2024-10-11 JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call October 11, 2024 8:30 AM ET

摩根大通公司（纽约证券交易所：JPM）2024 年第三季度收益电话会议 2024 年 10 月 11 日美国东部时间上午 8:30

Company Participants 公司参与者

Jeremy Barnum - Chief Financial Officer

首席财务官 - 杰里米·巴纳姆

Jamie Dimon - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

杰米·戴蒙 - 董事长兼首席执行官

Conference Call Participants

电话会议参与者

Jim Mitchell - Seaport Global Securities

吉姆·米切尔 - 海港全球证券

Steven Chubak - Wolfe Research

史蒂文·丘巴克 - 沃尔夫研究

Erika Najarian - UBS 埃里卡·纳贾里安 - 瑞银集团

Glenn Schorr - Evercore ISI

格伦·肖尔 - 永维投资公司

Gerard Cassidy - RBC Capital Markets

杰拉德·卡西迪 - 加拿大皇家银行资本市场

Mike Mayo - Wells Fargo Securities

迈克·梅奥 - 富国银行证券

Ebrahim Poonawala - Bank of America

易卜拉欣·普纳瓦拉 - 美国银行

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

贝琪·格拉塞克 - 摩根士丹利

Saul Martinez - HSBC 索尔·马丁内斯 - 汇丰银行

Operator 操作员

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase’s Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. Your line will be muted for the duration of the call. We will now go live to the presentation. The presentation is available on JPMorgan Chase's website. Please refer to the disclaimer in the back concerning forward-looking statements. Please stand by.

早上好，女士们，先生们。欢迎参加摩根大通 2024 年第三季度财报电话会议。本次电话会议正在录音。您的线路将在整个通话过程中保持静音。我们现在将进入现场演示。演示文稿可在摩根大通的网站上查看。请参阅后面的免责声明，了解有关前瞻性声明的信息。请稍候。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

此时，我想将电话交给摩根大通的董事长兼首席执行官杰米·戴蒙和首席财务官杰里米·巴纳姆。巴纳姆先生，请继续。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Starting on page one, the firm reported net income of $12.9 billion, EPS of $4.37 and revenue of $43.3 billion, with an ROTCE of 19%.

谢谢，大家早上好。从第一页开始，公司报告净利润为 129 亿美元，每股收益为 4.37 美元，收入为 433 亿美元，股本回报率为 19%。

Touching on a couple of highlights. In CCB, we ranked number one in retail deposit share for the fourth straight year. In CIB, both IB fees and markets revenue were notably up year-on-year reflecting strength across the franchise. In AWM, we had record quarterly revenues and record long-term flows.

谈到几个亮点。在消费者和社区银行业务中，我们连续第四年在零售存款份额中排名第一。在企业和投资银行业务中，投资银行费用和市场收入同比显著增长，反映了整个业务的强劲表现。在资产和财富管理业务中，我们创下了季度收入和长期资金流入的纪录。

Now turning to page two for the firm-wide results. The firm reported revenue of $43.3 billion, up $2.6 billion or 6% year-on-year. NII ex-markets was up $274 million or 1%, driven by the impact of balance sheet mix and securities reinvestment, higher revolving balances in card and higher wholesale deposit balances, predominantly offset by lower deposit balances in banking and wealth management and deposit margin compression.

现在翻到第二页查看公司整体业绩。公司报告收入为 433 亿美元，同比增长 26 亿美元或 6%。NII 市场外增长 2.74 亿美元或 1%，主要受资产负债表结构和证券再投资的影响，信用卡的循环余额增加以及批发存款余额增加，主要被银行和财富管理中的较低存款余额和存款利差压缩所抵消。

NIR ex-markets was up $1.8 billion or 17%, but excluding the prior year's net investment securities losses, it was up 10% on higher asset management and investment banking fees and markets revenue was up $535 million or 8% year-on-year. Expenses of $22.6 billion were up $808 million or 4% year-on-year, driven by compensation including revenue-related compensation and growth in employees, partially offset by lower legal expense.

NIR（不包括市场）增长了 18 亿美元或 17%，但如果不计入前一年的净投资证券损失，则由于资产管理和投资银行费用增加，增长了 10%，市场收入同比增长了 5.35 亿美元或 8%。费用为 226 亿美元，同比增长 8.08 亿美元或 4%，主要由于与收入相关的薪酬和员工增长的补偿增加，部分被较低的法律费用抵消。

And credit costs were $3.1 billion, reflecting net charge offs of $2.1 billion and a net reserve bill of $1 billion, which included $882 million in consumer, primarily in card and $144 million in wholesale. Net charge offs were up $590 million year-on-year, predominantly driven by card.

信用成本为 31 亿美元，反映了 21 亿美元的净冲销和 10 亿美元的净准备金账单，其中包括消费者方面的 8.82 亿美元，主要在信用卡业务，以及批发方面的 1.44 亿美元。净冲销同比增加了 5.9 亿美元，主要由信用卡业务推动。

On to balance sheet and capital on page three. We ended the quarter with the CET1 ratio of 15.3% flat versus the prior quarter as net income and OCI gains were offset by capital distributions and higher RWA. This quarter's RWA reflects higher lending activity, as well as higher client activity and market moves on the trading side. We added $6 billion of net common share repurchases this quarter, which in part reflects the deployment of the proceeds from the share from the sale of Visa shares as we have previously mentioned.

接下来是第三页的资产负债表和资本。我们以 15.3%的 CET1 比率结束了本季度，与上一季度持平，因为净收入和 OCI 收益被资本分配和更高的 RWA 所抵消。本季度的 RWA 反映了更高的贷款活动，以及更高的客户活动和交易方面的市场变动。本季度我们增加了 60 亿美元的普通股净回购，这部分反映了我们之前提到的出售 Visa 股份所得收益的部署。

Now let's go to our businesses starting with CCB on page four. CCB reported net income of $4 billion on revenue of $17.8 billion, which was down 3% year-on-year. In Banking and Wealth Management, revenue was down 11% year-on-year, reflecting deposit margin compression and lower deposits partially offset by growth in Wealth Management revenue. Average deposits were down 8% year-on-year and 2% sequentially. We are seeing a slowdown in customer yield seeking activity, including CD volumes and expect deposits to be relatively flat for the remainder of the year.

现在让我们从第四页的 CCB 开始讨论我们的业务。CCB 报告的净利润为 40 亿美元，收入为 178 亿美元，同比下降 3%。在银行和财富管理方面，收入同比下降 11%，反映了存款利差收缩和存款减少，部分被财富管理收入的增长所抵消。平均存款同比下降 8%，环比下降 2%。我们看到客户收益寻求活动放缓，包括定期存款量，并预计今年剩余时间的存款将相对持平。

Client investment assets were up 21% year-on-year, driven by market performance and we continue to see strong referrals of new wealth management clients from our branch network. In home lending, revenue was up 3% year-on-year, driven by higher NII partially offset by lower servicing and production revenue.

客户投资资产同比增长 21%，主要受市场表现推动，我们继续看到来自分支网络的新财富管理客户的强劲推荐。在住房贷款方面，收入同比增长 3%，主要由于净利息收入增加，部分被较低的服务和生产收入所抵消。

Turning to Card Services and Auto. Revenue was up 11% year-on-year, driven by higher card NII on higher revolving balances. Card outstandings were up 11% due to strong account acquisition and the continued normalization of revolve. And in Auto, originations were $10 billion, down 2%, while maintaining strong margins and high quality credit. Expenses of $9.6 billion were up 5% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher field and technology compensation, as well as growth in marketing.

转向银行卡服务和汽车。收入同比增长 11%，主要由于更高的循环余额带来的更高的卡片净利息收入。由于强劲的账户获取和循环的持续正常化，卡片未偿余额增长了 11%。在汽车方面，发放额为 100 亿美元，下降了 2%，同时保持了强劲的利润率和高质量的信用。费用为 96 亿美元，同比增长 5%，主要由更高的现场和技术补偿以及市场营销的增长推动。

In terms of credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $2.8 billion driven by card and reflected net charge offs of $1.9 billion, up $520 million year-on-year and a net reserve build of $876 million predominantly from higher revolving balances.

本季度的信贷表现方面，信贷成本为 28 亿美元，主要由信用卡推动，反映净冲销 19 亿美元，同比增加 5.2 亿美元，净准备金增加 8.76 亿美元，主要来自更高的循环余额。

Next the Commercial and Investment Bank on page five. The CIB reported net income of $5.7 billion on revenue of $17 billion. IB fees were up 31% year-on-year and we ranked number one with year-to-date wallet share of 9.1%. In advisory, fees were up 10% benefiting from the closing of a few large deals. Underwriting fees were up meaningfully with debt up 56% and equity up 26%, primarily driven by favorable market conditions.

接下来是第五页的商业和投资银行。CIB 报告净利润为 57 亿美元，收入为 170 亿美元。投资银行费用同比增长 31%，我们以 9.1%的年初至今市场份额排名第一。在咨询方面，费用增长了 10%，受益于几笔大交易的完成。承销费用显著增加，其中债务增长 56%，股权增长 26%，主要受益于有利的市场条件。

In light of the positive momentum throughout the year, we're optimistic about our pipeline, but the M&A regulatory environment and geopolitical situation are continued sources of uncertainty. Payments revenue was $4.4 billion, up 4% year-on-year, driven by fee growth and higher deposit balances, largely offset by margin compression.

鉴于全年积极的势头，我们对我们的项目进展持乐观态度，但并购监管环境和地缘政治局势仍然是不确定因素。支付收入为 44 亿美元，同比增长 4%，主要由费用增长和更高的存款余额推动，但在很大程度上被利润率压缩所抵消。

Moving to markets. Total revenue was $7.2 billion, up 8% year-on-year. Fixed income was flat reflecting outperformance in currencies and emerging markets and lower revenue and rates. Equities was up 27%, reflecting strong performance across regions, largely driven by a supportive trading environment in the U.S. and increased late quarter activity in Asia.

转向市场。总收入为 72 亿美元，同比增长 8%。固定收益持平，反映了货币和新兴市场的优异表现以及较低的收入和利率。股票上涨了 27%，反映了各地区的强劲表现，主要得益于美国支持性的交易环境和亚洲季度末活动的增加。

Securities Services revenue was $1.3 billion, up 9% year-on-year, largely driven by fee growth on higher market levels and volumes. Expenses of $8.8 billion were down 1% year-on-year with lower legal expense predominantly offset by higher revenue-related compensation, and growth in-place, as well as higher technology spend. Average banking and payments loans were down 2% year-on-year and down 1% sequentially.

证券服务收入为 13 亿美元，同比增长 9%，主要受市场水平和交易量上升带动的费用增长推动。费用为 88 亿美元，同比下降 1%，法律费用的减少主要被更高的收入相关补偿和在职增长以及更高的技术支出所抵消。平均银行和支付贷款同比下降 2%，环比下降 1%。

In the middle market and large corporate client segments, we continue to see softness in both new loan demand and revolver utilization in part due to clients' access to receptive capital markets. In multifamily, while we are seeing encouraging signs in loan originations as long term rates fall, we expect overall growth to remain muted in the near-term as originations are offset by payoff activity.

在中型市场和大型企业客户细分中，由于客户能够进入开放的资本市场，我们继续看到新贷款需求和循环信贷使用率的疲软。在多户住宅方面，尽管随着长期利率下降，我们在贷款发放方面看到了令人鼓舞的迹象，但由于发放活动被偿还活动抵消，我们预计整体增长在短期内仍将保持低迷。

Average client deposits were up 7% year-on-year and 3% sequentially, primarily driven by growth from large corporates in payments and security services. Finally, credit costs were $316 million, driven by higher net lending activity, including in markets and downgrades, partially offset by improved macroeconomic variables.

