2025-01-16 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Transcript
Call Start: 01:00 January 1, 0000 2:12 AM ET
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM)
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call
January 16, 2025 01:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Jeff Su - Director, IR
Wendell Huang - SVP, Finance & CFO
C.C. Wei - Vice Chairman & CEO
Conference Call Participants
Gokul Hariharan - JPMorgan
Laura Chen - Citigroup
Charlie Chan - Morgan Stanley
Brett Simpson - Arete Research
Bruce Lu - Goldman Sachs Group
Arthur Lai - Macquarie
Rick Hsu - Daiwa
Robert Sanders - Deutsche Bank
Brad Lin - Bank of America
Jeff Su
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference and Conference Call.
大家下午好，欢迎参加台积电2024年第四季度财报发布会暨电话会议。
This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.
我是Jeff Su，台积电投资人关系部总监，也是今天的主持人。
Today's event is being webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials.
今天的活动正在通过台积电官网www.tsmc.com进行网络直播，您也可以在那里下载财报相关资料。
If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.
如果您是通过电话会议加入的，您的电话线路将处于仅听模式。
The format for today's event will be as follows: First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter 2024, followed by our guidance for the first quarter 2025.
今天活动的流程如下：首先由台积电资深副总裁兼首席财务官黄仁昭先生总结2024年第四季度的运营状况，并提供2025年第一季度的业绩展望。
Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages.
随后，黄先生将与台积电董事长兼首席执行官魏哲家博士共同传达公司的重要讯息。
Then we will open both the floor and the line for the question-and-answer session.
之后，我们将开放现场与电话会议线路进行问答环节。
As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.
一如既往，我想提醒各位，今天的讨论可能包含前瞻性声明，这些声明存在重大风险和不确定性，实际结果可能与这些前瞻性声明有重大差异。
Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.
请参阅我们新闻稿中的安全港声明。
And now, I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.
现在，我将把麦克风交给台积电首席财务官黄仁昭先生，请他为我们总结运营情况并提供本季度的业绩指引。
Wendell Huang
黄仁昭
Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the fourth quarter of 2024. After that, I will provide the guidance for the first quarter of 2025.
谢谢杰夫。各位下午好。感谢大家今天的参与。我的演讲将从2024年第四季度的财务亮点开始。之后，我将提供2025年第一季度的指引。
Fourth quarter revenue increased 14.3% sequentially in NT, supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies. Gross margin increased by 1.2 percentage points sequentially to 59%, mainly reflecting a higher capacity utilization rate and productivity gains, partially offset by the dilution of 3-nanometer ramp-up. With operating leverage, total operating expenses accounted for 10% of net revenue. Thus, operating margin increased by 1.5 percentage points sequentially to 49%. Overall, our fourth quarter EPS was 14.45 NT and ROE was 36.2%.
第四季度营收按新台币计算环比增长14.3%，这得益于我们行业领先的3纳米和5纳米技术的强劲需求。毛利率环比增长1.2个百分点至59%，主要反映了更高的产能利用率和生产力提升，部分被3纳米产能提升的稀释效应所抵消。通过运营杠杆，总运营费用占净收入的10%。因此，营业利润率环比增长1.5个百分点至49%。总体而言，我们第四季度的每股收益为14.45新台币，股本回报率为36.2%。
Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 3-nanometer process technology contributed 26% of wafer revenue in the fourth quarter. 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 34% and 14%, respectively. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 74% of wafer revenue. On a full year basis, 3-nanometer revenue accounted for 18% of 2024 wafer revenue, 5-nanometer 34%, 7-nanometer 17%. Advanced technologies accounted for 69% of total wafer revenue, up from 58% in 2023.
现在让我们看看按技术划分的收入。第四季度，3纳米工艺技术贡献了26%的晶圆收入。5纳米和7纳米分别占34%和14%。先进技术（定义为7纳米及以下）占晶圆收入的74%。在全年基础上，3纳米收入占2024年晶圆收入的18%，5纳米占34%，7纳米占17%。先进技术占总晶圆收入的69%，高于2023年的58%。
Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC increased 19% quarter-over-quarter to account for 53% of our fourth quarter revenue. Smartphone increased 17% to account for 35%. IoT decreased 15% to account for 5%. Automotive increased 6% to account for 4%, DCE decreased 6% to account for 1%.
接下来看按平台划分的收入贡献。高性能计算（HPC）环比增长19%，占第四季度收入的53%。智能手机增长17%，占35%。物联网（IoT）下降15%，占5%。汽车增长6%，占4%，数据中心设备（DCE）下降6%，占1%。
On a full year basis, HPC increased 58% year-on-year. Smartphone, IoT, Automotive, DCE increased 23%, 2%, 4% and 2%, respectively, in 2024. Overall, HPC accounted for 51% of our 2024 revenue, Smartphone accounted for 35%, IoT accounted for 6%, and Automotive accounted for 5%.
在全年基础上，高性能计算同比增长58%。2024年，智能手机、物联网、汽车和数据中心设备分别增长23%、2%、4%和2%。总体而言，高性能计算占2024年收入的51%，智能手机占35%，物联网占6%，汽车占5%。
Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the fourth quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD2.4 trillion or $74 billion. On the liabilities side, current liabilities increased by TWD184 billion, mainly due to the increase of TWD71 billion in accounts payable and increase of TWD99 billion in the accrued liabilities and others.
接下来看资产负债表。我们在第四季度末持有现金和有价证券2.4兆新台币，即740亿美元。在负债方面，流动负债增加了1,840亿新台币，主要是由于应付账款增加了710亿新台币，应计负债和其他项目增加了990亿新台币。
In terms of financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days declined by one day to 27 days, while inventory days decreased by seven days to 80 days, primarily due to shipment of N3 and N5 wafers.
在财务比率方面，应收账款周转天数减少1天至27天，而库存天数减少7天至80天，主要是由于N3和N5晶圆的出货。
Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the fourth quarter, we generated about TWD620 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD362 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD104 billion for the first quarter 2024 cash dividend. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD241 billion to TWD2.1 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our fourth quarter capital expenditures totaled $11.2 billion.
关于现金流和资本支出。在第四季度，我们从运营中产生了约6,200亿新台币的现金，资本支出3,620亿新台币，并分配了1,040亿新台币作为2024年第一季度的现金股息。总体而言，我们的现金余额增加了2,410亿新台币，季度末达到2.1兆新台币。以美元计算，我们第四季度的资本支出总计112亿美元。
Now, let me recap our performance in 2024. Due to the strong demand for our 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer process technologies, we continue to outperform the foundry industry in 2024. Our revenue increased 30% in U.S. dollar terms to $90 billion, or increased 33.9% in NT to TWD2.89 trillion. Gross margin increased 1.7 percentage points to 56.1%, mainly reflecting improvements in overall capacity utilization, partially offset by 3-nanometer dilution and higher electricity costs.
现在，让我总结一下我们在2024年的表现。由于对我们3纳米和5纳米工艺技术的强劲需求，我们在2024年继续优于晶圆代工行业。我们的收入以美元计算增长30%至900亿美元，或以新台币计算增长33.9%至2.89兆新台币。毛利率增加1.7个百分点至56.1%，主要反映了整体产能利用率的提高，部分被3纳米稀释效应和更高的电力成本所抵消。
With operating leverage, our operating margin increased 3.1 percentage points to 45.7%. Overall, full year EPS increased 39.9% to TWD45.25 and ROE increased 4.1 percentage points to 30.3%. On cash flow. We spent $29.8 billion or TWD956 billion in CapEx, generated TWD1.8 trillion in operating cash flow and TWD870 billion in free cash flow. We pay TWD363 billion in cash dividends in 2024, up 24.5% year-over-year.
通过运营杠杆，我们的营业利润率增加3.1个百分点至45.7%。总体而言，全年每股收益增长39.9%至45.25新台币，股本回报率增加4.1个百分点至30.3%。在现金流方面，我们在资本支出上花费了298亿美元或9,560亿新台币，产生了1.8兆新台币的营运现金流和8,700亿新台币的自由现金流。我们在2024年支付了3,630亿新台币的现金股息，同比增长24.5%。
I've finished my financial summary. Now, let's turn to our current quarter guidance. We expect our business in the first quarter to be impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued growth in AI-related demand. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our first quarter revenue to be between $25 billion and $25.8 billion, which represents a 5.5% sequential decline, or a 34.7% year-over-year increase at the mid-point.
我已经完成了财务摘要。现在，让我们转向当前季度的指引。我们预计第一季度的业务将受到智能手机季节性因素的影响，但部分被人工智能相关需求的持续增长所抵消。基于当前的业务展望，我们预计第一季度的收入将在250亿美元至258亿美元之间，这代表环比下降5.5%，或者在中点处同比增长34.7%。
Based on the exchange rate assumption of $1 to TWD32.8, gross margin is expected to be between 57% and 59%, operating margin between 46.5% and 48.5%. Regarding tax rate, our effective tax rate was 16.7% in 2024. For 2025, we expect our effective tax rate to be between 16% and 17%.
基于1美元兑32.8新台币的汇率假设，毛利率预计在57%至59%之间，营业利润率在46.5%至48.5%之间。关于税率，我们2024年的有效税率为16.7%。对于2025年，我们预计有效税率将在16%至17%之间。
This concludes my financial presentation. Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by talking about our fourth quarter 2024 and first quarter 2025 profitability. Compared to third quarter, our fourth quarter gross margin increased by 120 basis points sequentially to 59%, primarily due to a higher capacity utilization rate and productivity gains, partially offset by dilution from the continued ramp-up of our 3-nanometer technology.
以上是我的财务报告。现在让我转向我们的关键信息。我将首先谈论我们2024年第四季度和2025年第一季度的盈利能力。与第三季度相比，我们第四季度的毛利率环比增加了120个基点至59%，主要是由于更高的产能利用率和生产力提升，部分被我们3纳米技术持续提升产能带来的稀释效应所抵消。
We have just guided our first quarter gross margin to decrease by 100 basis point to 58% at the mid-point. This is primarily due to ramp costs associated with N2 and CoWoS expansion, and the start of dilution from our overseas fabs. As a reminder, six factors determine TSMC's profitability. Leadership technology development and ramp-up, pricing, cost reduction, technology mix, capacity utilization and foreign exchange rate.
