2025-01-31 Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 31, 2024 9:30 AM ET

Corporate Participants

Jim Chapman - Treasurer, and Vice President of Investor Relations

Darren Woods - Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer

Kathy Mikells - Senior Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs

John Royall - JPMorgan

Betty Jiang - Barclays Capital

Devin McDermott - Morgan Stanley

Doug Leggett - Wolfe Research

Steve Richardson - Evercore ISI

Jean Ann Salisbury - Bank of America

Bob Brackett - Bernstein Research

Neal Dingmann - Truist Securities

Roger Read - Wells Fargo

Paul Cheng - Scotiabank

Ryan Todd - Piper Sandler

Biraj Borkhataria - Royal Bank of Canada

Jason Gabelman - TD Cowen

Jim Chapman

吉姆·查普曼

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to ExxonMobil's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Today's call is being recorded.

大家早上好。欢迎参加埃克森美孚2024年第四季度财报电话会议。今天的电话会议正在录音。

We appreciate your joining us today. I'm Jim Chapman, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. I'm joined by Darren Woods, Chairman and CEO, and Kathy Mikells, Senior Vice President and CFO.

感谢大家今天的参与。我是吉姆·查普曼，担任副总裁、财务主管和投资者关系负责人。我与董事长兼首席执行官达伦·伍兹以及高级副总裁兼首席财务官凯茜·米克尔斯一同出席。

This quarter's presentation and prerecorded remarks are available on the Investors section of our website. They're meant to accompany the fourth quarter earnings news release, which is posted in the same location. During today's presentation, we'll make forward-looking comments, including discussions of our long-term plans, which are still being developed, and which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

本季度的演示文稿和预录发言均可在我们网站的投资者栏目中查看。它们旨在配合同一位置发布的第四季度财报新闻稿。在今天的演示中，我们将发表前瞻性评论，包括讨论我们仍在制定中的长期规划，而这些规划存在风险和不确定性。

Please read our cautionary statement on Slide 2. You can find more information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to any forward-looking statements in our SEC filings on our website. Note that we also provided supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides, which are also posted on the website.

请阅读第2页的风险提示声明。您可以在我们网站的SEC文件中找到有关任何前瞻性声明适用的风险和不确定性的更多信息。请注意，我们还在财报幻灯片末尾提供了补充信息，这些信息也发布在网站上。

And now I'll turn it over to Darren for opening remarks.

现在，我将把话筒交给达伦，让他发表开场白。

Darren Woods

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. I'll focus my comments this morning on ExxonMobil's 2024 results and the company we've become. In our prepared presentation available on our website, Kathy dives deeper into our results and long-term growth outlook.

大家早上好，感谢大家的参与。今天上午，我将主要谈论埃克森美孚2024年的业绩以及我们所转型成为的公司。在我们网站上提供的预先准备的演示中，凯茜对我们的业绩和长期增长前景进行了更深入的剖析。

What our 2024 performance makes clear is that the transformed company we've built is delivering. We strengthened and further capitalized on our unique competitive advantages, technology, scale, integration, execution excellence, and, of course, people. We demonstrated the strength of our consistent strategy now in its eighth year of driving greater value for society and shareholders alike.

2024年的业绩充分证明了我们转型后的公司正在取得成果。我们巩固并进一步利用了我们独特的竞争优势、技术、规模、整合、卓越的执行力，当然还有优秀的人才。我们展示了这一持续策略的强大力量，该策略已进入第八个年头，为社会和股东创造了更大的价值。

We set and achieved ambitious objectives. When we say we'll do something, we deliver. And we expanded our unrivaled set of opportunities for profitable growth both now and long into the future. The ultimate source of cash, distributions, and shareholder value is unchanging, investments in advantaged high-return assets and projects. The proof of our transformation shows up in our performance.

我们制定并实现了雄心勃勃的目标。当我们承诺要做某件事时，我们必定兑现。我们扩大了无与伦比的盈利增长机会，无论是当前还是面向未来。现金、分红和股东价值的最终来源始终不变，那就是投资于具有优势且高回报的资产和项目。我们的业绩正是这一转型的有力证明。

Operationally, we delivered strong results across the board, including safety, a bedrock commitment underpinning everything we do, reliability, where we achieved record performance in our product solutions business, and emissions, where we've achieved a more than 60% reduction in methane intensity since 2016.

在运营方面，我们在各个领域都取得了强劲的业绩：安全——这是支撑我们一切工作的基石；可靠性——我们的产品解决方案业务创下了记录；以及排放——自2016年以来，我们将甲烷强度降低了超过60%。

Financially, we demonstrated our steadily improving earnings power across a range of metrics. We delivered earnings of $34 billion in 2024, our third highest result in a decade despite softer market conditions. Over five years, we've grown earnings, excluding identified items, a compounded annual growth rate of nearly 30%.

在财务方面，我们展示了多项指标下不断提升的盈利能力。尽管市场环境较为疲软，2024年的盈利达到了340亿美元，创下了十年来的第三高水平。过去五年中，我们的盈利（扣除特定项目）实现了近30%的复合年增长率。

We generated cash flow from operations at $55 billion, also our third highest in a decade, to fund profitable growth, maintain our financial strength, and reward shareholders. Excluding working capital, our free cash flow more than covered shareholder distributions. And we delivered a return on capital employed of 13%.

我们的经营现金流达到了550亿美元，同样创下了十年来的第三高水平，用以资助盈利增长、保持财务实力并回报股东。扣除营运资本后，我们的自由现金流远远超过了股东分红。同时，我们实现了13%的资本回报率。

Over five years, our average return on capital employed is an industry-leading 11%. When you set aside cash balances in capital and projects that are under construction and yet to start up, our 2024 ROCE rises to roughly 17%, with a five-year average of about 15%. Our disciplined approach to investing continues to generate returns well above our cost of capital.

在过去五年中，我们的平均资本回报率为行业领先的11%。如果排除在建且尚未投产的资本和项目的现金余额，我们2024年的资本回报率将上升至约17%，五年平均水平约为15%。我们严格的投资方法持续为我们带来远高于资本成本的回报。

Every part of our business contributed to our success. We built the best upstream portfolio in the industry. In 2024, we achieved the highest-ever production from our advantaged assets and the highest liquid production from our overall portfolio in more than 40 years.

我们业务的每一个部分都为成功做出了贡献。我们打造了业内最优秀的上游资产组合。2024年，我们的优势资产实现了有史以来最高的产量，整个资产组合的液体产量也创下了40多年来的新高。

In the Permian, we delivered record production from both our Heritage ExxonMobil assets and our Pioneer assets. Together, the two are even stronger. As we said last month, we now see an average of more than $3 billion per year of synergies from our combined assets, with production growing from 1.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day at the end of 2024 to 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, a more than 50% increase. This growth will further strengthen U.S. energy security and will do it with even better overall environmental performance.

在二叠纪盆地，我们的传统埃克森美孚资产和先锋资产均创下了历史最高产量，两者合力更是强大。正如上个月所述，我们目前通过整合资产实现的协同效应平均每年超过30亿美元，产量从2024年底的每天150万桶油当量增长到2030年的每天230万桶，增幅超过50%。这一增长将进一步强化美国的能源安全，同时实现更优的整体环境表现。

In Guyana, we delivered record production from the world's premier deepwater development. We've gone from discovery to 650,000 barrels per day in just 10 years, a pace for deepwater projects the world has rarely seen.

在圭亚那，我们在全球顶尖的深水开发项目中创下了历史最高产量。从首次发现到如今每天650,000桶的产量，仅用了10年时间，这种深水项目的发展速度全球鲜有见到。

The benefits are tremendous, not just profitable growth for ExxonMobil, but rapidly rising living standards for the Guyanese people. The GDP per capita more than tripling since we started production in 2020.

这些成果的意义重大，不仅为埃克森美孚带来了盈利增长，也使圭亚那人民的生活水平迅速提升。自2020年开始生产以来，人均GDP增长了超过三倍。

Turning to product solutions, we've further enhanced our already industry-leading portfolio by divesting non-strategic assets and establishing the foundation for new-to-world products that outperform existing alternatives.

转向产品解决方案，我们通过剥离非战略性资产并为全新产品奠定基础，进一步优化了已处于行业领先地位的产品组合，这些新产品的表现优于现有替代方案。

The advantage projects we brought online over time drove record sales of high-value products in 2024. Our ongoing shift to a more profitable product mix is a key driver of earnings improvement in product solutions. We also advanced our plans to develop and grow new businesses, most notably our Proxxima resin systems and carbon materials, with an estimated total addressable market of $100 billion by 2030.

随着时间的推移，我们上线的优势项目推动了2024年高价值产品的创纪录销售。我们不断向更高盈利性产品组合的转变是推动产品解决方案盈利改善的关键因素。我们还推进了开发和拓展新业务的计划，尤其是我们的Proxxima树脂系统和碳材料，其2030年总可服务市场估计达1000亿美元。

Within low-carbon solutions, we demonstrated strengthened commercial interest through additional customer contracts and equity partnerships. We're the only company in the world today with an end-to-end system capable of capturing, transporting, and storing carbon emissions. At 6.7 million tons per year, we've contracted more CO2 for transport and storage than any other company by far.

在低碳解决方案领域，我们通过新增客户合同和股权合作，展现了更强的商业吸引力。我们是当今全球唯一拥有端到端系统、能够捕获、运输和储存碳排放的公司。每年670万吨的CO2运输和储存合同量远超其他任何公司。

We're also well-positioned to meet surging demand from data centers for low-carbon power, and on a timetable that alternatives such as nuclear simply can't match. On the hydrogen and lithium fronts, we announced new equity partnerships and off-take agreements that demonstrate the significant market interest these new businesses are generating. Our success in 2024 and every other year is due to our people.

我们同样具备应对数据中心对低碳电力激增需求的能力，而且时间表远超核能等替代方案。在氢和锂领域，我们宣布了新的股权合作伙伴关系和购销协议，这证明了这些新业务所激发的巨大市场兴趣。我们2024年以及往年取得的成功，归功于我们的团队。

It's not just that we recruit the best or that we give them the most challenging assignments to build the best capability. It's our culture, our mindset. When this team takes the field, we expect to win.

不仅仅是我们招募最优秀的人才，或是给予他们最具挑战性的任务来构建最强能力，而在于我们的文化和心态。当这支团队走上战场时，我们有信心必定取胜。

That drive underpins our value creation in 2025 as well. We'll bring online a full slate of major projects to increase profitable volumes, make more profitable products, and lay the foundation for profitable new businesses. To name a few, we'll start up Yellowtail in Guyana, our fourth and largest development to date.

这种动力也支撑了我们2025年的价值创造。我们将启动一系列重大项目，以增加盈利量、制造更高利润的产品，并为盈利性新业务奠定基础。举几个例子，我们将在圭亚那启动Yellowtail项目，这是迄今为止我们的第四个且最大的开发项目。

In the Permian, we'll further improve resource recovery using our next-generation cube design and patented lightweight proppant. This is the right kind of growth, low cost of supply, low emissions intensity, and high returns. At our Singapore refining and chemical complex, our residual upgrade project, we use new-to-the-world technology to transform bottom-of-the-barrel molecules into a new grade of high-value lube-based stocks.

在二叠纪盆地，我们将利用下一代立方设计和专利轻质支撑剂进一步提高资源回收率。这种增长方式具有供应成本低、排放强度低和高回报的特点。在我们新加坡的炼油和化工综合体中，通过残余升级项目，我们采用全球首创技术将低端分子转变为全新等级的高价值润滑基油。

We'll transform high-sulfur, low-value export fuels into higher-value diesel for the U.K. market at our expanded refinery at Fawley. We'll expand our capacity to produce higher-value performance polyethylene and polypropylene at our petrochemical complex in China. And we'll add new advanced recycling facilities at Baytown to meet the growing demand for certified circular polymers, which has the added benefit of keeping hundreds of millions of pounds of plastic waste from being burned or buried.

我们将在Fawley扩建的炼油厂将高硫、低价值的出口燃料转化为适合英国市场的高价值柴油；在中国的石化综合体中，我们将扩大生产高价值高性能聚乙烯和聚丙烯的能力；同时，在Baytown增设先进的回收设施，以满足对认证循环聚合物日益增长的需求，这还能防止数亿磅塑料垃圾被焚烧或填埋。

Earlier this month, we sued the California Attorney General and activist groups for defamation and interference in our advanced recycling business. As our filing made clear, this suit is about abuse of the public trust and the hijacking of the legal system for financial and political gain. I want to emphasize that we don't take these actions lightly.

就在本月初，我们因诽谤和干预我们先进回收业务而起诉了加州检察长和一些激进组织。正如我们的诉讼文件所明确指出的，这起诉讼涉及滥用公众信任以及为谋取经济和政治利益而劫持法律体系的问题。我想强调，我们对此类行为绝不轻视。

Unfortunately, it's another example of what it takes to defend our company and preserve the value we create for our customers, shareholders, and broader society. Overall, the major projects we start up in 2025 will deliver more than $3 billion in earnings potential in 2026 at both constant and current prices and margins. And this earnings gain excludes the uplift from our Permian growth plans.

不幸的是，这又是一个为捍卫公司并保护我们为客户、股东及更广泛社会创造价值所必须付出的代价的例子。总体来看，我们在2025年启动的重大项目将为2026年带来超过30亿美元的盈利潜力，无论是按固定价格还是现行价格和利润率计算，而这一盈利增长并不包括我们二叠纪盆地增长计划所带来的增益。

As we showed at the corporate plan update, ExxonMobil's runway of profitable growth extends along into the future. Our new technology-driven businesses, such as Proxxima Products and Carbon Materials, creates huge opportunities to expand beyond traditional fuels and chemicals into higher growth, higher margin markets that are decoupled from commodity price fluctuations. This year, we expect to start up a new facility that can produce 25,000 metric tons of Proxxima products and plan to grow to nearly 200,000 tons by 2030.

正如我们在公司计划更新中所展示的，埃克森美孚盈利增长的跑道延伸至未来。我们以技术为驱动的新业务，如Proxxima产品和碳材料，为我们超越传统燃料和化工产品，进入与商品价格波动脱钩的更高增长、更高利润市场创造了巨大机会。今年，我们预计将启动一座新工厂，年产Proxxima产品25,000吨，并计划到2030年将产量增至近200,000吨。

We're committed to investing in these new businesses in a stepwise fashion, progresses in tandem with demonstrated success in the marketplace. To change in administrations in the U.S., I want to say a few words about the right policy framework for a successful energy future. I'll begin by noting that through 2030, roughly 90% of our planned CapEx is allocated to established, fully-functioning markets for energy and products that require no policy support.

我们承诺以循序渐进的方式投资于这些新业务，并与市场上已经证明成功的成果同步前进。关于美国政权更迭，我想谈几句关于构建成功能源未来的正确政策框架。首先我要指出，到2030年，我们计划的资本支出中大约90%将用于那些成熟且完全运转的能源和产品市场，这些市场无需政策支持。

Only about 10% is earmarked for nascent, lower-emissions markets where market forces have yet to fully take hold. The case in point is our Baytown low-carbon hydrogen project, which requires incentives under Section 45B of the Inflation Reduction Act to be economically viable. We believe these incentives are critical to establishing a fully market-based future where hydrogen competes head-to-head with traditional fuels. But the end goal is clear, a system where no energy source remains dependent on government subsidies.

只有大约10%的资本支出将用于那些初生、低排放市场，在这些市场中，市场力量尚未完全发挥作用。以我们的Baytown低碳氢项目为例，该项目需依赖《降低通胀法案》第45B条款下的激励措施才能实现经济可行性。我们认为，这些激励措施对于建立一个氢能与传统燃料直接竞争、完全基于市场机制的未来至关重要。但最终目标很明确，即构建一个没有任何能源依赖政府补贴的体系。

Just as energy sources should not be supported by governments in perpetuity, they should not be artificially discouraged either. The prior administration's moratorium on new LNG export facilities and its executive order limiting offshore drilling were policy mistakes that the new administration is right to reverse.

正如能源来源不应永远依赖政府支持，也不应被人为地抑制。前一届政府对新液化天然气出口设施的禁令以及限制海上钻探的行政命令，都是政策错误，新政府对其进行逆转是正确的做法。

Oil and natural gas remain essential to economic growth, jobs, and national security, both for ourselves, and our allies around the globe. Over the longer term, to achieve broad decarbonization, government policy should set carbon intensity standards on products. We believe this is the best way to engage the collective efforts of industry and leverage competitive market forces.

石油和天然气依然是推动经济增长、创造就业和维护国家安全的关键能源，无论对我们自身，还是对全球盟友而言。从长远来看，为实现广泛脱碳，政府政策应对产品设定碳强度标准。我们相信，这是调动全行业集体努力并利用竞争性市场力量的最佳方式。

To drive further innovation and reduce the most emissions at the lowest cost, policies must remain technology agnostic. Governments should not pick winners and losers. Intensity standards establish a level playing field and have a strong precedent. They were most recently used to successfully and affordably reduce sulfur and marine fuel.

为了进一步推动创新并以最低成本减少排放，政策必须保持技术中立。政府不应决定谁是赢家、谁是输家。碳强度标准能够建立公平竞争的环境，并有着坚实的先例。最近，它们被用于成功且经济地降低硫含量和海洋燃料成本。

In closing, I want to say again how proud I am of the people of ExxonMobil and how pleased I am that we are creating unmatched value for our shareholders. Compared to the IOCs, over the last five years, we've grown cash flow from operations at a roughly 15% compounded annual growth rate, more than double the closest competitor.

最后，我想再次表达我对埃克森美孚全体员工的自豪，以及我们为股东创造无与伦比价值的欣慰。与国际石油公司相比，过去五年我们的经营现金流实现了约15%的复合年增长率，是最接近竞争对手的两倍多。

We've distributed more than $125 billion in dividends and buybacks, $30 billion more than the closest competitor. And we've delivered a total shareholder return compounded annual growth of 14%, 600 basis points higher than the closest competitor.

我们已分派超过1250亿美元的股息和回购资金，比最接近的竞争对手多出300亿美元。同时，我们实现了14%的总股东回报复合年增长率，比最接近的竞争对手高出600个基点。

Looking ahead, the value creation arc of the company is equally distinguished. We're going to build an even more advantaged asset portfolio with 60% of our option production from advantaged assets by 2030. That's nearly the same amount as the next largest IOC's total production. We're going to develop an even more profitable product mix with 80% growth of high-value product sales and product solutions by 2030.

展望未来，公司的价值创造弧线同样令人瞩目。到2030年，我们将构建一个更具优势的资产组合，其中60%的可选生产来自优势资产，这几乎与下一个最大的国际石油公司的总产量持平。我们还将开发更具盈利性的产品组合，到2030年实现高价值产品销售和产品解决方案80%的增长。

We're going to be an even more efficient operator, taking an additional $6 billion in costs out of the business. We're going to generate even more earnings in cash on a constant price and margin basis. We're confident we'll deliver 2030 by 2030, $20 billion more in earnings and $30 billion more in cash flow, all of which enables us to keep our commitment to sustainable, competitive, and growing shareholder returns.

我们将成为更加高效的运营者，进一步削减60亿美元的成本，并在固定价格和利润率基础上产生更多现金盈利。我们有信心，到2030年，我们的盈利将增加200亿美元，现金流将增加300亿美元，这一切都将帮助我们继续履行对可持续、具有竞争力且不断增长的股东回报的承诺。

现在是336亿美元，再加上股票回购，5年翻一番。

With that, I look forward to your questions.

以上就是我的发言，期待大家的提问。

Jim Chapman

吉姆·查普曼

Thank you, Darren. Now let's move to our Q&A session. As a reminder, we ask each participant to keep it to just one question. And with that, operator, we'll ask you to please open the line for the first question.

谢谢你，达伦。现在我们进入问答环节。请提醒各位，每位提问者请只提一个问题。接下来，主持人，请开放提问线路。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator

主持人

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs.

谢谢。[主持人指示]。第一个问题来自高盛的尼尔·梅塔。

Neil Mehta

尼尔·梅塔

Yes, thank you so much, Darren, and good rundown there. The question I had was really around project startups and specifically Guyana. Can you give us a sense of the key milestones you're watching for in 2025 at this asset, how it continues to track relative to expectations? And there's been a lot of investor debate following the upstream day about what the long-term capacity of this asset could look like. So any thoughts on terminal plateau would be great.

是的，非常感谢你，达伦，讲解得非常到位。我的问题主要围绕项目启动，特别是圭亚那项目。你能否告诉我们，对于这个资产，你们在2025年关注的关键里程碑是什么？它的进展与预期相比如何？此外，在上游会议之后，投资者对该资产的长期产能有很多讨论。关于终端平台（产能平台）的看法如何，也请分享一下。

Darren Woods

达伦·伍兹

Yes, sure. Good morning, Neil, and thanks for the question. I'd say as you look across the portfolio of projects that we've got slated for startup in 2025, we feel really good about where they all are, the fact that they're tracking consistent with what we've talked about publicly. And, in fact, my guess is that many of them will come in slightly ahead of that.

好的，当然。早上好，尼尔，感谢你的提问。就我们计划在2025年启动的项目组合而言，我们对所有项目的进展情况非常满意，它们的进展与我们公开谈论的内容一致。事实上，我猜许多项目甚至可能会比预期稍快启动。

With respect to Yellowtail specifically, I'd say we really like what we're seeing there. I think that team who's managing the Guyana developments continues to demonstrate project after project that you just find new ways to innovate and to overcome the challenges and to deliver these things below budget oftentimes and certainly ahead of schedule. And my guess will be for Yellowtail that will come in a little better than what we've publicly talked about. But 3Q25 is a good number, a good date to be thinking about.

就Yellowtail项目而言，我可以说我们对那边看到的情况非常满意。我认为负责圭亚那开发的团队不断展示出一个又一个项目，他们总能找到新的创新方式，克服各种挑战，并且往往低于预算，且肯定能提前完成。关于Yellowtail，我预测其启动情况将略好于我们公开所述。但3Q25是一个很好的指标，是我们考虑的一个理想日期。

Longer term, I know I've been part of the conversation in December about what we project going forward and the capacity versus utilization. All I would say is that that's a challenging, to project that far in the future. There's a lot of variables that go into the developments across all of our upstream portfolios. We're going to move from where we're at today of roughly 10 reservoirs to roughly 40 by 2030, a lot of optimization that goes around that, managing those reservoirs, a lot of unknowns.

从长期来看，我知道我曾在十二月的讨论中参与过关于未来预测以及产能与利用率的对话。我只想说，要预测如此遥远的未来确实充满挑战。我们的上游项目开发中涉及许多变量。我们的油藏数量将从今天的约10个增加到2030年的约40个，这中间包含大量的优化工作，油藏管理以及诸多未知因素。

Obviously, there's a depletion curve that continues to bring volumes down, but at the same time our teams are working hard on infills and keeping the utilization up. So we've given our best guess or estimate as to where we'll be, but I would tell you that Neil, myself, all of us, frankly, including the team who's managing it, are challenging themselves to make sure that we're fully utilizing those assets. And my expectation is, as we've demonstrated over the last several years, we'll probably do better than what we're estimating, but I think I want to make sure that we're not over-promising and under-delivering and so we've got, I think, a really sound forecast for where those units will be producing.

显然，存在一个递减曲线，会导致产量下降，但与此同时，我们的团队正努力进行注水补充，保持高利用率。所以，我们给出了关于未来产量的最佳猜测和估计。但我想告诉你，尼尔，坦率地说，我和所有人，包括负责管理该项目的团队，都在不断挑战自己，确保我们能够充分利用这些资产。我的预期是，正如过去几年所证明的那样，我们可能会比目前的估计做得更好，但我想确保我们不出现过度承诺而交付不足的情况，因此我们对这些油藏未来的产量预测是非常稳健的。

And, again, we're challenging the team and they're challenging themselves to deliver more than that. And if I was a betting person, which I am, I would bet they'll do it.

再强调一次，我们在不断挑战团队，而他们也在挑战自己以实现更高的成果。如果要我打赌，我敢说他们肯定能做到。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from John Royall of JPMorgan.

下一个问题来自摩根大通的约翰·罗亚尔。

John Royall

约翰·罗亚尔

I was hoping for an update on your expectations around North American tariffs, assuming those are implemented and assuming they're in place for a material amount of time. You have upstream and downstream assets in Canada, but also downstream assets in the U.S. that could be impacted. So how should we think about what that could mean for ExxonMobil overall?

我希望能听到您对北美关税的预期更新，假设这些关税被实施并且持续一段相当长的时间。您在加拿大拥有上游和下游资产，同时在美国也有可能受影响的下游资产。那么，我们应如何看待这对埃克森美孚整体可能意味着什么？

Darren Woods

达伦·伍兹

Good morning, John. Thanks for the question. I'll tell you the way that we're looking. Obviously, there's a lot of noise and speculation in this space, and I would put it in the same category as we think about prices and where prices are going. At the end of the day, what we can control is how effective and efficient we are as operators, making sure that we're producing the highest value products for the kit that we have and efficiently getting it to market. And I think that's going to, at the end of the day, no matter where the market moves, there's a cost-to-supply curve.

早上好，约翰。谢谢你的提问。我来谈谈我们的看法。显然，这一领域充斥着很多噪音和猜测，我会把它归为与价格及价格走向同一类的问题。归根结底，我们能控制的是作为运营者的效率和效能，确保我们为现有资源生产出最高价值的产品，并高效地将其推向市场。我认为，无论市场如何波动，供应成本曲线始终存在。

All the work we've been doing over the last eight years has been to drive our production to the low end of the cost-to-supply curve so that we have a significant margin versus the last marginal barrel of production that's required to meet the market demand. None of that's going to change with tariffs. That's all going to get shifted around, and our view is we're going to continue to be a very cost-competitive, low-cost-to-supply source, and therefore we'll continue to outperform competition, and that's basically how we're looking at it as we kind of wade through the noise that's out there in the media and the press with respect to all the speculation around policy.

过去八年来，我们所做的一切工作都是为了将我们的生产成本降至供应成本曲线的低端，从而使我们在满足市场需求所需的最后一桶边际产量上获得显著的利润空间。关税不会改变这一点。这一切都只是会有一些调整，我们的观点是，我们将继续保持极具成本竞争力、低供应成本的优势，因此我们将继续优于竞争对手。这基本就是我们在应对媒体和新闻中关于政策猜测的纷扰时的看法。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Betty Jiang of Barclays.

下一个问题来自巴克莱的Betty Jiang。

Betty Jiang

I want to ask about your data center strategy for enabling the expansion of AI in the U.S. Carbon capture CCS value chain is a key competitive advantage for Exxon. Are you seeing any interest in the market for the low-carbon gas solutions versus just traditional gas power plants?

我想问一下你们的数据中心战略，如何支持美国人工智能的扩展。碳捕捉（CCS）价值链是埃克森美孚的一项关键竞争优势。相比传统的燃气发电厂，你们是否看到市场上对低碳天然气解决方案的兴趣？

How quickly do you think Exxon can bring these solutions to the market? And just given the recent news with DeepSeek, are you seeing any changing, too, from your conversation with the end customers? Thanks.

你认为埃克森美孚能多快将这些解决方案推向市场？另外，考虑到最近DeepSeek的新闻，你们与终端客户的对话中是否也有任何变化？谢谢。

Darren Woods

Yes, good morning, Betty. Thanks for the question. Yes, I think you hit on really what is the nexus of our strategy with respect to data centers, which is offering decarbonized power for data centers.

早上好，Betty，谢谢你的提问。是的，我认为你正切中了我们数据中心战略的核心，即为数据中心提供去碳化电力。

We're not interested, as we mentioned in December, in going into a utility business like power generation. Utility returns for power generation would not compete in our portfolio, but leveraging, the end-to-end system that we have for capturing, transporting, and storing CO2 is a huge advantage and brings a lot of value for hyperscalers who are looking to have decarbonized power and to manage their emissions. And I would say that there continues to be a very strong desire for many of these customers to build data centers that are decarbonized.

正如我们在十二月所提到的，我们并不打算涉足像发电这样传统的公用事业领域，因为发电业务的回报在我们的组合中并不具备竞争力。但利用我们那套端到端的CO2捕捉、运输和储存系统是一大优势，为那些寻求去碳化电力并希望管理排放的超大规模数据中心带来了巨大的价值。我想说，许多客户依然非常渴望建设去碳化的数据中心。

And so a lot of interest in that space. We're having a lot of continuing conversations. We have sites that have been selected. We've got -- we've been doing the work to decarbonize our natural gas, which would be an important feed in a low-carbon data center. And, of course, we've got the work we've been doing with our partners around carbon capture and storage, and we've got the green line. And so we've got all the pieces today. We've been in early engineering for these centers, so we know exactly what it's going to take. We've got a very, as you know, large and successful project organization. This is right in their wheelhouse.

因此，该领域引起了大量关注。我们正在进行持续的对话，已经选定了项目地点，并且我们一直在努力使我们的天然气去碳化，因为这将是低碳数据中心的重要原料。当然，我们还与合作伙伴一起开展了碳捕集与储存工作，并且我们已经具备绿色输送管线。所以今天我们拥有所有必要的组成部分。我们正处于这些数据中心的初步工程阶段，因此非常清楚所需的一切。正如你所知道的，我们拥有一个规模庞大且非常成功的项目组织团队，这正是我们的强项。

And so we're acting as a bit of an integrator in the early days to accelerate the schedules, which is really important to many of the customers. Our view is, we'll bring this on faster than anybody else in industry, and we'll certainly bring it on faster than any other opportunities for decarbonization. My guess would be, depending on how the discussions go with customers, that we could get a site up and going by 2028 and then have it decarbonized into 2029.

因此，在早期阶段，我们充当了一定的整合者角色，以加速项目进度，这对许多客户来说非常重要。我们的看法是，我们会比业内其他任何公司更快地实现这一目标，而且肯定会比其他任何脱碳机会更快地落地。我的估计是，根据与客户的讨论进展，我们可能会在2028年启动一个站点，并在2029年实现其去碳化。

I would say it's a rough order of how to think about that. But we're well into the development phase. Obviously a lot of dynamics here, a lot of moving parts and variables, in large part on the customer side, so we're there, we're available.

我想说，这只是一个大致的时间框架。但我们已经进入开发阶段。显然，这里有很多动态因素，许多活动部分和变量，很大程度上取决于客户，因此我们已经准备就绪。

We want to make sure that we've got an offering that meets their needs, and when they're ready for them, we'll be ready. With respect to DeepSeek, I would say that hasn't impacted the conversations to date that we're having with our customers.

我们要确保我们的方案能够满足客户需求，在他们准备就绪时，我们也会做好准备。关于DeepSeek，我想说到目前为止，它并未影响我们与客户之间的对话。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Devin McDermott of Morgan Stanley.

下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的Devin McDermott。

Devin McDermott

So I wanted to come back to Neil's earlier question on growth. There's a lot in the queue in the near term beyond just Guyana. You highlighted 10 startups with over $3 billion of earnings, earnings that also hold the current margins, and I appreciate that guidance. But I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more detail on the timing for some of the key projects driving that growth as we move through 2025, how the impact earnings through the year, and then when you expect to get to that full over $3 billion run rate. Thanks.

我想回到尼尔早先关于增长的问题。不仅仅是圭亚那，近期还有许多项目在排队。你们提到了10个创业项目，其盈利超过30亿美元，并且保持了当前的利润率，我对此指导表示赞赏。但我想了解更多关于推动这一增长的关键项目在2025年期间的时间安排细节，它们如何影响全年盈利，以及你们预计何时能够达到超过30亿美元的满负荷运行率。谢谢。

Darren Woods

Yes, sure. Devin, thanks for the question. I think you're right. It's going to be a busy year with a lot of startups. I'll maybe just kind of walk through the key projects that we've been talking with you all about and start with the China Chemical Complex. We mechanically completed that at the end of last year.

好的，Devin，谢谢你的提问。我认为你说得对，今年将会非常忙碌，启动许多项目。我将简要介绍一下我们之前与大家讨论过的关键项目，从中国化工综合体开始。我们在去年年底已完成了机械建设。

We've been going through startup sequencing and making sure that each piece of that kit is working as designed, and we'll bring all that integrated together. And my expectation is, we'll get it started up here sometime in the first quarter, back into the first quarter. In Fawley, we're building a conversion facility to produce low-sulfur diesel.

我们一直在进行启动排序，确保该系统的每个组件均按设计运行，并将其整合在一起。我的预期是，我们将在第一季度的某个时间点启动该项目。而在Fawley，我们正在建设一个转换设施，用以生产低硫柴油。

My expectation is we'll have that in early second quarter. We've got two advanced recycling units that we are building at Baytown. So despite the Attorney General's accusations that these are myths, we've actually got two more units starting up, one in the second quarter and one in the fourth quarter, which continues to see a lot of interest by consumers for recycled product. And so that capacity is desperately needed to meet that customer demand.

我的预期是，这将在第二季度初建成。我们在Baytown正在建设两个先进的回收单元。尽管总检察长曾指责这些项目只是谣言，但实际上我们还有两个单元将分别在第二季度和第四季度启动，而消费者对回收产品的兴趣依然浓厚，因此这部分产能迫切需要以满足客户需求。

We've got all the modules that we need for the Strathcona Renewable Diesel, looking to basically try to get that started up here in the second quarter, expect that to happen.

我们已经具备了Strathcona可再生柴油项目所需的所有模块，计划在第二季度在这里启动这一项目，预计会如期实现。

The other real big project that we've got is the Singapore Resid Upgrade Project. That is new-to-the-world technology. I feel really good about the progress we've made there. We've got all the vessels loaded with catalyst.

另一个真正大型的项目是新加坡残油升级项目。这是全球首创技术。我对该项目取得的进展非常满意，我们已经将所有容器都装载了催化剂。

Some of that catalyst is proprietary. It's the largest catalyst load we've ever done, and we did that successfully and expect to be mechanically complete sometime here in the first quarter and get into the start-up and sequencing and expect to be up and running kind of the back end of the second quarter, I would hope.

其中部分催化剂是专有的。这是我们有史以来最大规模的催化剂装载，我们成功完成了这一过程，并预计将在第一季度某个时间点完成机械安装，随后进入启动和排序阶段，希望能在第二季度末投入运行。

Proxxima, second quarter, is when we expect to get some more capacity on, and then going forward in time, a lot more capacity coming on as we continue to work with customers and sell into what we think are some very attractive applications where there's really good demand. So continue to see good progress there, and that project is coming along.

我们预计Proxxima项目将在第二季度迎来更多产能，之后随着我们持续与客户合作，并销售给我们认为极具吸引力且需求旺盛的应用领域，将有更多产能陆续投产。因此，该项目正稳步推进。

Bacalhau, I expect sometime in 2025, probably closer to the third quarter. Yellowtail, third quarter, and then, as we've said, with Golden Pass, probably the back end of 2025, expect to see first LNG and mechanically complete kind of around mid-year is the time frame that we run through all of those.

对于Bacalhau项目，我预计将在2025年的某个时候启动，可能接近第三季度；Yellowtail项目预计在第三季度启动；而Golden Pass项目，如我们之前所说，可能在2025年后期启动，预计第一批液化天然气将在年中左右完成机械安装，这就是我们各项目的总体时间框架。

And then, as we mentioned, on a constant price basis, which we provide for you guys to kind of see the underlying fundamentals of these projects, expect to see more than $3 billion of improved earnings once they're up and running full, which we're considering in 2026. And at the same time, you look at the current price margin environment that we're in, which is obviously pretty challenging. We're still, as you rack up all those projects, still about $3 billion of earnings contributions.

然后，正如我们提到的，基于固定价格计算（这样可以让大家看到这些项目的基本面），一旦这些项目全面投产，我们预计在2026年实现超过30亿美元的盈利改善。同时，考虑到当前较为严峻的价格和利润率环境，即便在启动所有这些项目后，盈利贡献依然约为30亿美元。

And that's, frankly, the goal is to make sure that these projects are resilient to the bottom-of-the-cycle conditions, so feel pretty good about that portfolio of projects and where we are.

坦率地说，我们的目标是确保这些项目能够在经济周期低谷中保持韧性，因此我们对这一项目组合及其现状非常有信心。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Doug Leggett of Wolfe Research.

下一个问题来自Wolfe Research的Doug Leggett。

Doug Leggett

Thanks for all the details. Darren, I think you missed out your 25% of [indiscernible] in your startup list, but who's counting? My question specifically is about -- I hate to be predictable. It's about your cash distribution philosophy, buybacks versus dividends. And I want to kind of position it like this. If I look at buybacks last year and the $20 billion commitment for the next two years, you could make a case that you're basically buying back the shares that you issued for Pioneer.

谢谢你提供的所有细节。达伦，我觉得你在启动项目清单中可能遗漏了25%的[听不清]，不过谁在计较呢？我的问题具体是关于——我不想显得太老套——关于你们的现金分配理念，即股票回购与股息分红的问题。我想这么表述：如果我看去年股票回购情况以及未来两年的200亿美元承诺，就可以认为你们基本上是在回购为Pioneer发行的股票。

Kathy Mikells

And so that's really, Doug, a coincidence, right, that we moved up our buyback pace in conjunction with Pioneer, obviously because Pioneer was giving us incremental cash flow to be able to do that. So that moved up our pace from $17.5 billion to $20 billion annually, and we've guided that we expect to be at that pace for this year and next year, assuming continued reasonable market conditions. But it is, I would say, just a coincidence that that $20 billion pace means that we'll essentially buy back the shares from Pioneer over a three-year period.

Doug，这实际上纯属巧合，我们确实与Pioneer同步加快了股票回购的步伐，显然是因为Pioneer为我们带来了额外的现金流，从而使这一计划得以实现。因此，我们的回购步伐从每年175亿美元提高到了200亿美元，我们预计在今年和明年都将保持这一步伐，前提是市场条件持续合理。但我想说，这200亿美元的回购速度只是一个巧合，意味着我们将在三年内基本上回购Pioneer发行的股票。

If we go to look at our philosophy overall in terms of the dividend, we have been clear that we look at that dividend and we want it to be sustainable, we want it to be competitive, and we want it to be growing. And we're always looking at it through that lens. The share buyback program as a secondary benefit, actually reduces the overall dividend in absolute terms as we continue to take shares out of the market.

从整体上看，我们对股息的理念一直很明确：我们希望股息具有可持续性、竞争力，并且实现增长。我们始终以这种观点来审视股息。而股票回购计划作为一项次要福利，实际上会在绝对数额上降低整体的股息，因为我们不断减少市场上的流通股。

But that's how we look at the dividend philosophy. And as you know, we've increased the annual dividend for 42 years running, which is a claim only 4% of companies in the S&P 500 can make. And so we're very focused on and understand the importance of that dividend for our shareholders. And we also realize compared to other companies, we have a quite large retail shareholder base that are very focused on the dividend. And so that's how we look at and evaluate things.

但这就是我们对股息理念的看法。如你所知，我们连续42年提高年股息，这是只有标准普尔500指数中4%的公司才能做到的。因此，我们非常关注并深知股息对股东的重要性。同时，我们也意识到，与其他公司相比，我们拥有相当庞大的散户股东群体，他们非常关注股息。这就是我们看待和评估问题的方式。

Doug Leggett

I appreciate the answer. I would just footnote that dividend growth per share seems to be the driver or at least the mechanism for market recognition of value. So that's why we came on this issue, but I appreciate the answer. Thanks so much.

我很感谢这个回答。我只想补充一点，每股股息增长似乎是推动市场对价值认可的驱动因素，或者至少是其机制所在。所以我们才会提出这个问题，但我对你的回答表示赞赏。非常感谢。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Steve Richardson of Evercore ISI.

下一个问题来自Evercore ISI的Steve Richardson。

Steve Richardson

I was wondering, Darren, now that we've had a little bit of time to sit with the corporate plan update and all the visibility you provided out until 2030, and maybe this is a beyond 2025 question, but it seems to us that internal to Exxon, the biggest risk to hitting that return on capital employed target seems to be on the CapEx line. And so I was wondering if you could kind of talk about the forward look on CapEx, upside, downside risks, any proportion that you think is market indexed versus contractual.

达伦，我想问一下，现在我们有了一些时间来了解企业计划更新以及你们提供的直到2030年的所有前景信息，也许这是一个超越2025年的问题，但在我们看来，对埃克森内部而言，实现资本回报率目标的最大风险似乎在于资本支出这一项。因此，我想请你谈谈对未来资本支出的展望，上行和下行风险，以及你认为其中有多少比例是与市场挂钩而非合同约定的。

And it would just seem to us like a lot of the things you're doing the next couple of years are replication of things that you've already executed in the last number of years, Guyana, Permian, those types of things. Thanks.

此外，在我们看来，你们接下来几年所做的许多事情基本上是在复制过去几年已经执行过的项目，比如圭亚那、二叠纪盆地等。谢谢。

Darren Woods

Yes, thank you, Steve. Appreciate the question. As we talked about as part of the corporate plan presentation in December, if you look at the CapEx profile, a large portion of it is kind of dealing with, as you say, the things that we've already demonstrated we know how to do.

是的，谢谢你，Steve。感谢你的提问。正如我们在十二月企业计划发布会上所讨论的那样，如果你看一下资本支出概况，其中很大一部分是用于我们已经证明自己能够做好的项目，就像你所说的那样。

And frankly, the CapEx that we're spending in that space is fairly flat as we continue to grow volumes in the cash flow and earnings that go with it. So as we're advancing, I'd say, the upgrade of our existing portfolio to advantaged volumes, we're doing that with a fairly stable and flat CapEx profile, which we feel really good about. And that reflects the continued efficiency that we're finding as we apply technologies.

坦率地说，随着我们相关现金流和盈利的增长，我们在这一领域的资本支出基本保持稳定。因此，在我们推进将现有资产组合升级到优势产量的过程中，我们的资本支出保持相当稳定，我们对此非常有信心。这也反映了我们在应用技术过程中不断提高的效率。

And my expectation is as we go forward, we're learning a ton. Even as we bring in new technology and begin to apply it, we're learning on that technology and finding additional opportunities. So I think we're on a really good trajectory with respect to continuing to grow advantaged volumes and continuing to drive capital efficiency. And so that's, we've laid out our best estimate now. But again, what I would say is really like what we're finding as we deploy these technologies and see the improvements.

我预计，随着前进，我们会学到很多东西。即使在引入新技术并开始应用的过程中，我们也在不断学习这项技术，并发现更多机会。所以我认为，在持续扩大优势产量和推动资本效率方面，我们正走在一条非常好的轨迹上。这就是我们现在给出的最佳估计。但我再次强调，我们所看到的正是通过部署这些技术并取得改进后的实际成果。

And then on top of that, we've got the lower emissions spend that we've laid out and the new products that we're looking to, new markets, new businesses that we're looking to establish with the Proxxima resin system and the carbon material ventures, which again, we see really, really high levels of interest from customers.

此外，我们还规划了较低排放的支出，以及我们计划开发的新产品、新市场和新业务，例如Proxxima树脂系统和碳材料项目，对此我们再次看到客户表现出极高的兴趣。

We're continuing with working with them in trials and testing out the product. We feel good about what we're seeing there. Those investments, which is really the growth that you're seeing with our capital spend are all conditioned on making sure that those products, the value proposition that we believe we have there is realized and compensated and generate high returns for those investments.

我们正在与客户持续合作进行试验和产品测试，对我们所看到的结果感到非常满意。这些投资——也就是你们看到的资本支出增长——都取决于确保那些产品以及我们所信赖的价值主张得以实现、获得补偿并为这些投资带来高回报。

So I'd say those are less, those are, those are contingent. We feel today pretty confident that we'll, we will pursue those investments because of what we're seeing today, but we're not going to go ahead with them until we're convinced that the value is there and we'll realize that value and the investments and get generated an advantage returns. And that's how we're thinking about it.

所以我认为这些项目的实施是有条件的。我们今天非常有信心会推进这些投资，因为从当前的情况来看，我们确实看到了价值，但在我们确信该价值存在并能够实现、产生优势回报之前，我们不会贸然行动。这就是我们的思考方式。

未来发展不是线性的，资本支出所带来的回报也不是线性的，类似于Sell Put/Call，支付过多的代价很容易掉进坑里。

Similar with the low carbon, we've said before where we need policy support, that policy needs to be in place and we need to have customers who are signing up for the offtakes and that work continues.

同样，对于低碳项目，我们之前也提到过，需要有政策支持，必须有相关政策到位，并且需要有客户签署购销协议，这项工作将持续进行。

And so there's, I'd say on top of the steady base that we've established here in 2024, all the additional CapEx will basically be conditioned on ensuring that we get good returns on that incremental investment in these new businesses and new opportunities.

因此，我认为，基于我们在2024年建立的稳固基础，所有额外的资本支出基本上都取决于确保我们能从这些新业务和新机会中获得良好的增量投资回报。

Anything to add Kathy?

还有什么要补充的吗，Kathy？

Kathy Mikells

So the other thing I would just say is we have a huge competitive advantage in our global projects organization.

我还想补充的一点是，我们在全球项目组织方面具有巨大的竞争优势。

So you're talking about, Hey, one of the things is we look out and we think about continuing to improve your return on capital employed and the new projects that are coming online. That gives us great confidence.

你提到的其中一个问题是，我们不断寻求提升资本回报率以及上线的新项目，这使我们充满信心。

And the fact that they continue, especially in our base business to figure out how to get more and more efficient.

而且，在我们的基础业务中，持续探索如何变得更加高效这一事实也进一步增强了我们的信心。

So Guyana would be a great example of that, right? We get more and more learnings in terms of looking at those reservoirs and exactly what the kit is that we need in order to optimize production, I think is a significant advantage for us.

圭亚那就是一个很好的例子，对吧？我们不断从油藏的观察中学习，了解需要怎样的装备来优化生产，我认为这对我们来说是一项重大优势。

If you look at the biggest risks, I mean, what you spend in bringing a project online is definitely has some risk associated with it. And again, I think we have competitive advantage there.

如果你观察最大的风险，启动一个项目所投入的成本肯定存在一定风险，但我认为我们在这方面也具有竞争优势。

What you get out of the ground, right? Understanding that, I think is really critical. And the Permian would be a great example of that.

从项目投产中获得的回报，对我来说理解这一点非常关键。二叠纪盆地就是一个很好的例子。

The synergies we're driving in Pioneer, as we look at recovery rates, as we look at implementing new technology, like a different approach to profit.

我们在Pioneer项目中推动的协同效应，无论是在提高采收率还是在引入新技术方面（例如采用不同的盈利方式）。

I think those all give us really significant confidence in our ability to continue to improve overall capital return.

我认为这一切都让我们对继续提升整体资本回报率充满了信心。

We have an advantaged set of projects. It puts us in a very differentiated position relative to other competitors.

我们拥有一系列优势项目，这使我们与其他竞争对手相比处于非常独特的位置。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.

下一个问题来自美国银行的Jean Ann Salisbury。

Jean Ann Salisbury

You have two major LNG projects coming online and are a major seller of LNG already. You've also signed some contracts to buy LNG from third parties that may now, kind of put the LNG permit ban being lifted, have a better chance of coming online later in the decade. Can you give more color on your LNG contracting strategy from here and how you see the LNG market in the medium term oversupplied or not?

你们有两个主要的液化天然气（LNG）项目即将投产，并且你们已经是LNG的主要卖家。你们还签署了一些从第三方购买LNG的合同，这可能在LNG许可禁令解除后，使这些项目在本十年后期更有可能投产。你能否详细介绍一下你们未来的LNG合同策略，以及你如何看待中期内LNG市场是否会供过于求？

Darren Woods

Sure. Thanks for the question. So I think as a general context, I'd say as you look forward, we continue to see a really healthy demand and important role for LNG around the world as we go out into the future and you see economies grow and people's standards of living improve.

当然，谢谢你的提问。总体来说，展望未来，我们继续看到全球对LNG有非常健康的需求和重要作用，随着经济增长和人们生活水平的提高，LNG将持续发挥关键作用。

And as countries around the world look to decarbonize and back out, coal LNG is going to play a really important role. So that broader theme we see continuing to play out well into the 2050 timeframe. So we think LNG is going to be an important product and continuing to find ways to bring on advantage supply of LNG is pretty critical to our strategy.

随着世界各国寻求去碳化并逐步淘汰煤炭，LNG将发挥极其重要的作用。因此，我们预见这一更广泛的主题将延续到2050年左右。我们认为LNG将是一种重要产品，持续寻求以竞争优势提供LNG供应对我们的战略至关重要。

As you know, the market today and these projects are underpinned by long-term sales contracts. We continue to progress those contracts in conjunction with the projects that we're developing. That continues to be the foundation for the LNG market.

如你所知，目前的市场和这些项目均由长期销售合同支撑。我们持续推进这些合同与我们正在开发的项目相结合，这一直是LNG市场的基础。

And so a majority of the production that we are looking to bring online will be underpinned by long-term contracts, which are linked to crude pricing. And that, I think, reflects really the demand that you're seeing from customers out there and the need for the continued gas. There's a portion that we're leaving uncontracted to support the work that we're doing with our trading organization and growing that business.

因此，我们计划投产的大部分产量将由与原油价格挂钩的长期合同支撑。我认为，这充分反映了市场上客户的需求以及对持续供应天然气的要求。同时，我们还会留出一部分未签约的产量，以支持我们交易部门的工作和业务增长。

And as that market grows, becomes more liquid. We continue to see opportunities to optimize around that market and extract some additional value through trading. And so we're making sure that we've got volume available for that.

随着该市场的增长和流动性增强，我们不断看到围绕该市场进行优化并通过交易提取额外价值的机会，因此我们确保有足够的产量供这一用途。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Bob Brackett of Bernstein Research.

下一个问题来自Bernstein Research的Bob Brackett。

Bob Brackett

A bit of a follow up on the LNG team, but more specifically around the FID cadence this year and next. We've got Papua LNG and PNG. You've got Rovuma and maybe even Coral North in Mozambique. Those are very different investments than adding another well in the Permian. What do you need to see in terms of maybe returns and certainty and maybe even local situation to give you the confidence to move forward on those multi-decadal assets?

这是对LNG团队的后续问题，更具体地说，关于今年和明年FID节奏的问题。我们有Papua LNG和PNG项目；你们还有Rovuma项目，甚至可能在莫桑比克有Coral North项目。这些投资与在二叠纪盆地增加一个油井截然不同。你们需要看到哪些方面的回报、确定性，甚至当地的情况，才能有信心推进这些跨几十年的资产？

Darren Woods

Good morning, Bob. Thanks for the question. You're right that each of these projects are somewhat unique.

早上好，Bob。谢谢你的提问。你说得对，每个项目都有其独特性。

However, what I would tell you is the constant here, in terms of how we're evaluating and deciding to go forward, is making sure that they're low cost of supply. So they're competitive supply sources in a market so that as we move forward, irrespective of how the market develops and the highs and the lows, that we have an advantaged cost of supply vis-à-vis the rest of the supply curve and some of our competitors. So that's a critical component.

然而，我想告诉你的是，在我们评估和决定推进时，一直坚持的标准是确保这些项目具有低供应成本。也就是说，它们必须是在市场上具有竞争力的供应来源，以便在市场如何发展、波动如何的情况下，我们都能保持相对于其他供应曲线和竞争对手的成本优势。这是一个关键要素。

And with that comes then an advantaged project and advantaged returns. And so that is fundamental to what we're looking at with each of these. And as Kathy mentioned earlier in the call, the project organization that we had brings a huge advantage in this space to help us drive these projects to the left-hand side of the cost of supply curve.

由此，我们才能获得优势项目和优势回报。这是我们评估每个项目的基本原则。正如Kathy在电话会议中早前提到的，我们的项目组织在这一领域提供了巨大优势，帮助我们将这些项目推向供应成本曲线的低端。

I'd also add that our technology organization that we've established and the focus that they're putting on in working with the project's organization is another advantage that helps kind of drive that to the left-hand side of the cost of supply curve. So that's, I would say, the primary variables at play here.

我还想补充的是，我们建立的技术团队以及他们与项目团队的紧密合作，也是推动项目向供应成本曲线低端迈进的另一优势。这可以说是影响这一决策的主要变量。

Obviously, we look at the stability of the area that we're in.

显然，我们还会关注我们所处地区的稳定性。

We've got a really long history of managing that exposure and risk. We feel pretty good around what we're seeing in the local communities that we're looking at and the steps that we can take to make sure that we can develop a long-term successful business there in a stable environment.

我们在管理这种风险方面有着悠久的历史。对于我们在当地社区看到的情况以及我们能够采取的措施，以确保在一个稳定环境中发展长期成功的业务，我们都充满信心。

So I think that piece of it, while certainly something that we need to manage and be aware of, isn't impacting, isn't the largest variable with respect to how we think about moving forward on these projects.

因此，我认为这一点虽然确实需要管理和关注，但对于我们如何推进这些项目来说，并不是最大的变量。

Bob Brackett

Very clear. So we should think 2025 for PNG and 26 for Rovuma still?

非常清楚。那么，我们仍然应该认为PNG在2025年，而Rovuma在2026年吗？

Darren Woods

We're working towards the 2026 timeframe in the Rovuma. In PNG, we're continuing to work through a target. Hopefully, we'll have something near the back end of this year for FID.

我们正努力将Rovuma推进至2026年的时间框架。对于PNG项目，我们仍在确定目标，希望今年年底附近能够作出FID决策.

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Neal Dingmann of Truist Securities.

下一个问题来自Truist Securities的Neal Dingmann。

Neal Dingmann

Darren, my question is around your long-term plan for, I believe you all have suggested about growing the earnings around $20 billion in cash flow by an additional $30 billion by 2030.

达伦，我的问题是关于你们的长期规划，我相信你们此前曾提到，到2030年将现有约200亿美元的盈利，现金流再增长300亿美元。

Neal Dingmann

I think that goes along with the U.S. production. I think doubling or severely increasing. I'm just wondering, in order to achieve this, I'm just wondering, what type of levels are you all assuming on broad strokes for annual capital spend and OpEx during this period in order to achieve it? I'm just wondering, like, directionally, what are you assuming?

我认为这与美国的产量有关，我认为这将是翻倍或大幅增加。为了实现这一目标，我想知道你们大致假设在此期间年度资本支出和运营支出会达到怎样的水平？从大方向上来说，你们的假设是什么？

Kathy Mikells

Sure. So, I'll start with capital because we gave guidance at our corporate plan. This coming year in 2025, we said we expect cash capex to be between $27 billion and $29 billion. And then, between 2026 and 2030, that number is $28 billion to $33 billion. And then, if you just think about expenses, obviously, we're growing, and we're growing across our business. That is going to have growth expense associated with it.

好的，我先从资本支出说起，因为在我们的企业计划中已经给出了指引。我们预计2025年现金资本支出将在270亿美元至290亿美元之间；而在2026年至2030年之间，这个数字将为280亿美元至330亿美元。至于费用方面，显然我们正在增长，而且在整个业务中都有增长，这必然会伴随增长性支出。

相当于现在每年的净利润。

And some of the offsets of that is driving significant structural cost reductions. And so, to date, since 2019, we're at a little over $12 billion in terms of structural cost reductions. And we said, between here and 2030, we expect to get that number up to $18 billion.

同时，一部分增长性支出会被大幅的结构性成本削减所抵消。自2019年以来，我们已实现超过120亿美元的结构性成本削减，并预计到2030年这一数字将达到180亿美元。

So, kind of an additional $6 billion in structural cost savings to help to offset, just the cost of that growth overall, and, obviously, a little bit of inflation. And the last thing I would say on that topic is, we have a global procurement organization, as we talked about, the Global Projects Organization, working pretty hard to make sure that we're bringing kind of the full scale and the manner in which we integrate our business kind of to bear as we procure the different products and services that we procure. So, they're doing quite a good job, as they look to help us hold down expenses.

也就是说，额外的60亿美元结构性成本节约将帮助抵消整体增长的成本以及一定程度上的通胀。关于这一点，我还要提的是，我们拥有一个全球采购组织，也就是全球项目组织，正努力确保我们在采购各类产品和服务时，能够充分整合业务规模和方式，从而帮助我们控制费用，他们在这方面表现得非常出色。

Darren Woods

Yes, and maybe just to build on Kathy's point, if you look at where we were in 2019, we challenged the organization to pay for the growth to make sure that, as we were growing and adding some of those additional expenses associated with new facilities, new production, that we offset that through our structural cost reductions.

是的，补充一下Kathy的观点，如果你回顾2019年的情况，我们曾要求组织部门以自有资金支持增长，确保在增长和增加新设施、新产量相关费用的同时，通过结构性成本削减来抵消这些额外支出。

If you look at where we were in 2019 and where we ended 2024, not only have we offset all the additional cost of the growth, we offset all the inflation and had a further reduction of about a billion and a half dollars. So, I think we've demonstrated the ability to both grow the business and grow the value while reducing cost.

如果比较2019年与2024年的情况，不仅我们抵消了所有增长带来的额外成本，还抵消了所有通胀，并额外实现了大约15亿美元的成本降低。因此，我认为我们已经展示了在增长业务和增加价值的同时降低成本的能力。

I think that is a very unique challenge and I think a great testament to the work that this organization has been doing to create value out there.

我认为这是一个非常独特的挑战，也是对我们组织为创造价值所做工作的极大肯定。

The only other point I would make is not only do we have really solid plans to 2030, the new markets and new businesses that we're starting don't really start to move the needle until we're beyond that 2030 timeframe.

我还想补充的一点是，不仅我们对2030年的规划非常稳固，我们正在启动的新市场和新业务实际上要到2030年之后才能开始发挥显著作用。

And so, what I'm excited about is not only the fidelity that we have in terms of how we get to 2030 and that 2030 objective that we've talked about, but also that we've established a foundation that gives us a platform for growing well into the future in markets that are decoupled from the commodity price cycle. That's pretty exciting for our company.

因此，我感到兴奋的不仅在于我们如何实现2030目标的可靠性，更在于我们已经建立了一个基础，为我们在与商品价格周期脱钩的市场中持续增长提供了平台。这对我们公司来说非常令人振奋。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

下一个问题来自Wells Fargo的Roger Read。

Roger Read

Yeah. Good morning. Maybe to take a slightly different tack here on some of the policy changes, like you mentioned at the beginning of the call, Darren, some favorable changes.

是的，早上好。也许我们可以换个角度谈谈一些政策变化，就像你在电话开始时提到的，达伦，一些有利的变化。

One of the other ones that's percolating a little bit in the executive order was for the EPA to take a look at the endangerment finding on CO2. And I know there's a lot of ways CO2 is approached in terms of what's in the IRA and stuff. But if we were to see a change in federal government regulations on CO2, how do you think about that affecting some of the decisions you're making on the renewable and low carbon investment approaches here?

另一个在行政命令中有所提及的是要求EPA重新审视关于CO2的危害认定。我知道在《降低通胀法案》等文件中，CO2的处理方式有很多种。如果联邦政府对CO2的规定发生变化，你认为这会如何影响你们在可再生能源和低碳投资策略方面所做出的决策？

Darren Woods

Yea. Good morning, Roger. Thanks for the question.

是的，早上好，Roger。谢谢你的提问。

So let me just start with the fundamentals of how we think about this stuff, because our work and the low carbon solutions business is reflective of not any specific policy that's existing. In fact, we put that business together and started it well in advance of the IRA and some of the policy that the Biden administration brought forward. We focused instead on what we recognize as a need to continue to supply the energy sources and products that the world desperately needs to grow and for people's prosperity to improve, but at the same time reduce emissions.

那么让我先谈谈我们如何看待这些问题的基本原则，因为我们的工作以及低碳解决方案业务，并不是依赖于现有的某一特定政策。实际上，我们早在《降低通胀法案》出台以及拜登政府提出相关政策之前，就已经组建并启动了这项业务。我们更关注于满足全球迫切需要的能源和产品供应，以促进经济增长和改善人们的生活水平，同时降低排放的必要性。

And I would say as a company, we recognize the need for society to reduce emissions in a thoughtful, constructive way. And what we're trying to do is offer up a skill set and a capability set that can help accomplish that. That's the long-term objective here.

我想说，作为一家公司，我们认识到社会需要以深思熟虑、建设性的方式减少排放。我们所努力做的，就是提供一套技能和能力，帮助实现这一目标。这就是我们的长期目标。

And putting in place the foundations for an approach that makes sense, that leverages our key competitive advantages and affordably reduces emissions while we continue to meet the needs for our products is part of the strategy. And frankly, we're demonstrating the ability to do that and to pay for it and to generate returns at the same time. And so this equation is, we believe, a real thing in that people should be focused on doing it all. And that's what we're trying to do. So I would say that's the foundation. That's how we think about it.

建立一套合理的方法论，利用我们的核心竞争优势，在满足产品需求的同时以经济实惠的方式减少排放，是我们战略的一部分。坦率地说，我们正展示出既能做到这一点，又能为之付费并产生回报的能力。因此，我们相信这一模式是真实可行的，大家应当全力以赴地推进这项工作。这就是我们的基础，也是我们思考问题的方式。

We recognize the demand for the reduction and the intensity of the focus on that may vary as you move across different political regimes and move around the world, and we'll move up and down with time. But the fundamentals, we believe, are there. And that's what we're focused on is the long-term game here and making sure that what we bring forward in terms of a solution is cost-efficient and very effective.

我们认识到，对排放减少的需求以及关注的强度可能会因不同政治体制和地区而有所不同，且会随着时间变化而波动。但我们相信基本原则始终存在。我们关注的是长期战略，并确保我们提供的解决方案既具成本效益又非常高效。

And that's how we're looking at it. And frankly, from what we've seen so far, I think we've got an advantage with respect to where we're at in looking at those opportunities. And we've got an advantage with our capabilities and with the facilities that we've brought on so far and the ones that we're developing. So we feel good about that.

这就是我们的看法。坦率地说，从目前的表现来看，我们在把握这些机会方面具有优势，无论是我们的能力还是现有及正在开发的设施，都为我们带来了竞争优势，因此我们对此充满信心.

Kathy Mikells

Yes. And the only thing I would add is, obviously, the new administration is focused on trying to streamline regulation and looking at how that can open things up for business. When we look at, just as an example, looking to permanently sequester CO2, getting that permitting has been a long process.

是的。我唯一要补充的是，显然，新政府正致力于简化监管，探索如何为企业创造更多机遇。以永久封存CO2为例，获取相关许可一直是一个漫长的过程。

And so it's just one area of many that you can look at across the industry to say, hey, what things can be done to ease regulation so that business can get done more quickly, projects can get put in place more quickly. And so we look forward to continuing to discuss those things with the new administration.

因此，在整个行业中，有很多领域可以探讨，看看哪些措施可以放宽监管，使企业更快地完成业务、项目能够更快地落地。我们期待与新政府继续讨论这些问题。

Darren Woods

Yes. The good news, Roger, is we've got flexibility here so we can adjust as we move forward and respond to some of the changes that we see.

是的，Roger，好消息是我们在这方面具有灵活性，能够在前进过程中根据观察到的一些变化进行调整.

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.

下一个问题来自Scotiabank的Paul Cheng。

Paul Cheng

Darren, you guys clearly have an expertise in the deep water in your success, whether, say, two decades ago in Angola or recently in Ghana. But one deep water area that you are noticeably missing is the Gulf of Mexico basin. It's pretty small.

达伦，你们显然在深水领域拥有丰富经验，无论是二十年前在安哥拉，还是近期在加纳取得的成功。但你们明显缺少的一个深水区域是墨西哥湾盆地，该区域规模相对较小。

I'm trying to understand that. Is it because when you guys are looking at that, you don't like about the cost structure there or you don't like about the regulatory environment or you don't like about the geologies? And as such that with the new administration they approach there, is that going to change the way that how you look at that basin?

我想了解其中原因。是因为在你们考察那里时，不喜欢那里的成本结构，还是不喜欢那里的监管环境，或者不喜欢那里的地质条件？因此，随着新政府对该区域的态度改变，这会不会改变你们对该盆地的看法？

Darren Woods

Yes. Good morning, Paul. Thanks for the question. You're right that in terms of if you look around the world, our presence in the Gulf of Mexico is more limited. And I would just tell you it's a function of evaluating the opportunities there and the cost of supply. You touched on a couple of the factors.

是的。早上好，Paul。谢谢你的提问。你说得对，放眼全球，我们在墨西哥湾的存在确实比较有限。我想告诉你，这主要取决于对那里的机遇和供应成本的评估。你提到了其中几个因素。

One is the cost of supply and the cost to develop there in the Gulf of Mexico. You talked about the geology. The geology is tough as well, which obviously impacts the cost.

其中一个因素是墨西哥湾的供应成本和开发成本。你提到了地质条件，而那里的地质条件也十分严峻，这显然会影响成本。

And so we look at all those factors. We are continuing to evaluate opportunities. And if the Trump administration opens up new areas for exploration, we will be in there with the rest of industry evaluating to see if we think there's an opportunity to cost effectively develop those resources.

因此，我们会综合考虑所有这些因素。我们仍在持续评估各种机遇。如果特朗普政府开放新的勘探区域，我们将与行业其他公司一道评估是否存在以低成本有效开发这些资源的机会。

But I'll come back to. And so that's the lens we put across all of the opportunities. The Gulf of Mexico is no better off, no worse off than anything else that we're looking at.

但我想再强调一下，这就是我们审视所有机遇的视角。墨西哥湾并不比我们关注的其他区域更有优势，也没有明显劣势。

But it's really the criteria of cost-effective supply being on the low end of the cost of supply curve, making sure that we can develop those in an advantaged way that then brings advantaged returns into the portfolio. And that's the criteria that we're using. And if we find something in the Gulf of Mexico that we convince ourselves will allow us to do that, we'll develop it.

但关键在于，是否能以低供应成本曲线的低端实现低成本供应，确保我们以优势方式开发这些资源，从而为资产组合带来优势回报。这就是我们所采用的标准。如果我们在墨西哥湾发现某个项目能够让我们确信可以做到这一点，我们就会进行开发。

If we don't, we'll continue to find and look for those opportunities in other parts of the world. We're pretty agnostic with respect to location, but we're a lot more focused on the characteristics and the ability to develop advantaged barrels.

如果不能，我们将继续在全球其他地区寻找这样的机遇。我们对地点持中立态度，但更关注的是资源特性以及能否以优势方式开发出高效益的油桶。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler.

下一个问题来自Piper Sandler的Ryan Todd。

Ryan Todd

Thanks. Maybe one on carbon capture. You have four decent sized projects set to start up over the next 24 months on your list.

谢谢。也许问一下碳捕集方面的问题。你们名单上有四个规模相当不错的项目计划在未来24个月内启动。

Ryan Todd

I know in the past you've talked about some of the challenges of effectively creating a new industry that doesn't currently exist, particularly on the commercial side. Can you maybe give some color as to how the commercial side of that business has evolved, what challenges remain, including maybe on the regulatory support side, and maybe what contribution you expect to see over the next couple of years out of the CCS business?

我知道过去你们曾谈到建立一个当前并不存在的新产业，尤其是在商业领域中所面临的一些挑战。你能否介绍一下这一业务的商业方面是如何演变的，目前仍存在哪些挑战，包括可能在监管支持方面的挑战，以及你预计在未来几年中，CCS业务会带来怎样的贡献？

Darren Woods

Yes. Thanks, Ryan. I think a lot has happened in this space over time, and I think probably the most important development is there's been a real shakeout between people who are out there talking about a carbon capture and storage business and people who are actually capable of doing it.

是的，谢谢你，Ryan。我认为随着时间的推移，这一领域已经发生了很多变化，我认为最重要的发展可能是，在那些只会谈论碳捕集与储存业务的人与真正有能力执行这一业务的人之间，已经出现了明显的分化。

And that has, I think, created a lot more clarity, particularly from a customer standpoint in terms of where they need to go to find companies that can deliver on this. We are, as you mentioned, uniquely positioned here. We've got the world's only end-to-end capture, transport, and storage system.

我认为这使得市场变得更加明朗，特别是从客户的角度来看，他们现在更清楚该去哪里寻找能够实现这一目标的公司。正如你所提到的，我们在这方面具有独特优势。我们拥有全球唯一的端到端捕集、运输和储存系统。

And so that puts us in a unique position to work with customers to help them decarbonize. And so I think those conversations continue to happen. There is a continued interest. We've got a fairly healthy sales pipeline that we're working with customers on. So I like how that's developed. I like our position.

这使我们处于一个独特的位置，可以与客户合作，帮助他们实现脱碳。因此，我认为相关讨论仍在持续进行，市场对这一领域持续保持兴趣。我们与客户合作的销售渠道相当健康，我对这一发展以及我们的市场地位感到满意。

We continue to do a lot of work around that system that we've built and making sure that, unlike a lot of companies in this space that are limited to a single site, we've got a system and we're developing that system so that we've got a lot of optionality and take advantage of storage sites all along that pipeline. And so we feel good about having a very robust system that we can then ensure customers that, when we commit to capture their CO2 and store it, that we can effectively do that and manage any of the variables that kind of come along the pike. And so that's how we're looking at it.

我们持续在已经建立的系统上进行大量工作，并确保不同于许多只能依赖单一站点的公司，我们拥有并正在不断完善这一系统，从而拥有更多选择，并在整个流程中充分利用各个储存站点。因此，我们对拥有一个非常强健的系统充满信心，这使我们能向客户保证，当我们承诺捕集并储存他们的CO2时，我们能够有效地实现这一目标，并管理过程中可能出现的各种变量。这就是我们的思考方式。

We've got pretty aggressive growth plans in this space. But again, all dependent upon customer interest and customers' willingness to engage in long-term contracts. And so that's what we're continuing to work on. Like I said, a lot of interest in this space, given our unique abilities.

我们在这一领域有相当积极的增长计划。但这仍然取决于客户的兴趣和他们签订长期合同的意愿，所以这正是我们持续努力的方向。正如我所说，鉴于我们的独特能力，这一领域的兴趣非常浓厚。

Kathy Mikells

凯茜·米克尔斯

Yeah. And what we said back at the corporate plan is, when we look at our low-carbon solutions business in its entirety, right, so obviously the CCS opportunities you just talked about, but hydrogen, lithium, everything all together, we would see $2 billion in earnings growth kind of between now and 2030. Obviously, that'll come as we pick up momentum and start to implement the projects that we've been talking about.

是的。正如我们在企业计划中所说，当我们整体看待低碳解决方案业务时，不仅包括你刚刚提到的CCS机会，还有氢、锂等各方面，我们预计到2030年将实现约20亿美元的盈利增长。显然，这将在我们加快步伐并开始实施所讨论的项目后逐步实现。

Operator

主持人

The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria of Royal Bank of Canada.

下一个问题来自加拿大皇家银行的Biraj Borkhataria。

Biraj Borkhataria

I just wanted to get some perspective on the chemicals market. You show a helpful slide every quarter on the margins related to a 10-year average. Obviously, the chems margin has been well below that very consistently. So do you see any signs of green shoots in that space, either regionally or product-wise, that you can talk about?

我想了解一下化工市场的情况。你们每个季度都会展示一张关于化工利润率与10年平均水平对比的有用幻灯片。显然，化工的利润率一直明显低于这一水平。你们是否看到在该领域，无论是区域上还是产品上，都有任何初露端倪的迹象，可以谈一谈吗？

And as a quick follow-on to that separately, are you able to disclose your reserve replacement ratio for the year, both total and organic? Thank you.

另外，作为一个后续问题，你们能否披露今年的储量替代率（包括总储量和有机储量）？谢谢。

Darren Woods

Yes. Good morning, Biraj. I'll start with that and see if Kathy has anything she wants to add. But the margins that we show and the markers that we show are kind of an industry perspective with respect to kind of the distribution of the chemical business globally around the world and the average margin that you see there. We're advantaged versus that with respect to our facilities. And so as you look across the world, I'd say the most advantaged region today is North America, where, as we've got a fairly large footprint.

好的。早上好，Biraj。我先回答这个问题，再看看凯茜是否有补充。我们展示的利润率和指标，主要是从全球化工业务分布和平均利润率的行业视角来看。我们的设施在这方面具有优势。因此，从全球来看，我认为目前最具优势的区域是北美，因为我们在那里拥有相当大的布局。

So we've been, despite, I'd say, very challenging conditions, I think we've been well-positioned there and very proud of the work that our folks in the chemical business have been doing to optimize and make sure that in this environment they continue to deliver earnings. The demand in chemicals is actually very strong, record levels of demand. The challenge has obviously been in the supply side of the equation.

尽管条件非常严峻，我认为我们在那里依然占据有利地位，并且我们对化工业务团队为优化运营、确保在这种环境下持续创造盈利所做的工作感到非常自豪。化工产品的需求实际上非常强劲，创下了历史新高。挑战显然在于供应端。

I think in terms of a green shoot comment, how do you balance supply and demand? I mean, every facility out there has to kind of figure out where they're at in the cost of supply and whether they can survive or not. I think you're seeing more and more companies that are disadvantaged with respect to their facilities evaluate their business and ability to be successful in the kind of market that we're in.

至于“初露绿芽”的评论，我认为关键在于如何平衡供需关系。毕竟，每个工厂都必须找出自己在供应成本上的定位，以及是否能够生存下去。我认为你会看到越来越多那些设施处于劣势的公司在评估自身的业务和在当前市场中取得成功的能力。

The way I look at this at a macro level, these cycles are necessary. We've got to go through the lows to make sure that the industry continues to focus on efficiency and effectiveness and continuing the high grading of the broader overall industry portfolio. Our job, obviously, is to make sure that our facilities are on the high end of that high grading, and we feel really good about where we've been there.

从宏观层面看，我认为这些周期是必要的。我们必须经历低谷，以确保整个行业继续专注于提高效率和效果，不断优化整个行业的资产组合。
我们的任务显然是确保我们的设施处于这些高标准中的顶尖水平，我们对目前的状况非常有信心。

低谷本身是有价值的。

So I think that's going to continue to happen. I think from my perspective, this challenge here is not unlike the challenges we've seen in the past and, frankly, very much in line with our philosophy of you build this business to be successful in the bottom of the cycle, and then you take the gravy that comes with the top of the cycle. And so we feel good about our ability to be successful even in these bottom of the cycle conditions.

我认为这种情况将会继续。就我而言，这一挑战与我们过去所见的挑战并无不同，坦率地说，也非常符合我们的理念：在周期低谷时打造成功的业务，然后在周期高峰时享受丰厚回报。因此，我们对即便在周期低谷条件下也能取得成功充满信心。

Kathy Mikells

凯茜·米克尔斯

The only thing I'd add is if you look at the projects we're bringing online, those will continue to help us to be advantaged, whether it's the China One chemical complex that's coming online, which is really focused on performance chemicals, right, the upgrade we're doing overall in our Singapore facility, kind of resid upgrade on the margin, helps us. And then, obviously, bringing on more circular plastics basically helps us in terms of advanced recycling.

我唯一要补充的是，如果你关注我们即将上线的项目，这些项目将持续帮助我们保持竞争优势。无论是即将上线的中国一号化工综合体——主要专注于高性能化学品，还是我们在新加坡工厂进行的整体升级（类似于边际上对残油的升级），都会对我们有所帮助。当然，增加循环塑料的产能也在先进回收方面对我们起到了推动作用。

So all the projects we have will continue to well position the company, and we've been very focused on ensuring that we're a low-cost supplier, which makes us resilient even in these difficult market conditions.

因此，我们所有的项目将持续为公司带来有利地位，我们一直非常注重确保我们是低成本供应商，这使得我们即便在困难的市场环境中也具有韧性。

Biraj Borkhataria

Thanks. Anything on the reserve replacement ratio?

谢谢。关于储量替代率，有什么信息吗？

Kathy Mikells

凯茜·米克尔斯

No, we don't really consider that to be particularly informative of where the company is going.

不，我们认为这项指标并不能特别准确地反映公司的发展方向。

Operator

主持人

We have time for one more question. Our final question will be from Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen.

我们还有时间回答最后一个问题。最后一个问题来自TD Cowen的Jason Gabelman。

Jason Gabelman

I wanted to ask a question on Slide 6, where you lay out all the projects. And Doug alluded to it earlier. It seems like you're missing a couple of projects that are starting up here, TCO, the Permian pipeline project. We would have thought the overall potential earnings number from all the projects combined are closer to $5 billion, including those two projects. So, first, is that correct? And, second, is there any major difference you see between the earnings contribution of these projects and the cash flow contribution? Thanks.

我想就第6页中列出的所有项目提个问题。Doug之前也提到过这一点。看起来你们遗漏了一两个正在启动的项目，比如TCO和二叠纪管道项目。我们原本认为，所有项目合计的潜在盈利总额应该更接近50亿美元，包括这两个项目。所以，首先，这是正确的吗？其次，你们是否认为这些项目的盈利贡献与现金流贡献之间存在任何重大差异？谢谢。

Kathy Mikells

Yes. So, I'm happy to take that. We tended to focus here on the projects where we're the operator, as opposed to TCO, where we're not the operator. Obviously, we will get some benefit from that, but we did not focus on projects that we're not the operator.

是的。我很乐意回答这个问题。我们主要关注的是我们作为运营者的项目，而对于TCO那种我们不是运营者的项目，我们虽然会获得一些好处，但并未作为重点关注对象。

We also focused on projects that are newly starting up, as opposed to projects like the Permian crude venture that is already underway. And so, I would say, yes, we clearly continue to get incremental benefits from the projects that are already underway, that the company started up pre-2025. And, obviously, to the extent that we're participating in an arrangement where somebody else is the operator and projects are starting up, we will get the benefits from those things.

我们还专注于那些新启动的项目，而不是像二叠纪原油项目那样已经在进行中的项目。所以，我会说，我们显然持续从公司在2025年前启动的项目中获得增量收益。并且，显然，对于那些我们参与但由他人运营的项目，我们也会从中受益。

Darren Woods

And I would add, in terms of those other projects that you referenced, obviously, they're baked into our plans and the volumes that we shared as part of the Corporate Plan Outlook includes all elements of the projects that are coming on.

此外，我还要补充一点，就你提到的其他项目而言，它们显然已经被纳入我们的计划中，而我们在企业计划展望中分享的产量数据包含了所有即将上线项目的各个部分。

Jason Gabelman

Great. And any difference between earnings and cash flow contribution from these projects? Any major difference?

很好。那么这些项目的盈利贡献与现金流贡献之间有何不同？是否存在重大差异？

Kathy Mikells

No. All I would say is, typically on projects generally, there's a little bit of a lag on earnings relative to cash flow.

没有。我要说的是，通常情况下，项目的盈利相对于现金流会有一些滞后。

Jim Chapman

All right, Jason. Thanks. And thanks, everybody, for joining this call and for your questions. We'll post the transcript of this call to the Investor section of our Web site early next week. And have a nice weekend. That concludes today's call.

好的，Jason，谢谢你。同时也感谢各位参加本次电话会议并提出问题。我们将在下周初将本次电话会议的文字记录发布到我们网站的投资者栏目。祝大家周末愉快。这就结束了今天的电话会议.

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