2025-01-27 W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
W. R. Berkley Corporation (NYSE:WRB) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 27, 2025 5:00 PM ET
Company Participants
Rob Berkley - President & Chief Executive Officer
Rich Baio - Chief Financial Officer
Bill Berkley - Executive Chairman
Conference Call Participants
Alex Scott - Barclays
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Andrew Kligerman - TD Securities
Mark Hughes - Truist Securities
Mike Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets
Katie Sakys - Autonomous Research
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Meyer Shields - KBW
Brian Meredith - UBS
Josh Shanker - Bank of America
Operator
主持人
Good day, and welcome to W. R. Berkley Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded.
大家好，欢迎参加W. R. Berkley公司2024年第四季度及全年业绩电话会议。今天的电话会议正在录音。
The speakers' remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, believes, expects or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates, or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved.
发言者的言论中可能包含前瞻性陈述。一些前瞻性陈述可以通过使用包括但不限于“相信”“预期”或“估计”等前瞻性用语加以辨别。我们提醒您，这些前瞻性陈述不应被视为我们对于未来计划、估算或预期必定实现的保证。
Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. W. R. Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
有关我们所处的业务环境以及可能对我们业绩产生重大影响的重要因素，请参阅我们截至2023年12月31日的Form 10-K年度报告以及我们向美国证券交易委员会提交的其他文件。W. R. Berkley公司没有任何义务，也明确否认有义务根据新的信息、未来事件或其他情况更新或修改其前瞻性陈述。
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir.
现在我将把电话交给Rob Berkley先生。请开始。
Rob Berkley
罗布·伯克利
Lisa, thank you very much, and good afternoon all. And let me echo Lisa's welcome to our fourth quarter call.
谢谢你，Lisa。大家下午好。我也想借此机会对各位参加我们的第四季度电话会议表示欢迎。
So, as in the past, we have Bill Berkley, Executive Chairman, joining on this end along with Rich Baio, Chief Financial Officer. And we're going to follow our typical agenda where shortly I'm going to hand it over to Rich. He's going to walk us through some highlights. I'm going to then follow-up with a few quick comments on my end. And then, we'll be very happy to take the conversation in any direction that participants wish to take in.
和往常一样，我们今天有执行董事长Bill Berkley与我们同在，还有首席财务官Rich Baio。我们将按照惯例进行议程，稍后我会把话筒交给Rich，他会带我们回顾一些重点内容。之后我会做一些简短的补充，然后很乐意在问答环节与各位讨论任何话题。
Before I do hand it over to Rich, just a very quick comment really not just on behalf of myself but on behalf of all of my colleagues expressing our concern for all who have been impacted not just by the recent events in California and these horrific fires, but also we shouldn't forget about the many people that were terribly impacted during the 2024 year as a result of hurricanes and other events. From our perspective, it is certainly a moment for the industry to demonstrate its value to society. I know that my colleagues and I are very focused on ensuring that we, as an organization, do what we are supposed to do to live up to our responsibilities and certainly our hope that our peers at other organizations will be doing the same.
在我将话筒交给Rich之前，我想代表我本人以及所有同事，向那些不仅受到近期加州野火影响，而且在2024年中因飓风及其他事件而遭受严重影响的人们表达关切。对我们而言，这确实是行业向社会证明自身价值的时刻。我和同事们都在努力确保我们作为一个组织能够切实履行应尽的责任，也真心希望我们的同行也能同样作为。
So with that, I will hand it over to Rich. Rich, if you want to run us through the highlights and then we'll take it from there.
好的，下面我就把话筒交给Rich。Rich，如果你能带领我们浏览一下重点内容，我们之后再继续。
Rich Baio
Great. Thanks, Rob. Appreciate it. Good evening, everyone.
非常好，谢谢你，Rob。非常感激。各位晚上好。
The 2024 full year closed out with record top-line and bottom-line results, yielding return on equity of 23.6% and operating return on equity of 22.4%. The fourth quarter record operating earnings increased 15.5% to $453 million or $1.13 per share, with an operating return on equity of 24.3%. Net income represented our second best quarter, increasing 45% to $576 million or $1.44 per share, with return on equity of 30.9%.
2024年全年以创纪录的营收和利润收官，股本回报率（ROE）达到23.6%，运营ROE为22.4%。第四季度创纪录的运营收益同比增长15.5%，达4.53亿美元，每股收益1.13美元，运营ROE为24.3%。净利润则是我们历史上第二高的季度，增长45%至5.76亿美元，折合每股1.44美元，ROE达到30.9%。
The key drivers behind the quarter were strong underwriting results, combined with the continuation of growth in our core investment portfolio.
本季度的主要推动力是强劲的承保业绩，以及核心投资组合的持续增长。
Starting with underwriting performance. Our current accident year combined ratio before cat losses of 2.6 loss ratio points was 87.7%, consistent with the full year 2024. The calendar year combined ratio was 90.2%, resulting in $294 million of underwriting income, bringing the full year 2024 to 90.3% and a record underwriting income of more than $1.1 billion. The prior year development was favorable by $1.6 million in the quarter.
先来看承保表现。在扣除2.6个百分点的巨灾损失之前，本年度事故的综合成本率为87.7%，与2024年全年水平保持一致。自然年度的综合成本率为90.2%，带来2.94亿美元的承保收益，使2024年全年综合成本率达到90.3%，并创下逾11亿美元的承保收益纪录。同期往年准备金在本季度带来160万美元的利好影响。
Drilling down further into the component parts, the current accident year loss ratio ex cats was 59.2%, which ticked up slightly from the prior year due to business mix and remains flat to the full years 2024 and 2023. Cat losses increased over the prior year, primarily due to Hurricane Milton, driving the increase quarter-over-quarter of 1.4 loss ratio points.
进一步拆分来看，未含巨灾的本年度事故赔付率为59.2%，由于业务结构的原因，较上年略微上升，与2024年和2023年的全年水平基本持平。巨灾损失较上年有所增加，主要是因为米尔顿飓风的影响，导致本季度赔付率比上年同期提升了1.4个百分点。
The expense ratio of 28.4% was flat to the prior-year quarter, continuing to benefit from record net premiums earned of more than $3 billion and initiatives driving technological and operational efficiencies throughout the business. We believe 2025 will reflect an expense ratio comfortably below 30%.
本季度的费用率为28.4%，与去年同期持平，主要受益于逾30亿美元的创纪录净已赚保费，以及持续在全公司范围内推行的技术与运营效率提升举措。我们相信2025年的费用率将能稳定保持在30%以下。
The full year 2024 marked another record year on top-line. The gross and net premiums written grew 9.6% and 9.3%, respectively.
2024年全年在营收方面又是一个创纪录的年度。总承保保费和净承保保费分别增长9.6%和9.3%。
2015年初股价12.34，现在60.35，10年5倍，仅次于PGR的表现。
In the fourth quarter, the Insurance segment's net premiums written increased 9.9% to more than $2.6 billion, with growth in all lines of business. The Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment grew in property and monoline excess with a decrease in casualty due to the competitive pricing environment.
第四季度，保险业务部门的净承保保费增长9.9%，突破26亿美元，所有业务条线均实现增长。再保险及单一超额业务部门在财产险和单一超额方面呈现增长，而责任险由于市场定价竞争加剧而有所下降。
Moving on to investments. The core portfolio increased 9.4% to $313 million. We do expect the core portfolio to continue to grow over the fourth quarter 2024 in the foreseeable future due to higher new money rates compared with the roll-off book yield and growth in the size of the investment portfolio.
接下来谈谈投资情况。核心投资组合收入增长9.4%，达到3.13亿美元。由于新投资利率高于到期资产收益率，加之投资组合规模扩大，我们预计在可预见的未来，尤其是2024年第四季度之后，核心投资组合还将持续增长。
Our record operating cash flow from 2024 of almost $3.7 billion followed the year before's operating cash flow of $2.9 billion, which was also a record, and has enabled us to invest more while maintaining the high credit quality of AA minus.
我们在2024年的运营现金流约为37亿美元，再次刷新纪录。此前一年的运营现金流为29亿美元，也创下过纪录。这使得我们在保持AA-的高信用评级的同时，能够投入更多资金进行投资。
In addition, we've increased our investment duration from 2.4 years to 2.6 years in the quarter.
此外，本季度我们将投资久期从2.4年延长至2.6年。
And at the end of 2024, we had cash and cash equivalents of almost $2 billion.
截至2024年年底，我们持有的现金及现金等价物接近20亿美元。
Net investment gains were primarily driven by favorable market value movements in common and preferred equity securities. Investments in the energy and certain financial services sectors led to the $163 million unrealized gain.
投资净收益主要来自普通股和优先股价值的利好变动。在能源和部分金融服务领域的投资带来了1.63亿美元的未实现收益。
Effective tax rate of 21% in the quarter benefited from the utilization of some foreign valuation allowances established against operating loss carry-forwards and true-up adjustments for prior periods. This brings our full year effective tax rate to 22.5% and we expect 2025 will be 23%, plus or minus.
本季度的有效税率为21%，收益于对部分外国估值备抵以及前期调整的利用，从而对运营亏损结转进行抵扣。这样使得我们全年的有效税率达到22.5%，我们预计2025年将在23%左右上下浮动。
As it relates to capital, the stockholders' equity increased 12.6% to $8.4 billion, primarily due to record net income of $1.8 billion, partially offset by the return of capital to shareholders of $836 million through dividends and share repurchases.
在资本方面，股东权益增长12.6%至84亿美元，主要得益于创纪录的18亿美元净利润，同时也受到向股东返还的8.36亿美元资金（股息与回购）的部分抵消。
In the fourth quarter, we paid regular and special dividends of $220 million and repurchased $67 million in shares.
第四季度，我们支付了2.2亿美元的常规及特别股息，并回购了价值6700万美元的股票。
Our after-tax unrealized investment loss is $517 million as of year-end 2024, an improvement of $69 million from the prior year.
截至2024年底，我们的税后未实现投资亏损为5.17亿美元，较去年同期减少6900万美元。
And finally, book value per share before repurchases and dividends grew 23.5% for the full year.
最后，在剔除回购和分红影响之前，我们每股账面价值在全年增长了23.5%。
Rob, I'll turn it back to you.
Rob，我把话筒交还给你。
Rob Berkley
Okay. Rich, thank you very much. Very clear, and sure appreciated by all.
