2024-10-30 Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Q1 2025 Results Conference Call October 30, 2024 5:30 PM ET
微软公司（纳斯达克：MSFT）2025 财年第一季度业绩电话会议 2024 年 10 月 30 日 美国东部时间下午 5:30
Company Participants 公司参与者
Brett Iversen - Vice President of Investor Relations
布雷特·艾弗森 - 投资者关系副总裁
Satya Nadella - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
萨提亚·纳德拉 - 董事长兼首席执行官
Amy Hood - Chief Financial Officer
艾米·胡德 - 首席财务官
Alice Jolla - Chief Accounting Officer
爱丽丝·乔拉 - 首席会计官
Keith Dolliver - Corporate Secretary and Deputy General Counsel
基思·多利弗 - 公司秘书兼副总法律顾问
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
Keith Weiss - Morgan Stanley
基思·韦斯 - 摩根士丹利
Brent Thill - Jefferies 布伦特·希尔 - 杰富瑞
Mark Moerdler - Bernstein
马克·莫德勒 - 伯恩斯坦
Karl Keirstead - UBS 卡尔·基尔斯泰德 - 瑞银
Kash Rangan - Goldman Sachs
卡什·兰根 - 高盛
Mark Murphy - JPMorgan 马克·墨菲 - 摩根大通
Raimo Lenschow - Barclays
雷莫·伦肖 - 巴克莱
Rishi Jaluria - RBC 里希·贾卢里亚 - 加拿大皇家银行
Operator 操作员
Greetings, and welcome to the Microsoft Fiscal Year 2025 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
您好，欢迎参加微软 2025 财年第一季度收益电话会议。目前，所有参与者都处于只听模式。正式演示后将进行问答环节。[操作员说明] 提醒您，本次会议正在录音。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Brett Iversen, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
现在我很高兴为大家介绍您的主持人，投资者关系副总裁布雷特·艾弗森。请开始。
Brett Iversen 布雷特·艾弗森
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. On the call with me are Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Amy Hood, Chief Financial Officer; Alice Jolla, Chief Accounting Officer; and Keith Dolliver, Corporate Secretary and Deputy General Counsel.
下午好，感谢您今天加入我们。与我一起参加电话会议的有董事长兼首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉，首席财务官艾米·胡德，首席会计官艾丽斯·乔拉，以及公司秘书兼副总法律顾问基思·多利弗。
On the Microsoft Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings press release and financial summary slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provides the reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.
在微软投资者关系网站上，您可以找到我们的收益新闻稿和财务摘要幻灯片，这些内容旨在补充我们在今天电话会议中的准备发言，并提供 GAAP 和非 GAAP 财务指标之间差异的对账。
We have recast certain prior period amounts to reflect the FY '25 changes to the composition of our segments announced in August 2024. Additional details, including FY '23 and FY '24 recast segment revenue, operating income and product and service level revenue can be found in the financial statements filed on the Investor Relations website. More detailed outlook slides will also be available on the Microsoft Investor Relations website when we provide outlook commentary on today's call.
我们已重新编制某些以前期间的金额，以反映我们在 2024 年 8 月宣布的 FY '25 分部构成的变化。更多详细信息，包括 FY '23 和 FY '24 重新编制的分部收入、营业收入以及产品和服务级别收入，可以在投资者关系网站上提交的财务报表中找到。当我们在今天的电话会议上提供展望评论时，更详细的展望幻灯片也将在微软投资者关系网站上提供。
On this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP items. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the Company's first quarter performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results. All growth comparisons we make on the call today relate to the corresponding period of last year, unless otherwise noted.
在本次电话会议中，我们将讨论某些非 GAAP 项目。所提供的非 GAAP 财务指标不应被视为 GAAP 财务表现指标的替代或优于 GAAP 的指标。它们作为额外的澄清项目被包括在内，以帮助投资者进一步了解公司第一季度的表现，以及这些项目和事件对财务结果的影响。除非另有说明，今天电话会议中我们所做的所有增长比较均与去年的相应时期相关。
We will also provide growth rates in constant currency when available as a framework for assessing how our underlying businesses performed, excluding the effect of foreign currency rate fluctuations. Where growth rates are the same in constant currency, we will refer to the growth rate only. We will post our prepared remarks to our website immediately following the call until the complete transcript is available.
我们还将在可能的情况下提供以不变货币计算的增长率，作为评估我们基础业务表现的框架，排除外汇汇率波动的影响。在不变货币下增长率相同时，我们将仅提及增长率。我们将在电话会议结束后立即将准备好的发言稿发布到我们的网站上，直到完整的文字记录可用为止。
Today's call is being webcast live and recorded. If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission, in the transcript, and in any future use of the recording. You can replay the call and view the transcript on the Microsoft Investor Relations website.
今天的电话会议正在进行网络直播并录音。如果您提出问题，它将被包括在我们的直播传输中、在文字记录中以及在录音的任何未来使用中。您可以在微软投资者关系网站上重播电话会议并查看文字记录。
During this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.
在此次电话会议中，我们将作出前瞻性声明，这些声明是关于未来事件的预测、预期或其他陈述。这些声明基于当前的预期和假设，这些预期和假设受到风险和不确定性的影响。由于今天的收益新闻稿中讨论的因素、在本次电话会议期间的评论以及我们提交给证券交易委员会的 10-K 表格、10-Q 表格和其他报告和文件中的风险因素部分，实际结果可能会有重大差异。我们不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的责任。
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Satya.
就这样，我把电话交给萨提亚。
Satya Nadella 萨提亚·纳德拉
Thank you, Brett. We are off to a solid start to our fiscal year, driven by continued strength of Microsoft Cloud, which surpassed $38.9 billion in revenue, up 22%. AI-driven transformation is changing work, work artifacts and workflow across every role, function, and business process, helping customers drive new growth and operating leverage. All up, our AI business is on track to surpass an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, which will make it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.
谢谢你，Brett。我们在本财年有了一个稳健的开端，主要得益于Microsoft Cloud的持续强劲表现，其收入已超过389亿美元，同比增长22%。由人工智能驱动的转型正在改变每个角色、职能和业务流程中的工作、工作成果和工作流程，帮助客户推动新的增长和运营杠杆。总体来看，我们的人工智能业务预计将在下季度实现年化收入超过100亿美元的目标，这将使其成为我们历史上最快达到这一里程碑的业务。
Now I'll highlight examples of our progress starting with infrastructure. Azure took share this quarter. We are seeing continued growth in cloud migration. Azure Arc now has over 39,000 customers across every industry, including American Tower, CTT, L'Oréal, up more than 80% year-over-year. We now have data centers in over 60 regions around the world. And this quarter, we announced new cloud and AI infrastructure investments in Brazil, Italy, Mexico, and Sweden as we expand our capacity in line with our long-term demand signals.
现在，我将重点介绍我们在基础设施方面的进展。Azure 本季度占据了市场份额。我们看到云迁移的持续增长。Azure Arc 现在在各个行业拥有超过 39,000 名客户，包括 American Tower、CTT、L'Oréal，同比增加超过 80%。我们现在在全球 60 多个地区设有数据中心。本季度，我们宣布在巴西、意大利、墨西哥和瑞典进行新的云和 AI 基础设施投资，以便根据我们的长期需求信号扩大我们的容量。
At the silicon layer, our new Cobalt 100 VMs are being used by companies like Databricks, Elastic, Siemens, Snowflake, and Synopsys to power their general-purpose workloads at up to 50% better price performance than previous generations. On top of this, we are building out our next-generation AI infrastructure, innovating across the full stack to optimize our fleet for AI workloads. We offer the broadest selection of AI accelerators, including our first-party accelerator, Maia 100 as well as the latest GPUs from AMD and NVIDIA. In fact, we are the first cloud to bring up NVIDIA's Blackwell system with GB200-powered AI servers.
在硅层，我们的新型 Cobalt 100 虚拟机被 Databricks、Elastic、西门子、Snowflake 和 Synopsys 等公司用于支持其通用工作负载，与前几代相比，价格性能提高了多达 50%。在此基础上，我们正在构建下一代 AI 基础设施，在整个堆栈中进行创新，以优化我们的 AI 工作负载车队。我们提供最广泛的 AI 加速器选择，包括我们的第一方加速器 Maia 100 以及来自 AMD 和 NVIDIA 的最新 GPU。事实上，我们是首个使用 GB200 驱动的 AI 服务器启动 NVIDIA 的 Blackwell 系统的云。
Our partnership with OpenAI also continues to deliver results. We have an economic interest in a company that has grown significantly in value, and we have built differentiated IP and are driving revenue momentum. More broadly with Azure AI, we are building an end-to-end app platform to help customers build their own Copilots and agents. Azure OpenAI usage more than doubled over the past six months as both digital natives like Grammarly and Harvey as well as established enterprises like Bajaj Finance, Hitachi, KT, and LG move apps from test to production.
我们与 OpenAI 的合作也继续取得成果。我们在一家价值显著增长的公司中拥有经济利益，并且我们已经建立了差异化的知识产权并推动了收入势头。更广泛地说，通过 Azure AI，我们正在构建一个端到端的应用平台，以帮助客户构建自己的 Copilots 和代理。在过去六个月中，Azure OpenAI 的使用量增加了一倍多，因为像 Grammarly 和 Harvey 这样的数字原生公司以及像 Bajaj Finance、日立、KT 和 LG 这样的成熟企业将应用程序从测试转移到生产。
GE Aerospace, for example, used Azure OpenAI to build a new digital assistant for all 52,000 of its employees. In just three months, it has been used to conduct over 500,000 internal queries and process more than 200,000 documents. And this quarter, we added support for OpenAI's newest model family, o1. We're also bringing industry-specific models through Azure AI, including a collection of best-in-class multimodal models for medical imaging. And with the GitHub models, we now provide access to our full model catalog directly within the GitHub developer workflow.
例如，GE 航空使用 Azure OpenAI 为其所有 52,000 名员工构建了一个新的数字助手。在短短三个月内，它已被用于进行超过 500,000 次内部查询并处理超过 200,000 份文件。本季度，我们增加了对 OpenAI 最新模型系列 o1 的支持。我们还通过 Azure AI 提供行业特定的模型，包括一系列用于医学影像的顶级多模态模型。通过 GitHub 模型，我们现在可以在 GitHub 开发者工作流程中直接访问我们的完整模型目录。
Azure AI is also increasingly an on-ramp to our data and analytics services. As developers build new AI apps on Azure, we have seen an acceleration of Azure Cosmos DB and Azure SQL DB hyperscale usage as customers like Air India, Novo Nordisk, Telefonica, Toyota Motors North America, and Uniper take advantage of capabilities, purpose-built for AI applications. And with Microsoft Fabric, we provide a single AI-powered platform to help customers like Chanel, EY, KPMG, Swiss Air, and Syndigo unify their data across clouds. We now have over 16,000 paid Fabric customers, over 70% of the Fortune 500.
Azure AI 也越来越成为我们数据和分析服务的入口。随着开发人员在 Azure 上构建新的 AI 应用程序，我们看到 Azure Cosmos DB 和 Azure SQL DB 超大规模使用的加速，因为像印度航空、诺和诺德、西班牙电信、丰田汽车北美和 Uniper 这样的客户利用了专为 AI 应用程序构建的功能。通过 Microsoft Fabric，我们提供了一个单一的 AI 驱动平台，帮助像香奈儿、安永、毕马威、瑞士航空和 Syndigo 这样的客户在云端统一他们的数据。我们现在拥有超过 16,000 个付费 Fabric 客户，其中超过 70% 来自财富 500 强公司。
Now on to developers. GitHub Copilot is changing the way the world builds software. Copilot enterprise customers increased 55% quarter-over-quarter as companies like AMD and Flutter Entertainment tailor Copilot to their own code base. And we are introducing the next phase of AI code generation, making GitHub Copilot agentic across the developer workflow. GitHub Copilot Workspace is a developer environment which leverages agents from start to finish so developers can go from spec to plan to code all in natural language.
现在谈谈开发者。GitHub Copilot 正在改变全球软件构建的方式。随着像 AMD 和 Flutter Entertainment 这样的公司将 Copilot 定制到他们自己的代码库中，Copilot 企业客户环比增长了 55%。我们正在引入 AI 代码生成的下一个阶段，使 GitHub Copilot 在整个开发者工作流程中具有主动性。GitHub Copilot Workspace 是一个开发者环境，从头到尾利用代理，使开发者可以从规范到计划到代码，全部使用自然语言。
Copilot Auto Fix is an AI agent that helps developers at companies like Asurion and Auto Group fix vulnerabilities in their code over 3x faster than it would take them on their own. We're also continuing to build on GitHub's open platform ethos by making more models available via GitHub Copilot. And we are expanding the reach of GitHub to a new segment of developers introducing GitHub Spark, which enables anyone to build apps in natural language.
Copilot Auto Fix 是一个 AI 代理，帮助 Asurion 和 Auto Group 等公司的开发人员以超过 3 倍的速度修复代码中的漏洞。我们还通过 GitHub Copilot 提供更多模型，继续在 GitHub 的开放平台精神上进行构建。我们正在通过推出 GitHub Spark 扩展 GitHub 的影响力到新的开发者群体，GitHub Spark 使任何人都能用自然语言构建应用程序。
Already, we have brought generative AI to Power Platform to help customers use low-code, no-code tools to cut costs and development time. To date, nearly 600,000 organizations have used AI-powered capabilities in Power Platform, up 4x year-over-year. Citizen developers at ZF, for example, built apps simply by describing what they need using natural language. And this quarter, we introduced new ways for customers to apply AI to streamline complex workflows with Power Automate.
目前，我们已经将生成式人工智能引入 Power Platform，帮助客户使用低代码、无代码工具来降低成本和开发时间。迄今为止，已有近 60 万家组织在 Power Platform 中使用了 AI 驱动的功能，同比增长了 4 倍。例如，ZF 的公民开发者仅通过自然语言描述他们的需求就构建了应用程序。本季度，我们推出了新的方法，帮助客户使用 Power Automate 应用 AI 来简化复杂的工作流程。
Now on to work. We launched the next wave of Microsoft 365 Copilot innovation last month, bringing together Web, Work, and Pages as the new design system for knowledge work. Pages is the first new digital artifact for the AI age, and it's designed to help you ideate with AI and collaborate with other people. We've also made Microsoft 365 Copilot responses 2x faster and improved response quality by nearly 3x. This innovation is driving accelerated usage, and the number of people using Microsoft 365 daily more than doubled quarter-over-quarter.
现在开始工作。我们上个月推出了下一波 Microsoft 365 Copilot 创新，将 Web、Work 和 Pages 结合为知识工作的新设计系统。Pages 是 AI 时代的第一个新数字工具，旨在帮助您与 AI 进行创意构思并与他人协作。我们还使 Microsoft 365 Copilot 的响应速度提高了 2 倍，响应质量提高了近 3 倍。这一创新正在推动使用加速，每日使用 Microsoft 365 的人数环比增长超过一倍。
过时的产品，表格的文本的边界不够清晰。
We are also seeing increased adoption from customers in every industry as they use Microsoft 365 Copilot to drive real business value. Vodafone, for example, will roll out Microsoft 365 Copilot to 68,000 employees after a trial showed that, on average, they save three hours per person per week. And UBS will deploy 50,000 seats in our largest finserve deal to date. And we continue to see enterprise customers coming back to buy more seats. All up, nearly 70% of the Fortune 500 now use Microsoft 365 Copilot, and customers continue to adopt it at a faster rate than any other new Microsoft 365 suite.
我们还看到各个行业的客户越来越多地采用 Microsoft 365 Copilot 来推动实际的业务价值。例如，沃达丰将在试用显示平均每人每周节省三个小时后，将 Microsoft 365 Copilot 推广到 68,000 名员工。而瑞银将在我们迄今为止最大的金融服务交易中部署 50,000 个席位。我们继续看到企业客户回购更多席位。总的来说，近 70% 的《财富》500 强公司现在使用 Microsoft 365 Copilot，客户继续以比其他任何新的 Microsoft 365 套件更快的速度采用它。
Copilot is the UI for AI and with Microsoft 365 Copilot, Copilot Studio and Agents and now Autonomous Agents, we have built an end-to-end system for AI business transformation. With Copilot Studio, organizations can build and connect Microsoft 365 Copilot to Autonomous Agents, which then delegate to Copilot when there is an exception. More than 100,000 organizations from Ensure, Standard Bank, and Thomson Reuters, to Virgin Money and Zurich Insurance have used Copilot Studio to date, up over 2x quarter-over-quarter.
Copilot 是 AI 的用户界面，借助 Microsoft 365 Copilot、Copilot Studio 和 Agents 以及现在的自主代理，我们构建了一个端到端的 AI 业务转型系统。通过 Copilot Studio，组织可以构建并将 Microsoft 365 Copilot 连接到自主代理，当出现异常时，自主代理会委派给 Copilot。到目前为止，Ensure、Standard Bank、Thomson Reuters、Virgin Money 和 Zurich Insurance 等超过 100,000 家组织已经使用了 Copilot Studio，季度环比增长超过两倍。
More broadly, we are seeing AI drive a fundamental change in the business applications market as customers shift from legacy apps to AI-first business processes. Dynamics 365 continues to take share as organizations like Evron, Heineken, and Lexmark chose our apps over other providers. And monthly active users of Copilot across our CRM and ERP portfolio increased over 60% quarter-over-quarter. Our Dynamics 365 contact center is also winning customers like Curry's, Le Creuset, and RXO as it brings generative AI to every customer engagement channel.
更广泛地说，我们看到人工智能正在推动商业应用市场的根本性变革，因为客户正在从传统应用转向以人工智能为先的业务流程。Dynamics 365 继续占据市场份额，因为像 Evron、Heineken 和 Lexmark 这样的组织选择了我们的应用程序而不是其他供应商。我们 CRM 和 ERP 产品组合中 Copilot 的月活跃用户数环比增长超过 60%。我们的 Dynamics 365 联系中心也在赢得像 Curry's、Le Creuset 和 RXO 这样的客户，因为它将生成式人工智能引入每个客户互动渠道。
And just last week, we added 10 out-of-the-box autonomous agents to Dynamics 365 that helps customers automatically qualify sales leads, track suppliers and work hand-in-hand with service reps to resolve issues. We're also bringing AI to industry-specific workflows. One year in, DAX Copilot is now documenting over 1.3 million physician patient encounters each month at over 500 health care organizations like Baptist Medical Group, Baylor Scott & White, Baltimore Medical Center, Novant Health, and Overlake Medical Center. It is showing faster revenue growth than GitHub Copilot did in this first year. And new features extend DAX beyond notes helping physicians automatically draft referrals after visit instructions and diagnostic evidence.
就在上周，我们为 Dynamics 365 增加了 10 个开箱即用的自主代理，帮助客户自动筛选销售线索、跟踪供应商，并与服务代表协作解决问题。我们还将人工智能引入特定行业的工作流程。一年之内，DAX Copilot 现在每月在超过 500 家医疗机构（如 Baptist Medical Group、Baylor Scott & White、Baltimore Medical Center、Novant Health 和 Overlake Medical Center）记录超过 130 万次医患互动。它的收入增长速度比 GitHub Copilot 在第一年时更快。新的功能将 DAX 的应用范围扩展到笔记之外，帮助医生在访问后自动起草转诊建议和诊断证据。
On top of all this AI innovation, Microsoft Teams usage remains at all-time highs as people use it to streamline all their communications. Nearly 75% of our Teams Enterprise customers now buy Premium, Phone, or Rooms. When it comes to Windows, our new class of Copilot+ PCs is winning new customers. They offer best-in-class AI capability, performance, and value. AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm now all support Copilot+ PCs.
在所有这些人工智能创新之上，随着人们使用它来简化所有通信，Microsoft Teams 的使用量仍然处于历史最高水平。我们近 75% 的 Teams 企业客户现在购买了 Premium、Phone 或 Rooms。说到 Windows，我们的新一代 Copilot+ 电脑正在赢得新客户。它们提供一流的人工智能能力、性能和价值。AMD、英特尔和高通现在都支持 Copilot+ 电脑。
信息技术早期的成果，实际上已经被浏览器大大消弱（一种很奇怪的方式），但是老树也有了新枝。
This quarter, we also introduced new AI experience only available on Copilot+ PCs like Click to Do, which places an interactive overlay over your desktop to suggest next best actions. And as we approach the end of support for Windows 10 a year from now, we are well positioned to transition our customers to Windows 11, ensuring they benefit from enhanced features and security improvements we've introduced over the past few years.
本季度，我们还在 Copilot+ 电脑上推出了新的 AI 体验，如“点击操作”，它在桌面上放置一个交互式覆盖层，以建议最佳的下一步操作。随着我们接近一年后 Windows 10 支持的结束，我们已做好充分准备，将客户过渡到 Windows 11，确保他们受益于过去几年中我们引入的增强功能和安全改进。
Now on to security. We continue to prioritize security above all else. With our Secure Future Initiative, we have dedicated the equivalent of 34,000 full-time engineers to address the highest-priority security tasks. We have made significant progress to better protect tenants' identities, networks, and engineering systems, and we have created new processes to ensure security is prioritized at every level of the Company. And we continue to take what we learn and turn it into innovations across our products.
现在谈谈安全问题。我们始终将安全置于首位。通过我们的安全未来计划，我们已投入相当于 34,000 名全职工程师的资源来处理最高优先级的安全任务。我们在更好地保护租户的身份、网络和工程系统方面取得了显著进展，并创建了新的流程以确保在公司各个层面优先考虑安全。我们还不断将所学转化为我们产品中的创新。
Security Copilot, for example, is being used by companies in every industry, including Clifford Chance, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Shell to perform SecOps tasks faster and more accurately. And we are now helping customers protect their AI deployments too. Customers have used Defender or Discover and secured more than 750,000 gen AI app instances and used Purview to audit over one billion Copilot interactions to meet their compliance obligations. And all up, we continue to take share across all major categories we serve and are consistently recognized by top analysts as a leader in 20 categories, more than any other vendor.
例如，Security Copilot 正被包括 Clifford Chance、Intesa Sanpaolo 和 Shell 在内的各个行业的公司用于更快、更准确地执行 SecOps 任务。我们现在也在帮助客户保护他们的 AI 部署。客户已经使用 Defender 或 Discover 保护了超过 750,000 个生成式 AI 应用实例，并使用 Purview 审计了超过十亿次 Copilot 交互，以满足他们的合规义务。总的来说，我们继续在我们服务的所有主要类别中占据市场份额，并且在 20 个类别中被顶级分析师一致认可为领导者，超过任何其他供应商。
Now let me turn to our consumer businesses, starting with LinkedIn. Member growth continues to accelerate with markets in India and Brazil both growing at double digits. We are also seeing record engagement as we introduce new ways for our more than 1 billion members to connect, sell services, get hired, and share knowledge. Our investments in rich formats like video strengthened our leadership in B2B advertising and amplified the value we deliver to our customers. Weekly immersive video views increased 6x quarter-over-quarter, and total video viewership on LinkedIn is up 36% year-over-year.
现在让我转向我们的消费者业务，从 LinkedIn 开始。会员增长继续加速，印度和巴西市场均以两位数增长。随着我们为超过 10 亿会员引入新的连接、销售服务、求职和分享知识的方式，我们也看到了创纪录的参与度。我们在视频等丰富格式上的投资加强了我们在 B2B 广告中的领导地位，并放大了我们为客户提供的价值。每周沉浸式视频观看量环比增长 6 倍，LinkedIn 上的视频总观看量同比增长 36%。
To B的基因。
Our AI-powered tools also continue to transform how people sell, learn and hire. In sales, new AI features help every team member perform at the level of top sellers and drive more profitable growth. In Learning, just yesterday, we announced updates to our coaching experience, including personalized career development plans. LinkedIn's first agent hiring assistant will help hirers find qualified candidates faster by tackling the most time-consuming task. Already hirers who use AI Assistant messages see a 44% higher acceptance rate compared to those who don't. And our hiring business continues to take share.
我们的 AI 驱动工具也在持续改变人们的销售、学习和招聘方式。在销售方面，新的 AI 功能帮助每个团队成员达到顶级销售员的水平，并推动更有利可图的增长。在学习方面，就在昨天，我们宣布了对教练体验的更新，包括个性化的职业发展计划。LinkedIn 的首个代理招聘助手将帮助招聘人员更快地找到合格的候选人，解决最耗时的任务。已经使用 AI 助手消息的招聘人员的接受率比不使用的高 44%。我们的招聘业务也在继续扩大市场份额。
Now on to search, advertising, and news. With Copilot, we are seeing the first step towards creating a new AI companion for everyone with new Copilot experience we introduced earlier this month includes a refreshed design and tone along with improved speed and fluency across the web and mobile. And it includes advanced capabilities like voice and vision that make it more delightful and useful and feel more natural. You can both browse and converse with Copilot simultaneously because Copilot sees what you see. More broadly, AI is also transforming search, browsers, and digital advertising, and we continue to take share across Bing and Edge. Bing ex-TAC revenue growth outpaced the search market.
现在谈谈搜索、广告和新闻。通过 Copilot，我们看到了迈向为每个人创造新的 AI 伴侣的第一步，我们在本月早些时候推出的新 Copilot 体验包括焕然一新的设计和语气，以及在网络和移动设备上的速度和流畅性提升。它还包括语音和视觉等高级功能，使其更加愉悦和实用，并感觉更加自然。您可以同时浏览和与 Copilot 对话，因为 Copilot 看到您所看到的。更广泛地说，AI 也在改变搜索、浏览器和数字广告，我们继续在 Bing 和 Edge 上占据市场份额。Bing 的除 TAC 收入增长超过了搜索市场。
Now on to gaming. One year since we closed our acquisition of Activision Blizzard King, we are focused on building a business positioned for long-term growth, driven by higher-margin content and services. You already see this transformation in our results as we diversify the ways that gamers access our content. We set new records for monthly active users in the quarter as more players than ever play our games across devices and on the Xbox platform. Game Pass also set a new Q1 record for total revenue and average revenue per subscriber. And as we look ahead, our IP across our studios has never been stronger.
现在谈谈游戏。自从我们完成对动视暴雪的收购已经一年了，我们专注于打造一个面向长期增长的业务，由高利润率的内容和服务驱动。随着我们多样化玩家获取我们内容的方式，您已经在我们的业绩中看到了这种转变。随着越来越多的玩家在各种设备和 Xbox 平台上玩我们的游戏，我们在本季度创下了月活跃用户的新纪录。Game Pass 也创下了第一季度总收入和每位用户平均收入的新纪录。展望未来，我们各个工作室的知识产权比以往任何时候都更强大。
往游戏拓展，微软的缺少链接终端用户的渠道，扩展能力显然不如苹果，也不如Google。
Last week's launch of Black Ops 6 was the biggest Call of Duty release ever, setting a record for day one players as well as Game Pass subscriber ads on launch day. And unit sales on PlayStation and Steam were also up over 60% year-over-year. This speaks to our strategy of meeting gamers where they are by enabling them to play more games across the screens, they spend their time on.
上周《黑色行动 6》的发布是有史以来最大的《使命召唤》发行，创下了首日玩家数量以及发布日 Game Pass 订阅广告的记录。PlayStation 和 Steam 的销量同比增长也超过了 60%。这表明了我们的策略，即通过让玩家能够在他们花时间的屏幕上玩更多游戏来满足他们的需求。
In closing, we are rapidly innovating to expand our opportunity across our commercial and consumer businesses. In three weeks' time, we will hold our Ignite conference, and I look forward to sharing more then about how we are helping every business function use AI to drive growth in this new era.
最后，我们正在迅速创新，以扩大我们在商业和消费业务方面的机会。三周后，我们将举办 Ignite 大会，我期待届时分享更多关于我们如何帮助每个业务部门利用人工智能在这个新时代推动增长的信息。
With that, let me turn it over to Amy.
那么，我把话交给艾米。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
Thank you, Satya, and good afternoon, everyone. This quarter, revenue was $65.6 billion, up 16%, and earnings per share was $3.30, an increase of 10%. With strong execution by our sales teams and partners, we delivered a solid start to our fiscal year with double-digit top and bottom-line growth. We also saw continued share gains across many of our businesses.
谢谢，Satya，大家下午好。本季度，收入为 656 亿美元，同比增长 16%，每股收益为 3.30 美元，增长 10%。在我们的销售团队和合作伙伴的强力执行下，我们实现了财年的良好开端，收入和利润均实现了两位数的增长。我们还在许多业务中继续获得市场份额。
In our commercial business, increased demand and growth in long-term commitments to our Microsoft Cloud platform drove our results. Commercial bookings were ahead of expectations and increased 30% and 23% in constant currency. Results were driven by strong execution across our core annuity sales motions and growth in the number of $10 million-plus contracts for both Azure and Microsoft 365. Additionally, we also saw an increase in the number of $100 million-plus contracts for Azure.
在我们的商业业务中，对我们微软云平台的需求增加和长期承诺的增长推动了我们的业绩。商业预订超出预期，以恒定汇率计算增长了 30%和 23%。业绩的推动因素是我们核心年金销售模式的强劲执行，以及 Azure 和 Microsoft 365 中 1000 万美元以上合同数量的增长。此外，我们还看到 Azure 中 1 亿美元以上合同数量的增加。
作为商业模式，显然不是好的模式。
Commercial remaining performance obligation increased 22% and 21% in constant currency to $259 billion. Roughly 40% will be recognized in revenue in the next 12 months, up 17% year-over-year. The remaining portion, recognized beyond the next 12 months, increased 27%. And this quarter, our annuity mix increased to 98%. In addition to commercial results that were in line with expectations, we also saw some benefit from in-period revenue recognition across Microsoft 365 commercial, Azure, and our on-premises server business.
商业剩余履约义务按固定汇率计算增长了 22%和 21%，达到 2590 亿美元。大约 40%将在未来 12 个月内确认为收入，同比增长 17%。剩余部分将在未来 12 个月后确认，增长了 27%。本季度，我们的年金组合增加到 98%。除了符合预期的商业业绩外，我们还看到 Microsoft 365 商业版、Azure 和我们的本地服务器业务在期间收入确认方面的一些收益。
At a company level, Activision contributed a net impact of approximately 3 points to revenue growth, with a 2-point drag on operating income growth and had a negative $0.05 impact to earnings per share. A reminder that this net impact includes adjusting for the movement of Activision content from our prior relationship as a third-party partner to first-party and includes $911 million from purchase accounting adjustments, integration, and transaction-related costs. FX did not have a significant impact on our results and was roughly in line with expectations on total company revenue, segment-level revenue, COGS, and operating expense growth.
在公司层面，动视对收入增长的净影响约为 3 个百分点，对营业收入增长造成了 2 个百分点的拖累，并对每股收益产生了负面影响，约为 0.05 美元。请注意，这一净影响包括将动视内容从我们之前作为第三方合作伙伴的关系调整为第一方的影响，并包括 9.11 亿美元的购置会计调整、整合和交易相关成本。外汇对我们的业绩没有显著影响，总公司收入、部门级收入、销售成本和运营费用增长大致符合预期。
Microsoft Cloud revenue was $38.9 billion and grew 22%, roughly in line with expectations. Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage decreased 2 points year-over-year to 71%. This was slightly better than expected due to improvement in Azure, although the gross margin percentage decrease year-over-year continues to be driven by scaling our AI infrastructure. Company gross margin dollars increased 13% and 14% in constant currency, and gross margin percentage was 69%, down 2 points year-over-year, driven by the lower Microsoft Cloud gross margin noted earlier as well as the impact from purchase accounting adjustments, integration and transaction-related costs from the Activision acquisition.
微软云收入为 389 亿美元，同比增长 22%，大致符合预期。微软云的毛利率同比下降 2 个百分点至 71%。由于 Azure 的改善，这略好于预期，尽管毛利率同比下降仍然是由于我们 AI 基础设施的扩展所致。公司毛利额增长了 13%，按不变汇率计算增长了 14%，毛利率为 69%，同比下降 2 个百分点，这主要是由于前面提到的微软云毛利率下降以及动视收购带来的购置会计调整、整合和交易相关成本的影响。
Operating expenses increased 12%, lower than expected due to our focus on cost efficiencies and ongoing prioritization work. Operating expense growth included 9 points from the Activision acquisition. At a total company level, headcount at the end of September was 8% higher than a year ago. Excluding the growth of the Activision acquisition, headcount was 2% higher. Operating income increased 14% and operating margins were 47%, down 1 point year-over-year. Excluding the net impact from the Activision acquisition, operating margins were up 1 point as we continue to drive efficiencies across our businesses as we invest in AI infrastructure and capabilities.
运营费用增加了 12%，低于预期，因为我们专注于成本效率和持续的优先工作。运营费用增长中包括了来自动视收购的 9 个百分点。在公司整体层面，截至 9 月底的员工人数比去年增加了 8%。不包括动视收购的增长，员工人数增加了 2%。运营收入增加了 14%，运营利润率为 47%，同比下降了 1 个百分点。排除动视收购的净影响，运营利润率上升了 1 个百分点，因为我们在投资于 AI 基础设施和能力的同时，继续推动业务效率。
Now to our segment results. Revenue from Productivity and Business Processes was $28.3 billion and grew 12% and 13% in constant currency, ahead of expectations, driven by better-than-expected results across all businesses. M365 commercial cloud revenue increased 15% and 16% in constant currency with business trends that were as expected. The better-than-expected result was due to a small benefit from the in-period revenue recognition noted earlier.
