2024-10-30 Chubb Limited (CB) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited. (NYSE:CB) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call October 30, 2024 8:30 AM ET
中州保险有限公司。（纽约证券交易所：CB）2024 年第三季度业绩电话会议 2024 年 10 月 30 日 上午 8:30 ET
Company Participants 公司参与者
Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
贝耶尔·卡伦 - 投资关系高级副总裁
Evan Greenberg - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
格林伯格 - 董事长兼首席执行官
Peter Enns - Chief Financial Officer
彼得·恩斯 - 首席财务官
Paul O'Connell - Chief Actuary Officer
保罗·奥康奈尔 - 首席精算师
Conference Call Participants
会议电话参与者
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
黄波 - 摩根士丹利
Brian Meredith - UBS Financial
布莱恩·默里迪斯 - 瑞士信贷金融
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
大卫·莫特马登 - 埃弗克瑞·ISI
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
源文本： """ Yaron Kinar - Jefferies """ 翻译： """ 凯伦·亚龙 - 杰富瑞斯 """
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
格雷戈里·彼得斯 - 瑞士雷曼
Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research
瑞安·图森 - 自主研究
Alex Scott - Barclays
亚历克斯·斯科特 - 巴克莱斯
Andrew Kligerman - TD Cowen
安德鲁·克利格曼 - TD 柯恩
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
格林斯潘 - 富国银行
Meyer Shields - KBW
梅耶·希尔兹 - KBW
Michael Zaremski - BMO
迈克尔·扎雷姆斯基 - 加拿大蒙特利尔银行
Operator 操作员
Thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Chubb Limited Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.
感谢您的耐心等待。欢迎参加 2024 年第三季度 Chubb Limited 业绩电话会议。所有线路均已静音，以防止任何背景噪音。发言结束后，将进入问答环节。[操作员指示] 谢谢。
I’d now like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.
我现在将电话转交给投资者关系部高级副总裁凯伦·贝耶，您可以开始了。
Karen Beyer 贝耶尔·卡伦
Thank you and welcome everyone to our September 30, 2024 third quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities and economic market conditions which are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement which are available on our website@investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.
感谢各位在 2024 年 9 月 30 日参加我们第三季度业绩电话会议。今天的报告将包含前瞻性陈述，包括关于公司业绩、定价和业务组合、增长机会以及经济市场状况的陈述，这些陈述受风险和不确定性影响，实际结果可能与预期有较大差异。请参阅我们最近的 SEC 文件、业绩公告和财务补充资料，这些资料可在我们的网站上找到，网址为@investors.chubb.com，以了解更多可能影响这些因素的信息。
We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings Press release and financial supplements. Now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer, and then we'll take your questions.
今天我们还将提及非 GAAP 财务指标，这些指标与最直接的 GAAP 可比指标的调整以及相关细节已在我们的盈利新闻稿和财务补充材料中提供。现在，我将介绍我们的演讲者。首先是我们董事长兼首席执行官 Evan Greenberg，接着是我们的首席财务官 Peter Enns，然后我们将回答您的问题。
Also with us to assist with your questions today are several members of our management team and now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.
今天协助您解答问题的还有我们管理团队的多位成员，现在我很高兴将电话交给 Evan。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Good morning. As you've seen, we had another really great quarter with strong double digit growth in both P&C underwriting and investment income leading to core operating EPS growth of over 15.5%. Global P&C premium revenue, which excludes agriculture, grew 7.6% or 8.5% in constant dollars, which is the clearer way to view intrinsic growth and once again reflected the broad and diversified nature of our company and the opportunities we're capitalizing on around the world with strong contributions from our North America P&C International, P&C and life insurance businesses.
早上好。正如您所见，我们刚刚结束的季度表现非常出色，财产险和责任险承保以及投资收益均实现了两位数的强劲增长，核心运营每股收益增长超过 15.5%。全球财产险保费收入（不包括农业），增长了 7.6%，或按不变货币计算增长了 8.5%，这是更清晰地看待内在增长的方式，再次反映了我们公司的广泛多元化以及我们在全球范围内把握的机遇，其中北美财产险国际、财产险和人寿保险业务贡献突出。
Core operating income for the quarter was $2.3 billion, up 14.3%. Earnings for the year are currently at record levels with net and operating income up 16.9% and 13.8% respectively. The three sources of earnings growth, P&C underwriting, investment income and life income each delivered a strong result.
本季度核心运营收入为 23 亿美元，同比增长 14.3%。年度收益目前达到历史最高水平，净收入和运营收入分别增长 16.9%和 13.8%。财产与责任保险承保、投资收益和终身收益这三个收益增长来源均取得了强劲的表现。
Our published combined ratio for the quarter was 87.7% with P&C underwriting income of 1.5 billion up over 11.5% despite an active quarter for the industry globally in terms of natural catastrophes, hurricanes, floods, fires, tornadoes and other severe convective storm activity.
我们本季度发布的综合比率为 87.7%，尽管全球范围内行业在自然灾害、飓风、洪水、火灾、龙卷风以及其他严重对流风暴活动方面非常活跃，但财产与责任保险的承保收入达到 150 亿元，同比增长 11.5%。
On an ex-cat current accident year basis, a secondary measure of underwriting, we produced record underwriting income of $2 billion up 11.5% with a combined ratio of 83.4%. For the year, we have produced record underwriting income on both a published and current accident year basis. As a company in the business of risk, we pride ourselves on being world class underwriters. It's who we are.
在剔除巨灾因素的当期事故年度基础上，作为次要的承保衡量指标，我们实现了创纪录的20亿美元承保利润，同比增长11.5%，综合成本率为83.4%。今年，我们在公布的基础和当期事故年度基础上都创造了创纪录的承保利润。作为一家风险经营公司，我们以成为世界一流的承保人而自豪。这是我们的核心。
We're also asset managers with an excellent long-term record of invested asset allocation and risk adjusted returns. Our invested asset now stands at 151 billion and it will continue to grow as a consequence of our basic business of insurance. For the quarter, adjusted net investment income topped 1.6 billion up 15.9%. Our fixed income portfolio yield is 4.9 versus 4.7 a year ago and our current new money rate is averaging 5.5%. In our judgment, given the broad based health of the U.S. economy and the pattern of inflation when one reads past the headlines, the Fed will likely take a reasonably cautious approach to lowering rates.
我们也是资产管理人，拥有卓越的长期投资资产配置和风险调整后的回报记录。目前我们的投资资产总额达到 1510 亿元，并将随着我们基本业务——保险业务的增长而持续增长。本季度，调整后的净投资收入达到 16 亿元，同比增长 15.9%。我们的固定收益投资组合收益率达到 4.9%，而去年同期为 4.7%，目前新增资金的平均收益率约为 5.5%。我们认为，鉴于美国经济的广泛健康状况以及透过新闻标题看到的通货膨胀模式，美联储可能会采取相对谨慎的降息策略。
Given the size and continued growth of our federal deficit, which is simply unsustainable, we believe the yield curve will steepen and that too will support our future reinvestment rate.
鉴于我国联邦赤字的规模和持续增长，这种状况显然是不可持续的，我们相信收益率曲线将变得更加陡峭，这将支持我们未来的再投资利率。
We remain confident in our ability to reinvest our cash flows at rates that will continue to accrete to the overall portfolio yield. Life insurance segment income of $284 million was ahead of plan and while you know it's our policy to generally refrain from guidance, we are well on pace to exceed our life division income target of a billion for the year. Our annualized core operating ROE for the quarter was 13.9% with a return on tangible equity of 21.7. Peter will have more to say about financial items.
我们对我们将现金流再投资的能力充满信心，这些投资将继续增加整体投资组合的收益率。人寿保险业务收入为 2.84 亿美元，超出预期计划。虽然您知道我们通常不提供指导，但我们正稳步朝着实现今年 10 亿美元的人寿业务收入目标迈进。本季度我们的年度化核心运营净资产收益率（ROE）为 13.9%，有形净资产收益率为 21.7%。彼得将就财务事项有更多发言。
Turning to growth, pricing and the rate environment, Global P&C net premiums, which excludes agriculture increased 7.6 in the quarter were again 8.5 in constant dollar with commercial premiums up 8.1% and consumer up 9.4%.
