Liberty Energy Inc. (NYSE:LBRT) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call October 17, 2024 10:00 AM ET
Liberty Energy Inc. (NYSE:LBRT) 2024 年第三季度收益电话会议 2024 年 10 月 17 日 上午 10:00 ET
Company Participants 公司参与者
Anjali Voria - Director, Investor Relations
Anjali Voria - 投资者关系总监
Chris Wright - Chief Executive Officer
克里斯·赖特 - 首席执行官
Michael Stock - Chief Financial Officer
首席财务官 - Michael Stock
Ron Gusek - President Ron Gusek - 总裁
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
Scott Gruber - Citigroup
Ati Modak - Goldman Sachs
Ati Modak - 高盛
Stephen Gengaro - Stifel
Saurabh Pant - BoA
Marc Bianchi - TD Cowen
Keith Mackey - RBC Capital Markets
Keith Mackey - RBC 资本市场
Jeff LeBlanc - TPH
Roger Read - Wells Fargo
罗杰·里德 - 富国银行
Waqar Syed - ATB Capital Markets
Tom Curran - Seaport Research Partners
Eddie Kim - Barclays
John Daniel - Daniel Energy Partners
Operator 操作员
Welcome to the Liberty Energy Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.
欢迎参加 Liberty Energy 收益电话会议。所有参与者将处于只听模式。[操作员说明] 请注意，此活动正在录音。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Anjali Voria, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
现在我想把会议交给投资者关系总监安贾莉·沃里亚。请继续。
Anjali Voria
Thanks, Wyatt. Good morning, and welcome to the Liberty Energy's third quarter 2024 earnings call.
谢谢，怀亚特。早上好，欢迎参加 Liberty Energy 2024 年第三季度的财报电话会议。
Joining us on the call are Chris Wright, Chief Executive Officer; Ron Gusek, President; and Michael Stock, Chief Financial Officer.
参加电话会议的有首席执行官克里斯·赖特，总裁罗恩·古塞克，以及首席财务官迈克尔·斯托克。
Before we begin, I would like to remind all participants that some of our comments today may include forward-looking statements reflecting the company's view about future prospects, revenues, expenses or profits. These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. These statements reflect the company's beliefs based on current conditions that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that are detailed in our earnings release and other public filings.
在我们开始之前，我想提醒所有参与者，我们今天的一些评论可能包括反映公司对未来前景、收入、支出或利润的前瞻性声明。这些事项涉及风险和不确定性，可能导致实际结果与我们的前瞻性声明有重大差异。这些声明反映了公司基于当前状况的信念，这些状况受我们收益发布和其他公开文件中详述的某些风险和不确定性的影响。
Our comments for today also include non-GAAP financial and operational measures. These non-GAAP measures, including EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, adjusted net income per diluted share and adjusted pre-tax return on capital employed, are not a substitute for GAAP measures and may not be comparable to similar measures of other companies. A reconciliation of net income to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, net income to adjusted net income and adjusted net income per diluted share and the calculation of adjusted pre-tax return on capital employed, as discussed on this call, are available on our Investor Relations website.
我们今天的评论还包括非 GAAP 财务和运营指标。这些非 GAAP 指标，包括 EBITDA、调整后的 EBITDA、调整后的净收入、调整后的每股摊薄净收入和调整后的税前资本回报率，并不能替代 GAAP 指标，且可能无法与其他公司的类似指标进行比较。正如本次电话会议中所讨论的，净收入与 EBITDA 和调整后的 EBITDA、净收入与调整后的净收入和调整后的每股摊薄净收入的对账，以及调整后的税前资本回报率的计算，均可在我们的投资者关系网站上找到。
I will now turn the call over to Chris.
我现在将电话交给克里斯。
Chris Wright
Thank you, Anjali. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter 2024 operational and financial results.
谢谢你，安贾莉。大家早上好，感谢大家加入我们，讨论我们 2024 年第三季度的运营和财务业绩。
Liberty delivered a solid quarter with revenue of $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $248 million. We again reached new heights in efficiencies, pumping more hours in a quarter than ever before companywide amidst the backdrop of a slowing demand environment. We are excited to celebrate the progress of a Liberty digiPrime fleet that set the company record for number of hours pumped in a month by any crew in company history, low fuel cost from natural gas, low emissions, and record operational performance.
Liberty交出了一个稳健的季度，收入为11亿美元，调整后的EBITDA为2.48亿美元。我们再次在效率方面取得了新高度，在需求放缓的环境下，公司创下了历史上每个季度泵送小时数的记录。我们很高兴看到Liberty DigiPrime车队的进展，创造了公司历史上单月泵送小时数的新纪录，天然气低燃料成本、低排放和创纪录的运营表现。
The Liberty culture of striving for improvement and pushing beyond our prior achievements continues regardless of the macro environment we find ourselves in. I'm proud of our team for executing at the highest operating levels, generating strong financial performance and value for our customers.
无论我们所处的宏观环境如何，自我提升和超越以往成就的自由文化仍在继续。我为我们的团队能够在最高运营水平上执行、为客户创造强劲的财务表现和价值而感到自豪。
In the third quarter, we generated strong free cash flow, enabling a robust return of capital program. We opportunistically increased our share repurchases to $32 million at a lower at -- $39 million at a lower stock price relative to the prior quarter. Since the reinstatement of our capital return program in July 2022, we have distributed $509 million to shareholders through the retirement of 14% of shares outstanding and quarterly cash dividends. Earlier this week, we also announced a 14% increase in our quarterly cash dividend to $0.08 per share.
在第三季度，我们产生了强劲的自由现金流，从而实现了强大的资本回报计划。我们抓住机会将股票回购增加到 3200 万美元，低于上季度的 3900 万美元的股票价格。自 2022 年 7 月恢复资本回报计划以来，我们通过回购 14%的流通股和季度现金分红向股东分配了 5.09 亿美元。本周早些时候，我们还宣布将季度现金分红提高 14%至每股 0.08 美元。
The compounding effect of buybacks and dividends is an attractive way to drive higher total shareholder returns over cycles. We balance our return of capital program with disciplined investment in innovative businesses and leading-edge technologies that expand our competitive advantage and increase our market opportunities in the coming years.
回购和分红的复合效应是一种有吸引力的方式，可以推动更高的总股东回报。我们平衡回报资本计划与对创新业务和领先技术的有纪律的投资，这将扩大我们的竞争优势并增加未来几年的市场机会。
Our success across multiple business cycles is driven by our well-defined competitive moat, differential technologies, long-term growth potential and high returns on invested capital. I want to highlight two of the drivers of our leading financial performance. Number one, we've built trust and loyalty with our customers by delivering a superior service focused on their specific needs. And number two, we've strategically expanded in essential areas that grow our technology and service leadership position.
我们在多个商业周期中的成功是由我们明确的竞争壁垒、差异化技术、长期增长潜力和高投资资本回报率推动的。我想强调我们卓越财务表现的两个驱动因素。第一，我们通过提供专注于客户特定需求的卓越服务，建立了客户的信任和忠诚度。第二，我们在关键领域进行了战略扩展，以提升我们的技术和服务领导地位。
Why is this important? When we look at our relative performance in a softening market, our largest customers have grown during this period of industry consolidation, and our percentage of their work has also grown. This demonstrates the importance of dedicated relationships with customers that are also able to withstand and prosper across cycles and who value quality, safety, and service. Our focus on strategic investment drives the differential experience our customers benefit from today.
为什么这很重要？当我们观察在市场疲软时的相对表现时，我们最大的客户在这个行业整合期间有所增长，而我们在他们工作中的比例也有所增加。这表明，与客户建立专注的关系是多么重要，这些客户能够在周期中经受住考验并繁荣发展，并且重视质量、安全和服务。我们对战略投资的关注推动了客户今天受益的差异化体验。
Focused investments have allowed us to develop new markets and lead technology innovation and operational efficiency in the industry. Let me share a few recent examples. Over the past year, Liberty entered partnerships with entrepreneurs to develop the new gas-rich Beetaloo Basin in Australia. We have taken a significant step forward with the arrival of a Liberty fleet in country. Operations are expected to begin next month. Another example is our Liberty Advanced Equipment Technologies, LAET, manufacturing and assembly division that delivered its first digiPrime pumps in the third quarter. This marks great progress since the launch of LAET just last year.
专注的投资让我们能够开发新市场，并在技术创新和行业运营效率方面领先。让我分享一些近期的例子。过去一年，Liberty与企业家合作，开发澳大利亚的贝塔鲁盆地（Beetaloo Basin）。随着Liberty车队的到来，我们在该地区迈出了重要一步，预计下个月开始运营。另一个例子是我们Liberty先进设备技术（LAET）制造和组装部门，该部门在第三季度交付了第一批DigiPrime泵。这是自LAET去年成立以来的重要进展。
For the last few years, we have supported our frac operations with the design and manufacturing of Liberty pump technology, including power ends, fluid ends, and ancillary equipment. We are now designing and manufacturing digiTechnologies as well as critical components for LPI and PropX. The new LAET organization expands our ability to design, engineer, and package complete proprietary systems.
在过去的几年里，我们通过设计和制造 Liberty 泵技术（包括动力端、流体端和辅助设备）来支持我们的压裂作业。我们现在正在设计和制造 digiTechnologies 以及 LPI 和 PropX 的关键组件。新的 LAET 组织扩大了我们设计、工程和包装完整专有系统的能力。
The success of new technology comes through ownership of the engineering design and the ability to rapidly incorporate feedback from field operations. This accelerates the innovation cycle and reduces total cost of ownership. Our manufacturing strategy reflects a balanced approach to in-house versus outsourced production whereby we can leverage selective key learnings through the innovation cycle with our external partners, which remain an important part of the scale of our manufacturing and assembly needs.
新技术的成功来自于我们拥有工程设计的所有权，并能够快速将现场操作的反馈融入设计中。这加速了创新周期，降低了总拥有成本。我们的制造战略在内部生产与外包生产之间采取了平衡的方式，我们能够与外部合作伙伴一起，通过创新周期汲取关键经验，这些合作伙伴仍然是我们制造和组装需求规模的重要组成部分。
Our PropX division, acquired three years ago, is a leading provider of last-mile proppants handling and delivery solutions and has delivered nearly 400 billion pounds of sand since inception. As the premier provider of wet sand handling technology, we're excited to share several new developments. PropX has recently deployed its new [prop stack] (ph), damp pile delivery system, optimizing the use of damp sand piles for high throughput frac locations. The innovative new [prop hopper] (ph), together with advanced [laser sand metering] (ph) technology currently in testing, offer additional value to our customers through improved accuracy and simplified on-site operations. We are also in the advanced stages of testing a slurry pipe system for last-mile delivery of sand that could minimize trucking, reduce environmental impact, and provide real sustainable cost reductions across the value chain.
我们三年前收购的PropX部门，是领先的末端支撑和输送解决方案提供商，自成立以来，已经交付了近4000亿磅的砂子。作为湿砂处理技术的首席供应商，我们很高兴分享几个新的进展。PropX最近推出了新型的[prop stack]（湿砂堆送输系统），优化了高产量压裂地点湿砂堆的使用。新的[prop hopper]和目前正在测试中的激光砂计量技术，为客户提供了更高的准确度和简化的现场操作。我们还在测试末端送砂的浆管系统，该系统可以减少卡车运输、降低环境影响，并为整个价值链提供可持续的成本降低。
Earlier this summer, Liberty Power Innovations, LPI, fuel gas operations commenced in the DJ Basin with first CNG sales in July. LPI's expanded compression and delivery operations in Colorado are off to a strong start, helping bring our frac fleet CNG fueling services to critical mass. We are now supporting most of our gas burning fleets in both the Permian and DJ Basin.
今年夏季，Liberty Power Innovations（LPI）在DJ盆地开始了燃气操作，并于7月开始了首次压缩天然气（CNG）销售。LPI在科罗拉多州的压缩和输送业务启动良好，帮助我们的压裂车队实现了CNG燃料服务的关键规模。目前，我们正在支持我们大部分的天然气燃烧车队，包括在Permian盆地和DJ盆地。
Alongside CNG, we are also treating field gas in the Haynesville, Permian and other basins for certain customers. LPI handled more gas volumes and delivered more CNG in the third quarter than in its operating history, with much more runway to expand.
除了压缩天然气（CNG），我们还为某些客户处理海恩斯维尔、二叠纪和其他盆地的油田气。LPI 在第三季度处理了更多的天然气量，并交付了更多的压缩天然气，创下其运营历史记录，并且有更多的扩展空间。
Today, the rising demand for power in commercial and industrial applications offers compelling opportunities for LPI. We are excited to leverage the expertise that we have built constructing and managing power plants for frac fleets to additional opportunities both inside and outside the oilfield. An energy-rich future creates opportunity as much of the ensuing demand will be meaningfully powered by natural gas, which is an area we believe we have significant advantages.
如今，对商业和工业应用中电力的需求上升，为LPI提供了引人注目的机会。我们很高兴能够利用我们在建设和管理发电厂方面的专业知识，为压裂车队提供支持，同时也为油田外部的机会提供动力。能源丰富的未来创造了机会，因为随之而来的需求将大部分由天然气提供动力，这是我们认为具有显著优势的领域。
The other opportunity in growing long-term supply of firm power is nuclear, which has been much in the news these days. Our ownership stake and partnership with small modular reactor company, Oklo, has been truly exciting.
另一个长期稳定电力供应的机会是核能，近年来它已经成为新闻热点。我们与小型模块化反应堆公司Oklo的合作和投资，带来了非常令人兴奋的进展。
Oil markets reflect significant uncertainty across the global economy, OPEC+ production plans, Chinese economic growth and Middle East geopolitical dynamics. Global demand for oil will grow by approximately 1 million barrels of oil per day this year and it's expected to exceed that rate next year. While global oil production may be in surplus in 2025, oil prices are expected to remain relatively range-bound and supportive of North American activity.
石油市场反映了全球经济的不确定性、OPEC+生产计划、中国经济增长和中东地缘政治动态。今年全球石油需求将增长约每天 100 万桶，预计明年将超过这一增长率。尽管 2025 年全球石油产量可能出现过剩，但预计油价将保持相对区间波动，并支持北美的活动。
Natural gas prices rose in recent weeks as storage congestion concerns ease due to producer curtailments and strong domestic power generation demand. However, higher prices may incentivize reversal of curtailments and, therefore, prove to be transitory. The commissioning of LNG export facilities in the U.S. and Canada is expected to stimulate gas activity in 2025 and support higher sustained natural gas demand.
近期天然气价格上涨，主要是由于生产商减产和强劲的国内电力需求缓解了储存拥堵问题。然而，较高的价格可能会刺激生产商逆转减产，因此可能只是暂时性的。美国和加拿大液化天然气（LNG）出口设施的投产预计将刺激2025年天然气活动，并支持更高的天然气需求。
Frac markets are navigating the slowing of E&P operators' 2024 development programs in response to the strong first half 2024 production efficiency gains from factors including producer consolidation, longer lateral wells and concentration of activity in high-graded acreage. Elevated uncertainty in energy markets has further left operators reluctant to accelerate completions activity in advance of the New Year. We now expect a low-double-digit percentage reduction in Q4 activity, a bit more than the typical Q4 softening.
压裂市场正在应对2024年E&P（勘探与生产）运营商开发计划放缓的问题，原因包括生产商整合、较长的水平井和活动集中在优质区块。能源市场的不确定性进一步使得运营商在新的一年之前不愿加速完工活动。我们预计第四季度活动将减少低双位数百分比，略高于通常的第四季度放缓。
Completions activity likely increases in early 2025 to support flattish E&P oil and gas production targets. Since late 2023, U.S. crude oil production has been relatively flat and would likely decline if current completion activities levels persist. Eventually, activity levels will likely increase to support growing global demand for oil and natural gas.
完井活动可能在 2025 年初增加，以支持持平的 E&P 石油和天然气生产目标。自 2023 年底以来，美国原油产量相对持平，如果当前完井活动水平持续下去，可能会下降。最终，活动水平可能会增加，以支持全球对石油和天然气日益增长的需求。
Frac industry dynamics are poised to improve in 2025 from today's levels. E&Ps brought wells to production faster this year, in part due to completion efficiencies and increased frac intensity with higher pump rates. Efficiencies were aided by a mix shift towards larger producers benefiting from consolidation and partnership with top-tier frac service providers.
压裂行业动态有望在 2025 年从当前水平改善。今年，E&P 公司更快地将油井投入生产，部分原因是完井效率提高和更高泵速下的压裂强度增加。效率的提高得益于向更大生产商的转变，这些生产商从整合中受益，并与顶级压裂服务提供商合作。
Industry-wide frac efficiency is at its highest levels, but we expect the rate of improvement will slow going forward. Higher intensity fracs require more horsepower. Softer activity has been a catalyst for equipment attrition, cannibalization and idling of fleets. Together, these imply that the supply and demand balance of frac fleets is tighter than headline frac fleet counts suggest.
整个行业的压裂效率处于最高水平，但我们预计未来改善的速度将会放缓。更高强度的压裂需要更多的马力。较低的活动水平已成为设备损耗、拆解和车队闲置的催化剂。综合来看，这些意味着压裂车队的供需平衡比表面上的压裂车队数量更为紧张。
Large well-capitalized E&Ps are enjoying attractive economics across a wide range of oil prices. To maintain efficiency gains and further support the increasing complexity of E&P needs, investment is necessary in leading-edge service technologies. Soft year-end frac activity levels are pressuring prices in the near term to levels that are inconsistent with the anticipated market demand and supply of horsepower in 2025.
大型资本充足的 E&P 公司在广泛的油价范围内享有有吸引力的经济效益。为了保持效率提升并进一步支持 E&P 需求的日益复杂性，必须在尖端服务技术上进行投资。年末压裂活动水平疲软，短期内对价格施加压力，使其与 2025 年预期的市场需求和马力供应不一致。
It is important that service prices support investment, especially given aging equipment, industry underinvestment in next-generation technologies and growing fleet sizes. Few service providers are positioned to manage the growing complexion -- complexities of completion demands with quality service and next-generation technologies. We are significantly advantaged with our deep customer relationships, leading-edge digiTechnologies offering and the integrated services that enable strong efficiencies for our customers and returns for our shareholders.
服务价格需要得到支持，尤其是在设备老化、行业在下一代技术上的投资不足和车队规模不断增长的背景下，服务提供商需要应对越来越复杂的完工需求。我们凭借深厚的客户关系、领先的数字技术产品和整合服务，能够为客户创造强大的效率，为股东带来回报。
We remain disciplined in investing in asset deployment as we seek to drive superior long-term financial results. Over the last two years, we have maintained a roughly flat deployed fleet count. However, amidst near-term reductions in customer activity and market pressures, we are planning to temporarily and modestly reduce our deployed fleet count, while continuing to support our long-term partners.
我们在资产部署方面保持纪律性，力求推动卓越的长期财务业绩。在过去两年里，我们保持了大致平稳的车队部署数量。然而，在客户活动和市场压力的短期减少下，我们计划暂时和适度减少部署车队数量，同时继续支持我们的长期合作伙伴。
Looking ahead, we expect to deliver healthy free cash flow generation in 2025. Our investment cadence within frac slows following an accelerated technology transition push in the last few years. Our strategic investment is expected to shift in support of our growing opportunities for power generation services. We are well-positioned to deliver on our dual priorities of strategic investment and return of capital to shareholders, creating value over the long term.
展望未来，我们预计2025年将产生健康的自由现金流。随着过去几年技术转型的加速推进，我们的压裂投资节奏将放缓。战略投资预计将转向支持我们在电力服务领域的增长机会。我们在战略投资和资本回报股东的双重优先事项上处于有利位置，能够在长期创造价值。
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Michael Stock, our CFO, to discuss our financial results and outlook.
接下来，我想把电话交给我们的首席财务官迈克尔·斯托克，来讨论我们的财务业绩和前景。
Michael Stock
Good morning, everyone. 大家早上好。
Over the past two years, our results demonstrate the hard work and dedication of the Liberty team. We've delivered superior returns during a time when industry activity levels and market conditions have softened from peak levels. We've also strategically used those two years to focus on building our competitive advantages.
在过去的两年中，我们的业绩展示了 Liberty 团队的辛勤工作和奉献精神。在行业活动水平和市场条件从高峰水平回落的时期，我们实现了卓越的回报。我们还战略性地利用这两年时间专注于建立我们的竞争优势。
We embarked on the initiative to transition our fleet to next-generation digiTechnologies that are in high demand. We are pleased to share that we are on track to start the year with approximately 90% of fleets, primarily powered by natural gas with dual fuel and digiFleets. We also launched and have now reached critical mass in LPI infrastructure to power our fleets. As we look ahead, we are well-positioned to drive continued differentiation and solid performance through cycles.
我们启动了将车队过渡到下一代数字技术（digiTechnologies）的计划，这些技术需求很高。我们很高兴地分享，我们的车队将于明年初开始，约90%的车队将主要由天然气驱动，采用双燃料和数字车队。我们还启动并在LPI基础设施方面达到了临界规模，为我们的车队提供动力。展望未来，我们处于有利位置，能够在各个周期中推动差异化和稳定的业绩。
In the third quarter of 2024, revenue was $1.1 billion compared to $1.2 billion in the prior quarter, representing a 2% sequential decline on pricing headwinds.
2024年第三季度，收入为11亿美元，较上一季度的12亿美元下降了2%，主要受到定价压力的影响。
Third quarter net income after-tax was $74 million compared to $108 million in the prior quarter. Adjusted net income after-tax was $76 million compared to $103 million in the prior quarter and excludes a pre-tax net unrealized loss of $3 million for mark-to-market loss adjustments.
第三季度净收入为7400万美元，较上一季度的1.08亿美元下降。调整后的净收入为7600万美元，较上一季度的1.03亿美元下降，不包括税前净未实现损失300万美元的市场价值调整。
Fully diluted net income per share was $0.44 compared to $0.64 in the prior quarter, and adjusted net income per diluted share was $0.45 compared to $0.61 in the prior quarter.
每股摊薄净收入为0.44美元，较上一季度的0.64美元下降，调整后的每股摊薄净收入为0.45美元，较上一季度的0.61美元下降。
Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $248 million compared to $273 million in the prior quarter.
第三季度调整后的EBITDA为2.48亿美元，较上一季度的2.73亿美元下降。
General and administrative expenses totaled $59 million in the third quarter, largely in line with $58 million in the second quarter, and included non-cash stock-based compensation of $5 million.
第三季度的总行政和管理费用为5900万美元，基本与第二季度的5800万美元持平，其中包括500万美元的非现金股票奖励。
Other expense items totaled $11 million for the quarter, inclusive of the aforementioned $3 million net unrealized loss on investments. Net interest expense of $9 million was relatively in line with $8 million in the prior quarter.
其他费用项目为1100万美元，其中包括前述的300万美元的投资未实现损失。净利息支出为900万美元，基本与上一季度的800万美元相当。
Third quarter tax expense was $22 million, approximately 23% of pre-tax income. We continue to expect the tax expense rate in 2024 to be approximately 23% to 24% of pre-tax income. Cash taxes were $16 million in the quarter, and we now expect 2024 cash taxes to be approximately 50% of our effective book tax rate for the year.
第三季度税费为2200万美元，占税前收入的约23%。我们仍然预计2024年的税费率将维持在税前收入的23%至24%左右。现金税费为1600万美元，我们现在预计2024年的现金税费将是年度有效税率的约50%。
We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $23 million and net debt of $100 million. Net debt declined by $17 million from the end of the second quarter. Third quarter uses of cash included capital expenditures, $39 million in share buybacks and $11 million of quarterly cash dividends. Total liquidity at the end of the quarter, including availability under the credit facility, was $352 million.
我们以 2300 万美元的现金余额和 1 亿美元的净债务结束了本季度。净债务比第二季度末减少了 1700 万美元。第三季度的现金使用包括资本支出、3900 万美元的股票回购和 1100 万美元的季度现金股息。季度末的总流动性，包括信贷额度下的可用性，为 3.52 亿美元。
Net capital expenditures were $163 million in the third quarter, which included investments in digiFleets, dual fuel fleet upgrades, LATC and Permian facility construction, capitalised maintenance spending and other projects. We had approximately $4 million of proceeds from asset sales in the quarter. In the fourth quarter, we expect capital expenditures to be approximately $200 million based on expected timing deliveries on digiTechnologies, completion of dual fuel technology upgrades, demand for wet sand handling equipment.
第三季度净资本支出为 1.63 亿美元，其中包括对 digiFleets、双燃料车队升级、LATC 和二叠纪设施建设、资本化维护支出和其他项目的投资。我们在本季度通过资产出售获得了大约 400 万美元的收益。第四季度，我们预计资本支出约为 2 亿美元，基于 digiTechnologies 的预期交付时间、双燃料技术升级的完成、湿砂处理设备的需求。
Our ability to generate strong cash flows through cycles enables our commitment to capital returns. In the third quarter, we repurchased $39 million of shares, or over 1% of the shares outstanding, and distributed $11 million in cash dividends. We continue to deliver on our return of capital program while reinvesting in high returns opportunities that increase our long-term cash flow generation.
我们通过周期产生强劲现金流的能力使我们能够承诺资本回报。在第三季度，我们回购了 3900 万美元的股票，占流通股的 1%以上，并分发了 1100 万美元的现金股息。我们继续履行资本回报计划，同时再投资于提高长期现金流产生的高回报机会。
Looking ahead, we are now anticipating fourth quarter seasonality to be more pronounced than typical, as early year E&P production outperformance, coupled with emerging macroeconomic uncertainties, keep E&Ps hesitant to raise activity ahead of the New Year. While unusually softer year-end activity levels are serving as a backdrop in pricing conversations, these pressures are inconsistent with the anticipated industry demand in 2025. We believe fleet activity is now at or below levels required to sustain flattish oil and gas production and are poised to inflect higher in 2025. Horizontal rig counts have also stabilized, a signal of bottoming activity in the market. After two years of largely maintaining a flat fleet count, we are now planning to temporarily reduce our deployed fleets by approximately 5%. We will reactivate those fleets to support our customers' long-term development needs in a disciplined fashion.
展望未来，我们预计第四季度的季节性会比通常更为明显，因为年初E&P（勘探与生产）生产的超预期表现，加上宏观经济的不确定性，令E&P公司在新年前不愿加速活动。虽然年末活动水平较软，成为定价谈判的背景，但这些压力与2025年预计的行业需求不一致。我们认为，目前的车队活动水平已接近或低于维持平稳石油和天然气生产所需的水平，预计2025年将出现反弹。水平钻井数量也已稳定，这是市场活动见底的信号。在过去两年中，我们大致保持了平稳的车队数量，但现在计划暂时减少约5%的部署车队。我们将以纪律性的方式重新启用这些车队，以支持客户的长期发展需求。
As we invested early in the cycle to build our competitive advantage transitioning our fleet to next-generation digiTechnologies, we now expect our capital spending program for our completion services to decline in 2025. As such, we expect free cash flow, as defined as EBITDA less CapEx, to the completions business to increase year-over-year. We have significant flexibility to maintain strong free cash flow generation and adjust our capital spending targets to fund potential new power opportunities while continuing to support our robust return of capital program. We expect our investments to shift towards growing opportunities for power generation services in the years ahead.
由于我们在周期初期就投资于将车队过渡到下一代数字技术，我们现在预计2025年在完工服务方面的资本支出将有所下降。因此，我们预计完工业务的自由现金流（即EBITDA减去资本支出）将实现同比增长。我们拥有巨大的灵活性，可以维持强劲的自由现金流生成能力，并调整资本支出目标，以资助潜在的新电力机会，同时继续支持我们稳健的资本回报计划。我们预计，未来几年的投资将转向支持电力服务增长的机会。
We also increased our quarterly cash dividend by 14% to reflect the confidence we have in our ability to invest and expand our long-term earnings, drive free cash flow generation and deliver a leading return of capital strategy. We combine a cash dividend with opportunistic share repurchases to generate significant value for our shareholders.
我们还将季度现金股息提高了 14%，以反映我们对投资和扩大长期收益、推动自由现金流生成以及实现领先资本回报战略的信心。我们将现金股息与机会性股票回购相结合，为股东创造显著价值。
I will now turn the call back to Chris for a few remarks.
现在我将把电话交还给克里斯，请他发表一些评论。
Chris Wright
Thanks, Michael. 谢谢，迈克尔。
Slowing activity is pressuring pricing levels, inconsistent with expected future demand. Let me try to put this in perspective. Our per fleet frac profitability remains above the cyclical high in 2018. This cycle is markedly different than previous cycles, reflecting a far healthier frac market, with perhaps wider differential in profitabilities across the quality of frac providers. Already, we are seeing smaller frac companies fall into insolvency, and most of our competitors' investments in frac equipment are below their attrition levels. Available frac capacity is shrinking. This will lead to tightening in the frac market even without increasing frac demand.
活动放缓正在对定价水平产生压力，这与预期的未来需求不一致。让我尝试从这个角度来说明。我们的每车队压裂盈利能力仍然高于2018年的周期高点。本周期与以往不同，反映了更加健康的压裂市场，可能存在更广泛的盈利差异，取决于压裂服务提供商的质量。我们已经看到一些较小的压裂公司陷入破产，大多数竞争对手对压裂设备的投资未能达到设备淘汰水平。可用的压裂产能正在缩小。这将导致即便没有增加压裂需求，压裂市场也会趋紧。
Our competitive advantage is bigger than it has ever been. CapEx in our core business will trend downward next year and in the foreseeable future, boosting our free cash flow. Liberty Power Innovations is in its infancy, and we have the technology, business infrastructure, and cash flow to develop a high return, sizable diversification to the frac business. However, we love the frac business and have never been more excited about our competitive position and future prospects in frac.
我们的竞争优势比以往更强。我们核心业务的资本支出明年及可预见的未来将趋于下降，从而推动我们的自由现金流增长。Liberty Power Innovations（LPI）尚处于起步阶段，但我们拥有技术、商业基础设施和现金流，能够为压裂业务带来高回报的大规模多元化。然而，我们仍然热爱压裂业务，并且比以往任何时候都更加看好我们在压裂领域的竞争地位和未来前景。
I will now turn it back to the operator for Q&A, after which I will have some closing comments at the end of the call.
现在我将把时间交还给主持人进行问答，之后我将在通话结束时做一些总结评论。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
I'll now open the line up for your questions. [Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Scott Gruber with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
现在我将开放提问环节。[操作员说明] 第一个问题来自花旗集团的 Scott Gruber。请开始提问。
Scott Gruber
Yes, good morning. 是的，早上好。
Michael Stock
Good morning, Scott. 早上好，斯科特。
Chris Wright
Good morning, Scott. 早上好，斯科特。
Scott Gruber
I wanted to start on your comments around investment next year, so EBITDA less CapEx for completions, that will rise with lower completions CapEx next year. What does it mean for how many e-frac fleet additions you could target for next year? And it sounds like LPI investment could go higher next year. So, putting those two pieces together, what are your early thoughts on '25 CapEx? And a wide range is fine. I know we're early, but just curious what that range could be.
我想从你们关于明年投资的评论开始讨论。所以，压裂业务的EBITDA减去资本支出（CapEx），随着明年压裂资本支出的下降，会增加。那这意味着你们明年可能增加多少台电动压裂车队（e-frac）？听起来LPI的投资可能明年会增加。将这两部分结合在一起，你们对2025年资本支出的初步想法是什么？一个宽泛的范围就可以，我知道我们还在初期阶段，但只是好奇这个范围大概是多少。
Michael Stock
Yeah, thanks, Scott. Yeah, I mean, that level of CapEx that we were discussing there probably has us bring four or five digiFleets into the market about just a bit over -- about 10% kind of replacement. So, we've probably in sort of 14% to 15% or closing in on 40% at the end of next year with digiTechnologies just depending on how the fleet configuration goes between [indiscernible] frac fleets and others. So, I think that's about where we are on that.
谢谢，Scott。嗯，我们讨论的那部分资本支出可能意味着我们将增加四到五台数字化车队（digiFleets），这大概相当于10%左右的替换比例。因此，到明年年底，我们可能会接近14%到15%，或者说接近40%，取决于车队配置在数字化压裂车队和其他类型之间的分配。所以，差不多就是这个水平。
And then, the LPI investments, obviously, kind of early days in looking at the power opportunities, got a lot of discussions going on there that are quite interesting, and in reasonable advanced status, but that will come clear and probably be a lot clearer by our January call of what those numbers would look like. But we like to kind of think about it for investor to say, we're generating far more cash -- we're going to be generating more cash next year out of our completions business, which is where we're doing at the moment.
然后，关于LPI的投资，显然，电力机会方面还处于初期阶段，正在进行许多非常有趣的讨论，进展也在合理的状态中，但这些内容可能会在我们1月的电话会议中更加明确。所以我们倾向于这样考虑，对于投资者来说，我们明年在完工业务中产生的现金会更多，这是目前我们正在做的事情。
That also includes the -- that number that I gave for the CapEx also includes the base molecule management, kind of any expansion that we need for delivering natural gas to support those frac fleets as well. So that's included in what I consider the completions business side of that, and eventually any sort of outside of frac power generation will be something we talk about in January.
另外，我提到的资本支出数字也包括了基础分子管理和任何我们需要扩展的天然气供应设施，以支持这些压裂车队。所以，这些都包含在我认为的完工业务部分内。最终，任何超出压裂业务的电力生成部分，我们会在1月时再讨论。
Scott Gruber
Got it. I appreciate that color. And then just a follow-up on the near-term dynamics. I guess, one, how should we think about the decrementals in 4Q on that low-teens revenue decline? And two, can you offer any early thoughts on the 1Q recovery from a revenue and incremental standpoint? A couple of moving pieces there in terms of positive seasonal trend, but I would assume those two fleets you're laying down, probably stay on the sidelines for a bit, and then there could be some additional pricing headwinds. Just trying to level set how we should think about where Liberty starts 2025 from a revenue and EBITDA standpoint?
明白了，非常感谢这些细节。接下来是关于短期动态的一个后续问题。首先，我们该如何看待第四季度低个位数收入下降的影响？第二，您是否能提供一些关于第一季度收入和增量恢复的初步看法？考虑到季节性趋势的正面影响，但我假设你们停用的那两台车队可能会暂时停在一边，而且可能会有一些额外的定价压力。只是想了解我们应该如何看待Liberty在2025年初的收入和EBITDA表现？
Michael Stock
Yeah. So, Scott, let me take that one. I think the revenue decline, it will be similar compared to last year in the fourth quarter. I think decrementals will be a little higher. That's with kind of as we sort of looked at sort of kind of the slow decreasing of pricing and kind of sort of the dynamics at the end of this year versus the dynamics at the end of last year. So, if you look at revenue and the decrementals there, I think we'll have activity recovery coming into Q1. It won't be back to Q3 levels. It'll be between Q4 and Q3 and the standard incrementals, I would say, from there. We'll have to -- we'll guess as we get closer and closer. We're still in the early part of RFP season, et cetera, but we have a reasonable look at where things are at the moment.
好的，Scott，我来回答这个问题。我认为，收入下降与去年第四季度类似，减量效应可能会稍微高一些。这是因为我们看到价格略有下降以及年底的动态与去年年底的情况有所不同。所以，如果看收入和减量效应的话，我认为第一季度会有活动的恢复。虽然不会回到第三季度的水平，但预计会在第四季度和第三季度之间，增量也会有所恢复。从目前来看，随着我们接近第一季度，我们会有更清晰的预期。现在我们还处于RFP季节的初期，但从目前的情况来看，我们有一个合理的判断。
Scott Gruber
Great color, Michael. Appreciate it. Thank you.
很棒的颜色，迈克尔。感谢你。谢谢。
Michael Stock
Thanks, Scott. 谢谢，斯科特。
Operator 操作员
Next question comes from Ati Modak with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自高盛的 Ati Modak。请继续。
Ati Modak
Hi, good morning, team. Can you talk about the pricing pressure dynamic in the market? Do you think industry pricing discipline is breaking down? Is there a profitability level or return level on your feet that we should think of in trying to understand where pricing can go?
早上好，团队。能否谈谈市场中的定价压力动态？你们是否认为行业定价的纪律性正在崩溃？在理解定价可能走向的过程中，是否有一个利润水平或回报水平是我们应该关注的？
Chris Wright
Yeah, Ati, I wouldn't -- I think discipline breaking down is definitely too strong of a statement, but you get to the year-end and there's a number of fleets going down, people's programs are just running out. They may not have gone down yet, but they know they're going to get down late in November, early December after this pad or the next pad. And we do see people trying to fill that gap and keep that fleet working. So, for extra pickup work, pricing is very rough, and unusually rough even. Normally, that's not great pricing, but that's particularly rough. And we're just not going to play that game. We're just not going to run a fleet at pricing that doesn't justify running that fleet.
Ati，我不认为“纪律崩溃”是一个准确的说法，但到了年末，很多车队的数量在减少，很多人的项目即将结束，虽然他们的车队可能还没停运，但他们知道在11月底或12月初的一段时间内，随着某些项目的结束，车队就会停运。我们确实看到有些公司试图填补这一空缺，保持车队的运作。因此，对于额外的临时工作，定价确实非常低，而且异常低。通常情况下，这种定价并不好，但现在特别糟糕。而我们不会参与这样的游戏。我们绝不会以无法证明其合理性的定价运营车队。
And so, look, we were -- two years ago, the market condition peaked and it's been sort of a slow gradual decline. We've used technology in improving our efficiency and services to try to swim against that tide offsetting it. I think we obviously continue to do that. But rig count is plateaued. I think operators probably feel we're at or near a pricing bottom. And so, yeah, look, we stay tight to our partners. We're going to keep our profitability up. And if we can't, we're going to take the actions we're taking right now, which is idle some capacity. We're fine doing that. But conditions aren't great today, but I don't -- this isn't a normal downturn where it's about to drop. And it's -- this is just a first leg down. I look probably pricing wise at or near the bottom would be my guess.
所以，回顾过去两年，市场条件在两年前达到了巅峰，之后经历了一个缓慢而逐步的下降。我们通过技术提高效率和服务，努力逆势而行，抵消这些下行压力。我认为我们显然会继续这样做。但钻机数量已经停滞，我认为运营商可能觉得我们已经接近定价底部了。所以，我们会紧密与合作伙伴保持联系，保持我们的盈利水平。如果我们做不到这一点，我们就会采取目前正在采取的行动，即暂时停用一些产能。我们对此没有问题。虽然当前的市场状况并不理想，但我不认为这是一个典型的市场低迷期，也不是马上要大幅下降的那种情况。这只是第一阶段的下行，我猜测定价已经接近底部或已经处于底部了。
Ati Modak
Got it. That's very helpful. And then, you mentioned efficiency. You also mentioned that it's at the highest levels, but there is room for some incremental changes, which will be slower from here. Maybe can you help us understand those changes that would take that efficiency even higher and what that means for the competitive advantage?
明白了，非常有帮助。然后，您提到过效率的问题。你还提到目前效率已经达到最高水平，但仍然有一些增量变化的空间，尽管这些变化将会比较缓慢。也许您能帮我们理解那些可能进一步提高效率的变化，以及这对竞争优势意味着什么？
Chris Wright
Yeah, look, we, and I would say our industry, but I would say led by Liberty, are just passionate innovators, right? We're always looking to do something different, to do something better and that won't stop. But think of the huge changes in just the last 12 to 18 months. We've had some consolidation of significant sized companies. What happens then? Maybe together they were running 12 rigs and now they're running nine, and all nine of those are running on the best acreage in the combined portfolio. That increases productivity per well or swims against a long-term degradation in average well productivity that's been going on for six, seven, eight years now.
是的，实际上，我们，以及我可以说是整个行业，但我认为是Liberty领先的，都是充满激情的创新者。我们总是在寻找不同的方式，做得更好，这种精神不会停止。看看过去12到18个月的巨大变化，我们经历了几家大型公司的整合。那会发生什么呢？也许他们原本是12台钻机，现在他们只用了9台，而且这9台钻机都在合并后的最佳区块上运作。这增加了每口井的生产力，抵消了过去六、七、八年间平均井生产力的长期下降。
People are going to -- when there's excess capacity and pricing feel soft, people go more to simul frac, which is really more than one fleet on operation. So, it gets counted as one fleet, but really that's 1.6 fleets or 1.7 fleets. So, these factors have allowed in the last couple of years and maybe especially in the last nine months, great increases in efficiency and productivity. This is great for our industry, great for the economics of the whole pie, but obviously, in the short term, it's pricing pressure on frac equipment, which is getting more done with the same amount of horsepower. The decline in fleet count is roughly half offset by growth in the average fleet count size. So, horsepower that's being run has not declined by as much as frac fleet count has declined.
当市场上存在过剩产能且定价感觉疲软时，行业会更多地转向模拟压裂（simul frac），也就是多台车队同时运作。所以，它被计算为一台车队，但实际上是1.6台或1.7台车队。这些因素在过去几年，尤其是过去9个月内，推动了效率和生产力的大幅提升。这对我们行业有利，对整个经济效益也有利，但显然短期内它给压裂设备带来了定价压力，因为同样的马力可以做更多的工作。车队数量的下降大约被平均车队规模的增长抵消了一半。因此，正在运作的马力并没有像车队数量那样下降得那么多。
But, yeah, I would say, what makes us feel better about the marketplace is the differential in the profitability, say, of Liberty versus smaller privates you don't even know that are out there and they're part of the marketplace, they are truly struggling. Some of those companies are drying up, shutting down operations, going into bankruptcy or just sort of folding their cards and selling their assets away to someone else or shutting them down. So, we see that generation, that shrinkage in capacity in the marketplace. That's what it takes to fix a market where supply and demand are a little bit out of whack.
但是，我想说的是，让我们对市场有信心的，是Liberty与一些不为人知的、较小的私人公司之间的盈利差异。这些小公司确实在苦苦挣扎。一些公司已经停止运营、破产，或者干脆收起牌照，将资产卖给其他公司或者直接关闭。所以，我们看到市场上容量的收缩。这就是修复供应与需求略微失衡的市场所需要的过程。
But -- and I'd probably address not as much on your technology thing. I don't know if Ron wants to add into that, but optimizing supply chain, AI for routing truck delivery, how do we maximize the life of an engine, how do we increase gas substitution, so we can bring a greater fuel cost savings to ourselves and to our customers, a lot of technical efforts going on. I think I'm talking too long. Ron, if you want to add anything or if we move on?
但是——我可能不会过多谈论你的技术问题。我不知道 Ron 是否想对此补充，但优化供应链、用于卡车配送路线的 AI、如何最大化发动机寿命、如何增加燃气替代，以便为我们自己和客户带来更大的燃料成本节省，很多技术工作正在进行。我想我说得太多了。Ron，你想补充什么还是我们继续？
Ron Gusek
I think you hit all the high points, Chris.
我认为你提到了所有要点，克里斯。
Chris Wright
Thanks, Ron. Thanks, Ati.
谢谢，Ron。谢谢，Ati。
Ati Modak
Thank you, guys. 谢谢你们。
Operator 操作员
Okay. Our next question comes from Stephen Gengaro with Stifel. Please go ahead.
好的。我们的下一个问题来自 Stifel 的 Stephen Gengaro。请继续。
Stephen Gengaro
Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Two for me. I'd start just back on the pricing question. When you talk about dedicated fleets with customers, do these prices roll at this time of year or they roll throughout the year? And just as an add-on to that, do you expect any material deterioration in pricing for that part of the business?
谢谢，大家早上好，我有两个问题。首先，关于定价的问题。当你们谈到与客户的专用车队时，这些价格是每年调整一次，还是全年都有调整？另外，作为附加问题，您是否预计这一部分业务的定价会出现显著的下降？
Chris Wright
Those are all different. Some of them is fixed for a year. Some of them, it has twice a year or even quarterly adjustments based on some factors. Those adjustments are big and there's usually caps on how much that can move up or down. So, there can be movements, but they're not huge. There is some rebidding going on now for a new contract starting in January. Not everybody does it on the calendar year, but a lot do.
这些情况各不相同。有些是固定的，持续一年；有些是每年两次，甚至是每季度根据一些因素进行调整。这些调整幅度较大，并且通常会有上下限的规定。所以，虽然会有价格波动，但并不会非常剧烈。目前确实有一些新合同的重新竞标，计划从1月开始。但并不是每家公司都在按日历年进行调整，很多公司是的。
So, there is -- and that's the negotiations and dialogue we're having right now with our customers. We have long-term partners. They appreciate the efficiency and the quality of us working together. Those relationships are going to continue. But are other bids coming in that lower that pressure that dialogue a little bit? Sure. But that's been going on for two years now.
所以，现在我们正与客户进行这些谈判和对话。我们有很多长期合作伙伴，他们很欣赏我们合作的效率和质量。这些关系会继续维持下去。但市场上确实有其他竞标者出现，某种程度上会增加价格压力，影响谈判的氛围。但这种情况已经持续了两年。
Stephen Gengaro
Great. Thanks. And the other one is, when you -- we hear all about energy demand for AI data centers, et cetera, and I know about the investment in partnership with Oklo and then you sort of think about the LPI business, is the LPI sort of end market similar to sort of where SMRs will be playing or is there any way that you can help us sort of start thinking about what kind of end market you'd be after on the LPI side?
明白了，谢谢。另一个问题是，关于我们听到的AI数据中心等领域的能源需求，我知道你们与Oklo的投资合作，也涉及到LPI业务。那么，LPI的终端市场是否与小型模块化反应堆（SMRs）的市场类似？或者你能帮我们思考一下LPI市场的最终目标是什么吗？
Chris Wright
You bet. Both of them are aimed at what I would call 10-plus years and, in some states, more than that of just sort of bad electricity policy that has driven up the price of electricity and driven down the stability of the grid. That is -- if look at California's electricity prices, they doubled with actually no increase in demand at all. High prices just pushed the industry out of California, but they've still driven up their prices.
当然。两者的目标市场都面向的是，我认为可以称之为10年或更长时间的能源需求问题，一些州的电力政策导致了电价上涨，且电网的稳定性下降。举个例子，看看加州的电力价格，它们翻了一番，但需求并没有增加。高电价实际上把很多行业推出了加州，但电价依然上涨。
Now, nationwide, we're about to see the first meaningful growth in demand in electricity in 25 years. So, yeah, they're both targeted at that, but think of Oklo, they're going to be fixed on location. They're going to be built somewhere. They could be on the grid. They could be behind the grid, but they're going to be fixed. So, data center is a huge target market for that, other industrial facilities.
全国范围来看，我们即将迎来25年来第一次真正意义上的电力需求增长。所以，Oklo和LPI的目标市场都在这方面，但Oklo更多是固定位置的设施。它们将在某个地方建设，可能会接入电网，也可能会在电网之外，但它们是固定的。所以，数据中心是一个巨大的目标市场，其他工业设施也是如此。
LPI and our natural gas generating assets, they're on wheels. They could be supplying a data center that's 18 months behind or 24 months until it gets a grid connection, but they're not likely to be parked somewhere for 20 years or the nuclear power plant is going to be there forever. So, it could be in some of those same markets, but they also have the flexibility to move where there's power dislocations. So, we're figuring that out.
而LPI和我们的天然气发电资产则是流动的。它们可以为数据中心提供电力，直到它们接入电网为止，可能需要18个月或24个月，但它们不太可能停留在某个地方20年，像核电站那样固定在那里。所以，它们可能进入一些相同的市场，但也有灵活性，可以在电力供应失衡的地方移动。我们正在逐步解决这些问题。
The interest in them is just tremendous. What we've got to figure out is, we only got a limited amount of assets and we're only going to build a limited amount of capacity, where's the best and highest use of those fleets? So, there's some overlap, but there's very different capabilities between the two. So, I think the overlap will probably be more the exception than the rule, but excited about the opportunities for both.
