What would you say is the most prevalent bear case for financial-related stocks in today’s market?
你认为当前市场上针对金融类股票最常见的看空理由是什么?
CD: We’re in an environment where people want out of banks whenever there is even a whisper of a recession, as if another financial crisis is around the corner. Forget that banks today have roughly twice the capital they had prior to the last crisis. They are also subject to Fed stress tests that require they’re well capitalized even if we have a crisis worse than the last one.
CD:当市场稍微出现衰退风声,投资者就想撤出银行股,仿佛另一场金融危机即将爆发。别忘了,如今银行的资本水平大约是上一轮危机前的两倍,而且它们还要接受美联储的压力测试,即使出现比上次更严重的危机也必须保持充足资本。
We also regularly see investors assuming the risks that were prevalent 15 years ago are the same ones to worry about today. In consumer finance, for example, because firms in the near-prime or subprime parts of the market got killed last time, the assumption is that’s where the highest risk still is.
我们也经常看到投资者认为 15 年前常见的风险今天仍然一样需要担忧。例如在消费金融领域,由于上次危机中接近优质或次级市场的公司遭受重创,人们就假设这些仍是风险最高的领域。
Our favorite financial company today is Capital One \[COF], which in both its credit card and auto lending businesses is materially exposed to less-than-prime customers. But thinking that makes it particularly vulnerable today is misplaced. Capital One has always been an excellent underwriter of risk and sailed through the financial crisis. The culture instilled by Richard Fairbank, who founded the company and still runs it, is highly disciplined and data-driven. At the same time, as so many competitors have gone upmarket it has less competition for business.
我们目前最看好的金融公司是 Capital One(股票代码 COF)。其信用卡和汽车贷款业务都显著面向非优质客户,但认为这使其在当下特别脆弱就错了。Capital One 一直是出色的风险承销商,并安然度过金融危机。公司创始人兼现任 CEO Richard Fairbank 所推行的文化高度自律且以数据驱动。与此同时,许多竞争对手向高端市场转移,使其在业务上竞争较少。

BRK从2024Q2开始减持,已经减了50%的持仓。
In this case the stock is cheap and we think that is a good indicator of the value opportunity. The shares at today’s price \[of around \$138.50] trade at 1x book value, for a company that we think can generate a mid-teens durable return on equity. Earnings can be lumpy, but at that valuation we can earn a 14-15% IRR even if the market doesn’t ever look more favorably on the stock. On a risk/return basis, this is one of the biggest disconnects in our universe.
在这种情况下,股价便宜就是价值机会的最佳信号。以目前约 138.50 美元的价格计算,Capital One 的市净率仅为 1 倍,而我们认为其可持续股本回报率可达中十几百分点。盈利虽可能波动,但按此估值,即便市场对其评价始终不变,我们也能获得 14%-15% 的内部收益率。从风险/回报角度看,这在我们的投资范围内属于最大的错位之一。
You also have a position in JPMorgan \[JPM], which has established itself as the banking gold standard in the U.S. What do you think sets it apart?
你们也持有美国银行业“黄金标准”——摩根大通(JPM)的股份。你认为它的独特之处在哪里?
CD: For some time with the Davis Financial Fund we focused on small and midsized companies. I always argued there were no economies of scale in banking. Your biggest cost was interest and your second biggest was the cost of foolishness, and a well-placed Iowa branch bank system could compete well on both of those fronts with the largest banks.
CD:多年来,Davis Financial Fund 主要关注中小型公司。我一直认为银行业不存在规模经济。最大的成本是利息,其次是“愚蠢成本”。在这两方面,一家布局合理的艾奥瓦社区银行完全可以与大型银行竞争。
ON MASTERCARD AND VISA:
关于 Mastercard 和 Visa:
To us they're almost greedy in what they take of each transaction – that makes them more ripe for disruption.
在我们看来,它们对每笔交易抽成几乎到了“贪婪”的地步——这使它们更容易被颠覆。
That has changed. As the cost of regulatory compliance soared after the financial crisis, spreading those costs over a bigger base has become a real economy of scale. Diversification across lines of business has become increasingly important. Probably most important is that scale allows spending on technology to drive competitive advantage. JPMorgan spends more on technology in a year than the asset size of all but something like the top 15 banks in the U.S.
情况已变。金融危机后合规成本飙升,将成本摊薄到更大基数上才真正形成规模经济。业务多元化愈发重要,而最关键的是规模使得在技术方面的大手笔投入成为可能。摩根大通一年的科技支出超过美国除前十五名之外所有银行的总资产。
The downside of size is that you can get bureaucracy, hubris and out-of-control overhead costs. Large banks to counter that need extraordinary management, which JPMorgan obviously has in Jamie Dimon. I first met him probably 35 years ago and I am not exaggerating when I call him one of the greatest business executives, period, over the last century.
规模带来的弊端是官僚主义、傲慢与失控的管理成本。大型银行若要克服这些,就需要卓越的管理层,而摩根大通显然拥有杰米·戴蒙。我在 35 年前认识他,毫不夸张地说,他是过去一个世纪最伟大的商业领袖之一。
So JPMorgan wins at every level. The reason it’s not our largest holding is that everybody knows this and the shares I’d say are fully valued. The stock trades at more than 2x tangible book value, which indicates the market expects the company to maintain its high-teens ROE for a long time. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable expectation, but the shares at this level are more vulnerable to bad news than many other things we own.
因此,摩根大通在各方面都胜出。它不是我们最大持仓的原因在于这一点众所周知,股价也已充分反映。该股的市净率已逾 2 倍,意味着市场预计其长期维持高十几百分点的 ROE。我不认为这不合理,但在当前价位,这只股票对坏消息更为敏感。
Describe your interest today in a much lower-profile financial, Bank of New York Mellon \[BK].
谈谈你们今天为何看好更低调的金融公司纽约梅隆银行(BK)。
CD: Unlike Capital One that is still run by its founder, Bank of New York is not run by Alexander Hamilton. Here the name is somewhat of a misnomer because this almost isn’t a bank. With banks the first risk people think about is credit risk, and Bank of New York has essentially no credit risk. It is mostly a processing company, providing all sorts of services that involve processing payments and keeping commercial assets safe. It’s sort of the plumbing system for the cities of finance and financial services.
CD:不同于仍由创始人领导的 Capital One,纽约梅隆当然不是由亚历山大·汉密尔顿掌舵。它的名字多少有些误导,因为这家公司几乎不像一家银行。人们想到银行首先会联想到信用风险,而纽约梅隆几乎没有信用风险。它主要是一家处理型公司,提供支付清算、资产托管等各种服务,是金融城市和金融服务行业的“管道系统”。
As a result it has an extremely high return on equity, well into the 20s, which it has been able to sustain for a long time. Because it isn't capital intensive it doesn’t have many ways to reinvest that equity at a high rate, so almost all the capital it generates is distributable.
因此,其股本回报率极高,长期维持在 20% 以上。由于资本密集度低,它没有太多高收益再投资渠道,所以几乎所有创造的资本都可以分配给股东。
One difference between it and other high-value processing companies like Visa and Mastercard is that while Bank of New York operates in highly concentrated competitive markets, the companies in those markets like State Street and Northern Trust still compete quite intensely on price. Returns on equity are perfectly fine, but we have always felt that there's a bit of a free option if the players competing in the market behaved more rationally in terms of pricing.
它与 Visa、Mastercard 等高价值处理公司之间有一个区别:纽约梅隆所在的市场竞争高度集中,但竞争者(如道富和北方信托)在价格上仍然激烈厮杀。虽然 ROE 表现不俗,但我们一直认为,如果市场参与者在定价上更理性一些,那么这里存在某种“免费期权”。
CD: Bank of New York doesn't have retail deposits. It doesn't have a wealth-management business. It basically holds short-term Treasuries and short-term deposits at the Federal Reserve against commercial deposits that require market interest rates. With that mix of assets and liabilities they’re able to operate with a fee-and-low-spread institutional model and there is virtually no interest-rate risk. Whenever they get into trouble it’s because management forgets that.