我们刚刚指引第一季度毛利率在中点处下降100个基点至58%。这主要是由于与N2和CoWoS扩展相关的提升成本，以及我们海外晶圆厂开始产生的稀释效应。提醒一下，六个因素决定台积电的盈利能力：领先技术开发和提升、定价、成本降低、技术组合、产能利用率和外汇汇率。
Looking at full year 2025, given the six factors, there are a few puts and takes I would like to share. On the one hand, we are working hard to increase our value. The dilution impact from our N3 ramp is expected to gradually reduce and we expect our overall utilization rate to moderately increase in 2025. On the other hand, as we have said before, we forecast 2% to 3% margin dilution impact from the ramp-up of our overseas fabs.
展望2025全年，考虑到这六个因素，我想分享一些利弊因素。一方面，我们正在努力增加我们的价值。预计N3提升产能的稀释影响将逐渐减少，我们预计2025年整体利用率将适度增加。另一方面，正如我们之前所说，我们预测海外晶圆厂的产能提升将带来2%至3%的利润率稀释影响。
The impact is less than 100 basis points in the first quarter of 2025, but we expect it to grow more pronounced throughout the year as our fabs in Kumamoto and Arizona ramp up. We also expect inflationary costs, including higher electricity prices in Taiwan to impact our gross margin by at least 1% in 2025. In addition, there are some ramp-up costs associated with N2 and further conversion of N5 to N3 capacity, which together we expect to impact our gross margin by about 1%.
2025年第一季度的影响不到100个基点，但随着我们在熊本和亚利桑那的晶圆厂提升产能，我们预计这种影响将在全年变得更加明显。我们还预计通胀成本，包括台湾更高的电价，将在2025年对我们的毛利率产生至少1%的影响。此外，还有一些与N2相关的提升成本以及将N5进一步转换为N3产能的成本，我们预计这些因素共同将对我们的毛利率产生约1%的影响。
Finally, we have no control over the foreign exchange rate but that may be another factor in 2025. Longer-term, excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate and considering our global manufacturing footprint expansion plans, we continue to forecast a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable.
最后，我们无法控制外汇汇率，但这可能是2025年的另一个因素。从长期来看，排除外汇汇率的影响并考虑我们全球制造布局扩展计划，我们继续预测53%及以上的长期毛利率是可实现的。
Next, let me talk about our 2025 capital budget and depreciation. Every year our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the future years, and our CapEx and capacity planning is based on the long-term market demand profile. At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years. In 2024, we spent $29.8 billion, as we continue to invest to support our customers growth. With our strong technology leadership and differentiation, we are well-positioned to capture the multi-year structure demand from the industry megatrends of 5G, AI and HPC.
接下来，让我谈谈我们2025年的资本预算和折旧。每年我们的资本支出都是为了预期未来几年的增长，我们的资本支出和产能规划是基于长期市场需求情况。在台积电，更高水平的资本支出总是与未来几年更高的增长机会相关。2024年，我们支出了298亿美元，继续投资以支持客户增长。凭借我们强大的技术领导力和差异化，我们处于有利位置，可以抓住5G、人工智能和高性能计算行业大趋势带来的多年结构性需求。
净利润357亿美元，资本支出298亿美元。
In 2025, we expect our capital budget to be between $38 billion and $42 billion, as we invest to capture the future growth. Out of the $38 billion to $42 billion CapEx for 2025, about 70% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, about 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies, and about 10% to 20% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask making and others.
2025年，我们预计资本预算将在380亿美元至420亿美元之间，我们投资以抓住未来增长。在2025年380亿美元至420亿美元的资本支出中，约70%的资本预算将分配给先进工艺技术，约10%至20%将用于特殊技术，约10%至20%将用于先进封装、测试、光罩制作和其他方面。
Our depreciation expense is expected to increase by high-single-digit percentage year-over-year in 2025, as newly incurred depreciation will be partially offset by other nodes rolling off depreciation. Even as we invest for the future growth with this level of CapEx spending in 2025, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. We also remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increased cash dividend per share on both an annual and quarterly basis.
我们预计2025年的折旧费用将同比增长高个位数百分比，因为新增折旧将部分被其他节点折旧结束所抵消。即使我们在2025年以这种水平的资本支出投资未来增长，我们仍然致力于为股东带来盈利增长。我们也仍然致力于在年度和季度基础上实现可持续且稳步增加的每股现金股息。
Now, let me turn the microphone over to CC.
现在，我将麦克风交给CC。
C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon everyone. First, let me start with conclusion of 2024 and our 2025 outlook. 2024 was a mixed year of recovery for the global semiconductor industry. AI-related demand was strong while our other applications saw only a very mild recovery, as macroeconomic conditions weigh on consumer sentiment and end market demand.
谢谢黄仁昭。各位下午好。首先，让我总结2024年并展望2025年。2024年对全球半导体行业来说是一个复苏参差不齐的年份。人工智能相关需求强劲，而我们的其他应用只有非常温和的复苏，因为宏观经济条件影响了消费者信心和终端市场需求。
Concluding 2024, the Foundry 2.0 industry, which we define as all logic wafer manufacturing, packaging, testing, mask making and others increased 6% year-over-year, slightly lower than our previous forecast. Supported by strong demand for our leading edge process technologies, TSMC's revenue increased 30% year-over-year in U.S. dollar term, outperformed the foundry industry growth.
总结2024年，我们定义为所有逻辑晶圆制造、封装、测试、光罩制作和其他的晶圆代工2.0行业同比增长6%，略低于我们之前的预测。在我们领先工艺技术的强劲需求支持下，台积电的收入以美元计算同比增长30%，优于晶圆代工行业的增长。
Entering 2025, we expect fabless semiconductor inventory to have returned to a healthier level, exceeding 2024. We forecast the Foundry 2.0 industry to grow 10% year-over-year in 2025, supported by robust AI-related demand and a mild recovery in other end market segments. Supported by our technology leadership and broader customer base, we are confident we can continue to outperform the industry growth. We expect 2025 to be another strong growth year for TSMC, and forecast our full year revenue to increase by close to mid-20s percent in U.S. dollar term.
进入2025年，我们预计无晶圆半导体库存将恢复到更健康的水平，超过2024年。我们预测晶圆代工2.0行业在2025年同比增长10%，这得益于强劲的人工智能相关需求和其他终端市场领域的温和复苏。在我们的技术领导力和更广泛的客户基础支持下，我们有信心能够继续优于行业增长。我们预计2025年将是台积电另一个强劲增长的年份，预测全年收入以美元计算将增长接近20%中段。
Now, I will talk about AI demand and TSMC's long-term growth outlook. We observed robust AI-related demand from our customers throughout 2024. Revenue from AI accelerators, which we now define as AI GPU, AI ASICs and HBM controller for AI training and inference in the data center, accounted for close to mid-teens percent of our total revenue in 2024. Even after more than tripling in 2024, we forecast our revenue from AI accelerator to double in 2025, as a strong surge in AI-related demand continues.
现在，我将谈论人工智能需求和台积电的长期增长展望。我们在整个2024年观察到客户对人工智能相关需求的强劲增长。来自人工智能加速器的收入，我们现在将其定义为数据中心中用于人工智能训练和推理的人工智能GPU、人工智能ASIC和HBM控制器，在2024年占我们总收入的接近十几个百分点中段。即使在2024年增长了三倍多之后，我们预测2025年来自人工智能加速器的收入将翻一番，因为人工智能相关需求的强劲增长仍在持续。
As a key enabler of AI applications, the value of our technology platform is increasing as customers rely on TSMC to provide the most advanced process and packaging technologies at scale in the most efficient and cost-effective way. To address the structural increase in the long-term market demand profile, TSMC is working closely with our customer to plan our capacity and investing in leading edge specialty and advanced packaging technologies to support their growth.
作为人工智能应用的关键推动者，随着客户依赖台积电以最高效和最具成本效益的方式大规模提供最先进的工艺和封装技术，我们技术平台的价值正在增加。为了应对长期市场需求结构性增长，台积电正在与客户密切合作规划产能，并投资领先的特殊工艺和先进封装技术以支持他们的增长。
As we have said before, TSMC employs a disciplined and a rough capacity planning system to evaluate and judge the market demand to determine the appropriate capacity build. This is especially important when we have such high forecast demand from AI-related business. At the same time, we are committed to earning a sustainable and healthy return that enable us to continue to invest to support our customers, of course, while delivering profitable growth for our shareholders.
正如我们之前所说，台积电采用严格且粗略的产能规划系统来评估和判断市场需求，以确定适当的产能建设。当我们有来自人工智能相关业务的如此高预测需求时，这一点尤为重要。同时，我们致力于获得可持续和健康的回报，使我们能够继续投资以支持客户，当然，同时为股东带来盈利增长。
Underpinned by our technology leadership and broad customer base, we now forecast the revenue growth from AI accelerators to approach a mid-40% CAGR for the five-year period, starting off the already higher base of 2024. We expect AI accelerators to be the strongest driver of our HPC platform growth and the largest contributor in terms of our overall incremental revenue growth in the next several years.
在我们的技术领导力和广泛的客户基础支撑下，我们现在预测人工智能加速器的收入增长在五年期间将接近40%中段的复合年增长率，这是从2024年已经较高的基础开始的。我们预计人工智能加速器将成为我们高性能计算平台增长的最强驱动力，并在未来几年成为我们整体增量收入增长的最大贡献者。
非常高的增长速度。
Looking ahead, as the world's most reliable and effective capacity provider, TSMC is playing a critical and integral role in the global semiconductor industry. With our technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust, we are well positioned to address the growth from the industry megatrend of 5G, AI and HPC with our differentiated technologies. For the five-year period starting from 2024, we expect our long-term revenue growth to approach a 20% CAGR in U.S. dollar term, fueled by all four of our growth platforms which are smartphone, HPC, IoT and automotive.
展望未来，作为世界上最可靠和最有效的产能提供者，台积电在全球半导体行业中扮演着关键和不可或缺的角色。凭借我们的技术领导力、卓越的制造能力和客户信任，我们有很好的条件通过我们差异化的技术来应对5G、人工智能和高性能计算行业大趋势带来的增长。对于从2024年开始的五年期间，我们预计长期收入增长将以美元计算接近20%的复合年增长率，这得益于我们所有四个增长平台：智能手机、高性能计算、物联网和汽车。
Next, let me talk about our global manufacturing footprint update. All our overseas decisions are based on our customers need, as they value some geographic flexibilities and the necessary level of government support. This is also to maximize the value for our shareholder. In the U.S., we have a long-standing good relationship with the U.S. Government, dating back to even before our Arizona fab project announcement in May 2020. We have received strong commitment and support from the U.S. customers and the U.S. federal, state and city government, and are making substantial progress.
接下来，让我谈谈我们全球制造布局的最新情况。我们所有的海外决策都是基于客户需求，因为他们重视一些地理灵活性和必要的政府支持水平。这也是为了最大化股东价值。在美国，我们与美国政府有着长期良好的关系，甚至可以追溯到2020年5月我们宣布亚利桑那晶圆厂项目之前。我们已经收到了美国客户和美国联邦、州和市政府的强有力承诺和支持，并且正在取得实质性进展。
Building on the successful result of our earlier engineering wafer production, we were able to pull ahead the production schedule of our first fab in Arizona. Our first fab has already entered the high-volume production in 4Q 2024 utilizing N4 process technology with a yield comparable to our fabs in Taiwan. We expect a smooth ramp-up process and with our strong manufacturing capability and execution, we are confident to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability from our fab in Arizona as from our fab in Taiwan.
基于我们早期工程晶圆生产的成功结果，我们能够提前亚利桑那第一座晶圆厂的生产计划。我们的第一座晶圆厂已经在2024年第四季度进入大规模生产，使用N4工艺技术，产量与我们在台湾的晶圆厂相当。我们预计会有一个平稳的产能提升过程，凭借我们强大的制造能力和执行力，我们有信心从亚利桑那的晶圆厂提供与台湾晶圆厂相同水平的制造质量和可靠性。
Our plans for second fab and third fab in Arizona are also on track. These fabs are utilizing even more advanced technologies, such as N3, N2, and A16 based on our customers' need. Thus, TSMC will continue to play a critical and integral role in enabling our customers' success while remaining a key partner in enabling of the U.S. semiconductor industry.
我们在亚利桑那的第二座和第三座晶圆厂的计划也在按计划进行。这些晶圆厂正在使用更先进的技术，如N3、N2和A16，这是基于客户需求。因此，台积电将继续在促进客户成功方面发挥关键和不可或缺的作用，同时仍然是美国半导体行业的关键合作伙伴。
Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan central, prefectural, and local government, our progress is also very good. Our first specialty technology fab in Kumamoto has started volume production at the end of 2024 with record yield. Construction of our second fab, specialty fab, is scheduled to begin this year.
接下来，在日本，感谢日本中央、县和地方政府的大力支持，我们的进展也非常好。我们在熊本的第一座特殊技术晶圆厂已于2024年底开始量产，产量创纪录。我们的第二座特殊晶圆厂计划今年开始建设。
In Europe, we have received strong commitment from the European Commission and the German federal, state and city government. We are progressing smoothly with our plans to build a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany, focusing on automotive and industrial applications.
在欧洲，我们已经收到了欧盟委员会和德国联邦、州和市政府的强有力承诺。我们正在顺利推进在德国德累斯顿建设一座专注于汽车和工业应用的特殊技术晶圆厂的计划。
In Taiwan, we continue to receive support from Taiwan government, and we are investing in and expanding our advanced technology and packaging capacities. Given the robust multi-year demand for our 3 nanometer technology, we continue to expand our 3 nanometer capacity in Tainan Science Park. We are also preparing for multiple phases of 2 nanometer fabs in both Hsinchu and Kaohsiung Science Park to support the strong structural demand from our customers. We are also expanding our advanced packaging facilities across several locations in Taiwan.
在台湾，我们继续得到台湾政府的支持，我们正在投资和扩大我们的先进技术和封装能力。鉴于我们3纳米技术的强劲多年需求，我们继续在台南科学园区扩大3纳米产能。我们也正在新竹和高雄科学园区准备多阶段的2纳米晶圆厂，以支持客户的强劲结构性需求。我们还在台湾的几个地点扩大先进封装设施。
As we have said before, under today's fragmented globalization environment, overseas fab costs are higher for everyone, including TSMC and all other semiconductor manufacturers. We are leveraging our fundamental competitive advantage of manufacturing technology leadership and large-scale manufacturing base to be the most efficient and cost-effective manufacturer in the region that we operate while supporting our customers' growth.
正如我们之前所说，在当今碎片化的全球化环境下，海外晶圆厂成本对所有人都更高，包括台积电和所有其他半导体制造商。我们正在利用我们制造技术领导力和大规模制造基地的基本竞争优势，成为我们运营地区最高效和最具成本效益的制造商，同时支持客户的增长。
Finally, I will talk about N2 and A16 introduction. Our 2 nanometer and A16 technologies lead the industry in addressing the insatiable need for energy-efficient computing, and almost all the innovators are working with TSMC. We expect a number of the new tapeout for 2 nanometer technology in the first two years to be higher than both 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer in their first two years, fueled by both smartphone and HPC applications. N2 will deliver full-node performance and power benefit with 10 to 15 speed improvement at the same power or 20% to 30% power improvement at the same speed, and more than 15% chip density increase as compared with the N3E. N2 is well on track for volume production in second half of 2025 as scheduled, with a ramp profile similar to N3.
最后，我将谈论N2和A16的介绍。我们的2纳米和A16技术在解决对能源高效计算的无止境需求方面引领行业，几乎所有创新者都在与台积电合作。我们预计2纳米技术在前两年的新流片数量将高于3纳米和5纳米在它们前两年的数量，这得益于智能手机和高性能计算应用。与N3E相比，N2将提供完整节点的性能和功耗优势，在相同功耗下速度提高10%至15%，或在相同速度下功耗改善20%至30%，芯片密度增加超过15%。N2按计划将在2025年下半年量产，产能提升曲线与N3相似。
With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P as an extension of N2 family. N2P features further performance and power benefit on top of N2. N2P will support both smartphone and HPC applications, and volume production is scheduled for second half 2026. We will also introduce A16 featuring Super Power Rail, or SPR, a separate offering. TSMC's SPR is an innovative best-in-class backside power delivery solution that is first in the industry to incorporate a novel backside network scheme that preserves gate density and device with flexibility to maximize the product benefit.
通过我们持续改进的策略，我们还推出了N2P作为N2系列的扩展。N2P在N2基础上提供了进一步的性能和功耗优势。N2P将支持智能手机和高性能计算应用，计划在2026年下半年量产。我们还将推出具有超级电源轨（SPR）的A16，这是一个单独的产品。台积电的SPR是一种创新的业界最佳背面供电解决方案，是行业首个采用新型背面网络方案的解决方案，保留了栅极密度和器件灵活性，最大化产品效益。
Compared with the N2P, A16 provide a further 8% to 10% speed improvement at the same power, or 15% to 20% power improvement at the same speed, and additional 7% to 10% chip density gain. A16 is best suitable for specific HPC products with a complex signal route and dense power delivery network. Volume production is scheduled for second half 2026. We believe N2, N2P, A16 and its derivative will further extend our technology leadership position and enable TSMC to capture the growth opportunity well into the future.
与N2P相比，A16在相同功耗下提供额外8%至10%的速度提升，或在相同速度下提供15%至20%的功耗改善，并额外获得7%至10%的芯片密度增益。A16最适合具有复杂信号路由和密集电源分配网络的特定高性能计算产品。量产计划在2026年下半年。我们相信N2、N2P、A16及其衍生产品将进一步扩展我们的技术领导地位，使台积电能够抓住未来的增长机会。
This concludes our key message. And thank you for your attention.
以上是我们的关键信息。感谢您的关注。
# Question-and-Answer Session
Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Thank you C.C. This concludes our prepared statements. Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to please limit your questions to two at a time to allow all the participants an opportunity to ask their questions. Questions will be taken from both the floor and from the call. Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. [Operator Instructions]
谢谢C.C.。以上结束我们的准备陈述。在开始问答环节之前，我想提醒大家请每次将问题限制在两个，以便让所有参与者都有机会提问。我们将接受现场和电话的问题。如果您希望用中文提问，我会在管理层回答您的问题之前将其翻译成英文。[操作说明]
Now we will begin the Q&A session. We'll take the first few questions here from the floor and then go to online. I think maybe left, middle, right. So why don't we start. I think first question Gokul Hariharan from JP Morgan.
现在我们将开始问答环节。我们将先接受现场的几个问题，然后转到在线问题。我想可能是左边、中间、右边。那么让我们开始吧。我想第一个问题来自摩根大通的Gokul Hariharan。
## Gokul Hariharan
高库尔·哈里哈兰
Thanks, Jeff. Happy New Year management team. My first question is on the TSMC's U.S. future strategy. There has been a lot of changes recently, one relaxed N minus 1 restriction. There was a news about that a week back. C.C., you met Elon Musk as well recently. So you said there are a lot of developments that you've discussed. Your key IDM competitor seems to be struggling as well, while your Arizona fab seems to be ramping up quite well.
谢谢杰夫。管理团队新年快乐。我的第一个问题是关于台积电未来在美国的战略。最近有很多变化，一个是放宽了N减1的限制。一周前有这方面的新闻。C.C.，您最近也与埃隆·马斯克会面了。所以您说您讨论了很多进展。您的主要IDM竞争对手似乎也在挣扎，而您的亚利桑那晶圆厂似乎正在很好地提升产能。
So in light of all these, I just wanted to understand the longer-term strategy. Would you start -- would you consider investing in latest node in the U.S. because so far it has been N minus 1. Now you don't have the restriction from the Taiwan government to go and invest in the latest node. What has been your feedback in whatever discussions you have had with the incoming President Trump administration, because they have talked a lot about CHIPS Act and everything but they're also supportive. Your original investment was during President Trump's first term.
鉴于所有这些情况，我只是想了解长期战略。您会开始——您会考虑在美国投资最新节点吗？因为到目前为止一直是N减1。现在您没有来自台湾政府的限制去投资最新节点。在您与即将上任的特朗普政府的任何讨论中，您得到了什么反馈？因为他们谈论了很多关于芯片法案的事情，但他们也是支持的。您最初的投资是在特朗普总统第一任期内进行的。
And lastly, I think -- Wendell, I think last time you had mentioned you're not very keen on taking over any IDM fabs. Has that thinking changed, especially given TSMC has the potential to become even-more stronger partner for the U.S. in terms of bringing up U.S. local manufacturing? Sorry, long question.
最后，我想——黄仁昭，我想上次您曾提到您不太热衷于接管任何IDM晶圆厂。这种想法有变化吗？特别是考虑到台积电有潜力成为美国在提升美国本地制造方面更强大的合作伙伴？抱歉，问题有点长。
## Wendell Huang
黄仁昭
Yes. Okay, thank you, Gokul. Indeed, a very long question. I think Gokul's question is looking at TSMC and our strategies in terms of global expansion, particularly in the U.S. He notes that Taiwan has recently relaxed or said they relaxed the N minus 1 rule and C.C. has met several -- many of our large customers in the U.S. and our Arizona fab is ramping quite well. So his question really is on the longer-term strategy, I believe, three parts. Number one, what is the feedback or sort of discussions ongoing with the next administration in the U.S.? Secondly, would we consider taking over IDM fabs? Has that thinking changed? And last on the new node. Maybe we'll go one by one.
是的。好的，谢谢Gokul。确实是一个很长的问题。我认为Gokul的问题是关于台积电在全球扩张方面的战略，特别是在美国。他注意到台湾最近放宽或说他们放宽了N减1规则，C.C.在美国会见了我们的几个——许多大客户，我们的亚利桑那晶圆厂正在很好地提升产能。所以他的问题实际上是关于长期战略，我相信有三个部分。第一，与美国下一届政府正在进行的反馈或讨论是什么？第二，我们会考虑接管IDM晶圆厂吗？这种想法有变化吗？最后是关于新节点。也许我们可以一个一个回答。
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
I almost forgot your question already. Okay, first one, the technology node, actually, it's not we don't want to ramp up the same technology as in Taiwan. But if you look at it, the one we're ramping up, introduced a new technology into manufacturing. The fab is -- the process is so complicated, so it has to be very close to the R&D people.
我几乎已经忘记你的问题了。好的，第一个，关于技术节点，实际上，并不是我们不想提升与台湾相同的技术。但如果你看看，我们正在提升的是将新技术引入制造。晶圆厂——这个过程非常复杂，所以它必须非常接近研发人员。
So the initial phase of the ramping-up always come from the fab close to R&D. So in that sense, we want to ramp up the same kind of technology in U.S., but that practically is a little bit difficult. So Taiwan will always be first. That answer your question? It's not because of N or N minus 1 certification. No, it's critically we just have to ramp up a new node in Taiwan.
所以提升产能的初始阶段总是来自于靠近研发的晶圆厂。从这个意义上说，我们想在美国提升同样的技术，但实际上这有点困难。所以台湾将永远是第一位的。这回答了你的问题吗？这不是因为N或N减1认证。不，关键是我们必须在台湾提升新节点。
## Gokul Hariharan
高库尔·哈里哈兰
Okay.
好的。
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
And the second, do we change our strategy to expand faster or something, again, this is -- we always say that we build the capacity overseas, it's due to customers need. If my customer has a very high demand, what should I do? I build more fab, right? With the necessary government's support, by the way. Okay, talking about the government, let me assure you that we have a very frank and open communication with the current government and with the future one also. I cannot say anything more than that. Okay, what is --
第二个，我们是否改变战略以更快扩张或其他事情，再次，这是——我们一直说我们在海外建设产能，是因为客户需要。如果我的客户有很高的需求，我应该怎么做？我建更多的晶圆厂，对吧？顺便说一下，需要必要的政府支持。好的，谈到政府，让我向你保证，我们与现任政府和未来政府都有非常坦率和开放的沟通。我不能说更多了。好的，什么是——
## Gokul Hariharan
高库尔·哈里哈兰
IDM fab?
IDM晶圆厂？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
That's my customer. And now that we -- again, our strategy is not based on my IDM competitors' status. They are our very good customers. I like them and they are very important to TSMC's business also. That all I can say. Thank you.
那是我的客户。现在我们——再次，我们的战略不是基于我的IDM竞争对手的状况。他们是我们非常好的客户。我喜欢他们，他们对台积电的业务也非常重要。这是我能说的全部。谢谢。
# Gokul Hariharan
Okay, thanks, C.C. Maybe my next question going to gross margins. So Wendell, we are almost approaching 60% gross margin. Last cycle, we peaked at about 60% towards the peak of the cycle. You are expecting the cycle to even strengthen based on guidance that C.C. provided for both AI as well as some improvement in non-AI. So how should we think about gross margins in this cycle? Is it realistic that we can get to more than 60% gross margin in this upcycle?
好的，谢谢C.C.。也许我的下一个问题是关于毛利率。黄仁昭，我们几乎接近60%的毛利率了。上一个周期，我们在周期高峰时达到了约60%。根据C.C.提供的人工智能以及非人工智能领域有所改善的指导，您预计周期会进一步增强。那么我们应该如何看待这个周期的毛利率？在这个上升周期中，我们能够实现超过60%的毛利率是否现实？
And related to that, could you help us understand the U.S., especially the U.S. fab -- overseas fabs, but especially U.S. fab dilution, what are the key factors there because as you mentioned, yield is already approaching or almost close to Taiwan yield. So is it basically cycle time is longer, or is it that some other costs are much higher in the U.S. fab? Because new fab depreciation is probably fairly similar compared to the Taiwan fab.
与此相关，您能帮助我们了解美国，特别是美国晶圆厂——海外晶圆厂，但特别是美国晶圆厂的稀释效应吗？主要因素是什么？因为正如您提到的，产量已经接近或几乎接近台湾的产量。那么，这基本上是周期时间更长，还是美国晶圆厂的其他一些成本要高得多？因为新晶圆厂的折旧可能与台湾晶圆厂相当相似。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Gokul's second question is on gross margin. Again two parts. He notes gross margin is almost approaching 60%. In 2022, the last cycle, it was also around this type of level. We have said that this year is another very strong growth year for TSMC. So his question is how should we think about gross margins in this current cycle? Can we approach or get to 60% or low 60s type again? And then the second part is more specific to the U.S. in terms of the cost gap. What are the U.S. cost factors leading to the dilution impact?
好的。所以Gokul的第二个问题是关于毛利率。同样分为两部分。他注意到毛利率几乎接近60%。在2022年，上一个周期，它也在这个水平左右。我们已经说过，今年对台积电来说是另一个强劲增长的年份。所以他的问题是，我们应该如何看待这个当前周期的毛利率？我们能否再次接近或达到60%或低60%的水平？然后第二部分更具体地涉及美国的成本差距。导致稀释影响的美国成本因素是什么？
## Wendell Huang
黄仁昭
Okay. Gokul, first question on the gross margin. As we said, there are six factors affecting the profitability. Every year, different factors play different roles. But, for example, if the utilization is extremely high like the last cycle, it is not impossible for us to reach what you just said. And secondly, the U.S. fab cost, it is more expensive in the U.S., mainly because of several reasons. Number one, the smaller scale; number two, the higher price in the supply chain; and number three, the very early stage of the ecosystem. So if you add all these up, as we said, 2% to 3% dilution from our overseas fabs every year in the next five years.
好的。Gokul，关于毛利率的第一个问题。正如我们所说，有六个因素影响盈利能力。每年，不同的因素发挥不同的作用。但是，例如，如果利用率像上一个周期那样极高，我们达到你刚才说的水平并非不可能。其次，关于美国晶圆厂成本，在美国确实更贵，主要是因为几个原因。第一，规模较小；第二，供应链价格较高；第三，生态系统处于非常早期阶段。所以如果把这些都加起来，正如我们所说，在未来五年内，我们的海外晶圆厂每年会带来2%到3%的稀释。
## Gokul Hariharan
高库尔·哈里哈兰
If I use the 2% to 3% and do some math, it feels like the overseas fab is starting at, I don't know, 10% gross margin or 5% gross margin, just adding in factors. Obviously, it's not how it works, but I'm just doing outside in. Is that right? Is that the right kind of ballpark in terms of thinking about margin?
如果我使用2%到3%并做一些计算，感觉海外晶圆厂的起点是，我不知道，10%的毛利率或5%的毛利率，只是加入因素。显然，这不是它的运作方式，但我只是从外部进行推测。这对吗？这是思考毛利率的正确大致范围吗？
## Wendell Huang
黄仁昭
All we can share is the 2% to 3%. Yes.
我们能分享的只有2%到3%。是的。
## Gokul Hariharan
高库尔·哈里哈兰
I don't think TSMC has ever started a fab at 10% gross margin. Thank you.
我不认为台积电曾经以10%的毛利率开始运营晶圆厂。谢谢。
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Gokul, we are working hard to improve it.
Gokul，我们正在努力改进它。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you Gokul. We'll go to the middle. Laura Chen from Citigroup -- Citibank.
好的，谢谢Gokul。我们转到中间。来自花旗集团——花旗银行的Laura Chen。
# Laura Chen
劳拉·陈
Thank you, and congratulations for the good result. I just want to have more details about your review. I mean, I think people are kind of looking for your updated long-term CAGR growth. So I believe that 20% starting from a very -- already very high base in 2024 is a really good long-term objective. But just wondering that aside from the strong AI demand, what's your view on the traditional applications like a PC and the smartphone growth, and particularly for this year?
谢谢，并祝贺你们取得好成绩。我只是想了解更多关于你们评估的细节。我的意思是，我认为人们有点在寻找你们更新的长期复合年增长率。所以我相信从2024年已经非常高的基础开始达到20%是一个非常好的长期目标。但只是想知道，除了强劲的人工智能需求外，你们对传统应用如PC和智能手机增长的看法是什么，特别是今年？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, so Laura's first question is looking -- she notes that we have updated our long-term CAGR to be approaching 20% revenue growth in U.S. dollars, starting off even the high base of 2024. So her question is, of course, AI demand is part of that, but what about smartphone and PC? And I think your question is specific to this year, CC, 2025.
