2023-08-02 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call August 2, 2023 9:30 AM ET

Progressive Corporation（纽约证券交易所：PGR）2023 年第二季度收益电话会议美国东部时间 2023 年 8 月 2 日上午 9:30

Company Participants 公司参与者

Douglas Constantine - Director, IR

Douglas Constantine - 投资关系总监

Susan Griffith - President, CEO & Director

苏珊-格里菲斯 - 总裁、首席执行官兼董事

Gary Traicoff - Corporate Actuary

Gary Traicoff - 公司精算师

Jim Curtis - Personal Lines Controller

吉姆-柯蒂斯--个人业务主管

Conference Call Participants

电话会议与会者

Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities

Elyse Greenspan - 富国证券

Michael Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets

Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Tracy Benguigui - Barclays Bank

Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行

Joshua Shanker - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Joshua Shanker - 美银美林

Yaron Kinar - Jefferies

David Motemaden - Evercore ISI

Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research

Ryan Tunis - 自主研究

Charles Peters - Raymond James & Associates

Taylor Scott - Goldman Sachs Group

Taylor Scott - 高盛集团

Douglas Constantine 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's Second Quarter Investor Event. I am Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I'll be the moderator for today's event. The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website.

早上好，感谢各位参加今天的 Progressive 第二季度投资者活动。我是投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine，我将主持今天的活动。除了在公司网站上发布的 10-K 表年报、10-Q 表季报和致股东信中提供的内容外，公司不会对业绩发表详细评论。

This quarter includes a presentation on a specific portion of our business followed by a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. The introductory comments by our CEO and the presentation were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 90 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with leaders featured in our recorded remarks as well as other members of our management team.

这一季度的活动包括介绍我们业务的某一部分，然后与我们的领导团队成员进行问答。首席执行官的开场白和演讲之前已经录制。之前录制的发言结束后，我们将利用 90 分钟的剩余时间与录制发言中的领导以及管理团队的其他成员进行现场问答。

As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event.

一如既往，本次活动的讨论可能包括前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，存在许多风险和不确定性，可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的内容存在实质性差异。

Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, as supplemented by our 10-Q reports for the first and second quarters of 2023, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face.

有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度报告，以及我们 2023 年第一季度和第二季度的 10-Q 报告，您可以在其中找到有关影响我们业务的风险因素的讨论、与前瞻性声明相关的安全港声明以及有关我们面临的挑战的其他讨论。

These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com. To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?

您可以通过我们网站 investors.progressive.com 上的 "投资者关系 "栏目查阅这些文件。首先，我很高兴地向大家介绍我们的首席执行官特里西娅-格里菲斯（Tricia Griffith）。特里西娅？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. I usually begin these calls by extolling the commitment of Progressive's people and expressing my pride in the results they deliver, and this quarter will be no different. In the face of extraordinary pressure on the industry, our people continue to take the actions necessary to succeed in this difficult environment.

早上好，感谢您参加我们今天的会议。在电话会议开始时，我通常会赞扬 Progressive 员工的奉献精神，并对他们取得的业绩表示自豪，本季度也不例外。面对行业面临的巨大压力，我们的员工继续采取必要的行动，在这个艰难的环境中取得成功。

While our results through the first half of 2023 fell well short of our 96 combined ratio target. I continue to believe in our people and our strategy. I believe we have assembled a progressive team of nearly 59,000 employees that's best in class. I have no doubt that we are continuing to lay the groundwork to ensure that our best days are ahead of us. We continue to manage to this calendar year target, maintaining the discipline that has allowed us to grow in the past with better profitability than the industry.

尽管我们在 2023 年上半年的业绩远未达到 96 的综合比率目标。我仍然相信我们的员工和我们的战略。我相信，我们已经组建了一支由近 59,000 名员工组成的一流团队。毫无疑问，我们正在继续奠定基础，以确保我们的好日子还在后头。我们将继续按照本日历年的目标进行管理，保持我们过去的增长纪律，实现比同行业更好的盈利能力。

At the same time, we will be pragmatic in our approach to growth and remain cognizant of long-term value, which we continue to believe has served well by balancing growth and profitability. We spent much of the first quarter call talking about actions we would be taking to address our calendar year profitability pressure and those actions continue. In quarter 2, we took 7 points in personal auto, which puts our year-to-date rate take at just over 11%, and assuming regulatory approval, we plan to take approximately 6 additional points during the remainder of the year as we adjust rates to match loss trend.

同时，我们在增长的方法上将保持务实，并始终意识到长期价值，我们继续相信通过平衡增长和盈利能力已经很好地服务了我们。我们在第一季度的电话会议中花了很多时间讨论我们将采取的行动来解决我们的日历年盈利压力，这些行动还在继续。在第二季度，我们在个人汽车保险中增加了7个百分点，这使我们的年初至今费率增长略高于11%，并且假设获得监管批准，我们计划在今年余下的时间里再增加大约6个百分点，因为我们调整费率以匹配损失趋势。

During last quarter's call, we also said that we would reduce our media spend, resulting in our quarter 2 direct expense ratio being amongst the lowest in recent history. These actions have had the expected effect on growth with new app growth slower in the second quarter as compared to the first and PIF growth, while still robust, slowing from highs we saw in prior months. Calendar year profitability continues to be a challenge. So with the calendar year 96 goal in mind, we will continue to evaluate the rate and non-rate actions we may need to take.

在上个季度的电话会议中，我们还表示我们将减少媒体支出，导致我们第二季度的直接费用比率是近年来最低的之一。这些行动对增长产生了预期的影响，与第一季度相比，第二季度的新应用增长较慢，PIF增长虽然仍然强劲，但与之前几个月看到的高点相比有所放缓。日历年盈利能力仍然是一个挑战。因此，考虑到日历年96的目标，我们将继续评估我们可能需要采取的费率和非费率措施。

Catastrophe losses were a significant part of our profitability pressures. To date, 2023 has been a significant catastrophic year with some estimates suggesting that U.S. insurer losses have already surpassed $25 billion this year. The events this year had been broadly felt with 44 states affected by 43 events. At the company level, these events have added 4.5 points to our combined ratio year-to-date, which is 1.7 points higher than the impact catastrophe events had on our combined ratio for the first half of 2022.

巨灾损失是我们盈利压力的重要组成部分。迄今为止，2023 年是一个重要的灾难年，据估计，美国保险公司今年的损失已超过 250 亿美元。今年发生的事件影响广泛，44 个州受到 43 起事件的影响。在公司层面，这些事件使我们今年迄今为止的综合比率增加了 4.5 个百分点，比 2022 年上半年巨灾事件对我们综合比率的影响高出 1.7 个百分点。

Our property business has been most affected by catastrophes, adding almost 46 points to the property loss ratio so far this year, which is about 16 points more when compared to this time in 2022. Historically, we have been among the best in the industry in reserve accuracy with reserve changes contributing little to our calendar year combined ratio. We've advanced the science of reserving, an employee team of highly experienced individuals to support our goal of being as accurate as possible with our reserves.

我们的财产险业务受巨灾影响最大，今年到目前为止，财产险损失率增加了近 46 个百分点，与 2022 年同期相比增加了约 16 个百分点。从历史上看，我们的准备金准确性在行业中一直名列前茅，准备金变动对我们的历年综合比率影响甚微。我们已经推进了准备金的科学化，一支由经验丰富的员工组成的团队支持我们实现尽可能准确的准备金目标。

Accurate reserves help us to price more accurately and give us the confidence to grow as fast as we have over the last decade. Having said that, the difficult environment of 2023 has presented challenges for our reserving practices. Through the end of the second quarter, prior year adverse development has contributed 4 points to our combined ratio and current accident year actuarial adjustments have contributed another 1.5 points. The majority of personal lines adverse development can be placed into 2 categories: Florida and fixing vehicle coverages. Florida's prior year adverse development accounts for just over 40% of the 4 points of prior year development. While we continue to be optimistic that March's new legislation will result in lower loss costs over time, the short-term effect has been a significant increase in attorney representation largely in medical coverages.

准确的准备金有助于我们更准确地定价，并让我们有信心在过去十年中快速增长。话虽如此，2023年的艰难环境为我们的储备实践带来了挑战。截至第二季度末，上年不利发展使我们的综合比率增加了4个百分点，当前事故年度的精算调整又增加了1.5个百分点。个人线路不利发展主要可以归入两类：佛罗里达和修正车辆保险覆盖范围。佛罗里达上年不利发展占上年发展4个百分点的略高于40%。虽然我们继续乐观地认为，3月份的新立法将随着时间的推移导致更低的损失成本，但短期效果是律师代表的显著增加，主要是在医疗覆盖方面。

Our data has matured each month since the bill passed, which has allowed us to continue to fine-tune reserving in the face of changes to Florida's ultimate loss costs. In fixing vehicle coverages, unforeseen severity trends deepening on previously closed claims continues to be the major driver of prior year adverse development countrywide. The contributors to the steeper trends come from a variety of sources, including longer vehicle repair times, longer rental times, higher parts prices and labor rates and changes in subrogation trends. Fixing vehicle coverages are short-tailed, which explains why over 80% of the total year-to-date prior-year development is from the 2022 accident year.

我们的数据显示，自从法案通过以来，每个月都在成熟，这使我们能够在佛罗里达州最终损失成本发生变化的情况下继续微调准备金。在修正车辆保险覆盖方面，之前已关闭的索赔上出现的未预见的严重趋势持续加剧，继续是全国上一年度不利发展的主要驱动因素。导致更陡峭趋势的因素来自多种来源，包括更长的车辆维修时间、更长的租赁时间、更高的零件价格和劳动率以及代位求偿趋势的变化。修正车辆保险覆盖是短期的，这解释了为什么超过80%的年初至今的上一年度发展来自2022年的事故年度。

In fact, excluding Florida, accident years prior to 2022 have developed favorably. Our current year actuarial adjustments are primarily due to fixing vehicle coverages. Since fixing vehicle coverages are short-tailed, most of the claims that are affected by emerging trends have happened in the recent past. As we have moved deeper into the year, the new steeper trends in fixing vehicle coverages have increasingly affected claims that occurred in the current accident year.

实际上，如果不包括佛罗里达州，2022年之前的事故年份已经显示出有利的发展。我们当前年度的精算调整主要是由于修正车辆保险覆盖。由于修正车辆保险覆盖是短期的，大多数受新趋势影响的索赔都发生在最近的过去。随着我们深入到这一年，修正车辆保险覆盖中更陡峭的新趋势越来越影响当前事故年度发生的索赔。

Florida litigation has been a relatively small part of current year actuarial adjustments since the increase in attorney representation rates largely affected claims that occurred before March of 2023. We continue to monitor loss trends across all states and coverages and will adjust if necessary to ensure we're always adequately reserved. While both reserving and pricing have been a challenge this year, I have great confidence in the teams and our strategies, which have delivered results better than the industry for a very long time. To showcase these skill sets, this morning, we have 2 senior leaders to speak to these 2 topics for our presentation. First, Gary Traicoff, our Corporate Actuary business leader and Head of our Reserving Group, will discuss reserving practice at Progressive and how we endeavor to accurately set and adjust reserves.

佛罗里达州的诉讼在本年度精算调整中所占比例相对较小，因为律师代理费率的提高主要影响到 2023 年 3 月之前发生的索赔。我们将继续监控各州和各险种的损失趋势，并在必要时进行调整，以确保我们始终保持充足的准备金。虽然今年的准备金和定价都是一个挑战，但我对我们的团队和战略充满信心，我们的业绩长期以来都优于行业水平。为了展示这些技能，今天上午，我们邀请了两位资深领导就这两个主题发表演讲。首先，我们的企业精算师业务领导人兼准备金小组负责人 Gary Traicoff 将讨论 Progressive 的准备金实践，以及我们如何努力准确设定和调整准备金。

Gary is a 28-year progressive veteran and has led our reserving group for almost 11 of those years. After Gary, Jim Curtis, our Personal Lines Controller, will discuss cohort pricing. Cohort pricing is our term for managing to both our calendar year and lifetime 96 target when new business and renewal business have different expense and loss characteristics. Jim has been with Progressive for 28 years and in his current role for 4.

Gary 是一位拥有28年Progressive公司经验的老兵，并且在其中近11年的时间里领导了我们的储备团队。在Gary之后，我们的个人保险控制员Jim Curtis将讨论同期定价。同期定价是我们用于管理日历年和终身96目标的术语，当新业务和续保业务具有不同的费用和损失特征时。Jim已经在Progressive工作了28年，并且在他目前的职位上工作了4年。

Again, thank you for joining us this morning. I will now pass you to Gary. Gary?

再次感谢您参加今天上午的会议。现在请加里发言。加里？

Gary Traicoff 加里-崔可夫

Thank you, Tricia, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to talk to you today about loss reserving at Progressive. I will first cover some key definitions and metrics in our general process, then walk through an example on how our overall reserve levels are determined. And finally, walk through an example of the reserving life cycle of an individual claim and how it would flow through the actuarial categories of the earnings release.

谢谢你，Tricia，大家早上好。我很高兴今天能和大家谈谈 Progressive 的损失准备金。我将首先介绍我们一般流程中的一些关键定义和指标，然后举例说明我们的总体准备金水平是如何确定的。最后，我将举例说明单个索赔的准备金生命周期，以及如何在盈利发布的精算类别中流动。

Let's start off with the size of our loss and loss adjustment expense or LAE reserves. The columns represent our carried reserve balance at the end of each calendar year from 2013 through 2022 and at June 30, 2023, for the rightmost column. On the left side of the graph, we can see that in 2013, Progressive had about $8.5 billion in reserves on a gross of reinsurance basis at year-end 2013. This would be the sum of the orange and blue sections within the bar with our growth as a company, reserves before reinsurance as of June 30, 2023, is now almost $33 billion and almost 4x greater than what it was in 2013, while our premium growth was a little less than 3x greater over the same time period.

让我们从我们的损失和损失调整费用（LAE）准备金的规模开始。列代表了从2013年到2022年每年末我们所持有的准备金余额，以及最右边的列代表了2023年6月30日的数据。在图表的左侧，我们可以看到在2013年，Progressive在2013年末的再保险基础上大约有85亿美元的准备金。这是条形图中橙色和蓝色部分的总和。随着我们公司的成长，截至2023年6月30日，我们的准备金在再保险前已接近330亿美元，几乎是2013年的4倍，而同期我们的保费增长略低于3倍。

Much of this difference in reserves outpacing premium growth relates to our growth in longer-tailed products and commercial lines over this period. This means that we believe for all accidents that have occurred through June 30, 2023, our ultimate future liabilities will be almost $33 billion. The orange section of the bars represents how much of our reserves are ceded for reinsurance. Some examples of this include state-regulated plans, such as Michigan Catastrophic Claims Association and the Florida Hurricane Cat Fund and private reinsurers. Our ceded reserves now make up about 16% of our gross reserves versus just over 12% in 2013. Much of this increase in the higher proportion of ceded reserves relates to newer products that have been added over time, including property and protective, which have more reinsurance needs than our historical products. The blue section of the columns represents how much of our reserves are retained after reinsurance, almost $28 billion as of June 30, 2023.