CD:纽约梅隆没有零售存款,也没有财富管理业务。它基本上用短期国债和在美联储的短期存款来匹配需要市场利率的公司存款。凭借这种资产负债结构,它得以采用收费+低利差的机构化模式运营,几乎不存在利率风险。每当出现问题,往往是管理层忘记了这一点。
How do you assess the threats of technological disruption here?
您如何评估技术颠覆在这一领域带来的威胁?
CD: This was certainly a very popular topic when fintech was at its apex a couple of years ago. Where you heard it most around this company was that blockchain could disrupt the custody business. If you could use blockchain technology to hold custody of your assets and keep them safe, you wouldn’t need to use somebody like Bank of New York. The interesting follow-up question to that is what does the Bank of New York charge for that service and the answer is less than one basis point, or 1/100th of a percent. There’s not a great deal to disrupt there for the incremental risk attached.
CD:在两三年前金融科技最火的时候,这的确是热门话题。围绕纽约梅隆最多的讨论是区块链可能颠覆托管业务。如果可以用区块链来托管资产并确保安全,就不必再找纽约梅隆。随之而来的问题是:纽约梅隆收这项服务费多少?答案是不足 1 个基点,也就是万分之一。以如此微薄的收费,所附加的增量风险并不足以支撑大的颠覆空间。
I would add that we don’t own Visa or Mastercard because of exactly this topic. To us they’re almost greedy in the scale of what they take of each transaction – that makes them more ripe for disruption.
我还想补充一点:正是基于这一考虑,我们没有持有 Visa 或 Mastercard 的股票。在我们看来,它们对每笔交易的抽成几乎到了“贪婪”的地步,这让它们更容易被颠覆。
Related to technology, one risk you have to get comfortable with here is cybercrime. The assets under custody are around \$45 trillion. It wouldn’t take fraud impacting even a small part of those assets to be a real problem relative to the equity value of the company.
与技术相关的另一项风险是网络犯罪。纽约梅隆托管的资产约 45 万亿美元,即便只有极小部分遭遇欺诈,相对于公司的股本价值也会造成严重问题,因此必须对此保持足够警惕。
Near their 52-week-high, how are you looking at valuation with the shares trading at around \$56?
股票接近 52 周高点、交易价约 56 美元时,你们如何看待估值?
CD: The stock today is valued at around 10× our estimate of 2024 levered owner earnings, which includes some decline in net interest income from 2023 when rates were moving up relatively fast. The stock has done fairly well over the past few months so the price to tangible book value is now around 2.4×. For a company earning a 20%-plus return on tangible common equity and paying a 3% dividend yield, our expected IRR with no change in valuation is in the 12% range. We consider that quite attractive for a business whose competitive position is so hard to dislodge.
CD:按我们对 2024 年杠杆后所有者收益的估算,目前股价约为 10 倍,该估算已计入 2023 年利率快速上行后净息差的部分回落。过去几个月股价表现不错,市净率现约为 2.4 倍。对于一家有形普通股回报率超过 20%、股息率 3% 的公司,即便估值不变,我们预期内部收益率也在 12% 左右。对这样竞争地位难以撼动的企业而言,这一回报非常吸引人。
One last question: As a board member of Berkshire Hathaway, you had the good fortune of getting to know Charlie Munger well. What comes to mind most in thinking about him since his passing?
最后一个问题:作为伯克希尔董事,你有幸与查理·芒格相识甚深。自他去世后,你对他最深的印象是什么?
CD: There are so many things that it’s hard to narrow it down. One would be his enormous stoicism and patience as an investor and as a person. It can take a very long time for things to play out and he was able to look over 10, 20, 30 and 40 year spans and still hold his conviction when he believed it was the right thing to do. That sort of foresight and resilience is very rare.
CD:有太多值得说的,很难概括。但其中一点是他作为投资者和个人所体现出的巨大克制与耐心。很多事情需要极长时间才能结果,而他能够放眼 10 年、20 年、30 年、40 年,并在自认为正确时始终坚定信念。这样的远见与韧性极为罕见。
Before investing in the Davis Funds, you should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Funds. >e prospectus and summary prospectus contains this and other information about the Funds. You can obtain performance information and a current prospectus and summary prospectus by visiting davisfunds.com or calling 800-279-0279. Please read the prospectus or summary prospectus carefully before investing or sending money. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.
在投资 Davis 基金之前,您应仔细考虑基金的投资目标、风险、费用及开支。《招募说明书》和《摘要招募说明书》包含有关基金的这些及其他信息。您可访问 davisfunds.com 或致电 800-279-0279 获取基金的业绩信息以及最新的《招募说明书》和《摘要招募说明书》。在投资或汇款前,请认真阅读《招募说明书》或《摘要招募说明书》。投资涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。
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This material includes candid statements and observations regarding investment strategies, individual securities, and economic and market conditions; however, there is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts will prove to be correct. These comments may also include the expression of opinions that are speculative in nature and should not be relied on as statements of fact.
本文材料包含对投资策略、个别证券以及经济与市场状况的坦率陈述与观察;然而,不保证这些陈述、观点或预测必定正确。文中评论亦可能包含带有推测性质的观点,不应被视为事实陈述而依赖。
Davis Advisors is committed to communicating with our investment partners as candidly as possible because we believe our investors benefit from understanding our investment philosophy and approach. Our views and opinions include “forward-looking statements” which may or may not be accurate over the long term. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words like “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” or similar expressions. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which are current as of the date of this material. We disclaim any obligation to update or alter any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. While we believe we have a reasonable basis for our appraisals and we have confidence in our opinions, actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate.
Davis Advisors 致力于尽可能坦诚地与投资伙伴沟通,因为我们相信,投资者了解我们的投资理念与方法将受益匪浅。我们的观点和意见中包含“前瞻性陈述”,这些陈述在长期内可能准确,也可能不准确。前瞻性陈述通常以“相信”“预计”“预期”等词语表述。请勿过度依赖这些仅代表本文日期时点的前瞻性陈述。对于因获取新信息、未来事件或其他原因而需更新或修改前瞻性陈述, 我们不承担任何义务。尽管我们认为自己的评估具有合理基础并对观点充满信心,但实际结果可能与预期有重大差异。
Objective and Risks. The investment objective of Davis Financial Fund is long-term growth of capital. There can be no assurance that the Fund will achieve its objective. Some important risks of an investment in the Fund are: stock market risk: stock markets have periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices, including sharp declines; common stock risk: an adverse event may have a negative impact on a company and could result in a decline in the price of its common stock; financial services risk: investing a significant portion of assets in the financial services sector may cause the Fund to be more sensitive to problems affecting financial companies; credit risk: The issuer of a fixed income security (potentially even the U.S. Government) may be unable to make timely payments of interest and principal; interest rate sensitivity risk: interest rates may have a powerful influence on the earnings of financial institutions; focused portfolio risk: investing in a limited number of companies causes changes in the value of a single security to have a more significant effect on the value of the Fund’s total portfolio; headline risk: the Fund may invest in a company when the company becomes the center of controversy. The company’s stock may never recover or may become worthless; foreign country risk: foreign companies may be subject to greater risk as foreign economies may not be as strong or diversified. As of December 31, 2023, the Fund had approximately 19.6% of net assets invested in foreign companies; large-capitalization companies risk: companies with \$10 billion or more in market capitalization generally experience slower rates of growth in earnings per share than do mid- and small-capitalization companies; manager risk: poor security selection may cause the Fund to underperform relevant benchmarks; depositary receipts risk: depositary receipts involve higher expenses and may trade at a discount (or premium) to the underlying security and may be less liquid than the underlying securities listed on an exchange; fees and expenses risk: the Fund may not earn enough through income and capital appreciation to offset the operating expenses of the Fund; foreign currency risk: the change in value of a foreign currency against the U.S. dollar will result in a change in the U.S. dollar value of securities denominated in that foreign currency; emerging market risk: securities of issuers in emerging and developing markets may present risks not found in more mature markets; and mid- and small-capitalization companies risk: companies with less than \$10 billion in market capitalization typically have more limited product lines, markets and financial resources than larger companies, and may trade less frequently and in more limited volume. See the prospectus for a complete description of the principal risks.
目标与风险。Davis Financial Fund 的投资目标为实现长期资本增长,但无法保证基金一定实现该目标。投资本基金的一些重要风险包括:股票市场风险——股市有涨有跌,且可能急剧下跌;普通股风险——不利事件可能对公司产生负面影响并导致股价下跌;金融服务业风险——基金若将大量资产投资于金融服务业,可能对金融公司相关问题更为敏感;信用风险——固定收益证券发行人(甚至包括美国政府)可能无法按时支付本息;利率敏感风险——利率可能对金融机构盈利产生重大影响;集中投资风险——持股公司数量有限使单一证券价格变动对基金总资产影响更为显著;头条风险——基金可能投资于成为争议焦点的公司,该公司股票或永难恢复甚至变得一文不值;外国市场风险——外国公司可能面临更大的风险,因为外国经济体未必强劲或多元化,截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日,基金约 19.6% 的净资产投资于外国公司;大盘股风险——市值 100 亿美元及以上公司每股收益增速通常低于中小盘公司;管理人风险——选股不当可能导致基金表现不及相关基准;存托凭证风险——存托凭证费用更高且可能相对标的证券折价(或溢价)交易,并且流动性可能不及交易所上市的标的;费用与开支风险——基金通过收益和资本增值获得的回报可能不足以抵消运营开支;外汇风险——外币兑美元汇率变动会导致以该外币计价证券的美元价值变化;新兴市场风险——新兴和发展中市场发行人的证券可能存在成熟市场所没有的风险;中小盘股风险——市值低于 100 亿美元的公司通常产品线、市场和财务资源有限,且交易频率和规模较小。有关主要风险的完整描述,请参阅《招募说明书》。
The information provided in this material should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. As of December 31, 2023, the top ten holdings of Davis Financial Fund were: Capital One Financial, 10.75%; Wells Fargo, 8.39%; JPMorgan Chase, 7.20%; Bank of New York Mellon, 6.12%; Fifth Third Bancorp, 5.84%; Berkshire Hathaway, 5.52%; U.S. Bancorp, 5.50%; Markel Group, 5.24%; Chubb, 5.11%; and PNC Financial Services, 5.07%.
本文信息不应视为买入、卖出或持有任何特定证券的建议。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日,Davis Financial Fund 的前十大持仓为:Capital One Financial 10.75%,Wells Fargo 8.39%,JPMorgan Chase 7.20%,Bank of New York Mellon 6.12%,Fifth Third Bancorp 5.84%,Berkshire Hathaway 5.52%,U.S. Bancorp 5.50%,Markel Group 5.24%,Chubb 5.11%,PNC Financial Services 5.07%。
Davis Funds has adopted a Portfolio Holdings Disclosure policy that governs the release of nonpublic portfolio holding information. This policy is described in the Statement of Additional Information. Holding percentages are subject to change. Visit davisfunds.com or call 800-279-0279 for the most current public portfolio holdings information.
Davis Funds 采纳了《投资组合持仓披露政策》,规范非公开持仓信息的披露。该政策载于《补充信息说明书》。持仓比例可随时变动。获取最新的公开持仓信息,请访问 davisfunds.com 或致电 800-279-0279。
The S\&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 selected common stocks, most of which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The index is adjusted for dividends, weighted towards stocks with large market capitalizations and represents approximately two-thirds of the total market value of all domestic common stocks. Investments cannot be made directly in an index.
标普 500 指数是不受管理的指数,由 500 只精选普通股组成,其中大部分在纽约证券交易所上市。该指数经股息调整,并按市值加权,代表了美国全部本土普通股总市值约三分之二。指数本身无法直接投资。