平均客户存款同比增长 7%，环比增长 3%，主要由大型企业在支付和安全服务方面的增长推动。最后，信贷成本为 3.16 亿美元，主要由于净贷款活动增加，包括市场和降级，部分被宏观经济变量的改善所抵消。

Then to complete our lines of business, AWM on page six. Asset and wealth management reported net income of $1.4 billion with pre-tax margin of 33%. For the quarter, revenue of $5.4 billion was up 9% year-on-year, driven by growth and management fees on higher average market levels and strong net inflows, investment valuation gains, compared to losses in the prior year, and higher brokerage activity, partially offset by deposit margin compression.

然后，为了完善我们的业务线，请看第六页的资产和财富管理。资产和财富管理报告的净利润为 14 亿美元，税前利润率为 33%。本季度，收入为 54 亿美元，同比增长 9%，这得益于更高的平均市场水平和强劲的净流入带来的增长和管理费、投资估值收益（相比于去年的亏损）以及更高的经纪活动，部分被存款利润率压缩所抵消。

Expenses of $3.6 billion or up 16% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher compensation, including revenue-related compensation and continued growth in our private banking advisor teams, as well as higher distribution fees and legal expense. For the quarter, long-term net inflows were $72 billion, led by fixed income inequities. And in liquidity, we saw net inflows of $34 billion. AUM of $3.9 trillion and client assets of $5.7 trillion were both up 23%, driven by higher market levels and continued net inflows. And finally, loans were up 2% quarter-on-quarter, and deposits were up 4% quarter-on-quarter.

费用为 36 亿美元，同比增长 16%，主要由更高的薪酬推动，包括与收入相关的薪酬和我们私人银行顾问团队的持续增长，以及更高的分销费用和法律费用。本季度，长期净流入为 720 亿美元，主要由固定收益不平等推动。在流动性方面，我们看到净流入为 340 亿美元。管理资产为 3.9 万亿美元，客户资产为 5.7 万亿美元，均增长 23%，这得益于更高的市场水平和持续的净流入。最后，贷款环比增长 2%，存款环比增长 4%。

Turning to corporate on page seven. Corporate reported net income of $1.8 billion. Revenue was $3.1 billion, up $1.5 billion year-on-year. NII was $2.9 billion, up $932 million year-on-year, predominantly driven by the impact of balance sheet mix and securities reinvestment, including from prior quarters. NIR was a net gain of $155 million, compared with a net loss of $425 million in the prior year, predominantly driven by lower net investment securities losses this quarter. Expenses of $589 million were down $107 million year-on-year.

翻到第七页的公司部分。公司报告净利润为 18 亿美元。收入为 31 亿美元，同比增长 15 亿美元。净利息收入为 29 亿美元，同比增长 9.32 亿美元，主要受资产负债表结构和证券再投资影响，包括前几个季度的影响。净非利息收入为 1.55 亿美元，而去年同期为净亏损 4.25 亿美元，主要由于本季度净投资证券损失减少。费用为 5.89 亿美元，同比下降 1.07 亿美元。

To finish up, let's turn to the outlook on page eight. We now expect 2024 NII ex-markets to be approximately $91.5 billion and total NII to be approximately $92.5 billion. Our outlook for adjusted expense is now about $91.5 billion. And given where we are in the year, we included on the page the implied fourth quarter guidance for NII and adjusted expense. And note that the NII numbers imply about $800 million of markets NII in the fourth quarter. On credit, we continue to expect the 2024 Card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.4%.

最后，让我们翻到第八页的展望。我们现在预计 2024 年的市场外净利息收入（NII）约为 915 亿美元，总净利息收入约为 925 亿美元。我们对调整后费用的展望现在约为 915 亿美元。鉴于我们在今年的进展，我们在页面上包含了第四季度净利息收入和调整后费用的隐含指导。请注意，净利息收入数字暗示第四季度约有 8 亿美元的市场净利息收入。在信贷方面，我们继续预计 2024 年的信用卡净坏账率约为 3.4%。

So to wrap up, we're pleased with another quarter of strong operating performance. As we look ahead to the next few quarters, we expect results will be somewhat challenged as normalization continues. But we remain upbeat and focused on executing in order to continue delivering excellent returns through the cycle.

总而言之，我们对又一个季度的强劲运营表现感到满意。展望接下来的几个季度，随着正常化的持续，我们预计业绩将面临一定挑战。但我们仍然乐观，并专注于执行，以便在整个周期中继续提供出色的回报。

And with that, let's open the line for Q&A.

那么，现在我们开始问答环节。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Please stand by. Our first question will come from the line of Jim Mitchell from Seaport Global Securities. You may proceed.

谢谢。请稍等。我们的第一个问题来自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Jim Mitchell。请开始。

Jim Mitchell 吉姆·米切尔

Hey, good morning. So, Jeremy, as you highlighted, full-year NII guidance implies a sizable drop in Q4 NII ex-markets, about 6%. So can you just maybe discuss what are the largest drivers of the sequential decline, including any initial thoughts on deposit behavior and pricing since the 50 basis point cut? And since it's related, I'll just throw out my follow-up question. I realize the forward curve is moving around a lot, but since Dan brought it up a month ago, can you frame how you're thinking about the NII trajectory for ‘25? Thanks.

嘿，早上好。所以，杰里米，正如你所强调的，全年净利息收入指导意味着第四季度净利息收入（不包括市场）将大幅下降，大约 6%。那么你能否讨论一下顺序下降的主要驱动因素，包括自 50 个基点降息以来对存款行为和定价的初步看法？既然相关，我就顺便问一下我的后续问题。我知道远期曲线波动很大，但既然丹一个月前提到过，你能否描述一下你对 2025 年净利息收入轨迹的看法？谢谢。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Yes, sure, Jim. I'll try to answer both questions together, the best of my ability. So as we sit here today, the biggest single driver is - of the sequential declines is in fact, that we're expecting, is in fact the yield curve. So that yield curve has changed a little bit since Daniel made his comments at the conference earlier in the quarter, but not that significantly.

是的，当然，吉姆。我会尽力一起回答这两个问题。就我们今天所处的情况来看，最大的单一驱动因素是——顺序下降的原因实际上是我们预期的收益率曲线。自从丹尼尔在本季度早些时候的会议上发表讲话以来，收益率曲线确实发生了一些变化，但变化并不显著。

In terms of deposit balances, which is obviously another important factor here in light of the starting the cutting cycle. It feels to us like right now, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks for consumer, we're pretty much in the trough right now as we speak. When you look at yield seeking behavior, that has come down quite a bit. So that's no longer as much of a headwind all else being equal. And then if you look at checking account balances, those have been pretty stable for some time, which we see as an indication that consumers are kind of done spending another cash buffers. So that's kind of supportive for consumer deposit balances.

就存款余额而言，考虑到开始降息周期，这显然是另一个重要因素。我们觉得，就像我在准备好的发言中提到的那样，对于消费者来说，我们现在几乎处于低谷。当你观察追求收益的行为时，这种行为已经下降了不少。因此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这不再是一个很大的阻力。然后，如果你看支票账户余额，这些余额已经稳定了一段时间，我们认为这表明消费者已经不再花费额外的现金储备。这对消费者存款余额来说是一个支持。

And in that context, the other relevant point is the CD mix, where with the rate cuts coming, we expect CD balances to price down with pretty high betas and probably the CD mix actually peaking around now. And then as you move to wholesale, we've actually already been seeing a little bit of growth there. And when you combine that with the sort of increasing view that many people in the market have that it's likely that the end of Q2 will be announced sometime soon, that's also a little bit supportive for deposit balances.

在这种情况下，另一个相关点是定期存款组合，随着利率下调，我们预计定期存款余额将以相当高的贝塔值下降，可能定期存款组合实际上在现在左右达到峰值。然后，当你转向批发时，我们实际上已经看到那里有一点增长。当你将这一点与市场上许多人认为第二季度末可能很快宣布的观点结合起来时，这对存款余额也有一点支持。

So maybe I'll, well I guess then you also asked me a little bit about next year. So I guess one thing to say, right, is that we did have a sequential increase in NII this quarter. And as you may recall at Investor Day, I said that there was some chance that we would see sequential increases followed by sequential declines and that people should avoid kind of drawing the conclusion that we'd hit the trough when that happened. So that's essentially exactly what we're seeing now.

所以也许我会，那么我想你也问了我一些关于明年的事情。所以我想要说的一件事是，我们本季度的净利息收入确实有顺序增长。正如你可能在投资者日记得的那样，我曾说过，我们有可能会看到顺序增长，然后是顺序下降，人们应该避免得出结论认为当这种情况发生时我们已经触底。所以这基本上正是我们现在所看到的。

But from where we sit now, given the yield curve, assuming the yield curve materializes, obviously, we do see a pretty clear picture of sequential declines at NII ex-markets. But the trough may be happening sometime in the middle of next year, at which point the combination of balances, card revolve growth, and other factors can return us to sequential growth. Obviously, we're guessing it's pretty far out in the future, and we'll give you formal guidance on all this stuff next quarter, but I think that gives you a bit of a framework to work with.

但从我们现在的位置来看，考虑到收益率曲线，假设收益率曲线实现，显然，我们确实看到 NII 市场以外的连续下降的相当清晰的图景。但低谷可能会在明年年中某个时候出现，届时余额、信用卡循环增长和其他因素的结合可以使我们恢复到连续增长。显然，我们猜测这还在相当遥远的未来，我们将在下个季度为您提供所有这些内容的正式指导，但我认为这为您提供了一个可以使用的框架。

Jim Mitchell 吉姆·米切尔

All right. Thanks a lot.

好的。非常感谢。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Thanks. 谢谢。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Thank you. Next, we will go to the line of Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.

谢谢。谢谢。接下来，我们将连线 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。请继续。

Steven Chubak 史蒂文·丘巴克

Hi, good morning. So Jeremy. Hi, how are you? So I did want to ask on expenses just in light of some of the comments that Daniel had made recently, just noting that contentious expense forecast for next year looked a little bit too light. I believe at the time it was just below $94 billion. If we adjust for the one-timers this year, that would suggest a core expense base that's just below $90 billion. So a pretty healthy step up in expenses. I know you've always had a strong commitment and discipline around investment. Just want to better understand where those incremental dollars are being deployed and just which investments are being prioritized in particular looking out to next year?

嗨，早上好。杰里米，嗨，你好吗？我确实想问一下关于费用的问题，鉴于丹尼尔最近的一些评论，注意到明年的费用预测看起来有点过于乐观。我相信当时的预测略低于 940 亿美元。如果我们调整今年的一次性费用，这将表明核心费用基数略低于 900 亿美元。因此，费用有了相当大的增长。我知道你一直对投资有强烈的承诺和纪律。只是想更好地了解这些增量资金的投放方向，特别是哪些投资被优先考虑，尤其是展望明年？

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Sure. So, good question and I agree with your numbers. I agree with the way you've normalized this year for the one-time type of significant items, and also where the consensus was when Daniel made his comments. And while we're at it, I would also just remind you on the NII comments at the time, the consensus for this year was $91.5 billion, and for next year it was $90 billion. So that was implying at the time a sequential decline of $1.5 billion. And it was because we thought that decline wasn't big enough that we made the comments that we made. So I'm happy to expand more on that.

当然。好的问题，我同意你的数字。我同意你对今年一次性重大项目的标准化处理方式，以及丹尼尔发表评论时的共识所在。同时，我还想提醒你一下，当时关于净利息收入的评论，今年的共识是 915 亿美元，明年是 900 亿美元。这意味着当时预计会有 15 亿美元的连续下降。正是因为我们认为这种下降幅度不够大，所以我们才发表了相关评论。我很乐意对此进行更详细的说明。

But anyway, to expenses, yes, so if you start for the sake of argument with a base of $90 billion, obviously inflation is normalizing and obviously we're always trying to generate efficiencies to offset inflation. But that having been said, if you assume 3% for the sake of argument on that base, that's a few billion dollars right out of the gates that we're working against, so that's one thing.

