2025-03-20 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Investor Meeting with Management

Operator

接线员

Good morning, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's Quarterly Investor Meeting with Management. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

早上好，欢迎参加亚瑟·J·加拉格尔公司与管理层的季度投资者会议。[操作员说明] 今天的通话正在录音。如果您有任何异议，可以现在断开连接。

Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

本次电话会议期间发表的某些评论，包括对问题的回答，可能构成证券法含义内的前瞻性陈述。公司不承担任何义务更新本次电话会议上提供的信息或前瞻性陈述。这些前瞻性陈述受到风险和不确定性的影响，可能导致实际结果出现重大差异。

Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and Risk Factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties. In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call involve other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

有关此类风险和不确定性的更多详细信息，请参阅公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的有关前瞻性陈述和风险因素部分的信息。此外，关于本次电话会议中讨论的非公认会计原则（non-GAAP）衡量标准的调节以及涉及这些衡量标准的其他信息，请参阅公司网站投资者关系部分中的收益发布和其他材料。

It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

现在我荣幸地介绍亚瑟·J·加拉格尔公司董事长兼首席执行官小 J. 帕特里克·加拉格尔。加拉格尔先生，您可以开始了。

J. Gallagher Chairman & CEO

J. 加拉格尔董事长兼首席执行官

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our investor meeting today. For those that are newer to Gallagher and unfamiliar with these quarterly meetings, our objective is to provide the investment community an opportunity to hear from our business leaders, get insights into our operations and provide some data points on performance outside of the busy earnings season.

谢谢你，罗布。大家早上好，感谢大家今天参加我们的投资者会议。对于那些刚接触加拉格尔并且不熟悉这些季度会议的人来说，我们的目标是为投资界提供一个机会，听取我们业务领导者的意见，深入了解我们的运营情况，并在繁忙的财报季之外提供一些业绩数据点。

Let me walk you through the format of today's meeting. I'll start by covering Gallagher's competitive position, the insurance market backdrop and our organic expectations for full year '25. Then I'll hand the call over to members of the management team. Each will speak for about 10 minutes providing background information in our businesses, insights into various markets and cover relevant growth and operating initiatives. Our leaders will also give you some indications on how they are seeing organic growth for the first quarter of the year. Then Doug Howell, our CFO, will pull all the commentary together and provide you with a more detailed first quarter and full year outlook.

我来给大家介绍一下今天会议的流程。我将首先介绍加拉格尔的竞争地位、保险市场背景以及我们对 25 年全年的有机增长预期。然后我会把电话交给管理团队的成员。每人将发言约 10 分钟，提供我们业务的背景信息，对各个市场的见解，并涵盖相关的增长和运营举措。我们的领导者还将就他们如何看待今年第一季度的有机增长给出一些指示。然后，我们的首席财务官道格·豪厄尔将汇总所有评论，并为您提供更详细的第一季度和全年展望。

Our prepared remarks should last around an hour. After that, we will open up the line to the group dialed in for questions and answers. Before I dive into my more typical comments, let me address the pending acquisition of AssuredPartners. We remain extremely excited about the AssuredPartners acquisition. The people are just fantastic. And we continue to believe the combination with Gallagher is very compelling strategically, culturally and financially. As we previously disclosed, we received a second request from the Department of Justice related to our HSR filing. While we were surprised that we received a second request, they are fairly common for larger transactions like AssuredPartners. We're actively working to respond and we expect the deal will close in the second half of 2025.

我们准备好的发言稿大约会持续一个小时。之后，我们将开放电话线路，供拨入的参会者提问和回答。在我开始更典型的评论之前，让我先谈谈即将进行的对 AssuredPartners 的收购。我们对收购 AssuredPartners 仍然感到非常兴奋。那里的人们非常棒。我们继续相信，与加拉格尔的合并在战略上、文化上和财务上都非常有吸引力。正如我们之前披露的，我们收到了司法部关于我们 HSR 申报的第二次问询。虽然我们对收到第二次问询感到惊讶，但这对于像 AssuredPartners 这样的大型交易来说是相当普遍的。我们正在积极努力回应，预计交易将在 2025 年下半年完成。

Moving back to my high level comments. I always like to start these meetings outlining our value creation strategy. It's based on 4 key objectives, which those that have followed us for a while, and have not changed for many years. Number one, grow organically. Number two, grow through mergers and acquisitions; number three, increase our productivity, raise our quality; and number four, promote our culture. Our strategy has tried and tested through economic cycles, election cycles, interest rate cycles and pricing cycles, and there are no plans to alter this strategy. In fact, our strategy has led to total shareholder returns as of December 31 of 73%, 217% and 633% over the preceding 3, 5 and 10-year periods, respectively. And all of these returns have outpaced the S&P 500 and the XLF.

回到我的宏观评论。我总是喜欢在这些会议开始时概述我们的价值创造战略。它基于 4 个关键目标，那些关注我们一段时间的人会知道，这些目标多年来没有改变。第一，有机增长。第二，通过并购实现增长；第三，提高我们的生产力，提升我们的质量；第四，推广我们的文化。我们的战略经受住了经济周期、选举周期、利率周期和定价周期的考验，并且没有改变这一战略的计划。事实上，截至 12 月 31 日，我们的战略在过去 3 年、5 年和 10 年分别带来了 73%、217% 和 633% 的股东总回报。所有这些回报都超过了标准普尔 500 指数和 XLF 金融板块指数。

So with our vast, near- and long-term growth opportunities, further improvements in productivity and quality in front of us, and a continued focus on our bedrock Gallagher culture, we're extremely well positioned to deliver great returns for our shareholders. Let me dive deeper into our organic revenues. Gallagher has client capabilities in approximately 130 countries, 56,000 employees and the ability to provide professional license solutions across insurance, reinsurance, human capital and the claims management space. We are in a position of strength. We have industry-leading talent, deep expertise, a recognized brand and a consistent global approach to sales and client service.

因此，凭借我们广阔的近期和长期增长机会，我们面前生产力和质量的进一步提高，以及对我们基石加拉格尔文化的持续关注，我们处于非常有利的地位，可以为我们的股东带来丰厚的回报。让我更深入地探讨一下我们的有机收入。加拉格尔在约 130 个国家拥有客户服务能力，拥有 56,000 名员工，并有能力在保险、再保险、人力资本和索赔管理领域提供专业的许可解决方案。我们处于优势地位。我们拥有行业领先的人才、深厚的专业知识、公认的品牌以及一致的全球销售和客户服务方法。

As I look across geographies, industry verticals and product offerings, the future organic growth opportunity for Gallagher remains enormous. Insurance is the oxygen of commerce. It touches just about everything in our daily lives, whether you're a restaurant owner or a patron, shipping goods via air, railroad or cargo ship, running home or driving a car, you need insurance to do any of these activities.

纵观各个地区、行业垂直领域和产品供应，加拉格尔未来的有机增长机会仍然是巨大的。保险是商业的氧气。它几乎触及我们日常生活中的方方面面，无论您是餐馆老板还是顾客，通过空运、铁路或货船运输货物，管理房屋还是驾驶汽车，您都需要保险才能进行任何这些活动。

And that the market today is large and growing in fact, the Swiss Re Institute estimates there is more than $7 trillion of annual insurance premiums globally, $4 trillion alone in non-life premium and each year these premiums are growing due to economic expansion, emerging risks and exposures, increasing insurance demand and new coverages by those that already buy insurance. Gallagher can grow in just about any environment and the team will lay out why we believe we can compete, win and grow faster than the industry.

事实上，今天的市场规模庞大且在不断增长，瑞士再保险研究所估计全球每年有超过 7 万亿美元的保险费，仅非寿险保费就有 4 万亿美元，而且由于经济扩张、新兴风险和敞口、保险需求增加以及现有投保人购买新险种，这些保费每年都在增长。加拉格尔几乎可以在任何环境下实现增长，我们的团队将阐述我们为什么相信我们能够比行业更快地竞争、获胜和增长。

We are also growing and creating long-term value for shareholders through mergers and acquisitions. Since the beginning of 2020, we've acquired more than $2.7 billion of pro forma annualized revenues, and the future opportunity is also immense. That's because insurance distribution remains very, very fragmented across the U.S. and the rest of the globe. It's estimated there are tens of thousands of agencies and brokerage firms across our 5 major geographies including 30,000 in the U.S. alone according to a leading consulting firm.

我们还通过并购为股东创造长期价值并实现增长。自 2020 年初以来，我们已收购了超过 27 亿美元的备考年化收入，未来的机会也是巨大的。这是因为保险分销在美国和全球其他地区仍然非常非常分散。据一家领先的咨询公司估计，在我们 5 个主要地区有数万家代理机构和经纪公司，仅美国就有 3 万家。

进展缓慢的行业。

Most of these firms have less than $25 million of annual revenue and have terrific routes in their local communities. So when they sell and join Gallagher, not only do we get revenue and profit, but more importantly, we get new talented entrepreneurs, their brains and capabilities. And these merger partners get immediate access to our niche experts, our extensive data and analytics, our thought leadership, our brand, our centers of excellence and all of our tools and capabilities on their desk overnight which creates immediate value for their clients, gives them a terrific new story for prospects and it offers enhanced career opportunities for their employees. The real winners in our merger and activity -- merger and acquisition activity are the clients.

这些公司中的大多数年收入不到 2500 万美元，并且在当地社区拥有良好的渠道。因此，当他们出售并加入加拉格尔时，我们不仅获得了收入和利润，更重要的是，我们获得了新的有才华的企业家、他们的智慧和能力。这些合并伙伴可以立即接触到我们的利基专家、我们广泛的数据和分析、我们的思想领导力、我们的品牌、我们的卓越中心以及我们所有的工具和能力，这些都可以在一夜之间出现在他们的办公桌上，从而为他们的客户创造即时价值，为潜在客户提供一个极好的新故事，并为他们的员工提供更好的职业发展机会。我们合并和收购活动中真正的赢家是客户。

They get more insights, better advice and on top of that better service. We completed 48 mergers during '24, and so far this year, we've completed 10 mergers and announced the acquisition of Woodruff Sawyer. Our global pipeline of opportunities with term sheets signed, delivered or being prepared, includes 45 potential mergers with more than $400 million of annualized revenue. So the pipeline is very strong and full of tuck-in M&A opportunities around the globe that could contribute to our long-term strategic plans.

他们获得更多的见解、更好的建议，最重要的是更好的服务。我们在 24 年完成了 48 项合并，今年到目前为止，我们已经完成了 10 项合并，并宣布收购 Woodruff Sawyer。我们已签署、已交付或正在准备的投资意向书的全球机会储备包括 45 项潜在合并，年化收入超过 4 亿美元。因此，储备非常强劲，并且充满了全球范围内的补强型并购机会，这些机会可能有助于我们的长期战略计划。

The third piece of our shareholder value creation strategy is to increase our productivity and raise our quality. We have developed a cohesive sales and service process, utilizing common systems, which allows us to leverage the incredible amount of data we have. You'll hear from our leaders today that the value we provide to clients continues to increase as we use our data and technology to build innovative tools, deliver unique insights and develop new products.

我们股东价值创造战略的第三部分是提高我们的生产力和提升我们的质量。我们开发了一个有凝聚力的销售和服务流程，利用通用系统，这使我们能够利用我们拥有的大量数据。您今天将从我们的领导者那里听到，随着我们利用数据和技术构建创新工具、提供独特的见解和开发新产品，我们为客户提供的价值持续增加。

And don't forget, we are always looking for new ways to utilize our Gallagher Centers of Excellence. It's not easy to build a 13-person insurance services operation. It's taken us nearly 2 decades. And with the robust platform built, I believe we can more quickly embrace digitalization, implement AI and find ways to further automate various service and support functions throughout our businesses.

别忘了，我们一直在寻找新的方法来利用我们的加拉格尔卓越中心。建立一个拥有 13 名员工的保险服务运营团队并非易事。这花费了我们近二十年的时间。随着稳健平台的建立，我相信我们可以更快地拥抱数字化、实施人工智能，并找到进一步自动化我们各项业务中各种服务和支持功能的方法。

So while we have a long history of operational excellence, we still see the potential for further margin expansion in both our brokerage and risk management segments over the long run. Our greatest asset is our people. But our biggest differentiator is our bedrock culture. It's a culture grounded doing what's best for clients each and every day, guided by the Gallagher Way, and I believe our culture is unstoppable.

因此，虽然我们拥有悠久的卓越运营历史，但从长远来看，我们仍然看到我们的经纪和风险管理部门有进一步扩大利润率的潜力。我们最大的资产是我们的员工。但我们最大的差异化因素是我们坚如磐石的文化。这是一种以每天为客户做到最好为基础的文化，以加拉格尔之道为指导，我相信我们的文化是不可阻挡的。

Okay. Moving to an overview of the insurance market, a few observations from a global perspective. We continue to see broad-based renewal premium increases that's both rate and exposure combined, across all of our major geographies and most product lines. In our view, carriers continue to behave rationally and are looking to grow in lines where there is an acceptable return while seeking rate increases where it's most needed to generate an underwriting profit.

好的。接下来概述一下保险市场，从全球视角来看有几点观察。我们继续看到所有主要地区和大多数产品线的续保保费普遍上涨，这是费率和风险敞口共同作用的结果。在我们看来，保险公司继续理性行事，并寻求在有可接受回报的业务领域实现增长，同时在最需要提高费率以产生承保利润的领域寻求费率上涨。

Take casualty, we're seeing renewal premiums grew higher. First quarter umbrella, general liability and commercial auto renewal premium increases are up more than 7% globally and are up 8% in the U.S., continuing the trends we saw through '24. And with social inflation, continued carrier reserve additions, medical cost increases and litigation financing, we think further rate increases are to come in casualty.

以意外险为例，我们看到续保保费有所上涨。第一季度，伞式责任险、一般责任险和商业车险的续保保费在全球范围内上涨超过 7%，在美国上涨 8%，延续了我们在 24 年看到的趋势。考虑到社会通货膨胀、保险公司持续增加准备金、医疗成本上涨以及诉讼融资等因素，我们认为意外险的费率还会进一步上涨。

Shifting to property lines. First quarter premiums are down about 2%, which is similar in the U.S. and internationally. We've not seen much market reaction to the California wildfires. However, with insured loss estimates in the $30 billion to $40 billion range, an active severe convective storm or hurricane season could easily change the market dynamics. So in total, primary insurance renewal premium increases so far in the first quarter are up 4%.

转向财产险。第一季度保费下降约 2%，这在美国和国际上情况类似。我们尚未看到市场对加州野火做出太大反应。然而，鉴于保险损失估计在 300 亿至 400 亿美元之间，活跃的强对流风暴或飓风季节很容易改变市场动态。因此，总的来说，第一季度迄今为止，主要保险的续保保费上涨了 4%。

February renewal premium increases did come in a bit lower than January due to business mix that is less heavily weighted towards casualty lines. With that said, March renewal premiums are trending similar to January and fourth quarter of '24. So it really hasn't been much change in the market over the past 6 weeks. As for the reinsurance market, not much to report following January renewals, overall, reinsurance capacity continues be adequate to meet rising demand for cover.

由于业务组合中意外险的权重较低，2 月份的续保保费增幅确实略低于 1 月份。话虽如此，3 月份的续保保费趋势与 1 月份和 24 年第四季度相似。因此，过去 6 周市场确实没有太大变化。至于再保险市场，继 1 月份续保之后没有什么太多可报告的，总体而言，再保险承保能力继续足以满足日益增长的承保需求。

Moving to our view of economic conditions. The data points we typically track and discuss aren't indicating a broad slowdown. First, our daily revenue indications from audits, endorsements and cancellations, we are still seeing midterm policy adjustments in positive territory indicating continued solid business activity. Second, the number of job openings in the U.S. is still greater than the number of people looking for work in medical costs are inflating. So employers are still looking for ways to grow their workforce and control their benefits costs. All these data points indicate the economic backdrop is still favorable for us. So increasing renewal premiums, growing demand for insurance of favorable economy and continued strong net new business production continue to lead me to believe that our full year brokerage segment organic growth will be in that 6% to 8% range. As for risk management, we continue to see a similar outlook for '25 also in the 6% to 8% range.

谈到我们对经济状况的看法。我们通常跟踪和讨论的数据点并未表明经济出现大范围放缓。首先，从审计、批单和退保情况来看我们的每日收入指标，我们仍然看到中期保单调整处于正值区域，表明业务活动持续稳健。其次，美国的职位空缺数量仍然大于求职人数，同时医疗成本正在上涨。因此，雇主仍在寻找扩大员工队伍和控制福利成本的方法。所有这些数据点都表明经济背景对我们仍然有利。因此，续保保费的增加、有利经济下保险需求的增长以及持续强劲的新业务净增长，继续让我相信我们全年经纪业务板块的有机增长将在 6% 至 8% 的范围内。至于风险管理，我们继续看到 25 年的前景也类似，在 6% 至 8% 的范围内。

Okay. To close, let me give some quick soundbites on what you'll hear from the team today. Mike Pesch will tell you our Americas retail and specialty businesses are posting very strong performance. Renewal premium increases continue and net new business spread remains favorable. Patrick Gallagher will tell you our international retail and London specialty operations are having good performance. Retail renewal premium increases are up in the mid-single digits on average and our London specialty business continues to show strong net new business performance. So outside the U.S., we are expecting solid growth. Tom Gallagher will tell you that our Reinsurance unit performed fantastically during January renewals and had some nice new business wins.

好的。最后，让我简单介绍一下您今天将从团队那里听到的内容。迈克·佩什会告诉您，我们在美洲的零售和专业业务表现非常强劲。续保保费持续增长，新业务净差额保持有利。帕特里克·加拉格尔会告诉您，我们的国际零售和伦敦专业业务运营良好。零售续保保费平均以中个位数增长，我们的伦敦专业业务继续表现出强劲的新业务净增长。因此，在美国以外，我们预计将实现稳健增长。汤姆·加拉格尔会告诉您，我们的再保险部门在 1 月份的续保中表现出色，并赢得了一些不错的新业务。

Tom will also provide comments on our global merger and acquisition strategy. Then Bill Ziebell will walk you through our employee benefits and HR consulting businesses. He will highlight still broadly favorable macro backdrop, excellent net new business trends and continued demand for our consulting services. Scott Hudson will tell you our third-party claims administration business, we're seeing good growth, driven by our ability to drive superior outcomes. Then our CFO, Doug Howell, will bring it all together and tell you what we think this means financially for the first quarter and the full year financials.