这部分差异，即准备金增长超过保费增长，主要与我们在这段时间内长期责任产品和商业保险线的增长有关。这意味着我们相信，对于截至2023年6月30日发生的所有事故，我们最终的未来负债将接近330亿美元。条形图中的橙色部分代表了我们为再保险而放弃的准备金有多少。这方面的一些例子包括州监管计划，如密歇根灾难性索赔协会和佛罗里达飓风灾难基金以及私人再保险公司。我们现在放弃的准备金约占我们总准备金的16%，而在2013年仅略高于12%。放弃准备金比例增加的很大一部分与随着时间增加的新产品有关，包括财产和保护性产品，这些产品比我们历史上的产品有更大的再保险需求。柱状图的蓝色部分代表了再保险后保留的准备金有多少，截至2023年6月30日，几乎为280亿美元。

Next, let's look at some metrics on how our reserves are distributed. The chart on the left shows that 67% of our net reserves are in loss case, 17% loss IBNR and the remainder under LAE. Any open claim will be assigned a case reserve that may be set by a claims adjuster or an actuarially derived estimate set by the actuarial team. We will discuss this in more detail in a future slide. IBNR, which stands for incurred but not reported, makes up about 17% of our net reserves. IBNR may have different meanings across companies.

接下来，我们来看看我们的准备金是如何分配的一些指标。左侧的图表显示，我们67%的净准备金用于已决赔款，17%用于未决赔款(IBNR)，其余的归在损失调整费用(LAE)下。任何未结的索赔都会被分配一个案件准备金，这可能由索赔理算员设定，或者由精算团队根据精算估算得出。我们将在未来的幻灯片中更详细地讨论这一点。IBNR代表已发生但未报告，约占我们净准备金的17%。IBNR在不同公司可能有不同的含义。

For most of Progressive's products, one can think of IBNR as the future liabilities to cover claims that have already happened and are currently not recorded as open case reserves. This would include late reports, reopens and salvage and subrogation recoveries. Anticipated salvage and subrogation recoveries can be thought of as a contra reserve and is a reduction to future liabilities. For most of our products, IBNR does not cover any anticipated development in case reserves. This is because since our case reserves are a combination of adjuster estimates and actuarially set case reserves for the majority of our products, our IBNR reserve, does not cover expected case development.

对于Progressive的大多数产品，可以将IBNR视为已经发生但目前未记录为开放案件准备金的索赔的未来负债。这将包括延迟报告、重新开放的索赔、残值和代位追偿回收。预期的残值和代位追偿回收可以被视为抵消准备金，是对未来负债的减少。对于我们的大多数产品，IBNR不包括对案件准备金的任何预期发展。这是因为由于我们的案件准备金是理算师估计和精算设定的案件准备金的组合，对于我们的大多数产品，我们的IBNR准备金不包括预期的案件发展。

LAE reserves make up the remaining 16% and typically cover the anticipated expenses needed to settle claims that have already happened, such as defense counsel costs and claims adjuster salaries. The middle chart shows the distribution of our reserves by product. As expected, reserves will index more to longer-tailed products with higher limits relative to premium size. Thus, our Commercial Lines business makes up almost 1/3 of our total reserves, but a smaller proportion of premium. The graph on the right shows that in personal auto, 83% of our reserves are set to cover injury and medical costs and 17% to cover the cost of fixed vehicles. Again, this is due to the longer-tail nature and higher severity costs to injury and medical coverages versus fixing vehicle coverages and reserves are over-indexed to injury and medical relative to premium.

LAE准备金占剩余的16%，通常涵盖了已经发生的索赔的预期费用，如辩护律师费用和索赔理算员工资。中间的图表显示了我们按产品分配的准备金。正如预期，准备金会更多地指向长期责任产品，这些产品的限额相对于保费规模更高。因此，我们的商业保险业务几乎占我们总准备金的1/3，但在保费中所占比例较小。右侧的图表显示，在个人汽车保险中，83%的准备金用于支付伤害和医疗费用，17%用于支付修理车辆的费用。同样，这是由于与修理车辆保险相比，伤害和医疗费用的长期责任性质和更高的严重性成本，准备金相对于保费过度指向伤害和医疗费用。

一旦出现车祸都是人有问题而不是车有问题，自动驾驶有可能改变现状，巴菲特不相信自动驾驶，也不相信能很快改变现状，PGR对这个问题更积极，认为20/30年总会实现的。

In addition, fixing vehicle coverages have a higher proportion of contra-reserves from salvage and subrogation compared to injury and medical. One additional point. This data is as of year-end 2022 and is on a net of reinsurance basis. While the previous slide gave a high-level overview of the distribution of our reserve mix by various parts, we review the reserves at a much more granular level. We typically review reserves by some combination of product, geographic areas such as group of states, individual states and even down to a region or subset within a state. Further breakouts typically include individual line coverages such as bodily injury, uninsured motor bodily injury and property damage and even by limit. To determine these breakouts, we weigh the credibility of the data, homogeneity in the data and additional value of segmenting the data at a finer level.

此外，与伤害和医疗费用相比，修理车辆保险的残值和代位追偿准备金比例更高。另外一点，这些数据是截至2022年底的，并且是净再保险基础之上的。虽然之前的幻灯片提供了我们各种部分准备金混合的高层次概览，但我们以更细粒度的水平审查准备金。我们通常通过产品、地理区域（如州群、单独的州）的某种组合来审查准备金，甚至细化到州内的某个地区或子集。进一步的细分通常包括人身伤害、无保险机动车人身伤害和财产损害等各个保险项目的单独线路，甚至按限额细分。为了确定这些细分，我们权衡了数据的可信度、数据的同质性以及在更细的层面上细分数据的附加价值。

For example, in personal auto bodily injury, almost all states are reviewed separately with the majority of states reviewed quarterly. State-level data is credible and many states have different development patterns, which warrant the data to be reviewed separately. In personal auto collision, while state-level data is credible, many states exhibit similar data patterns and several clusters of states are reviewed together. About 25% to 30% of our reserves are reviewed at this in-depth level monthly and about 85% of our reserves quarterly.

例如，在个人汽车人身伤害方面，几乎所有州都单独进行了审查，其中大部分州每季度审查一次。州一级的数据是可信的，而且许多州有不同的发展模式，这需要数据单独审查。在个人汽车碰撞方面，虽然州一级的数据是可信的，但许多州显示出类似的数据模式，几个州群一起审查。大约25%到30%的我们的准备金每月在这个深入的层次上进行审查，大约85%的准备金每季度审查一次。

About 700 reviews, which is some combination of product, state, line, et cetera, are reviewed over the course of the year. By reviewing reserves at this detailed level, we are able to adjust reserves more accurately at a granular level, which helps our pricing teams better match price to risk. We also have a robust roll-forward process that we will discuss later on, which allows up to 100% of the reserves to be adjusted monthly. The roll-forward process allows us the time to do a deep analysis on a portion of the reserves monthly while still feeling comfortable that all of our reserves are being updated monthly. Here is an example of how an in-depth review schedule will look over 3 months. In the first month of the quarter, 57 reserve reviews were completed.

每年大约有700次审查，这是产品、州、线路等某种组合。通过在这个详细层次上审查准备金，我们能够更准确地在细粒度层次上调整准备金，这有助于我们的定价团队更好地将价格与风险相匹配。我们还有一个健全的滚动过程，我们将在后面讨论，它允许每月最多100%的准备金进行调整。滚动过程允许我们每月对部分准备金进行深入分析，同时仍然确信我们所有的准备金都在每月更新。这里有一个例子，展示了3个月内深入审查计划的外观。在季度的第一个月，完成了57次准备金审查。

Each reserve review is either a loss or LAE review, which is further broken down between defense cost containment or DCC and adjusting and other expenses or A&O. Some combination of products, such as personal auto, CL or one of our core commercial auto products or TNC, which represents transportation network companies, line coverages such as bodily injury and some combination of state is reviewed. These 57 reviews would make up about 25% to 30% of our total reserves. In the following month, 60 reviews were completed. Again, there is some combination of type, product, coverage and state, but all 60 reviews are independent of reviews completed during the first month and represent another 25% to 30% of our total reserves.

每次准备金审查要么是损失审查，要么是损失调整费用(LAE)审查，这进一步细分为辩护成本控制(DCC)和调整及其他费用(A&O)。一些产品组合，如个人汽车、商业保险(CL)或我们的核心商业汽车产品之一或交通网络公司(TNC)，代表运输网络公司，线路保险如人身伤害，以及某些州的组合将被审查。这57次审查将占我们总准备金的25%至30%。在接下来的一个月，完成了60次审查。同样，存在类型、产品、保险和州的一些组合，但所有60次审查都是独立于第一个月完成的审查，并且代表我们总准备金的另外25%至30%。

Finally, the third month of the quarter had 68 reviews completed, which are all different from any reviews completed during the previous 2 months and represent an additional 25% to 30% of the total reserves. Over the course of the quarter, about 85% of the reserves were reviewed. Typically, between 50 to 70 reviews are completed per month. Now let's talk about how the overall reserve level is determined. We use several different methods. One of the methods that we use is called the accident period chain ladder method in a standard industry practice.

季度的第三个月完成了68次审查，这些审查与前两个月完成的任何审查都不同，并且代表了总准备金的另外25%到30%。在季度的过程中，大约85%的准备金都经过了审查。通常，每个月完成50到70次审查。现在让我们谈谈整体准备金水平是如何确定的。我们使用几种不同的方法。我们使用的一种方法是称为事故周期链梯法，这是标准的行业实践。

And the example above, each row represents a 6-month period when the accident occurred and each column represents how much in paid losses had been paid out for those accidents at certain time periods after the accident. For example, the top row represents all accidents that occurred from July 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021. The $100 in Column 1 means that the $100 was paid out as of December 31, 2021 for those accidents. Moving to the right of the same row. Column 2 of $120 means that for accidents that occurred during the last 6 months of 2021, as of June 2022, cumulatively that $120 had been paid out. Thus, an additional $20 was paid out during the first half of 2022. The increase of $20 could be due to payments on known claims, late reports or reopen activity. The increase of 20% from $100 to $120 is shown in the loss development factors section in the December 2021 row and column 1.

上述示例中，每一行代表事故发生时的6个月时段，每一列代表在事故发生后特定时间段内已支付的损失金额。例如，最上面的一行代表从2021年7月1日到2021年12月31日发生的所有事故。第一列中的100美元意味着，截至2021年12月31日，这些事故已经支付了100美元。在同一行向右移动，第二列的120美元意味着，对于2021年下半年发生的事故，截至2022年6月，累积支付了120美元。因此，在2022年上半年又支付了额外的20美元。这20美元的增加可能是由于已知索赔的支付、延迟报告或重新开放活动。从100美元增加到120美元的20%增加在损失发展因子部分显示，在2021年12月的行和第一列。

Similarly, the loss development factor of 1.08 in Column 2 of the December 2021 row is calculated by taking the paid loss of $130 in Column 3, divided by the paid loss of $120 in Column 2 for the December 2021 row. Next, the actuarial analyst selected a 1.27 in the first column as the predicted Column 1 loss development factor for the accidents happening in the 6-month period ending June of 2023. We can see that in the June 2023 row, $120 had been paid out by the end of June 2023. The analyst is predicting that paid losses will increase by 27% or $33 during the second half of 2023 and cumulatively be at $153 by December 2023. Multiplying the $153 by an additional 8% predicts that an additional $12 will get paid out by the third column for a cumulative of $165. Thus, the shaded numbers in blue are predictions of what will be paid out in the future.

类似地，2021年12月行第二列的1.08损失发展因子是通过将第三列的已付损失130美元除以第二列的已付损失120美元计算得出的。接下来，精算分析师选择了第一列的1.27作为预测值，用于2023年6月结束的6个月期间发生的事故的第一列损失发展因子。我们可以看到，在2023年6月的行中，到2023年6月底已支付了120美元。分析师预测，在2023年下半年，已付损失将增加27%或33美元，到2023年12月累计达到153美元。将153美元再乘以8%，预测到第三列将再支付额外的12美元，累计达到165美元。因此，蓝色阴影数字是对未来将支付金额的预测。

这种预测有可能只适用于短期。

The indicated reserve is then calculated by taking the ultimate estimated paid losses minus what has already been paid as of June 2023 since reserves are to cover future liabilities. The indicated reserve is $45 for accidents happening in the 6-month period ending June 2023 and $13 for accidents happening during the second half of 2022. In total, the indicated reserve is the sum of all accident periods or rows and adds up to $58. This example illustrates an accident period chain ladder approach using paid data.

指示的准备金是通过取最终估计的已付损失减去截至2023年6月已经支付的金额来计算的，因为准备金是为了覆盖未来的负债。对于在2023年6月结束的6个月期间发生的事故，指示的准备金是45美元，对于在2022年下半年发生的事故，指示的准备金是13美元。总的来说，指示的准备金是所有事故时段或行的总和，加起来总共是58美元。这个例子说明了使用已付数据的事故周期链梯方法。

Triangle, similar to this byproduct and grouped by line coverage can be found in our annual report. Other approaches that we typically employ include using case incurred data, developing severity and frequency separately and stratifying the data by size of loss layer. In addition, data is also segmented by late report and reopen lag time from the date of loss to the date of late report and reopen and hindsight testing to prior reserve amounts are considered as well. Additional ad hoc analysis is typically completed to understand changes in the underlying data and loss development factors. Based on the indications from the multiple reviews completed during the month, the actuarial team will then decide how much of an overall reserve change is needed and adjust reserve factors accordingly.

类似于这种副产品的三角形，按保险项目分组，可以在我们的年报中找到。我们通常采用的其他方法包括使用已发生案件数据，分别开发严重性和频率，并按损失层级的大小对数据进行分层。此外，数据还按延迟报告和重新开放的滞后时间进行分段，从损失日期到延迟报告和重新开放的日期，并考虑对先前准备金金额的事后测试。通常还会完成额外的临时分析，以了解基础数据和损失发展因子的变化。基于当月完成的多次审查的指示，精算团队随后将决定需要进行多少总体准备金变动，并相应调整准备金因子。

Those changes will show up in the earnings release under the actuarial adjustment section and be reported showing the breakout for the current accident year and all prior accident years. For example, in June of 2023, based off the scheduled reserve reviews, which represented between 25% to 30% of reserves, the actuarial team increased reserves $130.9 million for accident years 2022 and prior and increased reserves $160.3 million for the 2023 accident year for a total change of $291.2 million. The $130.9 million increase to prior accident years directly impacted the prior accident year development. In addition, due to other changes not related to actuarial reviews, prior accident years developed an additional $6.9 million unfavorably for a total amount of unfavorable development of $137.8 million.

