2022-02-25 Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) Q4 2021 Earnings Conference Call February 25, 2022 1:00 PM ET
西方石油公司 (纽约证券交易所：OXY) 2021 年第四季度财报电话会议 2022 年 2 月 25 日下午 1:00（东部时间）
Company Participants 公司参与者
Jeff Alvarez - Vice President of Investor Relations
杰夫·阿尔瓦雷斯 - 投资者关系副总裁
Vicki Hollub - President & Chief Executive Officer
维基·霍卢布 - 总裁兼首席执行官
Rob Peterson - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
罗伯·彼得森 - 高级副总裁兼首席财务官
Ken Dillon - President, International Oil and Gas Operations
肯·迪伦 - 国际石油和天然气业务总裁
Richard Jackson - President, Operations, U.S. Onshore Resources and Carbon Management
理查德·杰克逊 - 总裁，美国陆上资源与碳管理部
Conference Call Participants
会议电话参与者
Jeanine Wai - Barclays 珍妮娜·韦 - 巴克莱
Phil Gresh - JPMorgan 菲尔·格雷什 - 摩根大通
Doug Leggate - Bank of America
道格·莱格特 - 美国银行
Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs
尼尔·梅塔 - 高盛
Matt Portillo - TPH 马特·波蒂略 - TPH
Neal Dingmann - Truist Securities
尼尔·丁曼 - Truist 证券
David Deckelbaum - Cowen 大卫·德克尔鲍姆 - 考恩
Raphaël DuBois - Societe Generale
拉斐尔·杜布瓦 - 法国巴黎银行
Operator 操作员
Good afternoon, and welcome to Occidental's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask question. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.
下午好，欢迎参加西方石油公司 2021 年第四季度财报电话会议。所有参与者将处于仅听模式。[操作员说明] 在今天的演讲结束后，将有机会提问。[操作员说明] 请注意，此活动正在录音。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Alvarez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
我现在想把会议交给投资者关系副总裁杰夫·阿尔瓦雷斯。请继续。
Jeff Alvarez 杰夫·阿尔瓦雷斯
Thank you, Rocco. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in Occidental's Fourth quarter 2021 Conference Call. On the call with us today are Vicki Hollub, President and Chief Executive Officer; Rob Peterson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Ken Dillon, President, International Oil and Gas Operations; and Richard Jackson, President, Operations, U.S. Onshore Resources and Carbon Management.
谢谢你，罗科。大家下午好，感谢大家参加西方石油公司 2021 年第四季度的电话会议。今天与我们通话的有：总裁兼首席执行官维基·霍拉布，资深副总裁兼首席财务官罗布·彼得森，国际石油和天然气业务总裁肯·迪伦，以及美国陆上资源和碳管理业务总裁理查德·杰克逊。
This afternoon, we will refer to slides available on the Investors section of our website. The presentation includes a cautionary statement on Slide 2 regarding forward-looking statements that will be made on the call this afternoon.
今天下午，我们将参考我们网站投资者部分提供的幻灯片。演示文稿在第二张幻灯片中包含了一项关于今天下午电话会议中将作出的前瞻性声明的警示性声明。
I'll now turn the call over to Vicki. Vicki, please go ahead.
我现在把电话交给维基。维基，请继续。
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. The fourth quarter of 2021 was a fitting year -- a fitting way to end the year where Oxy's operational and financial performance advanced from strong to stronger. Our focus on consistently delivering outstanding operational results, combined with our steadfast dedication and patience in improving our balance sheet, has positioned us to begin increasing the amount of capital returned to shareholders. Our new shareholder return framework, which we will detail today, includes a dividend that is sustainable in a low price environment. We are pleased to implement this new framework, beginning with an increase in the quarterly common dividend to $0.13 per share.
谢谢你，杰夫，大家下午好。2021 年第四季度是一个合适的年份——一个合适的方式来结束这一年，Oxy 的运营和财务表现从强劲提升到更强劲。我们专注于持续提供卓越的运营成果，加上我们在改善资产负债表方面的坚定奉献和耐心，使我们能够开始增加返还给股东的资本金额。我们今天将详细介绍的新股东回报框架，包括在低价格环境下可持续的股息。我们很高兴实施这一新框架，首先将季度普通股息提高至每股 0.13 美元。
The position of strength that we are in today stems from our team's hard work and accomplishments last year. Throughout 2021, we strived tirelessly to improve our already exceptional operational performance. We capitalized on efficiency improvements by embedding innovative techniques across our operations. Our focus on learning, implementing change, where needed, and maximizing opportunities for improvement enabled us to accelerate time to market for our products while generating notable capital saving. We will continue to maximize operational efficiencies in 2022 by executing on the capital plan that invest in our highest-return assets to generate long-term sustainable free cash flow.
我们今天所处的强势地位源于我们团队去年辛勤的工作和成就。在 2021 年，我们不懈努力，提升我们已经卓越的运营表现。我们通过在运营中嵌入创新技术，充分利用效率提升。我们专注于学习、实施必要的变革，并最大化改进机会，使我们能够加快产品上市时间，同时实现显著的资本节省。我们将在 2022 年继续通过执行资本计划来最大化运营效率，该计划投资于我们最高回报的资产，以产生长期可持续的自由现金流。
This afternoon, I will begin by covering our fourth quarter and full year 2021 highlights and achievements, before detailing our 2022 capital budget. Rob and I will then discuss our shareholder return framework, and Rob will provide guidance for the first quarter and year ahead.
今天下午，我将首先介绍我们 2021 年第四季度和全年的亮点与成就，然后详细说明我们 2022 年的资本预算。Rob 和我将讨论我们的股东回报框架，Rob 还将提供对第一季度和未来一年的指导。
Before turning to Q&A at the end, I will provide a preview of the Low Carbon Ventures investor update that we have planned for next month.
在最后的问答环节之前，我将提供我们计划在下个月进行的低碳投资者更新的预览。
Now to talk about delivering cash flow priorities. Those who have followed us at Oxy's journey over the past several quarters know that our cash flow priorities have centered around derisking our balance sheet and reducing debt. We diligently delivered on these cash flow priorities throughout 2021, including the repayment of approximately $6.7 billion of debt. We now expect that our net debt will be below $25 billion by the end of the first quarter of 2022, which will mark a change in how excess cash flow will be allocated going forward.
现在来谈谈现金流优先事项的交付。那些在过去几个季度关注我们 Oxy 旅程的人知道，我们的现金流优先事项集中在降低资产负债表风险和减少债务上。我们在 2021 年全力以赴地实现了这些现金流优先事项，包括偿还约 67 亿美元的债务。我们现在预计，到 2022 年第一季度末，我们的净债务将低于 250 亿美元，这将标志着未来多余现金流分配方式的变化。
Before I detail our updated cash flow priorities and shareholder return framework, I would like to first touch on a few of the many operational and financial successes that enabled us to reach this significant turning point.
在我详细说明我们更新的现金流优先事项和股东回报框架之前，我想先谈谈一些使我们能够达到这一重要转折点的众多运营和财务成功。
2021 was a year of continuous operational improvements, which drove record free cash flow generation, rapid debt reduction and a return to profitability. One of Oxy's core strength is our ability to develop assets in a way that efficiently maximizes production and recovery while generating significant cash flow and that is just what we did in 2021. Multiple drilling and completion records were set across our domestic and international businesses as our production for the year averaged 1.167 million BOE per day. That's 27,000 BOE per day higher than our initial guidance.
2021 年是持续运营改进的一年，这推动了创纪录的自由现金流生成、快速的债务减少和盈利能力的恢复。Oxy 的核心优势之一是我们能够以高效的方式开发资产，最大化生产和回收，同时产生显著的现金流，这正是我们在 2021 年所做的。我们在国内和国际业务中创下了多个钻探和完井记录，全年生产平均为 116.7 万桶油当量每天。这比我们最初的指导高出 27,000 桶油当量每天。
2021 was also a more conventional year in terms of commodity prices, operations and planning, all of which was helpful in providing a reserve update that reflects a more normalized price environment. Our reserves for year-end 2021 increased to 3.5 billion BOE, representing a reserve replacement ratio of 241%. Our reserves position means that we have a vast supply of low breakeven projects and inventory available. We have included updated inventory information for our U.S. onshore operations in the appendix to this presentation.
2021 年在商品价格、运营和规划方面也是一个更为常规的年份，这有助于提供反映更正常化价格环境的储量更新。到 2021 年底，我们的储量增加到 35 亿桶油当量，储量替代率为 241%。我们的储量状况意味着我们拥有大量低盈亏平衡项目和可用库存。我们在本次演示文稿的附录中包含了我们美国陆上业务的更新库存信息。
仅够8年开采的量。
Over the last year, we significantly advanced our commitments toward a low-carbon future. We are proud to be one of only a few oil and gas companies with net-zero goals that are aligned with the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree Celsius pathway. In December, Oxy became the first U.S. upstream oil and gas company to enter into a sustainability-linked revolving credit facility, which includes absolute reductions in our combined Scopes 1 and 2 CO2 equivalent emissions as the key performance indicator. We set additional interim emission targets to further refine our net-zero pathway, including a short-term target to reduce our CO2 equivalent emissions to approximately 3.7 million metric tons per year below our 2021 level and to accomplish that by 2024.
在过去的一年里，我们在实现低碳未来的承诺方面取得了显著进展。我们自豪地成为少数几个与《巴黎协定》1.5 摄氏度路径相一致的净零目标的石油和天然气公司之一。去年 12 月，Oxy 成为第一家进入可持续发展挂钩循环信贷设施的美国上游石油和天然气公司，该设施将我们合并的范围 1 和范围 2 二氧化碳当量排放的绝对减少作为关键绩效指标。我们设定了额外的中期排放目标，以进一步细化我们的净零路径，包括一个短期目标，即在 2024 年之前将我们的二氧化碳当量排放减少到比 2021 年水平低约 370 万吨。
We set a medium-term target to facilitate the geologic storage or use of 25 million metric tons per year of CO2 and Oxy value chain by 2032. We also endorsed the Methane Guiding Principles and Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0, a Climate and Clean Air Coalition initiative led by the United Nations Environment program. This is consistent with our commitment to enhance methane emissions reporting and reducing those emissions. Our journey towards net zero is underway, and we look forward to discussing in greater detail at our Low Carbon Ventures Investor Day next month.
我们设定了一个中期目标，到 2032 年每年促进 2500 万吨二氧化碳和氧气价值链的地质储存或利用。我们还支持《甲烷指导原则》和《石油和天然气甲烷伙伴关系 2.0》，这是由联合国环境规划署主导的气候与清洁空气联盟倡议。这与我们增强甲烷排放报告和减少这些排放的承诺是一致的。我们朝着净零排放的旅程正在进行中，我们期待在下个月的低碳投资者日上进行更详细的讨论。
Now the fourth quarter highlights. The strong operational and financial performance that we delivered throughout last year continued in the fourth quarter. We set a fourth consecutive record for quarterly free cash flow generation before working capital, which contributed to generating our highest-ever annual level of free cash flow in 2021. We continue to apply free cash flow towards reducing debt and strengthening our balance sheet, repaying an additional $2.2 billion of debt in the fourth quarter.
