated going forward.
现在谈谈现金流优先级的落实情况。持续关注 OXY 过去几个季度历程的投资者都清楚，我们的现金流优先级始终围绕降低资产负债表风险和削减债务展开。2021 年全年，我们切实兑现了这些现金流优先级承诺，包括偿还约 67 亿美元债务。我们目前预计，净债务将于 2022 年第一季度末降至 250 亿美元以下，这将标志着未来超额现金流配置方式的转变。
Before I detail our updated cash flow priorities and shareholder return framework, I would like to first touch on a few of the many operational and financial successes that enabled us to reach this significant turning point.
在详述更新后的现金流优先级和股东回报框架之前，我想先回顾几项使我们得以抵达这一重要转折点的运营与财务成就。
2021 was a year of continuous operational improvements, which drove record free cash flow generation, rapid debt reduction and a return to profitability. One of Oxy's core strength is our ability to develop assets in a way that efficiently maximizes production and recovery while generating significant cash flow and that is just what we did in 2021. Multiple drilling and completion records were set across our domestic and international businesses as our production for the year averaged 1.167 million BOE per day. That's 27,000 BOE per day higher than our initial guidance.
2021 年是持续运营改善的一年，这推动自由现金流创历史纪录、债务快速削减，并实现了盈利回归。OXY 的核心优势之一，在于我们能够以高效最大化产量和采收率的方式开发资产，同时创造显著的现金流——2021 年我们正是这样做的。国内外各项业务均创下了多项钻井和完井纪录，全年产量平均达到每日 116.7 万桶油当量，比初始指引高出每日 2.7 万桶油当量。
2021 was also a more conventional year in terms of commodity prices, operations and planning, all of which was helpful in providing a reserve update that reflects a more normalized price environment. Our reserves for year-end 2021 increased to 3.5 billion BOE, representing a reserve replacement ratio of 241%. Our reserves position means that we have a vast supply of low breakeven projects and inventory available. We have included updated inventory information for our U.S. onshore operations in the appendix to this presentation.
2021 年在大宗商品价格、运营和规划方面也是相对正常化的一年，这有助于提供一份反映更为正常化价格环境的储量更新。2021 年底，我们的储量增至 35 亿桶油当量，储量替代率达到 241%。我们的储量状况意味着，我们拥有大量低盈亏平衡点项目和待开发库存。我们在本次演示文稿的附录中附上了美国陆上业务的最新库存信息。
Over the last year, we significantly advanced our commitments toward a low-carbon future. We are proud to be one of only a few oil and gas companies with net-zero goals that are aligned with the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree Celsius pathway. In December, Oxy became the first U.S. upstream oil and gas company to enter into a sustainability-linked revolving credit facility, which includes absolute reductions in our combined Scopes 1 and 2 CO2 equivalent emissions as the key performance indicator. We set additional interim emission targets to further refine our net-zero pathway, including a short-term target to reduce our CO2 equivalent emissions to approximately 3.7 million metric tons per year below our 2021 level and to accomplish that by 2024.
过去一年，我们在迈向低碳未来方面取得了显著进展。我们自豪地成为少数几家净零目标与《巴黎协定》1.5 摄氏度路径相契合的油气公司之一。12 月，OXY 成为美国首家签订可持续发展挂钩循环信贷协议的上游油气公司，该协议以范围一和范围二合并 CO₂ 当量排放的绝对减少量作为关键绩效指标。我们制定了额外的阶段性减排目标，以进一步完善净零路径，包括一项近期目标：到 2024 年将 CO₂ 当量排放量较 2021 年水平减少约 370 万公吨/年。
We set a medium-term target to facilitate the geologic storage or use of 25 million metric tons per year of CO2 and Oxy value chain by 2032. We also endorsed the Methane Guiding Principles and Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0, a Climate and Clean Air Coalition initiative led by the United Nations Environment program. This is consistent with our commitment to enhance methane emissions reporting and reducing those emissions. Our journey towards net zero is underway, and we look forward to discussing in greater detail at our Low Carbon Ventures Investor Day next month.
我们设定了一项中期目标：到 2032 年，在 OXY 价值链中实现每年 2,500 万公吨 CO₂ 的地质封存或利用。我们还签署了《甲烷指导原则》和由联合国环境规划署主导的"气候与清洁空气联盟"旗下的"油气甲烷合作伙伴关系 2.0"。这与我们强化甲烷排放报告、减少甲烷排放的承诺一脉相承。我们的净零之路已经启程，期待在下月举行的低碳业务投资者日上与大家深入探讨。
还算正常，先谈减少融资，再谈低碳，这应该还没什么经济效益的项目。
Now the fourth quarter highlights. The strong operational and financial performance that we delivered throughout last year continued in the fourth quarter. We set a fourth consecutive record for quarterly free cash flow generation before working capital, which contributed to generating our highest-ever annual level of free cash flow in 2021. We continue to apply free cash flow towards reducing debt and strengthening our balance sheet, repaying an additional $2.2 billion of debt in the fourth quarter.
现在介绍第四季度亮点。我们全年的强劲运营与财务表现在第四季度得以延续。本季度我们再度刷新营运资本前季度自由现金流纪录，创下连续第四个季度破纪录，推动 2021 年全年自由现金流达到历史最高水平。我们持续将自由现金流用于偿债和强化资产负债表，第四季度额外偿还了 22 亿美元债务。
Operationally, all three business segments excelled in driving our robust financial performance, OxyChem delivered record earnings for the second consecutive quarter as performance throughout the year culminated in 2021 being OxyChem's strongest in over 30 years. The fourth quarter, which is typically lower due to seasonality, even exceeded the record third quarter. And in our Oil and Gas segment, our Permian, Rockies and Oman teams set new operational records and efficiency benchmarks in the fourth quarter, further improving on their third quarter record.
在运营层面，三大业务板块均表现卓越，共同驱动了我们强劲的财务业绩。OxyChem 连续第二个季度创下盈利纪录，全年表现斐然，使 2021 年成为 OxyChem 逾 30 年来最强的一年。第四季度虽受季节性因素影响通常较为疲软，却仍超越了创纪录的第三季度。在油气板块，Permian、Rockies 和阿曼团队在第四季度再创运营纪录和效率标杆，在第三季度纪录的基础上进一步精进。
Our midstream business outperformed by maximizing gas margins during the fourth quarter while short-term opportunities in the commodity markets are difficult to predict, our midstream team excels at finding and taking full advantage of such opportunities when they arise.
第四季度，我们的中游业务通过最大化天然气利润率实现了超预期表现。尽管大宗商品市场的短期机会难以预测，但我们的中游团队擅长在机会出现时及时发现并充分把握。
Now I'm pleased to say that our fourth quarter results continued to demonstrate the commitment of all of our employees, no matter their position or location, to find ways to further create value by lowering costs, improving efficiencies and maximizing recoveries. They truly are driving our strong financial results and providing a solid foundation for free cash flow generation.
我很高兴地说，第四季度的业绩再次印证了全体员工的共同承诺——无论身处何职、身在何处，每一位员工都在致力于通过降低成本、提升效率、最大化采收率来持续创造价值。正是他们，真正驱动着我们强劲的财务成果，并为自由现金流的持续生成奠定了坚实基础。
Now on to 2021 oil and gas operational excellence. On each of our last several calls, I've enjoyed highlighting the many operational achievements our teams continuously deliver. The magnitude of these achievements is striking when viewed on a combined basis over the last year. We established record drilling cycle times in the Gulf Mexico, the Permian, Rockies and in Oman, and set new efficiency benchmarks across our portfolio in 2021. We intend to maintain our focus on continuous improvement in the year ahead as we work to maximize the value our portfolio can generate for shareholders.
现在介绍 2021 年油气业务的卓越运营表现。在过去几次电话会议上，我都很乐于重点介绍团队持续交付的众多运营成就。当把过去一年的成果综合来看时，这些成就的分量令人印象深刻。2021 年，我们在墨西哥湾、Permian、Rockies 和阿曼均创下了钻井周期时间纪录，并在整个资产组合中树立了新的效率标杆。展望新的一年，我们将继续专注于持续改进，努力最大化资产组合为股东创造的价值。
Now our 2022 capital plan. Our 2022 capital plan invest in cash flow longevity while building on the capital intensity leadership we demonstrated in 2021. We have sized our capital plan to sustain production in 2022 at 1.155 million BOE per day, while investing in high-return projects that will provide cash flow stability throughout the cycle. We have also incorporated an expectation for inflation and a capital range to reflect the potential for fluctuations in our third-party-operated assets and our low-carbon opportunities during the year.
现在介绍 2022 年资本计划。我们的 2022 年资本计划旨在投资于现金流的持久性，同时在 2021 年所展现的资本效率领先优势基础上继续精进。我们将资本计划规模定为维持 2022 年每日 115.5 万桶油当量的产量，同时投资于能够在整个周期内提供现金流稳定性的高回报项目。我们还纳入了对通胀的预期，并设置了资本区间，以反映第三方运营资产及全年低碳业务机会可能出现的波动。
Our sustaining capital, which we define as the capital required to sustain production in the $40 WTI environment over a multiyear period, remains industry-leading. Our multiyear sustaining capital is expected to increase from our 2021 capital budget of $2.9 billion, the reduced inventory of drilling uncompleted wells and additional investment in our Gulf of Mexico and EOR assets to optimize the long-term productivity of our reservoirs and facilities. If the macro environment requires spending below our multiyear sustaining capital, we have the ability to reduce it further and hold production flat for shorter periods of time as we've demonstrated.
我们将维持性资本定义为在 WTI 40 美元价格环境下多年期维持产量所需的资本，这一水平仍处于行业领先地位。我们的多年期维持性资本预计将较 2021 年 29 亿美元的资本预算有所提升，原因在于已钻未完井库存的减少，以及对墨西哥湾和 EOR 资产的额外投入——这些投入旨在优化储层和设施的长期产能。如果宏观环境需要将支出压缩至多年期维持性资本以下，我们有能力进一步削减并在较短时期内维持产量不变，这一点我们已有所验证。
We're also investing in attractive mid-cycle projects that will provide cash flow stability through the cycle in future years. For example, these projects include the Al Hosn expansion, which began last year. And OxyChem is in the process of completing a seed study to modernize certain Gulf Coast for alkali assets from diaphram to membrane technology.
我们还在投资具有吸引力的中周期项目，这些项目将在未来几年为整个周期提供现金流稳定性。例如，这些项目包括去年启动的 Al Hosn 扩建工程，以及 OxyChem 正在推进的前期研究——旨在将部分墨西哥湾沿岸氯碱资产从隔膜法升级为膜法技术。
Our capital plan also includes investments to advance our net-zero pathway, including reducing emissions, improving energy efficiency and developing our carbon sequestration initiative. We're allocating capital in the budget to 1.5 to begin construction on the first direct air capture facility. We continue to make progress on both the engineering and commercial needs for direct air capture development. We're improving both of these aspects and believe Oxy's capital helps retain value for our shareholders.
我们的资本计划还包括推进净零路径的相关投资，涵盖减少排放、提升能效以及推动碳封存项目的发展。我们在预算中为 1.5 号项目拨付资本，以启动第一座直接空气捕获设施的建设。我们在直接空气捕获开发的工程与商业两个方面均持续取得进展，并相信 OXY 的资本投入有助于为股东保全和创造价值。
As the construction phase and technology of this new project advance, we will continue to consider strategic capital partnerships and structures to address financing. We'll provide more comprehensive update on 1.5 in direct air capture at our March 23 LCV investor update. We benefited greatly from commodity price rebound last and appreciate how swiftly the price environment can change.
随着这一新项目建设阶段的推进和技术的成熟，我们将继续探讨战略性资本合作与融资结构安排。我们将在 3 月 23 日的低碳业务投资者更新会议上，就 1.5 号项目及直接空气捕获提供更全面的最新进展。我们受益于去年大宗商品价格的强劲反弹，同时也深刻认识到价格环境变化之迅速。
The optionality that our scale and asset base provide enables us to retain a high degree of flexibility in our capital and spending plans. The majority of our capital program is comprised of short-cycle investments, meaning that we have the ability to quickly adapt to changes in the macro environment. Within six months or less, if necessary, we can reduce capital spending to sustaining levels. And if oil prices remain supportive this year, our intent is to follow our cash flow priorities and capital framework that we will share with you today. We have no need and no intent to invest in production growth this year.
我们的规模和资产基础所赋予的灵活性，使我们能够在资本和支出计划上保持高度弹性。我们资本计划的大部分由短周期投资构成，这意味着我们能够迅速适应宏观环境的变化。如有必要，我们可以在六个月或更短的时间内将资本支出削减至维持性水平。如果今年油价保持支撑态势，我们的意图是遵循我们今天将与大家分享的现金流优先级和资本框架。今年我们没有必要、也没有意图投资于产量增长。
Having a flexible capital budget that includes investment and cash flow longevity provides us and puts us in a strong position to implement shareholder return framework that will benefit shareholders over the long term. With respect to cash flow priorities, our priorities for 2022 remain largely unchanged, with a continuing emphasis on reducing debt while maintaining our asset base integrity and sustainability. The objective of strengthening our financial position remains the same. It enabled us to confidently increase the amount of capital that we may sustainably return to shareholders throughout the cycle.
拥有一个兼顾投资与现金流长期性的灵活资本预算，使我们处于有利位置，能够推行一套将长期惠及股东的回报框架。就现金流优先级而言，我们 2022 年的优先事项基本保持不变，继续着重于削减债务，同时维护资产基础的完整性与可持续性。强化财务状况这一目标始终如一，它使我们能够有信心地提高在整个周期内可持续向股东返还的资本规模。
As we expect net debt to fall below $25 billion by the end of the first quarter, our focus has expanded to returning capital to shareholders, beginning with the increase in our common dividend to $0.13 per share and the reactivation and expansion of our share repurchase program. The increase in the dividend to $0.13 per share is consistent with our intention to initially increase the dividend to a level that approximates the yield of the S&P 500.
随着我们预期净债务将于第一季度末降至 250 亿美元以下，我们的关注重心已扩展至向股东返还资本，首先是将普通股股息提高至每股 0.13 美元，并重启和扩大股票回购计划。将股息提高至每股 0.13 美元，符合我们将股息初步提升至接近标普 500 指数收益率水平的既定意图。
We believe establishing framework for returning capital to shareholders through a sustainable common dividend, combined with an active share repurchase program and continued debt reduction, creates an attractive value proposition for shareholders, while also improving the Company's long-term financial position. For the first phase of our shareholder return framework initiated, we have the options in future years to invest in cash flow growth.
我们相信，通过可持续的普通股股息、结合积极的股票回购计划及持续的债务削减来构建股东回报框架，将为股东创造具有吸引力的价值主张，同时也将改善公司的长期财务状况。在股东回报框架第一阶段启动之后，我们在未来几年拥有投资于现金流增长的选择权。
We have the ability to grow oil and gas cash flow through higher production, but also have multiple investment opportunities across our other businesses. As evidenced by our guidance for 2022, we do not intend to grow production in 2022. At the point where it is appropriate to invest in future cash flow growth, we will only do so if supported by long-term demand. Any future production growth will be limited to an average annual rate of approximately 5%.
我们具备通过提高产量来增长油气现金流的能力，同时在其他业务领域也拥有多元化的投资机会。正如我们 2022 年的指引所表明的，我们今年无意增长产量。在适合投资未来现金流增长的时机到来时，我们只会在长期需求支撑下才会这样做。未来任何产量增长都将限制在年均约 5% 的水平以内。
开始就意识到要控制资本的支出。
2011-2020年，页岩油导致美国石油公司在资本支出上失控，因为页岩把美国石油变成了一个短周期、可快速加杠杆扩张的生意，管理层和资本市场在很长时间里把‘产量增长’误当成了‘价值创造’，结果把行业推入了 outspend cash flow 的竞赛”。直到 2020 之后，资本市场才基本把这个行业重新训回“先自由现金流、再谈增长”的框架。
1、美国上游、尤其独立页岩油生产商，在 2010 年代被页岩油的高可扩张性推入了“增产优先”的资本开支竞赛。页岩油在 2011 年前后变得经济可行后，美国原油产量从 2011 年的大约 570 万桶/日一路升到 2019 年的约 1230 万桶/日；纽约联储也指出，2011–2019 年美国油气产量大增，油产量超过翻倍，背后主要是压裂技术扩散带来的生产率提升。
2、但从股东回报看，2010s 很大一段时间并不好。Reuters 2019 年对 29 家头部独立页岩油公司的分析写得很直接：这些公司已经连续多年“把产量放在现金流和股东回报前面”，仅 2018 年合计就多花了 66.9 亿美元；到 2019 年末，投资人对能源板块的总结已经是“they outspent cash flow… huge sinks of capital”。也就是说，页岩油让美国产量和能源安全大幅改善，不等于它同时给股东创造了好回报。
3、准确的时间切法是：2011–2014 是第一轮扩张，2015–2016 是油价崩盘后的强制刹车，2017–2019 是价格修复后又一次“证明自己会资本纪律”的阶段，但很多公司仍没有真正做到。到 2020 年疫情与油价暴跌，这套“先增产、后谈回报”的模式基本被打穿；2021–2022 开始，投资者和债权人才真正把行业目标函数改成了“return on capital first”。Reuters 2021 报道说，哪怕油价冲高，页岩油公司也一反过去 boom 时必然大举钻井的模式，因为投资者要求的是financial returns over more volume；Dallas Fed 2022 的调查也直接写到：“Discipline continues to dominate the industry. Shareholders and lenders continue to demand a return on capital.”
在 2021–2022 这个阶段，控制资本支出、把重点从“产量增长”转向“自由现金流/资产负债表/股东回报”，基本是美国油气行业的共同策略。 OXY 不是孤例，但它在表述上更明确、执行上也更保守。
先看你引用的 OXY。公司在 2022 年指引里明确说，不打算在 2022 年增产；只有在长期需求支持下才会为未来现金流增长投资；未来产量增长年均大致限制在 5% 左右。同时，OXY 把 2022 年资本计划定义为维持产量、投资高回报项目、优先降债和股东回报，并强调如有必要可在六个月内把资本支出降到维持水平。
如果对照其他美国石油公司，同期能看到非常相似的框架，但强弱有别。
Chevron 的口径和 OXY 很接近。Chevron 在 2021 年底发布 2022 年资本预算时，直接说这份预算体现了公司“持久的资本纪律承诺”，把 2022 年有机资本与勘探支出定在 150 亿美元，位于此前 150–170 亿美元 指引区间的低端；同时上调了股票回购指引。到 2022 Investor Day，Chevron 更进一步把传统油气业务直接定义为“high-return, low-growth”，并提出到 2026 年维持 150–170 亿美元 的资本与勘探开支框架。也就是说，Chevron 的核心思路不是用更高 capex 去追求更高产量，而是在相对受控的资本框架里追求更高回报和现金流质量。
ExxonMobil 也有明显的资本纪律，但和 OXY/Chevron 相比，它不是“几乎不增长”，而是“在固定资本框架内只投高回报、低成本供给资产”。2022 年初，Exxon 说 2022 年资本支出预计在 210–240 亿美元；到 2022 年 12 月发布 2023–2027 corporate plan 时，它把未来几年年资本支出维持在 200–250 亿美元，同时强调这是一个“disciplined approach”，优先投向high-return, low-cost-of-supply项目。更关键的是，Exxon 说明其近端上游投资在 2023 年大体是把产量维持在约 370 万桶油当量/日，也就是先用资本框架锁死，再从资产组合优化和成本下降中提 ROCE 和现金流，而不是重回过去那种为了增量而增量的模式。
ConocoPhillips 的表述也很典型。它在 2021 年 12 月公布 2022 年初步预算时，给出的 2022 年 capex 大约是 72 亿美元，产量只做低个位数的基础增长，同时推出三层股东回报框架，并预计 2022 年向股东回报大约 70 亿美元。到 2022 年 2 月，COP 又把 2022 年股东回报目标上调到 80 亿美元，并强调 2021 年已把 38% 的 CFO 返还给股东。这个模式和 OXY 的共通点非常明显：先现金流、先回报、增长放在后面，而且增长幅度受控。
EOG 也类似，不过更偏“高质量低速增长”而不是“完全不长”。EOG 在 2022 年资本计划中给出 43–47 亿美元 的预算，强调这是一份“disciplined capital plan”，聚焦于高回报的 double premium wells；而且它特别强调，在 WTI 32 美元 的情况下，经营现金流就足以覆盖资本计划。EOG 的 2022 目标是把油产量恢复到疫情前水平，而不是为了市场热度重新开启高杠杆扩张。
所以，结论可以压缩成三层：
第一层，行业层面：2021–2022 的确出现了系统性的“资本纪律”转向。Dallas Fed 在 2022 年调查里直接写到：“Discipline continues to dominate the industry. Shareholders and lenders continue to demand a return on capital”，并且很多受访者都说，即便油价高，也不愿意再靠举债或外部融资去扩产。
第二层，公司层面：Chevron、Exxon、ConocoPhillips、EOG 都在同一时期采用了类似的控制资本支出思路，只是表达方式不同。Chevron 最像 OXY，强调“high-return, low-growth”； COP 和 EOG 接受低个位数增长，但前提是低成本供给、强自由现金流和高股东回报；Exxon 则是在更大的资本盘子里强调“固定框架 + 高回报项目优先”。
第三层，OXY 的特殊性：OXY 比很多同行更保守，原因不只是行业风向，还包括它当时更强的降债约束和资本用途竞争。它不仅说 2022 年不增产，还把未来增长显式约束到 0–5% 区间，并把多余现金优先用于降债、分红、回购，以及油气之外的投资机会。这个约束强度，高于当时大多数同行。
I'll now turn the call over to Rob, who will walk you through our shareholder return framework.
我现在将电话交给罗布，他将为您介绍我们的股东回报框架。
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Thank you, Vicki, and good afternoon. As Vicki mentioned, the first phase of our shareholder return framework consists of the debt reduction, an increase in the common dividend of $0.13 per share and the reactivation expansion of our share repurchase program. With net debt expected to be below $25 billion by the end of the first quarter, we are ready to begin returning more capital to shareholders, but we'll continue to prioritize debt reduction to focus on our medium-term goal of regaining our investment-grade credit rating.
谢谢 Vicki，大家下午好。正如 Vicki 所提到的，我们股东回报框架的第一阶段包括：削减债务、将普通股股息每股提高 0.13 美元，以及重新启动并扩大股票回购计划。随着第一季度末净债务预计降至 250 亿美元以下，我们已准备好向股东返还更多资本，但我们将继续优先推进债务削减，以实现重新获得投资级信用评级这一中期目标。
We place high importance on debt reduction for the reasons I highlighted last quarter, mainly that as debt is reduced, our company's enterprise value rebalance to the benefit of our shareholders. We recognize that oil prices are uncertain and may remain volatile, particularly in the current environment. We then prioritize our time of initial $5 billion of debt to drive our net debt towards our next milestone of $20 billion. When this milestone is achieved, our balance sheet will improve significantly even from where we are today.
我们高度重视债务削减，理由正如我上个季度所强调的：随着债务减少，公司的企业价值将向股东倾斜并重新平衡。我们认识到油价存在不确定性，尤其是在当前环境下，价格可能持续波动。因此，我们将优先用现金流偿还初步的 50 亿美元债务，推动净债务迈向下一个里程碑——200 亿美元。一旦达成这一里程碑，即便相较于当前水平，我们的资产负债表也将得到显著改善。
We intend to provide our shareholders with a competitive common dividend while maintaining a long cycle cash flow breakeven at $40 WTI or less. The long-term sustainability of dividend will be enhanced by continued deleveraging and share repurchases as well as our best-in-class capital efficiency and a deep low-cost portfolio of assets. As debt retired our cash interest payments will decrease, free and enough cash, it can be used to support future common dividend growth.
我们的目标是为股东提供具有竞争力的普通股股息，同时将长周期现金流盈亏平衡点维持在 WTI 40 美元或以下。通过持续去杠杆、股票回购，以及我们一流的资本效率和深厚的低成本资产组合，普通股股息的长期可持续性将得到进一步增强。随着债务不断偿还，现金利息支出将相应减少，从而释放出足够的自由现金流，用于支撑未来普通股股息的增长。
In addition to the increase in the common dividend $0.13 per share, we intend to purchase approximately $3 billion of outstanding shares of common stock. Maintaining an active share repurchase program with the benefit of a healthy balance sheet will potentially enable us to grow the dividend on a per share basis at a faster rate. As evidenced by our progress reducing debt last year, debt retirement remains a higher cash flow priority than share repurchase program.
除将普通股股息每股提高 0.13 美元外，我们还计划回购约 30 亿美元的已发行普通股。在健康资产负债表的支撑下，保持积极的股票回购计划，有望推动每股股息以更快的速度增长。正如我们去年在削减债务方面取得的进展所证明的，债务偿还在现金流分配上的优先级仍高于股票回购计划。
We intend to make substantial progress towards retiring an additional $5 billion of debt before initiating share repurchases. It is our goal to reward shareholders with a triple benefit of a sustainable common benefit, an active share repurchase program and a continuously strengthening financial position. We believe the shareholder return framework we have detailed this afternoon delivers these benefits and remaining as transparent for shareholders.
我们计划在启动股票回购之前，先在偿还额外 50 亿美元债务方面取得实质性进展。我们的目标是以三重回报回馈股东：可持续的普通股股息、积极的股票回购计划，以及持续改善的财务状况。我们相信，本次下午详细阐述的股东回报框架能够切实兑现上述承诺，并始终保持对股东的透明度。
I'll now turn to our fourth quarter results. In the fourth quarter, we announced an adjusted profit of $1.48 and a reported profit of $1.37 per diluted share. Our adjusted income improved significantly through 2021, with the fourth quarter being the strongest quarter of the year. The increase in earnings was primarily driven by higher commodity prices and volumes as well as OxyChem's excellent financial performance.
现在我来介绍第四季度的业绩。第四季度，我们公布的调整后每股摊薄利润为 1.48 美元，报告利润为每股摊薄 1.37 美元。2021 年全年，我们的调整后利润持续显著改善，第四季度是全年表现最强的季度。盈利提升主要得益于大宗商品价格上涨、产量增加，以及 OxyChem 的出色财务表现。
Our domestic oil and gas expenses experienced a sizable reduction on a BOE basis from the previous quarter and reflect a more normalized environment, absent any significant weather disruptions. The strong performance of our businesses, combined with the benefit of a healthy commodity prices, enabled us to deliver another consecutive quarter of record free cash flow.
我们国内油气业务的单桶运营成本（BOE）较上一季度大幅下降，反映出在没有重大气候干扰的情况下，运营环境趋于正常化。各业务板块的强劲表现，叠加大宗商品价格处于健康水平所带来的红利，使我们再度实现了创纪录的自由现金流，连续刷新单季历史高点。
On our third quarter call, we announced the completion of our large-scale divestiture program, but reiterated our intention to continue seeing opportunities to optimize our portfolio to create shareholder value. In November, we completed a bolt-on acquisition to increase our working interest in EOR assets that we'd operate. And in January 2022, we divested a small package of Permian acreage that have yet no immediate plan to develop. The purchase and sales prices of these transactions largely offset each other, while the EOR acquisition added approximately 5,000 BOE per day of low decline production as well as increasing our inventory of potential CCUS opportunity.
在第三季度电话会议上，我们宣布完成了大规模资产剥离计划，但同时重申将持续寻找优化资产组合、为股东创造价值的机会。11 月，我们完成了一笔补强型收购，提高了我们在所运营的 EOR 资产中的工作权益。2022 年 1 月，我们出售了一小批尚无近期开发计划的 Permian 权益区块。两笔交易的买卖价格基本相互抵消，而 EOR 收购为我们新增了约每日 5,000 桶油当量的低递减率产量，并进一步丰富了我们潜在的 CCUS 机会储备。
We exited the fourth quarter approximately $2.8 billion of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet after repaying approximately $2.2 billion of debt in the quarter. In total, last year, we paid approximately $6.7 billion of debt and retired $750 million of notional interest rate swaps. Our debt reduction continues to drive a pronounced improvement in our credit profile. Since our last call, both Fitch and S&P upgraded our credit ratings to BB+, 1 notch flow investment grade, and Moody's assigned us a positive outlook on our debt.
第四季度末，我们资产负债表上的不受限现金约为 28 亿美元，此前本季度已偿还约 22 亿美元债务。全年合计，我们偿还了约 67 亿美元债务，并注销了 7.5 亿美元名义本金的利率互换合约。持续的债务削减带动我们信用状况显著改善。自上次电话会议以来，Fitch 和 S&P 均将我们的信用评级上调至 BB+，距投资级仅差一个档次；Moody's 也将我们的债务展望调整为正面。
Reducing the amount of cash is committed to interest payments today place us in a stronger position for a sustainable return of capital in the future. We estimate that the balance sheet improvements executed in 2021 will reduce interest and financing costs by almost $250 million per year going forward, which will fund approximately half of the increase in our common dividend.
减少当前用于利息支付的现金承诺，将使我们在未来实现可持续资本回报方面处于更有利的位置。我们估计，2021 年所推进的资产负债表改善措施，将使未来每年的利息及融资成本减少近 2.5 亿美元，这一节省金额大约可覆盖普通股股息增量的一半。
Our business incurred a negative working capital change in the fourth quarter. It was primarily driven by higher accounts receivable balance due to higher commodity prices and, to a lesser extent, an increase in inventories, including a higher number of barrels on the water at year-end.
第四季度，我们的业务产生了负的营运资本变动。这主要源于大宗商品价格上涨导致应收账款余额增加，其次是库存增加，包括年末在途运输中的桶数有所上升。
The oil and gas hedges we had in place rolled off at the end of the fourth quarter, and we are now positioned to take full advantage of the current commodity price environment. We recognize the possibility of a swoop change in commodity prices always exist. The debt maturity profile we have today is far more mantle than it was two years ago, and our liquidity profile remains robust.
我们此前建立的油气对冲头寸已于第四季度末到期，我们目前已具备充分利用当前大宗商品价格环境的条件。我们认识到，大宗商品价格骤变的可能性始终存在。与两年前相比，我们当前的债务到期结构已大为改善，流动性状况依然稳健。
In addition to cash on hand, we have $4.4 billion of committed unutilized bank facility. We continue to believe that reducing debt and maintaining maximum flexibility in our capital plans is the most effective long-term solution to managing risk while providing shareholders the benefits of commodity price gain.
除手头现金外，我们还拥有 44 亿美元的已承诺未动用银行授信额度。我们始终认为，削减债务并在资本计划中保持最大灵活性，是管理风险、同时让股东分享大宗商品价格上涨收益的最有效长期方案。
We expect our full year production to average 1.155 million BOE per day in 2022. Production in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be lower than the fourth quarter of 2021 due to the timing impact of wells that are brought online in 2021, severe winter weather in the Permian earlier this month and the impact of significant planned international turnaround activities this quarter.
我们预计 2022 年全年产量平均为每日 115.5 万桶油当量。2022 年第一季度产量预计将低于 2021 年第四季度，原因在于：2021 年投产井的时间节点影响、本月早些时候 Permian 地区遭遇的严峻冬季天气，以及本季度大规模计划性国际检修作业的影响。
Algeria, Al Hosn and Dolphin are all undergoing scheduled maintenance in the first quarter, which is reflected in international production guidance. downtime associated with Al Hosn is notably larger than typical years as the plant is undergoing the first full shutdown since its inception to substantially complete the tie-ins associated with the expansion projects and to enhance plant's sustainability and reliability.
Algeria、Al Hosn 和 Dolphin 均在第一季度进行计划性检修，这已体现在国际产量指引中。Al Hosn 的停产时间明显长于往年，因为该装置正在进行自投产以来的首次全面停机，以基本完成扩建项目相关的管线接入工程，并提升装置的可持续性与可靠性。
Additionally, a portion of our international production is subject to production sharing contracts, where we typically receive fewer barrels in a higher price environment, the impact of which is captured in our full year and first quarter guidance. The Permian activity we added late in the fourth quarter is expected to replace the production benefit received in 2021 and completed our DJ rate -- our inventory of DJ Basin of drilled uncompleted wells in the early part of last year. Our 2022 permitting capital allocation is expected to provide benefits that will last into 2023.
