2024-10-23 Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q3 2024 Results Conference Call October 23, 2024 5:30 PM ET

特斯拉公司 (NASDAQ:TSLA) 2024 年第三季度业绩电话会议美国东部时间 2024 年 10 月 23 日下午 5:30

Company Participants 公司参与者

Travis Axelrod - Head of Investor Relations

特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德 - 投资者关系主管

Elon Musk - Chief Executive Officer

埃隆-马斯克 - 首席执行官

Ashok Elluswamy - Director, Autopilot Software

Ashok Elluswamy - Autopilot 软件总监

Vaibhav Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

首席财务官

Lars Moravy - Vice President, Vehicle Engineering

拉尔斯-莫拉维 - 车辆工程副总裁

Conference Call Participants

电话会议与会者

Pierre Ferragu - New Street

皮埃尔-费拉古 - 新街

Adam Jonas - Morgan Stanley

Adam Jonas - 摩根士丹利

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2024 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, Head of Investor Relations, and I am joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja and a number of other executives.

大家下午好，欢迎收看特斯拉 2024 年第三季度问答网络直播。我是投资者关系部主管特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德（Travis Axelrod），今天和我在一起的有埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）、瓦伊巴夫-塔尼加（Vaibhav Taneja）以及其他一些高管。

Our Q3 results were announced at about 3 P.M. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

我们的第三季度业绩已于美国中部时间下午 3 点左右在我们发布的更新卡牌中公布，该卡牌与本次网络广播的链接相同。在本次电话会议中，我们将讨论我们的业务前景并发表前瞻性声明。这些评论基于我们今天的预测和预期。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the question-and-answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue.

由于一系列风险和不确定性，包括我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中提到的风险和不确定性，实际事件或结果可能会有实质性的差异。在今天电话会议的问答部分，请仅限于提出一个问题和一个追问。请使用举手按钮加入提问队列。

Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

在我们进入问答环节之前，埃隆有一些开场白。埃隆？

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Thank you. 谢谢。

So to recap, something that [Indiscernible] the industry I've seen year-over-year declines in order volumes in Q3. Tesla at the same time has achieved record deliveries. In fact, I think if you look at EV companies worldwide to the best of my knowledge, no EV company is even profitable. And I'm not - to the best of my knowledge, there was no EV division of any company, of any existing auto company that is profitable.

总而言之，我看到第三季度行业订单量出现了同比下降。与此同时，特斯拉却实现了创纪录的交付量。事实上，据我所知，纵观全球电动汽车公司，没有一家电动汽车公司是盈利的。而且据我所知，没有任何一家公司的电动汽车部门是盈利的。

So it is notable that Tesla is profitable despite a very challenging automotive environment. And this quarter actually is a record Q3 for us. So we produced our 7-millionth vehicle actually just yesterday. So congratulations to the teams that made it happen in Tesla. That's staggeringly immense amount of work to make 7million cars.

因此，值得注意的是，尽管汽车行业的环境极具挑战性，特斯拉仍然实现了盈利。本季度实际上是我们创纪录的第三季度。实际上，就在昨天，我们生产了第700万辆汽车。因此，祝贺特斯拉实现这一目标的团队。生产 700 万辆汽车的工作量之大令人咋舌。

So, let's see. And we also have the energy storage business is growing like wildfire, with strong demand for both Megapack and Powerwall. And as people know, on October 10th, we laid out a vision for an autonomous future that I think is very compelling. So, the Tesla team did a phenomenal job there with actually giving people an opportunity to experience the future, where you have humanoid robots walking among the crowd, not with a canned video presentation or anything, but literally walking among the crowd, serving drinks and whatnot.

我们来看看。我们的储能业务也在如火如荼地发展，Megapack 和 Powerwall 的需求都很旺盛。众所周知，10 月 10 日，我们提出了自主未来的愿景，我认为这非常引人注目。特斯拉团队的工作非常出色，他们让人们有机会体验未来，让仿人机器人走在人群中，而不是通过视频演示或其他方式，而是真的走在人群中，提供饮料和其他服务。

And we had 50 autonomous vehicles. There were 20 Cybercabs, but there were an additional 30 Model Ys operating fully autonomously the entire night, carrying thousands of peoples [Indiscernible] with no incidents, the entire night. So -- and for those who went there that -- it's worth emphasizing that these the Cybercab had no steering wheel or brake or accelerator pedals. Meaning, there was no -- there's no -- there was no way for anyone to intervene manually even if they wanted to. And the whole night went very smoothly.

我们有 50 辆自动驾驶汽车。其中有20辆Cybercabs，但还有另外30辆Model Y整晚都在完全自主地运行，搭载了数千人[无法辨认]，整晚都没有发生任何事故。因此，值得强调的是，这些网约车没有方向盘、刹车或油门踏板。也就是说，即使有人想人工干预，也没有办法整个晚上都非常顺利。

现在的网约车和完全自动驾驶的网约车，区别在哪里？如果人工智能获得很大程度的发展，是不是有更多闲置的劳动力？这些人开网约车，还是让机器人开？经济价值存在不确定。

So, regarding the vehicle business, we are still on-track to deliver more affordable models starting in the first half of 2025. This is I think probably people are wondering what should they assume for vehicle sales growth next year. And at the risk of - to take a bit of risk here, I do want to give some rough estimate, which is I think it's 20% to 30% vehicle growth next year.

因此，在汽车业务方面，我们仍然有望从 2025 年上半年开始推出更多经济实惠的车型。我想，人们可能想知道明年的汽车销量增长情况。冒着风险，我想给出一些粗略的估计，我认为明年的汽车销量增长在20%到30%之间。

Notwithstanding negative external events, like if there's some force majeure events, like some big war breaks out or interest rates go sky high or something like that, then we can't overcome massive force majeure events. But I think with our lower cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess.

尽管出现了一些负面的外部事件，比如说发生了一些不可抗力事件，如爆发了大规模战争或利率飙升之类的，但我们无法克服大规模的不可抗力事件。但我认为，随着自动驾驶技术的出现，我们的汽车成本会越来越低，明年我估计会有 20% 到 30% 的增长。

And then Cybercab reaching volume production in ’26. I do feel confident of Cybercab reaching volume production in ‘26. So just starting production, reaching volume production in ‘26. And that's -- that should be substantial. And we're aiming for at least 2 million units a year of Cybercab. That'll be in more than one factory, but I think it's at least 2 million units a year, maybe 4 million ultimately.

然后在 26 年实现 Cybercab 的量产。我对 Cybercab 在 26 年实现量产很有信心。所以，刚刚开始生产，26 年就能实现量产。这应该是相当可观的。我们的目标是每年至少生产 200 万辆 Cybercab。我们的目标是每年至少生产 200 万辆 Cybercab，而且不止一家工厂生产，但我认为每年至少生产 200 万辆，最终可能达到 400 万辆。

So, yeah, these are just my best guesses, but if you ask me my best guesses, that those are my best guesses.

所以，是的，这些只是我的最佳猜测，但如果你问我的最佳猜测，这些就是我的最佳猜测。

The cell 4680 lines, the team is actually doing great work there. The 4680 is rapidly approaching the point where it is the most competitive set. So when you consider the fully landed - the cost of a battery pack, fully landed in the U.S. net of incentives and duties, the 4680 is tracking to be the most competitive. Meaning lower cost [Indiscernible] considered than any other alternative. We're not quite there yet, but we're close to being there, which I think is, extremely exciting. And we've got several - a lot of ideas to go well beyond that. So if I think there's -- if we execute well, the 4680 will have the -- Tesla internally produced cell will be the most cost competitive cell in North America, a testament to a tremendous amount of hard work there by the team.

在 4680 单元生产线上，团队的工作非常出色。4680 正迅速接近最有竞争力的电池组。因此，如果考虑到电池组在美国完全落地的成本（扣除优惠政策和关税），4680电池组将成为最具竞争力的电池组。也就是说，4680的成本比其他任何替代方案都要低。我们还没有达到这个目标，但已经很接近了，我认为这非常令人兴奋。我们已经有了一些--很多想法要超越这个目标。因此，如果我认为--如果我们执行得好，4680将成为--特斯拉内部生产的电池将成为北美最具成本竞争力的电池，这也是团队辛勤工作的最好证明。

So that's - we'll continue to buy a lot of cells from our competitors. Our intent is not to make to provide to make cells just internally. So I don't want to set off any alarm bells here. We're also increasing substantially our vehicle output and our stationary storage output. So we need a lot of cells. And most of them will still come from suppliers, but I think it is some good news that the Tesla internal cell is likely - is tracking to be the most competitive in the U.S.

因此，我们将继续从竞争对手那里购买大量电池。我们的目的不是在内部制造电池。所以我不想在这里敲响警钟。我们的汽车产量和固定存储产量也在大幅增加。因此，我们需要大量的电池。虽然大部分电池仍将来自供应商，但我认为特斯拉的内部电池有可能成为美国最具竞争力的电池，这是一个好消息。

So with respect to autonomy, as people are experiencing in the cars, really from week-to-week, there are significant improvements in the miles between interventions. So with the new version 12.5, release of full self-driving in Cybertruck, combining the code into a single stack so that the, city driving and the entering the highway driving are one stack, which is a bigger burden for the highway driving. So it's just all neural nets.

因此，在自动驾驶方面，正如人们在汽车上所体验到的那样，从一周到一周，干预之间的里程数有了显著提高。在新的 12.5 版本中，Cybertruck 推出了完全自动驾驶功能，将代码合并为一个堆栈，这样城市驾驶和进入高速公路驾驶就可以合并为一个堆栈，这对高速公路驾驶来说是一个更大的负担。因此，这只是所有的神经网络。

And the release of Actually Smart Summon. We're trying to have a sense of humor here. And we're also -- so that that's 12.5. Version 13 of FSD is going out soon. Ashok will elaborate more on that later in the call. We expect to see some roughly a 5 or 6 fold improvement in miles between interventions compared to 12.5. And looking at the year as a whole, the improvement in miles between interventions, we think will be at least three orders of magnitude.

还有 "实际上的智能召唤 "的发布。我们试图在这里表现出幽默感。我们还 -- 所以这是 12.5 版。FSD 第 13 版即将发布。阿肖克稍后会在电话中详细介绍。与 12.5 版相比，我们预计干预之间的里程数会有大约 5 或 6 倍的提高。从全年来看，我们认为两次干预之间的里程数至少会提高三个数量级。

如果需要人为干预，间隔多少又有什么用？干预越少掉以轻心的风险越大。

So that's a very dramatic improvement in the course of the year. And we expect that trend to continue next year. So, the current internal expectation for the Tesla FSD having longer miles between intervention than human is the second quarter of next year, which means it may end up being the third quarter, but it's next - it seems extremely likely to be next year.

因此，在这一年里，情况有了非常显著的改善。我们预计这一趋势将在明年继续保持。因此，目前特斯拉 FSD 比人类干预间隔里程更长的内部预期是明年第二季度，这意味着最终可能是第三季度，但明年--看来极有可能是明年。

Ashok. Do you want to add anything?

阿肖克你有什么要补充的吗？

Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克-埃卢斯瓦米

Yeah. miles between critical interventions, yep, like you mentioned, Elon, we already made a 100x improvement with 12.5 from starting of this year. And then with v13 release, we expect to be a 1000x from the beginning - from January of this year on production [Indiscernible] software. And this came in because technology improvements going to end-to-end, having higher frame rate, partly also helped by hardware force, more capabilities, so on.

是的，就像你提到的，埃隆，从今年年初开始，我们已经通过 12.5 版实现了 100 倍的改进。而随着 v13 版本的发布，我们预计从今年 1 月开始，生产软件的性能将提高 1000 倍。这是因为端到端技术的改进、更高的帧速率、部分硬件力量的帮助、更多的功能等等。

And we hope that we continue to scale the neural network, the data, the training compute, et cetera. By Q2 next year, we should cross over the average human miles per critical intervention, call it collision in that case.

我们希望继续扩大神经网络、数据、训练计算等方面的规模。到明年第二季度，我们应该能超过人类每次关键干预的平均里程数，在这种情况下，我们称之为碰撞。

这个定义有点意思。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

I mean, that that's just unvarnishing our internal estimate.

我的意思是，这只是揭露了我们内心的估计。

Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克-埃卢斯瓦米

Yes. Yeah. 是的是的

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

So, that's not sandbagging or anything else. Our internal estimate is Q2 of next year to be safer than human and then to continue with rapid improvements, thereafter.

因此，这并不是在打沙袋或其他什么。我们的内部估计是明年第二季度比人类更安全，然后继续快速改进。

So, a vast majority of humanity has no idea that Teslas drive themselves. So especially for something like a Model 3 or Model Y, it looks like a normal car. So you don't expect normal car to be able to be intelligent enough to drive itself. The Cybercab looks different. Cybertruck looks different. But Model Y and Model 3 look, they're good looking cars, but look, I think, look fairly normal.

因此，绝大多数人都不知道特斯拉可以自动驾驶。因此，特别是像 Model 3 或 Model Y 这样的车型，看起来就像一辆普通汽车。所以你不会指望普通汽车能够智能到自动驾驶。Cybercab 看起来不一样。Cybertruck 看起来不一样。但 Model Y 和 Model 3 看起来，它们是很好看的汽车，但我认为，它们看起来相当正常。

You don't expect a fairly normal looking car to have the intelligence enough AI to be able to drive itself, but it does. So we do want to expose that to more people. And so we're doing every time we have, a significant improvement in the software, we'll roll out another sort of 30 day trial. So to encourage people to try it again. And we are seeing a significant improvement in adoption. So the take rate for FSD has improved substantially especially after the 10/10 event.

你不会指望一辆外观相当普通的汽车拥有足够智能的人工智能来实现自动驾驶，但它确实做到了。因此，我们希望让更多的人看到这一点。因此，每当我们在软件上有重大改进时，我们都会再推出 30 天的试用期。这样可以鼓励人们再次试用。我们看到采用率有了显著提高。因此，FSD 的采用率大幅提高，尤其是在 10/10 事件之后。

So there's no need to wait for a robo-taxi or Cybercab to experience full autonomy. We expect to achieve that next year with the -- with our existing vehicle line.

因此，体验完全自动驾驶无需等待机器人出租车或网络出租车。我们希望明年通过现有的汽车产品线实现这一目标。

Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克-埃卢斯瓦米

One point Actually Smart Summon gives a small taste of what it's going to look like, the car able to drive itself to the user within private parking lots. Currently, it's speed limited, but then it's going to quickly be increased. And we already had more than 1 million usage [Indiscernible] of Smart Summon.

实际上，智能召唤（Smart Summon）的一个点让我们看到了它的雏形，即汽车可以在私人停车场内自己开到用户身边。目前，它有速度限制，但很快就会提高。目前，Smart Summon 的使用次数已超过 100 万次。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yep. So, and we actually we have, for Tesla employees in the Bay Area, we already are offering a ride-hailing capability. So you can actually with the development app, you can request a ride, and it'll take you anywhere in the Bay Area. We do have a safety driver for now, but the software required to do that, we've developed and I mean, David, do you want to elaborate on that?

是的。实际上，我们已经为湾区的特斯拉员工提供了叫车服务。所以你可以通过开发应用请求搭车，它会带你去湾区的任何地方。目前我们确实有一名安全司机，但实现这一功能所需的软件是我们开发的，我是说，戴维，你想详细说明一下吗？

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Yeah. Sure. David, we showed some screenshots of this in the Q1 shareholder deck. And, yeah, this is real. We've been testing it for the better part of the year and, the building blocks that we needed in order to build this functionality and deliver it to production, we've been thinking about working on for years.

当然。大卫，我们在第一季度股东大会上展示了一些截图。是的，这是真的。我们已经测试了一年多的时间，为了实现这一功能并将其投入生产，我们已经考虑了很多年。

It just so happens that we've used those building blocks to deliver great features for our customers in the meantime, such as sharing your profile, synchronizing it across cars, so that every single car that you jump into, whether it's another car that you own or a car that somebody's loaned to you or a rental car that you jump into, it looks exactly like yours. Everything's synchronized, seat mirror positions, media navigation, everything is the same.

碰巧的是，在此期间，我们利用这些构件为我们的客户提供了很棒的功能，例如共享您的个人资料，在不同的汽车之间同步，这样您跳进的每一辆车，无论是您自己的车还是别人借给您的车，或者是您跳进的租来的车，看起来都和您的一模一样。一切都是同步的，座椅后视镜位置、媒体导航，一切都是一样的。

苹果的iCloud。

Just what you would expect from, one of our robotaxis. But we gave that functionality to our customers right now because we built it intending for it to be used in the future. We’re releasing that functionality now. All the -- and then cybersecurity that we knew we were going to need to deliver that functionality, sending a navigation to destination from your phone to the vehicle, and so we’re doing that now with the ride-hailing app, but it's something that we've made available to customers for years.

正如你所期待的那样，这就是我们的自动驾驶出租车的功能。但我们现在将该功能提供给客户，因为我们当初设计时就打算未来使用它。现在我们正在发布这一功能。我们知道提供这一功能需要的所有网络安全措施，例如从手机向车辆发送导航目的地，我们现在通过叫车应用实现了这一点，这也是我们多年来为客户提供的功能之一。

Seeing the progress on route in the mobile app, that's something you'll need for the ride-hailing app. But again, we released it in the meantime. So it's not like we're just starting to think about this stuff right now while we're building out the early stages of our ride-hailing network. We've been thinking about this for quite a long time, and we're excited to get the functionality out there.

在移动应用中实现路线进展跟踪，这也是叫车应用所需的功能。不过，我们在此期间已经发布了它。所以，并不是说我们现在才开始考虑这些功能，而是在构建叫车网络的早期阶段就已规划了这些。我们对此已经考虑了相当长一段时间，并很高兴能够将这些功能推向市场。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. And we do expect to roll out ride-hailing in California, Texas next year to the public. But not the California is somewhat there's quite a long regulatory approval process. I think we should get approval next year, but it's contingent upon regulatory approval. Texas is a lot faster.

是的我们预计明年会在加州和德州向公众推出叫车服务。但加州的情况有所不同，监管部门的审批过程相当漫长。我认为我们明年就能获得批准，但这取决于监管部门的批准。德克萨斯州要快得多。

So it's, I'd say, like, we're -- we'll definitely have available at Texas, and probably have it available in California subject to regulatory approval. And then -- and maybe some other states actually, next year as well, but at least California and Texas. So that'd be very exciting. There's really a profound change. Tesla becomes more than a sort of vehicle and battery manufacturing company, at that point.

因此，我想说的是，我们肯定会在德克萨斯州推出，可能会在加利福尼亚州推出，但需获得监管部门的批准。也许明年还会在其他州推出，但至少会在加州和德州推出。因此，这将是非常令人兴奋的。这确实是一场深刻的变革。到那时，特斯拉将不仅仅是一家汽车和电池制造公司。

So we published our Q3 vehicle safety report, which shows one impact for every 7 million miles of autopilot, that compares to the U.S. average of one crash roughly every 700,000 miles. So it's currently showing a 10x safety improvement relative to the U.S. average. And we continue to expand our AI training capacity to accommodate the needs of both FSD and Optimus. We're currently not a training compute constraint.

我们发布的第三季度车辆安全报告显示，自动驾驶汽车每行驶 700 万英里就会发生一起碰撞事故，而美国的平均水平大约是每行驶 70 万英里就会发生一起碰撞事故。因此，与美国平均水平相比，自动驾驶汽车的安全性能提高了 10 倍。我们将继续扩大我们的人工智能培训能力，以满足 FSD 和 Optimus 的需求。目前，我们的训练计算能力并不吃紧。

That's probably the biggest factors that the FSD is actually getting so good that it takes us a while to actually find mistakes. And when you start getting to where it could take 10,000 miles to find a mistake, it takes a while to actually figure out which it is -- is this soccer ball better than -- is soccer ball A better than soccer ball B? It actually takes a while to figure it out because neither one of them are making mistakes, or takes take a long time to make mistakes.

这可能是最大的因素，FSD 实际上变得如此之好，以至于我们需要一段时间才能真正发现错误。当你开始花上一万英里去发现一个错误时，你需要花上一段时间才能真正搞清楚它是--这个足球比--足球A比足球B好吗？这实际上需要一段时间才能搞清楚，因为他们都没有犯错，或者说犯错需要很长时间。

So that's actually the single [Indiscernible] based on many factors. How long does it take us to figure out which version is better? So that’s sort of high class problem. Obviously, having a giant fleet is very helpful for breaking this out.

因此，这实际上是基于多种因素的单一版本。我们要花多长时间才能搞清楚哪个版本更好？这就是一个高级问题。很显然，拥有一支庞大的舰队对解决这个问题很有帮助。

And then with Optimus, we show a massive improvement in Optimus's dexterity movement on October 10. And our next-gen, hand and forearm, which has 22 degrees of freedom double - which is double the prior hand and forearm, it's extremely human like.

然后是擎天柱，我们在 10 月 10 日展示了擎天柱灵巧动作的巨大进步。我们的下一代手和前臂有 22 个自由度，是之前手和前臂的两倍，非常像人类。

And also it's much better tactile sensing. It's really - I feel confident in saying that we have most advanced humanoid robot by long shot. And we're moreover the only company that really has all of the ingredients necessary to scale humanoid robots. Because the things that what other companies are missing is that they're missing the AI brain, and they're missing the ability to really scale to very high volume production.

此外，它的触觉感应也要好得多。我可以自信地说，我们拥有最先进的仿人机器人。而且，我们也是唯一一家真正具备人形机器人所需的所有要素的公司。因为其他公司缺少的是人工智能大脑，缺少真正实现大批量生产的能力。

So some have seen some impressive video demos, but what but they’re [lacking is] (ph) localized AI and the [going] (ph) to scale volume to very high numbers. As I've said on a few occasions before, I think Optimus will ultimately be the most valuable product. So I think it has a good chance of being the most valuable product ever made.

因此，有些人已经看到了一些令人印象深刻的视频演示，但他们[缺乏的是]（音）本地化人工智能和[去]（音）将数量扩展到非常高数量的能力。正如我之前在一些场合说过的，我认为 Optimus 最终会成为最有价值的产品。因此，我认为它很有可能成为有史以来最有价值的产品。

For the energy business, that's doing extremely well. And there's the opportunity ahead is gigantic. The Lathrop Megapack factory, reached 200 Megapacks a week, which is now a 40 gigawatt hour a year run rate. And, we have a second factory in Shanghai that will begin with a 20 gigawatt hour a year run rate in Q1 next year, so next quarter. And, that will also scale up. It won't be long before, we're shipping a 100 gigawatt hours a year, stationary storage at Tesla.

就能源业务而言，它的表现非常出色。未来的机遇是巨大的。Lathrop Megapack 工厂每周生产 200 Megapacks，现在的年产量为 40 千兆瓦时。我们在上海还有第二家工厂，将于明年第一季度（即下个季度）开始生产，年产量将达到 20 千兆瓦时。该工厂也将扩大规模。不久之后，特斯拉的固定存储设备年出货量将达到 100 千兆瓦时。

And that'll ultimately grow I think to multiple terawatt hours per year. It has to actually in order to have a sustainable energy future. If you're not at the terawatt scale, you're not really moving the needle. So if you look at our admittedly very complicated last master plan, which I think actually is too much detail. I'll -- maybe I'll ask [Vaibhav] (ph) to analyze it.

我认为这最终将增长到每年多兆瓦时。为了实现可持续能源的未来，必须如此。如果你没有达到太瓦时的规模，你就无法真正实现目标。因此，如果你看看我们公认的非常复杂的上一个总体规划，我认为它实际上太详细了。也许我会请[Vaibhav]（音）分析一下。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Sure Elon. 当然，埃隆。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Can give us the TLDR on the last master plan. But we showed in that last plan that it is possible to take all of us to a fully sustainable energy situation, using sustainable energy power generation and batteries and electric transport.

可以给我们上一个总体规划的简要说明。但我们在上一个计划中已经表明，我们有可能利用可持续能源发电、电池和电动交通工具，实现完全可持续的能源状况。

And there are no fundamental material limitations. Like, there's not some very rare material that we don't have enough of on earth. We actually have enough of raw materials to, yeah, take all of human civilization make it fully sustainable. And even if civilization dramatically increased its electricity usage, it would still be fully sustainable.

而且没有基本的材料限制。就像地球上并不存在某种稀有材料我们有足够的原材料让整个人类文明完全可持续发展即使人类文明大幅提高了用电量它仍然是完全可持续的

One way to think of the progress of a civilization, it's based out a little esoteric, but is percentage completion of Kardashev scale. So Kardashev Scale 1 would be you're using all the power of a planet. We were we're currently less than 1% on Kardashev Level 1. Level 2 would be using all the power of the sun. And level 3, all the power of the galaxy. So we have a long way to go. Long way to go. When you think in Kardashev terms, it becomes obvious that by far the biggest source of energy is the sun. Everything else is in the noise.

从文明进步的角度来看，虽然有些深奥，但可以用卡尔达舍夫指数的完成百分比来衡量。卡尔达舍夫等级1意味着文明能够利用一个星球的所有能量。我们目前还不到等级1的1%。等级2是指利用恒星（太阳）的所有能量，而等级3是指利用整个银河系的能量。所以我们还有很长的路要走，真的很长的路。用卡尔达舍夫等级来思考问题时，很明显，太阳是迄今为止最大的能源来源，其他能源微不足道。

So in conclusion, Tesla is focused on building the future of energy, transport, robotics, and AI. And this is a time when others are just focused on managing around near term trends. We think what we're doing is the right approach. And, if we execute on our objectives, then I think we will. Tesla my prediction is Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world and probably by a long by a long shot.

总之，特斯拉专注于打造能源、交通、机器人和人工智能的未来。而在这个时候，其他人只是专注于围绕近期趋势进行管理。我们认为我们所做的是正确的。而且，如果我们能实现我们的目标，我想我们会成功的。特斯拉我的预测是，特斯拉将成为全球最有价值的公司，而且很可能会是非常有价值的公司。

I want to thank the Tesla team once again for strong execution in a tough operating environment, and we're looking forward to building, an incredibly exciting future. Thank you.

我要再次感谢特斯拉团队在艰难的运营环境中表现出的强大执行力，我们期待着建设一个令人无比振奋的未来。谢谢大家。

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Great. Thank you very much, Elon. And I'll let Vaibhav pass some more big remarks as well.

太好了非常感谢，埃隆。我让 Vaibhav 再发表一些重要讲话。

Vaibhav Taneja

Yeah. Thanks. Our Q3 results were positive and once again, demonstrate the scale to which businesses evolved. What they use with the generation of record operating cash flows of $6.3 billion. Our automotive revenues grew both quarter-on-quarter, year-on-year. While we had unit volume growth, we did experience reduction in ASPs, primarily due to the impact of financing incentives.

谢谢 - Yeah.谢谢。我们第三季度的业绩是积极的，再次证明了企业发展的规模。我们创造了创纪录的 63 亿美元运营现金流。我们的汽车业务收入实现了季度和年度双增长。虽然销量有所增长，但平均售价却有所下降，这主要是受融资激励措施的影响。

As a reminder, we are providing these incentives primarily using third-party banks and financial institution and recognize the cost of these incentives as an upfront reduction to them. We released FSD for Cybertruck and other features like Actually Smart Summon, like Elon talked about in North America, which contributed $326 million of revenues in the quarter. We continue to see elevated levels of regular 2 week credit sales with over $2 billion of revenues so far this year.

提醒一下，我们主要通过第三方银行和金融机构提供这些激励措施，并将这些激励成本作为前期扣减。我们在北美市场为Cybertruck发布了FSD（完全自动驾驶）和其他功能，比如“真正智能的召唤”，正如Elon所提到的，这些为本季度贡献了3.26亿美元的收入。今年截至目前，我们持续看到较高水平的定期两周信贷销售，累计收入已超过20亿美元。

To expand on this at an industrial level, China continues to outperform U.S. and Europe by a factor of three. And if there is something to be learned from that, this gives a signal of what is to come in other regions. As customers’ acceptance of EV growth. And we feel that is the right strategy to build affordable and more compelling leads.

就工业层面而言，中国的表现继续比美国和欧洲高出三倍。如果说这其中有什么值得借鉴的地方，那么这也为其他地区的发展提供了一个信号。随着客户对电动汽车增长的接受。我们认为，这是打造经济实惠、更具吸引力的电动汽车的正确战略。

Our focus remains on growing unit volume, while avoiding a build-up of inventory. To support this strategy, we're continuing to offer extremely compelling vehicle financing options in every market.

我们的重点仍然是增加销量，同时避免库存积压。为了支持这一战略，我们将继续在各个市场提供极具吸引力的汽车融资方案。

When you compare any vehicle in our lineup with other OEMs, believe our vehicles provide much better value, particularly when you consider the safety features, performance, and unparalleled software functionalities, like David also talked about, include also what, Ashok talked about around autonomy, music options, parental controls, and much more.

当您将我们产品系列中的任何一款车与其他原始设备制造商的产品进行比较时，您会发现我们的产品具有更高的价值，特别是当您考虑到安全性能、性能和无与伦比的软件功能时，就像大卫所谈到的那样，其中还包括阿肖克所谈到的自动驾驶、音乐选项、家长控制等等。

While every vehicle in our lineup comes up with these capabilities, there is an awareness gap, not just with buyers, but at times, even with existing owners. We plan on making these more visible in our interactions with both existing and future customers. Automotive margins improved quarter over quarter as a result of a 50 features released discussed before. Increase in our overall production and delivery volume, albeit benefit from the marketing pricing, and more localized deliveries in region, which resulted in lower freight and duties.

虽然我们的每款车都具备这些功能，但不仅是买家，有时甚至是现有车主，对这些功能的认识都存在差距。我们计划在与现有客户和未来客户的互动中更多地宣传这些功能。由于之前讨论过的 50 项功能的发布，汽车业务的利润率逐季提高。尽管受益于市场定价，但我们的总体生产量和交付量都有所增长，而且在该地区的本地化交付更多，从而降低了运费和关税。

Sustaining these margins in Q4, however, will be challenging given the current economic environment. Note that we are focused on the cost per vehicle, and there are numerous work streams within the company to squeeze that cost without compromising on customer experience.

然而，鉴于当前的经济环境，在第四季度保持这些利润率将面临挑战。请注意，我们关注的是每辆车的成本，公司内部有许多工作流程可以在不影响客户体验的情况下压缩成本。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yes. I'm assuming that's a helpful -- hopefully, a helpful macro trend is if there's a decline in in interest rates, this has a massive effect on the, automotive demand. The vast majority of people is or the demand is driven by the monthly payment. Can they put monthly payment? So, like, most likely, we'll see continue to decline interest rates, which helps with affordability vehicles.

如果利率下降，这将对汽车需求产生巨大影响。绝大多数人的需求是由月供驱动的。他们能把月供付清吗？所以，很有可能，我们会看到利率继续下降，这有助于汽车的可负担性。

Vaibhav Taneja

Yeah. I mean, that is one trend which we observed in the industry that, because of affordability being impacted because of interest rates, People are willing to take cars longer, especially in the U.S. And that is actually having an impact on all our industry too.

是的，我的意思是，这是我们在业内观察到的一个趋势，由于利率影响了人们的经济承受能力，人们愿意花更长的时间来购买汽车，尤其是在美国。

As we discussed, earlier, as we discussed impact orders, energy deployments fluctuate quarter over quarter due to customer readiness, location of orders being fulfilled, and not necessarily an indicator of demand or production within the quarter.

正如我们早些时候讨论过的，由于客户准备情况、订单完成地点的不同，影响订单、能源部署每季度都有波动，并不一定是季度内需求或生产的指标。

While we did see a decline in Q3, we expect to grow our deployment sequentially in Q4 to end the year with more than doubled of last year. Energy margins in Q3 were a record at more than 30%. This is a function of mix of projects being deployed in the quarter. Note that there will be fluctuation in margins as we manage through deployments and our inventory. Our pipeline and backlog continue to grow quarter over quarter as we fill our 2025 production slots, and we're doing our little best to keep up with the demand.

尽管我们在第三季度看到了一些下降，但预计第四季度的部署将会环比增长，全年结束时将比去年翻番。第三季度的能源利润率创下了超过30%的纪录，这与当季部署的项目组合有关。需要注意的是，随着部署和库存管理的进行，利润率会有所波动。我们的项目储备和订单积压在逐季增长，我们正在努力满足2025年的生产需求，以跟上市场需求。

Just coming back on automotive margins, I talked about -- sorry. I talked about what is happening. One other thing which I want to also share is that we're -- that we will continue to keep whatever we can to squeeze like I said before about squeezing out the cost. But this is something which we also are very capable of. I mean, just in Q3, we reached our lowest cost per micro. And that is a trend which we will keep focus on.

说回汽车利润率，我谈到了--对不起。我谈到了正在发生的事情。我还想和大家分享的一点是，我们将继续尽我们所能压缩成本，就像我之前说的压缩成本。但我们也有能力做到这一点。我的意思是，就在第三季度，我们达到了每微米最低成本。我们将继续关注这一趋势。

Then going on to service and other, we continue to show improvements in Q3. This was a result of better performance, both in our service business, which includes collision part sales and merchandise, and continued growth in supercharging. These field based revenues will continue to grow as the overall fleet size increases.

在服务和其他方面，我们在第三季度继续取得进步。这是由于我们的服务业务（包括碰撞部件销售和商品销售）表现更好，以及增压业务持续增长的结果。随着整个车队规模的扩大，这些基于现场的收入将继续增长。

Our operating expenses declined quarter over quarter in a year on year basis. This is partially due to the restructuring we undertook in Q2. Cost savings from these initiatives were partially offset by increase in costs related to our AI efforts. We've started using the GPU cluster based out of our factory house and ahead of schedule, and are on track to get 50k GPUs deployed in Texas by the end of this month.

我们的运营费用逐年逐季下降。部分原因是我们在第二季度进行了重组。这些举措节省的成本被人工智能相关成本的增加部分抵消。我们已经提前开始使用基于我们工厂的 GPU 集群，并有望在本月底之前在德克萨斯州部署 5 万个 GPU。

One thing which I'd like to elaborate is that we're being very judicious on our AI compute spend too and saying how best we can utilize the existing infrastructure before making further investments.

我想说明的一点是，我们在人工智能计算支出方面也非常审慎，在进行进一步投资之前，我们会考虑如何更好地利用现有基础设施。

On the CapEx front, we had about $3.5 billion in the quarter. This was a sequential increase largely because of investments in AI compute. We now expect our CapEx for the year to be in excess of $11 billion.

在资本支出方面，本季度我们的资本支出约为 35 亿美元。这是一个连续的增长，主要是因为对人工智能计算的投资。我们现在预计今年的资本支出将超过 110 亿美元。

We shared our vision for the future at the real world event at the beginning of the month. The Tesla team is hyper focused on delivering on that version, and all efforts are underway to make it a reality. While we've achieved significant progress this year, it will take time to get this as we find a new and incredibly complex technologies and navigate a fragmented regulatory landscape. Future is incredibly bright, and I want to thank the Tesla team once again for all their help.

我们在月初的 "真实世界 "活动中分享了我们对未来的愿景。特斯拉团队正全神贯注地实现这一版本，并正在全力以赴将其变为现实。虽然我们在今年取得了重大进展，但这还需要时间，因为我们要找到新的、极其复杂的技术，并驾驭分散的监管环境。未来无比光明，我要再次感谢特斯拉团队的所有帮助。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

A - Travis Axelrod A - 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Great. Thank you very much, Vaibhav. Now we'll go to investor questions. The first one is, is Tesla still on track to deliver the more affordable model next year as mentioned by Elon earlier? And how does it align with your AI product roadmap?

太好了非常感谢，Vaibhav。现在我们来回答投资者的问题。第一个问题是，特斯拉是否仍在按计划在明年推出埃隆之前提到的更经济实惠的车型？这与你们的人工智能产品路线图有什么关系？

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

Sure. I mean, as Elon and Vaibhav both said, you are in plan, to meet that in the first half of next year. Our mission has always been to lower the cost of our vehicles to increase the adoption of sustainable energy and transport. Part of that is lowering the cost for current vehicles, which is where, all of the personally owned vehicles that we sell today come in.

当然，我的意思是，正如埃隆和瓦伊巴哈夫所说，你们计划在明年上半年实现这一目标。我们的使命一直是降低车辆成本，以提高可持续能源和交通的采用率。其中一部分就是降低现有车辆的成本，这也是我们目前销售的所有个人拥有车辆的成本所在。

But the next stage in that really is it fits into AI roadmap is when we bring in robotaxis, which lowers the initial cost of getting into an EV. And those -- that's really where we see the marriage of EV road map and the AI road map.

而下一阶段实际上将融入我们的AI路线图，即推出机器人出租车，这将降低进入电动车市场的初始成本。在这里，我们真正看到了电动车路线图与AI路线图的结合。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. It'll be with incentive sub-30k, which is kind of a key threshold.

是的，加上激励措施，价格将低于3万美元，这是一个关键的门槛。

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Great. Thank you very much. Similar, question next. When can we expect Tesla to give us the $25,000 non-robotaxi regular car model?

太好了非常感谢类似的，下一个问题特斯拉什么时候能推出 2.5 万美元的非机器人出租车普通车型？

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

We're not breaking it on.

我们不会破坏它。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

Yeah. All our vehicles today are road jets.

是啊我们现在所有的车辆都是公路喷气机

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

I think we've made very clear that, we're the future is autonomous. It I mean, I it's going to be you know, I've actually said this many years ago, but that, in my strong belief, and I believe that is panning out to be true. So and I'll be very obvious in retrospect, is that the future is autonomous electric vehicles, and, non-autonomous gasoline vehicles in the future will be like riding a horse and using a foot bone. It's not that there are no horses. Yeah. There are some horses, but they're unusual. They're niche.

我认为我们已经非常明确地表明，未来是自动驾驶的。其实我在很多年前就说过这一点，我坚信这一点，并且相信事实也正在证明这一点。将来回过头看，这一点会非常明显——未来属于自动驾驶电动车，而非自动驾驶的汽油车就像骑马和用老式电话一样。这并不是说没有马，马还是有的，但它们是罕见的，是小众的。

And so it just everything's going to be electric autonomous. I think this is like it should be frankly blindingly obvious at this point that that is the future. So a lot of automotive companies or most automotive companies have not internalized this, which is surprising, because we've been shouting this from the rooftops for such a long time, and it will accrue to their detriment in the future. But all of our vehicles in the future will be autonomous.

因此，一切都将是电动自主的。我觉得这一点应该是显而易见的，这就是未来。所以很多汽车公司或大多数汽车公司还没有意识到这一点，这很令人惊讶，因为我们已经在屋顶上喊了很久，这将在未来对他们不利。但未来我们所有的车辆都将是自动驾驶的。

Yes. So all the vehicles that we've really made, all the 7 million vehicles, vast majority are capable of autonomy. And, we're currently making on the order of 35,000 autonomous vehicles a week. Compare that to, say, Waymo's entire fleet is less than – they’ve have less than a 1,000 cars. We make 35,000 a week.

是的，我们真正制造的所有车辆，所有的 700 万辆汽车，绝大多数都能实现自动驾驶。而且，我们目前每周生产 35000 辆自动驾驶汽车。相比之下，Waymo 的整个车队还不到 1000 辆车。我们每周生产 3.5 万辆。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

Yeah. And our cars look normal.

是啊我们的车看起来很正常

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. They mostly look normal. The Cybertruck looks abnormal. And the, Cybercab/robotaxi. We wanted to have something futuristic working. I think it does look futuristic. And it's worth noting with respect to the Cybercab. It's not it's especially not just a revolutionary vehicle design, but a revolution in vehicle manufacturing that is also coming with the Cybercab. The cycle time, like, the, the units per hour of the Cybercab line it is -- like, this is just really something special.

是的，大多数车型看起来都比较正常，而Cybertruck看起来则不太一样。至于Cybercab/机器人出租车，我们希望它具备未来感的设计。我认为它确实看起来很有未来感。值得一提的是，Cybercab不仅仅是车辆设计上的革命，也是在车辆制造方面的革命。Cybercab的生产线的周期时间、单位小时产量等方面，确实有一些非常特别的创新。

I mean, this is probably a yeah. Half order of magnitude better than other car manufacturing lines. Like not in the same league is what I'm saying. Not in the same league. So it's -- and I said, like, several years ago that the -- maybe the most I mean, the hottest Tesla product to copy will be the factory. Just like buy a factory.

我意思是，这可能是，比其他汽车制造生产线好上一个数量级的提升。就是说，完全不在同一个水平上。所以，几年前我就说过，也许最受追捧的特斯拉“产品”将会是它的工厂。就像直接买下一家工厂一样。

这个观点跟乔布斯是一样的。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

Yeah. In camera versus near a factory, that's up to my --

是的，在照相机里还是在工厂附近，这取决于我 --

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. It's like things yeah. So the and as we so we're rapidly evolving and manufacturing technology. So anyway, there's, like, basically, I think having a regular $25,000 model is pointless. Yeah. It would be silly. Like, it'll be completely at odds with what we believe.

是啊，这就像事情是啊。我们的制造技术也在飞速发展所以不管怎么说，就像，基本上，我认为有一个普通的25000美元的模型是没有意义的。是啊，太傻了这和我们的理念完全不符

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

In autonomous world. But matters as well as cost per mile of efficiency of that vehicle. And that's what we've done with the robotaxi.

在自主世界里。但车辆的每英里成本和效率也很重要。这就是我们在机器人出租车上所做的。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Exactly. Autonomous, it it's fully considered cost per mile, is what matters. And if you try to make a car that is, essentially, a hybrid manual automatic cars. It's not going to be as good as a dedicated autonomous car. So, yeah -- Cybercab is just not going to have steering wheels and pads. It's only designed to optimize for autonomy. But now it'll cost on the order of cost roughly $25,000. So it is a $25,000 car. And you can -- you will be able to buy one on an exclusive exclusively if you want. So just what happens to your mobile phones. You don't need it.

没错。对于自动驾驶来说，关键在于每英里的成本。如果试图制造一辆混合手动和自动功能的车，它的表现不如专门为自动驾驶设计的车辆。所以，是的——Cybercab将不会有方向盘和踏板。它只为自动驾驶优化设计。成本大约在2.5万美元左右，所以这是一辆2.5万美元的车。如果你想独家拥有一辆，也是可以的。就像手机一样，你并不需要它。

专业化的战略方向肯定是对的，混合是“既要又要”，本质上是缺乏安全感的表现。

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, what is Tesla doing to alleviate long wait times at service centers?

太好了非常感谢。下一个问题是，特斯拉如何缓解服务中心等待时间过长的问题？

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

So we aim on solving problems at the source, so at the factory before they can even affect our customers. We believe the best service is no service and our heads don't even have them.

因此，我们的目标是从源头上解决问题，在影响客户之前就把问题解决在工厂里。我们相信最好的服务就是没有服务，而我们的头脑中甚至没有服务。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

If the car doesn't break, yeah. That's the best thing.

如果车没坏，是的。那是最棒的

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Exactly. Don't see any with the test. You either do it remote, yeah fix the issue upstream or do it remotely, do it through software, maybe being at work or at home and car can be parked. And we've addressed fixed the issue, and we've partnered the field with service to make sure we're looking at the same issues.

没错。不需要进行测试。你要么远程解决问题——可以在上游解决问题或通过软件远程修复，车子可以停在工作地点或家里，我们就能修复问题。而且，我们与服务部门合作，确保我们关注的是相同的问题。

And additionally, just in Q3 Q4 of this year alone, we have opened and will open in total at nearly 70 locations. And in North America, we've significantly expand the size of each location and have doubled the size last year compared to this year.

此外，仅在今年第三季度和第四季度，我们就已经开设和即将开设近 70 家分店。在北美，我们大幅扩大了每个分店的规模，去年的规模是今年的两倍。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. I think it's, like, actually a lot of merit to having large service centers because you can have specialization of labor. Okay. You can start to approach. Yeah. It should be more factory like, where you can have dedicated lanes for particular types of service. And people and it's way easier for somebody to come expert in a few different types of repairs than in every repair.

是的。我认为建立大型服务中心有很多优点，因为这样可以实现劳动的专业化。你可以逐步实现更接近工厂的模式，为特定类型的服务设立专门的通道。这样，工作人员可以更轻松地专注于几种不同的维修类型，而不是每种维修都要精通。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Exactly. This has helped us with the base set, these heavy repairs clogging up the lane. They've dedicated lanes for different type of repairs. And so it's through a bit massively treating it like a factory.

没错。这对我们的基础设置很有帮助，这些重型维修堵塞了车道。他们为不同类型的维修提供了专用通道。因此，我们把这里当成了工厂。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yes. This is where a Tesla structure, I think, a strong advantage relative to the rest of the auto industry because we make the cars and we service the cars, whereas I think there's a bit of a conflict of interest with the dealer model and the traditional OEM and dealer model where the dealerships make most of their money on service. And so they don't -- they obviously assistance to reduce the servicing cost, whereas in our case, we are incented to reduce the service and cost because we carry that servicing cost. And we've got a good feedback with our cars.

是的，这也是特斯拉结构相对于传统汽车行业的一个显著优势，因为我们既制造汽车也提供售后服务。而在传统的OEM和经销商模式下，存在一定的利益冲突——经销商主要依靠售后服务赚钱，因此他们显然不会有降低服务成本的动力。而在我们的情况下，我们有动力去降低服务成本，因为我们自己承担这些费用。而且我们在车辆方面有很好的反馈机制。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Exactly. If you were with the factory, with the service leaders together, and send back people from the factories that field to the factory to see it firsthand. Suggestions for manufacturing as well as for engineering on design.

没错。如果你和工厂、服务部门的领导在一起，从工厂派人回来，实地到工厂亲眼看看。对制造以及工程设计提出建议。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. So I view this as a structural -- fundamental structural advantage of Tesla versus the rest of the auto industry.

是的。因此，我认为这是特斯拉相对于其他汽车行业的结构性优势。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Also do a bunch of work on the software side, not only to automate diagnostics so identifying what needs to be done to a car before it comes into service, but also automating all of the preparation work and aligning all the resources that are necessary in order for the car to be very efficiently worked on once it arrives. So the parts are there, like, the lift is scheduled, the technician's schedule, like, everything that's what I'm saying. This is what's wrong with me, and tells us tell the service center.

此外，我们还在软件方面做了大量工作，不仅实现了诊断的自动化，以便在汽车投入服务前确定需要做哪些工作，还实现了所有准备工作的自动化，并调整了所有必要的资源，以便在汽车到达后能够非常高效地开展工作。因此，零件都在那里，比如，升降机已经安排好了，技术人员的日程安排好了，就像我说的那样，一切都安排好了。这就是我的问题所在，并告诉我们服务中心。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

The car everything ready in the van.

车上一切准备就绪。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. Please fix me and this is what's wrong.

是的请修好我，这就是问题所在。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

This is what I'm trying to do now. This is what I'm trying to do. Yeah.

这就是我现在要做的。这就是我现在要做的是啊 Yeah.

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Instead of customer trying to translate the car, it's telling us directly and we're pulling that. Yeah.

客户不需要翻译这辆车，而是直接告诉我们，我们就能把它翻译出来。好的

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. You don't need most of the time, you don't need to diagnose the car when it arrives. The car yeah -- this is like, again, a fundamental technology advantage and structural advantage compared to the rest of the auto industry.

是的。大多数时候，你不需要在汽车到达时对其进行诊断。是的，与其他汽车行业相比，这就像一个基本的技术优势和结构优势。

Vaibhav Taneja

I think it's underappreciated as to what all we are able to do. And that's why because like you said before, most of our cars, except for Cybertruck, look the same. So people don't realize that it has so much capability.

我认为，我们所能做的一切都被低估了。这就是为什么就像你之前说的，除了 Cybertruck，我们的大多数汽车看起来都一样。所以人们没有意识到它有如此强大的能力。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. But, like, that's better than other cars. But they don't, like, obviously, like, super futuristic. Yes.

是啊不过，这比其他车好多了。但他们不一样，很明显，就像，超级未来主义。没错 Yes.

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

So yeah. Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, please provide an update on the semi. What will the next stage of growth look like, and when will FSD be ready?

好的，非常感谢。下一个问题是，请提供有关Semi卡车的最新进展。下一阶段的增长将是什么样的，FSD（完全自动驾驶）何时准备好？

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

Sure. So as you we posted in earnings back, we're progressing swiftly on the build of the semi factory in there, in our data factory in Reno. We've released all our major capital expenditures for that program, and we're on track to start, pilot builds in the second half of next year with production starting in the first half of 2026 and ramping really throughout the year to full production. Semi, growth will largely depend on our customers' adoption of the product.

当然。正如我们在财报中提到的那样，我们在雷诺的数据工厂内的Semi卡车工厂建设进展迅速。我们已经完成了该项目的所有主要资本支出，计划在明年下半年开始试生产，并在2026年上半年正式量产，并在全年内逐步提升至全面生产。Semi卡车的增长将主要取决于客户对该产品的接受程度。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Well, I don't think we're going to be demand limited, honestly.

老实说，我不认为我们的需求会受到限制。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

Yeah. Which I was going to say, which is like a brainer for the semi because it's really a commodity of total cost of ownership.

是的，我正想说，这对Semi卡车来说显而易见，因为它本质上是以总体拥有成本为核心的产品。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yes. Exactly. It's good. We have kind of ridiculous demand for the semi.

是的。没错这很好我们对semi的需求量大得离谱。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

In that world where it's about how much do I spend to go to excess lanes per mile, it's a no brainer.

在这个世界上，我花多少钱才能使用超长车道（每英里），这是不用考虑的问题。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

Yeah. Fundamentally, if you've got a semi where the fully considered cost per mile or per ton of transport, is better than, say, diesel truck, any company that doesn't adopt an electric semi will lose. It's not -- it's not it's not a subjective thing. It's like whether do you like just a competitive I mean, we like, we want the start we want we want to have a good old semi-truck, but frankly, if we made an oxy semi-truck, it wouldn't matter.

是的，从根本上来说，如果你拥有一辆每英里或每吨运输的综合成本优于柴油卡车的Semi电动卡车，那么任何不采用电动Semi的公司都会处于劣势。这不是主观的问题，而是一个竞争性问题。我们当然希望拥有一款优秀的Semi卡车，但坦率地说，即使我们生产一辆不那么理想的Semi卡车，这一点也不会改变。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

And this is proving so in our fleets, in in Pepsi's Partner. In fact, the Pepsi actually said last week, they're having nobody want their drivers don't want to go back.

我们的车队和百事可乐的合作伙伴都证明了这一点。事实上，百事可乐上周就说过，他们的司机都不想回去了。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. Yeah. As soon as we give anyone the electric semi, it it's like -- that's like the choice.

是的，一旦我们向任何人提供了电动Semi卡车，这就成了唯一的选择。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

It's the, what they want to drive.

这是他们想开的车。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. That's like so the -- like the most, like their top drivers will, they get to drive the Tesla Semi. It's, it's, it's the, it's the thing they want to drive.

是啊 Yeah.就像最顶尖的车手一样他们会驾驶特斯拉半挂车这是，这是，这是，这是他们想要驾驶的东西。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

It's super fun to drive. It's also very easy to drive.

驾驶起来超级有趣。它也非常容易驾驶。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

It's easy to drive and it holds ass. It's like fast.

它很容易驾驶，而且很稳。速度很快

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

Superfast. Maybe too fast.

超快。也许太快了。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Well, but I mean, like, like, ring like this. Like, you've seen, like, the videos of where, like, I think, like, Tesla Electric Semi, like, can go uphill Just pass. Speed speeding past, like, the diesel truck or even cars. So, like, it's responsive. It it's you floor it and that that truck actually hurt.

是的，没错。就像那些视频里展示的那样，Tesla的电动Semi卡车可以在上坡时轻松超越柴油卡车，甚至一些小汽车。它的响应速度非常快，当你踩下油门时，那辆卡车真的能迅速加速。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

And that's a benefit not only for the driver and for the goods, but also for safety in terms of other drivers on the road. You don't get stuck behind the semi. You're not, like in a slowdown situation in an on ramp. I mean, how that plays into, you know, FSD, which is the second part of the question.

这不仅对驾驶员和货物有好处，对路上其他驾驶员的安全也有好处。你不会被困在半挂车后面。在匝道上也不会出现减速的情况。我的意思是，这如何影响到，你知道的，FSD，也就是问题的第二部分。

All of the semis have been since the couple hundred we've deployed already, and the ones that we'll be building next year and throughout, the future have all the hardware and the cameras necessary to, deploy FSD, and we're currently training with that small fleet that we have. And as soon as the fleet is trained and the neural nets are up, we'll get FSD onto that platform.

我们已经部署的几百辆Semi卡车，以及明年和未来将生产的所有卡车，都配备了部署FSD（完全自动驾驶）所需的硬件和摄像头。目前我们正在使用这小批车队进行训练。一旦车队训练完成，神经网络准备就绪，我们就会将FSD应用到这个平台上。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. I mean, it'd be a massive improvement in, driver fatigue, because, driver safety, we've got sort of the anti-jack knifing software. You don't have to worry about your brakes overheating if you go down a down a steep hill because the -- we use regenerative, like, that that energy goes back into the pack. It's just like it's like radically better than it is in some way. It's what the drivers love it.

是的，这对于减少驾驶员疲劳将是一个巨大的改进，有助于提高安全性。我们还配备了防止车头折叠的防护软件。如果下坡路段很陡，也不需要担心刹车过热，因为我们使用再生制动，能量会回流到电池组。可以说，性能得到了极大的提升，驾驶员也非常喜欢这种改进。

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Great, guys. Thank you very much. Our next question is, when will Tesla incorporate X and Grok in all of the Tesla vehicles?

很好，伙计们。非常感谢。我们的下一个问题是，特斯拉什么时候会在所有特斯拉汽车中使用 X 和 Grok？

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Well, I mean, these are relatively small things. But, yeah, with the -- I think, we'll keep expanding, what is available in the car on the on screen and also improving the browser. So, just generally, you can access anything you want in the car. In fact, for the Tesla we're scheduled for autonomy. You actually want fully a system that is can do anything.

我的意思是，这些都是相对较小的事情。但是，是的，我认为，我们会不断扩大车载屏幕上的可用内容，同时改进浏览器。所以，一般来说，你可以在车里访问任何你想要的东西。事实上，我们计划在特斯拉上实现自动驾驶。实际上，你想要的是一个无所不能的系统。

Like, if you want to browse the Internet, if you want to ask AI questions, if you want to watch a movie, if you want to play a video game, if you want to do some productivity thing, you can do anything you want in an autonomous vehicle because you don't need to drive. So that's why the Cybercab got a nice big screen and a great sound system. So you can watch it -- watch a great movie with, it's like being in a Personal movie theater?

比如，如果你想浏览互联网，如果你想向人工智能提问，如果你想看电影，如果你想玩电子游戏，如果你想做一些生产力方面的事情，你都可以在自动驾驶汽车上做任何你想做的事情，因为你不需要开车。这就是 Cybercab 拥有大屏幕和音响系统的原因。这样你就可以看电影了，就像在个人电影院一样。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

This is why we've been building this functionality, adding gaming to the car, adding movies and other, you know, all sorts of different media applications of the car because the cars, that's what you're going to -- that's the cars will be built today.

这就是为什么我们一直在打造这种功能，为汽车添加游戏、电影和其他各种不同的汽车媒体应用，因为汽车，这就是你要去做的--这就是今天要打造的汽车。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

There's some fun games, by the way. People haven't tried it. There's Castle Doombad and Polytopia and a bunch of really fun games in the car.

顺便说一下，里面有一些有趣的游戏。人们还没试过呢车里有 "嘟嘟嘟城堡 "和 "聚托邦"，还有很多好玩的游戏。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Yes. We're constantly looking at what features to add next and we're paying attention to what's most commonly requested by our customers.

是的。我们一直在研究下一步要添加哪些功能，并关注客户最常提出的要求。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yes. Play Castle, Doombad. You want --

是的。玩城堡游戏吧，Doombad你想

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Great. Thank you guys very much. The next question is, Elon mentioned unsupervised FSD in California and Texas next year. Does that mean regulators have agreed to it in the entire state for existing Model 3 and 4 vehicles?

太好了非常感谢你们。下一个问题是，埃隆提到明年将在加利福尼亚州和德克萨斯州实施无人监管的 FSD。这是否意味着监管机构已经同意在全州范围内对现有的 Model 3 和 Model 4 车辆实施？

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

No. As I said earlier, California lost regulation. But they have a pathway? Yeah. I mean, there's a pathway. Obviously, Waymo operates in California. So there's just a lot of forms but a lot of approvals that are required. I mean, I'd be shocked if we don't get approval next year, but it's just not something we totally control. But I think we will get approval next year, in California and Texas. And for the end of the year, it will branch out be beyond California and Texas.

是的，正如我之前提到的，加利福尼亚的监管要求非常严格，但确实有一条路径。显然，Waymo已经在加利福尼亚运营了。只不过需要完成很多表格和审批流程。如果我们明年拿不到批准，我会感到非常惊讶，但这毕竟不是我们完全能够控制的事情。不过我认为我们明年会在加利福尼亚和德克萨斯获得批准，并在年底前将业务拓展到加利福尼亚和德克萨斯之外的地区。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

I mean, I think it's important to reiterate this. Like, homogeneity or certifying a vehicle at the federal level in the U.S. is done by meeting FMVSS regulations. All our vehicles today that are produced that are autonomous capable meet all those regulations, cybertruck need those regulations. And so the deployment of the vehicle to the road is not a limitation.

我的意思是，我认为有必要重申这一点。比如，在美国联邦层面，车辆的同质性或认证是通过满足FMVSS法规来完成的。我们今天生产的所有具有自动驾驶能力的车辆都符合所有这些规定，网络卡车也需要这些规定。因此，车辆在道路上的部署并不受限制。

What is a limitation is what you said at the state level where they control autonomous vehicle deployment. Some states are relatively easy as you mentioned for Texas. Yeah. And so other ones have in place like California that may take a little longer. Other ones haven't set up anything yet, and so we will work through those state by state.

你所说的州一级控制自动驾驶汽车部署的限制因素是什么？有些州相对容易，就像你提到的德克萨斯州。是啊。还有一些州，比如加利福尼亚州，可能需要更长的时间。还有一些州还没有建立任何机制，所以我们将逐州进行研究。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

I do think we should have a federal, I agree. Like, autonomous vehicles should be approved. They just should be -- it should be possible to.

我确实认为我们应该有一个联邦，我同意。比如，自动驾驶汽车应该得到批准。它们应该 -- 应该是可能的。

Lars Moravy 拉尔斯-莫拉维

Congress, if you're listening, let's say the federal AV --

国会，如果你在听，让我们说说联邦AV --

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

There should -- there should be a federal approval process for autonomous vehicles. I mean, that's how the FMVSS is worked. Federal Motor Vehicle. The FMBSS is federal.

自动驾驶汽车应该有一个联邦审批程序。我的意思是，这就是FMVSS的工作方式。联邦机动车。FMBSS是联邦的。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Yeah. So, I mean, in 2017 and ‘18, they we know it's when regulators started looking at it. And it's really kind of stalled since then, but we would appreciate and would support helping out with those regulators.

是的所以，我的意思是，在 2017 年和 18 年，我们知道监管机构开始关注这个问题。从那时起，它真的有点停滞不前了，但我们会很感激，也会支持帮助这些监管机构。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

It really needs to be a national approval is important. There's department of government efficiency. I'll try to help make that happen. And you said for everyone, not just Tesla, obviously. But just, like some things in the U.S. are state by state regulated for example, insurance. And it's incredibly painful to do it state by state for 50 states. And, I think we should have there should be a natural approval process for autonomy.

确实需要一个全国范围的批准，这非常重要。这涉及政府效率的问题，我会努力促成这一点。当然，这不仅仅是为了特斯拉，而是为了所有人。但在美国，一些事情是按州来监管的，例如保险。而在50个州逐一获得批准非常痛苦。我认为应该有一个全国性的自动驾驶审批流程。

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Great. Thanks, guys. The next question is, what is the plan for 2025?

太好了谢谢你们。下一个问题是，2025 年的计划是什么？

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

I mean, who we just talked?

我是说，我们刚才说的是谁？

Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克-埃卢斯瓦米

Yeah. Just. We I mean, basically, we talked through this. There's a lot going on. Elon already mentioned that we're working on cheaper models to come out. I mean, there are work which the team is doing to get the factories ready today to try and make that happen on --

是的，我们基本上已经讨论过这一点。目前有很多工作在进行中。Elon已经提到，我们正在研发更便宜的车型。团队目前正在努力准备工厂设施，以实现这一目标。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

And by the way, the amount of work required to make a lower cost car is insanely high. But, like, it is harder to get, like, 20% of the cost out of a car than it is to design the car and build the entire factory in the first place. Yeah. It's, like, excruciating. And it's -- and there's not a lot of movies made about the heroes who got 20% of the cost out of a car. But let me tell you, there should be.

顺便说一句，要让一款车的成本降低20%所需的工作量是非常惊人的。实际上，削减20%的成本比最初设计这款车和建造整个工厂还要困难。这真的是一个痛苦的过程。而且，关于那些成功将汽车成本降低20%的“英雄们”并没有太多电影去讲述他们的故事，但我得说，真的应该有这样的电影。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

He's a little changes. And I it's not like a silver.

他有点变化。我不喜欢银色。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. It's like there should be you the heroes who got 20% cost out of a car is like, damn, I have a lot of respect to them. It was like movie. It's like, I think you probably could make a compelling movie, but I it just no. No. Like, if you actually saw how hard it if people actually saw how hard it was to do that, you'd be like, wow. That's damn hard.

是啊，就像那些从车里拿出20%成本的英雄们一样，该死的，我非常敬佩他们。就像电影一样这就像，我觉得你可能会做一个引人注目的电影，但我只是没有。不，如果你真的看到有多难如果人们真的看到有多难做到这一点，你会想，哇。这太难了

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Just yesterday we were talking about party.

就在昨天，我们还在谈论派对。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. I mean, honestly, like, literally yeah. I mean, they've been there's a lot of but I do call it sort of like getting cost out of things. It's kind of like it's -- like game of pennies. So it's like game of thrones but pennies. First approximation, if you've got if you've got 10,000 items, in a car, very rough approximation, and each of them cost $4, then you have a $40,000 car. So if you want to make a $35,000 car, you're going to get $0.50 on average out of the 10,000 items.

是的，老实说，确实如此。我称之为“成本削减游戏”，就像是“权力的游戏”，不过是在“分分钱”。大概来说，如果一辆车有1万个零部件，假设每个部件的成本是4美元，那么你就有了一辆4万美元的车。如果你想把车的价格降到3.5万美元，那么你平均需要从每个零部件上节省0.5美元。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Every part. 每一部分

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. And it's like yeah. And then, obviously, the best is you delete some parts. In fact, we've done we have to delete a lot of parts.

是啊。是啊然后，很明显，最好的办法就是删掉一些部分。事实上，我们已经删除了很多部分。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

I'm very excited about the Cybercab design and the well, how we're rethinking the design of a car for the Cybercab, designing it all for high volume production, and then designing machine that builds the machine, that is that I think is also revolutionary.

我对 Cybercab 的设计以及我们如何为 Cybercab 重新思考汽车的设计、如何为大批量生产设计汽车以及如何设计制造汽车的机器感到非常兴奋，我认为这也是革命性的。

And it's just there's no other car company that's even trying to do what we're doing. Like, I've even heard of it, actually. In fact, I'm certain there is someone like I'm I think this this the new machine that pulls the machine, like, it's inherent it's like the it's put it's designed to be, like, 5x better than a traditional factory. Like, cycle time –

而且，没有其他汽车公司在尝试我们正在做的事情。我甚至没听说过有谁在这样做。事实上，我确信我们正在研发的“制造机器的机器”——它本身的设计就是为了比传统工厂好5倍，比如在周期时间上。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Cycle time and, like, part deletion and shipment. I don't think any other car company has the same level of, like, integration of thought that we have when it comes to, like, when you design a part from a white sheet of paper, who's going to make it? Where is it going to be made? How is it going be shipped? How is it going to be assembled into the vehicle? And, like, at any one point, if something is done in a silo, it becomes a bottleneck of either cost or time or efficiency.

周期时间、零件删除和装运。我认为没有任何一家汽车公司能像我们这样，在设计一个白纸部件时，考虑到谁来生产？在哪里生产？如何运输？如何组装到汽车上？在任何一个环节上，如果各自为政，都会成为成本、时间或效率的瓶颈。

But with the robotaxi, the development, like, we've done a good job on the like, combining all that and then, like, blowing up how it's made and saying it should be made this way and rethinking it also. It's the most efficient factory possible. That shows in our -- it will show in our CapEx efficiency when we deploy it. It shows in the number of parts. It shows in the simplicity of the vehicle, but also how it performs in in terms of, like, end user, state.

但在机器人出租车的研发上，我们做得很好，我们把所有这些结合在一起，然后，比如，把它的制造方式炸开，说它应该这样制造，并重新思考它。这是最高效的工厂。这体现在我们的 -- 当我们部署它时，它将体现在我们的资本支出效率上。这体现在零部件的数量上。这不仅体现在车辆的简洁性上，还体现在最终用户、状态等方面的表现上。

Vaibhav Taneja

Just to close-up, just on the energy front also in ‘25, we will have started with flashing up mega factory Shanghai. We'll continue to increase our storage deployments with Powerwall 3. We plan to continue expanding our supercharging network, getting more OEMs on our network. 4680 that as Elon talked about. That would keep going. And then, there's we're also we'll have our lithium refinery starting to produce. So there's a lot which is going on.

最后总结一下能源方面的进展，到了2025年，我们将开始启用上海的Mega工厂，并继续通过Powerwall 3增加我们的储能部署。我们还计划扩展超级充电网络，让更多汽车制造商加入我们的网络。正如Elon提到的，我们将继续推进4680电池的生产。另外，我们的锂精炼厂也将开始投产。所以，有很多事情正在进行中。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yes, so many things. Like crazy thing is like Tesla is winning basically on almost every single thing we're doing. If we're not running now, we're in a where their entire large companies, that's the only thing they do.

是的，很多事情。疯狂的是，特斯拉几乎在我们做的每一件事上都获胜了。如果我们现在不跑，我们就会陷入他们整个大公司的困境，这是他们唯一要做的事情。

Vaibhav Taneja

Yeah. I mean, it's a company -- there are multiple companies within the company.

是的，我是说，这是一家公司 -- 公司内部有多家公司。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. Tesla's like many companies in one.

是啊特斯拉就像集多家公司于一身。

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Yeah. Guys, just a few more. What is going on with the Tesla Roadster?

好的伙计们，再来几杯特斯拉跑车是怎么回事？

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Some things. Well, I just thought to go back to our long-suffering deposit holders of the Tesla Roadster. The reason it hasn't come out yet is because it is -- Roadster is not just icing on the cake, it's the cherry on the icing on the cake. And so our larger mission is to accelerate the progress towards a sustainable energy future, trying to do things that maximize probably the future is good for humanity and for Earth.

有些事情。我想回到那些一直在等待Tesla Roadster的预订客户。它之所以还没有发布，是因为Roadster不仅仅是锦上添花，它更像是蛋糕上的樱桃。而我们的更大使命是加速向可持续能源未来的推进，努力做那些能最大化人类和地球未来福祉的事情。

And so that necessarily means that like the things like that are deserved. We'd like -- we'd all love to work on the Tesla -- next-gen -- it is super fun. And we are working on it, but it has to come behind the more things that have a more serious impact on the -- of the world. So just thank you to all our long-suffering Tesla Roadster deposit holders.

因此，这必然意味着像这样的事情是理所应当的。我们都很想开发特斯拉的下一代产品，它非常有趣。我们正在努力，但它必须排在更多对世界有更严重影响的事情之后。感谢所有长期持有特斯拉跑车押金的人。

And we are actually finally making progress on that. And we're close to finalizing the design on it. It's really going to be something spectacular, mind and some like [Peter Telaria] we're really good friends. Peter was lamenting how the future doesn't have flying cars. Well, we'll see. More to come.

我们实际上终于在这方面取得了进展。我们即将完成它的设计，这真的会是一个非常惊艳的作品。我的一些朋友，比如彼得·蒂尔，抱怨未来没有飞行汽车。那么，我们拭目以待吧，后续会有更多消息。

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Yeah. Thanks very much. The next one is quite similar to other questions you've had. So when I combine it with the final question. So briefly, could you just detail how robotaxi will roll out? Will it start with a Tesla deployed fleet and then allow customers to add theirs on the subscription model, and then we'll Hardware 3 capable of this.

好的，非常感谢。下一个问题和之前的问题很相似，所以我将它与最后一个问题结合在一起。简要说一下，您能详细说明robotaxi的推出计划吗？它会先由Tesla部署车队，然后允许客户以订阅模式加入他们的车辆吗？此外，Hardware 3是否能够支持这一功能？

Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克-埃卢斯瓦米

Regarding the Hardware 3, what we saw with was, it was easier to make a progress with starting with Hardware 4 and on the solution and backporting to Hardware 3 instead of directly working on Hardware 3 given that Hardware 4 was more like fundamental hardware capabilities.

关于Hardware 3，我们发现相较于直接在Hardware 3上工作，先从Hardware 4着手，并将解决方案向Hardware 3移植更为容易，因为Hardware 4在硬件能力上更为基础。

I think that trend will continue into the next few quarters as well by the first solution rapidly with Hardware 4 and then backwardate and it just takes longer to those things because it's not fundamentally supported in the hardware and it's emulated. But yeah, initially working on Hardware 4, backwarding it to Hardware 3.

我认为这种趋势将在接下来的几个季度中继续，即先快速在Hardware 4上推出解决方案，再移植到Hardware 3。因为Hardware 3硬件上并不完全支持，因此需要较长时间进行模拟化移植。但初期我们会在Hardware 4上进行开发，再将其向下移植至Hardware 3。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yes. So answer is we're not 100% sure, but as Ashok mentioned, because by some measure, Hardware 4 has really several times the capability of Hardware 3. It's easier to get things to work with then it takes a lot of effort to sort of squeeze that box analyst hat Hardware 3. And there is some chance that Hardware 3 is -- does not achieve the safety level that allows for unsupervised FSD. There was some chance of that.

是的，所以答案是我们还不完全确定，但正如Ashok提到的，Hardware 4的能力实际上比Hardware 3高出好几倍。这让我们更容易实现某些功能，而Hardware 3则需要更大努力去挖掘其潜力。Hardware 3有可能达不到允许无人监督FSD的安全级别，这是有可能的。

And if that turns out to be the case, we will upgrade those who bought hardware 3 FSD for free. And we have designed the system to be upgradable. So it's and it's really it's really what just to switch sort of switch out the computer type thing. Like, the camera the cameras are yeah. They're capable. But, anyway, we don't we don't actually know the answers to that. But if it does turn out, we will take we'll make sure we take care of those who are bored FSD on Hardware 3.

如果最终确实如此，我们将为购买了Hardware 3 FSD的用户免费升级。我们的系统设计是可升级的，所以实际上只需要更换计算机模块即可。摄像头是没问题的。但我们并不完全知道最终答案。但如果确实如此，我们会确保那些在Hardware 3上购买FSD的用户得到妥善处理。

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Great. In the last few minutes that we have left, we will try to get in some analyst questions. The first question will be coming from, Pierre Ferragu at New Street. Pierre, please feel free to unmute yourself.

很好。我们在剩下的几分钟时间里会回答一些分析师的问题。第一个问题来自New Street的Pierre Ferragu。Pierre，请随意取消静音。

Ferragu Pierre 费拉古-皮埃尔

Thanks a lot, guys, for taking my question. I was wondering about, like, the compute you're, you're ramping up. So you gave, like, interesting statistics on how much you have, and you said you don't feel your compute's constrained. And I was wondering, how you are putting to work this additional compute.

非常感谢你们回答我的问题。我想问一下你们所增加的计算能力。你们提供了一些关于现有计算能力的有趣数据，并表示你们不觉得计算受限。我想了解你们是如何利用这些额外的计算能力的。

Is that a game for you of creating, like, larger and larger models, like next generation of models that are larger the way OpenAI go from GPT-3 to GPT-4, or is that more like you're set on your model and you need to throw more and more compute to accelerate the pace of learning to improve reliability.

这对你们来说是用来构建更大规模的模型，类似于OpenAI从GPT-3升级到GPT-4的方式，还是说你们已经确定了模型的架构，并需要更多的计算能力来加速学习过程、提高可靠性？

And then I had a quick follow-up really quick on your rollout in Texas and in California next year. The plan as you see today, is it to roll out, like, a fleet or two, with, cars that will start with, like, a supervisory, like, some soup onboard supervision, someone, sitting at the wheel just in case and removing the supervisors progressively, or are you aiming for going, free fledged without even a human super supervisor when you get started?

接着我有个简单的跟进问题，关于你们明年在德克萨斯和加利福尼亚的推广计划。你们是否打算先推出一两个车队，配备安全员，也就是在方向盘旁边坐个人，以便在必要时接管，逐步去除这些监督员，还是说你们一开始就计划完全无人监督？

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Okay. Well, I guess we're going to I'll answer, yeah, the first part of the question. The nature of real world AI is, different from, say, an LLM in that, you have a massive amount of context. So that, like, the you've got, case of Tesla 7 or 8 cameras, that, 9 up to 9 if you include the internal camera that that that so you got gigabytes of context, and that that is then distilled down into a small number of control outputs. Whereas it's like you don't really it's very rare to have in fact, I'm not sure any LLM out there who can do gigabytes of context.

好的。我来回答第一个问题。现实世界的AI与大型语言模型（LLM）不同的是，它有大量的上下文信息。就像Tesla，有7或8个摄像头，如果包括内部摄像头，总共9个。这提供了千兆字节的上下文信息，最终被压缩为少量的控制输出。而对于LLM来说，你几乎不会看到有任何模型能处理千兆字节的上下文信息。

And then you've got to then process that in the car with a very small amount of compute power. So, it's all doable and it's happening, but it is a different problem than what, say, a Gemini or OpenAI is doing.

而且你必须在车内使用非常小的计算能力来处理这些信息。这是可行的，正在发生中，但与Gemini或OpenAI在做的事情完全不同。

And now part of the way you can make up for the fact that the inference computer is quite small is by spending a lot of effort on training. And just like a human, like, you the more you train on something, the less mental workload it takes when you try to -- when you do it, like when the first time like a driving it absolves your whole mind.

现在，你可以通过大量的训练来弥补推理计算机计算能力较小的不足。就像人类一样，你对某事物训练得越多，执行时所需的心智负荷就越小，比如开车，刚开始需要全神贯注。

But then as you train more and more on driving different than the driving becomes a background task. It doesn't -- it only solves a small amount of your mental capacity because you have a lot of training. So we can make up for the fact that the insurance computers -- it's tiny compared to a 10-kilowatt bank of GPUs because you've got a few hundred watts of inference compute. We can make up that with heavy training.

但随着驾驶训练的不断增多，驾驶逐渐成为一个后台任务，只占用少量的心智资源，因为你已经接受了大量训练。相比10千瓦的GPU集群，汽车上推理计算能力非常小，只有几百瓦的计算能力，但我们可以通过大量训练来弥补这一点。

So yeah, that's -- and then there's also vast amounts to the actual petabytes of data coming in tremendous. And then sorting out what training is important of the vast amounts of video training video data coming complete what is actually most important for trading. That's quite difficult. But as I said, we're not currently training compute constraint. -- had you want levering

是的，然后还有大量的数据，真正达到了数P字节的规模。然后在如此多的视频训练数据中筛选出哪些对于训练是重要的，这确实很难。但正如我所说的，目前我们的训练并没有受到计算能力的限制。

Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克-埃卢斯瓦米

Like you mentioned, the training has both an large models, also the trend quicker. But in the end, we still got to take which models are performing better. So the validation network to picking the models because as mentioned this pretty large. We had to drive a lot of miles going close to. We do have simulation and other ways to get those metrics.

正如你提到的，训练中有大规模模型，还有趋势变化更快。但最终，我们还是要选择哪些模型表现更好。所以验证网络用来挑选模型，因为如前所述，这是非常庞大的。我们必须驾驶很多里程接近目标。我们有仿真和其他方式来获取这些度量指标。

Those two help, but in the end, that's a big bottleneck. That's why we're not trying to compete constraint alone. And there's other access of scaling as well, which is a data figuring office as more useful. That is an important as focusing on that.

这两者有所帮助，但归根结底，这是一个巨大的瓶颈。这就是为什么我们不单纯地依赖计算能力来竞争。还有其他可扩展的方式，包括数据整理，这也非常重要。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Yeah. So as it relates to the second part of your question, Pierre, about safety drivers and rolling it out. Each state has different requirements in terms of how many miles and how much time you need to have a safety driver and not have a safety driver. We're going to follow all those were not regulations are out there. But safety is a priority. But the goal is obviously at when we're ready and safety is there, we'll address from the --

是的。皮埃尔，这涉及到你问题的第二部分，关于安全驾驶员和推出安全驾驶员。每个州对安全驾驶员和非安全驾驶员的驾驶里程和驾驶时间都有不同的要求。我们将遵守所有这些规定。但安全是首要任务。但我们的目标显然是，当我们准备就绪，安全问题得到解决时，我们将从 --

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. I mean, I guess like we think that we'll be able to have driverless Teslas during paid rides next year, sometime next year.

是啊，我是说，我想明年某个时候，我们就能在付费乘车时使用无人驾驶特斯拉了。

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

All right. Thank you. And our next question comes from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley. Adam, please feel free to unmute yourself.

好的谢谢 All right.谢谢下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的亚当-乔纳斯。亚当，请随意取消静音。

Adam Jonas 亚当-乔纳斯

Okay, thanks, everybody. I just had a question about the relationship between Tesla and xAI. Many investors are still not clear how the work at xAI is truly beneficial to Tesla. Some even take the view that the two companies may even be in competition with each other in terms of talent and tech and even your time, Elon. So what's your message to investors on that relationship between Tesla and xAI? And where do you see it going over time?

好的，谢谢大家。我有一个关于特斯拉和 xAI 之间关系的问题。许多投资者仍不清楚xAI的工作如何真正有利于特斯拉。有些人甚至认为，这两家公司甚至可能在人才、技术甚至你的时间方面相互竞争，埃隆。那么，关于特斯拉和 xAI 之间的关系，你想对投资者说些什么？你认为随着时间的推移，这种关系会走向何方？

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Well, I should say that xAI has been helpful to Tesla AI quite a few times in terms of things like scaling it, bought it, like training, just even like recently in the last week or so, improvements in training, where if you're doing a big training one and it fails, be able to continue training and is to recover from a training on has been pretty helpful.

应该说，xAI 在很多方面对特斯拉人工智能都很有帮助，比如扩展、购买、训练，甚至最近一周左右，训练方面的改进也很有帮助，如果你正在进行一次大型训练而失败了，能够继续训练并从训练中恢复过来就很有帮助。

But it but there are different problems. xAI is working on artificial general intelligence or artificial super intelligence. Tesla's trying to make autonomous cars and autonomous robots. They're different problems. So, yeah. I mean --

xAI 正在研究人工通用智能或人工超级智能。特斯拉试图制造自动驾驶汽车和自动驾驶机器人。它们是不同的问题。所以，是的。我是说

Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克-埃卢斯瓦米

I think we've said this before also. Like, all not all AI is equal. Right? I mean, there's AI is a broad spectrum. And we have our own swim lanes. Here, there are certain things which we can collaborate on if needed, but for the most part, we're solving different issues.

我想我们以前也说过这个问题。比如，并非所有的人工智能都是平等的。对吧？我是说，人工智能的范围很广。我们有自己的泳道。在这里，如果需要，我们可以在某些方面进行合作，但在大多数情况下，我们解决的是不同的问题。

Elon Musk 埃隆-马斯克

Yeah. Tesla’s focus on real world data. And like I said, saying it is quite a bit different from an element. Because, like, you have you have massive context in the form of video and some other audio, that's going to be distilled very like, with extremely efficient advanced compute. I do think Tesla's the most efficient, in the world in terms of inference compute. Like, because out of necessity, we have to we have to be very good at in in efficient inference. We can't pretend 10 kilowatts of GPUs in a car.

是啊。特斯拉关注的是真实世界的数据。就像我说的，这与元素有很大不同。因为你有大量的视频和音频内容这些内容都会通过高效的高级计算提炼出来，我认为特斯拉在推理计算方面是世界上最高效的。因为出于必要我们必须擅长高效推理，我们不能把 10 千瓦的 GPU 装在汽车里。

We've got a couple 100 watts. So, it's pretty well designed Tesla AI chip, but it's still a couple 100 ones. But there are different problems. I mean, this is, like, the stuff that I said is, like, we're going to running in burns. I mean, it's it is running in burns. Like, answering persons, answering questions on a 10 kilowatt rack. It's like, yeah. Put that in the car. It's a different file.

我们只有几百瓦的功率。所以，特斯拉的AI芯片设计得相当好，但仍然只有几百瓦。问题是不同的。我的意思是，像我说的那样，我们在某种极限状态下运行。这就像在10千瓦的机架上回答问题。就是，嗯，把它放到车里，这是完全不同的情况。

No. Exactly. So, xAI is because I felt there wasn't there wasn't a truth seeking digital super intelligence company out there. Like, that's what it came down to. Like, they needed to be a truth seeking like, an AI company that is very rigorous about, being truthful.

没错。xAI的存在是因为我觉得没有一家数字超智能公司致力于寻求真理。就是，这就是问题所在。它们需要成为一个寻求真理的AI公司，严格要求自己在真实方面做到准确。

So I'm not saying xAI is perfect, but that is but that is at least the explosive aspiration. Even if something is politically incorrect, it should still be truthful. I think this is very important for AI safety. So anyway, I think AI, xAI will it has been helpful to Tesla and will continue to be helpful to Tesla, but they are very different problems.

因此，我并不是说 xAI 是完美的，但这至少是爆炸性的愿望。即使有些东西在政治上是不正确的，它也应该是真实的。我认为这对人工智能的安全性非常重要。所以无论如何，我认为人工智能、xAI 对特斯拉有帮助，并将继续对特斯拉有帮助，但它们是完全不同的问题。

Great. And, I mean, like, if you it also thinking like, what is like, what other car company has that -- has a world class trip design team? Like 0. What other car company has a world class AI team like Tesla does? 0. Those were all startups. They're created from scratch.

太好了。而且，我的意思是，如果你想想看，其他哪家车企拥有世界级的芯片设计团队？没有。其他哪家车企有像特斯拉一样的世界级AI团队？没有。它们都是从零开始创建的。

Travis Axelrod 特拉维斯-阿克塞尔罗德

Great. Thank you, Elon. And I think that's unfortunately all the time that we have for today. We appreciate all of your questions, and we look forward to hearing you next quarter. Thank you very much and goodbye.

太好了谢谢你，伊隆。很遗憾，我们今天的时间到此为止。感谢各位的提问，我们期待着下一季度的会议。非常感谢，再见。

2024-10-23 Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

2024-10-23 Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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