但无论如何，关于开支，是的，所以如果为了讨论的缘故以 900 亿美元为基础开始，显然通货膨胀正在正常化，显然我们总是试图通过提高效率来抵消通货膨胀。但话虽如此，如果为了讨论的缘故假设在这个基础上有 3%的增长，那就是我们一开始就要应对的几十亿美元的问题，所以这是一个方面。

The other thing is that we have continued to execute on our growth strategies this year, so there's a not insignificant amount of annualization. You can't quite see that in the fourth quarter numbers, because of the seasonality of incentive comp, but if you were to strip that out, you would see probably some sequential increases and so there's some manualization as an additional headwind.

另一件事是，我们今年继续执行我们的增长战略，因此有相当可观的年度化。由于激励补偿的季节性因素，你在第四季度的数字中看不太出来，但如果你剔除这些因素，你可能会看到一些连续的增长，因此还有一些年度化作为额外的阻力。

The other thing that's worth noting is that we do expect fees and volume-related businesses to grow next year. And so all else being equal, that would come with a higher expense loading. So when you assemble all those, that goes a long way to explain why sort of that consensus number that is slightly below $94 billion just seemed light.

另一件值得注意的事情是，我们确实预计明年的费用和与交易量相关的业务将会增长。因此，其他条件不变的情况下，这将伴随着更高的费用负担。因此，当你把所有这些因素结合在一起时，这在很大程度上解释了为什么那个略低于 940 亿美元的共识数字看起来有些轻。

In terms of priorities and investments, really nothing has changed. Like the strategy hasn't changed. The strategy hasn't changed and the plans haven't changed and we're just kind of executing with the same long-term perspective that we've always had.

在优先事项和投资方面，实际上没有任何变化。战略没有改变。战略没有改变，计划也没有改变，我们只是以我们一直以来的相同长期视角来执行。

I would note that relative to NII, obviously we're in the third quarter now and not the fourth quarter. In the old days, we did used to give you the guidance until investor day in late February. So we will give you formal expense guidance next quarter for both well for expenses and NII next quarter, but especially on expenses we are in the middle of the budget cycle right now so we probably have a little less visibility there than we do at the margin on the NII.

我想指出，相对于净利息收入，显然我们现在处于第三季度而不是第四季度。过去，我们确实会在二月底的投资者日之前给出指导。因此，我们将在下个季度为费用和净利息收入提供正式的指导，但特别是在费用方面，我们现在正处于预算周期的中间阶段，所以在这方面的可见性可能比净利息收入的边际要少一些。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

And can you just give you a view of expense a little bit? You call expenses very often. I call investments. And if you actually go back to investor day, that you'll see that we're adding private bankers in asset wealth management. We're adding ETF in asset wealth management. We're adding private bankers in international private banking. We're growing chase wealth management. We've added some branches across the United States of America. We think there are huge opportunities in the innovation economy that takes bankers and certain technologies, stuff like that. Our goal is to gain share, and everything we do, we get really good returns on it.

你能稍微谈谈费用吗？你经常称之为费用，而我称之为投资。如果你回顾一下投资者日，你会看到我们在资产财富管理中增加了私人银行家。我们在资产财富管理中增加了 ETF。我们在国际私人银行中增加了私人银行家。我们正在发展 Chase 财富管理。我们在美国各地增加了一些分行。我们认为创新经济中有巨大的机会，这需要银行家和某些技术之类的东西。我们的目标是获得市场份额，我们所做的一切都能获得非常好的回报。

So I look at that, these are opportunities for us. These are not expenses that we have to actually punish ourself on. And we do get, and we show you kind of extensively the cost and productivity on various things. And also AI is going to go up a little bit. And I would put that as a category that's going to generate great stuff over time.

所以我看这些，这些是我们的机会。这些不是我们必须惩罚自己的开支。我们确实会展示各种事物的成本和生产力。而且人工智能也会稍微上升。我会把它归为一个随着时间推移会产生巨大成果的类别。

Steven Chubak 史蒂文·丘巴克

No, thank you both for the color. Just a quick follow-up from me just drilling down into NII. It appears you redeployed a fair amount of cash or excess reserves at the Fed into securities. We saw the yield expand, which was encouraging despite the pressure at both the long end and SOFR contraction in the corridor. I was hoping you could just speak to your appetite to extend duration in this environment? I know that you've had some aversion to that in the past, but do you anticipate redeploying additional access liquidity just amid the expectation for deeper rate cuts?

不，谢谢你们两位提供的信息。我只是想进一步了解一下净利息收入。看起来你们将相当数量的现金或在美联储的超额准备金重新部署到证券中。我们看到收益率扩大，这令人鼓舞，尽管在长端和 SOFR 走廊收缩方面都有压力。我希望你能谈谈在这种环境下延长久期的意愿？我知道你们过去对此有些抵触，但你们是否预期在更大幅度降息的预期下重新部署更多的流动性？

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Yes, sure. So on extending duration, Steve, you know this obviously, but I just think it's important to say that all SQL, extending duration doesn't change expected NII if you assume that the policy rate follows the forwards, right? So point one. Point two, I think the curve remains inverted and so even if you don't believe that the policy rate follows the forwards, extending right now is actually a headwind to short-term NII. Like, that's not, that wouldn't be a consideration for us either way, but I just think that's worth saying for the broader audience, it's quite different from the situation that you have with the numbers.

是的，当然。所以在延长期限方面，Steve，你显然知道这一点，但我只是认为有必要说明，所有 SQL，延长期限不会改变预期的净利息收入（NII），如果你假设政策利率遵循远期利率，对吧？所以这是第一点。第二点，我认为曲线仍然是倒挂的，所以即使你不相信政策利率会遵循远期利率，现在延长实际上对短期净利息收入（NII）是一个逆风。这对我们来说无论如何都不是一个考虑因素，但我只是认为值得为更广泛的观众说明，这与您在数字中遇到的情况有很大不同。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

More than 6%. So like…

超过 6%。所以像……

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Yes. Now, so when we think about the question of extending duration and really managing duration right now, a couple of things to say. So obviously a lot of different versions of duration, but one number that we disclose is the EAR. When the 10-Q comes out, you'll see that that number is a little bit lower. It'll come down from 2.8 to about 2.1 if our current estimates are correct. That's for a number of reasons, some of which are passive, but some of those are active choices to extend duration a little bit.

是的。那么，当我们考虑延长期限和现在真正管理期限的问题时，有几件事情要说。显然，期限有很多不同的版本，但我们披露的一个数字是 EAR。当 10-Q 出来时，你会看到那个数字稍微低了一点。如果我们的当前估计是正确的，它将从 2.8 降到大约 2.1。这有多种原因，其中一些是被动的，但其中一些是主动选择稍微延长期限。

And in the end, the choice to manage and extend duration is really about balancing the volatility of NII against protecting the company from extreme scenarios on either side. And so right now, if we wanted to expand as a result of different factors, we certainly could. We have the capacity inside the portfolio. But, you know, for now, we're comfortable with where we are.

最终，管理和延长期限的选择实际上是关于在 NII 的波动性与保护公司免受极端情景影响之间取得平衡。因此，如果我们现在想要因不同因素而扩展，我们当然可以。我们的投资组合中有这个能力。但是，你知道，目前我们对现状感到满意。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

And the one thing I can assure you is the forward curve will not be the same forward curve in six months.

我可以向你保证的一件事是，六个月后的远期曲线将不会是相同的远期曲线。

Steven Chubak 史蒂文·丘巴克

Well said. Well, thank you so much for taking my questions.

说得好。非常感谢您回答我的问题。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Thanks, Steve. 谢谢，史蒂夫。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Next, we will go to the line of Erika Najarian from UBS. You may proceed.

谢谢。接下来，我们将接通来自瑞银的 Erika Najarian 的电话。请继续。

Erika Najarian 埃里卡·纳贾里安

My first question, and thank you very much for answering all the NII questions so far, Jeremy, is just I guess another follow-up. As you can imagine, once Daniel said what he said on stage in September, everyone's trying to figure out the over-under for net interest income next year? So maybe a two-part first question. The second being inspired by what Jamie just said number one, you know, NII is expected to be down 6% sequentially in fourth quarter. I think year-over-year in ‘25, consensus has it down 4% from your new level. So it sounds like consensus still has room to come down and based on the forward curve, Jeremy, it could be a little bit worse year-over-year than the fourth quarter sequential rate.

我的第一个问题，非常感谢你到目前为止回答了所有的净利息收入问题，Jeremy，我想这只是另一个跟进问题。可以想象，一旦丹尼尔在九月份的舞台上说了他所说的话，每个人都在试图弄清楚明年净利息收入的上下限是多少？所以可能是一个两部分的第一个问题。第二个问题是受到杰米刚才所说的启发，首先，你知道，预计第四季度的净利息收入将环比下降 6%。我认为到 2025 年，市场普遍认为从你们的新水平同比下降 4%。所以听起来市场普遍认为还有下降的空间，并且根据远期曲线，Jeremy，可能同比下降会比第四季度的环比下降更严重一些。

But that being said, as Jamie noted, like we have no idea what the curve is going to look like, right? I mean, it's gyrated so much. And so, as we think about the curve, is it better for JPMorgan to have more cuts in the short end, but steepness or less cuts but a little bit of a flatter curve?

话虽如此，正如杰米所指出的，我们完全不知道曲线会是什么样子，对吧？我的意思是，它波动得太厉害了。因此，当我们考虑曲线时，摩根大通是更希望短端有更多的降息但曲线陡峭，还是更少的降息但曲线稍微平坦一些呢？

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Right, okay. You threw a curveball at the end there, Erika. I wasn't expecting that to be the end of your question. But let me answer the beginning of your question and then I'll also answer the end of your question. So we see the current 2025 consensus for NII ex-markets to be currently at 87%, which is obviously lower than it was at the conference earlier in the quarter. So we're happy to see that move a little bit more in line to us. That still looks a little toppy, but it's definitely in the ballpark.

好的，明白。你在最后抛出了一个曲线球，Erika。我没想到那是你问题的结尾。但让我先回答你问题的开头，然后我也会回答你问题的结尾。所以我们看到目前 2025 年 NII 除市场外的共识目前为 87%，这显然比本季度早些时候的会议要低。所以我们很高兴看到这一点更接近我们的预期。虽然看起来仍然有点高，但绝对在合理范围内。

Now, that consists of, I already mentioned previously, that we sort of expect the NII trough sometime in the middle of the year. So you can kind of assemble the parts. You've got a fourth quarter run rate. You've got some sequential declines. You've got a trough in the middle of the year, and you've got a rough ballpark for the full-year. So you can imagine that the trough probably is a little lower than those numbers and then to the extent that growth revolves, resumed in the back half of the year, both deposit balances and the ongoing tailwind of card revolve over that tailwind will be a little bit less than you might have otherwise thought I mean sorry a little bit less than it was this year, but still a tailwind.

现在，这包括，我之前已经提到过，我们有点预计 NII 的低谷会在年中某个时候出现。所以你可以大致拼凑出这些部分。你有第四季度的运行率，有一些连续的下降，有年中的低谷，还有全年的大致范围。所以你可以想象，低谷可能比这些数字稍微低一点，然后在增长恢复的情况下，年后半年的存款余额和银行卡循环的持续顺风都会比你原本想象的要少一点，我的意思是抱歉，比今年要少一点，但仍然是顺风。

You know obviously the mix of those things will play out in different ways and as you point out who knows what the yield curve will wind up doing. But on our current assumptions, on the current yield curve, and remembering that we're in the third quarter now, so we're doing this kind of early, that's what we think. Now…

你知道，显然这些因素的组合会以不同的方式发挥作用，正如你所指出的，谁知道收益率曲线最终会如何变化。但根据我们当前的假设，在当前的收益率曲线下，并且记住我们现在处于第三季度，所以我们这样做有点早，这就是我们的想法。现在……

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Could I just say some -- next time, we should give you the number. I don't want to spend all time in these calls like going through what they're guessing what NII is going to be next year. And I just -- can I just also point out that NII, all things being equal, is a number, but all things are never equal.