此外，我们的部分国际产量受产品分成合同约束——在油价较高的环境下，我们通常获得的实物桶数会减少，这一影响已纳入全年及第一季度指引。我们在第四季度末新增的 Permian 作业活动，预计将弥补 2021 年获得的产量效益，并消化了我们在去年上半年完成的 DJ 盆地已钻未完井库存。我们 2022 年的资本配置安排预计将产生延续至 2023 年的持续效益。
We anticipate that our activity this year will provide us the flexibility to either hold Permian inflection flat at our 2022 exit rate for similar capital next year or spend less capital in 2023, the whole production relatively flat to our 2022 average. We also expect that our production in 2022 will increase throughout the year to achieve our full year guidance as our international operations will resume the normal production levels or activity in the Permian brings new production online.
我们预计，今年的作业活动将使我们具备足够的灵活性：以相近的资本投入维持 Permian 产量在 2022 年末出口速率水平不变，或在 2023 年减少资本支出、同时将总产量维持在相对接近 2022 年平均水平的位置。我们同样预计，随着国际业务恢复正常产量水平，以及 Permian 地区新井相继投产，2022 年全年产量将逐季提升，最终实现全年产量指引。
Additionally, the trajectory of operating production is anticipated to offset lower production in Rockies this year as our activity in the DJ Basin is tapered, reflected development planning timing to ensure efficient operations as new products are obtained, partially offsetting lower Rockies production with higher Permian production, combined with the increase in EOR activity will result in a slightly higher domestic operating expense as the DJ Basin has one of the lowest operating costs on a BOE basis in our portfolio. The increase in Permian production is expected to result in domestic cash margins improving by -- in 2022 as the Company-wide oil cut increases approximately 54.5%.
此外，由于我们在 DJ 盆地的作业活动有所收缩——这反映了开发规划节奏的调整，以确保在新许可证获批后实现高效运营——Rockies 地区产量将有所下降，但生产轨迹的整体走势预计将对此形成对冲：Permian 产量的提升将部分弥补 Rockies 的减量，叠加 EOR 作业活动的增加，国内运营费用将略有上升，原因在于 DJ 盆地是我们资产组合中单桶运营成本最低的区域之一。随着全公司原油占比提升至约 54.5%，Permian 产量的增加预计将推动 2022 年国内现金利润率改善。
The mid-cycle level of capital we intend to spin this year provides flexibility to sustain production in 2023 and beyond at our multiyear sustaining capital level of $3.2 billion in a $40 price environment. We expect that OxyChem's 2022 earnings will exceed even 2021. OxyChem continues to benefit from continued demand improvement at caustic soda, while PVC pricing remains strong. Additionally, as I mentioned on our last call, we expect corn markets to remain tight as chlor-alkali producers seek the highest value for their products. OxyChem's integration to cost multiple corn derivatives enables us to optimize our production mix to supply the products the market requires, whether this is for corn-to-water treatment, vinyls or PVC, for example.
我们今年计划投入的中周期资本水平，使我们在 WTI 40 美元的价格环境下，能够以 32 亿美元的多年期维持性资本水平灵活地维持 2023 年及以后的产量。我们预计 OxyChem 2022 年的盈利将超越 2021 年的水平。OxyChem 持续受益于烧碱需求的持续改善，同时 PVC 价格依然坚挺。此外，正如我在上次电话会议中提到的，随着氯碱生产商追求产品的最高附加值，我们预计氯市场将保持供应偏紧的态势。OxyChem 对多种氯衍生品的一体化整合，使我们能够优化生产组合，灵活供应市场所需产品，例如用于水处理的氯、乙烯基产品或 PVC 等。
This year, we will make an incremental capital investment as it could be the feed study for the modernization of certain Gulf Coast clor-alkali assets from diaphram to membrane technology. Modernizing these assets would result in material energy efficiency improvements, which will also lower the carbon intensity per ton of the product produced and delivered. The project would also provide the opportunity for a significant expansion of our existing capacity to meet growing demand for our key products. We expect to reach final investment decision later this year, at which time, we will be prepared to share additional details.
今年，我们将进行增量资本投资，用于部分墨西哥湾沿岸氯碱资产从隔膜法升级为膜法技术的前端工程设计（FEED）研究。对这些资产进行现代化改造，将带来显著的能效提升，同时降低每吨产品生产与交付的碳排放强度。该项目还将为大幅扩展我们的现有产能提供契机，以满足主要产品不断增长的市场需求。我们预计将于今年晚些时候作出最终投资决定，届时我们将准备好分享更多详细信息。
To assist investors to reconcile our guidance with our segment earnings, we have made a change in how we guide midstream going forward. Our midstream guidance now includes income from West, which is a change to how we've guided midstream previously. Quarterly guidance now includes Oxy's portion of WES income using the average of the previous four publicly available quarters. Our annual guidance now includes Oxy's portion of WES income using the sum of the previous four publicly available quarters.
为协助投资者将我们的业绩指引与分部盈利进行对接，我们对中游业务的指引方式作出了调整。中游业务指引现已纳入 WES 的收益，这是相较于以往指引方式的一项变化。季度指引现采用前四个已公开季度 OXY 应占 WES 收益的平均值；年度指引现采用前四个已公开季度 OXY 应占 WES 收益的加总值。
As you look to the year ahead, we will work to continue to improve on the numerous operational and financial success of 2021, including making additional inroads on reducing debt, implementing our shareholder return framework and advancing our low-carbon aspirations.
展望新的一年，我们将致力于在 2021 年众多运营与财务成果的基础上持续精进，包括进一步推进债务削减、落实股东回报框架，以及推动低碳目标的实现。
I'll now turn the call back over to Vicki.
现在，我将把会议发言权交还给 Vicki。
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
Thank you, Rob. When we established Low Carbon Ventures in 2018, we knew we were ahead of the curve in recognizing the opportunity and necessity of building a carbon management business, both to help reduce global emissions and to enhance our business. At that time, we were focused on key technologies and projects that would reduce Oxy's emissions and provide a more sustainable future business.
谢谢你，罗布。当我们在 2018 年成立低碳风险投资时，我们知道我们在认识到建立碳管理业务的机会和必要性方面走在了前面，这不仅有助于减少全球排放，也有助于提升我们的业务。那时，我们专注于关键技术和项目，以减少 Oxy 的排放并提供一个更可持续的未来业务。
Today, we have advanced that vision and fully appreciate the vast scope of the carbon management opportunity as well as the cross-industry support and partnership in front of us. On past earnings calls, we had discussed several of the initiatives Low Carbon Ventures is developing and Oxy's ambition to achieve net zero before 2050. We've been working on key technology developments and important commercial needs to advance projects that are now in a position to move more fully -- and more fully detail our low carbon business and how it positions us to realize our net-zero ambition and improve our long-term business.
今天，我们已经推进了这一愿景，并充分认识到碳管理机会的广泛范围，以及我们面前的跨行业支持和合作。在过去的财报电话会议上，我们讨论了低碳风险投资正在开发的几个项目，以及 Oxy 在 2050 年前实现净零排放的雄心。我们一直在致力于关键技术的发展和重要商业需求，以推进现在能够更全面推进的项目——并更详细地阐述我们的低碳业务，以及它如何使我们实现净零排放的雄心并改善我们的长期业务。
On March 23, we will host a Low Carbon Ventures investor update, where we will provide a detailed update on our low-carbon strategy with a focus on the technology and commercial development of carbon-capture projects, specifically direct air capture. The event, which we expect may last up to 2.5 hours, will be accessible through our website. As I've said before, we are excited about our unique position and capabilities as a company. We value our broader low-carbon and business partnerships that are growing, and our workforce is energized to advance this immense opportunity before us.
在 3 月 23 日，我们将举办一次低碳投资者更新会，届时我们将详细介绍我们的低碳战略，重点关注碳捕集项目的技术和商业发展，特别是直接空气捕集。我们预计此次活动可能持续长达 2.5 小时，届时可通过我们的网站访问。正如我之前所说，我们对公司独特的定位和能力感到兴奋。我们重视不断增长的广泛低碳和商业合作伙伴关系，我们的员工也充满活力，致力于推动我们面前的巨大机遇。
We'll now open the call for your questions.
我们现在开始接受您的提问。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Today's first question comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays. Please go ahead.
谢谢。我们现在将开始问答环节。[操作员指示] 今天的第一个问题来自巴克莱的 Jeanine Wai。请继续。
Jeanine Wai 珍妮娜·韦
My first question is on the gross debt reduction or assuming that the $5 billion that you're planning on getting through, that can be executed through tenders. And so just any idea on what the timing of that could look like for you to complete that given what you've seen in the market? And do you need to get through the full $5 billion of tenders before you begin the buybacks that we were looking back at your prior tender? And you almost got the whole thing done, but that was only about $1.5 billion.
我的第一个问题是关于总债务的减少，假设你们计划通过要约收购来完成50亿美元的债务削减。你们对完成这一计划的时间安排有何看法，鉴于你们在市场中所看到的情况？在你们开始进行回购之前，是否需要完成全部50亿美元的要约收购？回顾你们之前的要约收购，你们几乎完成了全部，但当时只有大约15亿美元。
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Yes. Good question, Jeanine. And so I guess, first, let me comment on the tender that we did at the end in December. We were pretty aggressive on the premiums we've put in that tender because we knew we had an additional $700 million of callable debt available to us at the time. And so we were pretty happy with the ultimate outcome that came out of that. As we move forward since then, we have a lot of opportunities to reduce the debt.
是的。好问题，珍妮。首先，我想评论一下我们在 12 月底进行的招标。我们在招标中对溢价的设定相当激进，因为我们知道当时有额外的 7 亿美元可赎回债务可用。因此，我们对最终的结果感到非常满意。自那时以来，我们有很多机会来减少债务。
Last year, we were able to reduce, of the $6.7 billion of debt we did last year, we only paid a 1.5% premium for that. And within that, $4.7 million of that was actually concentrated on maturities that were 2024 or newer. And so, when I look at the opportunities to retire debt this year, as we indicated, we already retired the remaining January -- last of our 2022 maturities for $101 million already this month or this quarter.
去年，我们能够减少67亿美元的债务，而为此我们只支付了1.5%的溢价。其中，47亿美元的债务实际上集中在2024年或更新的到期债务。因此，当我考虑今年的债务偿还机会时，正如我们所提到的，我们已经在本月或本季度偿还了剩余的2022年到期债务，总额为1.01亿美元。
So we do have tenders, make-whole provisions. We have the ability to build cash on a net debt basis as maturities come forward. We do have the option to settle the February 23 notes, which is the bulk of our 2023 maturities become callable in November. But overall, when I look at the -- our debt, it is actually even cheaper than it was at the end of the year, largely because as interest rates have risen in the perspective of interest rates rising again.