好的，Rich，非常感谢。非常清晰，也得到了大家的由衷感谢。
So, before I offer a few thoughts on the marketplace and then on our quarter, just highlighting the obvious at this stage as you've likely had an opportunity to flip through the release and would have heard Rich's comments.
那么，在我对市场以及我们本季度的表现给出一些看法之前，我想先强调一下目前这个阶段一些显而易见的事实，因为你们可能已经看过我们的公告，也听到了Rich的评论。
2024 was truly another exceptional year for the organization. And I did -- before we get into the nooks and crannies that we typically do on these calls, I did want to take a moment just to pause and both thank and congratulate our roughly 7,300 colleagues for yet again a job very well done. The three of us have the privilege of speaking on behalf of the full team, but as a reminder to all, this is a team sport and the outcome is a reflection of the team, not just the folks that happen to be speaking to you on this call today. So again, to the team, thank you and truly congratulations on yet another great performance.
2024年对我们公司来说确实是另一个卓越非凡的年度。在我们像往常一样深入探讨各种细节之前，我想花一点时间来暂停一下，向我们大约7300名同事表示感谢并送上祝贺，你们再一次完成了一项卓越的工作。我们三人能够代表整个团队发言是一种荣幸，但同时也要提醒大家，这是一个团队协作的成果，而不只是今天在电话会议上向你们发言的几个人所能决定的。因此，再次向团队表示感谢，并衷心祝贺你们又一次取得了如此优异的成绩。
Maybe pivoting over to a couple of thoughts on the marketplace, as far as much of the liability market, it continues to be plagued by social inflation. The combination of an emboldened plaintiff bar along with quite frankly, this jet fuel that they have in their back pocket, otherwise known as litigation funding, continues just to up the game.
接下来我想谈一谈市场方面的想法，就大部分责任险市场而言，社会通胀依然对其造成困扰。原告律师群体变得更为大胆坦率，再加上他们获得了相当于“火箭燃料”的资金支持，也就是我们所说的诉讼资助，这些因素共同提升了理赔的激烈程度。
That having been said, social inflation does not apply to all product lines equally. So, maybe to give an example or to be more specific, while it is certainly prevalent in most places within the liability space, if you look at certain lines of business where claims are more exposed or is more commonplace where there is actually physical injury to someone, you will see a reaction coming out of a jury that tends to be far more inflated. By example, the type of awards that are coming out related to auto liability or med mal and the inflation that we are seeing in those types of claims is far more than what we would be seeing in the D&O space or what we would be seeing in the accountants' liability space, just to pick a few to try and articulate the point.
需要说明的是，社会通胀并不等同地影响所有产品线。举个例子，或者说更具体一点，虽然在大多数责任险领域都广泛存在社会通胀，但在某些更容易出现实际人身伤害的业务条线里，你会看到陪审团在裁决时给出的赔偿金额往往会极具膨胀。比方说，与汽车责任险或医疗事故相关的裁决金额以及这类赔案中我们所观察到的通胀幅度，要比我们在董责险或会计师责任险领域所见到的高得多。这只是举几个例子来说明问题。
One of the things that's been both surprising and, quite frankly, a bit disappointing to me has been how slow or sluggish the reinsurance market has been to respond to social inflation and some of the challenges. It is our suspicion that you are seeing a gradual groundswell that is building and we will see discipline coming to the casualty reinsurance market, hopefully over the coming months and years, and that will create an opportunity for our colleagues in the reinsurance space. But in the meantime, when there is that lack of discipline, we very much applaud our colleagues for the discipline that they are exercising.
令我感到惊讶并且坦白说有点失望的是，再保险市场对于社会通胀及其所带来的挑战的应对相对缓慢或迟滞。我们预计会有一个逐渐积聚的趋势，或许在接下来的几个月或几年里会看到责任险再保险市场的纪律性重新回归，从而为我们在再保险领域的同仁创造机会。但在此之前，我们对内部同事的自律表现还是非常赞赏的，毕竟当市场缺乏纪律时，他们依然坚持了应有的标准。
Pivoting over to the short tail line, specifically property, certainly for the moment and we'll have to see what the impact of the California fires is, but for the moment, property insurance, there is still a tailwind, but it is slowing. And if you pivot over to the property reinsurance market and even more so the retro market, it is clear that at 1/1, there was no tailwind to be found. In fact, it was quite to the contrary, there was a growing headwind. By example, our property cat renewal risk-adjusted was down 15%-ish and a similar percentage for our retro.
再说到短尾险种，尤其是财产险，目前我们还要继续观察加州野火造成的影响，不过就当前而言，财产险依然有顺风趋势，但增势已经放缓。如果再看财产再保险市场，尤其是再保险的复转分保市场，可以明显看到在1月1日时，这里并没有顺风趋势。事实上，情况正好相反，还有越来越大的逆风。举个例子，我们财产巨灾的续保经过风险调整后下降了大约15%，而复转分保的下降幅度也类似。
Moving on to our quarter, I don't have a lot to add and I guess at the risk of being a little bit repetitive following Rich, the net written premium was 8%, but going back to a comment earlier and what Rich had unpacked for us a little bit, I think you need to look at that a little more carefully. And the fact of the matter is if you back out the casualty reinsurance where we find market conditions to be concerning and we believe that more of a defensive posture is appropriate, if you back that out, we're at 10%. Rate ex workers' comp came in at 7.7%. Renewal retention ratio a little bit above 80, which continues to be very consistent with what it's been for at this stage, I don't know how many quarters or, for that matter, how many years.
接着谈到我们这一季度，我其实没有太多需要补充的内容。我想，虽然要稍微重复一下Rich的话，但是值得注意的是，我们的净承保保费增长为8%。不过前面Rich已经解释过其中的一些细节，我觉得还需要仔细地再看一看。如果把我们认为市况比较令人担忧、更倾向于防御性立场的责任险再保险业务剔除掉，我们的增长其实是10%。扣除劳工补偿险后的费率增长是7.7%，保单续保率略高于80%，这和之前几个季度或若干年一贯的表现基本一致。
On the expense front, the 28.4%, Rich talked about continuing to be sub-30% for the foreseeable. Richie, this is a little bit of a heads up. I'm going to ask you to talk about expenses for a moment. But if you go back and you look at the journey that we've been on, we've been able to hold the line on expenses through investment in technology along with the utilization of BPO. And if you think about where our expense ratio was pre-COVID and where we are today, even with the COVID benefit on expenses having gone away, we continue to be in a very good place.
再来说到费用方面，这个季度是28.4%，Rich也提到，未来可预见的一段时间内仍会低于30%。Richie，我这里先预告一下，我等下会请你再详细谈一下费用方面的情况。不过如果我们回顾一下这些年来的历程，通过在技术上的投资以及外包业务（BPO）的运用，我们确实在控制费用方面下了很大功夫。即使疫情所带来的成本红利已经消失，但相比疫情前的费用率，我们现在的水平仍然非常不错。
So, I'm going to keep going in a minute, but I'm going to take a pause, catch my breath. And Richie, if you want to speak to expenses for a moment, please?
我稍后还会继续，但先让我停一下，喘口气。Richie，能不能请你先说说费用方面的一些看法？
Rich Baio
Sure. So, as Rob alluded to, certainly post-COVID, we've benefited where our expense ratio has been in the low 20%s to mid-20% -- low 28% to 28.5% area. But proceeding that, going back to 2020 and prior, certainly began with a three handle. And if we go back to the decade ago, basically at 33%-and-change. So, certainly have seen close to a 5-point improvement in the expense ratio over that period of time.
当然。正如Rob所提到的，自COVID之后，我们的费用率一直处于低20%到中20%的水平——大约在28%到28.5%的区间内，这给我们带来了好处。但追溯到2020年及之前，费用率最初大约在30%左右；如果回到十年前，基本上在33%左右。可以说，在这段时间内，费用率大约改善了5个百分点.
Rob Berkley
And I would just add to that, one needs to keep in mind our mix of business and a meaningful amount of the business we write has an acquisition cost that is greater due to the fact that we do a fair amount of business in the wholesale market.
我还要补充一点，大家需要牢记我们的业务组合，其中相当一部分业务由于在批发市场上操作，其获取成本较高.
So, Rich covered the combined ratio. Again, a 90.2%, given the cat activity in the quarter, not a bad place to come out. Speaking of that, on the topic of cats, obviously, it's very early to be speculating around California and what it will mean, but I would just remind folks that we are California light when it comes to property. Obviously, one of the areas that has gotten a lot of attention is the personal line space and our efforts, known as Berkley One within the private client personal line space, we do not participate in the California market. So hopefully that is helpful. And I think the punch line is, while I'm sure we will have some loss activity associated with the fires, I expect that it will not keep us from still delivering a respectable return to our shareholders in Q1 based on everything I can see today.
Rich已经介绍了综合成本率，依然为90.2%，考虑到本季度的巨灾活动，这样的水平其实不错。说到巨灾，显然现在对加州局势的预测还为时过早，但我想提醒大家，就财产险而言，我们在加州的业务量较轻。显然，受到广泛关注的一个领域是个人险市场，我们在私人客户个人险领域的努力，即所谓的Berkley One，并不参与加州市场。希望这对大家有所帮助。我的核心观点是，虽然我们预计火灾会带来一些损失活动，但根据我目前所看到的一切，我相信这不会阻止我们在第一季度为股东提供一个可观的回报.
Switching over to the investments, again, Rich covered this. The AA minus continues to get stronger with every passing day and we're feeling very good about that. Simultaneously, you would note as Rich flagged the duration. We've talked about this for some number of quarters. When we see the opportunity, we're going to nudge that duration out. We saw an opportunity, so it popped out from 2.4-and-change out to 2.6-and-change. And again, we feel no pressure, but when we see the window of opportunity, our colleagues are not going to let that pass by without taking advantage of it.
再来说说投资部分，Rich也提到了这一点。AA-级的评级正日益增强，我们对此感到非常满意。同时，正如Rich提到的投资久期，我们已经讨论了好几个季度。当看到机会时，我们会适时延长投资久期。我们发现了一个机会，因此将久期从大约2.4年延长到了大约2.6年。我们并不感到有任何压力，但当机遇出现时，我们的同事绝不会错过利用它的机会.
I think another data point that really plays into the whole economic model and I think as we've talked about over the past couple of quarters, when we were going through an extended period of time and interest rates were reduced or depressed, if you will, I think a lot of folks forgot about the component of our economic model that being the investment portfolio and investment income. Obviously, that has been reawoken. Everyone can see that, but that story is not fully told at this stage.
我认为另一个真正体现我们整体经济模型的重要数据点是，在过去几个季度中，当我们经历一段利率低迷或压抑的时期时，许多人几乎忘记了我们经济模型中投资组合及投资收入这一组成部分。显然，这部分已经重新焕发活力。大家都能看出来，但目前这个故事还未完全讲述清楚.
So, a couple of data points for you. Our domestic book yield for the quarter was approximately 4.6%. Our new money rate today is 5.25%-plus. So, as you can see, that increase along with the cash flow that Rich talked about for the year of $3.7 billion or $810 million in the quarter, we have a growing portfolio where new money rate is considerably above the book yield, and I think we all know what that means.
给大家提供几个数据点。本季度我们的国内账面收益率大约为4.6%。而目前的新资金收益率超过5.25%。正如大家所看到的，这一增长，加上Rich提到的全年37亿美元或本季度8.1亿美元的现金流，我们拥有一个不断增长的投资组合，其中新资金收益率明显高于账面收益率，我相信大家都明白这意味着什么.
So, long story short, what's the punch line? It's the following: 2025 is a year that we think the table is already set and it's set in a very attractive way. And with every passing day, we're setting the table more and more for 2026. The reality is that our underwriting margin is likely to improve from here over time and certainly at a minimum will not be deteriorating.
长话短说，重点是：我们认为2025年已经为我们奠定了一个非常有吸引力的基础，而随着每一天的过去，我们正为2026年铺设更为坚实的基础。事实上，我们的承保利润率有望随着时间的推移进一步改善，至少不会继续恶化.
In addition to that, as far as the investment portfolio, the other key component of our economic model, as I mentioned just a moment ago, the investable assets continue to grow at a healthy pace, and that new money rate given our view on where quite frankly government borrowing is going to need to be, where inflation is going to be, there will continue to be an opportunity for us to put money to work at a healthy spread above the current book yield. As it is today, we do not see that disappearing overnight.
另外，就投资组合而言，作为我们经济模型中的另一个关键组成部分，正如我刚才提到的，可投资资产正以健康的速度持续增长。考虑到我们对政府借贷水平以及通胀水平的判断，新资金收益率始终高于当前账面收益率，我们仍将有机会以一个良好的利差将资金投入运作。就目前而言，我们并不认为这种状况会一夜之间消失.
So, obviously, people will digest and process the data any way they like, but the numbers and the information that we shared with you all today, those are statements of fact and, quite frankly, you don't need to be particularly insightful to see how the story is likely to unfold, not just over the 25 year, but more and more likely with every passing day 26 and perhaps beyond.
显然，各位会以自己喜欢的方式消化和解读这些数据，但我们今天所分享的数字和信息都是事实陈述，坦率地说，不需要特别深刻的见解就能看出这个故事将如何展开，不仅在25年内，甚至在26年及以后的日子里也会如此.
Okay. That was as usual probably more than I promised. Why don't we pause there, and Lisa, if we could go ahead and open it up for Q&A?
好了，通常来说我说的可能已经超过了承诺。那我们先暂停一下，Lisa，请开始开放问答环节.
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
主持人
Absolutely. [Operator Instructions] We'll take the first question today from Alex Scott, Barclays.
绝对可以。[操作员说明] 我们今天将首先提问的是来自Barclays的Alex Scott。
Rob Berkley
Hi, Alex. Good afternoon.
嗨，Alex。下午好。
Alex Scott
Good afternoon. First one I have for you all is just, how we should think through balancing growth? It sounded like you're not willing to budge on the margins you're seeing and potential improvement even. Just given the landscape, particularly for reinsurance, but even in insurance with what's going on with property, do you think we're going to go through a period where we have to potentially be lower than where you all would like to be on growth over the medium to long term? And how does that get balanced out with potential capital return and just how we should think about where you'd run your leverage through a period like that?
下午好。我第一个问题是，我们该如何考虑在平衡增长方面的问题？听起来你们不愿在所看到的利润率和潜在改进上作出让步。考虑到目前的环境，尤其是在再保险领域，但即便在财产保险方面也是如此，你认为我们是否会经历一个增长水平可能低于你们期望水平的时期？那么这又如何与潜在的资本回报相平衡，以及我们应如何看待在这种时期内运用杠杆的情况？
Rob Berkley
Well, a, thank you for the question, and b, my thoughts on it are as follows. We as an organization are unapologetic in the fact that we're in business to make good risk-adjusted returns. We will write the business and lean into it when we think the margin is there and we will have no qualms taking a more defensive posture when we don't think the margin is there.
嗯，首先，非常感谢这个问题，其次，我的看法如下。我们作为一个组织，毫不掩饰我们从事业务的目的就是要获得良好的风险调整回报。当我们认为利润率充足时，我们会积极承保；而当我们觉得利润率不足时，我们也毫不犹豫地采取更为防御的策略。
I think we have demonstrated that time and time again and you can see that actually we lay the numbers out for you on Slide 7 or Page 7, if you will, of our press release, and you can see our casualty reinsurance in the quarter was down more than 15%. That's because of the comments not only that I shared earlier today, but we have talked about in past quarters and earlier where we just don't think that the market is exercising the discipline and quite frankly is expecting an appropriate risk-adjusted return. So, we will participate where we think it makes sense and not.
我认为我们已经一再证明了这一点，你可以在我们新闻稿的第7页或幻灯片7上看到相关数字，并且可以看到本季度我们的责任险再保险业务下降了15%以上。这不仅与我今天早些时候所提到的评论有关，也与我们过去几个季度讨论过的情况有关，即我们认为市场并未保持应有的纪律性，也未能期待合适的风险调整回报。所以，我们只会在认为合适的地方参与，而不会盲目跟进。
So, when you put that all together, Alex, we can only control what we can control. We can't control the market. We can control our behavior. We are seeing opportunities in much of the market today. We think we have great colleagues with great expertise. They understand how to separate the wheat from the chaff, and I think we're in a pretty good place.
综上所述，Alex，我们只能控制我们能控制的事。市场我们无法掌控，唯有掌握自己的行为。如今我们在市场中看到许多机会，我们认为我们的同事专业能力出众，他们懂得如何区分优劣，我认为我们处于一个相当不错的状态。
非常坦率的问答。
Again, if you look at some of the growth in the insurance front and you can see the opportunity that while slowing still exists even on the property reinsurance front, we're going to try and take advantage of that. But when the day is all done, we think that there is still a lot of opportunity out there and we're looking to capitalize on it. And our comment around opportunity to grow, nobody knows for sure until you're there, but at this stage, the fact is we have a lot of -- we have businesses that when you put it all together are growing at high-single-digit or more, and there are parts of our business, quite frankly, that are growing at a much higher rate.
再者，如果你观察保险业务的增长，就会发现机会依然存在，即使在财产再保险领域增长有所放缓，我们仍会努力利用这些机会。但归根结底，我们认为市场上仍有大量机会等待我们去捕捉。关于增长机会，我们的意思是，直到你亲身经历之前没人能完全确定，但就目前而言，事实是我们的业务总体增长率处于高个位数以上，而且我们部分业务的增长速度甚至更高。
So, again, hopefully, that was a lot of babble on my part, but if you look at Slide 7, I think -- or Page 7 of the release, it demonstrates we grow where the margin is. And so, what does that mean? We think the business should be able to continue to grow at a healthy rate in excess of trend.
所以，再次说明一下，虽然我可能有些啰嗦，但如果你看一下幻灯片7或新闻稿的第7页，就能看到我们在利润率合适的地方实现增长。那么，这意味着什么呢？我们认为业务应该能够以超过趋势的健康速度持续增长。
Alex Scott
Got it. That's all very helpful. Maybe focusing a little more on the primary side, I guess, we heard from one of the other smaller specialty companies that property, they were seeing a lot of competition. I think they flagged MGAs. I think others have flagged the Lloyd's market. How is price adequacy in property within the insurance business? And is that still a place that you can grow your targeted profitability?
明白了。这些信息非常有帮助。或许再多关注一下主业方面，我记得我们听说其他一些小型专业公司在财产险方面面临激烈竞争。我认为他们提到了管理型中介（MGAs），还有人提到了劳合社市场。那么，在保险业务中，财产险的定价是否合理？这是否仍然是一个能够实现目标盈利增长的领域？
Rob Berkley
We think that there is still an opportunity, generally speaking, in property. That having been said, it's reasonably evident that there is a bit more competition today than there was yesterday in certain pockets. We'll have to see what the impact is of the California fires, whether that changes the appetite of some. But yes, as I tried to articulate earlier, I think for property insurance, there is still a tailwind, but it is clearly diminished from what it was yesterday. But it has not become a headwind or eroding to the extent that the reinsurance market has on the property front.
我们认为总体来说，财产险依然存在机会。不过，需要指出的是，在某些细分市场上，今天的竞争明显比过去更为激烈。我们还需观察加州火灾的影响，看是否会改变部分市场的承保意愿。但正如我之前所表达的，我认为财产保险仍享有顺风优势，只是这一优势已不如以往明显，并未转变为像再保险市场那样对财产业务产生显著阻力。
Alex Scott
Got it. Thank you.
明白了，谢谢。
Rob Berkley
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
The next question is from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.
主持人
接下来的问题来自Wells Fargo的Elyse Greenspan。
Rob Berkley
Elyse, good afternoon.
Rob Berkley
Elyse，下午好。
Elyse Greenspan
Hi, thanks. Good evening. My first question on -- you guys in the last couple of calls, right, have been willing to kind of provide the reserve breakdown, right, by segment. I was hoping you could give that to us tonight and then just provide any color you might have seen within insurance or reinsurance that stands out with short or long tail reserves in the quarter.
Elyse Greenspan
嗨，谢谢。晚上好。我的第一个问题是——在过去几次电话会议中，你们已经愿意按业务板块提供准备金的分解，我希望今晚你们能把这个数据提供给我们，同时也请分享一下在保险或再保险中，你们是否观察到某些短尾或长尾准备金方面有特别显著的情况。
Rob Berkley
Elyse, I don't have it in front of me. I think what -- if you wouldn't mind, Rich can probably give that to you or Karen. Karen, if you wouldn't mind just circling up after the call because we wouldn't want to give you anything but the accurate information.
Rob Berkley
Elyse，我手头没有数据。如果可以的话，Rich可能能为你提供这些信息，或者Karen也可以。如果可以的话，Karen，请在电话会后联系我们，因为我们只想提供准确的信息。
As far as where are the challenges, I think as we've talked about in past calls, we're paying close attention to auto liability and we're paying close attention to access, particularly -- and umbrella and particularly how auto liability feeds into that. Going the other way, workers' compensation continues to be a good guy, and we have some other lines where it continues to be very encouraging as well. I think the actions that we have taken regarding auto, both in the primary and how it applies to the excess, are well entrenched at this stage. So, I would never go so far as to declare victory prematurely, but I think we're on the right path.
至于面临的挑战，就像我们在之前的电话中讨论过的那样，我们正在密切关注汽车责任险以及相关的附加险，特别是关注汽车责任险如何与伞险结合。同时，工伤赔偿险依然表现良好，我们在其他业务线上也看到了非常鼓舞人心的迹象。我认为我们在汽车业务上所采取的措施——无论是主险还是超额险部分——在当前阶段都已非常稳固。因此，我不会过早宣布胜利，但我相信我们正走在正确的道路上。
Elyse Greenspan
Thanks. And it sounds like from your comments, right, you guys are pretty cautious, right, on the casualty reinsurance market. So, as you think about how that market, I guess, could play out in '25 as well as, right, other markets, be that other long or short tail lines, do you think you'd get back Rob to 10% to 15%? I know, right, it's less top-line to grow. You don't want to grow in areas, right, that aren't offering good opportunities. How do you see growth from a top-line perspective playing out in 2025?
Elyse Greenspan
谢谢。从你的发言中听起来，你们对责任险再保险市场相当谨慎。那么，考虑到这个市场在2025年以及其他市场中——无论是长尾还是短尾业务——的表现，你认为责任险再保险业务能否恢复到10%到15%的水平？我知道，这意味着顶层增长较低，你们不会在那些没有良好机会的领域扩张。你如何看待2025年顶层增长的表现？
Rob Berkley
So, this is the part where I guess you see if I take the bait or not. And I guess the answer is this. I don't know with any greater certainty than anyone else what 2025 is going to hold for us. I believe that there should be an opportunity for this organization for the 2025 year to grow in double digits. Is it possible that that could prove to be 9%? Yes, it is. Is it possible that that could prove to be 16%? Yes, it is. But do I think that we should be able to grow our exposure in something in excess of the rate that we are achieving? Yes, I do. And given that we are getting more than 7 points of rate, I think that that should help us get to what I'm pointing you in the direction of.
Rob Berkley
这部分可能会考验我是否中招。我的回答是这样的：我并不比其他人更确定2025年会给我们带来什么。我相信，2025年我们公司有机会实现两位数的增长。是否可能增长只有9%？可能；是否可能达到16%？也可能。但我认为我们应该能够使我们的业务规模增长超过当前的增速。是的，我确实这样认为。考虑到我们的费率增长超过7个百分点，我相信这将有助于我们实现我所指的增长目标。
Elyse Greenspan
And then, one last one. Was there anything -- it looks like the insurance underlying loss ratio maybe ticked up a little bit in the quarter from where it had been running. Was there anything one-off...
Elyse Greenspan
还有最后一个问题。看起来保险业务的基本赔付率本季度可能比之前略有上升，是否有一些一次性的因素导致这种变化？
Rob Berkley
Yeah, maybe about 0.5 point or so. And I would caution you not to read too deeply into it because Rich and I did spend some time on this and it really just boiled down to mix of business.
Rob Berkley
是的，大概上升了0.5个百分点左右。我建议你不要过度解读，因为Rich和我已经花了一些时间讨论这个问题，归根结底主要是由于业务组合的变化所致。
Elyse Greenspan
Okay. Thank you.
Elyse Greenspan
好的，谢谢。
Operator
The next question is from Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.
主持人
接下来的问题来自TD Securities的Andrew Kligerman。
Rob Berkley
Hi, Andrew. Good evening.
Rob Berkley
嗨，Andrew。晚上好。
Andrew Kligerman
Hey, thanks a lot. Good evening. Looking at the other liability net written premium, it was up at a solid 9.5%. And if I remember correctly, Rob, you had expressed a fair amount of optimism around pricing in the insurance casualty line in October, and you felt pretty good that it might see some pickup. Could you kind of elaborate on where that is now in January?
Andrew Kligerman
嗨，非常感谢。晚上好。观察其他责任险净承保保费，增长率稳定在9.5%。如果我没记错的话，Rob，你在十月份曾对保险责任险的定价持相当乐观的态度，并认为它可能会回升。能否详细说明一下现在一月份的情况如何？
Rob Berkley
So, I've not seen our January price monitor, so I'm a little bit on my heels. That having been said, based on the anecdotal information that I have heard from colleagues, I think that the momentum continues to be very strong around rate achieved on much of the liability and other liability included in that.
Rob Berkley
我还没看到我们一月份的价格监控数据，所以对具体情况还不太确定。不过，根据我从同事那里听到的一些零星信息，我认为在大部分责任险及相关业务的定价上，势头依然非常强劲。
Andrew Kligerman
Okay. So, it's strong. So, Rob, what's the disconnect between your concerns about the reinsurance casualty pricing? How do you reconcile the reinsurance pricing coming off? And I think you said down 15%...
Andrew Kligerman
好的，所以表现确实强劲。那么，Rob，你对再保险责任险定价的担忧和现状之间存在何种不匹配？你如何解释再保险定价下调的情况？我记得你提到下降了15%……
Rob Berkley
Our premium -- just to be clear, sorry, our premium was down about just shy of 15.5% for our casualty reinsurance in the quarter.
Rob Berkley
为了说明清楚，对不起，本季度我们的责任险再保险保费下降了大约15.5%。
Andrew Kligerman
For casualty, and yet you seem to like it on the primary level. Could you maybe reconcile the two and why you're far less favorably disposed on reinsurance casualty?
Andrew Kligerman
针对责任险来说，而在主险层面你又似乎看好。你能否解释一下两者之间的差异，以及为什么你对再保险责任险的看法明显不如主险？
Rob Berkley
Because I think the casualty reinsurance market needs more discipline and they need to charge more, whether that be through adjusting ceding commissions or in an XOL basis getting at it a different way.
Rob Berkley
因为我认为再保险责任险市场需要更严格的纪律，并且需要提高收费，无论是通过调整分出佣金，还是通过超额损失保险等其他方式来实现。
Andrew Kligerman
Interesting.
Andrew Kligerman
有意思。
Rob Berkley
And I think there's a disconnect. No different than if you go back a few years ago before the reinsurance market woke up, there was a disconnect between property primary and property reinsurance.
Rob Berkley
我认为这存在不一致之处。就像几年前再保险市场尚未觉醒时，财产主险与财产再保险之间也存在差异一样。
Andrew Kligerman
Interesting. And then maybe one last quick one. International, not a lot of color on that, but kind of curious because your insurance ops are in Asia, Latin America, UK, Europe. Any color that you could share with us on what's going on abroad and how you're seeing those markets for your business?
Andrew Kligerman
有意思。还有最后一个简短问题。关于国际市场，虽然你们没有提供太多信息，但我很好奇，因为你们的保险业务遍布亚洲、拉丁美洲、英国和欧洲。你能否分享一些海外市场的动态，以及你们如何看待这些市场？
Rob Berkley
Well, obviously, we participate in a lot of different markets and no one is a mere image of another including the market conditions. But what I would tell you is this, that we have some really exceptional people running those businesses and they are amongst some of our highest margin businesses. And going back in time, that hasn't always been the case across the board, but some of our best risk-adjusted returns are coming from -- are being generated by our colleagues outside of the United States. I think there are certainly parts of the international effort where the market is particularly competitive and the opportunity to grow has become more challenging. Nevertheless, our colleagues and their ability to navigate through those competitive environments, I think we have a great deal of confidence in.
Rob Berkley
显然，我们参与了许多不同的市场，每个市场的情况都各不相同。但我要告诉你的是，我们有一些非常出色的人才在管理这些业务，他们经营的业务也是我们利润率最高的部分之一。回顾过去，这种情况并不总是普遍存在，但我们最好的风险调整回报正是由美国以外的同事创造的。我认为在国际市场中，确实有些领域竞争尤为激烈，增长机会也变得更具挑战性。尽管如此，我们对这些同事在应对竞争环境中的能力充满信心。
Andrew Kligerman
Thanks a lot.
Andrew Kligerman
非常感谢。
Rob Berkley
Thank you.
Rob Berkley
谢谢。
Operator
主持人
We'll take the next question from Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.
接下来我们将提问来自Truist Securities的Mark Hughes。
Mark Hughes
Yeah, thank you. Good afternoon.
是的，谢谢。下午好。
Rob Berkley
Hi, Mark. Good afternoon.
嗨，Mark。下午好。
Mark Hughes
Rob, any comments on the mix between E&S and admitted? There's still strong movement into E&S. How do you see that now?
Rob，请问关于E&S与持牌业务之间的组合你有什么看法？目前E&S领域依然有强劲的增长，你现在怎么看待这种情况？
Rob Berkley
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Mark. And maybe if you don't mind taking half a step back. The submission flow coming into the E&S marketplace continues to be robust. We'll have to see again what the impact of the California fires is, but we're probably seeing a little less momentum on the property side and more momentum on the casualty side as far as the submission flow regarding E&S. I would tell you there are pockets of professionals that have become a little bit more competitive on the E&S front. But that having been said, overall our E&S business is growing considerably faster than our admitted business today.
是的，谢谢你的提问，Mark。如果你允许我稍微后退一步说明，目前流入E&S市场的业务提交依然非常活跃。我们还需要再次观察加州火灾的影响，但就E&S的业务提交而言，财产险方面的势头可能略有减弱，而责任险方面则更为强劲。我可以告诉你，在E&S领域，有一些专业细分市场的竞争变得更激烈。但总体来看，我们的E&S业务增长速度明显快于持牌业务。
Mark Hughes
And then, you expressed a lot of confidence that the underwriting profitability wouldn't be deteriorating or would be likely improving and definitely not a deteriorating. Pricing is still up nicely. What should we think about the inflation and loss costs? Are you seeing a step down in loss inflation? I know you've talked about the social inflation in those drivers, but seems like you have a little more optimism about the spread on a go-forward basis.
接下来，你表达了对承保盈利能力不会恶化甚至可能改善的充分信心，而且定价依然表现良好。我们应该如何看待通胀和损失成本？你是否看到损失通胀有所下降？我知道你曾谈到社会通胀这些因素，但看起来你对未来利差更为乐观。
Rob Berkley
I think we've been getting a lot of rate for a long time at this stage. In addition to that, I think we have grown visibility and confidence in the underwriting actions that have already been taken and continue to be applied. And when you put all of that together, I think we are cautiously optimistic as to what that likely bodes for the results over time. I think the reality is when we look at our mix of business and we look at the rate that we have achieved and that we continue to achieve and if you look at the aggregate, 7.7% or so, and we look at how we think about trend at a pretty granular level, we think we're in a good place. So, again, none of us know for sure, particularly with some of the longer tail lines other than through the passage of time, but there's some encouraging data that we're seeing.
我认为目前我们已经获得了较高的费率。此外，我们对已经采取并持续执行的承保措施的透明度和信心也在不断提升。综合来看，我对未来业绩持谨慎乐观态度。实际上，当我们审视我们的业务组合以及我们已经实现并持续实现的费率，总体大约在7.7%左右，再从细致趋势分析来看，我们认为情况不错。所以，再次强调，尤其对于一些长尾险种，除非时间能给出答案，否则没人能完全确定，但我们确实看到了鼓舞人心的数据。
Mark Hughes
Thank you.
谢谢。
Rob Berkley
Thanks for the question. Have a good night.
谢谢你的提问。祝你晚安。
Operator
主持人
From BMO Capital Markets, next up is Mike Zaremski.
来自BMO Capital Markets，接下来是Mike Zaremski。
Rob Berkley
Hi, Mike. Good evening.
嗨，Mike。晚上好。
Mike Zaremski
Hey, good evening. First question. Coming back to -- I'm going to assume, we don't know the -- you don't have the answer to the reserve changes this quarter, but based on kind of the year-to-date nine months, it looks like workers' comp was definitely a big good guy in terms of reserve releases. So, I'm just trying to kind of curious one of the tougher questions we get is you know, why is Rob bearish on kind of workers' comp if profits are so good and still continues to release a lot of reserves. So, just kind of curious if your views on comp are improving potentially or just kind of talking through the dynamics there.
嘿，晚上好。第一个问题。回到这个话题——我想假设你们还没有公布本季度准备金变化的答案，但根据今年迄今九个月的数据来看，工伤赔偿在准备金释放方面无疑表现良好。所以，我想问一个较难的问题，就是：如果利润这么好、同时还持续释放大量准备金，为何Rob对工伤赔偿持看跌态度？也就是说，你对工伤赔偿的看法是否有望改善，或者请你谈谈其内在动态。
Rob Berkley
I think that when it comes to workers' compensation, I mis-assessed frequency trend and how remarkably negative it has remained for an extended period of time. In addition to that, I probably did not give enough credit to wage inflation and what that has meant for pricing and, by extension, margin. On the other hand, I continue to be concerned about medical cost and medical trend, and it is hard for me to imagine that the workers' comp market will be insulated from that reality indefinitely. So, at this stage, as you would have noticed in the quarter, we grew a little bit in comp even though our rate was ever so modestly negative, but we are finding opportunities to grow in comp, but it tends to be very specialized. We are not growing what I would describe as a main street comp. We are growing in specialized comp as far as the exposure goes.
我认为，关于工伤赔偿，我低估了索赔频率趋势，以及其长期持续保持在相当低水平的程度。此外，我可能也没有充分考虑到工资通胀及其对定价及利润率的影响。另一方面，我依然对医疗费用和医疗趋势感到担忧，我很难想象工伤赔偿市场能够永远免受这些因素的影响。因此，在当前阶段，正如你在本季度观察到的，尽管我们的费率略显负面，但我们的工伤赔偿业务仍有小幅增长，并且我们正在寻找增长机会，不过这种增长往往非常专业化。我们增长的并非是我所描述的主流工伤赔偿业务，而是专注于特定风险领域的专业工伤赔偿业务。
Mike Zaremski
Got it. And just switching gears, if we reflect on the past year or whatever amount of time you would like to reflect on, is it fair to assume that given you're growing faster in E&S than in commercial that that's having kind of a positive impact on the overall company's combined ratio, or is that not a fair assessment?
明白了。换个话题，如果我们回顾过去一年，或者你愿意回顾的任何一段时间，是否可以合理地假设，由于你们在E&S业务上的增长速度快于商业险，这对公司整体的综合成本率产生了积极影响？还是说这种假设不成立？
Rob Berkley
Well, I hope every place we're growing is going to have a positive impact on the combined ratio. I understand your point is E&S is higher margin, and in some cases that is the case, but that's not always the case. But maybe specifically to your point, I think that our loss ratios are in a very good place. Do I think it's possible through the passage of time that they will improve? Yes, I do believe that that is a possibility. Are we going to sort of get ahead of ourselves? No, we are not.
嗯，我希望我们增长的每一个领域都能对综合成本率产生积极影响。我理解你的意思是E&S业务毛利率较高，在某些情况下确实如此，但并非总是如此。就你提的具体问题，我认为我们的损失率处于非常良好的水平。我认为随着时间的推移，损失率有可能进一步改善，我确实相信这是可能的。但我们不会自我膨胀，超前乐观。
Mike, I don't know if we had the conversation, but certainly Rich and I have chatted with others about it. It was -- that 16 through 19 year and that stark reminder of the mismatch between when you write your business and when you'd really know your cost of goods sold, that was a very sobering experience for us. And as a result of that, we're just not going to get ahead of ourselves. Quite frankly, at this stage, the business is generating without any strain 20%-plus returns.
至于Mike，我不知道我们之前是否讨论过，但我和Rich确实与其他人聊过这个问题。那种在16至19年的时期里，你承保业务与真正了解销售成本之间的不匹配，给了我们一个非常深刻的教训。正因如此，我们不会过早乐观。坦白说，在当前阶段，我们的业务无压力地实现了超过20%的回报。
So, there's really no incentive in my opinion to do anything other than make sure we are thoughtful and measured and continue to have a healthy respect for that reality of not knowing your cost of goods sold until some number of years after we made the sale. So, yeah, when I -- when we look back on it in the future, I think things are going to look possibly better than they do today, but we're not going to get ahead of ourselves.
因此，在我看来，除了确保我们做事周全、稳健外，并继续保持对这种“直到销售后数年才知道销售成本”现实的敬畏之外，没有任何动机去采取其他行动。所以，当我们未来回顾这一切时，我认为情况可能会比今天更好，但我们不会过早自负。
长尾业务的缺陷。
Mike Zaremski
Got it. And just lastly, sticking on the E&S marketplace, loud and clear about growth -- your growth outlook kind of direction remains the same as last quarter. But specifically in the E&S marketplace, given how, I guess, good returns are for most companies, because we're hearing some companies talk about some pricing deceleration in the E&S casualty marketplace. Are you seeing that at all? Thanks.
明白了。最后，关于E&S市场，毫无疑问你们对增长持乐观态度——你们的增长预期与上季度基本一致。但就E&S市场而言，鉴于大多数公司都有良好回报，因为我们听到一些公司提到E&S责任险市场定价出现放缓的迹象。你有看到这种现象吗？谢谢。
Rob Berkley
I don't see that in the E&S casualty space. I can imagine that potentially happening in the property space, let's -- putting aside whatever the California impact is, but I don't see that happening in the casualty space. And quite frankly, I think if anything, that pricing environment is more likely than not to remain quite resilient when it comes to casualty. We'll have to see professionally perhaps as a different animal, but if we're talking about E&S casualty, then I think that that is quite strong and there's nothing that leads me to believe that you're going to see that momentum erode. Again, property a little bit different.
我在E&S责任险领域没有看到这种现象。我可以想象在财产险领域这种情况可能会出现，撇开加州影响不谈，但在责任险领域我没有看到这种情况。坦白说，我认为在责任险领域，这种定价环境很可能会保持相当稳健。也许在专业层面上会有些不同，但如果我们谈论的是E&S责任险，我认为它相当强劲，没有任何迹象显示这种势头会减弱。财产险方面则稍有不同。
And if you unpack a lot of the growth that the E&S market has seen over the past several years, it is weighted towards property. So, as I think we've all talked about, property tends to respond quickly and very severely, but it tends to be shorter lived as opposed to casualty tends to be slower, but oftentimes has more staying power as far as market conditions.
而且，如果你细看过去几年E&S市场的增长，大部分都集中在财产险上。正如我们所讨论的，财产险通常反应迅速且幅度较大，但持续时间较短；而责任险则增速较慢，但往往在市场环境中更具持久性。
Mike Zaremski
Thank you, Rob.
谢谢你，Rob。
Rob Berkley
Thanks for the question.
谢谢你的提问。
Operator
主持人
We'll go next to Katie Sakys, Autonomous Research.
接下来我们将转到 Autonomous Research 的 Katie Sakys。
Katie Sakys
Yeah, thank you. Good evening. My first question is on the Reinsurance & Monoline Excess loss ratio. I mean, it was an exceptional result this quarter on an underlying basis. I know for the Insurance segment, you guys caution not to read too much into the uptick in the underwriting ratio there. Perhaps you can offer us some color on the result in the reinsurance segment and really what you're thinking on the margins there as you look into 2025?
是的，谢谢。晚上好。我的第一个问题是关于再保险及单一超额险的损失率。我是说，本季度在基本面上取得了异常出色的成绩。我知道对于保险业务板块，你们提醒不要过度解读承保比率的上升。也许你能为我们提供一些关于再保险板块结果的详细说明，以及你们对2025年边际利润的看法。
Rob Berkley
So, maybe going back to a couple of the comments earlier, obviously, we have reservations around some of the casualty lines and for that matter some of the professional within the reinsurance market, excuse me. In addition to that, on the other hand, we have the property market, we believe, is clearly under pressure. You could see that clear as day at 1/1, but we think that there continues to be margin in the business and for the moment, it's adequately priced.
那么，回到之前的一些评论，显然我们对部分责任险业务以及再保险市场中一些专业业务持保留态度。另外，在财产险方面，我们认为市场明显承压。这一点在1/1的数据中一目了然，但我们认为该业务仍有利润空间，目前定价是合理的。
Rob Berkley
So, we are going to continue to ride that property horse as long as we can until we reach a conclusion that it no longer makes sense, and then you will see us go from an offensive posture to a defensive posture. As far as the casualty goes, I think we already covered that. That action on the reinsurance front was, again, demonstrated by us shrinking the book by more than 15% in the quarter. And again, I think that it's just a reflection of our view that we're capital managers. We're in business to make money. If we don't think it's a good risk-adjusted return, we're happy to let it go.
因此，我们将继续坚持这条财产险业务，直至我们认为不再合理为止，届时你们将看到我们从进攻姿态转为防守姿态。至于责任险部分，我认为我们已经讨论过了。我们在再保险方面的这一举措，再次通过本季度削减业务量超过15%得以体现。同样，我认为这正反映了我们的观点：我们是资本管理者，我们的目标是盈利。如果我们认为某项业务的风险调整回报不足，我们便毫不犹豫地放弃。
Katie Sakys
Got it. Okay. And then, circling back to your commentary, Rob, on the workers' comp growth this quarter, you've mentioned there were particular niches of workers' comp where you guys were seeing some opportunities for growth. Are those pockets of growth sustainable? And can we expect to continue to see some modest growth out of that line over the next couple of quarters, or are these niches that kind of pop up and come and go?
明白了。好的。接着，回到你关于本季度工伤赔偿增长的评论，Rob，你提到在工伤赔偿领域存在一些特定细分市场，那里你们看到了增长机会。这些增长点是否可持续？我们是否可以预期在接下来的几个季度中，该业务线会持续实现适度增长，还是这些细分市场只是时有时无、偶尔出现的情况？
Rob Berkley
So obviously, again, nobody knows for sure what tomorrow will bring, but the couple of monoline businesses that participate in the specialty comp space, the momentum that they're enjoying today, we do not see that going away tomorrow. So, certainly, we think there will likely continue to be some opportunity throughout '25.
显然，再次强调，没人能确切预知明天会发生什么，但那些参与专业工伤赔偿业务的单一险种企业，目前享有的增长势头，我们认为不会在明天消失。所以，我们确信在2025年期间，仍然会有一些机会存在。
Katie Sakys
Okay. And then, if I may sneak in one more? Do you guys have any updates on your 2025 reinsurance program and how your catastrophe loss budget for this year might compare to 2024?
好的。如果我还能再问一个问题，你们是否有关于2025年再保险计划的最新情况，以及今年的巨灾损失预算与2024年相比如何的信息？
Rob Berkley
I would suggest -- I don't have it at my fingertips. I don't think Rich does, but you certainly if you give Karen a call, she can get into it in some detail or at least as much detail as we're allowed to. But I would remind you of the comment that we shared earlier around our property cat reinsurance risk-adjusted was down 15%-ish or so, and a similar reduction in risk-adjusted rate on the retro.
我的建议是——目前我手头没有这方面的详细数据，我想Rich也没有，但如果你联系Karen，她可以提供较为详细的信息，至少在我们允许透露的范围内。不过，我想提醒你，我们之前提到过，我们在财产巨灾再保险方面经过风险调整的费率大约下降了15%左右，而复转分保部分的风险调整费率也有类似的下降。
Katie Sakys
Got it. Thank you.
明白了，谢谢。
Rob Berkley
Thanks for the questions. Have a good night.
谢谢你们的提问。祝大家晚安.
Operator
主持人
Next up is Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.
接下来是 Morgan Stanley 的 Bob Huang。
Rob Berkley
Hi, Bob. Good evening.
嗨，Bob，晚上好。
Bob Huang
Good evening. So, quick question on -- like I'm curious your view on social inflation really. So, it does feel like plaintiff bar is more active in the Northeast and West Coast, in fact, something that California's Commissioner also touched on when it comes to L.A. Wildfire. Are there any particular geography in the US where you feel it could be represented like a higher risk area for social inflation? Like, is there a way to think about the Northeast, West Coast, Midwest, curious your way to think about it, is it shifting away from Florida and Georgia?
晚上好。那么，简单提个问题——我很好奇您对社会通胀的看法。感觉原告律师团体在美国东北部和西海岸更为活跃，实际上，加州专员在谈及洛杉矶野火时也提到了这一点。您认为美国有哪些特定区域可能构成较高的社会通胀风险？比如，我们是否可以从地理角度考虑——东北部、西海岸、中西部等区域，这种风险是否正从佛罗里达和乔治亚转移？
Rob Berkley
So, I mean, I would tell you that there are certain territories or states or really counties that are part of the country that are obviously more challenging than others. I think the difficulty is not the states that have historically been very challenging, but it's the ones that are changing very quickly. And from a legal environment perspective, we have some states that are very red and have always been red. We have some states that perhaps are more blue and they've always been blue. And now what's becoming more challenging is some states that were one color changing to a different color or some states, for example, that were perhaps once red and now they're more purple.
我的意思是，我想告诉你，国内确实有些区域、州甚至县显然比其他地方更具挑战性。我认为难点不在于那些历来就充满挑战的州，而在于那些变化非常迅速的地方。从法律环境的角度来看，有些州一直非常保守（红州），有些州则一直较为开放（蓝州）。而现在，问题在于那些原本属于一种颜色的州正在转变成另一种颜色，例如，曾经是红色的州现在变得更接近紫色。
Rob Berkley
I would tell you an example of a state that has shifted dramatically would be one that you just mentioned, the state of Georgia, where once upon a time, that was an easier place to do business, but it has become ever more aggressive as far as the plaintiff bar goes. Another state that once upon a time was defendant-friendly or more defendant-friendly would be Texas. And there are counties in Texas that I'm not quite sure they've become Cook County, but they are definitely trending in that direction.
举个例子，您刚才提到的乔治亚州曾经是一个相对容易做生意的地方，但在原告律师群体方面它变得越来越激进。另一个曾经对被告较为友好的州是德克萨斯州，德州的一些县虽然我不确定是否已经像芝加哥的 Cook County 那样，但它们无疑正朝这个方向发展。
Rob Berkley
So, I think you raised a really important point. It's one that we internally spend a lot of time thinking about because this rate alone is a very blunt instrument and -- so are terms and conditions. My colleagues, to their credit, are obviously using the rate tool and the term and condition tool, but they are also, at a very granular level, down to county thinking about exposure based on legal environment. I think that has become and will become increasingly more and more something that this industry is going to have to grapple with.
所以，我认为您提出了一个非常重要的问题。我们内部花了很多时间思考这个问题，因为仅仅依赖费率这一指标是非常粗糙的，条款和条件也是如此。值得称赞的是，我的同事们不仅在使用费率工具和条款工具，而且在非常细致的层面上，甚至到县级，考虑基于法律环境的风险敞口。我认为这一问题已经并将越来越成为整个行业必须面对的挑战。
有细节的描述。
Bob Huang
Got it. Okay. I guess my follow-up is just so that like I'm clear, then in that case, is it fair to say that some of the commercial casualty lines could potentially behave more similar to personal line in the sense where geography and region is more important than the business mix? Like, is that a fair statement down the road? Just curious as to if that is the direction of...
明白了。好的，我的后续问题是，为了让我更清楚地了解，那么是否可以说，部分商业责任险可能在表现上更类似于个人险，即地理区域和地区因素比业务组合更为重要？这样的说法未来是否成立？我只是好奇这是否是未来的发展方向……
Rob Berkley
So, I assume that you're leaning in the direction of [nat cat] (ph), if you will, and what that means for exposure. You're extrapolating from that as far as legal environment by territory and what that means for exposure?
所以，我猜你是指向[nat cat]（音译）的方向，意味着什么对风险敞口的影响。您是否在依据各地区的法律环境来推断风险敞口？
Bob Huang
Yeah. Just to see if that makes sense on your side.
是的。只是想确认这对你们来说是否有意义。
Rob Berkley
So, the answer is to us, while it's a bit of a generalization directionally, not only do we share your view, we are applying that to how the business operates.
所以，对我们来说，虽然这在方向上有些概括，但我们不仅认同您的看法，而且正将其应用于业务运作中。
Bob Huang
Okay. Got it. Really appreciate it. Thank you.
好的，明白了。非常感谢。谢谢。
Rob Berkley
Thanks for the questions.
谢谢大家的提问。
Operator
主持人
And we'll go next to David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.
接下来我们将由 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden 发言。
David Motemaden
Hey, good evening.
嗨，晚上好。
Rob Berkley
David, good evening.
David，晚上好。
David Motemaden
So, Rob, you spoke a little bit about some of the competitiveness in the casualty reinsurance market, and commend you guys for stepping back a little bit from that market. I guess, has that made you reevaluate at all your outward program? One of your peers purchased a little bit more coverage. Has that entered your thought process at all here as we -- or did that enter your thought process at all at the 1/1 renewal?
Rob，您之前谈到过责任险再保险市场的竞争情况，并且称赞你们在该市场中有所后撤。那么，这是否促使你们重新评估外部业务计划？有位同行购买了更多的覆盖范围，这是否已经进入了你们的考虑，或者在1月1日续约时是否曾考虑过？
Rob Berkley
So, we're conscious of cost of capital, both the capital that we effectively own and the capital that we effectively rent, i.e., reinsurance. We also are conscious of the fact that there are some reinsurance relationships that are true partnerships, and there are other reinsurance relationships that are truly transactional. Those that are partnerships are ones that tend to endure time.
我们非常关注资本成本，无论是我们实际拥有的资本，还是我们实际上“租用”的资本（即再保险）。我们也清楚，部分再保险关系是真正的合作伙伴关系，而另一些则纯粹是交易性关系。那些合作伙伴关系往往能经受时间考验。
From our perspective, our colleagues are very skilled in understanding where the marketplace is, and I think are attentive to making sure that we are doing what is in the best interest of our shareholders and simultaneously treating those that are truly our partners with the care and respect that they deserve. So, when the day is all done, we're conscious of where the market is and we're going to do what we think makes sense for this organization, its shareholders, and our long-term partners.
在我们看来，我们的同事非常擅长把握市场动态，并且非常注重确保我们的举措符合股东的最大利益，同时对待那些真正的合作伙伴时给予应有的关怀与尊重。所以，总的来说，我们清楚市场的现状，并将采取对本组织、其股东以及我们的长期合作伙伴都合理的行动。
David Motemaden
Got it. That's helpful. And then, it was good to see the commercial auto growth tick up a little bit as well as the other liability growth in the quarter. I guess, are rates in those lines, are they at levels that are, I guess, good enough for you guys to continue to lean in as we head into 2025?
明白了，这很有帮助。另外，本季度看到商用车险以及其他责任险的增长略有上升也令人欣慰。那么，这些业务线的费率水平是否足够高，使你们能够继续加码，迎接2025年的到来？
Rob Berkley
Obviously, we were satisfied with the available rate. Otherwise, we wouldn't have written the business, i.e., as you saw what we did in the reinsurance space. Today, given the rates that we were able to achieve, we're happy with it. I don't know what the rating environment will be for the balance of the year, but from my perspective, the loss activity that the marketplace is facing and some of our competitors have finally come into grips with reality is creating an opportunity for those of us that have been already grappling with that reality to move forward more quickly.
显然，我们对现有的费率水平感到满意，否则我们不会承保这些业务，就像你看到我们在再保险领域所做的一样。如今，鉴于我们所能达到的费率，我们对此感到满意。我不清楚今年剩余时间内评级环境会如何变化，但在我看来，市场所面临的损失活动，以及部分竞争对手最终开始正视现实，这为那些已经在应对这一现实的我们创造了更快前进的机会。
David Motemaden
Got it. That's helpful. And then, I know you guys didn't give the reserve development by segment. So, I'll follow-up with Karen. I guess, I'm just wondering...
明白了，这很有帮助。另外，我知道你们没有按业务板块给出准备金发展情况，所以我会事后向Karen跟进。我只是想问问……
Rob Berkley
It's like the one piece of paper I left in my office and it's a long haul and I got short legs. So, give Karen a call.
这就像我办公室里留的一张纸一样，这是一段漫长的路程，而我腿短。所以，请联系Karen。
David Motemaden
Yeah, we'll do. I guess, there's obviously a lot more focus on the more recent accident years. I'm sure you guys are also laser-focused on that as well and we can see it in the pics. Any sort of incremental color that you can provide on that would be helpful.
是的，我们会的。我想，显然大家对近期事故年度更加关注。我相信你们也对此保持高度专注，我们也能从图表中看出这一点。能否再提供一些细节信息，那将非常有帮助。
Rob Berkley
I mean, nothing really beyond what we talked about. I think we continue to be very -- as we've mentioned even earlier in this call, we're very focused on auto liability. We're very focused on other product lines where there's the potential for injury to individual that seems to turbocharge social inflation. So, I think one needs to do it. Is social inflation impacting most liability lines or cash? Yes, the answer is, but it does not apply equally to all product lines. We are concerned about med mal. We are concerned about auto liability. We're even concerned about other types of coverage where you could have an individual or a group of people physically hurt. That seems to be where a jury will take someone to the woodshed. And we are doing what we need to do on that front as covered earlier from a rate perspective, from a selection perspective, from a terms and conditions perspective. And part of selection as discussed with our colleague a few moments ago is territory, jurisdiction, whatever, county.
我的意思是，实际上并没有超出我们之前讨论的内容。我认为我们仍然非常专注——正如我们在本次电话早些时候提到的，我们非常关注汽车责任险；同时也关注其他可能导致个体受伤，从而推动社会通胀的产品线。那么，是否所有责任险都受到社会通胀影响？答案是肯定的，但并非对所有产品线影响均等。我们对医疗事故赔偿感到担忧，对汽车责任险也感到担忧，甚至对其他可能导致个体或群体身体伤害的保险类型也持关注态度。似乎在这种情况下，陪审团会大幅提高赔偿金额。而我们在这方面已从费率、选择及条款条件的角度采取必要措施，部分选择标准，如之前与同事讨论的，还包括区域、司法管辖区、甚至县级因素。
David Motemaden
Yeah, understood. Thanks for that color. I appreciate it.
明白了，谢谢你提供这些细节信息。我很感激。
Rob Berkley
Thank you. Have a good night.
谢谢。祝你晚安.
Operator
主持人
Our next question is from Meyer Shields, KBW.
我们接下来的问题来自KBW的Meyer Shields。
Rob Berkley
Hi, Meyer. Good afternoon or evening rather.
嗨，Meyer。下午好，或者更确切地说，晚上好。
Meyer Shields
Hi, Rob. How are you?
嗨，Rob。你好吗？
Rob Berkley
Good. How are you?
很好。你呢？
Meyer Shields
I guess -- doing okay. Thanks. So, we spent some time talking about, like, these examples where bodily injury to individuals is exacerbating social inflation. How -- is the loss trend in those situations, is that getting worse, or is it just something that you're talking about now that you've been seeing internally for longer?
我想——还不错，谢谢。所以，我们花了一些时间讨论了这样一些例子：个体人身伤害使得社会通胀加剧。在这种情况下，损失趋势是否在恶化，还是说这只是你们内部长期观察到的现象？
Rob Berkley
I think that it is just very apparent that that trend is a bit steeper, and that's not something new. It just has been, and I couldn't figure out what the heck to talk about today. So, I figured I should talk -- mention that.
我认为，很明显这种趋势更为陡峭，这并非新鲜事。一直以来都是如此，我今天实在不知道该谈些什么，所以觉得应该提及这一点。
Meyer Shields
Fair enough. Okay. When you talk about, I guess, the various court jurisdictions, so the one that stands out as a concern is older ones getting -- I'm sorry, better ones historically getting worse. How should we think about that in the context of longer tail -- or medium tail lines reserves?
说得好。好的。当你谈到各个法院管辖区时，我认为令人担忧的是那些历史上表现较好的管辖区反而变得更糟。在长尾或中尾险种准备金的背景下，我们该如何看待这种情况？
Rob Berkley
I think for people who haven't been paying attention, it's likely for them to have some catch up to do. I think for people who have been paying -- I mean, what I was describing as far as Georgia, Texas, whatever, as just placeholders, this isn't like something that just happened last quarter. This has been a groundswell that has been percolating and we just happen to be talking about it tonight. But we've been talking about this internally for not what would be measured in quarters, what would be measured in years. So, the response to those realities, those are already well in place.
我认为，对于那些没怎么关注的人来说，他们可能需要赶上来。我指的是我提到的，比如乔治亚、德州等，这些只是占位符，并不是上个季度刚刚发生的事。这是一股逐渐酝酿的趋势，我们今晚正好在讨论，但我们内部讨论这个问题的时间不是以季度计，而是以年计。所以，对这些现实的应对措施已经到位。
Meyer Shields
Okay, understood. Then, final quick question. You talked about a mix change impacting the ex-cat accident year loss ratio in the Insurance segment. How is it impacting the expense ratio, that mix change?
好的，明白了。那么，最后一个简短问题。你提到业务组合变化影响了保险板块除巨灾外事故年度的损失率。那这种组合变化对费用率有什么影响？
Rich Baio
I don't think it's having much of an impact on the expense ratio. What's really driving the movement, and as you saw, I think period-over-period, it only moved 0.10%. So, it's fairly small. So, I would say as it relates to the acquisition costs, we're not seeing huge changes, other than perhaps where there might be a change in the reinsurance structure that we have from one year to another year where we might have gone from a quota share to an excess of loss or vice versa. So, there would obviously be some differences in terms of where that runs through in the income statement.
我认为这对费用率的影响不大。实际上推动这种变化的因素，如你所见，按期间比较，仅变动了0.10%，非常微小。因此，就获取成本而言，我们没有看到大幅变化，除非出现再保险结构从一年到另一年发生变化，比如从比例再保险转为超额损失再保险或反之，这样在利润表中自然会有些差异。
Meyer Shields
Okay. Fantastic. Thanks so much.
好的。非常好，非常感谢。
Operator
Next up is Brian Meredith, UBS.
主持人
接下来是来自UBS的Brian Meredith。
Rob Berkley
Hi, Brian. Good evening.
Rob Berkley
嗨，Brian。晚上好。
Brian Meredith
Yeah, thanks. Hey, how are you doing? A couple of questions here for you, Rob. The first one, little big picture. So, a number of the standard commercial carriers have talked about and granted still small, growing in the E&S market, right, having E&S operations and they're growing there, I'm just curious kind of what your thoughts are there? Is that at all impeding on some of maybe your opportunities in the marketplace? Are you seeing that?
Brian Meredith
是的，谢谢。嗨，你好吗？我有几个问题要问你，Rob。第一个问题，从大局来看。许多传统商业承保公司都谈到并且仍在E&S市场中有所增长，对吧，他们有E&S业务并且在此领域增长，我只是好奇你对此有何看法？这是否会在某种程度上阻碍你们在市场上的一些机会？你有看到这种情况吗？
Rob Berkley
In the interest of time, I'm going to be direct, but I don't mean to be a bit disrespectful. We don't see them.
Rob Berkley
为了节省时间，我就直截了当地回答，但并非不尊重。我们没有看到这种情况。
Brian Meredith
Good. That's helpful. And then, I guess the other one I'm curious about is maybe you can kind of flush out a little bit what's going on with Berkley One. I know that's been a good operation, growing kind of expectations here for 2025, homeowners insurance still a pretty hard market. Maybe give us some view on opportunity there?
Brian Meredith
好的，很有帮助。然后，我还有另一个问题，我很好奇能否详细说明一下Berkley One的情况。我知道那边运营情况不错，并为2025年树立了一定的增长预期，而房主保险市场依然相当严峻。能否给我们一些关于那里的机会的看法？
Rob Berkley
So, look, I think the opportunity that existed yesterday, that exists today will be just as strong tomorrow. I think we have truly an exceptional team of people that are very skilled when it comes to managing the shareholders' capital. I think they have done truly a fantastic job in building a franchise that is not just accretive to their operation, but is truly accretive economically and brand wise to the group overall. And I think that their contribution to the profitability of the group in the 2025 year will be considerable.
Rob Berkley
所以，看，我认为昨天存在的机会，今天依然存在，明天也会同样强劲。我相信我们拥有一支非常出色的团队，他们在管理股东资本方面技能非凡。我认为他们在建立一个不仅对自身业务有正向增值作用，而且在经济和品牌层面对整个集团都有实质性增值作用的品牌时，做得非常出色。我相信他们对集团在2025年的盈利贡献将是相当可观的。
Brian Meredith
Great. Thank you.
Brian Meredith
太好了，谢谢。
Rob Berkley
Thanks, Brian. Have a good evening.
Rob Berkley
谢谢你，Brian。祝你晚上好。
Operator
And the next question is Josh Shanker, Bank of America.
主持人
接下来的问题来自 Bank of America 的 Josh Shanker.
Rob Berkley
Hi, Josh. Good evening.
Rob Berkley
嗨，Josh。晚上好。
Josh Shanker
Yeah, thank you very much. Hi there, everybody. I just want to maybe ask a little more specific question on Brian's Berkley One. Obviously, you don't write homeowners in California. There's certain things about that market that are unattractive [Technical Difficulty].
Josh Shanker
非常感谢。大家好。我想就 Brian 的 Berkley One 再具体问一个问题。显然，你们不在加州承保房主保险。该市场有一些因素使其不具吸引力【技术性问题】。
能力的证明。
Rob Berkley
Josh, a, thanks for the question. And b, I think the Berkley One team, at this stage when it comes to homeowners, they're very focused on the opportunities in the markets that they're in. Will they add other markets over time? Yes. Is California in the [on-deck] (ph) circle? I think that there is a healthy recognition and appreciation and respect for the challenges that exist in that market on multiple levels. And consequently, I think the team has appropriately made the decision that this is not a distraction or that we would like to have today, not an area of focus for the foreseeable. And so, certainly for the people of California and that insurance market and those that participate there and other stakeholders, we wish them nothing but the best. But at this moment in time, we are very focused on other opportunities that are before us.
Rob Berkley
Josh，首先，感谢你的提问。其次，我认为在房主保险方面，Berkley One 团队目前非常专注于他们所在市场的机遇。他们会随着时间的推移拓展其他市场吗？答案是会。那么，加州是否在他们的目标范围内？我认为他们对该市场在多个层面上存在的挑战有着充分的认识、赞赏和尊重。因此，我认为团队已做出适当决定，将其视为当前不予关注的干扰因素，而非重点领域。因此，对于加州的民众、该保险市场以及参与者和其他利益相关者，我们衷心祝愿一切顺利。但目前，我们正非常专注于眼前的其他机遇。
Josh Shanker
And I want to switch to an investment question. Over the long term, Berkley shareholders have been rewarded very well through some of the alternative investments that the Berkley has made over many years. It's not been really the case in 2024 in a year which has enjoyed very significant market appreciation for public equities. Can you talk a little bit about what you see for '25? Is the positioning of the portfolio potentially improved? Obviously, not going to make foolish investments overall, but what's been preventing Berkley from realizing the potential of that part of its strategy and what can we see in the future?
Josh Shanker
接下来我想转到投资问题。长期来看，多年来 Berkley 的一些另类投资为股东带来了丰厚回报。但在2024年——一个公共股市显著升值的年份——情况并非如此。你能谈谈你对2025年的展望吗？目前投资组合的定位是否有所改善？显然，我们不会进行愚蠢的投资，但是什么阻碍了 Berkley 实现其这一战略潜力？未来又能看到什么？
Rob Berkley
So, Josh, maybe a couple of quick comments. First off, as far as alternatives, Rich had flagged what we saw coming through in a couple of our investments, particularly in the unrealized associated with public securities. So, I think it was about $150 million, $160 million unrealized, which was I think pretty healthy for a 90-day period. Putting that aside as far as other areas of the alternative investment portfolio, I would suggest that one not leap to a conclusion. Obviously, oftentimes there is value that exists that may not necessarily be as visible.
Rob Berkley
Josh，我先简单说明几点。首先，关于另类投资，Rich 曾提到我们在几项投资中观察到的，尤其是与公开证券相关的未实现收益，大约在1.5亿到1.6亿美元左右，对于一个90天期来说，这一数字相当健康。抛开另类投资组合的其他领域不谈，我建议不要急于下结论。显然，往往存在一些不那么明显但依然有价值的东西。
So, I understand your point about the '24 year. Again, no different than the underwriting or the investing on the public securities. Our focus is long-term risk-adjusted return. And sometimes in the alternative portfolio, that could be a little bit lumpy, but the focus on total return is not something that is lost on us today just like it wasn't lost on us tomorrow.
我明白你对2024年的看法。与公开证券的承保和投资情况无异，我们的重点是长期风险调整回报。有时在另类投资组合中，这可能会有些波动，但我们对总回报的关注始终未曾改变，就像今天如此，明天也一样。
But before we go any further on to any other questions or discussion you'd like to have, Josh, maybe I can turn it over to my boss here who takes a particular interest in the alternative investment portfolio.
在继续回答其他问题之前，Josh，我先把话筒交给我对另类投资组合特别感兴趣的上司。
Bill Berkley
Good evening, Josh. I think that our portfolio as a whole, especially our public company portfolio, had a very good year. I think that the performance for the year was adversely impacted primarily by one private equity fund that did not do well. It was a surprise to us on a couple of things. And it had a consequential adverse impact. We think that's behind us. But I think honestly, some of that private equity investing will be reduced as the available returns in more liquid markets are such that the advantage of private equity is somewhat diminished. That doesn't mean we won't take advantage of things when they come up, but our bogey is a little higher with a little less risk. So, it was no doubt a bump in the road, that can always happen, but I wouldn't expect it to be a problem going forward.
Bill Berkley
晚上好，Josh。我认为我们整个投资组合，尤其是我们公开上市公司的投资组合，今年表现非常好。总体业绩主要受到一个表现不佳的私募股权基金的负面影响。这在某些方面让我们感到意外，并造成了相应的不利影响。我们认为那已经过去了。但老实说，由于流动性更好的市场中可获得的回报较高，私募股权的优势在某种程度上减弱，因此部分私募股权投资将会减少。这并不意味着我们不会在机会出现时利用它，但我们的门槛将会提高，同时风险也会降低。所以，这无疑是前进道路上的一个小挫折，虽然常有发生，但我不认为这将来会成为问题。
Rob Berkley
Josh, is there another question?
Rob Berkley
Josh，还有其他问题吗？
Josh Shanker
I will cede the evening to you gentlemen. Thank you very much.
Josh Shanker
今晚我把时间交给你们各位。非常感谢。
Rob Berkley
Thanks, Josh. Have a good evening. Lisa, any other...
Rob Berkley
谢谢你，Josh。祝你晚上好。Lisa，还有其他……
Operator
主持人
We do have one further question. It's Yaron Kinar from Jefferies.
我们还有一个问题，提问者是来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar.
Rob Berkley
Okay. Good evening.
好的。晚上好。
Unidentified Analyst
不具名分析师
Hey, good afternoon. This is Andrew on for Yaron. I was just hoping within insurance and short tail lines, some pretty good growth this year and particularly in the quarter. Can you help us just think about the drivers there? Was it property, inland marine, A&H?
嗨，下午好。我是 Andrew，代替 Yaron 发言。我只是想了解一下，在保险及短尾险种中，今年，尤其是在本季度，业务增长表现不错。您能否帮我们分析一下其中的驱动因素？是财产险、内陆海运险，还是意外与健康险？
Rob Berkley
Yes, yes and yes.
是，是，也是。
Unidentified Analyst
不具名分析师
Okay. So, kind of all three is contributing.
好的。所以，这三项都在起作用。
Rob Berkley
Mainland property and inland marine, though it's not as big a play for us as property, but yes, mainland property.
主要是大陆财产险和内陆海运险，虽然对于我们来说财产险的比重更大，但确实是大陆财产险。
Unidentified Analyst
不具名分析师
Thank you. And then, just on the 50-basis-points impact to current year picks, I know you mentioned it was business mix, but I would think with the growth in property that would be beneficial to the underlying. So, was perhaps that offset a bit by auto-related exposures or a different factor going on there?
谢谢。那么，就本年度选择中 50 个基点的影响而言，我知道您提到是由于业务组合的原因，但我认为财产险的增长应有利于基本面。那么，这是否被汽车相关风险或其他因素部分抵消了？
Rich Baio
This is Rich. I think it's -- that's certainly part of the equation, but you also have to look at the contribution that the short tail lines make relative to the other casualty lines as well, which have higher loss ratios. So, if you look for instance at other liability and auto as an example, that represents close to 50% of the total book of business, which does have typically higher loss ratios than property or short tail lines.
我是 Rich。我认为，这当然是方程的一部分，但你还必须考虑短尾险种相对于其他责任险（后者通常损失率更高）的贡献。例如，如果你看其他责任险和汽车险，它们约占全部业务的 50%，而这些通常比财产险或短尾险种具有更高的损失率。
Unidentified Analyst
不具名分析师
All right. Thank you.
好的，谢谢。
Rob Berkley
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
运营商
At this time, there are no further questions. I'll hand things back to Mr. Rob Berkley for any additional or closing remarks.
目前没有其他问题。我将把话筒交还给 Rob Berkley 先生，让他做补充或结束发言。
Rob Berkley
Okay. Lisa, thank you very much for hosting us this evening, and thank you to all our participants for dialing in.
好的。Lisa，非常感谢您今晚的主持，也感谢所有参与者的拨入。
I think I'll just flag, again, clearly an outstanding year, but that's a reflection of what we did yesterday, but perhaps equally, if not more important, is how we have set the table for 2025, and that is very well positioned. In addition to that, with every passing day, we are setting the table for '26. So, the business is firing on all cylinders, and we do not see that changing for the foreseeable.
我想再次指出，今年无疑是一个卓越的年份，这反映了我们昨天的表现，但同样重要，甚至更重要的是，我们已经为 2025 年奠定了坚实的基础，而且定位非常好。除此之外，随着每一天的过去，我们也在为 2026 年做准备。所以，业务正处于全面运转状态，我们认为在可预见的未来这种状态不会改变。
Thank you again for dialing in, and we look forward to speaking with you in about 90 days. Have a good evening.
再次感谢您的拨入，我们期待在大约 90 天后与您再次交流。祝您晚上好。
Operator
主持人
And once again, everyone, that does conclude today's conference. We would like to thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
再次提醒各位，今天的会议到此结束。我们感谢大家的参与。现在您可以断开连接。
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