汤姆还将就我们的全球并购战略发表评论。然后比尔·齐贝尔将向您介绍我们的员工福利和人力资源咨询业务。他将强调仍然广泛有利的宏观背景、出色的新业务净趋势以及对我们咨询服务的持续需求。斯科特·哈德森会告诉您我们的第三方索赔管理业务，在我们推动卓越成果的能力的驱动下，我们看到了良好的增长。然后，我们的首席财务官道格·豪厄尔将把所有这些整合起来，告诉您我们认为这对第一季度和全年的财务意味着什么。

I'll stop now and turn it over to Mike Pesch, who's going to discuss our PC brokerage operations across the Americas. Mike?

我现在就讲到这里，接下来交给迈克·佩什，他将讨论我们在美洲的财产意外险经纪业务。迈克？

Michael Pesch CEO of Global Brokerage of Americas

Thanks, Pat, and good morning, everyone. I'm Mike Pesch, the leader of our Property Casualty business in the Americas. Most of my comments will focus on our retail operations in the U.S. and Canada and our U.S. wholesale operations, known as Risk Placement Services. However, I will also briefly touch on our other specialty businesses and our operations in the Caribbean and Latin America.

迈克尔·佩什美洲全球经纪业务首席执行官

谢谢，帕特，大家早上好。我是迈克·佩什，美洲财产意外险业务的负责人。我的大部分评论将集中在美国和加拿大的零售业务以及我们美国的批发业务，即风险安置服务（Risk Placement Services）。不过，我也会简要介绍一下我们的其他专业业务以及我们在加勒比海和拉丁美洲的业务。

I'll plan to cover 3 topics. First, I'll provide an overview of these businesses. Second, I'll discuss current insurance market conditions. And third, I'll give you some early indications of how the first quarter of 2025 is playing out thus far. Starting with an overview of our retail brokerage operations across the Americas, in total, more than $3 billion of revenue, our largest and most mature operations are in the U.S. and during 2024, we generated $2.6 billion of U.S. revenue, making us the third largest PC retail broker in the country according to Business Insurance. Today, we placed around $20 billion of U.S. premium annually, which is serviced by around 10,000 employees. In Latin America and the Caribbean, we generate approximately $150 million of revenue across 15 countries and have approximately 1,700 employees.

我计划涵盖三个主题。首先，我将概述这些业务。其次，我将讨论当前的保险市场状况。第三，我将向大家初步介绍一下 2025 年第一季度迄今为止的进展情况。首先概述一下我们在美洲的零售经纪业务，总收入超过 30 亿美元，我们最大、最成熟的业务在美国，2024 年，我们在美国创造了 26 亿美元的收入，根据《商业保险》的统计，这使我们成为美国第三大财产意外险零售经纪商。如今，我们每年在美国投放约 200 亿美元的保费，由约 10,000 名员工提供服务。在拉丁美洲和加勒比地区，我们在 15 个国家创造了约 1.5 亿美元的收入，拥有约 1,700 名员工。

Moving to Canada. We are a top 5 commercial lines broker with clients in all 10 provinces and 3 territories. Here, we generate nearly $300 million of annual revenue through our roughly 1,500 employees. Our Americas retail businesses have common characteristics, and we serve and compete for clients of all sizes from large risk management clients to small commercial lines and also high net worth personal lines customers.

再来看加拿大。我们是排名前五的商业险经纪公司，客户遍布所有 10 个省和 3 个地区。在这里，我们通过大约 1,500 名员工创造了近 3 亿美元的年收入。我们在美洲的零售业务具有共同的特点，我们为各种规模的客户提供服务并展开竞争，从大型风险管理客户到小型商业险客户，再到高净值个人险客户。

With that said, the vast majority of our clients spend between $100,000 and $2.5 million on insurance premiums and that, in turn, translates into roughly $10,000 to $250,000 of annual commission and fee revenue to Gallagher. We find these clients very attractive, and that's because these size businesses typically have complex insurance needs. If they don't have a dedicated risk management professional on their staff.

话虽如此，我们绝大多数客户的保险费支出在 10 万美元到 250 万美元之间，这反过来又转化为加拉格尔每年大约 1 万美元到 25 万美元的佣金和费用收入。我们发现这些客户非常有吸引力，因为这些规模的企业通常有复杂的保险需求。如果他们的员工中没有专门的风险管理专业人员。

10%的佣金比例。

Thus, they rely on our experts to identify and evaluate risk on their behalf and, of course, find the right markets to place their insurance coverage. Essentially, our experts become the client's risk management department which effectively embeds Gallagher inside their business. This holistic approach to risk management is the foundation of our global client value proposition, CORE360 which focuses on the most important drivers of our clients' total cost of risk. The advice and solutions we provide to clients is bolstered by our various niche practice groups.

因此，他们依靠我们的专家代表他们识别和评估风险，当然，还要找到合适的市场来安排他们的保险。从本质上讲，我们的专家成为客户的风险管理部门，有效地将加拉格尔融入到他们的业务中。这种全面的风险管理方法是我们全球客户价值主张 CORE360 的基础，该主张侧重于客户总风险成本的最重要驱动因素。我们为客户提供的建议和解决方案得到了我们各种利基业务部门的支持。

These subject matter experts have specialized knowledge and deep insights into numerous product and industry verticals. By leveraging these experts, we can better identify and understand the risk characteristics of our customers and products. These industry-focused professionals work side by side with our producers in the field making sure we are addressing the unique risks that different industries are facing.

这些主题专家在众多产品和行业垂直领域拥有专业的知识和深刻的见解。通过利用这些专家，我们可以更好地识别和理解客户和产品的风险特征。这些专注于行业的专业人士与我们在一线的生产商并肩工作，确保我们正在应对不同行业面临的独特风险。

We also have hundreds of professionals working with clients to develop safety protocols and risk management programs while also assisting in claims resolution in advocating on behalf of our clients. So through focused risk management service offerings, differentiated coverages and products and claims resolution advocates. We have a fantastic offering, which I believe is a competitive advantage when competing against the tens of thousands of brokers across the Americas. Like Pat said, join us and the next day are decades of work and hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars of investments are yours, same for those producers looking for a better place to sell.

我们还有数百名专业人员与客户合作制定安全协议和风险管理计划，同时协助解决索赔问题并代表客户进行辩护。因此，通过专注的风险管理服务、差异化的保险产品和索赔解决倡导者。我们拥有出色的产品，我相信在与美洲数以万计的经纪人竞争时，这是一个竞争优势。正如帕特所说，加入我们，第二天，数十年的努力和数亿的投资就属于您了，对于那些寻求更好销售场所的生产商来说也是如此。

Moving on to our Americas Specialty businesses. In total, our Specialty businesses generated around $1.3 billion of revenue during 2024. There are a few different pieces here, so let me break down our business further. The largest piece is Risk Placement Services or RPS which generated $800 million of revenue in 2024. Founded in the late '90s, RPS is now the fourth largest wholesale broker in the U.S. and includes our open brokerage programs binding and MGA businesses.

接下来谈谈我们在美洲的专业业务。总的来说，我们的专业业务在 2024 年创造了约 13 亿美元的收入。这里有几个不同的部分，让我进一步分解我们的业务。最大的部分是风险安置服务（RPS），它在 2024 年创造了 8 亿美元的收入。RPS 成立于 90 年代后期，现在是美国第四大批发经纪商，包括我们的开放式经纪项目、约束性业务和总代理（MGA）业务。

We compete against a wide range of insurance intermediaries and clients tend to choose RPS because we are easy to do business with, are responsive, and have a wide breadth of products with strong carrier relationships. We are consistently engaging and soliciting feedback from our 13,000-plus retail clients to ensure our product suite and offerings are aligned with their needs.

我们与众多保险中介机构竞争，客户之所以选择 RPS，是因为我们易于合作、反应迅速，并且拥有广泛的产品和强大的保险公司关系。我们持续与我们超过 13,000 家零售客户互动并征求反馈，以确保我们的产品组合和产品能够满足他们的需求。

The remaining $500 million of revenue is split amongst various specialty operations, including ARTEX, our alternative risk solutions, captive management and ILS administrative services business. It also includes our Affinity business, where we offer specialized insurance solutions for over 300 national associations and Affinity groups. And finally, we have our risk program administration business, where we offer a wide range of services for risk pools, including public, private, faith-based and nonprofit customers. As you can see, we have a wide range of specialty offerings for customers.

剩余的 5 亿美元收入分配给各种专业业务，包括 ARTEX（我们的另类风险解决方案、自保管理和 ILS 行政服务业务）。它还包括我们的 Affinity 业务，我们为 300 多个全国性协会和 Affinity 团体提供专业的保险解决方案。最后，我们还有风险项目管理业务，为包括公共、私人、宗教和非营利客户在内的风险池提供广泛的服务。如您所见，我们为客户提供广泛的专业产品。

Moving on to my second topic, insurance market trends across the Americas. Starting with use retail, our customers continue to experience renewal print increases across nearly all lines of coverage and there continues to be moderating trend in property and increasing trend in casualty lines. So far in the first quarter, renewal premium changes that's both rate and exposure combined, are up 4%.

接下来是我的第二个主题，美洲的保险市场趋势。从零售业开始，我们的客户在几乎所有保险产品线的续保保费都在持续上涨，财产险的趋势持续放缓，而意外险的趋势则在上升。到目前为止，在第一季度，续保保费的变化（包括费率和风险敞口）上涨了 4%。

Overall, that's pretty similar to the past 3 quarters. However, there continues to be a shift between property and casualty beneath that headline. We continue to see more property renewal premium moderation, mostly for our larger U.S. clients, while casualty lines continue to show strength concentrated in auto and umbrella. That said, we are seeing in many cases where there are some potential price savings available. Clients are increasing their coverage levels.

总体而言，这与过去三个季度非常相似。然而，在这一总体趋势之下，财产险和意外险之间继续存在差异。我们继续看到财产险续保保费的涨幅进一步放缓，这主要针对我们较大的美国客户，而意外险产品线则继续显示出强劲势头，主要集中在汽车保险和伞式责任险。话虽如此，我们看到在许多情况下，如果存在一些潜在的价格节省空间，客户会提高他们的保险覆盖水平。

Let me give you some more flavor by line of business. Property is down about 2%. General liability and commercial auto are up 6%. Umbrella is up 10%. Workers' compensation is up around 1%, while cyber and D&O are about flat. Moving to Canada. Renewal premium changes are up about 1%. Property is down low single digits, while casualty increases are also in the low single digits. Moving to the U.S. wholesale market environment. Through the first 2 months of the quarter, our data is showing renewal premium increases of about 5%. Property renewal premiums are down low single digits. General liability and commercial auto premiums are up around 7% and umbrella is up 12%. Most other lines outside of D&O are up low to mid-single digits. Similar to U.S. retail, we continue to see property renewal premium changes moderating while casualty renewal premiums are increasing.

让我按业务类别提供更多具体信息。财产险下降约 2%。一般责任险和商业车险上涨 6%。伞式责任险上涨 10%。工伤赔偿险上涨约 1%，而网络安全险和董监事责任险基本持平。再来看加拿大。续保保费变化上涨约 1%。财产险呈低个位数下降，而意外险的增幅也为低个位数。转向美国批发市场环境。在本季度的前两个月，我们的数据显示续保保费上涨了约 5%。财产险续保保费呈低个位数下降。一般责任险和商业车险保费上涨约 7%，伞式责任险上涨 12%。除董监事责任险外，大多数其他险种的涨幅在低至中个位数之间。与美国零售市场类似，我们继续看到财产险续保保费变化放缓，而意外险续保保费则在增加。

Across the Americas, we continue to see rational carrier behavior with pricing differentiation driven by client loss experience. Good accounts get some premium relief in certain lines. However, accounts with poor experience are seeing greater increases. This is the ideal market for us to show our expertise, product knowledge and data-driven capabilities. Every client is different and we can help each one of our clients get the right coverage at the most optimal pricing by line of business for their risk profile. That's our job as brokers and I believe we have the most talented team in the industry.

在整个美洲，我们继续看到保险公司的理性行为，其定价差异取决于客户的损失经验。在某些险种中，优质客户可以获得一些保费减免。然而，经验较差的客户则面临更大的涨幅。这是我们展示专业知识、产品知识和数据驱动能力的理想市场。每个客户都是不同的，我们可以根据每个客户的风险状况，帮助他们按业务类别以最优的价格获得合适的保险。这是我们作为经纪人的工作，我相信我们拥有业内最有才华的团队。

And finally, I'll conclude with some thoughts on the first quarter. Through the first 2 months we are seeing continued renewal premium increases, positive net new business spread, a small net positive impact from midterm policy adjustments including audits, policy endorsements and cancellations. So based on what we are seeing thus far, we think first quarter organic across the Americas will be about 7% including 8% in RPS, 6% in U.S. retail and 4% in Canada. Looking ahead, I remain excited about our near-term and long-term prospects. We have solutions, sales talent data-driven insights and a client-first culture, which puts us in a position to consistently win.

最后，我将总结一下对第一季度的一些看法。在前两个月，我们看到续保保费持续增长，新业务净差额为正，包括审计、保单批单和退保在内的中期保单调整也带来了少量净积极影响。因此，根据我们目前看到的情况，我们认为美洲第一季度的有机增长率约为 7%，其中 RPS 为 8%，美国零售业务为 6%，加拿大为 4%。展望未来，我对我们的近期和长期前景仍然感到兴奋。我们拥有解决方案、销售人才、数据驱动的洞察力和客户至上的文化，这使我们能够持续取胜。

Okay. I'll stop and turn it over to Patrick Gallagher who will discuss the remainder of our major Property Casualty retail operations in addition to London specialty. Patrick.

好的。我就讲到这里，接下来交给帕特里克·加拉格尔，他将讨论我们除伦敦专业业务外的其他主要财产意外险零售业务。帕特里克。

Patrick Gallagher Executive VP & COO

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. This is Patrick Gallagher, and my comments today will focus on our retail P&C units in the U.K., Australia and New Zealand, in addition to our London specialty business. Similar to Mike, I plan to cover 3 topics. First, I'll mention each of these businesses. Second, I'll discuss the P&C insurance environment in each geography and then I'll finish up with some comments on what we are seeing thus far in the first quarter.

帕特里克·加拉格尔执行副总裁兼首席运营官

谢谢，迈克，大家早上好。我是帕特里克·加拉格尔，我今天的评论将重点关注我们在英国、澳大利亚和新西兰的零售财产意外险（P&C）部门，以及我们的伦敦专业业务。与迈克类似，我计划涵盖三个主题。首先，我将介绍这些业务中的每一个。其次，我将讨论每个地区的财产意外险环境，然后我将以对第一季度迄今为止我们所看到的一些情况的评论作为结束。

英语国家。

Starting with our international retail businesses. We operate in approximately 60 countries globally and have client capabilities in another 70 countries. Mike just covered Canada, Latin America and the Caribbean. So let me focus on our other large international retail operations in the U.K., Australia and New Zealand. Combined, these geographies finished 2024 with around $1.5 billion in revenue, placing around $9 billion of premium on behalf of our clients. Breaking these operations down further. We're one of the 5 largest U.K. retail brokers generating more than $800 million of annual revenue across approximately 100 locations. In Australia we are also a top 5 broker and have one of the leading commercial retail brokerage firms in New Zealand. Combined, Australia and New Zealand generate more than $600 million of revenue annually through 80 different locations.

从我们的国际零售业务开始。我们在全球约 60 个国家开展业务，并在另外 70 个国家拥有客户服务能力。迈克刚刚介绍了加拿大、拉丁美洲和加勒比地区。因此，让我重点介绍我们在英国、澳大利亚和新西兰的其他大型国际零售业务。总的来说，这些地区在 2024 年底的收入约为 15 亿美元，代表我们的客户投放了约 90 亿美元的保费。进一步细分这些业务。我们是英国五大零售经纪商之一，在约 100 个地点创造了超过 8 亿美元的年收入。在澳大利亚，我们也是排名前五的经纪商，并且在新西兰拥有领先的商业零售经纪公司之一。澳大利亚和新西兰加起来，通过 80 个不同的地点，每年创造超过 6 亿美元的收入。

You heard Mike talk about our Americas retail sweet spot is the middle market to upper middle market. And our customers in international geographies are similar in complexity to these clients. We also provide brokerage services to large account risk management business, smaller commercial enterprises and high net worth personal lines clients. So similar customers with similar insurance and risk management needs. Accordingly, our sales approach and tools near that of the Americas. That was built by design over the last decade. Today, we have a truly unified global go-to-market playbook.

你们听到迈克谈到我们美洲零售业务的最佳目标市场是中端市场到中高端市场。而我们在国际地区的客户在复杂性方面与这些客户相似。我们还为大型客户风险管理业务、小型商业企业和高净值个人险客户提供经纪服务。因此，是具有相似保险和风险管理需求的相似客户。因此，我们的销售方法和工具与美洲的类似。这是过去十年精心设计的结果。如今，我们拥有一个真正统一的全球市场推广策略。

Let me give you a few examples. First, CORE360, which Mike covered, while we introduced CORE360 around a decade ago as our U.S. go-to-market strategy, it is now the centerpiece of our global value proposition. It forms the foundation of our risk management discussions with clients and prospects of any size anywhere around the world. Second, our niche practice groups that cut across industry or product. Many of them have been organized at the global level allowing clients across geographies to benefit from our deep knowledge and expertise.

让我举几个例子。首先是 CORE360，迈克已经介绍过，虽然我们大约在十年前推出了 CORE360 作为我们在美国的市场推广策略，但它现在是我们全球价值主张的核心。它构成了我们与世界各地任何规模的客户和潜在客户进行风险管理讨论的基础。其次，是我们跨行业或产品的专业实践小组。其中许多小组已经在全球层面组织起来，使不同地区的客户能够从我们深厚的知识和专业技能中受益。

Examples of our global niches include energy, real estate, hospitality and marine. Third is our data and analytics platform, Gallagher Drive. Here, we are able to provide prospects and clients, insurance trends of other Gallagher clients from around the globe. This includes what lines of coverage are being purchased, limits ultimately being bound as well as potential catastrophe exposure and claims forecasts.

我们全球专业领域的例子包括能源、房地产、酒店和海事。第三是我们的数据和分析平台 Gallagher Drive。在这里，我们能够为潜在客户和现有客户提供来自全球各地其他加拉格尔客户的保险趋势。这包括正在购买的保险产品线、最终锁定的保额以及潜在的巨灾风险和索赔预测。

The platform further differentiates us versus the competition with producer utilization of drive continuing to increase across our platform. We also have SmartMarket, which has evolved into a global offering across our various global retail platforms, SmartMarket is being utilized by most of our large trading partners. Then there is Gallagher Submit our online client renewal platform. It uses a digital interface to reduce the friction in the renewal process for clients. And with many of our carrier partners embracing digitalization, it's making the quote process easier and more efficient for all parties.

该平台进一步使我们与竞争对手区分开来，生产商对 Drive 的使用率在我们的整个平台上持续增加。我们还有 SmartMarket，它已经发展成为我们各个全球零售平台的全球性产品，我们大多数大型贸易伙伴都在使用 SmartMarket。然后是 Gallagher Submit，我们的在线客户续保平台。它使用数字界面来减少客户续保过程中的摩擦。随着我们的许多保险公司合作伙伴拥抱数字化，它正在使报价过程对所有各方都更容易、更高效。

And finally, our Gallagher Go mobile app. Here, you can access your insurance account 24/7 to manage locations, vehicles, drivers, and other insurance-related content. So our retail platforms utilize the same sales techniques, tools and data and analytics. They also rely heavily on our Gallagher Center of Excellence for large portions of their client servicing efforts, too.

最后是我们的 Gallagher Go 移动应用程序。在这里，您可以 7*24 小时访问您的保险账户，以管理地点、车辆、驾驶员和其他与保险相关的内容。因此，我们的零售平台使用相同的销售技巧、工具以及数据和分析。他们的大部分客户服务工作也严重依赖我们的加拉格尔卓越中心。

Sticking with our center of excellence, our nearly 2 decades of working standardizing our processes and unifying our technologies around the globe have equipped us to better harness the power of AI. We are still in the early innings of the journey, utilizing AI. The first group of tasks include policy checking and the issuance of certificates of insurance. With these efficiency gains, we are able to redeploy resources for sales enablement and renewal support.

坚持我们的卓越中心，我们近二十年来致力于在全球范围内标准化我们的流程和统一我们的技术，这使我们能够更好地利用人工智能的力量。我们仍处于利用人工智能的早期阶段。第一批任务包括保单检查和签发保险凭证。通过这些效率的提高，我们能够将资源重新部署到销售支持和续保支持上。

We have an exhaustive list of resources that attract top talent and merger partners. It puts us in a great spot competitively. And when considering we are competing with someone smaller than us, around 90% of the time, these local brokers just can't match the insights, service, technology or tools we provide.

我们拥有详尽的资源清单，吸引顶尖人才和并购伙伴。这使我们在竞争中处于有利地位。考虑到我们大约 90% 的时间都在与比我们规模小的公司竞争，这些本地经纪人根本无法匹敌我们提供的洞察力、服务、技术或工具。

Now shifting to London Specialty. Our leading franchise has roots dating back to the mid-70s. Here, we tend to focus on large commercial clients and also support retail agents and brokers around the world to place specialty insurance solutions across 6 main trading divisions: aerospace, marine, financial lines, construction, energy and property. Our 1,200 colleagues generate more than $700 million of annual revenue and placed more than $6 billion of premium annually. London specialty growth has been fantastic in recent years, and we still have many exciting growth opportunities.

现在转向伦敦专业业务。我们领先的特许经营业务可以追溯到 70 年代中期。在这里，我们倾向于专注于大型商业客户，并支持世界各地的零售代理商和经纪人，在航空航天、海事、金融险种、建筑、能源和财产这六个主要交易部门投放专业保险解决方案。我们的 1200 名同事每年创造超过 7 亿美元的收入，并投放超过 60 亿美元的保费。近年来，伦敦专业业务的增长非常出色，我们仍然有许多令人兴奋的增长机会。

Let me provide you with a few initiatives. First, we continue to invest in and further deepen our niches and specialisms. We are constantly looking to expand our capabilities, market relationships and product offerings that align with client need, including financial lines, cyber and energy. Secondly, we are looking to onboard and develop new talent. This includes seasoned producers that will add to our expertise across our 6 specialties trading areas. We also continue to develop our own to our summer internship program and our graduate program, Gallagher Futures. Third is the utilization of SmartMarket. It's an important platform that allows us to trade with participants more efficiently. A number of specialty markets have joined the platform and I believe there is additional carrier appetite in 2025 and beyond.

让我向您介绍一些举措。首先，我们继续投资并进一步深化我们的细分市场和专业领域。我们不断寻求扩大我们的能力、市场关系和产品供应，以满足客户需求，包括金融险种、网络安全和能源。其次，我们正在寻求引进和培养新的人才。这包括经验丰富的制作人，他们将增强我们在 6 个专业交易领域的专业知识。我们还通过暑期实习计划和毕业生计划 Gallagher Futures 继续培养自己的人才。第三是 SmartMarket 的利用。这是一个重要的平台，使我们能够更有效地与参与者进行交易。许多专业市场已经加入了该平台，我相信在 2025 年及以后，保险公司的兴趣还会增加。

Now moving to my comments on the insurance market. Let me discuss what we are seeing so far in the first 2 months of the first quarter, starting with retail. In the U.K. renewal premium change, both rate and exposure combined, are increasing 4%. Property is up 4%. Commercial auto is up 7%. General liability is flat. Package is up 3%. Professional lines down about 4%, and most other lines are up low single digits. Renewal premiums in Australia are up 4%. Most property and casualty lines are up mid-single digits, while D&O and professional lines are flat. New Zealand's renewal premiums are up about 2%. Property and D&O are up 3%, while general liability and commercial auto are flat. Within the London specialty market, we continue to see broad underwriting discipline from carriers.

现在谈谈我对保险市场的看法。让我讨论一下在第一季度的前两个月我们目前看到的情况，从零售业开始。在英国，续保保费变化（费率和风险敞口合计）增长了 4%。财产险上涨 4%。商业车险上涨 7%。一般责任险持平。一揽子保险上涨 3%。专业责任险下降约 4%，大多数其他险种均呈低个位数上涨。澳大利亚的续保保费上涨了 4%。大多数财产险和意外险险种均呈中个位数上涨，而董监事责任险和专业责任险则持平。新西兰的续保保费上涨约 2%。财产险和董监事责任险上涨 3%，而一般责任险和商业车险则持平。在伦敦专业市场，我们继续看到保险公司广泛的承保纪律。

However, competition is growing across the property and financial lines space, including B&O and cyber. Clients are leveraging improved pricing to reduce their deductibles, push for better terms and conditions and in some cases, buy more limit. Specialty carriers remain cautious on U.S. casualty classes and continue to watch for clues of moderating loss cost trends. We are seeing certain facultative markets reduce their casualty capacity. However, there hasn't been a significant shift higher in pricing for this business. So looking broadly across the specialty market, we believe renewal premiums are flat to modestly higher.

然而，在财产险和金融险领域，包括董监事责任险和网络安全险，竞争日益激烈。客户正在利用改善的定价来降低免赔额，争取更好的条款和条件，在某些情况下，还会购买更高的保额。专业保险公司对美国的意外险类别保持谨慎，并继续关注损失成本趋势放缓的线索。我们看到某些临时分保市场正在减少其意外险承保能力。然而，该业务的定价并未出现大幅上涨。因此，从整个专业市场的角度来看，我们认为续保保费持平或略有上涨。

Finally, new business production and client retention remains strong across all our major international retail geographies and London Specialty. So pulling it all together, I see first quarter organic for our U.K. , Australia and New Zealand retail and our London specialty units combined around 5%. So these businesses continue to perform very well, and we remain excited about 2025 and beyond.

最后，在我们所有主要的国际零售地区和伦敦专业业务中，新业务的产生和客户保留率仍然强劲。总而言之，我预计我们英国、澳大利亚和新西兰的零售业务以及伦敦专业业务部门在第一季度的总有机增长率约为 5%。因此，这些业务继续表现良好，我们对 2025 年及以后仍然充满期待。

Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Tom Gallagher, who's going to discuss our reinsurance operations and global M&A strategy. Tom?

好的。我就讲到这里，接下来交给汤姆·加拉格尔，他将讨论我们的再保险业务和全球并购战略。汤姆？

Thomas Gallagher President

Thanks, Patrick, and good morning to everyone joining us on the call today. Today, my comments will focus on our global reinsurance brokerage operation Gallagher Re, and then I'll pivot to discuss our global M&A strategy in more detail. Starting with an overview of Gallagher Re. Gallagher Re is the third largest reinsurance broker in the world and was formed for the combination of our 2013 start-up of Capsicum Re and the purchase of WTW's Treaty Reinsurance business in December of 2021. We finished last year with about $1.2 billion of revenue, most of which comes in the first half of the year given the timing of major reinsurance renewals. We strive to go to be the go-to reinsurance broker that can advise clients globally regardless of location and size, utilizing deep expertise and analytical capabilities.

托马斯·加拉格尔总裁

谢谢，帕特里克，大家早上好，欢迎参加今天的电话会议。今天，我的评论将重点关注我们的全球再保险经纪业务 Gallagher Re，然后我将转而更详细地讨论我们的全球并购战略。首先概述一下 Gallagher Re。Gallagher Re 是全球第三大再保险经纪商，由我们 2013 年成立的 Capsicum Re 与 2021 年 12 月收购的 WTW 条约再保险业务合并而成。去年年底，我们的收入约为 12 亿美元，鉴于主要再保险续保的时间安排，其中大部分收入来自上半年。我们致力于成为首选的再保险经纪商，无论客户身在何处、规模大小，都能利用深厚的专业知识和分析能力为他们提供咨询服务。

Our 3,200 reinsurance professionals provide advice, modeling, strategy and placement expertise on a wide range of offerings, including treaty reinsurance facultative reinsurance and other risk transfer products to nearly 1,000 underwriting enterprises around the globe. 2024 was a fantastic year for the business with many important accomplishments, including double-digit organic growth, tuck-in M&A activity with the acquisition of Toronto-based MGB Re continued investments in production talent, including facultative capabilities, completing integration, including some exciting milestones such as our new consolidated reinsurance agency management system going live in July of 2024 and exiting the transition service agreement with WTW effective November of 2024.

我们的 3200 名再保险专业人士为全球近 1000 家承保企业提供咨询、建模、战略和投放专业知识，涵盖范围广泛的产品，包括条约再保险、临时再保险和其他风险转移产品。2024 年对该业务来说是辉煌的一年，取得了许多重要成就，包括两位数的有机增长、通过收购多伦多 MGB Re 进行的补强性并购活动、对生产人才（包括临时分保能力）的持续投资、完成整合（包括一些激动人心的里程碑，例如我们新的综合再保险代理管理系统于 2024 年 7 月上线）以及于 2024 年 11 月生效的与 WTW 的过渡服务协议的终止。

Building on the tremendous accomplishments of the past year, we've seen many attractive and exciting growth opportunities ahead. Let me provide you with some examples. First, we're expanding our product offering, including adding some solutions across life and health. Marine and Energy, programs, cyber, property and facultative capabilities.

在过去一年取得巨大成就的基础上，我们看到了许多有吸引力且令人兴奋的增长机会。让我举一些例子。首先，我们正在扩大我们的产品供应，包括在人寿和健康、海事和能源、项目、网络安全、财产和临时分保能力方面增加一些解决方案。

Second, we are capitalizing on our global footprint. This includes growing our client base in existing geographies while engaging with opportunities and winning new clients across Europe, Asia Pacific and the Caribbean. Third, we are investing in new talent, targeting these same product growth areas and geographies. This includes seasoned production hires that bring increased depth and expertise in the reinsurance market and leveraging the Gallagher internship program to replenish new talent across our global operations.

其次，我们正在利用我们的全球足迹。这包括在现有地区扩大我们的客户群，同时抓住机遇并在欧洲、亚太地区和加勒比地区赢得新客户。第三，我们正在投资新的人才，目标是这些相同的产品增长领域和地区。这包括经验丰富的生产人员招聘，他们为再保险市场带来了更深的深度和专业知识，并利用 Gallagher 实习计划为我们的全球业务补充新的人才。

And fourth, we continue to execute on cross-divisional opportunities. And since working together is ingrained in our culture, I believe we have a leg up when leveraging existing Gallagher relationships whether it's through Gallagher Bassett, a retail business or our MGA and program operations. Next, let me provide some comments on the reinsurance market environment from the January 1 renewals. Overall, the environment generally favored reinsurance buyers and even with more demand for cover, we would characterize renewal discussions as orderly. There were differences by product line. Property, there was growing demand for [ cat ] covered from buyers, which was met with more than sufficient reinsurance capacity. This is notable, especially given that '24 was another year and elevated higher natural catastrophe losses.

第四，我们继续执行跨部门的机会。由于共同合作已深深植根于我们的文化之中，我相信在利用现有的 Gallagher 关系时，无论是通过 Gallagher Bassett、零售业务还是我们的 MGA 和项目运营，我们都具有优势。接下来，让我对 1 月 1 日续保的再保险市场环境发表一些评论。总体而言，环境普遍有利于再保险买家，即使对承保范围的需求增加，我们也会将续保讨论描述为有序的。不同产品线之间存在差异。财产险方面，买家对巨灾保险的需求不断增长，而再保险承保能力绰绰有余。这一点值得注意，特别是因为 24 年又是自然巨灾损失较高的一年。

We estimate more than $150 billion of global insured losses occurred last year. Importantly, reinsurers continue to exercise discipline on terms. It did not revert to attachment point that expose them to greater frequency. For most specialty coverage such as energy, marine and aviation, buyers also saw modest price declines, but again, no changes in policy terms.

我们估计去年全球保险损失超过 1500 亿美元。重要的是，再保险公司继续在条款上保持纪律。它没有恢复到使他们面临更高频率风险的起赔点。对于大多数专业险种，如能源、海事和航空，买家也看到了温和的价格下降，但同样，保单条款没有变化。

Shifting to casualty. While there was adequate reinsurance capacity for most exposures, reinsurers remain cautious on U.S. casualty risks due to elevated loss cost trends and potential reserve deficiencies. Those interested in more detailed commentary on January renewals can find our first new market report on our website. So the global reinsurance market continues to grow as primary insurance carriers showed increased demand for copper. Gallagher Re should benefit from this trend.

转向意外险。虽然大多数风险敞口都有充足的再保险能力，但由于损失成本趋势上升和潜在的准备金不足，再保险公司对美国意外险风险仍持谨慎态度。那些对 1 月份续保的更详细评论感兴趣的人可以在我们的网站上找到我们的第一份新市场报告。因此，随着主要保险公司对铜的需求增加，全球再保险市场持续增长。Gallagher Re 应该会从这一趋势中受益。

And when combined with some nice new business wins, Gallagher Re had a fantastic 1/1 leading to first quarter organic in the mid-teens. Looking forward, wildfire losses and casualty reserve increases continue to be the focus of reinsurers today. With that said, U.S. severe convective storm season is just about here, which then leads into U.S. wind season. Time will tell how the year plays out. Regardless, Gallagher Reach continued to excel in this environment. Shifting to our global M&A strategy across our various businesses and geographies, there remains a terrific opportunity to grow for mergers. That growth shows up initially through a merger and then helps fuel our future organic growth opportunities.

再加上一些不错的新业务胜利，Gallagher Re 在 1 月 1 日取得了骄人的业绩，导致第一季度有机增长达到百分之十几的中间水平。展望未来，野火损失和意外险准备金增加仍然是当今再保险公司关注的焦点。话虽如此，美国的强对流风暴季节即将来临，随后将进入美国的风季。时间会证明今年的情况如何。无论如何，Gallagher Reach 在这种环境下继续表现出色。转向我们在不同业务和地区的全球并购战略，通过并购实现增长的机会仍然巨大。这种增长最初通过并购显现出来，然后有助于推动我们未来的有机增长机会。

According to one of the leading consulting firms, there are upwards of 30,000 agencies and brokerage firms in the U.S. alone, and we think there could be another 30,000 or so across our major operating geographies. Most of these 60,000 firms are smaller and family owned and operated. We believe Gallagher is a natural home for these entrepreneurs and owners who are looking to add additional value to their current clients help further advance their employees' careers and to further grow their business.

根据一家领先咨询公司的数据，仅在美国就有超过 30,000 家代理机构和经纪公司，我们认为在我们主要的运营地区可能还有另外大约 30,000 家。这 60,000 家公司中的大多数都是规模较小的家族式经营企业。我们相信，对于那些希望为其现有客户增加额外价值、帮助其员工进一步发展职业生涯并进一步发展其业务的企业家和所有者来说，Gallagher 是一个天然的归宿。

M&A Gallagher is about believing we can be better together for the benefit of our clients that one plus one equals more than 2, perhaps 3, 4 or even 5. We've proven hundreds of times that a merger partner brings us expertise market insights, creative thinking relationships. We get their brands and that makes Gallagher better. We have many exciting things to offer our merger partners, including top-notch industry-leading expertise through our various niche practice groups, access to our data and analytics platform, Gallagher Drive, increased breadth of risk management solutions, retail, wholesale, benefits, alternative markets and reinsurance, fantastic relations with our carrier partners, including some unique product offerings, a more efficient back and middle office through our Gallagher Center of Excellence and a recognized brand name.

并购 Gallagher 的核心在于相信我们可以为了客户的利益而共同变得更好，相信一加一大于二，甚至可能等于三、四或五。我们已经数百次证明，并购伙伴为我们带来了专业知识、市场洞察力、创造性思维和人际关系。我们获得了他们的品牌，这使得 Gallagher 变得更好。我们有很多令人兴奋的东西可以提供给我们的并购伙伴，包括通过我们各种专业实践小组提供的顶尖的行业领先专业知识、访问我们的数据和分析平台 Gallagher Drive、更广泛的风险管理解决方案（零售、批发、福利、另类市场和再保险）、与我们的保险公司合作伙伴的良好关系（包括一些独特的产品供应）、通过我们的 Gallagher 卓越中心实现的更高效的后台和中台运营，以及一个公认的品牌名称。

And when firms merge with Gallagher, they realized that we are the ultimate and final home. They won't ever have to change their name again. They won't be flipped. They won't have to start investing in the business and make drastic expense cuts to pay rising debt costs. They know any equity they have is the exact same type of equity that other employees in the firm and the management team have. Merger partners immediately get our knowledge and know-how, allowing them to bring more value to their clients.

当公司与 Gallagher 合并时，他们意识到我们是最终的归宿。他们再也不用改名了。他们不会被转手。他们不必开始投资业务并大幅削减开支来支付不断上涨的债务成本。他们知道他们拥有的任何股权都与公司其他员工和管理团队拥有的股权完全相同。并购伙伴立即获得我们的知识和专有技术，使他们能够为客户带来更多价值。

Some clients renewing through Gallagher submit to comparing insurance programs of other Gallagher clients using Gallagher Drive, clients like me, so the quick turnaround time of [indiscernible] insurance and the accuracy of insurance policies and many, many more. All of these capabilities are becoming an integral part of client expectations. As an owner, you have a choice to make that all of our capabilities overnight for joining us or hope that your clients don't demand it or spend numerous years and a lot of money and energy building it on your own.

一些通过 Gallagher 续保的客户提交了使用 Gallagher Drive 与其他 Gallagher 客户的保险计划进行比较的请求，像我这样的客户，因此[听不清]保险的快速周转时间以及保单的准确性等等，不胜枚举。所有这些能力正在成为客户期望中不可或缺的一部分。作为所有者，您可以选择在一夜之间获得我们所有的能力（通过加入我们），或者希望您的客户不要求这些能力，或者花费数年时间和大量资金精力自己构建这些能力。

Many firms are recognizing this decision, and it is why our M&A deal sheet and pipeline continue to be incredibly robust. We have proven our M&A strategy will continue to deliver excellent results and returns in the future years.

许多公司正在认识到这一决定，这就是为什么我们的并购交易清单和储备项目持续保持非常强劲的原因。我们已经证明，我们的并购战略将在未来几年继续带来出色的业绩和回报。

正在进行大面积的并购。

Okay. Now I'll turn it over to Bill Ziebell, who's going to discuss our benefits brokerage and HR consulting operations known as Gallagher Benefit Services. Bill?

好的。现在我把时间交给比尔·齐贝尔，他将讨论我们的福利经纪和人力资源咨询业务，即 Gallagher 福利服务。比尔？

William Ziebell CEO of Benefits & HR Consulting Division

Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I'm Bill Ziebell, and I lead our employee benefits and HR consulting business, Gallagher Benefit Services, also known as GBS. My comments today will cover 3 topics. First, I'll provide an overview of GBS. Second, I'll give you some insights into the health and benefits market, our client value proposition and our execution strategies.

威廉·齐贝尔福利与人力资源咨询部首席执行官

谢谢，汤姆，大家早上好。我是比尔·齐贝尔，我负责我们的员工福利和人力资源咨询业务，即 Gallagher 福利服务公司（GBS）。我今天的评论将涵盖三个主题。首先，我将概述 GBS。其次，我将向您介绍一些关于健康和福利市场、我们的客户价值主张以及我们的执行战略的见解。

And I'll conclude with some observations from the first 2 months of the first quarter. Okay, starting with an overview of the business. GBS was started in the U.S. during the mid-70s and expanded into the United Kingdom in 2010, Canada in 2012 and Australia in 2017. Today, we have around 9,000 employees, including 2,300 in our centers of excellence with significant scale and expertise across services focused on an employer's most pressing needs, including health, career and financial well-being.

最后，我将总结一下第一季度前两个月的一些观察。好的，首先概述一下业务。GBS 于 70 年代中期在美国成立，并于 2010 年扩展到英国，2012 年扩展到加拿大，2017 年扩展到澳大利亚。如今，我们拥有约 9000 名员工，其中包括我们卓越中心的 2300 名员工，他们在专注于雇主最紧迫需求的各项服务（包括健康、职业和财务福祉）方面拥有巨大的规模和专业知识。

The business generated $2.2 billion of revenue during 2024 making GBS the fourth largest benefits broker and HR consultant in the world. The U.S. remains our largest geography and represents approximately 85% of our annual revenues generated from about 70 locations. The remaining 15% is predominantly from the U.K., Canada and Australia. Our producers provide solutions and access to a wide range of products that help businesses address their human capital needs. Products include traditional group insurance coverages such as medical, dental, vision, disability and life. We also have various voluntary products that employers can offer to their employees.

该业务在 2024 年创造了 22 亿美元的收入，使 GBS 成为全球第四大福利经纪商和人力资源顾问。美国仍然是我们最大的业务地区，约占我们年收入的 85%，这些收入来自约 70 个分支机构。其余 15% 主要来自英国、加拿大和澳大利亚。我们的制作人提供解决方案并提供广泛的产品，帮助企业满足其人力资本需求。产品包括传统的团体保险，如医疗、牙科、视力、残疾和人寿保险。我们还提供各种雇主可以向其员工提供的自愿性产品。

In addition to these products, we provide advice on employer benefit plan design, financial projections of the plans and potential cost saving strategies. These offerings combined represent approximately 2/3 of our annual revenue. The remainder of our revenue comes from retirement services, compensation advice, executive life, HR consulting and other similar offerings that help employers address their human capital strategy outside of health and benefits. Many times, we are competing against local or regional benefit firms and have capabilities to serve clients of all sizes. Frankly, we can provide a nice alternative to some of our bigger competitors and have a multinational consulting business where we can help employers with operations outside of our core geographies.

除了这些产品，我们还就雇主福利计划设计、计划的财务预测和潜在的成本节约策略提供建议。这些产品和服务合计约占我们年收入的三分之二。我们其余的收入来自退休服务、薪酬咨询、高管人寿、人力资源咨询以及其他类似的帮助雇主解决健康和福利之外的人力资本战略的产品和服务。很多时候，我们与本地或区域性的福利公司竞争，并且有能力为各种规模的客户提供服务。坦率地说，我们可以为一些较大的竞争对手提供一个不错的替代方案，并且我们拥有跨国咨询业务，可以帮助那些在我们核心业务地区以外有业务的雇主。

Before diving into some of our growth initiatives, let me talk about the Gallagher People strategy, our recently renamed value proposition. It's the approach our professionals take to develop a total rewards strategy that employers can use to attract, engage and retain talent while simultaneously managing costs. There are many employee benefits and rewards outside of compensation and medical coverage. For example, employers can enhance financial well-being through defined contribution plans or offer physical and emotional health products. Our bespoke and tailored approach helps clients move towards their human capital goals.

在深入探讨我们的一些增长举措之前，让我谈谈 Gallagher 人才战略，这是我们最近重新命名的价值主张。这是我们的专业人士用来制定全面薪酬战略的方法，雇主可以使用该战略来吸引、激励和留住人才，同时管理成本。除了薪酬和医疗保险之外，还有许多员工福利和奖励。例如，雇主可以通过固定缴款计划来增强财务福祉，或者提供身心健康产品。我们量身定制的方法帮助客户实现其人力资本目标。

Overall, the macro environment remains supportive of growth. Within the U.S., the labor market remained strong. In fact, since April 2024, the number of open jobs remained relatively steady and at a level that is still well above the number of unemployed people looking for work. So it's still difficult for employees to find the right talent. And while talent remains a top priority, we are hearing more and more from employers that managing rising medical cost is increasingly important. So employers are looking for ways to grow their workforce and at the same time, face wage increases and continued medical cost inflation. Both are headwinds to professionals are helping them navigate.

总体而言，宏观环境仍然支持增长。在美国，劳动力市场依然强劲。事实上，自 2024 年 4 月以来，空缺职位数量保持相对稳定，并且仍远高于正在寻找工作的失业人数。因此，员工仍然很难找到合适的人才。虽然人才仍然是重中之重，但我们越来越多地从雇主那里听到，管理不断上涨的医疗成本变得越来越重要。因此，雇主正在寻找扩大员工队伍的方法，同时面临工资上涨和持续的医疗成本通胀。这两者都是专业人士正在帮助他们应对的逆风。

A few thoughts on health care cost trends in 2025. We are forecasting medical cost trends up 8%, driven by health provider consolidation and hospital workforce shortages. For pharmacy costs, we're expecting trends up 10%, driven by higher cost single-sourced brand drugs and the increased utilization of GLP-1s. In stop-loss, these trends are magnified in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Increases are being driven by a higher number of large claims, rising cost of hospital and physician services, specialty medications and the impact of cell and gene therapies. So elevated health program price increases are likely here to stay for the near to intermediate term. But remember, it's our job to help mitigate these increases through program design and various point solutions and services. An important approach we are taking with prospects is called Test Drive.

关于 2025 年医疗保健成本趋势的一些想法。我们预测医疗成本趋势将上涨 8%，这主要是由于医疗服务提供商的整合和医院劳动力短缺所致。对于药房成本，我们预计趋势将上涨 10%，这主要是由于成本较高的单一来源品牌药物以及 GLP-1 利用率的增加所致。在止损保险方面，这些趋势在百分之十几到百分之二十几的范围内被放大。增长的原因是巨额索赔数量增加、医院和医生服务成本上涨、特效药以及细胞和基因疗法的影响。因此，医疗项目价格的大幅上涨可能会在近期到中期持续存在。但请记住，我们的工作是通过项目设计以及各种针对性的解决方案和服务来帮助减轻这些增长。我们正在对潜在客户采取一种重要的方法，称为“试驾”。

We have clients provide us information about their current employee population and benefits program, and we leverage our proprietary data and experts to provide these prospects recommend program design and coverage changes. Many times, our experts propose ideas to enhance coverage while maintaining or even lowering costs. We are also rolling out our data and analytic platform, also named Gallagher Drive. So we were using data-driven insights to further separate ourselves from the competition across our HR and Benefits platform.

我们让客户向我们提供有关其当前员工队伍和福利计划的信息，然后我们利用我们的专有数据和专家为这些潜在客户推荐计划设计和承保范围变更。很多时候，我们的专家会提出一些想法，在维持甚至降低成本的同时增强承保范围。我们还在推出我们的数据和分析平台，也称为 Gallagher Drive。因此，我们正在利用数据驱动的洞察力，在人力资源和福利平台上进一步使我们从竞争中脱颖而出。

We are also separating from the competition like showcasing our expertise through webinars, thought leadership and various online and print content. We have hosted many webinars here in covering topics like compliance, pension plan de-risking, weight loss, drugs and employee retention. These online events are on top of the thought leadership pieces we are publishing on a regular basis and drive ongoing engagement with our customers and prospects.

我们还通过网络研讨会、思想领导力以及各种在线和印刷内容展示我们的专业知识，从而在竞争中脱颖而出。我们在这里举办了许多网络研讨会，涵盖合规性、养老金计划去风险化、减肥、药物和员工保留等主题。这些在线活动是我们定期发布的思想领导力文章的补充，并推动与我们的客户和潜在客户的持续互动。

Shifting to some comments on January and February. During the first 2 months of the year, we saw favorable new business production and customer retention within our core U.S. Health and Benefits business, solid growth in our international operations and strong demand for our fee-for-service individual products and retirement consulting offices. When I combine what we are seeing across the global business, the first quarter organic is running more than 7%. Looking ahead, I believe we are positioned for continued growth. Our experts delivering on our value proposition, combined with leading tools, insights and products. We'll help clients navigate their most pressing HR and benefits needs.

转向关于一月和二月的一些评论。在今年的前两个月，我们看到我们核心的美国健康与福利业务的新业务产生和客户保留情况良好，我们的国际业务稳健增长，并且对我们的按服务收费的个人产品和退休咨询办公室的需求强劲。综合我们在全球业务中所看到的情况，第一季度的有机增长率超过 7%。展望未来，我相信我们已为持续增长做好了准备。我们的专家通过领先的工具、见解和产品来实现我们的价值主张。我们将帮助客户满足其最紧迫的人力资源和福利需求。

Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Scott Hudson, who's going to discuss our management segment also known as Gallagher Bassett. Scott?

好的。我现在就讲到这里，接下来交给斯科特·哈德森，他将讨论我们的管理部门，也就是 Gallagher Bassett。斯科特？

Scott Hudson President & CEO of Risk Management Services

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I'm Scott Hudson. I lead our third-party claims administration business, Gallagher Bassett. If you are familiar with our financial statement reporting, it is also known as the Risk Management segment. I'll cover 3 topics today. First, I'll provide an overview of Gallagher Bassett or GB for short, then I'll give some insight into what we're seeing so far during the first quarter. And I'll finish with some comments on how the business is being positioned for the long term. .

斯科特·哈德森风险管理服务总裁兼首席执行官

谢谢，比尔，大家早上好。我是斯科特·哈德森。我负责我们的第三方索赔管理业务 Gallagher Bassett。如果您熟悉我们的财务报表报告，它也被称为风险管理部门。我今天将讨论三个主题。首先，我将概述 Gallagher Bassett（简称 GB），然后我将分享一些我们第一季度到目前为止的观察。最后，我将就该业务的长期定位发表一些评论。

On to the business overview. GB was formed in the early '60s by the Gallagher brothers and Sterling Bassett and has grown to $1.5 billion of revenue in 2024, making one of the world's largest P&C third-party claims administrators. More than 80% of our revenue is generated in the U.S., and the remaining 20% is spread across Australia and to a lesser extent, the U.K. and Canada. We have more than 10,000 employees globally, and most of our claims resolution managers work from home. To be clear, we do not take underwriting risk, but rather adjust and pay claims on behalf of our clients. In 2024, we closed more than 1.3 million claims and paid out around $17 billion on behalf of our clients.

关于业务概览。GB 由 Gallagher 兄弟和 Sterling Bassett 于 60 年代初成立，到 2024 年收入已增长至 15 亿美元，成为全球最大的财产意外险第三方索赔管理机构之一。我们超过 80% 的收入来自美国，其余 20% 分布在澳大利亚，以及程度稍低的英国和加拿大。我们在全球拥有超过 10,000 名员工，我们的大多数索赔解决经理都在家工作。需要明确的是，我们不承担承保风险，而是代表我们的客户理算和支付索赔。2024 年，我们处理了超过 130 万件索赔，并代表我们的客户支付了约 170 亿美元。

That level of annual claims paid would put us close to 1 of the 5 largest P&C insurance companies in the U.S. Most of our third-party claim adjusting revenue is derived from servicing workers' compensation claims while around 1/3 comes for liability claims and 5% relates to property. We also service a significant amount of Australian disability claims following our late '23 acquisition of my Plan Manager.

这一年度索赔支付水平使我们接近美国五大财产意外险保险公司之一。我们第三方索赔理算收入的大部分来自工伤赔偿索赔服务，约三分之一来自责任索赔，5% 与财产索赔相关。在我们于 23 年底收购 My Plan Manager 后，我们还处理了大量澳大利亚残疾索赔。

In this business, we closed nearly 5 million claims and paid out more than $3 billion during 2024. In addition to these services, we have many specialty product offerings for medical malpractice, professional liability, environmental, product liability and cyber can name just a few. It's also worth noting that within the property space, we're not large storm or catastrophe loss adjusters, but rather focus on specialty classes and complex claims. So across comp, liability, disability, specialty and property classes, our suite of products and various offerings enable us to provide claims services for the majority of our clients' exposures. We segment our business by client type.

在这项业务中，我们在 2024 年处理了近 500 万件索赔，并支付了超过 30 亿美元。除了这些服务，我们还有许多专业产品，例如医疗事故、职业责任、环境责任、产品责任和网络责任等等，仅举几例。值得注意的是，在财产险领域，我们并非大型风暴或巨灾损失理算商，而是专注于特殊类别和复杂索赔。因此，在薪酬、责任、残疾、专业和财产类别中，我们的产品套件和各种产品使我们能够为客户的大部分风险敞口提供索赔服务。我们按客户类型细分业务。

First, our large commercial customers, I think Fortune 1000 businesses. These clients have balance sheets that allow them to have large deductible programs or self-insure, and they outsource the claims resolution process to us. This is our most mature and largest client segment. Second, our public sector clients. These include municipalities, state entities, federal governments and school districts.

首先，是我们的大型商业客户，我认为是财富 1000 强企业。这些客户的资产负债表允许他们拥有大额免赔额计划或自保，并将索赔解决流程外包给我们。这是我们最成熟、最大的客户群。其次，是我们的公共部门客户。其中包括市政当局、州级实体、联邦政府和学区。

Third, our group captive or alternative market clients. These insurance entities utilize our services for their claim handling infrastructure. And fourth and last, our client segment is insurance carriers. These are underwriting enterprises that choose to fully outsource or white label a portion of their claim handling operations with around $250 million of annual revenue across 150 different carriers and even more when you include the Australian state workers' compensation schemes, this continues to be the fastest-growing portion of our business today.

第三，是我们的团体专属自保或另类市场客户。这些保险实体利用我们的服务来构建其索赔处理基础设施。第四也是最后，我们的客户群是保险公司。这些是承保企业，它们选择将其部分索赔处理业务完全外包或贴牌外包，年收入约 2.5 亿美元，涉及 150 家不同的保险公司，如果算上澳大利亚的州工伤赔偿计划，则更多，这仍然是我们目前业务中增长最快的部分。

Customers choose us because of our deep expertise, consistent execution and outstanding service, which leads to superior outcomes. A superior outcome in some cases, could be mitigating a loss or avoiding a loss all together. It may also result from quicker return to work, more efficient medical delivery or greater employee satisfaction. In fact, we tailor our offerings to provide customized service and increased value for our clients. Our teams can prioritize the company's objectives from brand protection, customer loyalty or getting employees back to work sooner. We can execute because our claim resolution managers are organized around client and claim type.

客户选择我们是因为我们深厚的专业知识、一贯的执行力和卓越的服务，从而带来卓越的成果。在某些情况下，卓越的成果可能是减轻损失或完全避免损失。也可能源于更快的返工、更高效的医疗服务或更高的员工满意度。事实上，我们量身定制我们的产品，为客户提供定制化服务并增加价值。我们的团队可以优先考虑公司的目标，例如品牌保护、客户忠诚度或让员工更快地重返工作岗位。我们能够执行，因为我们的索赔解决经理是围绕客户和索赔类型组织的。

For example, we don't assign a resolution manager that handles slip and fall claims to a large trucking loss. Rather, our offerings are designed to align with client expectations of the best outcome. Our claims resolution managers also have access to proprietary industry-leading technology to enable them to achieve the best outcomes. The tools we have developed focus on what matters most to our clients supporting and complementing our professionals. This includes using our data to guide decision-making throughout the life of a claim, performance benchmarking tools analytical reports, easy to access claim status and financial information and a simple process for the exchange of information.

例如，我们不会将处理滑倒索赔的理赔经理指派给大型货运损失案件。相反，我们的服务旨在与客户对最佳结果的期望保持一致。我们的理赔经理还可以使用专有的行业领先技术，以帮助他们实现最佳结果。我们开发的工具专注于对客户最重要的事情，为我们的专业人员提供支持和补充。这包括在索赔的整个生命周期中使用我们的数据来指导决策、绩效基准测试工具、分析报告、易于访问的索赔状态和财务信息以及简化的信息交换流程。

Our Rims platform, LUMINOS, has consistently been recognized as the best in our industry winning awards year in and year out. And like other areas of Gallagher, we continue to refine and enhance our systems and processes. Recently, we've introduced more machine learning and AI capabilities which we expect will improve risk and claim management performance.

我们的 RIMS 平台 LUMINOS 一直被公认为业内最佳，年复一年地获奖。与 Gallagher 的其他领域一样，我们不断改进和提升我们的系统和流程。最近，我们引入了更多的机器学习和人工智能功能，我们预计这将提高风险和索赔管理绩效。

Today, about 90% of our U.S. claims are handled by -- excuse me, today, about 90% of U.S. claims are still handled by insurance carriers. So there is a large potential market for our insurance carrier services. And the opportunity outside the U.S. is also significant. In fact, many underwriting enterprises are growing and at the same time, are faced with aging claim systems and recruitment challenges.

如今，我们约 90% 的美国索赔由——抱歉，如今，约 90% 的美国索赔仍由保险公司处理。因此，我们的保险公司服务存在巨大的潜在市场。美国以外的机会也同样巨大。事实上，许多承保企业正在发展壮大，但同时也面临着索赔系统老化和招聘方面的挑战。

Outsourcing a portion of their claims handling can help them address both of these issues. Another potential compelling opportunity for insurance carriers is our specialist runoff capabilities. It allows underwriting enterprises to move a large group of legacy claims to our platform, which can result in better outcomes and reduced loss adjustment expense as carriers reduce or eliminate claims infrastructure that's no longer needed.

外包部分索赔处理业务可以帮助他们解决这两个问题。对保险公司而言，另一个潜在的极具吸引力的机会是我们的专业径流能力。它允许承保企业将大量遗留索赔转移到我们的平台，这可以带来更好的结果并降低损失理算费用，因为保险公司减少或消除了不再需要的索赔基础设施。

Moving to mergers and acquisitions. The TBA industry is much more consolidated than the highly fragmented brokerage market. So the opportunity set for mergers is less. With that said, we're actively looking for potential merger partners that expand our offerings and deepen our expertise. Let me provide 3 illustrations. First, our February acquisition of WK Webster, a marine and transit claims specialist, with operations across the U.S., the U.K., Europe and Asia, it expands our footprint and provides comprehensive services to insurers and self-insured corporations globally.

转向并购。与高度分散的经纪市场相比，TBA（第三方管理）行业要集中得多。因此，并购的机会较少。话虽如此，我们正在积极寻找能够扩展我们产品并深化我们专业知识的潜在并购伙伴。让我举三个例子。首先，我们二月份收购了 WK Webster，这是一家海事和运输索赔专家，业务遍及美国、英国、欧洲和亚洲，它扩大了我们的业务范围，并为全球保险公司和自保公司提供全面的服务。

Second, our late '24 acquisition of Caytons Law. Here, we added to our capabilities for commercial, financial and professional liability insurance across the U.K. Third, our December 23rd merger with My Plan Manager in Australia. It's the leading provider of claim and administration support services to participants in Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme. The merger enhances our capabilities adds to our relationships throughout Australia and provides us with opportunities for growth. So we use M&A as a strategic tool to add to our offerings across all of our major geographies.

其次，我们于 24 年底收购了 Caytons Law。通过此次收购，我们增强了在英国各地提供商业、金融和职业责任保险的能力。第三，我们于 12 月 23 日与澳大利亚的 My Plan Manager 合并。它是澳大利亚国家残疾保险计划参与者的领先索赔和行政支持服务提供商。此次合并增强了我们的能力，巩固了我们在整个澳大利亚的关系，并为我们提供了增长机会。因此，我们将并购作为一种战略工具，以增加我们在所有主要地区的业务。

Moving to some comments on the first quarter of 2025. Let me provide you with some data points on what we're seeing through February. First, client retention remains excellent. Frankly, we just don't lose a lot of customers due to our expertise, outstanding service and industry-leading tools. Second, our new business pipeline remains very strong. Our value proposition of superior outcomes is very important as prospects react to cost pressures across their businesses. And third, new claims are rising. Overall, accounts are flattish year-over-year, mostly driven by declines in property-related classes, while general liability, auto and work comp claims trends are up slightly.

接下来谈谈 2025 年第一季度的一些情况。让我向您提供一些截至 2 月份我们观察到的数据点。首先，客户保留率仍然非常出色。坦率地说，凭借我们的专业知识、卓越的服务和行业领先的工具，我们很少流失客户。其次，我们的新业务储备仍然非常强劲。随着潜在客户应对其业务中的成本压力，我们卓越成果的价值主张变得非常重要。第三，新增索赔正在上升。总体而言，账户数量同比持平，这主要是由于与财产相关的类别有所下降，而一般责任险、汽车险和工伤赔偿险的索赔趋势略有上升。

Pulling it all together, we're expecting a solid first quarter organic of about 5% and adjusted EBITDAC margin around 20.5%. As we think about the full year, we still believe we will be in that 6% to 8% range and margins right around the 20.5% level. That would be another fantastic year. Looking ahead further, I believe the business is in great shape due to our continued investment in new claims resolution managers and an outstanding group of seasoned leaders.

总而言之，我们预计第一季度有机增长将达到约 5%，调整后的 EBITDAC 利润率约为 20.5%。展望全年，我们仍然相信我们将处于 6% 至 8% 的范围内，利润率约为 20.5% 的水平。这将又是一个辉煌的一年。展望未来，我相信由于我们对新的索赔解决经理的持续投资以及一批经验丰富的杰出领导者，该业务状况良好。

The embracing of new technology that further enhances and improves the claim experience, the further leveraging of new services, including our enhanced marine capabilities and our integrated industry solutions the expansion of our products and offerings, including broadening of our specialty insurance capabilities to cover more of our existing clients and potential customers' exposures.

拥抱新技术，进一步提升和改善索赔体验；进一步利用新服务，包括我们增强的海事能力和综合行业解决方案；扩展我们的产品和服务，包括扩大我们的专业保险能力，以覆盖更多现有客户和潜在客户的风险敞口。

Our efficient client-centric platform, making us the provider of choice and our compassionate and client service-focused culture, which keeps client satisfaction at very high levels. As you can tell, I am very bullish about our long-term prospects.

我们高效的以客户为中心的平台，使我们成为首选供应商，以及我们富有同情心且以客户服务为中心的企业文化，使客户满意度保持在非常高的水平。正如您所知，我对我们的长期前景非常乐观。

Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to our CFO, Doug Howell. Doug?

好的。我现在就讲到这里，接下来交给我们的首席财务官道格·豪厄尔。道格？

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

Thanks, Scott, and hello, everyone. Today, I'll cover 4 topics: First, I'll do a recap of the revenue -- organic revenue and market commentary made by each of our business unit leaders and roll it up for the quarter. Second, I'll provide some comments on '25 margins. Third, I'll give you some sound bites from the updated CFO commentary document, and then I'll wrap up with my typical comments on cash, M&A and capital management.

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

谢谢，斯科特，大家好。今天，我将涵盖四个主题：首先，我将回顾一下我们每个业务部门领导所做的收入——有机收入和市场评论，并将其汇总到本季度。其次，我将对 25 年的利润率发表一些评论。第三，我将从更新的首席财务官评论文件中提供一些摘要，然后我将以我对现金、并购和资本管理的典型评论作为总结。

Okay, to the business unit organic revenue recap. Mike, Patrick and Tom, all provided you with positive outlooks on our global P&C and reinsurance brokerage operations. Across each of our business units, the teams continued to deliver strong new business production and excellent client retention and deserves a special shout out to the reinsurance team that had a fantastic January 1 renewal season.

好的，关于业务部门有机收入回顾。迈克、帕特里克和汤姆都对我们的全球财产意外险和再保险经纪业务给出了积极的展望。在我们每个业务部门，团队都持续实现了强劲的新业务增长和出色的客户保留率，特别值得一提的是再保险团队，他们在 1 月 1 日的续保季表现出色。

As for renewal premium changes captured within our data, we are seeing some moderation within property lines and yet continued steady increases in casualty lines. These are the same primary P&C trends that we have been discussing for the past few quarters. You also heard from the team that in many cases, clients are using potential property savings to opt in and just buy more insurance and more cover. We also continue to see a bifurcation in renewal premiums between small and middle market accounts versus larger accounts.

至于我们数据中记录的续保保费变化，我们看到财产险种有所放缓，而意外险种则持续稳定增长。这些与我们过去几个季度一直在讨论的主要财产意外险趋势相同。您还从团队那里了解到，在许多情况下，客户正在利用潜在的财产险节省来选择加入并购买更多的保险和更大的保障范围。我们还继续看到中小市场账户与大型账户在续保保费方面存在分化。

The small and medium accounts seeing higher renewal premium changes than accounts paying more than $1 million a year in premium. This trend is most apparent in property lines, while casualty increases are actually more uniform by client size. First quarter audits endorsements and cancellations are still trending nicely positive, indicating continued solid underlying business activity. So as Pat said, we continue to see a favorable economic backdrop. As we consider all this information, it feels like our global P&C units combined might post first quarter organic somewhere in the 9% to 10% range.

中小型账户的续保保费变化高于年保费超过 100 万美元的账户。这一趋势在财产险方面最为明显，而意外险的增长实际上按客户规模来看更为统一。第一季度的审计、批单和注销仍呈良好积极趋势，表明基础业务活动持续稳健。因此，正如帕特所说，我们继续看到有利的经济背景。综合考虑所有这些信息，我们感觉我们的全球财产意外险部门合并后的第一季度有机增长可能在 9% 到 10% 的范围内。

Next, Bill just walked you through our employee benefits and HR consulting business. He has seen strong net new business activity, continued increases in medical cost trends and solid demand for our consulting products and offerings. Accordingly, we see first quarter organic above 7% within our global benefits operation. Combining P&C and benefits. It's looking like first quarter brokerage segment organic will be in that 8% to 9% range. That would be a fantastic quarter. Looking forward, we continue to hear concerns surrounding casualty reserves and loss cost trends. So we still believe meaningful rate increases in casualty could continue over the next few years.

接下来，比尔刚刚向您介绍了我们的员工福利和人力资源咨询业务。他看到了强劲的净新业务活动、医疗成本趋势的持续增长以及对我们咨询产品和服务的稳定需求。因此，我们预计全球福利业务第一季度的有机增长将超过 7%。结合财产意外险和福利业务，看起来第一季度经纪业务部门的有机增长将在 8% 至 9% 的范围内。这将是一个非常棒的季度。展望未来，我们继续听到有关意外险准备金和损失成本趋势的担忧。因此，我们仍然相信未来几年意外险费率的显着增长可能会持续。

As for property, future property rates are a little harder to predict. The impact of the costly California wildfires and that we are entering into the U.S. tornado and hurricane season naturally are causing some carriers to carefully watch property rates, too. A word on tariffs. It's too early to see any impact on our daily indications of an impact to our clients' business activity and also, it seems that many believe the U.S. economy is resilient enough to withstand tariffs that would cause a significant slowdown. So while it's tough to make a call on that today, it doesn't seem to be too concerning to us.

至于财产险，未来的财产险费率更难预测。代价高昂的加州野火以及我们即将进入美国龙卷风和飓风季节的影响，自然也导致一些保险公司密切关注财产险费率。关于关税说一句。现在判断关税对我们客户业务活动的日常指标有任何影响还为时过早，而且，似乎许多人认为美国经济具有足够的弹性来承受可能导致显着放缓的关税。因此，虽然今天很难对此做出判断，但这似乎并不太让我们担心。

On the other hand, we are having a hard time building a case where tariffs don't cause some inflation that in turn puts some upward pressure on loss costs. Historically, our daily indications have been a terrific canary in the coal mine, so we will continue to watch those carefully. So as we sit here today, with first quarter organic in that 8% to 9% range, combined with continued casualty rate increases storm season coming, inflation still looming and no signs of a significant economic slowdown, we remain comfortable with our 6% to 8% outlook for full year '25 Brokerage segment organic growth. As for the Risk Management segment, Scott just told you first quarter organic is likely to come in around 5%. And for full year, we're still expecting Risk Management segment to again be in that 6% to 8% range.

另一方面，我们很难建立一个关税不会导致通货膨胀，进而对损失成本造成上行压力的案例。从历史上看，我们的日常指标一直是煤矿中的金丝雀，因此我们将继续密切关注这些指标。因此，就目前而言，第一季度有机增长率在 8% 至 9% 之间，加上持续的意外险费率上涨、风暴季节即将来临、通货膨胀仍然迫在眉睫，并且没有经济大幅放缓的迹象，我们对 25 年全年经纪业务部门 6% 至 8% 的有机增长前景仍然充满信心。至于风险管理部门，斯科特刚刚告诉您第一季度的有机增长可能在 5% 左右。对于全年，我们仍然预计风险管理部门将再次处于 6% 至 8% 的范围内。

So let me shift now to our Brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC margins. We still believe we are positioned to expand full year underlying margins by about 60 to 100 basis points if full year organic falls within that 6% to 8% range. So once again, there's no new news here. Of course, that would exclude the impact of the cash we are holding for AssuredPartners.

那么现在让我转向我们的经纪业务部门调整后的 EBITDAC 利润率。我们仍然相信，如果全年有机增长率在 6% 至 8% 的范围内，我们有望将全年基础利润率扩大约 60 至 100 个基点。所以，再次强调，这里没有什么新消息。当然，这不包括我们为 AssuredPartners 持有的现金所产生的影响。

That does create some headline margin noise. So let me unpack that for a minute. For first quarter '25, we estimate over 300 basis points of margin expansion, but let's break that down. First, organic growth in that 8% to 9% range would drive an underlying margin expansion of about 100 basis points. The roll-in impact from M&A from some of our tuck-in M&A partners tempers that expansion by about 20 basis points since those tuck-ins just don't have business that is seasonal as Gallagher towards the first quarter.

这确实会产生一些头条利润率噪音。所以让我花点时间解释一下。对于 25 年第一季度，我们估计利润率将扩大超过 300 个基点，但让我们分解一下。首先，8% 至 9% 范围内的有机增长将推动约 100 个基点的基础利润率扩张。由于这些补强型并购的业务不像 Gallagher 那样在第一季度具有季节性，因此来自我们一些补强型并购合作伙伴的并购的滚动影响使该扩张减少了约 20 个基点。

Lower short-term interest rates on our fiduciary assets relative to last year, [ Tempur's ] expansion by about 10 basis points. And finally, interest income earned on AssuredPartners financing cash that we're holding would expand margins by about 250 basis points. As for second quarter, headline margin expansion, it's looking, again, like we'll be pushing 300 basis points, again driven by strong underlying margin expansion and interest income on the cash we're holding for AssuredPartners.

与去年相比，我们信托资产的短期利率较低，[Tempur's] 的扩张约减少了 10 个基点。最后，我们持有的 AssuredPartners 融资现金所产生的利息收入将使利润率扩大约 250 个基点。至于第二季度，头条利润率的扩张，看起来，我们将再次推动 300 个基点，这同样受到强劲的基础利润率扩张和我们为 AssuredPartners 持有的现金所产生的利息收入的推动。

Looking towards the second half of the year, margins are a little bit more challenging to forecast because of potential changes in short-term interest rate, the impact of future role in M&A. And of course, again, the AssuredPartners closing date when that happens. However, there's nothing that we're seeing that causes us to change how we see underlying margin expansion.

展望下半年，由于短期利率可能发生变化、未来并购角色的影响，利润率的预测更具挑战性。当然，还有 AssuredPartners 的交易完成日期。然而，我们目前看到的情况并没有导致我们改变对基础利润率扩张的看法。

Remember how we view that. Quarter in and quarter out, we believe at organic greater than 4%, we should see some underlying margin expansion at 6% organic, maybe 60 basis points of margin expansion and at 8% organic, maybe around 100 basis points of margin expansion. So despite some margin noise from time to time, the punch line really has not changed at all. As for the Risk Management segment, we're expecting 20.5% margin here in the first quarter and around that level for the full year. That would be another terrific year.

记住我们是如何看待这一点的。每个季度，我们都认为，当有机增长率超过 4% 时，我们应该会看到一些基础利润率的扩张；当有机增长率为 6% 时，利润率可能扩张 60 个基点；当有机增长率为 8% 时，利润率可能扩张约 100 个基点。因此，尽管时常会出现一些利润率噪音，但核心观点实际上一点也没有改变。至于风险管理部门，我们预计第一季度的利润率为 20.5%，全年也大致维持在这一水平。这将又是一个了不起的一年。

Now moving to the CFO commentary document that we posted on our Investor Relations website. We'll start on Page 3. This provides you with the usual Brokerage and Risk Management segment modeling helpers. Just a couple of comments here first on FX relative to late January CFO commentary document. The dollar has weakened a bit, mostly against the pound. So just take a look at that and the updated revenue impacts that we provided on that page for the remaining quarters and full year and second, just an annual reminder to take a look at your quarterly brokerage segment noncontrolling interest forecast for '25 as these amounts can vary from quarter-to-quarter.

现在转到我们在投资者关系网站上发布的首席财务官评论文件。我们从第 3 页开始。这为您提供了通常的经纪和风险管理部门建模助手。这里首先对相对于 1 月下旬首席财务官评论文件的外汇情况发表几点评论。美元略有走弱，主要是兑英镑。因此，请查看一下这一点以及我们在该页面上为剩余季度和全年提供的更新后的收入影响。其次，只是年度提醒，请查看您对 25 年季度经纪部门非控制性权益的预测，因为这些金额可能因季度而异。

All right. So let's now flip to Page 4 to the corporate segment outlook. Two items to call out for the quarter. First, we've updated our interest and banking expense estimate to align with where we now expecting the first quarter and second, our expected first quarter acquisition-related expenses are coming in a little more favorable than expected.

好的。那么现在让我们翻到第 4 页，看看公司部门的前景。本季度有两项需要指出。首先，我们更新了利息和银行费用估算，以与我们目前预计的第一季度保持一致；其次，我们预计的第一季度收购相关费用比预期要好一些。

Turning to Page 5. This page shows our tax credit carryforwards. It shows you that over the next few years, we expect to fully utilize our tax credit balances, which were around $770 million at December 31. And it's important to note that all the talk around credits in Washington, D.C. does not look like it poses any threat to our historical credits. So we continue to expect additional cash flow of about $180 million this year and even more in 2026 and later years. And don't forget, this benefit will show up in our cash flow statement rather than our P&L. So it continues to be a really nice cash flow sweetener.

翻到第 5 页。此页显示了我们的税收抵免结转。它向您显示，在未来几年，我们预计将充分利用我们的税收抵免余额，截至 12 月 31 日，该余额约为 7.7 亿美元。值得注意的是，华盛顿特区所有关于抵免的讨论似乎并未对我们的历史抵免构成任何威胁。因此，我们继续预计今年将增加约 1.8 亿美元的现金流，2026 年及以后几年甚至更多。别忘了，这项收益将体现在我们的现金流量表中，而不是损益表中。因此，它仍然是一个非常不错的现金流甜味剂。

Moving to top of Page 6 in our investment income premium finance revenues and fiduciary interest income table. We've updated our forecast to reflect current FX rates in this table and are still assuming 225 basis point rate cuts during '25 and you'll also see that we've added a separate line for interest income. We're earning on cash raise that we're sitting on for the AssuredPartners transaction.

转到第 6 页顶部，我们的投资收入、保费融资收入和信托利息收入表。我们已更新此表中的预测以反映当前汇率，并且仍然假设 25 年期间降息 225 个基点，您还会看到我们为利息收入增加了一个单独的行。我们正在从为 AssuredPartners 交易筹集的现金中赚取利息。

Let me unpack that a bit. To help you maybe refine your models and just get your head around this based on what you're assuming for a closing date. Let me give you a framework to think about the monthly financial impact of sitting on that cash versus having closed AssuredPartners. First, the $13.5 billion that we have to pay is fully invested, which generates about $45 million of monthly pretax interest income on that cash that we're holding.

让我稍微解释一下。为了帮助您根据您假设的截止日期来完善您的模型并理解这一点。让我给您一个框架来思考持有这笔现金与完成 AssuredPartners 交易的每月财务影响。首先，我们必须支付的 135 亿美元已全部投资，这笔我们持有的现金每月产生约 4500 万美元的税前利息收入。

We're paying about $20 million of monthly interest expense on the related borrowings. You net that tax effect that, it ends up about $20 million net after tax or about $0.08 of adjusted EPS earnings per month. On the other hand, how do we -- if we close the AssuredPartners on a pro forma basis, we'd be making around $0.16 to $0.19 a month of adjusted EPS. Let me walk you through how I get to that. First, let's start by taking the AssuredPartner annual pro forma EBITDA of $938 million. You divide that 12, and it gives you about $80 million of EBITDAC earnings a month. Next, deduct that $20 million monthly interest expense and the debt, impact that maybe by $3 million of monthly depreciation expense. And then when you tax effect it, you'll get about $40 million of monthly after-tax adjusted earnings or that's about $0.16 a share. Then with synergies, that would go to about $0.19 per share.

我们每月为相关借款支付约 2000 万美元的利息支出。将其净税效应计算在内，最终每月税后净收益约为 2000 万美元，或每月调整后每股收益约为 0.08 美元。另一方面，如果我们按备考基准完成 AssuredPartners 交易，我们每月调整后每股收益约为 0.16 美元至 0.19 美元。让我向您解释一下我是如何得出这个结论的。首先，让我们从 AssuredPartner 年度备考 EBITDA 9.38 亿美元开始。将其除以 12，每月 EBITDAC 收益约为 8000 万美元。接下来，扣除每月 2000 万美元的利息支出和债务，再可能扣除每月 300 万美元的折旧费用。然后，在考虑税收效应后，您将获得每月约 4000 万美元的税后调整后收益，即每股约 0.16 美元。然后，加上协同效应，每股收益将达到约 0.19 美元。

So the punchline is it cost us about $0.08 to $0.10 of EPS for each month of delayed closing, which, frankly, is very manageable financially. So we hope that helps you kind of get your head around the impact of sitting on that cash while we wait to get the acquisition approved and closed as you build your models. So let's move down on to Page 6 to the M&A rollover revenue table. The pink section obviously excludes AssuredPartners, and it shows we're expecting around $75 million of first quarter rollover revenue in our brokerage segment and about $10 million in our Risk Management segment.

所以结论是，每延迟一个月完成交易，我们的每股收益就会损失约 0.08 至 0.10 美元，坦率地说，这在财务上是完全可以控制的。因此，我们希望这能帮助您在等待收购获得批准和完成期间，更好地理解持有这笔现金的影响，以便您构建模型。那么让我们转到第 6 页的并购展期收入表。粉色部分显然不包括 AssuredPartners，它显示我们预计第一季度经纪业务部门的展期收入约为 7500 万美元，风险管理部门约为 1000 万美元。

And that's what deals through that we've closed through yesterday. There shouldn't be much change given that we are close to the end of the quarter on that. So just make sure you reflect these estimates in your models. And then you also need to make a pick for the remaining quarters of '25 and then you're picked for when you think AssuredPartners might close.

这就是我们截至昨天已完成的交易。鉴于我们已接近本季度末，这方面应该不会有太大变化。因此，请确保在您的模型中反映这些估算。然后，您还需要为 25 年剩余的季度做出选择，然后为您认为 AssuredPartners 可能完成交易的时间做出选择。

So let me wrap up with my typical comments on cash, debt and M&A. At the end of February, available cash on hand was around $15.5 billion. Most of that is earmarked for Assured. Our current cash position, combined with a strong expected free cash flow in the rest of the year, position, in my opinion, well for our pipeline of M&A opportunities. In total, we estimate around $16 billion of fund M&A during '25 and nearly $5 billion in '26.

那么让我用我对现金、债务和并购的典型评论来总结。截至 2 月底，手头可用现金约为 155 亿美元。其中大部分指定用于 Assured。在我看来，我们目前的现金状况，加上今年剩余时间内强劲的预期自由现金流，为我们的并购机会储备了良好的条件。总的来说，我们估计 25 年将有约 160 亿美元的并购资金，26 年将有近 50 亿美元。

So those are my prepared comments. We're off to a terrific start in '25 and the team is really executing well on all of our strategic priorities. Our full year '25 organic growth is unchanged. Margins are increasing nicely. We see opportunities there. The M&A pipeline is strong, and most importantly, our culture continues to really propel us forward. should be another fantastic year for us.

以上就是我准备好的评论。我们在 25 年有了一个了不起的开端，团队在所有战略重点上都执行得非常好。我们 25 年全年的有机增长保持不变。利润率正在良好增长。我们在那里看到了机会。并购渠道强劲，最重要的是，我们的文化继续真正推动我们前进。对我们来说，这应该又是一个辉煌的一年。

So operator, I think we're ready now to move to Q&A.

那么，接线员，我想我们现在可以进入问答环节了。

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

接线员

[操作员说明] 我们的第一个问题来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan。

Elyse Greenspan Wells Fargo Securities

My first question is on the reinsurance business, mid-teens organic growth, pretty strong number for the first quarter. Can you just provide a little bit more detail on just the components of what's driving that? I think you mentioned some new business wins. Can you just help us understand what's price retention and new business and just what helped with that strong number in the first quarter?

Elyse Greenspan 富国银行证券公司

我的第一个问题是关于再保险业务，第一季度实现了百分之十几的有机增长，这是一个相当强劲的数字。您能否提供更多关于驱动因素的细节？我想您提到了一些新业务的斩获。您能否帮助我们理解价格保留、新业务以及促成第一季度强劲数字的因素是什么？

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

Yes. This is Doug. I'll take that one real quick. Listen, I think it's across the board. We've had some really terrific nice new business wins. Our teams are really showing well against the competition there. Retention is holding up and we're delivering some admittedly some price breaks for our customers. But at the same time, they're actually coming into the market and buying more cover. So it's a mix of better new business, less lost business, delivering some price increases that allows us to redeploy our customers' monies into additional coverages, all leads to a terrific work. The team is really, really hitting it out of the park.

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

是的。我是道格。我很快回答这个问题。听着，我认为这是全方位的。我们赢得了一些非常棒的新业务。我们的团队在竞争中表现出色。客户保留率保持良好，而且我们确实为客户提供了一些价格优惠。但与此同时，他们实际上正在进入市场并购买更多的保险。因此，这是更好新业务、更少业务流失、以及一些价格上涨的组合，这使我们能够将客户的资金重新部署到额外的保险范围中，所有这些都带来了出色的业绩。团队的表现确实非常出色。

Elyse Greenspan Wells Fargo Securities

And then my second question is on AssuredPartners. How do the economics of the deal relative to the accretion that you outlined changed that gets pushed back if at all? And then is AP still pursuing M&A transactions during this perhaps lengthier regulatory process? And can you provide an update on just how their revenue growth has been since you announced the transaction?

Elyse Greenspan 富国银行证券公司

我的第二个问题是关于 AssuredPartners。相对于您概述的增值，交易的经济效益会因为推迟（如果会的话）而发生怎样的变化？在可能更长的监管过程中，AP 是否仍在进行并购交易？您能否提供自宣布交易以来其收入增长情况的最新信息？

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

I don't think it delays the economics. If you think of it at cost -- if you think it cost us $20 million bucks a month to sit on it for a little bit. And if you think we're delayed 6 months, I'm going to make that up. Maybe if you want to factor all that into our pricing, it adds $100 million of effective purchase price differential. On the other hand, they're growing, so we're going to get more EBITDA as a result of that. So I would say, economically, it doesn't change the terrific economics that we got on the deal.

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

我不认为这会延迟经济效益。如果你从成本角度考虑——如果你认为我们每个月要为此花费 2000 万美元。如果你认为我们延迟了 6 个月，我会弥补这一点。也许如果你想把所有这些都计入我们的定价，它会增加 1 亿美元的有效购买价格差异。另一方面，他们正在增长，因此我们将因此获得更多的 EBITDA。所以我会说，从经济角度来看，这并不会改变我们在这笔交易中获得的巨大经济效益。

Second of all, underlying their business is performing in line with our business. I think that their specialty businesses are performing well. We don't have deep inside set. So this is anecdotal on that because we have to be careful about what we really know. But the answer is this business is performing very well. We're not seeing significant or any producer departures that were being told from that. So I think the business is holding in there well. And the teams are still really actively engaged on complying with these additional information requests and are taking it diligently, and we're making terrific progress on that.

其次，他们的基础业务表现与我们的业务一致。我认为他们的专业业务表现良好。我们没有深入了解内情。所以这只是传闻，因为我们必须对我们真正了解的情况保持谨慎。但答案是这项业务表现非常好。我们没有看到任何重大的或任何我们被告知的生产商流失。所以我认为这项业务保持良好。团队仍然非常积极地配合这些额外的信息请求，并且正在认真对待，我们在这方面取得了巨大进展。

J. Gallagher Chairman & CEO

This is Pat. While we're not allowed to be operating the businesses together, Clearly, there's a lot of interaction between the 2 teams. The enthusiasm has not waned one bit. In fact, if anything, the enthusiasm is growing. As the market changes a bit, they'll just chomping at the bit to get to our tools.

J. Gallagher 董事长兼首席执行官

我是帕特。虽然我们不允许一起运营业务，但显然，两个团队之间有很多互动。热情丝毫未减。事实上，如果说有什么不同的话，那就是热情正在增长。随着市场发生一些变化，他们会迫不及待地想使用我们的工具。

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

Now they see this as a great way to both of us to actually provide better value to the customer that's buying the insurers. This is all -- this is a customer-centric merger that they will have better opportunities to get better coverages. So that enthusiasm tends to build every day.

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

现在他们认为这对我们双方来说都是一个很好的方式，可以为购买保险的客户提供更好的价值。这一切——这是一次以客户为中心的合并，他们将有更好的机会获得更好的保险。所以这种热情与日俱增。

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

接线员

我们的下一个问题来自 BMO 资本市场的 Mike Zaremski。

Michael Zaremski BMO Capital Markets Equity Research

A couple follow-ups on the Assured deal. In terms of the time frame, just to be clear, is it -- am I right that the agency has 30 days after you all respond? Or maybe you can update us on time frame. So by you all saying it will be a second half of the year close? Does that -- maybe you can tell us your assumptions -- are you tell us saying you're not going to respond to them for a few months? Or are you putting more cushion in for maybe further back and forth? And I guess just related. Does this waiting period cause a delay on any other deals that have to go through the HSR Act such as the Woodruff Sawyer deal or just other deals that would be in the pipe?

Michael Zaremski BMO 资本市场股票研究

关于 Assured 交易有几个后续问题。在时间框架方面，澄清一下，是不是——我说的对吗，在你们都回复后，该机构有 30 天的时间？或者也许您可以向我们更新一下时间框架。那么你们说它将在下半年完成交易是什么意思？这是否——也许您可以告诉我们您的假设——您是说您几个月内不会回复他们吗？还是您为可能出现的进一步反复留出了更多缓冲时间？我想这只是相关的。这个等待期是否会导致任何其他必须通过 HSR 法案的交易延迟，例如 Woodruff Sawyer 交易或其他正在筹备中的交易？

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

All right. Let's work backwards on it. We already have HSR approval on Woodruff Sawyer. So now that's just the matter of completing the conditions to close, but we don't see any barriers on that. I think we're waiting for maybe one approval in the U.K. on that. So second of all, the agreement that we have AssuredPartners does allow us to continue our M&A strategy. There are many jurisdictions that are just that we can buy as much as we want there in the U.S. I think there's a pretty high cap on that. So we don't see that as being an impediment.

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

好的。让我们倒着来分析。我们已经获得了 Woodruff Sawyer 的 HSR 批准。所以现在只是完成交易条件的问题，但我们没有看到任何障碍。我想我们可能还在等待英国方面的一项批准。其次，我们与 AssuredPartners 达成的协议确实允许我们继续我们的并购战略。在美国，有很多司法管辖区允许我们随心所欲地购买，我认为这方面有一个相当高的上限。所以我们不认为这是一个障碍。

The AssuredPartners team is still actively looking at acquisitions. Obviously, we have the right to approve those under the SPA on that to agree to them, but the teams are -- they're working on their own. We're not -- we're out there competing with them day in and day out on M&A acquisition opportunities. Like we did before, but frankly, we didn't bump up against them that much in the past. It was only like 6% of the opportunities. The information requests that we're working on with the DOJ, it will take us a while to accumulate that information and provide it. And then I think that starts a 30-day clock after we provide that information. It's going to require us to do that and also the AssuredPartners folks to do it.

AssuredPartners 团队仍在积极寻找收购机会。显然，根据 SPA，我们有权批准这些交易，但团队是——他们是独立工作的。我们不是——我们每天都在并购收购机会上与他们竞争。就像我们以前做的那样，但坦率地说，过去我们与他们的冲突并不多。大概只有 6% 的机会。我们正在与司法部处理的信息请求，我们需要一段时间来收集和提供这些信息。然后我认为在我们提供信息后，会开始一个为期 30 天的计时。这需要我们去做，也需要 AssuredPartners 的人去做。

So they're working down their path, we're working on ours. I think for purposes of preparing all this information, we've assumed a mid-second half close. So I think somewhere, I think for doing the math in a lot of these documents, we're hoping that we can get this done in the fall some time. That help?

所以他们在走他们的路，我们在走我们的路。我认为为了准备所有这些信息，我们假设在下半年中期完成交易。所以我认为，在很多这些文件中进行计算时，我们希望能在秋季的某个时候完成这件事。有帮助吗？

Michael Zaremski BMO Capital Markets Equity Research

Yes, that helps. I appreciate it, Doug. My follow-up maybe moving over to the competitive environment, more specifically on wholesale. So some of the prepared commentary, you kind of painted a picture that the wholesale pricing moderation was somewhat similar to what we're seeing in the standard marketplace, at least U.S. standard marketplace.

Michael Zaremski BMO 资本市场股票研究

是的，有帮助。谢谢你，道格。我的后续问题可能转向竞争环境，更具体地说是批发业务。在一些准备好的评论中，您描绘的情况是，批发定价的放缓与我们在标准市场（至少是美国标准市场）看到的情况有些相似。

I'm curious, is it surprising versus historical to see moderation in pricing fairly meaningfully on the property side, but the data still points to actual flows staying positive, like moving into the E&S marketplace. Is there anything kind of going on we should be thinking about because I thought historically, when prices soften, you start seeing kind of just a an outflow of business back into the standard marketplace? Or maybe I'm just not -- maybe I don't have enough data to any comments would be helpful.

我很好奇，与历史相比，在财产险方面看到定价出现相当明显的放缓，但数据仍然表明实际流量保持正增长，例如流入 E&S（超额和剩余险）市场，这是否令人惊讶。是否有什么我们应该考虑的情况，因为我记得历史上，当价格疲软时，业务会开始流出并回到标准市场？或者也许我只是没有——也许我没有足够的数据，任何评论都会有帮助。

Michael Pesch CEO of Global Brokerage of Americas

Yes. Mike, this is Mike Pesch. So maybe I could paint a picture for you in the E&S marketplace. So just at a very high level, the most recent report showed that surplus lines premium increased from $116 billion in '23 to $130 billion in '24. It's now about 24% of the overall P&C marketplace in the U.S. and we don't see that trend changing. Now if you get into the mix business, whether it's property GL, there might be some shifting between GL and property in and out of the admitted marketplace into E&S. But there are still -- and you heard in my comments, there is still a tremendous need or submission flow into RPS is still up year-to-date in the mid- to high single-digit range.

Michael Pesch 美洲全球经纪业务首席执行官

是的。迈克，我是迈克·佩什。也许我可以为您描绘一下 E&S 市场的情况。总的来说，最新的报告显示，剩余险保费从 23 年的 1160 亿美元增加到 24 年的 1300 亿美元。目前约占美国整体财产意外险市场的 24%，我们认为这一趋势不会改变。现在，如果您进入混合业务，无论是财产险还是一般责任险，在许可市场和 E&S 市场之间，一般责任险和财产险之间可能会有一些转移。但是仍然——正如您在我的评论中听到的那样，对 RPS 的巨大需求或提交流量仍然存在，年初至今仍保持中高个位数的增长。

So we're still seeing the inflow of submission activity and I think that's speaking to some of my comments about the marketplace, very good accounts with a lot of controls in place may have an opportunity to move into the admitted marketplace. But opportunities, whether it's property or GL where there's less controls are still going to have a need for the E&S marketplace.

因此，我们仍然看到提交活动的流入，我认为这印证了我对市场的一些评论，即那些拥有大量控制措施的优质账户可能有机会进入许可市场。但是，无论是财产险还是一般责任险，那些控制较少的机会仍然需要 E&S 市场。

And then I'll just throw one other comment in there around the rate environment. Remember, the rate environment might be coming down a bit in property, but you also have the convening factor of valuations and cost of building materials would specifically is increasing. And so there's an offset there, because most underwriters, whether it's in the E&S or in the admitted marketplace are looking at valuations in a hard way right now because of the fact that those building materials are increasing.

然后我再补充一点关于费率环境的评论。请记住，财产险的费率环境可能有所下降，但您还需要考虑估值和建筑材料成本（特别是木材）上涨的综合因素。因此这里存在一个抵消因素，因为大多数承保人，无论是在 E&S 市场还是在许可市场，目前都在严格审查估值，因为建筑材料正在上涨。

So we still see positive momentum both in our submission count and in the general progression of business moving into the E&S marketplace. They want specialty coverages that are tailor-made to the clients' needs.

因此，我们仍然看到我们的提交数量和业务向 E&S 市场总体进展的积极势头。他们需要为客户量身定制的专业保险。

Operator

Next question is from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

接线员

下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

David Motemaden Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

Pat, you guys had mentioned that you guys were surprised by the second request for information. I mean I was as well. I guess do you have any sense in terms of like are there any particular jurisdictions where there might be concentrations of revenue? Or do you have any sort of sense in terms of like what may have caused that?

David Motemaden Evercore ISI 机构股票

帕特，你们提到过你们对第二次信息请求感到惊讶。我的意思是，我也是。我想知道你们是否知道在哪些特定的司法管辖区可能存在收入集中的情况？或者你们是否知道可能是什么原因造成的？

J. Gallagher Chairman & CEO

No, I don't think so, David. The fact is this is one of the largest transactions in our space. And I think that it makes some sense from a regulatory perspective to just say, could we please take a look at this and the way they do that is to send a second request. So while we were surprised because we're all dealing in the business every single day, realize this doesn't really impact market share. It doesn't show us when we look across our book of business and their book of business and have outside help from economists doesn't show any place that we've can see that it would be anticompetitive. But it does make some sense that a regulator would say, "I want to look at this." So we're not really perplexed.

J. Gallagher 董事长兼首席执行官

不，我不这么认为，大卫。事实是，这是我们这个领域最大的交易之一。而且我认为从监管的角度来看，说“我们能看一下这个吗？”是有道理的，他们这样做的方式就是发送第二次请求。因此，尽管我们感到惊讶，因为我们每天都在处理业务，但要意识到这并不会真正影响市场份额。当我们审视我们的业务组合和他们的业务组合，并得到经济学家的外部帮助时，它并没有向我们显示任何我们认为会产生反竞争行为的地方。但监管机构说“我想看看这个”确实有些道理。所以我们并没有感到非常困惑。

They haven't given us any indication that we're concerned about this level or that level of ownership of premium, income or revenue. So it's just a matter of trying to fill out for them, the requests that they've given. And just strictly keep hitting it right down the middle of the fairway, give the regulator with the -- and look, we're used to living in a regulated environment on a global basis. So we understand this, and we're good with working with regulators. So it's just a matter of giving them what they're requesting and we think we'll be able to move on.

他们没有向我们表明他们担心保费、收入或营收的这个水平或那个水平的所有权。所以这只是一个为他们填写他们提出的请求的问题。并且严格地保持在正确的轨道上，向监管机构提供——看，我们习惯于在全球范围内在受监管的环境中运营。所以我们理解这一点，并且我们擅长与监管机构合作。所以这只是一个向他们提供他们所要求的东西的问题，我们认为我们将能够继续前进。

David Motemaden Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe second question, just on -- it sounds like you're obviously getting some share gains in reinsurance as pricing has moderated. I'm wondering if you could talk about just the trajectory of share gains within the primary business as RPC has moderated a bit here over the last few quarters and into the first quarter of this year. Have you seen your new business wins tick up? And is there anything you could provide from a quantification of that over the last like 6 or 12 months?

David Motemaden Evercore ISI 机构股票

明白了。这很有帮助。然后也许是第二个问题，只是关于——听起来随着定价的放缓，你们显然在再保险领域获得了一些份额增长。我想知道您是否可以谈谈在过去几个季度以及今年第一季度 RPC（每次点击收入）有所放缓的情况下，主要业务中份额增长的轨迹。您是否看到新业务的斩获有所增加？您能否提供过去 6 或 12 个月对此的量化数据？

J. Gallagher Chairman & CEO

I don't have specific increase in terms of new business wins or what have you in front of me, but I can tell you a couple of things. I think the combination of what the reinsurance folks and our retail folks are doing together, which we said when we bought this thing was going to be a powerful element in our battle in the field. And that has clearly been the case. This is not just about going into insurance companies and saying, "Hey, we put this much in the front door, we like so." It really is looking across the portfolio with both our insurance company partners as to where we can be helpful but also seeing where -- what we're doing as a reinsurer can help our retail people. And that conversation is going back and forth all the time. And that's been helpful.

J. Gallagher 董事长兼首席执行官

我面前没有关于新业务斩获或类似方面的具体增长数据，但我可以告诉您几件事。我认为再保险团队和我们的零售团队共同努力的结合，正如我们收购这家公司时所说的那样，将成为我们在战场上的一股强大力量。事实也确实如此。这不仅仅是去保险公司说：“嘿，我们投入了这么多，我们喜欢这样。”这实际上是与我们的保险公司合作伙伴一起审视整个产品组合，看看我们可以在哪些方面提供帮助，同时也看看我们作为再保险公司所做的事情如何能够帮助我们的零售人员。这种对话一直在进行，而且很有帮助。

Number two, when they came aboard, the Willis Re folks felt that they needed a significant investment in capabilities that were data and IT related. And we have spent a tremendous amount of time and money, giving them what they have prescribed or have said it's going to be a competitive advantage. Frankly, they're proving it. They're showing that, in fact, if they make it easier for their people to use the data and analytic capabilities that they've said they need and that we can provide using our unique One Source data, which really is a -- it's a data lake that includes information from our trading positions all around the world that it makes them better as a competitor. Heavy use of AI in that business being able to work off a new workbench.

第二，当他们加入时，Willis Re 的人认为他们需要在与数据和信息技术相关的能力方面进行大量投资。我们已经投入了大量的时间和金钱，为他们提供了他们所规定或声称将成为竞争优势的东西。坦率地说，他们正在证明这一点。他们表明，事实上，如果他们让员工更容易使用他们声称需要并且我们可以利用我们独特的 One Source 数据（这实际上是一个包含来自我们全球交易头寸信息的数据湖）提供的数据和分析能力，那么这将使他们作为竞争对手更具优势。在该业务中大量使用人工智能，能够在一个新的工作台上工作。

So the point is they're showing that they're investing and being better for their customers every day. They are showing that they've got on the street information from our retailers, and they're being very aggressive about going out and saying, "Hey, look, there's a difference at Gallagher now. Let us tell you what it is, and they're seeing a lot of new wins."

所以关键是他们表明他们每天都在为客户投资并做得更好。他们表明他们从我们的零售商那里获得了市场信息，并且他们非常积极地走出去说：“嘿，看，Gallagher 现在不一样了。让我们告诉您是什么，他们正在看到很多新的胜利。”

Then Doug also hit on the point that while prices may be moderating a bit, people are, in fact, buying more reinsurance, and we're very, very helpful to our clients in showing them where they can do that economically or they should do it based on their accumulations and they're respecting that advice as well. So I see that as being something that we'll continue to see growth. And very, very proud of the team who joined us in that acquisition.

然后道格还提到了这一点，虽然价格可能有所放缓，但人们实际上正在购买更多的再保险，我们在向客户展示他们可以在哪些方面经济地做到这一点，或者他们应该根据自己的累积风险来做到这一点方面非常有帮助，而且他们也尊重这些建议。所以我认为这将是我们继续看到增长的领域。并且为在那次收购中加入我们的团队感到非常自豪。

这种咨询类的中介会不会被AI取代？

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

Yes. I'll throw a couple of numbers behind it. I'm just kind of looking at our new loss spread differential, the spreadsheet here. And like in the U.S., and again, this is through February year-to-date, we're up 70 basis points in spread differential in the U.S., up 2% in U.K. and in Ireland. 2 points and the spread differential is up 2% in Canada. So as I come across the thing here, there is a spread differential that's happening. And again, we would think as we show our awareness that we would stand and lose less business and gain new more business opportunities. So we are seeing across the board better new business versus lost business trends. So it's not anecdotal.

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

是的。我来提供一些数据支持。我正在看我们的新业务与流失业务的价差，这里的电子表格。比如在美国，同样，这是截至二月份年初至今的数据，我们在美国的价差增加了 70 个基点，在英国和爱尔兰增加了 2%。加拿大增加了 2 个百分点，价差增加了 2%。所以当我看到这些数据时，确实存在价差。而且，我们认为随着我们提高知名度，我们将能够保住并减少业务流失，并获得更多新的业务机会。所以我们全面看到了新业务相对于流失业务的更好趋势。所以这并非传闻。

Operator

The next question is from the line of Alex Scott with Barclays.

接线员

下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Alex Scott。

Taylor Scott Barclays Bank

First one I had is I wanted to see if you could unpack the drivers behind the -- some of the differences you've seen between the smaller end of the market and the larger end of the market. Specifically in retail brokerage? And maybe just your thoughts on what's happening there? Is it more on the property side versus casualty? And what does that underline influences?

Taylor Scott 巴克莱银行

我的第一个问题是，我想看看您是否能详细分析一下您在市场小端和市场大端之间看到的一些差异背后的驱动因素。特别是在零售经纪业务方面？也许谈谈您对那里发生的事情的看法？是更多地体现在财产险方面而不是意外险方面吗？这突显了哪些影响因素？

Michael Pesch CEO of Global Brokerage of Americas

Yes, Alex, this is Mike Pesch. So when you think about our -- the difference between our small and, as you would call, mid to risk management business. I'm just unpacking this a little bit for you, so I get some clarity -- but accounts from a premium change perspective, accounted greater than $100,000 in premium. We're seeing about 5.2%. When you go to the small sector, $0 to $10,000 in premium, it's about 6% -- sorry, that's 2024. In 2025, Year-to-date, the larger accounts are just under 1% and the smaller accounts are closer to 9%.

Michael Pesch 美洲全球经纪业务首席执行官

是的，亚历克斯，我是迈克·佩什。因此，当您考虑我们的小型业务和您所说的中型到风险管理业务之间的差异时。我只是为您稍微详细说明一下，以便更清楚——但从保费变化的角度来看，保费超过 10 万美元的账户。我们看到大约 5.2% 的增长。当您转向小型业务，即保费在 0 到 1 万美元之间的业务，大约是 6%——抱歉，那是 2024 年的数据。到 2025 年年初至今，大型账户的增长略低于 1%，而小型账户的增长接近 9%。

So -- and then everywhere in between is a mixed bag of what -- of the difference between those 2 numbers. So the answer to the question is in the larger segment, of course, you're seeing less because those companies tend to have a lot more controls in place from a property perspective or a casualty perspective. And in the smaller to midsize, you're seeing premium increases still holding serve with what we saw last year and the year before. So it's a broad range from account size. Remember, we trade predominantly in every sector. But if you look at our book in general, the middle market and upper middle market is where we see a lot of activity and so that still supports a bit of the tailwind that I spoke of from an overall market perspective. Does that answer your question, Alex?

所以——然后介于两者之间的所有情况都是这两个数字之间差异的混合体。所以问题的答案是，在较大的细分市场中，当然，您看到的增长较少，因为从财产或意外伤害的角度来看，这些公司往往有更多的控制措施。而在中小型企业中，您看到的保费增长仍与我们去年和前年看到的情况持平。所以这是一个基于账户规模的广泛范围。请记住，我们主要在每个行业进行交易。但如果您总体上看我们的业务组合，中端市场和中高端市场是我们看到大量活动的地方，因此这仍然支持了我从整体市场角度谈到的一些有利因素。这回答了您的问题吗，亚历克斯？

Taylor Scott Barclays Bank

Yes, that's really helpful.

Taylor Scott 巴克莱银行

是的，这非常有帮助。

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

I think let me pile on to that with Mike. I don't know if we saw the -- I'd have to pull out -- we always got the data here -- I apologize going back to the beginning of '24 that Mike was looking at. But I think that memory serves is I don't think this small and medium market have the sizable rate increases if you go back 3 years ago. So this might be them catching up as much as it is that the large market kind of led the way with premium rate increases 3 years ago, something like that.

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

我想让我在迈克的基础上补充一点。我不知道我们是否看到了——我得找出来——我们这里总是有数据——我为回到迈克正在看的 24 年初而道歉。但我认为记忆中，如果追溯到 3 年前，我不认为这个中小型市场有大幅度的费率上涨。所以这可能是他们在追赶，就像大型市场在 3 年前引领了保费费率上涨一样，诸如此类。

And so if memory serves me right, there could be a little more reversion on this. And remember, just remember, large losses can come from small accounts, too. It's not just from large accounts. So I think they're just catching up on that.

因此，如果我没记错的话，这方面可能会出现一些回归。而且请记住，大额损失也可能来自小额账户，而不仅仅是大额账户。所以我认为他们只是在弥补这一点。

Unknown Executive

One thing I would add, Alex, is that remember, the bigger risk management accounts tend to compensate us based on a fee. So while the premium -- what I'm talking about in terms of premium, it doesn't necessarily impact now the negotiation and discussion with our client about value-added services and things that they need to continue operating their business effectively. But about 25% to 30% of our business is on a fee which usually captures that larger risk management type business.

未知高管

亚历克斯，我想补充一点，那就是请记住，较大的风险管理客户往往是按服务费向我们付费的。因此，虽然保费——我所说的保费——现在不一定会影响我们与客户就增值服务以及他们为继续有效运营业务所需的事项进行的谈判和讨论。但我们大约 25% 到 30% 的业务是按服务费收费的，这通常涵盖了那些较大的风险管理类型的业务。

Taylor Scott Barclays Bank

Okay. Separate follow-up just on the 1Q guide being really strong in brokerage, 8% to 9%. Can you talk through why not take up the full year? Is it more just that you don't have as much visibility yet on the later part of the year and it's an uncertain environment that's causing it? Or does it have more to do with reinsurance, maybe helps a lot more in the first quarter. Can you help me think through whether it's more seasonality or whether it's more just caution and not wanting to guide too much throughout the year?

Taylor Scott 巴克莱银行

好的。另外一个后续问题是关于第一季度经纪业务的指引非常强劲，达到了 8% 到 9%。您能解释一下为什么不提高全年的指引吗？仅仅是因为你们对今年晚些时候的情况还不太了解，而且环境不确定造成的吗？还是更多地与再保险有关，也许再保险在第一季度的帮助更大。您能帮我分析一下，这更多的是季节性因素，还是仅仅出于谨慎，不想在全年给出过高的指引？

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

Listen, we're 5 weeks away from the last time that we gave you that 6% to 8% range. Maybe we can be a little more bullish when we get to our April call on that. But what I think it's doing is, in my opinion, a really strong first quarter substantially reduces the risk that it's going to not be at least 6%. .

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

听着，距离我们上次给你们 6% 到 8% 的范围已经过去 5 周了。也许当我们在四月份的电话会议上讨论这个问题时，我们可以更乐观一些。但我认为，在我看来，一个非常强劲的第一季度大大降低了其增长率不会低于 6% 的风险。

Yes, if you think about it that way. And so I think give us another 6 weeks to take a look at -- there's a lot of uncertainty out there, what's going on in the marketplace. We started off with a lot of storms [ ores ] property going to settle at right now, casualty still, I guess, as I sit here, the interesting news that I'm reading is a as carriers filed their yellow books right now and we get deeper insights into the reserve positions, I think that will tell us a lot between now and April.

是的，如果你那样想的话。所以我认为再给我们 6 周的时间来看看——市场上有很多不确定性，正在发生什么。我们一开始就遇到了很多风暴，[矿石]地产现在就要尘埃落定了，意外险仍然，我想，就我目前所知，我读到的有趣消息是，随着保险公司现在提交他们的黄皮书，我们对准备金状况有了更深入的了解，我认为这将在现在到四月之间告诉我们很多。

They've only been filed now for 2 weeks. A lot of folks have done some more kind of -- but you always get that yellow book wake-up period in March and April. So let's see what happens before we get too terribly excited about it.

它们才提交了两周。很多人已经做了一些更多类似的事情——但你总会在三月和四月遇到那个黄皮书的唤醒期。所以让我们看看在对此过于兴奋之前会发生什么。

Operator

Our final question comes from the line of Katie Sakys with Autonomous Research.

接线员

我们的最后一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 的 Katie Sakys。

Katie Sakys

First question on the time line for AssuredPartners, does the shift change any considerations we should make to seasonality and then perhaps more broadly, can you kind of give us a reminder of what exactly seasonality to organic growth looks like for the broader brokerage segment over the next couple of quarters?

Katie Sakys

第一个问题关于 AssuredPartners 的时间表，这一变化是否会改变我们对季节性的任何考虑？然后也许更广泛地说，您能否提醒我们一下，在未来几个季度，更广泛的经纪业务部门的有机增长季节性究竟是什么样的？

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

Well, listen, I think AssuredPartners coming in, in the fall, they will have some first quarter seasonality. Because of their business, they also have maybe some July 1 renewals in the public entity space. But by and large, I would not expect AssuredPartners rolling into our numbers to have a dramatic impact on our seasonality. May be similar to ours, but no, it will not cause it to be a greater seasonality to first quarter that might moderate down a little bit.

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

嗯，听着，我认为 AssuredPartners 在秋季加入后，他们会有一些第一季度的季节性。由于他们的业务性质，他们可能在公共实体领域也有一些 7 月 1 日的续约。但总的来说，我预计 AssuredPartners 并入我们的数据不会对我们的季节性产生重大影响。可能与我们的相似，但是，不，这不会导致第一季度的季节性增强，反而可能会略有缓和。

So in that case, obviously, we'd love to again put that $3 billion into our books in the fourth quarter. That would be pretty nice to have another $750 million of revenue in the fourth quarter if we can get it done. But their seasonality will not impact ours very much, Katie.

因此，在这种情况下，我们显然很乐意在第四季度再次将这 30 亿美元计入我们的账簿。如果我们能做到这一点，在第四季度再增加 7.5 亿美元的收入将是非常不错的。但他们的季节性不会对我们的季节性产生太大影响，凯蒂。

Katie Sakys

Okay. And then just one quick follow-up on the 8% RPS organic guide for this quarter. Did you break that down between open brokerage and MGA at all?

Katie Sakys

好的。然后就本季度 8% 的 RPS 有机增长指引再问一个简短的问题。您是否将其细分到公开经纪业务和 MGA（管理总代理）？

Michael Pesch CEO of Global Brokerage of Americas

Yes. Katie, I can do that for you. This is Mike Pesch. So overall, first quarter, if we break it down, RPS 8%, open brokerages mid single or digit organic and binding and programs is in the mid-teens organic with higher renewal premiums and increased submissions, specifically in those -- in that business.

Michael Pesch 美洲全球经纪业务首席执行官

是的。凯蒂，我可以为您解答。我是迈克·佩什。总的来说，第一季度，如果我们进行细分，RPS（每次销售收入）为 8%，公开经纪业务的有机增长为中个位数，约束性业务和项目业务的有机增长为百分之十几，这得益于较高的续保保费和增加的提交量，特别是在那些业务中。

Operator

We have a follow-up from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

接线员

我们有来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan 的后续提问。

Elyse Greenspan Wells Fargo Securities

I guess I wanted to come back to the organic growth rate you guys left at 6% to 8%.

Elyse Greenspan 富国银行证券公司

我想我还是想回到你们之前提到的 6% 到 8% 的有机增长率。

Unknown Executive

Elyse, you're breaking up. Are you on a cellphone? I can't hear you very well. .

未知高管

艾丽斯，你的声音断断续续的。你用的是手机吗？我听不太清楚。

Elyse Greenspan Wells Fargo Securities

Oh, sorry, can you hear me now? .

Elyse Greenspan 富国银行证券公司

哦，抱歉，现在能听到我说话吗？

J. Gallagher Chairman & CEO

Better, much better. .

J. Gallagher 董事长兼首席执行官

好多了，好多了。

Elyse Greenspan Wells Fargo Securities

Sorry about that. I wanted to come back to the organic guide, right? The 6% to 8% for brokerage for the year with the Q1 trending better. And it sounded like in response to Alex's question, right, you left the door open to maybe raising that or being more precise with Q1 earnings. Is there any other seasonality we need to be thinking about in terms of the quarters that could be better or worse? I know you guys had previously flagged right stronger Q1 due to reinsurance. I'm just trying to think about the back 3 quarters of the year from an organic perspective.

Elyse Greenspan 富国银行证券公司

抱歉。我想回到有机增长指引，对吧？全年经纪业务 6% 到 8% 的增长，第一季度趋势向好。听起来，在回答亚历克斯的问题时，对吧，你们为可能提高该指引或在第一季度财报中给出更精确的数据留下了余地。就可能更好或更差的季度而言，我们是否需要考虑任何其他季节性因素？我知道你们之前曾指出，由于再保险业务，第一季度表现会更强劲。我只是想从有机增长的角度考虑今年后三个季度的情况。

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

Yes, here's -- I think that right now, just make sure that I think that we -- let's make sure that we understand what I said. And this our better -- our strong first quarter makes us feel more comfortable about our 6% to 8% range, right? First and foremost, let's say that. Second of all, there are still some lumpy type businesses that we need to get our hands on. The life business that we talked to you about a lot can move some numbers around maybe as much as a 0.5 point of organic in a quarter, a little bit one way or another.

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

是的，目前——我想我们首先要确保理解我所说的。我们强劲的第一季度让我们对 6% 到 8% 的增长区间更有信心，对吧？首先，我们要明确这一点。其次，仍有一些波动较大的业务需要我们掌握。我们经常和你们谈到的人寿业务，可能会在一个季度内对有机增长率产生大约 0.5 个百分点的影响，或多或少。

We'll see that -- those are kind of interest-sensitive type products. So we'll see what happens with the rate environment on it. So I would say -- like I said, the way I close it, let's not get too terribly excited. We just feel more comfortable with the 6% to 8% range. Is that a great way -- but isn't it terrific to have a terrific first quarter coming out of.

我们会看到——那些是利率敏感型产品。所以我们要看看利率环境会对其产生什么影响。所以我会说——正如我所说，我的结论是，我们不要过于兴奋。我们只是对 6% 到 8% 的区间更有信心。这是一个很好的方式——但能有一个如此出色的第一季度，难道不是一件很棒的事情吗？

Elyse Greenspan Wells Fargo Securities

And then my second question was on some of the pricing stuff we just went over. So it seems like small accounts went from -- I think you were saying up around 6% to 1%, '24 to '25, but then it seemed like -- sorry, I said that wrong, right? The large accounts was the one that went down, but then you saw small accounts actually go up from 6% to 9% right, where there was more compression on the large side from 5% to 1%.

Elyse Greenspan 富国银行证券公司

然后我的第二个问题是关于我们刚才讨论的一些定价问题。所以看起来小额账户从——我想您是说从 24 年到 25 年，从大约 6% 上升到 1%，但后来似乎——抱歉，我说错了，对吧？大额账户是下降的那个，但随后您看到小额账户实际上从 6% 上升到 9%，对吧，而大额账户方面则有更大的压缩，从 5% 降至 1%。

Is that in property and casualty? And then, I guess, is that an all-in number? I'm a little bit surprised, I guess, that you -- I know we went through some of the color during the comments, but that the small accounts went up so much and there was so much give back on the large accounts in terms of pricing?

那是在财产险和意外险领域吗？然后，我想，这是一个总括性的数字吗？我有点惊讶，我想，你们——我知道我们在评论中讨论了一些细节，但是小额账户的涨幅如此之大，而大额账户在定价方面却有如此大的回落？

Unknown Executive

Yes. This is a blend. So this is not singling out any one line of coverage of what I gave to Elyse. So if I look at property, now again, this is, I think, agnostic to size account, but it's down about 1 point in that category and GL umbrella are carrying the difference significantly in the 6% -- 5% to 6% range. And again, that's $100,000 in premium, which generates about $10,000 in income when I was mentioning the size of account. So again, it gets a little funky because you've got the mix between both commissionable accounts and fee-based accounts once you start getting north of that $100,000 really start getting north of $1 million to capture its impact to us from a revenue standpoint. Again, there's a lot of things in play there. As I mentioned, the cost evaluations on a property perspective and then the GL and umbrella lines still seeing some rather significant increases.

未知高管

是的。这是一个混合数据。所以我给艾丽斯的数据并没有单独列出任何一个险种。所以如果我看财产险，再次强调，这我认为与账户规模无关，但它在该类别中下降了大约 1 个百分点，而普通责任险（GL）和伞式险则显著地弥补了差额，在 6%——5% 到 6% 的范围内。再说一次，那是指 10 万美元的保费，当我提到账户规模时，这大约能产生 1 万美元的收入。所以，情况又变得有点复杂，因为一旦你开始超过 10 万美元，特别是真正开始超过 100 万美元，要从收入角度捕捉其对我们的影响时，你就必须考虑佣金制账户和收费制账户的混合情况。再次强调，这里面有很多因素在起作用。正如我提到的，从财产险角度看的成本评估，以及普通责任险和伞式险险种仍然出现一些相当显著的增长。

Elyse Greenspan Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. And then one other one, Doug, that I was just thinking about the deal, obviously, is the deal is pushed back a little bit. You guys have obviously had the cash and you're carrying this. You guys always generate a lot of cash, right, each year that you say can fund M&A. Would you think at some point if the deal gets pushed back more towards the later stages of the year of perhaps buying back stock, right, and then using cash generated for AP? Or does it feel like the pipeline is strong enough that you'll just kind of hold on to the capital until the deal closes?

Elyse Greenspan 富国银行证券公司

好的。然后还有一个问题，道格，我刚才在考虑那笔交易，很明显，交易被推迟了一些。你们显然有现金并且一直在持有。你们每年都会产生大量现金，对吧，你们说这些现金可以用来进行并购。如果交易进一步推迟到今年晚些时候，你们是否会考虑在某个时候回购股票，对吧，然后用产生的现金来完成 AP（AssuredPartners）的交易？还是说你们觉得并购渠道足够强大，会一直持有这些资本直到交易完成？

Douglas Howell Corporate VP & CFO

We are trying to get this deal done. So that's a hypothetical. I don't want to go down that rabbit hole. This deal, we're going to do exactly what the regulators are asking. We're going to prove what we know, and that this is better for customers at the end of the day. So that question give me 6 months and then I'll even think about that. But that cash is going to be used for AP.

道格拉斯·豪厄尔公司副总裁兼首席财务官

我们正在努力完成这笔交易。所以这是一个假设性问题。我不想钻牛角尖。对于这笔交易，我们将完全按照监管机构的要求去做。我们将证明我们所知道的，并且最终这将对客户更有利。所以这个问题，给我 6 个月的时间，然后我才会考虑。但那笔现金将用于 AP（AssuredPartners 的收购）。

Operator

We have a last minute follow-up from Mike Zaremski from BMO Capital Markets.

接线员

我们有来自蒙特利尔银行资本市场 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Mike Zaremski 的最后一个追加提问。

Michael Zaremski BMO Capital Markets Equity Research

I'm just [indiscernible] Elyse asked 6 questions, I need to ask one more. It's a positive one. When I heard the answer on RPS and GA programs business being kind of a double digits, well into double digits organic growth in 1Q, I believe we've seen some rather explosive growth in the overall GA marketplace in recent years, including on the M&A side from some of the public peers kind of driving that business to be a bigger part of their business. Just curious, is that anything behind that double-digit growth that might be trendable or anything we should know?

Michael Zaremski 蒙特利尔银行资本市场股票研究

我只是 [听不清] Elyse 问了 6 个问题，我需要再问一个。这是一个积极的问题。当我听到关于 RPS 和 GA 项目业务在第一季度实现了两位数，甚至是远超两位数的有机增长的回答时，我相信近年来我们已经看到整个 GA 市场出现了相当爆炸性的增长，包括在并购方面，一些上市同行正在推动该业务成为其业务中更大的一部分。只是好奇，这种两位数的增长背后是否存在任何可趋势化的因素或我们应该了解的情况？

Michael Pesch CEO of Global Brokerage of Americas

This is Mike Pesch again. I would say the environment is such that clients want faster product launches. The carriers want lower operational costs, and they want the ability to specialize in niche markets. That trend has been occurring for the last 2 to 3 years, if not longer. And so we're still very bullish on where we could build that and continue to build out specific programs that cater to not only our retailers, but the 25,000 other brokers that RPS trades with on a day-to-day basis, whose customers are looking for the exact same thing.

Michael Pesch 美洲全球经纪业务首席执行官

我是迈克·佩什。我想说的是，当前的环境是客户希望更快地推出产品。保险公司希望降低运营成本，并希望能够专注于利基市场。这种趋势在过去两到三年甚至更长时间里一直存在。因此，我们仍然非常看好我们可以在哪些领域进行建设，并继续开发特定的项目，不仅满足我们零售商的需求，也满足 RPS 日常交易的另外 25,000 家经纪人的需求，他们的客户也在寻求完全相同的东西。

Michael Zaremski BMO Capital Markets Equity Research

And Mike, are those -- is that an area that is conducive for M&A? Or is there anything structural that those MGA's prefer to maybe be with more of a larger wholesaler or stay independent?

Michael Zaremski 蒙特利尔银行资本市场股票研究

迈克，这些——这个领域是否有利于并购？或者是否存在某些结构性因素，使得那些 MGA（管理总代理）更倾向于与规模更大的批发商合作或保持独立？

Michael Pesch CEO of Global Brokerage of Americas

Yes. No, it is definitely an area. We look at -- in fact, we spent a lot of time over the past year looking at different opportunities in areas where we may want to start to build a relationship with the idea of merging. But the opportunity exists to build our own. We have a unique genetic makeup at Gallagher in the sense that we also have Gallagher Re to support us when we go to market and we have the distribution channel through the retail, and we have RPS in the program space. So we can start to tailor make and that's what we're doing. Tailor make programs to notably our book of business, but also, again, the 25,000 other independent agents that we work with. .

Michael Pesch 美洲全球经纪业务首席执行官

是的。不，这绝对是一个领域。我们关注——事实上，在过去的一年里，我们花了很多时间研究不同领域的机会，在这些领域我们可能希望开始建立以合并为目的的关系。但是，我们也有机会建立自己的（MGA）。Gallagher 拥有独特的基因构成，因为我们有 Gallagher Re 在我们进入市场时提供支持，我们有通过零售的分销渠道，并且我们在项目领域拥有 RPS。所以我们可以开始量身定制，这就是我们正在做的。为我们的业务组合量身定制项目，同时也为与我们合作的另外 25,000 名独立代理人量身定制项目。

J. Gallagher Chairman & CEO

We've been buying -- we started RPS in 1997, and there's not been a time that we've ever backed off line MGAs. We're one of the largest MGAs in aggregate in the United States.

J. Gallagher 董事长兼首席执行官

我们一直在收购——我们从 1997 年开始做 RPS，从来没有放弃过线下 MGA。按总规模计算，我们是美国最大的 MGA 之一。

Thanks, everyone. Thank you again for joining us this morning. We appreciate it. As you heard from the team today, I think we're poised to continue our growth and we can really execute in this market environment. I believe we're incredibly well positioned to continue the strong financial performance we've had over the longer term. I'm incredibly proud of our past returns. As I said in my prepared remarks, 73% TSR over 3 years, 217% TSO over 5 years and 633% TSR over 10 years, we see our job to keep building on that and our responsibility to do it with the best culture in the business. So thank you for being with us today. We're excited about the quarter.

谢谢大家。再次感谢大家今天上午的参与。我们非常感谢。正如你们今天从团队那里听到的，我认为我们已准备好继续增长，并且我们能够在这种市场环境下真正执行。我相信我们处于非常有利的位置，可以继续保持我们长期以来强劲的财务业绩。我为我们过去的投资回报感到无比自豪。正如我在准备好的发言中所说，3 年期股东总回报率 (TSR) 为 73%，5 年期股东总回报率 (TSO) 为 217%，10 年期股东总回报率 (TSR) 为 633%，我们将继续在此基础上再接再厉视为我们的工作，并有责任以业内最佳的企业文化来做到这一点。所以感谢大家今天的参与。我们对本季度感到兴奋。

Operator

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.

接线员

谢谢。今天的会议到此结束。您现在可以挂断电话了。感谢您的参与。

2025-03-20 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Investor Meeting with Management

2025-03-20 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Investor Meeting with Management

热门主题

Related Articles

2025-01-30 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

2025-05-01 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

2023-05-03 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

2023-08-02 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

2008-02-29 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript