Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Limited First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions]

感谢您的耐心等待。我是 Eric，今天将担任您的会议操作员。现在，欢迎大家参加 Chubb Limited 2025 年第一季度财报电话会议。所有线路均已静音，以防背景噪音干扰。发言人发言结束后，将进行问答环节。[操作员指示]

I would now like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

现在，我想将电话转接给投资者关系高级副总裁 Karen Beyer。请开始。

Karen Beyer

Thank you and welcome to our March 31, 2025, first quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing, and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially.

谢谢，欢迎参加我们截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的第一季度财报电话会议。我们今天的报告将包含前瞻性陈述，包括与公司业绩、定价和业务组合、增长机会以及经济和市场状况相关的陈述，这些陈述受到风险和不确定性的影响，实际结果可能存在重大差异。

Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release, and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.

请参阅我们最近向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的文件、收益发布和财务补充文件，这些文件可在我们的网站 investors.chubb.com 上获取，以获取可能影响这些事项的因素的更多信息。

We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

今天我们还将提及非公认会计原则（non-GAAP）财务指标，这些指标与最直接可比的公认会计原则（GAAP）指标的调节表以及相关细节已在我们的收益新闻稿和财务补充文件中提供。

Now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer, and then we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions this morning are several members of our management team.

现在我想介绍一下我们的发言人。首先是董事长兼首席执行官 Evan Greenberg，随后是我们的首席财务官 Peter Enns，然后我们将回答大家的问题。今天上午，我们管理团队的几位成员也将协助回答大家的问题。

And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

现在，我很荣幸将电话转交给 Evan。

Evan Greenberg

Good morning. Let me begin with a few words around the external environment. There is currently a great deal of uncertainty and confusion surrounding our government's approach to trade, it's impacting business and consumer confidence as well as our image broadly.

早上好。让我先谈谈外部环境。目前，围绕我国政府的贸易政策存在大量不确定性和混乱，这正在影响商业和消费者信心以及我们的整体形象。

The odds of recession have risen substantially and higher inflation is all but certain, to what degree is an open question. We have competing priorities between our stated trade, economic, and fiscal objectives and coherence of policy has yet to emerge. I hope we can reach agreements on trade, reduce or eliminate tariffs, and reconcile our priorities quickly.

经济衰退的可能性已大幅上升，而更高的通货膨胀几乎是必然的，其程度如何还是一个悬而未决的问题。我们在既定的贸易、经济和财政目标之间存在相互竞争的优先事项，政策的连贯性尚未显现。我希望我们能够就贸易达成协议，减少或取消关税，并迅速协调我们的优先事项。

Certainty and predictability are jacks to open for confidence, growth and the image of our country as a leader, a reliable partner, and a place to do business. As you saw from the numbers, we had a good first quarter, considering the significant catastrophe losses we incurred in the California wildfires.

确定性和可预测性是开启信心、增长以及我国作为领导者、可靠伙伴和经商之地的形象的关键。正如您从数字中看到的，考虑到我们在加州野火中遭受的重大巨灾损失，我们第一季度的表现良好。

In terms of revenue growth, the headline number was impacted by foreign exchange due to a strong dollar, which has since weakened substantially and one-time premium-related items in our North America business.

在收入增长方面，总体数字受到强势美元导致的外汇影响，美元此后已大幅走弱，以及我们北美业务中一次性保费相关项目的影响。

We produced $1.5 billion in core operating income, and it was down 31%, but it was supported by excellent underlying underwriting results, double-digit growth in investment income and strong life insurance income. Total company premiums grew 5.7% in constant dollars.

我们实现了 15 亿美元的核心运营收入，下降了 31%，但这得益于卓越的基础承保业绩、投资收入的两位数增长以及强劲的人寿保险收入。按固定汇率计算，公司总保费增长了 5.7%。

Our published combined ratio was 95.7% with underwriting income of $441 million, a notable result given $1.6 billion of CAT losses. Calendar year underwriting income was supported by a current accident year combined ratio of 82.3%, a nearly 1.5 point improvement from prior year. Excluding CATs, current accident year underwriting income was up 12%. Additionally, we had favorable prior year reserve development of $255 million.

我们公布的综合成本率为 95.7%，承保收入为 4.41 亿美元，考虑到 16 亿美元的巨灾损失，这是一个值得注意的结果。日历年度承保收入得益于当前事故年度综合成本率为 82.3%，较上年改善近 1.5 个百分点。剔除巨灾损失，当前事故年度承保收入增长了 12%。此外，我们还有 2.55 亿美元的有利上年准备金发展。

On the asset side for the quarter, adjusted net investment income was $1.7 billion, and it was up 12.7%. Our fixed income portfolio yield is 5% and our current new money rate is averaging 5.5%. Tariffs in the federal budget deficit impact interest rates, the yield curve, spreads, asset values, and the dollar in ways that are not good for our country. As a company, we are predominantly buy-and-hold fixed income investors and benefit from higher yields, and as a multinational, our revenue and income benefit from a weaker dollar.

在资产方面，本季度调整后的净投资收入为 17 亿美元，增长了 12.7%。我们的固定收益投资组合收益率为 5%，当前新投入资金的平均利率为 5.5%。关税和联邦预算赤字以不利于我国的方式影响利率、收益率曲线、利差、资产价值和美元。作为一家公司，我们主要是买入并持有的固定收益投资者，并受益于更高的收益率；作为一家跨国公司，我们的收入和利润受益于较弱的美元。

In the quarter, our alternative investments produced modestly lower-than-usual private equity distribution related income. It's a combination of simply normal volatility and financial market conditions. Our annualized core operating return on tangible equity in the quarter was 13%. Peter is going to have more to say about the financial items.

本季度，我们的另类投资产生的私募股权分配相关收入略低于通常水平。这仅仅是正常波动性和金融市场状况的结合。本季度我们有形股本的年化核心运营回报率为 13%。Peter 将会就财务项目做更多说明。

As you saw in the first quarter, we announced an agreement to acquire Liberty Mutual's Business in Thailand and Vietnam. The two companies offer a range of consumer and commercial P&C products with distribution through 56 branches and 2,600 brokers and agents, both fit well with our own business.

正如您在第一季度所见，我们宣布了一项协议，收购利宝互助保险在泰国和越南的业务。这两家公司提供一系列消费者和商业财产与意外险（P&C）产品，通过 56 家分支机构和 2,600 家经纪人和代理人进行分销，两者都与我们自身的业务非常契合。

The combined operations produced about $275 million in premiums in 2024, over 90% of which is in Thailand. For perspective, Thailand is now over $1 billion in premium revenue for Chubb, non-life and life, and we're among the leading P&C companies in the country once the entities are merged, in fact, we'll be number four. We closed Thailand on April 1st and expect to close Vietnam by early '26.

合并后的业务在 2024 年产生了约 2.75 亿美元的保费，其中超过 90% 来自泰国。从长远来看，Chubb 在泰国的非寿险和寿险保费收入现已超过 10 亿美元，一旦实体合并，我们将成为该国领先的财产与意外险公司之一，事实上，我们将排名第四。我们于 4 月 1 日完成了泰国的交易，并预计在 26 年初完成越南的交易。

Now turning to growth. Pricing and the rate environment. P&C revenue grew 3.2% in the quarter, 5% in constant dollars, with commercial up 4.6%, consumer up 6%. Adjusting for the one-time items in North America, P&C premium revenue grew over 6.5% in constant dollar. All regions of the world contributed favorably. Premiums in our life insurance division grew over 10%.

现在转向增长。定价和费率环境。本季度财产与意外险（P&C）收入增长 3.2%，按固定汇率计算增长 5%，其中商业险增长 4.6%，个人险增长 6%。剔除北美地区的一次性项目后，按固定汇率计算，P&C 保费收入增长超过 6.5%。全球所有地区均做出了积极贡献。我们人寿保险部门的保费增长超过 10%。

In terms of the commercial P&C underwriting environment, large account related short-tail business, both admitted and E&S, is growing quite competitive. A lot more capital is chasing the business, prices are softening. We are, of course, disciplined and we're not going to write business below a technically adequate price. On the other hand, middle-market and small commercial property, both admitted retail and non-admitted wholesale or E&S, remain much more disciplined and orderly. Rates, in fact, continue to rise, and we are growing in this area.

就商业财产与意外险（P&C）承保环境而言，与大客户相关的短期业务，无论是许可市场（admitted）还是非许可市场（E&S），竞争日益激烈。大量资本追逐该业务，价格正在走软。我们当然是有纪律的，不会以低于技术上充足的价格承保业务。另一方面，中端市场和小型商业地产，无论是许可零售市场还是非许可批发市场（E&S），仍然更加有纪律和有序。事实上，费率持续上升，我们正在这一领域实现增长。

Casualty continues to firm in all areas that require REIT, retail and E&S, a large account, middle-market, and again, we're growing. Financial lines remain soft. With that as backdrop, I want to give you some more color by division and we'll start with North America, where premiums were up 3.4%. Growth again was impacted by the two one-time items I mentioned, reinstatement premiums related to the California wildfires and personal insurance and larger than usual one-off structured transactions, I think, loss portfolio transfers written last year in our major accounts commercial division.

在所有需要不动产投资信托（REIT）、零售和非许可市场（E&S）的领域，包括大客户和中端市场，意外险业务持续走强，我们再次实现增长。金融责任险业务仍然疲软。在此背景下，我想按部门为您提供更多细节，我们将从北美开始，该地区保费增长了 3.4%。增长再次受到我提到的两个一次性项目的影响：与加州野火相关的恢复保费和个人保险，以及比平常更大的一次性结构化交易，我认为是去年在我们大客户商业部门承保的损失组合转移。

Adjusting for both, North America was up 6.4%, including growth of 10.1% in personal insurance, 5.3% in commercial. Commercial P&C lines were up 6.4% and financial lines were down 1.3%. Looking through those one-time items is a more representative view of our run rate growth for North America commercial P&C.

剔除这两项因素后，北美业务增长了 6.4%，其中个人保险增长 10.1%，商业保险增长 5.3%。商业财产与意外险（P&C）业务增长 6.4%，金融责任险业务下降 1.3%。剔除这些一次性项目后，可以更具代表性地看待我们北美商业 P&C 业务的持续增长率。

Premiums in our very large middle-market division increased almost 8%, an excellent result. P&C up over 10% and financial lines down about 2%. Premiums in our major account and specialty division declined 1.7% and adjusting for the one-time transactions, they were up 3.1%, 3.6% in P&C and financial lines down 1%.

我们超大型中端市场部门的保费增长近 8%，这是一个优异的成绩。财产与意外险（P&C）增长超过 10%，金融责任险下降约 2%。我们大客户和专业险部门的保费下降了 1.7%，剔除一次性交易后，增长了 3.1%，其中 P&C 增长 3.6%，金融责任险下降 1%。

Major in specialty is comprised of E&S business, which was up 10.7% and our major accounts retail business, which was down 1.3%. Overall, commercial pricing for property and casualty, excluding fin lines and comp, was up 8.3% with rates up 6.4% and exposure change of 1.8%.

专业险中的大客户业务主要由非许可市场（E&S）业务组成，该业务增长了 10.7%，而我们的大客户零售业务下降了 1.3%。总体而言，不包括金融责任险和劳工险的商业财产和意外险定价上涨了 8.3%，其中费率上涨 6.4%，风险敞口变化为 1.8%。

Going a step further, property pricing was up 3.1% with rates down 0.7%, offset by exposure change of 3.8%. For property, pricing was down 9.6% in large account business, both admitted and E&S and up 10.2% in middle and small, again, both admitted and E&S. Casualty pricing in North America was up 13.4% with rates up 12.6% and exposure up 0.7%.

更进一步看，财产险定价上涨了 3.1%，其中费率下降 0.7%，被风险敞口增加 3.8% 所抵消。对于财产险，大客户业务（包括许可市场和非许可市场）的定价下降了 9.6%，而中小型业务（同样包括许可市场和非许可市场）的定价上涨了 10.2%。北美意外险定价上涨了 13.4%，其中费率上涨 12.6%，风险敞口增加 0.7%。

Financial lines pricing was down 3.2% and that's all rate. In comp, primary comp pricing was flat while large account risk management was up 7.5%. In North America Commercial, our selected loss cost trend has declined modestly from 6.8% in '24 to 6.5%, with casualty running 8.9% and property 4.5%. We are mindful of a potential impact tariffs could have on short-tail lines of business and are watching closely.

金融责任险定价下降了 3.2%，这完全是费率下降所致。在劳工险方面，主要劳工险定价持平，而大客户风险管理定价上涨了 7.5%。在北美商业险领域，我们选定的损失成本趋势已从 24 年的 6.8% 温和下降至 6.5%，其中意外险为 8.9%，财产险为 4.5%。我们注意到关税可能对短期业务线产生潜在影响，并正在密切关注。

On the consumer side of North America, our high net-worth personal lines business had another very strong quarter with premium growth of 10.1% adjusted for the reinstatement premiums. New business growth was almost 20%. Premiums in our upper high net-worth segments grew over 16%. Homeowners' pricing was up 12.5% in the quarter and ahead of loss costs, which are running 8.7%.

在北美消费者业务方面，我们的高净值个人险业务又迎来了一个非常强劲的季度，剔除恢复保费后，保费增长了 10.1%。新业务增长近 20%。我们超高净值细分市场的保费增长超过 16%。本季度房主险定价上涨了 12.5%，领先于损失成本，后者目前为 8.7%。

Turning to our international general insurance operations. Premiums were up 1.8% or 6.5% in constant dollar. The dollar was considerably stronger in the first quarter versus a year ago, but substantially declined in value versus major currencies in recent weeks. In the quarter, international commercial lines grew about 7.5%.

转向我们的国际一般保险业务。保费增长了 1.8%，按固定汇率计算增长了 6.5%。第一季度美元较一年前大幅走强，但最近几周对主要货币的价值大幅下跌。本季度，国际商业险业务增长约 7.5%。

Consumer was up 5%. From a region of the world perspective, Asia and Latin America, both grew 6.1%, while Europe grew 5.5%, including growth of 6% on the continent, while premiums in our London wholesale business were up nearly 8%.

个人险增长了 5%。从全球区域来看，亚洲和拉丁美洲均增长了 6.1%，而欧洲增长了 5.5%，其中欧洲大陆增长了 6%，同时我们伦敦批发业务的保费增长了近 8%。

In our international retail commercial business, P&C pricing was up 2.6% and financial lines pricing was down 5.5%. Loss cost trends in international retail were in fact down 80 basis points from '24, 5.8% to 5%. Our global reinsurance business had a strong quarter with premium growth of 14%.

在我们的国际零售商业业务中，财产与意外险（P&C）定价上涨了 2.6%，金融责任险定价下降了 5.5%。国际零售业务的损失成本趋势实际上从 24 年的 5.8% 下降了 80 个基点至 5%。我们的全球再保险业务表现强劲，保费增长了 14%。

In our international life insurance business, which is fundamentally Asia, premiums and deposits were up 15.5% in constant dollar. And in combined insurance company, our US worksite business grew 18.6%. Our life division produced over $290 million of pre-tax income in the quarter, up 15.7% in constant dollar.

在我们的国际人寿保险业务（主要在亚洲）中，按固定汇率计算，保费和存款增长了 15.5%。在联合保险公司（Combined Insurance Company），我们的美国工伤保险业务增长了 18.6%。我们的人寿保险部门本季度产生了超过 2.9 亿美元的税前收入，按固定汇率计算增长了 15.7%。

In summary, we are in the risk business, volatility is a feature, while we are impacted by the wildfires, our underlying fundamentals are excellent. We had a good quarter. And as I observed at the beginning of the year, about 80% of our global P&C business, commercial and consumer, and our life business are very good growth prospects.

总而言之，我们从事的是风险业务，波动性是其特点，尽管我们受到野火的影响，但我们的基本面非常出色。我们度过了一个良好的季度。正如我在年初所观察到的，我们全球约 80% 的财产与意外险（P&C）业务（商业和个人）以及我们的人寿保险业务都具有非常好的增长前景。

In fact, when you listen, as I read to you and described going across divisions, the growth rate of the various businesses, FX aside, I think that speaks to the broad nature and the 80% I'm talking about. There is a lot of opportunity and I'm mindful that the external environment has become more uncertain.

事实上，当您听到我向您宣读并描述跨部门情况时，各业务线的增长率（撇开外汇因素），我认为这说明了我所说的广泛性和 80% 的比例。存在大量机会，同时我也意识到外部环境变得更加不确定。

I have confidence in what we can control. In that regard, in our ability to continue growing operating and earnings and EPS at a double-digit rate. That's an FX notwithstanding.

我对我们能控制的事情有信心。在这方面，我们有能力继续以两位数的速度增长运营、盈利和每股收益。这是在不考虑外汇影响的情况下。

I'm going to turn the call over to Peter and then we're going to come back and take your questions.

我将把电话转交给 Peter，然后我们会回来回答大家的问题。

Peter Enns

Good morning. Our strong first quarter results were supported by exceptional balance sheet strength and liquidity. Book value now stands at $65.7 billion and reached an all-time high of $164 on a per share basis and total invested assets were $152.3 billion. The quarter produced adjusted operating cash flow of $2 billion, including approximately $600 million of net loss payments for California wildfires.

Peter Enns

早上好。我们强劲的第一季度业绩得益于卓越的资产负债表实力和流动性。账面价值目前为 657 亿美元，每股账面价值达到 164 美元的历史新高，总投资资产为 1523 亿美元。本季度调整后的运营现金流为 20 亿美元，其中包括约 6 亿美元用于加州野火的净损失赔付。

In the quarter, we returned $751 million of capital to shareholders, including $385 million in share repurchases and $366 million in dividends. The average share price on our repurchases for the quarter was $286.18. Book value for the quarter was favorably impacted by unrealized mark-to-market gains on our high-quality fixed-income portfolio due to declining interest rates.

本季度，我们向股东返还了 7.51 亿美元的资本，其中包括 3.85 亿美元的股票回购和 3.66 亿美元的股息。本季度我们回购股票的平均价格为 286.18 美元。由于利率下降，我们高质量固定收益投资组合的未实现按市值计价收益对本季度的账面价值产生了有利影响。

Book and tangible book value per share, excluding AOCI, grew 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively for the quarter. As you know, rates have since backed up. Our core operating return on tangible equity for the quarter was 13%, while our core operating ROE for the quarter was 8.6%. The quarter included pre-tax catastrophe losses of $1.64 billion. Excluding the California wildfires, the approximately $170 million balance was principally weather-related, split 74% US and 26% internationally.

本季度，不包括累计其他综合收益（AOCI）的每股账面价值和有形账面价值分别增长了 0.9% 和 1.6%。如您所知，此后利率有所回升。本季度我们的有形股本核心运营回报率为 13%，而本季度核心运营净资产收益率（ROE）为 8.6%。本季度包括 16.4 亿美元的税前巨灾损失。剔除加州野火后，约 1.7 亿美元的余额主要是与天气相关的损失，其中 74% 在美国，26% 在国际。

Prior period development in the quarter in our active companies was a favorable $268 million pre-tax with favorable development of $313 million in short-tail lines, a mix of commercial and consumer, and unfavorable development of $45 million in long-tail commercial lines.

本季度，我们活跃公司的过往期间发展产生了 2.68 亿美元的有利税前影响，其中短期业务线（商业和个人险混合）产生了 3.13 亿美元的有利发展，而长期商业险业务线产生了 4500 万美元的不利发展。

Turning to investments, our A-rated portfolio produced adjusted net investment income of $1.67 billion, which was at the lower end of our six month guidance and was negatively impacted by approximately $25 million of lower-than-usual private equity distributions and realizations and $10 million of unfavorable FX movements.

转向投资方面，我们的 A 级投资组合产生了 16.7 亿美元的调整后净投资收入，处于我们六个月指引的下限，并受到约 2500 万美元低于通常水平的私募股权分配和变现以及 1000 万美元不利外汇波动的影响。

The income generated from our public fixed-income, private credit, and strategic holdings portfolios performed in line with expectations. While the direction of financial markets remains uncertain and volatile, we expect second quarter adjusted net investment income to be at the midpoint of our previously guided six month guidance.

我们公共固定收益、私人信贷和战略持股投资组合产生的收入表现符合预期。尽管金融市场的走向仍然不确定且波动，我们预计第二季度调整后的净投资收入将处于我们先前发布的六个月指引的中点。

Our paid to incurred ratio for the quarter was 87% or 86% excluding tax, PPD, and agriculture. Our core effective tax rate was within our previously guided range at 19.1%. We continue to expect our annual core operating effective tax rate to be in the range of 19% to 19.5%.

本季度我们的已付赔款与发生赔款比率为 87%，剔除税收、过往期间发展（PPD）和农业险后为 86%。我们的核心有效税率为 19.1%，在我们先前指导的范围内。我们继续预计年度核心运营有效税率将在 19% 至 19.5% 的范围内。

I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.

我现在将电话转回给 Karen。

Karen Beyer

Thank you. And at this point, we're happy to take the questions.

Karen Beyer

谢谢。现在，我们很乐意回答大家的问题。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

女士们，先生们，现在我们将开始问答环节。[操作员说明] 您的第一个问题来自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。请提问。

Gregory Peters

Okay. Good morning, everyone. So, Evan, in your comments, I recognize your 80% growth.

好的。大家早上好。那么，Evan，在您的评论中，我注意到您提到的 80% 的增长。

Evan Greenberg

Greg, can you start again? You garbled in the beginning. We didn't get it.

Greg，你能再说一遍吗？你开头说得含糊不清。我们没听清。

Gregory Peters

Got it. Good morning, everyone. Did you hear that okay?

明白了。大家早上好。这次听清楚了吗？

Evan Greenberg

Yes. Go ahead.

是的。请继续。

Gregory Peters

All right. So in your comments, Evan, you talked about the 80% of the business and the growth outlook. The tariffs are an issue, potential for increasing inflationary pressures. You called out the risk of recession, and frankly, it feels like there's increasing price competition in many lines of property, casualty insurance, both in North America and globally. So with all of that, how are you thinking about the growth strategy for the company, both inside and outside the US?

好的。那么在您的评论中，Evan，您谈到了 80% 的业务及其增长前景。关税是一个问题，存在加剧通胀压力的可能性。您指出了衰退的风险，坦率地说，感觉在北美和全球的许多财产和意外险领域，价格竞争正在加剧。那么综合所有这些因素，您如何考虑公司在美国境内和境外的增长战略？

Evan Greenberg

Yes. There's no change to our strategy. Our strategy is enduring. We see growth opportunities that sometimes you get more joy for the pleasure depending on market conditions, sometimes you get less. That doesn't change the opportunities. And I think as I just went through for you, it's very, it's steady with, and I'll put a point on it from what we talked about at year end, we talked about at investor dinners, my shareholder letter speaks to middle-market and small business globally for us growth opportunities. It varies, that's a big space, and we have our own unique strategies to pursue that opportunity. And it is a global opportunity again. E&S and the US, which again, frankly is a theme of small commercial and middle-market commercial, our personal lines business in the US, our consumer business overseas, and then, of course, there are areas of large account business that continue to show good growth opportunity right now to us and some of that is more tactical and some of it is more strategic. Yes, property is growing and everything I've had to say is contemplating the underwriting environment as we see it, which is not, with directionally not a surprise to us, and we've been talking about it, property growing more competitive in large account, whether it's E&S or embedded. Middle-market, property and small remains more disciplined that way. And casualty businesses responding to loss cost environment. And then you add all -- to all of it the things we've been doing to improve job, in terms of our presence geographically, in terms of how we approach segments of business in terms of industries that we have an expertise or focus on, think of Climate+ right now, think of lines of business like cyber. And then you think of our technology and what we've done that way in our use of data that allows us to access more customers depending on geography and to partner with different forms of distribution to reach customer segments, whether it's middle-market in Asia or it's automobile in Mexico, or frankly, it's pet insurance in the United States. And I could go on. Thank you for the question.

是的。我们的战略没有改变。我们的战略是持久的。我们看到增长机会，有时根据市场情况，你会获得更多的乐趣，有时会少一些。但这并不会改变机会本身。我认为正如我刚才为您梳理的，这非常稳定，并且与我们在年底讨论的、在投资者晚宴上谈到的以及我的股东信中所述的观点一致，即全球中端市场和小型企业对我们来说是增长机会。情况各不相同，这是一个广阔的领域，我们有自己独特的战略来抓住这些机会。这再次是一个全球性的机会。美国的非许可市场（E&S），坦率地说，这再次是小型商业和中端市场商业的主题，我们在美国的个人险业务，我们在海外的消费者业务，当然，还有一些大客户业务领域目前继续向我们展示良好的增长机会，其中一些更具战术性，一些更具战略性。是的，财产险正在增长，我所说的一切都考虑到了我们所看到的承保环境，这在方向上对我们来说并不意外，我们一直在谈论它，大客户的财产险竞争日益激烈，无论是 E&S 还是许可市场。中端市场、小型财产险在这方面仍然更具纪律性。意外险业务则在应对损失成本环境。然后，你再加上我们一直在做的所有改进工作——在地域覆盖方面，在我们如何处理业务细分方面，在我们拥有专业知识或关注的行业方面，想想现在的 Climate+，想想网络保险等业务线。然后你再想想我们的技术以及我们利用数据所做的工作，这使我们能够根据地理位置接触更多客户，并与不同形式的分销渠道合作以接触客户细分市场，无论是在亚洲的中端市场，还是在墨西哥的汽车保险，或者坦率地说，是在美国的宠物保险。我可以继续说下去。谢谢你的问题。

Gregory Peters

Thank you for the details. I have a follow-up. I was going to go in one direction, but then you brought up technology and for us on the outside, when we ask you about technology, we'll get a couple of sentence answer, but it's really hard for us to figure out what's really going on and what's sort of maintenance technology spend versus what's game changing. In your annual report, you put a technology sort of theme on the cover. So maybe you can spend a minute and give us some additional commentary on the technology piece as part of your first answer.

谢谢您的详细说明。我有一个后续问题。我本来想问另一个方向的问题，但您提到了技术。对于我们外部人士来说，当我们问及技术时，通常只会得到几句话的回答，我们很难弄清楚到底发生了什么，哪些是维护性技术支出，哪些是颠覆性的。在您的年度报告中，封面上就有一个技术主题。所以也许您可以花一分钟时间，作为您第一个回答的一部分，就技术方面给我们一些额外的评论。

Evan Greenberg

Yes, I understand you're at a place, where you make the comment, it's hard for you guys to figure out what's going on. I got it and we have no intention of being more transparent than we are. I said before, we spend over $1 billion, it's about $1.1 billion, $1.2 billion on technology. Roughly half is maintenance and managing what we got 50%, 55% of it and the balance is development of all kinds, whether it's legacy, more what you think of as legacy modernized to provide straight through processing, whether it is technology around the use of data, to improve analytics, to improve our AI capabilities, to supplement what humans do or replace what humans do or improve our insight, whether it's technology that allows us to connect to both customer and distribution partners in an efficient way, whether it's technology and how it's used that speeds up our cycle times of change. We're just far up the road in this. And technology helps to maintain what is the best expense ratio in the industry, and over time, even lower than that expense ratio. So thanks a lot, Greg.

是的，我理解您所处的位置，您评论说你们很难弄清楚到底发生了什么。我明白了，但我们无意比现在更加透明。我之前说过，我们在技术上花费超过 10 亿美元，大约是 11 亿到 12 亿美元。大约一半是维护和管理我们现有的东西，占 50% 到 55%，其余的是各种开发，无论是传统的，更多的是你认为是传统现代化以提供直通式处理的技术，还是围绕数据使用的技术，以改进分析，提高我们的人工智能能力，补充或替代人类的工作或提高我们的洞察力，还是使我们能够高效地连接客户和分销合作伙伴的技术，还是技术及其使用方式可以加快我们的变革周期。我们在这方面已经走得很远了。技术有助于维持行业内最佳的费用率，并且随着时间的推移，甚至可以降低该费用率。所以非常感谢，Greg。

Gregory Peters

There was some, actually, some useful information in that answer. So thanks for your time.

实际上，那个回答里有一些有用的信息。所以谢谢您的时间。

Evan Greenberg

There you go. I just kept it at a certain level. I can't give a roadmap to everyone else who would like one from us.

这就对了。我只是把它保持在一定的水平上。我不能给其他想从我们这里得到路线图的人提供路线图。

Gregory Peters

Makes sense.

有道理。

Evan Greenberg

Thanks a lot.

非常感谢。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

您的下一个问题来自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Mike Zaremski。请提问。

Michael Zaremski

Hey, thanks. Good morning. In regards to the outlook commentary you made, Evan, about continue to expect operating income, EPS to grow at a double-digit rate, and I think you were saying ex-catastrophes and FX, I'm curious if you can kind of give us some flavor of what you think catastrophe inflation is. I guess we can obviously see in our models could CAT losses for you all and others. And I feel like Chubb's CAT loss has actually been better-than-expected, but still elevated for the industry. So any sense of kind of how Chubb is thinking about weather loss and inflation and whether you're able to keeping up or not? Thanks.

嘿，谢谢。早上好。关于您刚才提到的展望评论，Evan，即继续预期运营收入和每股收益（EPS）将以两位数的速度增长，我想您说的是剔除巨灾和外汇因素，我很好奇您是否能给我们一些关于您认为巨灾通胀情况的看法。我想我们显然可以在我们的模型中看到您和其他公司的巨灾损失。我觉得 Chubb 的巨灾损失实际上好于预期，但对整个行业来说仍然偏高。那么，对于 Chubb 如何看待天气损失和通胀，以及是否能够跟上，您有什么看法吗？谢谢。

Evan Greenberg

Mike, on inflation, I gave you and put out the loss cost trends that's, that we are using, and that is proxy. I can't -- I don't have a crystal ball and I cannot prognosticate where inflation actually goes from here in terms of rate and to which goods and products. Any increase in inflation is fundamentally tariff-related and that's a moving target and a chaotic picture at the moment. And it's the kind of thing that we can stay on top of if we're watching early data around goods and around labor costs have to do with physical property construction, reconstruction, infrastructure, et cetera. So that part we're keeping our eye on, but I gave you some sense of inflation. On FX, we have no idea. It bounces around, its ephemeral, the direction of travel, and if policies continue as a weaker dollar. When it comes to catastrophes, well, you're asking me a crystal ball view. There is a natural volatility. Talk about it all the time, but around CATs, you're never going to hit what you price for exactly, which is what the AALs are, and what you're expected is in a quarter, it's either above it, it's below it. You know it moves around and whether one year is going to be heavier than the year before, which for us was lighter last year and the year before that. Who knows? I think handwringing, I don't do any handwringing about it, and we're not. And we update, which is more important to us, we update our view around CATs by peril on an ongoing basis as data additional data comes in and we have more insight and that allows us to ensure that the way we're pricing for risk and our accumulation appetite around CAT perils by geography are within what we'd imagine and contemplate. That's how we run the business. And volatility quarter-to-quarter that's not our obsession.

Mike，关于通胀，我已经向你提供了我们正在使用的损失成本趋势，这是一个代理指标。我没有水晶球，也无法预测通胀从现在开始在利率以及哪些商品和产品方面会走向何方。任何通胀的增加基本上都与关税有关，这是一个移动的目标，目前情况混乱。如果我们关注有关商品和劳动力成本的早期数据，这些数据与实体财产建设、重建、基础设施等有关，那么我们就能掌握这种情况。所以这部分我们正在密切关注，但我已经给了你一些关于通胀的看法。关于外汇，我们一无所知。它上下波动，方向短暂易变，如果政策继续导致美元走弱。至于巨灾，嗯，你是在问我水晶球的看法。存在自然的波动性。我们一直都在谈论它，但关于巨灾，你永远无法精确达到你定价的目标，也就是平均年损失（AALs）所代表的，以及你在一个季度所预期的，它要么高于预期，要么低于预期。你知道它会变动，以及某一年是否会比前一年更严重，对我们来说，去年和前年都比较轻。谁知道呢？我认为没有必要为此焦虑不安，我们也没有。更重要的是，我们会持续更新我们对不同风险类型巨灾的看法，随着更多数据的进来和我们获得更深入的洞察，这使我们能够确保我们对风险的定价方式以及我们按地域划分的巨灾风险累积偏好都在我们设想和考虑的范围内。这就是我们经营业务的方式。季度间的波动不是我们关注的重点。

Michael Zaremski

Understood. That's helpful. Just switching gears quickly.

明白了。这很有帮助。快速转换一下话题。

Evan Greenberg

By the way, I gave you all that as an answer, but we don't give guidance, so.

顺便说一句，我把这些都作为回答告诉你了，但我们不提供指引，所以。

Michael Zaremski

I mean, understood, as you know that we tend to look at recent CAT loads and update future CAT loads taking into the new average. So but now switching gears with respect to --

我的意思是，明白了，如您所知，我们倾向于参考近期的巨灾负荷，并根据新的平均值来更新未来的巨灾负荷。但是现在转换话题，关于——

Evan Greenberg

I've never found the kind of consensus, which is an aggregation of different analysts' work. I've never found it, something other than reasonably rational to me. I don't look at point estimates. I look at the trend of it in the relative neighborhood of quantum and I've never found it anything but rational.

我从未发现那种共识——也就是不同分析师工作的汇总——对我来说除了合理之外还有什么特别之处。我不看具体的点估计。我看的是它在相对数量级范围内的趋势，我从未觉得它不合理。

Michael Zaremski

Okay. Understood. I feel like maybe back in the day, there was a view of your CAT load in the proxy, but I can't remember if that's, that was removed or still there. But I'm just switching gears real quick, I think, much of our incoming from investors is focused on North America commercial social inflation, reserve releases, very strong this quarter, any comments on kind of the environment? I know you gave us the update on what you felt your loss cost inflation was, but any commentary on puts and takes on reserve releases or even the underlying loss ratio, was excellent and improved this quarter? Thanks.

好的。明白了。我感觉好像以前在委托书里有过关于你们巨灾负荷的看法，但我记不清那是否被移除了或者还在。但我现在快速转换话题，我认为，我们从投资者那里收到的很多信息都集中在北美商业险的社会通胀、准备金释放（本季度非常强劲）上，对这种环境有什么评论吗？我知道您更新了您认为的损失成本通胀情况，但是否对准备金释放的利弊因素，或者甚至是对本季度表现出色且有所改善的基础赔付率有什么评论？谢谢。

Evan Greenberg

No, look, the only thing I will say for those who are obsessed simply about North America, it's a large part of our business, but it's -- it really -- it just -- it misses the story of Chubb and who we are, the global nature of the business outside of the United States is not some gray mass that just is a thing out there. It's 54 countries in vital regions of the world and you look at the growth and you look at the quantum and you look at the contribution and to simply obsess about North America and North America loss costs, I think, actually does investors a disservice, but I leave it to the -- to those to do their job as they think they ought to. On the reserve releases, we review again a cohort of portfolios, a different cohort each quarter, and update our view of development. This quarter is generally a smaller quarter in what we review on both the property and the casualty side of the business. And so there was -- this was just an amalgamation of those various long-tail lines, smaller portfolios, embedded and E&S and property the same, physical lines the same.

Evan Greenberg

不，你看，对于那些只关注北美的人，我只想说，这确实是我们业务的很大一部分，但这——真的——它忽略了 Chubb 的故事和我们是谁，美国以外业务的全球性并非只是一个模糊的存在。它遍布全球重要地区的 54 个国家，你看看增长，看看规模，看看贡献，仅仅执着于北美和北美的损失成本，我认为实际上对投资者是不利的，但我把这留给——留给那些认为应该这样做的人去做他们的工作。关于准备金释放，我们每个季度都会审查一批不同的投资组合，并更新我们对发展的看法。本季度通常是我们审查财产险和意外险业务方面规模较小的一个季度。所以，这只是那些各种长期业务线、较小投资组合、许可市场和非许可市场以及财产险、实体险业务线的综合结果。

Michael Zaremski

Thank you.

谢谢。

Evan Greenberg

You're welcome.

不客气。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Please go ahead.

您的下一个问题来自瑞银集团 (UBS) 的 Brian Meredith。请提问。

Brian Meredith

Hey, good morning, Evan. First question, I believe your global property CAT reinsurance program renewed on April 1st. Any kind of changes that we should be thinking about there, cost, retentions, et cetera?

嘿，早上好，Evan。第一个问题，我相信你们的全球财产巨灾再保险计划已于 4 月 1 日续保。我们是否需要考虑任何变化，例如成本、自留额等等？

Evan Greenberg

No sir.

没有，先生。

Brian Meredith

Okay. So fairly similar to what was kind of laid out in the 10-K right now.

好的。所以与目前 10-K 文件中列出的情况相当类似。

Evan Greenberg

Exactly.

完全正确。

Brian Meredith

Perfect. Thank you. And then, Evan, the second question is something I've been getting from some investors. Just curious, how do you think about allocating capital into areas that maybe the kind of political kind of environment right now is a little more contentious or maybe more than a little more contentious in areas like China? How do you think about that right now as far as your capital allocation decisions?

太好了。谢谢。然后，Evan，第二个问题是我从一些投资者那里听到的。只是好奇，您如何看待将资本配置到目前政治环境可能有些争议，或者像中国这样的地区争议可能更大的领域？就您的资本配置决策而言，您目前是如何考虑的？

Evan Greenberg

Well, the world is contentious, I have noticed. And our capital allocation, you see that we made acquisition of a modest nature in Southeast Asia. We'll continue leading in that way, I think it's a metaphor for the notion that it's steady as she goes, China-US aside, the balance of the world there's always going to be a certain amount of volatility, there is -- and as a multinational you know that. We're mindful of the increased volatility that is occurring as a result of our, in particular, our administration's approach to foreign policy and trade as it's emerging and that keeps us mindful. But and we'll be thoughtful, we'll be prudent, but our strategy is our strategy. We're not short-term investors. We're long-term investors, but we invest in a country that's permanent and we participate in the economic and social development in those countries and that is whether it is the United States or it is Thailand, we are participants in that and where we -- and some have more volatility than others do. In a word, it's steady as it goes for us. When it comes to China, which I think is on people's minds in particular, we're not actually investing any additional capital and have been spending for a bit of time. And I don't foresee additional capital investment in China, our exposure is our exposure.

嗯，我注意到世界是充满争议的。关于我们的资本配置，您看到我们在东南亚进行了一项规模适度的收购。我们将继续以这种方式引领，我认为这象征着“稳步前进”的理念，撇开中美关系不谈，世界其他地区总会有一定程度的波动性，这是存在的——作为一家跨国公司，您知道这一点。我们注意到，特别是由于我们政府正在形成的外交和贸易政策方针，波动性正在增加，这让我们保持警惕。但是，我们会深思熟虑，我们会审慎行事，但我们的战略就是我们的战略。我们不是短期投资者。我们是长期投资者，但我们在一个国家进行永久性投资，并参与这些国家的经济和社会发展，无论是在美国还是在泰国，我们都是参与者，而且有些地方比其他地方有更大的波动性。总而言之，对我们来说，就是稳步前进。谈到中国，我认为这是大家特别关心的，我们实际上并没有投入任何额外的资本，并且已经有一段时间没有投入了。而且我预计不会在中国进行额外的资本投资，我们的风险敞口就是我们的风险敞口。

Brian Meredith

Thank you.

谢谢。

Evan Greenberg

And by the way the money doesn't burn a hole in our pocket. How are we allocating capital? We're allocating it for growth in our business where it occurs. We're allocating capital for investments. And right now we're earning 5.5% north of that in our investment portfolio. That seems like a pretty darn good bet to me, and I'll put as much as I can into that.

顺便说一句，钱在我们口袋里不会烧个洞。我们如何配置资本？我们将其配置到业务增长发生的地方。我们配置资本用于投资。目前，我们的投资组合回报率超过 5.5%。对我来说，这似乎是一个相当不错的赌注，我会尽可能多地投入其中。

Brian Meredith

Thanks.

谢谢。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

您的下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。请提问。

David Motemaden

Good morning. Just a question, it definitely sounds like a tale of two cities on the property side with still the small middle-market remaining healthy, but definitely some areas of competition picking up in large account, E&S. I'm wondering if you can help me think through just your view, Evan, if you think sort of that competition that we're seeing in the large account E&S market is sort of a sign of what's to come in the small and middle-market or is there something structural that's different between those two different markets that we should think about where the pricing in the middle-market and small market is more durable on the property side?

早上好。只是一个问题，财产险方面听起来确实像是“双城记”，中小型市场仍然健康，但在大型客户、E&S（非许可市场）领域，竞争肯定有所加剧。我想知道您能否帮我理清您的看法，Evan，您是否认为我们在大型客户 E&S 市场看到的这种竞争是中小型市场即将发生的情况的迹象，或者这两个不同市场之间是否存在结构性差异，使我们应该认为中小型市场的财产险定价更具持久性？

Evan Greenberg

So, David, it's always been structurally different, that's the point, large account business is brokerage driven, you don't need a lot of physical presence. You need not a lot of capability as a company, you need capacity. You need some underwriters and you can participate in the capacity play of large account business. Welcome to a lot of E&S, welcome to London open market, welcome to large companies, companies that engage in large account business and have just a few urban locations to do it out. Now, being the lead on those accounts, issuing the paper, managing the claims, doing the engineering, well that starts to separate it and how you participate. But think about shared and layered large account business. It's a capacity play for most of it up and down the chain. So you come and you put a blind down. Middle-market, small commercial insurance is widely distributed thousands of producers and agents, small average premiums. They typically don't buy one line from you, they buy multiple lines from you. You've got to have presence. You've got to have a lot of capability to support the development of that kind of business. Yes, on the fringes, there are ends of it. It get boxed up by a few brokers and they bring it in a facilitized way. But the vast majority of the market is now you're talking about broad geographic reach, local reach, local capability, multiline, claims capability, engineering capability in a broadly distributed way. David, welcome back to thematic. Welcome. I should take this.

所以，David，结构上一直都是不同的，这就是关键所在，大型客户业务是经纪驱动的，你不需要大量的实体存在。作为一家公司，你不需要很多能力，你需要的是承保能力。你需要一些承保人，你就可以参与大型客户业务的承保能力博弈。欢迎来到大量的 E&S 市场，欢迎来到伦敦公开市场，欢迎来到大型公司，那些从事大型客户业务并且只需要少数几个城市网点就能开展业务的公司。现在，成为这些账户的主承保人、出具保单、管理理赔、进行工程勘察，嗯，这开始区分开来以及你如何参与。但想想共享和分层的大型客户业务。对于链条上的大部分环节来说，这都是一场承保能力的游戏。所以你来了，然后放下百叶窗（意指简单参与）。中端市场、小型商业保险分布广泛，有成千上万的生产商和代理人，平均保费较低。他们通常不会只从你这里购买一种保险，而是购买多种保险。你必须有存在感。你必须有足够的能力来支持这类业务的发展。是的，在边缘地带，也有一些例外。它被少数经纪人打包，并以便利化的方式引入。但绝大多数市场现在你谈论的是广泛的地域覆盖、本地覆盖、本地能力、多险种、理赔能力、广泛分布的工程能力。David，欢迎回到主题。欢迎。我应该接着说。

David Motemaden

Thank you. I appreciate that.

谢谢。我很感激。

Evan Greenberg

Did I leave you?

我让你没话说了吗？

David Motemaden

No. I appreciate that. I guess my mental model, I've always thought large account more cyclical sort of leads the middle-market by a year

不。我很感激。我想我的心智模型是，我一直认为大型客户更具周期性，大约领先中端市场一年

Evan Greenberg

But that's right. That's why.

但那是对的。这就是原因。

David Motemaden

Yes. Okay.

是的。好的。

Evan Greenberg

You asked the question structural. It was a good word. So I focused on the word structural.

你问了结构性的问题。这是个好词。所以我专注于结构性这个词。

David Motemaden

Great. Thank you. And then just as a follow-up, within the overseas general business, I noticed the Europe growth ticked up a little bit, probably too early to see any signs of any sort of fiscal spend over there resulting in an uptick in growth, but I'm wondering how you're thinking about that and having that exposure, how that positions you relative to the US market given all the headwinds that you sort of called out?

太好了。谢谢。然后只是一个后续问题，在海外一般业务中，我注意到欧洲的增长略有回升，现在看到任何财政支出导致增长加速的迹象可能还为时过早，但我想知道您对此有何看法，以及拥有这种风险敞口，考虑到您提到的所有不利因素，这使您相对于美国市场处于何种位置？

Evan Greenberg

Are you thinking economic outlook for those regions?

您是在考虑这些地区的经济前景吗？

David Motemaden

Yes. And economic -- with like the fiscal spending and what that might do to sort of boost growth over there relative to some of the potential weakness that might be coming in the US.

是的。以及经济——比如财政支出以及这可能对提振那里的增长所起的作用，相对于美国可能出现的潜在疲软。

Evan Greenberg

Yes. We have the pleasure in the United States and we ought to really cherish it of being the reserve currency of the world, which gives us a borrowing capability. It certainly doesn't give any other region or country of the world and let's be careful how we abuse that or we won't have that privilege. Others are more constrained in their ability to use fiscal stimulus. Europe, there'll be more fiscal stimulus. It'll be both in the security end and maybe in certain industries as the Europeans are determined to stand on their own two feet, be more independent a bit, and the key is Germany, and they're unlocking the door to much more fiscal, which will support economic growth. All over the world, the theme in our mind is that whatever we thought economic growth was going to be six months ago, to state the obvious, that number has come down. What it will actually be, we don't know, and it will vary by region. Asia will be impacted. Consumers in Asia will be impacted. Export and domestic industries will be impacted. How much is a question mark because the fact that is not clear to us yet. But for Chubb, it will be steady as it goes. It means that growth could be better, growth could be a little worse, don't know, and all that we had in mind when I said I am confident and remain confident in our ability to grow earnings and EPS at a double-digit rate and our thinking about what could be volatility around growth notwithstanding that won't have a significant impact on it at this time. Am I making sense to you?

是的。在美国，我们有幸成为世界储备货币，我们应该真正珍惜这一点，这给了我们借贷能力。这当然是世界上任何其他地区或国家所没有的，我们要小心不要滥用它，否则我们将失去这种特权。其他国家在使用财政刺激措施的能力方面受到更多限制。欧洲将会有更多的财政刺激。这将在安全领域，也可能在某些行业，因为欧洲人决心自力更生，更加独立一些，关键在于德国，他们正在为更多的财政支出打开大门，这将支持经济增长。在世界范围内，我们心中的主题是，显而易见的是，无论我们六个月前认为经济增长会是多少，这个数字现在已经下降了。实际会是多少，我们不知道，而且会因地区而异。亚洲将受到影响。亚洲的消费者将受到影响。出口和国内产业将受到影响。影响有多大还是个问号，因为事实对我们来说还不清楚。但对 Chubb 来说，将是稳步前进。这意味着增长可能会更好，增长可能会稍差一些，不知道，当我们说我对我们以两位数的速度增长收益和每股收益的能力充满信心并保持信心时，我们已经考虑到了所有这些，以及我们对增长可能出现的波动性的思考，尽管这在目前不会对其产生重大影响。我说得有道理吗？

David Motemaden

Yes. No, it makes sense. Thank you.

是的。不，这很有道理。谢谢。

Evan Greenberg

Welcome.

不客气。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Please go ahead.

您的下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。请提问。

Meyer Shields

Great. Thanks so much and good morning. Evan, I was hoping you could take us maybe a level deeper in the judgment behind lowering loss trends in the quarter.

太好了。非常感谢，早上好。Evan，我希望您能带我们更深入地了解本季度降低损失趋势背后的判断依据。

Evan Greenberg

I'm not going any deeper. I'm not going to put out more numbers than I just gave you. I think it stands on its own in its informative, Meyer. What can I help you with? What would you like to know?

我不会再深入了。我不会给出比我刚才给你的更多的数字。我认为它本身就很有信息量，Meyer。我能帮你什么？你想知道什么？

Meyer Shields

So I guess the question that I'm seeing a lot is that the outside that social inflation is running rampant and is a risk of tariffs, which all else equal, I guess would argue for a higher assumed loss trend rather than coming down a little.

所以我想我看到很多的问题是，外部社会通胀猖獗，并且存在关税风险，在其他条件相同的情况下，我认为这会支持更高的假定损失趋势，而不是略有下降。

Evan Greenberg

When you measure it up against where we were, casualty, we're talking by the way, it's all the right side of the dust off. So let's start with that. And on the casualty side, given the blend of business, the loss cost on trend in aggregate and long tail is up modestly, 10s of basis points. And on the physical side, given the mix of business and what we see, it's down 10s of points, I want to say from memory, 0.3% approximately. So we're not talking much. And on the physical side, look, I know what our PEGs contemplate for loss cost. We're mindful of tariff and we will see as we go forward. At the moment, we set our PEGs conservatively, and therefore, we don't see a need to adjust trend.

当你把它与我们之前的情况进行比较时，顺便说一句，我们谈论的是意外伤害险，这都是尘埃落定后的正确方面。所以让我们从这里开始。在意外伤害险方面，考虑到业务组合，总体和长尾业务的趋势损失成本略有上升，几十个基点。而在物质损失方面，考虑到业务组合和我们所看到的，它下降了几十个基点，我想凭记忆说，大约是 0.3%。所以我们谈论的不多。在物质损失方面，看，我知道我们的 PEG（定价、承保和增长）考虑了损失成本。我们注意到关税，我们将拭目以待。目前，我们保守地设定了 PEG，因此，我们认为没有必要调整趋势。

Meyer Shields

Okay. That is perfect. That's exactly what I was looking for. Second unrelated question, I guess one potential impact of tariffs is that there's less demand for crops, and thinking of soybeans going to China. What can you do with, say, North American agriculture to ameliorate that impact on this year's underwriting results?

好的。这太完美了。这正是我想要的。第二个不相关的问题，我想关税的一个潜在影响是农作物需求减少，比如出口到中国的**大豆**。对于北美农业，比如说，你们能做些什么来减轻这种对今年承保业绩的影响？

Evan Greenberg

Yes, right now, if I understand your question, when I look at the -- we look at the major crops, so let's take corn and soybean, that's the majority of it. We priced our contracts. We priced the contracts, the government formula sets it in February and you have a certain going in crop price insurance contracts. As you know, it's yield and price that are the exposure. And right now, actually, corn and soybeans are within a few percentage points of the February pricing. There hadn't been much change. Beyond that, which I won't go into any detail on because it's proprietary, you know, that like reinsurance, we use hedging to protect a certain degree of volatility, and let's just say, we're mindful of that tool and we know how to employ them and do it.

是的，现在，如果我理解你的问题，当我看——我们看主要农作物，那么让我们以玉米和**大豆**为例，这是其中的大部分。我们给合同定价了。我们给合同定价，政府公式在二月份设定，你有一个特定的初始作物价格保险合同。如你所知，风险敞口是产量和价格。而现在，实际上，玉米和**大豆**的价格与二月份的定价相差只有几个百分点。没有太大变化。除此之外，我不会详细说明，因为这是专有信息，你知道，就像再保险一样，我们使用对冲来保护一定程度的波动性，我们只能说，我们注意到了这个工具，并且知道如何使用它们并付诸实践。

Meyer Shields

Okay. That is helpful. Thank you so much.

好的。这很有帮助。非常感谢。

Evan Greenberg

You're welcome.

不客气。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Operator

您的下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Alex Scott。请提问。

Alex Scott

Hey, good morning. First one I had for you is on casualty. Just seeing the rate continue to accelerate, loss trend also up a little bit. Is the price adequacy getting to the point where that's becoming a more interesting opportunity? I'd just be interested in your high-level thoughts on sort of the direction of that and how much more is needed before be more interested in that is a big opportunity?

Alex Scott

嘿，早上好。我第一个问题是关于意外伤害险的。我们看到费率持续加速上涨，损失趋势也略有上升。价格充足性是否已经达到了使其成为一个更有吸引力的机会的程度？我只是想了解您对这一趋势方向的宏观看法，以及还需要多少才能使其成为一个更值得关注的重大机遇？

Evan Greenberg

I'll repeat what I said, the casualty is getting rate where it needs to get rate, and whether it is large account or it's in the middle-market, we are growing our casualty exposure, and I'm going to leave it at that.

Evan Greenberg

我重复一下我说过的话，意外伤害险正在获得它需要获得的费率，无论是在大客户市场还是中端市场，我们都在增加我们的意外伤害险风险敞口，我就说到这里。

Alex Scott

Okay. The second one I have for you is on the reinsurance market. I know it's not a huge business for you and you don't necessarily lean in or lean out the way that some do. But I just wanted to understand how you're viewing that business, particularly headed into sort of this renewal period and increased capacity that we're seeing in property more broadly. What would you expect out of that market? And is that still price adequate enough to be something you want to be involved in?

Alex Scott

好的。我第二个问题是关于再保险市场的。我知道这对你们来说不是一个很大的业务，你们也不一定会像某些公司那样积极介入或退出。但我只是想了解您如何看待这项业务，特别是在进入这个续保期以及我们看到财产险领域普遍增加的承保能力的情况下。您对这个市场有什么期望？它的价格是否仍然足够充足，值得你们参与其中？

Evan Greenberg

As a buyer of reinsurance, steady as she goes, and as a seller of reinsurance, you see that we have grown this quarter, it's more property than casualty related, though we see opportunities in both.

Evan Greenberg

作为再保险的买家，我们稳步前进；作为再保险的卖家，您可以看到我们本季度有所增长，这更多地与财产险相关，而不是意外伤害险，尽管我们在两者中都看到了机会。

Alex Scott

Okay. Thank you.

Alex Scott

好的。谢谢。

Evan Greenberg

Thank you.

Evan Greenberg

谢谢。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

您的下一个问题来自高盛的 Robert Cox。请提问。

Robert Cox

Hey, thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to circle back to the tariffs. Evan, you mentioned being mindful of the impact tariffs could have on short-tail lines and it's clearly a moving target. Do you have any early sense of the magnitude of the loss trend impact? And I was also curious on how you're able to incorporate a moving target like that into your pricing strategy today or is that still wait and see?

嘿，谢谢您回答我的问题。我只是想回到关税的问题上。Evan，您提到要注意关税可能对短尾业务线产生的影响，这显然是一个不断变化的目标。您对损失趋势影响的程度有初步的判断吗？我也很好奇您今天如何能够将这样一个不断变化的目标纳入您的定价策略，还是说这仍然需要观望？

Evan Greenberg

So you want to underwrite with facts and you don't want to anticipate with conjecture, unless you have clarity around your conjecture, being a, if you have 70% or 80% certainty as an example, then we would take a certain period. There is no clarity at the moment. It is a moving target, the administration has an objective to reach trade agreements over 90 days with a large number of countries. And what will that mean in terms of tariffs go forward? It's unclear. I have a stated objective just voiced to have negotiations with China, knowing China, knowing the complexity of our trade relationship that will be a protracted discussion that would not be marked. Demand, if tariffs remain high will be impacted. How will that impact inflation? There's uncertainty around all of that. Now let's get to some math. When I think about property insurance today and I think about the current accident year, this year, keep in mind, loss ratio develops on an earned basis. So a lot of it has already been written, it's already being earned, it's already in the can. There you go. As you go forward on a written basis, and as months go along, if we see a change in inflation, the markers that will in fact change inflation, we will adjust our pricing in that cohort. Go one step further, imagine on the physical side how much comes from Mexico and Canada, as an example, as inputs. What will happen in terms of tariffs in North America and in terms of USMCA negotiations? So on the claim side, all of this is on our minds as we measure the change of price of goods and of labor. And all of it is on our minds as we watch negotiations that will ultimately lead to a more steady and clear environment around what will tariff levels actually be and apply to what goods and then there's a lag on it.

所以，你想基于事实进行承保，而不是基于推测进行预测，除非你对你的推测有清晰的认识，比如，如果你有 70% 或 80% 的确定性，那么我们会采取一定的期限。目前还没有明确性。这是一个不断变化的目标，政府的目标是在 90 天内与大量国家达成贸易协议。这对未来的关税意味着什么？目前尚不清楚。我刚刚表达了一个明确的目标，即与中国进行谈判，了解中国，了解我们贸易关系的复杂性，这将是一场旷日持久的讨论，不会有明确结果。如果关税保持高位，需求将受到影响。这将如何影响通货膨胀？所有这些都存在不确定性。现在让我们来看一些数学问题。当我考虑今天的财产保险，并考虑当前的事故年份，也就是今年，请记住，赔付率是按已赚保费计算的。所以很多业务已经承保，已经在赚取保费，已经尘埃落定。就是这样。随着时间的推移，在承保基础上，如果随着月份的推移，我们看到通货膨胀发生变化，那些实际上会改变通货膨胀的指标，我们将在该业务群组中调整我们的定价。再进一步，想象一下在物质损失方面，有多少来自墨西哥和加拿大作为输入，例如。在北美关税方面以及美墨加协定（USMCA）谈判方面会发生什么？因此，在理赔方面，当我们衡量商品和劳动力价格变化时，所有这些都在我们的考虑之中。当我们关注那些最终将导致围绕关税水平实际是多少、适用于哪些商品形成更稳定、更清晰环境的谈判时，所有这些也都在我们的考虑之中，并且这其中还存在滞后效应。

Robert Cox

Got it. Thank you for all those details. If I could ask a follow-up, I wanted to get a sense of your view of E&S market growth for Chubb? We've talked about more competition in E&S property, but there's also, it seems like some secular tailwinds for the E&S market, would you expect Chubb to kind of continue to grow more in the E&S market versus admitted going forward?

明白了。感谢您提供所有这些细节。如果我可以问一个后续问题，我想了解您对安达（Chubb）在 E&S（超额和剩余险）市场增长的看法？我们已经讨论过 E&S 财产险市场竞争加剧的问题，但似乎 E&S 市场也存在一些长期有利因素，您是否期望安达未来在 E&S 市场的增长会继续超过许可市场？

Evan Greenberg

I just gave commentary that said, we grew E&S at 10%. I explained the property market, the casualty market, mixed into all of that. Our discipline in underwriting and what we see as opportunity, we grew E&S 10.1%. I also gave a sense of 80% of our business with growth opportunity go forward. So I'm going to leave it at that. Thank you very much.

我刚刚的评论中提到，我们的 E&S 业务增长了 10%。我解释了财产险市场、意外伤害险市场，以及所有这些混合因素。我们在承保方面的纪律以及我们所看到的机遇，使我们的 E&S 业务增长了 10.1%。我还提到我们 80% 的业务未来都有增长机会。所以我就说到这里。非常感谢。

Operator

I will now turn the call back over to Karen Beyer for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

我现在将电话转回给 Karen Beyer 做结束语。请讲。

Karen Beyer

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we will be around to take your call. Enjoy the day.

感谢大家今天参加我们的会议。如果您有任何后续问题，我们将随时接听您的电话。祝您有愉快的一天。

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士们先生们，今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢大家的参与。您现在可以挂断电话了。