现在来看我们的分部业绩。生产力和业务流程的收入为 283 亿美元，按固定汇率计算增长了 12%和 13%，超出预期，主要是由于所有业务的业绩都好于预期。M365 商业云收入增长了 15%，按固定汇率计算增长了 16%，业务趋势符合预期。好于预期的结果是由于之前提到的期间收入确认带来的小幅收益。
ARPU growth was primarily driven by E5 as well as M365 Copilot. Paid M365 commercial seats grew 8% year-over-year with installed base expansion across all customer segments. Seat growth was driven by our small and medium business and frontline worker offerings. M365 commercial cloud revenue represents nearly 90% of total M365 commercial products and cloud services. M365 commercial products revenue increased 2% and 3% in constant currency, ahead of expectations, primarily due to the benefit from in-period revenue recognition noted earlier.
ARPU 增长主要由 E5 和 M365 Copilot 推动。付费 M365 商业席位同比增长 8%，所有客户群体的安装基数都有所扩大。席位增长由我们的中小企业和一线员工产品推动。M365 商业云收入几乎占 M365 商业产品和云服务总收入的 90%。M365 商业产品收入增长 2%，按固定汇率计算增长 3%，超出预期，主要得益于前期收入确认的好处。
M365 consumer products and cloud services revenue increased 5% and 6% in constant currency. M365 consumer cloud revenue increased 6% and 7% in constant currency, with continued momentum in M365 consumer subscriptions, which grew 10% to 84.4 million. M365 consumer cloud revenue represents 85% of total M365 consumer products and cloud services.
M365 消费产品和云服务收入在固定汇率下增长了 5%和 6%。M365 消费云收入在固定汇率下增长了 6%和 7%，M365 消费订阅持续增长，增长了 10%达到 8440 万。M365 消费云收入占 M365 消费产品和云服务总收入的 85%。
LinkedIn revenue increased 10% and 9% in constant currency, slightly ahead of expectations with growth across all lines of business. Dynamics revenue grew 14%, driven by Dynamics 365, which grew 18% and 19% in constant currency with continued growth across all workloads and continued share gains.
LinkedIn 的收入增长了 10%，按固定汇率计算增长了 9%，略高于预期，所有业务线均实现增长。Dynamics 的收入增长了 14%，其中 Dynamics 365 增长了 18%，按固定汇率计算增长了 19%，所有工作负载均持续增长，并继续获得市场份额。
As a reminder, Dynamics 365 represents about 90% of total Dynamics revenue. Segment gross margin dollars increased 11% and 12% in constant currency, and gross margin percentage decreased slightly year-over-year, driven by scaling our AI infrastructure. Operating expenses increased 2% and operating income increased 16%.
请记住，Dynamics 365 占 Dynamics 总收入的约 90%。部门毛利额增长了 11%，按固定汇率计算增长了 12%，毛利率同比略有下降，主要是由于我们 AI 基础设施的扩展。运营费用增加了 2%，运营收入增加了 16%。
Next, the Intelligent Cloud segment. Revenue was $24.1 billion, increasing 20% and 21% in constant currency, in line with expectations. Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 33% and 34% in constant currency, with healthy consumption trends that were in line with expectations. The better-than-expected result was due to the small benefit from in-period revenue recognition noted earlier. Azure growth included roughly 12 points from AI services, similar to last quarter. Demand continues to be higher than our available capacity.
接下来是智能云部门。收入为 241 亿美元，增长了 20%，按固定汇率计算增长了 21%，符合预期。Azure 和其他云服务收入增长了 33%，按固定汇率计算增长了 34%，健康的消费趋势符合预期。好于预期的结果是由于之前提到的期间收入确认带来的小幅收益。Azure 的增长包括大约 12 个百分点来自 AI 服务，与上季度相似。需求继续高于我们的可用容量。
Non-AI growth trends were also in line with expectations in total and across regions as customers continued to migrate and modernize on the Azure platform. The non-AI point contribution to Azure growth was sequentially lower by approximately 1 point. In our on-premises server business, revenue decreased 1%. Lower-than-expected transactional purchasing ahead of the Windows Server 2025 launch as well as lower purchasing of licenses running a multi-cloud environment was mostly offset by the benefit from in-period revenue recognition noted earlier.
非人工智能增长趋势总体和各地区均符合预期，因为客户继续在 Azure 平台上迁移和现代化。非人工智能对 Azure 增长的贡献环比下降了约 1 个百分点。在我们的本地服务器业务中，收入下降了 1%。低于预期的 Windows Server 2025 发布前的交易购买以及在多云环境中运行的许可证购买减少，主要被前期收入确认的收益所抵消。
Enterprise and partner services revenue decreased 1% and was relatively unchanged in constant currency. Segment gross margin dollars increased 15%, and gross margin percentage decreased 3 points year-over-year, driven by scaling our AI infrastructure. Operating expenses increased 8% and operating income grew 18%.
企业和合作伙伴服务收入下降了 1%，在恒定汇率下几乎没有变化。该部门的毛利额增加了 15%，毛利率同比下降了 3 个百分点，这主要是由于我们扩大了 AI 基础设施。运营费用增加了 8%，运营收入增长了 18%。
Now to More Personal Computing. Revenue of $13.2 billion increasing 17% with 15 points of net impact from the Activision acquisition. Results were above expectations, driven by gaming and search. Windows OEM and devices revenue increased 2% year-over-year as better-than-expected results in Windows OEM due to mix shift to higher monetizing markets was partially offset by the lower-than-expected results in devices due to execution challenges in the commercial segment.
现在谈谈更多个人计算业务。收入为 132 亿美元，增长 17%，其中动视暴雪收购带来了 15 个百分点的净影响。业绩超出预期，主要由游戏和搜索业务推动。Windows OEM 和设备收入同比增长 2%，因为 Windows OEM 的业绩好于预期，原因是市场组合转向更高盈利市场，但由于商业领域执行挑战导致设备业绩低于预期，部分抵消了这一增长。
Search and news advertising revenue ex-TAC increased 18% and 19% in constant currency, ahead of expectations, primarily due to continued execution improvement. We saw rate expansion in addition to healthy volume growth in both Edge and Bing. And in gaming, revenue increased 43% and 44% in constant currency with 43 points of net impact from the Activision acquisition. Results were ahead of expectations, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in both first- and third-party content as well as consoles.
搜索和新闻广告收入（不含流量获取成本）在固定汇率下分别增长了 18%和 19%，超出预期，主要由于执行力的持续提升。我们看到 Edge 和 Bing 的费率扩张以及健康的量增长。在游戏方面，收入在固定汇率下增长了 43%和 44%，其中动视暴雪收购带来了 43 个百分点的净影响。结果超出预期，主要由于第一方和第三方内容以及游戏机的表现强于预期。
Xbox content and services revenue increased 61% with 53 points of net impact from the Activision acquisition. Segment gross margin dollars increased 16% and 17% in constant currency with 12 points of net impact from the Activision acquisition. Gross margin percentage was relatively unchanged year-over-year. Our strong execution on margin improvement in gaming and search was offset by sales mix shift to those businesses. Operating expenses increased 49% with 51 points from the Activision acquisition. Operating income decreased 4%.
Xbox 内容和服务收入增长了 61%，其中动视收购带来了 53 个百分点的净影响。该部门的毛利额增长了 16%，按不变汇率计算增长了 17%，其中动视收购带来了 12 个百分点的净影响。毛利率与去年同期相比基本保持不变。我们在游戏和搜索方面的强劲执行力提升了利润率，但被销售组合转向这些业务所抵消。运营费用增长了 49%，其中动视收购带来了 51 个百分点的影响。营业收入下降了 4%。
Now back to total company results. Capital expenditures, including finance leases, were $20 billion, in line with expectations, and cash paid for PP&E was $14.9 billion. Roughly half of our cloud and AI-related spend continues to be for long-lived assets that will support monetization over the next 15 years and beyond. The remaining cloud and AI spend is primarily for servers, both CPUs and GPUs, to serve customers based on demand signals.
现在回到整个公司的业绩。资本支出，包括融资租赁，为 200 亿美元，符合预期，支付的 PP&E 现金为 149 亿美元。我们在云和 AI 相关支出中，大约一半继续用于支持未来 15 年及更长时间内货币化的长期资产。剩余的云和 AI 支出主要用于服务器，包括 CPU 和 GPU，以根据需求信号为客户服务。
Cash flow from operations was $34.2 billion, up 12%, driven by strong cloud billings and collections, partially offset by higher supplier employee and tax payments. Free cash flow was $19.3 billion, down 7% year-over-year, reflecting higher capital expenditures to support our cloud and AI offerings. This quarter, other income expense was negative $283 million, significantly more favorable than anticipated due to foreign currency remeasurement and net gains on investments. Our losses on investments accounted for under the equity method were as expected. Our effective tax rate was approximately 19%. And finally, we returned $9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
经营活动产生的现金流为 342 亿美元，同比增长 12%，主要受强劲的云计费和收款推动，部分被较高的供应商员工和税款支付所抵消。自由现金流为 193 亿美元，同比下降 7%，反映了支持我们云和人工智能产品的较高资本支出。本季度，其他收入支出为负 2.83 亿美元，由于外币重估和投资净收益，结果显著好于预期。我们按权益法核算的投资损失符合预期。我们的有效税率约为 19%。最后，我们通过分红和股票回购向股东返还了 90 亿美元。
Now moving to our Q2 outlook, which unless specifically noted otherwise, is on a U.S. dollar basis. First, FX. With the weaker U.S. dollar and assuming current rates remain stable, we expect FX to increase total revenue and segment level revenue growth by less than 1 point. We expect FX to have no meaningful impact to COGS or operating expense growth.
现在转到我们的第二季度展望，除非特别说明，否则均以美元为基础。首先，外汇。由于美元走弱，并假设当前汇率保持稳定，我们预计外汇将使总收入和分部门收入增长增加不到 1 个百分点。我们预计外汇对销售成本或运营费用增长没有实质性影响。
Our outlook has many of the trends we saw in Q1 continue through Q2. Customer demand for our differentiated solutions should drive another quarter of strong growth. In commercial bookings, we expect strong growth on a growing expiry base driven by increased long-term commitments to our platform and strong execution across core annuity sales motions. As a reminder, larger long-term Azure contracts, which are more unpredictable in their timing, can drive increased quarterly volatility in our bookings growth rate.
我们的展望显示，Q1 中看到的许多趋势将在 Q2 继续。客户对我们差异化解决方案的需求应推动另一个季度的强劲增长。在商业预订方面，我们预计在不断增长的到期基础上实现强劲增长，这得益于对我们平台的长期承诺增加以及核心年金销售动作的强劲执行。请注意，较大的长期 Azure 合同，其时间安排更难以预测，可能会导致我们预订增长率的季度波动性增加。
Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage should be roughly 70%, down year-over-year, driven by the impact of scaling our AI infrastructure. We expect capital expenditures to increase on a sequential basis, given our cloud and AI demand signals. As I said last quarter, we will stay aligned and, if needed, adjust to the demand signals we see. As a reminder, there can be quarterly spend variability from cloud infrastructure build-outs and the timing of delivery of finance leases.
微软云的毛利率应大约为 70%，同比下降，主要受我们 AI 基础设施扩展的影响。鉴于我们的云和 AI 需求信号，我们预计资本支出将按顺序增加。正如我上个季度所说，我们将保持一致，并在需要时根据我们看到的需求信号进行调整。提醒一下，云基础设施建设和融资租赁交付时间可能导致季度支出波动。
Next, segment guidance, starting with Productivity and Business Processes. We are the market leader when it comes to knowledge-based Copilots and agents in the enterprise space, and we are focused on continuing to gain share across our productivity solutions. Therefore, we expect revenue in Productivity and Business Processes to grow between 10% and 11% in constant currency or $28.7 billion to $29 billion. M365 commercial cloud revenue growth should be approximately 14% in constant currency with moderating seat growth across customer segments and ARPU growth through E5 and M365 Copilot.
接下来是分部指导，从生产力和业务流程开始。在企业领域，我们是基于知识的副驾驶和代理的市场领导者，我们专注于继续在我们的生产力解决方案中获得市场份额。因此，我们预计生产力和业务流程的收入将在固定汇率下增长 10%到 11%，达到 287 亿美元到 290 亿美元。M365 商业云收入增长在固定汇率下应约为 14%，客户细分市场的席位增长有所放缓，并通过 E5 和 M365 Copilot 实现 ARPU 增长。
For H2, we expect revenue growth to remain relatively stable compared to Q2. We continue to see growth in M365 Copilot seats, and we expect the related revenue to continue to grow gradually over time. For M365 commercial products, we expect revenue to decline in the low single digits. As a reminder, M365 commercial products include on-premises components of M365 suites. So, our quarterly revenue growth can have variability primarily from in-period revenue recognition depending on the mix of contracts. M365 consumer cloud revenue growth should be in the mid-single digits driven by M365 subscriptions.
对于下半年，我们预计收入增长将与第二季度相比保持相对稳定。我们继续看到 M365 Copilot 席位的增长，并预计相关收入将随着时间的推移逐渐增长。对于 M365 商业产品，我们预计收入将下降个位数。请记住，M365 商业产品包括 M365 套件的本地组件。因此，我们的季度收入增长可能会因合同组合的不同而在期间收入确认上有所变化。M365 消费者云收入增长应在中个位数，由 M365 订阅推动。
For LinkedIn, we expect revenue growth of approximately 10%, driven by continued growth across all businesses. And in Dynamics 365, we expect revenue growth to be in the mid- to high teens, driven by continued growth across all workloads. Next, Intelligent Cloud. Helping our customers transform and grow with innovative cloud and AI solutions is driving continued growth in Azure. Therefore, we expect revenue in Intelligent Cloud to grow between 18% and 20% in constant currency or $25.55 billion to $25.85 billion.
对于LinkedIn，我们预计收入增长约为10%，这得益于所有业务的持续增长。而在Dynamics 365方面，由于各项工作负载的持续增长，我们预计收入增长将在中至高双位数之间。接下来是智能云。通过创新的云和人工智能解决方案帮助客户实现转型和增长，推动了Azure的持续增长。因此，我们预计智能云的收入将在不变汇率下增长18%至20%，或达到255.5亿至258.5亿美元。
Revenue will continue to be driven by Azure, which, as a reminder, can have quarterly variability primarily from in-period revenue recognition depending on the mix of contracts. In Azure, we expect Q2 revenue growth to be 31% to 32% in constant currency, driven by strong demand for our portfolio of services. We expect consumption growth to be stable compared to Q1, and we expect to add more sequential dollars to Azure than any other quarter in history. We expect the contribution from AI services to be similar to last quarter, given the continued capacity constraints as well as some capacity that shifted out of Q2.
收入将继续由 Azure 推动，提醒一下，Azure 的季度波动性主要取决于合同组合的不同，从而影响当期收入确认。在 Azure 方面，我们预计第二季度的收入增长将在恒定汇率下达到 31%至 32%，这主要得益于我们服务组合的强劲需求。我们预计消费增长将与第一季度持平，并且我们预计 Azure 的顺序收入增长将超过历史上任何一个季度。鉴于持续的容量限制以及部分容量从第二季度转移，我们预计 AI 服务的贡献将与上个季度相似。
And in H2, we still expect Azure growth to accelerate from H1 as our capital investments create an increase in available AI capacity to serve more of the growing demand. And in our on-premises server business, we expect revenue to decline in the low to mid-single digits on a prior year comparable that benefited from purchasing ahead of Windows Server 2012 end of support. And in Enterprise and partner services, we expect revenue growth to be in the low single digits.
在下半年，我们仍然预计 Azure 的增长将比上半年加速，因为我们的资本投资增加了可用的 AI 容量，以满足日益增长的需求。在我们的本地服务器业务中，我们预计收入将同比下降低至中个位数，因为去年同期受益于 Windows Server 2012 停止支持前的采购。在企业和合作伙伴服务方面，我们预计收入增长将在低个位数。
Now to More Personal Computing. We continue to make decisions to prioritize strategic higher-margin opportunities within each of our consumer businesses. Our outlook reflects the improvement in gross and operating margins from this prioritization work across gaming, search, and devices. We expect revenue in More Personal Computing to be $13.85 billion to $14.25 billion. Windows OEM and devices revenue should decline in the low to mid-single digits. We expect Windows OEM revenue growth in line with the PC market to be more than offset by a decline in devices as the trends from Q1 continue.
接下来是“更多个人计算”业务。我们继续在各个消费者业务中优先考虑具有战略意义的高利润机会。这一优先决策体现在游戏、搜索和设备业务中毛利率和营业利润率的改善。我们预计“更多个人计算”业务的收入将在138.5亿至142.5亿美元之间。Windows OEM和设备收入预计将下降低至中个位数。随着第一季度的趋势延续，Windows OEM收入增长与PC市场保持一致，但设备收入的下降将超过其增幅。
Search and news advertising ex-TAC revenue growth should be in the high teens, with continued growth in both volume and revenue per search. This will be higher than overall search and news advertising revenue growth, which we expect to be in the high single digits. And in gaming, we expect revenue to decline in the high single digits due to hardware. We expect Xbox content and services revenue growth to be relatively flat. We're excited about last week's launch of Call of Duty, where we saw the most Game Pass subscriber adds we've ever seen on a launch day.
搜索和新闻广告的除去流量获取成本（ex-TAC）收入增长预计将达到高双位数，因搜索量和每次搜索收入的持续增长。这将高于整体搜索和新闻广告收入的增长率，我们预计后者将为高个位数。在游戏业务方面，由于硬件的原因，我们预计收入将下降高个位数。我们预计Xbox内容和服务的收入增长将相对持平。我们对上周《使命召唤》的发布感到兴奋，该游戏创下了我们在发布日获得最多Game Pass订阅用户的记录。
There are two things about the launch that are different than the Call of Duty launch a year ago, where revenue was mostly recognized in the quarter of purchase. First, the game is available on Game Pass so for players who play through Game Pass, the subscription revenue is recognized over time. Second, the game requires an online connection to play so even for players who purchased the standalone game, revenue recognition will also occur ratably over time.
关于这次发布，有两点与一年前的《使命召唤》发布不同，当时的收入主要在购买季度内确认。首先，游戏可以通过 Game Pass 游玩，因此对于通过 Game Pass 游玩的玩家，订阅收入会随着时间的推移而确认。其次，游戏需要在线连接才能玩，因此即使是购买独立游戏的玩家，收入确认也会随着时间的推移按比例进行。
Now back to company guidance. We expect COGS to grow between 11% and 13% in constant currency or to be between $21.9 billion to $22.1 billion, and operating expense to grow approximately 7% in constant currency or to be between $16.4 billion and $16.5 billion. This should result in another quarter of operating margin expansion. Other income and expense is expected to be roughly negative $1.5 billion, primarily driven by our share of the expected loss from OpenAI, which is accounted for under the equity method. As a reminder, we do not recognize mark-to-market gains or losses on equity method investments.
现在回到公司指引。我们预计 COGS 将在不变汇率下增长 11%到 13%，或在 219 亿美元到 221 亿美元之间，运营费用将在不变汇率下增长约 7%，或在 164 亿美元到 165 亿美元之间。这应该会导致另一个季度的运营利润率扩张。其他收入和支出预计大约为负 15 亿美元，主要是由于我们根据权益法核算的 OpenAI 预期损失份额所致。提醒一下，我们不会确认权益法投资的市值增减。
As you heard from Satya, our strategic partnership and investment in OpenAI has been pivotal in building and scaling our AI business and positioning us as the leader in the AI platform wave. And lastly, we expect our Q2 effective tax rate to be approximately 19%.
正如你从萨提亚那里听到的，我们在 OpenAI 的战略合作伙伴关系和投资对于建立和扩展我们的 AI 业务以及将我们定位为 AI 平台浪潮的领导者至关重要。最后，我们预计第二季度的有效税率约为 19%。
In closing, we remain focused on strategically investing in the long-term opportunities that we believe drive shareholder value. Monetization from these investments continues to grow, and we're excited that only 2.5 years in, our AI business is on track to surpass $10 billion of annual revenue run rate in Q2. This will be the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone. We are committed to growing this leadership position across our entire Microsoft Cloud while maintaining our disciplined focus on cost management and prioritization across every team.
最后，我们将继续专注于在我们认为能够推动股东价值的长期机会中进行战略性投资。这些投资的变现收入持续增长，让我们感到振奋的是，仅仅2年半时间，我们的人工智能业务预计将在第二季度实现年化收入超过100亿美元的目标。这将成为我们历史上最快达到这一里程碑的业务。我们致力于在整个Microsoft Cloud中扩大这一领先地位，同时在各团队中保持对成本管理和优先次序的严格关注。
With that, let's go to Q&A, Brett.
那么，布雷特，我们进入问答环节吧。
Brett Iversen 布雷特·艾弗森
Thanks, Amy. We'll now move over to Q&A. Out of respect for others on the call, we request that participants please only ask one question. Operator, can you please repeat your instructions?
谢谢，Amy。我们现在进入问答环节。为了尊重其他参与者，我们请求每位参与者只提一个问题。接线员，您能重复一下您的指示吗？
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
[操作员说明] 我们的第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Keith Weiss。请继续。
Keith Weiss 基思·怀斯
Congratulations on a really solid quarter. So, Satya, the expansion of capabilities, the speed of innovation, the magnitude of the opportunities ahead for generative AI makes this the most exciting period for software I've seen in my 25 years of covering this space. And based upon this call, it seems like you share that excitement. But in my investor conversation, that excitement also feeds two related questions, and they both have to do with constraints.
祝贺你们度过了一个非常稳固的季度。那么，萨提亚，能力的扩展、创新的速度、生成式人工智能前方机会的巨大程度，使得这是我在报道这个领域的 25 年中见过的最激动人心的时期。基于这次电话会议，似乎你也分享了这种兴奋。但在我与投资者的对话中，这种兴奋也引发了两个相关的问题，它们都与限制有关。
And the first is like what are the internal constraints or guardrails that Microsoft has when it comes to investing behind these innovations, particularly in relation to the funding of future generations of foundational models, where people were talking about price tags, you want to spend the tens of billions or even $100 billion-plus?
首先，微软在支持这些创新投资方面有哪些内部限制或指导原则，特别是在资助下一代基础模型时？人们提到了巨额投入的成本，您是否计划投入数百亿美元，甚至超过1000亿美元？
And then on the other side of the spectrum, what are the external constraints that Microsoft sees in building out this capacity to meet the demand and capture the opportunity, particularly constraints in your ability to power all these new data centers being built out and powered in an environmentally sustainable fashion? I'd love to get the Microsoft perspective on both those questions.
然后在光谱的另一端，微软在建立这种能力以满足需求和抓住机会时看到的外部限制是什么，特别是在以环保可持续的方式为所有这些新建和供电的数据中心提供动力的能力方面的限制？我很想了解微软对这两个问题的看法。
Satya Nadella 萨提亚·纳德拉
Thank you, Keith, for those questions. I think on the first point, ultimately, when you think about, let's say, capital outlay for training because that's essentially what you're asking, it is going to be rate limited by your monetization of inference, given generation, right? So just like in the past, we would allocate capital to build out cloud based on the demand signal we were seeing and then we would then project the demand, and that's what we would build for.
谢谢你，基思，提出这些问题。我认为在第一个问题上，最终，当你考虑，比如说，培训的资本支出，因为这基本上是你在问的问题，它将受到你对推理的货币化的限制，考虑到生成，对吧？所以就像过去一样，我们会根据我们看到的需求信号分配资本来建立云，然后我们会预测需求，这就是我们要建设的目标。
So, you can think of training essentially as that, right, which is you're building the next-generation model so that then you have a more capable model that then drives more inference demand, right? So ultimately, even with all the scaling laws and what have you, I think you ultimately will normalize to having a pace.
所以，你可以把训练基本上看作是这样，对吧，就是你在构建下一代模型，这样你就有了一个更强大的模型，从而推动更多的推理需求，对吧？所以最终，即使有所有的扩展法则和其他因素，我认为最终你会趋于一个节奏。
In fact, I think the best way to think about even is given that Moore's Law effectively is working on the sort of silicon and system size, so it's just not compute, right, it's efficiencies in compute, it's data as well as algorithms. You will want to sort of keep on that curve, which is you really want to refresh your fleet with the Moore's Law every year and then effectively depreciate it over the period of the life cycle of it.
实际上，我认为最好这样来理解这一点，即摩尔定律在硅片和系统规模上有效地发挥作用，这不仅仅是计算能力的提升，对计算效率、数据以及算法的优化也同样重要。您会希望沿着这一趋势前进，也就是说，您真的需要每年根据摩尔定律来更新设备，并在其生命周期内逐步折旧。
And then the inference demand ultimately will cover how much we invest in training because that's, I think, at the end of the day, you're all subject to ultimately demand. So, the second piece of the external constraints, we have run into, obviously, lots of external constraints because this demand all showed up pretty fast, right? I mean, if you think about even the most hit product of this generation all are in our cloud, right, whether it's ChatGPT, whether it's Copilot, whether it's GitHub Copilot or even DAX Copilot, I mean, pick the top four or five products of this generation, they're all sort of in and around our ecosystem.
然后，推理需求最终将决定我们在训练上的投资，因为我认为，归根结底，你们都受到最终需求的影响。因此，外部限制的第二部分，我们显然遇到了很多外部限制，因为这种需求出现得非常快，对吧？我的意思是，如果你考虑一下这一代最受欢迎的产品，所有这些都在我们的云中，无论是 ChatGPT，还是 Copilot，或者是 GitHub Copilot，甚至是 DAX Copilot，我的意思是，挑选这一代的前四或五个产品，它们都在我们的生态系统中或周围。
And so therefore, we ran into a set of constraints, which are everything because DCs don't get built overnight. So, there is DCs, there is power. And so that's sort of been the short-term constraint. Even in Q2, for example, some of the demand issues we have or our ability to fulfill demand is because of, in fact, external third-party stuff that we leased moving up. So that's the constraints we have. But in the long run, we do need effectively power and we need DCs. And some of these things are more long lead. But I feel pretty good that going into the second half of even this fiscal year, that some of that supply/demand will match up.
因此，我们遇到了一系列限制，因为数据中心不是一夜之间建成的。所以，有数据中心，有电力。这就是短期的限制。即使在第二季度，例如，我们的一些需求问题或我们满足需求的能力，实际上是因为我们租赁的外部第三方资源的变动。这就是我们面临的限制。但从长远来看，我们确实需要有效的电力和数据中心。其中一些事情需要更长的时间。但我对进入本财年下半年时，供需关系能够匹配感到相当乐观。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Brent Thill with Jefferies. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。请继续。
Brent Thill 布伦特·希尔
Amy, good to hear the reacceleration in the back half for Azure. I guess many are asking, 34% growth in Q1 falling to low 30s. I know the comp is a couple of points harder, but is there anything else you're contemplating in that guide for Q2 to see that deceleration other than a tougher comp?
艾米，很高兴听到下半年 Azure 的加速。我想很多人都在问，第一季度的增长率为 34%，下降到低 30%。我知道比较基数更难了几分，但在第二季度的指引中，除了更难的比较基数之外，你还考虑了什么导致这种减速吗？
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
Thanks, Brent. Maybe this is a great question because I can sort of reiterate some of the points I made and tie them together a little bit. In Q1, the 34% in CC, as we talked about, that upside versus the 33% that we had guided to was primarily due to some revenue recognition benefits. And so, I think about that on a sort of a pure consumption basis and AI as being 33%.
谢谢，布伦特。也许这是一个很好的问题，因为我可以重申我所提出的一些观点，并将它们稍微联系在一起。在第一季度，正如我们所讨论的，34%的 CC 增长，相对于我们指导的 33%的增长，主要是由于一些收入确认的好处。因此，我认为从纯消费的角度来看，AI 的增长是 33%。
And you think about 1 point or 2 of decel that we've guided to, and the majority of that is due to, unfortunately, some supply pushouts that I mentioned and then Satya reiterated in terms of AI supply coming online that we counted on. The underlying consumption growth is stable Q1 to Q2. And so, to your question on some ins and outs, it is certainly some ins and outs.
你考虑到我们指导的 1 到 2 个点的减速，其中大部分不幸是由于我提到的一些供应推迟，然后 Satya 在 AI 供应上线方面重申了这一点。基础消费增长从第一季度到第二季度是稳定的。因此，关于你提到的一些进出，确实有一些进出。
I do, as you heard, have confidence as we get a good influx of supply across the second half of the year, particularly on the AI side that we'll be better able to do some supply-demand matching and hence, while we're talking about acceleration in the back half. I'll also take the opportunity to say, when you see usage in AI workloads, we always intend to think about that as just a GPU exercise. The importance of having GPUs and CPUs be able to run these workloads is also important. So that's a piece of the acceleration in H2 as well.
正如您听到的，我确实有信心，在今年下半年，我们会迎来大量的供应，尤其是在人工智能方面，这将使我们更好地进行供需匹配，因此我们才会提到下半年的加速发展。我也想借此机会强调，当我们看到人工智能工作负载的使用时，我们不应只将其视为一个GPU的任务。让GPU和CPU都能运行这些工作负载同样重要，这也是下半年加速的一部分原因。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Mark Moerdler with Bernstein. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自 Bernstein 的 Mark Moerdler。请继续。
Mark Moerdler 马克·莫德勒
Congratulations on the quarter. The question every investor obviously asks is a question on the CapEx growth and the CapEx spend. Obviously, half of that facility is an equivalent that have a longer life, but the other half is the rest of the components. Can you give any color on how you think of that growth? Does it return to the traditional approach, where basically CapEx is going to grow in line or slightly slower than cloud revenue? And if so, any sense of the timing? Do we have enough facilities online by sometime next year, et cetera? Any color would be appreciated.
祝贺这个季度。每位投资者显然都会问一个关于资本支出增长和资本支出花费的问题。显然，其中一半的设施是具有较长寿命的等效设施，但另一半是其他组件。您能否提供一些关于您如何看待这种增长的见解？它是否会回归传统方法，即资本支出基本上与云收入同步增长或略微放缓？如果是这样，时间上有什么感觉吗？我们是否会在明年某个时候有足够的设施上线，等等？任何见解都将不胜感激。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
Thanks, Mark. I think in some ways, it's helpful to go back to the cloud transition that we worked on over a decade ago, I think, in the early stages. And what you did see and you'll see us do in the same time is you have to build to meet demand. Unlike the cloud transition, we're doing it on a global basis in parallel as opposed to sequential, given the nature of the demand.
谢谢，Mark。我认为在某种程度上，回顾我们十多年前进行的云转型是很有帮助的，特别是在早期阶段。您会发现，我们现在也在采用类似的方式来应对需求。不同于云转型，这次我们在全球范围内并行推进，而不是按顺序进行，这也是根据当前需求的特性所做的调整。
And then as long as we continue to see that demand grow, you're right, the growth in CapEx will slow and the revenue growth will increase. And those two things, to your point, get closer and closer together over time. The pace of that entirely depends really on the pace of adoption.
然后，只要我们继续看到需求增长，你说得对，资本支出的增长将会放缓，而收入增长将会增加。正如你所说，这两者随着时间的推移会越来越接近。其速度完全取决于采用的速度。
And to Satya's point, some of that spend goes towards building the next training infrastructure so you won't see all of it in COGS. Some of it goes to OpEx when you're spending it on training. But in general, that's a healthy way to think about the balance as that over time those do and should like the last cycle get closer together.
正如 Satya 所说，其中一部分支出用于建立下一个训练基础设施，因此你不会在 COGS 中看到所有支出。当你在培训上花费时，其中一部分会计入运营费用。但总体而言，这是一种健康的方式来考虑平衡，因为随着时间的推移，这些支出确实应该像上一个周期一样逐渐接近。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Karl Keirstead with UBS. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自瑞银的 Karl Keirstead。请继续。
Karl Keirstead 卡尔·基尔斯特德
I'm actually not going to ask a question about the numbers, but Satya and Amy, I'd love to ask a question about OpenAI. Since the print three months ago, we investors have been hit with a torrent of media stories about OpenAI and Microsoft. And I'd love to give Microsoft an opportunity to frame the relationship. It seems to me it's critically important.
实际上，我并不打算问关于数字的问题，但 Satya 和 Amy，我想问一个关于 OpenAI 的问题。自三个月前的报道以来，我们投资者被大量关于 OpenAI 和微软的媒体报道所轰炸。我希望能给微软一个机会来阐述这种关系。在我看来，这至关重要。
But we have been, I think, everyone on the line picking up signals that perhaps Microsoft wants to diversify somewhat at the model layer and offer customers choice. So, Satya, I'd love to get your framing of the relationship. And then in terms of the numbers, maybe this is a little bit more for you, Amy, but how does Microsoft manage the demands on CapEx from helping OpenAI with its scaling ambitions? And how do you manage the impact on other income that you just gave us some color on?
不过，我认为，我们每个人都在接收到一些信号，可能微软希望在模型层面上有所多样化，并为客户提供选择。所以，萨提亚，我很想了解你对这种关系的看法。然后在数字方面，也许这更多是给你的，艾米，但微软如何管理帮助 OpenAI 实现其扩展目标对资本支出的需求？你们如何管理对其他收入的影响，你刚才给我们提供了一些信息？
Satya Nadella 萨提亚·纳德拉
Sure. Thanks, Karl. So, I'd say first, the partnership for both sides, that's OpenAI and Microsoft, has been super beneficial. After all, we effectively sponsored what is one of the most highest-valued private companies today when we invested in them and really took a bet on them and their innovation four, five years ago. And that has led to great success for Microsoft. That's led to great success for OpenAI.
当然。谢谢，卡尔。我想首先说，这次合作对双方来说——即 OpenAI 和微软——都非常有利。毕竟，当我们在四五年前投资于他们并真正押注于他们的创新时，我们实际上赞助了今天最有价值的私人公司之一。这为微软带来了巨大的成功，也为 OpenAI 带来了巨大的成功。
And we continue to build on it, right? So, we serve them with world-class infrastructure on which they do their innovation in terms of models, on top of which we innovate on both the model layer with some of the post-training stuff we do as well as some of the small models we build. And then, of course, all of the product innovation, right? One of the things that my own sort of conviction of OpenAI and what they were doing came about when I started seeing something like GitHub Copilot as a product get built or DAX Copilot get built or M365 Copilot get built.
我们继续在此基础上进行建设，对吧？因此，我们为他们提供世界级的基础设施，他们在此基础上进行模型方面的创新，我们在模型层面进行创新，包括我们进行的一些后训练工作以及我们构建的一些小模型。当然，还有所有的产品创新，对吧？我对 OpenAI 及其所做工作的信念之一是在我开始看到像 GitHub Copilot、DAX Copilot 或 M365 Copilot 这样的产品被构建时产生的。
So, we have a fantastic portfolio of innovation that we build on top of that. And the same also, I would say, we are investors. We feel very, very good about sort of our investment stake in OpenAI. And so, our focus, and we're always in constant dialogue with them in a partnership like this where both sides have achieved mutual success at the pace at which we've achieved it, that means we need to kind of push each other to do more, to capture the moment and that's what we plan to do, and we intend to keep building on it.
因此，我们拥有一个非常出色的创新组合，我们在此基础上进行构建。同样，我也会说，我们是投资者。我们对在 OpenAI 的投资持股感到非常非常满意。因此，我们的重点是，我们始终与他们保持持续对话，在这样的合作伙伴关系中，双方都以我们所取得的速度实现了共同的成功，这意味着我们需要相互推动，做得更多，把握时机，这就是我们的计划，我们打算继续在此基础上进行构建。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
And maybe to your other two questions, Karl, Listen, I'm thrilled with their success and need for supply from Azure and infrastructure and really what it's meant in terms of being able to also serve other customers for us. It's important that we continue to invest capital to meet not only their demand signal and needs for compute but also from our broader customers.
也许对于你的另外两个问题，卡尔，听着，我对他们的成功以及对 Azure 和基础设施的需求感到兴奋，这在能够为我们服务其他客户方面也有重要意义。我们继续投资资本以满足他们的需求信号和计算需求以及我们更广泛客户的需求是很重要的。
That's partially why you've seen us committing the amount of capital we've seen over the past few quarters is our commitment to both grow together and for us to continue to grow the Azure platform for customers beyond them. And so, I don't really think of it as how do you balance it. It's just we have customers who have needs and real use cases and delivering value today. And if we can't meet that, we need to work to meet it. And that means working harder and faster to make sure we do that, which is what the team is committed to do.
这就是为什么在过去几个季度中你看到我们投入了大量资本，因为我们致力于共同成长，并继续为客户扩展 Azure 平台。因此，我并不认为这是一个如何平衡的问题。我们有客户，他们有需求和实际的用例，并且今天就需要交付价值。如果我们无法满足这些需求，我们就需要努力去满足。这意味着我们需要更加努力和快速地确保做到这一点，这也是团队所承诺的。
Second piece of your question, I think, was on the impact to other income. And not to get too accounting-heavy on the earnings phone call, but I would say just a reminder, this is under the equity method, which means we just take our percentage of losses every quarter. And those losses, of course, are capped by the amount of investment we make in total, which we did talk about in the Q this quarter as being $13 billion. And so over time, that's just the constraint and it's a bit of a mechanical entry. And so, I don't really think about managing that. That's the investment and acceleration that OpenAI is making in themselves and we take a percentage of that.
我想你问题的第二部分是关于对其他收入的影响。为了避免在收益电话会议上过多涉及会计内容，我想提醒一下，这属于权益法，这意味着我们每季度只承担我们比例的损失。当然，这些损失是由我们总投资金额所限制的，我们在本季度的 Q 中提到这一金额为 130 亿美元。因此，随着时间的推移，这只是一个限制，并且有点像机械录入。因此，我并不真正考虑管理这一点。这是 OpenAI 在自身投资和加速的过程，我们从中获取一定比例。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Kash Rangan with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自高盛的 Kash Rangan。请继续。
Kash Rangan 卡什·兰甘
Satya, when you talked about the investment cycle, these models are getting bigger, more expensive, but you also pointed out to how the inference phase were likely to get paid. How does that cycle look like an inference for Microsoft? Where are the products and the applications that will show up on the Microsoft P&L as a result of the inference rate of AI kicking in?
Satya，当你谈到投资周期时，这些模型变得更大、更昂贵，但你也指出推理阶段可能会获得报酬。对于微软来说，这个周期的推理是什么样的？随着 AI 推理率的提高，哪些产品和应用程序将出现在微软的损益表上？
Satya Nadella 萨提亚·纳德拉
Thanks, Kash. I mean, the good news for us is that we're not waiting for that inference to show up, right? If you sort of think about the point, we even made that this is going to be the fastest growth to $10 billion of any business in our history, it's all inference, right?
谢谢，Kash。我的意思是，对我们来说，好消息是我们不需要等待那个推理出现，对吧？如果你考虑一下这个观点，我们甚至提到这将是我们历史上任何业务最快增长到 100 亿美元的情况，这全都是推理，对吧？
每季度200亿的资本支出换来每年100亿的新增收入，微软是最早期的科技公司，也是最急着转型的科技公司。
One of the things that may not be as evident is that we're not actually selling raw GPUs for other people to train. In fact, that's sort of a business we turn away because we have so much demand on inference that we are not taking what I would -- in fact, there's a huge adverse selection problem today where people -- it's just a bunch of tech companies still using VC money to buy a bunch of GPUs.
我们可能不太明显的一件事是，我们实际上并没有出售原始 GPU 供其他人训练。事实上，这是一种我们拒绝的业务，因为我们在推理方面的需求非常大，以至于我们没有接受我所说的——实际上，今天存在一个巨大的逆向选择问题，人们——只是一堆科技公司仍在使用风险投资资金购买大量 GPU。
We kind of really are not even participating in most of that because we are literally going to the real demand, which is in the enterprise space or our own products like GitHub Copilot or M365 Copilot. So, I feel the quality of our revenue is also pretty superior in that context.
我们实际上并没有参与其中的大部分，因为我们实际上是面向真正的需求，即企业领域或我们自己的产品，如 GitHub Copilot 或 M365 Copilot。因此，我觉得在这种情况下，我们的收入质量也相当优越。
And that's what gives us even the conviction, to even Amy's answers previously, about our capital spend is if this was just all about sort of a bunch of people training large models and that was all we got, then that would be ultimately still waiting, to your point, for someone to actually have demand which is real. And in our case, the good news here is we have a diversified portfolio. We're seeing real demand across all of that portfolio.
这就是让我们有信心的原因，甚至对艾米之前关于我们资本支出的回答也是如此。如果这仅仅是一些人在训练大型模型，而这就是我们所得到的一切，那么最终我们仍然会等待，正如你所说，等待某人真正有需求。而在我们的情况下，好消息是我们有一个多元化的投资组合。我们在整个投资组合中看到了真实的需求。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
And Kash, maybe just to add a little bit to what Satya is saying. I think a part of his two answers is that what you're seeing is this number we're talking about, the $10 billion across inference and our apps is already what that momentum and that investment and that progress and that revenue is what builds the next cycle of training, right? And so, it's that circle as opposed to, oh, we're doing training now and then inference. Much of the training investments that are -- that fuel this revenue growth came before and we already funded that work. And so, that's an important part.
而且，Kash，也许可以稍微补充一下 Satya 所说的。我认为他两个回答的一部分是，你所看到的这个数字——我们谈论的 100 亿美元，涉及推理和我们的应用程序——已经是这种势头、投资、进展和收入构建下一个训练周期的基础，对吧？所以，这是一个循环，而不是说我们现在在进行训练然后再进行推理。许多推动这种收入增长的训练投资是在之前进行的，我们已经为这项工作提供了资金。因此，这是一个重要的部分。
Kash Rangan 卡什·兰甘
That's, to your point, that you invest now and you can get the growth later, even if you slow down the CapEx, right, that's what you're trying to tell us?
那就是你的观点，你现在投资，之后可以获得增长，即使你放慢资本支出，对吧，这就是你想告诉我们的？
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
That's the cycle that is important to understand.
这就是需要理解的循环。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Mark Murphy with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自摩根大通的马克·墨菲。请继续。
Mark Murphy 马克·墨菲
I'm wondering if you can shed any more light just on the nature of the supply limitations that you're mentioning that are impacting Azure in Q2, where that impact might be incrementally just a touch more than we expected? Is it more the GPU supply? Is there some element of power cooling or the ability to wire up the networks? And Amy, should we infer that the supply is constraining Azure growth by roughly a couple of few points in Q2 or am I overestimating that?
我想知道您是否可以进一步说明您提到的供应限制的性质，这些限制在第二季度对 Azure 产生了影响，这种影响可能比我们预期的略多一些？是更多的 GPU 供应问题吗？是否有一些电力冷却或网络连接能力的因素？艾米，我们是否应该推断供应在第二季度大约限制了 Azure 增长几个百分点，还是我高估了这一点？
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
Maybe to answer both those questions, Mark, very directly, I wouldn't think about it component logic in my Q2 answer. The supply pushout, as Satya said, was third parties that are delivering later than we had expected, that get pushed mainly into the second half of the year and in general, Q3. So that's third parties where we have tended to buy supply inclusive of kits so it's complete end-to-end third-party delivery.
也许为了直接回答这两个问题，马克，我在第二季度的回答中不会考虑组件逻辑。正如萨提亚所说，供应推迟是因为第三方的交付时间比我们预期的要晚，主要推迟到下半年，通常是第三季度。所以这是第三方的情况，我们倾向于购买包括套件在内的供应，因此是完整的端到端第三方交付。
In terms of the impact, as I was saying, when you think about having flat consumption Q1 to Q2, there really are only two things that impact that difference and one was the help we got in Q1 from the revenue and accounting help, and then Q2 has been the supply pushout.
就影响而言，正如我所说，当你考虑从第一季度到第二季度的消费持平时，实际上只有两件事影响了这种差异，一是我们在第一季度从收入和会计方面得到的帮助，然后第二季度是供应的推迟。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Raimo Lenschow with Barclays. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自巴克莱的 Raimo Lenschow。请继续。
Raimo Lenschow 雷莫·伦肖
If you talk about the market at the moment because you were first with Copilot, you had identified a lot with Copilots and now we're talking agents. Can you, kind of -- Satya, how do you think about that? And to me, it looks like an evolution that we're discovering how to kind of productize AI better, et cetera. So how do you think about that journey between Copilots, agents and maybe what's coming next?