现在是第四季度的亮点。我们在去年整个年度交付的强劲运营和财务表现持续到了第四季度。我们连续第四次创下季度自由现金流生成的记录，这为我们在 2021 年创造了有史以来最高的年度自由现金流水平做出了贡献。我们继续将自由现金流用于减少债务和增强资产负债表，在第四季度偿还了额外的 22 亿美元债务。
Operationally, all three business segments excelled in driving our robust financial performance, OxyChem delivered record earnings for the second consecutive quarter as performance throughout the year culminated in 2021 being OxyChem's strongest in over 30 years. The fourth quarter, which is typically lower due to seasonality, even exceeded the record third quarter. And in our Oil and Gas segment, our Permian, Rockies and Oman teams set new operational records and efficiency benchmarks in the fourth quarter, further improving on their third quarter record.
在运营方面，所有三个业务板块都在推动我们强劲的财务表现方面表现出色。OxyChem连续第二个季度创下了历史最高盈利记录，全年表现卓越，使2021年成为OxyChem过去30多年来最强劲的一年。即使是通常因季节性因素而较低的第四季度，也超越了创纪录的第三季度。在我们的石油和天然气板块中，我们在Permian盆地、落基山脉和阿曼的团队在第四季度创造了新的运营记录和效率基准，进一步改善了第三季度的记录。
Our midstream business outperformed by maximizing gas margins during the fourth quarter while short-term opportunities in the commodity markets are difficult to predict, our midstream team excels at finding and taking full advantage of such opportunities when they arise.
我们的中游业务在第四季度通过最大化天然气利润表现优异，尽管商品市场的短期机会难以预测，但我们的中游团队擅长在机会出现时找到并充分利用这些机会。
Now I'm pleased to say that our fourth quarter results continued to demonstrate the commitment of all of our employees, no matter their position or location, to find ways to further create value by lowering costs, improving efficiencies and maximizing recoveries. They truly are driving our strong financial results and providing a solid foundation for free cash flow generation.
现在我很高兴地说，我们第四季度的业绩继续展示了所有员工的承诺，无论他们的职位或地点，都会寻找进一步创造价值的方法，通过降低成本、提高效率和最大化回收。他们确实推动了我们强劲的财务业绩，并为自由现金流的产生提供了坚实的基础。
Now on to 2021 oil and gas operational excellence. On each of our last several calls, I've enjoyed highlighting the many operational achievements our teams continuously deliver. The magnitude of these achievements is striking when viewed on a combined basis over the last year. We established record drilling cycle times in the Gulf Mexico, the Permian, Rockies and in Oman, and set new efficiency benchmarks across our portfolio in 2021. We intend to maintain our focus on continuous improvement in the year ahead as we work to maximize the value our portfolio can generate for shareholders.
现在谈谈 2021 年石油和天然气的运营卓越。在我们最近几次的电话会议中，我很高兴能够强调我们的团队不断取得的许多运营成就。从整体上看，这些成就的规模令人瞩目。我们在墨西哥湾、二叠纪、落基山脉和阿曼创下了钻井周期时间的记录，并在 2021 年设定了我们投资组合的新效率基准。我们打算在未来一年继续专注于持续改进，以最大化我们的投资组合为股东创造的价值。
Now our 2022 capital plan. Our 2022 capital plan invest in cash flow longevity while building on the capital intensity leadership we demonstrated in 2021. We have sized our capital plan to sustain production in 2022 at 1.155 million BOE per day, while investing in high-return projects that will provide cash flow stability throughout the cycle. We have also incorporated an expectation for inflation and a capital range to reflect the potential for fluctuations in our third-party-operated assets and our low-carbon opportunities during the year.
现在来谈谈我们2022年的资本计划。我们的2022年资本计划旨在投资于现金流的长期性，同时在2021年展示的资本强度领导地位的基础上进一步发展。我们已确定了一个资本计划，以维持2022年每日115.5万桶油当量的产量，同时投资于高回报项目，以在整个周期内提供现金流的稳定性。我们还考虑了通胀预期，并设定了一个资本范围，以反映我们第三方运营资产和低碳机会在全年内可能出现的波动。
Our sustaining capital, which we define as the capital required to sustain production in the $40 WTI environment over a multiyear period, remains industry-leading. Our multiyear sustaining capital is expected to increase from our 2021 capital budget of $2.9 billion, the reduced inventory of drilling uncompleted wells and additional investment in our Gulf of Mexico and EOR assets to optimize the long-term productivity of our reservoirs and facilities. If the macro environment requires spending below our multiyear sustaining capital, we have the ability to reduce it further and hold production flat for shorter periods of time as we've demonstrated.
我们的维持资本，即我们定义为在40美元WTI环境下维持生产所需的多年度资本，仍然处于行业领先地位。预计我们的多年度维持资本将从2021年的29亿美元资本预算增加，这包括减少未完井钻井库存以及对墨西哥湾和EOR（增强型油气采收）资产的额外投资，以优化我们油藏和设施的长期生产力。如果宏观环境要求低于我们的多年度维持资本支出，我们有能力进一步减少支出，并在较短时间内维持生产持平，正如我们已经展示的那样。
We're also investing in attractive mid-cycle projects that will provide cash flow stability through the cycle in future years. For example, these projects include the Al Hosn expansion, which began last year. And OxyChem is in the process of completing a seed study to modernize certain Gulf Coast for alkali assets from diaphram to membrane technology.
我们还在投资有吸引力的中期项目，这些项目将在未来几年内提供现金流的稳定性。例如，这些项目包括去年开始的 Al Hosn 扩展。此外，OxyChem 正在完成一项种子研究，以现代化某些海湾沿岸的碱性资产，从隔膜技术转向膜技术。
Our capital plan also includes investments to advance our net-zero pathway, including reducing emissions, improving energy efficiency and developing our carbon sequestration initiative. We're allocating capital in the budget to 1.5 to begin construction on the first direct air capture facility. We continue to make progress on both the engineering and commercial needs for direct air capture development. We're improving both of these aspects and believe Oxy's capital helps retain value for our shareholders.
我们的资本计划还包括投资以推进我们的净零排放路径，包括减少排放、提高能源效率和发展我们的碳捕集计划。我们在预算中分配资金以开始建设第一个直接空气捕集设施。我们在直接空气捕集开发的工程和商业需求方面持续取得进展。我们正在改善这两个方面，并相信 Oxy 的资本有助于为我们的股东保留价值。
As the construction phase and technology of this new project advance, we will continue to consider strategic capital partnerships and structures to address financing. We'll provide more comprehensive update on 1.5 in direct air capture at our March 23 LCV investor update. We benefited greatly from commodity price rebound last and appreciate how swiftly the price environment can change.
随着这一新项目的建设阶段和技术的推进，我们将继续考虑战略资本合作伙伴关系和结构来解决融资问题。我们将在3月23日的低碳投资者更新会上提供有关1.5级直接空气捕集的更全面的更新。我们去年受益于大宗商品价格的反弹，也深知价格环境的变化速度之快。
The optionality that our scale and asset base provide enables us to retain a high degree of flexibility in our capital and spending plans. The majority of our capital program is comprised of short-cycle investments, meaning that we have the ability to quickly adapt to changes in the macro environment. Within six months or less, if necessary, we can reduce capital spending to sustaining levels. And if oil prices remain supportive this year, our intent is to follow our cash flow priorities and capital framework that we will share with you today. We have no need and no intent to invest in production growth this year.
我们规模和资产基础所提供的选择性使我们在资本和支出计划中保持高度灵活性。我们资本计划的大部分由短周期投资组成，这意味着我们能够迅速适应宏观环境的变化。如果有必要，我们可以在六个月内或更短时间内将资本支出减少到维持水平。如果今年油价保持支持，我们的意图是遵循我们的现金流优先事项和今天将与您分享的资本框架。我们今年没有必要也没有意图投资于生产增长。
Having a flexible capital budget that includes investment and cash flow longevity provides us and puts us in a strong position to implement shareholder return framework that will benefit shareholders over the long term. With respect to cash flow priorities, our priorities for 2022 remain largely unchanged, with a continuing emphasis on reducing debt while maintaining our asset base integrity and sustainability. The objective of strengthening our financial position remains the same. It enabled us to confidently increase the amount of capital that we may sustainably return to shareholders throughout the cycle.
拥有灵活的资本预算，包括投资和现金流的可持续性，使我们处于一个强有力的位置，以实施有利于股东长期利益的股东回报框架。关于现金流的优先事项，我们 2022 年的优先事项基本保持不变，继续强调在保持资产基础完整性和可持续性的同时减少债务。加强我们财务状况的目标保持不变。这使我们能够自信地增加在整个周期中可持续地回报给股东的资本金额。
As we expect net debt to fall below $25 billion by the end of the first quarter, our focus has expanded to returning capital to shareholders, beginning with the increase in our common dividend to $0.13 per share and the reactivation and expansion of our share repurchase program. The increase in the dividend to $0.13 per share is consistent with our intention to initially increase the dividend to a level that approximates the yield of the S&P 500.
由于我们预计到第一季度末净债务将降至 250 亿美元以下，我们的重点已扩大到向股东返还资本，首先是将普通股股息提高至每股 0.13 美元，并重新启动和扩展我们的股票回购计划。将股息提高至每股 0.13 美元与我们最初将股息提高到接近标准普尔 500 指数收益率的意图是一致的。
We believe establishing framework for returning capital to shareholders through a sustainable common dividend, combined with an active share repurchase program and continued debt reduction, creates an attractive value proposition for shareholders, while also improving the Company's long-term financial position. For the first phase of our shareholder return framework initiated, we have the options in future years to invest in cash flow growth.
我们相信，通过可持续的普通股息建立资本回报给股东的框架，结合积极的股票回购计划和持续的债务减少，为股东创造了一个有吸引力的价值主张，同时也改善了公司的长期财务状况。在我们启动的股东回报框架的第一阶段，我们在未来几年有机会投资于现金流增长。
We have the ability to grow oil and gas cash flow through higher production, but also have multiple investment opportunities across our other businesses. As evidenced by our guidance for 2022, we do not intend to grow production in 2022. At the point where it is appropriate to invest in future cash flow growth, we will only do so if supported by long-term demand. Any future production growth will be limited to an average annual rate of approximately 5%.
我们有能力通过提高产量来增加石油和天然气的现金流，但在其他业务中也有多种投资机会。正如我们对 2022 年的指导所表明的，我们不打算在 2022 年增加产量。在适合投资未来现金流增长的时点，我们只会在长期需求支持的情况下进行投资。未来的产量增长将限制在大约 5%的年均增长率。
I'll now turn the call over to Rob, who will walk you through our shareholder return framework.
我现在将电话交给罗布，他将为您介绍我们的股东回报框架。
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Thank you, Vicki, and good afternoon. As Vicki mentioned, the first phase of our shareholder return framework consists of the debt reduction, an increase in the common dividend of $0.13 per share and the reactivation expansion of our share repurchase program. With net debt expected to be below $25 billion by the end of the first quarter, we are ready to begin returning more capital to shareholders, but we'll continue to prioritize debt reduction to focus on our medium-term goal of regaining our investment-grade credit rating.
谢谢你，维基，下午好。正如维基提到的，我们的股东回报框架的第一阶段包括债务减少、每股普通股股息增加 0.13 美元以及重新激活我们的股票回购计划。预计到第一季度末，净债务将低于 250 亿美元，我们准备开始向股东返还更多资本，但我们将继续优先考虑债务减少，以专注于我们中期目标，即恢复我们的投资级信用评级。
We place high importance on debt reduction for the reasons I highlighted last quarter, mainly that as debt is reduced, our company's enterprise value rebalance to the benefit of our shareholders. We recognize that oil prices are uncertain and may remain volatile, particularly in the current environment. We then prioritize our time of initial $5 billion of debt to drive our net debt towards our next milestone of $20 billion. When this milestone is achieved, our balance sheet will improve significantly even from where we are today.
我们非常重视债务减少，原因如我上个季度所强调的，主要是随着债务的减少，我们公司的企业价值将重新平衡，从而惠及我们的股东。我们认识到油价不确定，可能会保持波动，特别是在当前环境下。因此，我们优先考虑最初的 50 亿美元债务，以推动我们的净债务朝着下一个 200 亿美元的里程碑迈进。当这一里程碑实现时，我们的资产负债表将显著改善，即使与我们今天的状况相比。
We intend to provide our shareholders with a competitive common dividend while maintaining a long cycle cash flow breakeven at $40 WTI or less. The long-term sustainability of dividend will be enhanced by continued deleveraging and share repurchases as well as our best-in-class capital efficiency and a deep low-cost portfolio of assets. As debt retired our cash interest payments will decrease, free and enough cash, it can be used to support future common dividend growth.
我们打算为股东提供具有竞争力的普通股息，同时保持在 40 美元 WTI 或更低的长期现金流平衡。通过持续的去杠杆和股票回购，以及我们一流的资本效率和深厚的低成本资产组合，股息的长期可持续性将得到增强。随着债务的偿还，我们的现金利息支付将减少，充足的自由现金可以用于支持未来普通股息的增长。
In addition to the increase in the common dividend $0.13 per share, we intend to purchase approximately $3 billion of outstanding shares of common stock. Maintaining an active share repurchase program with the benefit of a healthy balance sheet will potentially enable us to grow the dividend on a per share basis at a faster rate. As evidenced by our progress reducing debt last year, debt retirement remains a higher cash flow priority than share repurchase program.
除了每股普通股股息增加 0.13 美元外，我们还计划回购大约 30 亿美元的流通普通股。保持活跃的股票回购计划，并利用健康的资产负债表，可能使我们能够以更快的速度每股增长股息。正如我们去年减少债务的进展所证明的，偿还债务仍然是比股票回购计划更高的现金流优先事项。
We intend to make substantial progress towards retiring an additional $5 billion of debt before initiating share repurchases. It is our goal to reward shareholders with a triple benefit of a sustainable common benefit, an active share repurchase program and a continuously strengthening financial position. We believe the shareholder return framework we have detailed this afternoon delivers these benefits and remaining as transparent for shareholders.
我们打算在启动股票回购之前，实质性地减少额外 50 亿美元的债务。我们的目标是通过可持续的共同利益、积极的股票回购计划和不断增强的财务状况，来回报股东三重利益。我们相信，今天下午我们详细阐述的股东回报框架能够实现这些利益，并保持对股东的透明度。
I'll now turn to our fourth quarter results. In the fourth quarter, we announced an adjusted profit of $1.48 and a reported profit of $1.37 per diluted share. Our adjusted income improved significantly through 2021, with the fourth quarter being the strongest quarter of the year. The increase in earnings was primarily driven by higher commodity prices and volumes as well as OxyChem's excellent financial performance.
我现在将转向我们的第四季度业绩。在第四季度，我们宣布调整后的利润为每稀释股 1.48 美元，报告利润为每稀释股 1.37 美元。我们的调整后收入在 2021 年显著改善，第四季度是全年最强劲的季度。盈利的增长主要是由于商品价格和销量的提高，以及 OxyChem 出色的财务表现。
Our domestic oil and gas expenses experienced a sizable reduction on a BOE basis from the previous quarter and reflect a more normalized environment, absent any significant weather disruptions. The strong performance of our businesses, combined with the benefit of a healthy commodity prices, enabled us to deliver another consecutive quarter of record free cash flow.
我们国内的石油和天然气支出在每桶油当量（BOE）基础上相比上个季度大幅减少，反映出在没有重大天气干扰的情况下，环境更加正常。我们业务的强劲表现，加上健康的商品价格带来的好处，使我们能够实现连续另一个季度的创纪录自由现金流。
On our third quarter call, we announced the completion of our large-scale divestiture program, but reiterated our intention to continue seeing opportunities to optimize our portfolio to create shareholder value. In November, we completed a bolt-on acquisition to increase our working interest in EOR assets that we'd operate. And in January 2022, we divested a small package of Permian acreage that have yet no immediate plan to develop. The purchase and sales prices of these transactions largely offset each other, while the EOR acquisition added approximately 5,000 BOE per day of low decline production as well as increasing our inventory of potential CCUS opportunity.
在我们第三季度的电话会议上，我们宣布完成了大规模的资产剥离计划，但重申了继续寻找机会优化我们的投资组合以创造股东价值的意图。2021年11月，我们完成了一次附加收购，增加了我们在我们将运营的EOR（增强型油气采收）资产中的工作权益。而在2022年1月，我们剥离了一小部分在Permian盆地的地块，这些地块目前还没有立即开发的计划。这些交易的买卖价格大致相互抵消，而EOR收购则增加了约5,000桶油当量/天的低衰减产量，并增加了我们潜在CCUS（碳捕获、利用与封存）机会的库存。
看着是利用自己的技术优势，通过交易资产的方式提升竞争力。
We exited the fourth quarter approximately $2.8 billion of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet after repaying approximately $2.2 billion of debt in the quarter. In total, last year, we paid approximately $6.7 billion of debt and retired $750 million of notional interest rate swaps. Our debt reduction continues to drive a pronounced improvement in our credit profile. Since our last call, both Fitch and S&P upgraded our credit ratings to BB+, 1 notch flow investment grade, and Moody's assigned us a positive outlook on our debt.
我们在第四季度末拥有大约28亿美元的未受限制现金，同时在本季度偿还了大约22亿美元的债务。去年全年，我们总共偿还了约67亿美元的债务，并注销了7.5亿美元的名义利率互换。我们的债务削减持续显著改善了我们的信用状况。自上次电话会议以来，Fitch和标准普尔都将我们的信用评级上调至BB+，距离投资级别仅差一级，穆迪则给予我们的债务一个正面的展望。
Reducing the amount of cash is committed to interest payments today place us in a stronger position for a sustainable return of capital in the future. We estimate that the balance sheet improvements executed in 2021 will reduce interest and financing costs by almost $250 million per year going forward, which will fund approximately half of the increase in our common dividend.
减少现金的数量用于今天的利息支付，使我们在未来实现可持续资本回报的过程中处于更强的位置。我们估计，2021 年实施的资产负债表改善将使未来的利息和融资成本减少近 2.5 亿美元，这将为我们普通股股息的增加提供大约一半的资金。
Our business incurred a negative working capital change in the fourth quarter. It was primarily driven by higher accounts receivable balance due to higher commodity prices and, to a lesser extent, an increase in inventories, including a higher number of barrels on the water at year-end.
我们的业务在第四季度出现了负的营运资本变动。这主要是由于应收账款余额增加，原因是商品价格上涨；其次是库存增加，包括年末在水上的桶数增加。
The oil and gas hedges we had in place rolled off at the end of the fourth quarter, and we are now positioned to take full advantage of the current commodity price environment. We recognize the possibility of a swoop change in commodity prices always exist. The debt maturity profile we have today is far more mantle than it was two years ago, and our liquidity profile remains robust.
我们之前的石油和天然气对冲在第四季度末到期，现在我们已做好充分准备，充分利用当前的商品价格环境。我们认识到商品价格可能会发生剧烈变化的可能性始终存在。我们今天的债务到期结构比两年前更加稳健，我们的流动性状况依然强劲。
In addition to cash on hand, we have $4.4 billion of committed unutilized bank facility. We continue to believe that reducing debt and maintaining maximum flexibility in our capital plans is the most effective long-term solution to managing risk while providing shareholders the benefits of commodity price gain.
除了手头现金，我们还有 44 亿美元的承诺未使用银行信贷额度。我们仍然相信，减少债务并在资本计划中保持最大灵活性是管理风险的最有效长期解决方案，同时为股东提供商品价格上涨的收益。
We expect our full year production to average 1.155 million BOE per day in 2022. Production in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be lower than the fourth quarter of 2021 due to the timing impact of wells that are brought online in 2021, severe winter weather in the Permian earlier this month and the impact of significant planned international turnaround activities this quarter.
我们预计2022年全年的平均产量将达到每天115.5万桶油当量。由于2021年投产的油井的时间影响、今年早些时候在Permian盆地的严寒冬季天气以及本季度国际上重大计划性检修活动的影响，2022年第一季度的产量预计将低于2021年第四季度。
Algeria, Al Hosn and Dolphin are all undergoing scheduled maintenance in the first quarter, which is reflected in international production guidance. downtime associated with Al Hosn is notably larger than typical years as the plant is undergoing the first full shutdown since its inception to substantially complete the tie-ins associated with the expansion projects and to enhance plant's sustainability and reliability.
阿尔及利亚、Al Hosn 和 Dolphin 都在第一季度进行计划中的维护，这已反映在国际产量指导中。Al Hosn 相关的停机时间比往年显著增加，因为该工厂自建成以来首次全面停产，以完成与扩建项目相关的主要接入工作，并提升工厂的可持续性和可靠性。
Additionally, a portion of our international production is subject to production sharing contracts, where we typically receive fewer barrels in a higher price environment, the impact of which is captured in our full year and first quarter guidance. The Permian activity we added late in the fourth quarter is expected to replace the production benefit received in 2021 and completed our DJ rate -- our inventory of DJ Basin of drilled uncompleted wells in the early part of last year. Our 2022 permitting capital allocation is expected to provide benefits that will last into 2023.
此外，我们的一部分国际产量受生产分成合同的影响，在价格较高的环境下，我们通常会收到较少的桶数，这一影响已反映在我们全年和第一季度的指导中。我们在第四季度末增加的Permian盆地活动预计将替代2021年获得的产量收益，并在去年年初完成了我们DJ盆地已钻未完井井的库存。我们2022年的许可资本分配预计将带来持续到2023年的收益。
We anticipate that our activity this year will provide us the flexibility to either hold Permian inflection flat at our 2022 exit rate for similar capital next year or spend less capital in 2023, the whole production relatively flat to our 2022 average. We also expect that our production in 2022 will increase throughout the year to achieve our full year guidance as our international operations will resume the normal production levels or activity in the Permian brings new production online.
我们预计，今年的活动将为我们提供灵活性，使我们在明年可以选择以类似的资本支出维持Permian盆地的产量在2022年的退出水平，或者在2023年减少资本支出，同时使产量相对维持在2022年的平均水平。我们还预计，2022年的产量将在全年逐步增加，以实现我们的全年指导目标，因为我们的国际业务将恢复到正常的生产水平，或者Permian盆地的新生产活动将上线。
Additionally, the trajectory of operating production is anticipated to offset lower production in Rockies this year as our activity in the DJ Basin is tapered, reflected development planning timing to ensure efficient operations as new products are obtained, partially offsetting lower Rockies production with higher Permian production, combined with the increase in EOR activity will result in a slightly higher domestic operating expense as the DJ Basin has one of the lowest operating costs on a BOE basis in our portfolio. The increase in Permian production is expected to result in domestic cash margins improving by -- in 2022 as the Company-wide oil cut increases approximately 54.5%.
此外，预计运营生产的增长轨迹将抵消今年落基山脉地区的较低产量，因为我们在DJ盆地的活动有所减少，反映了开发规划的时间安排，以确保在获得新产品时高效运营，部分通过增加Permian盆地的产量来抵消落基山脉产量的下降，加上EOR活动的增加，将导致国内运营费用略有上升，因为DJ盆地是我们投资组合中BOE（每桶油当量）运营成本最低的地区之一。预计Permian盆地的产量增加将导致2022年国内现金利润率提高，因为公司整体石油产量将增加约54.5%。
The mid-cycle level of capital we intend to spin this year provides flexibility to sustain production in 2023 and beyond at our multiyear sustaining capital level of $3.2 billion in a $40 price environment. We expect that OxyChem's 2022 earnings will exceed even 2021. OxyChem continues to benefit from continued demand improvement at caustic soda, while PVC pricing remains strong. Additionally, as I mentioned on our last call, we expect corn markets to remain tight as chlor-alkali producers seek the highest value for their products. OxyChem's integration to cost multiple corn derivatives enables us to optimize our production mix to supply the products the market requires, whether this is for corn-to-water treatment, vinyls or PVC, for example.
我们今年计划投入的中周期资本水平提供了灵活性，使我们能够在2023年及以后在40美元价格环境下维持32亿美元的多年度维持资本水平。我们预计OxyChem的2022年收益将超过2021年。OxyChem继续受益于烧碱需求的持续改善，同时PVC的价格保持强劲。此外，正如我在上次电话会议中提到的，我们预计玉米市场将保持紧张，因为氯碱生产商寻求为其产品获得最高价值。OxyChem的综合成本包括多种玉米衍生物，这使我们能够优化生产组合，以供应市场所需的产品，例如用于水处理的玉米到乙烯基或PVC产品。
This year, we will make an incremental capital investment as it could be the feed study for the modernization of certain Gulf Coast clor-alkali assets from diaphram to membrane technology. Modernizing these assets would result in material energy efficiency improvements, which will also lower the carbon intensity per ton of the product produced and delivered. The project would also provide the opportunity for a significant expansion of our existing capacity to meet growing demand for our key products. We expect to reach final investment decision later this year, at which time, we will be prepared to share additional details.
今年，我们将进行增量资本投资，因为这可能是对某些墨西哥湾沿岸氯碱资产从隔膜技术到膜技术现代化的前期研究。现代化这些资产将带来显著的能源效率提升，同时也会降低每吨产品生产和交付的碳强度。该项目还将为我们现有产能的显著扩张提供机会，以满足对我们关键产品日益增长的需求。我们预计将在今年晚些时候做出最终投资决定，届时我们将准备分享更多细节。
To assist investors to reconcile our guidance with our segment earnings, we have made a change in how we guide midstream going forward. Our midstream guidance now includes income from West, which is a change to how we've guided midstream previously. Quarterly guidance now includes Oxy's portion of WES income using the average of the previous four publicly available quarters. Our annual guidance now includes Oxy's portion of WES income using the sum of the previous four publicly available quarters.
为了帮助投资者将我们的指引与我们的细分收益进行对比，我们对未来的中游指引进行了调整。我们的中游指引现在包括来自西部的收入，这与我们之前的中游指引有所不同。季度指引现在包括 Oxy 在 WES 收入中的份额，使用之前四个公开可用季度的平均值。我们的年度指引现在包括 Oxy 在 WES 收入中的份额，使用之前四个公开可用季度的总和。
As you look to the year ahead, we will work to continue to improve on the numerous operational and financial success of 2021, including making additional inroads on reducing debt, implementing our shareholder return framework and advancing our low-carbon aspirations.
展望未来的一年，我们将继续努力改善 2021 年的众多运营和财务成功，包括进一步减少债务、实施我们的股东回报框架以及推进我们的低碳愿景。
I'll now turn the call back over to Vicki.
我现在将电话交还给维基。
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
Thank you, Rob. When we established Low Carbon Ventures in 2018, we knew we were ahead of the curve in recognizing the opportunity and necessity of building a carbon management business, both to help reduce global emissions and to enhance our business. At that time, we were focused on key technologies and projects that would reduce Oxy's emissions and provide a more sustainable future business.
谢谢你，罗布。当我们在 2018 年成立低碳风险投资时，我们知道我们在认识到建立碳管理业务的机会和必要性方面走在了前面，这不仅有助于减少全球排放，也有助于提升我们的业务。那时，我们专注于关键技术和项目，以减少 Oxy 的排放并提供一个更可持续的未来业务。
Today, we have advanced that vision and fully appreciate the vast scope of the carbon management opportunity as well as the cross-industry support and partnership in front of us. On past earnings calls, we had discussed several of the initiatives Low Carbon Ventures is developing and Oxy's ambition to achieve net zero before 2050. We've been working on key technology developments and important commercial needs to advance projects that are now in a position to move more fully -- and more fully detail our low carbon business and how it positions us to realize our net-zero ambition and improve our long-term business.
今天，我们已经推进了这一愿景，并充分认识到碳管理机会的广泛范围，以及我们面前的跨行业支持和合作。在过去的财报电话会议上，我们讨论了低碳风险投资正在开发的几个项目，以及 Oxy 在 2050 年前实现净零排放的雄心。我们一直在致力于关键技术的发展和重要商业需求，以推进现在能够更全面推进的项目——并更详细地阐述我们的低碳业务，以及它如何使我们实现净零排放的雄心并改善我们的长期业务。
On March 23, we will host a Low Carbon Ventures investor update, where we will provide a detailed update on our low-carbon strategy with a focus on the technology and commercial development of carbon-capture projects, specifically direct air capture. The event, which we expect may last up to 2.5 hours, will be accessible through our website. As I've said before, we are excited about our unique position and capabilities as a company. We value our broader low-carbon and business partnerships that are growing, and our workforce is energized to advance this immense opportunity before us.
在 3 月 23 日，我们将举办一次低碳投资者更新会，届时我们将详细介绍我们的低碳战略，重点关注碳捕集项目的技术和商业发展，特别是直接空气捕集。我们预计此次活动可能持续长达 2.5 小时，届时可通过我们的网站访问。正如我之前所说，我们对公司独特的定位和能力感到兴奋。我们重视不断增长的广泛低碳和商业合作伙伴关系，我们的员工也充满活力，致力于推动我们面前的巨大机遇。
We'll now open the call for your questions.
我们现在开始接受您的提问。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Today's first question comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays. Please go ahead.
谢谢。我们现在将开始问答环节。[操作员指示] 今天的第一个问题来自巴克莱的 Jeanine Wai。请继续。
Jeanine Wai 珍妮娜·韦
My first question is on the gross debt reduction or assuming that the $5 billion that you're planning on getting through, that can be executed through tenders. And so just any idea on what the timing of that could look like for you to complete that given what you've seen in the market? And do you need to get through the full $5 billion of tenders before you begin the buybacks that we were looking back at your prior tender? And you almost got the whole thing done, but that was only about $1.5 billion.
我的第一个问题是关于总债务的减少，假设你们计划通过要约收购来完成50亿美元的债务削减。你们对完成这一计划的时间安排有何看法，鉴于你们在市场中所看到的情况？在你们开始进行回购之前，是否需要完成全部50亿美元的要约收购？回顾你们之前的要约收购，你们几乎完成了全部，但当时只有大约15亿美元。
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Yes. Good question, Jeanine. And so I guess, first, let me comment on the tender that we did at the end in December. We were pretty aggressive on the premiums we've put in that tender because we knew we had an additional $700 million of callable debt available to us at the time. And so we were pretty happy with the ultimate outcome that came out of that. As we move forward since then, we have a lot of opportunities to reduce the debt.
是的。好问题，珍妮。首先，我想评论一下我们在 12 月底进行的招标。我们在招标中对溢价的设定相当激进，因为我们知道当时有额外的 7 亿美元可赎回债务可用。因此，我们对最终的结果感到非常满意。自那时以来，我们有很多机会来减少债务。
Last year, we were able to reduce, of the $6.7 billion of debt we did last year, we only paid a 1.5% premium for that. And within that, $4.7 million of that was actually concentrated on maturities that were 2024 or newer. And so, when I look at the opportunities to retire debt this year, as we indicated, we already retired the remaining January -- last of our 2022 maturities for $101 million already this month or this quarter.
去年，我们能够减少67亿美元的债务，而为此我们只支付了1.5%的溢价。其中，47亿美元的债务实际上集中在2024年或更新的到期债务。因此，当我考虑今年的债务偿还机会时，正如我们所提到的，我们已经在本月或本季度偿还了剩余的2022年到期债务，总额为1.01亿美元。
So we do have tenders, make-whole provisions. We have the ability to build cash on a net debt basis as maturities come forward. We do have the option to settle the February 23 notes, which is the bulk of our 2023 maturities become callable in November. But overall, when I look at the -- our debt, it is actually even cheaper than it was at the end of the year, largely because as interest rates have risen in the perspective of interest rates rising again.
因此，我们确实有要约收购和偿还条款的安排。随着债务到期，我们有能力在净债务基础上积累现金。我们确实有选择在今年11月赎回2023年2月到期的票据，这些票据构成了我们2023年到期债务的主要部分。但总体来看，当我审视我们的债务时，实际上比年末还要便宜，这主要是因为随着利率上升，市场预期利率将再次上升。
And so certainly, the next dollar we put forward will be towards debt reduction. And with the cash we ended the year at and the cash we're adding during the quarter, it's pretty safe to say that's probably not too far in the future that we initiate that process again. We don't need to have all of that completed before we return to buying share when we initiated a share purchase program, but we needed to be substantially completed or have line of sight on it being completed before we begin purchasing shares.
因此，毫无疑问，我们下一个投入的美元将用于减少债务。考虑到我们年末的现金和在本季度增加的现金，可以相当安全地说，我们再次启动这一过程的时间可能不会太远。在我们启动股票回购计划时，并不需要在回购股票之前完成所有这些，但我们需要在大部分完成或能够看到完成的情况下，才能开始购买股票。
Jeanine Wai 珍妮娜·韦
Okay. Great. That's really helpful information. Thank you. Maybe just going forward a little bit beyond that on your future cash flow priorities. Oxy has got a real high-class problem. Assuming oil prices stay anywhere close to where they are today, you'll be building a significant amount of cash on the balance sheet over the next few years even after you do the $5 billion of debt reduction and the $3 billion of buybacks. So I guess, have you started to assess the next debt and capital allocation after hitting your debt goals and the buyback? And I guess specifically, do you have any thoughts on potentially trying to tackle the preferreds early and doing that versus either other debt reduction or production growth and just how you're thinking about preferreds? Thank you.
好的。太好了。这真是有用的信息。谢谢你。也许在此基础上，谈谈你未来的现金流优先事项。Oxy 面临着一个真正的高端问题。假设油价保持在今天的水平附近，未来几年即使在减少 50 亿美元债务和回购 30 亿美元股票之后，你的资产负债表上仍会积累大量现金。那么，我想问一下，在实现债务目标和回购之后，你是否开始评估下一步的债务和资本配置？我想具体问一下，你是否考虑过提前处理优先股，并将其与其他债务减少或生产增长进行比较，以及你对优先股的看法是什么？谢谢。
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
We've discussed previously provisions with regards to the Berkshire agreement related to shareholder return, enabling us to begin redemption of the Berkshire to $4 per share common dividend to our shareholders. Assuming we repurchased $3 billion of shares in a 12-month period and then you combine that with $0.52 of dividend payments over four consecutive quarters, we still want to distribute it enough to reach a $4 per share distribution trigger. It would be about $3.72 at that point.
我们之前讨论过与伯克希尔协议有关的条款，涉及股东回报，使我们能够开始以每股 4 美元的普通股息赎回伯克希尔的股份。假设我们在 12 个月内回购了 30 亿美元的股份，然后将其与四个连续季度的每股 0.52 美元的股息支付相结合，我们仍然希望分配足够的资金，以达到每股 4 美元的分配触发点。那时大约是 3.72 美元。
But I want you to know, the Berkshire on provision isn't a limit on our ability to return value to shareholders. It simply means that circumstance arrives and the macro puts us in a place where we have exceeded $4 per share. On a trailing 12-month basis, we would just be in a position where we have to redeem an equal portion of Berkshire at a 10% premium as we return to shareholders above and beyond that.
但我想让你知道，伯克希尔协议中的条款并不是限制我们向股东返还价值的能力。这仅仅意味着，如果我们超过了每股4美元的分配，在一个12个月的周期内，我们将处于一个必须以10%的溢价赎回与超出部分相等的伯克希尔股份的境地。也就是说，当我们向股东返还超过这一金额时，需要同时进行相应的伯克希尔股份赎回。
And so, as we sit here today in February, agreeing that there's a lot of potential for elevated oil prices over an extended period of time to create a constructive macro for going beyond our debt focus, but it's a little too early, I think, to speculate on what we would do at that point in time.
因此，当我们今天在二月份坐在这里时，我们一致认为，长期内油价上涨的潜力很大，这为超越我们的债务关注创造了一个积极的宏观环境，但我认为现在还为时已早，无法推测到那时我们会做什么。
Operator 操作员
Our next question today comes from Phil Gresh at JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
我们今天的下一个问题来自摩根大通的菲尔·格雷什。请继续。
Phil Gresh 菲尔·格雷什
Yes, I guess just a follow up on that question around the net debt, the $20 billion next step, so to speak. What is the ultimate goal with the balance sheet? Is it $10 billion to $15 billion? I mean how do you think about that today?
是的，我想就关于净债务的问题做一个跟进，所谓的 200 亿美元的下一步。资产负债表的最终目标是什么？是 100 亿到 150 亿美元吗？我想知道你今天是如何看待这个问题的？
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Yes. So I think we've already seen in notes published from the various rating agencies that their expectations would be investment grade is somewhere in the mid- to high-teens. And so I think getting to that point -- getting to a level at some point that is in that $15 billion or less net debt is an ultimate goal for the Company. That would put us in a place -- there -- it also depends sort of on their long-term price horizon. If you take their $60, hitting down to a net of 20 puts us close to a two multiple at that point, depending on EBITDA going on a year-on-year out basis. So, we know we've got to do a little further than that in order to get consideration for investment grade.
是的。我认为我们已经从各评级机构发布的报告中看到，他们的预期是投资级别的净债务水平大约在150亿至170亿美元之间。因此，我认为将净债务降至150亿美元或更少是公司的最终目标。这将使我们处于一个更有利的位置——当然，这也取决于他们的长期价格预期。如果你采用60美元的价格假设，将净债务降至200亿会使我们的杠杆比率接近两倍，这取决于年复一年的EBITDA。因此，我们知道我们需要再进一步，以便获得投资级别的考虑。
Phil Gresh 菲尔·格雷什
Okay. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks. And then, Rob, you made a comment just about the Permian exit rate in '22 and into 2023. And I was just wondering where do you stand in terms of the CapEx carry with the Ecopetrol JV? Is there any spending in 2022 that kind of moves into the full 50-50 split? Or is that a 2023 event? I'm just curious, based on your comments you're making, how you incorporated how that could flip to the 50-50 and when?
好的，这很有道理，谢谢。然后，Rob，你刚刚提到2022年和2023年Permian盆地的退出率。我想问一下你们与Ecopetrol合资企业的资本支出分担情况是怎样的？2022年是否有任何支出会转入完全的50-50分成？还是说这要到2023年才会发生？我只是好奇，基于你刚才的评论，你是如何考虑这一转变以及何时会转变为50-50分成的？
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Based on the activity level we have planned for this year, we would probably consume the balance of the carry this year, but we don't anticipate really flipping in 2022.
根据我们为今年计划的活动水平，我们可能会在今年消耗掉剩余的库存，但我们不预计在 2022 年会真正转变。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
谢谢。我们今天的下一个问题来自美国银行的道格·莱格特。请继续。
Doug Leggate 道格·莱格特
Rob or Vicki, I wonder if I could follow up first on the buyback. Just so I understand it correctly. So $3 billion, is that an annual number that, depending on when you start the buyback, would you still expect to execute the full $3 billion in 2022, irrespective of when you hit, you get that line of sight, which I'm guessing is for months or months. And I guess related, you're kind of front-running yourself a little bit. And one could argue, taking the stock is heavily discounted because your capital structure, why not consider something like an ESR?
Rob 或 Vicki，我想先跟进一下股票回购的事宜。为了正确理解这一点，30亿美元是一个年度数字吗？无论何时开始回购，您是否仍然预计在2022年执行全部30亿美元的回购？我猜测这可能会在几个月内完成。与此相关的是，您似乎在提前行动，有人可能会说，由于您的资本结构，股票目前被严重低估，为什么不考虑类似ESR（股权回购）的方案呢？
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
So Doug, I think the first way I'd answer part of your question is the -- once we begin to initiate the share repurchases, it will be done both in an open-market repurchase basis when the market is open, and when it's closed through a 10b5 type programmatic program.
Doug，我想首先回答您问题的一部分是，一旦我们开始启动股票回购，将会以两种方式进行：在市场开放时通过公开市场回购，市场关闭时通过类似于10b5类型的程序性计划进行回购。
The stock, as you know, is extremely liquid. We can easily purchase $1 billion of shares in less than 14 trading days without, I mean, close to 15% of the average daily trading volume. So there's a pretty safe way that over a fairly short period of time if we wanted to, we could accomplish $3 billion goal.
这只股票，正如你所知，流动性极强。我们可以在不到 14 个交易日内轻松购买价值 10 亿美元的股票，而这接近于平均日交易量的 15%。所以，如果我们想的话，在相对较短的时间内实现 30 亿美元的目标是相当安全的。
But that goal certainly be dictated by our free cash flow generation. That's largely related to the commodity prices. And it's -- we're in an environment right now where we -- the hedges have rolled off. We're giving our shareholders full exposure to commodity prices, which we think over the cycle of the commodities, will deliver the most value of the Company, ultimately most value to shareholders.
但这个目标肯定是由我们的自由现金流生成决定的。这在很大程度上与商品价格有关。我们现在处于一个环境中，套期保值已经到期。我们让股东充分暴露于商品价格之下，我们认为在商品周期中，这将为公司带来最大的价值，最终为股东带来最大的价值。
But along with that, we realized that the macro can change for a lot of different risk factors that can cause prices to go unconstructed for us in a rapid fashion also. And so we can't find ourselves in a position where maybe we tackled the stock ahead of time and the price environment change for whatever reason, and we haven't the debt first.
但是与此同时，我们意识到宏观环境可能会因许多不同的风险因素而发生变化，这些因素可能会导致我们的价格迅速失去控制。因此，我们不能处于这样一种境地：也许我们提前处理了股票，但由于某种原因，价格环境发生了变化，而我们没有优先处理债务。
And that's part of the reason why we understand that over the long -- over the course of the year, we may end up paying more for the stock to retire it. But in aligning risks and opportunities for shareholders, we think that approach we are taking the most prudent way to do it.
这也是我们理解的原因之一，长期来看，随着时间的推移，我们可能会为回购股票支付更多费用。但在为股东对齐风险和机会方面，我们认为我们采取的这种方法是最谨慎的做法。
Doug Leggate 道格·莱格特
Okay. So just to be clear, so if you started the buy back in May, you'd still expect to get $3 billion done this year? That's just for clarity. That's not my follow-up.
好的。为了明确一下，如果你在五月开始回购，你仍然希望今年完成 30 亿美元的回购吗？这只是为了澄清。这不是我的后续问题。
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Well, the time line is going to be dependent upon the availability of cash, Doug. That's what's going to be the driver of it. But in terms of ability to execute with the liquidity of the stock, a time frame will be completed in the second half of the year, even if we didn't initiate until the second half of the year would not be a challenge.
好吧，时间表将取决于现金的可用性，道格。这将是推动因素。但就股票的流动性执行能力而言，即使我们直到下半年才开始，时间框架也将在下半年完成，这不会是一个挑战。
Doug Leggate 道格·莱格特
My follow-up is a resource question. Vicki, I'm guessing this was deliberate, but you've given -- you've kind of laid out the inventory debt for the onshore portfolio, looks at the current rate, something around 15 years, assuming not a lot of growth. What about the Gulf of Mexico and the rest of the portfolio? Can you give us kind of an update as to how you see the resource depth or sustainability that goes along with the sustaining capital number that you gave us?
