2024-04-25 Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

2024-04-25 Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call April 25, 2024 5:00 PM ET
资本一金融公司(纽约证券交易所代码:COF)2024 年第一季度财报电话会议 2024 年 4 月 25 日 下午 5:00(东部时间)

Company Participants 公司参与者

Jeff Norris - Senior Vice President of Finance
杰夫·诺里斯 - 财务高级副总裁
Andrew Young - Chief Financial Officer
安德鲁·杨 - 首席财务官
Richard Fairbank - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
理查德·费尔班克 - 主席兼首席执行官

Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者

Ryan Nash - Goldman Sachs
瑞安·纳什 - 高盛
Mihir Bhatia - Bank of America
米希尔·巴蒂亚 - 美国银行
Rick Shane - JPMorgan
瑞克·香农 - 摩根大通
John Pancari - Evercore ISI
约翰·潘卡里 - Evercore ISI
Moshe Orenbuch - TD Cowen
摩西·奥伦布赫 - TD Cowen
Don Fandetti - Wells Fargo
唐·范德提 - 富国银行
Sanjay Sakhrani - KBW
桑贾伊·萨克拉尼 - KBW
Bill Carcache - Wolfe Research
比尔·卡尔卡奇 - 沃尔夫研究
Jeff Adelson - Morgan Stanley
杰夫·阿德尔森 - 摩根士丹利

Operator 操作员

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Capital One Q1 2024 Earnings Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
您好,感谢您的耐心等待。欢迎参加 Capital One 2024 年第一季度财报电话会议。请注意,今天的会议正在录音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Norris, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.
我现在想把会议交给今天的发言人,杰夫·诺里斯,财务高级副总裁。请继续。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Thanks very much, Josh, and welcome to everyone.
非常感谢,乔希,欢迎大家。

We are webcasting live over the Internet this evening. To access the call on the Internet, please log on to Capital One's website at capitalone.com and follow the links from there. In addition to the press release and financials, we have included a presentation summarizing our first quarter 2024 results.
我们今晚将在互联网上进行直播。要通过互联网访问电话会议,请登录 Capital One 的网站 capitalone.com 并按照链接操作。除了新闻稿和财务数据,我们还包含了一份总结我们 2024 年第一季度业绩的演示文稿。

With me this evening are Mr. Richard Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Andrew Young, Capital One's Chief Financial Officer. Rich and Andrew are going to walk you through this presentation. To access a copy of the presentation and press release, please go to Capital One's website and click on Investors, then click on Financials, and then click on Quarterly Earnings Release.
今晚与我在一起的是理查德·费尔班克先生,Capital One 的董事长兼首席执行官,以及安德鲁·杨先生,Capital One 的首席财务官。理查德和安德鲁将为您讲解本次演示文稿。要获取演示文稿和新闻稿的副本,请访问 Capital One 的网站,点击“投资者”,然后点击“财务”,接着点击“季度财报”。

Please note that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Information regarding Capital One's financial performance and any forward-looking statements contained in today's discussion and the materials speak only as of the particular date or dates indicated in the materials, and Capital One does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of this information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
请注意,本演示文稿可能包含前瞻性陈述。关于 Capital One 财务表现的信息以及今天讨论和材料中包含的任何前瞻性陈述仅在材料中指明的特定日期或日期有效,Capital One 不承担更新或修订任何此类信息的义务,无论是由于新信息、未来事件还是其他原因。

Numerous factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements. For more information on these factors, please see the section called Forward-Looking Information in the earnings release presentation and the Risk Factors section of our annual and quarterly reports accessible at Capital One's website and filed with the SEC.
众多因素可能导致我们的实际结果与前瞻性声明中描述的结果存在重大差异。有关这些因素的更多信息,请参阅收益发布演示文稿中的前瞻性信息部分以及我们在 Capital One 网站上可获取的年度和季度报告中的风险因素部分,这些报告已提交给 SEC。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Rich -- to Andrew. Mr. Young?
那么,我将把电话交给 Rich -- Andrew。杨先生?

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Thanks, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start on Slide 3 of tonight's presentation.
谢谢,杰夫,大家下午好。我将从今晚演示的第 3 页开始。

In the first quarter, Capital One earned $1.3 billion or $3.13 per diluted common share. Included in the results for the quarter was a $42 million additional accrual for our updated estimate of the FDIC's special assessment. Net of this adjusting item, first quarter earnings per share were $3.21.
在第一季度,Capital One 赚取了 13 亿美元,或每股稀释普通股收益 3.13 美元。季度结果中包括了 4200 万美元的额外计提,以反映我们对 FDIC 特别评估的最新估计。扣除这一调整项目后,第一季度每股收益为 3.21 美元。

Relative to the prior quarter, period-end loans held for investment decreased 2% and period-end deposits increased 1%. Both average loans and average deposits were flat. Our percentage of FDIC insured deposits remained at 82% of total deposits.
与前一个季度相比,期末投资持有贷款减少了 2%,期末存款增加了 1%。平均贷款和平均存款持平。我们的联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)保险存款占总存款的比例保持在 82%。

Pre-provision earnings in the first quarter increased 13% from the fourth quarter or 6% adjusting for the impacts of FDIC special assessments in both quarters.
第一季度的预备拨备收益较第四季度增长了 13%,或在调整了两季度 FDIC 特别评估的影响后增长了 6%。

Revenue in the linked quarter declined 1%, largely driven by lower non-interest income. Non-interest expense decreased 6% on an adjusted basis, driven by declines in both operating and marketing expenses.
与上个季度相比,收入下降了 1%,主要是由于非利息收入减少。经调整后的非利息支出下降了 6%,主要是由于运营和营销支出的减少。

Our provision for credit losses was $2.7 billion in the quarter, a decrease of $174 million compared to the prior quarter. The decrease was driven by $257 million lower net reserve build, partially offset by an $83 million increase in net charge-offs.
我们本季度的信用损失准备为 27 亿美元,比上个季度减少了 1.74 亿美元。减少的原因是净准备金增加减少了 2.57 亿美元,部分被净核销增加了 8300 万美元所抵消。

Turning to Slide 4, I will cover the allowance in greater detail. We built $91 million in allowance this quarter, bringing the balance to $15.4 billion, an increase of less than 1% from the fourth quarter. The slight increase in allowance balance was driven by modest builds in our auto and domestic card portfolios. Our total portfolio coverage ratio increased 11 basis points to 4.88%.
转到幻灯片 4,我将更详细地介绍拨备。本季度我们建立了 9100 万美元的拨备,使余额达到 154 亿美元,比第四季度增加了不到 1%。拨备余额的轻微增加是由于我们汽车和国内信用卡投资组合的适度增加。我们的总投资组合覆盖率增加了 11 个基点,达到 4.88%。

I'll cover the drivers of the changes in allowance and coverage ratio by segment on Slide 5. Our baseline economic forecast modestly improved this quarter compared to what we assumed last quarter, which generally aligns with consensus. We continue to consider a range of economic outcomes in our reserving process.
我将在第 5 页中介绍各个细分市场中拨备和覆盖率变化的驱动因素。与我们上个季度的假设相比,我们的基线经济预测在本季度略有改善,这与市场共识大致一致。我们在拨备过程中继续考虑一系列经济结果。

In our Domestic Card business, the allowance coverage ratio increased by 22 basis points to 7.85%. The increase in coverage was primarily driven by the denominator effect of the run-off of the fourth quarter's seasonal outstandings.
在我们的国内卡业务中,拨备覆盖率增加了 22 个基点,达到了 7.85%。覆盖率的增加主要是由于第四季度季节性未偿余额的减少效应。

In our Consumer Banking segment, the allowance increased by $46 million, resulting in a 7 basis point increase to the coverage ratio. The allowance increase was primarily driven by a higher level of originations in the auto finance business.
在我们的消费银行业务部门,拨备增加了 4600 万美元,导致覆盖率上升了 7 个基点。拨备的增加主要是由于汽车金融业务的发放水平提高。

And finally, our Commercial Banking allowance decreased by $7 million, primarily driven by portfolio contraction. Coverage ratio increased by 1 basis point to 1.72%.
最后,我们的商业银行拨备减少了 700 万美元,主要是由于投资组合收缩。覆盖率增加了 1 个基点,达到 1.72%。

Turning to Page 6, I'll now discuss liquidity. Total liquidity reserves in the quarter increased to $127 billion, about $7 billion higher than last quarter. Our cash position ended the quarter at approximately $51 billion, up about $8 billion from the prior quarter. The increase in cash was driven by continued strong deposit growth in our retail banking business and the seasonality of our card balances. Our average liquidity coverage ratio during the first quarter remains strong and well above regulatory minimums at 164%.
翻到第 6 页,我现在将讨论流动性。本季度的总流动性储备增加到 1270 亿美元,比上个季度高出约 70 亿美元。我们的现金头寸在本季度末约为 510 亿美元,比上个季度增加了约 80 亿美元。现金的增加主要是由于我们零售银行业务持续强劲的存款增长和信用卡余额的季节性波动。我们在第一季度的平均流动性覆盖率保持强劲,远高于监管最低要求,达到了 164%。

Turning to Page 7, I'll cover our net interest margin. Our first quarter net interest margin was 6.69%, 4 basis points lower than last quarter and 9 basis points higher than the year-ago quarter. The quarter-over-quarter decrease in NIM was largely driven by the impact of having one fewer day in the quarter. Modestly higher asset yields were mostly offset by higher funding costs in the quarter.
翻到第 7 页,我将介绍我们的净利差。我们第一季度的净利差为 6.69%,比上个季度低 4 个基点,比去年同期高 9 个基点。本季度净利差的环比下降主要是由于本季度少了一天的影响。资产收益率的适度上升大部分被本季度更高的融资成本抵消。
相当高的净利差,是好是坏还不好判断。

Turning to Slide 8, I will end by discussing our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio ended the quarter at 13.1%, approximately 20 basis points higher than the prior quarter. Strong earnings and lower risk-weighted assets more than offset the impact of CECL phase-in, dividends and share repurchases. We repurchased approximately $100 million of shares in the first quarter. Our repurchase activity in the quarter was impacted by blackout restrictions and daily purchase volume limitations related to the announcement of the Discover transaction.
转到第8页,我将以讨论我们的资本状况结束。我们的一级普通股资本比率在本季度末为13.1%,比上一季度高出大约20个基点。强劲的收益和较低的风险加权资产远远抵消了CECL逐步实施、股息和股票回购的影响。我们在第一季度回购了大约1亿美元的股份。本季度的回购活动受到了与Discover交易公告相关的禁售限制和每日购买量限制的影响。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich. Rich?
好的,我将把电话交给 Rich。Rich?