转向增长、定价和利率环境，全球财产与责任险（P&C）净保费（不包括农业）在季度内增长了 7.6%，以不变价格计算再次达到 8.5%，其中商业保费上涨 8.1%，消费者保费上涨 9.4%。
Again, growth was global and broad based geographically by product and customer segment. North America, Europe, Asia and Latin America all contributed favorably. Life premiums grew 10.6% in constant dollar with growth of 10 in international life and 15 in combined North America. In terms of the commercial P&C rate environment, market trends were consistent with those of the previous quarter. Overall conditions are favorable in both property which is incrementally more competitive in certain areas and casualty which is incrementally firmer.
再次，增长是全球性的，地理分布广泛，按产品和客户细分。北美、欧洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲都做出了积极贡献。生命保险保费在固定货币中增长了 10.6%，国际生命保险增长 10%，北美综合增长 15%。在商业财产和意外伤害保险的费率环境中，市场趋势与上一季度一致。总体而言，在特定地区的财产保险逐渐更具竞争力，以及意外伤害保险逐渐更加稳固，条件都是有利可图的。
Loss cost inflation remains steady and within what we have contemplated in our pricing and reserving pricing for both remains ahead of loss costs. Property has become more competitive in the large account and EMS segments while middle market property pricing was in fact up over prior quarter are large in all three segments of the market.
损失成本通胀保持稳定，且在我们的定价和准备金定价中，都领先于损失成本。在大型账户和 EMS 细分市场中，物业竞争变得更加激烈，而中端市场物业定价实际上在上一季度有所上升，在市场的三个细分领域都表现强劲。
Our property book is well priced and terms and conditions remain steady. As with prior quarter casualty is firming in the areas that need rate and we see this trend in casualty enduring. Overall, our casualty rate and price were up over prior quarter. Let me give you a little more color by division. Beginning with North America premiums excluding agriculture were up 7.8% and consisted of 10% growth in personal insurance and 7.2 in commercial with P&C lines up nearly 10% and financial lines down about 5%. We wrote more than $1.2 billion of new business up over 18% versus prior year and our renewal retention rate on a policy count basis is 89.6%.
我们的财产保险手册定价合理，条款和条件保持稳定。与上一季度相比，受费率影响的地区损失率正在稳固，我们预计这一趋势将持续。总体而言，我们的损失率和价格较上一季度有所上升。让我按部门详细说明一下。首先，北美地区的保险费（不包括农业）上涨了 7.8%，其中个人保险增长 10%，商业保险增长 7.2%，财产险和责任险增长近 10%，而金融险下降约 5%。我们承保了超过 12 亿美元的新业务，同比增长 18%，并且我们的保单续保率按保单数量计算为 89.6%。
Again, both speak to the reasonably disciplined tone of the market, the power of Chubb and our excellent operating performance. Premiums in our major accounts and specialty division increased 7.2 with P&C up 9.5% and financial lines down over 6%. Within major and specialty, our E&S business grew 11% with strong contributions for both property and casualty related lines.
再次，两者都反映了市场的相对有序的基调，以及 Chubb 的力量和我们的出色运营表现。我们主要账户和特色部门的保费增长了 7.2%，其中 P&C 增长了 9.5%，而金融线下降了超过 6%。在主要和特色部门中，我们的 E&S 业务增长了 11%，财产和责任相关险种贡献强劲。
Premium in our middle market division increased just under 7% with P&C up 10.7% and financial lines down 5.7. Again, the underwriting environment in North America is generally favorable and rational.
我们的中端市场部门保费增长接近 7%，其中财产险增长 10.7%，金融险下降 5.7%。再次强调，北美地区的承保环境总体上是有利的且理性的。
Financial lines aside, pricing for property and casualty excluding financial lines and workers comp was up 9.9% with rates up 8% and exposure change of 1.8 again with both rates and pricing up from second quarter.
除了金融线之外，财产险和责任险（不包括金融线和工人补偿险）的价格上涨了 9.9%，费率上涨了 8%，风险敞口变化为 1.8%，费率和价格均较第二季度有所上升。
Financial alliance pricing was down 3.2% with rates down about 3.4%. In workers comp which includes both primary and large account risk management pricing was up 4.2% with rates up 1.4 and exposure up 2.8. Breaking down P&C pricing further, property pricing was up 6.7% with rate of 3.7% and exposure change of 2.9%.
金融联盟定价下跌 3.2%，利率下降约 3.4%。在包括主账户和大型账户风险管理在内的工人赔偿保险中，定价上涨 4.2%，利率上涨 1.4%，风险敞口上涨 2.8%。进一步分解财产与责任保险（P&C）定价，财产保险定价上涨 6.7%，利率上涨 3.7%，风险敞口变化为 2.9%。
Casualty pricing in North America was up 12.7% well in excess of loss costs with rates up 11.9% and exposure 0.7%. Our loss cost in North America again remains stable, no change and in line with what we contemplate in our loss events.
北美意外损失定价上涨 12.7%，远超损失成本，费率上涨 11.9%，风险敞口增加 0.7%。我们北美地区的损失成本保持稳定，没有变化，与我们在损失事件中预期的相符。
In agriculture, where we are the market leader, we gained increased market share and wrote more policies insuring more farmers and fields. Though premiums were down from prior year primarily due to lower commodity prices than last year. Commodity prices are used to price the premiums we charge farmers.
在农业领域，我们作为市场领导者，市场份额有所增长，并制定了更多政策，为更多农民和农田提供保险。尽管由于商品价格低于去年，保险费率有所下降。商品价格用于确定我们向农民收取的保险费率。
Far more importantly, our crop underwriting results this quarter were excellent and from everything we know now, 24 is shaping up to be a very good underwriting year. On the consumer side of North America, our high net worth personal lines business had another outstanding quarter with premium growth of 10% including new business growth exceeding 25%. Premium growth for our true high net worth segments, the group that seeks our brand for the differentiated coverage and service we're known for was 16.8%. Our homeowners pricing was up 13.7% in the quarter and ahead of loss cost trend which remained steady.
更重要的是，本季度我们的作物保险承保结果非常出色，根据目前所知，2024 年将成为一个非常好的承保年。在北美消费者业务方面，我们高端个人保险业务再次取得了卓越的成绩，保费增长率为 10%，其中新业务增长超过 25%。我们真正的高端客户群体，即寻求我们品牌所提供的差异化覆盖和服务的那一群人，保费增长率达到了 16.8%。本季度我们的房主保险定价上涨了 13.7%，并且领先于损失成本趋势，后者保持稳定。
Turning to our international general insurance operations, it was a decent quarter. Net Premiums were up 4.9% or 7.5% in constant dollars. Our international commercial business grew 6.7% while consumer was up 8.5%.
转向我们的国际一般保险业务，本季度表现不错。净保费增长 4.9%，按不变美元计算增长 7.5%。我们的国际商业业务增长 6.7%，而消费业务增长 8.5%。
Asia Pacific led the way with premiums up 9.2%. Latin America grew over 7.5% while Europe grew over 7% with the continent of Europe up 8.7%.
亚太地区领先，保费增长 9.2%。拉丁美洲增长超过 7.5%，而欧洲增长超过 7%，其中欧洲大陆增长 8.7%。
Premiums in our international retail commercial P&C business were 6.5% in constant dollar. P&C lines were up almost 11% and financial lines were down 10%. It is worth noting adjusting for a one time premium benefit we received in the third quarter of last year underlying growth was over 14% in P&C lines internationally with financial lines down 3.8%. We continue to achieve positive rate to exposure across our international retail commercial portfolio with P&C lines pricing up 6.3% and financial lines pricing down 3.5%.
国际零售商业财产险和责任险业务的保费在固定货币中为 6.5%。财产险业务增长了近 11%，而金融险业务下降了 10%。值得注意的是，调整去年第三季度一次性保费收益后，国际财产险业务的潜在增长率超过 14%，而金融险业务下降 3.8%。我们继续在国际零售商业组合中实现正的费率与风险敞口，财产险业务定价上涨 6.3%，金融险业务定价下降 3.5%。
Premiums in our international wholesale business grew about 8% in constant dollar. As is typical, the London wholesale market is growing more competitive and frankly for me is exhibiting classic London underwriter and broker behavior. Generally speaking, underwriting prosperity likely won't endure over time and London will underperform in due course.