因此，我们确实有要约收购和偿还条款的安排。随着债务到期，我们有能力在净债务基础上积累现金。我们确实有选择在今年11月赎回2023年2月到期的票据，这些票据构成了我们2023年到期债务的主要部分。但总体来看，当我审视我们的债务时，实际上比年末还要便宜，这主要是因为随着利率上升，市场预期利率将再次上升。
And so certainly, the next dollar we put forward will be towards debt reduction. And with the cash we ended the year at and the cash we're adding during the quarter, it's pretty safe to say that's probably not too far in the future that we initiate that process again. We don't need to have all of that completed before we return to buying share when we initiated a share purchase program, but we needed to be substantially completed or have line of sight on it being completed before we begin purchasing shares.
因此，毫无疑问，我们下一个投入的美元将用于减少债务。考虑到我们年末的现金和在本季度增加的现金，可以相当安全地说，我们再次启动这一过程的时间可能不会太远。在我们启动股票回购计划时，并不需要在回购股票之前完成所有这些，但我们需要在大部分完成或能够看到完成的情况下，才能开始购买股票。
卡着脖子过日子。
Jeanine Wai
Okay. Great. That's really helpful information. Thank you. Maybe just going forward a little bit beyond that on your future cash flow priorities. Oxy has got a real high-class problem. Assuming oil prices stay anywhere close to where they are today, you'll be building a significant amount of cash on the balance sheet over the next few years even after you do the $5 billion of debt reduction and the $3 billion of buybacks. So I guess, have you started to assess the next debt and capital allocation after hitting your debt goals and the buyback? And I guess specifically, do you have any thoughts on potentially trying to tackle the preferreds early and doing that versus either other debt reduction or production growth and just how you're thinking about preferreds? Thank you.
好的，非常感谢，这些信息很有帮助。在此基础上，我想再往前多问一步，关于贵公司未来的现金流优先级。OXY 现在面临的是一个令人羡慕的"高质量烦恼"。假设油价大致维持在当前水平附近，即便在完成 50 亿美元债务削减和 30 亿美元回购之后，未来几年你们的资产负债表上仍将积累相当可观的现金。所以我想问：你们是否已经开始评估在达成债务目标和回购目标之后，下一步的债务管理和资本配置方向？更具体地说，你们是否考虑过提前处置优先股，以及这与进一步削减债务或扩大产量之间如何取舍——总体上你们是怎么看待优先股问题的？谢谢。
Rob Peterson
We've discussed previously provisions with regards to the Berkshire agreement related to shareholder return, enabling us to begin redemption of the Berkshire to $4 per share common dividend to our shareholders. Assuming we repurchased $3 billion of shares in a 12-month period and then you combine that with $0.52 of dividend payments over four consecutive quarters, we still want to distribute it enough to reach a $4 per share distribution trigger. It would be about $3.72 at that point.
我们此前讨论过与 Berkshire 协议相关的股东回报条款：当我们向普通股股东的每股分配额达到 4 美元时，即可触发对 Berkshire 优先股的赎回权。假设我们在 12 个月内回购了 30 亿美元的股份，再加上连续四个季度合计 0.52 美元的股息支付，要触达每股 4 美元的分配触发门槛仍有差距——届时累计分配额大约为 3.72 美元。
But I want you to know, the Berkshire on provision isn't a limit on our ability to return value to shareholders. It simply means that circumstance arrives and the macro puts us in a place where we have exceeded $4 per share. On a trailing 12-month basis, we would just be in a position where we have to redeem an equal portion of Berkshire at a 10% premium as we return to shareholders above and beyond that.
但我想说明的是，Berkshire 的相关条款并不是对我们向股东返还价值能力的限制。它的含义仅仅是：一旦宏观环境使我们在过去 12 个月的滚动基础上超过了每股 4 美元的分配门槛，我们就需要以 10% 的溢价赎回等比例的 Berkshire 优先股。
Salomon、Goldman，都有相似的、防一手的影子，这些企业如果不是突然发生点什么也不会找上BRK。
And so, as we sit here today in February, agreeing that there's a lot of potential for elevated oil prices over an extended period of time to create a constructive macro for going beyond our debt focus, but it's a little too early, I think, to speculate on what we would do at that point in time.
因此，我们在二月份坐在这里，虽然一致认为油价在较长时期内维持高位存在相当大的可能性，这将为我们超越当前债务削减重心创造有利的宏观条件，但我认为，现在就去推测届时将采取何种举措，还为时过早。
Operator 操作员
Our next question today comes from Phil Gresh at JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
我们今天的下一个问题来自摩根大通的菲尔·格雷什。请继续。
Phil Gresh 菲尔·格雷什
Yes, I guess just a follow up on that question around the net debt, the $20 billion next step, so to speak. What is the ultimate goal with the balance sheet? Is it $10 billion to $15 billion? I mean how do you think about that today?
是的，我想就关于净债务的问题做一个跟进，所谓的 200 亿美元的下一步。资产负债表的最终目标是什么？是 100 亿到 150 亿美元吗？我想知道你今天是如何看待这个问题的？
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Yes. So I think we've already seen in notes published from the various rating agencies that their expectations would be investment grade is somewhere in the mid- to high-teens. And so I think getting to that point -- getting to a level at some point that is in that $15 billion or less net debt is an ultimate goal for the Company. That would put us in a place -- there -- it also depends sort of on their long-term price horizon. If you take their $60, hitting down to a net of 20 puts us close to a two multiple at that point, depending on EBITDA going on a year-on-year out basis. So, we know we've got to do a little further than that in order to get consideration for investment grade.
是的。我认为我们已经从各评级机构发布的报告中看到，他们的预期是投资级别的净债务水平大约在150亿至170亿美元之间。因此，我认为将净债务降至150亿美元或更少是公司的最终目标。这将使我们处于一个更有利的位置——当然，这也取决于他们的长期价格预期。如果你采用60美元的价格假设，将净债务降至200亿会使我们的杠杆比率接近两倍，这取决于年复一年的EBITDA。因此，我们知道我们需要再进一步，以便获得投资级别的考虑。
Phil Gresh 菲尔·格雷什
Okay. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks. And then, Rob, you made a comment just about the Permian exit rate in '22 and into 2023. And I was just wondering where do you stand in terms of the CapEx carry with the Ecopetrol JV? Is there any spending in 2022 that kind of moves into the full 50-50 split? Or is that a 2023 event? I'm just curious, based on your comments you're making, how you incorporated how that could flip to the 50-50 and when?
好的，这很有道理，谢谢。然后，Rob，你刚刚提到2022年和2023年Permian盆地的退出率。我想问一下你们与Ecopetrol合资企业的资本支出分担情况是怎样的？2022年是否有任何支出会转入完全的50-50分成？还是说这要到2023年才会发生？我只是好奇，基于你刚才的评论，你是如何考虑这一转变以及何时会转变为50-50分成的？
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Based on the activity level we have planned for this year, we would probably consume the balance of the carry this year, but we don't anticipate really flipping in 2022.
根据我们为今年计划的活动水平，我们可能会在今年消耗掉剩余的库存，但我们不预计在 2022 年会真正转变。
Operator
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Bank of America 的 Doug Leggate，请提问。
Doug Leggate
Rob or Vicki, I wonder if I could follow up first on the buyback. Just so I understand it correctly. So $3 billion, is that an annual number that, depending on when you start the buyback, would you still expect to execute the full $3 billion in 2022, irrespective of when you hit, you get that line of sight, which I'm guessing is for months or months. And I guess related, you're kind of front-running yourself a little bit. And one could argue, taking the stock is heavily discounted because your capital structure, why not consider something like an ESR?
Rob 或 Vicki，我想先就回购问题跟进一下。为确保我理解正确——这 30 亿美元是一个年度目标吗？无论何时启动回购，你们是否仍预期在 2022 年内完成全部 30 亿美元，不管何时获得那条清晰的执行路径（我猜大概还需要数月时间）？另外，有一种说法是：你们这样做多少有点"抢跑"的意味。有观点认为，鉴于你们当前的资本结构，股价存在大幅折价，为何不考虑加速股票回购（ASR）之类的方式？
Rob Peterson
So Doug, I think the first way I'd answer part of your question is the -- once we begin to initiate the share repurchases, it will be done both in an open-market repurchase basis when the market is open, and when it's closed through a 10b5 type programmatic program.
Doug，我先回答你问题的第一部分。一旦我们启动股票回购，将通过两种方式执行：市场开放时通过公开市场回购，市场关闭时则通过 10b5-1 计划性程序进行。
The stock, as you know, is extremely liquid. We can easily purchase $1 billion of shares in less than 14 trading days without, I mean, close to 15% of the average daily trading volume. So there's a pretty safe way that over a fairly short period of time if we wanted to, we could accomplish $3 billion goal.
如你所知，这只股票的流动性极强。我们可以在不超过 14 个交易日内轻松买入 10 亿美元的股份，大约相当于日均交易量的 15%。因此，如果我们有意推进，在相当短的时间内完成 30 亿美元的回购目标，是完全可行且稳妥的。
But that goal certainly be dictated by our free cash flow generation. That's largely related to the commodity prices. And it's -- we're in an environment right now where we -- the hedges have rolled off. We're giving our shareholders full exposure to commodity prices, which we think over the cycle of the commodities, will deliver the most value of the Company, ultimately most value to shareholders.
但这一目标的实现必然取决于我们的自由现金流生成情况，而这在很大程度上与大宗商品价格挂钩。目前我们处于对冲头寸已到期的环境中，我们让股东完全暴露于大宗商品价格的涨跌之中——我们认为，纵观整个商品周期，这将为公司创造最大价值，最终也为股东带来最大回报。
But along with that, we realized that the macro can change for a lot of different risk factors that can cause prices to go unconstructed for us in a rapid fashion also. And so we can't find ourselves in a position where maybe we tackled the stock ahead of time and the price environment change for whatever reason, and we haven't the debt first.
但与此同时，我们也意识到，宏观环境可能因各种风险因素而发生变化，导致油价迅速对我们不利。因此，我们不能让自己陷入这样一种境地：提前大举回购股票，结果价格环境因某种原因突然逆转，而我们此时债务还没有优先处置。
And that's part of the reason why we understand that over the long -- over the course of the year, we may end up paying more for the stock to retire it. But in aligning risks and opportunities for shareholders, we think that approach we are taking the most prudent way to do it.
这也是我们意识到，在整个年度推进过程中，我们最终支付的回购价格可能会更高的部分原因。但在为股东平衡风险与机遇的考量下，我们认为目前的做法是最稳健的方式。
账上没什么钱也要做股票回购。
Doug Leggate
Okay. So just to be clear, so if you started the buy back in May, you'd still expect to get $3 billion done this year? That's just for clarity. That's not my follow-up.
好的，只是想确认一下：如果你们在 5 月才启动回购，今年仍然预期能完成 30 亿美元的目标吗？这只是想确认一下，不是我的追问。
Rob Peterson
Well, the time line is going to be dependent upon the availability of cash, Doug. That's what's going to be the driver of it. But in terms of ability to execute with the liquidity of the stock, a time frame will be completed in the second half of the year, even if we didn't initiate until the second half of the year would not be a challenge.
Doug，时间节奏将取决于现金的可用情况，这才是真正的驱动因素。但就股票流动性所支撑的执行能力而言，即便我们直到下半年才启动回购，在下半年内完成目标也不是什么难题。
Doug Leggate
My follow-up is a resource question. Vicki, I'm guessing this was deliberate, but you've given -- you've kind of laid out the inventory debt for the onshore portfolio, looks at the current rate, something around 15 years, assuming not a lot of growth. What about the Gulf of Mexico and the rest of the portfolio? Can you give us kind of an update as to how you see the resource depth or sustainability that goes along with the sustaining capital number that you gave us?
我的追问是一个资源方面的问题。Vicki，我猜这是有意为之——你们已经呈现了陆上资产组合的井库储量，按当前速率来看大约有 15 年左右的开发周期，前提是增长幅度不大。那么墨西哥湾和其他资产的情况如何？能否就资源深度或可持续性方面给我们一个更新，与你们提供的维持性资本数字相对应？
Vicki Hollub
Yes. I'll let Ken answer that. He's got his team actually working on that in view of some of the challenges we've had with the recent lease sale. Actually, we have a great new story on that.
当然。我请 Ken 来回答这个问题。考虑到我们在近期租约拍卖中遇到的一些挑战，他的团队正在就此深入研究。实际上，我们在这方面有一个很好的新进展。
Ken Dillon
Doug, in terms of Gulf of Mexico, we recently completed our field architecture studies. As you know, we have a 179 blocks, wherein 90 of those are tagged as exploration. When we look at the risk portfolio and the opportunities we have, we have substantial work, hundreds of millions of risk barrels, opportunities going forward. We have a solid assembly line of projects. We get three projects in flight at moment, Caesar Tonga expansion or our mountain expansion, A2 subsea pumping. And the recent -- as Vicki alluded to our recent lease round attempt. Our goal there was to find, obtain acreage close by our existing infrastructure to accelerate simple tiebacks. That doesn't inhibit us. We have a large portfolio, and we feel comfortable going forward within the plans that have been presented in the slide.
Doug，就墨西哥湾而言，我们最近完成了油田架构研究。如你所知，我们持有 179 个区块，其中 90 个被标记为勘探区块。综合来看我们的风险组合与现有机会，前景十分可观，潜在风险桶数达数亿桶，未来机会充足。我们拥有一条稳健的项目推进管线，目前有三个项目正在推进：Caesar Tonga 扩建、我们的 Mountain 扩建，以及 A2 海底增压泵项目。正如 Vicki 提到的，我们近期也参与了租约拍卖竞标，目标是在现有基础设施附近获取区块，以加速简单回接项目的推进。此次未能如愿并不会制约我们——我们拥有规模可观的资产组合，在已呈现的规划方案框架内，我们对未来的推进充满信心。
Operator
Our next question today comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 Goldman Sachs 的 Neil Mehta，请提问。
Neil Mehta
So the first question is on the production profile. Vicki, you had made the comment, as you think about the long term, you want to see growth somewhere between 0% and 5%. Is that sort of -- why is -- how do you think about the long-term profile? And based on the way you've you view normal, that's a big range. Where do you see yourselves planning in the context of that range?
第一个问题关于产量走势。Vicki，你提到从长期来看，你们希望将增速维持在 0% 至 5% 之间。能否解释一下背后的逻辑？你们是如何看待长期产量走势的？考虑到你们对"正常"状态的理解，这是一个相当宽泛的区间——你们实际规划时倾向于落在这个区间的哪个位置？
Vicki Hollub
Well, it really depends on the projects. And what we always do is we try to design our capital programs to deliver the best returns. And so, it's always -- as we develop our areas, it's always with that in mind and to build the facilities that require a pace of development that delivers the maximum return. So, we could have lumpy -- a little bit lumpy growth going out.
这实际上取决于具体项目。我们一贯的做法是设计能够实现最佳回报的资本计划。因此，在开发各个区域时，我们始终以此为出发点，以能够实现最大回报的开发节奏来配套建设相应设施。所以，我们的增长轨迹可能会呈现出一定的阶段性起伏。
The Gulf of Mexico is a little bit lumpy. In the shale play, depending on whether you're starting a new area or not, it would be a little bit lumpy. But certainly, our capital intensity, we believe, is going to continue overtime to be the best in the industry. And the development that we'll have and whether or not we're net zero or 5% will depend on how the program lays out to maximize returns.
墨西哥湾的产量增长本身就有一定的阶段性；页岩油气方面，是否进入新区域也会带来类似的波动。但我们坚信，随着时间推移，我们的资本效率将持续保持行业领先水平。最终产量增速是接近零还是达到 5%，将取决于如何组合各项计划以实现最大回报。
So, we have, as you see, inventory onshore, inventory in the Gulf of Mexico. We have the -- as well some international projects that could add value. And as I mentioned in my script, we do have in our chemicals business opportunities to grow there. And so, the efficiencies and opportunities that we see really will depend on how we can piece it together to deliver the best possible return.
如你所见，我们在陆上、墨西哥湾均拥有丰富的待开发储量，还有一些可带来价值增量的国际项目。正如我在发言中提到的，化工业务方面也存在增长机会。因此，我们所看到的效率提升空间和发展机遇，最终取决于如何将这些要素有机整合，以实现最优回报。
这是一个非常重要的问题，回答约等于胡扯。
Neil Mehta
Certainly an evolving situation. Let me ask you about Chemicals, Vicki, because the '22 guide was stronger than what we anticipated. I think a lot of investors expected chemicals to be sequentially lower. Just talk about some of the moving pieces that allows for some profitability to improve year-over-year. And what are the biggest risks to actually achieve in the guidance?
形势确实在持续演变。Vicki，我想问一下化工业务，因为 2022 年的指引强于我们的预期。我认为很多投资者预计化工业务的盈利会环比有所下降。能否谈谈支撑盈利同比改善的几个关键因素，以及实现指引面临的最大风险是什么？
Rob Peterson
Yes, Neil, I'll take the one on chemicals. And so what I'd point to, first, I know you understand the business well. As obviously, we -- if you look at Slide 39 in the deck, the two business -- profit drivers in the business are the PVC business or the Vinyls business and the caustic soda business. And both of those did materially improve throughout 2021.
Neil，化工业务这个问题我来回答。我知道你对这块业务很熟悉。如你在幻灯片第 39 页所见，化工业务的两大利润驱动引擎是 PVC（乙烯基）业务和烧碱业务，两者在整个 2021 年均实现了实质性改善。
And when we have favorable conditions in both, the impact to earnings is pretty significant. And so what you're seeing is, is for me to say where the market is at right now as the PVC business is still very tight supply/demand balance. We think operating rates for the industry were in 80%, 81% in January.
当两块业务同时处于有利状态时，对盈利的提振效果相当显著。就目前市场状况而言，PVC 业务的供需平衡依然偏紧，我们认为 1 月份行业开工率约在 80%–81%。
Demand was slightly higher in January of '22 relative to January '21, less than 1%, but a little bit better. Producers are attempting to build inventory in PVC right now in advance of outages that are scheduled, but you've got a situation where they're already at low inventories and the pool from the construction sector remains strong. And so you've got temps to grow inventories while demand is still quite strong.
2022 年 1 月的需求较 2021 年 1 月略有提升，涨幅不足 1%，但方向是积极的。生产商目前正试图在计划性停产检修前补充 PVC 库存，然而库存本身已处于低位，而建筑行业的需求拉动依然强劲。因此，在需求持续旺盛的背景下，补库存的空间实际上相当有限。
We expect demand to remain strong in the PVC business throughout 2022. There's a very favorable housing starts outlook. Mortgage rates obviously remain pretty low, and the remodeling sector also remains very attractive. And so you can look at the export side of the business.
我们预计 2022 年全年 PVC 业务需求将保持强劲。新屋开工前景良好，抵押贷款利率依然处于较低水平，房屋翻新市场也依然极具吸引力。从出口端来看也是如此。
So in January, there's only about 250 million pounds of export, which is about 30% less than '21. That's reflective of the lack of product available right now. And so we certainly see -- you're not giving an opportunity for inventory to really replenish itself and exports to even return and to provide the latter part of the second quarter when resin supply might be normalized in the wake of outages assuming there's no unplanned outages for that period.
1 月份出口量仅约 2.5 亿磅，较 2021 年同期下降约 30%，这反映出当前可供货产品的短缺。在此情况下，库存实际上没有机会得到有效补充，出口也难以恢复。预计在计划性检修结束后，假设该期间不发生非计划停产，树脂供应或将在第二季度后半段趋于正常化。
And then in case of the chlor-alkali side, we're seeing a very tight supply/demand market, largely because of production challenges. Operating rates, we think, in the industry are going to be somewhere in the low 80s for the first quarter. There's a lot plant outages scheduled now in May of '22, but there's been a significant number of unplanned outages still in the industry, impacting product availability.
在氯碱业务方面，市场供需同样非常偏紧，这主要源于生产端的挑战。我们预计第一季度行业开工率将在 80% 出头的低位区间。2022 年 5 月有大量计划性停产检修，但行业内非计划性停产依然频发，对产品可供量造成了明显影响。
And on the coring side, we think we'll see growth at least 3% to 4% this year. Again, all the sector markets are strong with the similar markets to the PVC that draw on the crop side of the business. We think that will be also supplemented by there's improving travel and then business spending. Return to office will drive pen and paper usage for caustic soda, et cetera. So a lot of things that we think are going to be positive on that.
在烧碱方面，我们预计今年需求将至少增长 3%–4%。各细分市场均表现强劲，与 PVC 业务类似，农业端需求的拉动同样不可忽视。此外，出行恢复和商务支出回升也将形成补充支撑——重返办公室将带动纸张使用，进而拉动烧碱需求等。因此，我们认为正面因素相当充足。
And on the international side of the caustic business, certainly rising natural gas prices and availability in Europe and Asia will have already impacted operating rates vinyl producers overseas, which is driving up values to that. And so, the biggest change year-over-year as to why I think there's maybe a surprise because conditions were so remarkable in 2021. And why would we be guiding something higher than that is that if you go back and look at the beginning of the year, caustic soda at the beginning of 2021 was still coming out of the really low values at the post-COVID drop in 2021.
在烧碱的国际市场方面，欧洲和亚洲天然气价格上涨及供应紧张，已经对当地乙烯基生产商的开工率造成冲击，从而推升了烧碱的国际市场价值。说到同比变化为何超出预期，根本原因在于：2021 年初，烧碱价格仍处于疫情冲击后的深度低谷，是在整年中逐季爬升的。
PVC has recovered very quickly on the construction side, but caustic was dragging its way up a little by a little out of the lows experienced during 2020. And so caustic prices improved sequentially quarter after quarter throughout 2021, which is why you'll see the earnings for the segment in the fourth quarter was typically the first and fourth of the shoulder quarters and the strong ones are the midyear, Q2, Q3, but you had almost yet doubled the earnings in the Chemicals segment in the fourth quarter compared to the first quarter.
PVC 在建筑需求的带动下复苏迅速，但烧碱则是从 2020 年的低谷中缓慢逐步爬升。因此，烧碱价格在 2021 年各季度持续环比改善——这也解释了为何化工板块第四季度盈利几乎是第一季度的两倍，尽管通常而言第一、四季度是淡季，第二、三季度才是旺季。
And so we're coming in with so much more momentum, which is why our guide for Q1 is so strong for the Chemical business. And so it's not that we're predicting those conditions persist all the way through the entire year. We're just going to start from a higher point. And how long that these conditions persist will impact what is that guidance that it could increase the balance of the year potentially, if it holds on longer than we're anticipating. We do anticipate that things, as I said, will start to normalize maybe the middle part of the year.
因此，我们是以更高的势能进入 2022 年，这正是我们第一季度化工业务指引如此强劲的原因。我们并非预测这种有利局面将贯穿全年，而只是从一个更高的起点出发。这种局面能持续多久，将直接影响全年后续季度的业绩走向——如果持续时间超出预期，全年指引存在进一步上调的空间。但正如我此前所说，我们预计市场将在年中前后开始趋于正常化。
Operator
And our next question today comes from Matt Portillo with TPH. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo，请提问。
Matt Portillo
Just the first question on the DJ Basin. You mentioned in the prepared remarks some timing around permits. Just curious if you could provide some context on the permitting process as it stands today. And is this a good level of development to think about for next year? Or should we expect a rebound in the DJ in 2023 as it relates to drilling?
第一个问题关于 DJ 盆地。你们在准备好的发言中提到了与许可证相关的时间节点问题。能否介绍一下目前许可证申请流程的进展情况？今年的开发规模是否可以作为明年的参考基准？还是说 2023 年 DJ 盆地的钻井活动将会反弹？
Richard Jackson
Hi, Matt, this is Richard. I'll take that one for. So, with respect to the permits in the DJ, really have had good progress over the last years, I would describe it. Just looking at some of the permits in hand, we've had about 46 wells permitted, which takes us through really past half of the year. And so what we've really put in place is optionality in our program. So you dig into sort of our onshore plan for this year, we have plans to pick up a second rig in the year. And really, that's based on confidence with where we're going with our permit.
Matt，你好，我是 Richard，我来回答这个问题。关于 DJ 盆地的许可证情况，我认为过去这段时间总体上取得了良好进展。就目前已获批的许可证来看，我们已有约 46 口井获得许可，足以支撑我们推进到今年过半之后。因此，我们在作业计划中实际上已内置了相当的灵活性。如果深入来看今年的陆上计划，我们计划在年内增加第二台钻机，这一安排正是建立在我们对许可证推进进展的信心之上。
So as you know, last year, some changes in terms of the process happened. And so we've been meaningfully engaged over the last year. Importantly, at the stakeholder level and communities and then now with the state, but we've seen in our own pads approved as well as other operators. And I think the feedback that we've received and we continue to work on together is continuing to improve technology and things that we know that can really place us in a good place for development. So I guess, in short, we're optimistic we've got a rig plan to come in, in the second half of the year, but have optionality within the program to be able to adjust as needed.
如你所知，去年在审批流程方面发生了一些变化。过去一年里，我们在多个层面进行了有实质意义的沟通参与，包括与利益相关方、社区，以及现在与州政府层面的对话。我们已看到自己的井场获批，其他运营商也有类似进展。我认为，我们收到的反馈以及双方持续的合作，都指向不断改进技术和作业方式——这些正是我们认为能够为后续开发奠定有利基础的关键所在。简而言之，我们对下半年增加钻机的计划持乐观态度，同时在方案中保有足够的灵活性，可根据需要随时调整。
Matt Portillo
Perfect. And maybe a follow-up on the marketing side. I know as an organization, you guys have been very thoughtful about this process through the cycle. The basin, it looks like there's possibly some solutions on the horizon for incremental gas takeaway. And just curious how you all might be thinking about potentially adding to your takeaway portfolio from a gas marketing perspective?
很好。我想就销售端跟进一个问题。我知道贵公司在整个周期中对这一流程一直考虑得很周全。目前来看，该盆地在天然气外输方面似乎有一些增量解决方案正在浮现。想请问你们在天然气销售层面，是否在考虑扩充外输组合？
And then maybe dovetailing into that. On the crude oil side, could you just remind us when some of those contracts start to roll over? And if there's any tailwinds to the financials kind of moving forward over the next few years around crude oil marketing?
顺带着原油方面，能否提醒我们这些合同何时开始陆续到期？未来几年在原油销售方面，财务层面是否存在一些顺风因素？
Vicki Hollub
Yes. Matt, we really have enough gas capacity and as much as we feel like we need at this point and with respect to our growth profile. And for the oil side of it, the contracts start rolling off in 2025 for the oil and gas -- for the oil part of the contract. So we have plenty of capacity. At that time, I think it will take probably a couple of years to get us down to the point where all the contracts are lost.
Matt，就天然气而言，我们目前的运输能力已经充足，与我们的增长预期相匹配，不需要进一步扩充。原油方面，合同将从 2025 年开始陆续到期。届时我们的运输能力依然充裕，但要等到所有合同全部到期，我估计可能还需要大约两年时间。
Operator
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Neal Dingmann at Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann，请提问。
Neal Dingmann
Vicki, my first question maybe for you. You mentioned just a couple of minutes ago here, you thought you maybe would ramp the chemicals. And obviously, as a finance guy that just continues to be. I know when I saw Rob in December, and it just continues to get better and better. I guess my question is as a financial guy, how much can you grow that? And would that grow in conjunction with your low carbon emission business? I know you talked about that in the past. I'm just wondering how much could you push that business given it just continues to hit it off the part on that one.
Vicki，第一个问题想请教你。你刚才提到你们可能会扩大化工业务的规模。从财务角度来看，这块业务的表现显然一直持续向好——我记得 12 月见到 Rob 时就已经如此，之后只会越来越好。我的问题是，从财务角度出发，这块业务还有多大的增长空间？它的增长会与低碳业务形成协同联动吗？我知道你们过去提到过这一点，想了解考虑到这块业务持续超预期表现，你们能在多大程度上继续推进它。
Vicki Hollub
I think we'll talk about that a little bit more as we talk about the project and the capital that we're executing to convert our diaphragm to membranes, because that's going to improve some efficiency in the areas where we're doing that conversion. So, we'll actually increase -- be able to increase our capacity. And we'll outline that and detail that a little more in the next earnings call because right now, we're currently in the process of doing the FEED study on that.
我想，等我们谈到将隔膜法转换为膜法技术的项目及其资本执行情况时，会对这个问题有更多阐述——因为这项转换将显著提升相关区域的运营效率，从而实际增加我们的产能。我们会在下次财报电话会议上对此作更详细的说明，因为目前我们正处于该项目前端工程设计研究阶段。
For today, with respect to other opportunities, we will continue to consider incoming calls about potential partnerships where it makes sense to do projects with either customers or more from the perspective of supporting Low Carbon Ventures. We try to be opportunistic in chemicals and not build without a -- certainly the demand for the product. And so on the Low Carbon Ventures side, where, as we go through this, finding opportunities where there are synergies and growing synergies between the Chemicals business and the low carbon business. So it will have some growth around that.
就目前而言，在其他机会方面，我们将继续评估各方提出的潜在合作意向——无论是与客户合作推进项目，还是从支持低碳业务的角度出发开展合作，只要有意义我们都会认真考虑。在化工业务方面，我们倾向于把握时机、因势而动，绝不在没有确定产品需求的前提下盲目扩产。在低碳业务方面，随着推进深入，我们正在寻找化工业务与低碳业务之间的协同机会，并持续扩大这种协同效应。这一方向上将会有一定的增长。
Neal Dingmann
No, that's great to hear. And then just a second. You talked to just a minute also about the DJ, and my thought is it sounds like some of the firm production is to replace DJ this year. Is that going to be the case going forward? And is that because you're talking about -- I know Richard talking about permitting all in shape. I'm just wondering what's sort of the reason or rationale for why not just grow both of these? I mean, I'm looking at that.
很好，很高兴听到这些。再问一个问题。你们刚才也提到了 DJ 盆地，我的理解是：今年似乎有一部分产量增长是用来弥补 DJ 的减量。这种情况会持续下去吗？我知道 Richard 提到许可证方面一切都在推进，但我想知道——为何不考虑两个盆地同步增长？这是什么考量？
Vicki Hollub
Yes. It just -- it really just depends on the permitting process because we do have really good inventory in the DJ Basin as well. And as we go forward and we work out the process, if we get ahead on the permitting, we would consider adding a rig to the -- or a rig or two to the DJ as well.
这主要还是取决于许可证的审批进程，因为我们在 DJ 盆地同样拥有非常优质的井库储量。随着流程的推进，一旦我们在许可证方面取得领先，我们会考虑在 DJ 盆地增加一台乃至两台钻机。
Operator
Thank you. Our next question today comes from David Deckelbaum at Cowen. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Cowen 的 David Deckelbaum，请提问。
David Deckelbaum
Thanks for all the details today, Vicki and team, and congrats on the visibility of $20 billion of debt. I wanted to ask just on the sustaining capital. There were lots of in and out, particularly around the Gulf of Mexico and the EOR catch up, some normalization of Rockies DUCs. I guess, when we think about that delta between the 2-8 or 2-9 that you guys had talked about last year, kind of in the $400 million increment this year, how do we think about that sustaining capital level progressing into the out years now? Does it have some upwards pressure on it because of catch ups? Or should we look at this as a catch-up year, and that should moderate, potentially decline along with base declines moderating?
感谢 Vicki 和团队今天提供的所有细节，也恭喜你们对 200 亿美元债务目标已有清晰的路径展望。我想就维持性资本提一个问题。今年有很多进出项，尤其是墨西哥湾和 EOR 的补偿性投入，以及 Rockies 已钻未完井的正常化。去年你们谈到的维持性资本是 28 亿或 29 亿美元，今年大约增加了 4 亿美元。我想了解，这个维持性资本水平未来几年的走势应该如何看待？它是否会因为补偿性投入而持续承压上行？还是说今年是一个集中补偿年，之后应该会趋于缓和，乃至随着基础递减率的改善而有所下降？
Richard Jackson
Maybe we'll start with onshore and speak to that a little bit. I think you've got it right. I think if you look over the last couple of years and what's happened, certainly, 2020 had a significant reset for us in terms of activity levels. And so preserving cash investment at that point and really dropped activity levels almost completely.
我们先从陆上资产谈起。我认为你的判断方向是对的。回顾过去几年的情况，2020 年对我们的作业活动水平造成了大幅重置，为保存现金，当时的作业活动几乎降至接近停滞的状态。
And so coming on the back half and into 2021, we had things like the DUCs in the DJ that allowed us that ability to add production and maximize cash flow for 2021 with a lot less capital investment. And so what happened last year was really, as we think about the transition, it went from transitioning from DUCs as we restored activity really to drilling and completion, which is a much more steady-state pipeline for our production delivery.
进入 2021 年下半年，DJ 盆地的已钻未完井储备使我们得以在投入较少资本的情况下增加产量、最大化现金流。因此，去年发生的事情，从过渡的角度来看，实际上是从消化已钻未完井切换到恢复正常的钻探与完井作业——后者是一种更为稳定持续的产量交付模式。
And so the way that played out was really at the end of the fourth quarter, beginning of the first quarter, we were able to pick up our drilling in frac cores to sustain the production for this year, which did a couple of things. One, it was good because as we head into inflationary period, we were able to gain activity and create that stability within our capital program.
具体来看，在第四季度末和第一季度初，我们提升了钻井和压裂作业强度，为今年的产量提供支撑。这带来了几方面的效果：其一，在我们进入通胀环境之际，我们得以锁定作业资源，在资本计划中构建稳定性，这是有益的。
But what it does is it did create a bit of a lump that we have most of our wells online really starting late in the first quarter, and then you hit more steady state in the second and third quarter. And so, as that projects into the end of the year and into 2023, you can tell from our first quarter guidance to total year that we do have an increase of production.
但另一方面，这也造成了一定程度的产量集中效应——大多数新井要到第一季度末才开始投产，第二、三季度才进入更为平稳的状态。从第一季度指引与全年指引的对比可以看出，今年产量确实呈现出逐步提升的走势，这一趋势也将延伸至年底乃至 2023 年。
But those type events as well as restoring activity really from a cash investment perspective and EOR, adding low decline production barrels really gives us a much more sustainable production level across the cycle. And so I think we're restoring, as you said, a much more normal steady-state activity level and a much more robust or sustainable free cash flow capability.
但正是这些事件，加上从现金投资角度恢复正常作业活动，以及 EOR 新增低递减率产量桶数，使我们在整个周期内拥有了更具可持续性的产量水平。因此，正如你所说，我认为我们正在回归更为正常的稳态作业水平，以及更为稳健、可持续的自由现金流生成能力。
Vicki Hollub
Nothing, considering the rest of the portfolio, we don't see a lot of upward pressure for the 3.2 as a whole.
综合考虑其余资产组合，我们认为 32 亿美元的整体维持性资本水平不会承受太大的上行压力。
Rob Peterson
And David, just to add to your point, I mean on top of what Richard and Vicki just went through, I mean, from a decline standpoint, as you know, we improved the base decline from 25% two years ago to 22% last year, and it's the same this year. It's at 22% as well. But given the things Richard said, that gives potential to flatten that out of it in the future.
David，补充一点：在 Richard 和 Vicki 刚才所说的基础上，从递减率角度来看，如你所知，我们已将基础递减率从两年前的 25% 改善至去年的 22%，今年同样维持在 22%。结合 Richard 所说的那些因素，这为我们未来进一步压平递减率提供了潜力。
David Deckelbaum
I appreciate all the color on that. And if I could just ask a quick follow-up. Just the -- so I'm understanding, there was $400 million, I think, that was attributed to the difference to the low end versus the high end of capital guide, which I think you talked about Low Carbon ventures spend, that would be potential in OBO. I guess for the Low Carbon Ventures spend, would that just be accelerating some projects? Or is it the contingency for things that you're considering doing but aren't sure if you want to pursue at this point? I guess how do we think about that sort of allowance that's built in to the difference in the low and the high end?
感谢所有这些信息。我还有一个简短的追问。如我理解正确，资本指引区间高低端之间约 4 亿美元的差异，主要来自低碳业务的潜在支出。请问这部分低碳业务支出是用于加速某些项目的推进？还是作为一些尚在评估、尚未确定是否推进的项目的备用预算？我们应该如何理解这个内嵌在指引区间中的弹性空间？
Richard Jackson
Yes. This is Richard again. I think you've got it right from the standpoint of really the LCV capital certainly focused meaningfully on our direct air capture plant 1. So there is a project time line associated with that, where engineering is going great. The commercial aspects of the project continue to be supportive. And so there's a little bit of uncertainty there, but that component, we'll have more visibility and be able to talk more about even with you next month.
是的，我是 Richard。从低碳业务资本的角度来看，你的判断是正确的——这部分资本目前主要聚焦在我们的第一个直接空气捕获工厂项目上。该项目有对应的推进时间表，工程进展顺利，项目的商业层面也持续呈现支撑态势。虽然仍存在一定的不确定性，但这一部分我们将在下个月有更清晰的进展可以分享。
In addition to that, what's happened is really beyond strong engineering progress, we continue to have good commercial support, whether that's global policy recognition for carbon capture or even direct air capture, in particular, or even with strategic net-zero businesses. And so these things support commerciality.
除此之外，在工程取得强劲进展之外，我们在商业层面也持续获得有力支持——无论是全球政策层面对碳捕获乃至直接空气捕获的认可，还是战略性净零排放企业的参与，这些都为项目的商业可行性提供了支撑。
And so what's happened is we do see additional opportunities for direct air capture. For example, we had an opportunity in Canada to look at with a developer direct air capture with air to fuels. And so a bit of that money is as these projects become more opportunistic, we would allocate some feasibility capital to be able to look at these other type projects.
在此背景下，我们确实看到了直接空气捕获领域的更多机会。例如，我们在加拿大发现了一个与开发商合作、探索直接空气捕获与合成燃料结合的机会。因此，随着这类项目变得更具机会性，我们会将部分资金用于可行性研究，以评估这些新类型项目。
The final piece is really our CCUS, and you've probably seen some pieces around projects that we're involved with. And so those continue moving beyond into commercial development. And so we have some capital associated to continue those. But that, again, be able to share more in March around that, but look forward to these projects advancing meaningfully this year.
最后一部分是我们的碳捕获、利用与封存（CCUS）业务，你可能已经看到了一些我们参与的相关项目信息。这些项目正在持续推进至商业化开发阶段，我们也配置了相应资本予以支持。同样，我们将在 3 月份分享更多相关进展，期待这些项目在今年取得实质性推进。
Operator
And ladies and gentlemen, our final question today comes from Raphaël DuBois with Societe Generale. Please go ahead.
女士们、先生们，今天的最后一个问题来自 Societe Generale 的 Raphaël DuBois，请提问。
Raphaël DuBois
The first one is related to your EOR business. Could you maybe tell us a bit more how production in this division has trended since you stopped reporting it as a single entity? And also, I was wondering if the extra CapEx you will throw at this business is solely to stop decline? Or whether you intend to restart growing this business as well?
第一个问题关于你们的 EOR 业务。自从你们不再将其作为独立板块单独披露以来，这一业务的产量走势如何？另外，你们计划向这块业务追加的资本支出，是单纯为了遏制产量递减，还是也有意重启这一业务的增长？
Rob Peterson
Maybe I'll start with the EOR just a little bit. As we think about the last couple of years, I'd say the opportunity in front of us really to address any decline that we've seen is really -- and this comes to our OpEx, when we talk about that, that's really restoration of maintenance and specifically down hole maintenance. And so the ability to allocate some of that cash investment to restore down production is some of the best cash investment we have.
我先就 EOR 作一些说明。回顾过去几年，我认为我们面前的机会，主要是针对我们所看到的产量递减采取应对措施——这与我们的运营支出密切相关，具体来说是恢复正常的维护工作，尤其是井下维护。将部分资本投入用于恢复下降的产量，是我们回报率最高的资本配置之一。
It's very high return even at mid-cycle prices. And so we expect to be able to -- and have added some well service rigs to add up to 6,000 barrels a day by year-end. And that really restores the normal backlog and maintenance schedule that we had really going back to 2019. So that's the most meaningful change in terms of the EOR business that we're approaching this year.
即便在中周期价格水平下，这类投入的回报率也相当高。因此，我们预计通过增加修井作业机组，到年底可新增产量约每日 6,000 桶。这实际上是在恢复我们在 2019 年之前的正常维护积压处理节奏与维护计划。这是我们今年在 EOR 业务方面最具实质意义的变化。
Raphaël DuBois
Excellent. And my follow-up will be actually on Algeria. I see that you're going to have some activity there in 2022. I was wondering if you could tell us a bit more what you have in store for the for this part of the world, knowing that we, in Europe, are going to need much more gas from other suppliers. And it will be great if you had some projects, some gas projects in Algeria, for instance.
很好。我的追问是关于阿尔及利亚的。我注意到你们 2022 年在那里将有一些作业活动。考虑到欧洲将需要来自其他供应商的更多天然气，能否介绍一下你们在这一地区有何规划？如果在阿尔及利亚有一些天然气项目就更好了。
Ken Dillon
It's Ken here. First of all, I'd say the operations team had a great year last year and achieved a 50,000-barrel-a-day milestone. On the contract side, we spent the time optimizing the future development plans that you're sort of alluding to. And we worked through the legal framework around the new hydrocarbon law, which is designed to encourage for an investment in the country.
我是 Ken。首先，我想说运营团队去年表现出色，实现了每日 5 万桶的里程碑产量。在合同层面，我们用这段时间对你所提及的未来开发计划进行了优化，并梳理了新碳氢化合物法相关的法律框架——该法律旨在鼓励对阿尔及利亚的投资。
This year, we'll drill four wells. There'll be two injectors, two producers. And we've now started negotiations with Sonatrach and went the early stages. It was a large American company with state-of-the-art shale capabilities. We think we have a lot to offer the country going forward. And hopefully, the ops in Europe are also. We'll keep you updated on our progress at the next call.
今年我们计划钻探四口井，其中两口注入井、两口生产井。我们目前已与 Sonatrach 启动谈判，目前处于早期阶段。作为一家拥有顶尖页岩开发能力的大型美国公司，我们认为未来能够为阿尔及利亚带来很多价值，希望这也能惠及欧洲市场。我们将在下次电话会议上向大家通报最新进展。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Vicki Hollub for any closing remarks.
谢谢大家。女士们，先生们，这次问答环节到此结束。我想把会议交还给维基·霍拉布，让她做最后的总结发言。
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
Before we go, I'd like to say that we stand in firm condemnation of the insane and inhumane actions taken by Putin and Russia to invade Ukraine. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all the people of Ukraine.
在我们离开之前，我想说我们坚决谴责普京和俄罗斯对乌克兰的疯狂和不人道的侵略行为。我们的思念和祈祷与乌克兰的所有人民同在。
Thank you all for your questions for joining our call today.
感谢大家今天参加我们的电话会议并提出问题。
Operator 操作员
Thank you, ma'am. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
谢谢您，女士。今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢大家参加今天的演示。您现在可以断开连接，祝您有美好的一天。
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