关于资源的问题，Vicki，我猜这是经过深思熟虑的，你已经大致列出了陆上投资组合的库存深度，以目前的速率来看，大约可以维持15年，假设没有太多的增长。那么墨西哥湾和其他投资组合呢？你能否给我们一个更新，说明你对这些资源深度或可持续性的看法，以及这与您之前提到的维持资本数字的关系？
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
Yes. I'll let Ken answer that. He's got his team actually working on that in view of some of the challenges we've had with the recent lease sale. Actually, we have a great new story on that.
好的，我会让Ken来回答这个问题。他的团队实际上正在处理这个问题，特别是在我们最近的租赁销售面临一些挑战的情况下。实际上，我们在这方面有一个很好的新进展。
Ken Dillon 肯·迪伦
Doug, in terms of Gulf of Mexico, we recently completed our field architecture studies. As you know, we have a 179 blocks, wherein 90 of those are tagged as exploration. When we look at the risk portfolio and the opportunities we have, we have substantial work, hundreds of millions of risk barrels, opportunities going forward. We have a solid assembly line of projects. We get three projects in flight at moment, Caesar Tonga expansion or our mountain expansion, A2 subsea pumping. And the recent -- as Vicki alluded to our recent lease round attempt. Our goal there was to find, obtain acreage close by our existing infrastructure to accelerate simple tiebacks. That doesn't inhibit us. We have a large portfolio, and we feel comfortable going forward within the plans that have been presented in the slide.
Doug，关于墨西哥湾的情况，我们最近完成了我们的油田架构研究。正如你所知，我们拥有179个区块，其中90个被标记为勘探区块。当我们审视风险投资组合和我们拥有的机会时，我们发现有大量的工作要做，未来有数亿桶风险储量的机会。我们有一个稳定的项目流水线，目前有三个项目正在进行中：Caesar Tonga扩展项目、Our Mountain扩展项目和A2海底泵送项目。正如Vicki提到的，我们最近在租赁轮次中尝试的目标是找到并获取靠近我们现有基础设施的地块，以加速简单的回接操作。这并不限制我们，因为我们有一个庞大的投资组合，并且对未来的计划感到满意，这些计划已经在幻灯片中展示出来。
Operator 操作员
Our next question today comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
我们今天的下一个问题来自高盛的尼尔·梅塔。请继续。
Neil Mehta 尼尔·梅塔
So the first question is on the production profile. Vicki, you had made the comment, as you think about the long term, you want to see growth somewhere between 0% and 5%. Is that sort of -- why is -- how do you think about the long-term profile? And based on the way you've you view normal, that's a big range. Where do you see yourselves planning in the context of that range?
所以第一个问题是关于生产概况的。维基，你曾提到，当你考虑长期时，你希望看到增长在 0%到 5%之间。这种想法是基于什么？你如何看待长期的概况？根据你对正常情况的看法，这个范围很大。你们在这个范围内的规划是什么？
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
Well, it really depends on the projects. And what we always do is we try to design our capital programs to deliver the best returns. And so, it's always -- as we develop our areas, it's always with that in mind and to build the facilities that require a pace of development that delivers the maximum return. So, we could have lumpy -- a little bit lumpy growth going out.
这确实取决于具体的项目。我们始终致力于设计我们的资本计划，以实现最佳回报。因此，在开发各个区域时，我们始终考虑到这一点，并建设能够以最佳开发节奏实现最大回报的设施。因此，未来的增长可能会有些不均衡。
The Gulf of Mexico is a little bit lumpy. In the shale play, depending on whether you're starting a new area or not, it would be a little bit lumpy. But certainly, our capital intensity, we believe, is going to continue overtime to be the best in the industry. And the development that we'll have and whether or not we're net zero or 5% will depend on how the program lays out to maximize returns.
墨西哥湾有些不平坦。在页岩气开发中，取决于你是否在开辟新区域，情况也会有些不平坦。但我们相信，我们的资本强度在行业中将继续保持最佳水平。我们的开发情况，以及我们是否实现净零排放或 5%，将取决于如何规划项目以最大化回报。
So, we have, as you see, inventory onshore, inventory in the Gulf of Mexico. We have the -- as well some international projects that could add value. And as I mentioned in my script, we do have in our chemicals business opportunities to grow there. And so, the efficiencies and opportunities that we see really will depend on how we can piece it together to deliver the best possible return.
所以，正如您所看到的，我们在岸上有库存，在墨西哥湾也有库存。我们还有一些国际项目可以增加价值。正如我在我的发言稿中提到的，我们的化学业务确实有增长的机会。因此，我们所看到的效率和机会实际上将取决于我们如何将这些因素结合起来，以提供最佳的回报。
Neil Mehta 尼尔·梅塔
Certainly an evolving situation. Let me ask you about Chemicals, Vicki, because the '22 guide was stronger than what we anticipated. I think a lot of investors expected chemicals to be sequentially lower. Just talk about some of the moving pieces that allows for some profitability to improve year-over-year. And what are the biggest risks to actually achieve in the guidance?
当然这是一个不断变化的情况。让我问你关于化学品的事，维基，因为 2022 年的指引比我们预期的要强。我认为很多投资者预计化学品会逐季下降。谈谈一些推动因素，使得年复一年盈利有所改善。实现指引的最大风险是什么？
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Yes, Neil, I'll take the one on chemicals. And so what I'd point to, first, I know you understand the business well. As obviously, we -- if you look at Slide 39 in the deck, the two business -- profit drivers in the business are the PVC business or the Vinyls business and the caustic soda business. And both of those did materially improve throughout 2021.
是的，尼尔，我会选择化学品那一部分。首先，我想指出的是，我知道你对这个行业非常了解。显然，如果你查看幻灯片 39，业务中的两个利润驱动因素是 PVC 业务或乙烯基业务和氢氧化钠业务。这两者在 2021 年都有显著改善。
And when we have favorable conditions in both, the impact to earnings is pretty significant. And so what you're seeing is, is for me to say where the market is at right now as the PVC business is still very tight supply/demand balance. We think operating rates for the industry were in 80%, 81% in January.
当我们在两者都有利条件时，对收益的影响是相当显著的。因此，我所看到的是，目前市场的情况是 PVC 业务的供需平衡仍然非常紧张。我们认为该行业的开工率在 1 月份为 80%到 81%。
Demand was slightly higher in January of '22 relative to January '21, less than 1%, but a little bit better. Producers are attempting to build inventory in PVC right now in advance of outages that are scheduled, but you've got a situation where they're already at low inventories and the pool from the construction sector remains strong. And so you've got temps to grow inventories while demand is still quite strong.
2022 年 1 月的需求相较于 2021 年 1 月略有上升，增幅不到 1%，但情况稍有好转。生产商目前正试图在计划停产之前增加 PVC 库存，但他们的库存已经很低，建筑行业的需求依然强劲。因此，在需求仍然相当强劲的情况下，他们有机会增加库存。
We expect demand to remain strong in the PVC business throughout 2022. There's a very favorable housing starts outlook. Mortgage rates obviously remain pretty low, and the remodeling sector also remains very attractive. And so you can look at the export side of the business.
我们预计 2022 年 PVC 业务的需求将保持强劲。住房开工前景非常乐观。抵押贷款利率显然仍然很低，翻新行业也依然非常有吸引力。因此，您可以关注业务的出口方面。
So in January, there's only about 250 million pounds of export, which is about 30% less than '21. That's reflective of the lack of product available right now. And so we certainly see -- you're not giving an opportunity for inventory to really replenish itself and exports to even return and to provide the latter part of the second quarter when resin supply might be normalized in the wake of outages assuming there's no unplanned outages for that period.
所以在一月份，出口量只有大约 2.5 亿磅，比 2021 年减少了约 30%。这反映了目前可用产品的短缺。因此，我们确实看到——你没有给库存真正补充的机会，出口也无法恢复，以便在树脂供应在停产后可能恢复正常的第二季度后期提供支持，前提是那段时间没有计划外的停产。
And then in case of the chlor-alkali side, we're seeing a very tight supply/demand market, largely because of production challenges. Operating rates, we think, in the industry are going to be somewhere in the low 80s for the first quarter. There's a lot plant outages scheduled now in May of '22, but there's been a significant number of unplanned outages still in the industry, impacting product availability.
在氯碱行业，我们看到供需市场非常紧张，主要是由于生产挑战。我们认为，行业的开工率在第一季度将处于低 80%左右。现在在 2022 年 5 月有很多计划停产，但行业内仍有大量非计划停产，影响了产品的可用性。
And on the coring side, we think we'll see growth at least 3% to 4% this year. Again, all the sector markets are strong with the similar markets to the PVC that draw on the crop side of the business. We think that will be also supplemented by there's improving travel and then business spending. Return to office will drive pen and paper usage for caustic soda, et cetera. So a lot of things that we think are going to be positive on that.
在核心业务方面，我们认为今年的增长至少会达到 3%到 4%。再次强调，所有行业市场都很强劲，与 PVC 类似的市场也在推动农业业务。我们认为，这将受到旅行改善和商业支出的补充。返岗工作将推动氢氧化钠等产品的笔和纸的使用。因此，我们认为有很多因素将对这一点产生积极影响。
And on the international side of the caustic business, certainly rising natural gas prices and availability in Europe and Asia will have already impacted operating rates vinyl producers overseas, which is driving up values to that. And so, the biggest change year-over-year as to why I think there's maybe a surprise because conditions were so remarkable in 2021. And why would we be guiding something higher than that is that if you go back and look at the beginning of the year, caustic soda at the beginning of 2021 was still coming out of the really low values at the post-COVID drop in 2021.
在烧碱业务的国际方面，欧洲和亚洲天然气价格的上涨及其供应状况肯定已经影响了海外乙烯基生产商的运营率，这推动了其价格上涨。至于为什么我认为与去年相比可能会有些意外，主要是因为2021年的市场条件非常特殊。而我们为什么会给出比那更高的指导意见，是因为如果你回顾2021年年初，烧碱在2021年初仍然处于COVID-19后低谷的恢复期。
PVC has recovered very quickly on the construction side, but caustic was dragging its way up a little by a little out of the lows experienced during 2020. And so caustic prices improved sequentially quarter after quarter throughout 2021, which is why you'll see the earnings for the segment in the fourth quarter was typically the first and fourth of the shoulder quarters and the strong ones are the midyear, Q2, Q3, but you had almost yet doubled the earnings in the Chemicals segment in the fourth quarter compared to the first quarter.
在建筑领域，PVC复苏得非常快，但烧碱则是从2020年经历的低谷中一点一点地缓慢恢复。因此，2021年烧碱价格在每个季度都逐步改善，这也是为什么你会看到该板块在第四季度的收益表现出色。通常来说，第一和第四季度是淡季，而中期的第二和第三季度表现较强，但你会发现，化工板块在第四季度的收益几乎是第一季度的两倍。
And so we're coming in with so much more momentum, which is why our guide for Q1 is so strong for the Chemical business. And so it's not that we're predicting those conditions persist all the way through the entire year. We're just going to start from a higher point. And how long that these conditions persist will impact what is that guidance that it could increase the balance of the year potentially, if it holds on longer than we're anticipating. We do anticipate that things, as I said, will start to normalize maybe the middle part of the year.
因此，我们的势头更加强劲，这就是为什么我们对化工业务的第一季度指导如此强劲。因此，我们并不是预测这些条件会持续整个年度。我们只是会从一个更高的起点开始。这些条件持续的时间将影响我们的指导，如果它们比我们预期的持续得更久，可能会增加下半年的预期。正如我所说，我们预计事情可能会在年中的时候开始正常化。
Operator 操作员
And our next question today comes from Matt Portillo with TPH. Please go ahead.
我们今天的下一个问题来自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo。请继续。
Matt Portillo 马特·波蒂略
Just the first question on the DJ Basin. You mentioned in the prepared remarks some timing around permits. Just curious if you could provide some context on the permitting process as it stands today. And is this a good level of development to think about for next year? Or should we expect a rebound in the DJ in 2023 as it relates to drilling?
关于 DJ 盆地的第一个问题。您在准备的发言中提到了一些关于许可证的时间安排。我很好奇您能否提供一些关于目前许可证申请流程的背景信息。现在的开发水平是否适合考虑明年的发展？还是我们应该期待 2023 年 DJ 盆地在钻探方面的反弹？
Richard Jackson 理查德·杰克逊
Hi, Matt, this is Richard. I'll take that one for. So, with respect to the permits in the DJ, really have had good progress over the last years, I would describe it. Just looking at some of the permits in hand, we've had about 46 wells permitted, which takes us through really past half of the year. And so what we've really put in place is optionality in our program. So you dig into sort of our onshore plan for this year, we have plans to pick up a second rig in the year. And really, that's based on confidence with where we're going with our permit.
嗨，马特，我是理查德。我会为此负责。关于 DJ 的许可证，过去几年我们确实取得了良好的进展。我会这样描述。看看我们手头的一些许可证，我们已经获得了大约 46 口井的许可，这使我们真正走过了上半年的时间。因此，我们实际上在我们的计划中建立了选择性。深入了解我们今年的陆上计划，我们计划在今年增加第二台钻机。这实际上是基于我们对许可证进展的信心。
So as you know, last year, some changes in terms of the process happened. And so we've been meaningfully engaged over the last year. Importantly, at the stakeholder level and communities and then now with the state, but we've seen in our own pads approved as well as other operators. And I think the feedback that we've received and we continue to work on together is continuing to improve technology and things that we know that can really place us in a good place for development. So I guess, in short, we're optimistic we've got a rig plan to come in, in the second half of the year, but have optionality within the program to be able to adjust as needed.
正如你所知，去年在流程方面发生了一些变化。因此，我们在过去一年中进行了有意义的参与。重要的是，在利益相关者层面和社区层面，现在与州政府的合作，但我们在自己批准的项目以及其他运营商中也看到了这一点。我认为我们收到的反馈，以及我们继续共同努力的方向，是不断改进技术和我们知道的可以真正使我们在发展中处于良好位置的事物。因此，我想简而言之，我们对下半年有钻机计划感到乐观，但在项目中有灵活性，可以根据需要进行调整。
Matt Portillo 马特·波蒂略
Perfect. And maybe a follow-up on the marketing side. I know as an organization, you guys have been very thoughtful about this process through the cycle. The basin, it looks like there's possibly some solutions on the horizon for incremental gas takeaway. And just curious how you all might be thinking about potentially adding to your takeaway portfolio from a gas marketing perspective?
完美。也许在市场营销方面可以跟进一下。我知道作为一个组织，你们在这个过程中一直很周到。盆地看起来可能有一些增量天然气运输的解决方案即将出现。我很好奇你们可能会如何考虑从天然气市场营销的角度增加你们的运输组合？
And then maybe dovetailing into that. On the crude oil side, could you just remind us when some of those contracts start to roll over? And if there's any tailwinds to the financials kind of moving forward over the next few years around crude oil marketing?
然后也许可以与此相结合。在原油方面，您能否提醒我们一些合同何时开始到期？在未来几年内，原油营销是否会对财务状况产生任何积极影响？
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
Yes. Matt, we really have enough gas capacity and as much as we feel like we need at this point and with respect to our growth profile. And for the oil side of it, the contracts start rolling off in 2025 for the oil and gas -- for the oil part of the contract. So we have plenty of capacity. At that time, I think it will take probably a couple of years to get us down to the point where all the contracts are lost.
是的。马特，我们确实有足够的气体容量，考虑到我们目前的需求和增长情况。至于石油方面，合同将在 2025 年开始到期，涉及石油和天然气的合同。因此，我们有足够的容量。到那时，我认为可能需要几年的时间才能使我们达到所有合同到期的状态。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Neal Dingmann at Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
谢谢。我们今天的下一个问题来自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。请继续。
Neal Dingmann 尼尔·丁曼
Vicki, my first question maybe for you. You mentioned just a couple of minutes ago here, you thought you maybe would ramp the chemicals. And obviously, as a finance guy that just continues to be. I know when I saw Rob in December, and it just continues to get better and better. I guess my question is as a financial guy, how much can you grow that? And would that grow in conjunction with your low carbon emission business? I know you talked about that in the past. I'm just wondering how much could you push that business given it just continues to hit it off the part on that one.
Vicki，我的第一个问题可能是给你的。你刚才提到，你可能会加大化工业务的力度。显然，作为一个财务人员，我对这方面的持续增长非常关注。我知道当我在12月见到Rob时，这一业务表现得越来越好。我的问题是，作为一个财务人员，你认为这个业务可以增长多少？这个增长是否会与低碳排放业务结合？我知道你过去曾谈到过这一点。我只是想知道，在这个业务表现出色的情况下，你能在多大程度上推动它的增长。
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
I think we'll talk about that a little bit more as we talk about the project and the capital that we're executing to convert our diaphragm to membranes, because that's going to improve some efficiency in the areas where we're doing that conversion. So, we'll actually increase -- be able to increase our capacity. And we'll outline that and detail that a little more in the next earnings call because right now, we're currently in the process of doing the FEED study on that.
我认为我们将在讨论项目和我们正在执行的将隔膜转为膜的资本支出时更详细地谈到这一点。因为这将提高我们在进行这类转换的地区的效率。因此，我们实际上将能够增加产能。在下一次收益电话会议中，我们会更详细地概述和说明这一点，因为我们目前正在进行前端工程设计（FEED）研究。
For today, with respect to other opportunities, we will continue to consider incoming calls about potential partnerships where it makes sense to do projects with either customers or more from the perspective of supporting Low Carbon Ventures. We try to be opportunistic in chemicals and not build without a -- certainly the demand for the product. And so on the Low Carbon Ventures side, where, as we go through this, finding opportunities where there are synergies and growing synergies between the Chemicals business and the low carbon business. So it will have some growth around that.
今天，关于其他机会，我们将继续考虑有关潜在合作伙伴关系的提议，尤其是在与客户合作或支持低碳项目方面。如果有合适的项目，我们会抓住机会，但我们在化工业务中力求机会主义，确保在确有产品需求的情况下才进行扩展。因此，在低碳项目方面，我们会寻找与化工业务之间的协同机会，并在协同效应不断增长的基础上推动业务发展。因此，化工业务将在这方面有一定的增长。
Neal Dingmann 尼尔·丁曼
No, that's great to hear. And then just a second. You talked to just a minute also about the DJ, and my thought is it sounds like some of the firm production is to replace DJ this year. Is that going to be the case going forward? And is that because you're talking about -- I know Richard talking about permitting all in shape. I'm just wondering what's sort of the reason or rationale for why not just grow both of these? I mean, I'm looking at that.
很高兴听到这些消息。接着第二个问题，你刚才也提到了DJ，我的理解是今年的一些固定产量是为了替代DJ的产量。未来也是这样吗？是不是因为你们提到的——我知道Richard谈到了许可证的准备情况。我只是想了解一下，为什么不同时增长这两个产量？我的意思是，我在考虑这个问题时，觉得不太明白其中的原因或逻辑。
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
Yes. It just -- it really just depends on the permitting process because we do have really good inventory in the DJ Basin as well. And as we go forward and we work out the process, if we get ahead on the permitting, we would consider adding a rig to the -- or a rig or two to the DJ as well.
是的。这真的完全取决于许可流程，因为我们在 DJ 盆地也有非常好的库存。随着我们向前推进并完善流程，如果我们在许可方面取得进展，我们会考虑在 DJ 盆地增加一台或两台钻机。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. Our next question today comes from David Deckelbaum at Cowen. Please go ahead.
谢谢。我们今天的下一个问题来自 Cowen 的 David Deckelbaum。请继续。
David Deckelbaum 大卫·德克尔鲍姆
Thanks for all the details today, Vicki and team, and congrats on the visibility of $20 billion of debt. I wanted to ask just on the sustaining capital. There were lots of in and out, particularly around the Gulf of Mexico and the EOR catch up, some normalization of Rockies DUCs. I guess, when we think about that delta between the 2-8 or 2-9 that you guys had talked about last year, kind of in the $400 million increment this year, how do we think about that sustaining capital level progressing into the out years now? Does it have some upwards pressure on it because of catch ups? Or should we look at this as a catch-up year, and that should moderate, potentially decline along with base declines moderating?
感谢今天提供的所有详细信息，Vicki 和团队，祝贺你们在降低债务方面取得的进展。我想问一下关于维持资本的问题。特别是在墨西哥湾和EOR（增强型油气采收）以及落基山脉已钻未完井（DUCs）的正常化方面，有很多进出因素。我想问的是，当我们考虑到去年你们提到的28亿或29亿美元的维持资本水平时，与今年的40亿美元增量相比，未来的维持资本水平如何发展？是否因为这些补偿性支出而面临上行压力？或者我们应该将今年视为一个补偿性支出年，而未来这些支出可能会随着基础衰减的减缓而逐渐平稳甚至下降？
Richard Jackson 理查德·杰克逊
Maybe we'll start with onshore and speak to that a little bit. I think you've got it right. I think if you look over the last couple of years and what's happened, certainly, 2020 had a significant reset for us in terms of activity levels. And so preserving cash investment at that point and really dropped activity levels almost completely.
也许我们可以先从陆上业务开始讨论一下。我认为你理解得很对。如果你回顾过去几年的情况，特别是2020年，对我们的活动水平来说是一个重大调整。当时，我们优先考虑保持现金投资，因此几乎完全减少了活动水平。
And so coming on the back half and into 2021, we had things like the DUCs in the DJ that allowed us that ability to add production and maximize cash flow for 2021 with a lot less capital investment. And so what happened last year was really, as we think about the transition, it went from transitioning from DUCs as we restored activity really to drilling and completion, which is a much more steady-state pipeline for our production delivery.
