2024-10-24 Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call October 24, 2024 5:00 PM ET

美国第一资本金融公司（纽约证券交易所：COF）2024 年第三季度收益电话会议 2024 年 10 月 24 日下午 5:00 ET

Company Participants 公司参与者

Jeff Norris - SVP, Finance

杰夫·诺里斯 - 财务高级副总裁

Andrew Young - CFO

安德鲁·杨 - 首席财务官

Richard Fairbank - Chairman and CFO

理查德·费尔班克 - 董事长兼首席财务官

Ime Archibong - Board Member

艾梅·阿奇博恩 - 董事会成员

Conference Call Participants

会议通话参与者

Ryan Nash - Goldman Sachs

瑞恩·纳什 - 高盛

Sanjay Sakhrani - KBW

Terry Ma - Barclays

马特里·马 - 巴克莱斯

Bill Carcache - Wolfe Research Securities

比尔·卡拉斯基 - 狼群研究证券

Don Fandetti - Wells Fargo

Don Fandetti - 富国银行

John Heck - Jefferies

John Heck - 杰弗里斯

Mihir Bhatia - Bank of America

米希尔·巴蒂亚 - 美国银行

Chase Haynes - Evercore ISI

查尔斯·海恩斯 - 欧睿国际证券投资公司

Jeff Adelson - Morgan Stanley

杰夫·阿德尔森 - 摩根士丹利

Operator 操作员

Good day, and thank you for standing-by. Welcome to the Capital One Q3 2024 Earnings Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感谢您的等待。欢迎参加 Capital One 2024 年第三季度收益电话会议。请注意，今天的会议将被录音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Norris, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

我现在想将会议交给今天的演讲者，财务高级副总裁杰夫·诺里斯，请继续。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Thanks very much, Josh, and welcome, everyone. We're webcasting live over the Internet as usual. And to access the call on the Internet, please log on to Capital One's website at capitalone.com and follow the links from there. In addition to the press release and financials, we've included a presentation summarizing our third quarter 2024 results.

非常感谢，Josh，欢迎各位。我们像往常一样通过互联网进行现场直播。要访问互联网上的电话会议，请登录 Capital One 的网站 capitalone.com，并从那里按照链接进行操作。除了新闻稿和财务报表外，我们还包含了一份总结我们 2024 年第三季度结果的演示文稿。

With me today are Mr. Richard Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Andrew Young, Capital One's Chief Financial Officer. Rich and Andrew will walk you through this presentation. To access a copy of the presentation and the press release, please go to Capital One's website, click on investors, then click on Financials and then click on quarterly earnings release.

今天与我同在的是 Capital One 的董事长兼首席执行官理查德·费尔班克先生；以及首席财务官安德鲁·杨先生。理查德和安德鲁将带您了解本次演示。要获取演示文稿和新闻稿的副本，请访问 Capital One 的网站，点击投资者，然后点击财务，接着点击季度收益发布。

Please note that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Information regarding Capital One's financial performance and any forward-looking statements contained in today's discussion and the materials speak only as of the particular date or dates indicated in the materials. Capital One does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of this information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

请注意，本演示文稿可能包含前瞻性陈述。关于 Capital One 的财务表现以及今天讨论和材料中包含的任何前瞻性陈述，仅反映材料中指明的特定日期或日期。Capital One 不承担更新或修改任何此类信息的义务，无论是因为新信息、未来事件或其他原因。

Numerous factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements. And for more information on these factors, please see the section titled forward-looking Information in the earnings release presentation and the Risk Factors section of our annual and quarterly reports accessible at Capital One's website and filed with the SEC.

众多因素可能导致我们的实际结果与前瞻性陈述中描述的结果有实质性差异。有关这些因素的信息，请参阅收益发布演示文稿中标题为“前瞻性信息”的部分以及我们年度和季度报告中的“风险因素”部分，这些报告可在 Capital One 的网站上找到，并已提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Young. Andrew?

现在，我将电话转交给杨先生。安德鲁？

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Thanks, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone.

谢谢，Jeff，下午好，各位。

I will start on Slide 3 of tonight's presentation. In the third quarter, Capital One earned $1.8 billion or $4.41 per diluted common share. Included in the results for the quarter were adjusting items related to Discover integration costs and a small downward revision to our FDIC special assessment estimate.

我将从今晚简报的第3页开始讲解。在第三季度，Capital One的净收益为18亿美元，或每股稀释普通股收益为4.41美元。本季度的业绩中包含与Discover整合成本相关的调整项目，以及对我们FDIC特别评估预估的小幅下调。

Net of these adjusting items, third quarter earnings per share were $4.51. Pre-provision earnings in the third quarter increased 3% from the second quarter to $4.7 billion. Revenue in the linked quarter increased 5%, driven by higher net interest income. Non-interest expense increased 7%, driven by increases in both operating expense and marketing spend.

扣除这些调整项目后，第三季度每股收益为4.51美元。第三季度的税前收益环比增长了3%，达到47亿美元。本季度收入增长了5%，主要由净利息收入的增加推动。非利息支出增长了7%，源于运营费用和营销支出的增加。

Provision for credit losses was $2.5 billion in the quarter, down $1.4 billion relative to the prior quarter. The quarterly decrease was primarily driven by the absence of the second quarter's one-time allowance build for the termination of the Walmart partnership, a decline in the coverage ratio in card and a $40 million decrease in net charge-offs.

本季度的信贷损失准备金为25亿美元，相较上季度减少了14亿美元。这一下降主要是由于第二季度一次性计提的沃尔玛合作终止相关拨备的缺失、卡片业务覆盖率的下降以及净核销减少了4000万美元。

Turning to Slide 4. I will cover the allowance in greater detail. We released $134 million in allowance this quarter, and our allowance balance now stands at $16.5 billion. Our total portfolio coverage ratio decreased 7 basis points to 5.16%. The decrease in this quarter's allowance and coverage ratio was largely driven by allowance releases in our Card and Consumer Banking segments.

转到第4页，我将更详细地说明拨备情况。本季度我们释放了1.34亿美元的拨备，目前我们的拨备余额为165亿美元。我们的总组合覆盖率下降了7个基点，降至5.16%。本季度拨备和覆盖率的下降主要是由我们的卡片和消费银行业务部门的拨备释放所推动的。

I'll cover the drivers of the changes in allowance and coverage ratio by segment on Slide 5. In our Domestic Card business, we released $66 million of allowance, which decreased coverage by 18 basis points to 8.36%. Our credit outlook has improved slightly as our confidence in the stability of underlying credit trends has grown, driving a modest release in allowance.

转到第5页，我将按业务部门说明拨备和覆盖率变化的驱动因素。在我们的国内卡业务中，我们释放了6600万美元的拨备，使覆盖率下降了18个基点至8.36%。随着我们对基础信用趋势稳定性的信心增强，信用展望略有改善，推动了小幅拨备释放。

In our Consumer Banking segment, we released $50 million in allowance, resulting in a 10-basis point decrease to our coverage ratio. The release was driven by strong credit performance and increasing recoveries in our auto business. And finally, our commercial banking allowance decreased by $14 million, resulting in the coverage ratio remaining essentially flat at 1.76%.

在我们的消费银行业务部门，我们释放了5000万美元的拨备，导致覆盖率下降了10个基点。这一释放受到了汽车业务中强劲的信用表现和回收率增加的推动。最后，我们的商业银行拨备减少了1400万美元，覆盖率基本保持在1.76%不变。

Turning to Page 6. I'll now discuss liquidity. Total liquidity reserves in the quarter increased about $9 billion to approximately $132 billion. Our cash position ended the quarter at approximately $49 billion, up about $4 billion from the prior quarter, driven primarily by continued strong deposit growth. Our preliminary average liquidity coverage ratio during the third quarter was 163%, up from 155% in the second quarter.

转到第6页，现在我来讨论流动性。本季度的总流动性储备增加了约90亿美元，达到大约1320亿美元。我们的现金持有量在季度末达到约490亿美元，比上季度增加约40亿美元，主要受到存款持续强劲增长的推动。第三季度的初步平均流动性覆盖率为163%，高于第二季度的155%。

Turning to Page 7. I'll cover our net interest margin. Our third quarter net interest margin was 7.11%, 41 basis points higher than last quarter and 42 basis points higher than the year ago quarter. The sequential increase in NIM was largely the result of three factors. First, we had higher card and auto yields.

转到第7页，我将介绍净利息收益率。第三季度的净利息收益率为7.11%，比上季度高41个基点，比去年同期高42个基点。净利息收益率的环比增长主要由三个因素导致。首先，我们的卡片和汽车贷款收益率更高。

As a reminder, the card yield benefited from a full quarter impact of the termination of the revenue-sharing agreement with Walmart. The removal of revenue sharing increased the total company NIM by 12 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 22 basis points relative to the year ago quarter. Second, there was one additional day in the third quarter. And finally, we had a higher mix of card loans on the balance sheet.

需要提醒的是，卡片收益率受到了与沃尔玛终止收入分成协议的完整季度影响。收入分成的取消使公司总体净利息收益率环比提高了12个基点，同比提高了22个基点。其次，第三季度有一天的额外时间。最后，资产负债表上的卡片贷款比例增加。

Turning to Slide 8. I will end by discussing our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio ended the quarter at 13.6%, 40 basis points higher than the prior quarter. Higher net income in the quarter was partially offset by the impact of dividends, loan growth and $150 million of share repurchases.

转到第8页，我将以我们的资本状况作为结束。我们普通股一级资本比率在季度末为13.6%，比上季度高40个基点。本季度的净收入增加部分被股息、贷款增长和1.5亿美元的股票回购影响所抵消。

As a reminder, the announcement of the acquisition of Discover constituted a material business change. Therefore, we continue to be subject to the Federal Reserve's pre-approval of our capital actions until the merger approval process has concluded.

提醒一下，宣布收购Discover构成了重大业务变化。因此，在合并批准流程结束之前，我们仍需获得美联储对我们资本行动的预先批准。

BRK在2023Q1买入992万股，均价104.67，2023Q2增持255万股，2024Q2减持265万股，巴菲特对于这类收购通常持负面的看法。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich. Rich?

在那之后，我将电话转给 Rich。Rich？

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Thank you, Andrew, and good evening, everyone.

感谢，安德鲁，大家晚上好。

Slide 10 shows third quarter results in our Credit Card business. Credit Card segment results are largely a function of our Domestic Card results and trends, which are shown on Slide 11. In the third quarter, our Domestic Card business delivered another quarter of top-line growth, strong margins and stable credit.

第10页显示了我们信用卡业务的第三季度业绩。信用卡业务的结果主要由我们国内卡业务的表现和趋势决定，这在第11页中展示。第三季度，我们的国内卡业务实现了又一季度的收入增长、强劲的利润率和稳定的信用表现。

Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 5%. Ending loan balances increased $9.1 billion or about 6% year-over-year. Average loans increased about 7% and third quarter revenue was up 10%, driven by the growth in purchase volume and loans. Revenue margin for the quarter increased 43 basis points year-over-year to 18.7%.

本季度的年度购买量增长为5%。贷款余额同比增长了91亿美元，约6%。平均贷款增长了约7%，第三季度收入增长了10%，受购买量和贷款增长的推动。本季度的收入利润率同比上升43个基点，达到18.7%。

The full quarter effect of the end of the Walmart revenue sharing agreement drove a 51-basis point year-over-year increase. Excluding this impact, the revenue margin would have been about 18.2%. The charge-off rate for the quarter was 5.61%.

沃尔玛收入分成协议终止的完整季度效应推动了同比51个基点的增加。若不考虑这一影响，收入利润率约为18.2%。本季度的核销率为5.61%。

The full quarter impact of the end of the Walmart loss-sharing agreement increased the quarterly charge-off rate by 38 basis points. Excluding this impact, the charge-off rate for the quarter would have been 5.23%, up 83 basis points year-over-year. The 30+ delinquency rate at quarter end was 4.53%, up 22 basis points from the prior year. As a reminder, the end of the Walmart loss-sharing agreement did not have a meaningful impact on the delinquency rate.

沃尔玛损失分担协议终止的完整季度影响使得本季度核销率增加了38个基点。剔除这一影响，本季度的核销率为5.23%，同比上升83个基点。季度末的30天以上逾期率为4.53%，比去年上升了22个基点。请注意，沃尔玛损失分担协议终止对逾期率没有显著影响。

The pace of year-over-year increases in both the charge-off rate and the delinquency rate have been steadily declining for several quarters and continued to shrink in the third quarter. On a sequential quarter basis, the charge-off rate, excluding the Walmart impact was down 63 basis points and the 30+ delinquency rate was up 39 basis points.

核销率和逾期率的同比增长率已经连续几个季度稳步下降，并在第三季度继续收缩。按季度环比计算，剔除沃尔玛影响，核销率下降了63个基点，而30天以上逾期率上升了39个基点。

Both sequential quarter trends are consistent with seasonal expectations. Domestic Card non-interest expense was up 12% compared to the third quarter of 2023, primarily driven by higher marketing expense. Total company marketing expense in the quarter was $1.1 billion, up 15% year-over-year.

这两个季度环比趋势与季节性预期一致。国内卡的非利息支出同比增长了12%，主要受营销支出增加的驱动。本季度公司总营销支出为11亿美元，同比增长15%。

Our choices in Domestic Card are the biggest driver of total company marketing. We continue to see compelling growth opportunities in our Domestic Card business. Our marketing continues to deliver strong new account growth across the Domestic Card business. Compared to the third quarter of 2023, Domestic Card marketing in the quarter included increased marketing to grow originations at the top of the market, higher media spend and increased investment in differentiated customer experiences like our travel portal, airport lounges and Capital One Shopping.

我们在国内卡业务中的选择是推动公司整体营销的最大因素。我们在国内卡业务中继续看到吸引人的增长机会。我们的营销继续推动国内卡业务中的强劲新账户增长。与2023年第三季度相比，本季度国内卡营销包括增加顶级市场的新增量、提高媒体支出以及增加在差异化客户体验（如旅游门户、机场休息室和Capital One Shopping）的投资。

Slide 12 shows third quarter results in our Consumer Banking business. Auto originations were up 23% year-over-year in the third quarter. Our stable credit performance, which is the result of choices we've made over the past couple of years, puts us in a strong position to lean into current origination opportunities in the marketplace.

第12页显示了我们消费银行业务的第三季度业绩。第三季度的汽车贷款发放量同比增长了23%。我们在过去几年中所做出的决策带来的稳定信用表现，使我们在市场上能够抓住当前的贷款机会。

Consumer Banking ending loans were essentially flat year-over-year and average loans were down 1%. On a linked quarter basis, ending loans and average loans were both up 1%. Compared to the year ago quarter, both ending and average consumer deposits were up about 6%. Consumer Banking revenue for the quarter was down about 3% year-over-year, largely driven by higher deposit costs compared to the prior year quarter.

消费银行的期末贷款与去年基本持平，平均贷款下降了1%。按季度环比计算，期末贷款和平均贷款均增长了1%。与去年同期相比，期末和平均消费者存款均增长了约6%。本季度消费银行收入同比下降约3%，主要原因是存款成本较去年同期更高。

Non-interest expense was up about 5% compared to the third quarter of 2023, driven largely by continued technology investments and increased auto originations. The auto charge-off rate for the quarter was 2.05%, up 28 basis points year-over-year. The 30+ delinquency rate was 5.61%, down 3 basis points year-over-year, largely as the result of our choice to tighten credit and pull back in 2022, auto charge-offs have been strong and stable.

非利息支出同比增长约5%，主要是由于持续的技术投资和增加的汽车贷款发放。本季度汽车贷款核销率为2.05%，同比上升28个基点。30天以上逾期率为5.61%，同比下降3个基点，主要由于我们在2022年选择收紧信用并减少贷款，汽车贷款的核销表现强劲且稳定。

Slide 13 shows third quarter results for our Commercial Banking business. Compared to the linked quarter, ending loan balances decreased about 2%. Average loans were down about 1%. The modest declines are largely the result of choices we made in 2023 to tighten credit. Ending deposits were up about 5% from the linked quarter.

第13页显示了我们商业银行业务的第三季度业绩。与上季度相比，期末贷款余额下降了约2%。平均贷款减少了约1%。这些温和的下降主要是我们在2023年收紧信用的结果。期末存款较上季度增加约5%。

Average deposits were down about 1%. We continue to manage down selected less attractive commercial deposit balances. Third quarter revenue was up 1% from the linked quarter and non-interest expense was up by about 2%.

平均存款减少约1%。我们继续减少选择的吸引力较低的商业存款余额。第三季度收入比上季度增长1%，非利息支出增加了约2%。

The Commercial Banking annualized net charge-off rate for the third quarter increased 7 basis points from the sequential quarter to 0.22%. The Commercial Banking criticized performing loan rate was 7.66%, down 96 basis points compared to the linked quarter. The criticized non-performing loan rate increased 9 basis points to 1.55%.

第三季度商业银行的年化净核销率比上季度上升了7个基点至0.22%。商业银行的关注类正常贷款率为7.66%，比上季度下降96个基点。关注类不良贷款率上升了9个基点至1.55%。

In closing, we continued to post strong results in the third quarter. We delivered another quarter of top-line growth in domestic card loans, purchase volume and revenue. In the auto business, we saw year-over-year growth in originations for the third consecutive quarter and consumer credit trends remained stable. Our year-to-date operating efficiency ratio, net of adjustments through September was 41.7%.

最后，我们在第三季度继续取得了强劲的业绩。我们在国内卡贷款、购买量和收入方面实现了又一季度的增长。在汽车业务中，我们连续第三个季度实现了同比增长，消费者信用趋势保持稳定。到9月的年初至今调整后运营效率比率为41.7%。

We had guided to 2024 annual operating efficiency ratio, net of adjustments to be modestly down compared to the 43.5% we posted in 2023. Our view included the positive impact from the end of the revenue sharing related to the Walmart partnership and assumed the CFPB late fee rule would take effect in October.

我们此前预计2024年年度运营效率比率在调整后相比2023年公布的43.5%将有所下降。我们的预期包括沃尔玛合作收入分成终止带来的正面影响，并假设CFPB的滞纳金规定将于10月生效。

Looking forward, we now expect the full year 2024 annual operating efficiency ratio net of adjustments to be in the low 42s. We expect a sequential quarter increase in operating expense in the fourth quarter, that will be roughly in line with historical patterns as we continue to invest in our technology transformation. And we are no longer assuming that the CFPB late fee rule will be implemented in 2024, given ongoing uncertainty around industry litigation.

展望未来，我们现在预计2024年全年调整后的年度运营效率比率将在42%的低位。我们预计第四季度的运营费用将环比增加，这将大致符合历史模式，因为我们继续投资于技术转型。考虑到行业诉讼的不确定性，我们不再假设CFPB的滞纳金规定会在2024年实施。

Our view of 2024 marketing has not changed. We continue to lean into marketing to grow and to further strengthen our franchise. In the Domestic Card business, we continue to get traction in originations across our products and channels. In Consumer Banking, we're leaning into marketing to grow our digital first national banking franchise. We continue to expect total company marketing in the second half of 2024 to be meaningfully higher than in the first half, similar to the pattern we saw last year and that includes the much higher marketing levels that we typically see in the fourth quarter.

我们对2024年营销的看法没有改变。我们继续投入营销以实现增长并进一步巩固我们的业务。在国内卡业务中，我们在不同产品和渠道的新增量持续增长。在消费银行方面，我们专注于营销以发展我们的数字优先全国银行业务。我们预计2024年下半年的公司总营销费用将明显高于上半年，类似于去年我们看到的模式，并包括第四季度通常更高的营销支出。

And turning to the Discover acquisition, we're working closely with the regulators as our applications continue to work their way through the regulatory approval process. Separately, Discover mentioned in their press release and on their earnings call last week that they continue to work in parallel with the SEC to resolve comments regarding their accounting approach for their card mis-classification matter. As soon as that process wraps up, we expect to mail out a joint proxy and a schedule -- and to schedule a shareholder vote most likely early next year.

转到Discover的收购，我们正在与监管机构紧密合作，我们的申请正在通过监管审批流程。Discover在上周的新闻发布会和财报电话会议上提到，他们继续与SEC合作，以解决关于其信用卡错误分类问题的会计方法的评论。一旦该过程结束，我们预计将邮寄联合代理材料并安排股东投票，最有可能在明年年初。

We remain well positioned to get shareholder and regulatory approvals and we expect to be in a position to complete the acquisition early in 2025 subject to regulatory and shareholder approval. Pulling way up, the acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity. It will create a consumer banking and global payments platform with unique capabilities, modern technology, powerful brands and a franchise of more than 100 million customers. It delivers compelling financial results and offers the potential to enhance competition and create significant value for merchants and customers.

我们处于有利地位以获得股东和监管机构的批准，我们预计在2025年初能够完成收购，前提是获得监管和股东批准。综上所述，收购Discover是一个独特的机会。它将打造一个拥有独特能力、现代技术、强大品牌和超过1亿客户的消费者银行和全球支付平台。它带来了有吸引力的财务成果，并为提升竞争力和为商户及客户创造显著价值提供了潜力。

And now we'll be happy to answer your questions. Jeff?

现在我们将很乐意回答您的问题。杰夫？

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Thank you, Rich. We will now start the Q&A session. Remember, as a courtesy to other investors and analysts who may wish to ask a question, please limit yourself to one question plus a single follow-up. If you have any further questions after the Q&A session, the Investor Relations team will be available after the call. Josh, please start the Q&A.

谢谢你，Rich。现在我们将开始问答环节。请大家出于对其他可能想要提问的投资者和分析师的礼貌，限制在一个问题加一个跟进问题。如果在问答环节结束后还有其他问题，投资者关系团队会在会后为您提供帮助。Josh，请开始问答环节。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator 操作员

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.

[操作员说明] 我们的第一个问题来自高盛的 Ryan Nash。您可以继续。

Ryan Nash 瑞安·纳什

Hi, good afternoon, everyone.

你好，下午好，大家好。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Hi, Ryan. 你好，瑞恩。

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Hi, Ryan. 你好，瑞恩。

Ryan Nash 瑞安·纳什

So Rich, maybe to just start on credit. You obviously have lot -- you can see lots of different parts of the consumer market, high end consumer, subprime, prime, private label, different parts of auto. And you guys seem to be bucking the trend with really solid credit results, so I think some others aren't. So maybe can you just talk about what you're seeing across consumer and some of these different cohorts? And maybe what do you think it means for where losses could be headed in some of your main asset classes? Thanks. I have a follow-up.

Rich，可能我们可以先从信用方面开始。你们显然可以看到消费者市场的不同部分，高端消费者、次级贷、优质贷款、私人标签、汽车的不同领域。你们在信用方面的表现似乎很稳定，而一些其他公司没有这样的表现。所以能否谈谈你们在消费者市场和这些不同群体中看到的情况？或许你们对主要资产类别的未来损失趋势有何看法？谢谢。我还有一个跟进问题。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Okay. Thank you, Ryan. So let me just pull up and just talk first about the health of the consumer. I think the U.S. consumer remains a source of relative strength in the overall economy. You know, think about this. The labor market remains strong. You know we saw -- we saw signs of softening in the first half of 2024 and the unemployment rate picked up a bit, but the most recent data points on unemployment and job creation have actually shown renewed strength.

好的，谢谢你，Ryan。我首先谈谈消费者的健康状况。我认为，美国消费者在整体经济中依然是相对强劲的来源。考虑一下，目前的劳动力市场仍然强劲。我们在2024年上半年看到了一些疲软迹象，失业率略有上升，但最新的失业率和就业增长数据实际上显示出复苏的势头。

Incomes are growing in real terms and last month, we saw a significant upward revision of the savings rate. Consumer debt servicing burdens are stable relative to pre-pandemic levels and consumers have higher average bank account balances than before the pandemic.

收入实际增长了，上个月我们还看到了储蓄率的显著上调。与疫情前的水平相比，消费者的债务偿还负担保持稳定，消费者的银行账户平均余额也高于疫情前。

Now we see some pockets of pressure related to sort of the cumulative effects of inflation and elevated interest rates. And we are almost certainly still seeing a thing that we've been calling out for years, even really before it happened saying we think it inevitably will happen and but we won't fully be able to measure that. We won't be able to measure that along the way, but that is delayed charge-offs from the pandemic period.

我们确实看到了一些由通胀和较高利率的累积效应带来的压力区域。我们几乎可以肯定地说，这就是我们多年来一直在强调的情况，甚至在它发生之前就预见到了，延迟的疫情期间坏账冲销。我们无法完全衡量它，只能在这一过程中做出推测。这是指疫情期间应计入坏账的消费者避免了违约，得益于前所未有的经济刺激和延期还款措施。

We should remember that millions of consumers who would have charged off under normal circumstances in 2020, 2021 and 2022 avoided defaulting, thanks to unprecedented stimulus and forbearance. And these consumers were on the edge, and they got a lifeline. But for some of them, their underlying vulnerability remains. So I believe that what we're seeing today is some catching up from that period of historically low charge-offs.

我们应记住，在 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年，在正常情况下本应欠款的数百万消费者，得益于前所未有的刺激和宽容政策，避免了违约。这些消费者处于边缘，他们得到了一线生机。但对他们中的某些人来说，他们潜在的风险仍然存在。因此，我认为我们今天看到的是从历史上低违约率时期的一些追赶。

So I'd say consumers on the whole are in good shape compared to most historical benchmarks, but I do think there's some pockets of pressure that will persist until we fully work through this cycle essentially of inflation and elevated interest rates and of course for an un-measurable period of time, the -- there will be, I think this delayed charge-off effect from the pandemic. So that's a comment, Ryan, sort of on the consumer generally. You said you had another question.

所以我认为，与大多数历史基准相比，消费者整体状况良好，但我确实认为有一些压力区域将持续存在，直到我们完全度过这个周期，即通货膨胀和利率上升的周期。当然，在不可测量的时间里，我认为会有这种延迟的坏账效应，这是由疫情引起的。所以这是一个关于消费者的评论，Ryan，你说过你还有另一个问题。

Of course, I can get into Capital One's individual credit as well. But why don't I hear where you want to take this?

当然，我也可以深入谈谈Capital One的个体信用情况。不过我想听听你想往哪个方向提问。

Ryan Nash 瑞安·纳什

Yes. And it would be helpful if you can comment on Capital One specifically, but maybe I'll throw another question for Andrew and you guys can handle both of them. So Andrew, obviously, there was a big beat on the net interest margin and the Fed has begun easing. I'm just curious if you could maybe just talk about the drivers and expectations from the margin -- for the margin from here. And just given you've historically operated in this kind of 6.8% or 6.9% range. But given the balance sheet -- the changing balance sheet dynamics, do you think we've sort of broken out of that range? Thanks.

好的。如果你能具体评论一下Capital One的情况就更好了，不过我再问一个问题给Andrew，你们可以一起回答。所以，Andrew，净利息收益率（NIM）方面的表现显著超出预期，美联储也已经开始放松政策。我很好奇你能否谈谈NIM的驱动因素以及接下来的预期。鉴于你们过去通常运行在6.8%到6.9%的区间内，但考虑到资产负债表的动态变化，你认为我们是否已经突破了这一区间？谢谢。

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Yes, Ryan. Look, as I think about the NIM in the near term, I enumerated the driving forces of what led to the increase this quarter. But in the near term outside of seasonal effects, we have one modest likely headwind, which as you can see in our disclosures, is that we're asset sensitive and so that will put a bit of pressure on NIM in the immediate term, but we also have one potential tailwind, I'll call it, and that is the pace of card growth relative to the rest of the balance sheet. And you've seen the tailwind to NIM all else equal over the last few quarters.

是的，Ryan。我认为短期内的NIM，正如我刚才提到的，本季度的增幅是由一些驱动因素带来的。短期内，季节性影响之外，我们可能面临一个小的逆风压力，正如你在我们的披露中看到的那样，我们是资产敏感型的，因此这会在近期对NIM施加一些压力。不过我们也有一个潜在的顺风因素，那就是卡片业务相对资产负债表其他部分的增长速度。你可以看到在过去几个季度中，NIM确实受益于这一顺风因素。

Longer term, I think there's a few headwinds and tailwinds. The tailwind being again card even beyond the next few quarters, we've seen strong growth, particularly relative to the rest of our balance sheet. And I've highlighted in the past that our current levels of cash are likely above where we think they will eventually settle out. And if we were to see a steepening of the yield curve, that's also a good guide to us, all else equal.

从长期来看，我认为存在一些顺风和逆风。顺风因素是卡片业务在未来几个季度之外的持续强劲增长，特别是相对于我们的整体资产负债表而言。我过去也提到过，我们目前的现金水平可能高于最终稳定的水平。如果收益曲线变陡，对我们来说也将是一个积极的信号，在其他条件相同的情况下。

On the headwind side, I think there's a question of where betas go from here and there's a possibility that they could be slower or lower depending on a host of factors. We could maintain cash levels for some period of time at least, especially in light of the strong deposit growth we're seeing. And then always there's a little bit of a wildcard of the path of credit, right?

在逆风方面，利率贝塔的未来走向是一个问题，有可能会因多种因素而变得更缓慢或更低。我们可能会在一段时间内维持当前的现金水平，特别是考虑到存款的强劲增长。同时，信用质量的走势也有一定的不确定性。

And so if for some reason it stays elevated, the potential revenue suppression could be a headwind. But overall, I would say taking all of those factors into account, you've kind of seen the stability over the last few quarters prior to this one and the step-up here in the third quarter. And so I'll let you kind of weigh all of the headwinds and tailwinds that I just laid out for you.

如果信用质量出于某种原因保持在较高水平，可能会带来收入抑制的逆风影响。但总的来说，考虑到所有这些因素，你可以看到在过去几个季度的稳定表现以及本季度的提升。我会让你自己权衡我刚才提到的所有顺风和逆风因素。

Ryan Nash 瑞安·纳什

Thank you. 谢谢。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

So, Ryan, let me just -- I talk generally about the consumer. Let me talk a little bit about Capital One, specifically what we see, and this is of course, partly because of what I just said about the consumer and some Capital One specific things as well. So in the Card business, we -- you know our delinquencies and charge-offs are consistent with normal seasonality now, and it's clear that our card credit has settled out.

Ryan，让我稍微具体谈一下Capital One的情况。这当然部分与我刚才提到的消费者状况有关，也有一些是Capital One特有的因素。在信用卡业务中，我们的逾期和坏账现在与正常的季节性趋势一致，很明显我们的信用卡信用已经趋于稳定。

It's also clear that it settled out above pre-pandemic levels. And sort of there's three main reasons for this. First, we still have relatively lower recoveries compared to before the pandemic as a result of historically low charge-offs in the rearview mirror and therefore in our charge-off inventory.

也很明显，它已经稳定在疫情前的水平之上。这主要有三个原因。首先，我们的回收率仍然相对较低，这与历史上较低的坏账冲销库存有关，因此我们的坏账冲销库存低于疫情前的水平。

So our recovery rate per dollar of charge-offs has been stable, if anything, in fact a bit better than before the pandemic, but just the inventory remains below pre-pandemic levels. But it's rising, it's heading toward returning to the pre-pandemic levels. So this effect will diminish over the next few quarters, we would expect.

我们的每美元坏账的回收率相当稳定，甚至实际上比疫情前稍好，但库存水平仍低于疫情前。不过它正在上升，逐步向疫情前的水平靠拢。因此，我们预计这种影响将在接下来几个季度减弱。

Secondly, that we believe the cumulative effects of inflation and higher interest rates are creating affordability pressures for some consumers, particularly those whose incomes have not kept pace with inflation or have higher debt servicing burden.

其次，我们认为通胀和高利率的累积效应正在给部分消费者，尤其是那些收入未能跟上通胀或债务偿还负担较高的消费者带来负担。

So we think that's a factor. And you know, to your point, I'm actually not making a point about the low end of the market, whether measured by income or credit score. Generally speaking, we've seen stronger relative income growth at the lower end of the distribution since 2020. And you know, customers with the highest debt servicing burdens tend to skew more prime than subprime.

我们认为这是一个因素。实际上，我并不是特别指低收入市场或低信用评分市场。总体来看，自2020年以来，低收入群体的相对收入增长较强。而债务偿还负担较高的客户通常更偏向于优质信用客户，而非次级信用客户。

So -- and then, of course, the other factor, you know that we would point at as to why charge-offs are settling out above the pre-pandemic levels is the delayed charge-off effect that we think is still playing through. But just back -- if I could just throw in an industry point just for a second, I should have mentioned this probably earlier because this isn't really a Capital One effect.

所以——然后，当然，另一个因素，你知道我们会指出为什么坏账率高于大流行前的水平的原因是延迟的坏账效应，我们认为它仍在发挥作用。但回到——如果我可以暂时插入一个行业观点，我可能之前应该提到这一点，因为这不是真正的大众金融效应。

But I think that what we see in industry data is that post pandemic origination vintages are running at higher risk level than pre-pandemic vintages, probably because of inflated credit scores during the pandemic. And that's an industry point, not a Capital One point because and then here, Ryan, is when you mentioned that you're seeing Capital One credit, in some cases move differently from some of the industry trends.

我还想指出一个行业性的情况，这并不是Capital One特有的现象。我们在行业数据中看到，疫情后的新发贷款风险水平高于疫情前的水平，可能是因为疫情期间信用评分虚高的缘故。这是一个行业性的问题，不是Capital One的问题。而Ryan，你提到Capital One的信用表现，在某些情况下，与行业趋势不同。

At Capital One, we anticipated these effects, related to some of the unusual things going on during the pandemic and particularly the -- what we might say is the great inflation of credit scores. So we tightened our underwriting back in 2020 and '21, when credit was the best we've ever seen. And as credit normalized, we continued to make adjustments where we saw pockets of rising risk, what I was saying along the way where we kept trimming around the edges.

在Capital One，我们提前预见了疫情期间一些不寻常的情况，尤其是信用评分的“通胀”。因此，我们在2020年和2021年就收紧了信贷审批，当时的信用表现是我们所见过的最好水平。随着信用的正常化，我们继续在风险上升的领域进行调整，不断微调。

The result for Capital One has been relatively stable performance on our recent originations now for a long time, which are really running at similar levels of risk to pre-pandemic vintages. But I do think there is some underlying worsening in the marketplace that may be showing up elsewhere that some of our choices were able to offset.

对Capital One而言，这导致了近期发放的贷款表现相对稳定，风险水平与疫情前的贷款类似。不过，我确实认为市场中可能存在一些潜在的恶化情况，而我们的一些决策帮助抵消了这些影响。

So pulling way up our credit results, we feel are strong and stable, driven by the choices that we've made through the pandemic and the post-pandemic period. And we feel very good about where we are and it's an important reason that we are leaning in, as you can see in terms of our originations in the business. I can talk about auto at some point, but maybe I'll wait for another question on that.

总的来说，我们的信用表现稳定强劲，得益于我们在疫情和疫情后时期做出的决策。我们对现状非常满意，这也是我们在业务发放方面积极推进的原因之一。至于汽车业务，我可以在另一个问题中再详细说明。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please. 下个问题，请。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW. You may proceed.

感谢。下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。您可以开始了。

Sanjay Sakhrani

Thank you. Good evening. Just following up on credit, sorry. Just Rich, you had mentioned, maybe it was last quarter or the quarter before that we should start to see the credit, the delinquency improvements do better than seasonality. And I guess stabilized as you know, it's moving along with seasonality. Is some of that related to the stuff you were just talking about or do you still expect the improvement to be better than seasonality at some point?

谢谢。晚上好。跟进信用问题，抱歉，Rich，您之前曾提到，可能是上季度或更早，我们应该会看到信用和逾期的改善比季节性表现更好。而我猜，现在这种情况似乎只是随着季节性变化而稳定下来。这个是否与您刚刚提到的内容有关？或者您是否仍然预计逾期的改善会在某个时候比季节性表现更好？

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Well, at some point, of course, you know, it can be a long time. But no, let me just say that I don't recall saying that we expected credit to be better than seasonality. I think what we have been saying over the last number of months is for a long time, we said credit is normalizing. We are on the absolute lookout for the very early signs of credit normalizing, which it should, where exactly it will normalize, who knows till we actually get there.

当然，在某个时候可能会，但这可能会是一个漫长的过程。不过，我不记得说过我们预计信用表现会好于季节性。我想我们过去几个月一直在强调的一点是，信用正在正常化。我们非常密切关注信用正常化的早期迹象，这应该会发生，只是我们无法准确预测它会在哪个水平上稳定下来，直到我们真正看到它为止。

And so way back to more than a year ago, starting interestingly in the lower end of the market, we were pointing out that we see the signs of credit stabilizing, of course, we all went down that ski slope of second derivative and that continues to, you know to be a strong effect. But these are all things, Sanjay, that are going on related to credit stabilizing. And we have not declared that we think, credit is in fact headed down from here. At some point, we can in another question, go through the potential, you know, case for that.

大约一年多以前，我们首先在市场低端观察到了信用稳定的迹象。显然，大家都经历了信用变化的第二次波动，而这种波动仍然很强烈。不过这些都是与信用稳定化相关的内容，Sanjay。我们并没有表示信用将从此下行。我们可以在其他问题中进一步讨论这一潜在情况。

I want to say one other thing though, you mentioned seasonality and I put a marker down last quarter about a potential seasonality, a change in seasonality patterns. And I'd like to just kind of seize the moment and comment on this because I think all of you that are watching the credit patterns on a monthly basis, it's really important that we talk about the seasonality benchmark to which to compare that.

此外，你提到了季节性模式，上季度我就可能的季节性模式变化作了一个标记。现在我想趁此机会评论一下这个问题，因为我认为对每月观察信用模式的分析师来说，理解季节性基准非常重要。

So let's talk for a moment about how seasonality works. Our portfolio in fact, tends to have more pronounced seasonal patterns than the industry average. The second quarter tends to be the seasonal low point for delinquencies and the fourth quarter tends to be the seasonal high point. Card losses lag relative to delinquencies, the losses tend to be seasonally lowest in the third quarter and highest in the first quarter.

让我们稍微讨论一下季节性如何运作。我们的投资组合实际上比行业平均水平有更显著的季节性模式。第二季度通常是逾期的季节性低点，而第四季度是季节性高点。相较于逾期，卡片损失通常在第三季度达到季节性低点，在第一季度达到高点。

Now, we have always thought and still do that tax refunds are a significant driver of these seasonal trends. And tax refunds drive a large seasonal improvement in delinquent payments in the February-March time period, which flows through to lower delinquencies in April, May and then to lower charge-offs in the August-September timeframe.

我们一直认为，退税是这些季节性趋势的一个重要驱动因素。退税在2月-3月期间会带动拖欠付款的季节性改善，从而在4月、5月降低逾期率，并在8月-9月的时间段内降低坏账率。

Tax refunds also drive a seasonal uptick in our recoveries. Now a few years ago, the tax withholding rules changed leading to fewer tax refunds and lower average refund payments. And the IRS was paying certain refunds later than before because of fraud-related issues that they had seen.

退税也会带来回收率的季节性上升。几年前，税收预扣规则的变化导致退税减少，平均退税金额下降。同时，IRS（美国国税局）因欺诈问题推迟了某些退税。

Now, so we were watching all this, but there was so much noise in the payment data due to the pandemic that we were unsure to what extent credit seasonality patterns had changed. So in the first half of this year, as credit metrics settled out, we flagged that the combined effect of lower and later tax refunds as the more it settles out, the more we can sort of see these underlying patterns that we flag that this combined effect was likely affecting our near-term credit performance by delaying and muting the usual seasonal improvement that we see in the second quarter.

我们一直在关注这些变化，但疫情导致的支付数据噪音使我们无法确定信用的季节性模式在多大程度上发生了变化。今年上半年，随着信用指标趋于稳定，我们注意到退税减少和延迟的综合效应，导致第二季度通常的季节性改善被延迟和削弱。

But we didn't want to go to the highest mountaintop and declare that because we wanted to make sure we weren't explaining away credit numbers that in fact looked worse than seasonally what you would expect. We also at the time, you know, believed that we would see more muted seasonal increases in delinquencies in the third quarter on the other side of that effect.

不过我们并不想过于强调这个影响，因为我们希望确保这并不是因为季节性而看起来更差的信用数据。同时，我们当时也认为，在第三季度，逾期率的季节性上升会更加温和。

And we've now had several quarters to look at this and that experience has been confirmatory. And now that you know, we're in a sense, credit is coming in better than the old seasonal patterns. So we've seen both the worst side and the better side. I think we can pull up and really sort of declare this effect really seems to be happening. 2024 settled out with fewer refunds paid than before the pandemic and about 25% lower total refund volume in real terms.

经过几个季度的观察，这一经历得到验证。现在，信用表现实际上比旧的季节性模式更好。我们已经看到这一模式的“较差一面”和“较好一面”。2024年的退税数量低于疫情前的水平，实际退税总量比疫情前低了约25%。

So what we're basically seeing and pulling way up is that seasonality, which has we believe is driven predominantly by tax refunds, as tax refunds become less of an effect, not surprisingly, in fact, we're seeing seasonality that has less amplitude to it.

所以我们基本上看到并提取出来的主要是季节性，我们认为这主要是由退税驱动的，随着退税的影响逐渐减弱，不出所料，事实上，我们看到的季节性波动幅度也相应减小。

So that's, I think, the seasonality that we observe now and when we've done sort of a -- an adjusted look at last year, we definitely think that we see the new trend. By the way on the auto side, all of this happens in auto seasonality but in an even faster and more concentrated way. So I think I just wanted to share that with you. But I think what we've really been declaring here, Sanjay, is that it's -- there's just such a confirmation that, that credit is really settling out here.

因此，我认为，我们现在观察到的季节性和去年我们调整后的观察，我们确实看到了新的趋势。顺便说一下，在汽车方面，所有这些都在汽车季节性中发生，但以一种更快、更集中的方式。所以我想我只是想和你分享一下这一点。但我认为我们真正在这里宣布的是，这种确认非常明确，信贷确实在这里稳定下来。

Sanjay Sakhrani

I mean my follow-up question would be the question you were looking for later. What's the path to normalization? And I guess for credit as well as the reserve rate, we're well above the levels we were in 2019, maybe you and Andrew can tag team on that one. Thank you.

我的跟进问题就是您之前提到的问题——正常化的路径是什么？我想，这适用于信用以及准备金率。我们目前远高于2019年的水平，也许您和Andrew可以共同回答这个问题。谢谢。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

So why don't I start, Andrew. So the -- we're really, really pleased with how card credit has settled out after, quite a period of normalization. So looking ahead, while we're not giving guidance on future credit, I just want to point out a number of forces that play out. So the one force, of course is this thing that we believe so strongly is there, but we can't measure it is the phenomenon of delayed charge-offs.

我先来回答，Andrew。对于信用卡的信用表现在经历了较长的正常化过程后稳定下来，我们感到非常满意。展望未来，虽然我们不会给出未来信用的具体指导，但我想指出几个因素。首先，一个重要因素是我们深信存在的延迟坏账现象，尽管我们无法量化它。

If you kind of look at the area under the curve of all the charge-offs that sort of didn't happen, now we don't believe all of that area will play out over time. But if you look at the area below the curve and compare it to the area in a sense above the curve now, one can see that conceptually there could be still quite a bit of, in a sense delayed inventory that could happen.

如果看一下所有未发生的坏账冲销的“曲线下面积”，我们不认为这所有的面积最终都会发生，但如果比较“曲线下的面积”和“曲线上方的面积”，理论上可以看到，延迟的“库存”可能仍然存在相当一部分。

I just want to flag that effect. I think it's going to moderate at some point, but I think that effect will be with us from -- for some time. Another factor is the recoveries inventory that continues to rebuild and that should be a gradual tailwind to our losses over time, all else being equal. And then the moderating of inflation, I think, is a good guy for card credit, but still high interest rates are probably a source of pressure at the tails for some consumers, especially those with higher debt servicing burdens. And of course, the economy will be a factor too, but those are just some of the forces I think are going to be at work as credit plays out here, Sanjay.

我想提醒一下这个影响。我认为它在某个时候会减弱，但这种影响将持续一段时间。另一个因素是回收库存的持续恢复，随着时间推移，这应该对我们的损失带来一些渐进的顺风因素，前提是其他因素不变。通胀的缓和对信用卡信用是个好消息，但较高的利率对部分消费者（尤其是债务偿还负担较高的人）可能会带来一些压力。经济状况当然也是一个因素，这些是信用变化中将会起作用的一些因素。

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

And then with respect to allowance, Sanjay, obviously, we'll be allowing for growth. So that's the starting point on a dollar basis. I suspect you are more focused on coverage. So let me talk in coverage terms.

关于准备金，Sanjay，显然我们会为增长预留准备金，所以这是一个以美元为基础的起点。我猜您更关注的是覆盖率，因此让我从覆盖率的角度来解释。

First, and just very tactically, as a reminder near term, in the fourth quarter, we typically have seasonally higher balances, and those balances just have lower coverage because of the high levels of expected payments. So all else equal, and I stress that point, but that would put downward pressure on coverage in the fourth quarter. But I -- in hearing your question, I think you're looking for a longer-term view.

首先，从操作上来说，作为一个短期提醒，在第四季度，我们通常会有季节性更高的余额，这些余额的覆盖率较低，因为预期的支付水平较高。因此，其他条件相同的情况下，这会在第四季度对覆盖率施加下行压力。但我理解您的问题，更倾向于长期的观点。

So first, the coverage over time is going to primarily be driven by our loss forecast and our confidence in those estimates. And so Rich just kind of shared, the things that we'll be looking for and what will ultimately be driving those forecasts. But how the allowance then plays out relative to that, I think it's important to note that even if we find ourselves in future quarters where our projected losses are lower than the projected losses in the current quarter's forecast, we might see only modest declines in coverage as we incorporate uncertainties related to those projections.

长期来看，覆盖率将主要由我们的损失预测和对这些估算的信心决定。正如Rich刚才提到的，我们会关注的因素将最终驱动这些预测。不过，即使在未来几个季度，我们的预测损失低于当前季度的预测损失，我们可能只会看到覆盖率的温和下降，因为我们会在预测中包含一些不确定性。

But eventually the -- that lower loss forecast if and when it comes through theoretically flow through the allowance and bring the coverage ratio down as those uncertainties become more certain. And so the direction of travel in that scenario would be down. The pace and timing would obviously depend on a variety of factors.

但是，如果较低的损失预测确实成为现实，理论上会反映在准备金中，并随着这些不确定性逐渐明朗化，拉低覆盖率。在这种情况下，覆盖率的方向将是下降的，具体的速度和时间取决于多种因素。

Because you mentioned though CECL Day 1, I guess I'll end, Sanjay, just as a reminder, one other call out using CECL Day 1 as a rough proxy for a through-the-cycle coverage assumption, it's important to note that embedded in CECL Day 1 was a law-sharing agreement with Walmart.

因为您提到了尽管是 CECL 第一天，所以我猜我会结束，Sanjay，仅作为一个提醒，另一个使用 CECL 第一天作为循环覆盖假设的粗略代理的提及，重要的是要注意，CECL 第一天中嵌入了一个与沃尔玛的法律共享协议。

And so with the termination of that agreement, the roughly 50-basis point impact to allowance coverage that we recognized last quarter, I just want to make sure that as you're thinking about CECL Day 1 excluding the Walmart effect that 6.5% roughly percent is actually more like 7%. Hopefully, that gives you though a sense of the direction of travel.

因此，随着该协议的终止，我们上季度确认的约 50 个基点的准备金覆盖率影响，我想确保在您考虑 CECL 第一天（排除沃尔玛效应）时，6.5%的百分比实际上更接近 7%。希望这能为您提供方向感。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please. 下个问题，请。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Terry Ma with Barclays. You may proceed.

感谢。下一个问题来自 Barclays 的 Terry Ma。您可以开始了。

Terry Ma 马特里

Oh, thank you. Good evening. I wanted to touch on the auto business and ask kind of what you're seeing in a competitive environment and how you're thinking about growth going forward. You called out originations have been positive the last three quarters and it looks like loan growth is going to turn positive. I know you're still mindful of used-car prices. So should we expect more measured growth in auto going forward?

哦，谢谢，晚上好。我想谈谈汽车业务，询问一下你们在竞争环境中的观察以及对未来增长的看法。你们提到过去三个季度的贷款发放量都是正增长，而且看起来贷款增长即将转为正值。我知道你们仍然关注二手车价格。那么，未来我们是否应该期待汽车业务以更加稳健的方式增长？

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

So yes, thank you, Terry. You know, our auto originations, as you say, they've been -- they've been growing now, I guess it's the last three quarters. And as we stated in our prior calls, in 2022 and in early 2023, we had anticipated risk and pullback on our originations. And even as the vehicle values have been declining, the credit performance on both our front book and our back book remains very strong.

是的，谢谢你，Terry。我们的汽车贷款发放量，如你所说，确实在增长，应该是过去三个季度都有增长。正如我们在之前的电话会议中提到的，在2022年和2023年初，我们预见到了风险并减少了发放量。即使车辆价值有所下降，我们的前端和后端的信贷表现依然非常强劲。

So additionally, just talking about some industry factors. Some of the headwinds that the industry has been facing with high interest rates and high vehicle prices are now easing as the interest rates have started to come down and vehicle values are down from their peak, although both of these remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.

此外，谈到一些行业因素，行业面临的高利率和高车价等逆风因素目前正在缓解，因为利率开始下降，车辆价值也从峰值回落，尽管这两者仍然高于疫情前的水平。

So interest margins are on our -- also very important, interest margins on our front book have increased and credit has stabilized and we're seeing opportunities to grow in a resilient way. So our strategy is to lean into areas that we like and that is supported by our very sophisticated underwriting and technology infrastructure, our data-driven decisioning as well as deep relationships with our dealer network.

我们的前端贷款的利差也很重要，利差有所增加，信用已趋于稳定，我们看到在有弹性的方式中实现增长的机会。因此，我们的策略是专注于我们认为有潜力的领域，这得益于我们非常先进的信贷审批技术、数据驱动的决策以及与经销商网络的深厚关系。

So looking ahead, we feel good about our auto business, and we feel we are well positioned to grow in a disciplined way targeting particularly what we think is the very resilient business.

展望未来，我们对汽车业务感到乐观，并认为我们处于良好的位置，以纪律性的方式增长，特别是针对我们认为非常具有弹性的业务。

Terry Ma 马特里

Great. Thank you. 好的。谢谢。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please. 下个问题，请。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research Securities. You may proceed. Bill, your line is now open.

感谢。下一个问题来自 Wolfe Research Securities 的 Bill Carcache。您可以开始了。Bill，您的线路现在已开通。

Bill Carcache 比尔·卡查奇

Thank you. Good evening, Rich and Andrew. Following up on your NIM commentary, Andrew, if credit continues to trend in line or potentially better than normal seasonality from here, is it reasonable to expect revenue suppression would begin to serve as more of a NIM tailwind that would arguably overwhelm some of the NIM headwinds that you described in your earlier response?

谢谢，晚上好，Rich和Andrew。跟进一下您的NIM（净利息收益率）评论，Andrew，如果信用表现继续保持与季节性趋势一致，甚至优于季节性，那么是否合理地认为收入抑制可能会开始成为NIM的顺风因素，从而抵消您之前提到的一些NIM逆风？

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Outside of seasonality, Bill, which is an important qualifier to that, but yes, to the extent that credit is coming down in an absolute sense, suppression is highly correlated with loss rates. So over a period of time, that's what we would expect to see.

在季节性影响之外，Bill，这是一个重要的限定条件，但如果信用在绝对意义上下降，抑制因素与损失率高度相关。因此，随着时间推移，我们确实预计会看到这种情况。

Bill Carcache 比尔·卡查奇

Thanks. And then also another follow-up for you, Andrew, on your reserve commentary. In prior quarters, qualitative overlays, it seems -- and please correct me if I'm wrong, it seems like it had the effect of preventing you from releasing reserves. Is it fair to conclude that this quarter's reserve release suggests you expect consumer credit conditions to continue to gradually improve from here to the point where, you know, that would support peak losses likely being -- or sorry, peak reserve rates likely being behind us at this point?

谢谢。还有一个关于准备金的跟进问题，Andrew。在之前的季度中，定性覆盖似乎——请纠正我是否有误——似乎在一定程度上阻止了你们释放准备金。能否得出结论，本季度的准备金释放表明你们预计消费者信用状况将从这里逐步改善到一定程度，以至于支持我们现在可能已经度过了准备金率的高峰？

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

It's hard to think about the qualitative factors in isolation, Bill, because we look at the totality of the forecast and the economic backdrop. And that's just one albeit important but component of thinking about the allowance overall. So really the release this quarter was driven by the stability of underlying credit trends and just our confidence in those trends. So that's really the driver that led to this quarter's release.

单独考虑定性因素有些困难，Bill，因为我们会全面考虑预测和经济背景。定性因素虽然重要，但只是整体准备金考虑中的一部分。本季度的释放主要受到基础信用趋势的稳定性和我们对这些趋势的信心推动。这才是本季度释放的主要驱动因素。

银行业的利润很难做到透明，很多地方可以动手脚。

Bill Carcache 比尔·卡查奇

Thank you for taking my questions.

感谢您回答我的问题。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please. 下个问题，请。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自唐·范迪蒂，来自富国银行。您可以继续。

Don Fandetti

Hi, Rich, on the Discover merger, do you still feel like owning a network helps your position with regulatory approval? I mean, I guess the DOJ suit against Visa does validate that. I'm just trying to get a sense on whether or not you feel like your arguments are resonating with regulators and you have confidence in the deal closing?

你好，Rich，关于Discover的合并，您是否仍然觉得拥有一个网络有助于获得监管部门的批准？我想，司法部对Visa的诉讼确实证明了这一点。我只是想了解您是否觉得您的论点正在与监管机构产生共鸣，您对交易的完成是否有信心？

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

So I think it's, you know, this is an unusual deal in the sense that usually there is, a player in a certain industry doing an acquisition of another player in that industry and certain -- certainly part of the consideration is looking at those aspects, but the very unusual part here is two things. First of all, one is such an important part of this acquisition is buying a network, something that we don't have.

我认为这是一个非常特殊的交易，通常情况下，某个行业的公司会收购同一行业的另一家公司，当然，监管部门会考虑这些方面。但是，这里有两个非常特别的因素。首先，这笔收购的一个重要部分是收购一个我们目前没有的网络部分，所以我们甚至还不在这个业务领域中。

So we're not even in that part of the business. But then secondly, of course, it is, you know, an acquisition buying a position in an industry that is, getting a tremendous amount of scrutiny for how concentrated it is. And the network that we are acquiring, for example, on the credit card side has gone from 6% down to 4% share in recent years.

其次，当然，收购是在一个备受关注的行业中进行的，这个行业因其集中度而受到极大关注。我们正在收购的网络，例如在信用卡方面，近年来市场份额从6%下降到了4%。

And so certainly, we are making a strong case that to a regulator that obviously has shown they care a lot about competition in that marketplace that we certainly believe that this is a very pro-competitive in that sense. Of course, we also believe very much that on the credit card side, the deal is pro-competitive as well.

因此，我们当然向监管机构提出了有力的理由，他们显然非常关注这个市场的竞争情况。我们相信这在竞争方面非常有利。当然，在信用卡方面，我们也非常相信这笔交易具有竞争力。

Don Fandetti

Thank you. 谢谢。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Yes. And yes. Yes, go ahead.

是的。还有是的。是的，继续吧。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please. 下个问题，请。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Heck with Jefferies. You may proceed.

感谢您。下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 John Heck。您可以开始了。

John Heck

Good afternoon, guys. Thanks very much for taking my questions. Most of them have been asked and answered. I'm wondering if you guys can maybe give us some color on spend trends, the built business volumes. We've heard that there's -- that the consumer is being a little bit more cautious and careful or responsible with their spending as opposed to reacting to some sort of weakness or concerns about the economy. And I'm wondering what your opinion is on that and how that affects your business?

下午好，大家。非常感谢回答我的问题。大部分问题已经被问到并回答了。我想问一下，能否给我们一些关于消费趋势和消费量的背景？我们听说消费者在消费时比以前更谨慎或更负责任，而不是因为对经济的某种担忧或不安。我想知道你们对此的看法以及这如何影响你们的业务？

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

So, John, thank you. The -- consumer spending has had a little bit of a wild ride over the past few years. So just to reflect for a second on this, at the start of the pandemic spend per customer plummeted, then it surged as consumers resumed their spending and it has since been settling out.

谢谢，John。过去几年，消费者的支出经历了不少波动。简单回顾一下，在疫情开始时，每位客户的消费大幅下降，随后随着消费者恢复支出而急剧上升，此后逐渐稳定下来。

Since the beginning of 2023, our spend per customer has remained largely flat overall, although it has begun to tick up in recent months. So the spend growth that you see for Capital One is really being driven by the growth in new accounts and the spending on those accounts. And then we see just a little bit of a tick up in the last few months.

自2023年初以来，我们的客户消费总量整体保持平稳，尽管最近几个月略有上升。因此，Capital One的消费增长主要来自新账户的增长和这些账户上的消费。最近几个月我们看到了一些小幅增长。

Just to -- while I know some people have kind of wondered if you double click into the spend patterns, you know, discretionary and non-discretionary spend have really -- the growth rates of them have been very stable lately. And in fact, the mix has been stable across incomes and FICOs and is in line with pre-pandemic levels.

有些人可能会深入分析支出模式，发现可支配和非可支配支出的增长率非常稳定。事实上，在收入和FICO评分方面的消费比例也保持稳定，符合疫情前的水平。

So we think things really have settled out in the -- in the card business with respect to spend. And when we -- it's really striking when we look at banking overall and pretty much the only industry that's really growing is the credit card industry and it's been a tough way to make a living in most of the banking product areas and that of course, I think, the credit card continues to be part of a very -- a very important and multi-decade macro trend with respect to the movement out of cash and checks and really into the incredibly convenient spending mechanisms of a credit card.

在卡片业务方面，我们认为消费已经真正趋于稳定。当我们观察整个银行业时，几乎唯一真正增长的行业是信用卡行业，大多数银行产品领域的日子都不好过。信用卡继续作为一个非常重要的多年代宏观趋势的一部分，推动现金和支票向信用卡这种便捷消费方式的转移。

So I think there's sort of a macro tailwind that continues to help the industry. And then I think for a lot of us companies, certainly a few of us companies like Capital One, our strategies are very focused. It's what I call a spend first strategy so that a lot of what we do, the choices we make on the marketing side, on the credit side and really the business we want to be has a spend first lean to it and that that's another benefit to our metrics. Thank you, John.

因此，我认为这种宏观顺风继续有助于行业发展。此外，对于我们这样的一些公司（例如Capital One），我们的策略非常明确。我们专注于“消费优先”策略，这意味着我们在营销和信贷方面的选择，以及我们希望的业务方向，都以“消费优先”为导向，这对我们的指标也有很大帮助。谢谢你，John。

消费优先=信用卡+汽车贷款，这是很好的提法。

John Heck

Thank you. Appreciate the color.

谢谢。喜欢这个颜色。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please. 下个问题，请。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America. You may proceed.

感谢。下一个问题来自美世·巴蒂亚，美国银行。您可以开始了。

Mihir Bhatia 米赫尔·巴蒂亚

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. And actually, just following up kind of similar lines as John's question about spending. Maybe just drilling down specifically on the venture ex-portfolio. And I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit more about it. It's been in the market for a couple of years now. Just how much has it grown, how material is it to the overall card business? What are you seeing in terms of performance in that portfolio that's encouraging you to invest more in it. But just any additional details would be great. Thank you.

下午好。谢谢回答我的问题。我想跟进一下John的问题，关于消费方面的情况。我特别想深入了解Venture X的产品组合。它已经在市场上推出了几年，想知道它的增长情况如何？对整个信用卡业务的影响有多大？在这个产品组合中的表现如何，让你们有信心在其上继续投入？如有任何更多的细节，将不胜感激。谢谢。

Ime Archibong 艾梅·阿奇博恩

All right. Thank you, Ime here. So we launched our Venture X card in late 2021, and we're very pleased with the market response and the customer engagement so far. This launch is, of course, a continuation in our journey that's been many years in the making to win at the top of the market and that journey started years ago with the declaration. And then we have continued to just sort of every year stretch a little higher and lean in to the momentum and the brand strength that we were getting in our market position to be able to keep growing.

好的，谢谢你。我是Ime。我们在2021年末推出了Venture X卡，对于市场反应和客户参与度，我们感到非常满意。这一产品的推出是我们多年争取高端市场旅程的一部分，这一旅程始于多年前的战略规划。每年我们都在逐步提升我们的市场定位和品牌实力，从而实现持续增长。

So Venture X was a very important milestone in that journey. And also, very important in that journey to win at the top of the market was the launch of our Capital One travel portal and the opening of Capital One lounges as well as enhancements to our customers' overall experience more broadly. So and I'm sure you saw that actually in the third quarter of last year, we then launched the Venture X business card and we're also pleased with the market response and customer engagement so far as well.

在这段旅程中，Venture X是一个非常重要的里程碑。而赢得高端市场的关键还包括推出Capital One的旅游平台、开设Capital One休息室，以及广泛提升客户的整体体验。去年第三季度，我们还推出了Venture X商务卡，对市场反应和客户参与度也感到非常满意。

So I guess the way -- while we don't give out the specific numbers on this, we continue to be very pleased with our quest to win at the top of the market and both of these Venture X products are getting a lot of traction so far. And as you can see, we're leaning in quite a bit.

所以我想，虽然我们没有透露具体数字，但我们对于在市场上取得领先地位的追求仍然非常满意。而且，正如您所看到的，我们在这方面投入了很多。

But again, what I want to say is, I think one of the mistakes that card companies sometimes make is to think about a quest to win at the top of the market related to we're going to launch a particular product with these features. I really want to stress that winning at the top of the market requires a sustained comprehensive effort to create experiences, access to things that are unique and sort of something to tell your friends about, lounges, digital experience, rewards, of course, and then a very important component of this is building the brand credibility to have -- be viewed as a premium player in that part of the marketplace.

我想强调的一点是，信用卡公司有时会犯的一个错误是，认为赢得高端市场只是推出一款具备某些特定功能的产品。我想强调的是，赢得高端市场需要一个持续全面的努力，要创造独特的体验，提供让人“值得和朋友分享”的服务，比如休息室、数字体验、奖励计划等。而在这一过程中，建立品牌的可信度也非常重要，以便被视为该市场的高端品牌。

说的不错，问题是能不能做到。

So all of that is what we're investing in. You've, of course, seen quite an increase in our marketing and a fair amount of that is in service of our continued quest at the top of the market. But I would leave this one observation with you as well is that while you see the overall purchase volume growth rate for Capital One, and when we -- when we break that data up by spend segment, basically the higher the spend segment, meaning the higher we reach up in the marketplace, the faster our growth rate is, which is a confirmation of the traction we're getting, but also not only in overall volume, but the traction that we're getting reaching farther up.

我们所投资的正是这些。你当然也注意到，我们在营销方面的投入显著增加，其中很大一部分是为了继续在高端市场的努力。我还想补充一个观察：当我们分析Capital One的整体消费量增长率时，分解为不同消费层次的数据可以发现，消费层次越高，我们的增长率就越快。这不仅证明了我们在整体消费量方面的成功，也说明我们在高端市场中取得的进展。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question please. 下个问题，请。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chase Haynes with Evercore ISI. You may proceed.

感谢。下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 Chase Haynes。您可以开始了。

John Pancari 约翰·帕纳奇

Hi, it's John Pancari at Evercore ISI. I wanted to just ask on capital CET1 ratio at 13.6%. I wanted to get your updated thoughts here on how you think about buyback in that context. I know you had indicated that the Discover transaction could impact the pace of buybacks ultimately, but you still bought back about $150 million in the third quarter. So I wanted to get your updated thoughts there. Thanks.

你好，我是Evercore ISI的John Pancari。我想问一下你们的CET1资本充足率为13.6%。在这种情况下，你们对股票回购的最新看法是什么？我知道你们曾表示Discover交易可能会影响回购的节奏，但你们在第三季度仍然回购了约1.5亿美元。所以我想了解你们在这方面的最新看法。谢谢。

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Yes, John, look, there's a few forces at play that impact how we think about capital management. The first, of course, being the uncertainty around the end game rule. The re-proposal provided some high-level indications, but the devils in the details there, not to mention the uncertainty on implementation timing.

是的，John。资本管理方面有几个影响因素。首先是“终局规则”（end game rule）的不确定性。重新提案提供了一些高层次的指示，但细节尚未明确，实施时间也不确定。

And second, although it's been moderating, of course, there still continues to be a degree of macroeconomic uncertainty. But last and perhaps most importantly, we have the pending Discover acquisition.

其次，尽管宏观经济不确定性有所缓解，但仍然存在一定的经济不确定性。但最后也是最重要的，我们正在进行中的Discover收购。

And so post close, we will need to run both our internal assessment of the needs of the combined company, but we'll also go through the Fed's CCAR process to come up with our view and the Fed's view of the combined capital need -- the combined company entity's capital need. So those are the reasons why we are operating at current levels and believe it's prudent to do so. And we've been at this $150 million a pace for a number of quarters.

收购完成后，我们需要对合并公司的资本需求进行内部评估，同时还需要通过美联储的CCAR流程，来确定我们与美联储对合并后公司的资本需求的看法。因此，我们目前的资本管理水平出于以上原因，同时我们也认为这样做是明智的。我们已经连续几个季度维持了1.5亿美元的回购节奏。

And once we are back under an SEB regime, we'll, of course have flexibility to return capital as we see appropriate and you saw in late 2021 and early '22 when we had excess capital, we were returning that at something like $2.5 billion a quarter in repurchases. So if we were to find ourselves in a similar position, we understand that returning excess capital is an important part of creating shareholder value and we have the ability to do so quickly, but I go back to the forces at play of why we're operating where we are right now.

一旦我们回到SEB（定量资本回报）机制下，我们将有灵活性来根据适当情况进行资本回报。你也看到在2021年底和2022年初，当我们拥有过剩资本时，我们每季度回购的规模约为25亿美元。如果我们处于类似的情况，我们理解资本回报是创造股东价值的重要部分，我们也有能力迅速实施，但我还是要回到当前运作的原因。

John Pancari 约翰·帕纳奇

Got it. Thank you, Andrew. If I could just ask one more on the loan yield increase, up about 58 basis points this quarter, how much of that increase was the impact from Walmart for the full quarter? And was there any impact on the APR from any increase to the APR in response to the proposed CFPB late fee rule? Thanks.

明白了。谢谢你，Andrew。我能再问一个关于贷款收益率的问题吗？本季度贷款收益率增加了约58个基点，这其中有多少是沃尔玛的影响？是否由于拟议的CFPB（消费者金融保护局）滞纳金规则，你们在APR（年利率）方面做出过任何调整？谢谢。

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

And John, I just want to make sure I understand your question of the yields quarter-over-quarter, are you saying or like year-over-year yield on card, year-over-year yield in card is flat when you take into account the effect of Walmart.

John，我想确保理解你的问题。你是问季度间的收益率变化，还是卡片业务的年同比收益率？年同比来看，扣除沃尔玛的影响，卡片的收益率基本持平。

Quarter-over-quarter, it's really just the seasonality effect. There's the partial quarter of Walmart, but yield is really the seasonal effects and partial quarter of Walmart when you're comparing third quarter to the second quarter.

季度间变化主要是季节性因素的影响。沃尔玛的部分季度影响也存在，但季度间比较时收益率主要受季节性影响以及沃尔玛的部分季度影响。

John Pancari 约翰·帕纳奇

Okay. 好的。

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

And then... 然后...

John Pancari 约翰·帕纳奇

Okay, thank you. 好的，谢谢。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Next question, please. 下个问题，请。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. And our final question comes from the line of Jeff Adelson with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.

感谢。我们的最后一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Jeff Adelson。您可以开始了。

Jeff Adelson 杰夫·阿德尔森

Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. Just one for me to follow up on John's question there. Just on the late fee rule, I fully appreciate that things remain in flux at this point. But could you give us an update in your latest thinking and how you're potentially preparing for that with any offsets or mitigating actions? Have any of those actions been taken yet? And I get that you talked about taking a more mindful approach here. Just wanted to make sure that this is still the same approach you're taking or if there's anything else we should be thinking about in our models here? Thank you.

你好，晚上好。感谢回答我的问题。我想跟进一下John的问题，关于滞纳金规则。我完全理解目前情况仍在变化之中。但能否更新一下你们对此的最新看法，以及你们可能采取的任何抵消或缓解措施？是否已经采取了这些措施？我知道你们提到会采取更加审慎的方式。我只是想确认这仍然是你们采取的方式，或者我们在模型中还需要考虑其他因素？谢谢。

Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨

Thank you, Jeff. So at this point, we're waiting for industry litigation to play out to see if and when the late fee rule goes into effect. And we're not going to predict when that will happen. As we've said before, if the rule is implemented in its current form, it will have a significant impact on our revenue.

谢谢你，Jeff。我们目前在等待行业诉讼结果，以确定滞纳金规则是否以及何时生效，我们不会预测这一时间。如果该规则以当前形式实施，将对我们的收入产生显著影响。

But we also believe that the rule will have an impact on the marketplace, including competition, pricing, customer behavior, volumes, credit. The reality is that we have spent decades painstakingly building a customer first franchise with the fewest fees in the industry and extremely simple products. We believe that we've been rewarded for these choices with better growth, better attrition and better credit selection.

我们也认为该规则将对市场产生影响，包括竞争、定价、客户行为、交易量和信用状况。事实上，我们花了几十年时间建立了一个以客户为先的品牌，具有行业内最少的费用和极为简单的产品。我们相信，这些选择带来了更好的增长、更低的流失率和更好的信用选择。

Ultimately, we will work backwards from what preserves our customer franchise, our customer loyalty and credit resilience if the rule does go into effect. Relative to anything that we've done so-far, we -- really the only thing we've done is we did defer a few investments in anticipation of this rule being implemented. If the ruling never happens, we will likely go ahead and make these investments over time. Thank you, Jeff.

如果该规则生效，我们将从如何保持客户忠诚度、信用韧性和客户关系的角度来倒推应对措施。至于我们目前采取的行动，实际上我们唯一做的事情是推迟了一些原本计划的投资，以应对这一规则的可能实施。如果最终没有实施，我们可能会逐步进行这些投资。谢谢你，Jeff。

Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯

Well, that concludes our Q&A session for the evening. Thank you for joining us on this conference call today and for your continuing interest in Capital One. Everybody, have a great night.

嗯，今晚的问答环节到此结束。感谢您今天加入我们的电话会议，并对 Capital One 持续关注。大家，祝你们有个美好的夜晚。

Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克

Thank you. 谢谢。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

感谢您。今天电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。您可以现在挂断电话了。

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