2025-01-31 Chevron Corporation (CVX) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 31, 2025 11:00 AM ET

Company Participants

Jake Spiering - Head, IR

Mike Wirth - Chairman and CEO

Eimear Bonner - CFO

Conference Call Participants

Biraj Borkhataria - RBC

Paul Cheng - Scotiabank

Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs

Doug Leggate - Wolfe Research

Devin McDermott - Morgan Stanley

Stephen Richardson - Evercore ISI

Jason Gabelman - TD Cowen

Alastair Syme - Citi

Betty Jiang - Barclays

Ryan Todd - Piper Sandler

John Royall - JPMorgan

Jean Ann Salisbury - Bank of America.

Lucas Hermann - BNP Paribas

Joshua Silverstein - UBS

Paul Sankey - Sankey Research

Nitin Kumar - Mizuho

Bob Brackett - Bernstein Research

Neal Dingmann - Truist

Geoff Jay - Daniel Energy Partners

Operator

主持人

Good morning. My name is Katie and I will be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to Chevron's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

大家早上好。我叫Katie，今天将担任本次会议的会议协调员。欢迎参加雪佛龙2024年第四季度财报电话会议。现阶段，所有参与者仅处于聆听模式。发言人讲话结束后，将进入问答环节，届时将提供相关指示。[主持人指示] 请大家注意，本次电话会议正在录音。

I will now turn the conference call over to the Head of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Jake Spiering. Please go ahead.

现在，我将把电话会议交给雪佛龙公司的投资者关系负责人Jake Spiering先生。请开始。

Jake Spiering

Thank you, Katie, and welcome to Chevron's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. I’m Jake Spiering, Head of Investor Relations. Our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth, and CFO, Eimear Bonner, are on the call with me today. We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron’s website.

谢谢你，Katie，欢迎参加雪佛龙2024年第四季度财报电话会议及网络直播。我是Jake Spiering，担任投资者关系负责人。今天与我一同参加电话会议的还有我们的董事长兼首席执行官Mike Wirth以及首席财务官Eimear Bonner。我们将在会议中引用发布在雪佛龙网站上的幻灯片和预先准备的发言稿。

Before we begin, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to this presentation. Please review the cautionary statement and additional information presented on Slide 2.

在开始之前，请注意，本次演示中包含了估计、预测及其他前瞻性声明。非GAAP指标的调节信息可在本次演示的附录中找到。请查阅第2页上展示的风险提示声明和其他相关信息。

Now, I will turn it over to Mike.

现在，我将把时间交给Mike。

Mike Wirth

迈克·怀斯

Thanks, Jake, and thank you everyone for joining us today. Chevron delivered another year of strong results in 2024. We achieved record production both globally and in the United States and reached key milestones that are expected to underpin years of future cash flow. This includes outstanding performance in the Permian, exceeding expectations with production growth of nearly 18% from last year; Delivering key project start-ups in the Gulf of America; Fully integrating PDC Energy, expanding our position in the DJ Basin; Optimizing our portfolio through asset sales and swaps that maximize long-term value; and completing WPMP and achieving first oil at the future growth project at TCO last week.

谢谢你，Jake，也感谢大家今天的参与。雪佛龙在2024年又交出了一份强劲业绩。我们在全球及美国均创下了产量记录，并实现了一系列关键里程碑，这些里程碑预计将支撑未来多年的现金流。这包括在二叠纪盆地的卓越表现，产量增长近18%，超出预期；在美洲湾交付了关键项目启动；全面整合了PDC Energy，扩大了我们在DJ盆地的地位；通过资产出售和互换优化了我们的资产组合，从而最大化长期价值；以及上周完成了WPMP并在TCO未来增长项目中实现了首采油。

We also returned a record $27 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Over the past two years, we’ve repurchased $30 billion and reduced our outstanding share count by 10%. We continued to build our new energies business and complete projects to lower the carbon intensity of our operations. In 2024, we sold over 20 million barrels of bio-based diesel and advanced foundational projects in CCUS and hydrogen. We also completed projects designed to abate over 700 thousand tons of CO2 emissions annually.

我们还通过分红和股票回购向股东返还了创纪录的270亿美元现金。在过去两年中，我们回购了300亿美元股票，并将流通股数量减少了10%。我们持续发展新能源业务，并完成了降低运营碳强度的项目。在2024年，我们销售了超过2000万桶生物基柴油，并推进了CCUS和氢能等基础项目。同时，我们还完成了旨在每年减少超过70万吨CO2排放的项目。

Now, I’ll turn it over to Eimear to go over the financials.

现在，我将时间交给Eimear，由她讲解财务情况。

Eimear Bonner

Thanks, Mike. Chevron reported fourth quarter earnings of $3.2 billion, or $1.84 per share. Adjusted earnings were $3.6 billion, or $2.06 per share. Included in the quarter were special items totaling $1.1 billion related to restructuring and impairment charges. Foreign currency gains were $720 million. Full-year organic CapEx was aligned with our announced $16 billion budget. Inorganic CapEx of $530 million related mostly to lease acquisitions and new energies investments. We maintained double digit returns with adjusted ROCE of 10.5% for the year.

谢谢你，Mike。雪佛龙报告第四季度收益为32亿美元，即每股1.84美元。调整后收益为36亿美元，即每股2.06美元。本季度包含与重组和减值相关的特别项目共计11亿美元。外汇收益为7.2亿美元。全年有机资本支出符合我们宣布的160亿美元预算。非有机资本支出为5.3亿美元，主要用于租赁收购和新能源投资。全年调整后资本回报率（ROCE）维持在两位数，为10.5%。

Compared with last quarter, adjusted earnings were $900 million lower. Adjusted upstream earnings were impacted by revisions to asset retirement obligations and timing effects, including year-end inventory valuation. Adjusted Downstream earnings were lower due to softer refining and chemicals margins and timing effects.

与上一季度相比，调整后收益低了9亿美元。调整后的上游收益受到资产退役义务修订和时效性因素（包括年末库存估值）的影响。调整后的下游收益因炼油和化工利润率走软及时效性因素而下降。

Chevron’s cash generation continued to position the company for long-term success while rewarding shareholders. In 2024, we invested capital efficiently, growing production by 7%; generated nearly $8 billion in proceeds from asset sales; sustained our long track record of dividend increases and repurchased 5% of shares outstanding; and maintained a strong balance sheet, ending the year with a net debt ratio of 10%.

雪佛龙的现金生成继续为公司的长期成功奠定基础，同时回报股东。在2024年，我们高效地投入资本，使产量增长了7%；通过资产出售获得近80亿美元收入；保持了长期持续增加股息的记录，并回购了5%的流通股；同时保持了强劲的资产负债表，年末净债务率为10%。

Chevron’s long-standing financial priorities have created value for shareholders. They have guided our actions through multiple commodity and investment cycles and will continue to govern how we allocate capital. Over the past five years we have grown our dividend faster than the S&P 500 and nearly double the rate of our closest peer. Today, we announced a 5% increase in the dividend, marking the 38th consecutive year with an annual increase to dividend payment per share.

雪佛龙长期以来的财务优先事项为股东创造了价值。这些优先事项指导我们度过了多个商品和投资周期，并将继续支配我们的资本配置。在过去五年中，我们的股息增长速度超过了标普500指数，且几乎是最接近竞争对手增长率的两倍。今天，我们宣布将股息提高5%，这是连续第38年每年增加每股股息。

We’re committed to capital discipline. Only the most competitive projects in our portfolio will get funded. Where assets don’t compete for capital, we have a history of generating value commercially. The balance sheet is in excellent health, with net debt below our historical levels. We’ve repurchased shares 17 of the last 21 years and intend to maintain a buyback range of $10 to $20 billion per year depending on market conditions. Compared to our peers, we’re delivering growth with less capital and returning more cash to shareholders. In the past three years, we’ve returned $75 billion in cash to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.

我们致力于严格的资本纪律。我们只为投资组合中最具竞争力的项目提供资金。对于不争夺资本的资产，我们在商业上有创造价值的历史。我们的资产负债表状况非常良好，净债务低于历史水平。过去21年中有17年我们进行了股票回购，并计划根据市场情况保持每年100亿至200亿美元的回购额度。与同行相比，我们以更少的资本实现增长，并向股东返还更多现金。在过去三年中，我们通过分红和股票回购向股东返还了750亿美元现金。

Now, I’ll hand it back over to Mike to cover our near-term outlook.

现在，我将时间交还给Mike，由他讲解我们的近期展望.

Mike Wirth

迈克·怀斯

Thanks, Eimear. Chevron is in a strong position today, with near-term catalysts that are expected to drive the company to even better performance in 2025 and 2026.

谢谢你，Eimear。雪佛龙目前处于强劲的位置，近期的催化剂预计将推动公司在2025年和2026年取得更优异的业绩。

Our objective is unchanged, to safely deliver higher returns and lower carbon. In the next two years, we plan to achieve industry leading free cash flow growth; further strengthen our portfolio, including the expected completion of the Hess transaction in the third quarter; advance opportunities in renewable fuels, hydrogen, CCUS and power; while maintaining cost and capital discipline.

我们的目标不变，即安全实现更高回报和更低碳排放。在未来两年内，我们计划实现业内领先的自由现金流增长；进一步强化我们的资产组合，包括预计在第三季度完成Hess交易；推动可再生燃料、氢能、CCUS及电力领域的机遇；同时保持成本与资本纪律。

It's important to note that the guidance provided today exclude tests, we continue to be very confident in assets position in arbitration. We plan to host our next Investor day with the longer term outlook after we close the transaction later this year.

需要注意的是，今天提供的指引不包括测试因素，我们对在仲裁中资产的地位保持非常有信心。我们计划在今年晚些时候完成交易后，举办下一次投资者日，并展示更长期的展望。

Chevron is poised for industry-leading free cash flow growth. We expect to add $10 billion of annual free cash flow in 2026, led by growth and advantaged upstream assets.

雪佛龙有望实现业内领先的自由现金流增长。我们预计到2026年，每年将新增100亿美元的自由现金流，这主要得益于增长和优势上游资产。

With additional production from FGP and a further reduction in affiliate CapEx, we expect a sustained increase in distributions from TCO going forward.

随着FGP产量的增加以及关联公司资本支出的进一步降低，我们预计TCO未来的分红将持续增加。

In the Gulf of America, where we produce some of the highest margin barrels in our portfolio, we'll have additional growth as Anchor and Whale continue to ramp up and we bring Balimore online.