对这些技术的兴趣非常大。我们需要搞清楚的是，我们的资产有限，能够建设的产能也有限，如何找到这些车队的最佳使用场所。虽然这两者有一些重叠，但它们的能力有很大的不同。所以，我认为它们的重叠可能更多是例外而非常态，但我们对这两种机会都感到非常兴奋。
Stephen Gengaro
Great. Thank you for the color.
很好。谢谢你的颜色。
Chris Wright
And I'm sure Fervo's electric generating capacity from next-generation geothermal, they're plugging into that same market. Those are more long-term contracts to utilities. But it may be -- but that's another business that Liberty is a partner in that I think has got pretty bright prospects addressing the same problem, but in a slightly different way.
我相信Fervo通过下一代地热发电能力，正在进入同一个市场。那些更多是与公用事业签订的长期合同。但这也是Liberty所合作的另一个业务，我认为它有非常光明的前景，以稍微不同的方式解决同样的问题。
Stephen Gengaro
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Next question comes from Saurabh Pant with BoA. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自美国银行的 Saurabh Pant。请继续。
Saurabh Pant
Hi, good morning. 嗨，早上好。
Michael Stock
Good morning. 早上好。
Chris Wright
Good morning. 早上好。
Saurabh Pant
Chris, maybe I want to dig in a little bit on your comment on, I think you said the pricing pressure is inconsistent with anticipated supply/demand balance next year, right? So, I'm just thinking forward from there and thinking if that's the case, that's your view, then how do we think you approach your contracting strategy for 2025? Basically saying, do you want shorter-term contracts with more reopeners just to get the upside potential in the back half of '25? Or do you look to sign up contracts with relatively fixed stable pricing, again relative is the word right, for most of 2025? How do you approach that?
Chris，我想稍微深入一下你之前提到的关于定价压力的问题，我记得你说过定价压力与预期的供需平衡不一致，对吧？我从这里继续思考，如果这是你的观点，那我们该如何看待你们在2025年的合同策略？基本上是说，你们是否希望签订更短期的合同，并且在合同中加入更多的调整条款，以便在2025年下半年获得上涨的潜力？还是你们更倾向于签订相对固定稳定的定价合同，指的是2025年大部分时间的稳定价格？你们是怎么考虑这个问题的？
Chris Wright
So, great question. So, if we're going to build a new fleet for someone, that's going to have locked-in pricing that guarantees it makes sense to deploy the capital and build this fleet. It may have reopeners that can move that price up, but it will certainly be structured in a way that that price will not degrade to make that investment a bad investment for us. But there's a lot of interest with producers right now.
这个问题问得很好。如果我们要为客户建立一个新的车队，这个车队的定价会是锁定的，确保部署资金和建造这个车队是合理的。这些定价可能会有调整条款，在一定程度上提高价格，但它一定会以一种结构化的方式设定，确保价格不会降低到使我们的投资变得不划算的水平。但是现在确实有很多生产商表示感兴趣。
Of course, for new fleets, we're not -- they're not going out at poor pricing, none of them, zero of them. But the legacy equipment, there is some tough pricing going on in that world. We do have some assets like that. So, it's possible with partners there, we would make price adjustments for a dedicated fleet that would just be structured such that they move up as the market firms, in a slow and gradual partnership way that we've been doing since we started the company.
对于新的车队，我们肯定不会以低价签约，绝对不会。但对于旧的设备市场，定价确实很困难。我们有一些这样的资产。因此，在与合作伙伴的情况下，我们可能会为专用车队做价格调整，结构上让价格随着市场的回升而逐步上升，这种调整方式是我们自公司成立以来一直在做的。
So, yeah, it depends on asset type, depends on customer, depends on duration. So, it is a wide range of things going on. And that's part of the Liberty thing. Different customers have different needs and different priorities. And what we do is just engage with them candidly and find out the right way to structure it that we're comfortable with that works for them. And if we can't, again, we'll find the idle capacity, but there aren't many players out there that want to move away from their partnership with Liberty. That's a vanishingly small list.
所以，是否签订长期合同，确实取决于资产类型、客户和合同期限。这其中的变量很大。这就是Liberty的特点，不同的客户有不同的需求和优先级。我们所做的就是坦诚地与他们沟通，找到一种我们都能接受且对他们有效的结构。如果我们做不到这一点，我们就会利用闲置的产能，但目前没有多少公司愿意放弃与Liberty的合作关系，这个名单几乎是不存在的。
Saurabh Pant
Right. No, that makes a lot of sense. Chris, thanks for that. And Mike, maybe one for you. In the press release, you mentioned healthy free cash flow for 2025. If you can help us think through the pieces as we think about 2025 from a free cash flow perspective, what things should we be mindful of as we try to build that up?
明白了，这很有道理。Chris，谢谢你。Mike，可能有一个问题是关于你们的自由现金流。你们在新闻稿中提到2025年将有健康的自由现金流。如果你能帮我们分析一下，考虑到2025年自由现金流的不同因素，我们在建立自由现金流时应该注意哪些要素？
Michael Stock
Yeah. So, I mean, as we've talked about, we're going to be managing CapEx down at our completions business. We'll look at replacing four to maybe five digiFleets kind of the 10% attrition cycle, the kind of natural cycle maintenance capital in that business. A lot of our -- sort of all of our investments in dual fuel, that will be completed in the fourth quarter, and a number of other, so new blended technologies, et cetera, some of those investment we made with PropX and the wet pile handling to support clients there.
是的，正如我们之前所谈到的，我们将会减少完工业务的资本支出。我们计划替换大约四到五台数字车队（digiFleets），大约是10%的自然淘汰周期，这是我们业务中正常的维护资本支出。我们的双燃料技术投资将在第四季度完成，此外，还有一些新型混合技术的投资，例如我们在PropX和湿堆处理技术上的投资，支持客户的需求。
So, we'll see those -- that CapEx comes down, which obviously is the biggest part of it as it offsets kind of a decline in EBITDA. I think what we will see is you're going to see kind of a slight raise in cash taxes. We're running about 50% of our tax rate. We will run I think about 100% of our book tax rate next year by the looks of things. Interest will remain relatively flat. Given the fact we're going to have a quietest Q4, you're going to see working capital fluctuate during the year, but I would expect that over the whole year, next year, working capital will be relatively flat on that side of the business. Obviously, the largest portion of our free cash flow at the moment and very much going forward, we can easily support the same strong return of capital to shareholders that we're doing now, and would expect that to continue.
因此，我们会看到资本支出下降，这显然是因为它抵消了 EBITDA 的某种下降。我认为我们会看到现金税收略有增加。我们的税率大约是 50%。明年我们将按账面税率的 100%运行。利息将保持相对平稳。鉴于我们将有一个最安静的第四季度，你会看到营运资本在一年中波动，但我预计明年全年在该业务方面营运资本将相对平稳。显然，目前我们最大的自由现金流部分以及未来，我们可以轻松支持与现在相同的强劲资本回报给股东，并预计这种情况将继续。
Saurabh Pant
Okay, perfect. No, that's all very useful color, Mike. Thank you. I'll turn it back.
好的，完美。 不，这些都是非常有用的信息，迈克。谢谢你。我会交还的。
Michael Stock
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Next question comes from Marc Bianchi with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Marc Bianchi。请继续。
Marc Bianchi
Hi, thank you. Maybe Michael, just a follow-up on the capital spending for next year. It wasn't clear to me, do you expect the CapEx dollars to be higher or lower for the total company?
嗨，谢谢。也许迈克尔，关于明年的资本支出有个后续问题。我不太清楚，你预计公司的总资本支出会更高还是更低？
Michael Stock
Lower for the completions business. Obviously, the power generation opportunity is still to be clarified. That we'll talk about. I mean, I would expect that within the realm, I think it probably would be slightly low unless there's really exciting and very large power generation opportunity. But generally I'd say it will be down slightly, it will be down significantly in the completions business. But a good portion of that may, I would say, until we get made up in the outside of frac power generation business, that's still to be thought about and going and decided upon, and you'll see announcements around that as we go through the quarter into the January call.
完工业务的资本支出会减少。显然，电力生成机会还需要进一步澄清，我们会在接下来的时间里谈到这个问题。我预计在这个范围内，可能会稍微减少，除非有非常令人兴奋且规模巨大的电力生成机会。但总体而言，我会说它会略微下降，完工业务的资本支出会大幅减少。但是，部分资本支出可能会通过压裂之外的电力生成业务来弥补，我们仍在思考和决定这一点，相关的公告将在本季度结束时或1月的电话会议上发布。
Marc Bianchi
Yeah. Okay. That was going to be my next question. The other one that I had was just on the revenue progression here. So, the activity is down low-double-digits, but it sounds like your revenue is down also low-double-digits, but there's some pricing weakness. So, I would have thought that the revenue decline is more than the activity decline. So, maybe you could talk about that and how that progresses into 1Q? I know you said activities up in 1Q, but not quite to 3Q levels. There's pricing component we probably need to be considering too, right?
明白了。那是我接下来的问题。另一个问题是关于收入的进展。活动量下降了低双位数，但听起来你的收入下降也是低双位数，但存在一些定价疲软。所以，我原本以为收入下降应该大于活动下降。你能谈谈这个问题吗？以及它如何发展到第一季度？我知道你提到第一季度活动量会上升，但还没有达到第三季度的水平。我们可能还需要考虑定价的因素，对吧？
Michael Stock
Yeah, there's a lot of sort of mix issues that happen sort of when you look at sort of an activity decline versus the revenue decline. So, it depends on sort of where things are going on certain parts of the kind of mix of the business. So, it happens that those two will be pretty similar in Q4. As you'll see, there's a pricing element in there, sort of there's some offsets obviously, because as I've said, the decrementals will be slightly higher in Q4 this year with a similar revenue drop than it was Q4 last year. So, you can basically read through that there is a little bit of a pricing sort of element to that, that's kind of increasing those incrementals.
是的，当你考虑活动下降与收入下降时，确实会有很多不同的混合因素。因此，它取决于业务的不同部分的动态。所以，第四季度这两者会相对接近。正如你所看到的，里面有一个定价因素，显然会有一些抵消作用，因为正如我所说，第四季度的减量效应会比去年第四季度稍微高一些，尽管收入下降幅度相似。所以你可以理解，在这里有一些定价的因素，这会增加增量效应。
Yeah, and I'd say, as we say, I think what we're going to see is we're going to see things come up Q4 -- Q1 to come up sort of between Q4 and Q3. And I think you'll see, we'll kind of get some clarity around that as we get through pricing season, how that falls through to earnings. But I'd say kind of modeling it in that medium point.
是的，我认为，正如我们所说，第一季度的活动会介于第四季度和第三季度之间。我认为我们会在定价季节中获得一些明确的信号，这将有助于我们了解这些因素如何传导到盈利中。但我会说，在中等假设的情况下，我们可以这样建模。
We see total activity really for the whole industry, kind of pretty much equal lateral feet next year versus this year, right? And that's where Chris talks about this. The pricing pressure at the moment is kind of inconsistent with the future demand, right? I mean, when you look at this thing, kind of the amount of demand for this whole year, the whole of next year is going to be similar.
对于整个行业的活动量来看，我们预计明年的水平将与今年大致相当。正如Chris所提到的，目前的定价压力与未来需求之间不太一致。事实上，考虑到今年和明年整个行业的需求量将差不多。
So, if you think about the limited number of supply of frac fleets, the increased attrition really that's going on and the larger amount, the sort of more complex fracs, we have got a slightly tightening market. Hence, the reason that we see that improving -- probably improving on a pricing matrix as we go through the year. I think it's going to naturally happen.
所以，如果你考虑到有限的压裂车队供应、持续的设备老化和更复杂的压裂作业，我们的市场将会稍微收紧。因此，我们预计随着一年进展，定价矩阵可能会逐渐改善。我认为这种变化会自然发生。
It is, one, I think we've talked about this with a number of folks, there's a flavor of the end of 2021, 2022 in here. I think you may have remembered if you go to our September call, we had six fleets we weren't working. And we said we were bringing them out because the bid in the market was weaker than it should have been. And I think you can kind of look back at when we brought those fleets out in April, they came out at significant profitability increase, right, in a very short period of time. Because market sentiments caught up with the realities of the underlying supply and demand.