如果你谈论当前的市场，因为你是第一个推出 Copilot 的，你与 Copilot 有很多联系，现在我们在谈论代理。你能不能，Satya，你是怎么想的？对我来说，这看起来像是一种进化，我们正在探索如何更好地将 AI 产品化等等。那么你如何看待 Copilot、代理之间的旅程，以及接下来可能会发生什么？
Satya Nadella 萨提亚·纳德拉
Sure. The system we have built is Copilot, Copilot Studio, agents and autonomous agents. You should think of that as the spectrum of things, right? So ultimately, the way we think about how this all comes together is you need humans to be able to interface with AI. So, the UI layer for AI is Copilot. You can then use Copilot Studio to extend Copilot. For example, you want to connect it to your CRM system, to your office system, to your HR system. You do that through Copilot Studio by building agents effectively.
当然。我们构建的系统是 Copilot、Copilot Studio、代理和自主代理。你应该将其视为事物的光谱，对吧？所以最终，我们认为这一切的结合方式是需要人类能够与 AI 进行交互。因此，AI 的 UI 层是 Copilot。然后你可以使用 Copilot Studio 来扩展 Copilot。例如，你想将其连接到你的 CRM 系统、办公系统、HR 系统。你通过在 Copilot Studio 中有效地构建代理来实现这一点。
You also build autonomous agents. So, you can use even that's the announcement we made a couple of weeks ago is you can even use Copilot Studio to build autonomous agents. Now these autonomous agents are working independently, but from time to time, they need to raise an exception, right? So autonomous agents are not fully autonomous because at some point, they need to either notify someone or have someone input something. And when they need to do that, they need a UI layer and that's where again, it's Copilot.
您还可以构建自主代理。因此，您甚至可以使用我们几周前发布的公告中提到的 Copilot Studio 来构建自主代理。现在，这些自主代理正在独立工作，但有时它们需要引发异常，对吧？所以自主代理并不是完全自主的，因为在某些时候，它们需要通知某人或让某人输入一些东西。当它们需要这样做时，它们需要一个 UI 层，这就是 Copilot 的作用。
So, Copilot, Copilot agents built-in Copilot Studio, autonomous agents built in Copilot Studio, that's the full system we think that comes together, and we feel very, very good about the position. And then, of course, we are taking the underlying system services across that entire stack that I just talked about, making it available in Azure, right? So, you have the raw infrastructure if you want it. You have the model layer independent of it. You have the AI app server in Azure AI, right?
所以，Copilot，内置于 Copilot Studio 的 Copilot 代理，内置于 Copilot Studio 的自主代理，这就是我们认为完整的系统，我们对这个位置感到非常非常满意。当然，我们正在将整个堆栈的底层系统服务提供出来，就像我刚才提到的那样，使其在 Azure 中可用，对吧？所以，如果你需要的话，你有原始基础设施。你有独立的模型层。你在 Azure AI 中有 AI 应用服务器，对吧？
So, everything is also a building block service in Azure for you to be able to build. In fact, if you want to build everything that we have built in the Copilot stack, you can build it yourself using the AI platform. So that's sort of, in simple terms, our strategy, and that's kind of how it all comes together.
所以，Azure 中的一切也是一个构建块服务，供您构建。事实上，如果您想构建我们在 Copilot 堆栈中构建的所有内容，您可以使用 AI 平台自行构建。所以简单来说，这就是我们的策略，这就是它如何结合在一起的。
Brett Iversen 布雷特·艾弗森
Operator, we have time for one last question.
操作员，我们还有时间回答最后一个问题。
Operator 操作员
And the last question will come from the line of Rishi Jaluria with RBC. Please proceed.
最后一个问题将由 RBC 的 Rishi Jaluria 提问。请继续。
Rishi Jaluria 里希·贾卢里亚
I want to go and think a little bit about Copilot. How we should be thinking about kind of numbers here with the recategorization? It seems like that was maybe softer in the past than expected or maybe with the numbers this quarter starting to pick up. Can you maybe walk us through what you're seeing on that? And maybe more importantly, how we should be thinking about your overall AI strategy on consumer versus enterprise, especially now with the stock on the fold?
我想深入了解一下Copilot。在重新分类的情况下，我们应该如何考虑相关的数据？过去的表现似乎可能比预期要弱一些，但本季度的数据似乎有所回升。您能否向我们解释一下当前的情况？或许更重要的是，我们应该如何看待您在消费者和企业领域的整体AI战略，特别是在当前股价表现的情况下？
Satya Nadella 萨提亚·纳德拉
Yes. On the first part, Rishi, to your question, I think we feel very, very good about the momentum we have in the commercial Copilot, right? As I said in my remarks and Amy talked about, this is the fastest growth of a new suite in M365. If I compare it to what we saw even way back in E3 or E5 or the transition from O to M, this is really much faster, right? It's the numbers of penetration of the Fortune 500 and then the fact that they're coming back for more seats and what have you. So, it's very strong in that context.
是的。关于第一个问题，Rishi，我认为我们对商业 Copilot 的势头感到非常非常好，对吧？正如我在发言中提到的，Amy 也谈到了，这是 M365 中一个新套件的最快增长。如果我将其与我们在 E3 或 E5 甚至从 O 到 M 的过渡中看到的情况进行比较，这确实要快得多，对吧？这是财富 500 强的渗透率，然后是他们回来购买更多席位的事实等等。所以，在这种情况下，它非常强劲。
The other thing I'd like to mention is that we want this to be something that is systemic, right, because people need to be able to put the security controls, then they need to deploy, then there's skilling and then there's change management. So, this is not like you just -- it's not a tool like when I talk about Copilot, Copilot Studio, agents. It's really as much about a new way to work. And sometimes I describe it as what happened throughout the '90s with PC penetration.
我想提到的另一件事是，我们希望这成为一种系统性的东西，对吧，因为人们需要能够设置安全控制，然后他们需要部署，然后是技能培训，然后是变更管理。所以，这不像是一个工具，就像我谈论 Copilot、Copilot Studio、代理时那样。这实际上更多的是一种新的工作方式。有时我将其描述为 90 年代 PC 普及过程中发生的事情。
After all, if you take a business process like forecasting, what was it like pre e-mail and Excel and post e-mail and Excel, that's the type of change that you see with Copilot. But overall, we feel great about the rate of progress and the penetration. And then on the consumer side, look, for us, the exciting part here is to be able to use the same investment we are making in the commercial where we have structural strength and then beyond the offense.
毕竟，如果你把像预测这样的业务流程拿来比较，看看在电子邮件和 Excel 出现之前和之后的变化，这就是你在 Copilot 中看到的那种变化。但总体而言，我们对进展速度和渗透率感到非常满意。然后在消费者方面，对我们来说，令人兴奋的部分是能够利用我们在商业领域的投资，在我们拥有结构性优势的地方，然后超越进攻。
One of the things that I think I hope you all catch in our earnings is ex-TAC, our revenue, when it comes to what we describe as search, news and ads, is growing faster than market. So, it's fantastic to see that. And so that's kind of our consumer business, which in Microsoft's large scope, it's sort of even a $10-plus billion business or sometimes go missing. But in our case, it is actually a fantastic growth business that's growing faster than market.
我希望你们在我们的收益中注意到的一件事是，扣除流量获取成本后的收入，在我们所描述的搜索、新闻和广告方面，增长速度超过了市场。所以，看到这一点非常棒。这就是我们的消费者业务，在微软的大范围内，它甚至是一个超过 100 亿美元的业务，有时会被忽视。但在我们的情况下，它实际上是一个增长速度超过市场的出色增长业务。
We feel good about how we will use AI in LinkedIn. In fact, LinkedIn is a consumer business as you know. You saw even this week, they announced some new capabilities for both consumers and, in their case, even recruiting. So, we think that AI, the same investment gets monetized even through LinkedIn's innovation.
我们对在 LinkedIn 中使用 AI 的方式感到满意。事实上，正如您所知，LinkedIn 是一家面向消费者的企业。您甚至在本周看到，他们宣布了一些针对消费者的新功能，并且在他们的情况下，甚至包括招聘。因此，我们认为 AI 的投资通过 LinkedIn 的创新也能实现盈利。
And gaming, of course, is another place where you'll see some of these things apply. And Windows, right? So, the place where I think I'm excited about is Copilot+ PCs. For us, it's not about having a disconnected edge. It's about having hybrid AI where the rebirth of sort of the PC as the edge of AI is going to be one of the most exciting things for developers.
当然，游戏也是你会看到这些应用的另一个领域。还有 Windows，对吧？所以，我感到兴奋的地方是 Copilot+ 电脑。对我们来说，这不是关于一个孤立的边缘，而是关于混合 AI，其中 PC 作为 AI 边缘的重生将是开发者最令人兴奋的事情之一。
So, we feel well positioned, quite frankly, with the same investment. So, this is -- that's the thing. We're not a conglomerate here. We are sort of one company. That means we invest once and then we have all these categories that benefit from that, and that's the theory of the firm for us. And so, we feel good about all of that coming together.
所以，坦率地说，我们觉得用同样的投资，我们处于一个很好的位置。所以，这就是——这就是重点。我们不是一个企业集团。我们算是一家公司。这意味着我们投资一次，然后我们有所有这些受益的类别，这就是我们的公司理论。因此，我们对这一切的结合感到满意。
苹果和Google明显更有优势，他们让微软走在前面，搭便车。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
And maybe just to add one piece because I think Rishi, now that I'm listening and thinking through the question, it feels like you're wondering like, why am I not seeing the Copilot, if you've made all this progress and the results, and the answer is you already are. In that M365 commercial number, we've seen that seat growth but those seats that we're adding, the majority of them are driven by frontline worker and small businesses. Those have a lower ARPU point.
也许我再补充一点，因为我在听和思考这个问题时，觉得你可能在想，为什么我没有看到 Copilot，如果你们已经取得了所有这些进展和结果，答案是你已经看到了。在那个 M365 商业数字中，我们已经看到了席位增长，但我们增加的那些席位，其中大多数是由一线工人和小型企业推动的。这些的每用户平均收入较低。
And so, it masks some of the ARPU that we're already seeing not just from E5, which continues to contribute, but also this quarter, additional impact from Copilot. So, as we go forward, being able -- that is where you're going to see the impact will be in ARPU and M365 commercial, as Satya said, I think you'll see the impact of Copilot engagement, frankly, across the same ex-TAC number.
因此，它掩盖了我们已经看到的一些 ARPU，不仅来自持续贡献的 E5，还有本季度来自 Copilot 的额外影响。因此，随着我们前进，正如 Satya 所说，您将看到影响将在 ARPU 和 M365 商业中体现，我认为您会看到 Copilot 参与的影响，坦率地说，在相同的 ex-TAC 数字中。
Brett Iversen 布雷特·艾弗森
Thanks, Rishi. That wraps up the Q&A portion of today's earnings call. Thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with all of you again soon.
谢谢，Rishi。这就结束了今天财报电话会议的问答环节。感谢大家今天的参与，我们期待很快再次与大家交流。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.
谢谢。这次会议到此结束。您现在可以断开线路。祝您度过愉快的一天。
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