我们的国际批发业务保费在固定汇率下增长了约 8%。正如惯例，伦敦批发市场正变得越来越具有竞争力，坦白说，它正展现出典型的伦敦承保人和经纪人的行为。一般来说，承保繁荣不可能长期持续，伦敦市场最终将表现不佳。
Except for those few real underwriters who know how to manage what is simply a trade. I have seen this movie many times. Our international personal lines business had an excellent quarter with growth of 12.7% led by Asia Pacific and Latin America. And our global reinsurance business had a strong quarter. Premiums were up about 35%.
除了那些真正懂得如何管理纯粹是交易的少数几位承保人，我看过很多次这样的电影。我们的国际个人业务季度表现优秀，增长率为 12.7%，亚太地区和拉丁美洲引领增长。而且我们的全球再保险业务也取得了强劲的季度表现。保费增长了约 35%。
We had a combined ratio of 94.4% which included a more active cat loss quarter. Again, in our international life insurance business which is fundamentally Asia, premiums and deposits were up about 21% in constant dollar. International life earnings grew over 9% in the quarter in constant dollar.
我们综合比率达到了 94.4%，其中包括了一个更活跃的自然灾害损失季度。再次强调，在我们的国际人寿保险业务中，该业务本质上是亚洲业务，保费和存款在固定汇率下增长了约 21%。国际人寿保险的收益在季度内固定汇率下增长了超过 9%。
So that's a lot of news and in summary we had another excellent quarter and having a record earnings year. While we're in the risk business and volatility is a natural feature, we are very confident in our ability to continue growing our operating earnings and EPS at a superior rate. P&C revenue growth and underwriting margins, investment income and life income.
那么，有很多新闻，总结来说，我们又一个季度表现卓越，并且实现了创纪录的盈利年份。虽然我们从事的是风险业务，波动性是自然特征，但我们非常自信能够继续以更优越的速率增长我们的运营收益和每股收益。财产与责任保险收入增长和承保利润率，投资收益和生命保险收益。
I'm going to turn the call over to Peter and then we're going to come back and take your question.
我接下来要把电话交给彼得，然后我们会回来回答您的问题。
Peter Enns 彼得·恩斯
Good morning. As you have just heard from Evan, despite an elevated level of industry wide cats, we had another strong quarter that generated adjusted operating cash flow for the quarter and through nine months of $4.6 billion and a record $11.7 billion respectively. Our results further strengthened our overall financial position, ending the quarter with all-time highs in book value of nearly $66 billion and invested assets of $151 billion.
早上好。正如您刚刚从 Evan 那里听到的，尽管整个行业自然灾害的数量有所上升，但我们又度过了一个强劲的季度，本季度和前九个月分别产生了 46 亿美元的调整后经营活动现金流和 117 亿美元的创纪录现金流。我们的业绩进一步巩固了我们的整体财务状况，本季度结束时，我们的账面价值达到了近 660 亿美元的历史最高水平，投资资产达到了 1510 亿美元。
On July 31st we issued $700 million of 5 year debt and $600 million of 10 year debt at an attractive weighted average cost of under 5%. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes including a repayment of 700 million of euro denominated debt due in December. We returned $782 million of capital to capital shareholders this quarter including $413 million in share repurchases and $369 million in dividends and $2.4 billion in total. Through nine months, book and tangible book value per share excluding AOCI increased 2.7% and 4.3% respectively for the quarter and 7.7% and 10.6% respectively year-to-date benefiting from core operating income partially offset by the capital returned to shareholders. Core operating ROE and return on tangible equity were 13.6% and a record 21.5% respectively year-to-date.
在7月31日，我们发行了7亿美元的5年期债务和6亿美元的10年期债务，平均加权成本低于5%，非常具有吸引力。所得资金将用于一般公司用途，包括偿还12月份到期的7亿欧元债务。本季度，我们向股东返还了7.82亿美元的资本，其中包括4.13亿美元的股票回购和3.69亿美元的股息，总计24亿美元。九个月以来，扣除其他综合收益（AOCI）后，每股账面和有形账面价值分别增长了2.7%和4.3%（季度），以及7.7%和10.6%（年初至今），这得益于核心经营收入，部分被返还给股东的资本所抵消。核心经营ROE和有形权益回报率年初至今分别为13.6%和创纪录的21.5%。
Turning to investments, our A rated portfolio produced adjusted net investment income of $1.64 billion which included approximately $40 million of higher than normal income from private equity. Regarding underwriting results, the quarter included pretax catastrophe losses of $765 million of which $250 million was related to Hurricane Helene and the balance principally from weather related events split 70% in the U.S. and 30% internationally.
关于投资，我们的 A 级投资组合产生了 16.4 亿美元的调整后净投资收益，其中包括约 4000 万美元高于正常水平的私募股权收入。至于承保结果，本季度包括 7.65 亿美元的税前灾难损失，其中 2.5 亿美元与飓风赫尔南有关，其余部分主要来自与天气相关的事件，其中 70%发生在美国，30%发生在国际。
Prior period development in the quarter interactive companies was a favorable $299 million pretax with favorable development of $358 million in short tail lines primarily from property and $59 million of unfavorable development in long tail lines which was primarily from general casualty. Our corporate runoff portfolio had adverse development of $55 million primarily environmental liability related.
本季度，互动公司产生了2.99亿美元的税前有利发展，其中短期业务有3.58亿美元的有利发展，主要来自财产险，而长期业务则有5900万美元的不利发展，主要来自一般责任险。我们的公司停止运营组合产生了5500万美元的不利发展，主要与环境责任相关。
Our paid to incurred ratio for the quarter and the year was 77%. Our core effective tax rate was 17.7% for the quarter which is below our previously guided range due to shifts in the mix of income as well as certain discrete tax benefits recorded in the quarter. We expect our fourth quarter core effective tax rate to now be between 19% and 19.25% [ph] with the full year between 18% and 18.25% [ph]. We expect to provide guidance on the 2025 tax rate as part of our fourth quarter earnings at the end of January.
本季度及全年的收入与成本比率为 77%。本季度核心有效税率为 17.7%，低于之前预期的范围，这主要由于收入结构的变化以及本季度记录的某些特定税收优惠。我们预计第四季度核心有效税率现在将在 19%至 19.25%之间，全年将在 18%至 18.25%之间。我们预计将在 1 月底的第四季度收益报告中提供 2025 年税率指引。
I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.
我现在将电话转交给 Karen。
Karen Beyer 贝耶尔·卡伦
Thank you. And at this point we're happy to take your questions.
谢谢。现在我们很高兴回答您的问题。
Question-And-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Bob Huang from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
[操作员指示] 您的第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的黄博先生，您的线路已开通。
Bob Huang 黄波
Good morning. So first question is on the North America commercial. I think if we like you said before, right. Pricing, Ex Financial Alliance, Ex Workers comp continue to be very strong over the last few quarters and you had really incredible margins in this business. Just given the pricing and the growth, should we expect growth to accelerate from here or how should we think about growth in this business? Ex Financial Alliance, Ex Workers comp going forward?
早上好。首先，关于北美商业广告的问题。我想，正如您之前所说的，对吧。除金融联盟、除工人赔偿金之外，过去几个季度我们的定价一直非常强劲，在这个业务中，您确实实现了令人难以置信的利润率。鉴于定价和增长，我们应该期待增长从现在开始加速吗？还是我们应该如何思考除金融联盟、除工人赔偿金之外的业务增长前景？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Yes. First of all, we don't give forward guidance, as you know. So I'm not going to answer that in a specific way. You see the amount of new business we run, you see our retention rate. You see we're in a healthy market and we're in an underwriter's market. Risk selection, structure of risk, how you structure it and pricing matter. All underwriters aren't created equal.
是的。首先，我们知道我们不提供前瞻性指导。所以，我不会具体回答这个问题。你看我们开展的新业务量，你看我们的客户保留率。你看我们处于一个健康的市场，并且我们处于一个承保人市场。风险选择、风险结构、如何构建风险以及定价都很重要。并不是所有的承保人都是一样的。
So we compete for business. And some areas of business have become more competitive, naturally. Speaking to property, I'm confident when I look forward at Chubb's ability to continue to grow above trend, when I look at longer term trend and as I look forward over a period of time, and I'll leave it at that.
所以我们竞争商业。一些商业领域自然变得更加竞争激烈。谈到房地产，我对于Chubb能够持续超越趋势增长的能力充满信心，当我观察长期趋势，当我展望一段时间后，我就说到这里。
利润增长大于收入增长的问题没有解释。
Bob Huang 黄波
Great, thank you. Second question is on the international business. Apology in advance if I misinterpreted your commentary, but it sounded like what you're saying is that in London there could be more competition. Does that imply that a lot of the international growth going forward will be driven by Asia and elsewhere? If that is the case, does the upcoming election potentially have an impact on the growth in that area?
好的，谢谢。第二个问题是关于国际业务的。如果我对您的评论理解有误，请提前道歉，但听起来您似乎是在说，在伦敦可能会有更多的竞争。这是否意味着未来相当一部分的国际增长将由亚洲和其他地区驱动？如果是这样，即将到来的选举是否可能对该地区的增长产生影响？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Wow. First of all, our London wholesale business is proportionately is not the overwhelming part of our international business. It's about 10%. And so put that in perspective, 90% is our global retail international Europe grew eight and a half. Latin America grew seven and a half. Asia grew in the nines. So it's that vast territory. And then the U.K. itself rose well, and then which is U.K. retail, which is a big business. And then you have the London wholesale market, where business comes to London to get placed.
哇。首先，我们的伦敦批发业务在我们国际业务中占比并不大，大约只有 10%。所以，让我们从这一点来看，90%是我们的全球零售业务。欧洲零售增长了 8.5%，拉丁美洲增长了 7.5%，亚洲增长了 9%。这是一个广阔的领域。然后，英国本土也取得了很好的增长，这指的是英国零售业务，这是一项大生意。接着是伦敦的批发市场，这里是商家来伦敦进行商品摆放的地方。
And that's what my comment was referring to. The classic London market competition that I just thought I would call out because you start to see the behavior that is classic of London. The election, I'm not sure how you linked it to the election and the election outcome. You'd have to enlighten me, but does that help you?
这就是我评论所指的内容。我刚刚提到的那种经典的伦敦市场竞争，因为您开始看到典型的伦敦行为。至于选举，我不太明白您是如何将其与选举结果联系起来的。您能否给我解释一下？这能帮到您吗？
Bob Huang 黄波
Okay. No, no, I think it does. Really appreciate the U.K. comments there. Thank you.
好的，不，我认为是的。真的非常感谢那里的英国评论。谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
You got it. I feel good about our international growth capabilities.
你明白了。我对我们国际增长能力感到很满意。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS Financial. Your line is open.
下一位提问者来自 UBS 金融的 Brian Meredith 先生，您的提问机会现在开放。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩·默里德
Yes, thank you. Evan I'm just curious, given the hurricane activity we've seen in the elevated call it cat losses, what are you seeing in the property lines, right now? What's your expectations if we go into 1:1 renewals both on the primary and reinsured side?
是的，谢谢。伊万，我只是好奇，鉴于我们看到的飓风活动，也就是所谓的“自然灾害损失”，目前你在财产线方面看到了什么？如果我们进入一比一的续保，无论是主保还是再保险方面，你的预期是什么？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Yes, on the primary side in the middle market, small commercial, which is really the vast majority of business in insurance in North America. Overall when you look at the industry, pricing remains firm and prices continue to go up and it's both hurricane and active SCS activity, modeled, non-modeled loss and the market needs the price and it continues to move in that direction. Would you get to shared and layered particularly whether it's large account or it's E&S related. That's where there is more -- the business is well priced but there is rate pressure. Rates are coming down though they remain at good levels and because there's more capital that's entered the market, more competition and again in particular I call out London behavior that is almost aberrant relative to everybody else. But it remains a robust market.
在北美保险市场，尤其是中小企业领域，整体定价保持坚挺，价格持续上涨。这主要受飓风和强对流风暴（SCS）等灾害活动的影响，包括模型内和模型外的损失，市场需要对此进行定价，并持续朝这一方向发展。然而，在分层共享的业务中，尤其是涉及大型账户或E&S（超额与特殊责任）相关的业务，尽管定价合理，但面临费率压力。费率有所下降，但仍处于良好水平。这主要由于市场上资本增加，竞争加剧，特别是伦敦市场的行为与其他地区相比显得异常。尽管如此，市场仍保持强劲。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩·默里德
Great, thank you. And my second question Peter, you mentioned there was 59 million of call it general casualty adverse development in North America. What accident years was that coming from? And maybe break it down a little more. Was it GL commercial auto? What's driving some of that development?
好的，谢谢。我的第二个问题是彼得，您提到北美有 5900 万起所谓的普通意外损失，这些损失来自哪些事故年份？也许可以更详细地分析一下。这是 GL 商业汽车保险吗？是什么因素推动了这些损失的发展？
Peter Enns 彼得·恩斯
Yes, it was 19 to 22 years and it was in the general casualty areas, the negative and look, we do a lot of studies in the third quarter of casualty in the U.S. and it was. There were puts and calls so that you really have a clearer view of it. There were a number of long tail classes in the quarter that had positive results and then there was in particular excess casualty that produced a negative result. So it's a, it's a kind of a mixed bag. It's not all in one direction and that is what all added up to the North America casualty reserve charge which was...
是的，这涉及19到22年的一般责任领域，呈现负面结果。我们在第三季度对美国责任险进行了大量研究，其中包含多方面的调整，以便更清楚地了解情况。本季度有一些长期险种获得了正面结果，但尤其是超额责任险产生了负面结果。因此，这是一个比较复杂的情况，结果并非全都朝同一个方向发展，所有这些因素共同导致了北美责任准备金的计提。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩·默里德
Thanks, I appreciate it.
谢谢，我很感激。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from a line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden 先生。您的提问机会现在开放。
David Motemaden
Thanks. Good morning Evan. I think you know over the last several quarters you guys had called out some troubled classes in North America commercial that you guys were reworking. I think it was a $50 million drag last quarter. I know there was also some of that in 4Q23. Is that largely behind you at this point? Aside from just sort of the normal course managing the book where we should see continued acceleration in some of those commercial casualty lines.
谢谢。早上好，Evan。我想你知道，在过去的几个季度里，你们已经指出了一些北美商业领域的困难类别，你们正在进行调整。我认为这在上个季度造成了 5000 万美元的损失。我知道在 2023 年第四季度也有类似情况。现在这些问题大体上已经解决了吗？除了正常管理账目之外，我们预计那些商业责任险线的增长将继续加速。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
We have another quarter or two to go before we finish. We began fourth quarter last year in most of it. We have a part of it that we began really in first quarter. So we have, we had about another 50 or so million this quarter, and it'll continue into fourth and a little bit into first. But, in the grand scheme of the total premiums we write, it's just not that significant. And remember, it's not. It's a combination of, whether some business moves to others who just don't get it. But a lot of it is due to how we change terms and attempts. This is large account related comments. And then of course the excess areas are getting a lot of rate that help to ameliorate. So maybe that helps you with it.
我们还有一两个季度就要结束了。去年我们大多数时间都在进行第四季度的工作。其中有一部分实际上是在第一季度开始的。所以这个季度我们大概还有 5000 万左右，这将继续影响到第四季度，甚至可能略微影响到第一季度。但是，在总的保险费收入中，这并不算什么。记住，这不算什么。这主要是因为一些业务转移到了那些根本不理解的人那里。但很大一部分是由于我们改变条款和尝试的方式。这是关于大客户的一些评论。当然，超额区域也得到了很多帮助，这有助于改善情况。也许这对你有所帮助。
David Motemaden
Yes, thanks. That's, that's helpful.
是的，谢谢。这很有帮助。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
When you look at the broad nature of our business, I mean, let's just keep a perspective. We write 20 some odd billion of net premiums in North America. Personal lines is about 7 of that. So all the rest is commercial. Massive number two middle market player, a large E&S player, major agricultural writer, large major account writer. And so when you start hearing numbers like, that we're talking about this area in large account casualty, well, it's not unimportant relative to the business keep perspective. It's small.
当我们审视我们业务的广泛性质时，我想说的是，让我们保持一个全局的视角。我们在北美承保的净保费约为 200 多亿。个人业务大约占其中的 70%。所以其余的都是商业保险。作为一家大型中端市场玩家、大型 E&S（专业和特殊风险）玩家、主要农业保险承保商以及大型主要账户承保商，当你们听到这样的数字，比如我们在大型账户责任险这个领域的业务时，相对于整个业务来说，这并不是无关紧要的，但相对于整个业务来说，它还是相对较小的。
David Motemaden
Right. No, that's fair. And I see the rate is also accelerating there in casualty, so that's good to see as well. Maybe just moving on the property side. The catastrophe losses over the last several years and in the third quarter, this third quarter, were definitely surprisingly low just given the mix shift to property that you guys have had over the last several years.
好的，没错，这很公平。而且我也注意到伤亡率也在那里加速上升，这也是个好消息。也许我们可以转向财产方面。过去几年以及第三季度，由于你们在财产方面的结构调整，灾害损失确实出人意料地低。
I guess I'm wondering if just from your perspective, is this third quarter sort of in line with sort of a normal third quarter that you would expect? And I guess as you think about the mix of property and casualty business, is this sort of -- are you still comfortable shifting more to property? Or is that something where, just given the market dynamics, it should stabilize at this point?
我猜我在想，从您的角度来看，这个第三季度是否与您预期的正常第三季度相符？我想，当您考虑财产险和责任险业务的组合时，您是否仍然觉得可以更多地转向财产险？或者，鉴于市场动态，这应该在这个阶段稳定下来？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Yes, the cat losses were a bit lower in the quarter than we would have modeled than our modeling that we contemplated pricing would have produced. So in our annual expected, that to me is just lost volatility. We're in a business that in a risk business there's volatility and there's two sides to the volatility. There's a favorable side and an unfavorable side. Because your average expected loss that you divide into four quarters is just an average. It's just that. And it contemplates all return periods in the loss and in the pricing.
是的，本季度自然灾害的损失比我们预期的要低一些，比我们考虑定价时模型预测的要低。所以在我们的年度预期中，这对我来说只是失去了波动性。我们从事的是一个风险业务，风险业务中存在波动性，波动性有两面。有利的一面和不利的一面。因为平均预期损失是按四个季度平均计算的，它只是这样。它考虑了所有损失和定价的回报期。
So you know, that makes sense to me that I'd see volatility. You're not going to hit the number. You're either up or down from it. And number one, number two, we have, we have a lot of capital flexibility. I think we're good underwriters of the business. So our risk selection and portfolio construction and ensuring we have good pricing I think contributes to Chubb's overall results in a major way versus the industry.
您的观点非常有道理。在保险行业中，业绩难免会出现波动，可能高于或低于预期。然而，Chubb在资本运作方面具有高度灵活性，且以卓越的承保能力著称。我们在风险选择、投资组合构建以及确保合理定价方面的专业性，显著提升了Chubb的整体业绩，使其在行业中表现突出。
And we're going to write the business whether it is property or casualty. We have an appetite for the volatility. We are going to write the business wherever it is. If we understand it, we can price it, structure it and assume. And so we're continuing to lean into property, we're continuing to lean into cash and personal lines and all other areas where we see there is growth potential. And frankly, the most frustrating thing inside our own organization, we can't get after opportunity fast enough and execute efficiently enough for our own appetite and expectations.
我们将会涉足商业保险，无论是财产险还是责任险。我们对波动性有足够的承受能力。我们将涉足任何我们理解的领域。只要我们理解，我们就能定价、构建并承担风险。因此，我们继续专注于财产险，继续专注于现金和个人险以及其他我们看到有增长潜力的所有领域。坦白说，在我们自己的组织内部，最令人沮丧的事情是我们无法快速抓住机会，也无法高效地执行以满足我们的胃口和期望。
David Motemaden
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Jefferies. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自耶路撒冷的杰弗里斯的 Yaron Kinar 先生。您的提问机会已经开启。
Yaron Kinar 柯因纳·亚龙
Thank you. Good morning. And maybe just continuing on the previous questions. So when we look at North America casualty, it is where you're getting the most rate, I think based on the data I quickly charted jot down and definitely exceeding loss trend. But that's also where the exposure growth has been less pronounced.
谢谢。早上好。也许我们可以继续之前的问题。当我们观察北美伤亡情况时，我认为根据我快速绘制的图表和数据记录，伤亡率最高，并且确实超过了损失趋势。但这也正是暴露增长不那么明显的地方。
I'm guessing that's because of the work you're doing on fixing the trouble classes that you referenced. So without asking for guidance here, but just based on the data, is it fair to think of a growing appetite for casualty coming through in results as the troubled lines are fixed?
您的观察是正确的。随着我们积极解决问题险种，特别是在一般责任领域的挑战，我们的承保能力和风险选择得到了显著提升。这使我们能够更有效地管理风险，并在这些领域实现更好的业绩。因此，随着这些问题的解决，我们对责任险的承保兴趣和能力都有所增加。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
I don't know where you're getting that picture, but I can tell you that our casualty lines are actually growing quickly. And I'm not going to give you a breakdown, but our casualty lines are actually growing quickly.
我不知道你从哪里得到那张图片，但我可以告诉你，我们的伤亡人数实际上正在迅速增加。而且我不会给你具体的数据分解，但我们的伤亡人数实际上正在迅速增加。
And in North America, in the areas where we see decent pricing and I don't see much of an overhang of $50 billion, hardly much of an overhang. So I can't agree with you. Your line of logic and I have to leave you to think your own thoughts.
在北美市场，我们在一些定价合理的领域几乎没有看到500亿美元的负担，几乎没有什么沉重的压力。因此，我无法认同您的逻辑思路，还是留给您自己去思考吧。
Yaron Kinar 柯因纳·亚龙
I'm just referencing the exposure growth of 70 basis points you called out in casualty pricing in North America.
我只是在引用您在北美意外险定价中提到的 70 个基点的风险敞口增长。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
No, you're missing it. That's not growth in premium. That's okay. I have a store, My store sold more goods this year than last year. It sold 1% more in goods. My theater sold 1% more tickets than last year. That's exposure growth and we rate off of that. That's how you get to price. You're confusing price and rate with growth in premium. Two different things. My unit growth of number of customers I wrote is totally different. Yaron, you got to go. Just learn those basics. Sorry.
不，不是这样的。您搞混了，这不是保费的增长。这就像我有一家店铺，今年卖的商品比去年多了1%。我的剧院今年的售票量比去年多了1%。这叫做风险敞口增长，我们基于风险敞口来定价。这就是价格的来源。您把价格和费率与保费增长搞混了，这是两回事。我们承保客户数量的增长与此完全不同。Yaron，您得了解这些基础概念。抱歉。
Yaron Kinar 柯因纳·亚龙
Okay. All right. And then in the London behavior that you have referenced, is that the competitive nature true in both casualty and property?
好的。没问题。那么，关于您提到的伦敦行为，这种竞争性在伤亡和财产方面都是真的吗？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Yes, across the board.
是的，全面地。
Yaron Kinar 柯因纳·亚龙
Okay, thank you. 好的，谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters from Raymond James. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自雷蒙德·詹姆斯公司的格雷戈里·彼得斯先生。请提问。
Gregory Peters
Good morning, everyone. Evan, for my first question, I want to go back to your comments around the life insurance business. As you pointed out, you rarely give forward guidance, so this is somewhat of a departure. Looking some of the statistics with the growth and constant dollars and the growth in deposit assets, just curious why we're not seeing that translate to more income growth. Is there something going on inside there other than currency or just some clarification on that would be helpful.
早上好，各位。Evan，关于我的第一个问题，我想回到你关于人寿保险业务的评论。正如你指出的，你很少提供前瞻性指导，所以这有些不同寻常。看了关于增长和不变美元以及存款资产增长的一些统计数据，我想了解一下为什么我们没有看到更多的收入增长。除了货币因素之外，内部是否还有其他原因？对此有一些澄清将会有所帮助。
Peter Enns 彼得·恩斯
Hey, it's Peter, Greg. The top line growth on total Life and on international as you know and as I said was around 10% the income growth in international was just over 9% so pretty much tracking. The combined insurance business in the last half of last year, I called out in the fourth quarterly earnings call had a bit of a non-recurring or oversized item, so if you back that out the growth rate would be relatively consistent for all of life with International.
嗨，Greg，这里是Peter。正如您所知道的，我提到过，寿险和国际业务的总收入增长约为10%，而国际业务的收入增长略高于9%，基本保持一致。去年下半年，综合保险业务中有一笔非经常性或较大的项目，我在第四季度财报电话会议中提到过。如果将这一因素剔除，寿险整体的增长率将与国际业务相对一致。
Gregory Peters
Great thanks for the reminder on that. Appreciate that. The second question I had was on capital. Noted your comments around dividends and share repurchase in the third quarter. The results of your company are outstanding. The free cash flow is really strong. Curious if you have any changed view on share repurchase versus shared special dividends as the stock price appreciates or given the results if there's any change on your views on capital management.
非常感谢您对此事的提醒。非常感激。第二个问题是关于资本的。我注意到了您关于第三季度股息和股票回购的评论。贵公司的业绩非常出色。自由现金流非常强劲。我想了解一下，随着股价上涨或鉴于业绩，您对股票回购与特别股息的看法是否有所改变，或者对资本管理的看法是否有任何变化。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
No it's steady as she does. We're returning a healthy amount of capital to shareholders and the balance of capital that we hold, we can put to work at good risk adjusted returns that well exceed our cost of capital. And we're -- that's the balance.
不，她做得稳稳的。我们正在向股东返还一笔健康的资本，而我们持有的资本余额，我们可以用于产生良好的风险调整后回报，这些回报将远超我们的资本成本。而且，这就是我们的平衡。
Gregory Peters
Fair enough. Thanks for your time.
好的，谢谢您的时间。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自来自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis 先生，您的提问机会现在开放。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安·图森
Hey, thanks. Good morning, Evan. I guess on your comments about competition in London wholesale, typical behavior there. I guess my concern, maybe you can talk me off the ledge on this a bit, but to me that market is London wholesale is pretty intertwined. When I hear commentary like that, I start wondering a little bit about like what might be coming next. I mean, is that a fair concern or when you say that, are you really just honing in on just strictly London?
嘿，谢谢。早上好，Evan。我想你提到的关于伦敦批发市场的竞争，那边的典型行为。我猜我的担忧，也许你能帮我从焦虑中走出来一点，但对我来说，伦敦批发市场似乎非常紧密相连。当我听到这样的评论时，我开始想，接下来可能会发生什么。我的意思是，这是否是一个合理的担忧，还是当你这么说的时候，你只是在严格关注伦敦？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
No, I think it's, I'm saying it particularly about London. And look, the business in London, overall the market is profitable. But my real point was the kind of behavior I'm seeing them exhibit, the way they're trying to attract more capital to a finite amount of business. The behavior of the capital as I look at it and the guises that it's in it just sets the table for the same movie I've watched that will occur over a number of years many times. And they just can't ultimately stand prosperity. And so I'm just calling it out because I'm seeing it or I'm seeing it begin and it is peculiar in particular to the London.
不，我认为这特别是指伦敦。看，伦敦的商业总体上是盈利的。但我的真正观点是，我看到的那种行为，他们试图将更多资本吸引到有限的业务中。在我看来，资本的行为以及它的伪装，就像我多次看过的同一部电影一样，会在接下来的几年里多次上演。他们最终都无法持续繁荣。所以我只是把它指出来，因为我正在看到它，或者我看到它开始，这特别奇怪，尤其是在伦敦。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安·图森
Got it. And then I guess just a follow up thinking about international life. So it took more than a decade to get to a billion dollars of premium. Any, any, any suggestion you want to give us on how long it's going to take to get the next billion of operating earnings there?
明白了。那么，我想再就国际生活跟您探讨一下。从零到十亿美元的收入用了十多年时间。您有什么建议吗？关于接下来实现运营收入达到下一个十亿美元的里程碑，您认为还需要多长时间？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
In Life International? In International, I think it's Life. Did you say international Life, Ryan?
在国际生活？在国际，我觉得是生活。你说的是国际生活，Ryan 吗？
Ryan Tunis 瑞安·图森
I did, yes. 是的，我做了。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Yes, stay tuned, buddy. It ain't going to take a decade.
好的，保持关注，伙计。这不会花上十年。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安·图森
Thanks. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Barclays. Your line is open.
下一位提问者是来自巴克莱斯的 Alex Scott，您的提问机会现在开放。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯·斯科特
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. First one I had for you is just on the casualty pricing dynamics we're seeing in the market. I mean, on one hand we're seeing some unfavorable here or there in some of these specific product lines like excess liability and so forth. But overall profitability seems pretty good when we look at overall ROEs across many of these businesses. And I just wanted to get your thoughts on price adequacy in general across some of those casualty lines and how much need is there for the industry in your view to keep pushing price and casualty.
您好，早上好。感谢您解答问题。我首先想问您的是关于市场上伤亡赔偿定价动态的问题。我的意思是，一方面，我们在一些特定产品线，比如超额责任险等方面看到了一些不利因素。但从整体来看，当我们观察许多这些企业的整体回报率时，盈利能力似乎相当不错。我只是想听听您对一些伤亡赔偿险种价格合理性的看法，以及您认为行业在推动伤亡赔偿价格方面还有多少需求。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Yes, there is no general statement. It varies by area of casualty by customer, cohort by geography. There is no simple and that's why it's always an underwriter's market and you got to have the data, you got to have the experience and then you got to have the command and control to actually put them to work, and you got to have the analytics and actuarial to back it up. So there is no general statement that could put casualty which is a massive class of insurance in a neat box and on a bumper sticker.
是的，没有普遍适用的说法。这因地区、客户、客户群体和地理而异。没有简单的方法，这就是为什么它始终是保险人的市场，你必须有数据，你必须有经验，然后你必须有指挥和控制能力来实际运用这些数据，你还必须有分析和精算支持。因此，没有一句话能够将庞大的保险类别——意外险——简洁地归纳在一个小盒子里，或者贴在保险杠贴纸上。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯·斯科特
Understood. And sorry for the more broad based question it's just something I grapple with. Looking at the specific products versus like the overall profitability of companies. I honestly, I give it I'd help you out and give it to you. Understood.
明白了。对于这个问题范围较广，我感到有些困扰。在比较具体产品与公司整体盈利能力时，我真心愿意帮助你，把这个信息提供给你。明白了。
Next one I have is just on the asset base I guess is we're seeing I guess lower paid claims relative to incurred sort of an elongation of the claim cycle and casualty we're seeing asset bases kind of grow more than they otherwise would, which the good part about that is you get more net investment income potentially. I mean how should we think about the growth in the asset base?
接下来我要说的是关于资产基础的问题，我觉得我们看到了赔付金额相对较低，索赔周期似乎有所延长，在意外险方面，我们看到资产基础的增长超过了正常水平。这其中的好处是可能会带来更多的净投资收益。我的意思是，我们应该如何思考资产基础的增长呢？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
I think you just said something that you're going to have to think about how you connected those dots. You just said elongated payout pattern. And I don't relate to an elongated payout pattern. I do relate to strength of reserves that all things being equal paid to incurred can point to. And I do understand growth in business and in longer tail areas and mix in that regard. But I don't relate to a notion of elongated payout pattern generally speaking. And I don't know, I got the data, at least when it comes to Chubb.