我能说几句吗 -- 下次我们应该给你这个数字。我不想在这些电话中花费所有时间来猜测明年的净利息收入会是多少。我只是 -- 我也想指出，净利息收入在所有条件相同的情况下是一个数字，但所有条件从来都不相同。

And the yield curve -- if you have a recession, the effect of the yield curve will be very different than you have continued growth. And there are decisions that are made non-stop by us and the thing that happened in the marketplace. And I just -- I think we spend too much time on just this relevancy. So you get a model -- a number in your model. And so it's going to be less than 87% next year, probably not a lot, we don't know and we don't know the environment.

收益率曲线——如果你有经济衰退，收益率曲线的影响将与持续增长时非常不同。我们和市场上发生的事情不断做出决策。我只是——我认为我们在这个相关性上花费了太多时间。所以你得到一个模型——你模型中的一个数字。因此，明年可能会低于 87%，可能不会低很多，我们不知道，也不知道环境。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Good. Okay. Now, to your question about the EAR. So a few things to say in there. So as I already mentioned, we -- when that comes out, it will show a number of around $2.1 billion. A very important thing to say is, as you know, the experience of this rate cycle has been that our empirical EAR is meaningfully higher than our modeled EAR, which is what we disclosed. And the main reason for that is that retail deposit betas are -- have -- in actuality, even lower than the modeled deposit beta. So as a starting point, you have to kind of adjust that EAR number to be bigger than the reported number for those and a few other reasons actually, there's some nuances around how the dollar, non-dollar sensitivity interact.

好的。好的。现在，关于您提到的 EAR 的问题。有几件事情要说一下。正如我已经提到的，当它出来时，它将显示大约 21 亿美元。一个非常重要的事情是，如您所知，这个利率周期的经验是我们的经验 EAR 明显高于我们披露的模型 EAR。其主要原因是零售存款贝塔值实际上甚至低于模型的存款贝塔值。因此，作为一个起点，您必须调整该 EAR 数字，使其大于报告的数字，实际上还有一些其他原因，关于美元和非美元敏感性如何相互作用，还有一些细微差别。

And then there's your question, which is a little bit about the front end versus the back end. So what you see is that actually the front end EAR has gotten smaller and most of the EAR is now in the back end. So it's definitely the case that, all else being equal, a steeper curve is better for us. But I think what I would also say is that this kind of empirical versus theoretical adjustment is disproportionately in the front end.

然后是你的问题，涉及前端与后端的对比。你会看到，实际上前端的 EAR 变小了，大部分 EAR 现在在后端。所以可以肯定的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，更陡的曲线对我们更有利。但我还想说的是，这种经验与理论的调整在前端的比例较大。

So therefore, in order to answer your question, I would say, yes we want a steeper curve, but having the Fed cut more than what's currently in the yield curve is definitely at the margin from the context of next year's numbers, a headwind -- would be a headwind for us. We remain asset-sensitive to Fed cuts.

因此，为了回答您的问题，我会说，是的，我们希望曲线更陡，但让美联储削减的幅度超过当前收益率曲线的水平，肯定会在明年数据的背景下成为一个阻力——对我们来说将是一个阻力。我们仍然对美联储的降息保持资产敏感。

Erika Najarian 埃里卡·纳贾里安

And if I can ask my second question, and Jamie, I completely understand your frustration. And to be fair, your long-term shareholders really don't care about whether it's 87% or 85%, right? They care about your return on equity. To that end, I mean, it's insane how much capital you generate each quarter, 72 basis points this quarter. And so beyond the standard boilerplate questions you're going to get on buyback and organic growth, yada, yada, dividend increases, how should we think about JPMorgan deploying this capital?

如果我可以问我的第二个问题，Jamie，我完全理解你的沮丧。公平地说，你的长期股东真的不在乎是 87%还是 85%，对吧？他们关心的是你的股本回报率。为此，我的意思是，你每个季度产生的资本量是惊人的，这个季度是 72 个基点。因此，除了你将会收到的关于回购和有机增长、等等、股息增加的标准问题之外，我们应该如何看待摩根大通部署这些资本？

I mean, the world is generally your oyster, right? You're dominant already and you could use this capital to further enhance your business. And again, beyond that boilerplate conversation that you always get every quarter, how should your shareholders think about how you're thinking about the opportunities to deploy this capital?

我的意思是，世界通常是你的牡蛎，对吧？你已经占据主导地位，可以利用这笔资本进一步提升你的业务。再说一次，除了每季度都会有的那些老生常谈的对话之外，你的股东应该如何看待你对利用这笔资本的机会的思考？

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Okay. So first of all, when you say, dominant I'd be very careful on that. We've got some very tough competition. Different, different countries, different around the world, fintech companies, direct lenders and MSP, I want to give you a very specific comment on direct lending and stuff like that. So our goal is always to serve our clients. And when I talk about some of these expenses, that is a deployment of capital. And it's a deployment in a different way because you open branches, you initially experience an expense, but down the road, you need capital supports, the deposits and same for the innovation economy, same for private bankers, et cetera.

好的。首先，当你说“主导”时，我会非常小心。我们面临一些非常激烈的竞争。来自不同国家、世界各地的金融科技公司、直接贷款机构和 MSP。我想对直接贷款和类似的事情给出一个非常具体的评论。我们的目标始终是服务我们的客户。当我谈论这些支出时，那是资本的部署。这是一种不同的部署方式，因为你开设分支机构，最初会有支出，但在后期，你需要资本支持存款，创新经济也是如此，私人银行家也是如此，等等。

If you look at it roughly, we have about a minimum $30 billion of excess capital. And for me, it's not burning a hole in my pocket. I look at it as you own the whole company and you can't properly deploy it now is perfectly reasonable to wait. And I've been quite clear that I think things -- the future could be quite turbulent and asset prices in my view and you -- in life, you've got to take a view sometimes, are inflated. I don't know if they're extremely inflated or a little bit, but I prefer to wait. We will be able to deploy it. Our shareholders will be very well-served by just waiting.

如果粗略地看，我们大约有至少 300 亿美元的多余资本。对我来说，这并不是迫在眉睫的问题。我认为，既然你拥有整个公司，而现在不能妥善部署这些资本，那么等待是完全合理的。我已经很明确地表示，我认为未来可能会相当动荡，而在我看来，资产价格——在生活中，有时候你必须有一个看法——是被高估的。我不知道它们是被极度高估还是稍微高估，但我更愿意等待。我们将能够部署这些资本。我们的股东通过等待将会得到很好的回报。

And same thing with deploying capital, we can buy -- we can go buy $100 billion, 6% mortgages, increase our net income by a couple of billion tomorrow. We don't make decisions like that. The most important thing we do is serve our clients well, build the technology and do things like that. And we also know what the real excess capital is yet. So we're a little patient. We're going to be a little patient and wait, and it will be fine.

同样在资本部署方面，我们可以购买——我们可以去购买 1000 亿美元的 6%抵押贷款，明天就能增加几十亿的净收入。我们不会那样做决定。我们最重要的事情是为客户提供良好的服务，构建技术并做类似的事情。我们也知道真正的多余资本是什么。所以我们会稍微耐心一点。我们会稍微耐心一点，等待，这样就会没问题。

And so that's where we are and that's not going to change. And if it changes, we'll let you know, right? And we do talk to a lot of shareholders and they understand buying stock back at more than two times tangible book value is not necessarily the best thing to do, because we think we'll have better opportunities to redeploy it or to buy back at cheaper prices at one point. Markets do not stay high forever.

所以这就是我们的现状，这不会改变。如果有变化，我们会通知你，对吧？我们确实与许多股东进行了交流，他们明白以超过两倍有形账面价值的价格回购股票不一定是最好的选择，因为我们认为将来会有更好的机会重新部署资金，或者以更便宜的价格回购。市场不会永远保持高位。

过去10年的平均值是1.48，BRK有同样的问题。

Erika Najarian 埃里卡·纳贾里安

Thank you. 谢谢。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

And one last thing. Cash is a very valuable asset sometimes in a turbulent world. And you see my friend Warren Buffett stockpiling cash right now. I mean, people should be a little more thoughtful about how we're trying to navigate in this world and grow for the long-term for our company.

还有最后一件事。在动荡的世界中，现金有时是非常宝贵的资产。你看我的朋友沃伦·巴菲特现在正在囤积现金。我的意思是，人们应该更加慎重地考虑我们如何在这个世界中航行，并为我们的公司实现长期增长。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI. You may proceed.

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr。请继续。

Glenn Schorr 格伦·肖尔

Hi, thanks very much. So glad Jamie didn't say what he's about to say because that's the answer to this question. So we've seen a couple more banks entering partnerships with alternative managers. We've seen limited loan growth for a few years now, market-related also. Limited flows into fixed income funds, yet plenty of growth in private credit in general. And you're one of the best asset managers on the planet, but in my view, less dominant in all things private credit. So maybe you could talk about what things you're working on and why that's too narrow, the view of your ability to serve all parts of clients' lending needs, not just the public markets and public lending side. Thanks.

嗨，非常感谢。很高兴杰米没有说出他要说的话，因为那就是这个问题的答案。我们看到有更多的银行与另类管理公司建立了合作关系。近年来，贷款增长有限，市场相关因素也是如此。流入固定收益基金的资金有限，但整体上私人信贷却有大量增长。你是全球最优秀的资产管理公司之一，但在我看来，在所有私人信贷方面的主导地位较弱。所以也许你可以谈谈你正在做的事情，以及为什么这种看法过于狭隘，无法体现你满足客户所有贷款需求的能力，而不仅仅是公共市场和公共贷款方面。谢谢。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Yes. So let me take time to cover this one because obviously, it is very -- become very important. People are talking about how they're growing and partnering, and things like that. And so first and foremost -- I'm going to talk about very strategic and then very tactical. I think they're both important.

是的。所以让我花点时间来讨论这个问题，因为显然它变得非常重要。人们在谈论他们如何成长和合作，诸如此类的事情。因此，首先也是最重要的——我要谈论非常战略性的，然后是非常战术性的。我认为它们都很重要。

First and foremost, we are here to give our clients an agnostic view of the world and what the best products and services are for them. Therefore, when a client comes in, we will offer them both direct lending on ourselves and syndicated lending or other specialized kind of lending. And they all have pluses and minuses. Direct lending could be done faster, maybe simpler covenants, unit tranche. It is more expensive and you're seeing little things go back and forth between syndicated lending and direct lending, but we're going to offer the clients basically what's in their best interest and tell them what those products are across the things.

首先，我们在这里是为了给客户提供一个对世界的客观视角，以及为他们提供最好的产品和服务。因此，当客户来到我们这里时，我们会为他们提供直接贷款、自营贷款、银团贷款或其他专业类型的贷款。每种方式都有其优缺点。直接贷款可能更快，或许有更简单的契约，单一分层贷款。虽然成本更高，但你会看到银团贷款和直接贷款之间有一些小的来回变化，但我们基本上会为客户提供最符合他们利益的选择，并告诉他们这些产品的特点。

We mentioned before in the past that we allocated $10 billion of capital to make direct loans. We've actually deployed a lot of capital, some of this already been paid-off, some are done. So we are going to do it directly and we are going at $10 billion, could be $20 million or $30 billion, not limited today. I will say today we're extending -- we will do $500 million, we will do $1 billion, we will do more billion, we'll do it sole-handed or do it with partners.