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Thanks, Andrew, and good evening, everyone.
谢谢,安德鲁,大家晚上好。

Slide 10 shows first quarter results in our Credit Card business. Credit Card segment results are largely a function of our Domestic Card results and trends, which are shown on Slide 11. Top-line growth trends in the Domestic Card business remained strong in the first quarter. Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the first quarter was 6%. Ending loan balances increased $12.9 billion or about 10% year-over-year. Average loans increased 11%. And first quarter revenue was up 12% year-over-year, driven by the growth in purchase volume and loans.
幻灯片 10 显示了我们信用卡业务的第一季度业绩。信用卡部门的业绩在很大程度上取决于我们的国内卡业务的结果和趋势,这些在幻灯片 11 中展示。国内卡业务的收入增长趋势在第一季度保持强劲。第一季度的同比消费量增长为 6%。期末贷款余额同比增加了 129 亿美元,约增长 10%。平均贷款增加了 11%。第一季度的收入同比增长了 12%,主要受消费量和贷款增长的推动。

The charge-off rate for the quarter was up 190 basis points year-over-year to 5.94%, about 18% above its pre-pandemic level in the first quarter of 2019. The 30-plus delinquency rate at quarter-end increased 82 basis points from the prior year to 4.48%. On a sequential quarter basis, the charge-off rate was up 59 basis points and the 30-plus delinquency rate was down 13 basis points.
本季度的核销率同比上升 190 个基点,达到 5.94%,比 2019 年第一季度的疫情前水平高出约 18%。季度末的 30 天以上逾期率较去年上升 82 个基点,达到 4.48%。按顺序季度计算,核销率上升 59 个基点,30 天以上逾期率下降 13 个基点。

The linked-quarter delinquency and charge-off rate trends were modestly worse than what we would expect from normal seasonality. We believe this is largely driven by lower and later tax refund payments to consumers so far in 2024 relative to what we've historically observed. Tax refunds are an important factor in credit seasonality. Each year they drive an improvement in delinquency payments and recovery starting in February. Our portfolio trend generally have a more pronounced seasonal pattern than the industry average.
与正常季节性相比,本季度的逾期和核销率趋势略有恶化。我们认为这主要是由于2024年迄今为止消费者的退税支付较低且较晚,与我们历史上观察到的情况相比。退税是信贷季节性的重要因素。每年从二月份开始,它们都会推动逾期付款的改善和恢复。我们投资组合的趋势通常比行业平均水平有更明显的季度模式。

Last quarter, our view was that the charge-off rate was settling out about 15% above 2019 levels in the near term. That was based on an extrapolation of our delinquency inventory and flow rates over three to six months, and that was the horizon of our estimate. If the trend of lower tax refund sustains, it could raise the level of charge-off somewhat in the near term, but this does not change our view that credit is settling out modestly above pre-pandemic levels in 2018 and 2019.
上个季度,我们的观点是短期内核销率将稳定在比2019年水平高出约15%。这是基于我们对逾期库存和3到6个月流动率的推算,这也是我们估计的地平线。如果退税减少的趋势持续下去,短期内可能会稍微提高核销率的水平,但这不会改变我们的观点,即信贷在2018年和2019年疫情前的水平上适度上升。

The continuing deceleration in the pace of credit normalization trend, sometimes referred to as the improving second derivative, supports our view. The pace of year-over-year increases in both the charge-off rate and the delinquency rate have been steadily declining for several quarters and continued to shrink in the first quarter.
信贷正常化趋势的持续减速,有时被称为改善的二阶导数,支持了我们的观点。无论是坏账率还是逾期率的同比增长速度,已经连续几个季度稳步下降,并在第一季度继续缩小。

Domestic Card non-interest expense was up 6% compared to the first quarter of 2023, with increases in both operating expense and marketing expense. Total company marketing expense of about $1 billion for the quarter was up 13% year-over-year. Total company marketing drives growth and builds franchise in our Domestic Card and Consumer Banking businesses and builds and leverages the value of our brand. Our choices in Domestic Card are the biggest driver of total company marketing. We continue to see attractive growth opportunities in our Domestic Card business. Our opportunities are enhanced by our technology transformation.
国内卡非利息支出较 2023 年第一季度增长了 6%,运营支出和营销支出均有所增加。公司本季度的总营销支出约为 10 亿美元,同比增长 13%。公司总营销推动了国内卡和消费银行业务的增长,并提升了我们品牌的价值。我们在国内卡的选择是公司总营销的最大驱动因素。我们继续看到国内卡业务中有吸引力的增长机会。我们的机会因技术转型而得到增强。

Our marketing continues to deliver strong new account growth across the Domestic Card business. And in the first quarter, Domestic Card marketing also included higher early spend bonuses driven by strong new account growth, higher media spend, and increased marketing for franchise enhancements like our travel portal, airport lounges, and Capital One shopping. We continue to lean into marketing to drive resilient growth and enhance our Domestic Card franchise. As always, we're keeping a close eye on competitor actions and potential marketplace risks.
我们的营销继续在国内卡业务中实现强劲的新账户增长。在第一季度,国内卡营销还包括由于强劲的新账户增长、较高的媒体支出以及针对特许经营增强(如我们的旅行门户、机场贵宾室和 Capital One 购物)的增加营销而带来的更高的早期消费奖金。我们继续加大营销力度,以推动韧性增长并增强我们的国内卡特许经营。和往常一样,我们密切关注竞争对手的行动和潜在的市场风险。

Slide 12 shows first quarter results for our Consumer Banking business. In the first quarter, auto originations increased 21% from the prior-year quarter, a return to growth after several quarters of year-over-year declines. Consumer Banking ending loans decreased about $3.1 billion, or 4% year-over-year. On a linked-quarter basis, ending loans were essentially flat.
幻灯片 12 显示了我们消费者银行业务的第一季度业绩。在第一季度,汽车贷款发放较去年同期增长 21%,在经历了几个季度的同比下降后恢复了增长。消费者银行的期末贷款减少了约 31 亿美元,或同比下降 4%。按环比计算,期末贷款基本持平。

We posted another quarter of year-over-year growth in consumer deposits. First quarter ending deposits in the consumer bank were up just under $10 billion or 3% year-over-year. Compared to the sequential quarter, ending deposits were up about 2%. Average deposits were up 6% year-over-year and up 1% from the sequential quarter. Powered by our modern technology and leading digital capabilities, our digital-first national direct banking strategy continues to deliver strong consumer deposit growth.
我们在消费者存款方面又实现了一个季度的同比增长。第一季度末,消费者银行的存款增加了近 100 亿美元,年增长率为 3%。与前一个季度相比,期末存款增长约 2%。平均存款同比增长 6%,与前一个季度相比增长 1%。得益于我们的现代技术和领先的数字能力,我们以数字为先的全国直接银行战略继续推动强劲的消费者存款增长。

Consumer Banking revenue for the quarter was down about 13% year-over-year, largely driven by lower auto loan balances and higher deposit costs. Non-interest expense was down about 3% compared to the first quarter of 2023. Lower operating expenses were partially offset by an increase in marketing to support our national digital bank.
消费者银行本季度收入同比下降约 13%,主要受汽车贷款余额减少和存款成本上升的影响。非利息支出较 2023 年第一季度下降约 3%。较低的运营费用部分被增加的市场营销支出所抵消,以支持我们的全国数字银行。

The auto charge-off rate for the quarter was 1.99%, up 46 basis points year-over-year. The 30-plus delinquency rate was 5.28%, up 28 basis points year-over-year. Compared to the linked quarter, the charge-off rate was down 20 basis points, while the 30-plus delinquency rate was down 106 basis points. The linked-quarter charge-off rate improvement modestly underperformed the typical seasonal patterns we've historically observed, driven by the tax refund trends I just discussed. Even with the tax refund effects, auto credit performance remained strong.
本季度的汽车坏账率为 1.99%,同比上升 46 个基点。30 天以上的逾期率为 5.28%,同比上升 28 个基点。与上个季度相比,坏账率下降了 20 个基点,而 30 天以上的逾期率下降了 106 个基点。与上个季度相比,坏账率的改善略低于我们历史上观察到的典型季节性模式,这主要是受到我刚才讨论的退税趋势的影响。即使考虑到退税的影响,汽车信贷表现依然强劲。

Slide 13 shows first quarter results for our Commercial Banking business. Compared to the linked quarter, ending loan balances decreased about 1%. Average loans were also down about 1%. The modest declines are largely the result of choices we made in 2023 to tighten credit. Ending deposits were down about 5% from the linked quarter. Average deposits were down about 8%. The declines are largely driven by our continued choices to manage down selected, less attractive commercial deposit balances.
幻灯片 13 显示了我们商业银行业务的第一季度业绩。与上一个季度相比,期末贷款余额下降了约 1%。平均贷款也下降了约 1%。这些温和的下降主要是我们在 2023 年做出的收紧信贷的选择所致。期末存款较上个季度下降了约 5%。平均存款下降了约 8%。这些下降主要是由于我们继续选择减少某些不太吸引人的商业存款余额。

First quarter revenue was up 2% from the linked quarter. Non-interest expense was up about 6%. The Commercial Banking annualized net charge-off rate for the first quarter decreased 40 basis points from the sequential quarter to 0.13%. The Commercial Banking criticized performing loan rate was 8.39%, down 42 basis points compared to the linked quarter. The criticized non-performing loan rate increased 44 basis points to 1.28%. Commercial credit risks continue to be most pronounced in the commercial office portfolio, which is less than 1% of total company loan balances.
第一季度收入较上季度增长了 2%。非利息支出增加了约 6%。商业银行第一季度年化净核销率较上季度下降了 40 个基点,降至 0.13%。商业银行不良贷款率为 8.39%,较上季度下降了 42 个基点。不良贷款率增加了 44 个基点,达到 1.28%。商业信贷风险在商业办公投资组合中最为明显,该投资组合占公司总贷款余额的不到 1%。

In closing, we continued to deliver strong results in the first quarter. We posted another quarter of top-line growth in Domestic Card revenue, purchase volume and loans. Domestic Card credit trend continue to stabilize and auto credit trends remained stable and in line with normal seasonal pattern. We grew consumer deposits, and we added liquidity and maintained capital to further strengthen our already strong and resilient balance sheet.
最后,我们在第一季度继续交出强劲的业绩。我们在国内卡收入、购买量和贷款方面又实现了一个季度的收入增长。国内卡信用趋势继续稳定,汽车信用趋势保持稳定,并符合正常的季节性模式。我们增加了消费者存款,增加了流动性,并保持资本,以进一步增强我们已经强大且具有韧性的资产负债表。