我认为你刚刚说的那句话，你可能需要思考一下你是如何将这些点联系起来的。你刚刚提到了“拉长的支付模式”。我并不认同“拉长的支付模式”。我更认同的是，在所有条件相同的情况下，储备实力的强弱可以指向已发生的支付。我确实理解业务增长和更长尾领域的增长，以及在这个方面的混合。但总的来说，我不认同“拉长的支付模式”。我不知道，至少就 Chubb 而言，我得到了数据。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯·斯科特
Can I. I mean the invested asset base growing at a pretty strong clip. I mean what's the underlying driver?
我可以吗。我的意思是，投资资产基础增长速度相当快。我的意思是，背后的驱动因素是什么？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Our business has been growing. And our margins have been good, and so our invested asset base, yes, continues to grow and our capital has been growing and that invested asset is a source of income and at superior returns on a risk adjusted well in excess of cost of capital. So that is a source of strength for the company.
我们的业务一直在增长。我们的利润率也一直不错，因此我们的投资资产规模也在持续增长，我们的资本也在增长，而这些投资资产是收入来源，并且风险调整后的回报率远高于资本成本。这对公司来说是一个强大的支撑。
And we will continue to grow the invested asset on purpose and we will continue to focus on returns within that portfolio as a good asset allocator would, which is my earlier comments about us as an asset manager. We're a manager of capital and claim reserves. That's third party and that will continue to grow.
我们将继续有目的地扩大投资资产，并将继续关注该投资组合的回报，正如一个优秀的资产配置者所做的那样，这是我之前关于我们作为资产管理人的评论。我们是资本和储备的管理者。这是第三方，并且将继续增长。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯·斯科特
Thanks very much. 非常感谢。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen. Your line is open.
下一位提问者是来自 TD Cowen 的安德鲁·克利格曼先生。您的提问机会现在开放。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁·克利格曼
Hey, good morning. Just thinking about the financial lines where premium was down 6.2% and I think you highlighted rate off low single digit but you still generated about a billion and a quarter of premium. So I'm wondering how much of that was D&O? Can you still make money in D&O and just how are you thinking about the outlook there?
嘿，早上好。我正在想财务线的情况，保费下降了 6.2%，而你提到的费率只是低个位数，但你们还是产生了约 12.5 亿保费的收益。我想知道其中有多少是 D&O 保险的？在 D&O 保险领域你们还能赚钱吗？你们对这一领域的展望是怎样的？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
I'm not going to give you a breakdown of how much was D&O, that's proprietary. But I am, what I will tell you is we're not writing the business if we can't make money, and we have a very large installed customer base. We have a long storied reputation in G&O and financial lines. We're a major brand in it. And when they're looking for someone to write their primary that is manage their risk, more often than not they want Chubb on that and the competition then is more in the excess layers. And yes, we're writing D&O because where we are, we're making.
我不会向您透露具体的 D&O（董事及高级管理人员责任险）金额，因为这属于机密信息。但我可以告诉您的是，如果我们不能从中获利，我们就不会承保这项业务。我们拥有庞大的客户基础，并且在 G&O（一般责任险）和金融险领域有着悠久的良好声誉。我们是这一领域的知名品牌。当客户寻找可以承保其主要业务并管理其风险的人时，他们往往更倾向于选择 Chubb，而竞争则更多地集中在超赔层。是的，我们在承保 D&O，因为我们所在的市场，我们正在盈利。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁·克利格曼
That makes a lot of sense. And then just maybe to kind of follow on that London movie commentary that you gave. You're doing such exceptional underlying combined 80.8 in North America, 84.8. And overseas, Evan, could you see an environment where, it just gets more competitive globally and these excellent, these exceptional combines maybe erode a little bit. You still do great. But it's five years into the hard market already. Didn't we see?
那很有道理。然后，也许可以接着你刚才提到的伦敦电影评论来说。你们在北美取得了非常出色的综合成绩，80.8 分，而在海外，Evan，你是否认为全球竞争将变得更加激烈，这些出色的综合成绩可能会略有下降？尽管如此，你们仍然做得很好。但现在已经进入第五个艰难的市场周期了，我们没有看到这一点吗？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Here's what you're missing. You're looking at it on an ex-cat basis. When everyone is cat levered, look at published bind ratios. That's what tells you you can't chuck out the losses and leave the premium in the denominator. I reject that discussion because that's just not, that's just not understanding risk. And so what those ex cat look like and then ask yourself in and you have to do the work. But when you look at various companies, you look at various markets, you got to understand how much is cat levered, how much is not cat levered to get a real the health.
您忽略了一点，您只是从剔除巨灾的角度来看待问题。当所有人都受到巨灾杠杆影响时，应该查看公布的承保比率。这样才能说明问题，不能剔除损失而只保留分母中的保费。我不同意这种讨论，因为这并没有真正理解风险。因此，您需要了解那些剔除巨灾后的数据，并进一步分析各公司和各市场的巨灾杠杆比例以及非巨灾杠杆比例，以便准确判断市场的实际健康状况。
And then that's why I continue to say published combined ratio is your most important indicator. And then after that a secondary indicator, all things being equal, is ex-cat. It tells you some things. But don't over read it.
这也是我为什么一直强调公布的综合成本率是最重要的指标。其次，在其他条件相同的情况下，剔除巨灾因素的指标作为次要指标，确实能提供一些信息，但不要过度解读。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁·克利格曼
So what I'm right, so what I should just simply read in is that the combines on an absolute basis are still very high for the industry and the outlook is good for Chubb.
所以，如果我说得对的话，我应该简单地理解为，从绝对值来看，该行业的合并仍然非常高，对于 Chubb 的前景来说，情况是乐观的。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
They're good. They're delivering good returns for the industry overall. And it varies by company. Some companies it's delivering good returns, some it's not. They're decent. There's not a lot of room to move. If you're thinking about pricing adequacy, it's not like industry ROEs are off the charts. They're decent, they're good on a risk adjusted basis. And then loss trend is relentless. Every year you have loss trend. See, you can't just stand still just to stay where you are. You got to get rate or price.
他们做得不错。总的来说，它们为整个行业带来了良好的回报。这因公司而异。有些公司带来了良好的回报，而有些则没有。它们还可以。提升空间不大。如果你在考虑定价合理性，行业的净资产收益率并没有高得离谱。它们是合理的，风险调整后的表现良好。然后是损失趋势，这种趋势是持续的。每年都会有损失趋势。你看，你不能只是停滞不前，只是为了保持现状。你必须提高费率或价格。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁·克利格曼
Makes a lot of sense.
很有道理。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
You got it, buddy.
明白了，兄弟。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自来自富国银行的爱莉丝·格林斯潘女士，您的提问机会现在开放。
Elyse Greenspan 格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, you guys said right there was 59 million of I guess strengthening on long tail reserves. I know in response to an earlier question there were some pushes and polls. Can you guys give us a sense of, what was released in workers comp versus what was added to excess casualty in the quarter?
您好，谢谢。早上好。我的第一个问题是，你们刚才提到过，长期储备金增加了大约 5900 万。我知道在回答之前的某个问题时，进行了一些调查和投票。你们能否告诉我们，在季度报告中，在工人赔偿金方面发布了什么，以及增加了哪些超额责任险？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
No, we've given. I gave as much color around that there was in long tail, there was both positive and negative and negative was more excess related. And beyond that we're not giving detail.
不，我们已经给出了。我在那方面的描述已经尽可能丰富，既有正面的也有负面的，而且负面更多是关于过度相关的。除此之外，我们不再提供细节。
Elyse Greenspan 格林斯潘
Okay, thanks. And then you guys typically provide an investment income guide.
好的，谢谢。然后你们通常会提供一份投资收益指南。
I don't think that was given this quarter. Any color you can provide there just relative to, fourth quarter and forward.
我不认为这季度已经给出。你提供的任何颜色都只是相对于第四季度及以后而言。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Yes, Elyse, and last quarter I gave last six months guidance. So what I would say for the fourth quarter is we will be at the high end of that guidance for the fourth quarter on a recurring basis. Obviously there's things that are harder to predict. Like I spiked out the 40 million in the third quarter that was higher than normal on PE. But I'd say the high end of the guidance rate guidance level on a recurring basis for the fourth quarter.
是的，Elyse，上一季度我给出了过去六个月的预测。所以对于第四季度，我想说的是，我们将持续处于那个预测的高端。显然，有些事情更难以预测。比如我在第三季度预测了 4000 万，这个数字高于正常水平。但我会说，对于第四季度的预测，我们将持续处于高端水平。
Elyse Greenspan 格林斯潘
And then on tax you said you would give us right next year with Q4, but given, just Bermuda tax changes going into effect, just directionally, would that imply you guys would think the tax rate would be higher next year relative to this year's guide?
然后您提到明年第四季度会给我们税收方面的调整，但鉴于百慕大即将实施的税收变化，从趋势上看，这意味着你们认为明年的税率相对于今年的指引会更高吗？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
We typically give the full year guidance in the fourth quarter. That's as far as we go. There is uncertainty, so we're not giving any more specific.
我们通常在第四季度提供全年指导。这就足够了。由于存在不确定性，我们不会提供更具体的指导。
Elyse Greenspan 格林斯潘
Okay, thank you. 好的，谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from a line of Meyer Shields from KBW. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields 先生。您的提问机会已经开启。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·谢尔兹
Great, thanks. If I can go back to the division of pricing to rate and exposure unit, to the extent that more of pricing is coming from rate rather than exposed units, does that have implications for loss ratio progress?
好的，谢谢。如果我能回到定价的划分，即定价更多地来自费率而不是风险敞口单位，这对损失比率的进展有什么影响？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Does it, what? "它，什么？"
Meyer Shields 梅耶·谢尔兹
Does that have? Well, if more of pricing comes from rate than exposure units, does that imply a difference in terms of how when these premiums are earned, the loss ratio will move.
那有吗？嗯，如果更多的定价来自费率而不是暴露单位，那么这是否意味着在赚取这些保险费时，损失率的变化会有所不同。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
No, no, not at all. Look, be careful. I didn't say exposure. Maybe we're using different terms. An exposure unit to me would be that I wrote more policies, I took more insureds. That doesn't go into price. We're only talking rate and price times exposure. And so we have rate and then we have a certain kind of exposure that equals price. And you apply it against units of exposure which is insured. And so the exposure part of price is just like rate. It acts like rate. The portion of it that we count, and that has nothing to do with it all earns exactly the same way.
不，不完全不是那样。请注意，我并没有提到风险敞口。也许我们使用的术语不同。对我来说，"风险敞口单位"意味着我签发了更多保单，吸引了更多被保险人，但这不涉及价格。我们只在讨论费率以及费率乘以风险敞口的价格。我们有费率，也有某种类型的风险敞口，这两者共同构成价格。然后我们将其应用于风险敞口单位，即被保险人。所以在价格中的风险敞口部分就像费率一样运作，计入我们统计的部分，与费率的运作方式相同，并且它的收益方式也完全一致。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·谢尔兹
Okay. 好的。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Because driving both premium. And if it's an annual policy, it's earned 1/12 a month. One, three.
因为驾驶都享受高端服务。如果是年度保险，每月赚取 1/12。一、三年。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·谢尔兹
No, I think I understand that. Yes. I apologize for the terminology issue. Second question, though to the extent that that component of pricing is slowing down, to the extent that that reflects maybe slowing economic growth, does that itself have implications for underwriting profitability?
不，我想我明白了。是的，我为术语问题道歉。第二个问题是，尽管定价的这一部分正在放缓，但如果是反映了经济增长的放缓，那么这本身对承保利润率有什么影响？
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Not that we. No, not as we see it, no, not all things. And that's a whole different theoretical discussion that depends on the line of business, what we're talking about, so, Oh my God, no. If you want to sit in and have a gestalt [ph] discussion about that sometime, Meyer, I'll do.
不是我们。不，不是按照我们的看法，不，不是所有事情。这完全是另一个理论讨论，它取决于我们的业务线，我们谈论的是什么，所以，哦，我的天哪，不。如果你想找个时间坐下来就那个问题进行一次整体（音译）讨论，Meyer，我可以的。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·谢尔兹
All right, I'll bring the herring.
好的，我带鲱鱼来。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
No, no, only in sour cream sauce.
不，不，只有酸奶油酱里才有。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski 先生，您的提问机会现在开放。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔·扎雷姆斯基
Hey, good morning. So just kind of back to the casualty competitive marketplace. So casualty pricing has accelerated in recent quarters to approximately 12%. And as you state too, that's well above what most companies publicly stated their loss cost assumption. I guess I'm just trying to understand why pricing would be accelerating all the way up to 12, especially in today's higher interest rate environment, which is good for long tail lines. If loss costs are indeed below, then well below that number.
嘿，早上好。所以，我们再回到伤亡险的竞争市场。伤亡险的定价在最近几个季度加速上升，大约达到了 12%。正如您所说，这个数字远高于大多数公司公开声明的损失成本假设。我想了解为什么定价会一直加速到 12%，尤其是在今天的高利率环境下，这对长期尾端业务是有利的。如果损失成本确实低于这个数字，那么就远远低于这个数字了。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
Yes, so. Yes. So what I've been clear about, and that you're trying to be too simplistic, there are many cohorts of casualty, the majority significant. The vast majority of our portfolio is adequately priced. There are areas where price has had to accelerate to achieve an adequate risk adjusted return.
是的，所以。是的。我想明确的是，您试图过于简单化，伤亡群体有很多，其中大多数都很严重。我们的大部分投资组合定价合理。有些领域，为了实现合理的风险调整回报，价格不得不加速上涨。
It's those everyone's book of casualty is different. And our portfolio of casualty has produced these kinds of rate increases which were made up of just to keep pace with loss costs where we are adequately priced and greater levels of rate increase where we're pushing to achieve price adequacy and it all mixes together. And by the way, what's producing outstanding combined ratios. And that's as far as I can take it.
这些人的伤亡记录各不相同。我们的伤亡记录组合产生了这些类型的费率上涨，这只是为了跟上损失成本，确保我们定价合理，以及更高的费率上涨水平，这是我们在努力实现价格合理性的目标。这一切交织在一起。顺便说一句，这一切都在产生出色的综合比率。这就是我能说的全部了。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔·扎雷姆斯基
Okay. Okay, that's understood. Maybe just switching gears. Lastly, since you were willing to offer some color on your guidance on life insurance. So if the target this year was I guess a billion or so.
好的。好的，明白了。也许我们可以换个话题。最后，既然你愿意分享一些关于人寿保险的见解。所以，如果今年的目标是大概10亿左右。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
No, Mike, it's not going to happen. I'm not giving you forward guidance. The only thing I was doing is because it was a year where it's the first year and I was just doing it for all of you because this was our first year where you didn't have noise of acquisitions and that in it. And you're trying to get it. Where are we relative to where we think we should be? That was why I gave a comment about the 2024 full year where our own target was, I just said in excess of $1 billion for operating income and that we are well on track to achieve that or exceed that. And that it was just to give you guys a sort of a landing place and then from there we don't get forward.
不，Mike，这不会发生。我不会给出前瞻性指引。我之所以这样做，仅仅是因为这是我们第一年没有并购影响的年份。我只是想让你们了解一下我们当前的表现与预期的对比。这也是为什么我提到2024年全年的目标，我们的运营收入目标是超过10亿美元，而且我们正朝着实现甚至超越这一目标稳步前进。我只是想给你们提供一个参考，但之后我们不会再给出进一步的前瞻。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔·扎雷姆斯基
Okay, got it because last year was over a billion. But yes, there was definitely some noise and obviously earnings there have been great. So, okay. Thank you for taking my questions.
好的，明白了，因为去年超过了十亿。但是，确实有一些噪音，显然盈利也相当不错。所以，好的。感谢您回答我的问题。
Evan Greenberg 格林伯格
You're welcome. But by the way, it's a growth area.
不客气。不过顺便说一句，这是一个增长领域。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔·扎雷姆斯基
Thanks. 谢谢。
Karen Beyer 贝耶尔·卡伦
Thank you everyone for joining us today. If you have any follow up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day. Thanks.
谢谢大家今天来参加。如果您有任何后续问题，我们会在这里等待您的电话。祝您今天愉快。谢谢。
Operator 操作员
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
今天电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。您可以现在挂断电话。
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