因此，进入 2021 年下半年，我们有像 DJ 盆地的未完工井（DUCs），这使我们能够增加产量并最大化 2021 年的现金流，同时减少资本投资。因此，去年发生的事情实际上是，当我们考虑过渡时，它是从未完工井的过渡，随着我们恢复活动，真正转向钻探和完井，这为我们的产量交付提供了一个更加稳定的管道。
And so the way that played out was really at the end of the fourth quarter, beginning of the first quarter, we were able to pick up our drilling in frac cores to sustain the production for this year, which did a couple of things. One, it was good because as we head into inflationary period, we were able to gain activity and create that stability within our capital program.
结果是在第四季度末和第一季度初，我们能够加快钻井和压裂活动，以维持今年的产量。这带来了几个好处。首先，在进入通胀时期时，我们能够增加活动量，并在我们的资本计划中创造稳定性。
But what it does is it did create a bit of a lump that we have most of our wells online really starting late in the first quarter, and then you hit more steady state in the second and third quarter. And so, as that projects into the end of the year and into 2023, you can tell from our first quarter guidance to total year that we do have an increase of production.
但它确实造成了一些波动，我们的大部分井在第一季度末才开始上线，然后在第二和第三季度进入更稳定的状态。因此，随着这一情况延续到年底和 2023 年，从我们第一季度的指导和全年预期中可以看出，我们的产量确实有所增加。
But those type events as well as restoring activity really from a cash investment perspective and EOR, adding low decline production barrels really gives us a much more sustainable production level across the cycle. And so I think we're restoring, as you said, a much more normal steady-state activity level and a much more robust or sustainable free cash flow capability.
这些类型的活动以及从现金投资的角度恢复活动，尤其是增强型油气采收（EOR），通过增加低衰减的产量桶，确实使我们在整个周期内保持了一个更加可持续的产量水平。因此，我认为我们正在恢复一个更为正常的、稳定的活动水平，并且拥有更强大和可持续的自由现金流能力。
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
Nothing, considering the rest of the portfolio, we don't see a lot of upward pressure for the 3.2 as a whole.
考虑到投资组合的其他部分，我们并没有看到整体上对 3.2 有很大的上行压力。
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
And David, just to add to your point, I mean on top of what Richard and Vicki just went through, I mean, from a decline standpoint, as you know, we improved the base decline from 25% two years ago to 22% last year, and it's the same this year. It's at 22% as well. But given the things Richard said, that gives potential to flatten that out of it in the future.
David，补充一下Richard和Vicki刚才提到的内容，从产量衰减的角度来看，正如你所知，我们已经将基础产量的衰减率从两年前的25%改善到了去年的22%，今年也是22%。但正如Richard所说的那些因素，这为未来进一步平稳衰减率提供了潜力。
David Deckelbaum 大卫·德克尔鲍姆
I appreciate all the color on that. And if I could just ask a quick follow-up. Just the -- so I'm understanding, there was $400 million, I think, that was attributed to the difference to the low end versus the high end of capital guide, which I think you talked about Low Carbon ventures spend, that would be potential in OBO. I guess for the Low Carbon Ventures spend, would that just be accelerating some projects? Or is it the contingency for things that you're considering doing but aren't sure if you want to pursue at this point? I guess how do we think about that sort of allowance that's built in to the difference in the low and the high end?
感谢你们的详细解释。如果可以的话，我想问一个快速的跟进问题。关于你提到的4亿美元资本支出差异，我理解的是，这是资本指导范围低端和高端之间的差异，涉及到低碳项目的支出，这部分资金可能会用于OBO。我想问一下，低碳项目的支出是否意味着加速一些项目的进展？还是说这是为一些你们正在考虑但尚未决定是否要推进的项目预留的应急资金？我想了解一下这个差异中的这部分预留资金是如何考虑的？
Richard Jackson 理查德·杰克逊
Yes. This is Richard again. I think you've got it right from the standpoint of really the LCV capital certainly focused meaningfully on our direct air capture plant 1. So there is a project time line associated with that, where engineering is going great. The commercial aspects of the project continue to be supportive. And so there's a little bit of uncertainty there, but that component, we'll have more visibility and be able to talk more about even with you next month.
是的，我是Richard。我认为你理解得很对，低碳项目（LCV）的资本确实主要集中在我们的直接空气捕捉（DAC）1号工厂上。这个项目有一个与之相关的时间线，目前工程进展顺利，项目的商业方面也在持续支持。因此，这方面存在一些不确定性，但我们将在下个月有更多的透明度，并能够与你更详细地讨论这一点。
In addition to that, what's happened is really beyond strong engineering progress, we continue to have good commercial support, whether that's global policy recognition for carbon capture or even direct air capture, in particular, or even with strategic net-zero businesses. And so these things support commerciality.
此外，发生的事情不仅仅是强大的工程进展，我们继续获得良好的商业支持，无论是全球政策对碳捕集的认可，还是直接空气捕集，尤其是，或者与战略净零企业的合作。因此，这些因素支持了商业化。
And so what's happened is we do see additional opportunities for direct air capture. For example, we had an opportunity in Canada to look at with a developer direct air capture with air to fuels. And so a bit of that money is as these projects become more opportunistic, we would allocate some feasibility capital to be able to look at these other type projects.
因此，我们确实看到了直接空气捕捉（DAC）的额外机会。例如，我们在加拿大有一个机会，与一家开发商合作研究将空气转化为燃料的直接空气捕捉项目。因此，随着这些项目变得更具机会性，我们会分配一些可行性资金来研究这些其他类型的项目。
The final piece is really our CCUS, and you've probably seen some pieces around projects that we're involved with. And so those continue moving beyond into commercial development. And so we have some capital associated to continue those. But that, again, be able to share more in March around that, but look forward to these projects advancing meaningfully this year.
最后一部分是我们的碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）项目，你可能已经看到了一些我们参与的项目。这些项目正在逐步推进，进入商业开发阶段。因此，我们分配了一些资金来继续推进这些项目。我们将在3月份分享更多相关信息，但期待这些项目在今年有实质性的进展。
Operator 操作员
And ladies and gentlemen, our final question today comes from Raphaël DuBois with Societe Generale. Please go ahead.
女士们，先生们，我们今天的最后一个问题来自法国外贸银行的 Raphaël DuBois。请继续。
Raphaël DuBois 拉斐尔·杜布瓦
The first one is related to your EOR business. Could you maybe tell us a bit more how production in this division has trended since you stopped reporting it as a single entity? And also, I was wondering if the extra CapEx you will throw at this business is solely to stop decline? Or whether you intend to restart growing this business as well?
第一个问题与您的 EOR 业务有关。您能否告诉我们自从您停止将其作为单一实体报告以来，该部门的生产趋势如何？另外，我想知道您将投入的额外资本支出是否仅仅是为了停止衰退？还是您打算重新启动该业务的增长？
Rob Peterson 罗伯·彼得森
Maybe I'll start with the EOR just a little bit. As we think about the last couple of years, I'd say the opportunity in front of us really to address any decline that we've seen is really -- and this comes to our OpEx, when we talk about that, that's really restoration of maintenance and specifically down hole maintenance. And so the ability to allocate some of that cash investment to restore down production is some of the best cash investment we have.
也许我可以先谈一下增强型油气采收（EOR）。回顾过去几年，我认为我们面临的机会主要是应对我们所看到的产量下降问题。具体来说，这与我们的运营成本（OpEx）有关，特别是在井下维护方面。因此，分配部分现金投资用于恢复停产井的生产是我们最有效的现金投资之一。
It's very high return even at mid-cycle prices. And so we expect to be able to -- and have added some well service rigs to add up to 6,000 barrels a day by year-end. And that really restores the normal backlog and maintenance schedule that we had really going back to 2019. So that's the most meaningful change in terms of the EOR business that we're approaching this year.
即使在周期中段的价格下，这也是一个回报非常高的投资。因此，我们预计能够通过增加一些油井服务钻机，到年底将产量提高到每天6000桶左右。这实际上是恢复了我们自2019年以来的正常积压和维护计划。因此，这是我们今年在EOR业务方面最有意义的改变。
Raphaël DuBois 拉斐尔·杜布瓦
Excellent. And my follow-up will be actually on Algeria. I see that you're going to have some activity there in 2022. I was wondering if you could tell us a bit more what you have in store for the for this part of the world, knowing that we, in Europe, are going to need much more gas from other suppliers. And it will be great if you had some projects, some gas projects in Algeria, for instance.
优秀。我的后续问题实际上是关于阿尔及利亚的。我看到你们在 2022 年将在那里进行一些活动。我想知道你能否告诉我们更多关于你们在这个地区的计划，考虑到我们在欧洲将需要更多来自其他供应商的天然气。如果你们在阿尔及利亚有一些项目，比如天然气项目，那就太好了。
Ken Dillon 肯·迪伦
It's Ken here. First of all, I'd say the operations team had a great year last year and achieved a 50,000-barrel-a-day milestone. On the contract side, we spent the time optimizing the future development plans that you're sort of alluding to. And we worked through the legal framework around the new hydrocarbon law, which is designed to encourage for an investment in the country.
我是肯。首先，我想说运营团队去年表现出色，达成了每天 5 万桶的里程碑。在合同方面，我们花时间优化了您所提到的未来发展计划。我们还研究了新的碳氢化合物法的法律框架，该法律旨在鼓励对该国的投资。
This year, we'll drill four wells. There'll be two injectors, two producers. And we've now started negotiations with Sonatrach and went the early stages. It was a large American company with state-of-the-art shale capabilities. We think we have a lot to offer the country going forward. And hopefully, the ops in Europe are also. We'll keep you updated on our progress at the next call.
今年，我们将钻四口井，其中两口是注入井，两口是生产井。我们现在已经开始与Sonatrach进行谈判，并处于早期阶段。我们与一家拥有最先进页岩技术的大型美国公司合作，认为未来可以为该国提供很多帮助。同时，我们也希望欧洲的运营能够取得进展。我们将在下次电话会议上为您更新我们的进展情况。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Vicki Hollub for any closing remarks.
谢谢大家。女士们，先生们，这次问答环节到此结束。我想把会议交还给维基·霍拉布，让她做最后的总结发言。
Vicki Hollub 维基·霍卢布
Before we go, I'd like to say that we stand in firm condemnation of the insane and inhumane actions taken by Putin and Russia to invade Ukraine. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all the people of Ukraine.
在我们离开之前，我想说我们坚决谴责普京和俄罗斯对乌克兰的疯狂和不人道的侵略行为。我们的思念和祈祷与乌克兰的所有人民同在。
Thank you all for your questions for joining our call today.
感谢大家今天参加我们的电话会议并提出问题。
Operator 操作员
Thank you, ma'am. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
谢谢您，女士。今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢大家参加今天的演示。您现在可以断开连接，祝您有美好的一天。
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