2024-10-18 American Express Company (AXP) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call October 18, 2024 8:30 AM ET
美国运通公司 (纽约证券交易所:AXP) 2024 年第三季度收益电话会议 2024 年 10 月 18 日 上午 8:30 ET
Company Participants 公司参与者
Kartik Ramachandran - Head of Investor Relations
卡尔蒂克·拉马钱德兰 - 投资者关系负责人
Stephen Squeri - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
斯蒂芬·斯奎里 - 董事长兼首席执行官
Christophe Le Caillec - Chief Financial Officer
克里斯托夫·勒·卡耶克 - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
Sanjay Sakhrani - KBW 桑杰·萨克拉尼 - KBW
Ryan Nash - Goldman Sachs
瑞安·纳什 - 高盛
Craig Maurer - FT Partners
克雷格·毛雷尔 - FT 合伙人
Richard Shane - JPMorgan 理查德·谢恩 - 摩根大通
Erika Najarian - UBS 埃里卡·纳贾里安 - 瑞银集团
Donald Fandetti - Wells Fargo
唐纳德·范德蒂 - 富国银行
Jeffrey Adelson - Morgan Stanley
杰弗里·阿德尔森 - 摩根士丹利
Cristopher Kennedy - William Blair
克里斯托弗·肯尼迪 - 威廉·布莱尔
Saul Martinez - HSBC 索尔·马丁内斯 - 汇丰银行
Terry Ma - Barclays 特里·马 - 巴克莱
Mark DeVries - Deutsche Bank
马克·德弗里斯 - 德意志银行
Mihir Bhatia - Bank of America
米希尔·巴蒂亚 - 美国银行
Operator 操作员
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Express Q3 2024 Earnings Call. At this time all participants are on in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]
女士们，先生们，感谢您的耐心等待。欢迎参加美国运通 2024 年第三季度财报电话会议。此时，所有参与者都处于只听模式。稍后我们将进行问答环节。[操作员说明]
As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Kartik Ramachandran. Thank you, please go ahead.
提醒您，今天的电话会议正在录音。现在，我想把会议交给我们的主持人，投资者关系负责人 Kartik Ramachandran 先生。谢谢，请继续。
Kartik Ramachandran 卡尔蒂克·拉马钱德兰
Thank you, Donna, and thank you all for joining today's call. As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance. These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.
谢谢，唐娜，也感谢大家参加今天的电话会议。提醒一下，在我们开始之前，今天的讨论包含关于公司未来业务和财务表现的前瞻性声明。这些声明基于管理层当前的预期，并受到风险和不确定性的影响。可能导致实际结果与这些声明有重大差异的因素已包含在今天的演示文稿中以及我们提交给美国证券交易委员会的报告中。
The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures. The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials, as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed. All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com. We'll begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results. And then Christophe Le Caillec, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance. After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Christophe.
今天的讨论还包含非 GAAP 财务指标。可比的 GAAP 财务指标包含在本季度的收益材料中，以及我们讨论的前期收益材料中。所有这些都发布在我们的网站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。我们今天将由董事长兼首席执行官 Steve Squeri 开始，他将首先介绍公司进展和业绩的一些评论。然后，首席财务官 Christophe Le Caillec 将提供我们财务表现的更详细审查。之后，我们将与 Steve 和 Christophe 一起进入关于业绩的问答环节。
With that, let me turn it over to Steve.
对此，我将把话交给史蒂夫。
Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬·斯奎里
Good morning, and thanks for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. We had another strong quarter that reflects the steady earnings power of our business model and our continued investments for growth. Earnings per share in the third quarter were $3.49 and revenues were $16.6 billion, up 8% over last year, marking our 10th consecutive quarter of record revenues.
早上好，感谢您参加我们的第三季度财报电话会议。我们又度过了一个强劲的季度，这反映了我们商业模式的稳定盈利能力以及我们为增长而持续进行的投资。第三季度每股收益为 3.49 美元，收入为 166 亿美元，比去年增长 8%，标志着我们连续第十个季度创下收入纪录。
Based on our performance to date and the strong earnings we're generating, we are raising our full-year EPS guidance to between $13.75 and $14.05, up from $13.30 to $13.80. And we continue to expect full-year revenue growth that is within the guidance range we provided at the beginning of the year at around 9%. I feel good about our performance to-date and the ongoing strength of our business, and I remain confident in our long-term growth prospects.
根据我们迄今为止的表现和我们正在产生的强劲收益，我们将全年每股收益指导上调至 13.75 美元至 14.05 美元之间，高于之前的 13.30 美元至 13.80 美元。我们继续预计全年收入增长将在我们年初提供的指导范围内，约为 9%。我对我们迄今为止的表现和我们业务的持续强劲感到满意，并对我们的长期增长前景保持信心。
A key reason for my confidence is the sustainability of our product refresh strategy and the growth it is generating across our portfolio. We have already achieved our plan of refreshing 40 products globally this year, and we expect to do several more by year end. As we do so we're adding value to our offerings by embedding new benefits and services that reflect the financial and lifestyle needs of our existing premium card members and attract new ones. A great example of this is the US Consumer Gold Card.
我充满信心的一个关键原因是我们产品更新策略的可持续性以及它在我们产品组合中产生的增长。我们今年已经实现了全球更新 40 款产品的计划，并预计在年底前还会有更多更新。在此过程中，我们通过嵌入反映现有高端卡会员的财务和生活方式需求的新福利和服务来增加我们产品的价值，并吸引新会员。一个很好的例子是美国消费者金卡。
We talk a lot about the Platinum Card and with good reason, but the Gold Card is also a critically important product in our portfolio. Gold is a very popular product with total US Consumer Gold acquisitions, currently running at about 30% higher than Platinum. And it's our number one premium product for Millennial and Gen-Z consumers, with 80% of US Gold Cards we acquire coming from this cohort. In designing the refresh Gold Card, which we launched in the third quarter, we know that Millennials and Gen-Zs are especially interested in dining. In fact, these younger card members transact almost two times more on dining and make up a higher percentage of users on our Resy restaurant booking platform than other generations in our card member base.
我们经常谈论白金卡，这是有充分理由的，但金卡在我们的产品组合中也是至关重要的产品。金卡非常受欢迎，目前美国消费者金卡的新增用户比白金卡高出约30%。它是我们针对千禧一代和Z世代消费者的首要高端产品，我们获得的美国金卡中有80%来自这一群体。在设计第三季度推出的新版金卡时，我们了解到千禧一代和Z世代对餐饮特别感兴趣。事实上，这些年轻持卡人在餐饮方面的消费次数几乎是其他代际的两倍，并且在我们的Resy餐厅预订平台上，年轻持卡人的比例也高于其他代际的用户。
With that in mind, we enhance the already rich dining benefits that come with Gold Card membership, and as we've done with other refreshes, the value of the additional benefits is greater than the annual fee increase. While it's very early days, we're seeing strong new account acquisitions and continued high retention levels among existing US Gold Card members, indicating that our customers see real value in the enhancements we've made. This is a pattern we see when we refresh our products. We add value that resonates with premium customers and we price for that enhanced value, which results in strong acquisition and retention numbers that drive spending and consistently strong growth in subscription-like fee revenues.
考虑到这一点，我们增强了金卡会员附带的已经丰富的餐饮福利，并且正如我们在其他更新中所做的那样，额外福利的价值大于年费的增加。虽然现在还处于早期阶段，但我们看到新的账户获取强劲，现有美国金卡会员的保留率持续较高，这表明我们的客户看到了我们所做改进的真正价值。这是我们在更新产品时看到的模式。我们增加了与高端客户产生共鸣的价值，并为这种增强的价值定价，这导致了强劲的获取和保留数字，推动了消费和类似订阅费收入的持续强劲增长。
The Gold Card is just one example of how dining is playing an increasingly integral role in our membership model. Dining is an important category across our premium customer base. In fact, spending on restaurants continues to be one of our fastest growing T&E categories in our US Consumer business, increasing 7% in Q3 versus last year and growing at nearly twice the industry rate overall since 2019. And with total restaurant, food service spend estimated at $1 trillion in the US, dining represents a significant opportunity for us to further differentiate Amex membership. This is why we're investing and building out our dining capabilities.
金卡只是餐饮在我们的会员模式中扮演越来越重要角色的一个例子。餐饮是我们高端客户群中的一个重要类别。事实上，在我们的美国消费者业务中，餐馆消费继续成为我们增长最快的 T&E 类别之一，第三季度同比增长 7%，自 2019 年以来整体增长速度几乎是行业的两倍。随着美国餐馆和食品服务的总消费估计达到 1 万亿美元，餐饮为我们提供了一个显著的机会，以进一步区分 Amex 会员。这就是为什么我们正在投资并拓展我们的餐饮能力。
受互联网影响较小的领域。
First with the acquisition of Resy in 2019, and more recently with the additions of Tock in Rome, both of which have closed since we announced them in Q2. We've made significant progress to-date. We've successfully scaled Resy since acquiring the company with over 50 million registered users, and in the last 12 months alone, the platform has seeded over 350 million diners. We're also embedding Resy benefits in several of our value propositions, including the US Gold Card I just mentioned, as well as our US Consumer Platinum Card and the Refresh Premium Delta SkyMiles co-branded cards we announced in February.
首先是 2019 年收购 Resy，最近又在罗马增加了 Tock，自从我们在第二季度宣布以来，这两者都已完成。到目前为止，我们已经取得了显著进展。自从收购 Resy 以来，我们成功地扩展了该公司，注册用户超过 5000 万，仅在过去 12 个月中，该平台就为超过 3.5 亿名用餐者提供了服务。我们还将 Resy 的福利嵌入到我们的几个价值主张中，包括我刚才提到的美国金卡，以及我们的美国消费者白金卡和我们在二月份宣布的更新版 Delta SkyMiles 联名卡。
In addition to the many benefits for card members, Resy strengthens our membership model in other important ways. It connects our restaurant merchants with high spending premium customers while also providing them with state-of-the-art technology platform that helps them grow their businesses. Furthermore, Resy’s large user base gives us access to a pool of potential prospects who enjoy dining but do not yet have an American Express card. Our newest acquisitions will expand on the benefits we offer consumers and merchants, driving value for both. Tock extends our dining footprint with millions of additional users and thousands more bookable venues including wineries, hotels, and certain events in addition to restaurants.
除了为持卡会员提供的众多福利外，Resy 还通过其他重要方式加强了我们的会员模式。它将我们的餐厅商户与高消费的优质客户连接起来，同时为他们提供先进的技术平台，帮助他们发展业务。此外，Resy 庞大的用户群使我们能够接触到一批喜欢用餐但尚未拥有美国运通卡的潜在客户。我们最新的收购将扩大我们为消费者和商户提供的福利，为双方创造价值。Tock 通过数百万额外用户和数千个可预订场所（包括酒庄、酒店和某些活动以及餐厅）扩展了我们的餐饮足迹。
With Rome, hospitality merchants can have access to sophisticated integration capabilities across various restaurant management platforms and the ability to enhance live event and stadium experiences. While the competition is fierce in the dining space, we believe our business model advantages, including our premium customer base, the strong merchant relationship we have with restaurants and other hospitality providers and our membership model, position us well to continue our growth in this important category. As we demonstrate it, the investments we continue to make in our value propositions as reflected on our product refresh strategy and in our capabilities, as seen in the example of dining, are fueling our momentum. And these are just a couple of the examples of why I remain confident that our long-term growth aspirations are the right ones.
通过 Rome，酒店商家可以访问各种餐厅管理平台的复杂集成功能，并能够提升现场活动和体育场体验。虽然餐饮领域竞争激烈，但我们相信我们的商业模式优势，包括我们的高端客户群、与餐厅和其他酒店服务提供商的强大商家关系以及我们的会员模式，使我们在这一重要类别中能够继续增长。正如我们所展示的那样，我们在价值主张上的持续投资，如产品更新策略和能力方面的体现，以餐饮为例，正在推动我们的发展势头。这只是我对我们长期增长愿望充满信心的几个例子之一。
Thank you, and I'll now turn it over to Christophe for a more detailed look at our performance in the quarter.
谢谢，现在我将把时间交给克里斯托夫，让他更详细地介绍我们本季度的表现。
Christophe Le Caillec 克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Before going into the details of our third quarter results, I'd like to take a few minutes to step back and highlight the key takeaways from our year-to-date performance. First, our business model is performing really well. We had another solid quarter of earnings generation with EPS of $3.49, even as we continue to invest significantly in marketing and technology. The spend environment has been stable over the course of the year, and revenue growth is in-line with our expectations with a year-to-date FX adjusted growth of 10%. We continue to add many more customers to the franchise. Transaction engagement is deepening, and we benefit from our diverse set of customer types, revenue streams, and geographies.
谢谢你，史蒂夫，大家早上好。在详细介绍我们第三季度业绩之前，我想花几分钟回顾一下我们年初至今的表现要点。首先，我们的商业模式表现非常出色。我们又度过了一个稳健的盈利季度，每股收益为 3.49 美元，即使我们继续在市场营销和技术上进行大量投资。今年的支出环境一直保持稳定，收入增长符合我们的预期，年初至今的外汇调整增长为 10%。我们继续为特许经营增加更多客户。交易参与度正在加深，我们受益于多样化的客户类型、收入来源和地域分布。
In addition, as Steve discussed, our focus on continuously refreshing products is resulting in an acceleration in our card fees revenue, which grew by 18% this quarter. And our focus on premium products continues to be the foundation of our very strong credit performance. We continue to manage our expense base with discipline. Year-to-date, excluding the gain from our Accertify, operating expenses have grown very modestly as we fully leverage the scale and the digitization of our operations. This business model is yielding very strong earnings, which is enabling us to increase investments to grow the franchise and also to return excess capital to our shareholders.
此外，正如史蒂夫所讨论的，我们对产品的持续更新关注导致了本季度卡费收入加速增长，增长了 18%。我们对高端产品的关注继续成为我们非常强劲的信用表现的基础。我们继续以纪律性管理我们的费用基础。截至今年，除去 Accertify 的收益，我们的运营费用增长非常温和，因为我们充分利用了运营规模和数字化。这种商业模式带来了非常强劲的收益，使我们能够增加投资以发展业务，并将多余的资本返还给我们的股东。
Compared to last year, we reduced the number of shares outstanding by $24 million. Turning now to our Q3 spend performance on Slide 3. Build business grew 6% on an FX adjusted basis, continuing the trend of stable volume growth that we've been seeing over the past several quarters. And while T&E growth rates are now more in-line with what we're seeing on goods and services spending, the picture hasn't changed very much since last quarter. Our customers continue to deepen their engagement with their American Express card as the number of transactions was up 9% in Q3. This is a function of growth in the number of customers and merchants, as well as growth in the number of transactions per customer. For instance, transactions per customer are up around 30% from five years ago.
与去年相比，我们将流通股数量减少了2400万股。现在来看第三季度的支出表现，请看幻灯片3。业务增长在外汇调整基础上增长了6%，延续了过去几个季度稳定的交易量增长趋势。虽然差旅和娱乐（T&E）增长率现在更符合我们在商品和服务支出上看到的趋势，但自上季度以来整体情况没有太大变化。我们的客户与其美国运通卡的互动持续加深，第三季度的交易数量增加了9%。这是客户和商户数量增长以及每位客户交易量增加的结果。例如，与五年前相比，每位客户的交易量增长了约30%。
As you look at the spend trends by segment over the next few slides I want to highlight a few key points to take away. Spend across our [affluent] (ph) US consumer base continued to be very stable with strong growth from Millennial and Gen-Z customers, up 12%. Notably, we continue to see very strong loyalty with this younger cohort with new customer retention higher than that of older generations.
在接下来的几张幻灯片中查看各细分市场的支出趋势时，我想强调几个要点。我们[富裕] (ph) 的美国消费者群体的支出继续保持非常稳定，千禧一代和 Z 世代客户的增长强劲，增长了 12%。值得注意的是，我们继续在这一年轻群体中看到非常强的忠诚度，新客户的保留率高于老一代。
Within Commercial Services, spend growth was up modestly and consistent with what we've seen over the past few quarters. Our fastest growing segment again this quarter is international card services with spend growth of 13%. The breadth of this continued performance is especially worth noting every one of our top -- five top markets is growing in double digits with four out of the five in mid-to-high teens. For example, Japan is up 17% and Mexico 15%, on an FX adjusted basis. We also see strong engagement from Millennial and Gen-Z customers in international with the age cohort growing 23% FX adjusted in Q3.
在商业服务中，支出增长略有上升，与过去几个季度的情况一致。本季度增长最快的细分市场仍然是国际卡服务，支出增长为 13%。这种持续表现的广度尤其值得注意，我们的五大市场中的每一个都在以两位数增长，其中四个市场的增长率在中到高的十几位。例如，日本增长了 17%，墨西哥增长了 15%，这是在汇率调整后的数据。我们还看到国际市场中千禧一代和 Z 世代客户的强劲参与，这一年龄群体在第三季度的汇率调整后增长了 23%。
Let me now turn to lending and credit performance on Slide 7 through 9. Total loans and card member receivables growth was strong at 10% year-over-year and continued to moderate as expected. Loan growth was 15% this quarter, consistent with Q2. Our enhanced lending capabilities such as pay overtime continue to be the largest contributor to our loan growth. In addition, over 70% of revolving loan growth continues to be driven by tenured customers.