我们过去曾提到过，我们分配了 100 亿美元的资金用于直接贷款。我们实际上已经部署了大量资金，其中一些已经偿还，一些已经完成。所以我们将直接进行，我们的目标是 100 亿美元，可能是 2000 万美元或 300 亿美元，今天没有限制。我想说的是，今天我们正在扩展——我们将做 5 亿美元，我们将做 10 亿美元，我们将做更多的数十亿美元，我们将单独进行或与合作伙伴一起进行。

Very importantly, we are not going to allocate ourselves to one partner. So we have -- and I think we've announced a bunch of co-lenders, but that just creates more flexibility and more size. We're not going to use that flexibility to slow it down, have to get permission for everybody because like I said, JPMorgan could underwrite it and own it like a bridge loan and syndicate it after the fact. So you could -- and we're going to use our own risk measures and stuff like that.

非常重要的是，我们不会将自己分配给一个合作伙伴。因此，我们有——我认为我们已经宣布了一些共同贷款人，但这只是创造了更多的灵活性和规模。我们不会利用这种灵活性来拖慢进度，不需要为每个人获得许可，因为正如我所说，摩根大通可以像过桥贷款一样承销并持有它，然后在事后进行分销。所以你可以——我们将使用我们自己的风险措施和类似的东西。

Again, all in the service of the client and making sure what we're offering them are the best thing. And we're going to different strategy. We're not going to tie ourselves exclusively to one capital provider. I think that would limit what we could offer our clients. Probably we could be more price-competitive. We can do some of the very specific thing and not the solution that fits the third-party capital provider. That's our strategy.

再说一次，一切都是为了服务客户，确保我们提供给他们的是最好的东西。我们将采用不同的策略。我们不会将自己仅限于一个资本提供者。我认为那样会限制我们能为客户提供的服务。我们可能会在价格上更具竞争力。我们可以做一些非常具体的事情，而不是适合第三方资本提供者的解决方案。这就是我们的策略。

We're going to be there, we're going to do it. And we're going to do it in spite of the fact there's capital arbitrage taking place. So if you look at the arbitrage today, where the bank has to hold for things, with the insurance guys, they are dramatically different. That's a disadvantage, but we've had those disadvantages in other business for a long time. We are going to do what's right for the client. Remember, when we do business with the client, we also get other revenues often. So it isn't just the loan, we look at the whole relationship. So we're quite comfortable we can compete. I just announced much bigger lending platforms and sizes and stuff like that. So I hope if any of the press is on, they heard this too.

我们会去那里，我们会做到的。尽管存在资本套利的情况，我们也会做到这一点。所以如果你看看今天的套利情况，银行必须持有的东西和保险公司相比，它们是截然不同的。这是一个劣势，但我们在其他业务中长期以来也有这些劣势。我们会为客户做正确的事情。记住，当我们与客户做生意时，我们通常也会获得其他收入。所以不仅仅是贷款，我们看的是整个关系。因此，我们很有信心可以竞争。我刚刚宣布了更大的贷款平台和规模之类的东西。所以我希望如果有媒体在场，他们也听到了这一点。

Glenn Schorr 格伦·肖尔

All right, thanks for all that.

好的，谢谢你所做的一切。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

谢谢。接下来的问题来自 RBC 资本市场的 Gerard Cassidy。您的线路已打开。

Gerard Cassidy 杰拉德·卡西迪

Good morning, Jeremy, and good morning, Jamie. Jeremy when you guys look at your current capital ratios, they're obviously very healthy. Can you guys give us some color on the new Basel III? We don't know what the specifics are, but as Vice Chair Barr touched on some of the specifics, it looks like capital requirements for yourself and your peers will come down a fair amount from the original proposal. How are you guys thinking about that? Do you have any insights on how much it may fall from the original proposal to where you are today?

早上好，Jeremy，早上好，Jamie。Jeremy，当你们查看当前的资本比率时，它们显然非常健康。你们能否就新的巴塞尔协议 III 给我们一些见解？我们不知道具体细节，但正如副主席 Barr 提到的一些细节，看来你们和同行的资本要求将从最初的提案中大幅下降。你们对此有何看法？你们是否对从最初的提案到现在可能下降多少有任何见解？

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Yes. When I said we're at $30 billion excess, that is assuming Barr speech that the $20 billion goes $12 billion wherever it is more. But it will be more than that because there are other factors involved. Now I would just give you the minimum excess capital. In my view, it would be more, but it is what it is, and we'll wait to see the final numbers.

是的。当我说我们有 300 亿美元的盈余时，那是假设巴尔的讲话中提到的 200 亿美元中有 120 亿美元流向其他地方。但实际上会更多，因为还有其他因素在起作用。现在我只给你最低的盈余资本。在我看来，会更多，但事实就是如此，我们将等待最终数字。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

But Gerard, maybe to give you a bit of color. So yes, obviously, everyone paid a lot of attention to that speech. It was an important speech. But in the end, we actually just really need to see the proposal, because the details matter a lot for this stuff. And so our focus is on hoping to see the proposal, so that we can process the detail and continue advocating as appropriate. I note that you talk about requirements coming down relative to what was originally proposed, which is obviously true, part of the speech.

但是，杰拉德，也许可以给你一些背景。所以是的，显然每个人都非常关注那次演讲。那是一场重要的演讲。但最终，我们实际上真的需要看到提案，因为细节对这些事情非常重要。因此，我们的重点是希望看到提案，以便我们可以处理细节并继续适当地倡导。我注意到你提到相对于最初提出的要求有所下降，这显然是事实，是演讲的一部分。

But I do think we need to be a little bit careful not to fall into the trap of saying that, that's like progress just because the original proposal was so dramatically higher than what anyone thought was reasonable. And I would remind you, what you obviously know that before this proposal came out, it was our position strongly felt that our then prevailing capital requirements were, if anything, already more than we needed. So we've got a long way to go here. And I think our position, which Jamie has been articulating very consistently, is that they need to get it right, the right amount of work and importantly, do it holistically. So it's not just RWA, it's RWA, it's G-SIB, it's SCB, it's CCAR. So that's really what we feel strong.

但我确实认为我们需要小心，不要陷入这样的陷阱，即仅仅因为最初的提议比任何人认为合理的要高得多，就认为这是进步。我想提醒你，在这个提议出台之前，我们的立场是强烈认为我们当时的资本要求已经足够，甚至可能已经超过了我们的需要。所以我们还有很长的路要走。我认为我们的立场，正如杰米一直非常一致地阐述的那样，是他们需要做到正确，做适量的工作，重要的是要全面地进行。所以这不仅仅是风险加权资产（RWA），还有全球系统重要性银行（G-SIB）、补充资本缓冲（SCB）、全面资本分析与审查（CCAR）。这就是我们真正强烈感受到的。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

We just want the numbers to be done right and justified. If they had to go up, we'll be fine with that, too. I just think they should be done with real diligence and real thought and a little bit of thought about cost benefit, what it does to the economy, where it pushes lending and things like that. So we're anxiously waiting to see the actual detail because that's what's going to make all the difference.

我们只是希望数字能正确且合理地完成。如果它们必须上升，我们也能接受。我只是认为它们应该以真正的勤勉和真正的思考来完成，并稍微考虑一下成本效益、对经济的影响、对贷款的推动等。因此，我们急切地等待看到实际细节，因为这将决定一切。

Gerard Cassidy 杰拉德·卡西迪

Very good. And then as a follow-up, in view of this excess capital in your comments a moment ago about direct lending, you look at your current cash and marketable securities on a risk-weighted asset basis, you put it in your presentation, of course, $1.5 trillion. Average loan is $1.3 trillion. When everything -- when the dust settles, you know what your capital requirements are. Can you frame now for us, can you -- levering up the excess capital with more loans, is that an asset might be considered over the next two or three years relative to where you are on a mix basis? I know you're going to grow your loans, but I'm talking about the mix.

很好。然后作为后续，在您刚才关于直接贷款的评论中考虑到这部分过剩资本，您查看当前的现金和可交易证券在风险加权资产基础上的情况，您当然在您的演示中提到过，1.5 万亿美元。平均贷款是 1.3 万亿美元。当一切尘埃落定时，您知道您的资本要求是什么。您能否为我们框定一下，您能否通过更多贷款来利用过剩资本，这是否可能在未来两三年内相对于您目前的组合基础上被考虑为一种资产？我知道您会增加贷款，但我说的是组合。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Absolutely positively not. Loans are an outcome of doing good business. We want to do good business. If it grows our balance sheet, we're fine.

绝对不可能。贷款是做好生意的结果。我们想做好生意。如果这能增加我们的资产负债表，我们没问题。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

And I do think, Gerard, it depends a lot on what type of loans you're talking about, right? So I think in the end, as Jamie says, like it's capital, we're going to deploy it ideally to grow the franchise organically. And that could include loans that are almost good loans on a standalone basis, as well as loans that are part of an overall relationship where we're getting other revenue as part of that.

我确实认为，Gerard，这在很大程度上取决于你所谈论的贷款类型，对吧？所以我认为最终，正如 Jamie 所说，这就像是资本，我们将理想地部署它以有机地发展业务。这可能包括几乎是独立良好的贷款，以及作为整体关系一部分的贷款，我们从中获得其他收入。

So it's the same strategy that we've always had. But I wouldn't think of it as like excess capital to be deployed against a particular product. I would think of it as it's there for a rainy day. Let's hope the environment doesn't deteriorate a lot. But if it does, we'll be ready. And there'll be opportunities hopefully to deploy it against the client franchise or against the stock and if not, we'll return it.

所以这与我们一直以来的策略相同。但我不会将其视为针对某个特定产品的多余资本。我会认为它是为不时之需而准备的。希望环境不会恶化太多。但如果确实如此，我们会做好准备。希望会有机会将其用于客户业务或股票，如果没有，我们将返还它。

Gerard Cassidy 杰拉德·卡西迪

Very good. Appreciate the color and candor as always. Thank you.

很好。感谢一如既往的色彩和坦率。谢谢。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自德意志银行的马特·奥康纳。请继续。

Matt O'Connor 马特·奥康纳

Good morning. So lower rates was supposed to drive a pickup in loan growth and conversion of some of these investment banking pipelines. I mean, obviously, we just had one cut and it's early, but any beginning signs of this in terms of the interest in borrowing more and again, conversion of the banking pipelines?

早上好。较低的利率本应推动贷款增长和一些投资银行业务线的转化。我的意思是，显然我们刚刚经历了一次降息，现在还为时尚早，但在借贷兴趣增加以及银行业务线转化方面是否有任何初步迹象？

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

I would say, Matt, generally no, frankly, with a couple of minor exceptions. So I think it's probably fair to say that the outperformance late in the quarter in Investment Banking fees was to a meaningful degree, as I mentioned, driven by DCM as well as, to some degree, driven by the acceleration of the closing of some M&A transactions. And I do think that some of that DCM outperformance is in the types of deals that are opportunistic deals that aren't in our pipeline. And those are often driven by treasurers and CFOs sort of seeing improvement in market levels and jumping on those. So it's possible that, that's a little of a consequence of the cuts.

我会说，马特，总的来说不，坦率地说，除了几个小的例外。所以我认为可以公平地说，本季度末投资银行费用的优异表现在很大程度上，如我所提到的，是由债务资本市场（DCM）推动的，同时在某种程度上也受到一些并购交易加速完成的推动。我确实认为，一些 DCM 的优异表现来自于那些不在我们计划中的机会性交易。这些交易通常是由财务主管和首席财务官看到市场水平改善并抓住机会推动的。因此，这可能是削减措施带来的一些后果。

But I think I mentioned we did see, for example, a pickup in mortgage applications, tiny bit of pickup in refi and our multi-family lending business, there might be some hints of more activity there. But these cuts were very heavily priced, right? The curve has been inverted for a long time. So to a large degree, this is expected. So I'm not -- it's not obvious to me that you should expect immediate dramatic reactions, and that's not really what we're seeing.

但我想我提到过，我们确实看到了一些迹象，例如抵押贷款申请的增加，重贷申请的微小增加，以及我们的多户型贷款业务，那里可能有更多活动的迹象。但这些削减的价格非常高，对吧？收益率曲线已经倒挂很长时间了。所以在很大程度上，这是预期中的。因此，我不——我不认为你应该期待立即出现剧烈反应，而这也不是我们真正看到的情况。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

I noticed in the debt markets, rates came down, spreads are quite low and markets are wide open. So it kind of makes sense to people taking advantage of that today. Those conditions may not prevail, ongoing conditions late next year.

