2022-11-02 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call November 2, 2022 9:30 AM ET
Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) 2022 年第三季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2022 年 11 月 2 日上午 9:30
Company Participants 公司参与者
Doug Constantine - Director of Investor Relations
Doug Constantine - 投资者关系总监
Tricia Griffith - President & Chief Executive Officer
特里西娅-格里菲斯 - 总裁兼首席执行官
Pat Callahan - President of Personal Lines
Pat Callahan - 个人业务部总裁
John Sauerland - Chief Financial Officer
约翰-绍尔兰 - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行
Michael Phillips - Morgan Stanley
迈克尔-菲利普斯 - 摩根士丹利
Mike Zaremski - BMO
Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs
亚历克斯-斯科特 - 高盛集团
Greg Peters - Raymond James
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Gary Ransom - Dowling Partners
Josh Shanker - Bank of America
Josh Shanker - 美国银行
Andrew Kligerman - Credit Suisse
Andrew Kligerman - 瑞士信贷
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Tracy Benguigui - Barclays
Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行
Meyer Shields - KBW
Operator 操作员
Good morning, and welcome to the Progressive Corporation's Third Quarter Investor Event. The company will not make detailed comments related to quarterly results in addition to those provided in its quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website. Acting as moderator for the event will be Progressive Director of Investor Relations, Doug Constantine.
早上好，欢迎参加 Progressive 公司第三季度投资者活动。除已发布在公司网站上的 10-Q 表季报和致股东信中提供的内容外，公司不会就季度业绩发表详细评论。Progressive 投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine 将担任此次活动的主持人。
At this time, I will turn the event over to Mr. Constantine.
现在，我请康斯坦丁先生发言。
Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁
Thank you, Austin, and good morning. Although our quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60-minute schedule for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. Questions can only be asked by telephone dial-in participants. The dial-in instructions maybe be found at investors.progressive.com/events.
谢谢你，奥斯汀，早上好。虽然我们的季度投资者关系活动通常包括对公司特定业务的介绍，但今天我们将利用 60 分钟的时间安排首席执行官的开场白和领导团队成员的问答环节。提问只能通过电话拨号方式进行。拨号说明请访问 investors.progressive.com/events。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, as supplemented by our 10-Q reports for the first, second and third quarter of 2022, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements, and other discussions of the challenges we face. Before going to our first question from the conference call line, our CEO, Tricia Griffith, will make some introductory comments. Tricia?
一如既往，本次活动的讨论可能包括前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，存在许多风险和不确定性，可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的内容存在实质性差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们截至2021年12月31日的10-K年度报告，以及2022年第一、第二和第三季度的10-Q补充报告。在电话会议听众提出第一个问题之前，我们的首席执行官特里西娅-格里菲斯（Tricia Griffith）将发表一些介绍性评论。Tricia?
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, Doug. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. When our customers interact with us they're often doing so on their worst day, maybe their vehicle was just stolen, maybe they were injured in a car accident or their property damage was analyzed. This fact comes into even sharper focus during a major catastrophe such as Hurricane Ian.
谢谢，道格。早上好，感谢您参加今天的会议。当我们的客户与我们互动时，他们往往是在最糟糕的一天这样做的，也许他们的车辆刚刚被盗，也许他们在车祸中受伤，或者他们的财产损失得到了分析。在伊恩飓风这样的重大灾难中，这一事实更加凸显。
While watching the footage of devastation, my heart went out to all those who were affected by the storm. For millions it was truly their worst day. And I'm proud of the part Progressive plays to help people recover from such a calamitous event.
看着满目疮痍的画面，我对所有受风暴影响的人们表示同情。对数百万人来说，这确实是他们最糟糕的一天。我为 Progressive 能够帮助人们从如此灾难性的事件中恢复过来而感到自豪。
Within hours after the storm, Progressive had over 1,500 people ready to help our customers start to rebuild their lives. And while we cannot always replace what was lost, our people are in place to make it as easy as possible for our customers to return to normalcy. Thank you to all the Progressive customers who trust us to make their worst day more manageable.
暴风雨过后几小时内，Progressive 就有超过 1500 名员工准备好帮助我们的客户开始重建生活。虽然我们无法永远弥补损失，但我们的员工已经就位，尽可能让客户轻松地恢复正常生活。感谢所有信任我们的 Progressive 客户，是他们让最糟糕的日子变得更容易度过。
In my letter, I shared some of the Herculean efforts that our employees were making on behalf of our customers and there are many more where that came from. Needless to say, I'm very proud of so many.
在我的信中，我与大家分享了我们的员工代表客户所做的一些艰苦努力，还有更多的努力。不用说，我为这么多员工感到骄傲。
While, Hurricane Ian was the largest single event in the third quarter, it was not the whole story. Excluding catastrophe losses, our third quarter company-wide combined ratio improved 1.9 points year-over-year and illustrates the significant work we've done to combat the effects of inflation and working towards achieving our goal of an underwriting margin of at least 4%, specifically in personal auto.
虽然飓风伊恩是第三季度最大的单一事件，但这并不是全部。如果不计巨灾损失，第三季度全公司的综合赔付率同比提高了 1.9 个百分点，这说明我们在抵御通胀影响方面做了大量工作，并努力实现承保利润率不低于 4% 的目标，特别是在个人汽车业务方面。
As we stated after the first quarter, with the exception of a few markets, our major personal auto rate revisions are behind us, so we continue to be vigilant and adjust rates as our loss experience develops.
正如我们在第一季度后指出的那样，除少数市场外，主要的个人汽车保险费率调整已经过去，因此我们将继续保持警惕，并根据损失情况调整费率。
In the third quarter, we increased personal auto rates in 20 states at average of about 5% per state for a total countrywide premium impact of plus 2%. The third quarter rate action brings our countrywide year-to-date rate increases to nearly 12%. We continue to closely monitor frequency and severity trends to ensure we stay true to our stated goal of profit before growth.
第三季度，我们上调了 20 个州的个人汽车保险费率，平均每个州上调约 5%，对全国保费的总影响为正 2%。第三季度的费率行动使我们今年迄今为止的全国费率增幅接近 12%。我们将继续密切关注频率和严重程度趋势，以确保实现我们既定的 "先盈利后增长 "的目标。
这样的幅度至少涨了3年，最终都会走到头，然后进入下一波的周期。
So we have continued to take rate. We believe we took rate earlier than the industry, which initially negatively impacted volume, but more recently has created opportunities for growth. Consumer shopping and quoting has increased more than 20% in both the agency and direct channels. In fact in both channels we had the best July, August and September in our company's history for quote volume. This prospect growth is despite a lower acquisition expense ratio as compared to 2021, allowing us to be a beneficiary, as competitors have pulled back on marketing spend. This combination of lower competitor spend and our continued advancement of the science of media planning and buying, led to an incredible increase in efficiency in our media spend and has helped propel this quarter's growth.
我们继续提高费率。我们相信我们比行业更早地提高了费率，这最初对业务量产生了负面影响，但最近为增长创造了机会。在代理和直销渠道，消费者购物和询价都增加了超过20%。事实上，在这两个渠道，我们在公司的历史上都经历了7月、8月和9月询价量最高的时期。尽管与2021年相比，我们的客户获取费用比率较低，但这种潜在增长使我们受益，因为竞争对手减少了市场支出。竞争对手支出减少和我们在媒体计划和购买科学方面的持续进步，使我们的媒体支出效率大幅提升，并帮助推动了本季度的增长。
Auto quote growth coupled with continued improvement in conversion, as our competitors raised rates, led to auto new application growth of 20% in the quarter including the highest August and highest September combined to channel new application volume that we've seen in the company's history. Total personal auto year-over-year PIF growth is still negative, but we've now seen several months of sequential monthly PIF growth led by the growth in the direct channel and flattening in the agency channel. The sequential growth has been bolstered not only by new application growth but signs of improving retention.
由于我们的竞争对手提高了费率，汽车报价的增长加上转换率的持续改善，使得本季度汽车新申请量增长了 20%，其中 8 月份和 9 月份的渠道新申请量之和达到了公司历史上的最高水平。个人汽车总的 PIF 年同比增长仍为负值，但在直销渠道增长和代理渠道持平的带动下，我们已连续数月实现月 PIF 增长。连续增长不仅得益于新申请量的增长，也得益于保有量改善的迹象。
In last quarter's call, we spent considerable time talking about our property business and efforts we are taking to return to profitable growth. The losses incurred from Hurricane Ian further highlight the need to shift our mix to less volatile state. As expected, PIF growth in properties slowed in the quarter, as we make progress in this multiyear goal. Our assets continue unabated with rate and non-rate actions, as we work towards a mix that is more reflective of the market.
在上一季度的电话会议上，我们花了大量时间讨论我们的房地产业务，以及我们为恢复盈利增长所做的努力。伊恩飓风造成的损失进一步凸显了我们需要将业务组合转向波动较小的状态。正如预期的那样，随着我们在实现这一多年目标方面取得进展，本季度物业的 PIF 增长有所放缓。我们的资产继续有增无减地采取费率和非费率行动，努力实现更能反映市场的组合。
资本不够充足，这个问题看着很难改变，被自己的做法困住了，1美元的保费只赚4美分，低价从来不是好的战略。
Given this volatile backdrop, it's only natural that the insurance industry would be facing questions regarding capital. So we thought it would be useful to quickly summarize our strong capital position. As discussed in our annual report, we view our capital position as consisting of multiple layers. First, in our insurance operating subsidiaries, we maintain adequate surplus to support growing as fast as we can at or below a 96 combined ratio.
在这种动荡的背景下，保险业自然会面临有关资本的问题。因此，我们认为有必要快速总结一下我们雄厚的资本状况。正如我们在年度报告中所述，我们认为我们的资本状况由多个层面组成。首先，在我们的保险业务子公司中，我们保持足够的盈余，以支持我们在综合比率不超过 96 的情况下尽可能快地发展。
Our extreme contingency layer includes capital in excess of regulatory capital that ensures on a model basis, a less than 100 and 200 probability that we will need to raise additional capital. We have $4.2 billion that we held at quarter end in a non-insurance subsidiary of the holding company level, which is well access of that contingency layer and is highly liquid due to mostly being comprised of short-term securities and treasuries.
我们的极端应急层包括超出监管资本的资本，以确保在模型基础上，我们需要筹集额外资本的可能性小于 100 和 200。截至本季度末，我们在控股公司一级的非保险子公司持有 42 亿美元，这远远超出了应急层，而且由于主要由短期证券和国债组成，因此流动性很高。
While we have incurred temporary losses in our investment portfolio due to the significant move in interest rates, our fixed portfolio is extremely conservative with over half of the portfolio in cash or treasuries and a portfolio duration at the end of the quarter at 2.7 years. Throughout the year, we have taken proactive measures to prepare the portfolio for various scenarios by reducing interest rate, credit and equity risk.
虽然利率的大幅波动给我们的投资组合带来了暂时的损失，但我们的固定投资组合极为保守，一半以上的投资组合为现金或国债，本季度末的投资组合期限为 2.7 年。在这一年里，我们采取了积极的措施，通过降低利率、信贷和股票风险，为投资组合应对各种情况做好准备。
Another proactive measure we took was to raise $1.5 billion of 5, 10- and 30-year debt in March at an average 3% interest rate. Due to the highly uncertain outlook, we felt it was prudent to have extra capital at what we viewed as very attractive borrowing rates. As we sit, we have no near-term bond maturities that we have to address in this higher interest rate environment, the combination of the borrowing along with significant interest -- increase in interest rates have been the primary drivers in moving our debt to total capital ratio over 30% at September month end to 30.2%.
我们采取的另一项积极措施是在 3 月份以平均 3% 的利率筹集了 15 亿美元的 5 年期、10 年期和 30 年期债务。由于前景极不确定，我们认为以我们认为非常有吸引力的借贷利率获得额外资金是明智之举。目前，在利率较高的环境下，我们没有短期债券到期需要处理，借贷加上利率的大幅上升，是我们的债务与总资本比率在 9 月底超过 30% 达到 30.2% 的主要原因。
保险浮存金已经是一种负债，再进行额外的负债是个问题。
We expect underwriting gains changes in the value of our bond portfolio as bonds approach maturity and investment income to bring us back below 30% in time. We are currently taking no additional actions to bring the ratio below 30% and have no near-term plan or need for raising further capital.
我们预计，随着债券即将到期，债券投资组合价值的承销收益变化以及投资收入将使我们的债券投资比率及时回到 30% 以下。目前，我们没有采取任何额外行动来使这一比率低于 30%，也没有进一步筹集资金的近期计划或需求。
Again, thank you for joining us and now we'll take your questions.
再次感谢您的参与，现在我们将回答您的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The question comes from the line -- our first question comes from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Elyse please proceed.
谢谢[第一个问题来自富国银行的伊丽丝-格林斯潘（Elyse Greenspan）。请继续
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on loss adjustment expenses. I know you guys had called them out in reference to your property book in September and not in reference to the auto book. I'm just trying to get a sense and there were some comments in the queue. It doesn't seem like LAE is a high component of auto losses. And the reason I ask is it does look like the underlying loss ratio did trend higher in September and that does run a little counter to some of your comments right that it seems like you're at where you need from a rating perspective in the majority of states. So I'm hoping you can just help me kind of tie that together?
嗨，谢谢。早上好。我的第一个问题是关于损失调整费用（Loss Adjustment Expenses）。我知道你们在九月份的财产险账目中已经提到了损失调整费用，但没有提到汽车险账目。我只是想了解一下，排队的人中也有一些意见。LAE在汽车损失中的占比似乎并不高。我问这个问题的原因是，9月份的基本损失率确实呈上升趋势，这确实与你的一些评论有点背道而驰，因为从评级的角度来看，你似乎在大多数州都达到了你需要的水平。所以我希望你能帮我把这些联系起来。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah, absolutely. Let me start Elyse with the LAE. So when you think about vehicles, which I would include auto and special lines, there's not much incremental LAE when a catastrophe happens. So for years and years we built up a CAT team and it's now commensurate to the size that we are. So when a CAT happens, really the incremental LAE on that part is travel costs, hotel costs, et cetera.
是的，当然。让我先让伊丽丝说说 LAE。所以，当你考虑到车辆，包括汽车和特殊险种时，当灾难发生时，并不会有太多的增量 LAE。因此，多年来，我们建立了一个灾难减损团队，现在已经与我们的规模相称。因此，当灾难发生时，真正的增量 LAE 是差旅费、酒店费用等。
And then during the year those people are able to do other things. So as an example in Ian right now they're in Florida working those files. But then as that slows down, if there aren't other weather related events or catastrophes, they might go work in the salvage department to work through that salvage. So it's not hugely incremental.
然后在这一年里，这些人可以做其他事情。例如，在伊恩，他们现在正在佛罗里达处理这些文件。但随着时间的推移，如果没有其他与天气相关的事件或灾难，他们可能会去打捞部门处理打捞工作。因此，这并不是一个巨大的增量。
We called it out on the property side, because that is a little bit more incremental on that $25 million of the $200 million of the reinsurance. And that was because we do use some independent appraiser’s adjusters to help with the property claim. So that's the reason why we called it out. And that will evolve. We wanted to assess a certain point for LAE and a certain point for loss, and that will evolve as the storm developed.
我们把房产方面的理赔提了出来，因为在 2 亿美元的再保险中，这 2,500 万美元的增量更大一些。这是因为我们确实使用了一些独立估价师的理算师来帮助处理房产索赔。所以，这就是我们把它叫出来的原因。这种情况还会发展。我们希望评估某个点的 LAE 和某个点的损失，这将随着风暴的发展而变化。
In terms of where we're at, I do feel very comfortable. Like I said in most markets there are a few that we don't have the rate we need. And we're going to continue to take smaller bites of the apple, which is what we prefer to do and that's why I wanted to outline that in my letter and opening comments. But here's how I would think about where we're at from the perspective of adequate rates. And this is a very high level. So you’d have to think about this in terms of new versus renewal, channel, et cetera.
就我们目前的状况而言，我确实感觉很舒服。就像我说的，在大多数市场中，有几个市场我们没有达到所需的费率。我们将继续小口咬苹果，这也是我们喜欢做的事，这也是我想在信中和开场白中概述这一点的原因。但从适当的费率角度来看，我认为我们目前的情况是这样的。这是一个很高的水平。因此，你必须从新建与续建、渠道等方面来考虑这个问题。
So our frequency is down 9%, our severity is up 13% in aggregate. So think about a 4% net loss ratio. Our average written premium is up 8%. So you want to think of that maybe about 6.5 points to earn in. So when I think about that I feel good about where we're at again. We're watching inflation very closely. But we do feel, I'm confident that in most venues we have the rate we need to grow and we'll try to propel that growth where we can and slow where we don't believe our rates are adequate. Does that help?
因此，我们的频率下降了 9%，严重程度累计上升了 13%。净损失率为 4%。我们的平均承保保费增长了 8%。因此，你想一想，也许可以赚取 6.5 个点。因此，当我想到这一点时，我对我们的现状再次感到满意。我们正在密切关注通货膨胀。但我们确实感觉到，我相信在大多数地方，我们都有我们需要的增长速度，我们会努力在我们能做到的地方推动增长，在我们认为我们的速度不够快的地方放慢速度。这样做有帮助吗？
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Yeah. But as a follow-up to that was there something in September just because the underlying loss ratio did look like not that it only trended up from August, but it trended up from last September. So was there something just related to losses running hot in September relative to last year?
是的。但作为后续问题，9 月份是否出现了一些情况，因为基本损失率看起来并不只是比 8 月份呈上升趋势，而是比去年 9 月份呈上升趋势。那么，与去年相比，9 月份的损失率是否有所上升？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Nothing in particular and this is the curse of releasing monthly earnings. I wouldn't look into one month and put much into that.
没有什么特别的，这就是发布月度收入的诅咒。我不会只看一个月就投入很多。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay. Thanks. And then my second question as we think about getting to the end of the year and I know you guys mentioned this in your Q as well, we hear about used car prices coming down and I know that was what started to lead to the elevated severity last year. Have you guys ever broken out what component of your loss costs are driven off of used car prices, or can you just help us think through that, and the benefit that you guys could see as those values come down?
好的，谢谢。我的第二个问题是，随着年底的临近，我知道你们在季度报告中也提到了这一点，我们听说二手车价格正在下降，我知道这是导致去年损失严重性上升的原因。你们是否曾经分解过你们损失成本中有多少部分是由二手车价格驱动的，或者你们能否帮助我们思考一下，随着这些价值下降，你们可能看到的好处？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, we look at the components. But what I would say is, although the wholesale prices are trending down, they're still at all-time high. So we will continue to watch that. And I think especially, we will watch it based on the fact that there are a lot of total losses that have happened in Florida with Hurricane Ian, so that could even increase demand. So, we try to break out as much as we can.
好吧，我们来看看其中的组成部分。但我要说的是，虽然批发价格呈下降趋势，但仍处于历史高位。因此，我们将继续关注。我认为，尤其是在佛罗里达州飓风伊恩造成大量损失的情况下，我们会继续关注，因为这甚至会增加需求。因此，我们会尽可能地突破。
When we look at severity, we look more at overall loss cost in terms of size of vehicles, labor rates, parts prices, rental price, et cetera. So, there's a lot of components that go into that. But, we're going to wait and see and continue to watch the Manheim Index and watch what happens after Ian and if we -- and we'll see that in our severity trends.
当我们考虑严重程度时，我们更多考虑的是车辆大小、人工费、零件价格、租赁价格等方面的整体损失成本。因此，这里面有很多因素。但是，我们将拭目以待，继续关注曼海姆指数，观察伊恩指数之后的情况，以及我们是否 -- 我们将在严重性趋势中看到这一点。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay. Thank you for the color.
好的谢谢你的颜色。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, Elyse. 谢谢你，伊丽丝。
Operator 操作员
Our next question is with Michael Phillips from Morgan Stanley. Michael, your line is open.
下一个问题是摩根士丹利的迈克尔-菲利普斯（Michael Phillips）。迈克尔，您的电话已接通。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Thanks. Good morning. Tricia, I wonder if you could peel back some of the layers on the frequency still favorable, in fact looks against even more so than prior quarters. I guess, can you talk about what you're seeing in your book for maybe work-from-home trends and sustainability of that? And kind of what you're baking into current pricing for how much you're baking on that to continue in your current price levels? Thanks.
谢谢。早上好，特里西亚，我想知道您是否能进一步解释一下，为什么我们的频率仍然有利，实际上看起来比上个季度更加明显。我猜想，您能否谈谈在您的账簿中，您观察到的可能是在家工作的趋势，以及这种趋势的可持续性？还有，您在当前定价中考虑了多少这种趋势将继续下去的因素？谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Sure Michael. So, in quarter three with our snapshot data, we saw vehicle miles traveled down about 11%. Previously, it was down about 14%. What we're seeing is commute miles have stayed flat. And during the quarter, we saw that traveled miles. So think of those defined as queuing from your home, 100 miles queuing from your home.
当然，迈克尔根据我们的快照数据，第三季度的车辆行驶里程下降了约 11%。在此之前，则下降了约 14%。我们看到的是通勤里程保持平稳。而在本季度，我们看到的是行驶里程。因此，将这些里程定义为从家出发的排队里程，从家出发的排队里程为 100 英里。
So we think that might have been based on some lower gas prices, people were doing some last-minute travel because of those prices in their cars in -- during before Labor Day visiting grandma or whatever, and that usually involves less losses. So, come it's more congestion, you're going to have more losses. So we think about it that way.
因此，我们认为这可能是基于一些较低的汽油价格，人们因为这些价格而在最后一刻开车出行，在劳动节前去看望祖母或其他什么的，而这通常涉及较少的损失。因此，如果交通更加拥堵，损失就会更大。所以我们是这样考虑的。
I don't think we'll know where frequency sort of trend long-term, until probably a quarter or two, because I know a lot of companies said, they were returning to work after Labor Day. So you're thinking in September. So what we'd like to do is, wait at least a couple of quarters to see if that sort of bottomed out and look at that pre-pandemic to 2019.
我不认为我们会知道频率的长期趋势，可能要等到一两个季度，因为我知道很多公司都说，他们会在劳动节后恢复工作。所以你会想到九月份。所以，我们想做的是，至少等上几个季度，看看是否已经触底，然后再看2019年大流行前的情况。
And then we'll feel I think a little bit more confident, because I know a lot of companies have gone back and forth on how often their employees need to work. And I think a lot of it will depend too on COVID and flu, et cetera. So we're going to wait a few quarters, but that's what we're seeing right now on our UBI data.
然后，我们就会觉得更有信心了，因为我知道很多公司都在员工需要多久工作一次的问题上反反复复。我认为这在很大程度上也取决于 COVID 和流感等因素。因此，我们还需要等待几个季度，但这就是我们现在看到的 UBI 数据。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Okay and one clarification to that. So Tricia mentioned frequency or vehicle miles traveled was down 11% that was referencing the pre-pandemic period. So when we think about vehicle mile travel, we continue to measure it relative to pre-COVID and interestingly, frequency is down a bit more than vehicle miles traveled and that's continued for quite some time has not yet come back. And we believe to Tricia's comments that, that is due to some degree to the mix of miles traveled.
好的，还有一点需要澄清。特里西娅提到频率或车辆行驶里程下降了 11%，这指的是大流行前的情况。因此，当我们考虑车辆行驶英里数时，我们会继续测量与 COVID 前相比的情况，有趣的是，频率的下降幅度比车辆行驶英里数的下降幅度要大一些，而且这种情况已经持续了相当长的一段时间，至今仍未恢复。我们相信，正如特里西娅所说，这在一定程度上是由于混合行驶里程造成的。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Yes. Perfect. Okay. Thanks for that. I guess, can you talk about -- used car prices coming down and how that impacts, I guess the mix of your strategy of kind of either fixing cars versus salvaging cars and how that -- I don't know if you talked about the impact of that last year when there was just a reverse of that when our prices were so high. So any impact of -- what's the impact of that on the loss ratio last year of changing the strategy because of how high prices were and how that might change as we go forward from here?
是的。好极了 Perfect.好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢。我想，你能谈谈 -- 二手车价格下降，以及这对你的修车策略和残值策略的组合有什么影响，以及这对 -- 我不知道你是否谈到了去年的影响，当时我们的价格如此之高，正好与之相反。那么，这对去年因价格过高而改变策略所造成的损失率有什么影响？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, I don't know that we changed the strategy. It just happened to be that cars were more expensive, so it took more to total them. And then we did total them part -- components were more expenses. So we'll always look at the actual cash value of the vehicle and then the cost repair, which could take into account rental, et cetera. So that's how we always look at it. And then you overlay the actual cost of the cars whether new or used when you make those assessments.
我不知道我们是否改变了策略。只是碰巧汽车更贵了，所以需要花更多的钱来组装。然后，我们又对车辆的部分部件进行了估价--部件的费用更高。因此，我们总是先看车辆的实际现金价值，然后再看维修成本，其中可能会考虑到租金等因素。所以，我们总是这么看。然后，在进行评估时，无论新车还是二手车，都会叠加实际成本。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Just a little more clarification on that sense since Lisa had a similar question. When we think about the increase in severity for physical damage coverages, so property damage collision, et cetera walking around numbers about half of that increase is from the increase in used car values. That is both when we total a car but as Tricia was mentioning you total fewer cars, because the car is worth more. So you're going to -- your estimates on repairs are going to go up as a result of used car prices as well. So it's a little tough to tease out but sort of walking around is probably half of the severity increases we've seen physical damage coverages are due to the increase in values.
当我们考虑对物理损害保险（如财产损害、碰撞等）的严重性增加时，大约有一半的增加是由于二手车价值的上升。这不仅发生在我们对车辆进行全损处理时，而且因为车辆价值更高，所以全损的车辆数量实际上减少了。因此，由于二手车价格的上涨，您的维修费用估计也会增加。所以，虽然很难完全区分出来，但大致上可以说，我们看到的物理损害保险严重性的增加中，可能有一半是由于价值上升造成的。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Great point. 说得好
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
All right. Thank you. 好的 谢谢 All right.谢谢
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, Michael. 谢谢，迈克尔。
Operator 操作员
Our next question is with Mike Zaremski from BMO. Mike, your line is open.
下一个问题是来自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。迈克，你的电话畅通。
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Hey, great. Good morning. Sticking to the auto severity side of the equation, lots of good color, thank you so far. Maybe curious if you could offer any color and whether there's any trends you're seeing on the bodily and reside or maybe just severity ex kind of used car prices more broadly?
嘿，太好了早上好关于汽车的严重性方面，到目前为止有很多很好的信息，谢谢。也许你很好奇，你是否能提供一些颜色，以及你是否在身体和居住方面看到任何趋势，或者只是更广泛的二手车价格的严重性？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
So on the bodily injury side, Mike?
那么在人身伤害方面，迈克？
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Correct. 正确。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. We've actually seen the bodily injury has been fairly stable in the kind of 6% to 8% range. And of course it went up after the pandemic that was based on more attorney representation, more soft tissue attorney representation not necessarily litigation and then just the overall social inflation. But we're seeing that level out in the 6% to 8% range.
是的。实际上，我们看到人身伤害赔偿在6%到8%的范围内相当稳定。当然，在疫情之后有所上升，这是基于更多的律师代表，更多软组织伤害的律师代表，而不一定是诉讼，以及整体的社会通货膨胀。但我们发现这一比例在6%到8%的范围内趋于平稳。
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
And that's kind of considered kind of a more normal range when you think about versus pre-pandemic levels, there's kind of no secular trend or something that we should be thinking about moving around there materially?
与大流行前的水平相比，这算是一个比较正常的范围，没有什么世俗趋势或我们应该考虑的实质性变化？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I mean, it's hard to say because during the pandemic, there was little or none and then I think it went up pretty significantly. So yes, I think that would be accurate to say in that range of pre-pandemic.
是的，我的意思是，这很难说，因为在大流行期间，几乎没有或根本没有，然后我认为它上升得相当明显。所以，是的，我认为说在大流行前的这个范围内是准确的。
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Okay. I guess, just going back to frequency again just curious you guys are now able to give us some great stats on vehicle miles traveled and what you're seeing commuter versus maybe non-commuter trips? And kind of just curious does the data you have today does it allow you to -- Progressive to be any more agile, or do you guys do things definitely when setting rates today versus maybe when you think back to the 2016, 2017 frequency spike cycle that you feel you can take advantage or be more opportunistic, or is it still kind of -- nothing has changed much? It's very tough to figure out frequency and I'm thinking too much about this?
好的。我猜，再次回到频率问题，我只是好奇你们现在能否给我们一些关于行驶里程的统计数据，以及你们看到的通勤与非通勤行程的情况？还有，我只是好奇，你们今天拥有的数据是否允许你们——Progressive——变得更敏捷，或者你们在设定费率时是否确实做了一些事情，与2016年、2017年频率飙升周期相比，你们是否觉得自己可以利用或更有机会主义，还是说基本上——没有什么变化？弄清楚频率仍然非常困难，我是不是想得太多了？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
No, I think you're thinking -- well, we're thinking about it all the time. The hard part is -- there's so many macroeconomic trends that affects frequency. You saw that with gas prices. And so, I think there's a lot of things that we constantly look at in our models. I think, the best thing, when we think of pricing for our customers, is to encourage them to use snapshot. And that's us a big approach for people, who want to be able to save money, especially if they are not driving. So, we've seen an uptick in the take rate and our mix of business, new business in UBI. And we think that's great because, if consumers cars are sitting in their garages, more often than not, they should get a discount as long as when they're driving that they're driving safely.
不，我认为你在想 -- 我们一直在想这个问题。困难的是，有太多的宏观经济趋势会影响频率。油价就是一个例子。因此，我认为在我们的模型中，有很多东西是我们要不断关注的。我认为，当我们考虑为客户定价时，最好的办法就是鼓励他们使用快照。对于那些希望省钱的人来说，尤其是在不开车的情况下，这是我们的一个重要方法。因此，我们看到 UBI 的使用率和业务组合、新业务都在上升。我们认为这很好，因为如果消费者的汽车停在车库里，只要他们安全驾驶，就应该得到折扣。
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
And are those Snapshot customers, just as my final follow-up, slightly more profitable over time than the non-Snapshot customers? Thanks.
作为我最后的追问，随着时间的推移，这些 "快照 "客户的盈利能力是否略高于非 "快照 "客户？谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. No, not necessarily.
是的。不，不一定。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
We continue to price as accurately as we can with the data we have. So, as our snapshot database continues to grow and we move to a continuous monitoring model, we have an increasing data set to work with and an ongoing data set to work with, because we have continuous monitoring. And I think, in eight states now and are continuing to roll that across the country. Early on with Snapshot, we weren't pricing completely to the curve, if you will. And as consumer adoption, as Tricia noted, has gotten to be really good and growing. We've been more and more comfortable with pricing to the full curve, which is the best accurate segmentation we can get.
我们将继续利用现有数据尽可能准确地定价。因此，随着我们的快照数据库不断扩大，以及我们向持续监测模式的转变，我们有越来越多的数据集可供使用，也有持续的数据集可供使用，因为我们有持续的监测。我认为，我们现在已经在八个州开展了这项工作，并将继续在全国范围内推广。在 "快照 "的早期，我们并没有完全按照曲线定价。随着消费者的采用，正如特里西娅所指出的，已经变得非常好，而且还在不断增长。我们越来越倾向于按照完整的曲线定价，这是我们所能得到的最准确的细分。
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question is with Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs. Alex, your line is open.
下一个问题是来自高盛的亚历克斯-斯科特（Alex Scott）。亚历克斯，您的电话已接通。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Hi. Question I had was just on the strategy of pivot into growth and pricing. When I think about the timing of when you all sort of looked at it and decided that, you could take maybe the foot off the accelerator on price a little bit, feeling better about your adequacy. Since that time, there's been some benefit from gas prices and frequency that may go away. And there's also, I think been increases to sort of the non-used car pieces of severity and medical costs and wage inflation sort of impacting things, is being able to stick to that and try to drive growth here. I mean, is there a risk that those things force you to change course? I mean, how should I think about that risk of sort of different severity items and getting a little worse, since you started down that road on the strategy?
您好。我想问的只是关于转向增长和定价策略的问题。当我考虑你们何时开始审视并决定可能稍微放松价格加速器，对你们的充足性感到更有信心的时候。从那时起，由于汽油价格和频率的下降，确实带来了一些好处，但这些好处可能会消失。同时，我认为还有非二手车部分的严重性增加、医疗费用和工资通胀等因素也在上升，这些都在影响着情况，你们是否能够坚持这一策略并尝试在这里推动增长。我的意思是，这些因素是否有可能迫使你们改变方向？我的意思是，我应该如何考虑这些不同严重性项目的风险，自从你们开始实施这一策略以来，它们是否变得更糟了？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. We have had a long-term strategy to grow as fast as we can at/or below a 96 combined ratio. That will continue. That's something that's worked for us 85 years or at least since we went public in 1971, we first started talking about the 96. So, we will do that. We watch trends very, very diligently and take actions quickly when -- and decisively when we need to. Unfortunately, in this last year, we've had to take rate increases that we normally do to take. We don't like to take huge rate increases unlike we have. Like, we talk about smaller bites of the apple, which we believe we're now in a position to take as things change in each venue. So, our strategy hasn't changed. We're going to try to grow as fast as we can. Obviously, with the hurricane we're over 96, so we have a few months to go and we're going to continue to try to leverage this really unique opportunity to get growth while still maintaining our 96 combined ratio.
是的。我们有一个长期的策略，即以96的综合比率或以下的速度尽可能快地增长。这将继续下去。这对我们来说已经做了85年，或者至少自1971年我们上市以来，我们第一次开始谈论96。所以，我们会这样做。我们非常、非常认真地观察趋势，并在需要时迅速果断地采取行动。不幸的是，在过去的一年里，我们不得不采取我们通常不会采取的费率增长。我们不喜欢采取巨大的费率增长，就像我们已经做的那样。就像我们谈论的，我们相信我们现在有能力在每个场合发生变化时采取较小的苹果咬，即较小的费率增长。所以，我们的策略没有改变。我们将尝试尽可能快地增长。显然，由于飓风，我们超过了96，所以我们还有几个月的时间，我们将继续尝试利用这个真正独特的机会，在保持96综合比率的同时实现增长。
和BRK差不多起步时间，PGR目前还只有200亿美元的所有者权益，但也走出了自己的风格。
In fact, in September, we had our lowest cost per sale since 2017. So, we're seeing really the advantage of the -- because our competitors aren't advertising as much and are taking rate, we're seeing some really great ambient growth. So, we're going to try to pull all the levers to do that to grow as fast as we can but we do have the 96 that we believe we always talk about profit over growth.
事实上，9 月份的单次销售成本是 2017 年以来最低的。因此，我们看到了真正的优势--因为我们的竞争对手没有做那么多广告，而且正在降低费率，所以我们看到了一些非常好的环境增长。因此，我们将竭尽所能，以最快的速度实现增长，但我们也有 96 个目标，我们相信，我们一直在谈论利润高于增长。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Got it. That's helpful. And could you help us frame the potential impact from higher reinsurance costs as we think through a hard market in reinsurance? And I guess probably impacts you more on the property side.
明白了很有帮助。在我们考虑再保险市场困难的时候，您能帮我们分析一下再保险费用上涨可能带来的影响吗？我想你们可能更多受到财产方面的影响。
And just looking through some of the commentary on your how quickly you can non-renew and sort of do some of the pivoting that you wanted to do. It sounds like some of that's had to slow down for regulatory reasons. What does that all mean when we think through reinsurance cost potentially going up?
我只是看了一些关于你如何快速地不再续约，以及做一些你想做的事情的评论。听起来，由于监管方面的原因，有些工作不得不放缓。当我们考虑到再保险费用可能上升时，这一切意味着什么？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I'll have Dave talk about reinsurance but I'll hit on the sort of de-risking the book. I will say that reinsurance costs we are able to pass on so that is one benefit. But clearly that market is hardening. So, we talked about our goal of de-risking the portfolio specifically moving 60,000 policies out of Florida -- homes out of Florida sort of mitigate that risk. It takes a while.
我会让戴夫谈谈再保险的问题，但我会谈谈降低账本风险的问题。我想说的是，再保险费用我们可以转嫁，所以这是一个好处。但很明显，市场正在硬化。因此，我们谈到了我们的目标，即降低投资组合的风险，特别是将 6 万份保单移出佛罗里达州--将住宅移出佛罗里达州，从而降低风险。这需要一段时间。
So we talked about that last year. We had a 90-day notification period to our customers. So, in earnest we started non-renewing those 60,000 in May of 2022. And then there was a special legislative session and there was a Senate Bill that allowed us -- allows homeowners to renew their policy as long as they could prove through inspection that they had at least five years of useful life left on their roof, which is great because that's okay with us and at least we know the rate to risk when we know how old the roof is.
所以我们去年谈到了这个问题。我们向客户有一个90天的通知期。因此，我们从2022年5月开始认真不续保那6万份保单。然后有一次特别的立法会议，有一个参议院法案允许房主更新他们的保单，只要他们能通过检查证明他们的屋顶至少还有五年的使用寿命，这很好，因为这样我们就可以知道屋顶的年龄，从而知道风险等级。
So, we knew that there would be less than 60,000 policies and it would take a little bit longer. And then, of course, enter Hurricane Ian and there's been a moratorium on non-renews and cancellations from September 28th to November 28th, so we won't be able to not renew any. Until after that is lifted those executive orders are lifted. So, suffice it to say that it's going to take us a little bit longer to de-risk and we get that and we'll continue to update everyone as that happens.
因此，我们知道保单数量会少于 6 万份，需要的时间会更长一些。当然，"伊恩 "飓风之后，从 9 月 28 日到 11 月 28 日，暂停了不续保和取消保单的措施，所以我们不能不续保。直到这些行政命令被取消。因此，我们需要更长的时间来消除风险。
大型科技企业对资本不敏感，很多领域被大型科技企业占领后也会有这样的变化，保险看着不容易变化。
I will say that we are not open for new business in A3 DPI or A06, so home, dwelling fire, and condo and we will not be open for new business until the executive order is lifted. The only caveat is we have some new homes with a select group of builders brand-new homes that we will be working with them, so they can close and have insurance on their home.
我要说的是，A3 DPI 或 A06（住宅、住宅火灾和公寓）的新业务尚未开放，在行政命令解除之前，我们不会开放新业务。唯一需要注意的是，我们将与一些特定的建筑商合作，为他们的全新住宅提供保险。
So, I think the punchline is it's a volatile environment but we remain focused on achieving our goal and having our portfolio of homes across the country and not based on all the risky areas. So, Dave do you want to add anything on the reinsurance
因此，我认为关键在于环境不稳定，但我们仍然专注于实现我们的目标，在全国范围内拥有我们的房屋投资组合，而不是基于所有的风险地区。戴夫，关于再保险，你还有什么要补充的吗？
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
Sure Tricia. Thank you. Good morning everyone. I would just note that we have a long continuous stable trading relationships with lots of big reinsurance providers. And we try to be very transparent with them about our results, and our business plans. And so we feel confident, that we'll continue to have access to the reinsurance that we need. And we believe that we get favorable pricing based on that transparency. It does seem likely that costs will go up, next year and we will pass those through in our rate filings as quickly as we can, to make sure they're accurately reflected in our prices. Thank you.
当然，特里西娅。谢谢大家早上好。我只想说，我们与许多大型再保险提供商保持着长期稳定的贸易关系。我们在业绩和业务计划方面尽量做到透明。因此，我们有信心继续获得所需的再保险。我们相信，基于这种透明度，我们能获得有利的定价。明年的成本确实有可能上升，我们将尽快在费率申报中反映出来，以确保这些成本在我们的价格中得到准确反映。谢谢。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
I'd also add, that if you have some multiyear agreements. So our entire program is normally not up for renewal in any given year, which helps us mitigate the impact of increases and allows us to better put those increases into our primary prices. We do also use some insurance-linked securities, if you will also cap bonds. So we're trying to diversify, our reinsurance and catastrophe coverage program both for time and for the instruments we use to ensure that we are stable as possible.
我还想补充一点，如果你们有一些多年期协议。因此，我们的整个计划通常在任何一年都不会续约，这有助于我们减轻涨价的影响，使我们能够更好地将涨价因素纳入我们的主要价格中。我们还使用一些与保险挂钩的证券，如果你愿意的话，还可以使用上限债券。因此，我们正在努力使我们的再保险和巨灾保险计划多样化，无论是在时间上还是在我们使用的工具上，以确保我们尽可能的稳定。
Q – Alex Scott Q - 亚历克斯-斯科特
Got it. Thank you. 知道了谢谢
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, Alex. 谢谢你，亚历克斯。
Operator 操作员
Our next question is from Greg Peters from Raymond James. Greg, your line is open.
下一个问题来自雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）的格雷格-彼得斯（Greg Peters）。格雷格，您的电话已接通。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Good morning. I guess, I'd like to pivot for the first question on the Commercial Lines results. And I know in your letter, you called out the unusual items with the TNC policies, that affected the third quarter results. And then you said, the net would have been up around 2%, excluding all the noise. And that certainly doesn't seem to be growing as fast as you can, considering your combined ratio is below 96. So [indiscernible] in the letter you mentioned, the bot policies the other -- some of the other initiatives. Can you sort of map out, how you think growth is going to emerge in that business? Because it seems like it's slowing down not speeding up.
早上好。我想，我想问第一个关于商业险业绩的问题。我知道，在你的信中，你提到了 TNC 保单的异常项目，这影响了第三季度的业绩。然后你又说，如果不考虑这些因素，净利润会增长 2%左右。考虑到你的综合比率低于 96%，这个增长速度似乎并不尽如人意。那么，你在信中提到的[无法辨别]机器人政策，以及其他一些举措。你能否描述一下，你认为该业务将如何实现增长？因为它似乎在放缓而不是加速。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes, I can map out sort of what's happened and how we're positioned for the future. So, we had such an opportunity in our four higher trucking business markets here, when the pandemic happened. So many people, as I'm sure you did you're having lots of good ships. So obviously, you had the trucking industry grew, and it grew in different ways. So, we had -- spot rates are up. So a lot of owner-operators would leave from a carrier and go on their own to be able to make it on their own. We were there for them. We were there at the right rate, and we had a history of this customer. So, it's a really beautiful growth.
是的，我可以概述一下发生了什么以及我们对未来的定位。因此，在我们的四个卡车运输业务市场中，当疫情发生时，我们有这样一个机会。这么多人，我相信你也是，有很多好的船只。所以很明显，卡车运输行业增长了，而且增长的方式不同。所以我们有——即期费率上升了。所以，很多车主会离开承运人，自己去经营，以便能够自己生存。我们为他们提供了服务。我们提供了正确的费率，并且我们有这个客户的历史。所以，这是一个真正美丽的增长。
So even when you look at that 2%, you've got to look at the denominator because the last couple of years have been unbelievably successful in commercial lines. So now that spot rates have gone down a little bit and softened, some of those carriers are going -- some of those owner operators are going back to carriers, we do have a couple coverages, non-trucker liability and GL where we can keep those pits, when they're not -- when they're away from doing business with the carrier that they're part of. So we think we'll continue to grow. So that's more of a retention piece.
因此，即使你看到 2%，你也得看看分母，因为过去几年在商业险方面取得了令人难以置信的成功。现在，即期费率略有下降，一些承运商正在 -- 一些车主经营者正在回到承运商那里，我们确实有一些承保范围，非卡车司机责任险和 GL，当他们不 -- 当他们不与他们所属的承运商开展业务时，我们可以留住他们。因此，我们认为我们将继续增长。所以，这更多的是保留这一块。
What I would say is, the opportunity that we have is because we're so diversified in commercial. So think of -- a few years ago, we only wrote 10 or fewer power units. Now we went to 40 and then of course, we purchased Protective, which could give us an opportunity to be able to ensure some of those medium to large fleets. So we feel really good about our position there. And of course, Smart we have in nearly 40 states, I think 37, and that will continue to grow.
我想说的是，我们拥有的机会是因为我们在商业领域非常多元化。所以想想看——几年前，我们只写了10个或更少的动力单元。现在我们增加到了40个，然后当然，我们购买了Protective，这给了我们一个机会，能够为一些中大型车队提供保险。所以我们对我们的定位感觉非常好。当然，Smart几乎在40个州都有业务，我认为是37个，这将继续增长。
Those are things we invested in three-plus years ago, because we know that this -- the commercial lines is very cyclical and very linked to macroeconomic trends. So although, the growth is smaller on a percentage basis, we've grown tremendously in commercial lines. We have a tremendous plan laid out a 10-year plan, Karen Herd your team have laid out to continue to grow and continue to diversify to make sure that we're able to be there when a different economic shift happens.
这些都是我们三年多前投资的，因为我们知道，商业保险的周期性很强，与宏观经济趋势密切相关。因此，尽管按百分比计算，增长幅度较小，但我们在商业保险领域的增长速度非常快。凯伦-赫德（Karen Herd）和你的团队制定了一个长达10年的宏伟计划，以继续增长和继续多元化，确保在经济发生不同变化时，我们能够及时出现。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Okay. I appreciate the detail there. I guess I'm going to pivot for my second question. In your letter you talked about evaluating underwriting restriction bill plans, media spend and this is going to be focused on the expense ratio and the personal lines business. You said in your comments that you're looking at frequency and those type of trends pre-pandemic. So if I look at your expense ratio, pre-pandemic like the 2019-point in time and compared to where it is today. Today it's a lot lower. I guess as you consider ramping up your growth plans in auto, is it conceivable that the expense ratio will start trending back up as you spend more on advertising et cetera? And should we look at the 2019 sort of the base here for where the expense ratio might go to?
好的，我很感谢你的详细说明。我想我要转到第二个问题。在你的信中，你谈到了对承保限制计划、媒体支出的评估，这将集中在费用率和个人业务上。你在评论中说，你正在关注大流行前的频率和这些类型的趋势。那么，如果我看一下你的费用率，大流行前的费用率，比如 2019 年的费用率，与现在的费用率相比。现在要低得多。我想，随着你们考虑加快汽车业务的增长计划，随着你们在广告等方面的支出增加，费用率是否会开始呈上升趋势？我们是否应该把 2019 年作为费用率的基数？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes, it's very conceivable. So we look at expense ratio with the regular expenses and non-acquisition expense ratios. We will spend – given the takeaway to 96 for a moment, we will spend as much as we can as long as we believe it's efficient. So while our expense ratio is lower now, like I said, we're really bullish on growth for this quarter because of what we being in the ambient shopping and just the environment based on our competitors' spending and our competitors' rates. So yes, you could see it go up if we continue to spend in advertising.
是的，这是非常可行的。所以我们在看费用比率时，会同时考虑常规费用和非获取费用比率。只要我们认为它是有效的，我们会尽可能多地支出。所以，尽管我们现在的费用比率较低，正如我所说，我们对这个季度的增长非常看好，这源于我们在环境购物中的表现，以及基于我们竞争对手的支出和费率的环境。所以，如果我们继续在广告上投入，你可能会看到费用比率上升。
I will say that we're constantly looking at our plan on both loss ratio or expense ratio and LAE to make sure we can continue to be efficient because we do want to spend more in the acquisition funnel. So yes, you could see it go up a little bit as we determine what the right spend is. And of course, we have the 96 governor so that is going into play a little bit right now.
我会不断审视我们的计划，无论是在损失比率、费用比率还是损失调整费用（LAE）方面，以确保我们能够继续保持效率，因为我们确实想要在获取客户的渠道上投入更多。所以，是的，当我们确定合适的支出时，你可能会看到它略有上升。当然，我们有96的控制上限，所以这目前正在起到一定作用。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Got it. Thanks for the color.
拿到了谢谢你的颜色。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, Greg. 谢谢，格雷格。
Operator 操作员
Our next question is with David Motemaden from Evercore ISI. David, your line is open.
下一个问题是来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。大卫，您的电话已接通。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Thanks, good morning. Tricia last quarter you said that you don't have local media ad spend on in 19 states. And I think that compared to 26 states as of the end of April. I was wondering if you could share where that stands today? How many states do not have local media on at this point in time? And maybe some color around how much in premium those states represent?
谢谢，早上好。特里西亚，上个季度你提到在19个州没有本地媒体广告支出。我想与4月底的26个州相比。我想知道现在的情况如何？现在有多少个州没有本地媒体广告？也许可以提供一些关于这些州所代表的保费金额的详细信息？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I'll let Pat take that. I'm not sure of the exact number. I believe it's less than 17 though, but I'm not sure exactly. Again, we look at that just based on our ability to grow and our ability to get the right rate. So in the states where we can't get rate, obviously we'll continue to make sure that we do everything we can not to grow. Some we're just waiting for the rates to earn in and we'll start to loosen up those underwriting guidelines and the local media spend. Pat do you want to add anything?
我会请Pat来回答这个问题。我不确定确切的数字。我相信现在不到17个，但我也不确定具体数字。再次强调，我们是基于我们增长的能力以及我们获得合适费率的能力来考虑这个问题的。在那些我们无法获得费率的州，显然我们会继续确保我们尽一切可能不去增长。有些州我们只是在等待费率实现，然后我们会开始放宽那些核保指南和本地媒体支出。Pat，你想补充些什么吗？
Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉
Yes, without sharing kind of number of states because your question about percent of premium is kind of the most relevant piece. The other piece that's complex is we say local media, but there's seven different elements of local media, whether it's digital paid social, direct mail lots of things going on in that space. I think what's important is to get back to Tricia's comment about we will spend when we can afford to spend based on the calendar year targets, when the spend is efficient relative to lifetime performance on the media, and frankly when we need to spend to drive growth. And that's where it's pretty dynamic at the channel level and ultimately the split within local media where we decide to spend versus not spend.
是的，不分享具体州的数量，因为您关于保费百分比的问题是最相关的部分。另一个复杂的部分是我们所说的本地媒体，但实际上本地媒体有七种不同的元素，无论是数字付费社交、直邮还是那个领域正在发生的许多事情。我认为重要的是回到特里西亚的评论，即我们会在我们能够负担得起的时候支出，基于日历年目标，当支出相对于媒体的终身表现是高效的，坦率地说，当我们需要支出以推动增长时。这就是在渠道层面非常动态的地方，最终在本地媒体内部的分配，我们决定在哪里花钱与不花钱。
So right now we have some states, a couple of big ones on the coast where we don't yet have adequate rates on the street and we're optimizing obviously the efficiency of our expenses there given our loss ratios are high because we can't get the rate that we need under the expected losses.
目前我们有一些州，海岸线上的几个大州，我们还没有得到足够的费率，并且我们显然在优化我们在那里的费用效率，鉴于我们的损失比较高，因为我们无法获得我们在预期损失下所需的费率。
So what I would say is, it's dynamic and we make adjustments all the time. And as soon as we get adequate rate we are open for business. And increasingly, we are getting adequate rates in some additional states. It's just taking longer than we had expected to previously.
因此，我想说的是，这是动态的，我们一直在进行调整。只要我们获得足够的费率，我们就可以开展业务。而且，我们正在越来越多地在其他一些州获得足够的费率。只是花费的时间比我们之前预计的要长。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Got it. Thanks. That's helpful. And also Tricia, it was great to get the color just on the capital position and the debt to capital. I guess, I'm wondering if you could help us think about how we should think about the variable dividend level this year? And just, sort of, as you guys think about the growth opportunity that's in front of you how you're, sort of, thinking about that?
知道了谢谢这很有帮助。另外，特里西娅，很高兴能了解资本状况和债务与资本的关系。我想，你能不能帮我们考虑一下今年的可变股息水平？还有，你们是如何考虑眼前的增长机会的？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes, absolutely. So the primary -- the best use I should say of our capital is to grow the firm. And that's what we're going to try to do, especially, like we said in this unique environment. So we have this conversation every time we meet with the Board, we'll be with them again in December. And if we don't believe we can grow, of course, we give it back in either dividends or stock buybacks we -- at this juncture, I can't say whether or not we'll have a variable dividend that will ultimately be the Board's decision. I will tell you that, I want to take advantage and leverage this opportunity to grow the firm.
是的，当然。因此，我们资本的首要用途 -- 我应该说是最佳用途 -- 就是让公司发展壮大。这也是我们要努力做到的，尤其是，就像我们说过的，在这种特殊的环境下。因此，我们每次与董事会会面时都会讨论这个问题，12 月份我们还会与他们会面。当然，如果我们认为无法实现增长，我们就会通过分红或股票回购的方式来实现增长，在这个节骨眼上，我不能说我们是否会有可变股息，这最终将由董事会决定。我想告诉你们的是，我想利用这个机会来壮大公司。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Great. Thank you. 太好了谢谢
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, David. 谢谢你，大卫。
Operator 操作员
Our next question is with Gary Ransom from Dowling Partners. Gary, your line is open.
下一个问题由来自 Dowling Partners 的 Gary Ransom 提出。加里，您的电话已接通。
Gary Ransom 加里-兰森
Good morning. I wanted to go revisit the frequency question. Just looking at the actual disclosures in the Q where we have frequency down broadly 9%. That's year-over-year not pre-pandemic. And when I think about the broader environment that's actually counterintuitive to me because I'm thinking about the economy still being a little bit closed down a year ago, and frequency probably I would expect it to be increasing. And in fact when I look at available industry data it is increasing at least through six months. And so you seem to be moving in a different direction than I might have expected. And I wondered if you can add some color or possible reasons for why that might be happening?
早上好。我想再谈谈频率问题。从 Q 报告中披露的实际情况来看，我们的频率大致下降了 9%。这是同比数据，而不是大流行前的数据。当我考虑到大环境时，这对我来说其实是反直觉的，因为我认为一年前的经济仍然有点萧条，而频率可能会增加。而事实上，当我查看现有的行业数据时，至少在六个月内是在增长的。因此，你们的发展方向似乎与我的预期不同。我想知道，你是否能补充一些色彩或可能的原因，说明为什么会出现这种情况？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. And the nine was for the quarter. We're down much more in frequency if you look at the trailing 12 versus the trailing 13 to 24 down more like in the 2% range. So I can't comment on how other people look at frequency, but we are down lower if you look at the time frame I just outlined. Do you want to have anything John?
是的。九是这个季度的数字。如果你看看过去12个月与过去13到24个月相比，我们的频率下降了很多，更像是在2%的范围内。所以我不能评论其他人如何看待频率，但如果你看看我刚才概述的时间框架，我们的频率确实降低了。约翰，你还有什么要补充的吗？
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Sure. Yes. We have done a lot to move to ensure we have profitable business coming in the door. So when you do that you're going to first seek to apply underwriting efforts against the highest frequency business likely that is producing the highest loss ratios. As Pat Callahan mentioned, we've also had some challenges getting price in some very large markets that have fairly high frequency as states. So in aggregate, I get your perspective, and we've noted the same but recognize that there's a lot going on with the mix of our business, due to where we've been growing or shrinking both geographically and at the segment level that is going to drive that number as well.
当然。是的。为了确保我们有盈利的业务进来，我们做了很多工作。所以当你这样做时，你首先会寻求将核保工作应用于频率最高、可能产生最高损失比率的业务。正如Pat Callahan提到的，我们在一些非常大的市场中也遇到了一些挑战，这些州的频率相当高。因此，综合来看，我理解你的观点，我们也注意到了同样的情况，但也要认识到，由于我们在地理上以及在各个细分市场的增长或收缩，我们的业务组合有很多变化，这也将推动这个数字。
Gary Ransom 加里-兰森
All right. That's helpful. Actually, that's a fairly positive statement on what you've been able to do versus what the rest of the industry is doing. But anyway, I had another question on Snapshot too. I noticed in the Q. It looked like there was an uptick in the attach rate for Snapshot particularly in Direct. And I wondered, whether there was something you were doing. Is that part of the advertising? And maybe you just have some general comments about the acceptance of that product in the market?
好的，这很有帮助。实际上，这是一个相当积极的声明，关于你们所做的与整个行业所做的相比。但无论如何，我还有一个关于Snapshot的问题。我注意到在季度报告中，Snapshot的附加率似乎有所上升，特别是在直销方面。我想知道你们是否做了一些事情。这是广告的一部分吗？也许您对市场上该产品的接受度有一些总体评论？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah. I'll add some general comments and then Pat, if you want to add anything. We have seen an uptick in new business for Snapshot is now in the low 30% range. The biggest of tickets in direct we have about 45% of our new business using Snapshot. And of course John talked about our continuous model, which we have. I think you said, hey, I'm not sure, if which is about 11% earned premium. So we're excited about that, to continue to gather data. We have a – in the continuous model, we have a deeper flat discount for participation and then steeper either factors from maximum discount and surcharge.
是的，我会补充一些一般性的评论，然后Pat，如果你想补充什么。我们看到Snapshot的新业务有所增长，现在大约在30%的范围内。在直销中，我们有大约45%的新业务使用Snapshot。当然，John谈到了我们的持续模型，我们拥有这个模型。我想你说过，嘿，我不确定，如果这是大约11%的已赚保费。所以我们对继续收集数据感到兴奋。在持续模型中，我们为参与提供了更深层次的统一折扣，然后是从最大折扣和附加费的更陡峭的因素。
So I don't know, if that's a big factor, but we do believe people see this as something where they can control part of their insurance cost and we're pretty excited about it. Pat, do you want to add anything?
因此，我不知道这是否是一个重要因素，但我们相信人们会将其视为可以控制部分保险费用的东西，我们对此感到非常兴奋。帕特，你还有什么要补充的吗？
Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉
Yeah. I would just echo the continuous evolution of the experience that we build around Snapshot to make it easier for consumers to find understand their savings, and then enroll in the program both in the direct channel and in the two-stage distribution through agents, because obviously getting agents on board that this is a good thing for their clients is important.
是的。我只想强调我们围绕Snapshot构建的体验的持续演变，使其更易于消费者发现、理解他们的节省，并在直销渠道以及通过代理人的两阶段分销中注册该计划，因为显然让代理人加入并认识到这对他们的客户是件好事很重要。
We think part of it is process. So on the direct side, we've been continuing to improve the experience and invest there and have seen some recent wins in how we present the offer that's been helping. But we also think, there's some macroeconomic things going on, right? When there's an inflationary environment, consumers are squeezed, and they get a rate increase from their current carrier, when shopping, they want to save money, and we believe Snapshot is not only a personalized way to save money, but to get rewarded for safe driving behavior. And we think that's resonating, with a greater number of consumers, and the agents who sell our products over time.
我们认为其中一部分是流程。所以在直销方面，我们一直在持续改进体验并在那里投资，并且我们在提供报价的方式上取得了一些最近的成功，这一直在帮助我们。但我们同样认为，还有一些宏观经济因素在起作用，对吧？当存在通货膨胀的环境时，消费者会感到压力，他们从当前的保险公司的费率增长了，当他们续保时，他们想要省钱，我们相信Snapshot不仅是一种个性化的省钱方式，而且还能因安全驾驶行为而获得奖励。我们认为这与越来越多的消费者产生共鸣，以及随着时间的推移销售我们产品的代理人。
这种服务体验的提升是有价值的。
Gary Ransom 加里-兰森
Are the – is the attach rate or you said 45% for direct? Is there a similar number that you're willing to give on the agent at this point?
你说直销的附着率是 45%？在这一点上，你愿意给代理商一个类似的数字吗？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
No it's increasing somewhat especially from pre-pandemic. Like Pat said, it's a little bit more difficult to – we're really encouraging agencies that, as one of the many variables to make sure we get – we give our combined customers the best rates, if their driving behavior warrants the same.
不，与大流行前相比，它在一定程度上有所增加。就像帕特说的，这有点困难--我们真的鼓励机构，作为众多变量之一，以确保我们获得--我们给我们的组合客户最好的费率，如果他们的驾驶行为证明是相同的。
Gary Ransom 加里-兰森
All right. Thank you very much.
好的 非常感谢 All right.非常感谢
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, Gary. 谢谢你，加里。
Operator 操作员
Our next question is with Josh Shanker from Bank of America. Josh, your line is open.
下一个问题是来自美国银行的乔希-尚克（Josh Shanker）。乔希，您的电话已接通。
Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克
Yeah. Thank you. As we head into 2023, I'm no health insurance expert, but it seems to me that Medicare and a lot of the health insurers they set their rates earlier in the year. And while inflationary costs are built in right now, it may not be in the health insurance costs, which could mean we could see some severity increase on the bodily injury side next year. One I want to know if there's any truth in how I'm thinking about this? And two, given the duration of liabilities in your portfolio, what is the impact that might have on next year's results?
是的。谢谢。随着我们进入2023年，我不是医疗保险专家，但在我看来，Medicare和许多医疗保险公司在年初就设定了他们的费率。虽然通货膨胀成本现在已经计入，但可能还没有计入医疗保险成本，这可能意味着明年我们在人身伤害方面可能会看到一些严重性增加。首先，我想知道我这样想是否有道理？其次，考虑到您投资组合中的责任期限，这可能对明年的结果产生什么影响？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
What I would say from that perspective, obviously, we watch the cost that we incur for our bodily injury, but we also have inflation built into our reserving. So we build that in based on a lot of data and including what's happening in the healthcare. So those inflationary percentages are build it based on what's going on in the overall healthcare industry.
从这个角度来说，很明显，我们会关注我们的人身伤害成本，但我们也会在准备金中加入通货膨胀因素。因此，我们会根据大量的数据，包括医疗保健领域的情况，将其计算在内。因此，这些通胀百分比是根据整个医疗保健行业的发展情况确定的。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Yeah to set those inflation factors in our reserves, the product managers who are pricing at the state level will be reflecting those in their prices as well. And I think it's a valid concern. It's something that we are watching. And certainly to the extent we see medical inflation rate picking up, we will be dialing that into our prices as soon as we can.
是的，在我们的储备金中设置这些通货膨胀因素，在州一级定价的产品经理也会在他们的价格中反映这些因素。我认为这是一个合理的担忧。我们正在关注这个问题。当然，如果我们看到医疗通胀率上升，我们会尽快将其反映到我们的价格中。
Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克
And in terms of your experience with distracted driving knowledge where are we at the trends we saw got emerging from the pandemic, is the extent which people are looking at their phones when they're driving, or hard braking, do we see changes in that from where we've been over the last 12 or 18 months?
就您在分心驾驶方面的经验而言，我们在大流行病中看到的趋势是什么，是人们在开车时看手机的程度，还是急刹车的程度，我们是否看到与过去 12 或 18 个月相比发生了变化？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I can't speak specifically to distracted driving. I think we've reached those levels of ties have leveled off. They had an increase I think right win. There was less driving people. Speeds were higher, fatalities were higher. I think that's starting to level off. That might be the fact that there's more congestion because there are more people going back to work but I couldn't adequately give you specific number on that.
我无法特别针对分心驾驶发表意见。我认为我们已经达到了某种水平的稳定。他们增加了我认为是正确的胜利。驾驶的人减少了。速度更快，死亡率更高。我认为这种情况开始趋于平稳。这可能是因为交通拥堵加剧，因为越来越多的人开始返回工作岗位，但我无法给出具体的数量。
Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克
Okay. I appreciate the answers. Thank you.
好的，谢谢你的回答。谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks Josh. 谢谢乔希。
Operator 操作员
Our next question is from Andrew Kligerman from Credit Suisse. Andrew, your line is open.
下一个问题来自瑞士信贷的安德鲁-克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman）。安德鲁，您的电话已接通。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
Hey good morning. Question around policy in-force growth. I think in the quarter, it was up about 0.5%. Could you give a little color on that August and September have count that you said was at record levels? Could you put some numbers behind that and the potential for policy in-force growth in the fourth quarter?
嘿，早上好。关于有效保单增长的问题。我认为本季度增长了约 0.5%。您能否介绍一下您所说的8月和9月达到创纪录水平的保单数量？您能否给出一些数据，以及第四季度保单有效增长的潜力？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I don't know how much numbers I can put into it. I mean, obviously, PIF growth goes into both new business and renewal business. So a lot of it has to do with obviously our accruals, which we think is positive. It takes a little bit of time period in. And what I will say is our renewal growth looks very positive and we think a lot of that has to do with -- even if our insurers get an increase if they're shopping the likelihood of the leaving is lower. So we're seeing that renewal business increase as well. So we feel like we've reached the bottom from our retention perspective and that PIF growth should start to continue to improve.
我不知道我能在这个数字上投入多少。我的意思是，显然，PIF（个人保险费）增长既涉及新业务，也涉及续保业务。所以这显然与我们的应计项目有关，我们认为这是积极的。它需要一段时间。我要说的是，我们的续保增长看起来非常积极，我们认为这在很大程度上与——即使我们的保险公司获得了增长，如果他们在购物，离开的可能性也较低。所以我们也看到了续保业务的增长。所以我们感觉从我们的保留角度来看，我们已经触底，PIF增长应该开始继续改善。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
So maybe at least mid-single-digit PIF growth?
因此，PIF 可能至少有中等个位数的增长？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I never like to guess. So you know what, two weeks from today you'll have our October results and then 30 days after that November results.
我从不喜欢猜测。所以，两周后你们就会看到我们 10 月份的结果，30 天后就会看到 11 月份的结果。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
All right. I won't push anymore. And then one question, apologies for another frequency question. But as I look at the 10-Qs and tell me if my math is right, if I look at today's frequency against pre-pandemic it's nearly up, its went down nearly down 20%. Is that good math?
好吧 我不会再推了 All right.我不会再催了还有一个问题，抱歉又问了一个频率问题。但当我看 10-Q 报告时，请告诉我我的计算是否正确，如果我看今天的频率与大流行前相比，几乎是上升的，下降了近 20%。这样算对吗？
And if so, is there a reason -- and it was a great answer to the question before I get the business mix has changed a lot. But is there a reason to believe that maybe frequency could spike up very sharply and very quickly?
如果是这样，是否有理由--这是对我之前问题的一个很好的回答，我知道业务组合已经发生了很大变化。但是否有理由相信，频率可能会非常急剧、非常迅速地飙升？
I know Tricia you were saying that, you're going to look at it over the next two quarters. So one is my math right? And two, is there any reason to be concerned it could just sharply jump up at some point in the near-term?
我知道特里西娅你刚才说过，你要在接下来的两个季度里看一看。那么，第一，我的计算对吗？第二，有什么理由担心它可能在短期内的某个时候急剧上升吗？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Your math is accurate. It's so hard to say, because it can change with so many variables. I do feel like it's become a little bit more stable in the last couple of quarters, but you can see with what happens really around the globe thing happens with back and fuel prices has been change dramatically.
你的计算很准确。这很难说，因为它会随着很多变量的变化而变化。在过去几个季度里，我确实感觉它变得更稳定了一些，但你可以看到全球各地发生的事情，如燃料价格和燃油价格都发生了巨大变化。
If work from home happens, if something happens, where we're hearing about flu season or the next variance of COVID those things can happen. We really can't predict those. We do watch those literally on a daily basis. And then, we can react to those once we have them. So we do see, we believe a little bit more stability, but I'd like to see several more quarters of that at least a few.
如果发生在家工作的情况，如果发生什么事情，我们听说流感季节或 COVID 的下一个变异，这些事情都可能发生。我们真的无法预测。我们每天都在观察这些情况。一旦有了这些信息，我们就能做出反应。因此，我们确实看到了，我们相信会有更多的稳定性，但我希望至少能再看到几个季度。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
Thanks very much. 非常感谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you, Andrew. 谢谢你，安德鲁。
Operator 操作员
Our next question is from Yaron Kinar from Jefferies. Yaron, your line is open.
下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。亚伦，你的电话没挂。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you. Hi and good morning. Excuse me. My first question is on used car prices coming down a bit and at the same time we've seen body shop labor already going up. So maybe it's a two-part question here. One, are you seeing the percentage of total vehicles drop?
谢谢。您好，早上好。对不起。我的第一个问题是关于二手车价格有所下降，同时我们也看到车身修理工的劳动成本已经在上升。所以也许这是一个两部分的问题。首先，您是否看到总车辆的百分比下降了？
And two, be honest with the math of severity of used cars and severity of body shop labor. Are there other elements that we should be thinking about any like would LAE be different when you handle a total claim versus a body shop repair claim?
其次，在计算二手车的严重程度和车身修理店劳动力的严重程度时，请诚实地告诉我。还有其他我们应该考虑的因素吗，比如在处理全损索赔与车身修理索赔时，损失调整费用（LAE）会有所不同吗？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, each loss is dependent on the severity of what's happening in the car. So, again that dynamic as employees are there, so they're going to handle kind of a mix of harder total losses and some easier hit. So that sort of washes out in the denominator.
每次损失都取决于车内情况的严重程度。因此，随着员工的加入，他们会处理更严重的损失和更容易的损失。因此，这种情况会在分母中冲淡。
What I would say is, we have seen used car prices go down the mailing index. We're going to continue to watch that. And again, it takes some time because there's still a supply-demand issue.
我想说的是，我们已经看到二手车价格下跌的邮寄指数。我们会继续关注。再说一遍，这需要一些时间，因为仍然存在供需问题。
We're going to wait to see what happens with hurricane Ian. And we are seeing labor are up about 3% parts are up about 4% to 5%, the only other thing that we looked at that have been up it is pretty flat right now are rental severity.
好的，让我们继续看看飓风伊恩会发生什么。我们看到劳动力成本上升了约3%，零件成本上升了约4%到5%，我们观察到的另一个事情是租车严重性，目前看来是相当平稳的。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Okay. Thanks. And then, maybe one follow-up on the related to LAE, so I understand that it is incremental and I don't know if you can give any additional quantification beyond incremental.
好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢。然后，我想跟进一下与 LAE 有关的问题，我知道它是递增的，我不知道除了递增之外，你是否还能给出任何额外的量化。
But maybe another part of this would be in the LAE that you have for Ian, in September, did you already try and capture potentially additional LAE that you still expect to emerge kind of an got in IBNR if you will, or is that just for the month of September?
也许这个问题的另一个部分是，在您为伊恩飓风准备的LAE（损失调整费用）中，在9月份，您是否已经尝试捕捉到可能还会出现的额外LAE，就像您在IBNR中预计的那样，还是说这只是针对9月份的费用？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, it was for the month of September, because we wanted to take the $200 million retention and assess the part for indemnity the part for LAE. So 25% is sort of our first assessment and that number will likely evolve over time.
这是9月份的数字，因为我们想要拿出2亿美元的自留额，并评估赔偿部分和损失调整费用（LAE）部分。所以25%是我们的初步评估，这个数字很可能会随着时间的推移而发展变化。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Sorry, I meant for the auto piece, not the property piece.
对不起，我指的是汽车这一块，而不是房产这一块。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
For the property piece, in terms of LAE.
在财产损失方面。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
For the auto piece, the LAE. Yes.
汽车部分，LAE。是的。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Again, so the auto piece for LAE, that we don't actually separate that out. When we report we report loss plus LAE. But that, again, with the exception of some Travel and some hotels and stuff, we already have that baked in, because we already have a certain number of claims people on our books and a certain number of claims that will happen.
同样，我们并没有将汽车的 LAE 单独列出。当我们报告时，我们报告的是损失加 LAE。但是，除了一些旅游和酒店之类的项目外，我们已经将其计算在内，因为我们的账面上已经有了一定数量的理赔人员，也会发生一定数量的理赔。
And when a hurricane happens, that doesn't necessarily flex up because of that. We already have a CAT team. But if they're not handling weather-related events, they're doing other things within the claims organization.
当飓风发生时，这不一定会因为那个而增加。我们已经有一个CAT（灾难应对）团队。但如果他们不是在处理与天气相关的事件，他们就在索赔组织内做其他事情。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Okay. Thank you. 好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
The next question is from Tracy Benguigui from Barclays. Tracy, your line is open.
下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Benguigui。特雷西，您的电话已接通。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Thank you. Your auto new application growth is up 20%, mostly on the direct side. Can you touch on the quality of the new business you were seeing? I'm wondering, if your quote to bind ratio changed, as you’re seeing more submission.
谢谢。你们的汽车新申请量增长了 20%，其中大部分是直接申请。你能谈谈新业务的质量吗？我想知道，你们的报价与绑定比率是否发生了变化，因为你们看到了更多的提交。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I didn't hear the last part of your question, but the first part of the question is, we always believe that we put good business on the books, because we have so many variables that, as long as we can make our target profit margin, of course, that's different in new renewal, agency direct in each day, we always believe that the business we put on the books should be able to reach our target profit goals.
我没有听到你问题的最后一部分，但问题的第一部分是，我们始终认为，我们把好的业务记入账簿，因为我们有太多的变数，只要我们能实现我们的目标利润率，当然，这在新的续约中是不同的，在每天的代理直销中也是不同的，我们始终认为，我们记入账簿的业务应该能够达到我们的目标利润目标。
And -- so I wouldn't want to fit in the books, that’s where we have underwriting restrictions and other things. So that, we believe, is a good business. And of course, that evolves and we'll be able to tell you how that underlying is in the next coming months. I didn't hear the second part of your question.
不，我不想让它成为账本的一部分，那是我们有核保限制和其他事情的地方。因此，我们认为这是一项不错的业务。当然，随着情况的发展，我们将能够在接下来的几个月告诉您那个基本情况如何。我没有听到你问题的第二部分。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
About quote to bind ratio.
关于报价与装订比率。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. Yes. I was just referring --
好吧 是的我只是指 --
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
I was going to comment just quickly on the --
我只想简单地评论一下 --
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Go ahead. 说吧
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Go ahead. I've got your question on quote to bind, Tracey. Let me just comment on the quality just to build on Tricia's comments. So, obviously, we monitor the quality incoming business regularly and we have seen a significant spike in business coming from competitors, which is great, right?
说吧特蕾西，我有一个关于报价的问题。让我根据特里西娅的意见谈谈质量问题。很明显，我们会定期监控业务质量，我们看到来自竞争对手的业务量大幅飙升，这很好，对吗？
If competitors are raising rates, base rates and pushing customers to shop, we believe the power of our segmentation helps us select the right risks at the right rate for a lifetime profitability. So we look very closely at that quality of the business. We're always paranoid that we're getting business since someone else is shedding, but we're very comfortable with what we're writing. And as Tricia mentioned, we want to grow with the right business and we feel like we have that in place right now.
如果竞争对手提高费率，基础费率，并促使客户去比较购物，我们相信我们的细分市场的力量可以帮助我们以正确的费率为终身盈利选择合适的风险。所以我们非常仔细地审视业务的质量。我们总是担心自己得到业务是因为其他人在减少业务，但我们对自己正在写的业务感到非常舒服。正如特里西亚提到的，我们希望与正确的业务一起增长，我们觉得我们现在已经有了这个。
长期的低价策略，想起哪里看到的一句话，好像是张一鸣的材料中，说是雷军的名言：走自己的路，让别人无路可走，对这样的搞法始终有些怀疑。
As far as your quote-to-bind ratio question, there's a lot of moving parts in there, because when you have massive increases in shopping, you have different motivation levels of customers and conversion rate is, obviously, dependent on the mix of business that's shopping, how competitive our pricing is relative to where they're shopping from, because they're always comparing for a prior insurance customer what they're paying today versus what they could pay tomorrow.
关于您的询价到承保比率问题，其中有很多变动的部分，因为当您有大规模的购物增加时，您会有不同的客户动机水平，转化率显然取决于正在购物的业务组合，以及我们的价格相对于他们购物的地方的竞争力，因为他们总是在比较之前的保险客户今天支付的费用与他们明天可能支付的费用。
And that's where we think the power of segmentation, particularly in the agency channel, where comparative raters create effectively a transparency of rates across different carriers and segmentation and pricing accuracy enables us to grow in the right places, while avoiding adverse selection that potentially goes to our competitors.
这就是我们认为细分的力量所在，特别是在代理渠道，比较评级器有效地建立了不同承运商之间的费率透明度，细分和定价的准确性使我们能够在正确的地方实现增长，同时避免可能流向竞争对手的逆向选择。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. But directionally has it changed for you?
好吧，但在方向上你有改变吗？
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Directionally, conversion more recently is slightly down as we see prospect -- record prospect growth which is a normal dynamic I see more shoppers some are less motivated aggregate conversion does slide a little.
从方向上看，最近的转换率略有下降，因为我们看到潜在客户 -- 创纪录的潜在客户增长，这是一个正常的动态，我看到更多的购物者，有些人的积极性不高，总的转换率确实有点下滑。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. And then on a cohort basis, how many policy terms do you think it'll take for that new business to meet your combined ratio target?
好的。然后，在群组的基础上，你认为新业务需要多少个保单期才能达到你的综合比率目标？
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
So on a cohort basis obviously we look at a lifetime basis and it all depends on how quickly we grow right? We've gotten the question for, I think decades about the growth tax and how we think about new versus renewal. And I think as Tricia mentioned we will spend where we can be efficient in acquiring customers and acquire them at what we believe a new business combined ratio is that we'll produce our lifetime profit targets.
显然，我们从群体的角度来看是基于终身价值的，而这都取决于我们增长的速度，对吧？几十年来，我们一直被问到关于增长税的问题，以及我们如何看待新业务与续保业务。正如特里西亚提到的，我们会在能够高效获取客户的地方进行投资，并以我们相信能够实现我们终身利润目标的新业务综合比率来获取他们。
So with that construct as we think about it, if we grow quickly there will be potentially pressure on our calendar year combined ratio and we manage our expenses in order to ensure that we deliver on your expectations.
因此，在我们考虑这个问题时，如果我们快速增长，就会对我们的历年综合比率造成潜在压力。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. And can you comment how many policy terms did you take for that new bit of tax to not be please?
好的。您能否评论一下，对于新的税收部分，您需要多少个保单期限才能不感到满意？
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Maybe I can help out. We have different policy life expectancy by different segment of business. So, what we call a SAM and inconsistently insured customers they're not going to stick around long. So, we need to make our 96 in a very short period of time. Robinsons going stick a lot longer. So, we have a lot more time to make up the combined ratio over 100 perhaps on new business for a Robinson. So, it depends upon the segment of business that we're talking about. Lately we've been growing less on the Sam side, more on the Robinson side. So if you think about that dynamic hopefully that's helpful to your question.
也许我可以帮忙。我们根据不同业务领域的不同政策寿命预期。所以，我们所说的SAM和不一致的保险客户不会停留太久。因此，我们需要在很短的时间内实现96的目标。Robinsons可能会持续更长时间。所以，我们有更多的时间来弥补新业务可能超过100的综合比率。所以，这取决于我们正在讨论的业务领域。最近，我们在Sam方面的增长较少，在Robinson方面的增长较多。所以，如果你考虑这种动态，希望这对你的问题有所帮助。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
It is. Thank you. 就是这样。谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question shall be from Meyer Shields from KBW. Meyer, your line is open.
下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。迈耶，您的电话已接通。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Great. Thank you. Good morning, John mentioned that planned to price mostly to the Snapshot curve. And you see what that means maybe slightly excess profits and faster growth compared to what we saw maybe heading into COVID. And I think about that directionally correctly?
很好，谢谢。早上好，约翰提到计划主要根据Snapshot曲线来定价。您认为这意味着可能略微超出利润，并且比我们进入COVID时期所看到的更快增长。我这样理解方向上是正确的吗？
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
I would say no. So when we say not specifically to the curve, we would balance that on the end of the curve if you will. So early on with Snapshot when it was new for consumers, we weren't pricing to the maximum surcharge. We went pricing to the maximum discount. In fact, we didn't surcharge off, when we first brought out the model. Now that consumers understand it, are accepting of it, we can price to both ends of those spectrum. So this doesn't change at all the aggregate 96 target we have for all segments of our business inclusive of Snapshot.
不，当我们说不仅仅针对曲线时，我们会在曲线的末端进行平衡。所以，早在Snapshot对消费者来说还比较新的时候，我们并没有按最大附加费来定价。我们是按最大折扣来定价的。实际上，当我们第一次推出这个模型时，我们并没有收取附加费。现在消费者理解并接受了它，我们可以对这两个极端进行定价。所以这并不改变我们对包括Snapshot在内的所有业务领域的综合96目标。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Okay. Great. Thanks for the clarification. And I guess the second issue, you mentioned early in the call, not the first time that resis generally reverse to taking significant rate increases. Can you talk to the opportunity to sort of embed inflationary sensitive components into the exposure base that you don't have the same problem if something else pricing?
好的，谢谢您的澄清。我猜第二个问题是，您在电话会议一开始就提到，这不是第一次，resis通常不会采取显著的费率增长。您能谈谈将通货膨胀敏感的组成部分嵌入到暴露基数中的机会吗，这样如果其他定价方式出现问题，您就不会遇到同样的问题？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah. I mean we tried to do that definitely in our reserving but in our pricing, we look at that and prospectively put that into our pricing model. But this has been sort of an extraordinary few years with the inflationary, especially in our industry with us in new car prices and social inflation. So we do believe those big increases are past us. And of course that could be a well we have to have a bigger increase based on something else other than that, but we feel good about that. Do you want to add anything?
是的。我的意思是我们在我们的储备金计算中肯定尝试过这样做，在我们的定价中，我们向前看并将这一点纳入我们的定价模型。但这是几年来非凡的时期，特别是在我们的行业中，新车价格上涨和社会通货膨胀。所以我们相信这些大幅增长已经过去了。当然，这可能是我们基于除此以外的原因需要有更大的增长，但我们对此感到满意。你还有什么要补充的吗？
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Sure. We do have what we call monthly rating factors. So we have some escalators in our auto pricing. They are not reflective of an inflationary environment in which we have seen recently. So you're doing this prospectively and it requires regulatory approval. So we have call modest factors that inflate prices in many states not all on a monthly basis. On the property side, we also have the value of the home that we are reflecting that renewal which lately for sure has led to higher renewal prices outside of any increases we've taken. Does that helpful with your question?
当然。我们确实有所谓的月度评级因素。所以我们的汽车定价中有一些自动升级机制。它们并不反映我们最近看到的通货膨胀环境。所以你是在前瞻性地这样做，这需要监管机构的批准。我们在许多州都有一些适度的因素，这些因素在一个月的基础上提高了价格，但不是所有州都这样。在财产方面，我们也反映了房屋的价值，这在续保时体现出来，最近肯定导致了更高的续保价格，除了我们已经采取的任何增长措施。这对您的问题有帮助吗？
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
It does. I really -- I guess I would ask it more intelligently would that be about the potential for embedding the same sort of things that provide more premium automatically in property getting some of those in auto?
您的问题是否关于在汽车保险中嵌入类似能够自动提供更多保费的因素，就像在财产保险中那样？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I think we are with the monthly rating factors as well as the incremental increases and then the dwelling increases that John talked about on the property side.
我认为，我们在财产方面采用了月度评级系数和增量，以及约翰谈到的住宅增量。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Yeah, the piece we're going to ensure, we're more responsive on the auto frequency side is that continuous monitoring. So the more we drive people to adopt snapshot or UBI rating and a continuous rating model, we can adapt more quickly to things that change in how they drive or how much they drive over time. So that provides a little more responsive than we have in today's model.
是的，我们要确保的一点是，在汽车频率方面更加响应灵敏的是持续监测。因此，我们越是推动人们采用Snapshot或UBI（按使用量计费）评级和持续评级模型，我们就能更快地适应他们驾驶方式或驾驶时间的变化。这比我们目前的模型提供了更多的响应性。
这个说法过于自信了，有时候通胀的变化幅度更大。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Okay. Perfect. Thank you so much.
好的好极了 Perfect.非常感谢 Thank you so much.
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁
We exhausted our scheduled time. So that concludes our event. Austin, I will hand the call back over to you for the closing sections.
我们用完了预定的时间。我们的活动到此结束。奥斯汀，我将把电话交还给你，请你做总结发言。
Operator 操作员
That concludes the Progressive Corporation's third quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.
Progressive 公司第三季度投资者活动到此结束。明年，我们将在 Progressive 网站的 "投资者关系 "栏目中提供有关此次活动的重播信息。您现在可以断开连接。
Article Comments Update
热门标签
Related Articles
2024-08-06 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call August 6, 2024 9:30 AM ET 进步公司（纽约证券交易所代码：PGR）2024 年第二季度财报电话会议 2024 年 8 月 6 日 上午 9:30（东部时间） Company Participants 公司参与者 Doug Constantine - Director, Investor Relations 道格·康斯坦丁 - ...2022-05-03 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call May 3, 2022 9:30 AM ET Progressive Corporation（纽约证券交易所：PGR）2022 年第一季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2022 年 5 月 3 日上午 9:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Tricia Griffith – President and Chief ...2023-08-02 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call August 2, 2023 9:30 AM ET Progressive Corporation（纽约证券交易所：PGR）2023 年第二季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 8 月 2 日上午 9:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Douglas Constantine - Director, IR Douglas ...2024-11-05 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call November 5, 2024 9:30 AM ET The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) 2024 年第三季度收益电话会议 2024 年 11 月 5 日 上午 9:30 ET Company Participants 公司参与者 Doug Constantine - Director, Investor ...2023-05-03 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call May 3, 2023 9:30 AM ET Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) 2023 年第一季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 5 月 3 日上午 9:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Douglas Constantine - Director, IR Douglas Constantine - 投资关系总监 ...