现在让我转到第 7 到 9 页的贷款和信贷表现。总贷款和信用卡会员应收账款同比增长强劲，达到 10%，并继续按预期放缓。本季度贷款增长为 15%，与第二季度一致。我们增强的贷款能力，如分期付款，继续是我们贷款增长的最大贡献者。此外，超过 70%的循环贷款增长仍由资深客户推动。
Looking ahead, we continue to see a long runway for growth as we expand our share of lend with our Premium Card members. While revolve rates have largely built back since the pandemic, we expect to see continued upward momentum over time, as we meet more of our customers' borrowing needs on our premium products and grow our charge in co-brand portfolios.
展望未来，随着我们扩大在高端卡会员中的借贷份额，我们继续看到广阔的增长前景。尽管自疫情以来循环利率已大幅回升，但我们预计随着时间的推移会继续保持上升势头，因为我们在高端产品上满足更多客户的借贷需求，并在联名品牌组合中增加我们的收费。
Our focus on growing lending through our premium customer base also continues to pay off in the strength of our credit performance. Delinquency rates remain very low and in-line with our prior quarters, especially taking into account the seasonal downtick we saw in Q2 and write-off rates declined to 1.9% this quarter. Looking forward, I still expect modest upward buyers to these rates, as we continue to acquire new customers at elevated levels and increase our share of lending from existing customers. This quarter, we had about $1.4 billion of provision expense. This includes a reserve bill of $264 million which was predominantly driven by loan volume growth. The reserve rate was 2.9% consistent with recent quarters.
我们专注于通过高端客户群增长贷款，这一策略继续带来强劲的信用表现。拖欠率仍然非常低，并与之前的季度保持一致，特别是在考虑到我们在第二季度看到的季节性下降时，本季度的核销率下降至1.9%。展望未来，随着我们继续以较高的水平吸引新客户，并增加现有客户的贷款份额，我预计这些比率会有小幅上升。本季度，我们的拨备费用约为14亿美元，其中包括2.64亿美元的储备金增加，主要受到贷款量增长的推动。储备率为2.9%，与最近几个季度一致。
Taking a step back, this best-in-class credit metrics are a reflection of our strategy. Our product value propositions create a powerful positive selection effect, which carries through to better credit performance. Our risk management strategies and capabilities widen the margin of safety and ensure profitable growth.
退一步说，这一流的信用指标反映了我们的战略。我们的产品价值主张创造了强大的正向选择效应，从而带来更好的信用表现。我们的风险管理策略和能力扩大了安全边际，并确保盈利增长。
Focusing next on revenues, starting on Slide 10. As I noted earlier, we grew total revenues net of interest by 8%. Discount revenue our largest revenue line grew 4% versus last year and is driven by the spend trends I discussed earlier. Net card fees increased 18% on an FX adjusted basis, accelerating 2 points sequentially, driven in part by the product refreshes. And we continue to see strong demand for our products as we bring new customers into the franchise with new cards acquired of $3.3 million in the quarter.
接下来关注收入情况，请看幻灯片10。如前所述，我们的总收入（扣除利息后）增长了8%。折扣收入是我们最大的收入来源，同比增长4%，这得益于我之前提到的消费趋势。净卡费在外汇调整基础上增长了18%，环比加速了2个百分点，部分原因是产品更新的推动。随着我们将新客户带入我们的体系，本季度新增了330万张新卡，我们的产品需求依然强劲。
Our strong acquisition and retention levels, along with our ongoing cycle of refreshing products continue to drive sustainable growth in card fee revenue. This strong growth represents a real proof-point of the success of our strategy and the continued engagement of our customers. Turning to our lending economics on Slide 14. Net interest grew 17%. Net interest income grew 17% on an FX adjusted basis and continues to moderate as we previously communicated. Growth in this line is driven by increases in revolving loan balances and net yield versus the prior year.
我们强劲的客户获取和保留水平，以及产品的持续更新周期，继续推动卡费收入的可持续增长。这一强劲增长是真实验证了我们战略的成功以及客户持续参与的成果。请看幻灯片14中的贷款经济状况。净利息收入增长了17%。在外汇调整基础上，净利息收入增长了17%，并如我们之前所提，增长有所放缓。这一项增长的驱动因素是循环贷款余额和净收益率的同比增加。
I will turn now to our expense performance on Slide 15. Our VCE to revenue ratio remained stable at 41% this quarter with variable customer engagement expenses up 10% versus last year. Looking at some of the components of VCE, rewards expense this quarter grew 10% outpacing spend growth. We are continuously evolving the MR value proposition to increase the ease of redemption for our card members and also to maintain the economics of the program.
现在我将转到第 15 页的费用表现。本季度我们的 VCE 与收入比率保持在 41%的稳定水平，可变客户参与费用比去年增长了 10%。查看 VCE 的一些组成部分，本季度的奖励费用增长了 10%，超过了支出增长。我们正在不断发展 MR 价值主张，以提高持卡会员兑换的便利性，同时也保持计划的经济性。
In the short-term, those changes drive a very small increase in the ultimate rate of redemption but over time, we are confident in the economics with minimal impact to the VCE ratio. And we continue to invest in our card member benefits to deliver superior experiences for our customers. For example, this year, we've added over [three-entry] (ph) new hotels to the hotel collection program, one of the benefits on the Gold Card, and we see that year-to-date bookings on the program are 6 times higher than five years ago.
在短期内，这些变化对最终的兑换率仅有很小的提升，但从长期来看，我们对其经济效益充满信心，对VCE（可变报酬费用）比率的影响微乎其微。我们还在持续投资于持卡会员福利，以提供卓越的客户体验。例如，今年我们在金卡的酒店精选计划中新增了三百多家酒店，而截至目前，该计划的预订量比五年前高出6倍。
Marketing expense was $1.5 billion, in-line with our run rate so far this year as we continue to invest at elevated levels versus last year. As I mentioned last quarter, we expect our full year marketing spend for 2024 to be around $6 billion, as we lean into the attractive growth opportunities available to us.
营销费用为15亿美元，与今年迄今的运行水平一致，表明我们继续以高于去年的水平进行投资。正如我在上个季度提到的，我们预计2024年全年的营销支出将约为60亿美元，以抓住我们所拥有的有吸引力的增长机会。
Lastly operating expenses of about $3.8 billion were up 5% versus last year. There is some seasonality to operating expense levels, and we expect to see a slight uptick in Q4, consistent with prior year's trend. On a full year basis, we continue to expect operating expenses to remain fairly flat year-over-year, adjusting for the Accertify gain. Taking a step back, total expenses year-to-date are up about 5% relative to 10% growth in FX adjusted revenue. This is a reflection of our ability to invest at elevated levels and drive strong expense leverage.
最后，运营费用约为 38 亿美元，同比增长 5%。运营费用水平存在一定的季节性，我们预计第四季度会有小幅上升，与去年的趋势一致。全年而言，我们继续预计运营费用在调整 Accertify 收益后将保持相对平稳。回顾一下，截至目前的总费用同比增长约 5%，而外汇调整后的收入增长为 10%。这反映了我们在较高水平上进行投资并推动强劲费用杠杆的能力。
Let me now move to capital on Slide 16. Our CET1 ratio was 10.7%, well within our 10% to 11% range, and we returned $2.4 billion in capital to our shareholders. This is the highest return included -- sorry, this capital return included $1.9 billion of share repurchases, the highest level in the past two years and $0.5 billion in dividends.
现在让我转到第 16 页的资本部分。我们的 CET1 比率为 10.7%，完全在我们 10%到 11%的范围内，我们向股东返还了 24 亿美元的资本。这是最高的回报——抱歉，这次资本回报包括 19 亿美元的股票回购，这是过去两年中的最高水平，以及 5 亿美元的股息。
Also, we continue to have a very robust and diverse funding stack at our disposal. Our high-yield savings balances grew by 19% year-over-year this quarter. Notably, over 75% of balances come from existing card members, though less than 10% of our US consumer customers have a high-yield savings account with us.
此外，我们继续拥有非常强大和多样化的资金来源。本季度，我们的高收益储蓄余额同比增长了 19%。值得注意的是，超过 75%的余额来自现有的持卡会员，尽管我们不到 10%的美国消费者客户拥有我们的高收益储蓄账户。
This brings me to our 2024 guidance. For the full year, we expect revenue growth of around 9% within the revenue guidance range we provided at the beginning of the year. We are also raising our full year EPS guidance to $13.75 to $14.05, reflecting both the momentum and the earnings power of our business. This represents 23% to 25% year-over-year growth. It is higher than we expected at the start of the year and above our long-term aspiration of mid-teens growth.
这让我谈到我们 2024 年的指导。全年，我们预计收入增长约 9%，在我们年初提供的收入指导范围内。我们还将全年每股收益指导提高到 13.75 美元至 14.05 美元，反映了我们业务的势头和盈利能力。这代表着同比增长 23%至 25%。这高于我们年初的预期，也高于我们长期中等增长的目标。
With that, I will now turn the call back over to Kartik, and we will take your questions.
因此，我现在将电话交还给 Kartik，我们将回答您的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
A - Kartik Ramachandran A - 卡尔蒂克·拉马钱德兰
Thank you, Christophe. Before we open up the lines for Q&A, I will ask those in the queue to please limit yourself to just one question. Thank you for your cooperation. And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions. Operator?
谢谢，克里斯托夫。在我们开始问答环节之前，我请排队的各位请限制自己只提一个问题。感谢您的合作。现在，接线员将开放提问线路。接线员？
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Sanjay Sakhrani of KBW. Please go ahead.
[操作员说明] 我们的第一个问题来自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。请继续。
Sanjay Sakhrani 桑杰·萨克拉尼
Thank you. Good morning. I appreciate the solid results in what clearly is a softer spending backdrop. I guess I'm just thinking about the updated guidance. And as we think about that 10% plus revenue expectation in the future, I mean is that possible in the current spending backdrop? Next year, as I think about it, NII will be slower, card fees obviously, should be stronger, but does bill business have to accelerate to get to double digits? Or is there another way? Thanks.
谢谢。早上好。我很欣赏在明显较弱的支出背景下取得的稳固成果。我想我只是在考虑更新后的指导方针。当我们考虑未来 10%以上的收入预期时，我的意思是，在当前的支出背景下，这是否可能？明年，我认为净利息收入会放缓，卡费显然会更强，但账单业务是否必须加速才能达到两位数？还是有其他方法？谢谢。
Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬·斯奎里
Thanks, Sanjay. Look, I think that the bill business definitely has to accelerate to get to our aspirational goal of 10% revenue growth. When you think about the three legs of the stool that we have to grow our revenues, I think we absolutely have the right balance, the balance of spending NII and card fees and card fees continue to grow at accelerated rates. It is 25 straight quarters now of double-digit. We had 18% this quarter. NII continues to chug along, but I don't think anybody wants to see us really accelerate too much from there.
谢谢，Sanjay。看，我认为账单业务绝对需要加速，以实现我们 10%收入增长的理想目标。当你考虑到我们必须增长收入的三大支柱时，我认为我们绝对有正确的平衡，支出 NII 和卡费的平衡，并且卡费继续以加速的速度增长。现在已经连续 25 个季度实现两位数增长。我们这个季度有 18%。NII 继续稳步前进，但我认为没有人希望看到我们从那里真正加速太多。
很多企业总想着降低价格以获得竞争力，普遍到降价才是商业的正常形态，比如，Charles Schwab，AMEX的做法正相反，这是巴菲特真正欣赏的点。
And I think that as we think about our overall aspiration, that aspiration was set in a more robust environment. And so for us to hit that 10%, we would need to have an acceleration in building, certainly an acceleration from 6%. Having said that, and I said this about a year ago at the Goldman Sachs conference, we have driven the scale of this business at this point to such a place that even with a softer, albeit consistently, it is been consistently soft for the last -- pretty much for the last year, if you go back our billings overall for pretty much the last year other than the second quarter when we had the extra day, have been about 6% overall. But yet, we are able to deliver on our mid-teens EPS growth. And I think that's what our focus is really on. And so as the economy gets stronger, when that is I don't know, but I think it is absolutely the right aspiration for us as a company to strive for 10% revenue growth, but we will need an acceleration in billings.
我认为，当我们考虑我们的整体目标时，这一目标是在一个更为强劲的环境下设定的。要达到10%的增长，我们确实需要在营收上加速，当然，需要超越目前的6%。话虽如此，我大约一年前在高盛会议上提到，我们目前已经将业务规模发展到一个即便在较为疲软的环境下（尽管过去一年基本上都持续疲软），也能持续运作的水平。如果回顾一下，过去一年我们的账单增长率基本上都在6%左右，除了第二季度因多出一天略有提升。但我们仍然能够实现中双位数的每股收益增长，而这才是我们的真正关注点。所以，随着经济的加强（时间我无法确定），我认为10%的收入增长是我们作为公司应当努力实现的正确目标，但这确实需要账单收入的加速增长。
账单没怎么增长，卡费高速增长，为用户创造价值的能力大于规模扩张的能力。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question is coming from Ryan Nash of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自高盛的瑞安·纳什。请继续。
Ryan Nash 瑞安·纳什
Hi, good morning guys. Steve, thank you for the branding of our conference on the prior response. So maybe just a follow-up on Sanjay's question. When you think about the three legs to the stool, if we don't see an acceleration in billings growth, can you maybe just talk about the drivers of EPS growth into 2025? Can you continue to sustain the mid-teens growth even in the face of a challenging -- of a slower than aspirational revenue growth environment? Thank you.
嗨，早上好，大家。史蒂夫，感谢你在之前的回复中为我们的会议做的品牌推广。那么，关于桑杰的问题，我想再跟进一下。当你考虑到三条腿的支撑，如果我们没有看到账单增长的加速，你能否谈谈 2025 年 EPS 增长的驱动因素？即使在面临比预期收入增长更慢的挑战性环境中，你能否继续维持中双位数的增长？谢谢。
Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬·斯奎里
I mean, just -- if you look at this year, as I just said, we've had billings growth of pretty much 6% for almost a year now. And so I'll just go back to my comments that I just made to Sanjay. I think at the level of that 6% overall billings growth and we continue to acquire cards, and we continue to upgrade card members, and we continue to grow NII where we are. Yes, I think EPS growth in the range -- in our mid-teens range is absolutely something that should be expected from us.
我的意思是，只要看看今年，正如我刚才所说，我们的账单增长几乎已经持续了一年达到 6%。所以我会回到我刚才对 Sanjay 的评论。我认为在整体账单增长 6%的水平上，我们继续获取卡片，继续升级持卡会员，并继续在我们所在的地方增长净利息收入。是的，我认为我们的每股收益增长在中双位数范围内绝对是可以预期的。
The other thing that I would say is that while we are not -- if you look at this year, we've acquired 3.4 million cards in the first quarter and 3.3 million cards in the second quarter and 3.3 million cards in the third quarter. And that's all about really the future for us. And as the economy gets stronger, these are cohorts and most of these people that we're acquiring are Millennials and Gen-Z. These are cohorts that will continue to grow with us. That we'll see an uptick in organic spending over time. That will wind up being upgraded from a green to a gold to gold to a platinum and so forth. And so once again, I think that we are really laying the foundation with the investments that we're making for strong growth going forward.
另外，我想说的是，虽然我们不是——如果你看看今年，我们在第一季度获得了 340 万张卡，第二季度获得了 330 万张卡，第三季度获得了 330 万张卡。这一切都关乎我们的未来。随着经济的增强，这些是我们正在获取的群体，其中大多数是千禧一代和 Z 世代。这些群体将继续与我们一起成长。我们会看到有机消费随着时间的推移而增加。这将最终从绿色升级到金色，从金色到白金等等。因此，我再次认为，我们正在通过所做的投资为未来的强劲增长奠定基础。
Christophe Le Caillec 克里斯托夫·勒·卡耶克
Maybe I will just add one point. This year indeed, is a good reference, right? And we are going to grow EPS north of the mid-teens, even when you control for the Accertify gain. And that's after increasing the marketing investments year-over-year by as much as $800 million, right? And so that speaks about the power of generating mid-teens EPS growth despite a 6% billing growth.
也许我只想补充一点。今年确实是一个很好的参考，对吧？即使在控制了 Accertify 收益的情况下，我们的每股收益（EPS）也将增长到中两位数以上。而这是在每年增加多达 8 亿美元的营销投资之后，对吧？这说明了尽管账单增长只有 6%，但仍能实现中两位数 EPS 增长的能力。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question is coming from Craig Maurer of FT Partners. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 FT Partners 的 Craig Maurer。请继续。
Craig Maurer 克雷格·毛雷尔
Hi, good morning. Thanks. I wanted to ask about business development spend came in well below what consensus was expecting. And I was curious what is happening there, whether it was a short-term phenomenon or something more long-term? And just second, was there any impact from weather in the guide for the rest of the year? Thanks.
嗨，早上好。谢谢。我想问一下，业务发展支出远低于市场预期。我很好奇那里发生了什么，是短期现象还是更长期的情况？其次，全年指引中是否有受到天气影响？谢谢。
Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬·斯奎里
Let me -- I'll answer the second question, and Christophe will answer the first one. No, there was no impact at all from weather in the guide at all.
让我来——我会回答第二个问题，克里斯托夫会回答第一个问题。不，天气对指南完全没有影响。
Christophe Le Caillec 克里斯托夫·勒·卡耶克
Yes. And on their business or partner payments line and business development, a lot of those expenses are about the agreements that we have with customers and co-brand partners in terms of sharing the economics of the co-brands. And specifically, in terms of this quarter the reason why that number is not growing as much as maybe you were expecting is because -- on the small -- on the corporate side, we also have agreements in terms of incentives that we pay back to our customers. And since the billing is coming at a lower level. So are those incentives that we pay back to their customers.
是的。在他们的业务或合作伙伴支付线和业务发展方面，很多这些费用是关于我们与客户和联合品牌合作伙伴之间的协议，涉及联合品牌经济利益的分享。具体来说，本季度这个数字没有像您预期的那样增长的原因是因为——在小型企业和企业方面，我们也有关于我们返还给客户的激励措施的协议。由于账单处于较低水平，因此我们返还给客户的激励措施也是如此。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question is coming from Rick Shane of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。请继续。
Richard Shane 理查德·谢恩
Thanks for taking my question this morning. Look, as we move into the fourth quarter, the setup is that earnings will be way above initial guidance and even above the second quarter increase and revenues are gravitating towards the low-end of your range, that suggests credit and operating leverage are better than you expected. You've talked about the ramp in marketing the incremental $800 million. Historically, when earnings setup is this strong, you really pull forward investments planting seeds for long-term revenue growth, I'm curious this year why you're letting so much fall to the bottom-line? Are you starting as you ramp up that $800 million incremental? Are you starting to see the marginal return on those investments diminish in a way that it is no longer attractive?
感谢您今天上午回答我的问题。随着我们进入第四季度，情况是收益将远高于最初的指引，甚至高于第二季度的增幅，而收入则趋向于您预期范围的低端，这表明信贷和运营杠杆比预期更好。您提到了营销费用的增加，即额外的8亿美元。历史上，当收益预期如此强劲时，您通常会提前进行投资，为长期收入增长播下种子。我很好奇，为什么今年会让这么多收益直接转化为底线？在逐步增加这8亿美元的投入时，您是否开始注意到这些投资的边际回报有所下降，以至于不再具吸引力？
Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬·斯奎里
No, I don't think we are seeing the marginal return. I think it is a matter of ramping. It is just ramping up to the level that we are. I mean, when you think about how much we are spending on a relative basis at 1.5 -- almost $1.5 billion, $1.6 billion in marketing, we're stepping up that marketing almost $800 million. We've also stepped up technology spend. We've invested -- we're investing more in control management as we move from a Category 4 bank to a Category 3 bank.
不，我不认为我们看到了边际回报。我认为这只是一个逐步提升的问题。我的意思是，当你考虑到我们在相对基础上花费了多少时，几乎是 15 亿美元，16 亿美元在营销上，我们将营销费用提高了近 8 亿美元。我们也增加了技术支出。随着我们从四类银行转变为三类银行，我们在控制管理方面投入了更多资金。
And so we are not walking away from any investments in -- it's -- but we are also not -- what we're also not doing is we're not lowering our standards in any way either. So no, I think that we've ramped up our investments all year long. It is just really hard to then just jam a bunch more investment into next year. Having said that, we expect that we will grow our investment levels from here as we move into 2025. I would not expect a pullback in marketing because as we start to look at next year, we are looking for more efficiencies, obviously, in our marketing spend.
因此，我们并没有放弃任何投资——但我们也没有降低我们的标准。所以，我认为我们整年都在加大投资力度。然后在明年再增加大量投资确实很困难。话虽如此，我们预计随着进入 2025 年，我们的投资水平将从这里增长。我不认为会在营销上有所回撤，因为当我们开始展望明年时，我们显然在寻找更多的营销支出效率。
But additionally, we are looking to invest more in marketing as we move into next year and more in technology and so forth. So when you think about the business, from a quarter-to-quarter basis, yes, it is easy to have that -- the assumption that you have. When you think about the business on a continuum, you have to layer in your investments over time. So it's not as easy just to pull sort of investments in from the first quarter of next year into the fourth quarter of this year.
但除此之外，随着我们进入明年，我们还希望在市场营销和技术等方面投入更多。因此，当你从季度到季度的角度考虑业务时，是的，你很容易有这样的假设。当你从连续性的角度考虑业务时，你必须随着时间的推移逐步进行投资。因此，将明年第一季度的投资转移到今年第四季度并不是那么容易。
Years ago, we could do that because our investment levels were probably half of where they are today. And so as you get to that to that level that we are today, it is easier to go on a continuum in the way we are going as opposed to, hey look, there is an opportunity, let’s pull it – let’s just pull it forward. So we feel good about the investment opportunities over the next – over the medium to long range, and we’ll continue to invest in the business.
多年前，我们可以这样做，因为那时的投资水平可能只是今天的一半。因此，随着我们达到如今的规模，按照我们现在的方式逐步推进要更容易，而不是因为看到机会就立即提前投入。因此，我们对未来中长期的投资机会感到乐观，并将继续在业务中进行投资。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question is coming from Erika Najarian of UBS. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自瑞银的 Erika Najarian。请继续。
Erika Najarian 埃里卡·纳贾里安
Hi, good morning. When I look at the supplement, it does seem like spend on a per member basis has been a little bit flatter than overall spend growth, 2% versus 6%. And clearly, that's a result of your success in adding so many new customers. If we don't get the rebound in spend growth next year, and obviously everyone is trying to figure out whether we are going to have the soft landing or not soft landing, how much runway do you feel you have to continue to add new customers to keep the spend growth at the current level? And maybe as a compound question to that, maybe give us some color on where we are on the product refresh cycle?
嗨，早上好。查看补充材料时，确实感觉每位会员的支出增长比整体支出增长要平缓一些，2%对比 6%。显然，这是因为你们在增加新客户方面取得了成功。如果明年支出增长没有反弹，显然每个人都在试图弄清楚我们是否会实现软着陆或非软着陆，你觉得还有多少空间可以继续增加新客户以保持当前的支出增长水平？作为这个问题的一个复合问题，能否给我们一些关于产品更新周期的情况？
Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬·斯奎里
Yes. So let me answer the second part and then go to the first. I think on the product refresh cycle, we've already surpassed -- we're at our 40 that we had committed to at the beginning of the year. And there will be some more refreshes that will be done over the rest of this year. And we will continue refreshing on next year.
是的。那么让我先回答第二部分，然后再回答第一部分。我认为在产品更新周期方面，我们已经超越了——我们已经达到了年初承诺的 40 个。今年剩余时间还会有一些更新。我们将在明年继续进行更新。
I will let Christophe comment a little bit, but I will just give you a couple of other points as it relates to your first question. We still see line of sight as we move into next year to acquire more card holders. I think when you look at the overall spending, organic spending in our customer base is not as robust, as it was in a more robust environment. And that's what our card holders do. What our card holders will do is pull back slightly if they lose any confidence, see any sort of signs of their own stress but they will continue to pay their bills, and that's why our credit numbers are so good.
我会让克里斯托夫稍作评论，但我会先就你的第一个问题给出几点补充。我们仍然看到在明年可以获得更多持卡人的机会。我认为，当你观察整体消费时，我们客户群的自然消费并不像在更强劲的环境中那样强劲。这就是我们的持卡人所做的。如果他们失去信心，看到任何压力的迹象，他们会稍微收缩消费，但他们会继续支付账单，这就是为什么我们的信用数据如此良好的原因。
I think when you look at the organic piece of this, you see this especially within our small business. Our small business has been hit from a macro perspective. I think just like a lot of other companies, small business and at the organic spend or the same-store sales spend that is occurring on the card in small businesses is certainly not as robust as it was coming out of the pandemic. In fact, it is negative because when you look at our small business, our acquisition is good and our retention is really good. It is that organic spend that's down. And so that organic spend leads to a slight depression in spend per card member.
我认为，当你看这个有机部分时，尤其是在我们的小型企业中可以看到这一点。我们的小型企业从宏观角度受到了冲击。我认为就像许多其他公司一样，小型企业以及在小型企业卡上发生的有机支出或同店销售支出肯定没有疫情后那么强劲。事实上，它是负面的，因为当你看我们的小型企业时，我们的客户获取情况良好，客户保留率也非常好。正是有机支出下降了。因此，这种有机支出导致每位持卡会员的支出略有下降。
Christophe Le Caillec 克里斯托夫·勒·卡耶克
And so to add up to the other part of your question, the metrics you are looking at is an average is a global average. So that adds up customers in Australia and Japan, as well in the US. So it's hard to read a lot of insights out of that metric. So to give you a bit more color on how to think about those new card members that are joining the franchise, we do see that they are more engaged than the past vintages, if you want. When we look at the number of transaction per new card member that number is trending up.
因此，补充回答您问题的另一部分，您所查看的指标是一个全球平均值。因此，这包括了澳大利亚、日本以及美国的客户。因此，很难从该指标中读出很多见解。为了让您更好地理解那些加入特许经营的新卡会员，我们确实看到他们比过去的批次更活跃。如果您愿意的话，当我们查看每位新卡会员的交易次数时，这个数字正在上升。
And in my prepared remarks, I cited the metric of 30% more transaction per new card member now than five years ago, and we see that, right? And this is a function of better coverage, not only in the US, but also outside of the US. And we stick to the premiumness of our acquisition. Not only we grew the number of card members, as you pointed out, but we are maintaining the fact that about 60% of them are coming up on our fee-paying products. So they are very engaged.
在我准备的讲话中，我提到了现在每位新会员的交易量比五年前多 30%的指标，对吧？这不仅是美国国内覆盖率提高的结果，也是美国以外地区的结果。我们坚持我们的高端客户获取策略。正如你所指出的，我们不仅增加了会员数量，而且我们保持了大约 60%的会员使用我们的付费产品。因此，他们的参与度非常高。
And so each vintage, if you want is definitely showing progress, and what's impacting this average are the things that Steve talked about and that the tenured card members and what we call the organic spend that is a little bit more challenged.
因此，每个年份，如果你愿意的话，确实显示出进步，而影响这一平均值的是史蒂夫所谈到的事情，以及资深卡会员和我们所称的有机消费，这些方面有些挑战。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question is coming from Don Fandetti of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自富国银行的 Don Fandetti。请继续。
Donald Fandetti 唐纳德·范德蒂
Steve the general consensus, pretty much among everyone, is at the affluent US consumer is in good shape. I just wanted to get your sense if you are seeing anything in your data bookings that would raise concern around the sustainability of that, you've got an election coming up and things of that nature?
史蒂夫，总体共识几乎是所有人都认为富裕的美国消费者状况良好。我只是想了解一下您是否在数据预订中看到任何可能引发对其可持续性担忧的情况，您有即将到来的选举和类似的事情吗？
Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬·斯奎里
No. I mean, look this company has been around a long time. I mean, obviously, we didn't have cards 174 years ago. But we've been around lots of different elections, lots of different configurations of the House, the Senate and so forth. Our customer base is very different than our competitors' customer base. And it's really resilient and pretty stable. I think that they are continuing to spend, albeit at not levels that we saw coming out of the pandemic.
不。我是说，这家公司已经存在很长时间了。我的意思是，显然，我们在 174 年前没有卡片。但我们经历了许多不同的选举，众议院、参议院等的许多不同配置。我们的客户群与竞争对手的客户群非常不同。它真的很有韧性，而且相当稳定。我认为他们仍在继续消费，尽管没有达到我们在疫情后看到的水平。
But the US consumer, just to pick the US consumer has been really stable. I mean, it's been just about 6% for the last few quarters. And if you look at the international consumer and a lot of people forget, we do have the international side of our business, international consumer business has been growing 13% for the last four quarters as well. So we are not seeing anything that would indicate that spending would go down. And we are not seeing anything that would indicate our credit metrics are getting any worse.
但是美国消费者，仅仅是挑选美国消费者，一直非常稳定。我的意思是，过去几个季度大约是 6%。如果你看看国际消费者，很多人忘记了，我们确实有国际业务，国际消费者业务在过去四个季度也增长了 13%。所以我们没有看到任何迹象表明支出会下降。我们也没有看到任何迹象表明我们的信用指标在变差。
In fact, you saw write-offs go sequentially down. And so we feel good about the consumer. We would like to see more organic spend. And I think to go back to the beginning, when Sanjay opens us up with that question, I think an uptick in that organic spend will help us reach our overall aspiration of 10%. But that's why our aspiration of 10% is in fact an aspiration, and I think still the right aspiration for this company because we do expect organic to come back. Organic will not stay at this level forever. When that comes back, I don't know. But regardless, and as we've proven this year, we're able to still deliver that mid-teens EPS growth.
事实上，你看到注销逐步减少。因此，我们对消费者感到满意。我们希望看到更多的有机支出。我认为回到开始时，当 Sanjay 用那个问题开启我们时，我认为有机支出的增加将帮助我们实现 10%的整体目标。但这就是为什么我们 10%的目标实际上是一个愿望，我认为这仍然是这个公司的正确目标，因为我们确实预计有机支出会回升。有机支出不会永远保持在这个水平。什么时候回升，我不知道。但无论如何，正如我们今年所证明的那样，我们仍然能够实现中双位数的每股收益增长。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question is coming from Jeff Adelson of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的杰夫·阿德尔森。请继续。
Jeffrey Adelson 杰弗里·阿德尔森
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I guess just if we look at the approximately 9% revenue growth for the year, as you sit here only 18 days in the quarter, does that suggest that you are maybe looking for a little bit of revenue growth reacceleration in the fourth quarter here? Or how are you thinking about that 9% for the year? Could it maybe slip a little bit below that? And when we look at the discount revenue growth, it did go under the bill business growth a little bit this quarter, I think the implied discount rate did drop a little bit. Is there any noise in there? Or is there something we should be aware of there?
嗨，早上好。感谢您回答我的问题。我想如果我们看看全年大约 9%的收入增长，因为您在这个季度只过了 18 天，这是否意味着您可能在这里期待第四季度的收入增长重新加速？或者您是如何看待全年的 9%的？它可能会稍微低于这个数字吗？当我们看折扣收入增长时，我认为这个季度确实略低于账单业务增长，隐含的折扣率确实略有下降。这里面有什么噪音吗？或者有什么我们应该注意的地方吗？
Christophe Le Caillec 克里斯托夫·勒·卡耶克
So I'll take the second part of your question first in terms of how to think about the discount revenue versus the bill business. As Steve just mentioned, international is growing at a faster clip than the US. And as you probably know, the discount rate in international is lower than in the US. So that creates a little bit of a disconnect between the growth you see in discount revenue and on bill business globally.
因此，我将首先回答您问题的第二部分，即如何看待折扣收入与账单业务之间的关系。正如史蒂夫刚才提到的，国际市场的增长速度快于美国。而且您可能知道，国际市场的折扣率低于美国。因此，这在全球范围内的折扣收入增长和账单业务之间造成了一些不一致。
As far as the first part of your question in terms of how to think about revenue growth and how to think about Q4, the best way to -- the key word that we've been using this morning is stability. We see stability in terms of billings, in terms of the trends and no inflection points. So as you said, we are only like a few weeks into Q4, but my projection for Q4 is to be a continuation of a lot of these trends. So Q3 is a good proxy for what to expect about Q4, and that's why we are guiding towards 9% revenue growth.
关于你问题的第一部分，即如何看待收入增长和如何看待第四季度，我们今天早上一直在使用的关键词是稳定性。我们在账单、趋势方面看到稳定性，没有拐点。正如你所说，我们才进入第四季度几周，但我对第四季度的预测是这些趋势的延续。因此，第三季度是对第四季度预期的一个很好的参考，这就是为什么我们指导 9%的收入增长。
I want to point out though, that the EPS in terms of the full year performance is also really north of what we guided towards at the beginning of the year, even when you adjust for certified. So we are generating a lot of earnings even with being at a 9% revenue growth, which still -- when I listen to peers, it compares really well to most of our peers.
不过我想指出的是，即使在调整认证影响后，全年每股收益（EPS）的表现也远超我们年初的指引。尽管我们的收入增长率为9%，但我们依然创造了大量收益，这在与同行相比时依然具有很强的竞争力。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question is coming from Chris Kennedy of William Blair. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自威廉·布莱尔的克里斯·肯尼迪。请继续。
Cristopher Kennedy 克里斯托弗·肯尼迪
Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Steve, you mentioned how customers generally move from Green Cards to Gold Cards to Platinum Cards. Is there any way to think about the lifetime value or average spend by category? Thank you.