Over the last decade, we've driven significant operating efficiency improvement, even as we've invested to transform our technology, and we continue to drive for efficiency improvement over time. For the full year 2024, we continue to expect annual operating efficiency ratio, net of adjustments, to be flat to modestly down compared to 2023. Our expectation includes the partial year impact of the proposed CFPB late fee rule assuming the rule takes effect in October 2024. The timing of the new rule remains uncertain. If the rule were to take effect at an earlier date, it would be a headwind to the 2024 operating efficiency ratio.
在过去十年中,我们推动了显著的运营效率提升,即使在我们投资于技术转型的同时,我们仍然持续追求效率的提升。对于 2024 年全年,我们预计调整后的年度运营效率比率将与 2023 年持平或略有下降。我们的预期包括假设 CFPB 提议的滞纳金规则在 2024 年 10 月生效的部分年度影响。新规则的生效时间仍不确定。如果该规则在更早的日期生效,将对 2024 年的运营效率比率构成压力。

Of course, the biggest news in the quarter was our announcement that we entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Discover. We've submitted our applications for regulatory approval and we're fully mobilized to plan and deliver a successful integration. The combination of Capital One and Discover creates game-changing strategic opportunities.
当然,本季度最大的新闻是我们宣布达成了收购 Discover 的最终协议。我们已提交监管审批申请,并已全面动员以规划和实施成功的整合。Capital One 与 Discover 的结合创造了颠覆性的战略机会。

The Discover payments network positions Capital One as a more diversified, vertically-integrated global payments platform. And adding Capital One's debit spending and a growing portion of our credit card purchase volume to the Discover network will add significant scale, increasing the network's value to merchants, small businesses, and consumers, and driving enhanced network growth.
Discover 支付网络将 Capital One 定位为一个更加多元化、垂直整合的全球支付平台。将 Capital One 的借记卡消费和不断增长的信用卡交易量加入 Discover 网络,将显著增加规模,提高网络对商家、小型企业和消费者的价值,并推动网络的增长。

In the Credit Card business, we're bringing together two proven franchises with complementary strategies and a shared focus on the customer. And we can accelerate the growth of our national digital-first Consumer Banking business by adding the Discover consumer deposit franchise and the vertical integration benefits of the debit network.
在信用卡业务中,我们将两个经过验证的品牌结合在一起,采用互补的战略,并共同关注客户。通过增加 Discover 消费者存款品牌和借记网络的垂直整合优势,我们可以加速国家数字优先消费者银行业务的增长。

We will be able to leverage and scale the benefits of our 11-year technology transformation across every business and the network, which will serve as a catalyst for innovation and enhanced capabilities in risk management and compliance, underwriting, marketing, and customer service.
我们将能够利用并扩展我们 11 年技术转型的好处,覆盖每个业务和网络,这将成为创新和增强风险管理与合规、承保、市场营销和客户服务能力的催化剂。

Pulling way up, the acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity. It will create a consumer banking and global payments platform with unique capabilities, modern technology, powerful brands, and a franchise of more than 100 million customers. It delivers compelling financial results, and it offers the potential to create significant value for merchants and customers, and an unparalleled strategic and economic upside over the long term.
收购 Discover 是一个独特的机会。它将创建一个具有独特能力、现代技术、强大品牌和超过 1 亿客户的消费银行和全球支付平台。它提供了引人注目的财务业绩,并为商家和客户创造显著价值的潜力,以及长期内无与伦比的战略和经济收益。

And now, we'll be happy to answer your questions. Jeff?
现在,我们很高兴回答您的问题。杰夫?

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Thank you, Rich. We'll now start the Q&A session. Remember, as a courtesy to other investors and analysts who may wish to ask a question, please limit yourself to one question plus a single follow-up. And if you have follow-up questions after the Q&A session, the Investor Relations team will be available after the call.
谢谢你,Rich。我们现在开始问答环节。请记住,为了其他可能想提问的投资者和分析师的礼貌,请限制自己提问一个问题加一个后续问题。如果在问答环节结束后还有后续问题,投资者关系团队将在通话结束后提供帮助。

Josh, please start the Q&A.
乔希,请开始问答环节。

Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节

Operator 操作员

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
谢谢。[操作员指示] 我们的第一个问题来自高盛的瑞安·纳什。请继续。

Ryan Nash 瑞安·纳什

Hey, good evening, guys.
嘿,晚上好,大家。

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Hey, Ryan. 嘿,瑞安。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Good evening, Ryan. 晚上好,瑞安。

Ryan Nash 瑞安·纳什

So Rich, maybe to just start off on credit. It sounds like you're running a little bit ahead of what you had outlined last quarter. But when you put aside the timing of tax refunds, can you maybe just talk about what you're seeing from the consumer? And do you think we've now reached the inflection where we can more closely follow seasonal patterns and once the noise settles, do you think we're kind of back at that 15% level that you had outlined? Thank you.
Rich,或许可以先从信用开始。听起来你们的进展有些超前于上个季度的计划。但是当你把税款退款的时机放在一边时,你能否谈谈你们对消费者的观察?你认为我们现在是否已经达到了一个拐点,可以更紧密地跟随季节性模式?一旦噪音平息,你认为我们是否能回到你所提到的 15%的水平?谢谢。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Thank you, Ryan. Look, I think that the story continues to be one of -- well in terms of -- there's sort of the consumer itself, let's just talk about the consumer for a second and then let's talk about Capital One's credit performance. But just the health of the consumer, I think the U.S. consumer remains a source of strength in the economy. The labor market remains strikingly resilient. Rising incomes have kept consumer debt servicing burdens relatively low by historical standards. And when we look at our customers, we see that they have higher bank balances than before the pandemic and this is true across income levels. On the other hand, of course, inflation shrank real incomes for almost two years. And in this high interest rate environment, the cost of new borrowing has gone up in every major asset class. And I think, at the margin, these effects stretch some consumers financially. But on the whole, I'd say consumers are in reasonably good shape relative -- pretty darn strong shape relative to historical benchmarks.
谢谢你,瑞安。看,我认为这个故事仍然是一个——好吧,就消费者本身而言,我们先谈谈消费者,然后再谈谈 Capital One 的信用表现。但就消费者的健康而言,我认为美国消费者仍然是经济中的一个强劲来源。劳动力市场仍然表现出惊人的韧性。收入的增长使消费者的债务服务负担在历史标准下相对较低。当我们查看我们的客户时,我们发现他们的银行余额比疫情前更高,这在各个收入水平上都是如此。另一方面,当然,通货膨胀在近两年内压缩了实际收入。在这个高利率环境中,新借款的成本在每个主要资产类别中都上升了。我认为,在边际上,这些影响在一定程度上给一些消费者带来了财务压力。但总体而言,我会说消费者的状况相对——相对于历史基准来说,还是相当不错的。

So, in terms of Capital One's performance, we continue to see a settling out. We consider -- we believe that for Capital One, I can't speak for all card issuers, but we definitely have see what we think is sort of a landing and our -- so we feel very good about where the credit is.
在资本一的表现方面,我们继续看到一个稳定的趋势。我们认为——我们相信对于资本一,我不能代表所有的卡发行机构,但我们确实看到我们认为是一种着陆的状态,因此我们对信用状况感到非常满意。

The point that I wanted to make about the tax refunds, let's just pull up for a second on that. The tax refunds are something that nobody knows for sure exactly what's behind seasonality, but I think it's a -- we believe a very important driver of seasonality. It's a bigger effect for us than other players, because I think tax refunds just play a little bit bigger role in collectively across our customer base.
我想谈一下关于退税的观点,我们先暂停一下。退税是一个没有人确切知道季节性背后原因的事情,但我认为这是一个——我们相信是季节性的重要驱动因素。对我们来说,这个影响比其他参与者更大,因为我认为退税在我们客户群体中扮演了更重要的角色。

So, the tax refunds in the very near term affect credit performance that Ryan what you're referring to the 15% guidance that we gave. That was not an annual guidance number, that was saying if we just extrapolate in the very near window of just what we see in terms of delinquencies and delinquency roll rates, that's where we would see charge-offs and charge-offs tend to be higher in the first half of the year. So, what we're doing is giving a window to the higher part of charge-offs for the year and we were saying they were settling out -- looked like around 15% above 2019 levels.
因此,近期的税收退款影响了信用表现,瑞安你所提到的 15%的指导是我们给出的。这不是一个年度指导数字,而是说如果我们仅仅推测在非常短的时间窗口内我们所看到的逾期和逾期滚动率,这就是我们会看到的减值损失,而减值损失往往在上半年较高。因此,我们所做的是给出全年减值损失较高部分的窗口,我们说它们的结算水平看起来大约在 2019 年水平的 15%之上。

Part of that -- and so basically what I'm saying is that includes our assumptions about what happens with tax refund and the seasonality effect. As we can see in the government data, tax refunds are lower and later than by historical patterns. And so that affects our near-term credit performance. And actually we often talk about well isn't the six-month window basically once charge-offs start bubbling and going through the roll rate buckets, we can pretty much see where charge-offs are going. Tax refunds actually affect the payment rates in every bucket. So, our point was in the very near term it actually leads to a bit of a higher charge-off rate than we had guided to over that near window. But that doesn't change our view that credit has settled out.
这部分——所以我基本上要说的是,这包括了我们对退税及其季节性影响的假设。正如我们从政府数据中看到的,退税比历史模式来得更少、更晚。因此,这影响了我们近期的信贷表现。实际上,我们经常讨论,六个月的时间窗口基本上一旦核销开始出现并经过滚动率桶,我们基本上可以看到核销的走向。退税实际上影响了每个桶的支付率。因此,我们的观点是,在非常近期内,它实际上导致了比我们在那个近窗口指导的略高的核销率。但这并不改变我们对信贷已经稳定下来的看法。

But the 15% was not a guidance for the year. We haven't really given credit guidance for the year. What we're really saying is we have seen credit settle out, but we wanted to just flag that both in the credit card business and in our auto business, while credit continues to be very strong and you've seen things like really improving delinquencies, we just wanted to point out that in the very near term, relative to what we have seen in terms of historical seasonality and kind of confirmed by what we watch as the patterns of tax refunds, there is a -- it's coming in lower and later and we just wanted to flag that effect because it affects the very near-term numbers that we cited earlier.
但 15%并不是对全年的指导。我们实际上并没有给出全年的信用指导。我们真正想说的是,我们已经看到信用稳定下来,但我们想指出的是,在信用卡业务和汽车业务中,尽管信用依然非常强劲,您也看到了逾期情况的显著改善,我们只是想指出,在非常短期内,相对于我们所看到的历史季节性,以及我们观察到的税收退款模式确认的情况,实际上是低于预期且来得更晚,我们只是想提醒这一影响,因为它会影响我们之前提到的非常短期的数字。

Ryan Nash 瑞安·纳什

Got it. Maybe as my quick follow-up for Andrew, I guess given Rich's answer, what does that mean for the trajectory of the allowance? Seems like we've heard a handful of other issuers talk about us being at the peak or maybe even coming down and potentially being below where it ended the prior year. Can you maybe just talk about what you think this means for Cap One given your credit expectations?
明白了。也许作为我对安德鲁的快速跟进,考虑到里奇的回答,这对拨备的轨迹意味着什么?似乎我们听到其他一些发行人谈到我们处于高峰,或者甚至可能下降,并且可能低于去年结束时的水平。你能否谈谈你认为这对资本一号意味着什么,考虑到你的信用预期?

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Yeah, sure, Ryan. I'd like to say from my perspective that there's a simple answer, but there's not. And then, there's a host of things that are going to drive allowance from here, not the least of which is growth, but just focusing on coverage and assuming that's what others are pointing to.
是的,当然,瑞安。从我的角度来看,我想说有一个简单的答案,但实际上并没有。而且,还有很多因素将推动未来的津贴,最重要的因素之一是增长,但我们只关注覆盖率,并假设这就是其他人所指的。

The first thing I'll highlight and I said in my talking points that fourth quarter had seasonal balances, they quickly pay off in the first quarter and therefore have negligible coverage, which we see every year. So, the coverage ratio this quarter up a bit from last quarter is really a result of that dynamic. But if you look at coverage ratio now, largely in line with the preceding quarters. I mean, the biggest driver as we look ahead are the projected loss rates. And as we've been saying for a number of quarters, delinquencies are the best leading indicator of that. And so, every quarter, we're going to look out over the next 12 months and then the reversion from there. Then, we're going to take into account a range of outcomes and uncertainties. And so, you've seen over the last few quarters keeping the coverage ratio flat.
我首先要强调的是,我在我的发言要点中提到,第四季度有季节性余额,它们在第一季度迅速偿还,因此覆盖率微不足道,这一点我们每年都能看到。因此,本季度的覆盖率比上季度略有上升,实际上是这一动态的结果。但是,如果你现在看覆盖率,基本上与前几个季度一致。我的意思是,展望未来,最大的驱动因素是预计的损失率。正如我们在过去几个季度所说的,逾期贷款是最好的领先指标。因此,每个季度,我们都会展望接下来的 12 个月,然后再进行回归。接着,我们将考虑一系列结果和不确定性。因此,你会看到在过去几个季度中,覆盖率保持平稳。

I will note though even in a period where projected losses in future quarters are lower than today and might indicate a release otherwise, you could very well see a coverage ratio that remains flat or only modestly declines as we incorporate the uncertainty of that future projection into the allowance. And so, eventually, the projected losses will -- when they're lower, will flow through the allowance and bring the coverage ratio down, as those uncertainties become more certain. And under that scenario, you would see a decline, but at this point like I'm not going to be in the forecasting business of when that actually is going to take into account, because, like I said, we really need to take the factor of the uncertainty as we look ahead every quarter that we go through the reserving process.
我会注意到,即使在未来几个季度的预计损失低于今天并可能表明释放的情况下,您仍然可能会看到一个保持平稳或仅略微下降的覆盖率,因为我们将未来预测的不确定性纳入准备金。因此,最终,预计损失在降低时将流入准备金并使覆盖率下降,因为这些不确定性变得更加确定。在这种情况下,您会看到下降,但在这一点上,我不会预测这实际上何时会考虑到,因为,正如我所说,我们在每个季度进行准备金过程时,确实需要考虑不确定性因素。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please? 下一个问题,请?

Operator 操作员

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America. You may proceed.
谢谢。请稍等,接下来是提问环节。我们的下一个问题来自美国银行的 Mihir Bhatia。请继续。

Mihir Bhatia 米希尔·巴蒂亚

Hi, thank you. Rich, if I could switch for a second to the Discover acquisition? There's been a lot of talk around deal approval, particularly focusing around potential antitrust issues within the card business. And I was wondering if you could share your thoughts and perspective on that issue, if you've heard anything from regulators, but also just to hear how you're thinking about that issue. Thank you.
嗨,谢谢你。Rich,如果我可以暂时转到 Discover 的收购?关于交易批准有很多讨论,特别是围绕卡业务的潜在反垄断问题。我想知道你是否能分享一下你对此问题的看法和观点,如果你听到过监管机构的任何消息,同时也想听听你对这个问题的思考。谢谢。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Okay. Thank you, Mihir. So, we have filed our merger applications with both the Fed and the OCC, and we are engaged with the -- sorry, with the DOJ as they, of course, play a key role in advising the Fed and the OCC on competition questions. We believe our applications make a very compelling case for approval. We believe strongly that this merger will increase competition among banks, credit card issuers and payment networks and provide significant benefits for consumers, merchants and the communities that we serve. While some have raised concerns about competition, we believe that the facts in favor of the deal will be compelling.
好的。谢谢你,Mihir。所以,我们已经向美联储和货币监理署提交了合并申请,并且我们正在与司法部进行接洽,因为他们当然在向美联储和货币监理署提供竞争问题的建议方面发挥着关键作用。我们相信我们的申请为批准提供了非常有说服力的案例。我们坚信这次合并将增加银行、信用卡发行商和支付网络之间的竞争,并为我们服务的消费者、商家和社区带来显著的好处。虽然一些人对竞争提出了担忧,但我们相信支持该交易的事实将是有说服力的。

On the network side, let's remember that we're not currently in that business. If the deal is approved, we will still have four networks just like we do today. But we will be adding new customers and scale to the smallest by far of the four networks and be able to leverage our technology, talent and marketing capabilities to greatly enhance Discover's competitive viability. Their market share was 6% a decade ago and sits at just 4% today. The significant investments that we are planning will provide substantial benefits for consumers and merchants as we've outlined in our regulatory applications.
在网络方面,我们要记住我们目前并不在这个业务中。如果交易获得批准,我们仍将拥有四个网络,就像今天一样。但我们将增加新的客户,并将规模扩大到四个网络中最小的网络,并能够利用我们的技术、人才和营销能力大大增强 Discover 的竞争能力。十年前,他们的市场份额为 6%,而今天仅为 4%。我们计划的重大投资将为消费者和商家提供实质性的好处,正如我们在监管申请中所概述的。

On the credit card side, the regulators have found every time they've studied it that the credit card market is highly competitive and not at all concentrated. In fact, it's less concentrated today than it was 10 years ago. Consumers can choose from over 4,000 issuers, all able to offer products with similar capabilities. Imagine this, a card issued by a small credit union can be used every place that a card issued by a bank like Capital One can be used, anywhere in the world. That kind of level-playing field doesn't exist in any other industry and certainly not in airlines or grocery stores or many of the others. There is a reason that we ask folks what's in your wallet. We compete not only with these 4,000 other issuers to gain your business in the first place, but also with every other card you likely already own. Put another way, we have to compete every day for every single transaction, because our customers can simply choose at any moment to use another card. And if they don't like the card they have, they can stop using it entirely or close the account or switch to another card with another bank, large or small, in minutes.
在信用卡方面,监管机构每次研究发现,信用卡市场竞争非常激烈,根本没有集中化。事实上,今天的集中度比十年前更低。消费者可以从超过 4000 个发行者中选择,所有这些发行者都能够提供类似功能的产品。想象一下,一张由小型信用合作社发行的卡可以在全球任何地方使用,就像由 Capital One 等银行发行的卡一样。这种公平竞争的环境在其他行业中并不存在,航空公司、杂货店或许多其他行业更是如此。我们询问人们钱包里有什么是有原因的。我们不仅要与这 4000 个其他发行者竞争以获得您的业务,还要与您可能已经拥有的每一张卡竞争。换句话说,我们每天都必须为每一笔交易竞争,因为我们的客户可以随时选择使用另一张卡。如果他们不喜欢手中的卡,他们可以完全停止使用,关闭账户,或者在几分钟内切换到另一家大银行或小银行的另一张卡。

We also believe that the facts will show that there are no barriers to entry in the credit card business, as thousands of current issuers and the new ones are forming all the time demonstrate. New and incumbent fintechs backed by significant VC funding are able to leverage the infrastructure of sort of credit card as a service players like Marqeta to achieve instant scale and high growth. Also, any existing bank can choose where in the credit spectrum they play simply by changing their credit policy.
我们也相信,事实将表明信用卡业务没有进入壁垒,因为成千上万的现有发行者和不断涌现的新发行者都在证明这一点。获得大量风险投资支持的新兴和现有金融科技公司能够利用像 Marqeta 这样的信用卡即服务平台的基础设施,实现即时规模和高增长。此外,任何现有银行只需通过改变其信用政策即可选择在信用光谱中的位置。

Let's also remember that consumers can choose to use another form of payment entirely, cash, debit or Buy Now Pay Later, which has exploded onto the marketplace. New fintechs are entering the payments in small dollar credit space every day, all looking to take market share from traditional credit card players like Capital One. We faced this competition for years and we'll continue to face it in the future. It's powerful evidence of a healthy and fiercely competitive marketplace. But we have been successful by focusing on the needs of our customers and offering credit card and retail banking products with the most straightforward terms and fewest fees in the industry. We're the only major bank where all of our deposit products come with no fees, no minimums and no overdraft fees.
让我们也记住,消费者可以选择完全使用另一种支付方式,现金、借记卡或先买后付,这种方式在市场上迅速崛起。新的金融科技公司每天都在进入小额信贷支付领域,所有这些公司都希望从传统信用卡公司如 Capital One 那里抢占市场份额。我们多年来一直面临这种竞争,并将在未来继续面临。这是一个健康且竞争激烈的市场的有力证据。但我们通过关注客户的需求,并提供行业中最简单的条款和最低的费用的信用卡和零售银行产品而取得了成功。我们是唯一一家所有存款产品都没有费用、没有最低限额和没有透支费用的大型银行。

So, pulling way up, we believe the facts will show that this transaction is both pro-competitive and pro-consumer bringing our best-in-class products and services to a broader set of consumers and small businesses and greatly enhancing opportunities and benefits for merchants. In the end, that is what we believe the regulators will use their very vigorous process to evaluate.
因此,从整体上看,我们相信事实将表明这笔交易既有利于竞争,也有利于消费者,将我们一流的产品和服务带给更广泛的消费者和小企业,并大大增强商家的机会和利益。最终,这就是我们相信监管机构将利用其非常严格的流程进行评估的内容。

Mihir Bhatia 米希尔·巴蒂亚

Got it. Thank you. That is helpful. Just turning back to the health of the consumer for a second for my follow-up. If you could just talk a little bit about the environment for card acquisitions? You did mention, I think, that the growth -- you see good growth opportunities in the card business. So, I'm wondering if you could expand on that. Maybe talk about just some of the puts and takes as you consider where to make those investments? Are there parts of the market where you're being more cautious given the environment? Thank you.
明白了。谢谢。这很有帮助。让我回到消费者健康的话题,作为我的后续问题。如果您能谈谈卡片收购的环境,那就太好了?我记得您提到过,您认为卡片业务有良好的增长机会。所以,我想知道您能否对此进行扩展。也许可以谈谈在考虑投资时的一些利弊?在当前环境下,市场上是否有您更加谨慎的部分?谢谢。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Mihir, we are leaning in pretty much across the board in the card business, powered by a healthy consumer and the traction that we're getting in our business. We are -- really all parts of the card business are seeing very nice account originations, seeing good traction on the purchase volume side. And so, it's very much a positive time for leaning in as you see reflected in our marketing, as you see reflected in some of the growth numbers, and as I see in numbers behind the numbers that you see just a lot of traction.
米希尔,我们在信用卡业务上几乎全面加大投入,得益于健康的消费者和我们业务的良好势头。我们——信用卡业务的各个部分都在看到非常不错的账户开立,购买量方面也有良好的增长。因此,现在是加大投入的非常积极的时刻,这在我们的营销中有所体现,在一些增长数字中有所体现,而我在你看到的数字背后也看到很多势头。

And just -- let's just savor for a second some of the things that are powering that. Two things that I would flag is, one the continued investment that we are making to win at the top of the market And I think that not only affects our success at the top of the market, but I really believe there is a lifting of all boats from those investments and that traction there. Also, we continue to just get a -- have a lot of success powered by our technology transformation, including not only the customer experience and some of the product capabilities that we're able to offer, but really impacts on the whole way that we run the business and very notably on the credit and marketing side of the business, the ability to create mass customized offerings and real-time solutions just enables us to have more traction on the growth side.
让我们稍微品味一下推动这一切的一些因素。我想强调的两点是,首先,我们在市场顶端的持续投资。我认为这不仅影响我们在市场顶端的成功,而且我真的相信这些投资和所获得的进展会使所有船只都得到提升。此外,我们在技术转型方面也持续取得了很多成功,这不仅包括客户体验和我们能够提供的一些产品能力,还真正影响了我们经营业务的整体方式,尤其是在信贷和市场营销方面,能够创造大规模定制的产品和实时解决方案,使我们在增长方面获得了更多的推动力。

Also, I just want to say that we also are pleased to see things picking up in the auto business, and also we continue to have a lot of traction on our national bank.
此外,我想说我们也很高兴看到汽车业务有所回升,同时我们在国家银行方面也持续获得了很多关注。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please? 下一个问题,请?

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rick Shane with JPMorgan. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。请继续。

Rick Shane 瑞克·香农

Thanks for taking my questions this afternoon. Hey, Rich, I want to make sure I fully understand what you're describing in terms of credit. The framework is that charge-off rates will be about 15% higher than '18, '19 levels in the near term. But now with tax refunds, it might be a little bit higher than that. That over time, it will converge back towards slightly above '18, '19 levels. When I look at the delinquencies and one of the things we've observed is that roll from delinquency to charge-off is actually higher than it has been pretty much at any time in recent history. Does that suggest that delinquencies actually need to get back below '18, '19 levels to achieve that level of charge-off performance?
感谢您今天下午回答我的问题。嘿,Rich,我想确保我完全理解您所描述的信用情况。框架是,近期的坏账率将比 2018 年和 2019 年的水平高出约 15%。但现在由于税收退款,可能会稍微高于这个水平。随着时间的推移,它将逐渐回归到略高于 2018 年和 2019 年的水平。当我查看逾期情况时,我们观察到的一个现象是,从逾期到坏账的转化率实际上高于最近历史上的任何时候。这是否意味着逾期实际上需要回落到 2018 年和 2019 年的水平以下,以实现那种坏账表现?

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

So, Rick, there's a lot. First of all, let me clarify some of the things that you were saying weren't exactly, I think, as we intended to state them. So, let me just -- so we talked about -- so, yes, we talked about credit, we're saying credit settling out. We said in the very near term, where charge-offs are tend to be higher in the first half of the year, in the near term, based on extrapolation from delinquency buckets and roll rates, we would expect them to settle out at 15% higher than pre-pandemic. That was a near-term forecast, that was not an annual forecast.
所以,瑞克,有很多事情。首先,让我澄清一下你所说的一些事情,我认为并不是我们想要表达的。我们谈到了信用,是的,我们说信用正在结算。我们在短期内提到,第一季度的坏账通常较高,基于逾期账户和滚动率的推算,我们预计它们将比疫情前高出 15%。这是一个短期预测,而不是年度预测。

And then, you -- just to clarify, your comments that and over time it will converge back to slightly above 2018 and 2019, I just want to say those are your words not ours. We have not given guidance on full year charge-offs. We tend not generally to give guidance on full year charge-offs, but we very much like to give you the feel of how things are going. So, we are very much -- see credit settling out. You can see the trends that continue on the second derivative of delinquencies and that's a very positive thing.
然后,您——只是为了澄清,您提到的“随着时间的推移,它将回归到略高于 2018 年和 2019 年”的评论,我想说那是您的话,而不是我们的。我们没有对全年减值损失提供指导。我们通常不倾向于对全年减值损失提供指导,但我们非常希望让您了解事情的发展情况。因此,我们非常看好信用的稳定。您可以看到逾期贷款的二阶导数趋势持续向好,这是一件非常积极的事情。

There is another factor that affects charge-offs, which is recoveries. And the recoveries have been -- we've been saying for quite some time, recoveries are lower than usual because of the very low charge-offs we saw over the past three years. So that, all else equal, pushes up net losses relative to pre-pandemic levels. And that impact is probably larger and more prolonged for us than some of our competitors, because we tend to have higher recovery rates than the industry probably as a result of our business mix and our strategy, and we tend to work most of our recoveries in-house rather than selling debt. So, we see a longer tail of recoveries from past charge-offs than most do.
还有一个影响冲销的因素是回收。我们已经说过一段时间,回收率低于正常水平,因为在过去三年中,我们看到的冲销非常低。因此,在其他条件相同的情况下,这推高了净损失,相对于疫情前的水平。这个影响对我们来说可能比一些竞争对手更大且更持久,因为我们往往拥有比行业更高的回收率,这可能是由于我们的业务组合和战略所致,并且我们倾向于在内部处理大部分回收,而不是出售债务。因此,我们看到的过去冲销的回收尾部比大多数人更长。

So, by the way, the recoveries, we had talked about recoveries, they're probably sort of been at their bottom in terms of that brownout and over time probably heading in a more positive direction, but that also impacts the relationship between charge-offs pre-pandemic and where they are today.
所以,顺便提一下,回收情况,我们曾谈到过回收情况,它们可能在那次停电的底部,随着时间的推移可能朝着更积极的方向发展,但这也影响了疫情前的核销与现在的关系。

So, pulling way up, we don't have guidance for credit for the year. We continue to be very happy about charge-offs the way after years of -- after a long period of normalization that charge-offs are settling out. We've given -- we just wanted to flag that the seasonality, let's just comment -- let's pause for a second on the seasonality. It still remains to be seen whether the tax refunds are just lower, end of story, or whether they're later. The key thing right now is they are lower cumulatively than they have been -- than they were pre-pandemic for this period of time. And what we'll take a look at is how it plays out from here to see how much was just later and how much was lower. But what we're saying is to the extent that it's lower, then that impacts in the very near term the charge-off numbers that we had talked about before. But it doesn't change our view about credit settling out, doesn't change our view about very positively about the consumer, about credit performance. But it's just something we wanted to flag across both the credit card and auto business.
所以,从整体上看,我们对今年的信贷没有指导意见。我们对冲销的情况感到非常满意,经过多年的正常化,冲销正在稳定下来。我们只是想提醒一下季节性,让我们暂停一下谈谈季节性。目前仍需观察税收退款是否只是减少,或者是否只是延迟。关键是,目前的累计退款低于疫情前的水平。我们将观察接下来的情况,以了解其中有多少是延迟的,多少是减少的。但我们所说的是,如果退款减少,那么这在短期内会影响我们之前提到的冲销数字。但这并不改变我们对信贷稳定的看法,也不改变我们对消费者和信贷表现的非常积极的看法。这只是我们想在信用卡和汽车业务中提醒的一点。

Rick Shane 瑞克·香农

Thank you. Very helpful.
谢谢。非常有帮助。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please? 下一个问题,请?

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore ISI. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。请继续。

John Pancari 约翰·潘卡里

Good afternoon. I guess back to the Discover combination, any update to your thoughts around the timing of the deal close? I know the Fed and the OCC just extended the comment period. And I know you put out there you expect late '24, early '25. So, any change in terms of your expectation around the timing of the close or any of the key financial metrics that you set out?
下午好。我想回到 Discover 的合并,关于交易完成的时间你有什么更新的想法吗?我知道美联储和 OCC 刚刚延长了评论期。我也知道你提到你预计在 2024 年末或 2025 年初完成。那么,关于交易完成的时间或你设定的任何关键财务指标,是否有任何变化?

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Okay. Thanks, John. So, let me comment on the Federal Reserve and the OCC extending the comment period. It's standard practice for the Federal Reserve to extend the comment period on bank mergers. We expected the extension and we don't take any signaling on our deal from the Fed's decision here. So, with respect to the overall timing, the Fed and the OCC typically take several months to work through bank merger applications in consultation with the DOJ on competition questions and they engage frequently with our team along the way. And of course, that process is underway and we continue to have the same views about the timing of all of this that we did at the time of the announcement.
好的。谢谢你,约翰。那么,我来评论一下美联储和 OCC 延长评论期的事。这是美联储对银行合并延长评论期的标准做法。我们预期会有延长,我们并不认为美联储的决定对我们的交易有任何信号。因此,关于整体时间,美联储和 OCC 通常需要几个月的时间来处理银行合并申请,并与司法部就竞争问题进行咨询,他们在此过程中与我们的团队频繁沟通。当然,这一过程正在进行中,我们对所有这些事情的时间看法与公告时保持一致。

John Pancari 约翰·潘卡里

Okay. Great. Thanks. And then, separately, just regarding the -- your expectation on the CET1 front, for a pro forma CET1 ratio of about just shy of 14%. Any change to that expectation? And any change to your thoughts around buyback activity in the near term? Could you remain active on that front? Thanks.
好的。很好。谢谢。然后,关于您的 CET1 预期,预计 CET1 比率大约接近 14%。对此预期有任何变化吗?以及您对近期回购活动的看法有任何变化吗?您能在这方面保持活跃吗?谢谢。

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Yeah, John, with respect to the deal, I'll just say, as we talked about when we announced it, we at the time used a blend of consensus estimates of where we would have the CET1 at the time of close. There's a number of variables that are going to move between now and Legal Day One, not just the standalone performance of each of our companies, but balance sheet marks, some of which are driven by credit and stock price. And so, I'm not going to be in the business of recasting every time a little number moves, but I will say our valuation of the deal considered a wide range of outcomes, and so we remain just as excited today about the financial and strategic benefits of the transaction as we did when we announced the deal.
是的,约翰,关于这笔交易,我只想说,正如我们在宣布时所讨论的,我们当时使用了对关闭时 CET1 的共识估计的混合。现在到法律第一天之间会有许多变量变化,不仅仅是我们每家公司独立的表现,还有一些由信用和股价驱动的资产负债表标记。因此,我不会在每次小数字变化时重新调整,但我会说我们对这笔交易的估值考虑了广泛的结果,因此我们今天对交易的财务和战略利益的兴奋程度与宣布交易时一样。

With respect to our standalone repurchases, Capital One's, I'll note that the agreement with Discover does not prohibit us from buying shares. I noted in my prepared remarks, we were blacked out for a period leading up to the deal. And afterwards, the SEC has safe harbor rules that limit the daily average amount of purchases we can do for a period of time after the announcement. So, as a result of those limitations, Q1 had a pace that was less than what we've done in recent quarters. I will also just note that there's also blackout restrictions on repurchases during the proxy vote period. But again, outside of those blackouts, we're not prohibited and we're able to continue repurchasing shares.
关于我们的独立回购,Capital One 的,我要指出与 Discover 的协议并不禁止我们购买股票。我在准备的发言中提到,在交易前的一段时间内我们处于禁售期。之后,SEC 有安全港规则,限制我们在公告后的一段时间内每日平均购买的金额。因此,由于这些限制,第一季度的回购速度低于我们最近几个季度的水平。我还要指出,在代理投票期间也有回购的禁售限制。但再次强调,除了这些禁售期,我们并不被禁止,能够继续回购股票。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please? 下一个问题,请?

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Moshe Orenbuch。请继续。

Moshe Orenbuch 摩西·奥伦布赫

Great. Thanks. Rich, putting aside the tax refund thing, I mean, you're -- we're sitting here looking, you've still got what has been a somewhat persistently high inflation environment and the potential for increases in unemployment. Given the nature of your portfolio, you've got kind of lower-end consumer and higher-end consumer, how do you think about that, those factors in terms of thinking about what type of charge-off level you're going to reach over some period of time, not a particular point in time, but over some point in the next year or two, like where you think about that? Are they driving a higher level of charge-off expectations? Or how should we think about that?
很好。谢谢。Rich,撇开退税的事情,我是说,你——我们坐在这里看,你仍然面临着一个相对持续的高通胀环境和失业率上升的潜在可能性。考虑到你的投资组合的性质,你有低端消费者和高端消费者,你如何看待这些因素,以考虑在未来一段时间内你将达到什么样的冲销水平,而不是某个特定的时间点,而是在接下来一两年中的某个时间点,你是如何考虑的?这些因素是否推动了更高的冲销预期?或者我们应该如何看待这一点?

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Moshe, so our -- I think what you're partly getting at is because we have part of our portfolio is subprime consumers, how do we feel about how they're performing and sort of in the context of an environment of higher inflation and so on. Let me just comment a little bit about the subprime consumer.
摩西,我认为你部分想表达的是因为我们的投资组合中有一部分是次级消费者,我们对他们的表现感到如何,以及在高通胀等环境下的情况。让我稍微评论一下次级消费者。

In the global financial crisis, we observed that credit metrics in subprime moved earlier in both directions. Subprime, we saw that, but then we saw sort of everything move proportionally. In fact, subprime moved frankly somewhat less proportionally than prime as a multiple, but obviously all portfolios worsened quite a bit during the global financial crisis. In the pandemic, subprime credit improved more and more quickly than prime, but it also began to normalize more quickly, too. And of course, that's in the context of lower income consumers seeing disproportionate benefits of government aid and then unwinding that over time. And subprime is, of course, not synonymous with lower income, although they are somewhat correlated.
在全球金融危机中,我们观察到次级贷款的信用指标在两个方向上都提前变化。我们看到了次级贷款,但随后我们看到几乎所有的东西都成比例地移动。事实上,次级贷款的变化在倍数上实际上比优质贷款的变化稍微小一些,但显然在全球金融危机期间,所有投资组合的状况都恶化了很多。在疫情期间,次级贷款的信用改善得比优质贷款更快,但它也开始更快地恢复正常。当然,这是在低收入消费者看到政府援助带来不成比例的好处,并随着时间的推移逐渐解除的背景下。而次级贷款当然并不等同于低收入,尽管它们在某种程度上是相关的。

So, on the other hand, so if we look at how they have been doing, the income growth from – for, let's take, lower-income consumers has been consistently higher over the past several years. And we have seen really quite other than the tax refund effect, which does show up more in our lower end part of our customer base than the higher credit end, really we have seen the subprime performance be very strong. It just worsened faster, and then on a proportional basis, everything caught up with it, but it frankly always seems to be a first mover and it settled out frankly a little bit earlier than -- started settling out a little bit earlier than the rest of our portfolio.
所以,另一方面,如果我们看看他们的表现,低收入消费者的收入增长在过去几年中一直更高。我们确实看到,除了税收退款效应外,这在我们的低端客户群中表现得更明显,而在高信用端则不然,实际上我们看到次级贷款的表现非常强劲。它只是恶化得更快,然后在比例上,所有一切都赶上了,但坦率地说,它似乎总是一个先行者,并且实际上比我们投资组合的其他部分稍早一些开始稳定下来。

So, based on current performance, we feel very good across the credit spectrum. We also -- it certainly catches our attention when we see the inflation specter sort of become greater lately. So, we have a real eye on that. As you know, we continue to look at the marketplace and trim around the edges and so on. But the net impression that I would leave you is, we continue to feel very good about really the full spectrum of our customers. We continue to lean into the growth opportunities. We have for some time just been doing some trimming around the edges and just being a little tighter on the credit lines and things like that credit line increases. But the impression that I want to leave with you is that we are still pretty -- feel good about this marketplace and the growth opportunities there.
基于当前的表现,我们对整个信用领域感到非常乐观。我们也注意到,最近通胀的阴影似乎变得更加明显。因此,我们对此保持高度关注。正如您所知,我们继续关注市场,并在边缘进行一些调整等等。但我想给您留下的总体印象是,我们对客户的全方位表现依然感到非常满意。我们继续关注增长机会。我们已经在边缘进行了一些调整,并在信用额度等方面变得更加谨慎。但我想给您留下的印象是,我们对这个市场及其增长机会依然感到乐观。

Moshe Orenbuch 摩西·奥伦布赫

Got it. And maybe just as a follow-up question. You alluded to or Andrew alluded to the fact that you expect that late fee -- you can still kind of achieve your objectives from an efficiency ratio even with the late fee coming into effect. But could you talk a little bit about your thoughts about any mitigating efforts that you're planning or in the process of doing? Or is it something that you're going to try and use from a competitive standpoint to take share? How do you think about it?
明白了。也许作为一个后续问题。你提到或者安德鲁提到你们预计滞纳金——即使滞纳金生效,你们仍然可以在效率比率方面实现目标。但你能谈谈你们计划或正在进行的任何缓解措施吗?还是说你们打算从竞争的角度利用这一点来争取市场份额?你们是如何看待这个问题的?

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Okay. Thanks, Moshe. So, let's just pull up and reflect on the fact that the CFPB's rule on late fees is scheduled to take effect on May 14th. We are prepared to implement the rule on this timeline if necessary, but ongoing litigation efforts continue to create uncertainty on the ultimate outcome and the timing of the rule. As we've said before, when the rule is implemented, there will be significant impact to our P&L. We expect that this impact will gradually resolve itself within a couple of years from the implementation of our mitigating actions. These mitigating actions include changes to our policies, products and investment choices. Some of these mitigating actions have already been implemented and are underway. We are planning on additional actions once we learn more about where the litigation settles out. Ultimately, these mitigating actions will play through different line items in the P&L and we'll mitigate the impact of the late fee rule on our P&L within a couple of years of their implementation.
好的。谢谢,Moshe。那么,让我们回顾一下 CFPB 关于滞纳金的规则定于 5 月 14 日生效的事实。如果有必要,我们已准备好在这个时间表上实施该规则,但持续的诉讼努力仍然导致最终结果和规则生效时间的不确定性。正如我们之前所说,当规则实施时,将对我们的损益表产生重大影响。我们预计,这一影响将在我们减轻措施实施后的几年内逐渐得到解决。这些减轻措施包括对我们的政策、产品和投资选择的更改。其中一些减轻措施已经实施并正在进行中。我们计划在了解诉讼结果后采取更多行动。最终,这些减轻措施将在损益表的不同项目中体现,我们将在这些措施实施后的几年内减轻滞纳金规则对我们损益表的影响。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please? 下一个问题,请?

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自富国银行的 Don Fandetti。请继续。

Don Fandetti 唐·范德提

Yes. Rich, can you provide your latest thoughts on auto lending? I know a lot of focus has been around cards, but -- and used car prices have been a little bit lighter recently as well as the tax issue, maybe talk a bit about a potential pivot there?
是的。Rich,你能提供一下你对汽车贷款的最新看法吗?我知道很多关注点集中在信用卡上,但最近二手车价格也稍微低了一些,还有税务问题,能否谈谈在这方面可能的转变?

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Yeah. So, we're feeling very good about the auto business. So, let's just pull way up. Auto industry margins have recovered somewhat over the past few quarters. Our origination volumes in Q1 were up 20% on a year-over-year basis and quarter-over-quarter basis, and we're pleased with that growth. Now, there are still headwinds to the auto business. Affordability remains a concern due to the combined effects of high interest rates and still high car prices. And even as car prices have normalized significantly from their peaks, they haven't yet reached a new equilibrium. So, we anticipated the risks in this business tightening up credit back in 2022, I think several quarters before some of our competitors. As a result, the performance of recent originations from '22 and '23 has been really strong and frankly even better than our pre-pandemic originations. And vintage over vintage, that risk remains stable. And as margins have recovered a bit, we're seeing an opportunity to lean back in.
是的。我们对汽车业务感到非常乐观。那么,让我们整体来看一下。汽车行业的利润率在过去几个季度有所恢复。我们在第一季度的发放量同比和环比均增长了 20%,对此增长我们感到满意。不过,汽车业务仍然面临一些挑战。由于高利率和仍然高企的汽车价格的综合影响,购车能力仍然是一个问题。尽管汽车价格已经从高峰期显著回落,但尚未达到新的平衡。因此,我们在 2022 年就预见到这一业务的风险,收紧了信贷,我认为这比我们的竞争对手早了几个季度。因此,2022 年和 2023 年最近的发放表现非常强劲,坦率地说,甚至超过了我们疫情前的发放水平。在不同年份之间,这一风险保持稳定。随着利润率略有恢复,我们看到重新投入的机会。

So, our years of investments in industry-leading technology and credit infrastructure have allowed us to remain nimble and enabled us to make targeted adjustments to our origination strategies where we see opportunities for growth or emerging risks. So, looking ahead, we remain confident in the business that we're booking and bullish about the opportunities for growth. So, we continue to set pricing in terms that we're comfortable with and feel good about the opportunities that we see in the market. And after talking for really a couple of years about sort of dialing back, I think this is sort of a period where it's moving more into a leaning-into-it situation for Capital One, and we're, I think, very benefited by the choices that we made over the last couple of years and seeing very strong performance in our vintages.
因此,我们在行业领先技术和信用基础设施上的多年投资使我们能够保持灵活,并在看到增长机会或新兴风险时对我们的发放策略进行有针对性的调整。因此,展望未来,我们对正在预订的业务保持信心,并对增长机会持乐观态度。因此,我们继续以我们感到舒适的条款设定定价,并对市场中看到的机会感到满意。在谈论了大约两年的缩减后,我认为这是一个资本一号更多地向前迈进的时期,而我们在过去几年做出的选择使我们受益匪浅,并在我们的老旧贷款中看到非常强劲的表现。

Don Fandetti 唐·范德提

Thank you. 谢谢。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please? 下一个问题,请?

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。请继续。

Sanjay Sakhrani 桑贾伊·萨克拉尼

Thank you. Rich, I think your point on tax refunds clearly very valid one. Interestingly though, to your point on the second derivative, that's improved quite nicely even into March. And I think when I look at the tax refund stats now from the IRS, it seems like you've seen a catch up in refunds and it seems like the average refund numbers have kind of come in line with last year, if not slightly higher. So, I think those are improving too. Is there a lag effect there? So like should we see that more pronounced if that's the case in April and May? How has it been in the past?
谢谢你。Rich,我认为你关于税收退款的观点显然是非常有效的。有趣的是,关于你提到的二阶导数,即使到三月份也有了相当不错的改善。当我查看 IRS 的税收退款统计数据时,似乎退款有了追赶,平均退款金额似乎与去年相当,甚至略高。所以,我认为这些也在改善。那里是否存在滞后效应?如果是这样,我们在四月和五月是否应该看到更明显的变化?过去情况如何?

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Yeah. So, I can see that you're a student of tax refunds. Just think of all the areas of expertise that you've developed over the years trying to really get your head around this credit card business, things that neither you nor I thought we would really have to learn. Let me make a couple of comments here.
是的。我可以看出你是税收退款的学生。想想你这些年来在信用卡业务上所发展出的所有专业领域,这些是你我都没想到我们真的需要学习的东西。让我在这里做几条评论。

So, a key question is what are we benchmarking things to? So, relative to -- if we talk about relative to last year, the things were even lagging relative to last year and they've actually crossed over -- very, very recently crossed over the curve from last year, which I think you're referring to. But then, last year, really was somewhat of an outlier relative to pre-pandemic. Now, one might ask well, "Why didn't we just use last year as the seasonality benchmark?" Last year itself was an odd year, and from a credit point of view, with all the normalization, it was hard to read things through the noise. As we watch the patterns this year, we're going to really end up comparing by the time it's done how this year compares to last year and whether collectively this year and last year represent sort of a new seasonality that we have to modify relative to the past. I think it's premature on that. And relative to reading seasonality, it's really hard to look at last year's credit metrics just because there was so much normalization.
一个关键问题是我们要以什么为基准进行比较?如果我们谈论的是与去年相比的情况,那么事情实际上比去年还要滞后,并且它们实际上非常非常近期地超过了去年的曲线,我想你指的就是这个。但是,去年相对于疫情前确实是一个异常年。现在,有人可能会问:“为什么我们不直接用去年作为季节性基准?”去年本身就是一个奇怪的年份,从信用的角度来看,随着所有的正常化,很难通过噪音来解读事情。随着我们观察今年的模式,到最后我们将真正比较今年与去年之间的差异,以及今年和去年是否共同代表了一种我们必须相对于过去进行调整的新季节性。我认为对此做出判断还为时尚早。相对于解读季节性,查看去年的信用指标真的很困难,因为有太多的正常化。

So, we've had an eye on this. We have tended to stick with our seasonality benchmarks, which are developed over a number of years. And I think when this is -- when we're done with this period, we'll sit back and look at it and say, "Did we learn something about the business that where seasonality might be less magnified in a business like ours than it was before?" I think it is too early to tell, but to your other point, even relative to last year, it has very recently crossed over in terms of tax refunds. And yes, to your point, these are things that themselves then have lag effects because people have to get the refunds then they have to make payments.
所以,我们一直在关注这个。我们倾向于坚持我们的季节性基准,这些基准是经过多年的发展而来的。我认为当这一阶段结束时,我们会坐下来看看,并说:“我们是否对业务有了新的认识,季节性在像我们这样的业务中是否比以前更不明显?”我认为现在还为时已早,但就你提到的另一点而言,最近在税收退款方面,它确实相较于去年发生了变化。是的,正如你所说,这些事情本身也会有滞后效应,因为人们必须先获得退款,然后才能进行支付。

So, this is why very much we are flagging a phenomenon that is sort of in the middle of happening. And the key thing will be by the time it's done, what's the cumulative tax refund effect, and we're just kind of sharing with you as we go along. And the reason I'm particularly leaning into this particular one is, because last time, we made a very near-term sort of extrapolation just from our windows of delinquency buckets about where the -- given that in a year -- the high part of the year is in the first half of the year, we were just kind of saying in that high part of the year where things were sort of settling out and I wanted to give that little bit -- we're not revising the number, but just to say if the seasonality patterns are probably driven by the tax refund effect, if it doesn't catch up to historical patterns, then in the very near term, the numbers will be higher than that -- in this very -- this window we're talking about, higher than the 15% number that I said.
所以,这就是为什么我们非常强调一个正在发生中的现象。关键在于,当这一切结束时,累计的退税效应是什么,我们只是随着进展与您分享。而我特别关注这一点的原因是,因为上次我们仅仅根据逾期账款的窗口做了一个非常短期的外推,考虑到一年中高峰期在上半年,我们只是说在高峰期,事情正在逐渐稳定下来,我想稍微提一下——我们并没有修订这个数字,但只是想说,如果季节性模式可能是由退税效应驱动的,如果它没有赶上历史模式,那么在非常短期内,数字将会高于我所说的 15%的数字——在我们讨论的这个窗口内。

Sanjay Sakhrani 桑贾伊·萨克拉尼

Understood. The second derivative looked good nonetheless for March.
明白了。尽管如此,三月份的二阶导数看起来不错。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Yeah. So, look, can I just...
好的。那么,听着,我能否只是……

Sanjay Sakhrani 桑贾伊·萨克拉尼

Yeah. 好的。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

I want to just seize that point. The second derivative continues to be strong. In fact, when you look at sort of all the card players, that you can see the strength of Capital One's second derivative. There's another topic, so you didn't know when you were studying all that calculus that this would be at the heart of what you do. But so, there's lots of good to pull from this. I just wanted to just clarify the tax refund effect, which I think has a little bit more impact on Capital One than certain other players and to point out that we actually think we see that effect in both of our consumer businesses.
我想强调这一点。第二导数持续强劲。事实上,当你观察所有的卡片玩家时,你可以看到 Capital One 的第二导数的强度。还有另一个话题,所以你在学习所有那些微积分时并不知道这将是你所做工作的核心。但从中可以提取很多有益的信息。我只是想澄清一下税收退款效应,我认为这对 Capital One 的影响比某些其他参与者更大,并指出我们实际上认为在我们的两个消费业务中都看到了这一效应。

Sanjay Sakhrani 桑贾伊·萨克拉尼

Great. Just one follow-up for Andrew, just on the capital return question earlier. Can we step up the run rate relative to some of the last quarters as we look ahead? I know there's been a lot of volatility on some of the regulatory proposals on capital. But as we look ahead, I know there's no limitations. But can we see a step up in the level of capital return relative to the past few quarters as we look ahead given your capital levels today?
很好。关于安德鲁之前提到的资本回报问题,我有一个后续问题。我们在展望未来时,能否相对于过去几个季度提高资本回报的速度?我知道在一些资本的监管提案上有很多波动。但展望未来,我知道没有限制。但考虑到您今天的资本水平,我们能否看到相对于过去几个季度资本回报水平的提高?

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Well, there's two parts to that, Sanjay. The first is, given the transaction, we are in the process of submitting a new capital plan. So, that's just a procedural piece. So, once that new capital plan is approved, then we have unlimited capacity relative to the SCB in this intervening period, the amount that we repurchase is constrained to what we've requested.
好的,Sanjay,这有两个部分。首先,鉴于这笔交易,我们正在提交一项新的资本计划。这只是一个程序性的问题。因此,一旦新的资本计划获得批准,我们在此期间相对于 SCB 的容量将是无限的,但我们回购的金额受到我们请求的限制。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please? 下一个问题,请?

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。请继续。

Bill Carcache 比尔·卡尔卡奇

Thanks. Good evening, Rich and Andrew. Following-up on your comments in auto, how much of an advantage is your excess capital position? Are you seeing competitors who are capital constrained and perhaps can't take advantage of the attractive market conditions to the same degree?
谢谢。晚上好,Rich 和 Andrew。关于你们在汽车领域的评论,您们的过剩资本状况带来了多大的优势?您们是否看到一些竞争对手受到资本限制,可能无法以同样的程度利用有利的市场条件?

And then, I'll just ask my follow-up now. As Capital One continues to grow, could you speak to your Category II preparedness?
然后,我现在就问我的后续问题。随着 Capital One 的持续增长,您能谈谈您在第二类准备方面的情况吗?

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Yeah, I'll start, Bill, with the -- go ahead, Rich. Do you want to do the competitive dynamics in auto?
好的,比尔,我来开始,继续,瑞奇。你想谈谈汽车行业的竞争动态吗?

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Here my observation about the auto business is that it's still a very competitive marketplace, but when we see our opportunities to grow, we tend to zig a little bit while others zag. And so, we sort of pulled back for a little while and others leaned in. And my point is really now I think we're leaning in and others are pulling back a little bit more. I hadn't really sort of analyzed it in terms of really capital choices really as much as just the very natural rhythms of the marketplace and some of the advantages that Capital One has by virtue of our choices that we made over the last couple of years. But we'll have to think about that. But I just think this is just very much sort of -- as you've seen numerous times in the past where there's a little bit of an inflection point for Capital One at a time that's a little different and occasionally in a different direction than the inflection points of others.
我对汽车业务的观察是,这仍然是一个非常竞争的市场,但当我们看到增长机会时,我们往往会在其他人走向相反方向时稍微调整一下。因此,我们在一段时间内有所收敛,而其他人则加大了投入。我的观点是,现在我认为我们正在加大投入,而其他人则稍微收敛了一些。我并没有真正从资本选择的角度分析这一点,而是从市场的自然节奏以及 Capital One 在过去几年中所做选择所带来的某些优势来看。但我们需要考虑这一点。我认为这非常像你过去多次看到的情况,Capital One 在一个稍微不同的时刻出现了一个小的拐点,有时与其他人的拐点方向有所不同。

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

And then, Bill, with respect to Category II, well, first, let me just note we're going to be below the $700 billion threshold at closing and the trigger is really a four-quarter average beyond that. So, I just wanted to mention the specifics of what is going to trigger it. But within Category II to Category III, there's really three big distinctions. The first one is losing the tailoring benefit for LCR and NSFR and you can see based on the ratios that we hold there and our conservatism around liquidity, we feel very well prepared. The other two, which are the inclusion of AOCI in regulatory capital and the DTA threshold going from 25% to 10%, those are both already included at least in what was proposed for the Basel III endgame rules. We all know that those proposals are being debated and refined, but ultimately we were looking at those two implications as part of the proposal anyway. And so, we don't really see a big difference in the long-term implications. At least as we sit today again the proposal may take a different form, but from a planning perspective those were two things that we already had our eye on. And so, we ultimately feel well prepared all of the implications of either Category II or the Basel III endgame proposals if they were to go in as currently constructed.
然后,比尔,关于第二类,首先让我指出,我们在关闭时将低于 7000 亿美元的门槛,触发条件实际上是超过四个季度的平均值。因此,我只是想提到触发条件的具体细节。但在第二类到第三类之间,实际上有三个主要区别。第一个是失去 LCR 和 NSFR 的量身定制好处,基于我们持有的比率和我们对流动性的保守态度,我们感到非常有准备。其他两个是将 AOCI 纳入监管资本和 DTA 门槛从 25%降至 10%,这两者在巴塞尔 III 最终规则的提案中已经包含。我们都知道这些提案正在辩论和完善,但最终我们将这两个影响视为提案的一部分。因此,我们并没有看到长期影响的重大差异。至少在我们今天的情况下,提案可能会采取不同的形式,但从规划的角度来看,这两件事我们已经关注。 因此,我们最终感到充分准备好应对无论是第二类还是巴塞尔协议 III 最终方案的所有影响,如果它们按目前的构建方式实施。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please? 下一个问题,请?

Operator 操作员

Thank you. And our final question comes from Jeff Adelson with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的最后一个问题来自摩根士丹利的杰夫·阿德尔森。请继续。

Jeff Adelson 杰夫·阿德尔森

Hey, good evening. Thanks for fitting me in. Rich, I just wanted to circle back on your comment about how you continue to kind of trim around the edges. I think last quarter you were suggesting that the trimming was sort of abating after a number of years of trimming. But given your comments today about how you're continuing to lean in, how the U.S. consumer remains a strength of source, how are you thinking about potentially opening up the credit box a little bit more from here? And relatedly, does the pending deal with Discover factor into how you're thinking about allocating capital at all into more growth at this point?
嘿,晚上好。谢谢你抽时间见我。Rich,我想回到你关于如何继续在边缘修剪的评论。我记得上个季度你提到修剪在经过多年的修剪后似乎有所减缓。但考虑到你今天提到的你仍在继续加大力度,美国消费者仍然是一个强劲的来源,你是如何考虑在此基础上可能进一步放宽信贷政策的?另外,和 Discover 的待定交易是否会影响你在此时如何考虑将资本分配到更多增长中?

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Thanks, Jeff. The trimming around the edges is of course what we do all the time in reactively to not only what we observe in the marketplace, but what we think may be coming in the marketplace. We are very much sort of in the same place we were three months ago when we've been talking about this. In other words, the trimming around the edges and the dialing back was a little bit more pronounced in the quarters during the big credit normalization than it has been as we see things settling out. And the drivers of that continue to be probably, in addition to what I said about the consumer, very much also the observing our credit performance not only just the overall portfolio performance, but very much the performance of our originations. And strikingly, our originations continue to come out generally on top of each other quarter after quarter. Obviously that's lagged data that we're viewing, but we've been struck by how long it's been and how consistently it's been that our originations have been generally on top of each other and a lot of that comes from the trimming around the edges that we have been doing even as there has been some underlying a little bit sort of worsening of overall consumer credit metrics. So, we're in a very similar place to where we were. We feel good about our credit performance and origination performance. We are leaning in across the credit spectrum.
谢谢,杰夫。边缘的修整当然是我们在市场上观察到的情况以及我们认为可能会出现的情况时所做的反应性工作。我们现在的状态与三个月前讨论这个问题时非常相似。换句话说,在大规模信贷正常化期间,边缘的修整和回调比我们看到的情况稳定时更为明显。推动这一变化的因素,除了我提到的消费者因素外,还包括我们对信贷表现的观察,不仅仅是整体投资组合的表现,还有我们发放贷款的表现。值得注意的是,我们的贷款发放在每个季度中通常都表现得相当出色。 显然,我们所查看的是滞后数据,但我们对我们的发放量持续重叠的时间之长感到震惊,这在一定程度上源于我们在边缘进行的修整,即使整体消费者信贷指标略有恶化。因此,我们的状况与之前非常相似。我们对我们的信贷表现和发放表现感到满意。我们在整个信贷范围内都在积极推进。

With respect to the Discover deal, it's not really altering our origination strategy. That's very much continuing as it was before. Obviously, we're very excited about the Discover deal, but I think that with respect to our own strategy, it's really pretty much the same as it was before.
关于 Discover 交易,这并没有真正改变我们的发源策略。这一策略仍然如之前一样持续进行。显然,我们对 Discover 交易感到非常兴奋,但我认为就我们自己的策略而言,实际上与之前几乎没有变化。

Jeff Adelson 杰夫·阿德尔森

And I also wanted to just ask really quickly about the small business card strategy. I know you recently just launched that new Venture X Business card recently. Seems like a really unique value proposition with the charge card component. Can you just talk a little bit more about the opportunity to drive growth there? Maybe how that's going so far? Any early reason to the type of customers you're getting?
我还想快速问一下关于小企业信用卡策略的事。我知道你们最近刚推出了新的 Venture X 商业信用卡。看起来这是一个非常独特的价值主张,带有信用卡组件。你能多谈谈在这方面推动增长的机会吗?目前进展如何?有没有早期的客户类型信息?

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Okay. Yes, Jeff. So, we launched the Venture X Business card broadly in the third quarter of last year and we're pleased with the market response and the customer engagement so far. So, Venture X Business much like our Spark Cash Plus card was developed to help business owners run and invest in their business with no pre-set spending limit, great travel benefits and elevated earn everywhere. And it's a great example of our businesses leveraging each other's innovations because we've taken many of the industry-leading travel features of our consumer Venture X product and combined them with the business-grade capabilities of our small business offerings, including the flexible spending capacity that is designed for larger businesses. So, we have been investing in our small business card program, and more broadly, to win at the top of the market for years and this launch stands on the shoulders of all of that investment, it stands on the shoulders of our technology transformation and is another example in the continuing drive of Capital One to win at the top of the market across consumers and small business. So, I appreciate the question and we certainly are excited by our continuing progress.
好的。是的,杰夫。我们在去年的第三季度广泛推出了 Venture X 商业卡,我们对市场反应和客户参与感到满意。因此,Venture X 商业卡与我们的 Spark Cash Plus 卡类似,旨在帮助企业主运营和投资他们的业务,具有无限的预设消费限额、优越的旅行福利和全面的高额积分。这是我们各业务部门利用彼此创新的一个很好的例子,因为我们将消费者 Venture X 产品的许多行业领先的旅行功能与我们小型企业产品的商业级能力相结合,包括为大型企业设计的灵活消费能力。因此,我们一直在投资我们的中小企业信用卡项目,更广泛地说,旨在在市场顶端取得胜利,这次推出建立在所有这些投资的基础上,建立在我们技术转型的基础上,是 Capital One 在消费者和小型企业市场顶端持续努力的又一个例证。 所以,我感谢这个问题,我们当然对我们持续的进展感到兴奋。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Thanks, Rich and Andrew. Thanks everybody for joining us this evening and for your continuing interest in Capital One. Have a great evening.
谢谢,Rich 和 Andrew。感谢大家今晚的参与,以及对 Capital One 的持续关注。祝大家晚上愉快。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
谢谢。这次电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。您现在可以挂断电话。

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