这些变化将在收益发布中的精算调整部分显示出来，并报告当前事故年份和所有先前事故年份的细分。例如，在2023年6月，根据预定的准备金审查（占准备金的25%至30%），精算团队为2022年及之前的事故年份增加了1.309亿美元的准备金，为2023年的事故年份增加了1.603亿美元的准备金，总共变动了2.912亿美元。对先前事故年份增加的1.309亿美元直接影响了先前事故年份的发展。此外，由于与精算审查无关的其他变化，先前事故年份又不利地发展了690万美元，总共不利发展了1.378亿美元。

Next, we will discuss what are some of the other items that are in all other development. Now let's go through an example of the pathway of a case reserve over time and the impact on our monthly earnings release. Remember, case reserves make up about 67% of our total reserves. In this example, a claim happens on December 15 and is reported and opened in our claims system on December 19. Since the claim was reported in the same month as the occurrence of the accident, this would not be considered an IBNR claim. The adjuster does not have much information about the claim at this point and it sets a case reserve of $5,000, noted by the orange dot. In parallel, a tabular case reserve is determined for this claim from an algorithm used by the actuarial team.

好的，让我们继续讨论其他发展项目中的一些其他项目。现在让我们通过一个案例来说明案例准备金随时间的路径以及对我们每月收益发布的影响。请记住，案例准备金约占我们总准备金的67%。在这个例子中，一个索赔发生在12月15日，并在12月19日在我们的索赔系统中报告并开启。由于索赔是在事故发生的同一月份报告的，这不会被考虑为IBNR索赔。此时，理算员对索赔的信息并不多，设定了一个5000美元的案例准备金，用橙色点表示。同时，精算团队使用的算法为这个索赔确定了表格案例准备金。

The actuarial team uses predictive modeling techniques based off of certain characteristics of the claim and policy to predict what the expected cost would be for all claims that meet the criteria. In personal auto, there are over 200,000 unique combinations of tabular case reserves. It is important to note that the actuarial algorithm does not expect this one claim to pay exactly the tabular case reserve. But on average, all claims that meet the similar criteria should pay close to the tabular case reserve. This is similar to a pricing rate order of calculation formula. In this example, the tabular case reserve is $12,125.

精算团队根据索赔和保单的某些特征使用预测建模技术，预测符合标准的所有索赔的预期成本。在个人汽车保险中，有超过 20 万种独特的表格案例储备组合。需要注意的是，精算算法并不期望这一个理赔案件的赔付金额与表格中的案件准备金完全一致。但平均而言，所有符合类似标准的索赔都应支付接近表格中的案件准备金。这类似于定价费率计算公式。在本例中，表格中的案件准备金为 12 125 美元。

Finally, the adjuster case reserve as compared to a reserve threshold set at $25,000 in this example. If the adjuster estimate is below the reserve threshold, the tabular case reserve is booked to the general leisure as the financial case reserve for that claim and is reflected on the balance sheet. If the adjuster case reserve is greater than or equal to the threshold, the adjuster case reserve becomes the financial case reserve booked to the general ledger. The logic here is that the predictive modeling approach is fairly accurate for lower dollar claims. For more severe claims, the adjuster has received more specific information pertinent to the claim and will predict better than the model for higher dollar claims.

最终，理算员的案例准备金与本例中设定的25,000美元的准备金阈值进行比较。如果理算员的估计低于准备金阈值，则表格案例准备金将作为该索赔的财务案例准备金计入总账，并在资产负债表上反映。如果理算员的案例准备金大于或等于阈值，则理算员的案例准备金成为计入总账的财务案例准备金。这里的逻辑是，对于较低金额的索赔，预测建模方法相当准确。对于更严重的索赔，理算员已经收到了与索赔相关的更具体的信息，并且对于较高金额的索赔，理算员的预测将比模型更准确。

保险公司管理不善的风险很大，巴菲特的说法是“当有人把钱交给你，你把一张小纸片交给他们时，这是一个非常诱人的生意。”。

This combination of adjuster and tabular reserves provides more consistency and accuracy on a monthly basis. The threshold varies by several variables, including product, line coverage and limit, just to name a few. Since the adjuster case reserve is $5,000 and below the threshold, the tabular case reserve of $12,125 is used in the general ledger. In addition, $1,000 of IBNR is set to cover claims that happened in December and at some point after December, would either be late reported or reopened. The IBNR reserve is not attached to any one claim and instead, set as a factor related to earned premium to cover all potential late reported or reopened claims.

理算员和表格准备金的结合提供了每月更多的一致性和准确性。阈值因几个变量而异，包括产品、保险项目和限额，仅举几例。由于理算员的案例准备金是5000美元，低于阈值，因此在总账中使用了12125美元的表格案例准备金。此外，还设置了1000美元的IBNR（已发生但未报告的索赔准备金），以覆盖在12月发生的以及在12月之后的某个时候可能会延迟报告或重新开放的索赔。IBNR准备金不附加于任何一项索赔，而是作为与赚取的保费相关的因素，以覆盖所有潜在的延迟报告或重新开放的索赔。

The total reserve liability on the balance sheet is $12,125 per case, plus $1,000 for IBNR, equaling a total of $13,125 denoted as the dark blue dot and will be the reserve booked at the end of December. In January, the adjuster has kept their initial estimate of $5,000. Since this is below the $25,000 threshold, the tabular case reserve will again be booked to the general ledger. As part of our roll-forward process, all tabular case reserves can be adjusted monthly by an aging factor and inflation factor. As the claim is 1 month older, the actuarial algorithm predicted that all claims remaining open would have a higher ultimate cost.

资产负债表上的总准备金负债为每个案例12,125美元，加上IBNR的1,000美元，总计13,125美元，用深蓝色点表示，并将在12月底作为准备金入账。在1月份，理算员保持了他们最初的5,000美元估计。由于这个数字低于25,000美元的阈值，表格案例准备金将再次记入总账。作为我们滚动过程的一部分，所有表格案例准备金都可以通过老化因子和通货膨胀因子每月进行调整。随着索赔年龄增加1个月，精算算法预测所有仍然开放的索赔最终成本会更高。

In addition, all tabular case reserves that are not part of an in-depth actuarial review during the month gets inflated as well. The new tabular case reserve is 12,376, which is an increase of $251. A portion of this $251 increase is aging and a portion is inflation. This will show up in the earnings release as unfavorable prior accident year all other reserve development in January. It is important to note that other claims that settled in January may have settled for more or less than the December tabular case reserve, which would also show up in the all other development category of the earnings release. In February, the adjuster has received new information and increased their estimate to $15,000. This amount is still below the threshold and thus, the tabular case reserve is still used to set the case reserve liability. In February, this claim was part of the 25% to 30% of reserves reviewed at an in-depth level by the actuarial team. The actuarial team increased the tabular case reserve for all claims that have a similar criteria as this claim to $13,500, which is an increase of $1,124 from January.

此外，当月没有进行深入精算审查的所有表格案例准备金也会受到膨胀的影响。新的表格案例准备金是12,376美元，增加了251美元。这251美元增加中有一部分是老化因素，有一部分是通货膨胀因素。这将在1月份的收益发布中显示为不利的上一年度事故的其他准备金发展。需要注意的是，1月份结算的其他索赔可能比12月份的表格案例准备金多或少结算，这也将在收益发布的其他发展类别中显示。在2月份，理算员收到了新信息，将他们的估计增加到15,000美元。这个数额仍然低于阈值，因此仍然使用表格案例准备金来设定案例准备金负债。在2月份，这个索赔是精算团队深入审查的25%到30%的准备金的一部分。精算团队将所有具有与此索赔相似标准的索赔的表格案例准备金增加到13,500美元，比1月份增加了1,124美元。

This increase will show up as unfavorable prior accident year actuarial adjustments in the earnings release. In March, the adjuster increased their estimate again this time to $20,000. Since $20,000 is still below the threshold of $25,000, the tabular case reserve is still used as the case reserve book to the general ledger. The claim becomes plaintiff attorney rep in March, Thus, while the tabular case reserve will be inflated and aged again, it will also change due to becoming plaintiff attorney rep as this is one of the variables used in the actuarial algorithm.

这种增加将在收益发布中显示为不利的上一年度事故精算调整。在3月份，理算员再次将他们的估计提高到20,000美元。由于20,000美元仍低于25,000美元的阈值，表格案例准备金仍被用作总账中的案例准备金。该索赔在3月份成为原告律师代表，因此，虽然表格案例准备金将再次膨胀和老化，但由于成为原告律师代表，它也会发生变化，因为这是精算算法中使用的一个变量。

The tabular case reserve is now $20,050 which is $6,550 greater than the prior month. A portion of this $6,550 increase is due to inflation, a portion due to aging and a portion due to the claim becoming plaintiff attorney rep. The $6,550 will show up as unfavorable prior accident year all other development in the monthly earnings release. In April, the adjuster has increased the reserve again to equal to the reserve threshold, the adjustor's estimate is booked to the general ledger as the case reserve for this claim. This is an increase of $4,950 in the case reserve on the balance sheet, moving from the tabular reserve at the end of March to the adjusted reserve at the end of April. The 4,950 will show up as unfavorable prior accident year all other development in the monthly earnings release.

表格案例准备金现在是20,050美元，比上个月增加了6,550美元。这6,550美元增加的部分原因是通货膨胀，部分原因是老化，还有部分原因是索赔变成了原告律师代表。这6,550美元将作为上一年度事故的其他不利发展在月度收益发布中显示。在4月份，理算员再次将准备金增加到等于准备金阈值，理算员的估计作为这个索赔的案例准备金记入总账。这是资产负债表上案例准备金增加了4,950美元，从3月底的表格准备金变为4月底的调整准备金。这4,950美元将作为上一年度事故的其他不利发展在月度收益发布中显示。

The adjuster made no change to their estimate in May. Case reserves set equal to or over the threshold can only be changed by the adjuster revising their estimates. Thus, there are no additional changes for inflation, aging or any other factors used in the actuarial algorithm. In June, the claim closed out and settled for $20,000. This will show as $5,000 favorable in the prior accident year, all other development section of the monthly earnings release. Finally, in July, the claim was reopened an additional payment occurred for $1,500. A claim could be reopened for several reasons. For example, a claimant may have initially been undecided about a vehicle repair and received a cash settlement based upon the initial estimate. Several months later, they may have ultimately decided to repair the vehicle, and additional damage may have been found.

5 月份，理算师没有对他们的估算进行修改。案例储备金等于或超过阈值，只能由调整者修改其估算。因此，不会因通货膨胀、老化或精算算法中使用的任何其他因素而发生额外变化。6 月份，理赔结案，理赔金额为 20,000 美元。这将在月度收益发布的上一事故年度所有其他发展部分显示为 5,000 美元的有利赔付。最后，在 7 月份，索赔重新开始，额外支付了 1,500 美元。重新审理申请可能有多种原因。例如，索赔人最初可能对车辆维修未作决定，并根据最初的估价获得了现金结算。几个月后，他们可能最终决定修理车辆，并可能发现了额外的损坏。

Another example is when a claimant may initially feel that they are not injured in an accident, the claim is closed and subsequently reopened when the person realizes that they were injured in the accident. While the case reserve had closed out in June, we were still carrying $1,000 of IBNR reserves for the potential of a December claim being late reported or reopening. For this example, the IBNR reserve was released in July, which means that there is an expectation that there will be no future costs from late reports or reopens from any accident that occurred in 2022 and is currently not an open case reserve as of the end of July.

另一个例子是，当索赔人最初认为自己没有在事故中受伤时，索赔已经结案，随后当索赔人意识到自己在事故中受伤时，索赔又重新开始。虽然案件储备金已在 6 月份结清，但我们仍保留了 1,000 美元的 IBNR 储备金，以备 12 月份可能出现的索赔迟报或重开情况。在此示例中，IBNR 储备已于 7 月释放，这意味着 2022 年发生的任何事故在 7 月底之前都不会因延迟报告或重新开业而产生费用，目前也不属于未结案储备。

The development is unfavorable $500. This would show up in the prior accident year all other category of the earnings release. In practice, the IBNR reserve for prior accident years tends to get released monthly as part of another actuarial algorithm as the probability of late reports and reopens decreases with time. An in-depth review of IBNR reserves are completed in tandem with case reserves. Remember, any changes made to factors by the actuarial team as a result of those reviews will show up under the prior accident year actuarial category.

发展不利 500 美元。这将显示在上一事故年度所有其他类别的收益发布中。在实践中，随着时间的推移，迟报和重开的概率会降低，因此作为另一种精算算法的一部分，上一事故年度的 IBNR 储备往往会按月发布。对 IBNR 储备的深入审查是与案例储备同时完成的。请记住，精算团队根据这些审查结果对因素所做的任何更改都将显示在上一事故年度精算类别下。

For the year, the starting reserve was $13,125 and the claim was eventually paid for $21,500. The year-to-date development is unfavorable by this difference, which is $8,375. I as the Chief Actuary, have complete decision-making authority on our reserves. And while the actuarial team has complete independence in determining the reserves to be booked, there are many checks and balances in place. Internally, we have a close partnership with our claims, pricing and product management business partners. Meetings are held throughout the month at both a localized and national level discussing trends, changes in the mix of business, claims process changes, rate activity and methodologies.

本年度的起始储备金为 13 125 美元，最终赔付了 21 500 美元。本年度迄今为止的发展因这一差额而变得不利，差额为 8,375 美元。作为总精算师，我对我们的储备金拥有完全的决策权。虽然精算团队在确定入账储备金方面具有完全的独立性，但也有许多制衡措施。在内部，我们与我们的理赔、定价和产品管理业务合作伙伴保持着密切的合作关系。我们每个月都会在本地和全国范围内召开会议，讨论发展趋势、业务组合变化、理赔流程变化、费率活动和方法。

PGR因为技术能力倾向于贴着河边走路，这种打法有一些局限性，比如，资本积累不够，更适合高频、标准化的交易，住房相关的险种就没有做好，等等。

Quarterly, I meet with the Audit Committee members of the Board of Directors to discuss results and trends for the quarter. Furthermore, our external auditors perform an annual audit of the company as required by the SEC. My actuarial team meets with the audit firm to discuss our actuarial process, current trends and results for the respective quarters and year.

每季度，我都会与董事会审计委员会成员会面，讨论本季度的业绩和趋势。此外，我们的外部审计师会按照美国证券交易委员会的要求对公司进行年度审计。我的精算团队会与审计公司会面，讨论我们的精算流程、当前趋势以及各季度和年度的结果。

I hope that you have found this presentation helpful. For more information on Progressive's loss reserving practices, we posted a report under the investor site of progressive.com. This report is updated every 2 years. Thank you for your time today. And I will next turn it over to Jim to discuss cohort pricing.

希望本报告对您有所帮助。如需了解有关 Progressive 损失准备金做法的更多信息，我们在 progressive.com 的投资者网站上发布了一份报告。该报告每两年更新一次。感谢各位今天抽出宝贵的时间。接下来请吉姆讨论同业定价。

Jim Curtis 吉姆-柯蒂斯

Thanks, Gary. Now let's transition from estimating ultimate losses in LAE to another key element of our pricing, which is our expected lifetime value. We price each policy written to a lifetime target consistent with our enterprise goal of a 96 combined ratio. We refer to this as cohort pricing where a cohort is defined by policies written at new business and followed through their expected lifetime value, including all renewal terms. Lifetime performance is measured as the sum of all expenses realized and the premium earned across all new and renewal terms for a policy. When I say all expenses, by that, I mean loss, LAE, acquisition expenses and operational expenses. As you can see by the stylized chart, loss and expense costs vary between new and renewal policy terms. With this in mind, we price across the policy life to achieve a lifetime 96 combined ratio. Said another way, the sum of lifetime loss and expenses divided by lifetime earned premium, nets us at 96 combined. This pricing approach positions us to offer a competitive rate of new business and stable rates across renewals.

感谢Gary。现在让我们从估算LAE的最终损失转向我们定价的另一个关键要素，即我们预期的终身价值。我们根据与我们企业目标一致的终身目标96综合比率为每个已写的政策定价。我们称之为同期定价，其中同期定义为按新业务写的政策，并跟踪其预期的终身价值，包括所有续保期限。终身绩效是衡量所有新保和续保期限内实现的所有费用总和以及赚取的保费。当我说所有费用时，我的意思是损失、LAE（损失调整费用）、获取费用和运营费用。如您所见，损失和费用成本在新保和续保政策期限之间有所不同。考虑到这一点，我们在整个政策生命周期内定价，以实现终身96综合比率。换句话说，终身损失和费用总和除以终身赚取的保费，使我们达到96综合比率。这种定价方法使我们能够为新业务提供有竞争力的费率，并在续保中提供稳定的费率。

降低成本为主线的战略是个大问题，感觉没有善终的，安全边际不够经不起波动，Amazon也是这个问题。

Now that we have a conceptual view of cohort pricing, let's dig into the mechanics. The following is a tabular representation of the lifetime view we covered in the last graph. We think about pricing in 3 separate categories: loss in LAE, acquisition expense and operational expense. Loss and LAE represent our indemnity experience. We break out our expense ratio into acquisition and operational expenses. And in all cases, renewal business operates at a total lower cost structure than the first term or our new business.

现在我们已经对同期定价有了概念性的理解，让我们深入了解其机制。以下是一个表格，展示了我们在上一个图表中介绍的终身视角。我们从3个不同的类别考虑定价：损失和LAE（损失调整费用）、获取费用和运营费用。损失和LAE代表我们的赔偿经验。我们将费用比率细分为获取费用和运营费用。在所有情况下，续保业务的总成本结构都低于首期或我们的新业务。

While we price to the lifetime profitability of our policies at a 96 or better, we also manage this approach with consideration to our calendar year goal of meeting a 96 or better-combined ratio. Next will explore each individual category or line item and finish with our management of cohort pricing within our calendar year 96 goal. Let's start with loss and LAE expense. Loss ratio improves from new business to renewal and is primarily a function of mix of business and policy life expectancy. And we priced to that expected lifetime loss ratio performance based on the characteristics at new business, which ensures the business written is priced to a lifetime target.

虽然我们以96或更好为目标定价我们政策的终身盈利能力，我们还考虑实现日历年96或更好综合比率的目标来管理这种方法。接下来将探讨每个单独的类别或项目，并以我们在日历年96目标内的同期定价管理结束。让我们从损失和LAE费用开始。损失比率从新业务到续保有所改善，主要是业务组合和保单预期寿命的函数。我们根据新业务的特征定价预期的终身损失比率表现，这确保了所写业务是按照终身目标定价的。

Starting in the upper left in this illustrative example, you can see that our first-term business runs at a loss and LAE ratio of 85% with our renewal book of business at 77%. With an expected policy life of 6 policy terms, the lifetime loss and LAE ratio is at 78%. When combined with our other expense categories, the lifetime CR is at 96%, thereby combining new and renewal performance and achieving our lifetime target. However, within the new-to-renewal loss ratio performance, there are segmentation opportunities as not all policy characteristics at new business have the same expected lifetime loss ratio performance. Building on this with an illustrative example, consider car color starting in the upper right. When looking at the expected renewal improvement from new business in loss ratio on red cars, we see a larger change than we expect to see in green cars.

在这个示例的左上角，你可以看到我们的首期业务在损失和LAE比率为85%，而我们的续保业务为77%。预期保单寿命为6个保单期限，终身损失和LAE比率为78%。当结合我们其他费用类别时，终身综合比率为96%，从而结合新保和续保表现并实现我们的终身目标。然而，在新保到续保的损失比率表现中，存在细分机会，因为并非所有新保业务的特征都具有相同的预期终身损失比率表现。通过一个示例来进一步说明这一点，考虑右上角的汽车颜色。在查看红色汽车从新保到预期续保改善的损失比率时，我们看到的变化比我们在绿色汽车中预期看到的要大。

The implication for pricing are twofold. First, we observed that red cars last on average 5 policy terms and green cars last on average 7 policy terms. The second consideration is that the loss behavior also varies. We priced at this differential in expected policy life expectancy and the different improvement in indemnity performance between the 2 segments, in this illustrative case car color. Applying this to a real-life opportunity, we frequently discuss key consumer segments as Sams, Dianes, Wrights and Robinsons and our continued opportunity for growth in the Robinsons segment. As a refresher, Robinsons, our consumers who bundle their home and auto needs and typically have a longer policy life expectancy. We can recognize this policy extension and build it into our pricing, which ultimately leads to lower rates with more lifetime renewal premium at a lower cost structure. Finally, while I focused on the indemnity piece of cohort pricing, you'll also note that the policy life expectancy can affect the other expense categories.

定价的含义有两个方面。首先，我们观察到红色汽车平均持续5个保单期限，而绿色汽车平均持续7个保单期限。第二个考虑因素是损失行为也有所不同。我们根据预期的保单寿命差异以及两个细分市场之间在赔偿性能上的不同改进来定价，在这个示例案例中是汽车颜色。将这一点应用到现实生活的机会中，我们经常讨论关键消费者细分市场，如Sams、Dianes、Wrights和Robinsons，以及我们在Robinsons细分市场中持续增长的机会。作为回顾，Robinsons是我们那些将家庭和汽车需求捆绑在一起的消费者，通常有更长的保单寿命预期。我们可以认识到这种保单延期，并将其纳入我们的定价中，这最终导致在更低的成本结构下，终身续保保费降低。最后，虽然我专注于同期定价的赔偿部分，您也会注意到保单寿命预期可能会影响到其他费用类别。

任何行为即本质，任何行为都反映了性格，大型科技企业更有能力做这个业务，传统企业都面临这个问题，竞争是残酷的，淘汰弱者也是残酷的，不进则退。

We'll move into the distribution channel and acquisition costs next. Before we dig deeper into acquisition expenses, we need to first review the fundamental differences between the direct channel and the independent agency channel. While we price both channels to a lifetime 96, the economics differ in both how we account for the acquisition cost and relatedly, the timing of those costs. Starting on the left, Direct has an upfront acquisition expense by virtue of our marketing spend. We spend consumer marketing dollars, media and nonmedia alike and account for the entire acquisition expense in the new business term. We can see that in the illustrative example with a 60% acquisition expense ratio on the first term and 0% on subsequent renewal terms.

我们将进入分销渠道和获取成本的讨论。在我们深入研究获取费用之前，我们需要首先回顾直销渠道和独立代理渠道之间的基本差异。虽然我们对两个渠道都定价为终身96，但在我们如何核算获取成本以及这些成本的相关时机方面，经济情况有所不同。从左边开始，直销由于我们的市场营销支出而有前期获取费用。我们花费消费者营销美元，包括媒体和非媒体，并将整个获取费用计入新业务期限。我们可以通过示例看到一个首期60%的获取费用比率，以及后续续保期限的0%。

Again, this reinforces the lifetime value of extending policy life expectancy. With the independent agency channel, policies are acquired at the cost of commission paid to the agent. The commission expense is paid to the agent and ultimately reflects a percentage of premium earned by policy term. Unlike Direct, we see a much smaller acquisition expense in the first term, which reflects the commission paid on that term, and we see additional expense in renewal policies also reflecting a percentage of premium earned. In both cases, in this dialyzed example, lifetime acquisition expense is 10%, and we achieved a 96% combined ratio, but we have a much larger first-term expense in Direct and a higher renewal expense in Agency.

再次强调，这强化了延长保单寿命预期的终身价值。在独立代理渠道中，保单的获取成本是支付给代理人的佣金。佣金费用支付给代理人，最终反映为按保单期限赚取的保费的百分比。与直销不同，我们看到首期的获取费用要小得多，这反映了该期限支付的佣金，并且我们看到续保保单中也有额外的费用，也反映了按赚取的保费的百分比。在这两种情况下，在这种透析示例中，终身获取费用为10%，我们实现了96%的综合比率，但直销的首期费用更大，代理的续保费用更高。

Let's look at each distribution channel in a little more detail. We'll start by spending more time on how policy life expectancy is a key component to our direct acquisition economics. Consider 2 policies with different PLEs. In policy #1, we see a total of 6 policy terms with a target acquisition expense of 60% on that first term. With an average policy premium of about $750, we can assume our rate level considers about a $450 acquisition expense, which is about 10% across the entire life of the policy. In other words, 750 x 6 policy terms is 4,500 and the $450 policy acquisition expense is 10% over that lifetime premium.

让我们更详细地看看每个分销渠道。我们将首先花更多时间讨论保单寿命预期是如何成为我们直销获取经济的关键组成部分。考虑两个具有不同预期寿命的保单。在保单#1中，我们看到总共有6个保单期限，首期的目标获取费用为60%。假设平均保单保费约为750美元，我们可以假设我们的费率水平考虑了大约450美元的获取费用，这在整个保单生命周期中约占10%。换句话说，750美元乘以6个保单期限是4500美元，而450美元的保单获取费用在整个生命周期保费中占10%。

Now let's move to policy #2. Holding all else constant, but the policy life expectancy, you can see the first term assumptions produces the same 450 permissible or 60% of 750. However, with the addition of 2 policy terms, the acquisition expense of $450 million is now 8% of total policy lifetime premium. Said another way, we invested the same $450 in policy acquisition as we did in policy #1, but we see the benefit the PLE extension gives us as a lower acquisition expense as a percentage of lifetime premium. We can segment our pricing to capture differences in policy life expectancy. Depending on market conditions, we can either increase the allowable to drive additional demand or we can lower our rate level to increase our new business conversion. In both cases, we will still achieve a lifetime 96. A real-life example would be our continued segmentation efforts, reflecting our consumer marketing segments and correspondingly, our investment to acquire Robinsons. Again, those who bundle home and auto, which carry a longer policy life expectancy compared to those who don't bundle their home and auto with Progressive.

好的，让我们转向保单#2。在其他所有条件保持不变的情况下，但保单寿命预期，你可以看到首期假设产生了相同的450美元或750美元的60%。然而，随着增加2个保单期限，450美元的获取费用现在占总保单生命周期保费的8%。换句话说，我们在保单获取上投资了与保单#1相同的450美元，但我们看到了预期寿命延长给我们带来的好处，即获取费用占终身保费的百分比降低。我们可以对定价进行细分，以捕捉保单寿命预期的差异。根据市场条件，我们可以增加允许的范围以驱动额外的需求，或者我们可以降低费率水平以增加我们的新业务转化。在这两种情况下，我们仍然会实现终身96。一个现实生活的例子将是我们持续的细分努力，反映我们的消费者市场细分，并相应地，我们投资以获取Robinsons。再次强调，那些将家庭和汽车捆绑在一起的人，与那些不将家庭和汽车与Progressive捆绑在一起的人相比，具有更长的保单寿命预期。

Moving on to the Agency channel. This distribution business model takes a different form, as I mentioned, we pay commission to agents. In the example above, the policy achieves a lifetime 96, but you can see that the acquisition expense ratio is the same between the first policy term and the remaining 5 renewal terms. This is possible because we pay commission by policy term and ultimately unearned premium. In practice, it is possible to vary commission by new and renewal. However, even in this scenario, the combined ratio implications will likely be much flatter than what we see in our direct economics. Because we pay a percent of commission is earned, acquisition costs and dollars will vary based on policy premium, but as a percentage of premium, we'll always match.

转移到代理渠道。这种分销商业模式采取了不同的形式，正如我提到的，我们向代理人支付佣金。在上述示例中，保单实现了终身96，但您可以看到首期和剩余5个续保期限的获取费用比率相同。这是可能的，因为我们按保单期限支付佣金，最终是未赚取的保费。在实践中，可以变化新的和续保的佣金。然而，即使在这种情况下，综合比率的影响可能会比我们在直销经济中看到的要平坦得多。因为我们支付赚取的佣金百分比，获取成本和美元将根据保单保费而变化，但作为保费的百分比，我们将始终匹配。

This is a key element in cohort pricing as the dollars may vary, but the expense as a percentage of the premium will be the same. We still see cohort performance that has an overall higher cost structure in new business, but it is proportionately more in an indemnity and operational expense relative to our direct business model. Finally, we finished with operational expenses, and we see a modest new renewal differential. The operational cost for servicing new business policies is greater than the operational cost for renewal terms. The remaining other category includes things like bad debt or unpaid balances on earned premiums. We extend coverage on a canceled policy and did not receive payment. This happens with greater frequency on new business. We see these expense differentials consistently and can also price them into our product. Calendar year earnings have an implicit new and renewal mix driving results, and we manage that mix to ensure target combined ratios are achieved for the calendar year-end question.

这是同期定价的一个关键要素，因为美元金额可能会变化，但作为保费百分比的费用将保持相同。我们仍然看到同期表现在新业务中具有总体上更高的成本结构，但它在赔偿和运营费用方面相对于我们的直销商业模式比例更大。最后，我们以运营费用结束，我们看到新保和续保的差异很小。为新业务保单提供服务的运营成本高于续保期限的运营成本。剩余的其他类别包括坏账或未付的应收保费余额。我们在取消的保单上延长了保险范围，并未收到付款。这种情况在新业务中发生得更频繁。我们始终看到这些费用差异，并且也可以将它们定价到我们的产品中。日历年收益有一个隐含的新保和续保混合驱动结果，我们管理这种混合以确保在日历年末实现目标综合比率问题。

While managing our new renewal mix, we consider both the mix of our cohorts and the rate revisions earning in. Remember that rate from revisions take time to earn in as policies have to renew into the new rate level. Typically, this happens in our new business faster than renewal as our rates hit the marketplace before our renewal book. This will affect the combined ratio performance of our new business and renewal cohorts. Setting rate changes aside, periods of accelerated new business application growth can apply upward pressure on our combined ratio, as we now know, new business has a higher expected combined ratio and in the case of Direct has additional pressure based on our accounting of consumer marketing expense.