我注意到在债务市场上，利率下降，利差相当低，市场非常开放。因此，今天人们利用这一点是有道理的。这些条件可能不会持续到明年年底。

Matt O'Connor 马特·奥康纳

And then specifically in the debit and credit card spend that you guys break out, you had nice growth year-over-year, up 6%, flat Q-Q. I know there's a lot of seasonality 2Q to 3Q. I think last year, it was up about 1%. But are you seeing any kind of changes in the consumer spend, either the mix or some signs of a slowdown later in the quarter? Thank you.

然后，特别是在您们分解的借记卡和信用卡支出方面，您们实现了不错的同比增长，上升了 6%，环比持平。我知道从第二季度到第三季度有很多季节性因素。我想去年大约增长了 1%。但您们是否看到消费者支出有任何变化，无论是结构上的变化还是本季度晚些时候出现放缓的迹象？谢谢。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

So I think what there is to say about consumer spend is a little bit boring in a sense, because what's happened is that it's become normal. So meaning -- I mean, I think we're getting to the point where it no longer makes sense to talk about the pandemic. But maybe one last time. One of the things that you had was that heavy rotation into T&E as people did a lot of traveling, and they booked cruises that they hadn't done before, and everyone was going out to dinner a lot, whatever. So you had the big spike in T&E, the big rotation into discretionary spending, and that's now normalized.

所以我认为关于消费者支出的讨论有点无聊，因为它已经变得正常化了。我的意思是，我认为我们已经到了不再需要谈论疫情的地步。但也许最后一次。你会发现，人们大量转向旅游和娱乐，因为他们进行了很多旅行，预订了以前没有做过的游轮，大家都经常外出就餐等等。因此，旅游和娱乐支出出现了大幅增长，非必需品支出也大幅增加，而现在这些都已恢复正常。

And you would normally think that rotation out of discretionary into non-discretionary would be a sign of consumers battening down the hatches and getting ready for a much worse environment. But given the levels that it started from, what we see it as is actually like normalization. And inside that data, we're not seeing weakening, for example, in retail spending. So overall, we see the spending patterns as being sort of solid and consistent with the narrative that the consumer is on solid footing and consistent with the strong labor market and the current central case of a kind of new landing scenario economically. But obviously, as we always point out, that's one scenario, and there are many other scenarios.

你通常会认为，从可自由支配消费品转向非可自由支配消费品是消费者准备迎接更糟糕环境的一个信号。但考虑到它开始的水平，我们认为这实际上像是一种正常化。在这些数据中，我们没有看到零售支出方面的减弱。因此，总体而言，我们认为支出模式是稳固的，并且与消费者处于稳固基础的说法一致，也与强劲的劳动力市场和当前经济上新着陆情景的中心案例一致。但显然，正如我们总是指出的那样，这只是一个情景，还有许多其他情景。

Matt O'Connor 马特·奥康纳

Got it. Thank you. 明白了。谢谢。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自富国银行证券的迈克·梅奥。请继续。

Mike Mayo 迈克·梅奥

Hey. Jamie, I think I've seen you comment on government this year more than any other time in your career. And August 2, op-ed, Washington Post, Davos, you're talking about government. I think it was this week or last week on Bloomberg, you're saying bank merger should be allowed. Your bus tour in August, you were asked, which is my question now, under what circumstances would you leave for government service? And your answer then was, I love what I do. We get it. You love what you do, but on what circumstances would you consider government service? It seems like you'd be more likely to go now than in the past just based on the numerous comments that you've made. Is that right, wrong? What's your thinking?

嘿，Jamie，我觉得今年你对政府的评论比你职业生涯中的任何其他时候都多。8 月 2 日，《华盛顿邮报》的专栏文章，达沃斯，你在谈论政府。我想是这周或上周在彭博社，你说银行合并应该被允许。你在 8 月的巴士巡回中被问到，这也是我现在的问题，在什么情况下你会离开去政府服务？你当时的回答是，我热爱我所做的。我们明白，你热爱你所做的，但在什么情况下你会考虑政府服务？仅根据你发表的众多评论，似乎你现在比过去更有可能去。是对还是错？你的想法是什么？

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

I think it's wrong. I've always been a American patriot. And my country is more important to me then my company, and I think that the government is very important to get this and if you look at the world today, Mike, it is so important that we get things right for the whole geopolitical world. So I'm not just talking about the American economy. So -- and we try to participate in policy at the local level, at the state level, at the federal level, at the international level to try to help -- that's our job. We try to grow economies and things like that. So nothing has changed in my view, in my opinion, or my interest. I just think it's very, very important that we try to help government do a good job.

我认为这是错误的。我一直是一个美国爱国者。对我来说，我的国家比我的公司更重要，我认为政府非常重要，如果你看看今天的世界，迈克，我们必须为整个地缘政治世界做好准备是非常重要的。所以我不仅仅是在谈论美国经济。因此——我们尝试在地方层面、州层面、联邦层面、国际层面参与政策，以帮助——这是我们的工作。我们努力发展经济和类似的事情。所以在我看来，我的观点或我的兴趣没有任何改变。我只是认为我们必须努力帮助政府做好工作，这非常非常重要。

Mike Mayo 迈克·梅奥

So if you were asked by the next administration to serve the country, would you be open to considering it?

那么，如果下届政府邀请你为国家服务，你会愿意考虑吗？

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

I think the chance of that is almost nil, and I probably I’m not going to do it. But I've always reserved the right, I don't make promise to people. We don't have to. But now, I mean, I love what I do. I intend to be doing what we're doing. I almost guarantee I'll be doing this for a long period of time or at least until the Board kicks me out.

我认为那几乎没有可能，我可能不会去做。但我一直保留这个权利，我不向人们做出承诺。我们不需要。但现在，我是说，我热爱我所做的事情。我打算继续做我们正在做的事情。我几乎可以保证我会做这件事很长一段时间，或者至少直到董事会把我踢出去。

Mike Mayo 迈克·梅奥

Let me take the flip side of that question, for those who are worried about you leaving. The other side of the question is, we're on these calls the last couple of years, you're saying the stock is overvalued. And I think part -- I think that's what you're saying. You're saying the stock market is overvalued, and therefore, all stocks are overvalued.

让我从这个问题的另一面来谈谈，对于那些担心你离开的人来说。问题的另一面是，过去几年我们在这些电话会议上，你说股票被高估了。我想部分原因是——我想这就是你在说的。你在说股市被高估了，因此，所有股票都被高估了。

And on the one hand, you highlighted on this call, AI, tech, market share gains, high returns, high capital. So do you think in some way, when you think about the value, your price and your ability to do buybacks, you're thinking more about an old school model for valuing your stock as opposed to a new school model that might put you in the category more tech-oriented firms, especially as it relates to your progress with AI?

一方面，你在这个电话中强调了人工智能、技术、市场份额的增长、高回报、高资本。那么，当你考虑价值、价格和回购能力时，你是否认为在某种程度上，你更多地在使用一种旧的估值模式来评估你的股票，而不是一种可能将你归类为更偏向技术公司的新模式，特别是与人工智能的进展有关？

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Well, listen, you're making a very good point, which is I think we have an exceptional company, exceptional franchises and the price point when you might buy the stock, but I'm not that exuberant about thinking even tech valuations or any valuations will stay at these very inflated values. And so I'm just -- we're just quite patient in that. And I think you're going to have to judge us over time about we've done the right thing enough. And remember, we can always do it. We haven't lost the money. It didn't go away. It's sitting in store. The only time we'll wrong if the stock runs way up, you've got to buy at much higher prices. And I just -- I would be real skeptic about that happening.

好吧，听着，你提出了一个非常好的观点，我认为我们有一家出色的公司，出色的特许经营权和购买股票的价格点，但我并不那么乐观地认为即使是科技估值或任何估值都会保持在这些非常高的价值上。所以我只是——我们只是相当有耐心。我认为你需要随着时间的推移来判断我们是否做了足够正确的事情。记住，我们总是可以做到的。我们没有亏钱。它没有消失。它还在储存中。唯一我们会出错的时候是如果股票大幅上涨，你必须以更高的价格购买。我只是——我对这种情况持怀疑态度。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America. Your line is open.

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自美国银行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。您的线路已打开。

Ebrahim Poonawala 易卜拉欣·普纳瓦拉

Hey, good morning. I guess I just wanted to follow-up. You talked about private credit and the disruption to bank lending. Another area I would appreciate if you can address is we've been hearing a lot about the likes of Jane Street and other market makers potentially disrupting fixed income trading? Is that a real risk? And is there an opportunity for a firm like JPMorgan to actually compete on the private venue side on market making beyond traditional sort of FIC activity?

嘿，早上好。我想我只是想跟进一下。你谈到了私人信贷和银行贷款的中断。另一个我希望你能谈到的领域是，我们听说很多关于 Jane Street 和其他做市商可能扰乱固定收益交易的事情。这是真实的风险吗？对于像摩根大通这样的公司来说，是否有机会在私人场所的做市方面竞争，而不仅仅是传统的 FIC 活动？

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Yes, Ebrahim, the way I would frame that is not as a risk, but as a reality like we've always emphasized in all of our businesses that we operate in an extremely competitive environment. And that applies to -- and that competitive environment isn't limited to competing against banks or traditional financial institutions. It extends in the consumer space to Fintech’s. And in the market-making space, it obviously increasingly is extending to some of the types of firms that you're referring to. Now those firms are many cases, also clients. And that's the same type of dynamic that you see, for example, in the private credit space that we've discussed before.

是的，Ebrahim，我不会将其视为风险，而是将其视为一种现实，就像我们一直在所有业务中强调的那样，我们在一个极具竞争力的环境中运营。这不仅适用于银行或传统金融机构的竞争环境。在消费领域，这种竞争环境也扩展到了金融科技公司。在做市领域，这显然越来越扩展到您所提到的一些类型的公司。现在，这些公司在许多情况下也是客户。这与我们之前讨论过的私人信贷领域中看到的动态类型相同。

So there's no question that the ecosystem is changing. You've got new competitors. You've got changes in market structure, new dynamics. And as with any business, we are innovating and adjusting and making sure that we compete in all the traditional ways and all the new ways. Of course, there are some ways in which being a bank hinders our ability to do that. And one of the arguments that we've made going back to the capital liquidity regulations is that when you come to the impact on the kind of U.S. capital markets ecosystem, which is the end view of the world, it's worked well in its current contract for a long time where some activities were inside the regulatory perimeter. And there was robust participation from unregulated capital of various sorts.

所以毫无疑问，生态系统正在发生变化。你有了新的竞争对手。市场结构发生了变化，出现了新的动态。和任何企业一样，我们正在创新和调整，确保我们在所有传统方式和所有新方式中竞争。当然，作为一家银行，有些方面会妨碍我们这样做的能力。我们提出的一个论点是，回到资本流动性法规，当涉及到对美国资本市场生态系统的影响时，这是世界的最终视角，它在当前的合同中运作良好，长期以来一些活动是在监管范围内进行的。而且有各种未受监管资本的积极参与。

And a world where more and more of that activity gets pushed outside of bank market makers is a meaningful change to that structure that is untested, and it's unclear why you would want that. And we've cautioned that if that's the intent of the regulations, it should be intentional and well-studied. But in the meantime, we're going to adjust and compete to the best of our ability, given the constraints of the current rule set.

而一个越来越多的此类活动被推向银行做市商之外的世界，是对这一结构的一个有意义的改变，但尚未经过测试，也不清楚为什么你会想要这样。而且我们已经警告过，如果这是法规的意图，那就应该是有意的并经过充分研究的。但与此同时，鉴于当前规则集的限制，我们将调整并尽最大努力进行竞争。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Can I just add, so in the private markets, that remains to be seen how that develops. There is a little bit of that, and some people are talking about making more active things in private markets. In some ways, we're well positioned with that, too, because for that, you need liquidity, market making, valuation, buyers and sellers in both sides to create liquidity. So that hasn't developed yet. But we're not -- we may have competition, but we'll be there when the time comes.

我能补充一点吗，所以在私人市场，这还有待观察如何发展。确实有一点这种情况，有些人正在讨论在私人市场中进行更积极的操作。在某些方面，我们在这方面也处于有利位置，因为为此你需要流动性、做市、估值、买卖双方来创造流动性。所以这还没有发展起来。但我们不是——我们可能会有竞争，但当时机成熟时，我们会在那里。

And the second one is the public markets. You have seen reports about dealer inventories, both corporate and treasuries. And I do think that's hampered a little bit. But again, we do it -- remember for clients, so we are a large market makers in both sides of the markets for clients, both credit and treasuries. And a little different than some of the other people just trading for their own account. And so they're both competition from our standpoint, but we're there. We're going to do it.

第二个是公共市场。你已经看到了关于经销商库存的报告，包括公司和国债。我确实认为这有一点阻碍。但再次强调，我们这样做是为了客户，所以我们是客户市场上信用和国债的主要做市商。这与一些仅为自己账户交易的人有些不同。因此，从我们的角度来看，他们都是竞争对手，但我们会参与其中。我们会去做。

We're going to deploy more capital we want. And we would even deploy more capital at lower returns if we really had to do it to service clients. So we're very conscious of it with the competition on both sides. As Jeremy said, we sat here 10-years ago, talking about the electronification of the business and can we keep up with that. And so far, we have.

我们将部署更多我们想要的资本。如果我们真的必须这样做来服务客户，我们甚至会在较低的回报率下部署更多资本。因此，我们非常清楚两边的竞争。正如杰里米所说，10 年前我们坐在这里，讨论业务的电子化以及我们能否跟上这一趋势。到目前为止，我们做到了。

Ebrahim Poonawala 易卜拉欣·普纳瓦拉

Got it. And just one quick one. And Jeremy, you mentioned QT stopping at some point. We saw the repo sort of market spike at the end of September. Just give us your perspective on the risk of market liquidity shock as we move into year-end. How -- and do you have a view on how quickly Fed should recalibrate QT or actually stop QT to prevent some [Technical Difficulty]? Thanks.

明白了。还有一个简单的问题。Jeremy，你提到 QT 在某个时候会停止。我们看到回购市场在九月底出现了飙升。请给我们谈谈你对市场流动性冲击风险的看法，尤其是在我们进入年底的时候。你认为美联储应该多快重新调整 QT，或者实际上停止 QT 以防止一些[技术困难]？谢谢。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Yes, it's a good question, Ebrahim. But I think you've kind of answered your own question in other words, like the argument out there is that the repo spike that we saw at the end of this quarter was an indication that maybe the market is approaching that lowest comfortable level of reserves that's been heavily speculated about and recognizing that, that number is probably higher and driven by the evolution of firms' liquidity requirements as opposed to some of the more traditional measures.

是的，这是个好问题，Ebrahim。但我认为你已经在某种程度上回答了自己的问题，换句话说，外界的观点是，我们在本季度末看到的回购利率飙升表明，市场可能正在接近那个被大量猜测的最低舒适储备水平，并认识到，这个数字可能更高，并且是由公司流动性需求的演变所驱动的，而不是一些更传统的衡量标准。

And side point is just another reason why it's important to look at the whole frame more holistically when we think about the regulatory response in the events of two springs ago. You don't want those types of hikes, and it raises some questions about why there isn't more readiness to deploy into those types of disruptions, albeit this one was relatively minor. But in any case, when you put all that together, it would seem to add some weight to the notion that maybe QT should be wound down. And that seems to be increasingly the consensus that, that's going to get announced at some point in the fourth quarter.

此外，这只是另一个原因，说明在考虑两年前春季事件的监管反应时，为什么重要的是要更全面地看待整个框架。你不希望出现那种类型的上涨，这也引发了一些关于为什么没有更充分准备来应对这些类型的干扰的问题，尽管这次相对较小。但无论如何，当你把所有这些放在一起时，似乎增加了一些分量，支持也许应该结束量化紧缩的观点。而这似乎越来越成为共识，即将在第四季度的某个时候宣布这一点。

So final point was if you play that view through, it's a residual headwind for a system-wide deposit growth, which gets removed. And that's one of the reasons that we feel that we're probably in the trough of our deposit balances at the level.

所以最后一点是，如果你继续持有这种观点，这将是系统范围内存款增长的一个剩余阻力，而这种阻力会被消除。这也是我们认为我们的存款余额可能处于低谷的原因之一。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Yeah. So I just want to add a couple of policy things here. I'm not actually sure they can actually do that because you have inflationary factors out there, partially driven by QE. And also look at the volatility, it's not a risk to JPMorgan. It's a risk to the system. And what banks have -- I've already mentioned the constrained balance sheet a little bit. So the banks will have trillions of dollars of cash and unable to deploy to the repo markets. And is it a good policy to think that every time that happens because you can do it very safely, fully collateralize all things like that, providing what I call flexible financing in the marketplace that, that happens, the Fed has to step in every time.

是的。所以我只想在这里补充一些政策方面的内容。我不太确定他们是否真的能做到这一点，因为外面有通胀因素，部分是由量化宽松推动的。而且看看波动性，这对摩根大通来说不是风险，而是对整个系统的风险。我已经提到过银行的资产负债表受到限制。因此，银行将拥有数万亿美元的现金，但无法投入回购市场。每次发生这种情况时，认为可以非常安全地进行操作，完全抵押所有类似的东西，提供我称之为市场中的灵活融资，这是否是一个好的政策，美联储每次都必须介入。

I think that becomes a policy issue that every time there comes some kind of fluctuation in the market, people panic and the Feds got to stump in and provide stuff. And can they always do that if you have a slightly more inflationary environment going forward? So I think you have to be very thoughtful about this. That's why we do think they should look at calibrating SLR and ECLR and CET1 and all these things, particularly for this. So my view is, it is going to happen again. I can't tell you exactly when, but I'd be -- when, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen again.

我认为这成为一个政策问题，每次市场出现某种波动时，人们就会恐慌，联邦储备局就得介入并提供支持。如果未来有一个稍微更通胀的环境，他们能一直这样做吗？所以我认为你必须对此非常慎重。这就是为什么我们认为他们应该考虑校准 SLR、ECLR 和 CET1 以及所有这些东西，特别是针对这种情况。所以我的看法是，这种情况会再次发生。我不能确切告诉你什么时候，但如果不再发生，我会感到惊讶。

Ebrahim Poonawala 易卜拉欣·普纳瓦拉

Got it. Thank you, both.

明白了。谢谢你们两位。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。您的线路已打开。

Betsy Graseck 贝琪·格拉塞克

Hello, hi, good morning. 你好，嗨，早上好。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Hey, Betsy. 嘿，贝茜。

Betsy Graseck 贝琪·格拉塞克

Can you hear me? Hello?

你能听到我吗？你好？

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Yes, we can hear you. Yes.

是的，我们能听到你。是的。

Betsy Graseck 贝琪·格拉塞克

Can you hear me okay?

你能听到我吗？

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Yes, we can hear you. Can you hear us?

是的，我们能听到你。你能听到我们吗？

Betsy Graseck 贝琪·格拉塞克

Oh, yes. Thank you. So, one for Jeremy, one for Jamie. Jeremy and Jamie, sorry about the NII question I'm going to have, but it is more than half your revenue, so I kind of care about it. But when I'm thinking about the trough and then the buildup, QT ending deposit growth, I mean that's part of the calculation for improvement as we go into 2025, right? I should embed that outlook. Is that right? And that's embedded in how you're thinking about it. I know we don't have a number from you for NII for 2025, but it is in there, right?

哦，是的。谢谢。那么，一个给杰里米，一个给杰米。杰里米和杰米，抱歉，我要问一个关于净利息收入的问题，但这占了你们收入的一半以上，所以我有点关心。但当我考虑低谷和随后的增长时，量化宽松结束存款增长，我的意思是这是我们进入 2025 年时改善计算的一部分，对吧？我应该将这种前景纳入其中。是这样吗？这也包含在你们的考虑中。我知道我们没有你们 2025 年的净利息收入数字，但它确实在其中，对吧？

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Yes. In other words, it goes back to my prior point and to the point that I had in the prepared remarks about the consumer deposit balances in particular that there's a bunch of different offsetting factors right now, right? You've got the yield curve, you've got Card revolve and you've got balances, and balances have been a headwind. We now see it as neutral and they could potentially become a tailwind later in the year. And one of the potential reasons for that is one of the potential tailwind -- one of the potential reasons for that is the potential end of QT, but emphasize the word potential to Jamie's point.

是的。换句话说，这回到了我之前的观点，以及我在准备好的发言中提到的关于消费者存款余额的观点，特别是现在有一堆不同的抵消因素，对吧？你有收益率曲线，你有信用卡循环，你有余额，而余额一直是一个阻力。我们现在将其视为中性，并且它们可能在今年晚些时候成为顺风。而其中一个潜在的原因是潜在的顺风——其中一个潜在的原因是 QT 的潜在结束，但要强调“潜在”这个词，正如杰米所说。

You also obviously have a little bit of the fixed asset -- fixed rate asset reprice dynamics starting to flow through a little bit. While we're on NII, just to annoy Jamie a little bit more, I do want to make a point that I didn't get a chance to make previously, which is there is a reason that we emphasized the implied fourth quarter run rate for the Markets NII in the presentation, which is that if you take that and you annualize it, it gives you a launch point run rate, which is significantly higher than what's currently in the consensus and obviously what we've seen this year.

你显然也有一些固定资产——固定利率资产重新定价的动态开始逐渐显现。既然我们在谈论净利息收入（NII），为了再稍微惹恼一下 Jamie，我想强调一个我之前没机会提到的观点，那就是我们在演示中强调市场净利息收入第四季度隐含运行率的原因。如果你将其年化，它会给你一个启动点运行率，这明显高于目前的共识，显然也高于我们今年所见。

And I'll give you the concise version of my usual speech. The changes in Markets NII are almost always bottom-line neutral and offset in NIR. But for the [Technical Difficulty] I'm trying to help you guys with your models, I would just encourage you to recognize what that launch point is, the number of cuts that are in the curve, the fact that, that number has historically and in the recent past been quite liability sensitive. So you can draw your own conclusions about what that should mean.

我会给你们我平常演讲的简洁版。市场净利息收入的变化几乎总是对底线中性，并在净利息收入中得到抵消。但由于[技术困难]，我试图帮助你们完善模型，我只想鼓励你们认识到那个起点是什么，曲线中的削减次数，以及这个数字在历史上和最近一直对负债相当敏感。所以你们可以自己得出结论，这应该意味着什么。

Again, shouldn't change the overall revenue expectation. It's just a balance sheet and income statement geography issue, but just for the sake of helping you tidy up models, I wanted to make that point.

再一次，这不应该改变整体收入预期。这只是资产负债表和损益表的地理问题，但为了帮助您整理模型，我想指出这一点。

Betsy Graseck 贝琪·格拉塞克

And so Daniel's comments in September were on NII in total or NII ex-Markets, could you...

因此，丹尼尔在九月份的评论是关于总净利息收入还是剔除市场的净利息收入，你能否...

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Those were core NII or NII ex. So again, reiterating at the time, the '24 consensus was $91.5 billion, the '25 consensus was $90 billion on NII ex. And our point was that, that number, which remains an asset-sensitive number, indicated an insufficient amount of sequential decline year-on-year. The current consensus as we see it for NII ex-Markets is $87 billion. And as we've noted, that's closer, albeit maybe still a little bit toppy.

