Operator

接线员

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's First Quarter 2025 Q&A Webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q1 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

大家下午好，欢迎参加特斯拉 2025 年第一季度问答网络直播。我是投资者关系主管 Travis Axelrod，今天与我一同出席的有 Elon Musk、Vaibhav Taneja 以及其他几位高管。我们已于中部时间下午 3 点左右，在本次网络直播相同的链接发布了更新资料，公布了我们第一季度的业绩。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

在本次电话会议中，我们将讨论我们的业务前景并做出前瞻性陈述。这些评论基于我们截至今日的预测和预期。实际事件或结果可能因多种风险和不确定性而存在重大差异，包括我们最近向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的文件中提到的那些风险和不确定性。

During the question-and-answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue. Before we jump into Q&A, Elon will be providing an update. Elon?

在今天电话会议的问答环节，请将您的问题限制在一个问题和一次追问。请使用举手按钮加入提问队列。在我们进入问答环节之前，Elon 将提供最新情况。Elon？

Elon Musk

埃隆·马斯克

Hello, everyone. Well, there’s never a dull moment these days. Thanks for sure. Every day is going to be exciting. As some people know, there's been some blowback for the time that I've been spending in government with the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE. I think the work that we're doing there is actually very important for trying to sprain in the insane deficit that is leading our country, the United States, to destruction. And the DOGE team has made a lot of progress in addressing waste and fraud. The natural blowback from that is those who were receiving the wasteful dollars and the fortunate dollars will try to attack me and DOGE team and anything associated with me. So, but then I'm really left with two choices. Should we just let the waste and fraud continue? And it was continuing at a -- to grow at a really unsustainable pace that was bankrupting the country or to fight the waste and fraud and try to get the country back on the right track. And I believe the right thing to do is to just fight the waste and fraud and get the country back on the right track and working together with President Trump and his administration. Because if the ship of America goes down, we all go down with it, including Tesla and everyone else. So, I think this is critical work.

大家好。嗯，这些日子从来没有平淡的时候。肯定是的。每一天都会很刺激。有些人知道，我投入时间在政府的政府效率部（Department of Government Efficiency，简称 DOGE）工作，这引来了一些负面反应。我认为我们在那里所做的工作实际上非常重要，旨在努力遏制那正将我们国家——美国——引向毁灭的巨额赤字。DOGE 团队在解决浪费和欺诈问题上取得了很大进展。由此产生的自然反弹是，那些收取浪费性资金和不正当资金的人会试图攻击我、DOGE 团队以及任何与我相关的事物。所以，但我实际上只剩下两个选择。我们是应该让浪费和欺诈继续下去吗？它正以一种真正不可持续的速度持续增长，这正在使国家破产；还是应该与浪费和欺诈作斗争，努力让国家重回正轨。我相信正确的做法就是与浪费和欺诈作斗争，让国家重回正轨，并与特朗普总统及其政府合作。因为如果美国这艘船沉没，我们所有人都会随之沉没，包括特斯拉和其他所有人。所以，我认为这是至关重要的工作。

Now, the protests that you'll see out there, they're very organized, they're paid for. They're obviously not going to say, admit that the reason that they're protesting is because they're receiving fraudulent money or that they are the recipients of wasteful largesse, but they're going to come up with some other reason. But that is - the real reason for the protests, the actual reason is that those receiving the waste and fraud wish to continue receiving it. That is the real thing that's going on here, obviously. So, now that said, I do think there's the large slug of work necessary to get the DOGE team in place and working in the government to get the financial house in order is mostly done. And I think starting probably next month, May, my time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly. I'll have to continue doing it for, I think, probably the remainder of the President's term, just to make sure that the waste and fraud that we stop does not come roaring back, which will do if it has the chance. So, I think I'll continue to spend a day or two per week on government matters for as long as the President would like me to do so and as long as it is useful. But starting next month, I'll be allocating probably more of my time to Tesla and now that the major work of establishing the Department of Government Efficiency is done.

现在，你在外面看到的那些抗议活动，它们非常有组织，是有人出钱的。他们显然不会说，承认他们抗议的原因是因为他们正在收取欺诈性资金，或者他们是浪费性慷慨施舍的接受者，但他们会编造出其他一些理由。但这就是——抗议的真正原因，实际原因是那些接受浪费和欺诈的人希望继续接受。这显然是这里正在发生的真实情况。所以，话虽如此，我确实认为，让 DOGE 团队就位并在政府中运作以整顿财政秩序所需的大量工作大部分已经完成。我认为大概从下个月，也就是五月开始，我分配给 DOGE 的时间将大幅减少。我想，我可能需要在总统剩余任期内继续这样做，只是为了确保我们阻止的浪费和欺诈不会卷土重来，如果有机会的话，它们会的。所以，我想只要总统希望我这样做，并且只要这样做是有用的，我将继续每周花一两天时间处理政府事务。但从下个月开始，既然建立政府效率部的主要工作已经完成，我可能会将更多的时间分配给特斯拉。

So, at Tesla, we've gone through many, many crises over the years and actually been through many near-death experiences. We were probably on the ragged edge of death at least on maybe a dozen times. It's been so many times. This is not one of those times. We're not on the ragged edge of death, not even close. So -- but there are some challenges, and I expect that this year will be, there will probably be some unexpected bumps this year. But I remain extremely optimistic about the future of the company.

所以，在特斯拉，多年来我们经历了很多很多危机，实际上也经历了很多次濒临绝境的经历。我们可能至少有十几次徘徊在死亡边缘。这种情况发生过很多次了。现在不是那种时候。我们没有徘徊在死亡边缘，差得远呢。所以——但是存在一些挑战，我预计今年会是，今年可能会有一些意想不到的波折。但我对公司的未来仍然极其乐观。

The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale, large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots. So the value of a company that makes truly useful autonomous humanoid robots and autonomous useful vehicles at scale at low cost, which is what Tesla is going to do, is staggering. I continue to believe that Tesla, with excellent execution, will be the most valuable company in the world by far. But that's an important if, we must execute well. But if we do execute well, I think Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world by far. It may be as valuable as the next five companies combined.

公司的未来从根本上是建立在大规模自动驾驶汽车和大规模、大批量、数量庞大的自主人形机器人之上的。因此，一家能够以低成本大规模生产真正有用的自主人形机器人和自主有用车辆的公司——这正是特斯拉将要做的——其价值是惊人的。我仍然相信，凭借出色的执行力，特斯拉将成为世界上遥遥领先的最有价值的公司。但这有一个重要的前提条件，我们必须执行得好。但如果我们确实执行得好，我认为特斯拉将成为世界上遥遥领先的最有价值的公司。它的价值可能相当于接下来五家公司的总和。

So, but there'll be a few bumps along the road before that happens. I said I think on the last earnings call that we'll start to see the prosperity of autonomy take effect in a material way around the middle of next year. We expect to have these -- be selling fully autonomous rides in June in Austin, as we've been saying for now several months. So that's continued, but the real question from financial standpoint is when does it really become material and affect bottom line of the company and start to be a fundamental part of the -- when does it move the financial needle in a significant way? That's probably around the middle of next year, second half of next year. And then once it does start to move the financial needle in a significant way, it will really go exponential from there.

所以，但在那发生之前，路上会有一些波折。我想我在上次财报电话会议上说过，我们将开始看到自动驾驶带来的繁荣大约在明年年中以实质性的方式显现出来。我们预计将在六月份在奥斯汀提供完全自动驾驶的出行服务，正如我们几个月来一直所说的。所以这仍在继续，但从财务角度来看，真正的问题是它何时真正产生实质性影响，影响公司的净利润，并开始成为——它何时能对财务产生重大影响？那可能是在明年年中左右，明年下半年。然后，一旦它确实开始对财务产生重大影响，从那时起，它将真正实现指数级增长。

So that's, I'd encourage people to look beyond like the, some sort of bumps and bundles of each road immediately ahead of us. But left your gaze to the bright shining sort of down the hill, I don't know, some Reagan-esque imagery. And that's where we're headed and not too distant future. Like I said, kind of next year or two. So, let's see.

所以，我鼓励大家不要只看眼前道路上的那些颠簸和障碍。而是将目光投向山下那片光明的未来——不知道，有点里根式的意象。那就是我们前进的方向，而且为期不远。就像我说的，大概未来一两年。所以，让我们拭目以待。

With respect to supply chain risk, something that Tesla has been working on for several years is to localize supply chains. This actually makes sense from a cost standpoint and from a logistics risk standpoint, is to have the supply chains be at least located on the continent in which the car is built. And so we are, I think the least, a company, the least affected car company with respect to tariffs, at least in most respects, I mean, it remains to be seen. Now, tariffs are still tough on a company when margins are still low. But we do have localized supply chains in North America, Europe, and China. So that puts us in a stronger position than any of our competitors.

关于供应链风险，特斯拉几年来一直在做的一件事就是供应链本地化。这实际上从成本角度和物流风险角度来看都是有意义的，即让供应链至少位于汽车制造所在的大洲。因此，我认为，至少在大多数方面，我们是受关税影响最小的汽车公司，我的意思是，这还有待观察。当然，在利润率仍然很低的情况下，关税对公司来说仍然是严峻的。但我们在北美、欧洲和中国确实拥有本地化的供应链。这使我们处于比任何竞争对手都更有利的地位。

And undoubtedly, I'm going to get a lot of questions about tariffs, and I just want to emphasize that the tariff decision is entirely up to the President of the United States. I will weigh in with my advice with the President, which he will listen to my advice, but then it's up to him, of course, to make his decision. I've been on the record many times saying that I believe lower tariffs are generally a good idea for prosperity, but this decision is fundamentally up to the elected representative of the people being the President of the United States. So, you know, I'll continue to advocate for lower tariffs rather than higher tariffs, but that's all I can do.

毫无疑问，我会收到很多关于关税的问题，我只想强调，关税决定完全取决于美国总统。我会向总统提出我的建议，他会听取我的建议，但当然，最终由他做出决定。我曾多次公开表示，我相信降低关税通常对繁荣有利，但这个决定根本上取决于人民选出的代表，即美国总统。所以，你知道，我会继续倡导降低而非提高关税，但这就是我所能做的。

So, now let me walk you through why I'm so excited about the future of Tesla. So, first of all, autonomy. The team and I are laser focused on bringing robotaxi to Austin in June. Unsupervised autonomy will first be solved for the Model Y in Austin. And then -- actually you should parse out the terms robotic taxi or robotaxi and just generally like what's the Cybercab because we've got a product called the Cybercab and then any Tesla which could be an S3 extra wide that is autonomous is a robotic taxi or robotaxi. It's very confusing. So the vast majority of the Tesla fleet that we've made is capable of being a robotaxi or robotic taxi.

那么，现在让我向大家解释一下为什么我对特斯拉的未来如此兴奋。首先是自动驾驶。团队和我正全力以赴，争取在六月将 Robotaxi（机器人出租车）引入奥斯汀。无监督自动驾驶将首先在奥斯汀的 Model Y 上实现。然后——实际上，你应该区分一下“robotic taxi”或“robotaxi”这些术语，以及通常意义上的 Cybercab 是什么，因为我们有一个名为 Cybercab 的产品，然后任何能够自动驾驶的特斯拉，无论是 S、3、X 还是 Y，都可以成为 robotic taxi 或 robotaxi。这很容易混淆。所以，我们生产的绝大多数特斯拉车队都有能力成为 robotaxi 或 robotic taxi。

And as we're going from -- once we can make the whole system work where you can have paid rides fully autonomously with no one in the car in one city, that is a very scalable thing for us to go broadly within whatever jurisdiction allows us to operate. So, because we're solving for is a general solution to autonomy, not a city specific solution for autonomy. Once we make it work in a few cities, we can basically make it work in all cities in that legal jurisdiction. So, if it’s -- once we can make it based to work in a few cities in America, we can make it work anywhere in America. Once we can make it work in a few cities in China, we can make it work anywhere in China, likewise in Europe, limited only by regulatory approvals. So, this is the advantage of having a generalized solution using artificial intelligence. And the -- an AI chip that Tesla designed specifically for this purpose as opposed to very expensive sensors and high precision maps of a particular neighborhood where that neighborhood may change or often changes and then the car stops working. So, we have a general solution instead of a specific solution.

而且，一旦我们能让整个系统在一个城市实现运转，即你可以在车内无人的情况下提供完全自动驾驶的付费出行服务，这对我们来说就是一个非常可扩展的事情，可以在任何允许我们运营的司法管辖区内广泛推广。因为我们正在解决的是一个通用的自动驾驶解决方案，而不是针对特定城市的自动驾驶解决方案。一旦我们让它在几个城市成功运行，我们基本上就能让它在那个法律管辖区内的所有城市运行。所以，如果——一旦我们能让它在美国的几个城市运行，我们就能让它在美国的任何地方运行。一旦我们能让它在中国的几个城市运行，我们就能让它在中国的任何地方运行，欧洲也是如此，唯一的限制是监管批准。所以，这就是使用人工智能的通用解决方案的优势。以及——特斯拉专门为此目的设计的人工智能芯片，而不是依赖非常昂贵的传感器和特定社区的高精度地图，因为那些社区可能会改变，或者经常改变，然后汽车就无法工作了。所以，我们拥有的是通用解决方案，而不是特定解决方案。

Then, with regards to Optimus, we’re making good progress in Optimus. We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, 10 years forward. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history, to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible. I think I feel confident in getting to a million units per year in less than five years, maybe five years. So, by 2030, I feel confident in predicting a million Optimus units per year, it might be 2029.