在管理我们的新保和续保组合时，我们考虑了我们的同期群体的混合以及正在生效的费率修订。请记住，费率修订需要时间来生效，因为保单需要续保到新的费率水平。通常，这在我们的新业务中比续保发生得更快，因为我们的费率在续保保单之前就进入了市场。这将影响我们新业务和续保同期的综合比率表现。抛开费率变化不谈，新业务申请增长加速的时期可能会对我们的综合比率施加上行压力，因为现在我们知道，新业务有更高的预期综合比率，而在直销的情况下，由于我们对消费者营销费用的会计处理，还会有额外的压力。

Using this stylized example, you can see that in a period of high growth, new business makes up a larger portion of our total earned premium. And while we may be within our lifetime targets, we see our calendar combined ratio pierce the 96. To manage this, we can slow growth and thereby reduce the mix of new business earned premiums, which results in a combined ratio less than our 96 goals. And in both cases, we are within our cohort targets.

使用这个程式化的例子，你可以看到在高增长时期，新业务占据了我们总赚取保费的较大部分。虽然我们可能达到了我们的终身目标，但我们发现我们的日历综合比率突破了96。为了管理这一点，我们可以减缓增长，从而降低新业务赚取保费的混合比例，这导致综合比率低于我们的96目标。在这两种情况下，我们都在我们的同期目标之内。

This is a great example of how we develop our media budget. We consider both our lifetime economics and our margin position considering each simultaneously with calendar year performance taking priority, and we then adjust our budget accordingly. Upward pressure from new business can be dampened by the lengthening of policy life expectancy as our renewal book becomes a larger portion of the overall book of business. With the expected combined ratio improvement, we can use that to manage new and renewal earned premium mix. As you can see, as it relates to our expected cohort performance, we price across the lifetime of a policy and balance our near-term and long-term growth with our 96 calendar year goal. Thank you for your time.

这是我们如何制定媒体预算的一个绝佳示例。我们同时考虑我们的终身经济学和利润率位置，优先考虑日历年的表现，并相应调整我们的预算。随着保单寿命预期的延长，我们的续保业务在整体业务中所占比例越来越大，从而可以减轻新业务带来的上行压力。有了预期的综合比率改善，我们可以用它来管理新业务和续保赚取的保费混合。如您所见，与我们预期的同期表现相关，我们在保单的整个生命周期内定价，并平衡我们的短期和长期增长，以达到我们96日历年的目标。感谢您的时间。

行业内有人把比较赚钱的业务做成不怎么赚钱，并且已经做到比较大的市场份额，其他人要么跟进要么出局，PGR这么搞能不能成为最终的赢家？看上去还是有风险的，赚的不够多。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

A - Douglas Constantine A - 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁

This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions, including presenters, Gary Traicoff and Jim Curtis, who can answer questions about the presentation. [Operator Instructions]. We will now take our first question.

今天活动的录制到此结束。我们现在有管理团队成员现场回答问题，包括主持人加里-特拉科夫（Gary Traicoff）和吉姆-柯蒂斯（Jim Curtis），他们可以回答有关演讲的问题。[接线员指令]：现在开始第一个问题。

Operator 操作员

The first question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

第一个问题来自富国银行的伊利斯-格林斯潘。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

My first question, you guys highlighted that you need 6 points of additional price, right, in Personal Auto over the balance of the year. Can you just help us get a sense, what are you assuming for severity and even frequency, just overall from a loss trend perspective when you think about additional rate need from here?

我的第一个问题是，你们强调在今年余下的时间里，个人汽车业务需要 6 个点的额外价格。你们能否帮助我们了解一下，当你们从损失趋势的角度考虑额外费率需求时，你们对严重程度甚至频率的假设是什么？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Thanks, Elyse. We really don't share our trend selects normally. But obviously, we've been seeing the trends in shorter-tail business increase as just the repairs to vehicles have slowed down. And when we look at that in overall kind of both frequency and severity, we think we're at 6 right now. And just like I said in the last call that could range. But at this juncture, we think we need another 6, so about 17-ish for the full year.

感谢Elyse。我们通常不会分享我们的趋势选择。但显然，我们已经看到在短期业务中的趋势增加，就像车辆修理已经放缓。当我们从整体上看，无论是频率还是严重性，我们认为我们现在处于6。就像我在上次电话会议中说的那样，这个范围可能会变化。但在这个阶段，我们认为我们还需要6，所以大约是全年的17左右。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

And that will get you -- you believe that will get you to the 96?

这样就能让你 -- 你相信这样就能让你到 96 ？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

It will certainly get close. Again, all the caveats I said last time with weather. We feel much better about our reserving because of those losses being short-tailed, and we started seeing those at the end of last year. So I believe Gary really got out in front of that. It will certainly get us closer. But again, all the caveats and the uncertainty that we've felt for the last 3 years kind of are underlying that assumption.

肯定会很接近的。还是我上次说的关于天气的所有注意事项。由于这些损失是短尾损失，我们对我们的准备金感觉好多了，我们从去年年底就开始看到这些损失了。因此，我相信加里在这方面确实走在了前面。这肯定会让我们更接近目标。但同样的，我们在过去 3 年中感受到的所有注意事项和不确定性也是这一假设的基础。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

And then my follow-up, you guys saw a significant amount of adverse development for accident year 2022. So I'm just trying to square the fact that there was a good amount of adverse development for accident year '22 with the improvement that you're seeing in the accident year ex-cat loss ratio so far this year.

我的跟进问题是，你们在2022年的事故年份看到了相当大的不利发展。所以我只是想弄清楚，事实上2022年的事故年份有相当大的不利发展，与你们今年迄今为止在排除巨灾损失比率方面看到的改善之间的关系。

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Yes. What I would say to that is as those 2022 rates earned in that I put on one of the slides that I had, we believe we're putting on the books both new and renewal business that is closer to or below our targets, our accident year targets, I should say, in both channels on a year-to-date basis. So we feel good about where we're at in the business we're putting on the book in 2023.

是的。我想说的是，随着我在幻灯片上投放的 2022 年费率的提高，我们相信，从年初至今，我们在两个渠道投放的新业务和续保业务都接近或低于我们的目标，我应该说是我们的事故年目标。因此，我们对 2023 年的业务情况感觉良好。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Mike Zaremski with BMO.

下一个问题来自蒙特利尔银行的 Mike Zaremski。

Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基

I guess my first question is on loss cost expenses. And you talked about, Tricia, coming from a variety of sources. And you also talked in the letter about some of those sources looking like they're maybe mean reverting or decelerating a bit. But I guess just stepping back, I know there's -- I know this is a complicated issue because there's lots of different sources.

我想我的第一个问题是关于损失成本支出的。特里西娅，你谈到了损失成本支出的来源。你还在信中谈到，其中一些来源看起来可能是平均值回落或略有减速。但我想退一步说，我知道这是一个复杂的问题，因为有很多不同的来源。

But we saw, I feel like over the last decade or so, a bit of a secular trend in terms of higher bodily injury expense inflation levels. And maybe you disagree with that. But -- and the industry seems like they've been doing a decent job of appreciating that over time in pricing for it. It seems like it's coming more -- or we can see the data is coming more from the non-BI side today.

但我觉得，在过去的十几年里，我们看到了身体伤害费用通胀水平上升的趋势。也许你不同意这一点。但是，随着时间的推移，该行业似乎在定价方面做得不错。今天，我们可以看到更多的数据来自非人身伤害方面。

And so do you feel like there's like a stickiness to this that you and the industry are appreciating? And ultimately, does this kind of cause Progressive to not be able to maybe play as much often if there's uncertainty on the trend over the coming year or so?

所以你觉得这个行业有粘性吗，你们是否在欣赏这一点？最终，如果对未来一年左右的趋势存在不确定性，这是否会让Progressive无法像以前那样经常参与进来？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Yes. I think we have our arms around it. I mean for BI, obviously, we try to keep ahead of that trend. When we see it, we react to it, and we're in line with the industry. This has been a very unusual time. As you know, if you've looked over the last couple of years, and you've seen the Manheim used car index and how that's flowed.

是的。我认为我们已经掌握了它。我的意思是，对于人身伤害保险（BI），显然，我们试图保持领先于这一趋势。当我们看到它时，我们会对其做出反应，我们与行业保持一致。这是一个非常不寻常的时期。正如你所知，如果你回顾过去几年，你已经看到了Manheim二手车指数以及它的流动情况。

Even though you're seeing it tick down a little bit, it still is a very big difference in what you saw in 2018 and 2019. So when we look at that, especially as we looked at the second half of last year, we really started to see the trend, specifically in property damage, but also in collision increase. And it's really -- and we're watching it flow through in our claims organization.

尽管你看到它略有下降，但与2018年和2019年相比，仍然有很大的差异。所以当我们看到这一点时，特别是当我们回顾去年的下半年，我们真的开始看到趋势，特别是在财产损失方面，但也在碰撞中增加。这确实是——我们正在观察它在我们的索赔组织中流动。

So you have -- let's take the property damage example. Somebody is taking care -- another one of our carriers -- competitors taking care of their insured, but they're going to subrogate us. So that accident happens today. And there's no shop capacity for that particular hit.

因此，我们以财产损失为例。我们的另一个承保人--竞争对手正在处理他们的被保险人，但他们将代位求偿我们。因此，事故就发生在今天。而我们的承保公司却没有能力处理这种事故。

So they do an estimate as best they can with the sheet metal still in the car. Let's say it's drivable, for this example. And they continue to drive. The shop can get it in 45 days from now, maybe 60 days from now. It comes in, they get the sheet metal off of it, oh, lo and behold, there's more damage. Those supplements are more frequent, and they're more expensive.

因此，他们会在钣金还在车上的情况下尽可能地进行估算。在这个例子中，我们假设它是可以驾驶的。他们继续开车。修理厂可以在 45 天后拿到车，也许 60 天后。车到手后，他们把钣金拆下来，一看，损坏更严重了。这样的补充更频繁，费用也更高。

So you're having capacities, longer cycle times, longer rental times. I think I said in my letter, the rental time, we're seeing it go down a little bit, and that's one data point. So we'll continue to watch that. But you've got that, and then you've got labor rates and parts increase. So in terms of your question, the stickiness, will likely be based on wages for workers in the body shop.

因此，你们的产能、周期时间和租赁时间都在延长。我想我在信中说过，我们看到租赁时间在一点点缩短，这是一个数据点。因此，我们会继续关注。但是，有了这个数据，劳动力价格和零部件价格也会上涨。因此，就你的问题而言，粘性很可能取决于车身车间工人的工资。

So there -- recently a Wall Street Journal article that talked about automotive repair workers, their salaries increased 24% in quarter 4 of 2022 compared to 2018. So 20% over the last year, and that was from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And making cars be in the same position, the indemnification of the vehicles has also soared since 2018, about 36%.

因此，最近《华尔街日报》的一篇文章谈到了汽车维修工人，与2018年相比，他们的工资在2022年第四季度增长了24%。因此，在过去的一年里，他们的工资增长了20%，这是劳工统计局的数据。而让汽车处于同样的位置，车辆的赔偿金自2018年以来也飙升了约36%。

So I do think we might see some trends like in used car prices as the supply chain issues came through and new, et cetera. That might continue to go down. But I think some of the other things will be part of our new normal.

因此，我认为我们可能会看到一些趋势，比如随着供应链问题的解决，二手车价格以及新车价格等。这可能会继续下降。但我认为，其他一些事情将成为我们新常态的一部分。

Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基

Okay. That's helpful. My final question is on the expense ratio. It's been -- the expense ratio has come down a lot. You've called out. We can see some of the math behind it. It looks like ad expenses has been the biggest lever, which is a great lever to have. But kind of curious directionally is -- we're looking at the ad expense ratio over a decade plus, is this -- are we kind of at the trough? Or is there more room for either ad and/or the expense ratio to come down in the coming quarters?

好的这很有帮助。我的最后一个问题是关于费用率的。费用率已经下降了很多。你已经说过了。我们可以看到背后的一些数学计算。看起来广告费用是最大的杠杆，这是一个很好的杠杆。但我们好奇的是，从方向上看，我们现在看到的是十多年来的广告费用比率，这--我们是否处于低谷？或者在未来几个季度，广告和/或费用率是否还有下降的空间？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Well, as we attempt to get to our calendar year 96 where there's always levers we can pull, clearly, I'd rather be in a different position where we're spending more money on media and continuing to grow as long as, of course, that would be at our target profit margins. We have a lot of discipline within the company as well in terms of expenses in times such as these. So we -- obviously, we'll continue to look at that for this next 6 months to see if we can get closer to that 96.

显然，我更希望我们能在不同的位置上，在媒体上花更多的钱，并继续保持增长，当然，这要以我们的目标利润率为前提。在这种情况下，我们在公司内部也有很多支出纪律。因此，在接下来的 6 个月里，我们将继续关注这一问题，看看是否能接近 96%的目标。

Operator 操作员

The next question comes from Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan Securities.

下一个问题来自摩根大通证券公司的吉米-布拉尔（Jimmy Bhullar）。

Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔

So you went through a lot of details on your whole process on reserving. But maybe just stepping back, can you talk about your confidence in where your reserves sit now? And given that you've had, I think, 6 straight months of adverse development, are you much more comfortable in reserves overall? Or is there still a lot of uncertainty, and it's hard to say that you've got up in terms of loss trends?

你已经详细介绍了整个储备过程。但是，或许可以退一步说，你能谈谈你对目前储备情况的信心吗？我想，鉴于你们已经连续 6 个月出现不利发展，你们对整体储备是否更加放心？还是仍然存在很多不确定性，很难说你们已经掌握了损失趋势？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

I'll let Gary weigh in on that. I would say from where I sit, I'm much more comfortable. But again, Gary is independent and does his reserve reviews without my involvement. I hear about that just a little bit before you do. So Gary, why don't you weigh in a little bit.

这个问题还是让加里来回答吧。我想说，从我的角度来看，我更放心。但同样，加里是独立的，他在没有我参与的情况下进行储备审查。我比你更早听到这个消息。所以，加里，你来评价一下吧。

Gary Traicoff 加里-崔可夫

Sure. Thanks, Tricia. Great question, Jimmy. So overall, yes, I feel really good about our overall reserve position and where we're at right now. To your point, we have had quite a bit of unfavorable development each of the last 6 months. As Tricia pointed out, if you exclude Florida, all of the development would really be coming from accident year 2022 were actually favorable on accident year '21 and prior.

当然，谢谢，特里西娅。问得好，吉米。总体而言，是的，我对我们的整体储备状况和目前的状况感觉非常好。对于你的问题，我们在过去 6 个月中的每个月都有相当多的不利发展。正如特里西娅（Tricia）所指出的，如果不包括佛罗里达州，所有的发展都将来自于 2022 年的事故年，而 21 年及之前的事故年实际上是有利的。

And within accident year '22, over 85% is from accidents that happened in the last 6 months of the year. And a lot of that relates to the fixing cars and the reopen severity that Tricia was talking about. That's fairly short-tailed. We've seen that come through the data, and we have reacted very quickly to it.

在 22 年发生的事故中，85% 以上都是发生在当年最后 6 个月的事故。其中很大一部分与特里西娅所说的修车和重新开放的严重程度有关。这是一个相当短的尾巴。我们通过数据看到了这一点，并对此做出了快速反应。

And so that gives me a lot of confidence because of the short tail nature of -- or most of the issue was that we're in a good position right now. At the same time, right, I can't obviously guarantee and the data could change going forward, but I feel really good of our current position.

因此，这给了我很大的信心，因为短尾性质--或者说大部分问题是，我们现在处于一个很好的位置。与此同时，我显然不能保证未来的数据会发生变化，但我对我们目前的状况感觉非常好。

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Thanks, Gary. 谢谢你，加里。

Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔

And along the same lines on Florida, I think it was somewhat expected that the number of lawsuits would go up given total form, but it's lasted longer in your results. So just wondering how the number of lawsuits that are coming in have trended through the last 3, 4 months or so? And was there an element of Florida in June in terms of adverse development and how that's changed versus maybe April and May?

佛罗里达州的情况也是如此，我认为从总的形式来看，诉讼数量上升在某种程度上是意料之中的，但从你们的结果来看，诉讼持续的时间更长。所以我想知道，在过去 3、4 个月左右的时间里，诉讼数量的变化趋势如何？6月份佛罗里达州是否有不利发展的因素，与4、5月份相比有什么变化？

Gary Traicoff 加里-崔可夫

Yes. So that's a good question. So with respect to Florida overall, obviously, the big hit occurred March, April, May. And we've started to see it level out in what's been coming through. Most of June really related to the actuarial adjustments that we took from the reserve reviews primarily related to property damage, third-party fixing cars. So Florida had a very little impact from what we had from the June development.

是的，这是个好问题。就佛罗里达州的整体情况而言，很明显，3、4、5 月份是重灾区。而我们已经开始看到它趋于平稳。六月份的大部分时间都与精算调整有关，我们从准备金审查中得出的精算调整主要与财产损失、第三方修车有关。因此，佛罗里达州对我们 6 月份的发展影响很小。

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Yes. And all I would say in addition to that is as soon as the House Bill 837 went through, and then we had the subsequent lawsuits that I talked about, we went in and were pretty aggressive and conservative because we were trying to figure out what was estimable and probable. And that will develop over time as those also get settled. So that's not something that we'll know right away because those take a little bit longer to settle.

是的。我还想补充的是，一旦众议院法案837通过，然后我们有了我提到的随后的诉讼，我们进入并表现得相当积极和保守，因为我们试图弄清楚什么是可估算和可能的。随着这些诉讼逐渐解决，情况会随着时间的推移而发展。所以我们不会立即知道这些情况，因为它们需要更长的时间来解决。

Operator 操作员

The next question comes from David Motemaden with Evercore.

下一个问题来自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

I just had a follow-up on the reserves. Gary, you had mentioned that you can adjust up to 100% of your reserve balance monthly. I'm just wondering if that happened in June. Or was it a normal review where you maybe did 60 to 70 reviews, but not a complete review? And we have to wait for potential further movement upwards or downwards as we move forward over the next few months?

我想跟进一下储备金的问题。加里，你曾提到你可以每月调整储备金余额的 100%。我想知道六月份是否发生过这种情况。还是说这是一次正常的审查，你可能做了 60 到 70 次审查，但不是一次完整的审查？在接下来的几个月里，我们还需要等待可能的进一步上调或下调吗？

Gary Traicoff 加里-崔可夫

Yes. Good question. So in June, it was the typical 25% to 30% of reserves that were looked at. The comment related to the 100% kind of goes to the part on the reviews that we do not look at in the month. They still will be inflated or unless -- particularly if they're below the threshold, they will be inflated. And they also will be aged.

是的。好问题。所以在6月份，通常是25%到30%的准备金被审查。关于100%的评论有点类似于我们那个月不审查的部分。它们仍然会被膨胀，除非——特别是如果它们低于阈值，它们会被膨胀。它们也会被老化。

They also can change. For example, they become plaintiff attorney rep, et cetera. So the potential every month to have 100% of the reserves adjusted somewhat whether it's by an adjuster or whether it's by inflation or aging exists. In terms of our normal process, we typically stay pretty consistent with that 25% to 30%.

它们也可能发生变化。例如，它们变成了原告律师代表等。因此，每个月都有可能对100%的准备金进行某种程度的调整，无论是通过理算员还是通过通货膨胀或老化。就我们正常的流程而言，我们通常保持相当一致的25%到30%。

I would say the only couple of times we might deviate, in December, in particular, because I'm the opining actuary for the statutory reserves. If we are seeing additional information, we may add a review or 2 to make sure that the statutory companies are in the correct position as of year-end. And then, obviously, for something like Florida when the House Bill passes, we would go in immediately with new information from that and do an adjustment.

我想说的是，我们唯一几次可能会有偏差，特别是在 12 月份，因为我是法定储备金的意见精算师。如果我们看到额外的信息，我们可能会增加一两次审查，以确保法定公司在年底时处于正确的位置。然后，很明显，像佛罗里达这样的情况，当众议院法案通过后，我们会立即根据新的信息进行调整。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Got it. So I guess -- so in the June review, it sounds -- so I guess you just confirmed that was just 25% to 30% and maybe some other adjustments around the edges, but it wasn't one of those full comprehensive reviews.

明白了所以我猜 -- 所以在六月份的审查中，听起来 -- 所以我猜你刚刚确认，只是 25% 到 30%，也许还有一些其他的边缘调整，但这并不是那种全面的综合审查。

Gary Traicoff 加里-崔可夫

Yes, that's correct. 是的，没错。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Great. And then just my second question, so I believe there was a stylized example just given about the mix of business and how having less new business, more renewal business can have an impact. I guess how quickly can that have an impact on the combined ratio, particularly considering the growth that you guys had in the first quarter? Is that something where that mix can change significantly through the end of this year?

很好。我的第二个问题是，我相信刚才已经举了一个典型的例子，说明业务组合以及新业务减少、续保业务增加会产生什么影响。我想这对综合比率的影响有多大，尤其是考虑到你们第一季度的增长情况？到今年年底，业务组合是否会发生重大变化？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

I'll let Jim talk about that a little bit. Obviously, there's a lot more that goes into it than just the acquisition expense. A lot has to do with losses, and there could be uncertainty around catastrophes, et cetera. But Jim, do you want to talk a little bit about that?

我会让Jim稍微谈谈这个问题。显然，其中涉及的内容远不止获取费用。很多都与损失有关，而且可能会有关于灾难等方面的不确定性，等等。但是Jim，你想不想稍微谈谈这个问题？

Jim Curtis 吉姆-柯蒂斯

Sure. Also a good question. A couple of ways to think about that. There's several dimensions to consider when thinking about mix. So to your point about any type of lag function when we write business, it's in written premium, but doesn't necessarily hit our earned premium mix until it starts to age or get into the policy term.

当然。这也是一个好问题。关于混合的问题，可以从几个角度来考虑。在考虑混合时，有几个维度需要考虑。所以针对你提到的任何类型的滞后函数，当我们写业务时，它是以书面保费的形式存在的，但并不一定立即体现在我们的已赚保费混合中，直到它开始老化或进入保单期限。

So we would see on a 6-month basis, roughly 3 to 4 months later, where you start to see your earned premium mix shift. That would work in both ways, periods of growth on new business apps and periods of slowing our new business apps.

所以我们可以预见，在大约3到4个月后的6个月基础上，你会开始看到你的已赚保费混合发生变化。这在两种情况下都适用，无论是在新业务应用的增长期，还是在我们新业务应用的放缓期。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

The one thing I would add to that, just for clarification, we expensed advertising in the period incurred. So all -- on a direct basis, especially -- and you're seeing that come through the expense ratio very quickly.

我想补充说明的一点是，我们将广告费用计入发生期间。因此，所有的 -- 直接的，尤其是 -- 你会很快看到费用率的变化。

Jim Curtis 吉姆-柯蒂斯

Yes, I would -- and I would build on that, that the expense does hit immediately. The earned premium mix would -- really would start to see some measure of reaction in our indemnity performance.

是的，我想--而且我想在此基础上，费用确实会立即产生影响。已赚保费组合会 -- 确实会开始在一定程度上对我们的赔偿业绩产生影响。

Operator 操作员

The next question comes from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

下一个问题来自高盛集团的亚历克斯-斯科特（Alex Scott）。

Taylor Scott 泰勒-斯科特

First one I had is on the commentary that you guys gave on the lifetime combined ratios. And it just strikes me is a lot of that is very geared towards what the lifetime ends up being. And appreciate that you guys probably have the best data and best capability to analyze it, too. But are we at a period of time where just given how unprecedented it is, with inflation and all the pricing, I mean how much room is there around the estimates that you guys are putting into the lifetime?

我的第一个问题是你们对终生综合比率的评论。我的感觉是，很多评论都是针对终生的最终结果的。我很感激你们可能拥有最好的数据和最好的分析能力。但是，我们是否处于这样一个时期，考虑到通货膨胀和所有定价都是前所未有的，我的意思是，你们对保险期限的估计有多大的空间？

I mean, are you being conservative around potentially significantly higher churn as we kind of get through this period where everything is being taken out to market on a much more consistent basis? And how much is that being incorporated into your decision as to whether to start growing quickly or not?

我的意思是，当我们度过这个时期，所有产品都将更稳定地推向市场时，你们对可能出现的更高流失率是否持保守态度？你们在决定是否开始快速增长时，在多大程度上考虑了这一点？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Well, I think we always -- each data point. And as we get more confidence, of course, we were able to do that. We saw an increase in PLE on both the 12 months and 3 months. I'd like to see a couple more data points because there's a lot of shopping in the industry. And obviously, you're looking at the same data we are from the industry, and there's a lot from movement from rates. So I would say there's hundreds of variables that we look at when we think about that. And we'll continue to do so, again, in this uncertain environment. Jim, do you want to add anything?

好的，我认为我们总是——每个数据点。随着我们获得更多的信心，当然，我们能够做到这一点。我们在12个月和3个月的PLE上都看到了增长。我想看到更多的几个数据点，因为行业中有很多购物行为。显然，你和我们一样在看行业数据，而且有很多来自费率的变动。所以我会说，当我们考虑这个问题时，我们要考虑数百个变量。在这个不确定的环境中，我们将继续这样做。Jim，你还有什么要补充的吗？

Jim Curtis 吉姆-柯蒂斯

Sure. We also consider different time periods and just typical when looking at data set, longer time period, more credibility and more confidence we have. We'll look at recent time period as just a leading indicator adjust slowly. My team set sort of our permissible acquisition as an example, and we just go through that exact process.

当然，我们也会考虑不同的时间段，在查看数据集时，时间段越长，可信度越高，信心越强。我们会把最近一段时间作为一个领先指标，慢慢调整。我的团队以我们允许的收购为例，制定了相应的流程。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

I would just quickly add is that we're not writing a 4-year policy at once, right? We constantly adjust rates to ensure we're hitting our lifetime targets. So to the extent that we have those targets, every renewal of every policy, and we have an advantage with a mix of 6 months policies that we can adjust as we see another card or see another data point in loss costs, et cetera.

我补充一点，我们并不是一次性写入一个4年的保单，对吧？我们不断调整费率以确保我们达到我们的终身目标。因此，在我们有这些目标的情况下，每个保单的每次续保，我们都有优势，因为我们有6个月保单的混合，我们可以在看到另一张卡片或看到损失成本等另一个数据点时进行调整。

终身承保的假设是经不起推敲的，喜欢走钢丝的不明白这里的问题。

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Have you seen that with how nimble we've been with our pricing over the year? As we've seen things we've made changes. We are as anxious as likely our shareholders to grow. But again, we have a very specific core value of profit on a calendar year 96. And so that's a priority.

这一年来，我们的定价是多么灵活，你看到了吗？我们已经看到了一些变化。我们和我们的股东一样迫切希望实现增长。但同样，我们有一个非常明确的核心价值，那就是在 96 个日历年度内实现利润。因此，这是我们的首要任务。

Taylor Scott 泰勒-斯科特

Got it. That's helpful. The follow-up I had is on the loss adjustment side of things. I mean some of the anecdotal chatter, I've heard out there is that just given where the labor markets are and so forth that the claims adjusting process might be challenged by that and being able to get the right amount of hires and talent and to be able to execute that process like it's done normally.

明白了。这很有帮助。我接下来的问题是关于损失调整方面。我的意思是，我听到的一些传言是，鉴于目前的劳动力市场等情况，索赔调整过程可能会受到挑战，包括能否聘请到合适的人才和执行通常的索赔处理过程。

And are you -- have you experienced any of that? Is that at all a challenge that you face in trying to get the reserves in the right spot consistently? Or is that something that's less of an issue at this point?

你有过这样的经历吗？这是否是你在尝试将储备始终放在正确位置时所面临的挑战？或者说，目前这个问题已经不那么严重了？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

I think it's a little bit less of an issue. I think anytime you have the growth we've had and with the labor environment that has been around for a couple of years, it's a challenge. I will say at this juncture, we are fully staffed in our claims organization. So we feel really great about that and turnover is continuing to go down.

我认为问题不大。我认为，无论何时，只要我们有这样的增长，再加上几年来的劳动力环境，这都是一个挑战。我想说的是，在这个时刻，我们的理赔机构已经满员。因此，我们对此感觉非常好，人员流动率也在持续下降。

That said, our tenure is still low. And so with that comes just the learning curve from that. And our Claims President is having the newer people definitely are in the office with supervisors because that's really where you learn a lot and you get up to speed very quickly, and we have a lot of processes in order to do that.

尽管如此，我们的任期仍然很短。因此，学习曲线也随之而来。我们的索偿总裁让新人在办公室里与主管一起工作，因为在那里你可以学到很多东西，很快就能上手，为此我们制定了很多流程。

But I would say, if you asked me that a year ago, it would be a different answer than today. I feel confident in our claims organization, the action they're taking. And as tenure continues to grow, I think we'll be in a great position for accuracy.

但我想说的是，如果你一年前问我这个问题，答案会与今天不同。我对我们的理赔机构和他们采取的行动充满信心。随着保有量的不断增长，我认为我们将在准确性方面处于有利地位。

Operator 操作员

The next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。

Joshua Shanker 约书亚-尚克

Yes. I guess my question is for Jim. Looking at the new cohort acquisition cost ratio, can you talk a little bit about how the current period with ambient shopping in the last meeting to reach new customers with advertising to get them onboarding affects the way you look at that new cohort margin?

是的。我想我的问题是给Jim的。考虑到新客户获取成本比率，你能谈谈当前期间的购物环境，以及上次会议中通过广告吸引新客户并让他们加入，这如何影响你对新客户群体利润率的看法吗？

Jim Curtis 吉姆-柯蒂斯

Sure. We measure that by our permissible compared to actual. Actual is defined as our media spend or consumer marketing spend and income and volume apps, with what we believe to be as a sort of heightened dislocation in the marketplace, a lot of shopping, which we hold our conversion level that will drive our cost per sale down. And so in the current period, we'd be pretty efficient. And then it's a matter of managing our media budget to our calendar year position.

当然。我们通过可允许成本与实际成本的比较来衡量这一点。实际成本定义为我们的媒体支出或消费者市场营销支出以及收入和应用量，鉴于我们认为市场出现了一定程度的错位，有很多购物行为，我们保持了我们的转化水平，这将降低我们的每次销售成本。因此，在当前时期，我们的效率相当高。然后，就是管理我们的媒体预算以符合我们的日历年位置。

Joshua Shanker 约书亚-尚克

And I realize how valuable the 96 calendar year is to the company. Is there a risk that right now, there's an opportunity to acquire new customers at a cost far below the long-term average and by focusing on the 96, there's a lot of growth being forgone that ultimately will be more expensive to achieve in the future?

我明白96年的综合比率对公司有多重要。现在是否有一种风险，即目前有机会以远低于长期平均水平的成本获取新客户，而专注于96年，可能会错失很多增长机会，而这些机会最终在未来实现的成本会更高？

这个问题很好，这个人在跟踪PGR的人中属于比较认真的。

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Josh, that's a great question, one we obviously ask ourselves. And in fact, I was recently onboarding a new director on our Board. And I let her know that are, in my mind, as I lead the organization, there are 2 things that are sacrosanct here: our 5 core values at our 96 calendar year combined ratio.

乔希，这是一个很好的问题，我们显然也问过自己。事实上，我最近正在为董事会的一位新董事进行入职培训。我让她知道，在我的心目中，在我领导组织的过程中，有两件事情是神圣不可侵犯的：我们的五大核心价值和我们 96 个日历年的综合比率。

So I'm going to -- this is going to be a longer answer, but I think it's one that a lot of the -- a lot of your analysts -- the analysts have asked Doug. And so I think it's worth the time for -- just me to walk through a little bit how we think about this on the profit side, the growth side and the capital side.

所以我要 -- 这将是一个较长的回答，但我认为这是很多 -- 你们的很多分析师 -- 分析师都问过道格的问题。因此，我认为值得花点时间，让我从利润、增长和资本三个方面谈谈我们是如何考虑这个问题的。

So let me first begin by reiterating our core values and, of course, one is profit -- public in 1971. And ever since that date, it's been publicly talked about, probably prior to that, I just don't have the evidence in writing. But like all our other core values, profits, it's not a value of convenience, where we look to waver from it depending on the business. It's really how we guide our business.

因此，让我首先重申我们的核心价值观，当然，其中之一就是利润 -- 1971 年公开的。从那时起，它就一直被公开谈论，也许在此之前，我没有书面证据。但是，与我们所有其他的核心价值观一样，利润并不是一个方便的价值观，我们不会根据业务的发展而动摇它。这是我们指导业务的真正方式。

It's an all-in number. We don't manage to an underlying even though that's obviously something we look at, but it can't be exclusive of catastrophes or adverse development or reserve development of any kind because that's part of being the business of insurance. How it reads -- it's our profit core value states. We have a responsibility to ourselves, our customers, agents and investors to be a profitable and enduring company by offering products and services consumers value. It's part of what makes and has made Progressive so successful. We inject the discipline of putting profits before growth, and we've built a business that has delivered better than industry results consistently for a very long time.

这是一个综合数字。我们不对基础数据进行管理，尽管这显然是我们要关注的，但它不能排除巨灾、不利发展或任何形式的准备金发展，因为这是保险业务的一部分。这就是我们的利润核心价值。我们对自己、我们的客户、代理人和投资者负有责任，通过为消费者提供物有所值的产品和服务，成为一家盈利且经久不衰的公司。这也是 Progressive 取得成功的原因之一。我们注入了将利润置于增长之上的纪律，我们已经建立了一个长期持续提供优于行业业绩的企业。

保险公司自己不能赌未来的不确定，这样回答更简洁。

That consistency in which we've been able to deliver on our profit target is a significant part of the share price multiples we enjoy today. Like now when profits are under pressure, we take action quickly and aggressively. And by taking action quickly and aggressively, we not only meet our targets, we've also put business that reaches or exceeds our goals and deflect business that doesn't.

我们能够始终如一地实现利润目标，这也是我们今天享有股价倍数的重要原因。就像现在，当利润面临压力时，我们会迅速采取积极行动。通过快速、积极地采取行动，我们不仅实现了目标，还使业务达到或超过了我们的目标，并转移了未达到目标的业务。

You might remember, because you've been around for a while, over 7 years ago when I took over this role, I took the opportunity to publicly commit to some objectives that we've written about for years. And I just want to take a moment to reiterate one of those. It's outlined in our annual report in our policy section, but I think it's worth repeating.

你可能还记得，因为你已经在这里工作了一段时间，7 年多前，当我接手这个职位时，我曾借此机会公开承诺了一些我们多年来一直在讨论的目标。我只想花点时间重申其中的一个目标。在我们的年度报告中，我们的政策部分对其进行了概述，但我认为值得重复。

For us, a 96 combined ratio is not a solve for variable in our business model equation, but rather a constant that provides direction to each product and marketing decision and a cultural shipping point that ensures 0 ambiguity as to how to act in certain situations. Set at a level we believe create a fair balance between attractive profitability and consumer competitiveness, it's deeply ingrained and central to our culture.

对我们来说，96 的综合比率并不是我们商业模式等式中的一个解变量，而是一个常数，它为每一个产品和营销决策提供了方向，也是一个文化航点，确保在某些情况下如何行动不会模糊不清。我们认为，将综合比率设定在一个水平上，可以在有吸引力的盈利能力和消费者竞争力之间实现公平的平衡，它已深深扎根于我们的企业文化之中。

跟数字化经营是一致的，有利于执行，但也有负面影响，赚的不够，不利于提供更有价值的产品，苹果、微软、Google一直提升毛利率，这个产品一直就赚4分钱，那么它有没有变得更好？

I can't really stress that enough. It's part of the fabric of our culture and really embedded in everything we do along with the other 4 core values. It's true our published accident year ratios are lower than the calendar year ratios and closer to our targets. However, that's the moment in time. And I really have said several times in prior calls that uncertainty is a new normal since the onset of the pandemic, and that remains true today.

这一点我怎么强调都不为过。它是我们文化结构的一部分，与其他 4 项核心价值观一起真正融入了我们所做的一切。诚然，我们公布的事故年比率低于日历年比率，更接近我们的目标。然而，这只是时间问题。在之前的电话会议中，我曾多次说过，自大流行病爆发以来，不确定性是一种新常态，如今依然如此。

So for us, growing fast in an uncertain future, before profit is addressed it's a recipe for sustained profit pain. Many insurance companies make this misstep, and we don't intend to repeat those mistakes. But let me go to growth because I think that's the story that we're not hearing enough as well.

因此，对于我们来说，在不确定的未来快速发展，在利润问题得到解决之前，就会造成持续的利润损失。许多保险公司都犯了这个错误，我们不打算重蹈覆辙。但让我谈谈增长，因为我认为这也是我们听得不够多的故事。

保险公司自己不能参与赌博。

I wanted to remind everyone of the significant growth we've had in the first half of 2023. In 6 months, we've added 2.2 million policies in force. And we've increased written premiums by over $5 billion, and that's the equivalent of adding a top 10 Personal Auto carrier. So I would say growth this year could be defined as spectacular.

我想提醒大家我们在2023年上半年的显著增长。在6个月内，我们增加了220万份有效保单。我们的书面保费增加了超过50亿美元，这相当于增加了一个排名前十的个人汽车保险承运商。所以我想说，今年的成长可以被定义为壮观的。

Ambient shopping, and you brought that up, does remain elevated. Our agency channel is actually the best barometer for industry shopping levels because it's less affected by media expenditures. And that channel quotes were up about 16% in the quarter. If we had perfect knowledge about the future and knew that we, for sure, had adequate rates, undoubtedly, there's opportunity for significant growth today.

你提到的 "环境购物 "确实保持了较高的水平。我们的代理渠道实际上是行业购物水平的最佳晴雨表，因为它受媒体支出的影响较小。本季度，该渠道的报价上涨了约 16%。如果我们对未来有充分的了解，知道我们肯定有足够的费率，那么毫无疑问，现在就有机会实现大幅增长。

But that said, growth opportunities today do not preclude the possibility of growth opportunities tomorrow. You've probably watched in the past, and we've taken rates and other underwriting actions to focus on achieving our profitability goal. We've proven to be better positioned for strong growth in the following periods: 2022 was among the worst years for industry Personal Auto profitability and so far, 2023 has been worse.

但是话说回来，今天的增长机会并不妨碍明天的增长机会。你们可能在过去看到过，我们采取了费率和其他承保行动，专注于实现我们的利润目标。我们已经证明，我们为接下来的时期做好了强劲增长的准备：2022年是个人汽车保险行业盈利能力最差的年份之一，到目前为止，2023年的情况更糟。

While we can't know the future, current market conditions suggest there'll be opportunity to increase market share in the future. And then just let me wrap up by saying growth can't happen without growing surplus. Our capital position today is strong, and we believe we have plenty of capital to support the premium growth we expect.

虽然我们无法预知未来，但目前的市场状况表明，未来将有机会扩大市场份额。最后，我想说，没有盈余的增长，就不可能有增长。我们现在的资本状况很好，我们相信我们有充足的资本支持我们预期的保费增长。

We have a structured growth business that is largely self-funding internally through underwriting profits and investment returns. So to bring us back full circle, our profit core value is the key to sustained growth. I know that was a long answer, but I think it's really important to be super clear and unambiguous about how we think about the business. I hope that answered your question, and hopefully, others.

我们的增长业务结构合理，主要通过承保利润和投资收益实现内部自筹资金。因此，回过头来看，我们的利润核心价值是持续增长的关键。我知道这是一个很长的答案，但我认为非常重要的一点是，我们要非常清楚、明确地了解我们是如何看待业务的。我希望这回答了你的问题，也希望回答了其他人的问题。

这是保险公司值得投资的地方，投入的资金不会浪费，另一方面，大型科技公司已经走出另外一种模式，大型科技公司的能力没有反映在资产负债表上。

Operator 操作员

The next question comes from Greg Peters with Raymond James.

下一个问题来自雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司的格雷格-彼得斯。

Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯

I'm going to start building upon the comments you just had about the growth results and Jim's cohort pricing. I'm wondering if you can provide us a perspective of how the limits profile of your consolidated order book have changed. I would imagine if you're focused more on Robinsons, the profile is moving up. But maybe you could give us an updated perspective on how that looks and where you think it might be heading.

我将基于您刚刚关于增长结果和Jim的群体定价的评论，开始构建一些观点。我想知道您是否能提供关于您合并订单簿限额概况变化的视角。我想，如果您更专注于罗宾逊（Robinsons，这里可能指的是高价值客户），概况可能正在上升。但也许您可以给我们一个更新的视角，说明它看起来如何，以及您认为它可能的发展方向。

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Yes, I think you're spot on. We are trying to have more and more of the Dianes, Wrights and Robinsons. We love Sams as long as we can make our target profit margin, but we continue to increase our bundle. And as we think about both auto and property, those bundles are more important. So we've increased our Robinsons over time. And then, of course, we've talked about this in the past, and it's probably worth an update at some point in the next couple of quarters.

是的，我认为你说得很对。我们正试图拥有越来越多的 Dianes、Wrights 和 Robinsons。只要我们能实现目标利润率，我们就会喜欢 Sams，但我们会继续增加捆绑销售。在我们考虑汽车和房产的时候，这些捆绑销售更加重要。因此，随着时间的推移，我们增加了罗宾逊。当然，我们过去也讨论过这个问题，也许在未来几个季度的某个时候值得更新一下。

The soon-to-be Robinsons. So it could be a Diane that's buying a house, et cetera. So we'll continue to try to be a place for every cohort, but we have increased our Robinsons profile in the last several years. And of course, during times like this, Sams are going to shop more because they're very incented by price.

即将成为罗宾森一家 The soon -to -be Robinsons.所以可能是要买房子的黛安，等等。因此，我们将继续努力为每个群体提供一个购物场所，但在过去的几年里，我们已经增加了罗宾逊的形象。当然，在这样的时期，山姆们会更多地购物，因为他们很受价格的诱惑。

Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯

Right. I guess -- well, I guess what I'm wondering is, in the cohort pricing, there's an assumption around retention. And given that there's all these price changes happening, not only at Progressive, but with a lot of other companies in the auto sector, I'm wondering how with elevated shopping, how those retention characteristics are holding out at the Robinson level, at the right level? Is it matching what your expectations are? Or is that causing some hiccups along your pricing assumptions?

好吧。我想--嗯，我想知道的是，在同类定价中，有一个关于保有量的假设。考虑到所有这些价格变化，不仅是Progressive，还有汽车行业的很多其他公司，我想知道，随着购物量的增加，这些保有量特征是如何在罗宾逊水平、在正确的水平上保持下来的？是否符合你们的预期？或者说，这是否会导致你们的定价假设出现一些问题？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Well, I think -- we don't talk about retention with each of the profiles of our consumers, the marketing tiers. But we do look over time. And historically, Robinsons have fared better. And we find that the more products you have, the stickier you're going to be. And Sams, especially if there's other characteristics to go, can -- last about the same months and haven't varied too much over the years. But although we don't share it, I would say Robinsons continue to be stickier.

好的，我认为——我们不针对我们消费者的每个营销层级讨论留存率。但我们会随时间观察。历史上，罗宾逊（Robinsons，这里可能指的是高价值客户）的表现更好。我们发现，你拥有的产品越多，你的粘性就越大。至于山姆（Sams，这里可能指的是普通客户），特别是如果有其他特征的话，可以——持续大约相同的月份，而且多年来并没有太大变化。但尽管我们不分享这些信息，我会说罗宾逊的粘性继续更强。

PGR有向高端发展的倾向。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Great. I just -- we are constantly looking at the assumption to go into our acquisition model. As Jim was mentioning, we use PLE to understand the permissible costs for acquiring customers, and we do that at a very granular level. So you're right. There have been significant changes in policy life expectancy.

好的，我只是——我们一直在不断地审视我们的获取模型中的假设。正如Jim所提到的，我们使用PLE来理解获取客户的可允许成本，并且我们在这方面做得非常细致。所以你是对的。保单寿命预期已经发生了显著变化。

Obviously, lately, it has been going back up, and we're looking at that at a very granular level and pricing that in over the lifetime of those customers. And to pass point, we have many shots at pricing -- repricing those customers, if necessary.

很明显，最近它又开始上升了，我们正在非常细化的层面上进行研究，并在这些客户的整个生命周期内进行定价。如果有必要，我们还可以对这些客户重新定价。

Operator 操作员

The next question comes from Tracy Bunguigui with Barclays.

下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Bunguigui。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Just a quick follow-up on your 96% combined ratio target. I appreciate all the commentary so far. But I'm just wondering, do you feel like there are secular changes going on in auto that you may need to do better than 96%? Like it feels like the tail is lengthening, which is happening for property damage despite it being a short tail line, which could add to volatility.

关于您提到的96%的综合比率目标，我非常感谢到目前为止的所有评论。但我只是在想，您是否觉得汽车行业正在进行一些长期变化，您可能需要做得比96%更好？感觉尾部正在延长，尽管它是短期责任线，但尾部延长可能会增加波动性。

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Well, good question, Tracy. You remember our 96 is an aggregate. So we look at it differently for new business, renewal business. We've taken to the assumptions of our PLE products, state, although it all goes up to 96, which I don't think will change. One, thing, we do look at a really granular level; and two, I think we want to watch this playthrough because some of these changes came about pretty quickly in the delays.

问得好，特蕾西。你要记住，我们的 96% 是一个总和。因此，我们对新业务和续保业务有不同的看法。我们对我们的 PLE 产品进行了假设，尽管它都上升到 96，但我认为这不会改变。其一，我们看的是一个非常细化的层面；其二，我认为我们要观察这个过程，因为有些变化在延迟中很快就出现了。

And a lot of it is really the shop capacity. And as that starts to open up with the exception of what I talked about with labor rates and probably prices, I think we could be priced adequately and continue to keep our 96 calendar year and lifetime goal. That would be my approach.

很多问题实际上与修车店的产能有关。随着产能的逐渐开放，除了我提到的劳动力成本和可能的价格问题之外，我认为我们可以合理定价，并继续维持我们的96日历年和终身目标。这将是我的方法。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Okay. Your year-to-date current accident year actuarial adjustments of $424 million was primarily driven by fixing vehicle coverages. So how do I reconcile that update with your property damage severity loss trend going down when you come up with your loss picks? Like you reported yesterday, property damage severity is 11%. But if I compare that to 1Q, it was 15% and then 20% in the full year '22.

好的。你们今年迄今为止的当前事故年度的精算调整为4.24亿美元，主要是由确定车辆保险覆盖范围所驱动的。那么，当你们确定损失选择时，我该如何将这次更新与你们的财产损害严重性损失趋势下降相调和？就像你们昨天报告的，财产损害严重性是11%。但如果我将其与1季度的15%以及2022年全年的20%相比较呢？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Well, we had a lot of rate increases come in, so that was one of them. And a lot of our property, if you take -- if you look at the property and the cat load on top of it or the -- I should say, the cats we've had, you can take that into account. But it is -- that 80% of that, I think you did the quarterly number, but 80% of that $1.1 billion on the year-to-date was auto, 50% was cars, about 35-ish percent was Florida, glass, PIP, BI. And then the rest was IBNR and BI across the country, but property did not -- did develop favorably. Gary, do you want to add anything?

我们实施了很多费率上调，这是其中之一。如果我们考虑财产保险以及上面的巨灾负荷，或者说我们所经历的巨灾，你可以将这些考虑在内。但是，我认为你们计算的是季度数字，但80%的11亿美元是汽车保险，其中50%是车辆损失，大约35%是佛罗里达州的玻璃、个人伤害保护（PIP）、身体伤害（BI）。剩下的是全国范围的未报告索赔和身体伤害保险，但财产保险确实发展得比较有利。Gary，你还有什么要补充的吗？

Gary Traicoff 加里-崔可夫

So I think Tricia's spot on there. The one thing I would add, Tracy, to your point, the property damage severity that you're showing, that's for all claims, if we stratified and only looked at the reopen severity, which is really where the reserve actual adjustments have come from. The reopen severity is well above and has been increasing over those quarters relative to the 13%, 14% you're seeing.

所以我认为特里西娅说得很对。特蕾西，我想补充一点，你所显示的财产损失严重程度是针对所有索赔的，如果我们进行分层，只看重新开业的严重程度，这才是储备金实际调整的真正来源。相对于你看到的 13%、14%，重新开业的严重程度远高于这几个季度，而且一直在增加。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Okay. Yes. Sorry, I meant in your current loss pick, your current -- your actuarial adjustment, not the $22 million adjustments. Are you considering a higher loss pick for property damage or not given that -- it feels like that loss trend is trending down?

好的对不起，我指的是你目前的损失选择，你目前的--你的精算调整，而不是2,200万美元的调整。鉴于损失趋势呈下降趋势，你们是否考虑提高财产损失选择？

Gary Traicoff 加里-崔可夫

Yes. We are. So I think to your point, even though the overall is trending down some, the reopen severity, we believe, on the current accident year has been trending up. And so a lot of those actuarial adjustments, both on prior and current year are reflecting the elevated reopen severity. Even though, to your point, the overall has come down, that is a different trend if you just look at only the reopen severity, which is really what's driving a lot of the reserves.

好的，我们确实注意到了。所以我认为，即使总体趋势有所下降，当前事故年度的重新开放严重性（reopen severity）我们认为一直在上升。因此，很多精算调整，无论是对以前年度还是当前年度，都反映了重新开放严重性的提高。即使总体上有所下降，如果你只看重新开放的严重性，那实际上是一个不同的趋势，这才是真正推动许多准备金变动的因素。

Operator 操作员

The next question comes from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

下一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 公司的 Ryan Tunis。

Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯

So Tricia, I guess just going back to the comments you were making about how in the past, you've had tons of remediation that have led to tons of outsized growth. And you referenced that you see opportunity for that in the future. Just curious from where you sit today, is there any reason to think your appetite will grow, will be different going into 2024 than it was going into 2023?

特里西娅，我想还是回到你刚才说的，在过去，你们进行了大量的修复工作，从而带来了大量的超额增长。你提到你看到了未来的机会。我只是好奇，从你今天的角度来看，是否有任何理由认为你的胃口会越来越大，到 2024 年会与 2023 年有所不同？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

As long as we look at the data and feel good about where we're at with our combined ratio on overall calendar year and accident year, we will grow as fast as we can. So that has been our objective for a long time, 96, grow as fast as we can. We want to do that. We're a growth company. We feel great about it. But again, profits over growth. But as soon as we feel confident with the little stability and less uncertainty, we are very prepared to grow.

只要我们查看数据，并对我们在整个日历年和事故年的综合比率感到满意，我们就会尽可能快地发展。这也是我们长期以来的目标，96 尽可能快地发展。我们希望做到这一点。我们是一家成长型公司。我们对此感觉很好。但还是那句话，利润高于增长。但是，只要我们对稳定和减少不确定性充满信心，我们就会做好发展的准备。

Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯

And just to be clear, like let's just say they're about -- you guys executed, but there's a bad hurricane and you ended up coming in at That wouldn't lead you to punish yourselves and not grow in January, right? You'd be looking what you think the prospective returns are.

为了明确起见，就说你们执行了计划，但飓风来袭，结果你们的收益率只有 1%，这不会导致你们惩罚自己，不在 1 月份实现增长，对吗？你们会考虑自己的预期回报。

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Yes. Yes. We don't know how the next 6 months will go. We're going to do the best we can. But again, like you said, if something happens, that is above and beyond that would be different. But yes, we will continue to grow. And in 2024 would be a new year as long as we felt that we had the policies on the book that we believe are at or below our new and renewal targets.

是的是的我们不知道接下来的六个月会怎样我们会尽力而为。但同样，就像你说的，如果发生了什么事，那就不一样了。但是，我们会继续发展。只要我们认为账面上的保单达到或低于我们的新目标和续保目标，2024 年就会是新的一年。

Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯

Got it. And then just lastly, we've talked about the impact of the [indiscernible] stuff on prior year. Is there any way to quantify the loss ratio impact did that happen in the first half of 2023 -- on the current accident year?

明白了。最后，我们谈到了[无法辨别]事件对上一年度的影响。有没有办法量化2023年上半年发生的事故对当前事故年度损失率的影响？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

From Florida, you mean? 你是说从佛罗里达来的？

Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯

Correct. 正确。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

The current accident year, the impact was virtually 0 because those are lawsuits that are opening on claims that occurred pre-HB837. It can't be now because HB837 was in March. So there's some, but predominantly, those were prior year claims. We're also looking closely at what we expect to be some benefit in the environment from HB837 as well. We're looking at the data closely. It will take a while to assess if indeed, we are seeing that. But we personally -- we believe that there is going to be a benefit, and we look forward to pricing in once we see it.

本事故年的影响几乎为零，因为这些诉讼是针对 HB837 法案颁布前发生的索赔而提起的。不可能是现在，因为 HB837 法案是在三月份提出的。所以有一些，但主要是前一年的索赔。我们也在密切关注 HB837 对环境的影响。我们正在密切关注这些数据。我们需要一段时间来评估我们是否确实看到了这一点。但我们个人相信，这将会带来好处，我们期待着在看到好处后进行定价。

Operator 操作员

The next question comes from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔

A lot of questions on the 96, so I'll pile on here. So if I understand correctly, you're still within line of sight, being close to 96 for this calendar year. One of the ways you can achieve that is by lowering new business growth, which ultimately should improve the combined ratio. I guess my question is, and maybe it's the other side of Josh's question earlier, ultimately, can you achieve that simply by lowering the new business growth while achieving kind of a 96 combined ratio for cohorts?

关于 96 的问题很多，所以我就在这里多说几句。所以，如果我理解正确的话，你们仍在视线范围内，今年的综合比率接近 96。实现这一目标的方法之一是降低新业务增长，最终提高综合比率。我想我的问题是，也许这也是乔希之前所提问题的另一面，最终，你们能否通过降低新业务增长来实现这一目标，同时达到 96%的综合比率？

Or do you now need -- or are you aiming to achieve a better than 96 for existing cohorts in order to get to the 96 will be as close to the 96 for the year.

或者说，你们现在是否需要 -- 或者说，你们的目标是否是使现有学生的成绩优于 96 分，以便达到 96 分，并尽可能接近当年的 96 分。

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

Well, we clearly need to get a rate. So that's one part of the formula. We also have really had a lot of restrictions from an underwriting perspective. on new business. And so those are some other things that go into it. We have a line of sight, but again, we'll caveat that by all the comments regarding uncertainty that I've said before.

那么，我们显然需要得到一个比率。所以这是公式的一部分。从承保的角度来看，我们对新业务也有很多限制。因此，这些都是其他一些因素。我们有一个视线，但我们还是要提醒大家注意我之前说过的所有关于不确定性的评论。

Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔

Okay. But ultimately, do you believe that beyond the kind of flexing down or up the new business growth, do you need to take any additional actions to lower the combined ratio for the existing business below 96 in order to get to a full year 96 or close to it?

好的，但归根结底，您是否认为，除了灵活降低或提高新业务增长之外，您还需要采取任何额外行动，将现有业务的综合比率降至96以下，以达到全年96或接近96？

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

So clearly, the new renewal mix is working in our favor right now. The other bigger tailwind is the rate that's earning in. So we've taken a lot of rates. We still have about 6 points in Personal Auto for that rate to earn in. Additionally, we're taking 6 more points for the rest of the year. So the denominator effect is a tailwind for us the rest of the year.

显然，新的续保混合目前对我们有利。另一个更大的顺风是正在实现的费率。所以我们已经提高了很多的费率。我们仍然有大约6个百分点的个人汽车保险费率需要实现。此外，我们还将在今年剩余时间内再提高6个百分点。因此，分母效应是今年剩余时间对我们的一个顺风。

Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔

Got it. And then my other question, maybe for Gary, since Gary is on the call. We saw an uptick in bodily injury severity this quarter. And I am curious as to how that ultimately plays out or how you think about it, how you approach that with regards to prior year reserves? Ultimately, I would think that bodily injury has a longer tail, so more risk there for things going adversely. So how do you approach that?

知道了我还有一个问题，也许是问加里的，因为加里也在电话上。我们看到本季度身体伤害严重程度有所上升。我很想知道最终结果如何，或者你们是如何考虑的，如何处理与上年储备有关的问题？归根结底，我认为人身伤害的尾部更长，因此出现不利情况的风险更大。那么，你们是如何处理的呢？

Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯

I'll start, and then Gary can weigh in. About half of the BI was actuarial reserves, but it's pretty much in line with the industry. So we're not too concerned about it. A lot of them are soft tissue, attorney rep but not litigated. So they do take longer. But I feel like we're in a good position and understand where they're headed. And I think in a better position than we were even a year ago. Gary, do you want to add anything?

我会开始，然后Gary可以补充。大约一半的身体伤害（BI）是精算准备金，但这基本上与行业保持一致。所以我们不太担心。很多是软组织损伤，有律师代表但尚未诉讼。所以它们确实需要更长的时间。但我觉得我们处于有利位置，并且明白它们的走向。我认为我们比一年前处于更好的位置。Gary，你还有什么要补充的吗？

Gary Traicoff 加里-崔可夫

Yes. I think Tricia is spot on there. The only couple of things I'd add from the reserve side is we tend to look at the data off of an accident period basis, right, as opposed to reported calendar information. The accident period data is more smooth, right, on a calendar basis, you can get some movements up or down, sometimes with changes in mix or closures, et cetera.

是的，我认为特里西娅说得很对。在储备方面，我唯一想补充的是，我们倾向于以事故期为基础查看数据，而不是报告日历信息。事故期间的数据更平滑，对吧，在日历基础上，你可以得到一些上下浮动，有时是随着混合或关闭等的变化。

So on an accident period basis, we're a little bit lower than what that shows. The other thing what Tricia alluded to is there's some large loss mix, et cetera. If you think back to that presentation, that's one of the reasons we employ that reserve threshold. So when our claims adjusters identify those large losses, once it's above that threshold, they put that up immediately. So it's recognized in the reserves. And again, there could be a little bit a timing difference between the accident period and the calendar period, which you would see.

因此，从事故发生期来看，我们的损失比数据显示的要低一些。另外，特里西娅还提到了一些大额损失等情况。如果你回想一下刚才的介绍，这也是我们采用准备金门槛的原因之一。因此，当我们的理赔人员发现这些大额损失时，一旦超过了那个阈值，他们就会立即提高准备金。因此，这在准备金中得到了确认。同样，事故期和日历期之间可能会有一点时间差，你会看到。

Douglas Constantine 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁

We've exhausted our scheduled time, and so that concludes our event. Michelle, I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.

我们的预定时间已经用完，活动到此结束。米歇尔，下面请你致闭幕词。

Operator 操作员

That concludes the Progressive Corporation's Second Quarter Investor Event. Information about a replay of this event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.

Progressive 公司第二季度投资者活动到此结束。明年，我们将在 Progressive 网站的 "投资者关系 "栏目中提供有关本次活动的重播信息。您现在可以断开连接。

2023-08-02 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

2023-08-02 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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