在美洲湾，我们生产的部分油品拥有最高利润率，随着Anchor和Whale项目持续加速，以及Balimore项目的投产，我们将实现额外增长。

And in the Permian, we're focused on operational efficiency and free cash flow, positioning the asset as a core cash generator for the company.

在二叠纪盆地，我们专注于运营效率和自由现金流，使该资产成为公司的核心现金生成器。

We're also executing plans to deliver stronger results across the entire portfolio, including cash savings from our targeted $2 billion to $3 billion reduction in structural costs and improved returns in our Downstream and Chemicals businesses.

我们还在执行计划，以实现整个资产组合更强劲的业绩，包括通过目标实现20亿至30亿美元的结构性成本削减所带来的现金节约，以及下游和化工业务回报的改善。

At TCO, we achieved first oil at FGP last week. This important milestone is the result of consistent, disciplined execution by the project and operations teams.

在TCO项目中，我们上周在FGP实现了首采油。这个重要里程碑是项目和运营团队持续、严谨执行的结果。

Our focus remains on a safe and reliable ramp-up of the plant. FGP adds 260,000 barrels of oil production capacity to the existing plants. We expect to achieve full production rates 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day – within the next three months.

我们的重点依然是确保工厂安全、可靠地逐步投产。FGP将为现有工厂增加26万桶油产能。我们预计在未来三个月内实现每天100万桶油当量的满产率。

At $70 Brent, expected free cash flow to Chevron is $5 billion in 2025 and $6 billion in 2026. This includes fixed loan repayments and quarterly dividends.

以70美元布伦特原油价格计算，预计雪佛龙2025年的自由现金流为50亿美元，2026年为60亿美元，其中包括固定贷款偿还和季度分红。

We are proud to bring this large, complex project online for the benefit of our shareholders and the Republic of Kazakhstan and look forward to future collaboration to maximize the long-term value of the Tengiz reservoir.

我们自豪地将这一大型复杂项目投产，以惠及我们的股东和哈萨克斯坦共和国，并期待未来合作以最大化Tengiz油藏的长期价值。

In 2024, execution efficiencies led to strong well and base business performance, helping us achieve another record for Permian production. Over the last five years, we’ve delivered compound annual growth of 16% while continuing to capture efficiencies.

在2024年，执行效率的提升推动了油井和基础业务的强劲表现，帮助我们再创二叠纪产量纪录。在过去五年中，我们实现了16%的复合年增长率，同时持续捕捉效率提升的机会。

Through optimized pad and drilling designs, and completions improvements like triple frac, we’re able to achieve these production levels with 40% fewer company-operated rigs than our plans included just a few years ago.

通过优化钻井平台和钻井设计，以及采用三段压裂等完井改进措施，我们能够以比几年前计划中少40%的自营钻机实现这些产量水平。

We expect production to reach one million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025, and plan to moderate growth and CapEx to drive predictable and durable free cash flow generation.

我们预计2025年产量将达到每天100万桶油当量，并计划适度控制增长和资本支出，以推动可预测和持久的自由现金流产生。

Our Permian portfolio delivers superior returns due to royalty advantaged acreage across all of the sub-basins, which add to both the top and bottom-line.

我们的二叠纪资产组合凭借各子盆地内享有特许权优势的区域，实现了优越的回报，既提升了收入总额，也增加了净利润。

We’re continuing to develop and deploy technologies to enhance efficiencies and recoveries. We’re leveraging our strengths in advanced chemicals and stimulation and scaling them across our shale and tight portfolio.

我们正持续开发和应用技术，以提高效率和采收率。我们正在利用在先进化学品和压裂方面的优势，并将其推广到我们的页岩及致密油资产组合中。

Our world-class upstream assets provide further growth opportunities that are poised to deliver value for decades. In the Gulf of America, where we expect to grow production to 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, we achieved first oil at the Anchor and Whale projects, and Ballymore is expected to come online around the middle of this year.

我们的世界级上游资产为未来几十年提供了进一步的增长机遇。在美洲湾，我们预计将产量增长到每天30万桶油当量，我们在Anchor和Whale项目实现了首采油，Ballymore项目预计将在今年中期投产。

In Western Australia, our discovered resource has the ability to keep our LNG plants full for decades. Last month, we announced an asset swap that will increase our equity in Wheatstone, which enables long-term asset development and monetization. In West Africa, we have a queue of low-cost developments that are expected to sustain production for many years. We recently extended leases in Nigeria and had a shelf discovery that will tie back to existing infrastructure.

在西澳大利亚，我们发现的资源有能力使我们的液化天然气工厂持续满负荷运行数十年。上个月，我们宣布了一项资产互换，将增加我们在Wheatstone的股权，从而实现长期资产开发和变现。在西非，我们拥有一系列低成本开发项目，预计能够维持多年产量。我们最近在尼日利亚延长了租赁期限，并取得了与现有基础设施相关联的新发现。

In Angola, we achieved first gas at the Sanha Lean Gas Connection project, and we plan to bring online our South N’dola development later this year. In the Eastern Mediterranean, we have a significant resource position we’re continuing to unlock. Expansion projects at Leviathan and Tamar are expected to come online through the end of the decade.

在安哥拉，我们在Sanha瘦气连接项目中实现了首采气，并计划在今年晚些时候使South N’dola项目投产。在东地中海，我们拥有一项重大的资源储量，正在持续开发。Leviathan和Tamar的扩展项目预计将在本十年末前陆续投产。

Turning to our Downstream and Chemicals businesses, we’re focused on operating reliably and efficiently while executing competitive projects that extend our value chains and capture market synergies. The recently completed expansion at our Pasadena refinery enhances our integrated value chain by running more Permian crude, supplying more products to our regional marketing business and expanding synergies with the Pascagoula refinery.

转向我们的下游和化工业务，我们专注于可靠且高效的运营，同时执行具有竞争力的项目，以延伸我们的价值链并捕捉市场协同效应。我们最近在Pasadena炼油厂完成的扩建，通过处理更多二叠纪原油、向区域营销业务提供更多产品以及扩大与Pascagoula炼油厂的协同效应，提升了我们的综合价值链。

Our petrochemical growth projects in the U.S. and Qatar are more than 50% complete and are expected to contribute to further cash flow growth beyond 2026. Both projects are feedstock advantaged, have competitive cost structures and are well-positioned to serve growing demand.

我们在美国和卡塔尔的石化增长项目已完成超过50%，预计将为2026年之后的现金流增长做出贡献。这两个项目均享有原料优势，具备竞争性的成本结构，并处于满足不断增长需求的有利位置。

We have several projects in our New Energies business that are expected to achieve key milestones in the next two years. In renewable fuels, we’re in final commissioning of the Geismar renewable diesel expansion and at our Bunge joint venture, construction continues at the new oilseed processing plant in Louisiana, increasing our exposure across the renewable fuels value chain.

我们的新能源业务中有多个项目预计将在未来两年内达到关键里程碑。在可再生燃料方面，我们正处于Geismar可再生柴油扩建项目的最终调试阶段，同时在与Bunge的合资企业中，位于路易斯安那州的新油籽加工厂建设持续进行，扩大了我们在可再生燃料价值链中的参与度。

We’re working towards start-up of the ACES green hydrogen project in Utah later this year, which will produce hydrogen from water and excess renewable power and store it underground for dispatchable lower carbon power generation. The project is one of the world’s largest hydrogen storage projects and will have over 200 megawatts of electrolyzer capacity.

我们正努力在今年晚些时候启动犹他州ACES绿色氢能项目，该项目将利用水和多余的可再生能源生产氢气，并将其储存在地下，以便用于可调度的低碳发电。该项目是全球最大的氢气储存项目之一，装机电解槽容量将超过200兆瓦。

In carbon capture and storage, Bayou Bend is working towards a FEED decision for the offshore project, and we’re also developing plans to capture and store CO2 from our Pascagoula refinery.

在碳捕集与储存方面，Bayou Bend项目正朝着离岸项目的FEED决策迈进，我们还在制定计划，从Pascagoula炼油厂捕集并储存CO2。

Earlier this week we announced plans to jointly develop scalable, reliable power solutions to support growing energy demand from U.S. data centers. Chevron is positioned to participate in this growth and generate competitive returns through integration with our U.S. natural gas business; Experience in building and operating nearly five gigawatts of reliable, behind-themeter power; and Expertise in technologies that can help provide a pathway to reduce GHG emissions.

本周早些时候，我们宣布了共同开发可扩展、可靠电力解决方案的计划，以支持美国数据中心日益增长的能源需求。雪佛龙具备通过与美国天然气业务的整合、建设和运营近5吉瓦可靠自用电力的经验，以及在相关技术方面的专长，从而参与这一增长并获得具有竞争力的回报的能力。

We've secured slot reservations to purchase seven natural gas fired turbines from GE Vernova with deliveries beginning late 2026, and we’re advancing site selection and engineering work while engaging customers. We look forward to sharing more as our plans develop.

我们已预留名额，从GE Vernova采购七台天然气发电涡轮机，预计从2026年末开始交付，同时我们正推进选址和工程工作，并与客户保持沟通。随着计划的推进，我们期待分享更多信息。

I’ll hand it back to Eimear to close out our guidance for 2025 and 2026.

现在，我将时间交还给Eimear，总结我们对2025年和2026年的指引。

Eimear Bonner

Thanks, Mike. In a cyclical commodity business, capital and cost discipline always matter. Chevron’s CapEx and affiliate capex budgets reflect our commitment to capital efficiency while funding a balanced portfolio of short and long-cycle investments. Organic CapEx is expected to remain within our $14-16 billion guidance range. As spend in the Permian and Gulf of America comes down, capital will flow elsewhere within the portfolio to support continued growth.

谢谢你，Mike。在周期性商品业务中，资本和成本纪律始终至关重要。雪佛龙的资本支出及其附属公司的资本支出预算体现了我们对资本效率的承诺，同时为短周期和长周期投资的均衡组合提供资金。我们预计有机资本支出将保持在140亿至160亿美元的指引范围内。随着二叠纪盆地和美洲湾的支出下降，资本将流向资产组合中的其他领域以支持持续增长。

Affiliate c is expected to trend down further as investments at TCO and CPChem come online. We’re targeting $2 billion to $3 billion in structural cost reductions by the end of 2026. Work is underway to deliver these savings through asset sales; scaling technology solutions, such as expanding the use of robotics; and changing how we work to improve efficiencies. We’re executing our plans to lower absolute costs while delivering growth.

随着TCO和CPChem项目的投产，附属公司支出预计将进一步下降。我们目标在2026年底前实现20亿至30亿美元的结构性成本削减。目前正在通过资产出售、扩大机器人等技术解决方案的应用以及改变工作方式以提高效率，来实现这些节约。我们正在执行计划，在实现增长的同时降低绝对成本。

Last year, worldwide oil equivalent production was the highest in our history, benefitting from a larger position in the DJ Basin following our acquisition of PDC Energy and nearly 18% growth in the Permian. Excluding asset sales, we expect production to grow around 6% annually through 2026. In 2025, we expect growth to be weighted towards the second half of the year as key projects in Tengiz and the Gulf of America come online and ramp throughout the year.

去年，全球油当量产量创下了历史新高，这得益于我们收购PDC Energy后在DJ盆地的更大布局以及二叠纪盆地近18%的增长。不包括资产出售，我们预计产量将以每年约6%的速度增长直至2026年。2025年，我们预计增长将集中在下半年，因为Tengiz和美洲湾的关键项目将陆续投产并逐步 ramp up。

We’re excited about the year ahead. We’re focused on delivering growth across advantaged assets and value chains while reducing absolute costs; starting up profitable New Energies projects and advancing new behind-the-meter power solutions; and continuing to reward our shareholders with higher returns and a differentiated value proposition.

我们对未来的一年感到十分兴奋。我们致力于在降低绝对成本的同时，通过优势资产和价值链推动增长；启动盈利的新能项目并推进新的自用电力解决方案；同时不断以更高回报和差异化的价值主张回馈股东。

I’ll now hand it off to Jake.

现在，我将把时间交给Jake。

Jake Spiering

That concludes our prepared remarks. Additional guidance can be found in the appendix to this presentation and the slides and other information posted on chevron.com.

这就结束了我们的预先准备的发言。更多指引请参阅本次演示的附录以及发布在chevron.com上的幻灯片和其他信息。

We're now ready to take your questions. We ask that you limit yourself to one question. We will do our best to get all of your questions answered. Katie, please open the line.

现在我们准备开始回答问题。请各位提问时仅提出一个问题。我们将尽最大努力回答所有问题。Katie，请开放提问线路.

Operator

主持人

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

谢谢。[主持人指示] 我们将先听加拿大皇家银行的Biraj Borkhataria的第一个问题。

Biraj Borkhataria

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Firstly, congrats on getting FGP online. I know it’s a big project. So I wanted to ask about sort of underlying cash flow, excluding working capital. This quarter, at least versus our model the $5.3 billion was quite a bit with what we expected. So could you just walk me through how I should think about any one-offs in there? And help me understand what the sort of underlying basis should be as we think about ‘25? Thank you.

大家好，谢谢你们接受我的提问。首先，祝贺你们使FGP项目上线，我知道这是个大项目。我想问一下关于基本现金流（不包括营运资金）的情况。本季度，根据我们的模型，53亿美元的现金流与预期相比显得相当多。那么，能否请您解释一下，我该如何看待其中的任何一次性因素？并帮我理解一下在考虑2025年时，其基本面应该是什么样的？谢谢。

Eimear Bonner

Hi, Biraj, thanks for the question. You're right. Cash flow, excluding working capital, was impacted by some non-recurring and accounting items this past quarter. So let me step you through the big ones.

你好，Biraj，谢谢你的提问。你说得对，本季度剔除营运资金后的现金流受到了部分非经常性和会计项目的影响。让我来向你解释其中的主要因素。

Maybe the first is we recognized some tax charges and earnings related to our recently completed Canadian asset sale, and that was around $1.5 billion. It's important to note that these tax charges are offset in working capital. But if you exclude the working capital when you're looking at cash flow, you're still going to see that tax charge. So that's a big one. That's the main one.

首先，我们确认了与最近完成的加拿大资产出售相关的税费和收益，大约为15亿美元。需要注意的是，这些税费在营运资金中是被抵消的，但如果剔除营运资金来看现金流，你仍会看到这一税费，因此这是一个重大因素，也是最主要的一个。

The second one is we also recorded some charges in the quarter that for earnings, we had identified those as special items. We disclosed them back in December and our capital release. However, we don't make the same adjustments for these items and cash flow. So you're seeing some of that flow through to the bottom line, and that's about a $500 million headwind.

其次，我们在本季度还记录了一些作为特殊项目在收益中确认的费用。这些费用我们在去年十二月和我们的资本释放中都有披露，但我们在现金流中并未做同样的调整。因此，你会看到这部分费用直接影响了净现金流，大约带来了5亿美元的不利影响。

Beyond those two items, we did have some other impacts, the combination of affiliate distributions, some unique commercial activity, and that's another $500 million. So when you add up the three elements, that's about $2.5 billion to take into consideration for the cash flow this quarter.

除此之外，我们还有其他一些影响，比如附属公司分红和一些独特的商业活动，总共又影响了大约5亿美元。因此，加起来这三部分大约对本季度的现金流产生了25亿美元的影响。

So if you've got any additional questions on those pieces acknowledging they're a bit unusual this quarter. I mean Jake can follow up with you after the call and sure you how everything flows through. Thanks.

如果你对这些项目还有其他疑问，鉴于它们本季度确实有些不寻常，Jake可以在会后与你进一步沟通，详细解释各项流程。谢谢。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

下一个问题来自Scotiabank的Paul Cheng。

Paul Cheng

Thank you. When we're looking at your next two years, I think we have a really good outlay and I think investors are comfortable. I think the question has always been talking about longer term, say, by the turn of the decade, I mean what you're going to do if we put half of that aside. And in here, can you talk about your opportunity set you already had the [indiscernible], for example, I believe there's a lot of discovery you guys have made in Nigeria and Angola. But where are we in terms of bringing those to the solution and having the project coming on stream? What we need in order for that to become a win out there [ph] and how big are those opportunities there? Thank you.

谢谢。当我们展望未来两年时，我认为你们已经规划得很好，投资者也感到满意。但问题一直在于长期来看，比如说，到了本十年末，如果我们把其中一半资金搁置起来，你们打算怎么办。在这里，你能谈谈你们已经拥有的机会集合吗？例如，我了解到你们在尼日利亚和安哥拉有许多新发现。但在将这些发现转化为实际解决方案、使项目投产方面，我们目前处于什么阶段？为了使这些项目最终取得成功，我们还需要哪些条件？这些机会的规模有多大？谢谢。

Mike Wirth

Okay. Paul, thank you. Yeah, you're right. What we laid out today is a more detailed look ahead for the next two years. And as you rightly note, there's a lot of significant growth. We wanted to provide you more confidence and visibility on that free cash flow growth. And frankly, it continues to be derisked every day here during the month of January with the Whale startup and the FGP start-up, which are two significant events that really derisk that. And so the primary objective is to provide transparency and confidence in that. And I will set Hess aside, but I'll just acknowledge that we look forward to closing Hess, which will make a strong hand even stronger.

好的，Paul，谢谢你。是的，你说得对。我们今天所展示的内容是对未来两年的更详细展望。正如你所指出的，未来将有大量显著的增长。我们希望为你们提供更多关于自由现金流增长的信心和透明度。坦率地说，在1月份，随着Whale项目和FGP项目的启动，我们每天都在降低风险，这两个重大事件确实显著降低了风险。因此，我们的主要目标就是提供透明度和信心。我暂且不谈Hess，但我要提及我们期待完成Hess交易，这将进一步增强我们的实力。

If you look out beyond the end of 2026, there are a number of things that are going to contribute to continued free cash flow growth. We've got two big chemicals projects that are under construction that will come online in the late '26, early '27 time window. We've got projects in the Eastern Mediterranean in the near term for both Tamar and Leviathan that will come on towards the end of this year and ramp into '26 and beyond. And then we've got further work underway, particularly at Leviathan for yet another expansion in the Eastern Mediterranean.

如果你展望到2026年底之后，将有许多因素推动自由现金流的持续增长。我们有两个大型化工项目正在建设中，预计将在2026年末或2027年初投产。我们在东地中海地区也有项目，Tamar和Leviathan项目近期将在今年末启动，并在2026年及以后逐步加速投产。此外，我们在Leviathan项目上还有进一步的工作，计划在东地中海地区进行另一轮扩建。

I would expect Argentina, over the back half of this decade, to begin to grow at a rate that's stronger than what we've seen thus far—contingent upon continued progress in policy and government stability and macro environment stability there, but the signs there have been encouraging and positive.

我预计在本十年后半段，阿根廷的增长速度将开始超过我们目前所见的水平——前提是那里的政策进展、政府稳定以及宏观环境稳定，但目前的迹象令人鼓舞且积极。

You mentioned West Africa. There are a number of opportunities. I talked about a discovery on the Nigeria shelf, Saudi Arabian gas, South Angola. We have a number of other very attractive prospects there. We haven't really gone below 10,000 feet to produce yet in that region. We picked up additional acreage offshore Angola, three new blocks that are undergoing seismic work right now. And we haven't talked a lot about West Africa in recent years given some of the other things within our portfolio, but that has a lot of running room left ahead of us.

你提到了西非。那里有许多机遇。我曾提到过尼日利亚陆架的一个发现、沙特阿拉伯的天然气以及南安哥拉。我们在那里还有许多其他非常有吸引力的前景。该地区我们还没有开采深度超过1万英尺的油藏。我们在安哥拉近海又获得了额外的采油权，包括正在进行地震勘探的三个新区块。近些年由于我们资产组合中其他方面的考量，我们没有过多讨论西非，但那里仍有很大的发展空间。

Venezuelan Partition Zone, huge, huge resource positions. We've been moving thoughtfully for particular reasons in each of those locations, but those present long-term opportunities that are captured and can become very attractive. And we've got a really nice exploration portfolio in West Africa, South America, the U.S. Gulf, and the Eastern Mediterranean that we expect to provide further resource opportunities.

委内瑞拉分区拥有巨大的资源储量。我们在每个地区都经过深思熟虑地推进，尽管各有其原因，但这些都为长期机遇提供了保障，并可能变得非常有吸引力。我们在西非、南美、美国湾区以及东地中海拥有非常出色的勘探资产组合，预计将提供更多的资源机遇。

We've got technology that can unlock things. And, of course, a large low-decline base that we can sustain with a very competitive capital investment and good underlying growth rates. So we've seen outsized growth here in recent times—last year's growth was 7%. We're guiding to a 6% CAGR for the next couple of years. That's probably not a growth rate that anyone would expect to continue, but there are plenty of opportunities out there in 2027 and beyond. We'll sort through and fund the best of those within a tight, disciplined capital budget. Thanks, Paul.

我们拥有能够释放潜力的技术。当然，我们还有一个大规模且低衰退的基础，能够通过极具竞争力的资本投资和良好的基本增长率来维持。因此，近期我们看到了超常增长——去年的增长率为7%。我们对未来几年预期的复合年增长率为6%。这可能不是大家预期能持续的增长率，但在2027年及以后，仍有大量机遇。我们将在严格、纪律性的资本预算内筛选并资助其中最优的项目。谢谢，Paul.

7%（14倍PE）+6%（年增长）+5%（回购）=18%。

Operator

主持人

We'll take our next question from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我们将接听来自高盛的Neil Mehta的下一个问题。

Neil Mehta

Yeah, good morning, Mike and team. Just wanted to better understand the power business and the announcement from earlier this week with GE Vernova. Mike, you've talked a lot about power being a tricky business, and Chevron seen that firsthand over the last 30 years at different points. But and wanting to ensure that you're staying true to your core competency. So how do you think about playing in this ecosystem and ensuring that you derisk it so that you can preserve the upside?

早上好，Mike和团队。我想更好地了解一下电力业务以及本周早些时候与GE Vernova相关的公告。Mike，你曾多次谈到电力业务的复杂性，而雪佛龙在过去30年中也多次亲身经历过这些挑战。但你们同时又希望保持专注于核心竞争力。那么，你如何看待在这一生态系统中运作，并确保降低风险以保留上行潜力？

Mike Wirth

Yeah. So Neil, I would tell you, you should think of this as being aligned with what we've said we were looking to do, which is leverage our strengths to advance lower carbon energy solutions to meet demand growth in the world. We operate nearly 5 gigawatts of reliable and at scale power today at Gorgon, at TCO and refineries. We know how to build and operate large-scale power generation and integrate it to a core customer. We know how to operate these assets very, very well. We've got technical capabilities that are required to do this.

是的，Neil，我要告诉你，你可以把这看作是我们之前所说目标的一部分，即利用我们的优势推进低碳能源解决方案，以满足全球需求的增长。今天，我们在Gorgon、TCO以及炼油厂运营着近5吉瓦的可靠大规模电力。我们知道如何建设和运营大规模发电设施，并将其整合到核心客户中。我们非常擅长运营这些资产，拥有实现这一目标所必需的技术能力。

In the U.S., we've got a very large natural gas position. And we've been diversifying some of our gas markets with some LNG offtake. And this allows us to backstop power investments for premium customers. We have said we didn't envision ourselves as a merchant power player, and we still don't. Building power to sell into the grid and just generate merchant power is probably not going to deliver returns competitive with our portfolio, but a high reliability at scale offering that's delivered rapidly is something that's in high demand from customers right now.

在美国，我们拥有非常大的天然气储备，并通过部分液化天然气（LNG）购销合同多元化我们的天然气市场。这使我们能够为优质客户提供电力投资的后盾。我们曾表示，我们并不打算成为传统意义上的自营发电商，至今也未改变这一定位。仅仅建设电力设施向电网销售或单纯生成商用电力，可能无法带来与我们现有投资组合相匹配的回报，但能够迅速提供高可靠性、规模化的电力解决方案正受到客户的热烈追捧。

XOM是相同的观点。

You can see PPAs that have been done for things like recommissioning nuclear facilities that give you some sense of the value that these have for customers. And we've been engaged in discussions with the hyperscalers for a year or more to understand what they're looking for and understand whether or not that's something that we can we can deliver on it. And we think that it really does make good sense for us.

你可以看到类似于重新启用核设施所签订的长期购电协议（PPA），这能让你感受到这些项目对客户的价值。我们与超大规模数据中心的客户已经进行了超过一年的讨论，了解他们的需求以及我们是否能够满足这些需求。我们认为，这对我们来说确实是一个非常合理的方向。

We're got 7 of GE Vernova’s largest turbines with reservation slots for delivery beginning in late '26 and then into '27, and would expect to be on the front end of what will be a real surge in power demand in this country. And importantly, the last thing I'll say is I think most of the people on the call are familiar with the challenges that the grid in this country faces right now and ensuring we keep supply of electricity reliable into the economy as it stands today.

我们已经预留了GE Vernova七台最大型涡轮机的交付名额，交付将从2026年末开始，延续到2027年，我们预计在美国电力需求真正激增时处于领先地位。最后，我要说的是，我认为大多数在场人员都了解当前美国电网所面临的挑战，以及确保电力供应在当前经济环境下保持可靠的重要性。

Doing this off the grid and behind the meter doesn't further tax an already taxed distribution infrastructure, and it doesn't put this investment cost into the rate base and drive up costs for consumers as well.

采用离网和计量后系统的方式运作，不会进一步增加已经紧张的配电基础设施的负担，也不会将这些投资成本计入电价基数，从而推高消费者费用。

So we think this is something that's good for America. American energy abundance can help ensure AI leadership. It's good for the public. It will create jobs and it will help to keep rates from rising, and it's good for the big customers. They're looking for reliable and fast solutions to deliver this power and eventually lower carbon options to reduce carbon intensity. Thanks, Neil.

因此，我们认为这对美国有好处。美国能源的丰富可以帮助确保人工智能的领先地位。这对公众有利，将创造就业机会，并有助于抑制电价上涨，对大客户来说也是好消息。他们正在寻找能够快速、可靠提供电力，并最终提供低碳选项以降低碳强度的解决方案。谢谢，Neil.

Operator

主持人

We'll take our next question from Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research.

下一个问题来自Wolfe Research的Doug Leggate。

Doug Leggate

Good morning, guys. Thanks for the opportunity to ask, Mike. I did warn Jake I may have a Part A and a Part B, so it's technically one question, but hopefully, you can -- I'll assume he blessed it. So the incremental disclosure on the bridge to 2027 is really, really helpful. But I wonder -- it's never enough, obviously, but I wonder if you could just benchmark against what you gave us in February 2023, I guess, under similar conditions. So what is the incremental 10, including the debt payback? What does that look like in 2027 versus, I guess, what you gave us before?

大家早上好，各位。感谢给我机会提问，Mike。我曾警告过Jake，我可能会有A部分和B部分，所以严格来说这只是一个问题，但希望你们能回答——我假设他已经同意了。关于到2027年之间的桥接期的增量披露非常非常有帮助。但我想问——显然，这永远不够，我想知道能否对比一下你们在2023年2月、在类似条件下给我们的数据。那么，包括债务偿还在内的增量10是什么样的？2027年的情况与之前给我们的数据相比如何？

And the Part B is obviously, Tengiz is the big story here. But a couple of days ago, I think the Kazakh government on the wire is actually talking about contract extensions, which is great news for you potentially, but on better terms. So I was just wondering if there was any color you could offer on that?

而B部分显然是，Tengiz是这里的大故事。但几天前，我听说哈萨克斯坦政府方面正在讨论合同延期的事，这对你们来说可能是个好消息，而且条件更优。因此，我想知道你们能否对此提供一些详细说明？

Mike Wirth

Yeah. So Eimear, why don't you talk about free cash flow for 2027 and then I'll take the concession.

好的。那么Eimear，你先谈谈2027年的自由现金流情况，我随后再谈谈让步方面的内容。

Eimear Bonner

Yeah. Thanks, Doug. The short answer is it's aligned with the previous guidance. So we're really reaffirming that guidance. Obviously, since then, there's been some puts and takes. On the portfolio side, we've -- out of PDC since our last guidance. We've divested some assets as well, primarily Canada. There's been some price assumptions changed. But we do have growth laid out today out to 2026, and we see growth beyond that. We've got the CP-10 projects that will be online around that time. We'll have some Eastern Med brine feed projects in Tamar and Leviathan that will come after 2026. Mike talked earlier about the Argentina potential there and the power potential.

是的，谢谢你，Doug。简短的回答是，这与之前的指引是一致的。所以我们实际上是在重申那一指引。显然，自那以后，情况有些起伏。在资产组合方面，自上次指引以来，我们已经剥离了部分资产，主要是加拿大的资产，并且部分价格假设也发生了变化。但我们今天已经规划了到2026年的增长，并预见未来会有进一步增长。我们有CP-10项目将在那时上线；我们将在Tamar和Leviathan推出一些东地中海盐水注入项目，这些将在2026年之后启动。Mike早前谈到了阿根廷潜力以及电力潜力。

And then in addition to that, we've got the $2 billion to $3 billion of structural cost reductions that are underway. So the short answer is it's aligned. But maybe many of the projects that we talked about a few years ago have also been derisked since then. So we'd expect to provide the 2027 outlook later on in the year.

此外，我们还有正在进行中的20亿至30亿美元的结构性成本削减。所以简短回答是，这与之前的指引保持一致。但也许我们几年前谈到的许多项目自那以后已经降了风险。所以我们预计将在今年晚些时候提供2027年的展望。

Mike Wirth

Okay. Yeah on the concession, Doug, we're still focused on ramping up safely and reliably. This is a really important milestone, and it signals moving to the next phase in the life of that field. And so we're absolutely laser-focused on getting that right. Early performance has been very stable and very encouraging.

好的。关于让步方面，Doug，我们仍然专注于安全、可靠地加速投产。这是一个非常重要的里程碑，标志着该油田进入下一阶段。因此，我们绝对全力以赴确保这一点。初期表现非常稳定且令人鼓舞。

As we get through the ramp up to see the plant and reservoir performance, we'll then be able to really turn our focus to the future. This is a world-class asset. We've got a long, proud history in Kazakhstan and with the TCO partnership and we certainly would like to extend the concession, but it has to work for everyone. It has to work for the Republic. It has to work for our company and our shareholders and has to be competitive. These things take time. These are complex contracts, complex negotiations. And we'll keep you posted as that evolves over time.

随着我们完成投产加速阶段，观察工厂和油藏的表现，我们将真正转向未来。这是一项世界级资产。我们在哈萨克斯坦及TCO合作中有着悠久而自豪的历史，我们当然希望延长该特许经营权，但它必须对所有人都有利。它必须对共和国、对我们的公司和股东都有利，而且必须具备竞争力。这些事情需要时间，这些都是复杂的合同、复杂的谈判。随着这些进展，我们会及时通知大家。

Okay. And that was a clever way to get two completely unrelated questions in, Doug. So if Jake's blessed that, I better have to talk to Jake about the ground rules in the future. Let's go to the next question.

好的。这真是一个巧妙的方式，把两个完全无关的问题一起提出来，Doug。如果Jake已经同意了，我最好以后和Jake讨论一下提问规则。我们进入下一个问题。

Operator

主持人

We'll go next to Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

接下来，我们将由摩根士丹利的 Devin McDermott 提问。

Devin McDermott

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question about detailed update today. Mike, I wanted to ask you about policy. There's been in the U.S. now a series of energy-related executive orders over the past week. I was wondering if you could talk through how this might impact some of your oil and gas operations, especially given the large presence you have in the Gulf and then new energy opportunities and we think through the flurry of news flow over the last year. There's also been some headlines in your Venezuela license, if you could address that as part of the response. I'd appreciate it. I know a lot to unpack there, but I would love your thoughts. Thanks.