好的，所以Laura的第一个问题是——她注意到我们已经更新了长期复合年增长率，接近20%的美元收入增长，即使是从2024年的高基数开始。所以她的问题是，当然，人工智能需求是其中一部分，但智能手机和PC呢？我想你的问题特别针对今年，C.C.，2025年。
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
This year is still a mild growth for PC and smartphone, but everything is AI-related. So you can start to see why we have confidence to give you a close to 20% CAGR in the next five years. AI, you look at a smartphone, they will put the AI functionality inside. And not only that, so the silicon content will be increased. In addition to that, actually the replacement cycle will be shortened. And also they need to go into the very advanced technology because of -- if you want to put a lot of functionality inside a small chip, you need a much more advanced technology to put those [indiscernible]. Put all together that even smartphone, the unit growth is almost low single-digit, but then the silicon and the replacement cycle and the technology migration, that give us more growth than just a unit growth. Similar reason for PC.
今年PC和智能手机仍然是温和增长，但一切都与人工智能相关。所以你可以开始看到为什么我们有信心在未来五年给你接近20%的复合年增长率。人工智能，你看智能手机，他们会将人工智能功能放在里面。不仅如此，硅含量也会增加。除此之外，实际上更换周期会缩短。而且他们需要进入非常先进的技术，因为——如果你想在一个小芯片里放入很多功能，你需要更先进的技术来放置那些[听不清]。把这些都放在一起，即使智能手机的单位增长几乎是个位数低增长，但随后硅含量、更换周期和技术迁移，这给我们带来的增长超过了单位增长。PC的原因类似。
所有芯片的功能会变得更强大，更强大不一定等于更高的成本占比，但总体很可能是正面的影响。
# Laura Chen
So we can kind of expect those AI-capable devices, they were all based on 2 nanometer next year second half?
所以我们可以期待那些人工智能设备，它们都将基于明年下半年的2纳米技术？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Leading edge technology. That's what I say.
领先的技术。这就是我所说的。
# Laura Chen
Okay, thank you. And also my next question is about AI. I noted that these times you include the HBM controller into your AI business revenues definition. So can you provide us more update about what the HBI base die business opportunities could be? And previously TSMC kind of announced cooperation with the key memory suppliers globally. Can you give us more details or updates on the progress of this business engagement?
好的，谢谢。我的下一个问题是关于人工智能。我注意到这次你们将HBM控制器纳入了人工智能业务收入的定义中。那么你能否为我们提供更多关于HBI基础芯片业务机会的最新情况？之前台积电宣布与全球主要内存供应商合作。你能否给我们提供更多关于这项业务合作进展的细节或最新情况？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you, Laura. So Laura's second question is on HBM controllers. She notes that our definition of AI accelerators includes memory controllers or HBM controllers. So her question is how do we see this opportunity or what is the opportunity for TSMC, and what is the progress of this working with our memory partners?
好的，谢谢Laura。Laura的第二个问题是关于HBM控制器。她注意到我们对人工智能加速器的定义包括内存控制器或HBM控制器。所以她的问题是我们如何看待这个机会，或者对台积电来说机会是什么，以及与我们的内存合作伙伴合作的进展如何？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
We are working with all the memory suppliers, all of them, and that is because of TSMC's logic chip or logic technology more advanced, and that means our customers' requirement. So all of them are working with TSMC. Now, we start to see some of the product coming out, but the high volume, probably you need to wait for another half or one year to see the high volume and big contribution to TSMC's revenue.
我们正在与所有内存供应商合作，所有的供应商，这是因为台积电的逻辑芯片或逻辑技术更先进，这也是我们客户的要求。所以他们都在与台积电合作。现在，我们开始看到一些产品问世，但高产量，可能你需要再等半年或一年才能看到高产量和对台积电收入的重大贡献。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you. We'll move to this side of the room. I guess we have Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.
好的，谢谢。我们移到房间的这一侧。我想我们有来自摩根士丹利的Charlie Chan。
# Charlie Chan
查理·陈
Hey, C.C., Wendell and Jeff. First of all, Happy New Year. I think it's going to be a very exciting year given your bullish outlook and also lots of news going on. Right? So let me start with, overnight the U.S. seems to put a new framework on restricting China's AI business. Right? So I'm wondering whether that will create some business impact to your China business and how are we going to manage it? And also for some chips in the middle, high performers, like crypto mining, autonomous driving chip, do you think those count as cloud AI and would TSMC be able to continue to service your China customers? Thank you.
嘿，C.C.，黄仁昭和杰夫。首先，新年快乐。我认为这将是一个非常令人兴奋的一年，考虑到你们乐观的展望以及正在发生的许多新闻。对吧？所以让我从昨晚开始，美国似乎对限制中国的人工智能业务提出了一个新框架。对吧？所以我想知道这是否会对你们的中国业务产生一些影响，以及我们将如何管理它？另外，对于一些中等、高性能的芯片，如加密货币挖矿、自动驾驶芯片，你认为这些是否算作云人工智能，台积电是否能够继续为你们的中国客户提供服务？谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you, Charlie. So Charlie's first question, if I may, sort of extrapolate or summarizes about the announcements of different types of U.S. export restrictions this week pertaining to China and AI-related chips. So his question is what is the impact to TSMC? How does it impact our business?
好的，谢谢Charlie。所以Charlie的第一个问题，如果我可以推断或总结一下，是关于本周宣布的针对中国和人工智能相关芯片的各种美国出口限制。所以他的问题是对台积电有什么影响？它如何影响我们的业务？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
So far we look at -- we don't have all analysis yet, but the first look is not significant. It's manageable. So not meaning that my customers who are being restricted or something, we are applying for the special permit for them, and we believe that we have confidence that they will get some permission so long as they are not in the AI area, especially automotive industry or even you talk about the crypto mining.
到目前为止，我们看到——我们还没有完成所有分析，但初步看来影响不大。是可控的。所以不是说我的客户受到限制或什么，我们正在为他们申请特别许可，我们相信并有信心他们会获得一些许可，只要他们不在人工智能领域，特别是汽车行业，甚至你提到的加密货币挖矿。
# Charlie Chan
查理·陈
Yes, thank you. This is super helpful. And my second question is actually a very hot topic recently as well, the CPO. I think your main partner, Jensen, came to Taiwan this time probably -- besides meeting you, right, probably he also want to enable this supply chain. So based on your recent technology symposium, right, you already get ready for your COUPE or COUPE optical engine. But do you think the Taiwan supply chain can really facilitate this CPO, because we thought these are key components, the next-generation Rubin schedule could have some issue? So I think this is part of -- first part of question about how you're going to facilitate this CPO supply chain.
是的，谢谢。这非常有帮助。我的第二个问题实际上最近也是一个非常热门的话题，即CPO（芯片光子学）。我认为你们的主要合作伙伴Jensen这次来台湾可能——除了见你之外，对吧，他可能也想启动这个供应链。所以根据你们最近的技术研讨会，你们已经为COUPE或COUPE光学引擎做好准备了。但你认为台湾供应链能否真正促进这个CPO，因为我们认为这些是关键组件，下一代Rubin计划可能会有一些问题？所以我认为这是问题的第一部分——关于你们将如何促进这个CPO供应链。
And secondly to TSMC, your foundry service, do you see significant upside when an [indiscernible] network can migrate to CPO, because -- I ask this because some conventional product like optical transceiver, DSP, could be replaced? Thank you.
其次对台积电，你们的代工服务，当[听不清]网络可以迁移到CPO时，你们是否看到显著的上升空间，因为——我问这个是因为一些传统产品如光学收发器、DSP可能会被替代？谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Well, Charlie's second question is a very specific topic. He wants to know, well, if I can generalize because we certainly don't comment on customers or their products, but in terms of our progress on silicon photonics and CPO, how are we working with customers? How are we preparing as part of our advanced packaging solutions, and what are the opportunities for TSMC as optical moves to silicon photonics and other type of solutions on a general basis?
好的，Charlie的第二个问题是一个非常具体的话题。他想知道，如果我可以概括一下，因为我们当然不会评论客户或他们的产品，但在硅光子学和CPO方面的进展，我们如何与客户合作？我们如何作为先进封装解决方案的一部分做准备，以及当光学转向硅光子学和其他类型的解决方案时，台积电有哪些机会？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Charlie, he's had a very technical question. Silicon photonics, we are working on it, as you said, and we got a good result also. However, a big volume, I don't think it will be in this year, or probably we have to wait for one or one and a half year to -- you can see that contribution or the volume production. The initial results are quite good, no doubt about it. And so my customers are quite happy.
Charlie，他提出了一个非常技术性的问题。硅光子学，正如你所说，我们正在研究它，而且我们也取得了很好的成果。然而，大规模量产，我认为不会在今年，或者可能我们需要等待一年或一年半——你才能看到那种贡献或大规模生产。初步结果相当好，毫无疑问。所以我的客户相当满意。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you, C.C. Operator, we'll now move to the questions online. We'll take the first call from the online participant, please.
好的，谢谢C.C.。操作员，我们现在将转到在线问题。请接通第一位在线参与者的电话。
## Operator
操作员
Yes, first question, Brett Simpson, Arete Research.
是的，第一个问题，来自Arete Research的Brett Simpson。
# Brett Simpson
布雷特·辛普森
Yes, thanks very much. And can I just say congratulations on reaching 100 billion in annual sales in Q4. It's quite a milestone. So my first question is on Arizona. I think, Wendell, you mentioned that we need to see some higher scale. So can you update us on the status of phase two? It looks like the construction of its shell is nearly complete, but would be great to understand more about how you see P2 developing over the course of 2025.
是的，非常感谢。我想祝贺你们在第四季度达到1000亿美元的年销售额。这是一个相当重要的里程碑。所以我的第一个问题是关于亚利桑那州。我想，黄仁昭，你提到我们需要看到更高的规模。那么你能否更新一下第二阶段的状态？看起来其外壳的建设几乎完成，但了解更多关于你如何看待P2在2025年的发展将会很好。
And in terms of pricing U.S. wafers, how are you planning to do this? Will you have a U.S. price and a Taiwan price, or are you more likely to have a global price regardless of where you make the wafers? Thank you.