然后，关于 Optimus（擎天柱机器人），我们在 Optimus 上取得了良好进展。我们预计到今年年底，将有数千台 Optimus 机器人在特斯拉工厂工作。我们预计 Optimus 的规模扩张速度将超过历史上任何产品，尽快达到每年数百万台的产量。我想我有信心在不到五年，也许五年内，达到每年一百万台的产量。所以，到 2030 年，我有信心预测 Optimus 年产量将达到一百万台，也许是 2029 年。

So, let's see with respect to energy, energy business is doing very well. The Megapack is -- enables utility companies to output far more total energy than would otherwise be the case. When you think of the energy capability of a grid, it's much more than, say, total energy output per year. If the powerplants could operate at peak power for all 24 hours, as opposed to being at half power, sometimes a quarter power at night, then you could double the energy output of existing power plants. But in order to do that, you need to buffer the energy, so that you can charge up something like a battery pack at night and then discharge into the grid during the day. So, this is a massive unlock on total energy output of any given grid over the course of a year. And utility companies are beginning to realize this and are buying in our Megapacks at scale. So, at this point, a gigawatt class battery is quite a common thing. So, we have many orders and offer for gigawatt and beyond batteries. And we expect the energy -- the stationary energy storage business to scale ultimately to terawatts per year. So very, very good numbers.

接下来看看能源方面，能源业务表现非常好。Megapack 使公用事业公司能够输出远超以往可能的总能量。当你考虑电网的能源能力时，它远不止是每年的总能量输出。如果发电厂能够全天 24 小时以峰值功率运行，而不是有时在夜间以半功率、甚至四分之一功率运行，那么现有发电厂的能量输出就可以翻倍。但要做到这一点，你需要缓冲能量，这样你就可以在夜间给像电池组这样的东西充电，然后在白天向电网放电。因此，这对任何给定电网在一年内的总能量输出是一个巨大的释放。公用事业公司正开始意识到这一点，并大规模采购我们的 Megapack。所以，目前，吉瓦级的电池已经相当普遍。我们有很多吉瓦级及以上电池的订单和报价。我们预计能源——固定式储能业务最终将扩展到每年太瓦时（TWh）的规模。所以是非常非常好的数字。

Now, Q1, first quarters of a year are usually pretty tricky. Because it's usually the worst quarter of the year because people don't want to go buy a car in the middle of winter during the blizzard. So we picked Q1 as a good quarter to do a cutover to the new version of the Model Y and we changed production of the world's best selling cars with -- remember the Model Y is the best selling car of any kind on earth with a 1.1 million unit per year output of a single model. And we did this changeover at the same time in factories all across the world. So congratulations to the Tesla team on an amazing job in pulling off what is a very difficult transition. So yeah, it's really very impressive work. So, yeah.

现在，关于第一季度，每年的第一季度通常都相当棘手。因为它通常是一年中最差的季度，因为人们不想在隆冬时节、暴风雪中去买车。所以我们选择第一季度作为一个好时机，来进行 Model Y 新版本的切换，我们改变了这款全球最畅销汽车的生产——请记住，Model Y 是地球上任何类型中最畅销的汽车，单一车型年产量达 110 万辆。我们在全球各地的工厂同时进行了这次转换。所以祝贺特斯拉团队出色地完成了这项非常困难的过渡工作。是的，这确实是非常令人印象深刻的工作。是的。

In conclusion, while there are many near-term headwinds for us and the border industry, the future for Tesla is brighter than ever. The value of the company is delivering sustainable abundance with our affordable AI powered robots. So this, I like this phrase, sustainable abundance for all. If you say, like, what's the ideal future that you can imagine? That's what you'd want. You'd want abundance for all in a way that's sustainable. It's good for the environment. Basically, this is the happy future. If you say what's the happiest future you can imagine. One which is that would be a future where there's sustainable abundance for all. Closest thing to heaven we can get on Earth, basically.

总而言之，尽管我们和整个行业面临许多短期阻力，但特斯拉的未来比以往任何时候都更加光明。公司的价值在于通过我们负担得起的人工智能驱动的机器人，实现可持续的富足。所以，我喜欢这个短语，为所有人实现可持续的富足。如果你问，你能想象的最理想的未来是什么？那就是你想要的。你会想要为所有人实现富足，并且是以可持续的方式。这对环境有益。基本上，这就是幸福的未来。如果你问你能想象的最幸福的未来是什么。那就是一个为所有人实现可持续富足的未来。基本上是我们能在地球上得到的最接近天堂的东西。

So, thank you again to the test team for all their efforts of the challenging time. I look forward to continuing to lead the team to great success in the future.

所以，再次感谢特斯拉团队在这个充满挑战的时期所付出的所有努力。我期待着继续带领团队在未来取得巨大成功。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much, Elon. Before we move on, Vaibhav has some opening remarks as well.

好的。非常感谢，Elon。在我们继续之前，Vaibhav 也有一些开场白。

Vaibhav Taneja

Thanks, Elon. As Elon mentioned, in Q1, we achieved something which has never been undertaken in the automotive industry of updating all our factories for the best-selling car in the world, all at the same time. And this is, people don't understand, this was not a small feat. We're not aware of anybody else being able to do the best-selling car all at once within a quarter. And that too hitting all the timelines which we had established at the beginning. So, big kudos to the team for making this happen. Additionally, we also hit record gross profit for energy storage business in the quarter.

谢谢，Elon。正如 Elon 所提到的，在第一季度，我们完成了一项汽车行业从未有过的壮举，即同时更新我们所有工厂，以生产全球最畅销的汽车。而且，人们可能不理解，这绝非易事。据我们所知，没有其他任何公司能够在一个季度内同时完成最畅销车型的（工厂）更新。而且，我们还达成了最初设定的所有时间表。所以，非常感谢团队实现了这一切。此外，本季度我们的储能业务也创下了历史最高的毛利润记录。

Now, getting back into the business, there has been a lot of speculation as to the reasons for decline of our vehicle deliveries in the first quarter. We had previously guided that we will be updating all factories and this will lead to several weeks of lost production, which did happen as planned. The ripple effect of the change is not having enough new Model Y available in most markets for people to see and experience till the last few weeks of the quarter. Additionally, the negative impact of vandalism and unwanted hostility towards our brand and our people had an impact in certain markets. Despite this, we were able to sell out legacy Model Y in US, China, and a few other markets within the world. And again, just so that people understand, we were producing the legacy Model Y till middle to end of February. And we switched over and we were able to still sell out within that period. So, again, big achievement by all the people at Tesla to make it happen.

现在，回到业务方面，关于我们第一季度汽车交付量下降的原因，外界有很多猜测。我们之前已经预告过，我们将更新所有工厂，这将导致数周的生产损失，而这确实按计划发生了。这次变更的连锁反应是，直到本季度最后几周，大多数市场才开始有足够的新款 Model Y 供人们观看和体验。此外，针对我们品牌和员工的破坏行为和不必要的敌意，在某些市场也产生了影响。尽管如此，我们还是成功地在美国、中国和全球其他一些市场售罄了旧款 Model Y。再次强调，以便大家理解，我们生产旧款 Model Y 一直持续到二月中下旬。然后我们进行了切换，并且仍然能够在那段时间内售罄。所以，再次感谢特斯拉所有员工的努力，使这成为可能。

We've been extremely -- we have a very extremely competitive vehicle lineup, which with most vehicles going through a recent update, and add to that, if it wants an FSD, you have a personal chauffeur which can take you almost anywhere under supervision. There are numerous stories shared by customers ranging from how it has improved their daily commute, to providing mobility to customers with disabilities, to giving older customers the ability to travel comfortably and independently. Not only is FSD Supervised safer than a human driver, but it is also improving the lives of individuals who experience it. And again, this is something you have to experience, and anybody who has experience just knows it. And we've been doing a lot lately to try and get those stories out, at least on X, so that people can see how other people have benefited from this.

我们拥有极具竞争力的车辆阵容，其中大部分车辆最近都进行了更新，再加上，如果选配了 FSD（完全自动驾驶能力），你就拥有了一个私人司机，可以在监督下带你到几乎任何地方。有许多客户分享的故事，从 FSD 如何改善了他们的日常通勤，到为残疾客户提供出行能力，再到让年长客户能够舒适独立地出行。FSD（监督版）不仅比人类驾驶员更安全，而且还在改善体验者的生活。再次强调，这是需要亲身体验的，任何体验过的人都明白这一点。我们最近做了很多努力，试图将这些故事传播出去，至少在 X 平台上，这样人们就能看到其他人是如何从中受益的。

Now, coming into some of the financial stuff, auto margins declined sequentially primarily due to a reduction in the total number of deliveries, lower fixed cost absorption due to factory change awards and lower regulatory credit revenues offset by a slight increase in pricing due to the launch of new Model Y despite incentives which we had to sell legacy Model Y. Our energy storage business, like I said before, has achieved yet another milestone of create highest gross profit in the quarter. This was despite sequential decline in deployments. The importance of this business, as Elon mentioned, is pretty profound, especially in this environment. Because, in order for our grid to work properly with the demands from AI and all this, you need some more stability. This is by far the simplest and best solution, which we are aware of, which can help do this. And we've also developed certain unique solutions to help our customers to achieve this. Additionally, on the Powerwall side, we've been selling the new Powerwall 3, and it's been received with very good reception from customers, and to the extent that we are currently supply constraint.

现在谈谈一些财务方面的情况，汽车业务利润率环比下降，主要是由于总交付量减少、工厂转换导致的固定成本分摊降低以及监管信贷收入减少，但新 Model Y 的推出带来定价略有上涨（尽管有销售旧款 Model Y 的激励措施）部分抵消了这些影响。我们的储能业务，正如我之前所说，在本季度实现了又一个里程碑，创造了最高的季度毛利润。尽管部署量环比有所下降。这项业务的重要性，正如 Elon 所提到的，是相当深远的，尤其是在当前环境下。因为，为了让我们的电网能够正常应对来自人工智能等方面的需求，你需要更高的稳定性。这是迄今为止我们所知的最简单、最好的解决方案，可以帮助实现这一点。而且我们还开发了一些独特的解决方案来帮助我们的客户实现这一目标。此外，在 Powerwall 方面，我们一直在销售新的 Powerwall 3，客户反响非常好，以至于我们目前面临供应限制。

On services and other margins, they were slightly down sequentially, primarily because of the pressure on our used car business and insurance business. Note that we continued our journey to improve profitability in our services and collision business through better labor productivity. As previously discussed, our operating expenses continue to increase sequentially, primarily due to our AI-related initiatives, including Optimus, and also cost of development for our vehicle programs, including Cybercabs, SEMA, and cheaper models. These expenses flow through R&D. We believe even in the current environment, it is the right strategy, in making investments in these areas to position us for the long term. These increases were offset by decreases in SG&A changes in our vertical effort program.

在服务及其他业务的利润率方面，环比略有下降，主要是因为我们的二手车业务和保险业务面临压力。请注意，我们通过提高劳动生产率，继续致力于提高服务和碰撞维修业务的盈利能力。如前所述，我们的运营支出持续环比增长，主要是由于我们与人工智能相关的计划（包括 Optimus），以及我们的车辆项目（包括 Cybercab、SEMA 和更便宜车型）的开发成本。这些费用计入研发（R&D）支出。我们相信，即使在当前环境下，在这些领域进行投资以实现长期定位也是正确的战略。这些增长被我们垂直整合项目中 SG&A（销售、一般和行政费用）的减少所抵消。

Other income reduced significantly on a sequential basis. The primary reason was Bitcoin mark to market loss in Q1 versus gain in Q4, resulting in a $472 million drop. The remainder of the change is because of FX reimbursement. With the adoption of the new mark to market standard for Bitcoin, we expect increased volatility in other income in addition to the FX volatility. I know tariffs is the hottest topic which people talk about and it has various impacts to our business. And as Elon mentioned, on the vehicle business, we've been on this journey of regionalization for years. Specifically in the US, Model Y has been rated the most American model made car on Cars.com Made in America index three years ago. [This end product] (ph) of the all the work which team has been doing all the years and to the extent that today, if you look at our vehicle lineup in US, we're about approximately on a weighted average basis 85% USMCA compliant. So, like Elon said, this definitely gives us a bigger edge as compared to our other OEMs in terms of managing the tariffs, but we're not immune because when the Section 232 auto tests become effective in May, which includes Canada and Mexico, and Canada and Mexico has been part of our regionalization study. They will have an impact on profitability. And I know research modeling on this impact has been up about a couple of thousand units which is pretty much in line with what we've been forecasting.

其他收入环比大幅减少。主要原因是第一季度的比特币按市值计价亏损，而第四季度为收益，导致了 4.72 亿美元的下降。其余变动是由于外汇（FX）影响。随着比特币采用新的按市值计价标准，我们预计除了外汇波动外，其他收入的波动性也会增加。我知道关税是人们谈论的热门话题，它对我们的业务有各种影响。正如 Elon 提到的，在汽车业务方面，我们多年来一直致力于区域化。具体来说，在美国，三年前 Model Y 就被 Cars.com 的美国制造指数评为最具美国特色的车型。这是团队多年来所有工作的最终成果，以至于今天，如果你看我们在美国的车辆阵容，按加权平均计算，我们大约有 85% 符合 USMCA（美墨加协定）的要求。所以，正如 Elon 所说，这在应对关税方面确实给了我们比其他 OEM（原始设备制造商）更大的优势，但我们并非不受影响，因为当包含加拿大和墨西哥的《232 条款》汽车关税于五月生效时——加拿大和墨西哥一直是我们区域化研究的一部分。它们将对盈利能力产生影响。我知道关于这种影响的研究模型显示（成本）上升了大约几千美元/单位，这与我们一直以来的预测基本一致。

The impact of tariffs on the energy business will be outsized since we source LFP battery cells from China. We're in the process of commissioning equipment for the local manufacturing of LFP battery cells in the US. However, the equipment which we have can only service a fraction of our total installed capacity of late. We've also been working on securing additional supply chain from non-China based suppliers, but it will take time. Also note that, in spite of all the impact on US from energy -- from tariffs on the energy business, we do have a Megafactory China which just started operations in Q1, and that should take care of our business outside of the US.

关税对能源业务的影响将更大，因为我们从中国采购 LFP（磷酸铁锂）电池。我们正在美国调试用于本地生产 LFP 电池的设备。然而，我们现有的设备只能满足我们近期总装机容量的一小部分。我们也在努力从非中国供应商那里获得额外的供应链，但这需要时间。另请注意，尽管关税对美国能源业务产生了所有这些影响，但我们在中国确实有一个超级工厂（Megafactory），已于第一季度开始运营，这应该能满足我们在美国以外的业务需求。

There's also an important impact of tariffs on our capital investments. I know this is going to sound counterintuitive since in order to launch manufacturing or expand lines, we have to bring equipment from outside the US because there is not that much capacity in the US. And the current trade environment, such equipment being brought in is subjective.

关税对我们的资本投资也有重要影响。我知道这听起来可能违反直觉，因为为了启动制造或扩大生产线，我们必须从美国以外引进设备，因为美国国内没有那么多产能。而在当前的贸易环境下，此类设备的引进受到限制/审查。

Elon Musk

The expense is bringing in from China right now.

现在的费用是从中国引进（设备）的。

Vaibhav Taneja

Exactly. And the reality is that China has the basic one, which has the most capacity to provide [indiscernible]. Our CapEx guidance inclusive of [tariffs] (ph), even with the optimization we have tried to do, it is forecasted to be still in excess of 10 billion this year. We're still evaluating what more to do on this one.

没错。现实情况是，中国拥有基础的（产能），也是最有能力提供 [听不清] 的。我们的资本支出（CapEx）指引，即使包含了我们试图进行的优化，并且考虑了 [关税]（发音），预计今年仍将超过 100 亿美元。我们仍在评估在这方面还能做些什么。

To summarize, we have near-term challenges in our business due to tariffs and brand image. We think our strategy of providing the best product at a competitive price is going to be a winner, and this is the reason we're still focused on bringing cheaper models to market soon. The start of production is still planned for June. Additionally, the advancement in FSD related features, including pilot robotaxi launch in Austin later this year, should help create a new era of demand. I would like to thank everyone at Tesla and our customers.

总结来说，由于关税和品牌形象问题，我们的业务面临短期挑战。我们认为，以有竞争力的价格提供最佳产品的策略将会胜出，这也是我们仍然专注于尽快将更便宜的车型推向市场的原因。生产启动仍计划在六月进行。此外，FSD 相关功能的进步，包括今年晚些时候在奥斯汀试点推出 Robotaxi，应有助于开创一个新的需求时代。我要感谢特斯拉的每一位员工和我们的客户。

Travis Axelrod

Fantastic. Thank you very much, Vaibhav.

太棒了。非常感谢，Vaibhav。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

A - Travis Axelrod

Now, we will move on to investor questions. We will start with questions from say.com. First question is, what are the highest risk items on the critical path to robotaxi launch and scaling?

现在，我们进入投资者提问环节。我们将从 say.com 上的问题开始。第一个问题是，在 Robotaxi（机器人出租车）启动和规模化的关键路径上，风险最高的项目是什么？

Ashok Elluswamy

It is Ashok.

我是 Ashok。

Travis Axelrod

Yeah, we've got Ashok on line.

是的，我们请 Ashok 上线了。

Elon Musk

Sure. Well, just to talk about the -- disambiguate Cybercab from robotaxi once again. So, the -- when will -- the Tesla's because the Tesla's that will be fully autonomous in June in Austin are probably Model Ys. So, that is currently on track to be able to do paid rides fully autonomously in Austin in June and then to be in many other cities in the US by the end of this year. It's very difficult to predict the exact ramp sort of week by week and month by month except that it will ramp up very quickly. So, it's going to be like some basically an S curve where it's very difficult to predict the intermediate slope of the S curve, but you kind of know where the S curve is going to end up, which is the vast majority of the Tesla fleet being autonomous. So, that's why I feel confident in predicting large scale autonomy around the middle of next year, but yeah. Certainly the second half of next year, meaning, I predict that there will be millions of Tesla's operating autonomously, fully autonomously in the second half of next year. Yeah. It does seem increasingly likely that there will be a localized parameter set, especially for places that have, say, very snowy weather, like, say, if you're in the northeast or something. Like this, you can think of it, it's kind of like a human. Like, if you, you can be a very good driver in California, but are you going to be also a good driver in a blizzard in Manhattan? You're not going to be as good. So there is actually some value in, you still drive, but you're probably, of an accident is higher. So it's increasingly obvious that there's some value to having a localized set of parameters for different regions and localities. But this is -- I’ll put that in the nice-to-have category, not -- it's not the required category. Again, it's -- really the car is, it's just very much like the human. It's digital neural nets and cameras and humans operate with biological neural nets and eyes. And so the same strengths and weaknesses will be present. Or, a digital neural net and cameras versus a biological neural net and eyes. Ashok, if you'd like to elaborate on that.

当然。嗯，再次澄清一下 Cybercab 和 Robotaxi 的区别。所以，这个——什么时候——特斯拉的车辆，因为六月份在奥斯汀实现完全自动驾驶的特斯拉可能将是 Model Y。所以，目前正按计划进行，以便能够在六月份在奥斯汀提供完全自动驾驶的付费出行服务，然后在今年年底前进入美国的许多其他城市。很难准确预测每周、每月的具体增长速度，但它会增长得非常快。所以，这基本上会像一条 S 曲线，很难预测 S 曲线中间的斜率，但你大致知道 S 曲线最终会达到哪里，那就是绝大多数特斯拉车队实现自动驾驶。这就是为什么我有信心预测明年年中左右实现大规模自动驾驶，但是，是的。当然是明年下半年，我的意思是，我预测明年下半年将有数百万辆特斯拉实现自动驾驶，完全自动驾驶。是的。越来越有可能需要一套本地化的参数集，特别是对于那些天气非常恶劣的地方，比如，假设你在东北部或其他地方遇到大雪。这就像人类一样。比如，你可能在加利福尼亚是一个非常好的司机，但你能在曼哈顿的暴风雪中也同样出色吗？你不会那么出色。所以，实际上，你仍然可以驾驶，但发生事故的概率可能会更高。因此，越来越明显的是，为不同地区和地点设置一套本地化的参数是有价值的。但这——我会把它归入“锦上添花”的类别，而不是——不是必需的类别。再次强调，这——汽车真的非常像人类。它是数字神经网络和摄像头，而人类是用生物神经网络和眼睛来运作的。所以，同样的优点和缺点都会存在。或者说，是数字神经网络和摄像头对比生物神经网络和眼睛。Ashok，如果你想详细说明一下。

Ashok Elluswamy

Yeah, speaking to the location specific models, we still have a generalized approach and you can see that from deployment of FSD Supervised in China, with this very minimal data that's China specific, the models generalize quite well to completely different driving styles. That just shows that the AI-based solution that we have is the right one because if you have gone down the previous rule-based solutions or like more hard-coded HD map-based solutions, it would have taken many, many years to get China to work. You can see those in the videos that people post online themselves. So, the generalized solution that we are pursuing is the right one that's going to scale well. And you can think of this location specific parameters that you don't need to ask a mixture of experts. And if you are sort of like familiar with the AI models, the Grok and others, they all use this mixture of experts to sort of like specialize the parameters to specific tasks while still being general. This makes the model use limited amount of compute to solve for the diversity of tasks that it has to solve. In terms of addressing the question that asked for, what are the critical things that need to get right, one thing I would like to note is validation. Self-driving is a long-tail problem where there can be a lot of edge cases that only happen very, very rarely. Currently, we are driving around in Austin using our QA fleet, but then it's super rare to get interventions that are critical for robotaxi operation. And so you can go many days without getting any single intervention. So you can't easily know whether you are improving or regressing in your capacity. And we need to build out sophisticated simulations, including neural network based video generation. That's all happening in the background to make sure that we deliver a safe product and we are able to measure our safety even though we can't just exceed when we're driving around the block or something like that.

是的，谈到特定地点的模型，我们仍然采用一种通用的方法，你可以从 FSD（监督版）在中国的部署中看到这一点，尽管只有非常少的中国特定数据，但模型能够很好地泛化到完全不同的驾驶风格。这恰恰表明我们基于人工智能的解决方案是正确的，因为如果你采用了以前基于规则的解决方案，或者像更硬编码的基于高清地图的解决方案，那么让它在中国工作可能需要很多很多年。你可以从人们自己在线发布的视频中看到这些。所以，我们追求的通用解决方案是正确的，并且能够很好地扩展。你可以把这些特定地点的参数想象成你不需要去问一个混合专家（mixture of experts）模型。如果你熟悉像 Grok 等人工智能模型，它们都使用这种混合专家的方法来将参数专门化用于特定任务，同时保持通用性。这使得模型能够使用有限的计算资源来解决它必须处理的多样化任务。关于回答那个问题，即需要正确处理的关键事项是什么，我想指出的一点是验证。自动驾驶是一个长尾问题，可能存在很多只在极少数情况下发生的边缘案例。目前，我们正在使用我们的 QA（质量保证）车队在奥斯汀进行驾驶测试，但是对于 Robotaxi 运营至关重要的干预（intervention）却非常罕见。因此，你可能很多天都遇不到一次干预。所以你很难轻易知道你的能力是在提高还是在退步。我们需要建立复杂的模拟系统，包括基于神经网络的视频生成。这一切都在后台进行，以确保我们交付安全的产品，并且即使我们不能仅仅通过在街区附近开车来超越（人类驾驶员），我们也能衡量我们的安全性。

Elon Musk

Yeah, I mean, very basic terms. If that -- if we're seeing an accident every 10,000 miles, well, then you have to drive 10,000 miles of average before you get an accident or an intervention. So, it's like, okay, I mean, we must be really, you don’t have to be very worked out by the sheer number of Teslas doing [indiscernible] in Austin right now. We're like, it's going to look pretty bizarre.

是的，我的意思是，用非常基本的术语来说。如果——如果我们看到每行驶 10,000 英里发生一次事故，那么，你平均需要行驶 10,000 英里才会遇到一次事故或干预。所以，这就像，好吧，我的意思是，我们必须真的，你不需要被现在奥斯汀进行 [听不清] 的大量特斯拉所困扰。我们觉得，这看起来会很奇怪。

Ashok Elluswamy

Some people are chasing us away.

有些人正在把我们赶走。

Elon Musk

Yeah, there's just always a convoy of Teslas going. Well, just going all over to Austin in circles. But yeah, I just can't emphasize this enough, in order to get -- figure out long tail things, it was one in 10,000, that says one in 20,000 miles, well one in 30,000. The average person drives 10,000 miles in a year. So, now try to compress that test cycle into a matter of a few months. That means you need a lot of cars doing a lot of driving in order to compress that or to do in a matter of a month what would normally take someone a year.

是的，总是有特斯拉车队在行驶。嗯，就是在奥斯汀到处兜圈子。但是，是的，我怎么强调都不过分，为了找出——弄清楚长尾问题，如果它是万分之一，或者说两万英里分之一，嗯，三万英里分之一。普通人一年行驶 10,000 英里。所以，现在试着把这个测试周期压缩到几个月内。这意味着你需要大量的汽车进行大量的驾驶，才能压缩这个周期，或者在一个月内完成通常需要一个人一年才能完成的事情。

Ashok Elluswamy

Yeah, and I would just also add that if you haven't looked at those videos coming out of China, people are really…

是的，我还要补充一点，如果你还没看过那些来自中国的视频，人们真的……

Elon Musk

Yeah, those videos are amazing.

是的，那些视频太棒了。

Ashok Elluswamy

Yeah, they're putting it to real test. I mean, they're dark roads.

是的，他们正在进行真正的测试。我的意思是，那些是黑暗的道路。

Elon Musk

Frankly, I think the Chinese consumer might be the most [American] (ph) consumer and, I actually, our customers in China are awesome. They have a lot of fun with the cars. I saw one guy take a Tesla on -- autonomous on a narrow road across like a mountain. And I'm like, very brave person. And the Tesla's driving along on a road with no barriers where he makes a mistake, he's going to plunge to his doom. But it worked.

坦率地说，我认为中国消费者可能是最 [美国化的？- 发音不清，可能是 demanding 或 discerning] 消费者，而且，实际上，我们在中国的客户非常棒。他们很会玩车。我看到一个人开着特斯拉——在自动驾驶模式下——行驶在一条狭窄的山路上。我想，这人真勇敢。特斯拉沿着一条没有护栏的路行驶，如果他犯了错误，就会坠入深渊。但它成功了。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you. And the question was on Cybercab itself, we're in B sample validation now.

好的。谢谢。关于 Cybercab 本身的问题，我们现在正处于 B 样件验证阶段。

Elon Musk

Yeah, we should ask that question too.

是的，我们也应该讨论这个问题。

Travis Axelrod

Yeah, we have our first big builds coming at the end of this quarter in Q2. And then in the coming months, we start to large scale installation of all the equipment in Giga Texas with still on schedule for production next year.

是的，我们的首批大规模生产将在本季度末，也就是第二季度进行。然后在接下来的几个月里，我们开始在德州超级工厂（Giga Texas）大规模安装所有设备，仍然按计划在明年投产。

Travis Axelrod

Yeah. And I just want to also to clarify because I think people don't understand the thing that there's no new building being built and where is Cybercab going to -- literally the same factory.

是的。我只是想澄清一下，因为我认为人们不明白，并没有建造新的厂房，Cybercab 将在哪里生产——实际上就在同一个工厂里。

Lars Moravy

It's happening and people don't know it’s just happening upstairs all the long lines while we're still building the Model Ys and Cybertrucks every day.

它正在发生，人们不知道的是，它就在楼上所有的长生产线上进行，而我们每天仍在生产 Model Y 和 Cybertruck。

Elon Musk

Yeah. So it's worth noting that the Tesla Gigafactory at Austin is three times the size of the Pentagon.

是的。值得注意的是，特斯拉奥斯汀超级工厂的面积是五角大楼的三倍。

Lars Moravy

Including the garden.

包括花园在内。

Elon Musk

Yeah, including the ground zero garden. And I’d go visit Pentagon like, this building used to look big, but then you won’t.

是的，包括那个“归零地”（ground zero）花园。我去参观五角大楼时会想，这座建筑以前看起来很大，但（和 Giga Texas 比起来）就不会了。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, when will FSD Unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?

好的。非常感谢。下一个问题是，FSD 无人监督版（Unsupervised）何时可供个人在私人拥有的汽车上使用？

Elon Musk

Before the end of this year. Not necessarily -- I say within the US, like we do want to test -- at Tesla, we're absolutely hardcore about safety. We go to great lengths to make the safest car in the world and have the lowest accidents per mile in. So -- and look, fewest lives lost. So we want to be very careful. So we want autonomy to be definitively safer than manual driving. So it's not enough that it just be as safe. It needs to be meaningfully safer than if it's cars mainly driven. And we want to confirm that there's not something -- we just want to be cautious with the rollout. We don't want to jump in at the deep end with an army. So with that said, I think we should -- people should -- we should be able to have it work in several cities later this year for personal use. So the acid test being you should be able to -- can you go to sleep in your car and wait until your destination? And I'm confident that it will be available in many cities in the US by the end of this year.

在今年年底之前。不一定——我是说在美国境内，因为我们确实想要测试——在特斯拉，我们对安全绝对是硬核（极其重视）。我们不遗余力地制造世界上最安全的汽车，并拥有最低的每英里事故率。所以——而且，看，最少的生命损失。所以我们想要非常小心。我们希望自动驾驶明确地比手动驾驶更安全。所以仅仅达到同等安全是不够的。它需要比主要由人驾驶的汽车有意义地更安全。我们想确认没有（潜在问题）——我们只是想在推广过程中保持谨慎。我们不想一开始就大规模全面铺开（jump in at the deep end with an army）。话虽如此，我认为我们应该——人们应该——我们应该能够在今年晚些时候在几个城市让它用于个人用途。所以，最终的考验（acid test）是，你应该能够——你能在车里睡觉一直等到目的地吗？我有信心它将在今年年底前在美国的许多城市可用。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, is Tesla still on track for releasing more affordable models this year? Or will you be focusing on simplifying versions to enhance affordability similar to the rear-wheel drive Cybertruck?

好的。非常感谢。下一个问题是，特斯拉今年是否仍在按计划发布更经济实惠的车型？或者你们会专注于简化版本以提高可负担性，类似于后轮驱动的 Cybertruck？

Lars Moravy

Yeah, we're still planning to release models this year. As with all launches, we're working through like the last-minute issues that pop up. We're not getting down one by one. At this point, I would say that ramp maybe -- might be a little slower than we had hoped initially, but there's nothing, just kind of given the turmoil that exists in the industry right now. But there's nothing blocking us from starting production within the next -- within the timeline laid out in the opening remarks. And I will say, it's important to emphasize that as we've said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and the design of it is really limited to what we can do in our existing lines rather than build new ones. But we've been targeting the low cost of ownership. Monthly payment is the biggest differentiator for our vehicles. And that's why we're focused on bringing these new models with the big, new lowest price to the market within the constraints of selling.

是的，我们仍计划在今年发布（新）车型。与所有（产品）发布一样，我们正在解决那些最后时刻突然出现的问题。我们没有被问题卡住（We're not getting down one by one - 意指进展顺利）。在这一点上，我想说产能爬坡可能——可能会比我们最初希望的要慢一些，但这没什么，考虑到目前行业存在的动荡。但是，没有什么能阻止我们在接下来的——在开场白中列出的时间表内开始生产。而且我要说，重要的是要强调，正如我们一直所说，充分利用我们的工厂是这些新产品的主要目标。因此，我们在外形尺寸和设计方面能做的灵活性，实际上受限于我们能在现有生产线上做什么，而不是建造新的生产线。但我们一直以低拥有成本为目标。月付款是我们车辆最大的差异化因素。这就是为什么我们专注于在销售限制内，将这些具有全新最低价格的新车型推向市场。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, does Tesla see robotaxi as a winner-take-most market? And as you approach the Austin launch, how do you expect to compare against Waymo's offering, especially regarding pricing, geofencing and regulatory flexibility?

好的。非常感谢。下一个问题是，特斯拉是否认为 Robotaxi 是一个赢家通吃的市场？随着你们接近在奥斯汀推出服务，你们预计与 Waymo 的产品相比如何，特别是在定价、地理围栏和监管灵活性方面？

Elon Musk

Well, okay. The issue with Waymo's cars is it costs way more money, but that is the issue. The car is very expensive, made in low volume. Teslas are probably cost 25% or 20% of what a Waymo costs and made in very high volume. So, ironically, like, we’re the ones to make the bet that a pure AI solution with cameras and what do you have? The car actually will listen for sirens and that kind of thing. It's the right move. And Waymo decided that an expensive sensor suite is the way to go, even though Google is very good at AI. So I'm wondering. And it is worth noting that Tesla has both an incredible AI software team and AI hardware chip design team, prospect [indiscernible]. So yeah, it's really -- I mean, I don't see anyone being able to compete with Tesla at present. I'm sure that'll change eventually, but at least as far as I'm aware, because we will have, I don't know, 99% market share or something ridiculous. That 90-something-percent, at least, I don't know, some of them might change, but if we have millions of cars deployed next year unless others have millions of cars deployed, like, we'll have -- unless we're blocked by regulatory situations, it won't be long. I mean, in a few years, we'll have 10 million autonomous cars on the roads and counting.

嗯，好的。Waymo 汽车的问题在于它成本高得多，这就是问题所在。这种车非常昂贵，产量很低。特斯拉的成本可能只有 Waymo 的 20% 或 25%，而且产量非常高。所以，具有讽刺意味的是，我们是那个押注纯粹基于摄像头的人工智能解决方案（还有什么？汽车实际上会听警报声之类的）是正确方向的人。而 Waymo 决定采用昂贵的传感器套件才是出路，尽管谷歌在人工智能方面非常出色。所以我在想。值得注意的是，特斯拉同时拥有令人难以置信的人工智能软件团队和人工智能硬件芯片设计团队，前景 [听不清]。所以，是的，这真的——我的意思是，目前我看不到有谁能与特斯拉竞争。我相信这种情况最终会改变，但至少据我所知，因为我们将拥有，我不知道，99% 的市场份额或者某个荒谬的数字。至少是百分之九十多，我不知道，其中一些可能会改变，但如果我们明年部署数百万辆汽车，除非其他人也部署数百万辆汽车，那么我们将——除非我们受到监管情况的阻碍，否则不会太久。我的意思是，几年后，我们将有 1000 万辆自动驾驶汽车在路上行驶，而且还在不断增加。

Ashok Elluswamy

The other thing which people forget is like we're not just developing the software solution, we are also manufacturing the cars. And like, Waymo has, they're taking cars and then trying to put...

另一件人们忘记的事情是，我们不仅仅是在开发软件解决方案，我们也在制造汽车。而像 Waymo，他们是拿现成的汽车，然后试图把...

Elon Musk

Waymo in it.

Waymo（的技术）装进去。

Ashok Elluswamy

We don't do that, so that definitely gives us a big leg-up. And like Elon said, we only have a big existing fleet which hopefully, with a software update could become autonomous.

我们不这样做，所以这绝对给了我们很大的优势。而且就像埃隆说的，我们拥有庞大的现有车队，希望通过软件更新就能实现自动驾驶。

Elon Musk

With software update, it will become autonomous. To be clear, the Model Y that we are talking about in being autonomous in Austin in June are the Model Ys we make currently, there's no change to it.

通过软件更新，它将实现自动驾驶。需要明确的是，我们谈论的 6 月份在奥斯汀实现自动驾驶的 Model Y，就是我们目前生产的 Model Y，没有任何改动。

Ashok Elluswamy

I think people don't appreciate that the car they can buy today...

我认为人们没有意识到他们今天能买到的车...

Elon Musk

The car that they have.

他们拥有的车。

Ashok Elluswamy

Are the car they have is capable of these kind of things.

他们拥有的车就有能力做这些事情。

Vaibhav Taneja

In fact, it does drive autonomously from the factory to the end of line, every car nowadays.

事实上，现在每辆车都可以在工厂内从生产线末端自动驾驶到指定位置。

Lars Moravy

That runs through the tunnel, the Model Y is everything.

它会穿过隧道，Model Y 都能做到。

Elon Musk

Right. Yes, exactly. We have -- it has been pointed to use -- it's doing useful work fully autonomously at the factories as Ashok was mentioning. The car is driving itself from end of line to where it was supposed to be picked up by a truck to be taken to a customer. And I'm confident also that later this year, the first Model Y will drive itself all the way to the customer. So, from our -- probably from our factory in Austin and one in here in Fremont, California, I'm confident that from both factories, we'll be able to drive directly to a customer on the factory.

对。是的，完全正确。我们已经——它已经被用来——正如 Ashok 提到的，它正在工厂里完全自主地做有用的工作。汽车从生产线末端自动驾驶到它应该被卡车接走运送给客户的地方。而且我也很有信心，在今年晚些时候，第一辆 Model Y 将能够一路自动驾驶到客户手中。所以，从我们的——可能从我们奥斯汀的工厂和加州弗里蒙特的工厂，我有信心，从这两个工厂出发，我们将能够（让汽车）直接从工厂自动驾驶到客户那里。

Lars Moravy

Cool delivery.

很酷的交付方式。

Elon Musk

Yeah, literally goes from the end of line and drive themselves to your house.

是的，（汽车）真的可以从生产线末端自动驾驶到你家。

Lars Moravy

It's important to note in the factories, we don't have dedicated lengths or anything. People are coming out every day, trucks delivering supplies, parts, construction.

需要注意的是，在工厂里，我们没有设置专门的（自动驾驶）通道或任何东西。每天都有人进出，卡车运送物资、零件，还有施工。

Elon Musk

And people can film it. By the way, you can see this from the road. Like, it’s not covered. And there’s many people take videos online. And anyone who wants to see it and just drive past our Fremont factory and see the autonomous cars driving themselves. And they drive themselves and they put themselves in the exact right spot to be picked up.

而且人们可以拍摄它。顺便说一句，你可以从路上看到这个。它没有被遮挡。网上有很多人拍视频。任何想看的人，只要开车经过我们的弗里蒙特工厂，就能看到自动驾驶的汽车在自己行驶。它们自己开，并且把自己停在准确的位置等待被提走。

Lars Moravy

Yeah, the logistics yard is right there in the open. We don't move it again to another lane.

是的，物流场地就在露天的地方。我们不会再把它移到另一个车道。

Elon Musk

They go to a specific spot, parking spot. Yeah. So that's just a routine like everyday thing now.

它们会去一个特定的地点，停车位。是的。所以这现在就像是每天的例行公事。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, can you please provide an update on the unboxed method and how that has progressed?

好的。非常感谢。下一个问题是，您能提供一下关于“开箱式”（unboxed）生产方法的最新进展吗？它进展如何？

Lars Moravy

Sure. It's progressing, absolutely. As I mentioned just a minute ago, like it is the basis for our Cybercab manufacturing process. It's really what we changed in order to allow the low cost of production and also get the super high levels of automation. Really, levels of automation that are sort of unheard of in the vehicle manufacturing scale. This is like not something that when you see it be produced, you'll think of in terms of, like, wow, this car has been built for 100 years. It's really something we’ve changed. In the past year, we've been like focusing on a lot of key development areas like, marrying these large subassemblies together in a precise way, in an accurate way. We've also derisked things like corrosion of uncoated aluminum structures, the ceiling across the seams of the vehicle and when you marry several components. And we've even done early crash testing and improvement that like it's going to be just as safe as the other car we build. So like we're -- as with all that combined, we kind of go into the builds that we have in this quarter for the Cybercab product, and that's the next real big test of full-scale integration with the unboxed process. And that's kind of where we are. So you'll see them on the test roads in a couple of months.

当然。它绝对在进展中。正如我刚才提到的，它是我们 Cybercab 制造流程的基础。这正是我们为了实现低生产成本并获得超高自动化水平而做出的改变。确实，这种自动化水平在汽车制造领域是前所未闻的。这就像，当你看到它被生产出来时，你不会觉得，哇，这种车已经造了 100 年了。这真的是我们改变的东西。在过去的一年里，我们一直专注于许多关键的开发领域，比如，以精确、准确的方式将这些大型子组件结合在一起。我们还降低了一些风险，比如未涂层铝结构的腐蚀问题、车辆接缝处的密封问题（当组合多个部件时）。我们甚至进行了早期的碰撞测试和改进，它将和我们制造的其他汽车一样安全。所以，综合所有这些，我们进入了本季度 Cybercab 产品的生产阶段，这是对“开箱式”流程进行全面整合的下一个真正的大考验。这就是我们目前的进展。所以，几个月后你就会在测试道路上看到它们。

Elon Musk

Yeah. Although the line won't be at this rate…

是的。不过生产线不会达到这个速度……

Lars Moravy

Initially.

初期。

Elon Musk

Initially, this is a revolutionary production system. I’m not sure what the right word is. Unboxing sounds like something when you get your phone.

初期（不会）。这是一个革命性的生产系统。我不确定用哪个词合适。“开箱”（Unboxing）听起来像是你拿到手机时的感觉。

Lars Moravy

And you open it up.

然后你打开它。

Elon Musk

You have like a pleasant experience when you take your phone out of the box, which of course is nice, but this is more revolutionary than that. This is a profound reimagining of how to make cars in the first place. No car is made like this anywhere in the world. The factory is the product as much as the car is the product. So, this really is the first principles approach to manufacturing that will ultimately allow us, I think, to -- I’m trying to think, I'm confident, ultimately allow us to achieve a cycle time, meaning a unit every five seconds or less, off a single line.

当你把手机从盒子里拿出来时，你会有一种愉快的体验，这当然很好，但这比那更具革命性。这是对如何制造汽车的深刻重新构想。世界上没有任何汽车是这样制造的。工厂本身和汽车一样都是产品。所以，这确实是制造的第一性原理方法，我认为，最终将使我们——我在想，我有信心，最终将使我们能够实现一个生产节拍，意味着在一条生产线上，每五秒或更短时间生产一辆车。

Ashok Elluswamy

And we want to incorporate some of these for testing into our existing production lines as well with the Cybertruck already.

而且我们希望将其中一些用于测试的部分也融入到我们现有的生产线中，比如已经在 Cybertruck 上应用了。

Elon Musk

I mean, this is something I've been thinking about for a long time and sort of thinking about this a long time, and it's kind of -- it's not a crazy thing. Like a car every five seconds may sound like it's coming out like bullets, but actually it's coming out at walking speed.

我的意思是，这是我思考了很长时间的事情，思考了很久，这有点——这并不是一件疯狂的事情。比如每五秒钟生产一辆车听起来可能像是子弹一样射出来，但实际上它的移动速度和步行速度差不多。

Ashok Elluswamy

It's a meter a second.

每秒一米。

Elon Musk

A meter a second. So this is like we're still far away from caring about the ergonomic drag of the manufacturing line because you're still at 3 miles an hour. Every five second sounds crazy but it's 3 miles an hour that we're talking about. So yeah, you can run away from it basically. But that's still, by far, and fastest line on Earth, and it's like half hour make, [indiscernible]

每秒一米。所以这就像我们离考虑生产线的空气动力学阻力还很远，因为你仍然只在每小时 3 英里的速度。每五秒听起来很疯狂，但我们说的是每小时 3 英里。所以，是的，你基本上可以跑赢它。但这仍然是迄今为止地球上最快的生产线，而且它就像半小时制造，[听不清]

Lars Moravy

Shanghai phase 2. 33 seconds.

上海二期。33 秒。

Elon Musk

We're the fastest, right?

我们是最快的，对吧？

Lars Moravy

I would think so.

我想是的。

Elon Musk

We think we're the fastest at 33 seconds in our Shanghai factory, but this would be six times faster or seven times faster, thereabouts. I mean, it'll be slower than that but the point is that like when you fully optimize the design and you’ve got operation of the next-generation factory that we're building right now, the 5-second cycle time or less is, the design is capable of it. So if you -- when you go through like new architecture, you go from like being like in any -- I mean, probably China in particular is an A+ on a moderately, an advanced but still traditional car production system. So they're really in about as good as possible to do within in a conventional scenario. So trying to get much below, sort of below like 30 seconds, extremely difficult. But, and you start getting into sort of impossible where you just -- you have to be faster than a human could possibly move. So then the autonomous line, it really just needs to be robust moving really fast, and that's where you get to sub-5 seconds. But we'll start off with getting a C and a new architecture, but then the potential is there over time to move them up to an A+, within an A+ architecture.

我们认为我们在上海工厂以 33 秒的速度是最快的，但这（新系统）将快六倍或七倍左右。我的意思是，（初期）会比那慢，但关键是，当你完全优化设计并且我们正在建造的下一代工厂投入运营时，5 秒或更短的生产节拍，设计上是能够实现的。所以，如果你——当你采用新的架构时，你会从——我的意思是，可能尤其是在中国，在一个中等先进但仍然传统的汽车生产系统上，他们是 A+ 水平。所以他们在传统场景下真的做得尽可能好了。所以想要远低于，比如低于 30 秒，极其困难。而且，你会开始进入某种不可能的境地，你必须比人类可能移动的速度更快。所以，自动化生产线，它真的只需要稳健地快速移动，这就是你达到 5 秒以下的方式。但我们会从新架构的 C 级开始，但随着时间的推移，有潜力将它们提升到 A+，在一个 A+ 架构内。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, how is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks and form of tariffs, political biases, et cetera?

好的。非常感谢。下一个问题是，特斯拉如何定位自己以灵活适应全球经济风险，例如关税、政治偏见等等？

Roshan Thomas

As Elon said, we've been as a supply chain team at it for a while. We continue to mitigate global economic risks like tariffs and political biases by regionalizing part supply factories in North America, Berlin and Shanghai. For example, in North America, our high-volume vehicle programs have over 85% North America content and Shanghai vehicles have over 95% local content. Berlin has similar levels of regionalization as North American when you exclude the battery, and we are working on regionalizing the battery as well. This is a pre-pandemic strategy that we accelerated post pandemic through supply diversification, dual-sourcing, vertical integration, advanced analytics, and local partnerships to ensure supply chain resilience and production stability. Having said that, we are not 100% insulated and these tariffs rates are higher on our low volume platforms than the high-volume ones.

正如埃隆所说，我们供应链团队已经为此努力了一段时间。我们通过在北美、柏林和上海实现零部件供应工厂的区域化，持续减轻关税和政治偏见等全球经济风险。例如，在北美，我们高产量汽车项目的北美本土化率超过 85%，上海工厂车辆的本土化率超过 95%。柏林工厂在不包括电池的情况下，区域化水平与北美相似，我们也在努力实现电池的区域化。这是我们在疫情前就制定的战略，并在疫情后通过供应多元化、双重采购、垂直整合、先进分析和本地合作加速推进，以确保供应链的韧性和生产的稳定性。话虽如此，我们并非 100% 不受影响，而且这些关税税率在我们低产量平台上的影响要高于高产量平台。

Elon Musk

Yeah. There's no more vertically integrated car company than Tesla. I mean, we're taking -- we're most vertically integrated car company since Henry Ford back in the day when they're doing mining iron and stuff and growing rubber trees. Like we're not growing rubber trees and mining iron yet. But we are -- we have both a lithium refinery in South Texas. And it's -- I mean, the biggest lithium refinery outside of China, I think. Is that right?

是的。没有比特斯拉更垂直整合的汽车公司了。我的意思是，我们是——我们是自亨利·福特时代以来最垂直整合的汽车公司，那时他们还开采铁矿、种植橡胶树什么的。我们还没有种植橡胶树和开采铁矿。但是我们——我们在南德克萨斯州建了一个锂精炼厂。而且它——我认为是中国以外最大的锂精炼厂。是这样吗？

Unidentified Company Representative

Yeah. I think so.

是的。我想是的。

Elon Musk

But it has -- its upward potential would be the biggest lithium refinery outside -- and we've got to expand and build more, right. And then we've got the cathode refinery in Austin next to Gigafactory. We've got to figure out what to do about the anode. This is an ongoing subject of discussion. The best of all possible would be figuring how to have no anode. Best part being no part. That's the dream of the lithium batteries to be not having anode. But either way, we better have the anode, the cathode and the lithium and the electrolytes, separator to make a cell. But there's no other car company that has both lithium refineries and cathode refineries. We're ridiculously vertically integrated, and thus are best positioned to protect against supply chain disruptions. You want to talk that progress?

但它有——它的未来潜力将是（中国）以外最大的锂精炼厂——而且我们还得扩张和建造更多，对吧。然后我们在奥斯汀的 Gigafactory 旁边建了正极材料精炼厂。我们得弄清楚负极材料该怎么办。这是一个持续讨论的话题。最好的可能性是想办法去掉负极。最好的部件就是没有部件。这是锂电池的梦想，没有负极。但无论如何，我们最好要有负极、正极、锂、电解质和隔膜来制造电芯。但是没有其他汽车公司同时拥有锂精炼厂和正极材料精炼厂。我们极度垂直整合，因此最有能力抵御供应链中断。你想谈谈这方面的进展吗？

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

Yeah. Certainly, for our in-house cells, we've multi-sourced every component. We have every path coming from at least two different countries of origin, which is we started this -- the supply chain team and the engineering team worked together on this for the last couple of years to put that together. It's not something we did in a couple of months. This is years of work. So we're in a good position to take advantage of that and the in-sourcing of lithium and cathode, the two most critical parts that actually does run that backyard and we're totally insulated from.

是的。当然，对于我们自产的电芯，我们对每个组件都进行了多源采购。我们确保每条供应路径都至少来自两个不同的原产国，这是我们启动的——供应链团队和工程团队在过去几年里共同努力才实现的。这不是我们在几个月内完成的事情。这是多年的工作。所以我们处于有利位置，可以利用这一点以及锂和正极材料的内部供应，这两个最关键的部分实际上掌控着关键领域，我们完全不受（外部）影响。

Elon Musk

I think it need to be an operation.

我认为它需要投入运营。

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

I think it need to be an operation.

我认为它需要投入运营。

Elon Musk

We also make our own cells by the way. Cell production, if you took this -- you make the anode, the cathode, the lithium, the electrolyte separator, can and then you got to put all that together in the cell factory and there are entire companies that only do is produce cells but they don't do the other stuff, refine lithium or the cathode or. So, our cell production is going quite well. And I think we're, we’re a company sort of the lowest cost per kilowatt hour.

顺便说一句，我们也自己生产电芯。电芯生产，如果你这样做——你制造负极、正极、锂、电解质、隔膜、外壳，然后你得在电芯工厂把所有这些组装起来，有些公司只生产电芯，但不做其他事情，比如精炼锂或正极材料。所以，我们的电芯生产进展相当顺利。而且我认为，我们是每千瓦时成本最低的公司。

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

All cells we purchase in North America.

（对比）我们在北美采购的所有电芯。

Elon Musk

Yeah. So we have the lowest cost per kilowatt hour, all things considered. So the Tesla cell is the most competitive cell. Yeah, for a kilowatt hour bringing to a car, it's a Tesla cell, it's lower cost than a supplier cell.

是的。所以综合来看，我们的每千瓦时成本是最低的。所以特斯拉电芯是最具竞争力的电芯。是的，对于应用到汽车上的每千瓦时来说，特斯拉电芯的成本低于供应商的电芯。

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

Yes. And the plan this year is to really build off that base. Getting to lowest cost is, it's the hardest challenge for so many entry. It's relatively easy to build a flashy product that does one thing well. To build something at high volume, low cost is super difficult, and we're kind of using that space to let go off and add performance in different areas for new products coming out.

是的。今年的计划是在这个基础上真正发展。实现最低成本，这对许多新进入者来说是最难的挑战。制造一个在某方面表现出色的花哨产品相对容易。但要以低成本大规模生产某种东西则极其困难，我们正利用这个（成本）优势来腾出空间，并在新产品的不同领域提升性能。

Lars Moravy

Yeah. I mean, to Elon's point, there's a lot of advantages for regionalization. The most important thing is we're maximizing the working capital for six to eight weeks on the ocean. If there's a design change, then everything that's in transit basically has to be scrapped. Secondly, port disruptions, as we saw during COVID, can be very expensive because slide disconnects can shut down production. So then your only option is costly expedite. It also gives us resilience in supply chain. If one region is down, we can bridge with others. It's more to set up in the beginning, but it's critical to have when the need arises. Having said that, it's unrealistic there's 100% regionalization across the board for specialized areas such as semiconductors. In such cases, our teams works very closely with our partners to ensure we have strategic banks in place and disruption doesn't impact production while we stand up the regional manufacturing for that particular commodity.

是的。我的意思是，关于埃隆提到的区域化，有很多优势。最重要的事情是，我们避免了营运资金在海上漂泊六到八周。如果设计发生变更，那么基本上所有在途的（旧设计）物料都必须报废。其次，港口中断，就像我们在新冠疫情期间看到的那样，可能会非常昂贵，因为供应中断会导致生产停顿。那么你唯一的选择就是昂贵的加急处理。区域化也为我们的供应链带来了韧性。如果一个地区出现问题，我们可以用其他地区的供应来弥补。虽然初期设置成本更高，但在需要时拥有这种能力至关重要。话虽如此，对于像半导体这样的专业领域，实现 100% 的全面区域化是不现实的。在这种情况下，我们的团队与合作伙伴紧密合作，确保我们有战略储备，并且在我们建立该特定商品的区域性制造能力期间，（供应）中断不会影响生产。

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

And I'll say like unless the vehicle, like Elon was talking about with cells, we’re also heavily integrated, important ingots, internal castings, we recycle those and melt some. There's the same thing with plastics, but it doesn't mean we're not exposed. We do have some areas where we use magnets and we've been working for years to find alternative sources and bring those up as well as we have machines. And as we've mentioned in the past, we're working on ferrite numbers for some time. So like, as Karn said, with our heavy regionalization percentages, we definitely like the lowest exposed to this, but we're not completely immune as Vaibhav mentioned.

而且我想说，就像埃隆谈到的电芯一样，我们在车辆的其他方面也高度整合，比如重要的铸锭、内部铸件，我们会回收并熔化一部分。塑料方面也是如此，但这并不意味着我们没有风险敞口。我们确实在某些领域使用磁铁，多年来我们一直致力于寻找替代来源并将其引入，就像我们的电机一样。正如我们过去提到的，我们研究铁氧体（磁铁替代方案）已有一段时间。所以，正如 Karn 所说，凭借我们很高的区域化比例，我们绝对是受此（风险）影响最小的，但正如 Vaibhav 提到的，我们并非完全免疫。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Similarly related on the battery side. Is Tesla still battery supply constrained as noted on the Q4 call and does that change with tariffs?

好的。同样在电池方面相关的问题。正如第四季度财报电话会议上提到的，特斯拉是否仍然受到电池供应的限制，关税是否会改变这种情况？

Karn Budhiraj

This is Karn. We've been working very hard to expand battery cell production in the US, both with vendors and what Bonnie mentioned earlier with the 4680 program. And we're also working on moving the upstream supply chain for battery cells to the United States for several years. And that strategy is really starting to pay off now. As it stands right now, we're not constrained on battery cell supply for vehicles. The recent tariffs do pose some challenges to Tesla Energy, well, like our CFO mentioned earlier, but it's something we've been anticipating and we should be able to resolve in a timely fashion. We actually have a kind of place right going towards it. We also have some other sources coming online to supplement the shortfall. And then of course, we have the production that's happening in-house. We have a slight disconnect of aligning the right cells with the right path. So that's the little bit of puzzle that we have to solve internally. But as far as cells go, there's no shortage.

我是 Karn。我们一直非常努力地在美国扩大电池电芯的生产，包括与供应商合作以及 Bonnie 之前提到的 4680 项目。几年来，我们也在努力将电池电芯的上游供应链转移到美国。这个策略现在真的开始显现成效了。就目前情况而言，我们在车辆的电池电芯供应方面不受限制。最近的关税确实给特斯拉能源业务带来了一些挑战，嗯，就像我们的首席财务官之前提到的那样，但这是我们一直预料到的事情，我们应该能够及时解决。我们实际上已经有了应对之策。我们也有一些其他的供应来源即将上线以弥补缺口。当然，我们还有内部正在进行的生产。我们在将合适的电芯匹配到合适的应用（或路径）上存在一点小问题。所以这是我们需要在内部解决的一点小难题。但就电芯本身而言，并不存在短缺。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all the rumors of brand damage?

好的。非常感谢。下一个问题是，与所有关于品牌受损的谣言有关，特斯拉在第一季度的订单流入率是否经历了任何有意义的变化？

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

In Q1, as I mentioned earlier, we took the best-selling car over the last two years and ramped up all four of our global factories. And in less than eight weeks, we've already gone to the rate of our previous Model Ys in the factories. So, just kudos again to the team for the great job there. And despite the economic strain and negative articles, in California in Q1, Tesla remained the best-selling car, not just EV. And additionally, we had a record number of test drives globally in Q1 as well. So, interest remains high. And so right now, we continue to see good interest still on vehicle.

在第一季度，正如我之前提到的，我们对过去两年最畅销的汽车在我们全球所有四个工厂进行了产能提升。并且在不到八周的时间里，我们工厂的生产速度已经达到了之前 Model Y 的水平。所以，再次向团队的出色工作表示敬意。尽管存在经济压力和负面报道，在第一季度的加利福尼亚州，特斯拉仍然是最畅销的汽车，而不仅仅是最畅销的电动汽车。此外，我们在第一季度全球范围内的试驾次数也创下了纪录。所以，（市场）兴趣依然很高。因此，目前我们仍然看到市场对车辆保持着良好的兴趣。

Elon Musk

Yeah. I mean, Tesla is immune to sort of the macro demand for cars. So when there is economic uncertainty, people generally want to pause on buying, doing a major capital purchase like a car. But as far as absent macro issues, we don't see any reduction in demand.

是的。我的意思是，特斯拉并非不受汽车宏观需求的影响。所以当经济存在不确定性时，人们通常会暂停购买，比如像汽车这样重大的资本支出。但是，在没有宏观问题的情况下，我们没有看到任何需求减少。

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

Correct. And that's what we're continuing to focus on affordability. And it's fun to focus there.

正确。这就是我们持续关注可负担性的原因。而且专注于此很有趣。

Travis Axelrod

Fantastic. Thank you guys. The next question is regarding the Tesla Optimus pilot line, could you confirm if it is currently operational? If so, what is the current production rate of Optimus bots per week? Additionally, how might the recent tariffs impact the scalability of this production line moving forward?

太棒了。谢谢各位。下一个问题是关于特斯拉 Optimus 试点生产线的，您能确认它目前是否在运行吗？如果是的话，目前 Optimus 机器人的周产量是多少？此外，最近的关税可能会如何影响该生产线未来的可扩展性？

Elon Musk

I want to emphasize Optimus is still very much a development program. It's not a large volume production. This year, we'll make a few -- we do expect to make thousands of Optimus robots, but most of that production is going to be at the end of the year. So the -- almost everything in Optimus is new. There's not like an existing supply chain for the motors, gearboxes, electronics, actuators, really anything in the Optimus apart from the AI for Tesla -- Tesla AI computer, which is the same as the one in the car. So when you have a new complex manufactured product, it will move as fast as the slowest and least lucky component in the entire thing. And as opposed to proximation, there's like 10,000 unique things. So, that's why anyone who tells you they can predict with precision the production ramp of the truly new product is -- doesn't know what they're talking about. It is totally impossible. So, you go through this like a series of constraints where I would think this part is a limiting factor, now that part is a limiting factor, and this part is a limiting factor and multiply that by 1,000 basically. And then the rate of the production is decided by how quickly you can solve each of those problems. Now, Optimus was affected by the magnet issue from China because the Optimus actuators in the arm do use permanent magnets. Now Tesla as a whole is not me to use permanent magnets. But when something is volume constrained, like an arm of the robot, then you want to try to make the motors as small as possible. And then so we did the design in permanent magnets for those motors, and those were affected by the supply chain, by basically China requiring an export license to send out anywhere with magnets. So, we’re working through that with China. Hopefully, we’ll get a license to use the rare earth magnets. China wants some assurances that these are not used for military purposes, which, obviously, they’re not. They’re just going into a humanoid robot. So that’s not a weapon system. But that that is certainly an example of a challenge there. But I’m confident we’ll overcome these issues, and we’ll, by the end of this year, have thousands of populous robots.

我想强调 Optimus 仍然是一个开发项目。它不是大规模生产。今年，我们会生产一些——我们确实预计会生产数千个 Optimus 机器人，但大部分生产将在年底进行。所以——Optimus 中几乎所有东西都是新的。除了特斯拉的 AI——特斯拉 AI 计算机（与车里的那个相同）之外，Optimus 的电机、齿轮箱、电子设备、执行器，几乎所有东西都没有现成的供应链。所以当你有一个新的复杂制造产品时，它的进展速度取决于整个环节中最慢、最不走运的那个部件。而且，粗略估计，大约有 10,000 个独特的部件。所以，这就是为什么任何告诉你他们能精确预测一个真正新产品的产能爬坡的人——他们根本不知道自己在说什么。这完全不可能。所以，你会经历一系列的限制因素，你会觉得这个部件是限制因素，然后那个部件是限制因素，再然后这个部件是限制因素，基本上把这个过程乘以 1000 次。然后生产速度取决于你解决这些问题的速度有多快。现在，Optimus 受到了来自中国的磁铁问题的影响，因为 Optimus 手臂中的执行器确实使用了永磁体。现在，特斯拉作为一个整体，并不倾向于使用永磁体。但是当某些东西受到体积限制时，比如机器人的手臂，那么你就想尽量把电机做得尽可能小。因此，我们为那些电机设计了永磁体方案，而这些受到了供应链的影响，基本上是中国要求出口任何带有磁铁的东西都需要出口许可证。所以，我们正在与中国方面沟通解决这个问题。希望我们能获得使用稀土磁铁的许可证。中国方面希望得到一些保证，确保这些（磁铁）不用于军事目的，显然它们不是。它们只是用在一个人形机器人上。所以那不是武器系统。但那确实是这方面挑战的一个例子。但我有信心我们将克服这些问题，到今年年底，我们将拥有数千个 Optimus 机器人。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much. And the last question, we already covered earlier, whether Robotaxi was still on track for this year. So, with that, we can move on to analyst questions. The first question is going to come from Pierre at New Street. Pierre, please unmute yourself.

好的。非常感谢。最后一个问题，我们之前已经讨论过了，关于 Robotaxi 今年是否仍在按计划进行。那么，接下来我们可以进入分析师提问环节。第一个问题来自 New Street 的 Pierre。Pierre，请取消静音。

Pierre Ferragu

Hey, guys. Can you hear me?

嘿，大家好。能听到我说话吗？

Elon Musk

Yeah.

是的。

Pierre Ferragu

That's great. I'm super excited to hear robotaxi and Optimus becoming the very tangible future for Tesla. But I have actually a question on the legacy, not legacy, in the current like auto business. And when I look back to the ramp of Model 3 a few years ago, I really saw it as being the iPhone of cars, a new product, completely reinvented, very different user experience, vastly superior, impossible to match for traditional competitors. And for the iPhone, which resulted in the high end of the smartphone market quadrupling in size and actually Apple taking 60% market share. And so when you look at the Model 3 and the Model Y today, I think they are still actually vastly superior to any other cars. And I wonder why they've taken about 15% of their addressable market and not more actually? So, another way to put it is, why are there so many people still buying BMWs and Mercedes, knowing that Model 3 and the Model Ys are out there and available? And I wonder if you're trying to solve that internally. If you understand why -- what are these auto buyers buying a Model 3 or Model Y missing? And if you have ideas of things you could do to address that, maybe there is enormous value left on the table there. Yeah, that's what I'm wondering these days.

太好了。听到 Robotaxi 和 Optimus 正在成为特斯拉非常切实的未来，我感到非常兴奋。但我实际上有一个关于现有汽车业务的问题，不是说它是“遗留”业务。当我回顾几年前 Model 3 的产能爬坡时，我真的把它看作是汽车界的 iPhone，一个全新的产品，被彻底重塑，拥有非常不同的用户体验，极其优越，传统竞争对手无法匹敌。对于 iPhone 来说，这导致了高端智能手机市场规模翻了两番（增长了四倍），并且苹果实际上占据了 60% 的市场份额。所以，当你审视今天的 Model 3 和 Model Y 时，我认为它们实际上仍然远超其他任何汽车。我想知道为什么它们只占据了其目标市场大约 15% 的份额，而不是更多呢？所以，换句话说，为什么在知道 Model 3 和 Model Y 已经上市并且可以购买的情况下，还有那么多人仍然购买宝马和梅赛德斯呢？我想知道你们内部是否在尝试解决这个问题。你们是否理解为什么——是什么阻止了这些汽车买家购买 Model 3 或 Model Y？以及你们是否有什么想法来解决这个问题，也许那里还有巨大的价值尚未发掘。是的，这就是我最近在思考的问题。

Elon Musk

Yeah. The reality is that, in the future, most people are not going to buy cars. So it’s kind of what, one could sort of say, look, if you think one to continue with your phone metaphor, I mean, you can remember the days of the flip phones when there was a hundred different flip phone designs. And I would, the mistake that lump manufacturers made was to try to make that many different variants of a flip bone, but which was a mistake. They should have made the iPhone. So, because obviously everyone’s going to want a smartphone. But in the beginning of when the iPhone came out, I was like, wow, I can’t believe these guys are not reacting as though this is death. But they didn’t, they kept making the variants of smartphones. Nokia, I think, at one point was the most valuable company in the world or close to it, but they kept making flip phones. Trying to find another market niche. Maybe somebody wants a phone of a different style, maybe this different color or whatever it is. Nope. They just want a super intelligent phone that can do everything. Just one. So I said this many years ago. But in the in the future, in the not too distant future, buying a gasoline car that is not autonomous will be like riding a horse while using a flip phone. Some people still do it, but it’s rare.

是的。现实情况是，在未来，大多数人将不会购买汽车。所以这有点像，可以说，看，如果你想继续用你的手机作比喻，我的意思是，你可以回想起翻盖手机的时代，那时有一百种不同的翻盖手机设计。我认为，那些（手机）制造商犯的错误是试图制造那么多不同型号的翻盖手机，但这是一个错误。他们本应该制造 iPhone。所以，因为很明显每个人都会想要一部智能手机。但在 iPhone 刚问世的时候，我就想，哇，我不敢相信这些人没有做出好像这是生死攸关的反应。但他们没有，他们继续制造各种型号的智能手机（注：此处或指功能手机/早期智能手机，与下文诺基亚例子对比理解）。诺基亚，我认为，一度是世界上最有价值的公司，或者接近这个水平，但他们却持续制造翻盖手机。试图寻找另一个细分市场。也许有人想要不同风格的手机，也许是这种不同的颜色或其他什么。不。他们只想要一部能做所有事情的超级智能手机。只需要一种。所以我很多年前就说过这个了。但在未来，在不远的将来，购买一辆非自动驾驶的汽油车，将会像是骑着马同时使用翻盖手机。有些人仍然这样做，但这很罕见。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you. The next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner at Wolfe. Emmanuel, please unmute yourself.

好的。谢谢。下一个问题来自 Wolfe 的 Emmanuel Rosner。Emmanuel，请取消静音。

Emmanuel Rosner

So, Elon, the public version of the FSD software still has a decent amount of, I guess, intermittent human interventions that are required. So, what’s still required for the software on your end to get to a level where it doesn’t need to be supervised? And I’m asking that in the context of, obviously, the June launch being in the next couple of months. What still needs to happen?

那么，埃隆，公开版本的 FSD 软件仍然需要相当数量的，我猜是，间歇性的人工干预。那么，在你们这边，软件还需要达到什么水平才能不再需要监督？我问这个问题，显然是考虑到未来几个月内（计划的）六月发布。还需要发生什么？

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

We’re working on a number of items too.

我们也在处理一些项目。

Elon Musk

Go ahead.

你说吧。

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

I mean, we are aware of the interventions that are happening in public bus, and that’s why we are hardcore burning it down. And really speaking, some initial launch city helped us focus on, like, solving all the issues that we face here. For example, like, we’re just focusing on Austin. We’re not, like, solving all the issues that customers in Boston or somewhere else might face. And then here, we just, like, have big list of all the issues, just burn it down, and that’s what the team is working on along with other sort of, like, redundancy issues. For example, if one of the computers goes down, right down the customer fleet, it would, like, throw the red hands and ask you to take over, but we don’t want that kind of situation. So you’re solving both, like, the reliability issues of the autonomy software and also the reliability issues of the system software, like, together for Austin.

我的意思是，我们知道在公开测试（注：原文 "public bus" 疑为 "public beta/use" 的口误）中发生的干预，这就是我们正在全力以赴减少它的原因。说实话，一些初期的启动城市帮助我们集中精力解决我们在这里遇到的所有问题。例如，我们正专注于奥斯汀。我们不是在解决波士顿或其他地方客户可能遇到的所有问题。然后在这里，我们就列出所有问题的一大串清单，然后逐一解决，这就是团队正在努力的方向，同时也在处理其他类似冗余性的问题。例如，如果其中一台计算机出现故障，在客户车队中，它会（在屏幕上）显示红色的手并要求你接管，但我们不希望出现这种情况。所以你们正在同时解决，比如，自动驾驶软件的可靠性问题以及系统软件的可靠性问题，一起针对奥斯汀（进行优化）。

Elon Musk

Yeah. It really just we just worked through a long tail of unusual interventions. So, and these are really very rare. Like, as a single intervention every 10,000 miles. I mean, that’s a lot of driving you got to do to even find one case within Athens.

是的。我们真的只是在处理一长串不寻常的干预情况。所以，这些情况真的非常罕见。比如，每行驶 10,000 英里才发生一次干预。我的意思是，你得开很长的路才能在奥斯汀（注：原文为Athens，应为Austin）找到一个（这样的）案例。

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

Yeah. And some interventions that have been due to systematic, like, missing functionality. For example, for handling emergency vehicles correctly, you don’t need to con consume audio as an input. But then the customer facing versions don’t have audio input, but the version that’s in -- that’s going to be in Austin will have audio input and so on.

是的。有些干预是由于系统性的，比如，缺少功能造成的。例如，为了正确处理紧急车辆，（我们发现）需要将音频作为输入。但是面向客户的版本没有音频输入，而即将在奥斯汀使用的版本将会有音频输入，等等。

Emmanuel Rosner

Okay. But would you have, like, remote operators, for example?

好的。但是你们会配备，比如说，远程操作员吗？

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

I mean, every now and then, if a car gets stuck or something, someone will, like, unblock it. But it’s just because we are a bit conservative and are tend towards more safety than even if we get stuck every now and then, we do have remote support. But it’s not going to be required for safe operation. If anything, it’s just required for more availability.

我的意思是，偶尔，如果车辆卡住或遇到什么情况，会有人来，嗯，解除阻塞。但这只是因为我们有点保守，并且倾向于更注重安全，所以即使偶尔卡住了，我们确实有远程支持。但这并非安全运行所必需的。如果说有什么作用的话，它只是为了提高可用性。

Elon Musk

Anyway, it’s only a couple months away, so you can just see for yourself in couple months in Austin.

无论如何，只有几个月了，所以几个月后你可以在奥斯汀亲眼看到。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Our next question comes from Edison at Deutsche Bank. Edison, please unmute yourself.

好的。我们的下一个问题来自德意志银行的 Edison。Edison，请取消静音。

Edison Yu

Hi. Thank you very much for the question. So I wanted to ask about the Optimus supply chain going forward. You mentioned very fast ramp up. What do you envision that supply chain looking like? Is it going to require many more suppliers to be in the US now because of the tariffs? How does one kind of think about what needs to happen there?

嗨。非常感谢提问。所以我想问一下关于 Optimus 未来供应链的问题。您提到了非常快速的产能爬坡。您设想那个供应链会是什么样子？由于关税的原因，现在是否会需要更多供应商在美国本土？对此应该如何考量需要采取的措施？

Elon Musk

Let’s see how things settle out. I don’t know yet. Right. I mean, so some things we’re doing as we’ve already talked about, which is that we’re already taking tremendous steps to localize our supply chain. We’re more localized than any other manufacturer, and we have a lot of things underway to increase the localization, to reduce supply chain risk associated with geopolitical uncertainty. Did you have a follow-up?

让我们看看情况如何发展。我现在还不知道。是的。我的意思是，正如我们已经讨论过的，我们正在做一些事情，那就是我们已经在采取重大措施来实现供应链本地化。我们比任何其他制造商都更加本地化，并且我们正在进行很多工作以提高本地化程度，减少与地缘政治不确定性相关的供应链风险。你还有后续问题吗？

Edison Yu

Yeah. Wanted to come back actually to the robotaxi then. Do you have a sense on how many cars or how big the scale will be initially and how that might ramp up? I know you’re targeting millions of vehicles in the second half kind of next year. But initially at launch, how many vehicles would be reasonable? And is it going to be as simple as if one goes to Austin, let’s say, in late June or July, you’d be able to request?

是的。实际上想回到 Robotaxi 的问题上来。您对最初会有多少辆车或规模有多大，以及之后可能如何扩大规模有概念吗？我知道你们的目标是明年下半年达到数百万辆。但在最初启动时，多少辆车是合理的？而且，比如说，如果有人在六月底或七月去奥斯汀，是否就能像那么简单地叫到车？

Elon Musk

Yeah. We’re still debating the exact number to start off on day one, but it’s, like, I don’t know, maybe 10 or 20 vehicles on day one. And watch it carefully. They scale it up rapidly after that. So, we want to make sure that you’re paying very close attention the first time this happens. But, yeah, you will be able to -- end of end of June or July, just go to Austin and order a Tesla for autonomous drive.

是的。我们仍在讨论第一天开始的确切数量，但大概，我不知道，也许第一天是 10 或 20 辆车。并且我们会密切关注。之后我们会迅速扩大规模。所以，我们想确保在首次运行时给予非常密切的关注。但是，是的，你将能够——在六月底或七月，就去奥斯汀，并预订一辆特斯拉进行自动驾驶。

Travis Axelrod

Great. The next question comes from George at Canaccord.

好的。下一个问题来自 Canaccord 的 George。

George Gianarikas

Hi, thank you for taking my question. It has to do with FSD pricing. Can we envision when you launch unsupervised FSD that there could be sort of a multi-tiered pricing approach to unsupervised versus supervised similar to what you did with autopilot versus FSD in the past? Thank you.

嗨，谢谢你接受我的提问。这与 FSD 定价有关。我们能否设想，当你们推出无监督 FSD 时，可能会有一种针对无监督与有监督的多层定价方法，类似于你们过去对 Autopilot 与 FSD 所做的那样？谢谢。

Vaibhav Taneja

I mean, this is something which we’ve been thinking about. I mean, just so you know, for people who have been trying FSD and who’ve been using FSD, they think given the current pricing is too cheap because for $99, we’re basically getting a personal show.

我的意思是，这是我们一直在考虑的事情。我的意思是，只是想让你们知道，对于那些一直在尝试 FSD 和使用 FSD 的人来说，他们认为目前的定价太便宜了，因为花 99 美元，我们基本上是得到了一个私人司机（注：原文 "personal show" 疑为 "personal chauffeur" 的口误）。

Elon Musk

Yeah. I mean, we do need to give people more time to like, they want to look at like, like, key breakpoint is, can you read your text messages or not? Yes. Can you write a text message or not? Because, obviously, people are doing this, by the way, with autonomous cars all the time. And if you just go over drive down the highway and you’ll see people texting while driving, you know, doing 80 miles an hour.

是的。我的意思是，我们确实需要给人们更多时间，比如，他们想关注的关键点是，你能不能读短信？是的。你能不能写短信？因为，很明显，顺便说一句，人们一直都在车里这样做。如果你开车上高速公路，你会看到人们一边开车一边发短信，你知道，时速 80 英里。

Unidentified Company Representative

未具名公司代表

And putting on makeup on at the same time.

同时还在化妆。

Elon Musk

Yeah. Putting on makeup, doing their hair with them mirror down and texting and driving at 80 miles an hour. This is a common occurrence. So, people eating lunch, you name it. Shaving. So, anyway, but right now, the car is very insistent that you pay attention to the road. So, which reduces the value somewhat because it’s very rigorous about you paying attention to the road. And we’ll gradually lighten up on that with every few weeks or every month, we’ll relax that a little bit, make up so you can be more and more able to do things you want to do and not have the car to manage your attention. So that that that value, it’ll really be profound when you can basically do whatever you want, including sleep or and then that $99 is going to seem like the best $99 you’ve ever spent in your life.

是的。化妆，放下遮阳板对着镜子弄头发，一边以 80 英里的时速开车一边发短信。这是常见现象。所以，人们吃午饭，你能想到的都有。刮胡子。所以，无论如何，但现在，车辆非常坚持要求你注意路况。所以，这在某种程度上降低了价值，因为它对你注意路况的要求非常严格。我们会每隔几周或每个月逐渐放宽这一点，我们会稍微放松一下，让你越来越能做你想做的事情，而不需要车辆来管理你的注意力。所以那个价值，当你基本上可以做任何你想做的事情，包括睡觉时，它将变得非常巨大，然后那 99 美元将会像是你一生中花得最值的 99 美元。

Travis Axelrod

Great. And, George, do you have a follow-up?

好的。George，你还有后续问题吗？

George Gianarikas

My follow-up is about geographic expansion. Just maybe discuss additional markets. There’s been some news around India recently that you could launch, this year and next. Thank you.

我的后续问题是关于地域扩张。能否讨论一下其他市场。最近有一些关于印度的消息，说你们可能在今年和明年（在那里）推出。谢谢。

Vaibhav Taneja

So, yeah, I mean, we we’ve been working on getting into India. India is a very hard market. And especially the current and I don’t want to talk just about tariffs, but the current tariff structure with India is that any car which we send in is subject to 70% tariff. Also, like, a 30% luxury tax on it. So, the same car which we’re selling is, like, 100% more expensive than what it is. So that creates a lot of, you know, anxiety. It’s like, people feel, okay, they’re paying too much for the car. And by the way, we’re not getting the money. The local government is getting the money. And that’s why we’ve been very careful trying to figure out when is the right time. We, like I said, we are working on it. It’s a great it would be a great market to enter because India has a big middle class, which we would want to tap in, and that is the market which we want to be in. But, again, these kind of things create a little bit of tension which we’re trying to work around.

所以，是的，我的意思是，我们一直在努力进入印度市场。印度是一个非常困难的市场。特别是当前的——我不想只谈关税，但印度目前的关税结构是，我们运送的任何汽车都要征收 70% 的关税。此外，还有大约 30% 的奢侈品税。所以，我们销售的同一款车，价格比（其他地方）贵了大约 100%。所以这造成了很多，你知道的，焦虑。就好像，人们觉得，好吧，他们为这辆车付了太多钱。顺便说一句，我们并没有拿到这笔钱。是当地政府拿到了这笔钱。这就是为什么我们一直非常谨慎地试图弄清楚何时是合适的时机。我们，正如我所说，正在为此努力。这是一个很棒的——这将是一个很棒的进入市场，因为印度有庞大的中产阶级，我们希望能够进入这个群体，这也是我们想要进入的市场。但是，再说一次，这类事情造成了一些紧张关系，我们正试图解决。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you so much. The next question comes from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley. Go ahead, Adam. We can’t hear you, Adam. So, maybe we’ll put you back in the queue, and we’ll move to Colin Langan from Wells Fargo, while Adam figures out his audio. Colin, please unmute yourself.

好的。非常感谢。下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Adam Jonas。Adam 请讲。我们听不到你说话，Adam。所以，也许我们先把你放回队列，我们转向富国银行的 Colin Langan，等 Adam 解决他的音频问题。Colin，请取消静音。

Colin Langan

Great. Do you hear me?

太好了。能听到我说话吗？

Travis Axelrod

Yes.

是的。

Colin Langan

You’re still sticking with division-only approach. A lot of autonomous people still have a lot of concerns about sun glare, fog, dust. Any color on how you anticipate on getting around those issues? Because of my understanding, it kind of blinds the camera when you get glare and stuff.

你们仍然坚持纯视觉方案（注：原文 "division-only" 疑为 "vision-only" 的口误）。许多自动驾驶领域的人仍然对阳光眩光、雾、灰尘有很多担忧。对于你们预计如何解决这些问题，有什么可以透露的吗？因为据我了解，当遇到眩光之类的东西时，它会有点让摄像头“失明”。

Elon Musk

Actually, it does not blind the camera. The we use an approach which is direct photon count. So when you see the -- a processed image, so the image that goes from the sort of photon counter, so the silicon photon counter that gets goes through a digital sig signal processor or image signal processor, that’s normally what happens. And then that that then the image that you see looks all washed out because if it’s, you point the camera at the sun, the post processing of the photon counting washes things out. It actually adds noise. So part of a breakthrough that we made some time ago was to go with direct photon counting and bypass the image signal processor. And that and then you can drive pretty much straight at the sun, and you can also see in what appears to be the blackest of night. And then here in fog, we can see as well as, like, people can, probably better, but I’d say probably slightly better than people, but than the average person anyway. And yeah.

实际上，它不会使摄像头失明。我们使用一种直接光子计数的方法。所以当你看到——一张处理过的图像，也就是从那种光子计数器，硅光子计数器，经过数字信号处理器或图像信号处理器出来的图像，通常是这样。然后你看到的图像就显得一片惨白，因为如果，你把摄像头对准太阳，光子计数的后处理会把东西洗掉。它实际上增加了噪音。所以我们不久前取得的一个突破就是采用直接光子计数并绕过图像信号处理器。这样你就可以几乎直对着太阳开车，你也可以在看似漆黑的夜晚看到东西。然后在雾天，我们也能看得和人一样清楚，可能更好，但我想说可能比一般人稍微好一点。是的。

Colin Langan

So the camera is able to see when there’s direct glare on it. I’m little surprised by that. Okay.

所以摄像头在有直接眩光照射时也能看见。我对此有点惊讶。好的。

Elon Musk

Yeah.

是的。

Colin Langan

Okay. And then just there are obviously media reports the other day that the affordable model was delayed. It doesn’t sound like that’s correct. Those reports also talked about it being more of a cheaper version of the Model Y. Any color on what we should expect? Is it a cheaper version of Model Y, or is it actually going to be a design change with it?

好的。然后，前几天显然有媒体报道说平价车型被推迟了。听起来这并不正确。那些报道还说它更像是 Model Y 的廉价版。我们应该期待什么？它是 Model Y 的廉价版，还是实际上会有设计上的改变？

Vaibhav Taneja

So I think Lars already covered it in answering one of the say.com cautions. The real thing which we are trying to focus on is affordability. And using our existing lines, there’s always limitations when you’re using existing lines as to how many different form factors can you bring to. So that’s the way I would say you should think about it. And I don’t know if Lars, anything more to add.

所以我想 Lars 在回答 say.com 的一个问题时已经谈到了。我们真正努力关注的是可负担性。而且使用我们现有的生产线，当你使用现有生产线时，能够引入多少种不同的外形规格总是有限制的。所以这就是我认为你应该思考的方式。我不知道 Lars 是否还有什么要补充的。

Lars Moravy

Yeah. And I think I said this before in other calls. Like, with the recent upgrades on the Model 3 and Model Y platforms, we made some pretty great cars at pretty great prices, and we added a bunch of features and things like that. I think it’s easy to consider that, moving forward, Tesla doesn’t make bad cars, and we always make, you know, our intent is not to make a car that is any worse than any car we’ve ever produced in the past. And so, models that come out in next months will be built on our lines and will resemble, in form and shape, the cars we currently make. And the key is that they’ll be affordable, and you’ll be able to buy one.

是的。我想我在之前的其他电话会议上也说过。就像，通过最近对 Model 3 和 Model Y 平台的升级，我们以非常优惠的价格制造了一些非常棒的汽车，并且我们增加了很多功能之类的东西。我认为很容易考虑到，未来，特斯拉不会制造糟糕的汽车，我们总是，你知道，我们的意图不是制造比我们过去生产过的任何汽车都差的汽车。因此，未来几个月推出的车型将在我们的生产线上制造，并且在形式和形状上将类似于我们目前制造的汽车。关键在于它们将是负担得起的，而且你将能够买到一辆。

Travis Axelrod

Great. We might have time for one last question. Adam, we’ll try your audio again. You want to try to unmute yourself, Adam? All right. Unfortunately, it’s still not working. There you go.

好的。我们可能还有时间问最后一个问题。Adam，我们再试试你的音频。你想尝试取消静音吗，Adam？好吧。不幸的是，还是不行。好了。

Adam Jonas

Sorry, guys. Technology.

抱歉，各位。技术问题。

Travis Axelrod

Go ahead, Adam

请说，Adam。

Adam Jonas

Yeah. Hi. Yeah. In the February 28 Joe Rogan interview, Elon, you advocated for a ramp in tariffs, to give people time to adjust. Otherwise, quote, you said the system would break, and bad things would happen. So are things breaking yet? And if the announced -- as if the tariffs as announced remain in place, when would things start breaking?

是的。嗨。是的。在 2 月 28 日的 Joe Rogan 访谈中，埃隆，你主张逐步提高关税，给人们时间调整。否则，引用你的话说，系统会崩溃，坏事会发生。那么现在情况开始崩溃了吗？如果宣布的——如果已宣布的关税保持不变，情况何时会开始崩溃？

Elon Musk

Well, at the risk of stating the obvious, I’m not -- I’m one of many advisors to the President, I am not the President. So, and -- but I made my opinion clear to the president and that -- and other people made their opinion clear to the President. He is the -- he listened -- he talks to many people, and he makes his decision. And, I’m hopeful that the President will observe whether my predictions are more accurate than the predictions of others and perhaps weigh my advice differently in the future. We shall see. But, I’m an advocate of predictable tariff structures and generally, I’m an advocate for free trade and lower tariffs. But now, one does need to take a look at where -- if some country is doing something predatory with tariffs or is providing extreme support for -- if a government is providing extreme financial support for a particular industry, then you have to do something to counteract that. So, but I think that’s on a case by case basis strategically. But, the President is the elected representative of the people and his fully within his rights to do what he would like to do.

嗯，恕我直言，我不是——我是总统的众多顾问之一，我不是总统。所以，而且——但我已经向总统明确表达了我的观点，而且——其他人也向总统明确表达了他们的观点。他是——他听取了——他与许多人交谈，然后做出他的决定。而且，我希望总统会观察我的预测是否比其他人的预测更准确，并可能在未来不同地衡量我的建议。我们将拭目以待。但是，我主张可预测的关税结构，总的来说，我主张自由贸易和降低关税。但是现在，确实需要审视一下——如果某个国家在关税方面采取掠夺性行为，或者为——如果一个政府为某个特定行业提供极大的财政支持，那么你就必须采取措施来抵消这种情况。所以，但我认为这需要在战略上逐案分析。但是，总统是人民选出的代表，他完全有权做他想做的事情。

Adam Jonas

Okay, Elon. I respect that. Just as just as a follow-up, and thanks again. Between China and the United States, who in your opinion is further ahead on the development of physical AI, specifically on humanoids, and also drones? I’d be interested in. And is it even close and kind of how, yeah seriously.

好的，埃隆。我尊重这一点。只是作为一个后续问题，再次感谢。在你看来，中国和美国之间，谁在实体人工智能的发展上更领先，特别是在人形机器人和无人机方面？我很感兴趣。差距是否接近，以及程度如何，是的，我是认真的。

Elon Musk

I think you know the answer for drones. I mean a friend of mine, Naval, made this posted on X. I reposted it. But I think a prophetic statement, which is any country that cannot manufacture its own drones is doomed to be the vassal state of any country that can. And we can’t America cannot currently manufacture its own drones. But that’s again, unfortunately. So, China, I believe, manufactures about 70% of all drones. And if you look at the total supply chain, China is almost a 100% of drones, are have a supply chain dependency on China. So, China is in a very strong position. And, here in America, and we need to shift more of our people and resources to manufacturing because this is and I have a lot of respect for China because I think China is amazing, actually. But the United States should not have such a severe dependency on China for drones and be unable to make them unless China gives us the parts, which is currently the situation. With respect to humanoid robots, I don’t think there’s any company in any country that can match Tesla. Tesla and SpaceX are number one. So, and then now I’m a little concerned that on the leaderboard, ranks two through 10 will be Chinese companies. But I’m confident that rank one will be Tesla.

我想你知道无人机的答案。我的意思是我的一个朋友 Naval 在 X 上发了这个帖子。我转发了。但我认为这是一个预言性的声明，那就是任何不能制造自己无人机的国家注定会成为任何能够制造无人机的国家的附庸国。而我们不能——美国目前无法制造自己的无人机。但这又是不幸的。所以，我相信中国制造了大约 70% 的所有无人机。如果你看整个供应链，中国几乎是 100% 的无人机，都对中国有供应链依赖。所以，中国处于非常有利的地位。而且，在美国这里，我们需要将更多的人力和资源转移到制造业，因为这是——而且我非常尊重中国，因为我认为中国实际上很了不起。但是美国不应该在无人机方面对中国有如此严重的依赖，并且除非中国给我们零件，否则就无法制造它们，这就是目前的情况。关于人形机器人，我认为在任何国家都没有任何公司能与特斯拉匹敌。特斯拉和 SpaceX 是第一名。所以，然后现在我有点担心在排行榜上，第二到第十名将是中国公司。但我有信心第一名将是特斯拉。

Travis Axelrod

Great. Well, I think that’s unfortunately all the time we have for today. We appreciate all your questions and look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much, and goodbye.

好的。嗯，我想不幸的是，这就是我们今天所有的时间了。我们感谢大家的所有问题，并期待下个季度与大家交流。非常感谢，再见。