早上好。感谢您提问。Steve，您提到客户通常从绿卡转到金卡再到白金卡。有没有办法考虑按类别划分的生命周期价值或平均消费？谢谢。
Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬·斯奎里
I think when you when you start to move up the food chain, you move up because you are going to -- for example, you are moving from -- if you are a Millennial for example, and you are on a Gold Card, you're probably not traveling as much, but you're dining out a lot and you may be just starting with the franchise. As you start to move along, you might have a little bit more discretionary income. You're traveling more, you're taking advantage of lounges, you're taking advantage of fine hotels and resorts and hotels. And so you will see higher spending on Platinum cards than you will on Gold Cards and on Green Cards because if you are going to pay a higher fee for a product, you are going to engage in that product more, you are going to use that product for what the benefits of those -- of that product, in fact is.
我认为，当你开始提升消费层次时，这通常是因为你逐步升级了自己的消费需求。比如，如果你是千禧一代，持有的是金卡，可能不经常旅行，但会经常外出就餐，可能刚刚开始接触我们的产品。当你逐步前进时，或许有了更多的可支配收入，旅行次数增加，开始享受机场贵宾室、优质酒店和度假村等福利。因此，你会发现白金卡的消费比金卡和绿卡更高，因为如果你支付了更高的年费，自然会更积极地使用该产品，享受该产品带来的各种福利。
So -- and when you think about it, the Platinum Card while it is morphing into much more of a lifestyle card overall still has heavy travel benefits to it. And to really take full advantage of that, you want to be traveling in -- airline tickets cost money and hotels cost money and so forth. So I think, as people do move along the continuum, you do have a higher lifetime value depending upon when you enter the franchise, right?
所以，当你考虑白金卡时，尽管它整体上正在逐渐转变为更偏生活方式的卡片，但它仍然包含大量的旅行福利。要充分利用这些福利，你需要有一定的旅行支出——机票、酒店等都是需要花费的。因此，我认为，当人们沿着这个消费路径前进时，其终身价值会更高，当然这也取决于他们进入我们的体系的时间点，对吧？
So if you enter the franchise at a Gold Card level and then ultimately upgrade to a Platinum, yes, you will have a higher lifetime value overall to us. If you enter as a Gen-X or a Boomer into the Platinum franchise, which we still acquire Gen-X's and Boomers, obviously you'll probably have a lower lifetime value than you would as a Millennial who ended in as a Gold card member. So it all depends on the entry point. But in general as they move up, we get more value out of them.
因此，如果你以金卡身份进入我们的体系，最终升级为白金卡，那么你的总体终身价值会更高。如果你是作为X世代或婴儿潮一代直接进入白金卡体系（我们当然还在吸引X世代和婴儿潮一代），那么你的终身价值可能会比以金卡身份进入的千禧一代略低。所以，一切取决于入会的起点。但总体而言，当他们逐步升级时，我们从他们身上获得的价值也会更高。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question is coming from Saul Martinez of HSBC. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自汇丰银行的 Saul Martinez。请继续。
Saul Martinez 索尔·马丁内斯
Hi, good morning. I wanted to ask about how to think about net interest income dynamics as we head into 2025 and just what the building blocks are? Steve, I think you mentioned that you don't want to accelerate too much from here. But if you could just -- Christophe, if you could just give us some of the building blocks in terms of how to think about NII in this rate environment, your liability-sensitive, deposit dynamics, revolve rates, balances and stuff like that? If you could just kind of help us think through how to think about the evolution as we head out into 2025?
嗨，早上好。我想问一下，随着我们进入 2025 年，如何看待净利息收入的动态，以及其构建模块是什么？史蒂夫，我想你提到过你不想从这里加速太多。但如果可以的话——克里斯托夫，如果你能给我们一些关于在这种利率环境下如何看待净利息收入的构建模块的信息，比如你的负债敏感性、存款动态、循环利率、余额等等？如果你能帮助我们思考一下随着我们进入 2025 年，如何看待其演变？
Christophe Le Caillec 克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
Yes. So the first thing maybe is to remind ourselves that we are slightly liability sensitive, but only very slightly. And the impact of Fed funds rate cuts on our NII is actually quite small. And we regularly update this sensitivity in our 10-Q, and you'll see later this afternoon, we updated those numbers as well. They're really small. And so maybe we can put this one out of the equation. The rest is a volume rate balance.
是的。首先需要提醒我们自己，我们的负债敏感性很低，只有非常轻微的影响。美联储基准利率的下调对我们的净利息收入（NII）的影响实际上相当小。我们会在10-Q报告中定期更新这一敏感性，今天下午稍晚些您会看到我们也更新了这些数据，影响确实很小。所以我们可以把这个因素排除在外。剩下的就是一个交易量和利率的平衡问题。
So from a volume standpoint, we have said that you should expect the volumes, the AR especially the revolving balances to moderate in terms of growth. And the dynamic, I mean, we're all familiar with that. During the pandemic people pay back their balances and have been rebuilding slowly their balances. And the revolve rates that we see now are starting to stabilize and moderate.
从交易量的角度来看，我们已经提到，你可以预期总体交易量，特别是循环余额（AR）的增长会有所放缓。这个动态我们都很熟悉。在疫情期间，人们偿还了余额，并逐渐恢复其余额。我们现在看到的循环利率开始趋于稳定并有所缓和。
So I think we are -- this – I’d say, this normalization is -- for the most part, is behind us. And so you expect now the growth rate to very much moderate. And from a yield standpoint, there are two things here, right? The first one is we are -- we keep shifting the funding of those balances towards high-yield savings accounts, which is the lowest funding cost for us. And so this creates a positive impact or positive effect on the yield.
所以我认为我们——这个——我会说，这种正常化在大多数情况下已经在我们身后。因此，您现在可以预期增长率会大大放缓。从收益率的角度来看，这里有两件事，对吧？第一，我们正在不断将这些余额的资金转向高收益储蓄账户，这是我们最低的资金成本。因此，这对收益率产生了积极的影响或正面的效果。
And on the interest income, we keep working in terms of making sure we have the right price points, we constantly compare our price as well against our peers, and we make sure that we are well-positioned there. And so we should expect the yield to benefit from this dynamic. But the way to think about it is moderation in terms of volume. We are going to maintain the strong yield that you see now and very, very limited impact from any change in the rate environment from a Fed fund rate standpoint.
关于利息收入，我们不断努力确保我们有合适的定价点，我们也不断将我们的价格与同行进行比较，并确保我们在这方面处于有利位置。因此，我们应该预期收益率会从这种动态中受益。但考虑这个问题的方式是从量的角度进行适度调整。我们将保持您现在看到的强劲收益率，并且从美联储基金利率的角度来看，利率环境的任何变化对我们的影响都非常有限。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question is coming from Terry Ma of Barclays. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自巴克莱的 Terry Ma。请继续。
Terry Ma 特里·马
Hi, thank you. Good morning. So your card acquisitions continue to run at a pretty healthy level and your net card fee growth this quarter has already exceeded the exit rate of last year. I guess are you running ahead of your expectations for some of these product refreshes in terms of adoption or engagement in general?
嗨，谢谢。早上好。您的卡片获取量继续保持在相当健康的水平，本季度的净卡费增长已经超过了去年的退出率。我想知道，您在某些产品更新的采用或参与方面是否超出了预期？
Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬·斯奎里
No, I think it is what we really expected from an adoption and engagement perspective. As I said, there'll be a few more product refreshes. This is where we pretty much expected the overall growth rate to be little bit -- obviously higher than when we entered the year because that's what happens, right? People get attracted -- I think -- get attracted to the products.
不，我认为这正是我们从采用和参与的角度真正预期的。正如我所说，会有更多的产品更新。这就是我们几乎预期整体增长率会略高的地方——显然比我们年初时要高，因为这就是会发生的，对吧？人们被吸引——我认为——被产品吸引。
I think one of the things that -- and we've said this before, but I think it is worth repeating, when you refresh the product, what it does, it creates more demand in the marketplace, and it helps your marketing dollars work even harder for you. And so when you look at how that category of revenue grows early on, those categories are from new card holders. Remember, we amortize that over a 12-month period and not everybody gets repriced all at once. So it does build in for us a ramping up effect of that overall category.
我认为其中一件事——我们之前也说过，但我认为值得重复的是，当你更新产品时，它会在市场上创造更多的需求，并帮助你的营销资金发挥更大的作用。因此，当你观察该类别的收入在早期如何增长时，这些类别来自新的持卡人。请记住，我们在 12 个月的时间内摊销这一点，并不是所有人都同时重新定价。因此，这为我们整体类别的增长效果奠定了基础。
So not only is it important to upgrade these products because it enables you to attract new card holders, but enables you to continue to engage with your existing card holders. But it does add to that, obviously, that overall subscription like and SaaS like revenues that card fee subscriptions are. And we are over $2 billion in this particular quarter. So we continue to focus on that because what we know is our fee-paying Card Members are our most engaged cardholders that we have because they – we want them to use the benefits and services.
因此，升级这些产品不仅重要，因为它使您能够吸引新的持卡人，还使您能够继续与现有持卡人互动。但显然，这也增加了卡费订阅所带来的整体订阅收入和类似 SaaS 的收入。在这个季度，我们的收入超过了 20 亿美元。因此，我们继续关注这一点，因为我们知道，支付费用的持卡会员是我们最活跃的持卡人，因为我们希望他们使用这些福利和服务。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question is coming from Mark DeVries of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自德意志银行的马克·德弗里斯。请继续。
Mark DeVries 马克·德弗里斯
Thank you. I have a related question to the impact of Fed easing on your business. Have you looked at kind of what the impact is from Fed easing and the effort to stimulate the economy on your bill business growth?
谢谢。我有一个关于美联储宽松政策对您业务影响的相关问题。您是否研究过美联储宽松政策以及刺激经济的努力对您的账单业务增长的影响？
Christophe Le Caillec 克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
So this is a good point. So at this point in time, the reduction is too small. It is too early to see any impact in terms of the spend patterns, and we looked into it but there is like nothing visible, as you would expect, probably too small. But the expectation is that the consumer and small business confidence is going to improve as a result of the rate environment being more supportive.
所以这是一个很好的观点。因此，在这个时间点上，减少幅度太小。现在要看到任何在消费模式方面的影响还为时过早，我们调查过了，但正如你所预料的那样，几乎没有什么明显的变化，可能太小了。但预期是，由于利率环境更加支持，消费者和小企业的信心将会提高。
Because -- as we said this morning, right there are -- we see no evidence of stress in terms of credit. We see demand in terms of our premium products. We see very strong renewal rates even when Card Members are moving to a higher price point. So there is definitely capacity to spend – to spend more. And my expectation is that the accumulation of cuts will provide some support for the consumer and small business confidence and that will provide some support to billing. And in order to go back to the first question we addressed this morning, especially to that organic growth that would benefit from that.
因为——正如我们今天早上所说的那样，我们没有看到信贷方面的压力迹象。我们在高端产品方面看到了需求。即使卡会员转向更高的价格点，我们也看到了非常强劲的续订率。所以绝对有能力去消费——去消费更多。而我的预期是，累积的削减将为消费者和小企业信心提供一些支持，这将为账单提供一些支持。为了回到我们今天早上讨论的第一个问题，尤其是有机增长将从中受益。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. Our final question will come from Mihir Bhatia of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
谢谢。我们的最后一个问题将由美国银行的 Mihir Bhatia 提出。请继续。
Mihir Bhatia 米希尔·巴蒂亚
Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Wanted to turn to T&E spend for a second. And just a two part question on that. The first is just on airline spend. I think it accelerated this quarter. Can you just talk about the drivers there? Was it corporate, consumer, both, what you saw there? And then just on restaurant spending. I think it was – it detailed a little bit this quarter, but just going back to the opening remarks, you referenced just the investments you're making in that category between Resy and Tock, and just adding those benefits to various cards. Do you expect restaurant spending as a category to become a bigger part of your business and grow? Like should we expect acceleration in that spending from here? Thanks.
嗨，早上好，谢谢您回答我的问题。我想谈谈差旅费用的问题。这是一个两部分的问题。首先是关于航空公司支出。我认为这个季度有所加速。您能谈谈那里的驱动因素吗？是企业、消费者，还是两者都有，您在那里看到了什么？然后是关于餐厅支出。我认为这个季度有所详细说明，但回到开场白，您提到您在 Resy 和 Tock 之间的投资，并将这些福利添加到各种卡片中。您是否预计餐厅支出作为一个类别会成为您业务中更大的一部分并增长？我们是否应该期待从这里开始的支出加速？谢谢。
Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬·斯奎里
Yes. So let me talk about restaurant spending. So when you look at -- before we made our foray into sort of the restaurant reservation business here with Resy, restaurant spending was not our biggest T&E category. Our biggest T&E category and still our fastest-growing T&E category right now is restaurants. And our expectations are that we will continue to gain share in that restaurant space. If you look at it, we've -- just over the last five years, we've grown twice what the industry growth rate has been from a restaurant perspective.
是的。那么让我谈谈餐厅消费。在我们通过 Resy 进入餐厅预订业务之前，餐厅消费并不是我们最大的 T&E 类别。我们最大的 T&E 类别，并且目前增长最快的 T&E 类别是餐厅。我们的期望是我们将在餐厅领域继续获得份额。如果你看看，从餐厅的角度来看，在过去五年中，我们的增长速度是行业增长率的两倍。
Yes, there was a little bit of a decel this quarter, but I guess 8% to 7%, but I'm not really all that concerned about that. And I think with our Tock acquisition and so forth, I think we will continue to punch above our weight from a restaurant perspective. I'll just give you a high level on airline. I don't think there's really a lot of change whether it's from a corporate perspective or a consumer perspective from airline, I mean, you went from 5% to 6%. I mean that's not in some cases, it can just be a little rounding up or a little rounding down quarter-to-quarter. But airline is still strong. And as we said, we saw international bookings -- I mean I didn't say this, but we saw international bookings in the third quarter from our travel business actually be at the highest levels since before the pandemic.
是的，这个季度确实有一点减速，但我想从 8%到 7%，我对此并不太担心。我认为随着我们对 Tock 的收购等等，从餐厅的角度来看，我们将继续超越我们的实力。我就航空公司给你一个大致的情况。我认为无论是从企业角度还是消费者角度来看，航空公司并没有太多变化，我的意思是，你从 5%到 6%。在某些情况下，这可能只是季度之间的小幅上调或下调。但航空公司仍然很强劲。正如我们所说，我们在第三季度看到国际预订——我没有说过这一点，但我们看到我们的旅游业务在第三季度的国际预订实际上达到了自疫情前以来的最高水平。
So our Card Members are still looking to travel. They are looking at -- when you are traveling internationally, you tend to spend a little bit more than when you're traveling domestically. So I don't think there is much to read into the airline piece of it or the restaurant piece other than restaurant is still a very, very strong category for us.
因此，我们的持卡会员仍在寻找旅行机会。他们在考虑——当你进行国际旅行时，往往比国内旅行花费更多。因此，我认为航空部分或餐厅部分没有太多需要解读的，除了餐厅对我们来说仍然是一个非常非常强劲的类别。
But the 1 point up and 1 point down, I wouldn't make too much about for this particular quarter. But I think that from a restaurant perspective, we obviously are doubling down on restaurant, not only from the perspective of what we've done with the Tock in Rome acquisition, but just look at the Gold Card refresh, which is a heavy dining product and it's targeted at a cohort Millennial and Gen-Zs that spend more in dining than any other cohort that we have. So we are pretty bullish on the restaurant industry.
但是对于这个季度来说，上下浮动 1 个百分点，我不会过多解读。但我认为，从餐饮业的角度来看，我们显然在加倍关注餐饮业，不仅是从我们在罗马收购 Tock 的角度来看，还要看看 Gold Card 的更新，这是一个重度餐饮产品，目标是消费在餐饮上的千禧一代和 Z 世代，他们在餐饮上的花费比我们拥有的任何其他群体都多。所以我们对餐饮业持乐观态度。
Kartik Ramachandran 卡尔蒂克·拉马钱德兰
With that, we will bring the call to an end. Thank you again for joining today’s call and for your continued interest in American Express. The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions. Operator, back to you.
就此，我们将结束此次电话会议。再次感谢您参加今天的电话会议，并对美国运通的持续关注。投资者关系团队将随时解答任何后续问题。请操作员继续。
Operator 操作员
Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call. You can also access a digital replay of the call at (877)-660-6853 or (201)-612-7415, access code 13749052 after 1:00 p.m. ET on October 18 through October 25. That will conclude our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
女士们，先生们，电话会议的网络重播将在通话结束后不久在我们的投资者关系网站 ir.americanexpress.com 上提供。您也可以在 10 月 18 日下午 1:00（美国东部时间）至 10 月 25 日期间，通过拨打(877)-660-6853 或(201)-612-7415，访问代码 13749052，来访问电话会议的数字重播。这将结束我们今天的电话会议。感谢您的参与。您现在可以断开连接。
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