那些是核心 NII 或 NII ex。因此，再次重申，当时的'24 共识是 915 亿美元，'25 共识是 900 亿美元的 NII ex。我们的观点是，这个数字，仍然是一个资产敏感的数字，表明逐年递减的幅度不够。我们目前看到的 NII ex-Markets 的共识是 870 亿美元。正如我们所指出的，这个数字更接近，尽管可能仍然有点偏高。

Betsy Graseck 贝琪·格拉塞克

Okay. And then one for Jamie. Jamie, we did talk already quite a bit about the capital that you have, capital in store. Just wanted to understand how you're thinking about that opportunity set that's in front of you with regard to using it for potentially portfolio acquisitions. I realize that depositories are not on the docket, but we all know there's portfolios out there that might be looking for a home. And could you give us a sense as to how interested you might be in acquiring assets at this stage?

好的。然后是给杰米的一个问题。杰米，我们已经谈了很多关于你拥有的资本、储备中的资本。我只是想了解一下你是如何看待面前的机会集的，特别是关于将其用于潜在的投资组合收购。我知道存款机构不在议程上，但我们都知道有一些投资组合可能在寻找归宿。你能否让我们了解一下你在这个阶段对收购资产的兴趣有多大？

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Yes. So I mean always say, assets acquisitions. I mean, I always want our people to be looking at those things and thinking about those things and being -- but if you listen to what I'm saying about my question about the world, I'm not -- it's hard for me to say that we're going to be in the market to buy credit assets.

是的。所以我的意思是，总是说资产收购。我的意思是，我总是希望我们的人关注这些事情并考虑这些事情，并且——但如果你听我说的关于我对世界问题的看法，我不是——我很难说我们会在市场上购买信贷资产。

Betsy Graseck 贝琪·格拉塞克

What about... 那……

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

[Multiple Speakers] Creating credit assets to help clients, that's a whole different matter because when it comes to clients, we earn credit asset spread and we usually have other stuff. That -- if our bankers can deploy capital that way, of course, we want to do more. And our CIO could deploy capital in multiple ways, we would probably do more. And we ask all the time, can we do more in affordable housing? Can we do more in things we're actually quite comfortable? And yes, if we can find ways to deploy capital, we would be happy to do that. But put us in a [Multiple Speakers] stretch.

[多人讲话] 创建信贷资产以帮助客户，这是完全不同的事情，因为当涉及到客户时，我们赚取信贷资产的利差，并且我们通常还有其他东西。那——如果我们的银行家可以以这种方式部署资本，当然，我们希望做更多。如果我们的首席投资官可以以多种方式部署资本，我们可能会做更多。我们一直在问，我们能否在可负担住房方面做得更多？我们能否在我们实际上相当舒适的领域做得更多？是的，如果我们能找到部署资本的方法，我们会很乐意这样做。但这让我们处于一个[多人讲话]的紧张状态。

Betsy Graseck 贝琪·格拉塞克

I'm just wondering about the private label credit card, for example. Is that something that would help clients?

我只是想知道关于私人品牌信用卡的问题，例如。这会对客户有帮助吗？

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Almost no chance. But having -- it's very important. Why I say that, I always tell the management team second guess me. I mean, we've done private label. I know what it is. We've been there. I have a lot of issues with it. But is it possible that something is different one day and a different thing? Yeah, it's possible. So I don't want to cut it off. If Marianne Lake says to me, Jamie, you're not thinking clearly, the world's changed, we're going to change. But right now, I would say, no chance.

几乎没有机会。但拥有——这非常重要。为什么我这么说，我总是告诉管理团队要质疑我。我的意思是，我们做过自有品牌。我知道那是什么。我们经历过。我对它有很多问题。但有可能某天会有不同的东西吗？是的，有可能。所以我不想切断它。如果 Marianne Lake 对我说，Jamie，你没有想清楚，世界变了，我们也要改变。但现在，我会说，没有机会。

Betsy Graseck 贝琪·格拉塞克

Thank you so much. 非常感谢。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our final question will come from Saul Martinez with HSBC. Your line is open.

谢谢。我们的最后一个问题将由汇丰银行的 Saul Martinez 提出。您的线路已打开。

Saul Martinez 索尔·马丁内斯

Hey, good morning. I'm not going to ask about a specific NII in '25, but I did want to delve into the -- how to think about your deposit margin in volume dynamics in the CCB over the next few years? You have seen a decent amount of pressure in the deposit margin, 2.6%, down about 30 basis points as deposit balances have come down, so put some pressure on deposit NII. But deposit margins are still well above where they were when rates were at levels that are consistent with where the forward curve is now has been going.

嘿，早上好。我不会询问 2025 年的具体净利息收入，但我确实想深入了解未来几年在 CCB 中如何看待存款利差的量动态？你已经看到存款利差承受了相当大的压力，2.6%，下降了大约 30 个基点，因为存款余额下降，所以对存款净利息收入施加了一些压力。但存款利差仍然远高于利率处于与当前远期曲线一致的水平时的水平。

So I guess, how do we think about both volumes and margin dynamics if rates do come down, say to level that are consistent with the forward curve? I know the forward curve is likely going to be wrong, but that's the reference point we have. And conversely, volume offsets, you mentioned, Jeremy, the retail deposits becoming a tailwind. I guess how much of a tailwind could they be especially as you are expecting to gain quite a bit of market share in retail deposits? So just give us a sense of sort of the push and pulls of these dynamics that really help drive the deposit -- the value of the deposit franchise.

所以我想，如果利率下降到与远期曲线一致的水平，我们该如何看待交易量和利润率动态？我知道远期曲线可能会出错，但那是我们拥有的参考点。相反地，您提到的交易量抵消，Jeremy，零售存款成为顺风。我想知道它们能成为多大的顺风，特别是当您预计在零售存款中获得相当大的市场份额时？所以请给我们一个关于这些动态的推动和拉动的感觉，这些动态真正有助于推动存款——存款特许经营的价值。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Sure. Yes. Thanks for the question, Saul. And I think you've laid out your -- the building blocks there already. Just for simplicity, I'm going to try to answer your question without referring to the disclosed CC deposit margin number just because that number is obviously the combination of the rate paid on the CCB deposits and the internal FTP into that. And that is a complicated thing that evolves as a function of the modeling of the betas and other things.

当然。是的。谢谢你的提问，Saul。我认为你已经把基础部分列出来了。为了简单起见，我会尝试在不提及披露的 CC 存款保证金数字的情况下回答你的问题，因为那个数字显然是 CCB 存款支付利率和内部 FTP 的组合。这是一个复杂的事情，会随着贝塔模型和其他因素的变化而演变。

So I think it's actually more helpful to look at this simply from a firm-wide perspective and look at the evolution of the rate paid in the context of the policy rates roughly and just set aside duration management and all those other factors. And I think when you do that, what you see is we've been saying for a while that the deposit margin defined for these purposes is simply the difference between the policy rate and the weighted average rate paid of the consumer deposits was unsustainably high.

所以我认为，从整个公司的角度来看这个问题更有帮助，并在政策利率的大致背景下观察支付利率的演变，而不考虑期限管理和其他因素。我认为，当你这样做时，你会发现我们已经说了一段时间，为这些目的定义的存款利差仅仅是政策利率与消费者存款的加权平均支付利率之间的差异，这种差异是不可持续的。

And that was going to have to correct one way or the other. Either deposits were going to reprice at the product level through checking and savings and/or we were going to see a ton of internal migration, i.e., growth in the CD mix and/or we would see a lower policy rate. So as we sit here right now, of course, we make pricing decisions in the context of market competition at any given moment, looking at what the environment is for deposits. But it -- we have not needed to reprice in order to retain bank relationships, which was also our core strategy. We were never going to chase sort of the hot money at the margin.

这在某种程度上必须得到纠正。要么存款将在产品层面通过支票和储蓄重新定价，或者我们将看到大量的内部迁移，即 CD 组合的增长，或者我们将看到较低的政策利率。因此，就我们目前的情况而言，当然，我们在任何特定时刻都在市场竞争的背景下做出定价决策，观察存款的环境。但我们不需要重新定价来维持银行关系，这也是我们的核心策略。我们从未打算追逐边际上的热钱。

We've leaned in heavily to CDs and gotten to the current level of CD mix, and that's been a good strategy. And from where we sit now, we now have the margin coming down as a result of the policy rate coming down. It seems that, that puts us in a pretty comfortable position from a pricing perspective. We think the CD mix has probably peaked. Now on the way down, it's not going to go back down to zero where it was at the beginning of the cycle. That's an important thing to realize. So all else equal, that creates a little bit of margin compression.

我们大力投入了定期存款，并达到了当前的定期存款组合水平，这是一项不错的策略。从我们现在的角度来看，由于政策利率的下降，我们的利润率也在下降。看起来，从定价的角度来看，这让我们处于一个相当舒适的位置。我们认为定期存款组合可能已经达到顶峰。现在在下降的过程中，它不会回到周期开始时的零水平。这是一个需要认识到的重要事情。因此，其他条件不变，这会导致一些利润率压缩。

And then through all of that, obviously, a lower yield environment should mean that there's a little bit less outflow from consumer deposits. As I mentioned, we're seeing a lot less yield-seeking behavior. So then when you overlay onto that what you mentioned, which is our long-term share growth in CCB deposits in no small part as a function of the brand strategy and the build-out and the fact that only about a quarter of our top 125 markets in CCB are at that 15% share number.

然后在这一切之中，显然，较低的收益环境应该意味着消费者存款的流出会减少一些。正如我提到的，我们看到的寻求收益的行为少了很多。因此，当你叠加上你提到的内容，即我们在 CCB 存款中的长期份额增长，这在很大程度上是品牌战略和扩展的结果，而且在 CCB 的前 125 个市场中，只有大约四分之一达到了 15%的份额。

So we believe there's a big opportunity to grow the rest of it and be on track at the type of like average annual share growth of the order of 30 or 40 basis points that we've seen historically, that's how you kind of assemble a tailwind from normalized deposit margin and balance growth in consumer.

因此，我们相信有很大的机会来增长其余部分，并保持在我们历史上看到的那种平均年度份额增长率，即 30 或 40 个基点的水平，这就是你如何通过正常化的存款利润率和消费者的余额增长来形成顺风。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Jeremy, correct me if you think I'm wrong. The abnormal time period was in was in race were between 0% and 1% or 2%. Other than that, if you look at -- if you were going to say what are normal deposit margins in the normal banking business, forget people going after really hot money, that happens. It's 2% to 2.5%.

杰里米，如果你认为我错了，请纠正我。异常时期的利率是在 0%到 1%或 2%之间。除此之外，如果你要说正常银行业务中的正常存款利率，不考虑那些追逐高息资金的情况，那是 2%到 2.5%。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Absolutely. Agree. 绝对同意。

Saul Martinez 索尔·马丁内斯

Okay. That's helpful. So it sounds like you're a little bit above that, but there's still some pressure, but you're not dramatically above those levels.

好的。这很有帮助。听起来你稍微高于那个水平，但仍然有一些压力，不过并没有显著高于那些水平。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Very good returns in business in Banking & Wealth Management. We're growing market share. And when we build branches and stuff like that, we don't necessarily assume current margins. We look at what could be normal margins over time. We're very comfortable, very nice business for you all.

在银行和财富管理业务中获得了非常好的回报。我们的市场份额正在增长。当我们建立分支机构和类似的东西时，我们不一定假设当前的利润率。我们会考虑随着时间推移可能达到的正常利润率。我们感到非常满意，对你们来说是非常好的业务。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Thanks a lot. That's all I got.

明白了。好的，这很有帮助。非常感谢。这就是我所知道的。

Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙

Thanks, Saul. 谢谢，索尔。

Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆

Thanks, everyone. Thank you.

谢谢大家。谢谢。

Operator 操作员

Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and have a great rest of your day.

感谢大家参加今天的会议。您现在可以断开连接，祝您余下的时间愉快。

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