在美国晶圆定价方面，你们计划如何进行？你们会有美国价格和台湾价格，还是更可能无论在哪里制造晶圆都采用全球价格？谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Brett's question, first question is on Arizona, maybe split into two parts. First is in terms of we have already started the volume production of the first fab. So Brett would like an update on the progress of the second fab, in terms of the construction of the buildings and the shelves, et cetera. And then the second part would be on the pricing of overseas, as we say there's value to our customers. He wants to know do we charge a separate price or is it part of the overall pricing, et cetera, et cetera.
好的。所以Brett的问题，第一个问题是关于亚利桑那州，可能分为两部分。首先是我们已经开始了第一个晶圆厂的量产。所以Brett想了解第二个晶圆厂的进展情况，包括建筑物和架构等的建设。然后第二部分是关于海外定价，正如我们所说，这对我们的客户有价值。他想知道我们是否收取单独的价格，或者它是整体定价的一部分，等等。
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Let me answer the second question first. Do we charge a little bit higher? Yes, we did because of -- we have a value of geographic flexibility. Right? And you guys know, bearing U.S.A is a premium product. Yes, we discuss with our customer and they all agree and happy to work with TSMC, so that we can -- because of the cost structure over there, so it's a little bit higher price over there.
让我先回答第二个问题。我们是否收取稍高的费用？是的，我们确实这样做了，因为——我们有地理灵活性的价值。对吧？而且你们知道，美国制造是一种高端产品。是的，我们与客户讨论，他们都同意并乐于与台积电合作，这样我们就可以——因为那里的成本结构，所以那里的价格稍高一些。
The progress of the first fab is right now in volume production. Second fab, we almost finished all the building and start to put the facility, et cetera, et cetera. And we expect that we'll move the tools this year also. And we have a plan that our third fab probably will start very soon, and we will announce it in the later days. Okay?
第一个晶圆厂的进展目前正在量产中。第二个晶圆厂，我们几乎完成了所有建筑，并开始安装设施等等。我们预计今年也会移入设备。我们有计划，第三个晶圆厂可能很快就会开始，我们将在稍后宣布。好吗？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you, C.C. Brett, does that answer your first question, and do you have a second one?
好的，谢谢C.C.。Brett，这回答了你的第一个问题吗，你还有第二个问题吗？
# Brett Simpson
布雷特·辛普森
Yes, very clear. And the second question, I wanted to get your perspective. Broadcom CEO recently laid out a large SAM for AI hyperscalers building out custom silicon. I think he was talking about a million accelerator clusters from each of the customers he has in the next two or three years. What's TSMC's perspective on all this? I'm sure you've spent a lot of time verifying what hyperscalers are planning over the years to come. And how comfortable are you with the scale of what's being implied here? Thanks.
是的，非常清楚。第二个问题，我想了解你们的看法。博通CEO最近提出了一个关于人工智能超大规模公司构建定制硅的大型可服务市场。我想他提到在未来两三年内，他的每个客户都会有一百万个加速器集群。台积电对此有什么看法？我相信你们花了很多时间验证超大规模公司在未来几年的计划。你们对这里暗示的规模有多大的信心？谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Brett's second question is looking at AI, I guess, specifically AI custom chips or ASICs. He notes that one of our customers recently laid out a very strong or large addressable SAM market for AI hyperscalers using custom silicon. Lots of them talking about clusters of 1 million chips. So he wants to know what is TSMC's view? How do we see this trend in terms of AI ASICs as part of the AI demand megatrend?
好的。所以Brett的第二个问题是关于人工智能，我猜特别是人工智能定制芯片或ASIC。他注意到我们的一个客户最近提出了一个非常强劲或大型的可服务市场，用于使用定制硅的人工智能超大规模公司。他们中的许多人都在谈论百万芯片集群。所以他想知道台积电的观点是什么？我们如何看待这种趋势，即人工智能ASIC作为人工智能需求大趋势的一部分？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Brett, I'm not going to answer the question of the specific number, but let me assure you that whether it's ASIC or it's a graphic, they all need a very leading-edge technology and they are all working with TSMC. Okay? So -- and the second one is, is the demand real? Was this a number that my customer said? I would say that the demand is very strong. That's enough to answer your question, Brett?
Brett，我不会回答具体数字的问题，但让我向你保证，无论是ASIC还是图形处理器，它们都需要非常领先的技术，而且它们都在与台积电合作。好吗？所以——第二个问题是，需求是真实的吗？这是我的客户说的数字吗？我会说需求非常强劲。这足以回答你的问题吗，Brett？
# Brett Simpson
布雷特·辛普森
Yes, that's great. Thank you.
是的，很好。谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you, Brett. Operator, do we have anyone else on the line? It seems not. Then let's --
好的，谢谢Brett。操作员，线上还有其他人吗？似乎没有了。那么让我们--
## Operator
操作员
No, we don't.
不，没有了。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, we don't. Then let's go back to the floor. I think on the left side, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.
好的，没有了。那么让我们回到现场。我想在左侧，来自高盛的Bruce Lu。
# Bruce Lu
卢楚仁
Hi. Thank you for taking my question. To be honest, I'd be a bit surprised that the long-term gross margin target doesn't really change it. I believe TSMC's value is definitely more than selling the -- pass on the cost. I believe that TSMC need to invest a lot more in R&D to maintain their leadership. TSMC suggested or raised the gross margin target in 2022 with higher R&D requirement, with higher profitable target, right? So I asked the same question two quarters ago, which is in the process of price negotiation, which is understandable, but I think the price negotiation is pretty much done. What's the discrepancy here? Why TSMC cannot raise the profitability target?
你好。谢谢你接受我的问题。老实说，我对长期毛利率目标没有真正改变感到有点惊讶。我相信台积电的价值绝对不仅仅是销售——转嫁成本。我相信台积电需要在研发上投入更多资金以保持其领先地位。台积电在2022年提出或提高了毛利率目标，同时提高了研发要求和盈利目标，对吧？所以我在两个季度前问了同样的问题，当时正在进行价格谈判，这是可以理解的，但我认为价格谈判基本上已经完成。这里的差异是什么？为什么台积电不能提高盈利目标？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Bruce's first question, he wants to know again our long-term gross margin, why are we not changing the target of 53% and higher? Okay. He correctly notes that certainly TSMC's value is increasing and certainly TSMC, we need to invest a lot of money in R&D and capacity to support our customers' growth. So we have always had a focus on earning the right return. He also notes in 2022, while our gross margin used to be about 50%, then we raised it to 53% and higher. So his question is why is it not -- and higher, I guess?
好的。所以Bruce的第一个问题，他想再次了解我们的长期毛利率，为什么我们不改变53%及以上的目标？好的。他正确地指出，台积电的价值肯定在增加，而且台积电，我们需要在研发和产能上投入大量资金以支持客户的增长。所以我们一直专注于获得合理的回报。他还指出，2022年，我们的毛利率曾经约为50%，然后我们将其提高到53%及以上。所以他的问题是为什么不是——更高，我猜？
## Wendell Huang
黄仁昭
Hi, Bruce. As we said, six factors affecting the profitability. Every year, different factors have different weights. Now two things to note. Number one, starting from this year, overseas fab expansion, 2 to 3 percentage point impact every year for the next five years. The other things to note. Macro environment uncertainty, which may lead to impacting the global economy, which may lead to end market demand.
你好，Bruce。正如我们所说，有六个因素影响盈利能力。每年，不同因素有不同的权重。现在要注意两件事。第一，从今年开始，海外晶圆厂扩张，未来五年每年影响2到3个百分点。另一件需要注意的事情。宏观环境的不确定性，可能会影响全球经济，从而影响终端市场需求。
Now having said that, we are in the capital-intensive industry, so we will need to have to earn a healthy return to continue to invest, to support our customer, support their growth, and also deliver a profitable growth to our shareholders. And you mentioned about the raising of long-term gross margins back in 2022 to 53% and higher, and we have been able to deliver that in higher part since then. So given all the above, we continue to think that 53% and higher gross margin is achievable and we work very hard to achieve on the higher part.
话虽如此，我们处于资本密集型行业，所以我们需要获得健康的回报以继续投资，支持我们的客户，支持他们的增长，并为我们的股东提供盈利增长。你提到2022年将长期毛利率提高到53%及以上，自那时以来我们一直能够在较高部分实现这一目标。所以考虑到以上所有因素，我们继续认为53%及以上的毛利率是可实现的，我们会非常努力地实现较高部分。
# Bruce Lu
卢楚仁
Okay, I'll try next two quarters. For the CoWoS capacity, TSMC has been very aggressive in expanding the capacity. However, the application is highly concentrated in AI at the current stage, which there are certain noise around it. When can we see non-AI applications such as servers, smartphone or anything else can be -- can start to adapt CoWoS capacity in case there is any fluctuation in the AI demand?
好的，我会在接下来的两个季度再试试。关于CoWoS产能，台积电在扩大产能方面一直非常积极。然而，目前阶段应用高度集中在人工智能上，周围有一些噪音。我们何时能看到非人工智能应用，如服务器、智能手机或其他任何东西可以——可以开始适应CoWoS产能，以防人工智能需求有任何波动？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you Bruce. So Bruce's second question is on CoWoS capacity. In his words, we have been very aggressive to expand the capacity but his concern, it's highly concentrated with AI-related demand. So his question is when do we expect or to see more non-AI application adoption of CoWoS solutions?
好的，谢谢Bruce。所以Bruce的第二个问题是关于CoWoS产能。用他的话说，我们在扩大产能方面一直非常积极，但他的担忧是，它高度集中在人工智能相关需求上。所以他的问题是，我们何时期望或看到更多非人工智能应用采用CoWoS解决方案？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Well, yes, today is all AI-focused and we have very tight capacity and cannot even meet customers' need. But will the other product will adopt this kind of CoWoS approach? They will. It's coming, and we know that it's coming. So that's all I can say.
嗯，是的，今天都是以人工智能为重点，我们的产能非常紧张，甚至无法满足客户的需求。但其他产品会采用这种CoWoS方法吗？他们会的。它正在到来，我们知道它正在到来。这就是我能说的全部。
# Bruce Lu
卢楚仁
When?
什么时候？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
It's coming.
它正在到来。
# Bruce Lu
卢楚仁
Okay, I'll try next quarter.
好的，我会在下个季度再试试。
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
All right. And the CPO and the server chip, let me give you a hint.
好的。关于CPO和服务器芯片，让我给你一个提示。
# Bruce Lu
卢楚仁
Thank you.
谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. Thank you, Bruce. We'll go to the middle. Arthur Lai from Macquarie.
好的。谢谢Bruce。我们转到中间。来自麦格理的Arthur Lai。
# Arthur Lai
赖以仁
Hi C.C. and Wendell and Jeff. Arthur Lai from Macquarie. So first of all, congrats on the strong gross margin. Just have a very quick follow-up on the U.S. and JP expansion as this is important. My clients keep chasing me. So do you have operational strategy to mitigate the cost gap between the overseas fab and Taiwan fab? I think CC you hint, like, you work on it and improve the gross margin. But during the Chinese New Year I read Morris Chang's -- his autobiography and he mentioned that the strategy is copy exactly from the Taiwan mother fab. So I want to understand how we maintain the high yield and also drive the cost down. Thank you.
你好，C.C.、Wendell和Jeff。我是麦格理的Arthur Lai。首先，恭喜你们取得强劲的毛利率。我只想就美国和日本的扩张进行一个非常简短的跟进，因为这很重要。我的客户一直在追问我。所以你们有没有运营策略来缓解海外晶圆厂和台湾晶圆厂之间的成本差距？我想C.C.你暗示，比如，你们正在努力改善毛利率。但在春节期间，我读了张忠谋的自传，他提到策略是完全复制台湾母厂。所以我想了解我们如何保持高良率并降低成本。谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, so Arthur's question is about our overseas expansion. His question is related to the cost gap and what is our operational strategies to mitigate the cost gap. How are we doing this internally in our fab operations and strategies to do so?
好的，所以Arthur的问题是关于我们的海外扩张。他的问题与成本差距有关，以及我们缓解成本差距的运营策略是什么。我们在晶圆厂运营中如何内部处理这个问题，以及采取什么策略？
## Wendell Huang
黄仁昭
Well, you mentioned my boss' book. Okay, that's meaning that you really read it. What he says copy exactly is whatever Taiwan's improvement, the U.S. will copy over there. Doesn't mean that this year, next year and the following year will be the same. We continue to improve. That's improve the cost structure, both in Taiwan and in the U.S., and we also try very hard to find out a new methodology or whatever that I cannot share with you right now, but it will give Arizona fab some benefit. And so that will improve -- will minimize the gap between -- the cost structure between U.S. and Taiwan. And we are working on that. But no matter what I said, we will be the best fab over there. Okay?
好的，你提到了我老板的书。这意味着你真的读了它。他所说的完全复制是指无论台湾有什么改进，美国都会复制过去。这并不意味着今年、明年和后年都会一样。我们会继续改进。那就是改善成本结构，无论是在台湾还是在美国，我们也非常努力地寻找新的方法或其他我现在不能与你分享的东西，但这将给亚利桑那晶圆厂带来一些好处。所以这将改善——将最小化美国和台湾之间的成本结构差距。我们正在努力。但无论我说什么，我们都将成为那里最好的晶圆厂。好吗？
# Arthur Lai
赖以仁
Second follow-up question, probably is on Wendell. You just mentioned that there's a 200 bps or 300 bps margin dilution. Right. So can you give us a one level down, like, the variable cost and the fixed cost? Maybe [FM] (ph) or maybe which one is higher?
第二个跟进问题，可能是针对Wendell的。你刚才提到有200个基点或300个基点的毛利率稀释。对吧。所以你能否给我们更深入的了解，比如可变成本和固定成本？也许是[FM]（音）或者哪一个更高？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Arthur's second question is on the overseas dilution of 2% to 3%. He is asking if we can provide a further breakdown in terms of how much of that is composed from variable cost, how much of that is from the fixed cost, et cetera.
好的。所以Arthur的第二个问题是关于2%到3%的海外稀释。他询问我们是否可以提供进一步的细分，比如有多少来自可变成本，有多少来自固定成本等等。
## Wendell Huang
黄仁昭
Arthur, we really don't give -- break down these numbers, but both of them are higher. That's all I can share with you.
Arthur，我们真的不会——细分这些数字，但它们都更高。这就是我能与你分享的全部。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you. We'll move to the right side of the room. I think Rick Hsu from Daiwa Securities.
好的，谢谢。我们转到房间右侧。我想是大和证券的Rick Hsu。
# Rick Hsu
许立国
Yes. Hi. Happy New Year and thank you for taking my question. So first one is C.C., can you share with us your view on this year's global semiconductor revenue forecast as memory or any driver by applications in priority across the main application? Thank you.
是的。你好。新年快乐，谢谢你接受我的问题。第一个问题是，C.C.，你能否与我们分享你对今年全球半导体收入预测的看法，无论是内存还是按主要应用优先级划分的任何驱动因素？谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Rick's first question, he's asking for our forecast of the semiconductor industry, what we used to provide as semi ex mem, but of course, we have already given Foundry 2.0. Then he would like the outlook by end market application in terms of ranking. Maybe just a comment on the overall end markets as a whole.
好的。所以Rick的第一个问题，他询问我们对半导体行业的预测，我们过去提供的是不包括内存的半导体，但当然，我们已经给出了Foundry 2.0。然后他想要按终端市场应用排名的展望。也许只是对整体终端市场的评论。
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Rick, I think the memory business will grow this year also. But all I can say is that HBM will grow very fast. And I don't comment on other memories because of -- it's not logic.
Rick，我认为内存业务今年也会增长。但我能说的是，HBM将增长非常快。我不评论其他内存，因为——那不是逻辑。
## Wendell Huang
黄仁昭
And we have already provided Foundry 2.0 to grow 10% year-over-year. That's our industry forecast for 2025.
我们已经提供了Foundry 2.0的年增长率为10%。这是我们对2025年行业的预测。
# Rick Hsu
许立国
Just a quick follow-up. Can I use your Foundry 2.0 market growth as a proxy of the global semi ex mem?
只是一个快速的跟进问题。我可以使用你们的Foundry 2.0市场增长作为全球不包括内存的半导体的代理吗？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
So his question is can we use Foundry 2.0 as a proxy for semiconductor ex memory?
所以他的问题是我们可以使用Foundry 2.0作为不包括内存的半导体的代理吗？
# Rick Hsu
许立国
Yes, thank you. The second one is very quick about your CoWoS and SoIC capacity ramp. Can you give us more color here, because recently there seemed to be a lot of market noises, some add orders, some cut orders. So I would like to see your view on the CoWoS ramp.
是的，谢谢。第二个问题是关于你们的CoWoS和SoIC产能提升的简短问题。你能给我们提供更多信息吗？因为最近似乎有很多市场噪音，一些增加订单，一些削减订单。所以我想了解你对CoWoS提升的看法。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Rick's second question is lots of market rumors here. So he would like to know any comment we can provide on CoWoS ramp in 2025.
好的。所以Rick的第二个问题是这里有很多市场传言。所以他想知道我们能否对2025年CoWoS产能提升提供任何评论。
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Rick, as you said, there's a lot of rumor. That's a rumor, I assure you. We are working very hard to meet the requirement of my customers' demand. So cut the order, that won't happen. Actually continue to increase. So we are -- again, I will say that, we are working very hard to increase the capacity.
Rick，正如你所说，有很多传言。那只是传言，我向你保证。我们正在努力满足客户需求的要求。所以削减订单，那不会发生。实际上是持续增加。所以我们——再次，我要说，我们正在努力增加产能。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you. Okay, let's move back to operator. Is there anyone online?
好的，谢谢。让我们回到操作员。线上有人吗？
## Operator
操作员
Yes, we have next one, Robert Sanders, Deutsche Bank. Go ahead, please.
是的，下一位是德意志银行的Robert Sanders。请继续。
# Robert Sanders
罗伯特·桑德斯
Yes, hi there. I just had a question on AI demand. Is there a scenario where HBM is more of a constraint on the demand rather than CoWoS, which seems to be the bigger constraint at the moment? And I have a follow-up. Thanks.
是的，你好。我有一个关于人工智能需求的问题。是否存在这样一种情况，HBM比CoWoS更成为需求的约束因素，而CoWoS目前似乎是更大的约束因素？我还有一个后续问题。谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Rob is asking us to comment on AI demand and HBM status constraint or what is the bigger constraint in AI demand.
好的。所以Rob要求我们评论人工智能需求和HBM状态约束，或者在人工智能需求中什么是更大的约束因素。
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
I don't comment on other suppliers, but I know that we have a very tight capacity to support the AI demand. I don't want to say I'm the bottleneck. TSMC, always working very hard with customer to meet their requirement. That's all I can say.
我不评论其他供应商，但我知道我们有非常紧张的产能来支持人工智能需求。我不想说我是瓶颈。台积电一直与客户努力合作，满足他们的要求。这就是我能说的全部。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
You have a second question?
你有第二个问题吗？
# Robert Sanders
罗伯特·桑德斯
Yes. Just on SoIC, there's been more discussion in the market around your smartphone customers adopting SoIC. Can you just discuss if there's any kind of inflection point here, whether it's in the PC domain or the smartphone domain? Or is this still more of a data center story? Thanks.
是的。关于SoIC，市场上有更多关于你们的智能手机客户采用SoIC的讨论。你能否讨论一下这里是否有任何拐点，无论是在PC领域还是智能手机领域？或者这仍然更多是数据中心的故事？谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. Well, Rob's second question is on SoIC adoption. His question basically in a nutshell is when do we see an inflection point for smartphone application to adopt SoIC?
好的。Rob的第二个问题是关于SoIC的采用。他的问题简而言之是，我们何时看到智能手机应用采用SoIC的拐点？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Today, SoIC's demand still can focus on AI applications. For PC or for other area is coming, but not right now.
今天，SoIC的需求仍然可以专注于人工智能应用。对于PC或其他领域，它正在到来，但不是现在。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you, Rob. Thank you, C.C. I think in the interest of the time, we'll take the last two questions, please. Okay, I guess we'll go to Sunny Lin from UBS.
好的，谢谢Rob。谢谢C.C.。考虑到时间，我们将接受最后两个问题。好的，我想我们将转向UBS的Sunny Lin。
# Sunny Lin
林昕
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. And so, my first question is to try to get a bit more clarity on the cloud growth for 2025. I think longer term, without a doubt, the technology definitely has lots of potential for demand, but what is -- but I think if we look at 2025 and 2026, I think there could be increasing uncertainties coming from maybe CSP spending, macro or even some of the supply chain challenges. And so, I understand the management just provided a pretty good guidance for this year for the sales to double. And so, if you look at that number, do you think there's still more upside than downside as we go through 2025, or how should we think about the demand profile for this year and next year?
下午好。谢谢你们接受我的问题。我的第一个问题是试图更清楚地了解2025年云计算增长情况。我认为从长期来看，毫无疑问，这项技术肯定有很大的需求潜力，但是——但我认为如果我们看2025年和2026年，我认为可能会有来自CSP支出、宏观经济甚至一些供应链挑战的不确定性增加。所以，我理解管理层刚刚为今年提供了相当好的指导，销售额将翻一番。那么，如果你看这个数字，你认为当我们经历2025年时，上行空间是否仍然大于下行空间，或者我们应该如何看待今年和明年的需求情况？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. Well, Sunny's question is about the AI-related demand. We have said that even after tripling -- more than tripling last year, it will double again in 2025. She wants to know is there upside or downside to this. And also for us to provide an outlook on the 2026 AI growth.
好的。Sunny的问题是关于人工智能相关需求。我们已经说过，即使在去年增长三倍多之后，2025年还会再翻一番。她想知道这是否有上行或下行空间。并且希望我们提供2026年人工智能增长的展望。
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Sunny, I certainly hope there is an upside, but I hope I get -- my team can supply enough capacity to support it. Did that give you enough hint? Okay. And we also forecast -- based on the 2024's high number, we also forecast a mid-40s CAGR for the five years. That'll give you some kind of estimate that you can calculate.
Sunny，我当然希望有上行空间，但我希望我能——我的团队能提供足够的产能来支持它。这给了你足够的提示吗？好的。我们还预测——基于2024年的高数字，我们还预测五年内的年复合增长率为40多。这会给你一些可以计算的估计。
# Sunny Lin
林昕
Yes. Also mid-40% is the long-term expectation in terms of growth by next few years. But how should we think about the trajectory of the growth? For sure, this year is still pretty strong growth but do you think at some point maybe we see a moderation of growth temporarily, and then followed by another ramp?
是的。此外，40多%是未来几年增长的长期预期。但我们应该如何看待增长的轨迹？当然，今年仍然是相当强劲的增长，但你认为在某个时候我们可能会看到增长暂时放缓，然后跟着另一个提升吗？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Well, I think Sunny's question again is asking us to comment on 2026 outlook, which is a little bit early, or that how do we see the trajectory of the growth?
嗯，我认为Sunny的问题再次是要求我们评论2026年的展望，这有点早，或者我们如何看待增长的轨迹？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
I have already say, it's a little bit too early. All right.
我已经说过，现在有点太早了。好的。
# Sunny Lin
林昕
Sure, no problem. So I will follow up maybe next quarter as well. And so, my second question is on Edge AI. And so, last year management thinks by maybe 2025 to be the inflection point for it to see more content related to Edge AI. So based on your current visibility, are you seeing clients ramping for this year for the Edge AI products maybe into second half? And before you also mentioned Edge AI could potentially drive 5% to 10% die size increase. Will that be a one-time increase or do you think beyond the 5% to 10% increase for maybe first-gen product, there should be sustainable increase going forward.
当然，没问题。所以我可能下个季度也会跟进。我的第二个问题是关于边缘人工智能。去年，管理层认为2025年可能是拐点，可以看到更多与边缘人工智能相关的内容。根据你目前的可见性，你是否看到客户今年为边缘人工智能产品提升产量，可能在下半年？之前你还提到边缘人工智能可能会推动5%到10%的芯片尺寸增加。这会是一次性增加，还是你认为除了第一代产品可能增加5%到10%外，未来应该会有持续增长？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Sunny's second question is related to Edge AI. She would like some more detail or color, do we see customers ramping Edge or what we call on-device AI products in second half of this year? And the second part in terms of the content increase, 5% to 10% increase, is this a one-time thing? Is this an ongoing thing? How do we estimate the content benefit from on-device AI?
好的。所以Sunny的第二个问题与边缘人工智能有关。她想要更多细节或信息，我们是否看到客户在今年下半年提升边缘或我们称为设备上人工智能产品的产量？第二部分关于内容增加，5%到10%的增加，这是一次性的吗？这是持续的吗？我们如何估计设备上人工智能带来的内容收益？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Okay. On the Edge AI, our observation, we found out that our customers start to put more neural processors inside. And so we estimated the 5% to 10% more silicon being used. Can it be every year 5% to 10%? Definitely it's no. Right? So they will move to next node, the technology migration, that's also to TSMC's advantage. Not only that. I also say that the replacement cycle, I think it will be shortened because of -- when you have new toy that with AI functionality inside, everybody was replacing, replaced their smartphone, replaced their PCs. And I count that one much more than a mere 5% increase. All right? Did I answer your question?
好的。关于边缘人工智能，根据我们的观察，我们发现我们的客户开始在内部放置更多的神经处理器。所以我们估计使用了5%到10%更多的硅。每年都能有5%到10%吗？肯定不是。对吧？所以他们会转向下一个节点，技术迁移，这也是台积电的优势。不仅如此。我还说过替换周期，我认为它会缩短，因为——当你有新玩具，里面有人工智能功能，每个人都在更换，更换他们的智能手机，更换他们的电脑。我认为这比仅仅5%的增长要多得多。好吗？我回答了你的问题吗？
# Sunny Lin
林昕
Yes, thank you very much.
是的，非常感谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, Thank you. Operator, I think there's one more participant online. So we'll take the last question from online participant, please.
好的，谢谢。操作员，我想线上还有一位参与者。所以我们将接受线上参与者的最后一个问题，请。
## Operator
操作员
I think the last caller just dropped the line. Thank you.
我想最后一位来电者刚刚挂断了电话。谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, then we'll take the last question from Brad Lin from Bank of America.
好的，那我们将接受美国银行的Brad Lin的最后一个问题。
# Brad Lin
林博仁
Thank you for squeezing me in. So, Happy New Year, and taking my questions. I would like to answer two questions. First question would be on the CoWoS as well. So we have observed an increase in margin of advanced packaging. Could you remind us the CoWoS contribution of last year and do you expect the margin to kind of approach the corporate average or even exceed it after the so-called value reflection this year? That would be my first question. Thank you.
谢谢你们挤出时间让我提问。新年快乐，感谢接受我的问题。我想回答两个问题。第一个问题也是关于CoWoS的。我们观察到先进封装的利润率有所增加。你能否提醒我们去年CoWoS的贡献，以及在今年所谓的价值反映后，你是否预期利润率会接近公司平均水平甚至超过它？这是我的第一个问题。谢谢。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Brad's first question is very specific to CoWoS. Basically he wants to know what is the revenue contribution from CoWoS last year and what is the margin profile. Maybe we can talk about advanced packaging.
好的。所以Brad的第一个问题非常具体地针对CoWoS。基本上他想知道去年CoWoS的收入贡献是多少以及利润率情况如何。也许我们可以谈谈先进封装。
## Wendell Huang
黄仁昭
Hey, Brad, we don't break it down in different segments of the advanced packaging. But overall speaking, advanced packaging accounted for over 8% of revenue last year and it will account for over 10% this year. In terms of gross margins, it is better. It is better than before but still below the corporate average. Thank you.
嘿，Brad，我们不会将先进封装细分为不同的部分。但总体而言，先进封装去年占收入的8%以上，今年将占10%以上。在毛利率方面，情况更好。比以前好，但仍低于公司平均水平。谢谢。
# Brad Lin
林博仁
Thank you, Wendell, that's very helpful. And then my second question would be on the IDM. So we have seen IDMs increasingly rely on TSMC, and then do we still expect the IDM to support our long-term growth?
谢谢，Wendell，这非常有帮助。然后我的第二个问题是关于IDM。我们看到IDM越来越依赖台积电，那么我们是否仍然期望IDM支持我们的长期增长？
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay. So Brad's second question I think is on IDM and IDM outsourcing. He does note that we do see more IDM outsourcing business. So is this part of our long-term growth outlook CAGR?
好的。所以Brad的第二个问题我认为是关于IDM和IDM外包。他确实注意到我们看到更多的IDM外包业务。那么这是我们长期增长展望复合年增长率的一部分吗？
## C.C. Wei
魏哲家
Again, let me repeat again. They are our very good customers and we work together. I don't say they rely on TSMC. We are partners and I really hope that a long-term relationship will be there, for sure.
再次，让我重复一遍。他们是我们非常好的客户，我们一起合作。我不会说他们依赖台积电。我们是合作伙伴，我真的希望长期关系会存在，这是肯定的。
## Jeff Su
杰夫·苏
Okay, thank you C.C. Thank you, Brad. Thank you everyone. This concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now. And certainly both will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. So thank you everyone for joining us today online and in person. We'd like to wish everyone a Happy New Year and hope everyone continues to stay well, and hope you'll join us again next quarter. Goodbye and thank you. Have a good day.
好的，谢谢C.C.。谢谢Brad。谢谢大家。这结束了我们的问答环节。在我们结束今天的会议之前，请注意，会议的回放将在30分钟后可以访问。会议记录将在24小时后可用。当然，两者都将通过台积电的网站www.tsmc.com提供。所以感谢大家今天在线上和现场的参与。我们祝愿大家新年快乐，希望大家继续保持健康，并希望你们下个季度再次加入我们。再见，谢谢。祝你有美好的一天。
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