我认为这一点我们已经和很多人讨论过了，类似于2021年年底和2022年的情况。如果你回忆一下，在我们9月的电话会议上，我们曾说过，有六台车队没有投入使用，因为市场竞标价格低于应有的水平。而我们可以回顾一下，当我们在4月将这些车队重新投入市场时，它们的盈利能力大幅提升，在非常短的时间内实现了这一点，因为市场情绪赶上了基本的供需现实。
Now, it's not going to be that extreme next year, we don't think, but there is going to be a flavor of that in this. So, yeah, so it's going to be a little dynamic as we go through the year. But the great thing about that one is we manage it -- better free cash flow next year than we will this year on that side of it.
现在，我们不认为明年会那么极端，但其中会有一些这样的味道。所以，是的，随着我们度过这一年，情况会有些动态。但好的一点是，我们可以管理它——明年的自由现金流会比今年更好。
Marc Bianchi
Yeah, strategy makes sense. If I could just squeeze one more in, how indicative do you think your experience here into year-end is for the broader industry? And I'm wondering if there's Liberty-specific things. You've got your sand business. You've got some wireline. Are there things happening in those parts of the businesses that might cause you to be different than sort of the broader frac industry as we think about the implications for other companies into 4Q?
是的，这个策略非常合理。如果我能再问一个问题，你觉得你们年末的经验在多大程度上可以代表整个行业的情况？我在想是否有Liberty特有的因素。你们有砂石业务，也有一些测井服务。是不是这些业务部分的变化使得你们与其他压裂公司有所不同，尤其是我们考虑到其他公司在第四季度的影响时？
Chris Wright
I think the short answer is we don't know. It's hard to say. There's just a lot of moving pieces. But I think what we're seeing is reasonably indicative of the whole marketplace, but definitely, our business is dictated by our relationships with our customers and other people's businesses. So, yeah, I don't think it's quite far off from the overall macro, but I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.
简短的回答是我们不知道，很难说。市场上有很多变化的因素。但我认为我们所看到的情况是相当具有代表性的，能够反映整个市场的状况，但毫无疑问，我们的业务是由与客户的关系主导的，而其他公司则由不同的因素主导。所以，我认为我们和整体宏观环境的差距并不大，但我们还是得等接下来的几周看看具体情况。
Marc Bianchi
Yeah. All right, Chris. Thanks a lot.
好的。好的，克里斯。非常感谢。
Chris Wright
Thanks. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from Keith Mackey with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 RBC 资本市场的 Keith Mackey。请继续。
Keith Mackey
Hi, good morning. So, it looks like CapEx for this year ends up at around $650 million. Could you maybe just talk a little bit about what the frac portion of that would be and what portion of that would be maintenance CapEx?
早上好，看起来今年的资本支出大约在6.5亿美元左右。能否谈谈其中压裂业务的占比以及维护资本支出的部分？
Michael Stock
Yeah. So, I think this year probably maintenance CapEx -- so obviously maintenance CapEx is a big part -- frac is a big part of maintenance CapEx. But maintenance CapEx is probably below $200 million, say $175 million, plus or minus, on that side of the business. We've had a pretty significant investment in LPI, some in the wet sand handling side of the world. And then, we've had a significant amount of dual fuel upgrades, digiFrac and some other underlying technology on the blender and other side of upgrades that went on this year. So that's the bulk of it.
是的，我认为今年的维护资本支出——显然，维护资本支出是一个大头——压裂业务占了相当大一部分。维护资本支出大约在2亿美元以下，可能在1.75亿美元左右，±一些。我们在LPI方面有相当大的投资，也在湿砂处理方面有所投入。此外，今年还进行了大量的双燃料技术升级，digiFrac以及其他基础设施升级，包括搅拌机等设备的升级。这些是主要的支出。
Keith Mackey
Okay. Got it. And just to follow-up, would it be fair to assume then that next year, your maintenance CapEx in the frac business is roughly similar to that and then you had four to five digiFleets at maybe $50 million each and your total frac CapEx ends up $400 million to $450 million? Is that how we should be thinking about it at this point?
明白了。然后，作为后续问题，是否可以假设明年压裂业务的维护资本支出大致与今年相似，另外再增加四到五台digiFleets，每台可能花费5000万美元，那么压裂业务的总资本支出大概在4亿到4.5亿美元之间？我们现在是不是可以这么理解？
Michael Stock
Yeah, you're in the general realm of sensibility there, yeah.
是的，你在那里的感觉是合理的，是的。
Keith Mackey
Yeah. Okay. And just one more, if I can. Just to maybe put some of the commentary into numbers for Q4, it looks like with the revenue decline being similar year-over-year and the higher decremental, like we should be getting somewhere between $170 million and $180 million of EBITDA. Is that also in the right ballpark there, Michael?
好的。最后，如果可以的话，我想通过数字来理解一下第四季度的评论。看起来由于收入下降幅度与去年基本相似，并且减量效应较高，我们的EBITDA大约在1.7亿到1.8亿美元之间，是这个范围对吗，迈克尔？
Michael Stock
Reasonable estimation. 合理估计。
Keith Mackey
Okay. That's it. Thanks very much.
好的。就这样。非常感谢。
Operator 操作员
And the next question comes from Jeff LeBlanc with TPH. Please go ahead.
接下来的问题来自 TPH 的 Jeff LeBlanc。请继续。
Jeff LeBlanc
Good morning, Chris and team. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to follow-up on the comment on CapEx of Q4 of $200 million. I'm just curious if you're pulling forward CapEx from 2025 or what's causing the increase, because I believe on the prior call, the estimate was $550 million for the full year. Thank you.
早上好，Chris 和团队，谢谢你们接受我的提问。我想跟进一下关于第四季度2亿美元资本支出的评论。我很好奇，这是不是把2025年的资本支出提前安排了，还是说有什么其他原因导致支出的增加？因为我记得在之前的电话会议上，全年资本支出的预估是5.5亿美元。谢谢。
Michael Stock
Yeah, it's deliveries, it's kind of a combination of sort of I think there's been a lot of debottlenecking going on in some of our delivery partners. I think we had -- they had some fairly significant issues around their assembly lines and kind of -- and so there's a lot of that debottlenecking was happening at the end -- through the back end of summer, the early part of fall. And I think they've got that together. So, I think the delivery cycle and ergo the sort of where things were going to fall as expectation is reasonable. And then, we've sort of had some extra wet sand additions and a few other things that kind of have added to the Q4 that are probably added -- of order of those things.
是的，主要是交付问题，实际上是几个因素的结合。我认为我们的一些交付合作伙伴在交付过程中出现了一些瓶颈问题。他们的组装线遇到了一些相当大的问题，因此很多的去瓶颈工作发生在夏季末期和秋季初期。我认为他们已经解决了这些问题。所以，交付周期和预期的安排是合理的。然后，我们还增加了一些湿砂处理的设备和其他一些支出，这些也增加了第四季度的支出，这些支出大致是这样的数量级。
Jeff LeBlanc
Thank you very much. I'll turn the call back over to the operator.
非常感谢。我将把电话交还给接线员。
Michael Stock
Thanks. 谢谢。
Chris Wright
Thanks, Jeff. 谢谢，杰夫。
Operator 操作员
And our next question comes from Roger Read with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
接下来的问题来自富国银行的 Roger Read。请继续。
Chris Wright
Hey, Roger. 嘿，罗杰。
Roger Read
Hey, good morning, guys. Just wanted to kind of follow-up on some of your comments about this, call it, seasonality or CapEx exhaustion issues next month and into December. One of the things we hear from the E&P companies is that they like to pursue this productivity and efficiency and it requires pretty consistent operations. Does the opening in, call it, activity levels or jobs reflect kind of a mix? Is this mostly smaller private E&Ps? Is it guys exposed more to gas or maybe it makes sense to take a little time off here? Or are you seeing this across kind of the entire area of operations, meaning large E&Ps all the way down to the small privates?
早上好，大家。我想跟进一下你们关于季节性或资本支出疲劳问题的评论，尤其是下个月和12月。我们从E&P公司那里听到的一个观点是，他们喜欢追求生产力和效率，这需要持续一致的运营。你们看到的活动水平或工作量的变化是由什么原因造成的？是主要由较小的私人E&P公司造成的？还是那些更多暴露于天然气市场的公司？或许在这个时点稍微停下来是有道理的？还是你们看到这种情况出现在整个运营领域，从大型E&P公司到小型私人公司都有涉及？
Chris Wright
I think you've given a reasonable summary, Roger. It's mostly smaller. It could be small publics. The very biggest players, I would say for sure are the most steadfast in keeping things going, keeping efficiency on track and not ceasing operations. But even those, occasionally they'll be, geez, we're too efficient, so there's a frac holiday, a brief break. But I would say, yeah, it's mostly smaller players. Definitely, it's gas players. Gas has been a hard thing to predict and plans have evolved a lot over the last 12 to 24 months with the gas players. So, yeah, I think your summary at the beginning was reasonable.
Roger，你的总结很到位。主要是较小的公司，可能也包括一些小型的上市公司。对于最大的几家玩家，我可以说它们更坚定地维持运营，保持效率，并不停止运营。但即使是这些大公司，有时也会出现“我们太高效了，做一个短暂的压裂假期”这样的情况。所以，我认为，是的，主要还是较小的玩家。特别是天然气公司，天然气市场一直很难预测，过去12到24个月，天然气公司的计划变化非常大。所以，我认为你一开始的总结是合理的。
Roger Read
So, are you implying that it's going to become easier to forecast gas after 12 months?
那么，你是在暗示 12 个月后预测天然气会变得更容易吗？
Chris Wright
Yeah, good humor, but again, as you've seen, we're probably at a level of gas activity right now that's below even keeping production flat. So no, it's not going to be easy to predict it, but instead of a bouncing trend down, it might be more of a bouncing trend up.
哈哈，玩笑归玩笑，但正如你所看到的，我们目前的天然气活动水平实际上低于保持生产平稳的水平。所以，不，天然气的预测不会变得容易，但趋势可能会有所变化——可能不会再是一个下行的波动趋势，而是一个上行的波动趋势。
Roger Read
Yeah, I'm just checking you there. I was trying to sure you were still standing on two feet. The other question I know we understand completion CapEx will likely trend lower, but if we were to see, let's call it, a solid move up or a solid move down in commodity prices. What is your flexibility to either defer spending or to pull spending forward as you look at the supply chains out there?
是的，我只是再确认一下，我在确保你还站稳了脚跟。另一个问题是，我们知道完工资本支出可能会下降，但如果我们看到商品价格有明显的上涨或下跌，你们在供应链方面的灵活性如何？你们有多大灵活性来推迟支出或提前支出？
Michael Stock
Yeah, I mean, we've got very -- we have very strong ability to defer or bring spending forward. But that said, it really has sort of a three- to five-months window, sort of as far as deliveries goes. You can defer deliveries. We've done that before. You think about closes, we pushed off deliveries and we pushed those off nine to 12 months in partnership with our people, so in extreme circumstances, but in general, you've got a three- to five-month window there where it's not going to change, but you can meaningfully change CapEx within a 12-month period.
是的，我们的确有非常强的能力来推迟或提前支出。但需要说明的是，这通常有三到五个月的窗口期，特别是在交付方面。你可以推迟交付，我们以前也做过这样的事情。比如说，当我们遇到关闭时，我们把交付推迟了9到12个月，这是与我们的合作伙伴一起做的，虽然是在极端情况下。但一般来说，你在12个月的周期内是可以显著调整资本支出的，但通常不会发生根本性的变化。
Roger Read
Okay. Great. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.
好的。太好了。感谢。谢谢，大家。
Chris Wright
Thanks, Roger. 谢谢，罗杰。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Waqar Syed with ATB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
我们的下一个问题来自 ATB 资本市场的 Waqar Syed。请继续。
Waqar Syed
Thank you very much. Good morning. Chris, I just wanted to get a sense on by when do you think LPI could have a material impact on the revenue line that would be maybe something that 10% of revenues could be LPI. Is that like two to three years out, or is it you're looking at five, six years out? Any guidance on that would be helpful.
非常感谢，早上好。Chris，我想了解一下，LPI可能对收入产生重大影响的时间点大概是什么时候？你认为LPI的收入占比可能在两到三年内达到10%，还是说你预期这需要五到六年的时间？任何关于这方面的指导都将非常有帮助。
Chris Wright
Yeah, well, it's not five to six years. It's certainly faster than that. But for us, as with our core frac business, it's always more about doing it right than doing it big or doing it fast. So -- but two to three years is probably not unreasonable expectation.
是的，肯定不会是五到六年。肯定会比那更快。但对于我们来说，就像我们的核心压裂业务一样，重要的始终是做对的事情，而不是做得快或做得大。所以，可能两到三年是一个合理的预期。
Waqar Syed
Okay. And then, from an activity perspective, pumping activity perspective for next year, you're mentioning that you see activity needs to go up to maintain crude oil production. Where do you expect activity to pick up? Do you think it's going to be mostly Permian, or do you think Bakken and Eagle Ford also sees some activity increases? And then, when do you expect Haynesville activity to kind of pick up?
明白了。然后，关于明年活动量的预期，你提到需要增加活动量以维持原油生产。你认为活动量会在哪些地方增加？你认为主要会是Permian盆地，还是Bakken和Eagle Ford也会有活动量的增加？另外，你预计Haynesville的活动什么时候会增加？
Chris Wright
Wow, those are all the hard questions, Waqar. But I think it will be across basins, for sure. Obviously, some of the northern areas, they slow down naturally in the wintertime. So, Q1 is often a little bit slower in Northern regions for weather, and Q2 and Q3 are busier. Permian doesn't really have a weather cycle per se. But it's certainly commodity price dependent.
哇，这些问题都很难，Waqar。但我认为活动量肯定会在各个盆地都有所增加。显然，一些北部地区冬季会自然放缓。所以，第一季度通常是北部地区天气原因导致活动量较低，第二和第三季度则比较忙。Permian盆地本身没有像其他地区那样的天气周期，但它肯定依赖于商品价格。
Look, if oil prices move, it doesn't wildly change things, but on the margin it does. We'll start a little earlier, we'll do this. So, in gas -- so look, I think in general across the basins, where we -- look, we're in Q4 right now, in general, if we look at six months from now, I think the average level of activity in the oil basin, it will be up from where it is today. How much is yet to be seen, but it will be up from where we are today.
看，如果油价上涨，虽然不会剧烈改变市场，但在边际上确实会有所影响。我们可能会提前启动一些活动，做一些准备。所以，就天然气而言，整体上看，我们目前处于第四季度，如果从现在起看六个月，我认为油气盆地的平均活动水平将会上升，尽管升幅大小尚未确定，但肯定会高于今天的水平。
And gas basins, that's probably a reasonable assumption as well. It's just activity is very low right now. We've got some great competitive advantage there. So, I mean, like our market share, our gas activity today is not insignificant, but it's not huge, but our market share is big. So, if that gas activity is maybe a little higher six months from now, maybe meaningfully higher 12 months from now, but that's just a guess. That's just a guess. I shouldn't -- I probably be predicting that too much.
至于天然气盆地，这个预期也可能是合理的。只是当前的活动量非常低。我们在这方面有很大的竞争优势。所以，像我们现在的天然气活动量虽然不是很大，但市场份额却很大。所以，如果六个月后天然气的活动量可能会稍微增高，12个月后可能会大幅增加，但这只是个猜测。我不应该过多预测这个。
Waqar Syed
Okay. And then, the pricing pressures that you're seeing, is that now across entire fleet or is it still more on the Tier 2s and maybe Tier 2 dual fuel as well, or now it's permeated to e-fleets and Tier 4 DGBs as well?
好的。那么，你们现在看到的定价压力是遍及整个车队吗？还是说主要集中在二线车队，可能还有二线双燃料车队？或者现在已经扩展到电动车队和Tier 4 DGB车队了吗？
Chris Wright
It's certainly strongest in legacy equipment, the least desirable equipment. That's where attrition is being driven, equipment being retired there as well. The high end natural gas burning fleets are much more desirous. But yeah, when you've got a softest market, there's a little bit of pressure everywhere. A newbuild fleet, we wouldn't do a newbuild fleet without great economics. So, yeah, not so much change at the top, but not zero.
定价压力确实在老旧设备中最为明显，这些设备是最不受欢迎的地方，也是设备淘汰的主要来源。高端天然气车队更受欢迎。但确实，在市场较为疲软的情况下，所有地方都有一些压力。对于新建车队，我们不会在没有良好经济效益的情况下建造新车队。所以，顶端的车队变化不大，但也不是完全没有变化。
Waqar Syed
Okay. Great. Well, thank you very much. Appreciate the color.
好的。太好了。非常感谢。感谢您的说明。
Chris Wright
Thanks, Waqar. 谢谢，Waqar。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Tom Curran with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.
我们下一个问题来自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Tom Curran。请继续。
Tom Curran
Good morning, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. Chris and Michael, in addition to everything you've accomplished via ever better execution in technology out in the field as Chris gave a comprehensive overview earlier in the call. You've also been pulling different levers internally to protect and sustain your record profitability amidst this long grinding downtrend in frac pricing. At this point, which ongoing initiatives do you expect to provide the most support to margins? Have you identified any new efficiency or cost-out opportunities that have yet to be meaningfully realized?
早上好，谢谢你们挤出时间回答我的问题。Chris 和 Michael，除了你们在现场通过不断改善执行和技术所取得的成绩（Chris在电话会议早些时候已经做了全面概述），你们还在内部拉动了不同的杠杆，以保护和维持在压裂定价长期下降趋势下的创纪录盈利水平。到目前为止，你们预计哪些持续的举措会对利润率提供最大支持？有没有发现任何尚未显著实现的效率提升或成本削减机会？
Chris Wright
I'm going to -- look, there's so many incremental things, I'm going to turn it over to Ron. And he can deal with medium-term projects and long-term projects. But you're right and I appreciate you pointing them out that that is always an effort for us. We don't control the marketplace, but we do drive our own self-improvement. And that's always in two buckets that how can we deliver a better service to our customers and how can we do the same thing more efficiently cheaper?
我来回答一下，确实有很多增量性的工作，我将把问题交给Ron，他可以处理中期和长期的项目。你说得对，我很感谢你指出这一点，我们始终在努力。我们不能控制市场，但我们能推动自我改进。这个努力始终分为两个方面：如何为我们的客户提供更好的服务，如何以更高效、低成本的方式做同样的事情。
Ron Gusek
Yeah, I mean, certainly a number of areas of focus there for us, obviously on the digiFleet side of things, the maintenance outlook changes pretty meaningfully. We're building an asset there that is longer lived, and that's true on both the digiPrime and the digiFrac side of things. If you think about the electric side of things, of course, the maintenance profile looks very different there, both on the pump side and on the power generation side of things.
是的，当然我们关注的领域很多，显然在digiFleet方面，维护前景有了很大的变化。我们正在建设的资产寿命更长，这对于digiPrime和digiFrac来说都是如此。如果你考虑电动设备，维护情况有很大不同，无论是在泵的部分，还是在发电部分。
And the same is true in the digiPrime world. We're building an asset there that has a very different maintenance profile than our historical diesel assets. And so, a lot of work that's been going on in that regard. And we're certainly taking those learnings and applying them throughout the fleet as we advance our machine learning capabilities around our ability to understand how an asset is performing and respond to that in the field.
在digiPrime领域也是如此，我们正在建设一个与我们历史上的柴油设备有着完全不同维护特征的资产。我们在这方面投入了大量的工作，并且我们肯定会将这些经验应用到整个车队，随着我们在机器学习能力方面的进展，我们能更好地理解设备的表现，并根据这些数据在现场做出响应。
Lots of other work going on that ultimately changes our outcomes. Automation has been a big thing. We've been focused on automating the operation of our fleet all the way from the sand handling side of things through the chemistry side of things and into the pump side of things. And so, an immense amount of work going there. You can imagine that as we continue to automate these things, we improve operations out there, you see that both in our efficiency, but you also see that in the maintenance profile for the assets.
除此之外，还有很多其他工作在进行，最终会改变我们的结果。自动化是一个重点。我们一直在专注于自动化我们的车队操作，从砂石处理到化学品处理，再到泵的操作。这里有大量的工作。你可以想象，随着我们继续自动化这些流程，我们能改善现场操作，这不仅体现在效率上，还体现在设备的维护特征上。
A huge amount of work on the logistics side of things, we've got Sentinel out and running across the board from a sand handling standpoint, that has dramatically changed our efficiencies from a sand handling and trucking measure. We're probably down about 30% in the number of trucks required to move sand to a location versus pre-Sentinel deployment. We're rolling that out across our LPI division as well. We're using that same technology to manage our gas deliveries and improve the efficiencies there at the same time.
在物流方面的工作也非常重要，我们已经推出了Sentinel技术，全面应用于砂石处理，这大大提高了我们在砂石处理和卡车运输方面的效率。与部署Sentinel之前相比，我们运送砂石到现场所需的卡车数量减少了约30%。我们也在LPI部门推广这一技术，利用相同的技术管理我们的天然气交付，同时提高效率。
You're going to see us -- our percentage of fleets working in the simul frac space climb over the coming year as well. We probably just by virtue of our customer base not had as high a percentage of our fleets working in that space as some others have, but that's climbing for us in the coming year as well. And so, of course, we've seen efficiencies come as a result of that on a per lateral foot per hour completed basis and we're going to feel the benefit of that as we head into next year too.
在接下来的一年里，我们的车队在模拟压裂（simul frac）领域的工作比例也将上升。凭借我们的客户群，我们可能在这一领域的车队比例没有其他公司那么高，但我们预计这一比例会在未来一年增长。因此，当然我们已经看到，在每个水平英尺每小时完成的基础上，由此带来的效率提升，随着我们进入明年，我们也将感受到这些效益。
Tom Curran
Got it. A lot to chew on there. Thanks, Ron. And then just with LPI, you guys have once again skated to where the puck is headed in terms of the need for technology solution, in this case, for next-gen power support and logistics out in the field. Looking to 2025, could you share any quantified targets or expectations you have for LPI, be they operational or financial?
明白了，信息量很大，谢谢，Ron。然后关于LPI，你们再次精准地抓住了技术解决方案的需求，特别是在下一代电力支持和现场物流方面。展望2025年，能否分享一些你们对LPI的量化目标或预期，无论是运营上的还是财务上的？
Michael Stock
No, I mean, that's coming clarification over the Q4 bound. I mean, that is as we've said, this is something that we'll discuss in the January call. So, we'll kind of look at that and I think kind of a more of a holistic view of what that business will look like.
不，这个问题会在第四季度的结束时进行澄清。正如我们所说的，这个问题我们会在1月的电话会议上讨论。到时我们会从更全面的角度来看这个业务的发展情况。
Tom Curran
Okay. But it sounds like there is more coming that we can look forward to there, Michael?
好的。但听起来好像还有更多值得我们期待的，迈克尔？
Michael Stock
There certainly is -- we're very excited about it. But as you know, we're not [indiscernible] where we very much we talk about things. We're the tortoise, not the hair. We talk about things when they're ready to go and we always -- we may not be first to market, but we always seem to end up winning.
确实如此——我们非常激动。但如你所知，我们不会过早透露信息。我们是乌龟而不是兔子。我们会在事情准备好时再谈论它们，我们总是——我们可能不是市场上最早的，但我们似乎总能最终获胜。
Tom Curran
I appreciate that. Thanks for taking my questions.
我对此表示感谢。谢谢你回答我的问题。
Chris Wright
Thanks. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from Eddie Kim with Barclays. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自巴克莱的 Eddie Kim。请继续。
Eddie Kim
Hey, good morning. Just thanks for squeezing me in here. I'll just keep it to one question. But just wanted to dig into the softness you're seeing in 4Q a bit more. It just feels like the market has softened pretty substantially over the past three months. So, could you talk about what's really surprised you or what got much worse than you initially expected back in July? Is it mainly kind of the volatility in oil prices that's causing operator uncertainty as you mentioned, or operators reaching their production targets for the year earlier than expected? Just any color on what the main negative surprise was for you guys over the past three months?
早上好，谢谢你们挤出时间回答我的问题。我就问一个问题。我想更深入了解一下你们在第四季度看到的市场疲软。过去三个月里，市场似乎出现了相当大的疲软。能否谈谈这其中有哪些方面超出了你们的预期，或者是过去三个月中比你们在7月时预期的要严重的因素？是油价的波动导致了你们提到的运营商不确定性，还是运营商提前达成了年度生产目标？请提供一些关于过去三个月的负面意外情况的背景。
Chris Wright
I'd say a little bit of both. Think of consolidation, you bring acreages together and now you are mostly drilling two miles and now you -- by early this year, you start drilling a lot of three- and four-mile laterals, and they worked. They worked well. Efficiency got them done quickly. Production came on strong. So, I think part of it is some positive on productivity efficiency gains from bigger operators focusing in the sweet spot. So, I think that's a good chunk of it. Definitely the softening in oil prices on a margin like where we're going to kind of hang here or take a little break, maybe we're going to take a little break. So, it's a little bit of both of those.
我觉得这两者都有一些影响。想想看，整合了多个矿区之后，你会发现以前你主要在钻探两英里深的井，而到了今年年初，你开始钻探三到四英里的井，而且这些井工作得非常好，效率高，生产也很强劲。所以，我认为部分原因是大运营商聚焦于甜点区，生产效率的提升带来了积极的效果。这是其中的一部分。确实，油价的软化也让我们处于一个有点停滞的边缘，可能需要稍微休息一下。所以这两者都有影响。
But when you think of the productivity gains of the wells, a lot of that's kind of one-time big gear shifts. In general, next year, the average quality of the drilling location is going to be lower than it was this year. And three or four years from -- out from now, it's going to be lower still. That doesn't mean shale revolution is over ending. It just means we'll see a continued migration up in frac intensity. Or maybe another way to say it is, we'll see a continued migration in that more pounds of sand have to be pumped underground on an annual basis to get the same amount of oil out of the ground on an annual basis.
但当你考虑到井的生产力提升时，很多都是一次性的大规模调整。从总体来看，明年钻探位置的平均质量将低于今年，而三四年后，质量可能还会更低。这并不意味着页岩革命的结束，只是意味着我们将继续看到压裂强度的增加。换句话说，意味着为了从地下提取相同量的石油，年均所需压裂的沙子量将继续增加。
So, we have a longer-term macro trend that's sort of modestly positive. But in the short term, we were sort of victims of our own success, a little bit increased well productivity and the pricing as well, a little bit of both.
所以，我们有一个长期的宏观趋势，虽然是温和的积极趋势。但在短期内，我们有点成为自己成功的牺牲品，一方面是井的生产力提高，另一方面是定价压力，也有两者的因素。
Eddie Kim
Got it. Understood. Thanks for all that color, Chris. I'll turn it back.
明白了。了解。谢谢你提供的所有信息，Chris。我会交还的。
Chris Wright
Thanks. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
And our next question comes from John Daniel with Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead.
接下来的问题来自 Daniel Energy Partners 的 John Daniel。请继续。
John Daniel
Hey, good morning. Thanks for including me. Chris, as you probably know, there are a number of E&P management teams that now have private equity backing and should probably start up in '25. I'm just curious if that is factored into your '25 outlook and presumably that would drive upside to your spot market views?
早上好，谢谢你们让我提问。Chris，正如你可能知道的那样，现在有很多E&P管理团队得到了私人股本的支持，预计这些团队可能会在2025年开始运作。我只是好奇，这些因素是否已经反映在你们的2025年展望中，假设这些因素会推动你们对现货市场的预期上行？
Chris Wright
Yeah. Definitely not driven into our views right now. We certainly are in dialogues with lots of them. There are people we know. And it's smaller number of teams, but there's a fair amount of dry capital powder looking for divestitures and opportunities to get assets. So, yeah, look, as a lifelong entrepreneur, that's exciting. But John, no, not baking in any of that happening, but yeah, some of that's eventually going to happen, absolutely.
是的，当前我们并没有把这些因素纳入我们的预期中。我们当然与很多这样的团队有对话。这些团队中的很多是我们熟悉的，虽然团队数量较少，但确实有相当多的资本准备好寻找资产出售和机会。所以，作为一个终生的企业家，这一点让人兴奋。但John，实际上我们并没有把这些情况考虑到我们的预期中，但最终肯定会有一些事情发生，绝对是这样。
John Daniel
Right. And then, Michael, you touched on the possibility of pricing improvements next year, and I think the attrition story is real, bankruptcies, liquidations are happening, perhaps some consolidation and then a rise in spot market activity as new players emerge. It would seem to me that when that all happens, all else being equal, it's the pricing recovery is probably not low single digit, but something perhaps more substantial at least in the spot market. Is that a fair assessment?
明白了。然后，Michael，你提到了明年可能的定价改善，我认为设备淘汰的情况确实存在，破产和清算正在发生，可能还会有一些整合，随着新玩家的出现，现货市场活动量的上升。对我来说，当这一切发生时，其他条件相同，定价的恢复可能不只是低个位数的增长，而是更为显著的增长，至少在现货市场上。这算是一个公平的评估吗？
Michael Stock
There's certainly one way you can look at it. If you look at the '21, '22 example, yes, we've got some historical -- recent historical kind of evidence of that. So yeah, so I think it will be -- we'll see what it is when it comes. As you like to see, I think we -- as we said, it's unnaturally soft in the market at the moment. And the animal spirits will take hold, and I think we may see improvement next year.
你可以从这个角度来看，确实，如果我们回顾21年、22年的例子，最近的历史数据确实证明了这一点。所以，我认为这一切会随着时间的推移逐步显现。正如你所说，我们目前的市场确实异常疲软，市场情绪会占上风，我认为明年可能会看到一定的改善。
John Daniel
Okay. And this is probably a leading question, so I apologize, I guess, maybe not, but if I were modeling 2026, which I'm not, doesn't this flow through coupled with lower R&M, the rise in LPI and eventually a higher call in OFS activity given lower-quality rock, it would seem that you could have a material improvement in '26 versus '25?
好的。这可能是一个引导性问题，我为此道歉，或者说，也许不是。但如果我在建模2026年的情况，尽管我现在并没有这么做，那么这一系列情况，结合更低的维修和维护费用、LPI的增长，以及随着岩层质量下降，OFS活动最终的上升，似乎意味着2026年可能会有显著的改善，相比于2025年会有更大的增长？
Michael Stock
That certainly would be a very reasonable assumption.
这当然是一个非常合理的假设。
John Daniel
Okay. And then, the last one for me, sorry to be a question hog, but I think there's a question early on the power generation CapEx. As we talk to people in that side of the business, it would seem that those -- that CapEx would likely be back with contractual support perhaps longer term than what you normally see in the frac market. Is that a fair assessment?
好的，然后是我最后一个问题，抱歉占用了很多时间，但我记得之前有提到过关于电力生成的资本支出问题。我们与这个行业的人接触时，似乎这些资本支出很可能会得到合同支持，可能会有比你们通常在压裂市场中看到的更长期的支持。这是一个公平的评估吗？
Michael Stock
Yeah, that is a fair assessment.
是的，这是一个公正的评价。
John Daniel
Okay. That's all I got. Thanks for including me.
好的。这就是我所知道的。谢谢你把我包括在内。
Chris Wright
John, I appreciate you [indiscernible] in the field. That's much appreciated by everyone.
约翰，我感谢你在这个领域的贡献。大家都非常感激。
John Daniel
Well, thank you. Thank you. See you guys.
好的，谢谢。谢谢。再见。
Operator 操作员
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Wright for any closing remarks.
这就结束了我们的问答环节。我想把会议交还给克里斯·赖特，以便他作任何结束发言。
Chris Wright
Thank you. Thanks for joining us today. Since the first edition of our Bettering Human Lives report, we have raised awareness of energy security. In January this year, we took important, deliberate steps to address global energy poverty by launching the Bettering Human Lives Foundation to address a major fixable problem. The over 2 billion people who lack access to clean cooking fuels and therefore cook every meal using wood, charcoal, or dung. This problem results in over 3 million annual preventable deaths from indoor air pollution, more than malaria, AIDS, and tuberculosis combined. I view this as the largest fixable problem with so far very little concerted efforts to address it.
谢谢大家，感谢你们今天的参与。自从我们发布第一版《改善人类生活报告》以来，我们一直在提高能源安全的意识。今年1月，我们采取了重要而有意识的措施来应对全球能源贫困，成立了“改善人类生活基金会”，旨在解决一个可以修复的重大问题——超过20亿人无法获得清洁烹饪燃料，因此每天都用木材、木炭或粪便做饭。这个问题导致每年有超过300万人因室内空气污染而死亡，这一数字比疟疾、艾滋病和结核病加起来还要多。我认为这是一个最大的可以修复的问题，至今为止，解决这一问题的努力还非常有限。
The Bettering Human Lives Foundation has created active partnerships and provided loans to entrepreneurial businesses in both Ghana and Kenya to increase access to clean cooking fuels. In Ghana, our partner has built propane cylinder exchange cages to get propane into communities. In both countries, our partners will convert large boarding school kitchens from burning copious amounts of wood to clean burning propane for student meals. Thousands of student lives will be improved with each conversion made.
“改善人类生活基金会”已经创建了积极的合作伙伴关系，并为加纳和肯尼亚的创业企业提供贷款，以增加清洁烹饪燃料的可获得性。在加纳，我们的合作伙伴已经建立了丙烷气瓶交换棚，把丙烷带入社区。在这两个国家，我们的合作伙伴将把大规模的寄宿学校厨房从使用大量木材烧饭转换为使用清洁的丙烷为学生们做饭。每次转换都会改善成千上万学生的生活。
Further, our partnership with an innovative American company will soon early in 2025 dramatically lower the barrier to entry to switching the propane stoves. It will allow the piecewise selling of propane contained in large cylinders, allowing consumers to pay a small amount each time they cook as opposed to having to upfront purchase for nearly a month's supply. This is a major barrier to entry for families who otherwise would make the switch to clean cooking fuels by reducing the upfront payment by a factor of 10. This could be transformative in speeding adoption of clean cooking fuels.
此外，我们与一家创新的美国公司合作，预计在2025年初，能显著降低更换丙烷炉具的进入门槛。这项技术将允许分期销售丙烷气瓶，让消费者每次做饭时支付少量费用，而不是一次性支付接近一个月的费用。这是一个重要的进入壁垒，尤其是对那些原本可能会转换到清洁烹饪燃料的家庭，降低了10倍的前期支付。通过这种方式，这将有助于加速清洁烹饪燃料的普及。
We are also partnering with the same American stove manufacturer to open a facility in Ghana to produce these stoves locally, lowering costs and growing supply. You can find out more about all of this at betteringhumanlives.org.
我们还与同一家美国炉具制造商合作，在加纳开设了一家生产这些炉具的工厂，降低成本并增加供应。你可以在 betteringhumanlives.org 网站上了解更多相关信息。
The American shale revolution has dramatically increased waterborne global propane supplies. Our aim is to bring the benefits of this surge in new supply to those desperately in need of clean cooking fuels. My heartfelt thank you to all of existing and future partners in this life changing endeavor. And if you're in Colorado this weekend, please join us for our inaugural 5K run supporting the Bettering Human Lives Foundation this weekend. Have a great day everyone.
美国的页岩革命极大地增加了全球水路运输的丙烷供应。我们的目标是将这一新供应的好处带给那些急需清洁烹饪燃料的人们。衷心感谢所有现有和未来的合作伙伴，感谢你们为这一改变生命的事业所作的贡献。如果你们这个周末在科罗拉多州，请加入我们支持“改善人类生活基金会”的首届5公里跑步活动。祝大家有个愉快的一天！
Operator 操作员
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
会议现已结束。感谢您参加今天的演讲。您现在可以断开连接。