2025-01-21 Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 21, 2025 4:30 PM ET

Company Participants

Jeff Norris - Senior Vice President, Finance

Andrew Young - Chief Financial Officer

Richard Fairbank - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Conference Call Participants

Ryan Nash - Goldman Sachs

Terry Ma - Barclays

Rick Shane - J.P. Morgan

John Pancari - Evercore ISI

Mihir Bhatia - Bank of America

Bill Carcache - Wolfe Research Securities

Moshe Orenbuch - TD Cowen

Don Fandetti - Wells Fargo

Sanjay Sakhrani - KBW

John Hecht - Jefferies

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Capital One Q4 2024 Earnings Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]

操作员

大家好，谢谢您的耐心等待。欢迎参加Capital One 2024年第四季度收益电话会议。请注意，今天的会议正在录音。在发言者的陈述之后，将进行问答环节。[操作说明]

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Norris, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

我现在想把会议交给今天的演讲者，财务高级副总裁Jeff Norris。请继续。

Jeff Norris

Thanks, Josh, and welcome, everyone. And just as a reminder, as always, we are webcasting live over the Internet and to access the call on the Internet, please log on to Capital One's website, capitalone.com and follow the links from there. In addition to the press release and financials, we've included a presentation summarizing our fourth-quarter 2024 results.

杰夫·诺里斯

谢谢，Josh，欢迎大家。提醒一下，我们一如既往地通过互联网进行现场直播。要访问电话会议，请登录Capital One网站capitalone.com并按指示操作。除了新闻稿和财务数据，我们还提供了一份总结2024年第四季度业绩的演示文稿。

With me this evening are Mr. Richard Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Andrew Young, Capital One's Chief Financial Officer. Rich and Andrew are going to walk you through this presentation.

今晚与我一同参与会议的有Capital One的董事长兼首席执行官Richard Fairbank先生，以及首席财务官Andrew Young先生。Rich和Andrew将带领大家浏览这份演示文稿。

To access a copy of the presentation and press release, please go to Capital One's website, click on Investors and click on financials and then click on quarterly earnings release. Please note that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements.

要获取演示文稿和新闻稿的副本，请访问Capital One网站，点击“投资者”栏目，然后点击“财务数据”，最后点击“季度收益发布”。请注意，本次演示文稿可能包含前瞻性声明。

Information regarding Capital One's financial performance and any forward-looking statements contained in today's discussion and the materials speak only as of the particular date or dates indicated in the materials. Capital One does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of this information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

有关Capital One财务表现的信息及今天讨论中包含的任何前瞻性声明仅限于材料中指明的特定日期。Capital One无义务更新或修订这些信息，无论是由于新信息、未来事件还是其他原因。

Numerous factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements. And for more information on these factors, please see the section titled forward looking Information in the earnings release presentation and the Risk Factors section in our Annual and Quarterly reports that are accessible at Capital One's website filed with the SEC.

许多因素可能导致我们的实际结果与前瞻性声明中描述的结果有重大差异。有关这些因素的更多信息，请参阅收益发布演示文稿中的“前瞻性信息”部分，以及我们在Capital One网站和提交给SEC的年度和季度报告中的“风险因素”部分。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Young. Andrew?

现在，我会把电话转给杨先生。安德鲁？

Andrew Young

Thanks, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start on slide three of tonight's presentation. In the fourth quarter, Capital One earned $1.1 billion or $2.67 per diluted common share. For the full year, Capital One earned $4.8 billion or $11.59 per share. Included in the results for the fourth quarter were adjusting items related to discover integration costs and a legal reserve build.

安德鲁·杨

谢谢，Jeff，大家下午好。我将从今晚演示文稿的第三页开始。第四季度，Capital One的净利润为11亿美元，每股摊薄普通股收益为2.67美元。全年净利润为48亿美元，每股收益为11.59美元。第四季度的业绩中包括与Discover整合成本和法律储备增加相关的调整项目。

Net of these adjusting items, fourth-quarter earnings per share were $3.09. Full-year adjusted earnings per share were $13.96. We also had one notable item in the quarter, which was $100 million of accelerated philanthropy contributions.

扣除这些调整项目后，第四季度每股收益为3.09美元。全年调整后每股收益为13.96美元。本季度还包括一项显著项目，即1亿美元的慈善捐款加速支出。

Pre-provision earnings of $4.1 billion in the fourth quarter were down 13% from the third quarter, driven by higher non-interest expense. The linked quarter increase in non-interest expense was driven by increases in both operating expense and marketing spend. Revenue in the linked quarter increased 2%, driven by higher non-interest income.

第四季度税前准备金利润为41亿美元，较第三季度下降13%，主要原因是非利息费用的增加。非利息费用的环比增长是由于运营费用和营销支出的增加。同比分收入增长了2%，主要由非利息收入的增加推动。

Provision for credit losses was $2.6 billion in the quarter, up about $160 million relative to the prior quarter. The quarterly increase in provision was driven by higher net charge-offs, partially offset by a larger allowance release.

本季度的信用损失拨备为26亿美元，比上一季度增加约1.6亿美元。拨备的季度增加主要由于净冲销额的上升，部分被更大的拨备释放所抵消。

Turning to slide four, I will cover the allowance in greater detail. We released $245 million in allowance this quarter, and our allowance balance now stands at $16.3 billion. The decrease in this quarter's allowance was driven by releases in our Commercial Banking and Commercial segments. Our total portfolio coverage ratio decreased 20 basis points to 4.96%.

接下来请看第四页，我将更详细地介绍拨备。本季度我们释放了2.45亿美元的拨备，目前拨备余额为163亿美元。本季度拨备减少主要由商业银行和商业板块的拨备释放推动。我们的总投资组合覆盖率下降了20个基点至4.96%。

I'll cover the drivers of the changes in allowance and coverage ratio by segment on slide five. The allowance balance in our domestic card business was flat. The coverage ratio declined 33 basis points, primarily driven by seasonal balances as well as favorable near-term credit trends. In our Consumer Banking segment, we released $131 million in allowance, resulting in a 22 basis point decrease to the coverage ratio.

在第五页中，我将分板块说明拨备和覆盖率变化的驱动因素。我们的国内信用卡业务拨备余额持平，覆盖率下降了33个基点，主要由于季节性余额和近期信用趋势的改善。在消费者银行业务中，我们释放了1.31亿美元的拨备，使覆盖率下降了22个基点。

Vehicle values were stable in the quarter, resulting in an improvement -- improved recoveries outlook, which drove the release. And finally, our Commercial Banking allowance decreased by $130 million, resulting in a 15 basis point decrease to the coverage ratio. The release was primarily driven by the reduction in criticized loans and to a lesser extent by charge-offs in the quarter.

本季度车辆价值保持稳定，回收前景改善，这推动了拨备释放。最后，我们的商业银行拨备减少了1.3亿美元，覆盖率下降了15个基点。拨备释放主要是由于问题贷款减少，以及本季度的一些冲销。

Turning to page six, I'll now discuss liquidity. Total liquidity reserves in the quarter decreased by about $8 billion to approximately $124 billion. Our cash position ended the quarter at approximately $43 billion, down about $6 billion from the prior quarter. The decline in cash was largely driven by seasonally higher card loans and funding maturities, which were partially offset by continued strong growth in our Consumer Banking business deposits. Our preliminary average liquidity coverage ratio during the fourth quarter was 155%.

接下来请看第六页，我将讨论流动性。本季度总流动性储备减少约80亿美元至1240亿美元左右。季度末我们的现金头寸约为430亿美元，比上一季度减少约60亿美元。现金减少主要是由于季节性信用卡贷款的增加和到期融资，这部分被消费者银行业务存款的持续强劲增长所抵消。第四季度我们的初步平均流动性覆盖率为155%。

Turning to page seven, I'll cover our net interest margin. Our fourth quarter net interest margin was 7.03%, 8 basis points lower than last quarter and 30 basis points higher than the year-ago quarter. The linked quarter decrease in NIM was primarily driven by lower asset yields, which were only partially offset by lower deposit and wholesale funding costs.

接下来请看第七页，我将介绍我们的净息差。第四季度我们的净息差为7.03%，比上一季度下降8个基点，比去年同期提高30个基点。净息差的环比下降主要是由于资产收益率下降，仅部分被存款和批发融资成本的降低所抵消。

非常高的净息差。

Turning to slide eight, I will end by discussing our capital position. Our common equity Tier-1 capital ratio ended the quarter at 13.5%, 10 basis points lower than the prior quarter. Net income in the quarter was more than offset by the impact of loan growth, dividends and $150 million of share repurchases.

接下来请看第八页，我将以我们的资本状况作为总结。本季度末我们的普通股一级资本充足率为13.5%，比上一季度下降10个基点。本季度净收入被贷款增长、股息以及1.5亿美元的股票回购的影响所完全抵消。

As a reminder, the announcement of the acquisition of Discover constituted a material business change. Therefore, we continue to be subject to the Federal Reserve's pre-approval of our capital actions until the merger approval process has concluded.

提醒一下，宣布收购Discover构成了一项重大业务变更。因此，在合并批准程序完成之前，我们的资本行动仍需获得美联储的预先批准。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich. Rich?

以上内容后，我将把电话交给Rich。Rich？

Richard Fairbank

Thanks, Andrew, and good evening, everyone. Slide 10 shows fourth quarter results in our Credit Card business. Credit Card segment results are largely a function of our domestic card results and trends, which are shown on slide 11. In the fourth quarter, our Domestic Card business delivered another quarter of steady top-line growth, strong margins, and stable credit. Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 7%.

理查德·费尔班克

谢谢，Andrew，大家晚上好。第10页显示了我们信用卡业务的第四季度业绩。信用卡板块的业绩主要受国内信用卡结果和趋势的驱动，第11页对此进行了展示。在第四季度，我们的国内信用卡业务实现了又一个季度的稳定收入增长、强劲利润率和稳定信用。本季度购买量同比增长7%。

Ending loan balances increased $8 billion or about 5% year-over-year. Average loans increased about 6% and fourth-quarter revenue was up 9% from the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by the growth in purchase volume and loans.

期末贷款余额同比增加80亿美元，增幅约为5%。平均贷款增加了约6%，第四季度收入比2023年第四季度增长了9%，主要得益于购买量和贷款的增长。

Revenue margin for the quarter increased 55 basis points from the prior year quarter to 18.6%, largely driven by the impact of the end of the Walmart revenue sharing agreement. The charge-off rate for the quarter was 6.06%. The impact of the end of the Walmart loss-sharing agreement increased the fourth-quarter charge-off rate by roughly 40 basis points.

本季度收入利润率比去年同期增加了55个基点，达到18.6%，这主要受沃尔玛收入共享协议结束的影响。季度的冲销率为6.06%。沃尔玛损失分担协议结束对第四季度冲销率的影响约为40个基点。

Excluding this impact, the charge-off rate for the quarter would have been 5.66%, up 31 basis points year-over-year. And after 20 consecutive months of second derivative improvement, the 30-plus delinquency rate crossed into actual year-over-year improvement. The 30-plus delinquency rate at the end of December was 4.53%, down 8 basis points from the prior year. As a reminder, the end of the Walmart loss-sharing agreement did not have a meaningful impact on delinquency rate.

剔除这一影响，本季度的冲销率将为5.66%，同比上升31个基点。在连续20个月的二阶衍生改善后，30天以上拖欠率实现了实际的同比改善。截至12月底，30天以上拖欠率为4.53%，比去年下降8个基点。提醒一下，沃尔玛损失分担协议的结束对拖欠率没有实质性影响。

On a sequential-quarter basis, the charge-off rate was up 45 basis points. The 30-plus delinquency rate was flat compared to the linked quarter. Domestic Card non-interest expense was up 13% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Operating expense and marketing both increased year-over-year. Total company marketing expense in the quarter was $1.4 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Our choices in Domestic Card are the biggest driver of total company marketing. We continue to see compelling growth opportunities in our Domestic Card business.

按季度环比，冲销率上升了45个基点。30天以上拖欠率与环比季度持平。国内信用卡非利息费用较2023年第四季度增长了13%。运营费用和营销费用同比均有所增加。本季度公司的总营销费用为14亿美元，同比增长10%。我们在国内信用卡业务的选择是公司总营销的最大驱动力。我们继续在国内信用卡业务中看到引人注目的增长机会。

Our marketing continues to deliver strong new account growth across the Domestic Card business. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, Domestic Card marketing in the quarter included higher media spend and increased investment in premium benefits and differentiated customer experiences like our travel portal, airport lounges, and Capital One Shopping.

我们的营销继续推动国内信用卡业务的强劲新账户增长。与2023年第四季度相比，本季度国内信用卡营销包括更高的媒体支出，以及在高端福利和差异化客户体验（如旅行门户、机场贵宾室和Capital One购物）上的更多投资。

Slide 12 shows fourth-quarter results in our Consumer Banking business. Auto originations were up 53% from the prior-year quarter. A portion of this growth can be attributed to overall market growth, while the remainder is the result of our strong position to pursue resilient growth in the current marketplace.

第12页展示了我们消费者银行业务的第四季度业绩。汽车贷款发放量同比增长了53%。这部分增长可以部分归因于整体市场的增长，剩余部分则是我们在当前市场中追求稳健增长的强劲市场地位的结果。

非常大的增长。

As a reminder, our choices to tighten credit and pull back in anticipation of credit score inflation and declining vehicle values were still in effect in the fourth quarter of 2023, resulting in relatively low originations. These choices also drove strong and stable credit performance that positioned us to lean into current marketplace opportunities and return to originations growth in 2024.

提醒一下，我们在2023年第四季度仍然实施了收紧信贷和缩减业务的选择，以应对信用评分膨胀和车辆价值下降。这些选择也带来了强劲且稳定的信用表现，使我们能够抓住当前市场机遇，并在2024年恢复贷款发放增长。

With four consecutive quarters of origination growth in 2024, Consumer Banking loan balances returned to growth in the fourth quarter. Ending loans increased $2.7 billion or about 4% year-over-year and average loans were up 1%. On a linked-quarter basis, ending loans were up 2% and average loans were up 1%.

在2024年连续四个季度的贷款发放增长之后，消费者银行贷款余额在第四季度恢复了增长。期末贷款余额同比增加27亿美元，增幅约为4%，平均贷款增长了1%。环比季度，期末贷款增长了2%，平均贷款增长了1%。

Compared to the year-ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew about 7% and average consumer deposits were up about 8%. Consumer Banking revenue for the quarter was up about 1% year-over-year. Growth in loans and deposits was partially offset by a higher year-over-year average deposit interest rate.

与去年同期相比，期末消费者存款增长了约7%，平均消费者存款增长了约8%。本季度消费者银行收入同比增长约1%。贷款和存款的增长部分被更高的平均存款利率所抵消。

Non-interest expense was up about 10% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, driven largely by the unique fourth-quarter items Andrew discussed, as well as increased auto originations and continued technology investments.

非利息费用比2023年第四季度增长了约10%，主要受到Andrew提到的第四季度特殊项目的推动，以及汽车贷款发放量的增加和持续的技术投资。

The auto charge-off rate for the quarter was 2.32%, up 13 basis points year-over-year. The 30-plus delinquency rate was 5.95%, down 39 basis points year-over-year, largely as a result of our choice to tighten credit and pull back in 2022. Auto charge-offs have been strong and stable on a seasonally adjusted basis.

本季度汽车贷款的冲销率为2.32%，同比上升了13个基点。30天以上拖欠率为5.95%，同比下降了39个基点，这主要得益于我们在2022年收紧信贷和缩减业务的选择。在季节性调整的基础上，汽车贷款冲销率表现强劲且稳定。

Slide 13 shows fourth-quarter results for our Commercial Banking business. Compared to the linked quarter, ending loan balances were essentially flat. Average loans were down about 1%. Both ending and average deposits were up about 4% from the linked quarter.

第13页展示了我们商业银行业务的第四季度业绩。与环比季度相比，期末贷款余额基本持平，平均贷款下降了约1%。期末和平均存款均比环比季度增长了约4%。

Fourth-quarter revenue was up 7% from the linked quarter and non-interest expense was up by about 5%.

第四季度收入比环比季度增长了7%，非利息费用增长了约5%。

The Commercial Banking annualized net charge-off rate for the fourth quarter increased 4 basis points from the sequential quarter to 0.26%. The commercial criticized performing loan rate was 6.35%, down 131 basis points compared to the linked quarter. The criticized non-performing loan rate decreased 16 basis points to 1.39%.

商业银行第四季度的年化净冲销率比环比季度上升了4个基点，达到0.26%。商业问题表现贷款率为6.35%，比环比季度下降了131个基点。问题不良贷款率下降了16个基点至1.39%。

In closing, we continued to post strong and steady results in the fourth quarter. We delivered another quarter of top-line growth in Domestic Card loans, purchase volume and revenue. In the Auto business, we posted growth in originations for the fourth consecutive quarter and the return to year-over-year growth in loan balances and consumer credit trends remained stable.

最后总结一下，我们在第四季度继续取得了稳健的业绩。在国内信用卡贷款、购买量和收入方面实现了又一个季度的收入增长。在汽车业务中，我们连续第四个季度实现了贷款发放量的增长，并恢复了贷款余额的同比增长，同时消费者信用趋势保持稳定。

Our full-year operating efficiency ratio net of adjustments was 42.35%, consistent with our guidance of the low 42s, even after incurring $100 million in accelerated philanthropy contributions.

我们全年调整后的运营效率比为42.35%，与我们低42%的指引一致，即使在承担了1亿美元加速慈善捐款的情况下。

And turning to the Discover acquisition. The shareholder votes are scheduled for February 18th, and we continue to work closely with the Federal Reserve, the OCC and the Department of Justice as our applications continue to work their way through the regulatory approval process. We remain well-positioned to complete the acquisition early in 2025, subject to regulatory and shareholder approval.

接下来谈谈Discover的收购。股东投票定于2月18日举行，我们继续与美联储、货币监理署（OCC）和司法部密切合作，我们的申请正在监管审批流程中稳步推进。在获得监管和股东批准的前提下，我们仍然有望在2025年初完成此次收购。

Pulling way up, the acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity. It will create a consumer banking and global payments platform with unique capabilities, modern technology, powerful brands, and a franchise of more than 100 million customers. It delivers compelling financial results and offers the potential to enhance competition and create significant value for merchants and customers.

放眼全局，收购Discover是一个独特的机会。它将创建一个拥有独特能力、现代技术、强大品牌以及超过1亿客户的消费者银行和全球支付平台。这将带来引人注目的财务成果，并有望增强竞争，为商户和客户创造重大价值。

And now we'll be happy to answer your questions. Jeff?

现在我们很乐意回答您的问题。杰夫？

Jeff Norris

Thank you, Rich. We will now start the Q&A session. Remember, as a courtesy to other investors and analysts who may wish to ask a question, please limit yourself to one question plus a single follow-up. And if you have any follow-up questions after the Q&A session, the Investor Relations team will be available after the call. Josh, please start the Q&A.

杰夫·诺里斯

谢谢你，Rich。现在我们将开始问答环节。请记住，为了礼貌起见，让其他投资者和分析师也有机会提问，请限制每人提问一个问题及一个后续问题。如果在问答环节结束后还有其他问题，投资者关系团队将在电话会后为您解答。Josh，请开始问答环节。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.

主持人：

谢谢。[主持人提示操作说明] 我们的第一个问题来自高盛的 Ryan Nash，请提问。

Ryan Nash

Hey, good afternoon, everyone.

Ryan Nash：

大家下午好。

Richard Fairbank

Hey, Ryan.

Richard Fairbank：

你好，Ryan。

Andrew Young

Hey, Ryan.

Andrew Young：

你好，Ryan。

Ryan Nash

So Rich, delinquencies have been in line or better for nine straight months losses, and you talked about delinquencies now being down on a year-over-year basis and losses have sort of followed suit, but at a little bit of a slower pace. And you've outlined a lot of the reasons, deferred charge-offs, the press recoveries. But when you think about credit from here, just broadly, what are you seeing from the consumer and how are you thinking about loss performance as well as any other factors that could be impacting losses? And do you think we're on a downward trajectory from here? Thank you. And I have a follow-up.

Ryan Nash：

Rich，逾期率连续九个月保持稳定或改善，你提到逾期率同比下降，而损失也有所改善，但速度稍慢。你列举了一些原因，比如延迟核销和收回款项的压力。但如果从整体来看，你如何看待消费者行为？你对损失表现以及可能影响损失的其他因素有何看法？你认为未来的损失表现是否会继续下降？谢谢，我还有一个后续问题。

Richard Fairbank

All right. Thank you, Ryan. So let me start by just talking about the health of the consumer and then maybe I'll turn and talk about the credit performance at Capital One. So the US consumer continues to be a source of strength in the overall economy. The labor market remains strong and we saw signs of softening in the first-half of 2024, but in the second-half of the year, the unemployment rate has been stable and job creation data has shown renewed strength.

Richard Fairbank：

好的，谢谢你，Ryan。让我先谈谈消费者的状况，然后再说说 Capital One 的信用表现。美国消费者仍然是整体经济的一个强劲支柱。劳动力市场依然稳健，尽管我们在 2024 年上半年看到了一些疲软的迹象，但在下半年，失业率保持稳定，就业数据也展现了新的强劲势头。

Incomes are growing steadily in real terms as inflation settles out a bit. Consumer debt servicing burdens are stable near pre-pandemic levels. Consumers have higher bank account balances than before the pandemic.

收入以实际增速稳步增长，因为通胀有所缓和。消费者的债务偿还负担稳定在接近疫情前的水平。消费者的银行账户余额比疫情前更高。

Now, of course, the circumstances of individual consumers and households are highly variable and so talking in averages doesn't always fully cover what's going on. We do see some pockets, as I've been saying for some time now -- we do see some pockets of pressure related to the cumulative effects of inflation and elevated interest rates among consumers whose incomes have not kept up with inflation or who have high debt servicing burdens.

当然，个别消费者和家庭的情况差异很大，因此用平均值来描述并不能完全涵盖实际情况。正如我之前多次提到的，我们确实看到了一些压力点，这些压力与通胀的累积效应以及高利率相关，主要集中在收入未能跟上通胀或债务偿还负担较高的消费者中。

And of course, there's still some inflation pressure and longer-term interest rates strikingly have increased since the Fed started lowering rates in September. So we do see a bit of a disconnect between the average consumer and the folks closer to the margin.

当然，目前仍然存在一些通胀压力，而自美联储在9月开始降息以来，长期利率却显著上升。因此，我们确实看到平均消费者与处于边缘的群体之间存在一些脱节。

And you can see that, for example, in payment rates in our Card business. On the one hand, card payment rates remain on average meaningfully above pre-pandemic levels. And this is true overall and within each of our major customer segments.

这一点可以在我们的信用卡业务支付率中体现出来。一方面，信用卡支付率的平均水平仍显著高于疫情前水平。这一点在整体上以及我们每个主要客户群中都是如此。

On the other hand, the proportion of customers making just the minimum payment is also running somewhat above pre-pandemic levels, which is consistent with our card delinquencies running above pre-pandemic levels.

另一方面，仅支付最低还款额的客户比例也略高于疫情前水平，这与我们的信用卡逾期率高于疫情前水平相符。

Now, I should add that we're seeing this minimum payment effect across the credit spectrum. I'm not making a point here about the low end of the market or even about subprime. In fact, if anything, the lower end appears to be doing relatively better at the moment.

需要补充的是，我们在整个信用谱系中都观察到了最低还款效应。我并不是专指市场的低端部分，甚至不是次级信用部分。事实上，如果有什么不同的话，低端市场目前的表现相对更好。

So just pulling up, I believe we're almost certainly still seeing some pandemic-related effects like delayed charge-offs from the period of unprecedented stimulus and forbearance in 2020 and 2021 and 2022, this effect is impossible to isolate, but we can infer it from our own credit trends and industry credit trends over the past several years.

总的来看，我认为我们几乎可以肯定仍然看到了一些与疫情相关的影响，比如2020年、2021年和2022年间前所未有的刺激政策和宽容措施导致的延迟核销。这种影响无法被单独量化，但我们可以从自身信用趋势和行业信用趋势中推断出这一点。

But sort of pulling up on the consumer. I think consumers are in good shape compared to most historical benchmarks. There are -- as we've been saying for some time, there are pockets of pressure that have to work their way through before levels can get down -- credit loss levels can get down to sort of pre-pandemic levels. But I think the consumer story is very consistent with what I've been saying for a number of quarters and it is very solid.

但从整体消费者状况来看，我认为消费者相比大多数历史基准表现良好。正如我们多次提到的，仍然存在一些需要消化的压力点，这些压力需要解决后，信贷损失水平才可能下降到疫情前的水平。但我认为，消费者的表现与我过去几个季度的观点非常一致，总体非常稳健。

So let me turn to Capital One Credit. Over the course of 2024, our card delinquencies have moved in line with normal seasonality with losses following about a quarter behind.

接下来让我谈谈 Capital One 的信用表现。在2024年期间，我们的信用卡逾期率与正常季节性趋势一致，而损失的表现大约滞后一个季度。

Now as a reminder, earlier this year, we flagged that changes in the level and timing of tax refunds due to tax law changes were probably changing seasonal credit patterns in our Card business.

需要提醒的是，今年早些时候，我们指出，由于税法变更导致的退税金额和时间变化，可能正在改变我们信用卡业务的季节性信贷模式。

We derived new seasonality benchmarks for card delinquencies based on post-pandemic performance. And those benchmarks have less amplitude in both directions than in the past.

我们基于疫情后的表现，制定了新的信用卡逾期率季节性基准。这些基准在双向波动上的幅度比过去更小。

So we've now had a full year to look at what we were hypothesizing as the new seasonality benchmark and as we now look at the whole year, this experience is very confirmatory and we very much sort of believe that we've got the benchmark right.

我们已经用整整一年的时间来观察我们假设的新季节性基准，现在回顾这一年，这些经验非常有说服力，我们非常相信我们确立的基准是正确的。

And when we first saw delinquencies settling out, it is clear that for -- really for the whole year now, we've been calling stabilization. We've not been declaring a peak or declaring that credit would improve from here, but we can now look at the whole year and see a really nice stabilization.

当我们首次观察到逾期率趋于稳定时，实际上可以说，在整个一年里，我们都在谈论稳定性。我们并没有宣布逾期率达到峰值，也没有预测信贷状况会从这里改善，但现在回看这一整年，我们确实看到了非常好的稳定性。

In the fourth quarter, and again, you saw this in the monthly -- the month we just reported. We saw our delinquencies improve on a seasonally adjusted basis in the quarter for the first time since normalization began. And they ended the year slightly lower on a year-over-year basis. So that's certainly an encouraging sign.

在第四季度，正如您在我们刚刚报告的月度数据中看到的那样，我们观察到自正常化开始以来首次在季度内经过季节性调整的逾期率有所改善。它们在全年结束时同比略有下降。这无疑是一个令人鼓舞的迹象。

Looking ahead, we're not giving guidance on future credit, but over time, there are a number of forces that play out.

展望未来，我们不会对未来的信贷表现给出指引，但从长远来看，会有多种力量发挥作用。

Our recoveries inventory will continue to rebuild and that should be a gradual tailwind to our losses over time, all else equal.

我们的回收库存将继续重建，这在其他条件不变的情况下，应该会逐步对我们的损失产生有利影响。

Still, high interest rates will probably remain a source of pressure for some consumers, especially those with higher debt servicing burdens.

然而，高利率可能仍然是一些消费者，特别是那些债务偿还负担较重的消费者的压力来源。

And there still is, we believe, the phenomenon of delayed charge-offs and of course, this effect is hard to measure and certainly hard to forecast.

此外，我们认为仍然存在延迟核销的现象。当然，这种影响很难量化，也确实难以预测。

But over time, it should play through, but how long it plays out, that's just something that is just a matter of speculation.

但从长期来看，这种影响应该会逐渐消退，不过其持续时间只是一个猜测的问题。

I think we will eventually get back to the place where traditional labor market indicators are the main drivers of change in Consumer Credit.

我认为，我们最终会回到以传统劳动力市场指标作为消费者信贷变化主要驱动因素的阶段。

But that will still take some time. And finally, as we move into the new year, we'll keep an eye on the level and timing of tax refunds since we know these can materially affect seasonal movements in card credit.

但这仍然需要一些时间。最后，随着我们进入新的一年，我们将密切关注退税的金额和时间，因为我们知道这些会对信用卡信贷的季节性波动产生重要影响。

Ryan Nash

Got it. Thanks for the color. If I can throw in one high-level follow-up. So Rich, efficiency improvement has been a hallmark of Capital One for the last seven or eight years, ex a small period during COVID. You recently talked about investments you wanted to make in the network once the deal hopefully closes at some point in the first quarter?

Ryan Nash：

明白了，谢谢你的补充。如果可以，我想再问一个高层次的问题。Rich，效率提升一直是 Capital One 在过去七到八年间的标志性特征，除了疫情期间的短暂阶段。你最近提到，希望在交易（预计将在第一季度某个时间完成）结束后，对网络进行一些投资？

I guess the question is, do you expect to continue to be on an efficiency journey, fully recognizing that the cost saves obviously make it easier, but just curious how you're thinking about efficiency for the consolidated company over the medium term, fully recognizing that there's going to be a lot of noise in the results?

我的问题是，你是否预计会继续推进效率提升的进程？虽然成本节省显然会使事情更容易一些，但我想知道你对合并后公司中期效率的看法，尽管我们知道结果中可能会有许多波动因素？

Richard Fairbank

So we look forward to the completion of our deal and actually really getting inside the financials and the performance and all the details of the business. The businesses at this rather remarkable company Discover.

Richard Fairbank：

我们期待完成这笔交易，真正深入了解财务、业绩以及业务的所有细节，涉及这家非常出色的公司——Discover 的业务。

But as we've talked about, when we look still from the outside, we see just a great opportunity there. And of course, we have said there are three areas that are going to need in continued investment when we think about virtually anything that all the strategic upside of this Discover deal, it's sort of all roads lead through three areas, kind of obvious areas of continued investment.

正如我们之前所说，从外部来看，我们看到了一次绝佳的机会。当然，我们也提到过，在讨论 Discover 交易的战略潜力时，有三个领域需要持续投资，可以说所有的战略机会都通过这三个显而易见的投资领域实现。

And the first, of course, is compliance and risk management. And Discover has really been leaning into that and we, of course, are doing everything we can to prepare to continue to lean into that and we'll do whatever it takes on that front. Obviously, that's an investment.

首先当然是合规和风险管理。Discover 在这方面已经非常投入，而我们也正在尽一切努力准备继续在这一领域深耕，我们会不惜一切代价加强这方面的工作。这显然是一项投资。

The second is network acceptance. We've talked about how struck we are and how struck we were to find out and confirm just how good the acceptance is in the United States for Discover. You can see, in fact, they've been putting some ads on TV sort of touting that and it's a very good story.

第二是网络接受度。我们谈到过，我们对 Discover 在美国的接受度之高感到震撼，也已经确认了这一点。事实上，他们在电视上投放了一些广告来宣传这一点，这确实是一个非常不错的故事。

And internationally, they've been investing there and focusing on where their customers travel and they've made a lot of progress there. When we look at our customer base at Capital One and where we would love to be over time in terms of being in a position to add more-and-more volume onto the Discover network, we think an incredibly important objective is to increase the depth and breadth of acceptance internationally, sloping the work, of course, working backwards where -- from where our customers and Discovers travel.

在国际市场，他们也在不断投资，并专注于他们客户的旅行目的地，并取得了很多进展。对于 Capital One 的客户群体以及我们希望在未来实现的目标——将越来越多的交易量转移到 Discover 网络上，我们认为一个极其重要的目标是增加国际接受度的深度和广度，当然，这需要根据我们客户和 Discover 的旅行足迹来规划工作。

So that -- that's going to be a multiyear thing that -- that's a very important strategic imperative, I think, for us.

因此，我认为，这将是一个多年的工作，同时也是对我们来说一个非常重要的战略任务。

And then the third one will be building the network brand. We plan to keep the name Discover for the network. We think it's a great brand. And we're really happy with the underlying reality of where acceptance is.

第三个领域是打造网络品牌。我们计划保留 Discover 作为网络的名称。我们认为这是一个很棒的品牌，而且我们对其接受度的实际表现感到非常满意。

都像是空的逻辑。

We know there are challenges in terms of consumer perception relative to those realities and we know also we need to, in fact, build the international reality and then the brand perception that follows that.

我们知道消费者的认知与这些现实之间存在一些挑战，同时我们也意识到需要先提升国际市场的实际表现，随后再改善品牌认知度。

So those are the three strategic -- the kind of obvious and strategic investment areas that we've been identifying really since the start of the deal.

因此，这些就是我们自交易开始以来一直确定的三个显而易见的战略投资领域。

And back to your question about what do we think -- how do you think -- how do we think that fits in relative to efficiency ratio?

回到你的问题——我们如何看待这些内容与效率比率的关系？

We, of course, on the Capital One side have had a long -- decade-long journey of continuing to improve operating efficiency ratio and it's striking that improvement has come even as we have continued to really ramp up investment in technology.

当然，在 Capital One，我们已经经历了长达十年的持续提升运营效率比率的过程，值得注意的是，即使我们不断加大在技术方面的投资，这种改进仍然得以实现。

Now the way that paradox works is the technology is -- we're also investing more in technology and at the same time, getting all the benefits on the efficiency side, both in terms of growth and in terms of costs that come from such an investment in technology.

这一矛盾的解决方式在于，尽管我们在技术上的投资更多，但同时我们也通过这样的投资在效率方面获得了所有的收益，无论是增长方面还是成本方面。

So the engine that drives operating efficiency ratio strategically will continue at Capital One and it should continue it with the combined institution as well.

因此，推动运营效率比率的战略引擎将在 Capital One 继续运作，同时也应该在合并后的机构中继续发挥作用。

Now then you ask, will the big three investment areas that we talk about, what will that do to operating?

接着你问到，我们提到的这三个主要投资领域会对运营产生什么影响？

I think the -- we always at Capital One have strategic imperatives that we're investing in.

我认为，Capital One 一直有需要投资的战略任务。

I think the overall picture of how Capital One's tech journey helps pay -- one of the important ways investors get paid is through operating efficiency improvement.

我认为 Capital One 的技术发展历程能够带来的整体回报之一，是通过运营效率的提升为投资者创造价值。

I think that story to me stays strategically intact even as we have new investment areas because we'll also have new areas to capture synergy and growth opportunities and things that really wouldn't have been possible for either of our companies alone.

即使我们有了新的投资领域，我认为这个战略故事仍然完整，因为我们还会有新的领域来捕捉协同效应和增长机会，这些是任何一家公司单独都无法实现的。

So thanks for the question. Operating efficiency is a really important way that we create value for investors. And in the long run, we continue to really see increased opportunities there.

因此，谢谢你的提问。运营效率是我们为投资者创造价值的一种非常重要的方式。从长期来看，我们确实看到这里有不断增加的机会。

Jeff Norris

Next question, please.

Jeff Norris：

下一个问题，请。

Operator

Thank you.

主持人：

谢谢。

Ryan Nash

Thank you.

Ryan Nash：

谢谢。

Operator

Our next question comes from Terry Ma with Barclays. You may proceed.

主持人：

下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Terry Ma，请提问。

Terry Ma

Hi, thank you. Good evening. I wanted to follow-up on Credit first. It seems the trend that we've seen for the second derivative suggests there's room for that to continue to go lower. Is there some sort of framework to think about how much lower DQs can go -- can trend going forward? And is there anything in the near term that can cause the second derivative to inflect higher again? And I have a follow-up.

Terry Ma：

你好，谢谢，晚上好。我想首先跟进一下信用问题。从我们看到的趋势来看，二阶导数似乎表明逾期率（DQs）还有进一步下降的空间。是否有某种框架可以用来预测逾期率未来可能的最低水平？近期是否存在可能导致二阶导数再次上升的因素？我还有一个后续问题。

Richard Fairbank

So Terry, yes, so thank you for the question. Obviously, well, since the founding of the company, we've always had our microscopes out looking at delinquencies because they're the single best predictor of credit of all the metrics. There are many metrics we watch, but that certainly is at the top of the list.

Richard Fairbank：

Terry，谢谢你的问题。显然，自公司成立以来，我们一直密切关注逾期率，因为在所有指标中，它是信用表现的最佳预测指标。我们关注许多指标，但逾期率绝对是其中最重要的。

And it is, I think, a really important -- it's certainly a gratifying milestone to where finally the second derivative cross the horizontal axis effectively and we'd certainly note that milestone.

我认为，这是一个非常重要的里程碑——尤其令人满意的是，二阶导数最终有效地跨过了水平轴，我们当然要注意这一里程碑。

The first thing I would say about as we all get our microscopes out to look at trends on a monthly basis is to just talk about seasonality itself. And we don't publish a seasonality curve per se because there's no precise benchmark with which to do it, but we certainly like to guide our investors about how we think about that.

我想首先说的是，当我们每月分析趋势时，应该关注季节性因素。我们并未正式发布季节性曲线，因为没有可以作为基准的精确标准，但我们很乐意向投资者分享我们对此的看法。

Seasonality for Capital One has tended to have more amplitude up and down over the course of the year than most other card players. And one might ask, why is that?

Capital One 的季节性波动往往比大多数其他信用卡公司更为显著。有人可能会问，为什么会这样？

We believe that the biggest driver of seasonality, while there are several, the biggest driver of seasonality is tax refunds.

我们认为，虽然有多个因素影响季节性，但最大的驱动因素是退税。

And since we have a larger subprime book than most other players who really don't do subprime, those customers do tend to have higher seasonality in their credit performance than folks higher upmarket.

由于我们拥有比大多数其他公司更多的次级信贷账户，而其他公司几乎不涉及次级信贷，这些客户的信用表现季节性波动往往比更高端市场的客户更显著。

So I think that's why Capital One has a greater seasonality effect. And for these customers in particular, tax refunds certainly in terms of the monthly flow of cash can end up creating something very nice that comes seasonally and some of that makes its way into payments.

因此，我认为这就是为什么 Capital One 的季节性效应更显著的原因。对于这些客户来说，退税确实能在月度现金流方面带来积极影响，其中一部分会转化为还款。

Now the changes in the tax withholding rules a few years ago led to fewer tax refunds and lower average refund payments. And the IRS was also paying certain refunds later than before. So that created a lot of noise, as I've been saying on recent calls.

几年前税收预扣规则的变化导致退税数量减少，平均退税金额也降低。此外，美国国税局（IRS）支付某些退税的时间比以前更晚。因此，正如我在最近的电话中所说的，这造成了许多波动。

You'd think it would be easy to reestablish a seasonality curve, but while credit was normalizing so dramatically, it was sometimes swamping the seasonality effect.

你可能会认为重新建立季节性曲线很容易，但在信用表现迅速正常化的过程中，这种变化有时掩盖了季节性效应。

But we created sort of this detrended seasonal curve from 2023 to the best we could and that turned out to really be right on for 2024.

不过，我们在 2023 年尽可能地构建了一条去趋势的季节性曲线，结果发现它对 2024 年非常适用。

If I were to pull up and kind of summarize what we saw in 2024. 2024 settled out with fewer refunds paid than before the pandemic and about 25% lower total refund volume in real terms.

如果我要总结一下我们在 2024 年的观察。2024 年的退税数量比疫情前更少，总退税额实际下降了大约 25%。

Delinquencies moved with our new post-pandemic seasonality benchmarks, which have similar timing, but if I were to summarize what this new curve versus the one we've had for many years, it appears to have about 35% to 40% less amplitude in both directions than in the past.

逾期率遵循了我们新的疫情后季节性基准，其时序类似，但如果总结这条新曲线与我们多年来使用的曲线相比，其双向波动幅度似乎减少了 35% 到 40%。

By the way, just a note for a second on auto, all of this also happens in auto seasonality, but in an even faster and more concentrated way.

顺便提一下，汽车贷款的季节性也呈现类似的情况，但变化速度更快，集中度更高。

We tend to see auto delinquencies at their seasonal low in Q1 and losses in Q2. And this year that seasonal improvement was delayed a bit.

我们通常在第一季度看到汽车贷款逾期率的季节性低点，而损失则出现在第二季度。今年这种季节性改善略有延迟。

So that's the backdrop for now talking about the credit performance that we see.

这就是我们现在讨论信用表现时的背景。

If you start, Terry, with the sort of foundation that the consumer is in very good shape. The economy is in quite good shape overall, you know one would certainly feel there's sort of a gravitational pull toward even better credit in the business that is helped by the math associated with recoveries that our recoveries rate has been very constant, but the recovery inventory that we have had to collect on, it got very small in -- during the pandemic and that has been replenishing and so there's sort of a good guy gradually coming as recoveries fully restore.

Terry，如果以消费者状况非常良好作为基础来开始，整体经济表现也相当不错，你会感到在恢复率保持稳定的背景下，回收相关的数学效应正推动信用进一步改善。在疫情期间，我们的回收库存量非常小，而这一库存正在逐步恢复，因此随着回收完全恢复，这种积极的作用也在逐渐显现。

And then that really gets us to whatever effects there are of inflation, whatever effects there are on the consumers on the tails that are not in as good shape as sort of the averages that we all look at.

接下来，我们需要关注的是通胀的影响，以及对那些处于边缘的消费者的影响——这些消费者的状况不如我们观察的平均水平那么好。

And that's -- and what we see there is probably the way actually that the delayed charge-offs are actually playing out. They're probably playing out exactly through these consumers on the tail that are not -- they're still struggling at the margin.

我们所观察到的可能正是延迟核销实际发生的方式。这种效应可能正是通过那些仍在边缘挣扎的消费者显现出来的。

So the credit metrics are looking great. We have more solid benchmarks, Terry. The consumer is in a great place.

因此，信用指标表现非常良好。我们现在有了更可靠的基准，Terry，消费者的状况非常好。

But I think the sort of bigger picture phenomenon of delayed charge-offs that still has intuitively to play out and sort of these effects going on at the tail puts us in a position not to be declaring that things are headed down from here, but it's certainly positive indicators that we see at the margin.

但我认为延迟核销的宏观现象仍然需要直观地继续显现，这些在边缘的效应使我们无法宣布信用状况从此开始下降，但我们确实在边缘看到了积极的信号。

Terry Ma

Got it. That's helpful. Maybe just to talk about the auto business. You called out the loan book return to growth this quarter. Should we expect you to lean into that and see loan growth accelerate? And maybe can you just talk about the overall profitability of the loans you're booking today versus what you've seen historically? Thank you.

Terry Ma：

明白了，这很有帮助。也许我们可以谈谈汽车贷款业务。你提到本季度贷款组合恢复了增长。我们是否可以预期你们会继续扩大这一领域并看到贷款增长加速？另外，你能谈谈你们目前发放的贷款整体盈利能力与历史相比如何吗？谢谢。

Richard Fairbank

So we feel very good about the auto business. You know, the credit performance is really striking and in fact, let's just savor something that is I think an outlier relative to the industry.

Richard Fairbank：

我们对汽车贷款业务的表现感到非常满意。信用表现确实非常出色。实际上，让我们欣赏一下这在整个行业中算是一个例外的现象。

But our auto delinquencies have remained consistently below pre-pandemic levels and they've been lower on a year-over-year basis for the past two quarters.

我们的汽车贷款逾期率持续低于疫情前水平，并且在过去两个季度中同比下降。

And so the auto business is -- when you -- there are many similar things about our card business and the auto business, but if you were to compare the two, the degree with which we sort of intervened in the business and trimmed credit around the edges, it might have been even more dramatic than the term around the edges, what we did in the auto business over the last few years when we were worried about margin pressures in the business as prices were not being sort of past -- inflation pressures were not being passed through.

汽车贷款业务——与信用卡业务有许多相似之处，但如果你比较两者，我们在汽车业务中进行的干预和边缘化信贷的调整可能比信用卡业务更加显著。在过去几年里，当我们担心由于价格未能传递通胀压力而导致业务利润受压时，我们对汽车贷款业务进行了较大幅度的调整。

汽车贷款和汽车保险肯定存在相关性。

So there were margin pressures, there were declining vehicle values and there was inflation of credit scores.

因此，我们面临利润压力、车辆价值下降以及信用评分膨胀的问题。

So all of that led us to pull backend each of those have sort of -- have been resolving themselves.

所有这些因素导致我们在过去一段时间里收紧了贷款，但每个问题现在都在逐步得到解决。

You asked about margins, the margins are sort of much more sort of normal in the business right now.

你提到利润率，目前业务的利润率已经趋于更加正常化。

The grade inflation on credit scores is resolving itself as credit normalizes.

随着信用状况正常化，信用评分的膨胀问题也在自行缓解。

Vehicle values we'll have to continue to keep an eye on those.

车辆价值方面，我们需要继续密切关注。

But pulling way up on the shoulders of a lot of the changes that we have made and the technology that we have massively invested in this business in underwriting and in originations and in our auto navigator platform, all of those put us in a position to feel bullish about leaning into auto.

不过，基于我们在这一业务中进行的诸多变革以及我们在承保、贷款发放和 Auto Navigator 平台上的大量技术投资，所有这些都让我们对汽车贷款业务的前景感到乐观。

And I think we -- all the trends that we see on margins, credit and competition, we feel good about and that lines up to a story of leaning in on the auto business.

我认为，我们在利润率、信用和竞争方面看到的所有趋势都令人满意，这也表明我们将继续专注于汽车贷款业务。

Jeff Norris

Next question, please.

Jeff Norris：

下一个问题，请。

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rick Shane with J.P. Morgan. You may proceed.

主持人：

谢谢。下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Rick Shane，请提问。

Rick Shane

Thanks for taking my question. Hey, Rich, you did a great job laying out the factors that have caused the historical relationship between labor and credit to weaken. And one of the factors you mentioned was the impact of rates.

Rick Shane：

感谢回答我的问题。Rich，你刚才很好地阐述了导致劳动力与信贷之间历史关系弱化的因素，其中一个你提到的因素是利率的影响。

And that makes sense credit cards are one of the two largest classes of floating rate consumer debt. As we think about reversion to historical norms, should we expect charge-off rates to be structurally higher as long as interest rates are structurally higher or is it possible to get back to historic loss rates in a high interest rate environment?

这很有道理，因为信用卡是两大浮动利率消费债务类别之一。当我们考虑回归历史正常水平时，是否应该预期，只要利率结构性提高，核销率也会结构性提高？还是有可能在高利率环境下回到历史损失率水平？

Richard Fairbank

It's a great question. It's interesting how all of us -- some of us were around doing similar things back when in -- well, Capital One, we hadn't even come up with the idea for Capital One back when inflation was really raging the last time around.

Richard Fairbank：

这是个很好的问题。有意思的是，我们中的一些人当年也在做类似的事情——当然，那时 Capital One 这个想法还没有诞生，而上一次通胀严重时的情况和现在有所不同。

So I think we would be speculating there. But I think, Rick, if we pull up and think about interest rates and their impact, we think about how higher rates as a thing affect consumer credit.

所以这更多是猜测。但我认为，Rick，如果我们从更高的角度考虑利率及其影响，可以探讨更高利率如何影响消费信贷。

So debt servicing burdens for consumers, of course, can get affected the higher rates as they work their way through consumer products gradually, but not immediately sort of make their way into higher debt burdens.

显然，消费者的债务偿还负担会受到更高利率的影响，但这种影响会通过消费产品逐渐显现，而不是立即导致更高的债务负担。

So you have mortgages that tend to have fixed rates, auto loans have fixed rates. So you have time delays before interest rates make their way to more pressure on consumers, but still that effect obviously can continue.

例如，抵押贷款和汽车贷款通常是固定利率，因此利率变化对消费者的压力需要时间延迟才能显现，但这一影响显然会持续存在。

Most credit cards have variable APRs. So rising interest rates have tended to lead to somewhat higher minimum payments for consumers overall.

大多数信用卡的年利率是浮动的。因此，利率上升往往会导致消费者的最低还款额略有增加。

But if we pull up, I think that if wages -- if things stabilize and wages tend to keep up with inflation, I would think on the Credit Card side, there's -- it is plausible that charge-off rates could be very consistent with what they've been in a lower ambient rate environment.

但从更高层面来看，如果经济稳定并且工资增长跟上通胀，我认为在信用卡领域，核销率可能与低利率环境下的水平非常接近。

I think it gets very challenging when they're suddenly in motion up, but if they stabilize, I'm just speculating here at a moderate level that's higher than they were for the last couple of decades.

如果利率突然大幅上升，这将非常具有挑战性。但如果利率稳定下来，我猜测核销率可能会维持在一个比过去几十年略高的适中水平。

I think as wages sort of stabilize to make real incomes move the way they should, I would think that credit numbers could be very consistent with historical patterns.

我认为，随着工资的稳定，实际收入朝着应有的方向发展，信贷数据可能会与历史模式非常一致。

I think the biggest driver of why they're not right now, if I were to speculate, probably number one on my list is really the just unprecedented number of years of which charge-offs with all the government stimulus and the forbearance that so many consumers got a lifeline that those for whom that lifeline was a little more temporary in its benefit, some of those issues are still resolving themselves in terms of current charge-offs.

我认为目前信贷数据尚未完全符合历史模式的最大驱动因素，若让我猜测，排在首位的可能是政府刺激措施和宽容政策持续了前所未有的多年，给了许多消费者一条生命线。对于那些从这条生命线中获得的好处较为短暂的消费者来说，其中一些问题仍在通过当前的核销解决。

It's always an interesting thing to just take a look at the area under the curve in credit losses for -- if we look back over the last number of years and look at where credit losses would typically have been versus where they were and you look at the area under the curve and ask yourself, well, what if all of that were delayed charge-offs?

回顾过去几年，观察信贷损失曲线下面积，总是很有趣的。如果你看一下信贷损失通常会在哪里与实际情况的差异，并分析曲线下面积，你会问自己：如果这一切都是延迟核销会怎样？

You still have a majority of that area under the curve that would still have to play out in terms of delayed charge-offs.

实际上，曲线下面积的绝大部分仍需要通过延迟核销来体现。

Now we don't believe that anything close to all of the area under the curve would need to come on the other side.

当然，我们并不认为曲线下面积的全部都需要在未来完全体现出来。

But I think if you know a one-sentence sound bite to me of why in such a benign environment, credit losses in businesses like credit cards are running higher than pre-pandemic. It is the delayed charge-off effect.

但如果用一句话来解释为什么在这样一个良性环境下，信用卡等业务的信贷损失仍高于疫情前水平，我的答案就是延迟核销效应。

And time should be our friend there that should resolve itself overtime.

时间应该是我们的朋友，这一问题将随着时间的推移自行解决。

And there are a lot of positive factors behind that are putting sort of good gravitational pull in the right direction in this industry.

此外，有许多积极因素正在推动该行业朝着正确的方向发展。

Richard Shane

Thank you very much, Rich.

Richard Shane：

非常感谢你，Rich。

Jeff Norris

Next question, please.

Jeff Norris：

下一个问题，请。

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore ISI. You may proceed.

主持人：

谢谢。下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari，请提问。

John Pancari

Good evening. Just on the efficiency side, just a follow-up to Ryan's line of questioning. I know you've guided to an operating efficiency ratio in the low 42% range for 2024. Does this 42% range remain the case as you look at 2025 or do you see a change to the upside or the downside off of this level? Thanks.

John Pancari：

晚上好。我想跟进一下 Ryan 提到的效率问题。据我所知，你们对 2024 年的运营效率比率指引是大约 42% 的低位水平。展望 2025 年，这一 42% 的范围是否仍然适用，还是说可能会向上或向下发生变化？谢谢。

Richard Fairbank

So, we I think the operating efficiency ratio has really been -- hopefully our investors share our excitement that this 700 basis point improvement that has happened since we began our tech transformation in 2013 has certainly been a very good guy.

Richard Fairbank：

我认为运营效率比率确实是——希望我们的投资者能和我们一样感到兴奋，自我们在 2013 年开始技术转型以来，效率比率已经提升了 700 个基点，这无疑是一个非常积极的成果。

There are multiple things behind that, but the biggest driver is the technology transformation.

这一成就背后有许多因素，但最大的驱动力是技术转型。

And even as we invest a lot, there are also ways to create savings, savings through reduced vendor costs, the really high cost of a lot of legacy technology, the benefits on the cloud and really the ability to then on the other side of the technology transform -- transformation sort of rebuild the company and how it operates on a foundation of modern technology.

即使我们进行了大量投资，也有一些节省成本的方法，比如降低供应商成本、减少旧技术的高昂成本、利用云计算的优势，以及通过技术转型在现代技术的基础上重建公司及其运营方式。

And so that's a journey that continues and so we see benefits there.

因此，这是一段持续的旅程，我们在其中看到了收益。

I do want to say though also, you have -- we've had a lot of beneficial increase in the ratio in the last couple of years. And I wouldn't want people to just draw -- take the curve and say, wow, that thing almost looks like it's accelerating down.

不过，我想说的是，在过去几年里，我们的效率比率确实得到了显著提升。但我不希望大家仅仅沿用这条曲线然后说：“哇，这看起来几乎在加速下降。”

And you know, we don't give guidance in the short term. There are a lot of things that very important investments we're making in the business.

我们并不会对短期情况提供指引，因为我们在业务上正在进行许多重要投资。

But what I like to do is really just point out that when we stand back over a longer time frame and look at the journey of Capital One, this has been a journey for which the efficiency was never the objective function.

但我想强调的是，当我们站在更长时间维度上回顾 Capital One 的发展历程时，可以看到效率从来不是我们的目标函数，而是技术转型带来的众多好处之一。

It was one of the many benefits of a tech transformation, but it's very gratifying to see that continue.

它是技术转型的众多益处之一，但看到这一成果持续下去确实令人欣慰。

But I think the extrapolation from any one year to the next is not something that we would recommend.

不过，我认为从某一年直接推测到下一年并不是我们会建议的做法。

And so -- but it's a great long-term story.

总的来说，这是一个非常好的长期发展故事。

John Pancari

Got it. Okay. Thanks, Rich. And then one -- a quick second one. I assume this will be a pretty quick answer, but would be helpful if there's any -- have you changed -- made any changes to your expected deal metrics tied to the Discover deal, either the 15% or greater of EPS accretion in [‘27] (ph) or the expense efficiencies or the timing of adding the $175 billion in purchase volume to the network? Thanks.

John Pancari：

明白了。好的，谢谢，Rich。然后还有一个简短的后续问题，我想这会是一个很快的回答，但如果能提供帮助就太好了——你们是否对 Discover 交易相关的预期交易指标做出了任何更改？比如 2027 年 EPS 提升 15% 或更多、费用效率，或者将 1750 亿美元购买量纳入网络的时间表？谢谢。

Richard Fairbank

Hey, John. Yes, what I'll say is it's two independent public companies. We still are operating separately at this point, and there are a number of variables that have moved and will continue to move between now and legal day one.

Richard Fairbank：

你好，John。是的，我想说的是，这是两家独立的上市公司。目前我们仍然是独立运营的，在现在到法定第一天之间，有许多变量已经发生变化并将继续变化。

And so I'm not going to specifically comment on how any one of those variables or metrics are changing since the deal model.

因此，我不会具体评论自交易模型以来这些变量或指标的任何变化。

What I will say is we considered a wide range of outcomes across each of the line items and we continue to be comfortable with the estimates that we included in the deal model.

我要说的是，我们在每一项指标上都考虑了广泛的可能结果，并且我们对交易模型中包含的估计仍然感到满意。

We feel very good both strategically and financially about the deal today as we did nearly a year ago when we announced it.

无论是从战略上还是财务上，我们对这笔交易的看法都和我们在近一年前宣布交易时一样感到非常满意。

And so as we get to legal day one and put the marks on the balance sheet, we'll provide updates on the relevant metrics at that point.

因此，当我们到达法定第一天并将标记放入资产负债表时，我们会在那时更新相关指标。

Jeff Norris

Next question, please.

Jeff Norris：

下一个问题，请。

Operator

Our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America. You may proceed.

主持人：

下一个问题来自美国银行的 Mihir Bhatia，请提问。

Mihir Bhatia

Good afternoon and thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to start first by just talking about NIM a little bit. You called out the Walmart impact this quarter. Any other call-outs for the quarter?

Mihir Bhatia：

下午好，谢谢你回答我的问题。我想先谈一下净息差（NIM）。你提到本季度受到了沃尔玛的影响，还有其他需要说明的因素吗？

It just feels banks have been quite disciplined about lowering saving accounts interest rates as the Fed has reduced rates.

感觉各家银行在美联储降息的背景下，对下调储蓄账户利率一直相当谨慎。

Do you think that continues or are you starting to see some demand for deposits or deposit competition ramping as we start contemplating loan growth here into 2025?

你认为这种情况会继续下去，还是随着我们展望 2025 年的贷款增长，已经开始看到对存款的需求或存款竞争的加剧？

I guess just related to that, if you could just talk about some of the puts and takes on NIM in 2025 that'd be great? Thank you.

如果可以的话，能否谈谈 2025 年对净息差可能产生影响的因素？谢谢。

Andrew Young

Sure, Mihir. Well, let me start with just reminding everyone that the one thing for sure we know is that in the first quarter, we have two fewer days. And so that will drive a 15 basis point roughly decrease in NIM.

Andrew Young：

好的，Mihir。让我先提醒大家一个确定的事实——第一季度会少两天。这将导致净息差大约下降 15 个基点。

But if I kind of pull up and think beyond day count and look at a longer term -- the longer term, a lot of the same forces that I've been describing for the last number of quarters as potential headwinds and tailwinds still exist today.

但如果放眼更长远的时间框架，许多我过去几个季度提到的潜在逆风和顺风因素今天依然存在。

So if you think about the headwinds, first of all, we're very modestly asset-sensitive. And so you'd see a small decrease in NIM if rates continue to decrease and you saw a little bit of that effect here in this quarter.

如果谈到逆风，首先，我们对资产非常敏感。因此，如果利率继续下降，你会看到净息差有小幅下降，本季度已经看到了一些这样的影响。

And the other one, you bring up deposit beta, of course, in our rate risk modeling, we make assumptions around deposit betas. So to the extent that betas are lower or slower on the way down, we would be a little bit more asset-sensitive in that scenario.

另一个是你提到的存款 Beta。我们在利率风险建模中会对存款 Beta 做出假设。如果 Beta 降低或下降速度变慢，在这种情况下，我们对资产的敏感性会稍微高一些。

So those could be headwinds. But on the tailwind side, the steepening yield curve relative to forwards would be a good guy if that persists.

这些可能是逆风因素。但从顺风角度来看，如果收益率曲线相对于远期预测变得更陡，这将是一个积极的因素。

But then probably the single biggest factor and we've seen this play out over the last number of quarters is the card growth and card becoming a bigger percentage of our balance sheet, all else equal is a pretty meaningful tailwind to NIM.

然而，可能最大的一个因素是信用卡业务的增长。在过去几个季度中，我们已经看到这一趋势，信用卡业务在我们的资产负债表中的占比越来越大，在其他条件不变的情况下，这是净息差的一个非常重要的顺风因素。

So those are really the forces at play that I would highlight for you.

这些就是我想为你们强调的主要影响因素。

Mihir Bhatia

Got it. Thank you. And then maybe just turning quickly to capital return. You've been doing $150 million in buybacks last few quarters. Your CET1 is up to 13.5%.

Mihir Bhatia：

明白了，谢谢。接下来我想快速问一下资本回报的问题。过去几个季度，你们进行了 1.5 亿的股票回购。你们的核心一级资本充足率（CET1）已经达到 13.5%。

We understand with the deal, you have to get approval right for any capital actions. But the question is -- two-part question there is, A, is that approval keeping you a little conservative right now?

我们知道在这笔交易的背景下，你们的任何资本行动都需要获得批准。我的问题分为两部分：第一，这种批准是否让你们目前采取了相对保守的策略？

And two, once the deal is approved, should we assume you'd be pretty aggressive in getting that down or would it probably fair to assume it stays elevated for a little bit even post deal as you get through the integration?

第二，一旦交易获得批准，我们是否可以假设你们会积极降低 CET1 水平？还是说即使交易完成后，考虑到整合阶段，CET1 仍可能会保持在较高水平？

Andrew Young

Yes. I'll wrap my answer to both of those questions into one for you, Mihir. First of all, just go without saying, but I will say it too, which is we clearly recognize that over the longer term capital return is a key component of shareholder value creation.

Andrew Young：

好的，Mihir。我将把这两个问题的答案合并为一个回答。首先，虽然不言而喻，但我还是要强调的是，从长期来看，资本回报是创造股东价值的关键组成部分。

And you've seen in prior periods, we've executed substantial share repurchases. But in the near term, our pending deal is certainly influencing our approach to capital in a few ways.

正如你们在之前的阶段所看到的，我们已经进行了大量的股票回购。但从短期来看，我们未完成的交易确实在多个方面影响了我们的资本策略。

As you said, we're still under regulatory pre-approval rules for each of our capital actions.

正如你所说，我们的每一项资本行动目前都需要遵守监管机构的事先批准规则。

And then second, we will need to run our own bottoms-up analysis as a combined company to just assess our view of the combined capital need and we continue to be two separate companies and therefore, don't have the ability to do that analysis until after close.

其次，作为合并后的公司，我们需要从底层进行自己的分析，以评估合并后对资本需求的看法。目前我们仍是两家独立的公司，因此在交易完成之前无法进行这样的分析。

And then third, we will need the Fed's approval to go back to operating under the SEB framework.

第三，我们需要获得美联储的批准，才能重新按照压力资本缓冲（SEB）框架开展运营。

So if I pull up from there, and put all of those together, I think it's likely we're going to stay at a slower repurchase pace until we resolve these factors, but after that, we'll have more flexibility.

综上所述，把所有这些因素考虑在内，我认为我们很可能会维持较慢的回购速度，直到这些问题得到解决。但在此之后，我们将拥有更多的灵活性。

Jeff Norris

Next question, please.

Jeff Norris：

下一个问题，请。

Operator

Our next question comes from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research Securities. You may proceed.

主持人：

下一个问题来自 Wolfe Research Securities 的 Bill Carcache，请提问。

Bill Carcache

Thank you. Good evening, Rich and Andrew. It was good to hear all the references to the Capital One Arena around the inauguration.

Bill Carcache：

谢谢，晚上好，Rich 和 Andrew。在就职典礼期间听到关于 Capital One Arena 的所有提及真的很好。

I wanted to ask about your ability to better compete against the big banks in debit, assuming the Discover transaction closes as you expect?

我想问一下，如果 Discover 交易按预期完成，你们在借记卡领域与大型银行更好竞争的能力如何？

We know debit rewards for Visa, Mastercard issuers essentially went away after the force reduction in interchange under Dodd-Frank, but would reintroducing debit rewards be something that you'd consider given the greater flexibility that owning the Discover Network will afford you?

我们知道，在多德-弗兰克法案下中介费被强制降低后，Visa 和 Mastercard 发行方基本取消了借记卡奖励。但是，考虑到拥有 Discover 网络带来的更大灵活性，重新引入借记卡奖励是否是你们会考虑的方向？

Richard Fairbank

Hey, Bill. So obviously, a really key part of the deal is our excitement about getting the network and being able to add such a key dimension in vertically integrating our business.

Richard Fairbank：

你好，Bill。这笔交易的一个关键部分显然是我们对获得网络的兴奋之情，以及能够在纵向整合业务中增加这一重要维度的可能性。

And we talk so much about credit cards all the time, the debit business is a really important one. And on little cat feet, Capital One has really been investing in our national banking business.

我们经常谈论信用卡业务，但借记卡业务同样非常重要。Capital One 一直悄悄地投资于我们的全国性银行业务。

So -- and by the way, having our own network will be valuable there and we'll be able to enjoy the vertically integrated economics of owning a network and the scale that comes of course from pulling Discover and a bunch of Capital One's volume together.

顺便说一下，拥有我们自己的网络在这一领域将是非常有价值的。我们可以享受到拥有网络的纵向整合经济效益，以及将 Discover 和大量 Capital One 交易量结合在一起所带来的规模效应。

Now, I just want to pull back and just talk a little bit about Capital One's Consumer Banking strategy, and therefore and debit is of course, right in the transaction business right at the heart of that.

现在，我想稍微回顾一下 Capital One 的消费银行战略，而借记卡业务当然是交易业务的核心。

If you pull way up and think about consumer banking way back to when banks began, you had banks with branches on every corner.

如果你回顾银行业的历史，可以看到当初银行在每个街角都设有分行。

And then in the last 15 or 20 years, there have been the evolution of direct banks and they have been savings only, offering higher rates and they have no physical distribution whatsoever.

过去 15 到 20 年中，直销银行的兴起发生了变化。它们只提供储蓄服务，利率更高，但没有任何实体分支机构。

And we, of course, also through our acquisitions, have acquired several banks with branches on every corner. And we also acquired the nation's largest direct bank, and I announced at the time of that acquisition, this is a great financial trade, but it is also a strategic game-changer for Capital One. That was back like 12 years ago.

当然，通过我们的收购，我们也获得了一些拥有大量实体分行的银行。同时，我们还收购了全国最大的直销银行。当时我宣布，这是一个伟大的金融交易，同时也是 Capital One 的战略变革点。这是大约 12 年前的事情。

So since then, we have been very steadily, systematically, relentlessly and patiently if I could put so many adjectives on -- adverbs on that, pursuing a business model that actually doesn't really exist right now because we have those two endpoints.

自那时起，我们一直非常稳定、有系统地、坚定且耐心地追求一种目前实际上不存在的商业模式，因为我们拥有这两个端点。

But what we're really trying to do is build, in a sense the Bank of the Future.

但我们真正想做的是在某种意义上构建“未来的银行”。

And we believe that Bank of the Future is not just a direct bank, it's also not a bank with a branch on every corner, it is a bank with thin physical distribution.

我们认为，未来的银行不仅仅是直销银行，也不是在每个街角都有分行的银行，而是一个拥有精简实体分布的银行。

For us, we've got branches, but then also in major metropolitan areas, we have put in cafes that are really basically less about coffee, but really more about being sort of a hybrid of a branch and a showroom for Capital One and a place people can go and understand Capital One is there to help them and get a sense for really what this company is about and how it may be able to help them live their life more effectively.

对我们来说，我们有分行，但在主要的大都市地区，我们还设立了咖啡馆，这些地方不仅仅是关于咖啡，而是作为 Capital One 的分行与展厅的混合体，是一个人们可以了解 Capital One 的地方，让他们明白我们如何帮助他们更有效地生活。

So as we've been -- so this strategy has been about, if we work backwards from what we believe is the bank of the future. From a distribution point of view, that's thin physical distribution and highlighted by these Cafe showrooms it also -- a very central part of that is digital capabilities that enable something that's a very, very difficult thing to do, which is to take just about everything that can be done in a branch and make it available digitally.

我们一直以来的战略是从我们认为的未来银行模型出发，从分销的角度来看，这是一种精简的实体分销模式，其亮点是这些咖啡厅展厅。同时，非常核心的一部分是数字化能力，这种能力可以实现一个非常难做到的目标，那就是将几乎所有可以在分行完成的事情都通过数字化手段提供给客户。

Now there are some things like safe deposit boxes we haven't figured out how to create a digital safe deposit box for your valuables. And there are a few things that just you can't get there on a digital basis.

当然，有些事情比如保险箱，我们还没有找到一种数字化存放贵重物品的解决方案。有些事情是无法通过数字化实现的。

But as we've looked at this, we said just pretty much virtually all the activities that people go to branches for, we want to be able to deliver to them through our thin physical distribution plus massive full-service digital capability. And that's what we've been building over these years.

但是，当我们审视这一点时，我们发现几乎所有人们去分行办理的业务，我们都希望通过我们的精简实体分销模式加上全面的数字化服务能力来为客户提供。这就是我们这些年来一直在构建的东西。

Additionally, it requires -- in order to generate business, we need great products and we've been the only major bank out there with no fees, no minimums, and even a recent move of no overdraft fees, and those better deals come from having built the -- in a sense superior economics that come from this sort of physical distribution light model.

此外，要实现业务增长，我们需要出色的产品。我们是唯一一家没有收费、没有最低余额要求、甚至最近取消透支费的大型银行。这些更好的服务条款来源于我们建立的这种轻实体分销模式所带来的优越经济效益。

Now then you asked the question, so what will be our debit card strategy? We haven't completed the deal. We haven't fully gone in on the other side of exactly seeing, how things are working on the Discover side.

现在，你问我们的借记卡战略会是什么？目前交易尚未完成，我们还没有全面了解 Discover 的运营情况。

But we are very pleased with the results that we're having with our current strategy, including our current debit card strategy. And we are investing heavily to continue to grow that business.

但是，我们对当前战略的成果，包括借记卡战略的成果感到非常满意。我们正在大力投资以继续发展这一业务。

You look at the significant increase in marketing over the years. One of the drivers of this is that Capital One is building a National bank organically and without a lot of physical distribution and to get there, it takes a lot of marketing.

你会发现这些年来营销投入大幅增加。这背后的一个推动因素是 Capital One 正在有机地建设一家全国性银行，而这一过程中并没有依赖大量实体分支机构，这需要大量的营销投入。

So I think the best way to think about it is Discover gives a shot in the arm and a boost to a strategy we've been pursuing for more than a decade and the best way to think about it, I think is picture just more of the same from Capital One with a little bit of an accelerator.

因此，我认为，最好的理解方式是，Discover 为我们追求了十多年的战略注入了一剂强心针并带来助力。最好的解读是，将其看作 Capital One 现有战略的延续，只不过增加了一些加速器的作用。

Bill Carcache

I appreciate all the details, Rich. Thank you.

Bill Carcache：

感谢你的详细解答，Rich，谢谢。

Jeff Norris

Next question, please.

Jeff Norris：

下一个问题，请。

Operator

Our next question comes from Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen. You may proceed.

主持人：

下一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Moshe Orenbuch，请提问。

Moshe Orenbuch

Great. Thanks. Rich, you talked about better growth in Auto and Card, you talked about the high-end cards. Talk about the non-prime businesses in both card and auto, given the improved credit, how you're thinking about growth in those businesses in the coming quarters?

Moshe Orenbuch：

很好，谢谢。Rich，你提到了汽车贷款和信用卡业务的更好增长，以及高端信用卡业务。能否谈谈在信用状况改善的背景下，你如何看待未来几个季度信用卡和汽车贷款非优质客户业务的增长？

Richard Fairbank

Moshe, the word that I would use at the lower -- and the sort of lower end of the business, obviously, there are parts of the market below where we play. But if we sort of loosely call it at the lower end of the non-prime or subprime part of the marketplace, the word that I would use to describe it is stability and stability of -- let's look at the key aspects of that.

Richard Fairbank：

Moshe，对于业务的低端或非优质部分市场，我会用“稳定”这个词来形容。当然，有些市场领域是在我们的覆盖范围之下，但如果宽泛地称其为非优质或次级市场的低端部分，我会用“稳定”来描述其关键方面的表现。

On the consumer credit side, actually, the first part of our business to normalize really to settle out with respect to credit was the lower end of the market. That's been very stable.

在消费信贷方面，实际上，我们的业务中第一个随着信用正常化而稳定下来的部分是市场的低端，这部分表现一直非常稳定。

The -- our originations in that segment and really pretty much across our business, the originations are coming in on top of each other for years. So that has a stability there as well.

我们在该细分市场以及几乎整个业务范围内的贷款发放量多年来都保持平稳，因此这部分也具有一定的稳定性。

Competitively, it's a very competitive part -- it's a very competitive part of the business that has many in addition to regular card players, many non-traditional players as well. So the competitive intensity is high, but we watch it very carefully.

从竞争的角度来看，这是一个竞争非常激烈的业务领域，除了传统的信用卡参与者，还有许多非传统的参与者。因此竞争强度很高，但我们对此保持密切关注。

And so with the stability of performance and the strength of the consumer, we in both the card and the auto side of the business continue to lean in a very similar way that we have -- well, for card, it's just been very consistent for years.

鉴于业绩的稳定性和消费者的实力，我们在信用卡和汽车贷款业务中都以类似的方式继续深耕。信用卡方面，多年来我们始终保持高度一致的策略。

With auto, we kind of pulled back quite a bit in that part of the business and we're leaning in as we often have done historically.

在汽车贷款方面，我们曾在这部分业务中大幅收缩，而现在我们正像以往那样重新投入其中。

So we're leaning into both of them and we're really pleased with the stability and strength of the metrics that underlie those businesses.

因此，我们在这两项业务中都积极投入，并对这些业务背后指标的稳定性和强劲表现感到非常满意。

Moshe Orenbuch

Got it. Thanks. And maybe just as a follow up, when you think about reserve levels, given that you are seeing or likely to see some improvement in credit losses kind of on a core basis or like-for-like. And it sounds like the growth is probably -- a growth that you have on the balance sheet is probably going to come in your lower loss categories, not the higher ones, thoughts about the reserve level as we move forward?

Moshe Orenbuch：

明白了，谢谢。作为后续问题，当你考虑准备金水平时，鉴于你们在核心或类似基础上看到或可能看到信贷损失的某些改善，而且听起来你们资产负债表上的增长可能更多来自于低损失类别，而非高损失类别。对于未来准备金水平，你有什么看法？

Andrew Young

Sure, Moshe. So what's going to happen in future quarters starts with what happened this quarter. So I just want to reiterate a couple of the drivers of this quarter as a jumping-off point.

Andrew Young：

好的，Moshe。未来几个季度的情况要从本季度发生的事情开始讲起。所以我想重申本季度的一些主要驱动因素作为切入点。

As I said in the prepared remarks, your coverage was down 33 basis points by two things. The bigger effect being that we typically have seasonally higher balance -- balances in the fourth quarter that require very low levels of coverage and that denominator effect from those balances put downward pressure on coverage.

正如我在准备好的发言中提到的，覆盖率下降了 33 个基点，主要是由于两个原因。更大的影响是，我们通常在第四季度会有季节性较高的余额，这些余额需要非常低的覆盖水平，而这些余额产生的分母效应对覆盖率产生了下行压力。

The other effect was that the allowance we needed for what I'll call non-seasonal growth was offset by favorable observed credit performance.

另一个影响是，我们对所谓非季节性增长所需的准备金被良好的信用表现所抵消。

And so we added $0 of allowance balance to the numerator, but the non-seasonal growth impacted the denominator.

因此，我们在分子中增加的准备金余额为 0，但非季节性增长影响了分母。

And so in the first quarter, I just wanted to provide that backdrop to say the seasonal balances will run off and so there will be a corresponding upward pressure on coverage, all else equal from that effect.

在第一季度，我想提供这个背景来说明季节性余额会减少，因此这一效应将对覆盖率产生相应的上行压力，其他条件不变。

But beyond that, it's really going to come down to growth and our loss forecast and loss forecast specifically for the coverage.

但除此之外，这主要取决于增长情况以及我们针对覆盖率的损失预测。

And to the extent that loss forecast improves, changes in coverage could be modest in the near term as we just reflect the uncertainty of our projections and the allowance.

如果损失预测有所改善，覆盖率的变化在短期内可能会比较温和，因为我们需要反映出预测和准备金的不确定性。

But eventually, the improved loss forecast is going to flow through the allowance and continue to bring the coverage ratio down as uncertainties become more certain.

但最终，改善的损失预测会通过准备金反映出来，随着不确定性逐步明确，覆盖率将继续下降。

And so while the direction of travel would be down, the pace and timing is going to depend on a variety of factors, one of which will include the mix of businesses, as you say.

因此，虽然覆盖率的趋势是下降的，但下降的速度和时机将取决于多个因素，其中之一是你提到的业务组合。

But when it's denominated to the whole portfolio, the relative growth of different forecasted loss portions of the book aren't going to have material impact to coverage just given that the new originations as a percentage of the overall book in any given quarter is relatively small.

但就整个投资组合而言，不同损失预测部分的相对增长对覆盖率的影响不会很大，因为任何季度的新贷款发放量占整体投资组合的比例相对较小。

And then the only thing I also want to remind you of is, I know our investors look at history as a potential guide for levels of coverage.

最后，我还想提醒你，我们的投资者会将历史作为覆盖率水平的潜在参考。

And I just want to remind you that we called out the roughly 50 basis points of impact to coverage from the termination of the loss-sharing agreement with Walmart.

我想提醒你的是，我们提到，与沃尔玛的损失分担协议终止对覆盖率大约产生了 50 个基点的影响。

So that created a step function change in coverage relative to our prior history as well.

因此，这也导致了覆盖率相对于我们以往历史的跃变式变化。

Jeff Norris

Next question, please.

Jeff Norris：

下一个问题，请。

Operator

Our next question comes from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.

主持人：

下一个问题来自富国银行的 Don Fandetti，请提问。

Don Fandetti

Yes, Rich, your Credit Card purchase volume growth on a like account basis has picked up. I'm just trying to get a sense if this is a Q4 blip or are you thinking that the consumer is actually more confident here after the election? And are you seeing that same improvement in consumer and small business as well?

Don Fandetti：

是的，Rich，你们的信用卡消费额在同类账户基础上的增长有所加快。我想了解一下这是否是第四季度的短暂现象，还是你认为消费者在选举后变得更有信心？你是否也在消费者和小企业方面看到同样的改善？

Richard Fairbank

Well, we have -- if we think about our purchase volume, our growth in overall purchase volume continues to be driven by growth in our branded card customer base and the branded card includes both our consumer and our small business.

Richard Fairbank：

好的，如果我们考虑我们的消费额，总体消费额的增长仍然由我们品牌卡客户群的增长驱动，品牌卡包括我们的消费者和小企业客户。

The growth that you see and that we've seen for several years now is certainly a thing powering. It has been a strength in originations and some strength in originations at the higher end of the market.

你看到的增长，以及我们过去几年观察到的增长，无疑是令人振奋的。这主要得益于发卡量的增长，尤其是在高端市场的发卡量增长表现突出。

But the other way to think about your question is at a customer level, what you know, on a per customer basis, what's been happening to spend growth.

但从另一个角度来看你的问题，就是从客户层面，具体到每个客户的消费增长表现如何。

And even as our spend metrics were growing over overall, the spend growth per customer in our consumer business have been largely -- they had been largely flat through 2023 and really the first-half of 2024.

尽管我们的总体消费指标在增长，但消费者业务中每位客户的消费增长在 2023 年及 2024 年上半年基本保持平稳。

And then they started to pick up midway through last year and they grew further in Q4.

然后，这一指标在去年年中开始回升，并在第四季度进一步增长。

And I don't have in front of me the small business card numbers. They're embedded in the numbers that I gave you.

我手头没有小企业信用卡的具体数据，但这些数据包含在我之前提供的整体数据中。

So the fact that we have seen spend per customer finally pick up here is striking, whether it will continue and exactly what's driving it is hard to say, but I did want to point out that positive trajectory as the year finished off.

因此，我们看到每位客户的消费终于有所回升，这是非常显著的。至于这种趋势是否会持续以及具体驱动因素是什么，目前还很难说。但我确实想指出，随着年度结束，这一正面趋势令人关注。

Don Fandetti

Got it. And Andrew, you touched on this, but your '24 vintage, can you talk a little bit about how you're feeling -- how you're seeing that shape up in terms of credit performance? I've seen some industry data that shows delinquencies are still pretty high for '24?

Don Fandetti：

明白了。Andrew，你刚刚提到了一点关于 2024 年的发卡批次（vintage），能否谈谈你们对信用表现的看法？我看到一些行业数据显示 2024 年的逾期率仍然相对较高。

Andrew Young

Yes, Don, why don't I take that. So recent originations in our card business, we continue to see stability in the performance of our originations. It's really striking here. We've been calling this out consistently over the past few years.

Andrew Young：

好的，Don，我来回答这个问题。在我们的信用卡业务中，最近的发卡批次表现持续稳定，这一点非常显著。过去几年，我们一直在强调这一点。

Vintage over vintage, we're seeing mostly stable risk levels over time. And also striking is our overall front book of new origination vintages continues to perform in line with pre-pandemic vintages.

各发卡批次之间的风险水平随着时间的推移大体保持稳定。而且令人瞩目的是，我们最近发卡批次的总体表现与疫情前的批次表现保持一致。

Now when you compare with pre-pandemic vintages, you can't look at 2019 because 2019 very quickly got sort of corrupted by the pandemic. So we're looking at 2017 and 2018 when we make these comparisons.

不过，与疫情前的批次比较时，我们不会看 2019 年的数据，因为 2019 年很快受到了疫情的影响。因此，我们将 2017 年和 2018 年作为比较基准。

But from a Capital One point of view, I think this is this stability in origination performance and quarter-over-quarter and the consistency with pre-pandemic is the result of our intervention to deal with inflated credit scores and the high level of industry supplies that were flooding, particularly the subprime marketplace back there.

从 Capital One 的角度来看，我认为发卡表现的稳定性以及季度间的一致性，尤其是与疫情前的一致性，是我们针对信用评分膨胀以及高水平行业供应（特别是在次级市场）所采取干预措施的结果。

So we trimmed around the edges and continued to very closely watch the origination vintages. And that has led to a sustained stability on the part of Capital One and some of our most recent vintages.

因此，我们在边缘领域做出了调整，并继续密切关注各发卡批次。这使得 Capital One 的整体表现以及部分最新批次的表现保持了持续的稳定性。

Now again, we're still looking -- you've got to look like, six months in the rearview mirror to see much, but we continue to see some very positive results there.

当然，我们仍然需要回溯大约六个月的时间才能看清更全面的情况，但我们确实继续看到一些非常积极的结果。

We also have looked at industry data that shows some gapping out in vintages over the last couple of years. So I think the industry effect is not probably consistent with what we have described.

我们还查看了一些行业数据，这些数据显示过去几年中的各发卡批次表现存在一些差距。因此，我认为行业整体的情况可能与我们描述的并不完全一致。

And if I were to explain why because I think they're very capable companies doing this. I think the -- I'm not sure that most of the industry adjusted for inflated credit scores.

如果要解释原因，我认为很多公司在这个领域确实很有能力。但我不确定大多数行业是否针对信用评分膨胀进行了调整。

And we intervened on our models with a belief that the university was suddenly giving out As that should be Bs basically and so we intervened and then kept validating along the way.

我们在模型中进行了干预，因为我们认为就像某些大学突然把本应是 B 的成绩判为 A，因此我们采取了干预，并在此过程中不断验证。

But for a while, we didn't have validation. We just intervened because we believed it was the right thing to do.

不过，有一段时间我们没有足够的数据验证，但我们仍然干预，因为我们相信这样做是正确的。

So I think what we had -- what has been seen if you look at just overall industry originations is, as you say, some gapping out and I think that would be the biggest driver.

因此，如果你仅观察整体行业的发卡情况，正如你所说，存在一些差距，我认为这是主要的原因。

Jeff Norris

Next question, please.

Jeff Norris：

下一个问题，请。

Operator

Our next question comes from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW. You may proceed.

主持人：

下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani，请提问。

Sanjay Sakhrani

Thank you. I guess, Rich, just one more on the deal. Given the timeline that you've outlined earlier this year, is it fair to assume like everything is going pretty smoothly in terms of the regulatory approval process and there hasn't been any surprises?

Sanjay Sakhrani：

谢谢。Rich，我再问一个关于交易的问题。根据你今年早些时候提出的时间表，是否可以假设监管审批流程进展顺利，且没有出现任何意外？

I'm also wondering sort of where you guys are in terms of the integration efforts and how much work has been done there?

另外，我也想了解一下你们在整合工作方面的进展如何，目前已经完成了多少工作？

Richard Fairbank

Okay. Yes, so no, the approval process continues to move forward. We've made substantial process in the recent months.

Richard Fairbank：

好的，是的，审批流程仍在继续推进。最近几个月我们取得了实质性的进展。

We remain actively engaged with the Fed and the OCC about our merger applications and it is the Fed and the OCC who ultimately decide on our merger application.

我们与美联储和货币监理署（OCC）就合并申请保持积极沟通，最终由美联储和 OCC 对我们的合并申请作出决定。

Late last year, we received approval from the Delaware State Bank Commissioner, which we needed because Discover is a State Chartered Bank.

去年年底，我们获得了特拉华州银行专员的批准，因为 Discover 是一家州立特许银行，这一批准是我们需要的。

We of course, had the big public hearing in July and that went very well, we feel.

当然，我们在 7 月举行了大型公开听证会，进展非常顺利，这是我们的感受。

Earlier this month, of course, we finalized a joint proxy statement with the SEC setting up the February 18 shareholder vote. So that was good progress finally there.

本月早些时候，我们与美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最终确定了一份联合代理声明，为 2 月 18 日的股东投票奠定了基础。这是一个很好的进展。

We are also engaged with the Justice Department as they play a key role in advising the Fed and the OCC on the competitive aspects of the deal.

我们还与司法部保持沟通，因为他们在向美联储和 OCC 提供有关交易竞争性方面的建议中起着关键作用。

And we continue to believe that this transaction is both pro-competitive and pro-consumer, bringing our best-in-class products and services to a broader set of consumers and small businesses, and really enhancing opportunities and benefits for merchants as well.

我们始终相信，这笔交易既有利于竞争，也有利于消费者，可以将我们一流的产品和服务带给更广泛的消费者和小企业，并为商户创造更多的机会和利益。

So pulling way up, it's certainly the deal process is a long labor, but we remain well-positioned to get approval of the deal early this year.

总的来说，这笔交易的审批过程确实耗时漫长，但我们仍然处于良好的位置，预计今年年初能够获得批准。

And we are really proud of the work everyone is doing here and we look forward to getting this over the goal line.

我们为每个人在这项工作中所做的努力感到非常自豪，并期待最终完成这笔交易。

Sanjay Sakhrani

Okay. Just to follow-up on a question Ryan asked some time ago on sort of when you put the companies together and the efficiencies, and sort of the investments that need to be made.

Sanjay Sakhrani：

好的，关于之前 Ryan 提到的问题，我想再跟进一下，就是当你们将两家公司合并时，关于效率和需要进行的投资。

I guess when you put the two companies together, the efficiency ratio actually goes down and obviously, there's a lot of synergies both on revenues and expenses. Do you think those are sufficient enough to sort of accomplish?

我猜测，当两家公司合并时，效率比率实际上会下降，显然在收入和支出方面会产生很多协同效应。你认为这些是否足够实现目标？

I'm just trying the question again. Do you think those are sufficient enough to make all of the investments that you sort of outlined? Or do you think that there's others that you might have to make as you peel the onion a little bit when you have the company?

我再问一次，你认为这些是否足够支持你们已经概述的所有投资？还是说在整合公司时，你们可能还需要进行其他投资？

Richard Fairbank

So, I don't think we're in a position to -- and it's not just because we want to be coy about it. We -- we're not in a different place than we were at the time we announced the deal.

Richard Fairbank：

我认为我们目前并不处于能够完全回答这个问题的位置——这并不是因为我们想回避它。我们现在的位置与宣布交易时并没有什么不同。

And we should point out that we are working really hard preparing for integration, but we are still separate companies and Discover is working incredibly hard and working on their compliance and I know they're doing preparations for integration as well and we certainly are.

需要指出的是，我们正在为整合做出非常努力的准备，但我们仍然是独立的公司。Discover 正在为合规方面付出巨大的努力，我知道他们也在为整合做准备，而我们当然也是。

We're not getting an inside view of their numbers, their performance, their business model.

我们无法获得关于他们数据、业绩以及商业模式的内部视角。

So we're mostly sort of where we were at the outset. But if we pull up to your point, so Discover operated -- operates with a significantly lower efficient -- operating efficiency ratio than Capital One.

因此，我们基本上仍处于起初的位置。不过，回到你的问题，Discover 的运营效率比率显著低于 Capital One。

That's certainly a good thing for the combined company. I think it is also the case that the -- I think Discover has had a heritage of probably less investment in certain areas than Capital One.

这对于合并后的公司来说显然是件好事。我认为，Discover 在某些领域的投资可能比 Capital One 更少，这也是其历史原因。

And in a few cases, they're sort of making up for lost time there.

在某些情况下，他们正在弥补这些领域的不足。

But I think having not seen on the other side, we assume that there are some areas that we will -- and we've assumed this from the beginning, we're going to need to step-up the investments and obviously on the risk management side, there's a lot of investment to be done.

但我认为，在我们没有看到全部细节的情况下，我们假设有一些领域需要我们进行更多投资——我们从一开始就假设这一点。显然，在风险管理方面需要进行大量投资。

Whether it is how -- what ultimately needs to be done compares with what they're investing and all of that remains to be seen.

至于最终需要完成的工作与他们当前的投资水平相比如何，这还有待观察。

We obviously had assumptions in our deal model about leaning in on that. But what we get is -- so there's going to be a lot of effects that are all pretty significant that just go in different directions.

我们显然在交易模型中对此做出了假设。但我们得到的结果是，会有许多相当显著的影响，且这些影响朝着不同的方向发展。

A company with an amazing efficiency ratio, a company that's probably underinvested in a number of areas that's relative to Capital One and we would shore up some of those investments.

一家拥有卓越效率比率的公司，同时可能在某些领域相对于 Capital One 投资不足，而我们会加强这些领域的投资。

We also get a lot of synergy that comes from bringing overlapping businesses together. That's a very a strong effect.

我们还可以通过整合重叠的业务产生大量协同效应。这是一个非常显著的作用。

BRK在2024 Q2/Q3减持了30%的股票，目前还有价值18亿美元的股票。

And then these three -- the investment areas, the three that we're pointing out, we are talking about investing in those at a level that's a lot different than what Discover has done traditionally.

接下来这三个投资领域，我们正在讨论以不同于 Discover 传统方式的更高水平进行投资。

Obviously, the risk management one, we've all talked about that and they're leaning in hard now.

显然，风险管理领域是我们都提到过的，现在他们也在大力推进。

On international acceptance, they certainly -- again I'm amazed with their not that great scale, what they've done, but we would expect to invest at a higher level than they have there and in terms of the network brand relative to -- I wanted to make a comment about the network brand and some of this other investment.

在国际接受度方面，尽管他们的规模不是很大，但他们的成就令人印象深刻。然而，我们预计会在这方面进行比他们更高水平的投资。此外，关于网络品牌及其他投资，我也想做一些评论。

It is -- we have sloped -- we have taken our card business and sloped the business that we think most naturally and easily can go to the Discover network and it involves folks that aren't big international travelers, for example.

我们对我们的信用卡业务进行了划分，并选择了那些我们认为最自然且最容易迁移到 Discover 网络的业务，比如不太频繁出国旅行的客户群体。

So we've sloped the work. There is -- we think it's very straightforward to move this business front book and back book business to Discover.

因此，我们对工作进行了分层划分。我们认为将这些前端业务和存量业务迁移到 Discover 是非常直接的。

And some of these investments that I'm talking about leaning into are particularly important for the longer-term opportunity of being able to move more business than what we put into our deal model.

我提到的一些需要重点投资的领域对于长期机会尤为重要，因为它们将帮助我们迁移比交易模型中规划的更多业务。

And again, in doing that, we would -- we sloped -- we took our whole customer base and imagine sort of sloping it in terms of what part of the business fits most naturally within the context of the capabilities and the brand of Discover's network.

再次强调，为了实现这一点，我们对整个客户基础进行了划分，并设想哪些业务最适合 Discover 网络的能力和品牌定位。

And then as we want to move more we're going to need the bar to be raised relative to acceptance in brand and that's why I think you know these other investments were talking about will be multi-year they'll be overtime and there'll be things that help the deal payoff even more so in the longer term.

如果我们想迁移更多业务，就需要在接受度和品牌方面提高标准。这也是为什么我认为这些投资将是多年持续的过程，并且随着时间推移，它们将在长期内使这笔交易带来更大的回报。

Jeff Norris

Next question, please.

Jeff Norris：

下一个问题，请。

Operator

And our final question comes from John Hecht with Jefferies. You may proceed.

主持人：

最后一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 John Hecht，请提问。

John Hecht

Good afternoon, guys, and thanks for fitting me in here. First question, just thinking about the mix of the overall consumer book.

John Hecht：

下午好，大家好，谢谢安排我的问题。第一个问题是关于整体消费者贷款组合的结构。

I mean, you've got some new cards like the Venture One and Quicksilver, and some of those are attracted to different demographic groups. And then you've got the subprime mix and then you've got auto.

比如，你们有一些新推出的信用卡产品，如 Venture One 和 Quicksilver，这些产品吸引了不同的客户群体。同时，你们还有次级贷款组合和汽车贷款。

Where do we see just given kind of in-bound customer mix? Where do we see that going this year as a standalone business?

基于当前的客户组合情况，你们预计作为独立业务，今年的趋势会如何发展？

And then, Rich, do you have any comments of what the total portfolio might look like assuming the combination with Discover?

此外，Rich，你是否对假设与 Discover 合并后的总体投资组合有任何评论？

Richard Fairbank

Yes, so thank you, John. So we -- so let's -- let me take Discover just in a minute.

Richard Fairbank：

好的，谢谢你，John。让我先花一点时间谈谈 Discover。

So if you pull way up on Capital One for a long, long time, Capital One has been a sort of a full spectrum player.

从整体来看，长期以来，Capital One 一直是一个全方位的参与者。

We have had -- for several decades, we have had a subprime business that is tailor-made for the information-based strategy we have because it's all about surviving and winning on the credit side of the business.

几十年来，我们一直有一个次级贷款业务，这与我们基于信息的战略完全契合，因为它完全关乎如何在信贷业务中生存并取胜。

But also in that business, we've also very, very much focused relative to others who play in the space to degree of exceptionally good deals.

但在这一业务中，我们还非常关注与其他参与者相比提供极具竞争力的产品。

It's not just about sort of surviving on the credit side, but really giving great deals, helping people use credit wisely.

这不仅仅是关于如何在信贷领域生存，而是关于如何提供优质产品，帮助人们明智地使用信贷。

And in fact, really, I think the deals that we're offering are very, very simple and profoundly better than a lot of the deals that are available in the marketplace.

实际上，我认为我们提供的产品非常简单，并且远比市场上许多产品更具吸引力。

And so that business has -- is a very stable part of what we do at Capital One and we continue to lean into that.

因此，这项业务一直是 Capital One 非常稳定的一部分，我们会继续深耕这一领域。

The -- probably the most dramatic thing that's been happening in the last decade in Capital One's card business is, as you referenced, the quest toward the top of the market.

过去十年中，Capital One 信用卡业务中最引人注目的变化可能是你提到的向高端市场的进军。

显然不够专注，跟AMEX相比没什么吸引力。

And that is a journey that as far out as we can see, we will continue to lean into that because there is so much opportunity at the top of the market.

这是一个我们未来会继续推进的旅程，因为高端市场存在非常多的机会。

And obviously, it takes a lot of investment, but the key indicator to us that when we stratify the segments of our business by spend levels, the part that's growing the fastest consistently year after year at Capital One is the heaviest spenders. And there's just so much upside north of where we are, we will continue to invest in that.

显然，这需要大量投资，但对我们来说，一个关键指标是，当我们按消费水平对业务进行分层时，Capital One 中增长最快的部分始终是高消费客户。这一领域还有巨大的上升空间，我们将继续投资于此。

Now if you stand back, just think about our Card business, while our subprime business has been going along and we keep leaning into that, there has been a gradual mix shift upmarket for the company.

如果从更高的角度来看我们的信用卡业务，尽管我们的次级贷款业务一直在发展且我们持续深耕，但公司的业务结构正在逐步向高端市场转移。

And even within each segment, within the sort of the subprime book, the sort of the prime book, and certainly the top of the market, there has been a gradual mix change with a spender first philosophy that permeates our business.

甚至在每个细分市场中，无论是次级贷款、高端贷款，还是市场顶端，都出现了逐步的结构变化，我们的业务中贯穿了“优先服务高消费客户”的理念。

So that's -- and some of that you can see in just some of the structural changes in the payment rates at Capital One.

这一点可以从 Capital One 支付率的一些结构性变化中看出。

So I believe that what you see and what you have seen for numbers -- a number of -- for many years is a good prognosticator of probably how the future of legacy Capital One would likely go.

因此，我相信你们看到的数据多年来一直是 Capital One 未来走向的良好预示。

Meaning, continued leaning in across the spectrum, but differentially an awful lot of investment toward the top of the market and the most growth opportunity there.

这意味着我们将在整个市场范围内继续深耕，但会将大量投资倾向于市场顶端，因为那里有最多的增长机会。

苹果和AMEX都以单一产品取胜，只是需要一点勇气。

Now we -- now let me turn to Discover. Discover, interestingly, has taken a very different approach than Capital One.

现在，让我谈谈 Discover。有趣的是，Discover 采用了一种与 Capital One 非常不同的策略。

While we have taken a very broad approach playing in all parts of the market, Discover has had a very focused strategy on the prime part of the business and they've done a very, very good job there and we certainly always admired them from the outside.

我们采取了覆盖市场各个部分的广泛战略，而 Discover 专注于高端市场的策略，他们在这一领域表现非常出色，我们一直对此非常钦佩。

So we will be bringing into our company a significant increase in that portion of the market, which probably differentially got a little less emphasis if anything.

因此，我们将通过合并显著增加这一市场部分的占比，而这部分业务在我们现有策略中可能并未被充分重视。

It's not like we weren't playing there, but if anything, we had a greater emphasis probably north and south of that part of the business.

并不是说我们没有涉足这一领域，而是我们可能对这一领域以外的业务重视更多一些。

But so from a mix point of view, we certainly -- we will be bringing in a business that's very homogeneous relative to the very heterogeneous business that we have.

从业务结构的角度来看，与我们目前高度多样化的业务相比，Discover 的业务更加同质化。

And then on the other side of all of that, I think that we will -- if I were to summarize our strategy, it will be to continue.

从整体来看，如果总结我们的策略，我认为我们会继续沿用当前 Capital One 的战略。

Everything we were doing is Capital One because we're getting a lot of traction in that, and then making very sure that we don't crush the butterfly of this beautiful business model that Discover has in the prime part of the market.

我们在 Capital One 所做的一切都取得了显著进展，同时我们会非常谨慎，确保不会破坏 Discover 在高端市场中美好的商业模式。

But that we go in there and while, yes, integrating things like technology and some of the risk management processes and a lot of things, do everything that we can to make sure that we don't directly or even unwittingly sort of crush the really nice butterfly of what they do.

我们会在技术整合、风险管理流程等方面有所推进，但会尽一切努力确保我们不会直接或无意中破坏他们良好的商业模式。

And in that way, we hope to bring in a growth business that Discover has and add it to the very complementary growth businesses that Capital One has and collectively continue to try to get the best of both worlds, bringing along the way some -- better efficiencies and really bringing top technology to all aspects of the business.

通过这种方式，我们希望将 Discover 的增长业务纳入进来，与 Capital One 互补的增长业务结合，共同努力实现两全其美，同时提升效率，并将顶尖技术引入业务的各个方面。

John Hecht

Great. Very much appreciate it. Thanks.

John Hecht：

太好了，非常感谢你们。谢谢。

Jeff Norris

Well, thank you everyone for joining us on the conference call today and thank you for your continuing interest in Capital One. Have a great night, everybody.

Jeff Norris：

感谢大家今天参加我们的电话会议，并感谢你们对 Capital One 的持续关注。祝大家晚安。

Richard Fairbank

Thanks, everybody.

Richard Fairbank：

谢谢大家。

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

主持人：

本次电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。您现在可以挂断电话了。

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