大家早上好，谢谢你们接受我关于详细更新的提问。Mike，我想问一下关于政策的问题。过去一周，美国发布了一系列与能源相关的行政命令。我想知道你能否解释一下这可能会如何影响你们的石油和天然气运营，尤其是考虑到你们在墨西哥湾拥有大量资产，以及新能领域的机遇，再加上过去一年来新闻纷飞的局面。如果你能在回答中提及你们在委内瑞拉牌照方面的情况，我将非常感激。我知道这个问题涉及很多内容，但我非常希望听到你的看法。谢谢。

Mike Wirth

Yes, that is a lot, Devin.

是的，Devin，这确实是个复杂的问题。

Devin McDermott

Following up with [multiple speakers].

接下来是对多位发言人的追问。

Mike Wirth

But they're all related for you. So let me start kind of at the highest level. For years now, I've been calling for a more balanced discussion about energy. We're finally beginning to see it. We're seeing economic prosperity, energy security and environmental protection, all being brought together. And in the past, really the dialogue skewed toward environmental protection and much less toward the others.

但这些问题对你来说都是相关的。所以让我从最高层面开始说明。多年来，我一直呼吁对能源进行更平衡的讨论。如今我们终于开始看到这种平衡——经济繁荣、能源安全和环境保护正在融合在一起。而过去的对话往往偏向环境保护，而其他方面则较少被重视。

And I think it's a welcome change to see this reflected. It's a conversation that now recognizes oil and gas are a vital part of the energy mix in this country and in the world, which is a reality that we all need to acknowledge. And it's good to see an administration that is intent on leveraging and encouraging American energy abundance for the benefit of our economy, for the benefit of our security, for the benefit of our allies and intends to do that in a way that also provides environmental protection.

我认为看到这一变化是一件令人欣喜的事。这场对话现在承认石油和天然气是我国乃至全球能源结构中不可或缺的一部分，这是我们所有人都必须认识到的现实。看到现任政府致力于利用和鼓励美国丰富的能源资源以造福我们的经济、安全和盟友，并以同时实现环境保护的方式来做到这一点，这是非常好的。

So I think it's a more balanced approach. I think it's a welcome approach. And the specifics still remain to play out. Many of these executive orders direct agencies to review things, to look at actions that can be taken. And so actual actions, I think, for the most part, still remain ahead of us, but I would expect them to encourage more access—for instance, more regular lease sales.

所以我认为这是一个更平衡的方法，也是一个受欢迎的方法。至于具体措施，还需要进一步落实。许多行政命令要求各机构进行审查，探讨可采取的措施。我认为实际行动在很大程度上仍未出台，但我预计这些措施会鼓励更多的资源获取，例如更定期的租赁销售。

There is building bipartisan support for permit reform, which is very necessary, not just for our industry but for many other industries where it's become so difficult to build things here in the United States. And so I think it's a welcome reset and one that our country will benefit from.

目前正在形成两党支持的许可改革，这非常必要，不仅对我们的行业，也对美国许多其他行业来说，因为在这里建设项目变得异常困难。所以我认为这是一次受欢迎的重置，我们的国家将从中受益。

I can't say much more about anything. Venezuela is an issue that has been around for quite some time—during the first Trump administration, during the Biden administration. And now again, in the second Trump term, sanctions exist on Venezuela. We're the only U.S. company on the ground there. We're focused on keeping our people safe, ensuring that assets operate in a way that protects the environment, and complying with all the laws. We don't set policy. We comply with laws, and we engage with the government to help inform them of the potential impacts of policy choices, and we'll continue to do so. Thanks for the question, Devin.

除此之外，我无话可说。委内瑞拉的问题长期存在——无论是第一届特朗普政府，还是拜登政府时期。而现在，在第二个特朗普任期中，对委内瑞拉仍有制裁。我们是美国在当地唯一的公司。我们专注于确保员工安全、确保资产以保护环境的方式运营，并遵守所有法律。我们不制定政策，只是遵守法律，并与政府接触，帮助他们了解政策选择可能带来的影响，我们将继续这样做。谢谢你的提问，Devin.

Operator

主持人

We'll take our next question from Stephen Richardson with Evercore ISI.

我们将接听来自Evercore ISI的Stephen Richardson的下一个问题。

Stephen Richardson

Hi, good morning. Mike, I was wondering if you could talk about the position of the Permian in the portfolio. You've got this 1 million-barrel a day target out there that looks like you're going to hit if you haven't already hit it pretty soon. And I know there was a previous target in the last Analyst Day that was a little higher than that.

大家早上好，Mike。我想请你谈谈二叠纪盆地在你们资产组合中的地位。你们提出了每天100万桶的目标，看起来如果还没有达到，很快就会达到。我知道在上一次分析师日时，你们的目标稍微高了一些。

Can you maybe just talk about the right amount of unconventionals in the portfolio? And do we think about the Permian and the DJ? Do we think about it relative to the total – is it production? Is it decline curve? How do you think about the right amount of unconventionals for the size of the corporation over the next couple of years?

你能否谈谈资产组合中非常规油气的合理比例是多少？对于二叠纪盆地和DJ盆地，我们是如何考虑的？我们是从总产量角度看，还是从衰减曲线角度看？在未来几年内，对于一个公司来说，如何确定非常规油气的合适比例？

Mike Wirth

Yeah. So let me start. I'm really pleased with our team in the Permian and the performance again in the fourth quarter. We delivered 992,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter. We were over 1 million barrels a day in December. For the full year, we saw a growth of 18% and really, really strong performance across all aspects of the Permian. And we expect to continue to grow even as we've now passed our peak investments, and we've started to bring capital investment down.

是的。让我先说说，我对我们在二叠纪盆地的团队以及第四季度的表现非常满意。第四季度我们交付了每天992,000桶，而12月份已经超过每天100万桶。全年来看，我们实现了18%的增长，二叠纪盆地各方面的表现都非常强劲。即便我们已经过了投资高峰并开始降低资本投入，我们仍预计将继续增长。

We still expect to see a 9% or 10% production growth in 2025. Something a little bit less than that, probably in 2026. And we're headed towards a lower rate of growth. And at some point, you can't grow a position like this infinitely.

我们仍预计2025年产量将增长9%或10%，而2026年可能会略低一些。我们的增长速度正趋向于降低，因为这种资产的规模不可能无限制地增长。

That was the criticism of the industry last decade is companies only focused on growing, and they never focused on generating free cash flow and returning to shareholders. And that's always been our plan to do just that.

过去十年业内的批评在于，各家公司只关注增长，而从未注重产生自由现金流并回馈股东，而这一直是我们的计划。

So we'll have an asset that will produce something over 1 million barrels a day for many, many years into the future. And as we can maintain that with a lower rate of capital investment than we've required to get to where we are, that really opens up the free cash flow off of that asset. So we are very pleased with that.

因此，我们将拥有一个未来多年每天产量超过100万桶的资产，并且如果我们能以比过去更低的资本投入来维持这一水平，就能极大地释放该资产的自由现金流。对此我们非常满意。

We've got 400,000 barrels a day, give or take now in the DJ Basin, which is kind of in that plateau phase where we can draw free cash flow off of that. We closed Hess. There's another couple of hundred thousand barrels a day in the Bakken. You bring Argentina in, and now you're talking 1.7 million barrels a day or so. And this year, we produced 3.3 in change. And so it's kind of 50% of the portfolio. And the nice thing about that is that very modest CapEx you can hold that production flat for quite some time and use that as a big cash generator. And so that is the intent.

目前在DJ盆地，我们大约有每天400,000桶的产量，正处于一个平台期，在这个阶段我们可以从中获得自由现金流。我们完成了Hess交易，在Bakken地区还有另外几乎每天200,000桶的产量。再加上阿根廷的产量，总计约为每天170万桶左右，今年我们的产量增长达到了3.3（百万桶）。这大约占到整个资产组合的50%。好处在于，只需要非常适度的资本支出，就可以保持这一产量水平相当长的一段时间，从而成为一个巨大的现金生成器，这正是我们的目标。

There's always the prospects that we see technology breakthroughs. We're working on improved recoveries that if economic could open a new phase of growth. And I don't want to predict that, but I certainly wouldn't want to rule that out.

总会有技术突破的前景。我们正在致力于提高采收率，这如果经济上可行，可能会开启一个新的增长阶段。我不想对这进行预测，但也绝不会排除这种可能性。

And so as we continue to get better and better at this and develop technologies to improve recoveries, we can extend the plateau, we could raise plateaus, but this is a highly economic asset that is a core position that will generate production and cash long into the future.

因此，随着我们不断提高和开发提高采收率的技术，我们可以延长平台期，甚至提高平台水平，但这毕竟是一项极具经济效益的核心资产，将在未来长期产生产量和现金流。

And of course, in the Permian, the royalty advantage that we have is kind of icing on top of that cake. And so that's how we think about it. I can't give you a magic formula, a percentage. But it's — like I said, it's approaching 50% of our overall production, which is a significant piece. Thanks, Steve.

当然，在二叠纪盆地，我们所享有的特许权优势无疑是锦上添花。这就是我们的看法。我无法给出一个准确的公式或百分比，但正如我所说，二叠纪的产量正接近我们总产量的50%，这占了相当大的比例。谢谢，Steve.

Operator

主持人

We'll take our next question from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

我们将接听来自TD Cowen的Jason Gabelman的下一个问题。

Jason Gabelman

Hey, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the TCO distribution, and I appreciate the detail between first half and second half of this year. The $5 billion and $6 billion for '25 and '26, is that similar to the $4 billion and $5 billion respectively that you guided to previously just at a higher price deck? And further to the distribution -- it looks like based on TCO's own filings at their operating expenses from 2022 to 2023 have gone up about $5 a barrel. I'm not sure if that's related to the Russian war or something else, but I wonder if that increase in OpEx is contemplated in your free cash flow guidance for TCO, or if that's something you expect to come back down. Thanks.

嘿，谢谢你接受我的提问。我想问一下关于TCO分配的问题，我也很感激你们对今年上半年和下半年细节的说明。对于2025年和2026年的50亿美元和60亿美元，这是否与之前你们指引的分别为40亿美元和50亿美元类似，只不过价格水平更高？另外，关于分配方面——根据TCO自己从2022年到2023年的文件显示，他们的运营费用每桶大约上涨了5美元。我不确定这是否与俄乌战争有关或其他因素有关，但我想知道，这种运营费用的增加是否已计入你们对TCO自由现金流的指引，或者你们是否预计这一费用会回落。谢谢。

Eimear Bonner

Jason, yes, I can talk to that. The free cash flow inflection that's coming is actually upon us now that the asset has started up. So we shared in the slide, $5 billion for 2025 and $6 billion for 2026. What's contributing there is obviously the production but also the affiliate CapEx is coming down. So with the project completing, the affiliate CapEx is reducing significantly, and so that's resulted in the free cash flow.

Jason，是的，我可以谈谈这个问题。随着该资产启动，自由现金流拐点已经到来。所以我们在幻灯片中显示，2025年为50亿美元，2026年为60亿美元。促成这一变化的不仅是产量的提升，还有附属公司的资本支出在下降。随着项目的完成，附属资本支出大幅减少，从而提升了自由现金流。

We also anticipate that as the plant gets [indiscernible] and the safe and reliable start-up completes, they'll be focused as well on operational OpEx and optimizing that, given the new base business of 1 million barrels a day that they will have. So that can move around a little bit during the year. But generally, we have OpEx coming down there, too. So those are two things that are contributing to the free cash flow in addition to the production.

我们还预计，随着工厂达到[听不清]状态并且安全、可靠的启动完成，他们也会着力于运营费用的管理和优化，因为他们将拥有每天100万桶的新基础业务。因此，这个费用在年内可能会有所波动。但总体上，我们的运营费用也在下降。所以，除了产量因素外，这两方面都对自由现金流产生了贡献。

Mike Wirth

Thanks, Jason.

谢谢你，Jason.

Operator

主持人

We'll take our next question from Alastair Syme with Citi.

我们将接听来自花旗的Alastair Syme的下一个问题。

Alastair Syme

Thanks, Mike. I just wanted to ask about Bolivia. If you've got a good sense of why the first exploration well failed and whether you've seen enough to make you want to go again in a different location? Thank you.

谢谢你，Mike。我想问一下关于玻利维亚的问题。你是否对首个勘探井失败的原因有较清晰的认识？以及你是否获得了足够的信息，使你们有兴趣在不同地点再次尝试？谢谢。

Mike Wirth

Yeah, Alastair. The first well was the first well. And in exploration, you learn that oftentimes, particularly in a new—relatively new basin—you need a lot of information. And so each well is actually—while you're targeting hydrocarbons, the real objective is to learn. And failure to learn would be a failure of the well. Failure defined, oil and gas happens more often than not.

是的，Alastair。首个井就是首个井。在勘探过程中，你会发现，特别是在一个新的——相对新的盆地中，你需要大量的信息。所以每个井实际上——虽然你的目标是寻找碳氢化合物，但真正的目的在于获取知识。如果不能学到东西，那这口井就算是失败。严格来说，油气勘探中的失败比成功更为常见。

And so we have a very large position on two different blocks in the Orange and the Walvis basins.

因此，我们在Orange和Walvis盆地的两个不同区块上拥有非常大的权益。

As people are well aware, others have found some encouraging things on their blocks. And so there's a working petroleum system that exists there. And we're very pleased with the information that we learned. And it does inform future activity, and it helps us understand the geologic history of that part of the basin which is fundamental to understanding how the depositional structures and geology evolved. And we'll use that to inform future activity.

众所周知，其他公司在他们的区块上也发现了一些令人鼓舞的迹象。因此，那里的确存在一个成熟的油气系统。我们对所获得的信息非常满意，这些信息将指导我们未来的活动，并帮助我们理解该盆地区域的地质历史，这对了解沉积结构和地质演化至关重要。我们将利用这些信息指导未来的勘探工作。

We are—it’s not enough, if I heard your question correctly, it's not enough to say we're not interested. It's enough to say we continue to be interested.

我们的态度是——如果我没理解错你的问题，仅仅说我们不感兴趣是不够的，我们仍然保持兴趣。

The other thing I'll just tell you is that the well went down very fast. The cost was much lower than some of the other wells we've seen in that area. And so I think the other encouraging thing that we learned is that the drilling environment there is one that we can execute very well in and keep future exploration wells in a very cost-effective manner.

我还想补充的是，那口井钻进得非常迅速，其成本远低于我们在该地区见过的其他井。因此，我们学到的另一个令人鼓舞的信息是，该地区的钻井环境非常适合我们高效作业，并能以极具成本效益的方式进行未来的勘探钻井。

So we'll talk to you more as we evaluate the next steps in both of those basins and continue to evolve our program.

因此，随着我们评估这两个盆地的下一步计划，并不断完善我们的项目计划，我们会进一步与您沟通。

Operator

主持人

We'll take our next question from Betty Jiang with Barclays.

我们将接听来自巴克莱的Betty Jiang的下一个问题。

Mike Wirth

迈克·怀斯

Hi, Betty.

嗨，Betty。

Betty Jiang

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I want to go back to the Power venture. I want to ask about how do you think about the capital commitment for Chevron related to that venture. It is really impressive that you were able to secure these high-demand turbine spots. So have all the deposits for them been made and just how much equity capital would you be willing to put into it? Thanks.

早上好。谢谢你接受我的提问。我想回到电力业务上，问一下你如何看待雪佛龙在这一业务上的资本承诺。你们能够获得这些高需求涡轮机的位置令人印象深刻。那么，相关的所有定金是否都已支付，以及你们愿意投入多少股权资本？谢谢。

Mike Wirth

Yeah. Thank you, Betty. It's still early days, and we're not providing public details on some of the specifics of the joint developments as we move into the next phase of site selection and engineering and the like. We have secured the slot reservations with payments. And those are, again, terms that are confidential. We won't have 100% of this. It will be funded through partners and other investors. And we will provide more detail at the time that's appropriate on that.

是的，谢谢你，Betty。现在还处于早期阶段，我们还不打算公开一些关于联合开发具体细节的信息，因为我们正进入选址、工程等下一阶段。我们已经通过付款方式获得了名额预留，但这些条款都是保密的。我们不会全部自己承担，这将通过合作伙伴和其他投资者共同融资。到时适当的时候，我们会提供更多细节。

The one thing that I do just want to call out is we haven't changed our CapEx guidance. And so this will be done within the CapEx guidance that we've issued. We intend to develop opportunities that are competitive with other things in our portfolio. And here, you've got the benefit of scale. We've got an early position in the queue. Gas turbine generators are seeing upward price pressure. And so it's better to be early in the queue than later in the queue. And so we'll be focused on capital efficiency here and developing a project that delivers value for customers and delivers value for shareholders. So stay tuned for more details as things evolve later this year.

我还想强调的一点是，我们没有改变我们的资本支出指引，这一项目也将在我们发布的资本支出指引范围内进行。我们打算开发与我们资产组合中其他项目竞争力相当的机遇，在这一领域我们具有规模优势，我们在队列中占有先机。目前，燃气轮机发电机正面临价格上行压力，因此越早进入队列越好。因此，我们将专注于资本效率，开发能够为客户和股东创造价值的项目。请关注我们在今年晚些时候随着事态发展而公布的更多细节。

Operator

主持人

We'll take our next question from Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

我们将接听来自Piper Sandler的Ryan Todd的下一个问题。

Ryan Todd

Thanks. Maybe if I could ask one on the Gulf of Mexico, or Gulf of America, or whatever we're calling it now. You've now got two of the three projects online for the 2025 and 2026 time period with Ballymore coming soon. I mean what -- what have you seen in terms of reservoir performance so far? What have you learned in terms from these developments, both on the, I guess, on the subsurface and on the facility side? And how does it inform kind of future potential for you in the basin?

谢谢。如果我能问一下关于墨西哥湾，或者美洲湾，或者我们现在怎么称呼它的问题。你们在2025年和2026年期间已经有三个项目中的两个上线，而Ballymore也即将投产。我想问问，你们目前在油藏表现方面看到了什么？在这些开发过程中，无论是地下地质还是设施方面，你们学到了哪些经验？这些经验又如何为你们在该盆地未来的潜力提供参考？

Mike Wirth

Yeah. Thanks, Ryan. The -- the short story is the wells are performing very well. We've got two wells online at Anchor. We've got a third well that we expect to come online in the second quarter. The fourth and fifth wells, we've got top holes drilled and the top hole section drilled, and we had remaining drilling and completion work ahead of us, a fifth well in early 2026. So we are able to drill and complete in this pressure and temperature regime, which is a new one for the industry. Reservoir performance, frankly, is at or above expectations. And so we're quite encouraged.

是的，谢谢你，Ryan。简单来说，油井表现非常好。我们在Anchor项目已经有两口井上线。我们预计第三口井将在第二季度上线。第四和第五口井我们已完成钻探至井口段，井口段也已钻完，还有剩余的钻探和完井工作，其中第五口井预计在2026年初完成。因此，我们能够在这种全新的压力和温度环境下进行钻探和完井，这对行业来说是全新的。坦率地说，油藏表现达到了或超过了预期，所以我们感到非常鼓舞。

On Whale, I would refer you to the operator for specifics and let them update you on that. And Ballymore, as I mentioned, online here midyear, and so we'll update you as we see performance out of that. But it's very encouraging. The Gulf of -- we're calling it Gulf of America. It's the -- that's the position of the U.S. government now. And there's a lot of running room out there. We're a large lease holder. There's a lot of acreage that is prospective for tiebacks. There's also acreage that is prospective for greenfield developments. We've brought costs down significantly. We've advanced technology to operate in different pressure regimes. And I think this is going to be an important producing basin for our country for many, many years to come.

关于Whale项目，我建议你咨询运营方以获取具体信息，由他们更新进展情况。而Ballymore，如我之前所提，预计将在今年中期上线，届时我们会更新其表现。总体来说，这非常令人鼓舞。关于美洲湾——我们现在称之为美洲湾，这是美国政府目前的立场。那里有很大的发展空间。我们持有大量租赁权，拥有很多有望用于回采的面积，也有面积适合进行新开发。我们已显著降低了成本，并推动了在不同压力环境下运营的技术进步。我认为，这将是美国未来许多年中一个重要的产油盆地。

Thanks, Ryan.

谢谢你，Ryan.

Operator

主持人

We'll take our next question from John Royall with JPMorgan.

我们将接听来自摩根大通的John Royall的下一个问题。

John Royall

约翰·罗亚尔

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So I was wondering if you can just talk about your operations in the Eastern Med today and just an update there. Obviously seen a significant improvement in the political situation in that part of the world, and there are no guarantees that's forever. But as Mike mentioned, you do have some project growth that you're working through there. So maybe just an operational update on how you're feeling about your position there and the risk as you see it today?

大家早上好，谢谢你回答我的问题。我想请你谈谈目前你们在东地中海的运营情况，并给我们一个最新进展。显然，那个地区的政治形势已有明显改善，但这并不保证永远如此。不过正如Mike提到的，你们在那里确实有一些项目增长在进行中。所以，请简单说明一下你们对该区域现状及风险的看法？

Mike Wirth

Yeah. So first of all, we're really pleased to see tensions diminishing in the region and hopefully a lasting piece for the people there. The headline is there's no real change to our plans, John. We expect projects that are in execution at both Tamar and Leviathan to come online by the end of the year or into early 2026. There was a pipelay vessel that was demobilized during kind of the height of the conflict. That vessel will be remobilized here during the first half of this year to complete the work that it had underway.

是的。首先，我们非常高兴看到该地区紧张局势有所缓解，并希望这能为当地人民带来持久的稳定。关键是我们的计划并没有实质性变化，John。我们预计Tamar和Leviathan两个项目目前正在执行中，均将于今年年底或2026年初投产。在冲突高峰期间，一艘铺管船曾被撤出作业，而这艘船将在今年上半年重新投入使用，以完成其正在进行的工作。

So the next leg of growth after those two projects would be a Leviathan expansion. We're currently in FEED for that. It would be a significant growth in production for Leviathan. Still work to be done but that's a project that would come online towards the end of this decade and continue to step up the production on that asset significantly. So despite all the activity we've seen in that region, we'll see production up by 25% over the next two years and something closer to 50% by 2030.

因此，在这两个项目之后，下一阶段的增长将是Leviathan的扩建。我们目前正在进行该项目的初步工程设计（FEED）。这将显著提高Leviathan的产量。虽然仍有工作需要完成，但该项目预计将在本十年末投产，并大幅提升该资产的生产能力。所以，尽管该地区活动不断，我们预计未来两年产量将增长25%，到2030年则接近50%。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.

谢谢。我们将接听来自美国银行的Jean Ann Salisbury的下一个问题。

Jean Ann Salisbury

The ramp is basically tracking to your expectations or even exceeding them and when you might have any more to share about potential debottlenecking potential?

目前投产进度基本符合你们的预期，甚至超出预期。请问你们是否还有关于潜在瓶颈解除（debottlenecking）方面的更多信息可以分享？

Mike Wirth

Jean, you came off mute partly into your question, and you're -- I caught the part about ramp and debottlenecking. Were you asking about FGP?

Jean，你的提问中后半部分信号不太清楚，但我听到了关于投产进度和解除瓶颈的部分。你是问关于FGP的吗？

Jean Ann Salisbury

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Mike Wirth

Okay. Good. Yeah. So look, we're a little bit more than a week into this at this point. And so it's very early days. But I will tell you, the operations have been very stable. This is a big complex process operation with crude stabilization, some fractionation, obviously, the high-pressure sour gas injection and temperatures and pressures that are significant. And so seeing stable operations is very encouraging. We have seen production step up. The well deliverability has been very strong, and we've completed all that work last year, but the field performance has met or exceeded expectations. And we feel good about what we see to this point in terms of stable and reliable operations.

好的。听着，我们目前已经运行了刚超过一周，所以还处于非常早期的阶段。但我要告诉你们，运营情况非常稳定。这是一个大型复杂的工艺运营，包括原油稳定化、部分馏分分离，显然还有高压酸性气体注入，以及非常显著的温度和压力条件。因此，看到运营稳定令人鼓舞。我们已经见到产量上升，油井产能表现非常强劲，去年我们完成了所有相关工作，现场表现已达到或超过预期。我们对目前看到的稳定和可靠的运营情况非常满意。

We'll step things up gradually to be sure that we maintain that stability and reliability. We still have very significant exclusion zones in place, for instance, to minimize the number of people that are in a plant that is just beginning to operate with the H2S concentrations that we see there. And so it will be methodical and very deliberate in raising the production levels up to full capacity.

我们将逐步提高产量，以确保保持这种稳定性和可靠性。例如，我们仍然设有严格的隔离区域，以减少进入刚开始运行且H2S浓度较高的工厂的人数。因此，在提高产量到满负荷的过程中，我们会采取有条不紊、非常慎重的方法。

But early indications, I would say, are all positive. And any things we've encountered are well within the range of what would be normal start-up things that you see in a plant like this. So more to follow. Debottlenecking is probably a question for the future. We're really focused on getting the most we can out of this plant right now. And so we'll update you on that. I'm certainly on the next quarter call, we'll have a lot to say about performance at FGP.

但我认为早期迹象都是积极的。我们遇到的任何情况都完全在类似工厂正常启动时会遇到的范围内。未来可能会讨论解除瓶颈的问题，但目前我们真正关注的是充分发挥该工厂的效能。我们会在后续更新中告知更多信息。我肯定在下个季度的电话会议中会详细介绍FGP的表现。

Operator

主持人

We'll take our next question from Lucas Hermann with BNP Paribas.

我们将接听来自BNP Paribas的Lucas Hermann的下一个问题。

Lucas Herrmann

Thanks, Mike. Thanks for the opportunity. Really just a point of clarification, Mike. You talked about the transaction with Wheatstone, or around Wheatstone with Woodside. You mentioned that -- you talked about being better positioned to monetize. When you talk monetize, do you mean monetize the resource that you have? Or do you also imply monetize the facility, i.e. take capital out of it in some way with a potential insurance pension fund?

谢谢你，Mike。感谢给我这个机会。我只是想澄清一点，Mike。你曾谈到与Wheatstone相关的交易，或者与Woodside围绕Wheatstone进行的交易。你提到你们更有能力实现货币化。当你们说实现货币化时，是指将你们拥有的资源实现货币化？还是也意味着将设施货币化，即以某种方式通过潜在的保险养老金基金来回收资本？

And if I might just ask one other question. In essence, when you talk about returns on the power business, do you think about returns volatility-adjusted or naked, for want of a better phrase? Thanks very much.

另外，我还想再问一个问题。简单来说，当你谈到电力业务的回报时，你是考虑经过波动性调整的回报，还是直接看未调整的回报，用一个更好的说法来说？非常感谢。

Mike Wirth

Yeah. Thanks, Lucas. Look, on Wheatstone, we're really talking about monetizing resource over time. And we're going to acquire not only Woodside's interest in the Wheatstone project, but also in Julimar-Brunello, and we'll hand over to them our interest in Northwest shelf and some other smaller related things. We've got high expectations for the Carnarvon Basin for many decades to come. We've had a strong exploration track record out there. We've got a tremendous amount of resource and optimizing that resource through both Wheatstone and Gorgon in a way that's economic, that keeps the plants full, that's good for Australia, good for customers, is important, and this gives us more control over that and a bigger stake in that.

是的，谢谢你，Lucas。关于Wheatstone，我们实际上是在谈论随着时间推移实现资源的货币化。我们不仅会收购Woodside在Wheatstone项目中的权益，还会收购Julimar-Brunello的权益，并将我们在西北陆架以及其他一些小型相关项目中的权益交给他们。我们对Carnarvon盆地未来几十年的前景抱有很高的期望，我们在那里拥有出色的勘探业绩，掌握了大量资源，并通过Wheatstone和Gorgon项目以经济有效的方式优化这些资源，确保工厂满负荷运转，这对澳大利亚、对客户都非常有利，同时也使我们对这些资源拥有更大的控制权和更高的权益份额。

And so that's really the primary driver. We're not contemplating bringing in a pension fund or anything like that to sell down our position there.

这实际上是主要的驱动力。因此，我们并不打算引入养老金基金或其他方式来出售我们在那里的头寸。

The second question, or the second part of your question, was about returns in power. Yeah, look, we have volatility in our oil and gas business. We have a volatile refining and marketing business. We would look to have put in place PPAs that work for customers and work for us. And as a large natural gas producer, we obviously have natural gas supply. We've got natural gas commercial capability across the value chain.

你问题的第二部分是关于电力业务的回报。看，我们的油气业务存在波动性，炼油和营销业务也不稳定。我们会制定对客户和我们双方都有效的长期购电协议（PPA）。作为一个大型天然气生产商，我们显然拥有充足的天然气供应，并在整个价值链上具备天然气商业化能力。

And so we can use that to help manage exposure and volatility for our investment, potentially for customers if that's what they're looking for. But it's very similar to how we encounter volatility in other aspects of our business, and we'll look at it in a way that is consistent with how we look at other things that have associated volatility. Thanks, Lucas.

因此，我们可以利用这一点来帮助管理我们投资的风险敞口和波动性，或为客户提供他们所需要的服务。但这与我们在业务其他方面遇到的波动性非常相似，我们会以与其他波动性相似的方式来处理。谢谢你，Lucas.

Operator

主持人

We'll go next to Josh Silverstein with UBS.

接下来我们将听取来自UBS的Josh Silverstein的问题。

Joshua Silverstein

Hi, good morning, guys. Maybe switching to the refining and chems business. We're clearly in a weak price environment and margin environment right now. Other than maybe improving the product slate and doing some cost reductions, are there things that you guys do characteristically to improve your leverage to the recovery? Maybe bring forward some projects or turnaround to fire some other assets that might be initially challenged? Anything like that? Thanks.

大家早上好。也许我们换个话题谈谈炼油和化工业务。当前显然处于价格和利润率疲软的环境中。除了可能改善产品组合和实施成本削减之外，你们是否还有一些通常采取的措施来增强对复苏的杠杆作用？比如提前启动一些项目或进行转型，以激活那些起初遇到困难的资产？类似的措施还有吗？谢谢。

Mike Wirth

Yeah. Having spent a good part of my career in that business, margin pressure is a familiar friend, I guess, I would say. And it does spark innovation and there's nothing like feeling kind of the sharp end of the stick to make people continue to find ways to find a little more flexibility in your feedstocks, improve your operating reliability, your cost structure. Make sure you've got all the right handles for product optimization into the market via different products via different channels to go to market and customer relationships and the like.

是的。我在这一业务领域度过了职业生涯的大部分时间，所以我可以说，利润压力是个熟悉的朋友。它确实能激发创新，没有什么比亲身感受到这种压力更能促使人们不断寻找方法，从原料上获得更多灵活性、提高运营可靠性、改善成本结构更好的了。确保你拥有所有正确的手段，通过不同的产品、不同的渠道、市场推广和客户关系来优化产品进入市场。

And so I think we'll be looking to do all of those things, but we should be looking to do all those things when margins are good. And we certainly are looking to do those when margins are difficult. I would point to the fact that we're now increased capacity to run light oil at our Pasadena refinery. This is a good example of that.

因此，我认为我们将会采取所有这些措施，而且我们应该在利润率较好时执行这些措施。当然，在利润率较低时我们也会采取这些措施。我举一个例子：我们现在已经提高了Pasadena炼油厂处理轻质原油的能力。这就是一个很好的例子。

So we can integrate some of our upstream production that we may get a better netback on it versus exports, for instance. We'll produce products that can move out into our marketing channels where we might otherwise be reliant on others to supply some of our market needs. And we can integrate intermediates with the Pascagoula refinery. We can optimize during turnarounds and storms and other market conditions by thinking of those two as a system.

这样，我们可以整合部分上游生产，比如说，相比出口，我们可以获得更高的净回报。我们将生产出可以进入我们的营销渠道的产品，否则可能需要依赖他人来满足我们的一部分市场需求。同时，我们还可以将中间产品与Pascagoula炼油厂进行整合。通过将这两者视为一个系统，我们可以在检修、供应中断和其他市场条件下进行优化。

And so we'll continue to look for opportunities like that, which are capital efficient ways to increase your flexibility and ability to control your own margin outcomes in the downstream.

因此，我们将继续寻找类似的机会，这些都是提高灵活性和控制下游利润率结果的资本高效方式。

Operator

We'll take our next question from Paul Sankey with Sankey Research.

Paul Sankey

Hi, Mike, thanks everyone.

Mike Wirth

Nice to hear you back on the call, Paul.

Paul Sankey

It's a pleasure to be back, Mike. I had a very quick one just about potential corporate actions. But the big idea was I was looking at your CapEx and that 14% to 16% range. I was just wondering what the chances are if you getting towards the lower end of that range because it strikes me that you could differentiate yourselves with lowering CapEx and falling CapEx over the coming years. And further to that, I was wondering, do you think there is potential, for example, for you to cut upstream CapEx once test is completed, how would that work out?

Secondly, the volatility of your results. I was wondering, you underinvested in refining. Do you think that's been an issue? And then the wildcard was the potential for mega deals, the exact opposite under Trump and whether or not it might be an idea to go really big as opposed to continuing to sort of try and shrink.

And then the final element of the CapEx question was if you're doing this AI gas-fired power, does it -- did you cut back -- what are the areas that you're cutting back CapEx that presumably are now less attractive under the Trump guidance such as it is?

Mike Wirth

All right. Well, you have clearly pipped Doug Leggett in terms of getting the most questions into one. So making up for some lost time, Paul. Okay. So let me tick through those quickly. 14 to 16 as the range. Last year, we were at the top end of the range. This year, we're at the middle end of the range. Could we be at the low end of the range? We could. And we'll make that call based on the opportunity set, the competitiveness of those, our view on the market outlook.

The real message here is, I think you can depend on us to remain very disciplined, and we're getting more for every dollar we're spending. I mentioned earlier, the Permian is growing with 40% fewer rigs and our plans contain just a few years ago. We're growing at a 7% rate last year, 6% CAGR over the next couple of years. The infamous porcupine charts show that at the time we were spending a lot more capital, we weren't delivering that kind of growth. So we become more capital efficient. And we have to continue to look for ways to deliver energy at lower and lower capital investments.

Are we underweight in refining? We've always been more skewed to the upstream. If there are -- if the right opportunity were to come along in downstream or in chemicals, you'd always look at it. In those segments, one of the ways you derisk your position is by not overpaying. And so we're always attuned to opportunities out there. It would have to fit our criteria, which really are assets that have scale, flexibility can operate very efficiently would integrate into good market positions. So there's a set of criteria that we would apply to that.

I'm not going to speculate on mega deals, whatever that means. And then look, the AI investment is -- the power for AI is going to fit into the portfolio like other things. The CapEx on that is manageable for sure. And it's spread out over time. It's not 100% equity on our part. And it'll have to deliver competitive returns. And so will it displace something? Will it cause something else to maybe be pushed out in time?

How we prioritize those things as a part of running our business each and every day. And so we've got a queue of investments that we're constantly working on. We should not fund all of them. We should only fund the best of them. And this will go into that same process and be optimized within the overall set of investments that we're advancing.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Nitin Kumar with Mizuho.

Nitin Kumar

Good morning, everyone. And thanks, Mike for taking my question. Congrats on starting TCO. I just want to touch on the cost -- structural cost reductions you've talked about. Could you break that $2 billion to $3 billion between your upstream and downstream a little bit? You were talking earlier about the margin pressure in downstream. And then as I look at Slide 10 and the trajectory of those savings, it seems like you're a little bit weighted towards 2025. So are they more related to asset sales? Or are there other things kind of in the remaining businesses that are helping?

Eimear Bonner

Yeah. Nitin, I'll take this one. Yeah, the $2 billion to $3 billion structural cost reductions, you'll see them across all segments. So let me kind of break down and the focus areas for you a little bit. The first focus areas around asset sales. So you're right, we'd expect to see some reductions this year given the asset sales last year in Canada, for example. So we will see some of those portfolio impacts in 2025.

And the second focus area that we have looks at kind of changing how we work. So we're looking at standardizing work that we do and then thinking differently about where we do that work. And that will impact the downstream segment that will impact the upstream segment. So we're looking across all the businesses. I mean an example there would be how we design Whales for certain asset classes. Is there a way to do that more in a more standardized fashion and a more centralized fashion? So that's the second focus area and work is underway on that. So I think you should expect to see savings come through '25 and '26.

And then the last one, maybe the one that I'm very excited about is the technology focus area. So this is where we're looking at using technology to do work completely differently. So we mentioned in the presentation, the robotics example, but there's a lot -- a long list of examples that we're deploying today, whether that's drones to inspect our facilities, digital twins to plan our turnarounds. AI to look at reducing cycle times for exploration subsurface work. The technology focus area will also deliver savings.

So in terms of the profile, 2025, between $1.5 billion to $2 billion. And then '26, you should see the $2 billion to $3 billion come off then. So in total, $2 billion to $3 billion structural costs of the 2024 base.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research.

Bob Brackett

Good morning, guys. Question about the Permian. Clearly, you've laid out a disciplined model there to release cash flow, but you're uniquely positioned in that you have JV partners plus the royalty interest. You probably have the best view of the landscape. What are you seeing there in terms of discipline from the other operators? And is it a trend that's going to continue?

Mike Wirth

Yeah, Bob, it's interesting. Because of our large mineral rights position, we not only get the financial advantage that accrues through that, but we also get the information advantage. We have a position in one out of every five wells in the Permian. And so we see a lot -- we see a lot from our NOJV partners, and most of that activity is really through five good companies, companies that you all know and cover. And so you've got visibility into what they're doing via what they say we do from seeing AFEs for funding and the like.

And I would say people are sticking with their plans. And I think everybody has seen the kinds of things we are, which is productivity and efficiency gains and continuing to look for innovation and lateral length and completion techniques and proppant loading and proppant to water ratios and all the rest of it.

And I don't see anybody that is kind of heading back to what the industry was doing a decade ago, which is kind of throwing all the cash right back into growth and stepping away from what they've now established, which is a more balanced return-oriented strategy. And so I can't speak for others. You'll have to ask that question specifically to other companies. But at least what I see would be a continuation of what we have been seeing is the way I would describe it.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Neal Dingmann with Truist.

Neal Dingmann

Hi, Mike. Thanks for letting me in guys. My question really, Mike, is just on the downstream segment. It's a little bit weak last quarter sequentially and year-over-year. And I'm just wondering, was that more driven by -- I know you had more turnarounds that you talked about having about 25% less of those this year? Or is it just continue to see more, I'd call it, macro pressures there?

Mike Wirth

It was a weak fourth quarter. There's no doubt about it. Margins were off. There was some turnaround effects. We also had some significant inventory accounting effects that rolled through the downstream segment and some of the impairments that we took charges for hit downstream on a proportional basis, you see the much more than you would see anything in the upstream. And so I'm not going to call it the perfect storm, but it was a quarter where there were a lot of things that all went in one direction, and it was a negative direction.

And so can't affect margins. We can certainly affect turnarounds you've already seen that next year is a lighter turnaround schedule. The impairments or one-off charges and the inventory accounting is a function of LIFO layers and prices and inventory levels is a complex equation. So I wouldn't assume there's anything structurally in that business that says it's deteriorating. But you have these quarters every now and again in that business.

Operator

We will take our last question from Geoff Jay with Daniel Energy Partners.

Geoff Jay

Hi. Mike, I was just kind of curious about Argentina. I mean, clearly, with Malayan office, it seems like a much friendlier place to do business. You mentioned it earlier. How do you see the politics and the opportunity set changing down there?

Mike Wirth

Yeah. Thanks for asking. It's an area that I am encouraged by. We've got a very strong position in the Vaca Muerta both in Loma Campana in the South and El Trapial in the North. The geology works very well. We're very pleased with what we've seen, and we've had a, I would say a moderate pace of activity. More history down in the South at Loma Campana, but encouraging over the last couple of years at El Trapial in the north. I'm also really pleased to see the situation of the country improving. We've seen inflation come down significantly.

The banking system has stabilized. There's progress towards reducing and removing capital controls, President Milei is a reformer. And he's got a serious agenda that would make the country more investable for foreign investors. And we're very encouraged by what he says, and we're encouraged by what he's done thus far.

I think there's more to come. And certainly, he's made great progress thus far. So we are hopeful that he'll continue to do so and that we will see an environment that increases our confidence in putting more capital to work there. So we're engaged on the ground. And right now, we're taking a look at a midstream opportunity on pipeline that could help us with exports to a good deepwater export terminal.

So we'll continue to update you on developments there. But you're right. And we've seen encouraging signs, I guess, in Argentina in years gone by, and then things kind of move the other direction. So we'll be watching to see if this seems to be a more durable set of reforms and that would certainly be an important signpost for us. Thanks for the question, Geoff.

Jake Spiering

I would like to thank everyone for your time today. We appreciate your interest in Chevron and your participation on today's call. Please stay safe and healthy. Katie, back to you.

Operator

This concludes Chevron's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.

2025-01-31 Chevron Corporation (CVX) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

2025-01-31 Chevron Corporation (CVX) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Article Comments Update

热门标签

Related Articles

2024-08-02 Chevron Corporation (CVX) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

2024-11-01 Chevron Corporation (CVX) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

2024-05-08 Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

2022-02-25 Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

2024-08-02 Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript